Chapter 6.4
Down the ballot
Among ANES voters who reported major-party votes for president and the House, 4.7% chose different parties in 2024, against 22.3% in 1992 and 29.5% in 1972.
In 1972, 30%29.5% percent of votersEstimandweighted share whose reported votes were for different parties, president and HouseInterval95% CI 27.1% to 32.0%n1,293Weightsweight_postelection (VCF9999) in 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2016, 2020 and 2024 and VCF0009z in the other studies including 2012; VCF0009z equals 1 for every respondent in 1952, 1956, 1964, 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984 and 1988, so those studies are unweightedPopulationrespondents who reported a major-party presidential vote and a major-party House votePeriod1972SourceANES Cumulative Data File of the voters in the American National Election Studies (ANES) who reported a major-party vote for president and for the House chose candidates of different parties. The usual split was a Republican for president and a Democrat for the House. In 2024 the share was 4.7%4.7% percent of votersEstimandweighted share whose reported votes were for different parties, president and HouseInterval95% CI 3.7% to 5.7%n3,515Weightsweight_postelection (VCF9999) in 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2016, 2020 and 2024 and VCF0009z in the other studies including 2012; VCF0009z equals 1 for every respondent in 1952, 1956, 1964, 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984 and 1988, so those studies are unweightedPopulationrespondents who reported a major-party presidential vote and a major-party House votePeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File, the lowest in any ANES presidential-election study since 1952. Both shares are voters' own reports of their two choices, counted among voters who cast a major-party vote in both races.
Fewer ticket splitters, and fewer divided counties
Ticket splitting is a vote for one party's candidate for one office and for another party's candidate for a second office on the same ballot. The ANES asks each respondent how they voted for president and for the House, so it measures splitting directly, by self-report, one voter at a time. County returns count each candidate's votes in a place and never match one voter's two choices. What they show is how often the party that won a county's presidential vote differed from the party that won its House vote, and this chapter calls such a county a divided county.The ANES also records a Senate vote where the respondent's state held a Senate race, and the county file holds Senate returns. The report carries both Senate series beside the House ones. Counted among counties in the contiguous states where every House race reaching into the county was contested, divided counties were 31.0%31.0% percent of countiesEstimandshare of counties whose presidential winner differs from the House winnern2,735Weightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties in the 48 contiguous states with a contested House race in every district partPeriod1992SourceCounty election returns of the total in 1992 and 2.8%2.8% percent of countiesEstimandshare of counties whose presidential winner differs from the House winnern2,695Weightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties in the 48 contiguous states with a contested House race in every district partPeriod2024SourceCounty election returns in 2024. Splitting can produce a divided county, but the two races also draw different numbers of voters, and splits in opposite directions cancel in a county total. The two measures are shares of different things, voters and counties, and neither can be derived from the other.
Figure 1 puts the two on one scale for the nine presidential elections from 1992 to 2024. Among ANES voters with a major-party vote in both races, the share who split was 22.3%22.3% percent of votersEstimandweighted share whose reported votes were for different parties, president and HouseInterval95% CI 19.9% to 24.8%n1,126Weightsweight_postelection (VCF9999) in 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2016, 2020 and 2024 and VCF0009z in the other studies including 2012; VCF0009z equals 1 for every respondent in 1952, 1956, 1964, 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984 and 1988, so those studies are unweightedPopulationrespondents who reported a major-party presidential vote and a major-party House votePeriod1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File in 1992. Both measures fell between 2008 and 2012, and both were lowest in 2024. They did not move together at every step. The voter rate rose in 2016, while the county share kept falling.
