Companion 2.2a · Report

Negative partisanship

Among ANES partisans in 2012 to 2024, each 10 points of coldness toward the other party went with 3.5 points more own-party House voting, against 1.9 points for the same warmth toward the own party.

Author: Vishal Singh
Affiliation: NYU Stern
Published: 3 October 2026

Every estimate of the chapter with its interval and every figure as a table, generated from the chapter's data files. Table n of this report is figure n of the chapter. The same report as Markdown: report.md.

Identification

Title

Negative partisanship

Chapter

Companion 2.2a (Part II, Change and partisan feeling; Labels, sorting and partisan feeling)

Question

Does dislike of the other party now organize partisan behavior more than attachment to one's own?

Dek

Among ANES partisans in 2012 to 2024, each 10 points of coldness toward the other party went with 3.5 points more own-party House voting, against 1.9 points for the same warmth toward the own party.

Grain

individuals

Status

draft

Published

3 October 2026

Updated

not revised

Data sources

ANES Cumulative Data File. Cumulative Data File 1948-2024: party thermometers 1978-2024; presidential vote VCF0704, House vote VCF0707, ticket splitting VCF0709, turnout VCF0702 and campaign activity VCF0717 to VCF0721; the 0 to 10 like-dislike scale for each party in seven studies from 1996; years: 1948-2024 (33 study years; even years only after 2004; no 2006, 2010 or 2014 study); weights: weight (VCF0009z); weight_ftf and weight_web (VCF0009x, VCF0009y) for mode-specific estimates in 2012, 2016 and 2024
County election returns. County presidential returns 2020 and 2024, Alaska excluded: the Democratic share of the two-party vote, used only to set beside the ANES self-reported vote; years: President 1868-2024 (40 elections); House and Senate 1990-2024; weights: none (full counts)

Canonical URL

https://vishalsingh.org/politics/negative-partisanship

Markdown

https://vishalsingh.org/politics/negative-partisanship/report.md

BibTeX

@misc{singh2026negativepartisanship,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Negative partisanship},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/negative-partisanship},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 3 October 2026.}
}

Principal estimates

The facts the dek and the opening prose cite, in order of appearance. Every fact is in the table of all estimates below.

Estimand	Population	Period	Value	Interval	n	Weights	Source	Fact id
size of the change in a rating that a coefficient describes (a definition, not an estimate)	the unit in which coefficients are reported	1978 to 2024	10			none (constant)	ANES Cumulative Data File	step
coldness toward the other party on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024	3.5	95% CI 3.1 to 3.9	13,912	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File	house_cold_3
warmth toward the own party on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024	1.9	95% CI 1.5 to 2.3	13,912	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File	house_warm_3
coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024	1.6	95% CI 1.0 to 2.1	13,912	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File	house_diff_3
coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012 to 2024	1.6	95% CI 1.0 to 2.2	18,976	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File	turnout_diff_3
coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	2012 to 2024	1.5	95% CI 0.8 to 2.3	18,697	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File	act_any_diff_3
coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024	0.7	95% CI 0.3 to 1.2	15,612	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File	pres_diff_3
coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	1978 to 1990	0.0	95% CI −0.8 to 0.9	5,930	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File	house_diff_1
coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	1978 to 1990	0.0	95% CI −0.7 to 0.7	10,606	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File	act_any_diff_1
change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	2.6	95% CI 1.7 to 3.6		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File	turnout_chg
change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only	2.0	95% CI 0.8 to 3.3		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File	turnout_chg_p
change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews minus 1978 to 1990	3.5	95% CI 2.0 to 4.9		weight_ftf (VCF0009x)	ANES Cumulative Data File	turnout_chg_ftf
change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews minus 1978 to 1990	2.3	95% CI 1.2 to 3.5		weight_web (VCF0009y)	ANES Cumulative Data File	turnout_chg_web
count of respondents in the sample	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	18 surveys, 1978 to 2024	43,063			none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File	n_resp
count of survey years	ANES time-series studies with both party thermometers	1978 to 2024	18			none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File	n_waves
lowest answer the feeling thermometer allows (a definition of the scale, not an estimate)	answers to the feeling thermometer	1978 to 2024	0			none (constant)	ANES Cumulative Data File	therm_min
highest answer the feeling thermometer allows (a definition of the scale, not an estimate)	answers to the feeling thermometer	1978 to 2024	100			none (constant)	ANES Cumulative Data File	therm_max
weighted share who lean toward a party and do not identify with it	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	2012 to 2024	27%			weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File	leaner_share_3
weighted share who lean toward a party and do not identify with it	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	1978 to 1990	27%			weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File	leaner_share_1
share of the sample interviewed in a midterm election year (respondent count)	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	1978 to 1990	56%		11,264	none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File	midterm_share_1
share of the sample interviewed in a midterm election year (respondent count)	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	1992 to 2008	25%		10,856	none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File	midterm_share_2

Findings

Among Democrats and Republicans (leaners included) in the American National Election Studies (ANES) of 2012 to 2024, a rating of the other party 10 points colder on the feeling thermometer went with 3.5 (95% CI 3.1 to 3.9) points more own-party House voting, with the rating of the own party held fixed. A rating of the own party 10 points warmer went with 1.9 (95% CI 1.5 to 2.3) points, with the rating of the other party held fixed. That comparison of recent levels, a larger coefficient on coldness toward the other party than on warmth toward the own party, is the chapter's principal result. This chapter calls coldness minus warmth the per-point difference. It was 1.6 (95% CI 1.0 to 2.1) points for House voting, 1.6 (95% CI 1.0 to 2.2) for reported turnout and 1.5 (95% CI 0.8 to 2.3) for campaign activity in 2012 to 2024, and 0.7 (95% CI 0.3 to 1.2) for party-line presidential voting.

Whether the difference is new is a second question, and the answer depends on the comparison. In 1978 to 1990 the per-point difference was 0.0 (95% CI −0.8 to 0.9) for House voting and 0.0 (95% CI −0.7 to 0.7) for campaign activity. Only for reported turnout is the change since then above zero under every measure the chapter uses, in presidential years alone and within each interview mode, at 2.6 (95% CI 1.7 to 3.6) points in all interviews, 2.0 (95% CI 0.8 to 3.3) in presidential years alone, 3.5 (95% CI 2.0 to 4.9) face to face and 2.3 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.5) on the web. The changes for House voting and campaign activity are above zero in all interviews and include zero in presidential years alone and within each mode, and the cut-off measures disagree with the per-point measure about presidential voting.

These are comparisons of how feelings and behavior go together, so the chapter says "went with". Both are measured in the same survey, so either may shape the other, and both may follow from traits that the survey measures only in part, such as interest in politics or the strength of party identification.

The ratings and the behavior come from the ANES Cumulative Data File: 43,063 respondents in 18 surveys from 1978 to 2024 who identify with a party or lean toward one and rated both parties on a scale from 0 to 100. Pure independents are left out because they have no own party. Leaners count as partisans throughout, as in Chapter 2.2, Feelings toward the other party, and they are 27% of partisans in 2012 to 2024 and 27% in 1978 to 1990; a check below drops them. Warmth is the rating of the own party. Coldness is 100 minus the rating of the other party, so that a higher value is colder and the two coefficients can be set side by side. Five behaviors follow. Party-line presidential voting is a vote for the own party's candidate among partisans who reported voting for a major-party candidate, and defection is its complement. Party-line House voting is the same for the House candidate. A straight-ticket vote is a vote for one party for president and the House, the complement of ticket splitting. Reported turnout is the report of having voted. Campaign activity is a yes to at least one of these: tried to persuade others how to vote, attended a meeting or rally, worked for a party or candidate, displayed a button or sticker, or gave money. All of these behaviors are self-reports. Presidential voting and the straight ticket exist only in presidential election years. The other three also exist in midterm years, which are 56% of the respondents in 1978 to 1990, 25% in 1992 to 2008 and none in 2012 to 2024, so a comparison of those three across periods mixes the period with the election type.Estimates use the ANES full-sample weight. Coefficients come from weighted linear probability models with year fixed effects, and their intervals use HC3 robust standard errors [1]. Shares of groups use the Wilson interval [2] on the Kish effective sample size [3]. All intervals treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample and ignore the ANES strata and clusters.

Abramowitz and Webster use ANES ratings of parties and candidates to argue that increasingly negative feelings among party supporters, leaners included, about the opposing party have led to more party loyalty and more straight-ticket voting [4] [5]. A study of Canada reports that negative partisan attitudes influence turnout and a range of political activities as well as vote choice [6], a study of elections in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States reports an autonomous influence of negative party identification [7], and a study of the 2016 American election examines negative and positive partisanship together [8]. This chapter asks the question of the ANES behavior items from 1978 to 2024: holding the rating of the own party fixed, is behavior more closely tied to the rating of the other party, and when did that start? The trend in the ratings themselves is in Chapter 2.2, Feelings toward the other party, the comparison of emotional distance with distance on issues is in Planned, Affective and issue polarization (planned), and feelings toward social groups are in Planned, Party and feelings toward social groups (planned).

Cold-only partisans now outnumber warm-only partisans

The group comparisons sort partisans by two cut-offs. A partisan is very cold toward the other party when the rating of that party is at or below 15, and very warm toward the own party when the rating of the own party is at or above 85. A looser pair, 30 and 70, serves as a check. Four groups follow: neither, warm only, cold only and both.

Table 1 gives the size of the four groups. In 1978 to 1990, 32.0% of partisans were warm only and 4.4% were cold only. In 2012 to 2024 the shares were 10.5% and 28.1%, and 25.2% were both. Cold only is also larger than warm only within each interview mode in 2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled: 19.5% (95% CI 17.8% to 21.2%) against 13.5% (95% CI 12.1% to 15.0%) face to face and 29.1% (95% CI 27.8% to 30.4%) against 11.0% (95% CI 10.1% to 11.9%) on the web. The average rating, the share rating the other party at zero and the mode checks on both belong to Chapter 2.2, Feelings toward the other party.

Table 1. Partisans very cold toward the other party only went from 4.4% of partisans in 1978 to 1990 to 28.1% in 2012 to 2024, and partisans very warm toward their own party only went from 32.0% to 10.5%

Cold-only partisans voted the party line more often than warm-only partisans

Table 2 compares the two groups that differ on one condition. Among partisans who voted for a major-party presidential candidate in 2012 to 2024, 98.1% (95% CI 97.5% to 98.5%) of those cold only voted for their own party's candidate, against 95.4% (95% CI 93.8% to 96.6%) of those warm only, 83.2% of those in neither group and 99.2% of those in both. Cold only minus warm only was 2.6 (95% CI 1.2 to 4.1) points in 2012 to 2024 and 6.0 (95% CI 2.3 to 9.6) in 1978 to 1990, so the very cold voted the party line more often in both periods, and the interval excludes zero in each. The gap is smaller in the later period, when party-line voting was higher everywhere: the share voting the party line among all partisans who voted for a major-party candidate was 85.9% in 1978 to 1990 and 93.3% in 2012 to 2024.

Table 2. Partisans very cold toward the other party only voted for their own party's presidential candidate more often than those very warm toward their own party only in each period, at 98.1% against 95.4% in 2012 to 2024

Cold only is above warm only in all three periods for House voting as well, where cold only minus warm only was 10.1 (95% CI 5.9 to 14.2) points in 1978 to 1990 and 5.1 (95% CI 2.7 to 7.4) in 2012 to 2024, and for the straight ticket, at 11.7 (95% CI 5.0 to 18.4) and 4.6 (95% CI 2.2 to 6.9). The House gap fell by −5.0 (95% CI −9.8 to −0.3) points. Unlike presidential voting, in 1978 to 1990 the both group is not above cold only for either: 89.1% against 89.9% for House voting and 87.3% against 88.6% for the straight ticket. Reported turnout and campaign activity differ. In 1978 to 1990 warm-only partisans reported voting more often than cold-only partisans, with a difference of −5.5 (95% CI −10.1 to −0.8) points, and in 2012 to 2024 cold-only partisans reported it more often, by 5.7 (95% CI 3.2 to 8.3). For campaign activity the difference was 3.5 (95% CI −1.3 to 8.3) in 1978 to 1990, an interval that includes zero, and 5.4 (95% CI 2.0 to 8.9) in 2012 to 2024. For House voting, reported turnout and campaign activity the 1978 to 1990 cells include the midterm studies.

The cold-only group was a small part of the partisans in 1978 to 1990, so its shares carry wide intervals, and the groups say nothing about partisans between the cut-offs, which the next section uses.

Per rating point, coldness goes with more of each behavior in 2012 to 2024

A group comparison discards the variation inside each group. For each behavior and period, Table 3 uses the whole rating. It reports the coefficients on coldness and warmth from one linear probability model, in points of the behavior per 10 points of rating, with each rating held fixed when the other is estimated. The correlation between the own-party rating and the other-party rating, each centered on its survey year, was −0.06 (95% CI −0.08 to −0.04) in 1978 to 1990 and −0.23 (95% CI −0.25 to −0.21) in 2012 to 2024, so the two feelings are now more closely tied.

Table 3. Per rating point, coldness toward the other party went with more House voting, reported turnout and campaign activity than warmth toward the own party did in 2012 to 2024, while in 1978 to 1990 the two went with similar amounts of House voting and campaign activity

In 2012 to 2024 the coefficient on coldness exceeds the coefficient on warmth for all five behaviors. The per-point difference is 1.6 (95% CI 1.0 to 2.1) points for House voting, 1.6 (95% CI 1.0 to 2.2) for reported turnout, 1.5 (95% CI 0.8 to 2.3) for campaign activity, 1.3 (95% CI 0.8 to 1.9) for the straight ticket and 0.7 (95% CI 0.3 to 1.2) for presidential voting, and every interval is above zero. That period includes 2020, which has no mode weights. In 2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled the presidential difference is 0.54 (95% CI −0.05 to 1.12), an interval that includes zero, and the other four stay above zero, with campaign activity at 1.14 (95% CI 0.23 to 2.05).

In 1978 to 1990 the difference had an interval that included zero for four behaviors: 0.0 (95% CI −0.8 to 0.9) for House voting, 0.0 (95% CI −0.7 to 0.7) for campaign activity, 0.8 (95% CI −0.5 to 2.1) for the straight ticket and −0.1 (95% CI −1.1 to 0.9) for presidential voting. Reported turnout is the exception, at −1.1 (95% CI −1.8 to −0.4) points, so warmth toward the own party went with more reported turnout than coldness toward the other party did. That result comes from the midterm studies: the difference was −1.5 (95% CI −2.4 to −0.5) in 1978, 1982, 1986 and 1990 and −0.5 (95% CI −1.5 to 0.6) in 1980, 1984 and 1988, an interval that includes zero. For House voting and campaign activity the presidential years alone also include zero, at 0.2 (95% CI −1.0 to 1.5) and 0.3 (95% CI −0.8 to 1.4).

