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The Public Mind

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    Chapter 4.5

    Perceptions of the economy

    In the American National Election Studies from 2012 to 2024, the president's partisans were 34.0 points more likely than the other party's partisans to say the economy had gotten better over the past year.

    Affiliation
    NYU Stern
    Published
    DraftFigures and numbers may change as the analysis is rebuilt.what is still being checked

    Measured unemployment and inflation are not yet in this chapter, so the low-premium surveys are read through what the parties said and through presidential approval.

    In the American National Election Studies (ANES) of 2016, with a Democrat in the White House, the share of Democrats saying the national economy had gotten better over the past year exceeded the Republican share by +33.8+33.8 percentage points, Democratic minus RepublicanEstimandDemocratic share saying better minus Republican share, weightedInterval95% CI 30.5 to 37.0n3,660Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationANES respondents who identify with or lean toward a party and answered the itemPeriod2016SourceANES Cumulative Data File pointsPercentage pointThe unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused..Democrats and Republicans include independents who say they lean toward a party, the leanersPartisan leanerA respondent who first says they are independent but, when asked, says they lean toward one party. Most figures group leaners with the party they lean toward, and each chapter says which grouping it uses., throughout this essay. Pure independents are left out. In 2020, with a Republican in the White House, the Democratic share minus the Republican share was −31.0−31.0 percentage points, Democratic minus RepublicanEstimandDemocratic share saying better minus Republican share, weightedInterval95% CI −33.3 to −28.7n7,254Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationANES respondents who identify with or lean toward a party and answered the itemPeriod2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File points. The question was the same in both years. The party in the White House had changed, and the two parties' verdicts had reversed.

    The president's party has the higher share in every survey

    In 2016, 45%45.0% percent of partisans who said the economy got betterEstimandweighted share saying betterInterval95% CI 42.3% to 47.7%n1,934Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocrats including leanersPeriod2016SourceANES Cumulative Data File of Democrats and 11%11.2% percent of partisans who said the economy got betterEstimandweighted share saying betterInterval95% CI 9.6% to 13.1%n1,726Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublicans including leanersPeriod2016SourceANES Cumulative Data File of Republicans said the economy had gotten better, and in 2020 the shares were 5%5.2% percent of partisans who said the economy got betterEstimandweighted share saying betterInterval95% CI 4.3% to 6.3%n3,829Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocrats including leanersPeriod2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File and 36%36.2% percent of partisans who said the economy got betterEstimandweighted share saying betterInterval95% CI 34.1% to 38.4%n3,425Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublicans including leanersPeriod2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File. The president's party had the higher share in every ANES survey since 1980 and in every Cooperative Election Study (CES) survey since 2006. The chapter calls the difference the in-party premium: the share of the president's party who say the economy got better minus the share of the other party who say so, in points. In the four ANES surveys from 2012 to 2024 the premium averaged 34.034.0 percentage pointsEstimandmean of the yearly premiums, each survey counted once; the interval covers sampling error within each survey onlyInterval95% CI 32.5 to 35.4n20,874Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationANES respondents who identify with or lean toward a party and answered the itemPeriod2012 to 2024 (four surveys)SourceANES Cumulative Data File points. The gap between Democrats and Republicans, by contrast, changes sign at every change of party in the White House.

    Figure 1 plots the two parties' answers in each ANES survey since 1980 over a background shaded by the president's party. The line for the party in office is above the other line in every survey, and the two lines cross at every change of party. The difference between them has a 95% interval above zero in every survey except 1980, 1990 and 1994, years taken up below. The CES asks the item every year. Its lines cross between 2008 and 2009, between 2016 and 2017 and between 2020 and 2021, so the reversal takes place within one year of each change of party.