Figure 1
Between 1992 and 2024 the share of ANES voters who split their ticket fell by 17.7 points and the share of divided counties by 28.2 points
Share of ANES voters whose presidential and House votes were for different parties (95% intervals), and share of counties in contested House races with different presidential and House winners, 1992 to 2024
Show data
| Measure | Election | Share (%) | Respondents or counties |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters who split their ticket (ANES) | 1992 | 22.3 | 1,126 |
| Counties with different winners | 1992 | 31.0 | 2,735 |
| Voters who split their ticket (ANES) | 1996 | 17.7 | 926 |
| Counties with different winners | 1996 | 25.6 | 2,703 |
| Voters who split their ticket (ANES) | 2000 | 18.3 | 882 |
| Counties with different winners | 2000 | 27.0 | 2,555 |
| Voters who split their ticket (ANES) | 2004 | 16.8 | 701 |
| Counties with different winners | 2004 | 25.5 | 2,479 |
| Voters who split their ticket (ANES) | 2008 | 16.7 | 1,222 |
| Counties with different winners | 2008 | 26.6 | 2,661 |
| Voters who split their ticket (ANES) | 2012 | 9.8 | 3,501 |
| Counties with different winners | 2012 | 9.7 | 2,609 |
| Voters who split their ticket (ANES) | 2016 | 15.3 | 2,138 |
| Counties with different winners | 2016 | 7.7 | 2,427 |
| Voters who split their ticket (ANES) | 2020 | 11.4 | 5,167 |
| Counties with different winners | 2020 | 3.0 | 2,884 |
| Voters who split their ticket (ANES) | 2024 | 4.7 | 3,515 |
| Counties with different winners | 2024 | 2.8 | 2,695 |
Both lines fall between 2008 and 2012, the county line from 26.6%26.6% percent of countiesEstimandshare of counties whose presidential winner differs from the House winnern2,661Weightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties in the 48 contiguous states with a contested House race in every district partPeriod2008SourceCounty election returns to 9.7%9.7% percent of countiesEstimandshare of counties whose presidential winner differs from the House winnern2,609Weightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties in the 48 contiguous states with a contested House race in every district partPeriod2012SourceCounty election returns, and both end at their lowest point in 2024. The voter line rises in 2016 while the county line keeps falling. Each point on the voter line is the share of ANES voters who reported different parties for president and the House, with its 95% interval as a band. Each point on the county line is the share of counties in contested House races whose two winners differed, a full count with no interval. Values in Table 8.
Self-reports from the ANES, full counts from the counties
The voter series comes from 29,10329,103 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents with a post-election weight in the 19 studiesWeightsnone (count)Populationrespondents who reported a major-party presidential vote and a major-party House votePeriod1952-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File respondents in the ANES presidential-election studies from 1952 to 2024 who reported a major-party vote for president and for the House. Estimates use the survey weightsSurvey weightsNumbers that scale each respondent so the sample matches the population on known traits such as age, race, education and region. A weighted average counts a respondent with a large weight for more than one with a small weight., and the intervals treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample. The votes are self-reported after the election, and the file has no validated vote. The qualification that matters is the sample's lean. ANES voters in 2024 were 55.3% (95% CI 53.0% to 57.7%)55.3% percent of the two-party presidential voteEstimandweighted Democratic share of the major-party presidential voteInterval95% CI 53.0% to 57.7%n3,515Weightsweight_postelection (VCF9999)Populationrespondents who reported a major-party presidential vote and a major-party House votePeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File Democratic in the major-party presidential vote, against 49.2%49.2% percent of the two-party presidential voteEstimandcertified Democratic share of the Democratic and Republican presidential votesWeightsnone (full counts)Populationall states and the District of ColumbiaPeriod2024SourceState presidential returns in the certified national count. The county series is a full count of votes and carries no sampling interval. It covers the contiguous states in the nine presidential elections from 1992 to 2024. A county enters the comparison only when every House district that reaches into it held a contested two-party race, because a county that holds parts of several districts sums parts of several races. Keeping the counties in uncontested races changes the yearly share of divided counties by at most 2.12.1 percentage pointsEstimandlargest yearly difference in the share of divided counties between the main sample and all returns, HouseWeightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties with House returnsPeriod1992-2024SourceCounty election returns points (Table 4). The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.