The middle period separates the behaviors. In 1992 to 2008 the difference for reported turnout was 1.1 (95% CI 0.3 to 1.9) and for campaign activity 1.7 (95% CI 0.9 to 2.5), both above zero, while the differences for House voting (0.2 (95% CI −0.6 to 1.1)) and presidential voting (−0.4 (95% CI −1.1 to 0.4)) still included zero. The edge for coldness reached participation first and party-line voting later.

The yearly differences are noisy, and 2020 stands out

Table 4 fits the same model to one survey at a time. The yearly differences scatter around zero before the 1990s. The interval lies above zero in 14 of 78 yearly estimates, all from 1992 on, and below zero in 3, all before 1998. In 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 the point estimate is above zero in every panel.

Table 4. The edge of coldness over warmth rose by 0.3 to 0.5 points per decade for presidential voting, House voting and reported turnout, with intervals above zero, and the yearly estimates are too noisy to date the rise

A model that lets each coefficient change linearly with time summarizes the movement. The coldness-minus-warmth difference rose by 0.5 (95% CI 0.3 to 0.8) points per decade for reported turnout, 0.5 (95% CI 0.2 to 0.7) for House voting and 0.3 (95% CI 0.1 to 0.6) for presidential voting, with intervals above zero. For the straight ticket the rise was 0.2 (95% CI −0.1 to 0.6), an interval that includes zero, and for campaign activity 0.3 (95% CI 0.0 to 0.6), an interval whose lower end reaches zero at one decimal. Fitted to presidential years alone, the rise is 0.5 (95% CI 0.1 to 0.8) for House voting, an interval above zero, and 0.3 for reported turnout, an interval whose lower end is just below zero. The yearly estimates are too wide to say whether the rise was gradual or sudden.

The 2020 survey is the only one in which the interval is above zero in all five panels. In 2024 the point estimate is lower than in 2020 in every panel and every interval includes zero: 2.3 (95% CI 1.3 to 3.3) in 2020 and 0.6 (95% CI −0.5 to 1.7) in 2024 for House voting, and 2.4 (95% CI 1.0 to 3.7) and 0.4 (95% CI −1.3 to 2.1) for campaign activity. The 2020 study has no mode weights and the 2024 sample mixes new face-to-face, new web and panel respondents, so the figure cannot say whether the lower 2024 estimates reflect a change in feelings or in who was interviewed.

Face-to-face and web respondents show the same sign

The 2012 to 2024 sample mixes interview modes, and web respondents are more often cold only than face-to-face respondents (Table 1). Table 5 restricts the sample to 2012, 2016 and 2024, the years with mode weights, and estimates each mode alone. In both modes the per-point difference is positive for all five behaviors. For House voting it is 1.5 (95% CI 0.2 to 2.9) points face to face and 1.2 (95% CI 0.4 to 2.1) on the web. For reported turnout it is 2.4 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.7) and 1.3 (95% CI 0.3 to 2.2), with intervals above zero in both modes. For campaign activity it is 1.6 (95% CI −0.1 to 3.2) and 1.1 (95% CI −0.1 to 2.2), and for presidential voting 0.9 (95% CI −0.4 to 2.3) and 0.5 (95% CI −0.2 to 1.1), with intervals that include zero in both modes for both behaviors.

Table 5. In 2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled, the coldness-minus-warmth difference has the same sign in face-to-face and web interviews for all five behaviors, and the two intervals overlap in every row

Only the turnout change holds in presidential years and within each mode

Table 6 sets the 2012 to 2024 per-point difference against the 1978 to 1990 difference. In all interviews the change was 2.6 (95% CI 1.7 to 3.6) points for reported turnout, 1.5 (95% CI 0.5 to 2.5) for House voting and 1.5 (95% CI 0.5 to 2.5) for campaign activity, with intervals above zero, and 0.8 (95% CI −0.2 to 1.9) for presidential voting and 0.6 (95% CI −0.8 to 2.0) for the straight ticket, with intervals that include zero. The interval for the presidential change reaches 1.9 points, more than the House point estimate, so the data cannot rule out a presidential change of that size.

Two comparisons narrow the list. The first holds election type fixed by setting 2012 to 2024 against 1980, 1984 and 1988 alone. Reported turnout changed by 2.0 (95% CI 0.8 to 3.3) points, still above zero, while House voting changed by 1.3 and campaign activity by 1.3 (95% CI −0.1 to 2.6), intervals that include zero. The second holds interview mode fixed. The 1978 to 1990 studies were interviewed mainly in person, so the face-to-face estimate is the closer like-for-like comparison. Among face-to-face respondents in 2012, 2016 and 2024 reported turnout changed by 3.5 (95% CI 2.0 to 4.9) points and among web respondents by 2.3 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.5), both above zero, and both stay above zero against the presidential years alone (2.9 (95% CI 1.2 to 4.5) and 1.7 (95% CI 0.3 to 3.1)). House voting changed by 1.5 (95% CI −0.1 to 3.1) face to face and 1.2 on the web, and campaign activity by 1.5 (95% CI −0.2 to 3.3) and 1.0 (95% CI −0.3 to 2.4), and those intervals include zero or reach it.

Table 6. Per rating point, the change since 1978 to 1990 in the difference between coldness and warmth is above zero for reported turnout in all interviews, in presidential years alone and within each interview mode, and for House voting and campaign activity only in all interviews

Party-line voting also rose over these years, which compresses any coefficient on the probability scale. The share voting the party line was 77.1% for the House in 1978 to 1990 and 90.0% in 2012 to 2024, and 85.9% and 93.3% for the presidency. The log-odds views of Table 6 repeat the change on a scale where a constant proportional association gives a constant coefficient. On that scale the presidential difference was 0.09 (95% CI 0.01 to 0.17) in 1978 to 1990 and 0.08 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.14) in 2012 to 2024, a change of −0.01 (95% CI −0.11 to 0.09). Coldness went with more presidential voting than warmth in both periods, and the data show no change. The House change is 0.11 (95% CI 0.04 to 0.18) in all interviews and 0.10 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.19) in presidential years alone, both above zero, and 0.16 (95% CI 0.00 to 0.31) face to face and 0.08 (95% CI −0.01 to 0.18) on the web. For campaign activity it is 0.06 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.11) in all interviews and 0.05 (95% CI 0.00 to 0.11) in presidential years alone, an interval that reaches zero.

The coldness edge comes from different coefficients for votes and participation

The difference can rise because the coldness coefficient rises, because the warmth coefficient falls, or both. Interacting each coefficient with time separates them. For the three vote behaviors the warmth coefficient fell, by −0.4 (95% CI −0.6 to −0.2) points per decade for presidential voting, −0.4 (95% CI −0.5 to −0.2) for House voting and −0.4 (95% CI −0.6 to −0.2) for the straight ticket, while the coldness coefficient changed by −0.1 (95% CI −0.3 to 0.1), 0.1 (95% CI −0.1 to 0.3) and −0.2 (95% CI −0.4 to 0.0), all with intervals that include zero. For reported turnout the coldness coefficient rose, by 0.2 (95% CI 0.1 to 0.4) points per decade, as the warmth coefficient fell, by −0.3 (95% CI −0.5 to −0.1). For campaign activity the coldness coefficient rose by 0.4 (95% CI 0.2 to 0.6) and the warmth coefficient changed by 0.1 (95% CI −0.1 to 0.3), an interval that includes zero. In votes the association of warmth weakened and that of coldness held; in reported turnout and campaign activity the association with coldness grew.

The recent sign holds under other measures, and the change does not

The group comparison and the per-point comparison disagree about the 1980s, and Table 7 shows that the measure matters. In 2012 to 2024 the coefficient on coldness exceeds the coefficient on warmth for all five behaviors under the four measures the figure defines, and all 20 intervals are above zero. In 1978 to 1990 the measures disagree, and 12 of the 20 intervals include zero. The cut-off versions put the difference for House voting at 5.6 (95% CI 1.9 to 9.2) points and for the straight ticket at 7.2 (95% CI 1.6 to 12.8) in 1978 to 1990, above zero, as the group comparison above did, while the per-point difference is 0.0 (95% CI −0.8 to 0.9) and 0.8 (95% CI −0.5 to 2.1).

The change since 1978 to 1990 also depends on the measure: 12 of the 20 change intervals are above zero, and which behaviors they cover differs by measure. Presidential voting changed by 6.1 (95% CI 2.5 to 9.7) points at the first pair of cut-offs and 8.4 (95% CI 4.0 to 12.8) at the looser pair, both above zero, against 0.8 (95% CI −0.2 to 1.9) per point and 0.4 (95% CI −1.7 to 2.6) per standard deviation, both including zero. House voting changed by 2.7 (95% CI −1.4 to 6.8) at the first pair, an interval that includes zero, and 4.29 (95% CI 0.03 to 8.55) at the looser pair. The straight ticket changed by −0.3 (95% CI −6.2 to 5.7) and −2.5 (95% CI −8.5 to 3.5), both including zero. Reported turnout is above zero under all four measures, at 5.0 (95% CI 3.2 to 6.8) per standard deviation, 10.1 (95% CI 5.9 to 14.3) at the first pair and 9.1 (95% CI 5.2 to 13.1) at the looser pair. The group comparison sides with the measures that show no growth for votes, because the gap between cold only and warm only fell for House voting and for the straight ticket (−5.0 (95% CI −9.8 to −0.3) and −7.1 (95% CI −14.2 to 0.0) points) and rose for reported turnout (11.2 (95% CI 5.9 to 16.5)).

Table 7. In 2012 to 2024 the coldness coefficient exceeds the warmth coefficient for all five behaviors under each of four measures, every one of the 20 intervals lies above zero, and the measures disagree about the change since 1978 to 1990

Table 8 adds five checks for 2012 to 2024. Counting leaners as partisans is a choice, and dropping them leaves the differences positive and narrower: 0.3 (95% CI −0.3 to 0.9) for presidential voting and 0.7 (95% CI −0.1 to 1.4) for House voting, both with intervals that include zero, and 1.5 (95% CI 0.8 to 2.2) for reported turnout, 0.8 (95% CI 0.1 to 1.4) for the straight ticket and 1.2 (95% CI 0.2 to 2.2) for campaign activity, above zero. For the two vote items the edge for coldness depends partly on counting leaners. Holding party, strength of identification, education, age and interest in the campaign fixed leaves the presidential difference at 0.6 (95% CI 0.1 to 1.1) and the House difference at 1.2 (95% CI 0.6 to 1.9). Fitting each rating in its own model gives 0.5 (95% CI 0.1 to 0.9) and 1.2 (95% CI 0.7 to 1.6). On the log-odds scale every difference is above zero. On the like-dislike scale for each party, asked in 7 studies from 1996, the presidential difference is 0.3 (95% CI −0.2 to 0.8) and the turnout difference 0.3 (95% CI −0.4 to 0.9), both with intervals that include zero, while House voting, the straight ticket and campaign activity stay above zero. Across the 25 cells of Table 8 every difference is positive and 21 have an interval above zero.

Table 8. In 2012 to 2024 the difference between coldness and warmth is positive in all 25 cells of five further checks, with an interval above zero in 21

In 2012 to 2024, coldness goes with persuading others and giving money

The campaign activities differ. Table 9 splits the activity index into its items. In 2012 to 2024 the coefficient on coldness exceeds the coefficient on warmth for trying to persuade others, by 1.9 (95% CI 1.1 to 2.6) points, and for giving money, by 1.9 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.4). Attending a meeting (0.3 (95% CI −0.1 to 0.7)) and working for a party or candidate (0.3 (95% CI 0.0 to 0.7)) show smaller differences, with the second interval close to zero. Displaying a button or sticker shows none, at −0.1 (95% CI −0.7 to 0.4), and in 1978 to 1990 warmth led for that item, at −0.5 (95% CI −0.9 to −0.1).

Table 9. In 2012 to 2024 coldness went with more persuading others and giving money than warmth did, and the two went with similar amounts of displaying a button

What these data cannot show

The comparison is between two feelings measured in the same survey as the behavior. A respondent who voted for a party's candidate may rate that party warmer afterward, and a respondent who dislikes the other party may be more willing to say that they voted or took part, so the coefficients cannot say which way the association runs. Interest in politics, strength of party identification, ideology and age may each raise warmth, coldness and behavior together. The checks hold a few of them fixed and do not hold ideology or issue positions fixed. Ratings of the parties may also reflect feelings about party elites more than about other citizens [9], and the party rating is not the rating of the presidential nominee, which goes with the presidential vote and is studied in Chapter 2.2, Feelings toward the other party.

The behaviors are reports. Validation against public records finds that survey respondents consistently overreport voting and that the nonvoters who say they voted tend to be politically engaged [10]. The file has no validated-vote variable, so the turnout results describe respondents who say they voted, and overreporting that is concentrated among engaged partisans could change the comparison of coldness and warmth. The self-reported vote also leans Democratic: among respondents who reported a major-party presidential vote, 56.0% reported a Democratic vote in 2020 and 55.3% in 2024, against 52.3% and 49.3% of the two-party vote in county returns, Alaska excluded. The party-line measures compare each partisan with the own party's candidate, so they are less exposed to that lean than a vote share is. The vote items cover only partisans who reported voting for a major-party candidate, so partisans who stayed home or chose a third-party candidate, among whom coldness toward both parties may be common, are outside them. Party-line voting is near its ceiling in recent years, which limits how much any coefficient can show, and the log-odds check addresses scale and not selection.

The results come from repeated cross-sections, so they cannot show that any partisan grew colder or that any partisan's behavior changed as feelings changed. A panel that follows the same people is needed for that, and the ANES 2016, 2020 and 2024 panel is not in the files used here. The three periods were fixed before estimation, but their boundaries are a choice, and the per-decade slope and the yearly figure are there so that the result does not rest on them alone. The periods also differ in election type, and the presidential-years comparisons use three early studies. The 2012 to 2024 sample includes 2020, which has no mode weights, so the mode comparison covers 2012, 2016 and 2024 only. The intervals are model based and ignore the ANES sampling design. The chapter reports five behaviors, three periods and several measures without adjusting for multiple comparisons, so an interval that excludes zero in one cell is weaker evidence than it looks. What the ratings go with in views about political violence and democratic norms belongs to Chapter 5.4, Political violence and democratic norms, and who turns out to vote belongs to Chapter 3.1, Turnout.