    Figure 1

    Each party is more likely to say the economy improved when its own party holds the White House

    Share of partisans (leaners included) saying the national economy got better over the past year, percent, by party; ANES, 1980 to 2024

    Said the economy got better (% of partisans)

    Show data
    Data for Each party is more likely to say the economy improved when its own party holds the White House
    Survey yearGroupingGroupPresidentShare saying better (%)Interval lowInterval highn
    1980partyDemocratsCarter4.33.15.9818
    1980partyRepublicansCarter2.91.74.7523
    1980rolePresident's partyCarter4.33.15.9818
    1980roleOther partyCarter2.91.74.7523
    1982partyDemocratsReagan6.65.08.6758
    1982partyRepublicansReagan22.819.126.9435
    1982rolePresident's partyReagan22.819.126.9435
    1982roleOther partyReagan6.65.08.6758
    1984partyDemocratsReagan25.923.328.61,013
    1984partyRepublicansReagan63.860.667.0868
    1984rolePresident's partyReagan63.860.667.0868
    1984roleOther partyReagan25.923.328.61,013
    1986partyDemocratsReagan17.715.520.21,043
    1986partyRepublicansReagan32.329.135.7755
    1986rolePresident's partyReagan32.329.135.7755
    1986roleOther partyReagan17.715.520.21,043
    1988partyDemocratsReagan10.88.912.9920
    1988partyRepublicansReagan29.126.032.3801
    1988rolePresident's partyReagan29.126.032.3801
    1988roleOther partyReagan10.88.912.9920
    1990partyDemocratsBush3.52.54.81,000
    1990partyRepublicansBush3.72.55.3710
    1990rolePresident's partyBush3.72.55.3710
    1990roleOther partyBush3.52.54.81,000
    1992partyDemocratsBush2.41.73.51,217
    1992partyRepublicansBush8.16.510.0918
    1992rolePresident's partyBush8.16.510.0918
    1992roleOther partyBush2.41.73.51,217
    1994partyDemocratsClinton37.233.641.0819
    1994partyRepublicansClinton33.229.637.0741
    1994rolePresident's partyClinton37.233.641.0819
    1994roleOther partyClinton33.229.637.0741
    1996partyDemocratsClinton48.644.952.3887
    1996partyRepublicansClinton26.222.630.2650
    1996rolePresident's partyClinton48.644.952.3887
    1996roleOther partyClinton26.222.630.2650
    1998partyDemocratsClinton53.749.557.8647
    1998partyRepublicansClinton38.433.843.3467
    1998rolePresident's partyClinton53.749.557.8647
    1998roleOther partyClinton38.433.843.3467
    2000partyDemocratsClinton49.645.953.3879
    2000partyRepublicansClinton26.322.830.1676
    2000rolePresident's partyClinton49.645.953.3879
    2000roleOther partyClinton26.322.830.1676
    2002partyDemocratsBush3.72.35.8703
    2002partyRepublicansBush6.74.89.4665
    2002rolePresident's partyBush6.74.89.4665
    2002roleOther partyBush3.72.35.8703
    2004partyDemocratsBush10.17.713.1585
    2004partyRepublicansBush42.637.947.4479
    2004rolePresident's partyBush42.637.947.4479
    2004roleOther partyBush10.17.713.1585
    2008partyDemocratsBush1.40.82.41,362
    2008partyRepublicansBush3.52.25.6651
    2008rolePresident's partyBush3.52.25.6651
    2008roleOther partyBush1.40.82.41,362
    2012partyDemocratsObama48.846.451.33,091
    2012partyRepublicansObama9.47.911.21,992
    2012rolePresident's partyObama48.846.451.33,091
    2012roleOther partyObama9.47.911.21,992
    2016partyDemocratsObama45.042.347.71,934
    2016partyRepublicansObama11.29.613.11,726
    2016rolePresident's partyObama45.042.347.71,934
    2016roleOther partyObama11.29.613.11,726
    2020partyDemocratsTrump5.24.36.33,829
    2020partyRepublicansTrump36.234.138.43,425
    2020rolePresident's partyTrump36.234.138.43,425
    2020roleOther partyTrump5.24.36.33,829
    2024partyDemocratsBiden36.533.939.32,546
    2024partyRepublicansBiden4.73.66.22,331
    2024rolePresident's partyBiden36.533.939.32,546
    2024roleOther partyBiden4.73.66.22,331

    Watch the two lines trade places at each change of shading. The Democratic line is the higher one while a Democrat holds the White House and the lower one otherwise, and the Republican line does the opposite, so the lines cross at every change of party. In 1980, 1990 and 1994 they run close together. Each point is one ANES survey, the bands are 95% intervals, and the shaded background marks the president's party. Values in Table 1.

