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    Chapter 4.3

    Guns

    In the General Social Survey the gap between Republican and Democratic identifiers in household gun ownership grew from 6.8 points in 1973 to 1980 to 27.7 points in 2016 to 2024 (24.7 in person), mostly as ownership fell among Democrats, and the gap in favoring a police permit grew from 4.1 to 29.4 points (23.4 in person and 34.5 on the web), mostly as support fell among Republicans.

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    NYU Stern
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    In the General Social Survey (GSS), 53.0%53.0% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 50.8% to 55.2%n3,622Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey of Republican identifiers and 25.3%25.3% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 23.7% to 26.9%n5,211Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey of Democratic identifiers lived in a household with a gun in 2016 to 2024, a gap of 27.7 (95% CI 24.9 to 30.4)27.7 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 24.9 to 30.4n8,833Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points, or 24.7 (95% CI 20.4 to 29.1)24.7 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 20.4 to 29.1n3,705Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home question interviewed in personPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled), in-person interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey points among respondents interviewed in person. Counting every respondent who refused the question as a nonowner or as an owner puts the gap between 25.125.1 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican minus Democratic gap in a gun in the home when every refusal is counted as a nonownerInterval95% CI 22.4 to 27.8n9,063Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who were asked the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey and 29.529.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican minus Democratic gap in a gun in the home when every refusal is counted as an ownerInterval95% CI 26.8 to 32.2n9,063Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who were asked the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points. In 1973 to 1980 the shares were 54.2%54.2% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 51.9% to 56.5%n2,220Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey and 47.3%47.3% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 45.6% to 49.1%n4,054Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey, a gap of 6.8 (95% CI 4.0 to 9.7)6.8 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 4.0 to 9.7n6,274Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points. Between the two periods the Democratic share fell by 22.0 (95% CI 19.7 to 24.4)22.0 percentage pointsEstimandfall in the weighted share, early period minus late period (two separate samples); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 19.7 to 24.4n9,265Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points, while the Republican share changed by −1.2 (95% CI −4.4 to 2.0)−1.2 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus early-period share (two separate samples); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI −4.4 to 2.0n5,842Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points, an interval that includes zero, and by −4.6 (95% CI −8.9 to −0.3)−4.6 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus early-period share (two separate samples); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI −8.9 to −0.3n3,748Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home question interviewed in personPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024, in-person interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey points among respondents interviewed in person. The GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun moved mostly on the Republican side: the Democratic share in favor rose by 7.8 (95% CI 5.9 to 9.8)7.8 percentage pointsEstimandrise in the weighted share, late period minus early period (two separate samples); the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 5.9 to 9.8n10,024Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points and the Republican share fell by 17.5 (95% CI 14.5 to 20.4)17.5 percentage pointsEstimandfall in the weighted share, early period minus late period (two separate samples); the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 14.5 to 20.4n6,418Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points, which took the gap from 4.1 (95% CI 1.8 to 6.5)4.1 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 1.8 to 6.5n7,473Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973 to 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey to 29.4 (95% CI 26.9 to 32.0)29.4 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 26.9 to 32.0n8,969Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points, 23.4 (95% CI 19.3 to 27.5)23.4 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 19.3 to 27.5n3,765Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit question interviewed in personPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled), in-person interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey in person and 34.5 (95% CI 30.9 to 38.1)34.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 30.9 to 38.1n4,247Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit question interviewed on the webPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled), web interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey on the web. The American National Election Studies (ANES), the Cooperative Election Study (CES) and Nationscape ask about other policies and show a party gap in the expected direction on every item they ask.