Tables

Table 1. Partisans very cold toward the other party only went from 4.4% of partisans in 1978 to 1990 to 28.1% in 2012 to 2024, and partisans very warm toward their own party only went from 32.0% to 10.5%

Share of partisans, leaners included, in each of four groups defined by rating the other party at or below 15 (cold) and their own party at or above 85 (warm) on the 0 to 100 feeling thermometer, three periods and two interview modes

conf_high	conf_low	cut	estimate	group	n	sample
55.57	53.73	strict	54.65	Neither	11,264	1978 to 1990
32.90	31.18	strict	32.03	Warm only	11,264	1978 to 1990
4.81	4.05	strict	4.41	Cold only	11,264	1978 to 1990
9.44	8.39	strict	8.90	Both	11,264	1978 to 1990
58.11	56.03	strict	57.07	Neither	10,856	1992 to 2008
23.87	22.10	strict	22.98	Warm only	10,856	1992 to 2008
9.36	8.17	strict	8.75	Cold only	10,856	1992 to 2008
11.89	10.56	strict	11.21	Both	10,856	1992 to 2008
37.08	35.31	strict	36.19	Neither	20,943	2012 to 2024
11.07	9.95	strict	10.50	Warm only	20,943	2012 to 2024
28.93	27.28	strict	28.10	Cold only	20,943	2012 to 2024
26.02	24.43	strict	25.21	Both	20,943	2012 to 2024
28.61	26.96	loose	27.78	Neither	11,264	1978 to 1990
49.67	47.83	loose	48.75	Warm only	11,264	1978 to 1990
5.12	4.34	loose	4.71	Cold only	11,264	1978 to 1990
19.49	18.05	loose	18.76	Both	11,264	1978 to 1990
28.24	26.37	loose	27.30	Neither	10,856	1992 to 2008
38.74	36.70	loose	37.71	Warm only	10,856	1992 to 2008
10.01	8.79	loose	9.38	Cold only	10,856	1992 to 2008
26.53	24.70	loose	25.61	Both	10,856	1992 to 2008
16.98	15.63	loose	16.29	Neither	20,943	2012 to 2024
15.06	13.77	loose	14.41	Warm only	20,943	2012 to 2024
22.61	21.10	loose	21.85	Cold only	20,943	2012 to 2024
48.37	46.54	loose	47.46	Both	20,943	2012 to 2024
51.43	47.13	strict	49.28	Neither	3,787	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face
15.04	12.10	strict	13.50	Warm only	3,787	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face
21.25	17.85	strict	19.49	Cold only	3,787	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face
19.43	16.14	strict	17.73	Both	3,787	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face
38.73	35.95	strict	37.33	Neither	7,712	2012, 2016 and 2024, web
11.93	10.13	strict	11.00	Warm only	7,712	2012, 2016 and 2024, web
30.39	27.79	strict	29.07	Cold only	7,712	2012, 2016 and 2024, web
23.82	21.42	strict	22.60	Both	7,712	2012, 2016 and 2024, web

Views: Cut-offs 15 and 85 (cut = strict); Cut-offs 30 and 70 (cut = loose).

Note: Face-to-face and web estimates use the mode weights weight_ftf and weight_web, which exist for 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024. The 2020 study has no mode weights and the 2024 panel and paper respondents belong to neither mode group.

Note: Respondents give the ratings 15, 30, 70 and 85 more often than the values next to them, so each cut-off sits on a common answer and includes it.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z; weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode estimates of 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024)

Data: vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/group_shares.json

Table 2. Partisans very cold toward the other party only voted for their own party's presidential candidate more often than those very warm toward their own party only in each period, at 98.1% against 95.4% in 2012 to 2024

Share of partisans, leaners included, who acted as the view names (first view: voted for their own party's presidential candidate), by whether they rated the other party at or below 15 (cold) and their own party at or above 85 (warm), three periods

conf_high	conf_low	estimate	group	n	outcome	period
80.35	76.20	78.34	Neither	1,510	pres	1978 to 1990
92.30	88.87	90.73	Warm only	1,100	pres	1978 to 1990
98.71	91.81	96.69	Cold only	121	pres	1978 to 1990
99.57	97.17	98.89	Both	359	pres	1978 to 1990
85.96	82.95	84.51	Neither	2,753	pres	1992 to 2008
95.72	93.01	94.52	Warm only	1,361	pres	1992 to 2008
98.27	94.79	96.98	Cold only	496	pres	1992 to 2008
99.74	98.27	99.32	Both	790	pres	1992 to 2008
84.56	81.73	83.19	Neither	4,794	pres	2012 to 2024
96.61	93.84	95.42	Warm only	1,651	pres	2012 to 2024
98.52	97.47	98.06	Cold only	4,774	pres	2012 to 2024
99.48	98.72	99.18	Both	4,393	pres	2012 to 2024
73.64	70.49	72.09	Neither	3,117	house	1978 to 1990
81.50	77.98	79.80	Warm only	1,995	house	1978 to 1990
93.05	85.49	89.88	Cold only	247	house	1978 to 1990
91.44	86.32	89.14	Both	571	house	1978 to 1990
76.73	73.49	75.14	Neither	3,336	house	1992 to 2008
87.03	83.04	85.14	Warm only	1,501	house	1992 to 2008
93.13	87.97	90.87	Cold only	590	house	1992 to 2008
96.34	92.90	94.89	Both	844	house	1992 to 2008
82.17	79.03	80.65	Neither	4,286	house	2012 to 2024
91.89	87.54	89.92	Warm only	1,376	house	2012 to 2024
95.77	94.04	94.97	Cold only	4,397	house	2012 to 2024
96.25	94.41	95.42	Both	3,853	house	2012 to 2024
72.71	67.74	70.28	Neither	1,299	straight	1978 to 1990
79.46	74.11	76.89	Warm only	952	straight	1978 to 1990
93.34	81.08	88.57	Cold only	105	straight	1978 to 1990
90.53	83.05	87.25	Both	306	straight	1978 to 1990
77.70	73.79	75.80	Neither	2,282	straight	1992 to 2008
87.61	83.07	85.49	Warm only	1,140	straight	1992 to 2008
94.02	88.06	91.50	Cold only	421	straight	1992 to 2008
97.17	93.60	95.73	Both	685	straight	1992 to 2008
84.27	81.17	82.78	Neither	4,028	straight	2012 to 2024
92.26	87.94	90.32	Warm only	1,351	straight	2012 to 2024
95.71	93.92	94.89	Cold only	4,232	straight	2012 to 2024
96.34	94.51	95.52	Both	3,824	straight	2012 to 2024
63.52	61.05	62.29	Neither	5,885	turnout	1978 to 1990
70.14	67.03	68.61	Warm only	3,405	turnout	1978 to 1990
67.37	58.69	63.14	Cold only	472	turnout	1978 to 1990
74.52	68.74	71.72	Both	930	turnout	1978 to 1990
71.69	69.05	70.39	Neither	5,620	turnout	1992 to 2008
75.50	71.55	73.57	Warm only	2,368	turnout	1992 to 2008
82.05	76.01	79.19	Cold only	864	turnout	1992 to 2008
85.34	80.40	83.01	Both	1,158	turnout	1992 to 2008
79.53	76.83	78.21	Neither	6,432	turnout	2012 to 2024
84.34	79.82	82.19	Warm only	2,043	turnout	2012 to 2024
89.03	86.74	87.93	Cold only	5,582	turnout	2012 to 2024
89.63	87.15	88.45	Both	4,919	turnout	2012 to 2024
34.99	32.56	33.76	Neither	5,835	act_any	1978 to 1990
41.70	38.40	40.04	Warm only	3,384	act_any	1978 to 1990
48.08	39.09	43.53	Cold only	464	act_any	1978 to 1990
47.75	41.35	44.53	Both	923	act_any	1978 to 1990
40.49	37.66	39.07	Neither	5,614	act_any	1992 to 2008
47.13	42.67	44.89	Warm only	2,362	act_any	1992 to 2008
60.83	53.47	57.19	Cold only	864	act_any	1992 to 2008
64.41	58.01	61.26	Both	1,157	act_any	1992 to 2008
44.14	40.90	42.51	Neither	6,364	act_any	2012 to 2024
57.54	51.61	54.59	Warm only	2,011	act_any	2012 to 2024
61.75	58.28	60.03	Cold only	5,510	act_any	2012 to 2024
64.07	60.26	62.18	Both	4,812	act_any	2012 to 2024

Views: Presidential vote (outcome = pres); House vote (outcome = house); Straight ticket (outcome = straight); Reported turnout (outcome = turnout); Campaign activity (outcome = act_any).

Note: Cells below 100 respondents are left out.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z)

Data: vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/cells.json

Table 3. Per rating point, coldness toward the other party went with more House voting, reported turnout and campaign activity than warmth toward the own party did in 2012 to 2024, while in 1978 to 1990 the two went with similar amounts of House voting and campaign activity

Percentage points of each behavior per 10 points on the 0 to 100 thermometer, from one linear probability model per behavior and period with both ratings and year fixed effects, partisans including leaners

Behavior	Sample	Warmth coefficient	Warmth, lower end	Warmth, upper end	Coldness coefficient	Coldness, lower end	Coldness, upper end	Coldness minus warmth	Difference, lower end	Difference, upper end	Respondents
Party-line presidential vote	1978 to 1990	4.27	3.54	5.01	4.17	3.64	4.71	−0.10	−1.06	+0.87	3,090
Party-line House vote	1978 to 1990	2.92	2.29	3.54	2.95	2.47	3.43	+0.03	−0.79	+0.86	5,930
Straight ticket	1978 to 1990	2.05	1.11	3.00	2.83	2.10	3.56	+0.78	−0.50	+2.06	2,662
Reported turnout	1978 to 1990	2.15	1.64	2.66	1.08	0.66	1.51	−1.07	−1.76	−0.38	10,692
Campaign activity	1978 to 1990	1.94	1.43	2.45	1.96	1.52	2.40	+0.02	−0.67	+0.70	10,606
Party-line House vote	1978 to 1990, midterm years	3.11	2.26	3.95	2.98	2.33	3.63	−0.12	−1.23	+0.99	3,138
Reported turnout	1978 to 1990, midterm years	2.33	1.64	3.02	0.88	0.29	1.46	−1.45	−2.37	−0.54	6,348
Campaign activity	1978 to 1990, midterm years	1.68	1.03	2.33	1.52	0.95	2.08	−0.16	−1.02	+0.69	6,321
Party-line presidential vote	1978 to 1990, presidential years	4.27	3.54	5.01	4.17	3.64	4.71	−0.10	−1.06	+0.87	3,090
Party-line House vote	1978 to 1990, presidential years	2.71	1.79	3.64	2.93	2.23	3.64	+0.22	−1.03	+1.46	2,792
Straight ticket	1978 to 1990, presidential years	2.05	1.11	3.00	2.83	2.10	3.56	+0.78	−0.50	+2.06	2,662
Reported turnout	1978 to 1990, presidential years	1.86	1.11	2.62	1.39	0.79	1.99	−0.47	−1.51	+0.57	4,344
Campaign activity	1978 to 1990, presidential years	2.26	1.43	3.08	2.54	1.84	3.23	+0.28	−0.85	+1.41	4,285
Party-line presidential vote	1992 to 2008	3.67	3.09	4.26	3.29	2.85	3.74	−0.38	−1.13	+0.37	5,400
Party-line House vote	1992 to 2008	3.11	2.48	3.73	3.34	2.86	3.81	+0.23	−0.61	+1.07	6,271
Straight ticket	1992 to 2008	2.84	2.10	3.59	3.31	2.75	3.87	+0.46	−0.56	+1.48	4,528
Reported turnout	1992 to 2008	1.34	0.78	1.91	2.41	1.95	2.88	+1.07	+0.29	+1.86	10,010
Campaign activity	1992 to 2008	1.86	1.27	2.46	3.55	3.05	4.06	+1.69	+0.88	+2.50	9,997
Party-line presidential vote	2012 to 2024	2.88	2.55	3.20	3.62	3.27	3.96	+0.74	+0.25	+1.23	15,612
Party-line House vote	2012 to 2024	1.92	1.55	2.29	3.48	3.07	3.88	+1.56	+0.99	+2.13	13,912
Straight ticket	2012 to 2024	1.21	0.85	1.57	2.55	2.16	2.93	+1.34	+0.77	+1.90	13,435
Reported turnout	2012 to 2024	0.68	0.30	1.06	2.25	1.87	2.64	+1.58	+0.98	+2.17	18,976
Campaign activity	2012 to 2024	2.02	1.54	2.50	3.56	3.09	4.04	+1.54	+0.79	+2.30	18,697

Views: 2012 to 2024 (view = p3); 1992 to 2008 (view = p2); 1978 to 1990 (view = p1); 1978 to 1990, presidential years (view = p1pres); 1978 to 1990, midterm years (view = p1mid).

Note: Intervals are 95% intervals from HC3 robust standard errors (a linear probability model with year fixed effects) and treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample.

Note: Presidential voting is among partisans who voted for a major-party candidate. Turnout and campaign activity are self-reports. The 1978 to 1990 period has midterm studies in 1978, 1982, 1986 and 1990; 2012 to 2024 has none.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z)

Data: vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/by_period.json

Table 4. The edge of coldness over warmth rose by 0.3 to 0.5 points per decade for presidential voting, House voting and reported turnout, with intervals above zero, and the yearly estimates are too noisy to date the rise

Coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient, percentage points of each behavior per 10 rating points, one model per survey year, partisans including leaners, 1978 to 2024

behavior	diff_conf_high	diff_conf_low	diff_estimate	n	year
Party-line presidential vote	1.44	−2.55	−0.555	773	1980
Party-line presidential vote	2.26	−0.660	0.799	1,230	1984
Party-line presidential vote	0.953	−2.26	−0.655	1,087	1988
Party-line presidential vote	1.46	−1.03	0.214	1,237	1992
Party-line presidential vote	−0.690	−4.24	−2.47	979	1996
Party-line presidential vote	1.30	−2.58	−0.639	1,026	2000
Party-line presidential vote	1.37	−3.15	−0.889	754	2004
Party-line presidential vote	2.14	−0.829	0.655	1,404	2008
Party-line presidential vote	1.37	−0.758	0.307	3,838	2012
Party-line presidential vote	1.91	−0.053	0.930	2,381	2016
Party-line presidential vote	2.04	0.259	1.15	5,580	2020
Party-line presidential vote	1.44	−0.486	0.475	3,813	2024
Party-line House vote	1.87	−2.95	−0.540	856	1978
Party-line House vote	1.36	−3.25	−0.947	765	1980
Party-line House vote	2.70	−2.08	0.314	654	1982
Party-line House vote	2.93	−1.24	0.843	1,069	1984
Party-line House vote	1.31	−2.95	−0.821	895	1986
Party-line House vote	2.85	−1.38	0.732	958	1988
Party-line House vote	2.62	−1.35	0.637	733	1990
Party-line House vote	0.847	−2.63	−0.891	1,248	1992
Party-line House vote	1.43	−3.16	−0.864	878	1994
Party-line House vote	2.40	−2.04	0.180	964	1996
Party-line House vote	6.00	0.558	3.28	516	1998
Party-line House vote	3.03	−1.83	0.604	836	2000
Party-line House vote	3.47	−1.64	0.914	664	2004
Party-line House vote	2.30	−1.81	0.244	1,165	2008
Party-line House vote	2.58	0.262	1.42	3,321	2012
Party-line House vote	2.83	0.077	1.45	2,147	2016
Party-line House vote	3.29	1.26	2.28	4,929	2020
Party-line House vote	1.69	−0.465	0.613	3,515	2024
Straight ticket	2.13	−2.58	−0.227	683	1980
Straight ticket	3.65	−0.702	1.47	1,035	1984
Straight ticket	3.11	−1.26	0.925	944	1988
Straight ticket	2.33	−1.32	0.505	1,043	1992
Straight ticket	0.642	−4.11	−1.74	878	1996
Straight ticket	4.85	−0.151	2.35	815	2000
Straight ticket	3.03	−1.95	0.537	654	2004
Straight ticket	2.91	−1.54	0.686	1,138	2008
Straight ticket	2.71	0.494	1.60	3,239	2012
Straight ticket	2.55	−0.278	1.13	1,987	2016
Straight ticket	2.77	0.677	1.73	4,793	2020
Straight ticket	1.53	−0.458	0.539	3,416	2024
Reported turnout	2.98	−0.683	1.15	1,722	1978
Reported turnout	3.20	−0.494	1.36	1,156	1980
Reported turnout	−1.15	−5.58	−3.36	1,174	1982
Reported turnout	0.446	−2.99	−1.27	1,673	1984
Reported turnout	−1.15	−4.68	−2.91	1,796	1986
Reported turnout	0.635	−3.08	−1.22	1,515	1988
Reported turnout	0.269	−3.03	−1.38	1,656	1990
Reported turnout	4.33	1.60	2.96	1,911	1992
Reported turnout	3.07	−1.37	0.852	1,567	1994
Reported turnout	1.16	−3.21	−1.02	1,373	1996
Reported turnout	4.05	−0.834	1.61	1,102	1998
Reported turnout	2.27	−2.85	−0.293	1,325	2000
Reported turnout	7.19	1.95	4.57	934	2004
Reported turnout	0.865	−2.48	−0.808	1,798	2008
Reported turnout	3.58	1.28	2.43	4,747	2012
Reported turnout	2.43	−0.143	1.14	3,130	2016
Reported turnout	2.58	0.503	1.54	6,498	2020
Reported turnout	2.46	−0.268	1.09	4,601	2024
Campaign activity	3.00	−0.538	1.23	1,719	1978
Campaign activity	3.27	−0.893	1.19	1,149	1980
Campaign activity	1.11	−3.21	−1.05	1,171	1982
Campaign activity	2.40	−1.50	0.449	1,627	1984
Campaign activity	0.826	−2.50	−0.839	1,777	1986
Campaign activity	1.18	−2.56	−0.692	1,509	1988
Campaign activity	1.20	−1.70	−0.251	1,654	1990
Campaign activity	3.95	0.635	2.29	1,909	1992
Campaign activity	3.03	−1.14	0.949	1,558	1994
Campaign activity	3.87	−0.421	1.72	1,372	1996
Campaign activity	4.19	−0.066	2.06	1,103	1998
Campaign activity	3.98	−0.850	1.56	1,325	2000
Campaign activity	4.87	−1.02	1.92	934	2004
Campaign activity	3.44	−0.918	1.26	1,796	2008
Campaign activity	3.24	0.228	1.73	4,731	2012
Campaign activity	2.66	−0.324	1.17	3,106	2016
Campaign activity	3.71	1.04	2.38	6,449	2020
Campaign activity	2.11	−1.34	0.386	4,411	2024

Note: Intervals are 95% intervals from HC3 robust standard errors (a linear probability model fitted to one year at a time) and treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample.

Note: Presidential vote and straight-ticket voting exist only in presidential election years; House vote, turnout and campaign activity also exist in midterm years.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z)

Data: vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/yearly.json

Table 5. In 2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled, the coldness-minus-warmth difference has the same sign in face-to-face and web interviews for all five behaviors, and the two intervals overlap in every row

Coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient, percentage points of each behavior per 10 rating points, face-to-face and web respondents separately, partisans including leaners

behavior	ftf	ftf_hi	ftf_lo	n_ftf	n_web	period	web	web_hi	web_lo	year
Party-line presidential vote	1.17	3.61	−1.28	1,250	2,588	2012	−0.216	0.705	−1.14	2012
Party-line House vote	2.54	4.74	0.346	1,036	2,285	2012	0.957	2.24	−0.330	2012
Straight ticket	0.306	2.79	−2.18	1,012	2,227	2012	2.36	3.42	1.29	2012
Reported turnout	3.09	4.96	1.23	1,685	3,062	2012	1.76	3.23	0.283	2012
Campaign activity	2.50	5.04	−0.037	1,684	3,047	2012	1.44	3.36	−0.490	2012
Party-line presidential vote	0.653	2.31	−1.01	696	1,685	2016	1.11	2.32	−0.089	2016
Party-line House vote	0.663	2.65	−1.33	653	1,494	2016	2.03	3.82	0.236	2016
Straight ticket	0.723	2.87	−1.42	588	1,399	2016	1.51	3.31	−0.294	2016
Reported turnout	1.97	4.00	−0.063	931	2,199	2016	0.887	2.48	−0.707	2016
Campaign activity	1.66	4.47	−1.15	926	2,180	2016	0.919	2.69	−0.855	2016
Party-line presidential vote	0.934	3.17	−1.30	674	1,313	2024	0.683	2.02	−0.651	2024
Party-line House vote	0.867	3.80	−2.06	594	1,211	2024	0.382	1.82	−1.05	2024
Straight ticket	1.50	4.12	−1.11	571	1,185	2024	0.196	1.62	−1.23	2024
Reported turnout	1.32	4.60	−1.97	860	1,600	2024	1.12	2.79	−0.545	2024
Campaign activity	−0.845	2.49	−4.18	855	1,595	2024	0.476	3.23	−2.28	2024
Party-line presidential vote	0.936	2.31	−0.437	2,620	5,586	2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled	0.465	1.12	−0.184	pooled
Party-line House vote	1.53	2.91	0.151	2,283	4,990	2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled	1.25	2.14	0.359	pooled
Straight ticket	0.524	2.01	−0.964	2,171	4,811	2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled	1.58	2.42	0.740	pooled
Reported turnout	2.41	3.68	1.13	3,476	6,861	2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled	1.25	2.17	0.329	pooled
Campaign activity	1.56	3.21	−0.086	3,465	6,822	2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled	1.06	2.24	−0.122	pooled

Views: 2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled (year = pooled); 2012 (year = 2012); 2016 (year = 2016); 2024 (year = 2024).

Note: Mode groups are the fresh face-to-face and fresh web samples with their own weights. In 2024 the panel and paper respondents belong to neither group and are not in this figure. Pooled estimates include year fixed effects.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z; weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode estimates of 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024)

Data: vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/mode.json

Table 6. Per rating point, the change since 1978 to 1990 in the difference between coldness and warmth is above zero for reported turnout in all interviews, in presidential years alone and within each interview mode, and for House voting and campaign activity only in all interviews

Coldness minus warmth coefficient in a later sample minus the same difference in 1978 to 1990, percentage points of each behavior per 10 rating points, partisans including leaners

behavior	conf_high	conf_low	estimate	sample_label	view
Party-line presidential vote	0.087	−0.111	−0.012	2012 to 2024, all interviews	logodds_all
Party-line presidential vote	0.285	−0.114	0.086	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	logodds_all
Party-line presidential vote	0.069	−0.149	−0.040	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	logodds_all
Party-line presidential vote	0.080	−0.151	−0.035	1992 to 2008, all interviews	logodds_all
Party-line House vote	0.182	0.044	0.113	2012 to 2024, all interviews	logodds_all
Party-line House vote	0.312	0.003	0.157	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	logodds_all
Party-line House vote	0.175	−0.006	0.085	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	logodds_all
Party-line House vote	0.090	−0.053	0.018	1992 to 2008, all interviews	logodds_all
Straight ticket	0.161	−0.016	0.072	2012 to 2024, all interviews	logodds_all
Straight ticket	0.179	−0.154	0.012	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	logodds_all
Straight ticket	0.199	−0.013	0.093	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	logodds_all
Straight ticket	0.097	−0.096	0.001	1992 to 2008, all interviews	logodds_all
Reported turnout	0.205	0.101	0.153	2012 to 2024, all interviews	logodds_all
Reported turnout	0.280	0.110	0.195	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	logodds_all
Reported turnout	0.196	0.059	0.128	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	logodds_all
Reported turnout	0.159	0.055	0.107	1992 to 2008, all interviews	logodds_all
Campaign activity	0.107	0.020	0.063	2012 to 2024, all interviews	logodds_all
Campaign activity	0.141	−0.010	0.066	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	logodds_all
Campaign activity	0.101	−0.014	0.043	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	logodds_all
Campaign activity	0.120	0.026	0.073	1992 to 2008, all interviews	logodds_all
Party-line presidential vote	0.087	−0.111	−0.012	2012 to 2024, all interviews	logodds_pres
Party-line presidential vote	0.285	−0.114	0.086	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	logodds_pres
Party-line presidential vote	0.069	−0.149	−0.040	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	logodds_pres
Party-line presidential vote	0.080	−0.151	−0.035	1992 to 2008, all interviews	logodds_pres
Party-line House vote	0.188	0.019	0.104	2012 to 2024, all interviews	logodds_pres
Party-line House vote	0.310	−0.014	0.148	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	logodds_pres
Party-line House vote	0.178	−0.028	0.075	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	logodds_pres
Party-line House vote	0.088	−0.097	−0.004	1992 to 2008, all interviews	logodds_pres
Straight ticket	0.161	−0.016	0.072	2012 to 2024, all interviews	logodds_pres
Straight ticket	0.179	−0.154	0.012	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	logodds_pres
Straight ticket	0.199	−0.013	0.093	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	logodds_pres
Straight ticket	0.097	−0.096	0.001	1992 to 2008, all interviews	logodds_pres
Reported turnout	0.196	0.058	0.127	2012 to 2024, all interviews	logodds_pres
Reported turnout	0.266	0.073	0.169	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	logodds_pres
Reported turnout	0.184	0.020	0.102	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	logodds_pres
Reported turnout	0.162	0.010	0.086	1992 to 2008, all interviews	logodds_pres
Campaign activity	0.109	−0.004	0.052	2012 to 2024, all interviews	logodds_pres
Campaign activity	0.139	−0.029	0.055	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	logodds_pres
Campaign activity	0.100	−0.036	0.032	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	logodds_pres
Campaign activity	0.126	0.001	0.063	1992 to 2008, all interviews	logodds_pres
Party-line presidential vote	1.92	−0.244	0.837	2012 to 2024, all interviews	pp_all
Party-line presidential vote	2.71	−0.645	1.03	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	pp_all
Party-line presidential vote	1.72	−0.601	0.562	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	pp_all
Party-line presidential vote	0.938	−1.50	−0.283	1992 to 2008, all interviews	pp_all
Party-line House vote	2.53	0.516	1.52	2012 to 2024, all interviews	pp_all
Party-line House vote	3.10	−0.114	1.49	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	pp_all
Party-line House vote	2.43	−0.002	1.21	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	pp_all
Party-line House vote	1.37	−0.984	0.195	1992 to 2008, all interviews	pp_all
Straight ticket	1.96	−0.845	0.557	2012 to 2024, all interviews	pp_all
Straight ticket	1.71	−2.22	−0.254	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	pp_all
Straight ticket	2.34	−0.730	0.804	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	pp_all
Straight ticket	1.32	−1.95	−0.314	1992 to 2008, all interviews	pp_all
Reported turnout	3.56	1.73	2.64	2012 to 2024, all interviews	pp_all
Reported turnout	4.93	2.02	3.47	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	pp_all
Reported turnout	3.47	1.16	2.32	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	pp_all
Reported turnout	3.18	1.09	2.14	1992 to 2008, all interviews	pp_all
Campaign activity	2.54	0.514	1.53	2012 to 2024, all interviews	pp_all
Campaign activity	3.33	−0.238	1.55	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	pp_all
Campaign activity	2.41	−0.321	1.04	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	pp_all
Campaign activity	2.74	0.614	1.67	1992 to 2008, all interviews	pp_all
Party-line presidential vote	1.92	−0.244	0.837	2012 to 2024, all interviews	pp_pres
Party-line presidential vote	2.71	−0.645	1.03	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	pp_pres
Party-line presidential vote	1.72	−0.601	0.562	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	pp_pres
Party-line presidential vote	0.938	−1.50	−0.283	1992 to 2008, all interviews	pp_pres
Party-line House vote	2.71	−0.031	1.34	2012 to 2024, all interviews	pp_pres
Party-line House vote	3.17	−0.547	1.31	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	pp_pres
Party-line House vote	2.56	−0.500	1.03	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	pp_pres
Party-line House vote	1.37	−1.77	−0.203	1992 to 2008, all interviews	pp_pres
Straight ticket	1.96	−0.845	0.557	2012 to 2024, all interviews	pp_pres
Straight ticket	1.71	−2.22	−0.254	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	pp_pres
Straight ticket	2.34	−0.730	0.804	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	pp_pres
Straight ticket	1.32	−1.95	−0.314	1992 to 2008, all interviews	pp_pres
Reported turnout	3.25	0.848	2.05	2012 to 2024, all interviews	pp_pres
Reported turnout	4.53	1.23	2.88	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	pp_pres
Reported turnout	3.12	0.331	1.72	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	pp_pres
Reported turnout	2.86	0.121	1.49	1992 to 2008, all interviews	pp_pres
Campaign activity	2.62	−0.092	1.26	2012 to 2024, all interviews	pp_pres
Campaign activity	3.28	−0.716	1.28	2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face	pp_pres
Campaign activity	2.41	−0.856	0.779	2012, 2016 and 2024, web	pp_pres
Campaign activity	2.98	0.007	1.49	1992 to 2008, all interviews	pp_pres

Views: Percentage points, all earlier years (view = pp_all); Percentage points, presidential years only (view = pp_pres); Log-odds, all earlier years (view = logodds_all); Log-odds, presidential years only (view = logodds_pres).

Note: The 1978 to 1990 comparison sample has no mode weights and was interviewed mainly in person; mode estimates of the later period use weight_ftf and weight_web and cover 2012, 2016 and 2024 only. The 2020 study has no mode weights.