The 2016 rise appears among web respondents
The ANES interviewed respondents mostly in person through 2008 and added a web sample alongside the in-person sample in 2012, 2016 and 2024. The two samples are separately recruited, so a difference between them can come from the interview modeSurvey modeHow respondents were interviewed: in person, by phone, on paper or online. Mode can change answers, so a change in mode can look like a change in opinion. or from the people who answered. In 2016 web respondents split more than in-person respondents by +7.2 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.9)+7.2 percentage pointsEstimandweb minus in-person difference in the weighted share who split, president and HouseInterval95% CI 3.4 to 10.9n2,138Weightsweight_ftf (VCF0009x) for in-person respondents and weight_web (VCF0009y) for web respondentsPopulationrespondents who reported a major-party presidential vote and a major-party House votePeriod2016SourceANES Cumulative Data File points for the House, and the rise from 2012 to 2016 is larger among web respondents. Among in-person respondents the change over those years was −0.9 (95% CI −4.8 to 3.1)−0.9 percentage pointsEstimanddifference in weighted shares who split, 2016 minus 2012 (separate samples)Interval95% CI −4.8 to 3.1n1,684Weightsweight_ftf (VCF0009x) for in-person respondents and weight_web (VCF0009y) for web respondentsPopulationrespondents who reported a major-party presidential vote and a major-party House votePeriod2012 to 2016, in-person respondents, president and HouseSourceANES Cumulative Data File points, an interval that includes zero and also a rise of several points, so the data do not confine the rise to the web sample. The fall from 2016 to 2024 appears in both modes. The 2020 study has no separate weights by mode, so the 2020 point and the fall from 2020 to 2024 are read from the all-interview series.
Divided counties were spread across regions in 1992
The county measure has a complication of its own, which is where the divided counties were. Figure 2 colors each county in the sample by its two winners, one election at a time. In 1992 the divided counties were scattered across the South, the Midwest and the West. The Census Bureau's South stood out in some later elections and not in others, in both directions. In 2004 its share of divided counties was higher than the share in the rest of the country, and in 2012 and 2016 it was lower. Counties with a Republican for president and a Democrat for the House outnumbered the reverse kind in every election except 1996 and 2020. Those are also the two studies in which the ANES intervals separate with the other kind of split larger. By 2024 nearly every county in the sample had the same winner for both offices.
Figure 2
Counties with different presidential and House winners were spread across regions in 1992, 32.5% of the South's counties and 29.9% of the other regions' counties
Counties by the party that won the presidential vote and the party that won the House vote, counties in contested House races, each presidential election from 1992 to 2024
Loading county values
Winners of the presidential and House vote
No data (3,143 counties)
Select a class to show only those places.
Hover or tap a county for its value, or search by name. Zoom with the buttons on the map, then drag to move it.
- Alaska draws as no data. Its election returns are reported by election district, and the district codes cannot be matched to boroughs and census areas.
In 1992 the blue and red counties, the divided ones, are spread across the South and outside it. That year 32.5%32.5% percent of countiesEstimandshare of counties that are divided, Southn1,207Weightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties in the 48 contiguous states with a contested House race in every district part, Census South regionPeriod1992SourceCounty election returns of the South's counties in the sample and 29.9%29.9% percent of countiesEstimandshare of counties that are divided, rest of the countryn1,528Weightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties in the 48 contiguous states with a contested House race in every district part, outside the Census South regionPeriod1992SourceCounty election returns of the other regions' counties were divided. Move the slider to 2024, when nearly every county in the sample is the neutral shade for the same winner in both races. Blue marks a county where a Democrat won the House vote and the Republican carried the presidential vote, red the reverse. Counties in uncontested races and counties left out by the sample rules draw as no data. Values in Table 5.
What the two measures mean, and what they do not
Both measures describe how often the presidential and House results part, one among voters and one among places, and neither says why they part less often than they did. The fall is also not a return to an earlier level. Figure 3 follows the ANES series back to 1952. The share who split was highest from 1972 to 1988, and the 2024 interval lies below the interval of every earlier study. In the counties, the House margins converged on the presidential margins over the same elections (Table 6). The gap that remains between a county's down-ballot result and its presidential result is mostly an amount that its neighbors in the same district or state share (Table 7). Chapter 6.1, Nationalization of the county vote measures how uniformly counties moved between presidential elections; this chapter compares two offices in the same election. Jacobson [1] reports that the electoral advantage of House incumbents fell together with a rise in party loyalty and straight-ticket voting, and Hopkins [2] documents the nationalization of American political behavior. Incumbency, candidate quality and redistricting are possible reasons for the fall in divided counties, and nothing here tests them. The county fall from 2008 to 2012 comes between two elections separated by the 2010 midterm and by redistricting after the 2010 census, and timing alone does not say which of these matters, if any.