    Each question counts one answer: that a household has a gun, that the respondent owns one, or that the respondent favors a policy. A gap is the difference between the parties in the share giving that answer, in pointsPercentage pointThe unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused., written so that a positive gap means the party that favors that side is higher. For stricter rules the gap is the Democratic share minus the Republican share, and for owning a gun, easing concealed carry and prohibiting the publication of owners' names it is the Republican share minus the Democratic share. Party includes leanersPartisan leanerA respondent who first says they are independent but, when asked, says they lean toward one party. Most figures group leaners with the party they lean toward, and each chapter says which grouping it uses., independents are the respondents who lean toward neither party, and every interval is a 95% confidence intervalConfidence intervalA range around an estimate that would contain the true value in 95% of repeated samples if the sampling model held. The book reports 95% intervals unless it says otherwise.. In person means interviewed in person, which covers every GSS respondent before 2004. Each survey words its questions in its own way (Figure 1), so no line in this chapter joins two surveys.Shares use the survey weights and cover respondents who answered the item: 47,52147,521 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents with a yes or no answer to owngunWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS respondents who answered the gun in the home questionPeriod1973-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey in 3030 surveysEstimandcount of survey years with the itemWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS survey years that asked the gun in the home questionPeriod1973-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey GSS surveys for a gun in the home, 50,49850,498 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents with a favor or oppose answer to gunlawWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS respondents who answered the police permit questionPeriod1972-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey in 3232 surveysEstimandcount of survey years with the itemWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS survey years that asked the police permit questionPeriod1972-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey for the police permit, 22,80022,800 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents with a usable answer to VCF9238Weightsnone (count)PopulationANES respondents who answered the question on buying a gunPeriod2000-2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File in 66 studiesEstimandcount of study years with the itemWeightsnone (count)PopulationANES studies that asked the question on buying a gunPeriod2000-2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File ANES studies for the question on buying a gun, and 443,846443,846 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents with an answer to at least one of the five gun itemsWeightsnone (count)PopulationCES respondents who answered at least one gun itemPeriod2010-2021SourceCooperative Election Study CES and 476,723476,723 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents in the weeks through 28 December 2020 with an answer to at least one of the seven gun itemsWeightsnone (count)PopulationNationscape respondents who answered at least one gun itemPeriodJuly 2019 to December 2020SourceNationscape Nationscape respondents on at least one gun item. Intervals use the Kish effective sample sizeEffective sample sizeThe number of equally weighted respondents that would give the same precision as the weighted sample. It is smaller than the raw count when the weights vary a lot, and it sets how wide the confidence interval is. [1] and treat the weightedSurvey weightsNumbers that scale each respondent so the sample matches the population on known traits such as age, race, education and region. A weighted average counts a respondent with a large weight for more than one with a small weight. sample as if respondents had been drawn one by one. A design-based interval that uses the GSS strata and primary sampling units, which the survey records from 1975, is 6.8 (95% CI 3.9 to 9.8)6.8 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share, with a design-based interval (Taylor linearisation with the GSS strata and primary sampling units); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 3.9 to 9.8n6,274Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey for the 1973 to 1980 ownership gap and 27.7 (95% CI 25.0 to 30.3)27.7 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share, with a design-based interval (Taylor linearisation with the GSS strata and primary sampling units); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 25.0 to 30.3n8,833Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey for 2016 to 2024, against 6.8 (95% CI 4.0 to 9.7)6.8 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 4.0 to 9.7n6,274Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey and 27.7 (95% CI 24.9 to 30.4)27.7 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 24.9 to 30.4n8,833Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey here, so the simplification changes them little; the 1973 and 1974 respondents have no design variables. The CES and Nationscape are opt-in panels, so their intervals rest on a model and say nothing about who chose to join.

    Schuman and Presser asked why national surveys showed strong support for gun registration while legislatures did not enact it. They found that question wording matters and that opponents hold their views more strongly than supporters, and that neither fully explains the difference [2]. Joslyn and coauthors used the GSS from 1972 to 2012 and report that owning a firearm is associated with voting for Republican presidential candidates across the election cycles they examine [3]. The GSS measures ownership from one respondent's report about the home, and Smith, Laken and Son find that husbands report a gun in the home more often than wives [4]. This chapter describes how ownership and policy answers line up with party, a case of party sortingParty sortingThe alignment of party with other traits, such as ideology, religion, race and place, so that people who share a party also tend to share those traits. in which an answer that once cut across the parties comes to follow them, and it does not test either account. Chapter 4.1, The abortion sort and Chapter 4.2, Immigration follow two other issues in the same way.