Note: In the presidential-years views the earlier sample is 1980, 1984 and 1988. Presidential voting and the straight ticket exist only in presidential years, so their two baselines coincide.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z; weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode estimates of 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024)

Data: vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/change.json

Table 7. In 2012 to 2024 the coldness coefficient exceeds the warmth coefficient for all five behaviors under each of four measures, every one of the 20 intervals lies above zero, and the measures disagree about the change since 1978 to 1990

Coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient, partisans including leaners, by measure of the ratings, 2012 to 2024; units are percentage points per 10 rating points, per standard deviation, or between groups

behavior	diff_conf_high	diff_conf_low	diff_estimate	n	period	spec_label
Party-line presidential vote	0.867	−1.06	−0.096	3,090	1978 to 1990	Per 10 rating points
Party-line House vote	0.864	−0.794	0.035	5,930	1978 to 1990	Per 10 rating points
Straight ticket	2.06	−0.503	0.779	2,662	1978 to 1990	Per 10 rating points
Reported turnout	−0.375	−1.76	−1.07	10,692	1978 to 1990	Per 10 rating points
Campaign activity	0.699	−0.666	0.016	10,606	1978 to 1990	Per 10 rating points
Party-line presidential vote	3.22	−0.507	1.36	3,090	1978 to 1990	Per standard deviation
Party-line House vote	2.57	−0.592	0.988	5,930	1978 to 1990	Per standard deviation
Straight ticket	4.91	−0.071	2.42	2,662	1978 to 1990	Per standard deviation
Reported turnout	−0.213	−2.86	−1.54	10,692	1978 to 1990	Per standard deviation
Campaign activity	1.96	−0.659	0.650	10,606	1978 to 1990	Per standard deviation
Party-line presidential vote	3.67	−3.04	0.314	3,090	1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Party-line House vote	9.19	1.95	5.57	5,930	1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Straight ticket	12.84	1.62	7.23	2,662	1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Reported turnout	−0.132	−7.10	−3.61	10,692	1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Campaign activity	4.87	−2.60	1.14	10,606	1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Party-line presidential vote	1.60	−6.40	−2.40	3,090	1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Party-line House vote	7.60	0.490	4.05	5,930	1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Straight ticket	14.44	3.45	8.95	2,662	1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Reported turnout	0.437	−5.65	−2.60	10,692	1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Campaign activity	7.24	0.921	4.08	10,606	1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Party-line presidential vote	0.370	−1.13	−0.379	5,400	1992 to 2008	Per 10 rating points
Party-line House vote	1.07	−0.609	0.229	6,271	1992 to 2008	Per 10 rating points
Straight ticket	1.48	−0.556	0.464	4,528	1992 to 2008	Per 10 rating points
Reported turnout	1.86	0.287	1.07	10,010	1992 to 2008	Per 10 rating points
Campaign activity	2.50	0.879	1.69	9,997	1992 to 2008	Per 10 rating points
Party-line presidential vote	1.81	−1.08	0.368	5,400	1992 to 2008	Per standard deviation
Party-line House vote	3.06	−0.158	1.45	6,271	1992 to 2008	Per standard deviation
Straight ticket	3.86	−0.080	1.89	4,528	1992 to 2008	Per standard deviation
Reported turnout	4.17	1.14	2.65	10,010	1992 to 2008	Per standard deviation
Campaign activity	5.70	2.55	4.13	9,997	1992 to 2008	Per standard deviation
Party-line presidential vote	2.82	−1.99	0.412	5,400	1992 to 2008	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Party-line House vote	7.22	0.758	3.99	6,271	1992 to 2008	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Straight ticket	8.32	0.699	4.51	4,528	1992 to 2008	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Reported turnout	8.24	1.35	4.80	10,010	1992 to 2008	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Campaign activity	14.15	6.30	10.23	9,997	1992 to 2008	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Party-line presidential vote	2.57	−3.01	−0.216	5,400	1992 to 2008	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Party-line House vote	4.73	−2.09	1.32	6,271	1992 to 2008	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Straight ticket	6.96	−1.35	2.81	4,528	1992 to 2008	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Reported turnout	8.16	2.03	5.10	10,010	1992 to 2008	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Campaign activity	13.60	6.88	10.24	9,997	1992 to 2008	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Party-line presidential vote	1.23	0.251	0.741	15,612	2012 to 2024	Per 10 rating points
Party-line House vote	2.13	0.986	1.56	13,912	2012 to 2024	Per 10 rating points
Straight ticket	1.90	0.768	1.34	13,435	2012 to 2024	Per 10 rating points
Reported turnout	2.17	0.982	1.58	18,976	2012 to 2024	Per 10 rating points
Campaign activity	2.30	0.794	1.54	18,697	2012 to 2024	Per 10 rating points
Party-line presidential vote	2.83	0.767	1.80	15,612	2012 to 2024	Per standard deviation
Party-line House vote	4.64	2.25	3.45	13,912	2012 to 2024	Per standard deviation
Straight ticket	4.11	1.74	2.93	13,435	2012 to 2024	Per standard deviation
Reported turnout	4.69	2.20	3.44	18,976	2012 to 2024	Per standard deviation
Campaign activity	5.01	1.87	3.44	18,697	2012 to 2024	Per standard deviation
Party-line presidential vote	7.79	5.01	6.40	15,612	2012 to 2024	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Party-line House vote	10.23	6.40	8.31	13,912	2012 to 2024	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Straight ticket	8.89	5.02	6.96	13,435	2012 to 2024	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Reported turnout	8.87	4.15	6.51	18,976	2012 to 2024	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Campaign activity	12.12	5.72	8.92	18,697	2012 to 2024	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Party-line presidential vote	7.87	4.09	5.98	15,612	2012 to 2024	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Party-line House vote	10.68	5.99	8.34	13,912	2012 to 2024	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Straight ticket	8.86	4.10	6.48	13,435	2012 to 2024	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Reported turnout	9.07	4.00	6.54	18,976	2012 to 2024	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Campaign activity	9.48	2.93	6.20	18,697	2012 to 2024	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Party-line presidential vote	1.92	−0.244	0.837	18,702	Change since 1978 to 1990	Per 10 rating points
Party-line House vote	2.53	0.516	1.52	19,842	Change since 1978 to 1990	Per 10 rating points
Straight ticket	1.96	−0.845	0.557	16,097	Change since 1978 to 1990	Per 10 rating points
Reported turnout	3.56	1.73	2.64	29,668	Change since 1978 to 1990	Per 10 rating points
Campaign activity	2.54	0.514	1.53	29,303	Change since 1978 to 1990	Per 10 rating points
Party-line presidential vote	2.57	−1.69	0.441	18,702	Change since 1978 to 1990	Per standard deviation
Party-line House vote	4.44	0.476	2.46	19,842	Change since 1978 to 1990	Per standard deviation
Straight ticket	3.27	−2.25	0.511	16,097	Change since 1978 to 1990	Per standard deviation
Reported turnout	6.80	3.16	4.98	29,668	Change since 1978 to 1990	Per standard deviation
Campaign activity	4.84	0.744	2.79	29,303	Change since 1978 to 1990	Per standard deviation
Party-line presidential vote	9.71	2.45	6.08	18,702	Change since 1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Party-line House vote	6.84	−1.35	2.75	19,842	Change since 1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Straight ticket	5.66	−6.21	−0.274	16,097	Change since 1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Reported turnout	14.33	5.92	10.13	29,668	Change since 1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Campaign activity	12.70	2.86	7.78	29,303	Change since 1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 15 and 85
Party-line presidential vote	12.81	3.96	8.38	18,702	Change since 1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Party-line House vote	8.55	0.034	4.29	19,842	Change since 1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Straight ticket	3.52	−8.45	−2.47	16,097	Change since 1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Reported turnout	13.10	5.18	9.14	29,668	Change since 1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 30 and 70
Campaign activity	6.67	−2.43	2.12	29,303	Change since 1978 to 1990	Cut-offs 30 and 70

Views: 2012 to 2024 (period = 2012 to 2024); 1992 to 2008 (period = 1992 to 2008); 1978 to 1990 (period = 1978 to 1990); Change since 1978 to 1990 (period = Change since 1978 to 1990).

Note: Intervals are 95% intervals from HC3 robust standard errors (a linear probability model with year fixed effects) and treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample.

Note: Panels are on different scales and cannot be compared in size. The cut-off panels are indicator coefficients in one model per behavior and period; each indicator is adjusted for the other. The change view is the 2012 to 2024 difference minus the 1978 to 1990 difference, with the two standard errors combined in quadrature; its respondent count is the two periods together. The 1978 to 1990 and 1992 to 2008 samples include midterm studies for House voting, reported turnout and campaign activity, and 2012 to 2024 has none.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z)

Data: vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/cutoffs.json

Table 8. In 2012 to 2024 the difference between coldness and warmth is positive in all 25 cells of five further checks, with an interval above zero in 21

Coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient, partisans, by check, 2012 to 2024; percentage points per 10 rating points (log-odds in one panel, per scale point of the like-dislike scale in another)

behavior	diff_conf_high	diff_conf_low	diff_estimate	n	period	spec_label
Party-line presidential vote	0.457	−1.78	−0.662	2,345	1978 to 1990	Leaners excluded
Party-line House vote	0.477	−1.41	−0.468	4,518	1978 to 1990	Leaners excluded
Straight ticket	0.959	−2.09	−0.564	2,015	1978 to 1990	Leaners excluded
Reported turnout	0.094	−1.55	−0.727	7,863	1978 to 1990	Leaners excluded
Campaign activity	0.480	−1.16	−0.339	7,801	1978 to 1990	Leaners excluded
Party-line presidential vote	0.446	−1.56	−0.560	3,021	1978 to 1990	Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed
Party-line House vote	1.76	0.004	0.880	5,830	1978 to 1990	Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed
Straight ticket	2.83	0.103	1.47	2,602	1978 to 1990	Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed
Reported turnout	0.844	−0.459	0.192	10,525	1978 to 1990	Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed
Campaign activity	0.920	−0.384	0.268	10,442	1978 to 1990	Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed
Party-line presidential vote	0.466	−1.21	−0.370	3,090	1978 to 1990	Each rating in its own model
Party-line House vote	0.659	−0.841	−0.091	5,930	1978 to 1990	Each rating in its own model
Straight ticket	1.60	−0.601	0.498	2,662	1978 to 1990	Each rating in its own model
Reported turnout	−0.384	−1.69	−1.04	10,692	1978 to 1990	Each rating in its own model
Campaign activity	0.623	−0.666	−0.021	10,606	1978 to 1990	Each rating in its own model
Party-line presidential vote	0.169	0.013	0.091	3,090	1978 to 1990	Log-odds scale
Party-line House vote	0.062	−0.031	0.016	5,930	1978 to 1990	Log-odds scale
Straight ticket	0.118	−0.017	0.051	2,662	1978 to 1990	Log-odds scale
Reported turnout	−0.016	−0.079	−0.047	10,692	1978 to 1990	Log-odds scale
Campaign activity	0.030	−0.031	0.000	10,606	1978 to 1990	Log-odds scale
Party-line presidential vote	0.543	−1.13	−0.296	4,029	1992 to 2008	Leaners excluded
Party-line House vote	1.18	−0.819	0.182	4,658	1992 to 2008	Leaners excluded
Straight ticket	1.51	−0.883	0.315	3,409	1992 to 2008	Leaners excluded
Reported turnout	2.16	0.290	1.23	7,068	1992 to 2008	Leaners excluded
Campaign activity	2.79	0.781	1.79	7,057	1992 to 2008	Leaners excluded
Party-line presidential vote	0.027	−1.69	−0.833	4,637	1992 to 2008	Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed
Party-line House vote	1.66	−0.240	0.710	5,593	1992 to 2008	Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed
Straight ticket	1.66	−0.726	0.468	3,909	1992 to 2008	Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed
Reported turnout	1.98	0.432	1.21	8,970	1992 to 2008	Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed
Campaign activity	1.91	0.225	1.07	8,958	1992 to 2008	Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed
Party-line presidential vote	0.057	−1.18	−0.563	5,400	1992 to 2008	Each rating in its own model
Party-line House vote	0.719	−0.708	0.006	6,271	1992 to 2008	Each rating in its own model
Straight ticket	0.956	−0.696	0.130	4,528	1992 to 2008	Each rating in its own model
Reported turnout	1.56	0.178	0.870	10,010	1992 to 2008	Each rating in its own model
Campaign activity	2.10	0.664	1.38	9,997	1992 to 2008	Each rating in its own model
Party-line presidential vote	0.141	−0.029	0.056	5,400	1992 to 2008	Log-odds scale
Party-line House vote	0.088	−0.021	0.034	6,271	1992 to 2008	Log-odds scale
Straight ticket	0.120	−0.018	0.051	4,528	1992 to 2008	Log-odds scale
Reported turnout	0.101	0.018	0.060	10,010	1992 to 2008	Log-odds scale
Campaign activity	0.108	0.037	0.073	9,997	1992 to 2008	Log-odds scale
Party-line presidential vote	1.30	−0.759	0.270	3,127	1992 to 2008	Like-dislike scale
Party-line House vote	3.04	0.427	1.73	2,783	1992 to 2008	Like-dislike scale
Straight ticket	3.25	0.393	1.82	2,662	1992 to 2008	Like-dislike scale
Reported turnout	−0.857	−3.21	−2.03	4,075	1992 to 2008	Like-dislike scale
Campaign activity	3.08	0.277	1.68	4,074	1992 to 2008	Like-dislike scale
Party-line presidential vote	0.896	−0.279	0.308	11,862	2012 to 2024	Leaners excluded
Party-line House vote	1.40	−0.054	0.672	10,454	2012 to 2024	Leaners excluded
Straight ticket	1.45	0.132	0.791	10,207	2012 to 2024	Leaners excluded
Reported turnout	2.24	0.788	1.51	13,947	2012 to 2024	Leaners excluded
Campaign activity	2.16	0.243	1.20	13,739	2012 to 2024	Leaners excluded
Party-line presidential vote	1.09	0.052	0.569	14,882	2012 to 2024	Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed
Party-line House vote	1.86	0.611	1.24	13,254	2012 to 2024	Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed
Straight ticket	1.97	0.734	1.35	12,804	2012 to 2024	Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed
Reported turnout	1.96	0.775	1.37	18,105	2012 to 2024	Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed
Campaign activity	2.00	0.488	1.25	18,007	2012 to 2024	Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed
Party-line presidential vote	0.878	0.129	0.504	15,612	2012 to 2024	Each rating in its own model
Party-line House vote	1.60	0.732	1.17	13,912	2012 to 2024	Each rating in its own model
Straight ticket	1.39	0.545	0.966	13,435	2012 to 2024	Each rating in its own model
Reported turnout	1.65	0.737	1.19	18,976	2012 to 2024	Each rating in its own model
Campaign activity	1.73	0.573	1.15	18,697	2012 to 2024	Each rating in its own model
Party-line presidential vote	0.141	0.019	0.080	15,612	2012 to 2024	Log-odds scale
Party-line House vote	0.180	0.077	0.129	13,912	2012 to 2024	Log-odds scale
Straight ticket	0.180	0.066	0.123	13,435	2012 to 2024	Log-odds scale
Reported turnout	0.147	0.064	0.106	18,976	2012 to 2024	Log-odds scale
Campaign activity	0.094	0.032	0.063	18,697	2012 to 2024	Log-odds scale
Party-line presidential vote	0.806	−0.164	0.321	15,238	2012 to 2024	Like-dislike scale
Party-line House vote	1.34	0.200	0.771	13,586	2012 to 2024	Like-dislike scale
Straight ticket	2.10	0.944	1.52	13,126	2012 to 2024	Like-dislike scale
Reported turnout	0.916	−0.360	0.278	18,479	2012 to 2024	Like-dislike scale
Campaign activity	2.38	0.878	1.63	18,475	2012 to 2024	Like-dislike scale

Views: 2012 to 2024 (period = 2012 to 2024); 1992 to 2008 (period = 1992 to 2008); 1978 to 1990 (period = 1978 to 1990).