    Note: The ANES ran no survey in 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018 or 2022, so each line joins survey years.Note: Interviews before 2012 were mainly face-to-face; web samples begin in 2012 (see the mode comparison later in the chapter).Source: American National Election Studies Cumulative Data File, 1980-2024; weighted (VCF0009z)

    How the three surveys ask the question

    The ANES asks whether, over the past year, the nation's economy has gotten better, stayed about the same or gotten worse. The CES asks the same question with five answers, and the chapter counts somewhat better and much better as better. Each ANES and CES survey interviews a new sample, and every estimate is weightedSurvey weightsNumbers that scale each respondent so the sample matches the population on known traits such as age, race, education and region. A weighted average counts a respondent with a large weight for more than one with a small weight. so that the sample matches the population on known traits. The series cover 42,86442,864 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents in the yearly premium cellsWeightsnone (count)PopulationANES respondents who identify with or lean toward a party and answered the itemPeriod1980 to 2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File ANES partisans from 1980 to 2024 and 568,229568,229 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents in the yearly premium cellsWeightsnone (count)PopulationCES respondents who identify with or lean toward a party and answered the itemPeriod2006 to 2024SourceCooperative Election Study CES partisans from 2006 to 2024. The weekly Nationscape survey, used for one figure below, ran from July 2019 to January 2021. Its party measure has no leaners, so its Democrats and Republicans are identifiers only. The measure is one survey question about the past year, a judgment rather than a measured condition, and the data hold no measure of what happened to unemployment, prices or income. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.

    Weekly answers swapped before the 2021 inauguration

    Annual surveys place each reversal within a year of a change of party but not within that year. Nationscape, interviewing every week, follows the months around one change of party and the spring of the pandemic before it. Figure 2 plots the share of each party saying better by interview week. In late February 2020, with a Republican president, 75%74.9% percent of partisans who said the economy got betterEstimandweighted share saying better in one weekly waveInterval95% CI 71.7% to 77.8%n1,967Weightsweight (Nationscape survey weight)PopulationRepublicans among Nationscape respondentsPeriod2020-02-17 to 2020-02-23SourceNationscape of Republican identifiers said the economy had gotten better. By mid-April the share was 22%22.0% percent of partisans who said the economy got betterEstimandweighted share saying better in one weekly waveInterval95% CI 19.2% to 25.1%n1,654Weightsweight (Nationscape survey weight)PopulationRepublicans among Nationscape respondentsPeriod2020-04-13 to 2020-04-19SourceNationscape, and the Democratic share had fallen as well. The pandemic was declared in March, and the survey cannot separate a change in conditions from a change in what partisans say. The change of president then shows up before the inauguration. From the last full week before the election to mid-January the Democratic share rose and the Republican share fell, and the two lines met before the new president took office. Several things changed between November and January, including the election result, and the survey cannot say which of them moved answers.

    Figure 2

    The Republican share saying better fell from 74.9% to 22.0% within two months in 2020, and the parties' lines met before the inauguration

    Share of Democratic and Republican identifiers saying the national economy got better over the past year, percent, by interview week; Nationscape, July 2019 to January 2021

    Said the economy got better (% of identifiers)