    Figure 1

    Each survey words its gun questions differently and counts a different answer

    Question wording or file label, answers offered, years used, the answer counted and the direction of the gap, by survey and item

    SurveyItemQuestion wording or file labelAnswersYears usedAnswer countedGap
    GSSGun in the home (owngun)Do you happen to have in your home (if house: or garage) any guns or revolvers?Yes, no (refused is missing)1973, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1980, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987 to 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2024YesRepublican minus Democratic
    GSSGun owned by the respondent (rowngun)Do any of these guns personally belong to you? Asked of respondents who report a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owningYes, no (refused is missing)1980, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987 to 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2024YesRepublican minus Democratic
    GSSPolice permit (gunlaw)Would you favor or oppose a law which would require a person to obtain a police permit before he or she could buy a gun?Favor, oppose1972 to 1977, 1980, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987 to 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2024FavorDemocratic minus Republican
    ANES cumulative fileBuying a gun (VCF9238)Should the government make it more difficult or easier to buy a gun, or should the rules stay the same as they are now? (file label)More difficult, keep the rules about the same, make it easier2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020More difficultDemocratic minus Republican
    ANES 2024Buying a gun (V242325)Should federal government make it more difficult or easier to buy a gun (file label; the cumulative file lacks this item for 2024)More difficult, easier, keep these rules about the same2024More difficultDemocratic minus Republican
    ANES 2024Background checks (V242326)Favor or oppose background checks for gun purchases (file label)Favor, oppose, neither favor nor oppose2024FavorDemocratic minus Republican
    ANES 2024Assault-style rifles (V242329)Favor or oppose banning 'assault-style' rifles (file label)Favor, oppose, neither favor nor oppose2024FavorDemocratic minus Republican
    ANES 2024Guns in the household (V241583)How many guns in household (file label; asked before the election)A number of guns, 0 for none2024One or moreRepublican minus Democratic
    CESFirearm sale laws (guns_scale)In general, do you feel that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be made more strict, less strict, or kept as they are?More strict, less strict, kept as they are2010, 2012More strictDemocratic minus Republican
    CESBackground checks (guns_bgchecks)On the issue of gun regulation, are you for or against each of the following proposals? Background checks for all sales, including at gun shows and over the Internet (2016: support or oppose; 2019: the item alone; 2021: Require criminal background checks on all gun sales)For or support, against or oppose2013 to 2019, 2021SupportDemocratic minus Republican
    CESAssault rifles (guns_assaultban)Ban assault rifles (same stem as the background checks item)For or support, against or oppose2013 to 2021SupportDemocratic minus Republican
    CESConcealed carry (guns_permits)Make it easier for people to obtain concealed-carry permit (2014: concealed weapons permits)For or support, against or oppose2013 to 2021SupportRepublican minus Democratic
    CESOwners' names (guns_names)Prohibit state and local governments from publishing the names and addresses of all gun ownersFor or support, against or oppose2013 to 2017, 2020SupportRepublican minus Democratic
    NationscapeHousehold gun (gun_household)Respondent or household member owns a gun (file description)Yes, no77 weekly waves, Jul 2019 to Dec 2020YesRepublican minus Democratic
    NationscapeBackground checksRequire background checks for all gun purchases (file description)Agree, disagree, not sure77 weekly waves, Jul 2019 to Dec 2020AgreeDemocratic minus Republican
    NationscapeRegistryCreate a public government registry of gun ownership (file description)Agree, disagree, not sure77 weekly waves, Jul 2019 to Dec 2020AgreeDemocratic minus Republican
    NationscapeAssault riflesBan assault rifles (file description)Agree, disagree, not sure77 weekly waves, Jul 2019 to Dec 2020AgreeDemocratic minus Republican
    NationscapeMagazinesLimit gun magazines to 10 bullets (file description)Agree, disagree, not sure77 weekly waves, Jul 2019 to Dec 2020AgreeDemocratic minus Republican
    NationscapeBan all gunsBan all guns (file description)Agree, disagree, not sure77 weekly waves, Jul 2019 to Dec 2020AgreeDemocratic minus Republican
    NationscapeControl over rightsIt is more important for government to control who owns guns than to protect the right to own guns (file description)Four answers from strongly agree to strongly disagree65 weekly waves, Sep 2019 to Dec 2020Agree or agree stronglyDemocratic minus Republican
    Show data
    Data for Each survey words its gun questions differently and counts a different answer
    answerscountedgapitemsurveywordingyears
    Yes, no (refused is missing)YesRepublican minus DemocraticGun in the home (owngun)GSSDo you happen to have in your home (if house: or garage) any guns or revolvers?1973, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1980, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987 to 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2024