Note: Intervals are 95% intervals from HC3 robust standard errors (a linear probability model with year fixed effects) and treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample. The log-odds panel uses a probability-weight sandwich covariance.

Note: The like-dislike scale is the 0 to 10 scale for each party, asked in 1996, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z)

Data: vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/checks.json

Table 9. In 2012 to 2024 coldness went with more persuading others and giving money than warmth did, and the two went with similar amounts of displaying a button

Percentage points of each campaign activity per 10 points on the 0 to 100 thermometer, one linear probability model per activity and period with both ratings and year fixed effects, partisans including leaners

activity	cold_conf_high	cold_conf_low	cold_estimate	diff_conf_high	diff_conf_low	diff_estimate	n	period	warm_conf_high	warm_conf_low	warm_estimate
Tried to persuade others how to vote	2.37	1.55	1.96	1.11	−0.144	0.485	10,648	1978 to 1990	1.94	1.00	1.47
Attended a meeting or rally	0.816	0.288	0.552	0.183	−0.605	−0.211	10,656	1978 to 1990	1.05	0.475	0.763
Worked for a party or candidate	0.701	0.300	0.501	0.420	−0.159	0.130	10,646	1978 to 1990	0.588	0.153	0.371
Displayed a button or sticker	0.965	0.420	0.692	−0.116	−0.898	−0.507	10,656	1978 to 1990	1.50	0.903	1.20
Gave money to a party or candidate	1.21	0.656	0.933	0.705	−0.116	0.295	10,634	1978 to 1990	0.943	0.334	0.638
Tried to persuade others how to vote	4.20	3.22	3.71	3.62	2.07	2.84	10,006	1992 to 2008	1.45	0.293	0.869
Attended a meeting or rally	1.19	0.645	0.916	0.594	−0.158	0.218	10,006	1992 to 2008	0.991	0.404	0.698
Worked for a party or candidate	0.775	0.381	0.578	0.525	−0.009	0.258	10,004	1992 to 2008	0.523	0.118	0.320
Displayed a button or sticker	1.88	1.13	1.51	0.452	−0.675	−0.111	10,007	1992 to 2008	2.03	1.20	1.62
Gave money to a party or candidate	1.95	1.28	1.61	1.45	0.470	0.962	10,004	1992 to 2008	0.999	0.305	0.652
Tried to persuade others how to vote	3.54	2.62	3.08	2.61	1.13	1.87	18,886	2012 to 2024	1.68	0.730	1.21
Attended a meeting or rally	0.852	0.388	0.620	0.705	−0.076	0.314	18,886	2012 to 2024	0.555	0.057	0.306
Worked for a party or candidate	0.662	0.336	0.499	0.650	0.035	0.343	18,892	2012 to 2024	0.358	−0.046	0.156
Displayed a button or sticker	2.23	1.55	1.89	0.430	−0.686	−0.128	18,889	2012 to 2024	2.39	1.65	2.02
Gave money to a party or candidate	3.02	2.40	2.71	2.45	1.42	1.94	18,708	2012 to 2024	1.12	0.433	0.774

Views: 2012 to 2024 (period = 2012 to 2024); 1992 to 2008 (period = 1992 to 2008); 1978 to 1990 (period = 1978 to 1990).

Note: Intervals are 95% intervals from HC3 robust standard errors (a linear probability model with year fixed effects) and treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample.

Note: The 1978 to 1990 and 1992 to 2008 samples include midterm studies, and 2012 to 2024 has none. The activity questions are the cumulative-file items VCF0717 (tried to influence others), VCF0718 (attended a meeting or rally), VCF0719 (worked for a party or candidate), VCF0720 (displayed a button or sticker) and VCF0721 (gave money).

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z)

Data: vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/items.json

All estimates

Every fact in facts.json (186), sorted by id. The same values as JSON: facts.json.