Figure 3
Self-reported ticket splitting between president and House fell from 29.5% of voters in 1972 to 4.7% in 2024
Share of voters who reported different parties' candidates for president and for the House (or Senate), voters with a major-party vote in both races, ANES studies 1952 to 2024; 95% intervals
Show data
| Races | Interview mode | Study | Share who split (%) | Lower | Upper | Respondents |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| President and House | all | 1952 | 12.6 | 10.5 | 14.6 | 1,009 |
| President and House | all | 1956 | 15.6 | 13.5 | 17.6 | 1,151 |
| President and House | all | 1960 | 14.0 | 11.1 | 16.9 | 766 |
| President and House | all | 1964 | 15.1 | 12.8 | 17.4 | 947 |
| President and House | all | 1968 | 17.8 | 15.1 | 20.5 | 776 |
| President and House | all | 1972 | 29.5 | 27.1 | 32.0 | 1,293 |
| President and House | all | 1976 | 24.8 | 22.1 | 27.4 | 1,049 |
| President and House | all | 1980 | 27.7 | 24.5 | 30.9 | 762 |
| President and House | all | 1984 | 25.4 | 22.9 | 27.9 | 1,142 |
| President and House | all | 1988 | 25.3 | 22.7 | 28.0 | 1,030 |
| President and House | all | 1992 | 22.3 | 19.9 | 24.8 | 1,126 |
| President and House | all | 1996 | 17.7 | 14.9 | 20.4 | 926 |
| President and House | all | 2000 | 18.3 | 15.5 | 21.2 | 882 |
| President and House | all | 2004 | 16.8 | 13.8 | 19.8 | 701 |
| President and House | all | 2008 | 16.7 | 14.1 | 19.3 | 1,222 |
| President and House | all | 2012 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 11.1 | 3,501 |
| President and House | all | 2016 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 17.1 | 2,138 |
| President and House | all | 2020 | 11.4 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 5,167 |
| President and House | all | 2024 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 3,515 |
| President and House | ftf | 2008 | 16.8 | 14.2 | 19.4 | 1,222 |
| President and House | ftf | 2012 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 13.6 | 1,065 |
| President and House | ftf | 2016 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 13.1 | 619 |
| President and House | ftf | 2024 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 7.8 | 579 |
| President and House | web | 2012 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 2,436 |
| President and House | web | 2016 | 17.4 | 15.1 | 19.6 | 1,519 |
| President and House | web | 2024 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 1,227 |
| President and Senate | all | 1952 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 14.3 | 797 |
| President and Senate | all | 1956 | 16.1 | 13.6 | 18.5 | 878 |
| President and Senate | all | 1960 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 14.5 | 455 |
| President and Senate | all | 1964 | 17.2 | 14.5 | 19.8 | 787 |
| President and Senate | all | 1968 | 19.2 | 16.1 | 22.4 | 603 |
| President and Senate | all | 1972 | 28.5 | 25.3 | 31.7 | 765 |
| President and Senate | all | 1976 | 23.6 | 20.5 | 26.6 | 768 |
| President and Senate | all | 1980 | 23.7 | 20.2 | 27.3 | 539 |
| President and Senate | all | 1984 | 22.7 | 19.7 | 25.8 | 717 |
| President and Senate | all | 1988 | 23.3 | 20.4 | 26.2 | 819 |
| President and Senate | all | 1992 | 19.2 | 16.4 | 21.9 | 795 |
| President and Senate | all | 1996 | 14.7 | 11.4 | 18.0 | 548 |
| President and Senate | all | 2000 | 14.0 | 11.2 | 16.8 | 726 |
| President and Senate | all | 2004 | 14.5 | 11.2 | 17.9 | 508 |
| President and Senate | all | 2008 | 12.9 | 9.9 | 15.9 | 786 |
| President and Senate | all | 2012 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 2,814 |
| President and Senate | all | 2016 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 15.0 | 1,625 |
| President and Senate | all | 2020 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 2,879 |
| President and Senate | all | 2024 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 2,525 |
| President and Senate | ftf | 2008 | 12.8 | 9.9 | 15.8 | 786 |
| President and Senate | ftf | 2012 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 13.1 | 837 |
| President and Senate | ftf | 2016 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 13.9 | 447 |
| President and Senate | ftf | 2024 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 11.4 | 433 |
| President and Senate | web | 2012 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 13.3 | 1,977 |
| President and Senate | web | 2016 | 14.0 | 11.6 | 16.4 | 1,178 |
| President and Senate | web | 2024 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 8.3 | 923 |
The House line runs between 12.6%12.6% percent of votersEstimandlowest of the yearly shares who split, president and HouseWeightsnone (summary of the yearly estimates)Populationrespondents who reported a major-party presidential vote and a major-party House votePeriod1952-1968SourceANES Cumulative Data File and 17.8%17.8% percent of votersEstimandhighest of the yearly shares who split, president and HouseWeightsnone (summary of the yearly estimates)Populationrespondents who reported a major-party presidential vote and a major-party House votePeriod1952-1968SourceANES Cumulative Data File from 1952 to 1968, is highest from 1972 to 1988, and its 2024 interval lies below the interval of every earlier study. The dashed Senate line is close to it in level but not in every change. Each point is the weighted share of ANES voters with a major-party vote in both races who reported different parties, with its 95% interval as a band. The shaded column marks the studies that included web interviews. Values in Table 1.