    Show data
    Data for The Republican share saying better fell from 74.9% to 22.0% within two months in 2020, and the parties' lines met before the inauguration
    Week startsWeek endsPartyShare saying better (%)Interval lowInterval highn
    2019-07-182019-07-21Democrats16.313.519.71,741
    2019-07-182019-07-21Republicans70.266.074.11,445
    2019-07-222019-07-28Democrats14.812.317.72,252
    2019-07-222019-07-28Republicans66.462.370.21,750
    2019-07-292019-08-04Democrats14.912.517.72,346
    2019-07-292019-08-04Republicans66.162.269.71,814
    2019-08-052019-08-11Democrats14.311.817.21,959
    2019-08-052019-08-11Republicans64.060.167.71,654
    2019-08-122019-08-18Democrats12.39.915.11,970
    2019-08-122019-08-18Republicans64.660.468.61,565
    2019-08-192019-08-25Democrats12.510.414.92,707
    2019-08-192019-08-25Republicans66.963.570.22,152
    2019-08-262019-09-01Democrats11.08.913.61,993
    2019-08-262019-09-01Republicans64.460.468.21,571
    2019-09-022019-09-08Democrats11.49.314.02,119
    2019-09-022019-09-08Republicans62.258.465.91,685
    2019-09-092019-09-15Democrats11.59.214.32,002
    2019-09-092019-09-15Republicans64.760.668.61,632
    2019-09-162019-09-22Democrats12.810.415.72,171
    2019-09-162019-09-22Republicans66.061.969.91,709
    2019-09-232019-09-29Democrats11.49.214.22,044
    2019-09-232019-09-29Republicans64.560.568.41,741
    2019-09-302019-10-06Democrats12.810.915.13,266
    2019-09-302019-10-06Republicans62.759.366.02,579
    2019-10-072019-10-13Democrats13.611.016.81,732
    2019-10-072019-10-13Republicans62.157.666.31,377
    2019-10-142019-10-20Democrats15.712.619.31,397
    2019-10-142019-10-20Republicans68.463.972.71,251
    2019-10-212019-10-27Democrats13.110.815.92,337
    2019-10-212019-10-27Republicans66.162.269.81,911
    2019-10-282019-11-03Democrats16.413.819.42,427
    2019-10-282019-11-03Republicans68.464.771.92,030
    2019-11-042019-11-10Democrats14.712.217.61,936
    2019-11-042019-11-10Republicans69.766.173.11,769
    2019-11-112019-11-17Democrats12.910.915.32,565
    2019-11-112019-11-17Republicans68.164.871.22,181
    2019-11-182019-11-24Democrats17.113.721.31,156
    2019-11-182019-11-24Republicans69.865.274.11,158
    2019-11-252019-12-01Democrats14.712.417.32,604
    2019-11-252019-12-01Republicans69.866.572.92,303
    2019-12-022019-12-08Democrats13.611.016.81,566
    2019-12-022019-12-08Republicans68.964.872.71,490
    2019-12-092019-12-15Democrats14.011.916.42,706
    2019-12-092019-12-15Republicans69.766.472.82,316
    2019-12-162019-12-22Democrats18.916.421.72,289
    2019-12-162019-12-22Republicans70.066.773.21,996
    2019-12-232019-12-29Democrats22.419.625.51,913
    2019-12-232019-12-29Republicans73.469.876.61,526
    2019-12-302020-01-05Democrats17.815.720.03,131
    2019-12-302020-01-05Republicans73.170.575.52,804
    2020-01-062020-01-12Democrats19.316.322.71,572
    2020-01-062020-01-12Republicans73.769.977.21,401
    2020-01-132020-01-19Democrats21.718.924.72,195
    2020-01-132020-01-19Republicans70.166.673.41,845
    2020-01-202020-01-26Democrats15.913.618.52,370
    2020-01-202020-01-26Republicans70.867.573.81,972
    2020-01-272020-02-02Democrats17.814.921.01,714
    2020-01-272020-02-02Republicans73.169.276.61,417
    2020-02-032020-02-09Democrats15.312.818.12,143
    2020-02-032020-02-09Republicans73.269.676.41,897
    2020-02-102020-02-16Democrats20.717.923.91,935
    2020-02-102020-02-16Republicans73.269.776.51,823
    2020-02-172020-02-23Democrats20.017.422.72,366
    2020-02-172020-02-23Republicans74.971.777.81,967
    2020-02-242020-03-01Democrats19.016.322.11,778
    2020-02-242020-03-01Republicans68.965.372.31,682
    2020-03-022020-03-08Democrats16.414.019.22,264
    2020-03-022020-03-08Republicans66.062.269.51,767
    2020-03-092020-03-15Democrats14.011.716.62,054
    2020-03-092020-03-15Republicans58.955.262.51,803
    2020-03-162020-03-22Democrats8.97.211.02,313
    2020-03-162020-03-22Republicans44.540.948.11,837
    2020-03-232020-03-29Democrats10.38.512.62,097
    2020-03-232020-03-29Republicans37.033.840.41,918
    2020-03-302020-04-05Democrats9.98.511.53,657
    2020-03-302020-04-05Republicans31.128.733.63,108
    2020-04-062020-04-12Democrats7.26.18.54,597