Fact id	Value	Unit	Estimand	Population	Period	Interval	n	Weights	Source
act_any_chg	1.5	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI 0.5 to 2.5		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
act_any_chg_ftf	1.5	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI −0.2 to 3.3		weight_ftf (VCF0009x)	ANES Cumulative Data File
act_any_chg_logit	0.06	log-odds of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, log-odds coefficient in a weighted logistic regression with year fixed effects, per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI 0.02 to 0.11		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
act_any_chg_logit_p	0.05	log-odds of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, log-odds coefficient in a weighted logistic regression with year fixed effects, per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only	95% CI 0.00 to 0.11		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
act_any_chg_p	1.3	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only	95% CI −0.1 to 2.6		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
act_any_chg_web	1.0	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI −0.3 to 2.4		weight_web (VCF0009y)	ANES Cumulative Data File
act_any_cold_slope	0.4	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade	change per decade in the coldness coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	1978 to 2024 (18 surveys)	95% CI 0.2 to 0.6	39,300	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
act_any_diff_1	0.0	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	1978 to 1990	95% CI −0.7 to 0.7	10,606	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
act_any_diff_2	1.7	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	1992 to 2008	95% CI 0.9 to 2.5	9,997	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
act_any_diff_3	1.5	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	2012 to 2024	95% CI 0.8 to 2.3	18,697	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
act_any_diff_3y	1.14	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	2012, 2016 and 2024, all interviews	95% CI 0.23 to 2.05	12,248	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
act_any_diff_ftf	1.6	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews	95% CI −0.1 to 3.2	3,465	weight_ftf (VCF0009x)	ANES Cumulative Data File
act_any_diff_web	1.1	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews	95% CI −0.1 to 2.2	6,822	weight_web (VCF0009y)	ANES Cumulative Data File
act_any_diffp_1	0.3	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	1978 to 1990, presidential election years only	95% CI −0.8 to 1.4	4,285	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
act_any_noleaner_diff_3	1.2	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, leaners excluded, per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	2012 to 2024	95% CI 0.2 to 2.2	13,739	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
act_any_slope	0.3	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade	change per decade in the coldness-minus-warmth difference, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	1978 to 2024 (18 surveys)	95% CI 0.0 to 0.6	39,300	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
act_any_warm_slope	0.1	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade	change per decade in the warmth coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	1978 to 2024 (18 surveys)	95% CI −0.1 to 0.3	39,300	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
act_any_yr_2020	2.4	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, one linear probability model for the survey year (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	2020	95% CI 1.0 to 3.7	6,449	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
act_any_yr_2024	0.4	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, one linear probability model for the survey year (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	2024	95% CI −1.3 to 2.1	4,411	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_act_any_cold_3	60.0%	percent of the group	weighted share, any campaign activity, group: cold only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	2012 to 2024	95% CI 58.3% to 61.8%	5,510	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_act_any_warm_3	54.6%	percent of the group	weighted share, any campaign activity, group: warm only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	2012 to 2024	95% CI 51.6% to 57.5%	2,011	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_house_both_1	89.1%	percent of the group	weighted share, party-line House vote, group: both (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	1978 to 1990	95% CI 86.3% to 91.4%	571	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_house_cold_1	89.9%	percent of the group	weighted share, party-line House vote, group: cold only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	1978 to 1990	95% CI 85.5% to 93.0%	247	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_house_cold_3	95.0%	percent of the group	weighted share, party-line House vote, group: cold only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 94.0% to 95.8%	4,397	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_house_warm_1	79.8%	percent of the group	weighted share, party-line House vote, group: warm only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	1978 to 1990	95% CI 78.0% to 81.5%	1,995	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_house_warm_3	89.9%	percent of the group	weighted share, party-line House vote, group: warm only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 87.5% to 91.9%	1,376	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_pres_both_3	99.2%	percent of the group	weighted share, party-line presidential vote, group: both (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 98.7% to 99.5%	4,393	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_pres_cold_3	98.1%	percent of the group	weighted share, party-line presidential vote, group: cold only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 97.5% to 98.5%	4,774	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_pres_neither_3	83.2%	percent of the group	weighted share, party-line presidential vote, group: neither (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 81.7% to 84.6%	4,794	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_pres_warm_3	95.4%	percent of the group	weighted share, party-line presidential vote, group: warm only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 93.8% to 96.6%	1,651	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_straight_both_1	87.3%	percent of the group	weighted share, straight-ticket vote, group: both (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House	1978 to 1990	95% CI 83.1% to 90.5%	306	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_straight_cold_1	88.6%	percent of the group	weighted share, straight-ticket vote, group: cold only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House	1978 to 1990	95% CI 81.1% to 93.3%	105	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_straight_cold_3	94.9%	percent of the group	weighted share, straight-ticket vote, group: cold only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House	2012 to 2024	95% CI 93.9% to 95.7%	4,232	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_straight_warm_1	76.9%	percent of the group	weighted share, straight-ticket vote, group: warm only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House	1978 to 1990	95% CI 74.1% to 79.5%	952	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_straight_warm_3	90.3%	percent of the group	weighted share, straight-ticket vote, group: warm only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House	2012 to 2024	95% CI 87.9% to 92.3%	1,351	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_turnout_cold_1	63.1%	percent of the group	weighted share, turnout, group: cold only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	1978 to 1990	95% CI 58.7% to 67.4%	472	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_turnout_cold_3	87.9%	percent of the group	weighted share, turnout, group: cold only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012 to 2024	95% CI 86.7% to 89.0%	5,582	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_turnout_warm_1	68.6%	percent of the group	weighted share, turnout, group: warm only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	1978 to 1990	95% CI 67.0% to 70.1%	3,405	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cell_turnout_warm_3	82.2%	percent of the group	weighted share, turnout, group: warm only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012 to 2024	95% CI 79.8% to 84.3%	2,043	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cellgap_act_any_1	3.5	percentage points	difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, any campaign activity (95% interval, independent groups)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	1978 to 1990	95% CI −1.3 to 8.3	3,848	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cellgap_act_any_3	5.4	percentage points	difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, any campaign activity (95% interval, independent groups)	partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions	2012 to 2024	95% CI 2.0 to 8.9	7,521	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cellgap_chg_house	−5.0	percentage points	change in the difference between the share among partisans cold only and the share among partisans warm only, party-line House vote (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI −9.8 to −0.3		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cellgap_chg_straight	−7.1	percentage points	change in the difference between the share among partisans cold only and the share among partisans warm only, straight-ticket vote (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI −14.2 to 0.0		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cellgap_chg_turnout	11.2	percentage points	change in the difference between the share among partisans cold only and the share among partisans warm only, turnout (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI 5.9 to 16.5		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cellgap_house_1	10.1	percentage points	difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, party-line House vote (95% interval, independent groups)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	1978 to 1990	95% CI 5.9 to 14.2	2,242	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cellgap_house_3	5.1	percentage points	difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, party-line House vote (95% interval, independent groups)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 2.7 to 7.4	5,773	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cellgap_pres_1	6.0	percentage points	difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, party-line presidential vote (95% interval, independent groups)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	1978 to 1990	95% CI 2.3 to 9.6	1,221	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cellgap_pres_3	2.6	percentage points	difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, party-line presidential vote (95% interval, independent groups)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 1.2 to 4.1	6,425	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cellgap_straight_1	11.7	percentage points	difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, straight-ticket vote (95% interval, independent groups)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House	1978 to 1990	95% CI 5.0 to 18.4	1,057	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cellgap_straight_3	4.6	percentage points	difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, straight-ticket vote (95% interval, independent groups)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House	2012 to 2024	95% CI 2.2 to 6.9	5,583	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cellgap_turnout_1	−5.5	percentage points	difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, turnout (95% interval, independent groups)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	1978 to 1990	95% CI −10.1 to −0.8	3,877	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cellgap_turnout_3	5.7	percentage points	difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, turnout (95% interval, independent groups)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012 to 2024	95% CI 3.2 to 8.3	7,625	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
corr_1	−0.06	correlation coefficient	weighted correlation between the rating of the own party and the rating of the other party, each centered on its survey-year mean (Fisher z interval on the Kish effective sample size)	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	1978 to 1990	95% CI −0.08 to −0.04	11,264	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
corr_3	−0.23	correlation coefficient	weighted correlation between the rating of the own party and the rating of the other party, each centered on its survey-year mean (Fisher z interval on the Kish effective sample size)	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	2012 to 2024	95% CI −0.25 to −0.21	20,943	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cut_cold_loose	30	points on the feeling thermometer	cut-off chosen by the author (a definition, not an estimate)	cut-off between a rating that counts as very cold toward the other party and one that does not	1978 to 2024			none (constant)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cut_cold_strict	15	points on the feeling thermometer	cut-off chosen by the author (a definition, not an estimate)	cut-off between a rating that counts as very cold toward the other party and one that does not	1978 to 2024			none (constant)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cut_warm_loose	70	points on the feeling thermometer	cut-off chosen by the author (a definition, not an estimate)	cut-off between a rating that counts as very warm toward the own party and one that does not	1978 to 2024			none (constant)	ANES Cumulative Data File
cut_warm_strict	85	points on the feeling thermometer	cut-off chosen by the author (a definition, not an estimate)	cut-off between a rating that counts as very warm toward the own party and one that does not	1978 to 2024			none (constant)	ANES Cumulative Data File
floor_cell	100	respondents	minimum number of respondents (and of effective respondents) for a plotted cell	cells of a table of shares or coefficients	1978 to 2024			none (constant)	ANES Cumulative Data File
floor_year	150	respondents	minimum number of respondents who answered the behavior question for a yearly estimate	yearly models	1978 to 2024			none (constant)	ANES Cumulative Data File
gmode_ftf_cold	19.5%	percent of partisans	weighted share in the group cold only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews	95% CI 17.8% to 21.2%	3,787	weight_ftf (VCF0009x)	ANES Cumulative Data File
gmode_ftf_warm	13.5%	percent of partisans	weighted share in the group warm only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews	95% CI 12.1% to 15.0%	3,787	weight_ftf (VCF0009x)	ANES Cumulative Data File
gmode_web_cold	29.1%	percent of partisans	weighted share in the group cold only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews	95% CI 27.8% to 30.4%	7,712	weight_web (VCF0009y)	ANES Cumulative Data File
gmode_web_warm	11.0%	percent of partisans	weighted share in the group warm only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews	95% CI 10.1% to 11.9%	7,712	weight_web (VCF0009y)	ANES Cumulative Data File
gshare_strict_both_1	8.9%	percent of partisans	weighted share in the group both (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	1978 to 1990	95% CI 8.4% to 9.4%	11,264	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
gshare_strict_both_3	25.2%	percent of partisans	weighted share in the group both (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	2012 to 2024	95% CI 24.4% to 26.0%	20,943	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
gshare_strict_cold_1	4.4%	percent of partisans	weighted share in the group cold only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	1978 to 1990	95% CI 4.0% to 4.8%	11,264	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
gshare_strict_cold_3	28.1%	percent of partisans	weighted share in the group cold only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	2012 to 2024	95% CI 27.3% to 28.9%	20,943	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
gshare_strict_warm_1	32.0%	percent of partisans	weighted share in the group warm only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	1978 to 1990	95% CI 31.2% to 32.9%	11,264	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
gshare_strict_warm_3	10.5%	percent of partisans	weighted share in the group warm only (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	2012 to 2024	95% CI 9.9% to 11.1%	20,943	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_alone_diff_3	1.2	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, each feeling in its own model, per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 0.7 to 1.6	13,912	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_chg	1.5	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI 0.5 to 2.5		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_chg_ftf	1.5	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI −0.1 to 3.1		weight_ftf (VCF0009x)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_chg_logit	0.11	log-odds of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, log-odds coefficient in a weighted logistic regression with year fixed effects, per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI 0.04 to 0.18		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_chg_logit_ftf	0.16	log-odds of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, log-odds coefficient in a weighted logistic regression with year fixed effects, per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI 0.00 to 0.31		weight_ftf (VCF0009x)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_chg_logit_p	0.10	log-odds of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, log-odds coefficient in a weighted logistic regression with year fixed effects, per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only	95% CI 0.02 to 0.19		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_chg_logit_web	0.08	log-odds of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, log-odds coefficient in a weighted logistic regression with year fixed effects, per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI −0.01 to 0.18		weight_web (VCF0009y)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_chg_loose	4.29	percentage points of the outcome between groups	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the loose cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI 0.03 to 8.55		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_chg_p	1.3	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only	95% CI 0.0 to 2.7		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_chg_strict	2.7	percentage points of the outcome between groups	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the strict cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI −1.4 to 6.8		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_chg_web	1.2	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI 0.0 to 2.4		weight_web (VCF0009y)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_cold_3	3.5	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness toward the other party on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 3.1 to 3.9	13,912	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_cold_slope	0.1	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade	change per decade in the coldness coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	1978 to 2024 (18 surveys)	95% CI −0.1 to 0.3	26,113	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_controls_diff_3	1.2	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, party, strength of identification, education, age and interest in the campaign held fixed, per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 0.6 to 1.9	13,254	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_diff_1	0.0	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	1978 to 1990	95% CI −0.8 to 0.9	5,930	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_diff_2	0.2	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	1992 to 2008	95% CI −0.6 to 1.1	6,271	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_diff_3	1.6	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 1.0 to 2.1	13,912	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_diff_ftf	1.5	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews	95% CI 0.2 to 2.9	2,283	weight_ftf (VCF0009x)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_diff_web	1.2	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews	95% CI 0.4 to 2.1	4,990	weight_web (VCF0009y)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_diffp_1	0.2	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	1978 to 1990, presidential election years only	95% CI −1.0 to 1.5	2,792	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_noleaner_diff_3	0.7	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, leaners excluded, per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI −0.1 to 1.4	10,454	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_slope	0.5	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade	change per decade in the coldness-minus-warmth difference, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	1978 to 2024 (18 surveys)	95% CI 0.2 to 0.7	26,113	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_slope_p	0.5	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade	change per decade in the coldness-minus-warmth difference, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	1980 to 2024, presidential election years only	95% CI 0.1 to 0.8	21,581	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_strict_diff_1	5.6	percentage points of the outcome between groups	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the strict cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	1978 to 1990	95% CI 1.9 to 9.2	5,930	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_warm_3	1.9	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	warmth toward the own party on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 1.5 to 2.3	13,912	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_warm_slope	−0.4	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade	change per decade in the warmth coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	1978 to 2024 (18 surveys)	95% CI −0.5 to −0.2	26,113	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_yr_2020	2.3	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, one linear probability model for the survey year (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2020	95% CI 1.3 to 3.3	4,929	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
house_yr_2024	0.6	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, one linear probability model for the survey year (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2024	95% CI −0.5 to 1.7	3,515	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
item_button_diff_1	−0.5	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on act_button, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the question on whether they displayed a button or sticker	1978 to 1990	95% CI −0.9 to −0.1	10,656	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
item_button_diff_3	−0.1	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on act_button, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the question on whether they displayed a button or sticker	2012 to 2024	95% CI −0.7 to 0.4	18,889	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
item_meeting_diff_3	0.3	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on act_meeting, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the question on whether they attended a political meeting or rally	2012 to 2024	95% CI −0.1 to 0.7	18,886	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
item_money_diff_3	1.9	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on act_money, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the question on whether they gave money to a party or candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 1.4 to 2.4	18,708	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
item_persuade_diff_3	1.9	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on act_persuade, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the question on whether they tried to persuade others how to vote	2012 to 2024	95% CI 1.1 to 2.6	18,886	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
item_work_diff_3	0.3	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on act_work, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the question on whether they worked for a party or candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 0.0 to 0.7	18,892	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
lean_anes_2020	56.0%	percent of respondents who reported a major-party presidential vote	weighted share reporting a Democratic vote (95% Wilson interval)	ANES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate	2020	95% CI 54.3% to 57.7%	6,119	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
lean_anes_2024	55.3%	percent of respondents who reported a major-party presidential vote	weighted share reporting a Democratic vote (95% Wilson interval)	ANES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate	2024	95% CI 53.0% to 57.5%	3,948	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
lean_county_2020	52.3%	percent of the two-party presidential vote	Democratic share of the two-party vote, summed over counties	votes cast for the Democratic or Republican candidate in all counties except Alaska	2020			none (full counts)	County election returns
lean_county_2024	49.3%	percent of the two-party presidential vote	Democratic share of the two-party vote, summed over counties	votes cast for the Democratic or Republican candidate in all counties except Alaska	2024			none (full counts)	County election returns
leaner_share_1	27%	percent of partisans	weighted share who lean toward a party and do not identify with it	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	1978 to 1990			weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
leaner_share_3	27%	percent of partisans	weighted share who lean toward a party and do not identify with it	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	2012 to 2024			weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
midterm_share_1	56%	percent of respondents	share of the sample interviewed in a midterm election year (respondent count)	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	1978 to 1990		11,264	none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File
midterm_share_2	25%	percent of respondents	share of the sample interviewed in a midterm election year (respondent count)	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	1992 to 2008		10,856	none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File
n_chk_cells	25	count	count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption)	estimates shown in the chapter's figures	1978 to 2024			none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File
n_chk_excl	21	count	count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption)	estimates shown in the chapter's figures	1978 to 2024			none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File
n_chk_incl	4	count	count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption)	estimates shown in the chapter's figures	1978 to 2024			none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File
n_cut_cells	20	count	count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption)	estimates shown in the chapter's figures	1978 to 2024			none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File
n_cut_chg_cells	20	count	count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption)	estimates shown in the chapter's figures	1978 to 2024			none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File
n_cut_chg_pos	12	count	count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption)	estimates shown in the chapter's figures	1978 to 2024			none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File
n_cut_incl_1	12	count	count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption)	estimates shown in the chapter's figures	1978 to 2024			none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File
n_ld_waves	7	surveys	count of survey years	ANES time-series studies with the like-dislike scale for both parties	1996 to 2024			none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File
n_resp	43,063	respondents	count of respondents in the sample	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	18 surveys, 1978 to 2024			none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File
n_waves	18	surveys	count of survey years	ANES time-series studies with both party thermometers	1978 to 2024			none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File
n_yr	78	count	count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption)	estimates shown in the chapter's figures	1978 to 2024			none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File
n_yr_neg	3	count	count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption)	estimates shown in the chapter's figures	1978 to 2024			none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File
n_yr_pos	14	count	count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption)	estimates shown in the chapter's figures	1978 to 2024			none (count)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_alone_diff_3	0.5	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, each feeling in its own model, per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 0.1 to 0.9	15,612	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_chg	0.8	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI −0.2 to 1.9		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_chg_hi	1.9	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	upper end of the 95% interval for the change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods (independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990			weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_chg_logit	−0.01	log-odds of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, log-odds coefficient in a weighted logistic regression with year fixed effects, per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI −0.11 to 0.09		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_chg_loose	8.4	percentage points of the outcome between groups	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the loose cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI 4.0 to 12.8		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_chg_sd	0.4	percentage points of the outcome per standard deviation of the rating	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per within-year standard deviation (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI −1.7 to 2.6		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_chg_strict	6.1	percentage points of the outcome between groups	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the strict cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI 2.5 to 9.7		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_cold_slope	−0.1	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade	change per decade in the coldness coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	1978 to 2024 (18 surveys)	95% CI −0.3 to 0.1	24,102	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_controls_diff_3	0.6	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, party, strength of identification, education, age and interest in the campaign held fixed, per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 0.1 to 1.1	14,882	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_diff_1	−0.1	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	1978 to 1990	95% CI −1.1 to 0.9	3,090	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_diff_2	−0.4	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	1992 to 2008	95% CI −1.1 to 0.4	5,400	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_diff_3	0.7	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 0.3 to 1.2	15,612	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_diff_3y	0.54	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012, 2016 and 2024, all interviews	95% CI −0.05 to 1.12	10,032	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_diff_ftf	0.9	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews	95% CI −0.4 to 2.3	2,620	weight_ftf (VCF0009x)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_diff_web	0.5	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews	95% CI −0.2 to 1.1	5,586	weight_web (VCF0009y)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_ld_diff_3	0.3	percentage points of the outcome per scale point of the like-dislike scale	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, the 0 to 10 like-dislike scale for each party, per scale point (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI −0.2 to 0.8	15,238	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_logit_diff_1	0.09	log-odds of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, log-odds coefficient in a weighted logistic regression with year fixed effects, per 10 rating points (95% interval, probability-weight sandwich)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	1978 to 1990	95% CI 0.01 to 0.17	3,090	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_logit_diff_3	0.08	log-odds of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, log-odds coefficient in a weighted logistic regression with year fixed effects, per 10 rating points (95% interval, probability-weight sandwich)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 0.02 to 0.14	15,612	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_noleaner_diff_3	0.3	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, leaners excluded, per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI −0.3 to 0.9	11,862	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_slope	0.3	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade	change per decade in the coldness-minus-warmth difference, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	1978 to 2024 (18 surveys)	95% CI 0.1 to 0.6	24,102	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
pres_warm_slope	−0.4	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade	change per decade in the warmth coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	1978 to 2024 (18 surveys)	95% CI −0.6 to −0.2	24,102	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
rate_house_1	77.1%	percent of partisans	weighted share acting (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	1978 to 1990	95% CI 76.0% to 78.1%	5,930	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
rate_house_3	90.0%	percent of partisans	weighted share acting (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 89.3% to 90.7%	13,912	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
rate_pres_1	85.9%	percent of partisans	weighted share acting (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	1978 to 1990	95% CI 84.6% to 87.0%	3,090	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
rate_pres_3	93.3%	percent of partisans	weighted share acting (95% Wilson interval)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate	2012 to 2024	95% CI 92.7% to 93.8%	15,612	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
step	10	points on the feeling thermometer	size of the change in a rating that a coefficient describes (a definition, not an estimate)	the unit in which coefficients are reported	1978 to 2024			none (constant)	ANES Cumulative Data File
straight_chg	0.6	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI −0.8 to 2.0		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
straight_chg_loose	−2.5	percentage points of the outcome between groups	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the loose cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI −8.5 to 3.5		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
straight_chg_strict	−0.3	percentage points of the outcome between groups	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the strict cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI −6.2 to 5.7		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
straight_cold_slope	−0.2	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade	change per decade in the coldness coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House	1978 to 2024 (18 surveys)	95% CI −0.4 to 0.0	20,625	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
straight_diff_1	0.8	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on straight-ticket vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House	1978 to 1990	95% CI −0.5 to 2.1	2,662	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
straight_diff_3	1.3	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on straight-ticket vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House	2012 to 2024	95% CI 0.8 to 1.9	13,435	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
straight_noleaner_diff_3	0.8	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on straight-ticket vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, leaners excluded, per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House	2012 to 2024	95% CI 0.1 to 1.4	10,207	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
straight_slope	0.2	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade	change per decade in the coldness-minus-warmth difference, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House	1978 to 2024 (18 surveys)	95% CI −0.1 to 0.6	20,625	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
straight_strict_diff_1	7.2	percentage points of the outcome between groups	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on straight-ticket vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the strict cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House	1978 to 1990	95% CI 1.6 to 12.8	2,662	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
straight_warm_slope	−0.4	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade	change per decade in the warmth coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House	1978 to 2024 (18 surveys)	95% CI −0.6 to −0.2	20,625	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
therm_max	100	points on the feeling thermometer	highest answer the feeling thermometer allows (a definition of the scale, not an estimate)	answers to the feeling thermometer	1978 to 2024			none (constant)	ANES Cumulative Data File
therm_min	0	points on the feeling thermometer	lowest answer the feeling thermometer allows (a definition of the scale, not an estimate)	answers to the feeling thermometer	1978 to 2024			none (constant)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_chg	2.6	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI 1.7 to 3.6		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_chg_ftf	3.5	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI 2.0 to 4.9		weight_ftf (VCF0009x)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_chg_loose	9.1	percentage points of the outcome between groups	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the loose cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI 5.2 to 13.1		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_chg_p	2.0	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only	95% CI 0.8 to 3.3		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_chg_p_ftf	2.9	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews minus 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only	95% CI 1.2 to 4.5		weight_ftf (VCF0009x)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_chg_p_web	1.7	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews minus 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only	95% CI 0.3 to 3.1		weight_web (VCF0009y)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_chg_sd	5.0	percentage points of the outcome per standard deviation of the rating	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per within-year standard deviation (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI 3.2 to 6.8		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_chg_strict	10.1	percentage points of the outcome between groups	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the strict cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI 5.9 to 14.3		weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_chg_web	2.3	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews minus 1978 to 1990	95% CI 1.2 to 3.5		weight_web (VCF0009y)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_cold_slope	0.2	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade	change per decade in the coldness coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	1978 to 2024 (18 surveys)	95% CI 0.1 to 0.4	39,678	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_diff_1	−1.1	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	1978 to 1990	95% CI −1.8 to −0.4	10,692	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_diff_2	1.1	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	1992 to 2008	95% CI 0.3 to 1.9	10,010	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_diff_3	1.6	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012 to 2024	95% CI 1.0 to 2.2	18,976	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_diff_ftf	2.4	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews	95% CI 1.1 to 3.7	3,476	weight_ftf (VCF0009x)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_diff_web	1.3	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews	95% CI 0.3 to 2.2	6,861	weight_web (VCF0009y)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_diffm_1	−1.5	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	1978 to 1990, midterm years only	95% CI −2.4 to −0.5	6,348	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_diffp_1	−0.5	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	1978 to 1990, presidential election years only	95% CI −1.5 to 0.6	4,344	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_ld_diff_3	0.3	percentage points of the outcome per scale point of the like-dislike scale	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, the 0 to 10 like-dislike scale for each party, per scale point (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012 to 2024	95% CI −0.4 to 0.9	18,479	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_noleaner_diff_3	1.5	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, leaners excluded, per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	2012 to 2024	95% CI 0.8 to 2.2	13,947	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_slope	0.5	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade	change per decade in the coldness-minus-warmth difference, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	1978 to 2024 (18 surveys)	95% CI 0.3 to 0.8	39,678	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_slope_p	0.3	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade	change per decade in the coldness-minus-warmth difference, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	1980 to 2024, presidential election years only	95% CI 0.0 to 0.6	30,661	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
turnout_warm_slope	−0.3	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade	change per decade in the warmth coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3)	partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question	1978 to 2024 (18 surveys)	95% CI −0.5 to −0.1	39,678	weight (VCF0009z)	ANES Cumulative Data File
wcheck_max	0.5	percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points	largest absolute difference, across five outcomes and those surveys, between a yearly coefficient (coldness, warmth or their difference) with the full-sample weight and with the post-election weight	partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties	the 7 surveys that have a post-election weight			weight (VCF0009z) and weight_postelection	ANES Cumulative Data File