    Yes, no (refused is missing)YesRepublican minus DemocraticGun owned by the respondent (rowngun)GSSDo any of these guns personally belong to you? Asked of respondents who report a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owning1980, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987 to 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2024
    Favor, opposeFavorDemocratic minus RepublicanPolice permit (gunlaw)GSSWould you favor or oppose a law which would require a person to obtain a police permit before he or she could buy a gun?1972 to 1977, 1980, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987 to 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2024
    More difficult, keep the rules about the same, make it easierMore difficultDemocratic minus RepublicanBuying a gun (VCF9238)ANES cumulative fileShould the government make it more difficult or easier to buy a gun, or should the rules stay the same as they are now? (file label)2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020
    More difficult, easier, keep these rules about the sameMore difficultDemocratic minus RepublicanBuying a gun (V242325)ANES 2024Should federal government make it more difficult or easier to buy a gun (file label; the cumulative file lacks this item for 2024)2024
    Favor, oppose, neither favor nor opposeFavorDemocratic minus RepublicanBackground checks (V242326)ANES 2024Favor or oppose background checks for gun purchases (file label)2024
    Favor, oppose, neither favor nor opposeFavorDemocratic minus RepublicanAssault-style rifles (V242329)ANES 2024Favor or oppose banning 'assault-style' rifles (file label)2024
    A number of guns, 0 for noneOne or moreRepublican minus DemocraticGuns in the household (V241583)ANES 2024How many guns in household (file label; asked before the election)2024
    More strict, less strict, kept as they areMore strictDemocratic minus RepublicanFirearm sale laws (guns_scale)CESIn general, do you feel that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be made more strict, less strict, or kept as they are?2010, 2012
    For or support, against or opposeSupportDemocratic minus RepublicanBackground checks (guns_bgchecks)CESOn the issue of gun regulation, are you for or against each of the following proposals? Background checks for all sales, including at gun shows and over the Internet (2016: support or oppose; 2019: the item alone; 2021: Require criminal background checks on all gun sales)2013 to 2019, 2021
    For or support, against or opposeSupportDemocratic minus RepublicanAssault rifles (guns_assaultban)CESBan assault rifles (same stem as the background checks item)2013 to 2021
    For or support, against or opposeSupportRepublican minus DemocraticConcealed carry (guns_permits)CESMake it easier for people to obtain concealed-carry permit (2014: concealed weapons permits)2013 to 2021
    For or support, against or opposeSupportRepublican minus DemocraticOwners' names (guns_names)CESProhibit state and local governments from publishing the names and addresses of all gun owners2013 to 2017, 2020
    Yes, noYesRepublican minus DemocraticHousehold gun (gun_household)NationscapeRespondent or household member owns a gun (file description)77 weekly waves, Jul 2019 to Dec 2020
    Agree, disagree, not sureAgreeDemocratic minus RepublicanBackground checksNationscapeRequire background checks for all gun purchases (file description)77 weekly waves, Jul 2019 to Dec 2020
    Agree, disagree, not sureAgreeDemocratic minus RepublicanRegistryNationscapeCreate a public government registry of gun ownership (file description)77 weekly waves, Jul 2019 to Dec 2020
    Agree, disagree, not sureAgreeDemocratic minus RepublicanAssault riflesNationscapeBan assault rifles (file description)77 weekly waves, Jul 2019 to Dec 2020
    Agree, disagree, not sureAgreeDemocratic minus RepublicanMagazinesNationscapeLimit gun magazines to 10 bullets (file description)77 weekly waves, Jul 2019 to Dec 2020
    Agree, disagree, not sureAgreeDemocratic minus RepublicanBan all gunsNationscapeBan all guns (file description)77 weekly waves, Jul 2019 to Dec 2020
    Four answers from strongly agree to strongly disagreeAgree or agree stronglyDemocratic minus RepublicanControl over rightsNationscapeIt is more important for government to control who owns guns than to protect the right to own guns (file description)65 weekly waves, Sep 2019 to Dec 2020
    The surveys differ in whether an item asks about a gun in the home, a gun the respondent owns or a policy, in the stem that introduces a policy and in the middle answers they offer, so levels are not comparable across surveys. Each row gives the wording as the survey or its documentation words it; where only the file label is available the row says so.Note: A gap is written so that it is positive when the party that favors that side is higher: Democratic minus Republican for the gun control answers and Republican minus Democratic for owning a gun, easing concealed carry and prohibiting publication of owners' names.Note: CES wording is quoted from the guide to the Cumulative CES Policy Preferences file; the file's own item labels are shorter. ANES and Nationscape rows give the file label or description because the full question text was not checked. The cumulative-file label for the buying-a-gun item says the government and the 2024 label says the federal government; the chapter does not claim the questions differ, and the answers are the same three in a different code order.Note: The CES gun items are for or against each proposal in a list, so a middle answer is not offered; the ANES 2024 background check and assault rifle items offer neither favor nor oppose, which counts as not favoring.Source: General Social Survey, ANES Cumulative Data File and 2024 Time Series, CES cumulative policy preferences guide and Nationscape codebook; question wording only, no weights apply