    2020-04-062020-04-12Republicans28.126.030.23,908
    2020-04-132020-04-19Democrats12.110.014.51,857
    2020-04-132020-04-19Republicans22.019.225.11,654
    2020-04-202020-04-26Democrats7.45.89.41,846
    2020-04-202020-04-26Republicans21.518.624.61,566
    2020-04-272020-05-03Democrats6.95.39.01,784
    2020-04-272020-05-03Republicans24.221.327.41,684
    2020-05-042020-05-10Democrats6.65.28.32,556
    2020-05-042020-05-10Republicans21.418.924.22,138
    2020-05-112020-05-17Democrats10.48.412.91,735
    2020-05-112020-05-17Republicans18.115.421.11,583
    2020-05-182020-05-24Democrats9.58.011.32,806
    2020-05-182020-05-24Republicans23.320.925.82,503
    2020-05-252020-05-31Democrats7.66.09.71,799
    2020-05-252020-05-31Republicans21.118.424.11,587
    2020-06-012020-06-07Democrats6.34.98.12,035
    2020-06-012020-06-07Republicans20.117.523.01,757
    2020-06-082020-06-14Democrats6.44.98.12,197
    2020-06-082020-06-14Republicans22.419.825.22,000
    2020-06-152020-06-21Democrats5.94.67.62,214
    2020-06-152020-06-21Republicans18.716.321.41,898
    2020-06-222020-06-28Democrats6.55.18.32,337
    2020-06-222020-06-28Republicans17.215.019.81,991
    2020-06-292020-07-05Democrats5.64.27.41,961
    2020-06-292020-07-05Republicans21.218.524.21,785
    2020-07-062020-07-12Democrats4.83.46.71,666
    2020-07-062020-07-12Republicans20.717.624.21,458
    2020-07-132020-07-19Democrats9.07.710.54,172
    2020-07-132020-07-19Republicans22.420.324.73,373
    2020-07-202020-07-26Democrats6.04.87.33,562
    2020-07-202020-07-26Republicans21.019.023.23,379
    2020-07-272020-08-02Democrats7.35.99.02,640
    2020-07-272020-08-02Republicans14.612.616.82,423
    2020-08-032020-08-09Democrats5.33.97.21,739
    2020-08-032020-08-09Republicans19.817.022.91,504
    2020-08-102020-08-16Democrats6.65.08.61,849
    2020-08-102020-08-16Republicans22.119.325.31,659
    2020-08-172020-08-23Democrats5.64.37.42,320
    2020-08-172020-08-23Republicans21.318.824.12,237
    2020-08-242020-08-30Democrats6.95.29.11,865
    2020-08-242020-08-30Republicans26.623.130.41,506
    2020-08-312020-09-06Democrats7.65.89.81,875
    2020-08-312020-09-06Republicans23.320.426.51,898
    2020-09-072020-09-13Democrats8.36.510.51,966
    2020-09-072020-09-13Republicans24.321.227.71,669
    2020-09-142020-09-20Democrats9.77.911.92,430
    2020-09-142020-09-20Republicans28.425.431.62,069
    2020-09-212020-09-27Democrats8.56.511.11,809
    2020-09-212020-09-27Republicans24.020.727.61,629
    2020-09-282020-10-04Democrats8.36.310.91,665
    2020-09-282020-10-04Republicans27.123.730.91,673
    2020-10-052020-10-11Democrats6.44.98.42,205
    2020-10-052020-10-11Republicans20.417.623.52,058
    2020-10-122020-10-18Democrats9.07.211.32,127
    2020-10-122020-10-18Republicans26.923.730.41,871
    2020-10-192020-10-25Democrats9.97.812.61,897
    2020-10-192020-10-25Republicans28.024.431.91,669
    2020-10-262020-11-01Democrats10.38.512.52,424
    2020-10-262020-11-01Republicans28.225.231.42,383
    2020-11-022020-11-08Democrats9.98.012.22,050
    2020-11-022020-11-08Republicans33.630.237.11,808
    2020-11-092020-11-15Democrats14.111.916.62,165
    2020-11-092020-11-15Republicans30.827.534.21,790
    2020-11-162020-11-22Democrats14.311.817.11,931
    2020-11-162020-11-22Republicans25.622.229.31,496
    2020-11-232020-11-29Democrats11.910.014.12,520
    2020-11-232020-11-29Republicans27.324.430.52,079
    2020-11-302020-12-06Democrats15.313.217.82,639
    2020-11-302020-12-06Republicans21.318.724.32,209
    2020-12-072020-12-13Democrats18.115.221.51,630
    2020-12-072020-12-13Republicans24.120.228.31,131
    2020-12-142020-12-20Democrats13.611.615.82,713
    2020-12-142020-12-20Republicans21.418.824.22,125
    2020-12-212020-12-27Democrats14.212.116.52,387
    2020-12-212020-12-27Republicans21.018.423.81,975
    2020-12-282020-12-30Democrats10.27.913.11,334
    2020-12-282020-12-30Republicans18.615.222.6924
    2021-01-122021-01-16Democrats18.215.221.71,647
    2021-01-122021-01-16Republicans18.615.222.51,222
    2021-01-212021-01-24Democrats18.315.721.21,788
    2021-01-212021-01-24Republicans13.811.316.71,404
    2021-01-252021-01-31Democrats23.620.327.21,358
    2021-01-252021-01-31Republicans13.310.616.51,155