Definitions

Partisan leaner: A respondent who first says they are independent but, when asked, says they lean toward one party. Most figures group leaners with the party they lean toward, and each chapter says which grouping it uses.
Feeling thermometer: A 0 to 100 rating of a group or person, where 0 is the coldest feeling and 100 the warmest. The American National Election Studies ask respondents to rate parties, candidates and social groups this way.
Percentage point: The unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused.
Survey weights: Numbers that scale each respondent so the sample matches the population on known traits such as age, race, education and region. A weighted average counts a respondent with a large weight for more than one with a small weight.
HC3 robust standard errors: A way of computing standard errors that stays valid when the spread of the outcome differs across respondents, with a correction for small samples. The book uses it for regressions that have no clusters.
Effective sample size: The number of equally weighted respondents that would give the same precision as the weighted sample. It is smaller than the raw count when the weights vary a lot, and it sets how wide the confidence interval is.
Linear probability model: A regression of a yes-or-no outcome on predictors, fitted by least squares so that each coefficient is a change in the probability of yes. The book weights it and reports robust standard errors.

Methods

Sample. Respondents to the American National Election Studies (ANES) time series, from the Cumulative Data File, who identify as Democrats or Republicans on the seven-point party identification scale with leaners included (codes 1 to 3 and 5 to 7) and who gave a valid rating of both parties on the 0 to 100 feeling thermometer: 43,063 respondents in 18 surveys from 1978 to 2024 (the surveys with party thermometers; the 2002 study has none). Pure independents are left out because they have no own party. Each survey is a separate cross-section of people, so every result describes how ratings and behavior go together among partisans interviewed in the same year and not how any one person changed.

Feelings. Warmth is the rating of the respondent's own party. Coldness is 100 minus the rating of the other party, so that a higher value is colder and a coefficient on coldness can be set beside a coefficient on warmth. Coefficients are reported per 10 rating points, or per standard deviation (each rating standardized within its survey year over the whole paired sample, weighted), or between groups. The classification used for the group comparisons marks a partisan as very cold toward the other party when the other-party rating is 15 or lower and as very warm toward the own party when the own-party rating is 85 or higher (the strict cut-offs, each 35 points from the midpoint of 50), with 30 and 70 as the looser pair (20 points from the midpoint). Four groups follow: neither, warm only, cold only and both. Respondents give 15, 30, 70 and 85 more often than the values next to them, so each cut-off sits on a common answer and includes it. A second measure of feeling, the 0 to 10 like-dislike scale for each party (asked in 1996, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024), is put in the same direction, and one scale point corresponds to 10 rating points.

Behavior. Party-line presidential vote is a vote for the own party's candidate among partisans who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate (VCF0704); defection is one minus this share. Party-line House vote is the same for the House candidate (VCF0707). Straight ticket is a vote for the same party for president and the House among partisans who reported both, the complement of ticket splitting (VCF0709); it is rebuilt from VCF0704 and VCF0707 in every year because the file carries VCF0709 only through 2020, and the rebuilt variable equals VCF0709 for every respondent who has both. Reported turnout is the report of having voted (VCF0702). Campaign activity is a yes to at least one of five questions, whether the respondent tried to influence how others vote (VCF0717), attended a meeting or rally (VCF0718), worked for a party or candidate (VCF0719), displayed a button or sticker (VCF0720) or gave money (VCF0721), with all five answered. All behaviors are self-reports, and the vote items are asked only of respondents who reported voting.

Estimators. For each behavior and period, a weighted linear probability model of the 0/1 behavior on coldness and warmth with survey-year fixed effects and HC3 heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (MacKinnon and White, 1985); the difference between the two coefficients (coldness minus warmth) and its interval come from the joint covariance matrix. The three periods are 1978 to 1990 (7 surveys), 1992 to 2008 (7 surveys) and 2012 to 2024 (4 surveys), fixed before estimation. The change between two periods is the difference of two independent estimates and combines their standard errors in quadrature. Yearly estimates fit the same model to one survey year without fixed effects. The trend per decade interacts coldness and warmth with decades since 2001 in a model with year fixed effects. The logit check fits a weighted logistic regression and uses a probability-weight sandwich covariance with an n/(n-k) factor. The check with each rating alone stacks the two single-rating models and clusters on the respondent so that their difference has an interval. The controls check adds party, strength of identification (strong, weak, leaner), education (four categories), age and interest in the campaign (three categories; complete cases). Group shares carry Wilson intervals on the Kish effective sample size, and the difference between two groups combines the two normal standard errors. Correlations use Fisher z on the Kish effective sample size, with each rating centered on its survey-year mean. All intervals treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample and ignore the strata and clusters of the ANES design, which the Cumulative File does not carry.

Election type. Presidential voting and the straight ticket exist only in presidential election years. House voting, reported turnout and campaign activity also exist in midterm years, which are 56% of the respondents in 1978 to 1990, 25% in 1992 to 2008 and none in 2012 to 2024. The presidential-years-only comparisons keep 1980, 1984 and 1988 from the earliest period (and every presidential year of the middle one), the midterm-only estimates use 1978, 1982, 1986 and 1990, and the trend per decade is also fitted on presidential years alone.

Weights. The full-sample weight VCF0009z for all estimates. Mode: weight_ftf (VCF0009x) on the fresh face-to-face sample and weight_web (VCF0009y) on the fresh web sample, which exist for 2008 (face to face only), 2012, 2016 and 2024; the 2020 study has no mode weights, and the 2024 re-interviewed panel and paper respondents belong to neither mode group. Mode estimates pool 2012, 2016 and 2024 and are set against the 1978 to 1990 estimate (all years of that period, and its presidential years alone), which comes from studies interviewed mainly in person. A check with the post-election weight, available in the file for 7 surveys, changes a yearly coefficient or difference by at most 0.5 points.

Lean of the self-reported vote. Among all ANES respondents who reported a vote for the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate, the weighted Democratic share is 56.0% in 2020 and 55.3% in 2024; the Democratic share of the two-party vote in county returns, Alaska excluded, is 52.3% and 49.3%.

Suppression. Cells of group shares need at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100. A yearly model needs at least 150 respondents who answered the behavior question and an effective sample of 100 or more. Every pooled period estimate rests on at least 1,394 respondents.

What these data cannot show

The comparison is between two feelings measured in the same survey as the behavior.
A respondent who voted for a party's candidate may rate that party warmer afterward, and a respondent who dislikes the other party may be more willing to say that they voted or took part, so the coefficients cannot say which way the association runs.
Interest in politics, strength of party identification, ideology and age may each raise warmth, coldness and behavior together.
The checks hold a few of them fixed and do not hold ideology or issue positions fixed.
Ratings of the parties may also reflect feelings about party elites more than about other citizens [9], and the party rating is not the rating of the presidential nominee, which goes with the presidential vote and is studied in Chapter 2.2, Feelings toward the other party (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/feelings-toward-the-other-party).
The behaviors are reports.
Validation against public records finds that survey respondents consistently overreport voting and that the nonvoters who say they voted tend to be politically engaged [10].
The file has no validated-vote variable, so the turnout results describe respondents who say they voted, and overreporting that is concentrated among engaged partisans could change the comparison of coldness and warmth.
The self-reported vote also leans Democratic: among respondents who reported a major-party presidential vote, 56.0% reported a Democratic vote in 2020 and 55.3% in 2024, against 52.3% and 49.3% of the two-party vote in county returns, Alaska excluded.
The party-line measures compare each partisan with the own party's candidate, so they are less exposed to that lean than a vote share is.
The vote items cover only partisans who reported voting for a major-party candidate, so partisans who stayed home or chose a third-party candidate, among whom coldness toward both parties may be common, are outside them.
Party-line voting is near its ceiling in recent years, which limits how much any coefficient can show, and the log-odds check addresses scale and not selection.
The results come from repeated cross-sections, so they cannot show that any partisan grew colder or that any partisan's behavior changed as feelings changed.
A panel that follows the same people is needed for that, and the ANES 2016, 2020 and 2024 panel is not in the files used here.
The three periods were fixed before estimation, but their boundaries are a choice, and the per-decade slope and the yearly figure are there so that the result does not rest on them alone.
The periods also differ in election type, and the presidential-years comparisons use three early studies.
The 2012 to 2024 sample includes 2020, which has no mode weights, so the mode comparison covers 2012, 2016 and 2024 only.
The intervals are model based and ignore the ANES sampling design.
The chapter reports five behaviors, three periods and several measures without adjusting for multiple comparisons, so an interval that excludes zero in one cell is weaker evidence than it looks.
What the ratings go with in views about political violence and democratic norms belongs to Chapter 5.4, Political violence and democratic norms (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/political-violence-and-democratic-norms), and who turns out to vote belongs to Chapter 3.1, Turnout (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/turnout).

References

MacKinnon, James G.; White, Halbert (1985). Some Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimators with Improved Finite Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics 29(3): 305-325. doi:10.1016/0304-4076(85)90158-7
Wilson, Edwin B. (1927). Probable Inference, the Law of Succession, and Statistical Inference. Journal of the American Statistical Association 22(158): 209-212. doi:10.1080/01621459.1927.10502953
Kish, Leslie (1965). Survey Sampling. John Wiley and Sons.
Abramowitz, Alan I.; Webster, Steven W. (2016). The Rise of Negative Partisanship and the Nationalization of U.S. Elections in the 21st Century. Electoral Studies 41: 12-22. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.001
Abramowitz, Alan I.; Webster, Steven W. (2018). Negative Partisanship: Why Americans Dislike Parties But Behave Like Rabid Partisans. Political Psychology 39(S1): 119-135. doi:10.1111/pops.12479
Caruana, Nicholas J.; McGregor, R. Michael; Stephenson, Laura B. (2015). The Power of the Dark Side: Negative Partisanship and Political Behaviour in Canada. Canadian Journal of Political Science 48(4): 771-789. doi:10.1017/S0008423914000882
Medeiros, Mike; Noël, Alain (2014). The Forgotten Side of Partisanship: Negative Party Identification in Four Anglo-American Democracies. Comparative Political Studies 47(7): 1022-1046. doi:10.1177/0010414013488560
Bankert, Alexa (2021). Negative and Positive Partisanship in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections. Political Behavior 43(4): 1467-1485. doi:10.1007/s11109-020-09599-1
Druckman, James N.; Levendusky, Matthew S. (2019). What Do We Measure When We Measure Affective Polarization?. Public Opinion Quarterly 83(1): 114-122. doi:10.1093/poq/nfz003
Ansolabehere, Stephen; Hersh, Eitan (2012). Validation: What Big Data Reveal About Survey Misreporting and the Real Electorate. Political Analysis 20(4): 437-459. doi:10.1093/pan/mps023

Provenance

Pipeline version: 1.0.0
Build script: book3/chapters/negative-partisanship/build.py (sha256 c768cf95e245ad5b298018e7a6c0c254c2840f064f15e573381a70bfa0f1b4d3)
Built on: 2026-10-03
Site commit: 16414b2c7257546a7042d0b1734657f208999f60

Inputs

File	Size (bytes)	SHA-256, first 1 MB	SHA-256, last 1 MB
data/anes/anes_cdf_clean.parquet	15,640,720	b3f0c2d8ae5673b2c40cf6df71318ea3f712cd845c4f1aad0460f28d1b022643	04f06dae56b65649291caf6cf77aab9767d9c92d0c2669c6d3655d9063970583
data/county/pres_county_1868_2024.parquet	6,295,675	bec11c7a0cb5d4180bbd6809d048bc892dd00dfcdde527fa4da871b1dd3f835f	b2a4f000f2eea72d09af8939555289e924875cca40cd95ec8869104cd575bed7

Outputs

File	SHA-256
facts.json	94aada9675e8d45c4a9d30335a094512e2f6a09c2135cee40fcc2cf987177d06
figures/by_period.json	43ae5fb9dd224fb066cb8f268a14d653c101fba416e5375c4f8f9d78403674d9
figures/cells.json	1275025394ad67b3abd356bc71b50565d561401ebb182b95ee4297091b0e7a8e
figures/change.json	a7abb35df6b101d40828a18386d252b4b9b67ae2c0b5e5ac8d92122ab9769fab
figures/checks.json	db76dc8f91b24b4c8a0d8fdbebb1930ec73d6552de6634891145a502754e58dc
figures/cutoffs.json	a2cbfe4c0579d0c2d9f170460a9312f91e1678e47795beed4e59b5b86519ba69
figures/group_shares.json	fb19e4ab814fea8ff5dba719fb7cbac69d21e91690d43d437349f29243e3ae59
figures/items.json	7b8bcad8d9e502e7ec0184edc667d29df727aa07a4ff6e62a7c143a4ad006da4
figures/mode.json	41825c7920f778f70facc20c0183676ebe0a25aef6a40472baea5b9fa73e1733
figures/yearly.json	6ee25ab48c8335d36039fc852a5ab850c5df95e7ab711d4c13e26da035bb56dd
meta.json	9c356b83b2a3c11c31b5b2d752fb8e041bfadf033594d53ed0b74991a7aa84d0
refs.json	5efba825458f058fbd084923a2e702dc330b8a08e45b4fe37d368a757966aa8b

Machine formats

Report (Markdown): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/negative-partisanship/report.md
Every estimate (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/facts.json
Table 1, figure "group_shares" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/group_shares.json
Table 2, figure "cells" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/cells.json
Table 3, figure "by_period" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/by_period.json
Table 4, figure "yearly" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/yearly.json
Table 5, figure "mode" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/mode.json
Table 6, figure "change" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/change.json
Table 7, figure "cutoffs" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/cutoffs.json
Table 8, figure "checks" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/checks.json
Table 9, figure "items" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/items.json
Index of every report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms.txt; all reports in one file: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms-full.txt