What these data cannot tell you
County returns record winners in places, not the choices of voters. A county whose two winners agree can contain many voters who split in opposite directions, and a divided county can arise from close races and unequal turnout with few splitters, the ecological inferenceEcological inferenceDrawing a conclusion about individuals from data on groups or places, such as counties. A pattern across counties can differ from the pattern among the people who live in them. problem [3]. The ANES records a respondent's state and no county, so it cannot say which kinds of place have the most individual splitting. Its votes are self-reported, and a Democratic lean that differed between voters who split and voters who did not would change the rate of splitting; the chapter cannot say whether it does. The county file holds only president, House and Senate, so it says nothing about governors, state legislators or local offices, where Kuriwaki [4] finds more splitting than in Congress.
Go deeper
- The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
- Tables: every figure of the report as a table.
- Elections, 1976 to 2024: the explorer for this part.
Data sources
- ANES Cumulative Data FileCumulative Data File 1948-2024: president, House and Senate vote items (VCF0704, VCF0707, VCF0708), combined item VCF0709 for 1952 to 2020; post-election weight; mode weights for 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024Years: 1948-2024 (33 study years; even years only after 2004; no 2006, 2010 or 2014 study) · Weights: weight_postelection (VCF9999) where the file has it and VCF0009z elsewhere (VCF0009z equals 1 for every respondent in 1952, 1956, 1964, 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984 and 1988); weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode split · License: Free download after accepting the ANES terms of use; cite the release.
- County election returnsCounty returns for President, U.S. House and U.S. Senate, 1992-2024, 48 contiguous states (Heideman 2026, summary and candidate-level files)Years: President 1868-2024 (40 elections); House and Senate 1990-2024 · Weights: none (full counts); vote-weighted statistics weight each county by its presidential two-party votes · License: The Heideman file is CC BY 4.0 (doi:10.5281/zenodo.22976553), but the state records behind it keep their own terms, and the sites of Florida, Indiana, Colorado and Wisconsin restrict reuse.
- State presidential returnsState presidential returns, 2024, certified national Democratic share of the two-party vote (benchmark for the ANES 2024 sample)Years: 1976-2024 (13 elections) · Weights: none (full counts) · License: See the provider's terms of use.
References
- Jacobson, Gary C. (2015). It's Nothing Personal: The Decline of the Incumbency Advantage in US House Elections. The Journal of Politics 77(3): 861-873. doi:10.1086/681670
- Hopkins, Daniel J. (2018). The Increasingly United States: How and Why American Political Behavior Nationalized. University of Chicago Press. doi:10.7208/chicago/9780226530406.001.0001
- Robinson, W. S. (1950). Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals. American Sociological Review 15(3): 351-357. doi:10.2307/2087176
- Kuriwaki, Shiro (2026). Ticket Splitting in a Nationalized Era. The Journal of Politics 88(1): 47-62. doi:10.1086/734263
How to cite
@misc{singh2026downtheballot,
author = {Singh, Vishal},
title = {Down the ballot},
year = {2026},
url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/down-the-ballot},
note = {In The Public Mind. Published 3 October 2026.}
}