    Follow the Republican line. It falls between late February and mid-April 2020, when the pandemic was declared. It falls again from the last full week before the election to mid-January 2021, where it meets the rising Democratic line just before the shading changes at the inauguration. The rules mark the start of 2020, the pandemic declaration and election day, and the bands are 95% intervals. The levels differ from the ANES and the CES, so the figure is read for its shape. Values in Table 7.

    Note: Party is the file's three-category party identification, so leaners are not counted with a party. Nationscape recruits online respondents who chose to take part, and the intervals treat it as a probability sample.Note: The levels differ from the other two surveys: in 2020 the Republican share saying better is 28.2% in the last full week before the election, against 36.2% in the ANES and 44.4% in the CES, so this figure is read for its shape.Note: The Republican share in the election week (33.6%) is above the share in the week before (28.2%), and its 95% interval overlaps the intervals of the weeks on either side.Note: No wave was fielded between the end of December 2020 and the middle of January 2021, and the line is not drawn across that gap.Source: Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape, July 2019 to January 2021; weighted (survey weight)

    The spring of 2020 shows a pattern the ANES record also shows in its low years. The premium shrinks when the president's own partisans stop saying better. In 66 ANES survey yearsEstimandcountWeightsnone (count)PopulationANES surveys with a premium below the cutoffPeriod1980 to 2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File ANES surveys (1980, 1990, 1992, 1994, 2002 and 2008) the premium is below 1010 percentage pointsEstimandconstantWeightsnone (constant)Populationcutoff that separates the low-premium surveysPeriod1980 to 2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points. In every one of them except 1994 no more than 8.1%8.1% percent of partisans who said the economy got betterEstimandlargest in-party share among those surveysWeightsweight (VCF0009z)Populationpartisans of the president's partyPeriodthe five low-premium surveys other than 1994SourceANES Cumulative Data File of the president's party said the economy got better. The premium cannot exceed the share of the president's party who say better, so a year in which even the president's partisans mostly say worse leaves little room for it. The parties still differed about the president in those years. In every ANES survey, including 1990 and 2008, the president's party was at least 34.934.9 percentage pointsEstimandsmallest yearly premium in approval of the president's jobWeightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationANES partisans who gave an approve or disapprove answerPeriod1980 to 2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points more likely than the other party to approve of the president's job.