    Household ownership fell among Democrats and independents and changed less among Republicans

    Figure 2 plots the share with a gun in the home in each GSS survey year. Pooled over 1973 to 1980 the Democratic share was 47.3%47.3% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 45.6% to 49.1%n4,054Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey and the independent share 48.5%48.5% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 44.8% to 52.2%n937Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationindependents who lean toward neither party who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey. Pooled over 2016 to 2024 they were 25.3%25.3% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 23.7% to 26.9%n5,211Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey and 27.4%27.4% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 25.0% to 29.8%n2,435Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationindependents who lean toward neither party who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey, falls of 22.0 (95% CI 19.7 to 24.4)22.0 percentage pointsEstimandfall in the weighted share, early period minus late period (two separate samples); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 19.7 to 24.4n9,265Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey and 21.1 (95% CI 16.7 to 25.5)21.1 percentage pointsEstimandfall in the weighted share, early period minus late period (two separate samples); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 16.7 to 25.5n3,372Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationindependents who lean toward neither party who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points. The Republican share was 54.2%54.2% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 51.9% to 56.5%n2,220Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey and then 53.0%53.0% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 50.8% to 55.2%n3,622Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey, and its change has an interval that includes zero and excludes a fall as large as either of the other two. The gap between Republicans and Democrats therefore grew by 20.8 (95% CI 16.8 to 24.8)20.8 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period gap minus early-period gap, Republican minus Democratic share (two separate samples); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 16.8 to 24.8n15,107Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points as Democrats and independents fell and Republicans changed less.

    Figure 2

    Household gun ownership fell among Democrats and independents and changed less among Republicans

    Share of respondents with a gun in the home, by party identification; leaners are in the parties and independents lean toward neither; General Social Survey, 1973 to 2024; 95% intervals