    The premium is higher after 2012, on thin evidence

    In the six ANES surveys from 1980 to 1990 the premium averaged 14.814.8 percentage pointsEstimandmean of the yearly premiums, each survey counted once; the interval covers sampling error within each survey onlyInterval95% CI 13.3 to 16.2n9,644Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationANES respondents who identify with or lean toward a party and answered the itemPeriod1980 to 1990 (six surveys)SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, and in the four from 2012 to 2024 it averaged 34.034.0 percentage pointsEstimandmean of the yearly premiums, each survey counted once; the interval covers sampling error within each survey onlyInterval95% CI 32.5 to 35.4n20,874Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationANES respondents who identify with or lean toward a party and answered the itemPeriod2012 to 2024 (four surveys)SourceANES Cumulative Data File, a difference of 19.2 (95% CI 4.8 to 33.7)19.2 percentage pointsEstimanddifference between the two era means with each survey as one observation; Welch t interval on the yearly premiums (6 and 4 surveys)Interval95% CI 4.8 to 33.7Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationANES respondents who identify with or lean toward a party and answered the itemPeriod2012 to 2024 minus 1980 to 1990SourceANES Cumulative Data File points. The evidence for a rise is thin. It rests on those surveys alone, and the earlier average includes 1980 and 1990, when no more than 4.3%4.3% percent of partisans who said the economy got betterEstimandlargest of the four shares (both parties, both surveys)Weightsweight (VCF0009z)Populationpartisans of either partyPeriod1980 and 1990SourceANES Cumulative Data File of either party said the economy got better. Leaving those two surveys out, the later average is 12.2 (95% CI −4.3 to 28.8)12.2 percentage pointsEstimanddifference between the two era means with each survey as one observation; Welch t interval on the yearly premiums (4 and 4 surveys)Interval95% CI −4.3 to 28.8Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationANES respondents who identify with or lean toward a party and answered the itemPeriod2012 to 2024 minus 1982 to 1988SourceANES Cumulative Data File points higher than the average for 1982 to 1988, an interval that includes zero when each survey counts as one observation. Most of the difference between the averages comes from the president's party, whose share saying better averaged 26.0%26.0% percent of partisans who said the economy got betterEstimandmean of the yearly shares, each survey counted onceInterval95% CI 24.8% to 27.2%n9,644Weightsweight (VCF0009z)Populationpartisans of the president's partyPeriod1980 to 1990 (six surveys)SourceANES Cumulative Data File in the earlier surveys and 41.6%41.6% percent of partisans who said the economy got betterEstimandmean of the yearly shares, each survey counted onceInterval95% CI 40.4% to 42.9%n20,874Weightsweight (VCF0009z)Populationpartisans of the president's partyPeriod2012 to 2024 (four surveys)SourceANES Cumulative Data File in the later ones. The higher level from 2012 does not come from the web interviews the ANES added that year: face-to-face interviews alone give a premium above the 1980 to 1990 average in 2012, 2016 and 2024. The CES cannot say whether the premium rose, because its series starts in 2006.

    Figure 3

    The ANES premium averages higher from 2012 on, while the CES premium ranges from 1.3 to 63.1 points

    In-party premium, percentage points; partisans including leaners; ANES 1980 to 2024 and CES 2006 to 2024

    Show data
    Data for The ANES premium averages higher from 2012 on, while the CES premium ranges from 1.3 to 63.1 points
    Survey yearSurveyPresidentPremium (points)Interval lowInterval highn
    1980ANESCarter1.4−0.63.41,341
    1982ANESReagan16.211.820.51,193
    1984ANESReagan38.033.842.11,881
    1986ANESReagan14.610.518.61,798
    1988ANESReagan18.314.622.11,721
    1990ANESBush0.2−1.62.01,710
    1992ANESBush5.73.77.62,135
    1994ANESClinton4.0−1.29.31,560
    1996ANESClinton22.317.127.61,537
    1998ANESClinton15.38.921.61,114
    2000ANESClinton23.318.128.51,555
    2002ANESBush3.00.25.91,368
    2004ANESBush32.527.038.01,064
    2008ANESBush2.20.34.02,013
    2012ANESObama39.436.442.45,083
    2016ANESObama33.830.537.03,660
    2020ANESTrump31.028.733.37,254
    2024ANESBiden31.828.834.84,877
    2006CESBush63.162.164.031,314
    2007CESBush23.521.525.67,911
    2008CESBush1.30.91.628,482
    2009CESObama19.217.720.711,426
    2010CESObama30.129.131.247,347
    2011CESObama19.418.020.916,450
    2012CESObama50.649.551.745,431
    2013CESObama35.633.637.612,640
    2014CESObama40.939.842.143,938
    2015CESObama43.441.345.411,272
    2016CESObama43.642.744.650,685
    2017CESTrump48.346.250.413,851
    2018CESTrump60.159.061.147,590
    2019CESTrump22.920.924.914,444
    2020CESTrump38.737.739.748,334
    2021CESBiden37.936.439.319,809
    2022CESBiden20.820.021.748,285
    2023CESBiden33.431.934.919,158
    2024CESBiden47.546.448.749,862
    1980ANES averagen/a14.8n/an/a9,644
    1990ANES averagen/a14.8n/an/a9,644
    2001ANES averagen/an/an/an/an/a
    2012ANES averagen/a34.0n/an/a20,874
    2024ANES averagen/a34.0n/an/a20,874

    The ANES line sits higher from 2012 on than from 1980 to 1990, and the two dashed segments mark its averages for those periods. The grey CES line begins in 2006, runs above the ANES line in every year from 2012 on in which both surveys ask the item, and reaches its lowest point in 2008. Each point is one survey, the bands are 95% intervals, and the rule at zero marks no difference between the parties. Values in Table 3.

    Note: The ANES adds web interviews in 2012; the CES is an online panel throughout. Mode comparisons follow in the chapter.Note: The averages count each survey once and carry no band here: the interval of an average covers sampling error within each survey only, and the yearly premiums vary by more than that.Source: American National Election Studies Cumulative Data File, 1980-2024, and Cooperative Election Study cumulative common content, 2006-2024; weighted (VCF0009z for the ANES, year-specific weight for the CES)

    The gap follows the president's party

    The gap between Democrats and Republicans is signed by party and changes sign with the presidency, so the chapter follows the premium over time rather than the gap. The premium has an interval above zero in every CES survey and in every ANES survey except 1980, 1990 and 1994, whichever party holds the White House. Chapter 4.7, Sort dates by attitude dates when abortion, religion and racial resentment became partisan divides and finds no sort date for economic perceptions, whose gap follows the party of the president.

    The premium shows that partisans answer differently, not why. One reading is that partisans perceive different economies. Bartels found that Democrats and Republicans differ in their perceptions of events that have an objective answer [1]. A panel around the 2006 midterm election found that partisans' economic assessments moved apart after control of Congress changed [2]. A second reading is that partisans give congenial answers when asked. In two surveys with experiments, payments and appeals for accuracy reduced the partisan gap in reports of economic conditions [3]. Nothing in the ANES, CES or Nationscape items can separate these readings.

    What one survey question cannot tell you

    The surveys record what partisans say in one interview, so they cannot separate different information from a wish to praise one's own side. The question asks about the nation over one year, and the data hold no measure of what happened to unemployment, prices or income. The chapter therefore cannot say how much of any survey's premium reflects conditions. The comparison of 1980 to 1990 with 2012 to 2024 mixes party attachment with conditions and rests on six and four surveys, and the premium differs across surveys by more than sampling error. Party identification is measured in the same interview as the economic judgment. A respondent whose view of the economy shapes their party identification appears as a partisan with a matching view, and repeated cross-sections cannot tell the two apart.

    Go deeper

    • The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
    • Tables: every figure of the report as a table.
    • Issues: the explorer for this part.

    Data sources

    • ANES Cumulative Data FileCumulative Data File 1948-2024, surveys from 1980 to 2024: retrospective economy (VCF0870), approval of the president's job (VCF0450), party identification (VCF0301), president in officeYears: 1948-2024 (33 study years; even years only after 2004; no 2006, 2010 or 2014 study) · Weights: weight (VCF0009z); weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode comparison · License: Free download after accepting the ANES terms of use; cite the release.
    • Cooperative Election StudyCumulative common content 2006-2024: retrospective economy (economy_retro), 7-point party identificationYears: 2006-2024 (every year; self-reported turnout is available in the 10 even years) · Weights: weight (year-specific) · License: See the provider's terms of use.
    • NationscapeWeekly waves July 2019 to January 2021: retrospective economy (economy_better_scale), 3-category party identificationYears: 2019-07-18 to 2021-04-15 (85 weekly waves) · Weights: weight (survey weight) · License: Free after registration and acceptance of the Voter Study Group terms; also on Harvard Dataverse.

    All data sources

    References

    1. Bartels, Larry M. (2002). Beyond the Running Tally: Partisan Bias in Political Perceptions. Political Behavior 24(2): 117-150. doi:10.1023/A:1021226224601
    2. Gerber, Alan S.; Huber, Gregory A. (2010). Partisanship, Political Control, and Economic Assessments. American Journal of Political Science 54(1): 153-173. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00424.x
    3. Prior, Markus; Sood, Gaurav; Khanna, Kabir (2015). You Cannot Be Serious: The Impact of Accuracy Incentives on Partisan Bias in Reports of Economic Perceptions. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 10(4): 489-518. doi:10.1561/100.00014127

    How to cite

    @misc{singh2026perceptionsoftheeconomy,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Perceptions of the economy},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/perceptions-of-the-economy},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 30 September 2026.}
}