    Show data
    Data for Household gun ownership fell among Democrats and independents and changed less among Republicans
    MeasureGroupYearShare (%)LowerUpperRespondents
    Household has a gunDemocrats197343.840.047.5797
    Household has a gunDemocrats197444.040.347.8817
    Household has a gunDemocrats197647.844.051.6823
    Household has a gunDemocrats197751.848.055.5868
    Household has a gunDemocrats198049.144.753.5749
    Household has a gunDemocrats198248.244.252.11,098
    Household has a gunDemocrats198442.137.746.5748
    Household has a gunDemocrats198545.941.450.5747
    Household has a gunDemocrats198744.040.247.91,020
    Household has a gunDemocrats198839.034.143.9481
    Household has a gunDemocrats198942.437.447.5478
    Household has a gunDemocrats199040.334.845.9385
    Household has a gunDemocrats199143.638.249.0425
    Household has a gunDemocrats199341.036.245.9503
    Household has a gunDemocrats199439.135.642.7937
    Household has a gunDemocrats199639.235.642.9874
    Household has a gunDemocrats199832.128.635.7879
    Household has a gunDemocrats200029.125.532.7819
    Household has a gunDemocrats200232.327.037.7408
    Household has a gunDemocrats200430.325.035.6394
    Household has a gunDemocrats200629.025.232.8845
    Household has a gunDemocrats200827.723.431.9634
    Household has a gunDemocrats201021.317.125.5571
    Household has a gunDemocrats201225.921.630.2597
    Household has a gunDemocrats201425.521.829.1781
    Household has a gunDemocrats201622.018.525.4894
    Household has a gunDemocrats201823.819.827.8705
    Household has a gunDemocrats202125.422.927.91,819
    Household has a gunDemocrats202227.723.432.1963
    Household has a gunDemocrats202427.423.031.7830
    Household has a gunIndependents197356.547.365.7138
    Household has a gunIndependents197447.438.356.5144
    Household has a gunIndependents197646.139.053.3235
    Household has a gunIndependents197748.940.757.1174
    Household has a gunIndependents198046.638.754.5246
    Household has a gunIndependents198249.741.557.9219
    Household has a gunIndependents198437.228.645.7160
    Household has a gunIndependents198742.534.350.6197
    Household has a gunIndependents198944.935.354.5124
    Household has a gunIndependents199437.830.944.7246
    Household has a gunIndependents199640.934.747.0305
    Household has a gunIndependents199830.124.336.0311
    Household has a gunIndependents200028.423.233.7361
    Household has a gunIndependents200228.820.537.2166
    Household has a gunIndependents200431.923.240.6145
    Household has a gunIndependents200629.223.934.5413
    Household has a gunIndependents200827.620.734.5221
    Household has a gunIndependents201031.724.139.3225
    Household has a gunIndependents201226.719.733.6252
    Household has a gunIndependents201422.917.528.3316
    Household has a gunIndependents201631.825.238.4304
    Household has a gunIndependents201831.324.238.5267
    Household has a gunIndependents202125.421.629.1785
    Household has a gunIndependents202223.517.729.3535
    Household has a gunIndependents202429.924.435.4544
    Household has a gunRepublicans197354.749.959.6473
    Household has a gunRepublicans197452.347.157.4428
    Household has a gunRepublicans197654.048.759.3410
    Household has a gunRepublicans197755.650.660.6461
    Household has a gunRepublicans198054.148.559.6448
    Household has a gunRepublicans198253.548.059.0495
    Household has a gunRepublicans198455.349.960.8522
    Household has a gunRepublicans198547.442.552.3607
    Household has a gunRepublicans198751.746.956.5563
    Household has a gunRepublicans198851.245.556.9358
    Household has a gunRepublicans198952.547.257.9417
    Household has a gunRepublicans199049.343.854.8409
    Household has a gunRepublicans199145.840.551.0416
    Household has a gunRepublicans199352.547.058.0418
    Household has a gunRepublicans199451.547.555.6733
    Household has a gunRepublicans199649.645.653.7703
    Household has a gunRepublicans199846.542.150.8630
    Household has a gunRepublicans200047.142.851.5609
    Household has a gunRepublicans200247.641.253.9319
    Household has a gunRepublicans200445.038.951.1326
    Household has a gunRepublicans200644.039.548.5666
    Household has a gunRepublicans200850.445.055.9441
    Household has a gunRepublicans201048.842.754.8398
    Household has a gunRepublicans201253.647.259.9385
    Household has a gunRepublicans201452.147.157.1502
    Household has a gunRepublicans201645.840.950.7576
    Household has a gunRepublicans201852.146.457.8490
    Household has a gunRepublicans202154.651.258.11,177
    Household has a gunRepublicans202251.745.358.1667
    Household has a gunRepublicans202458.153.163.1712
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats197343.840.047.5797
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats197444.040.347.8817
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats197647.844.051.6823
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats197751.848.055.5868
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats198049.144.753.5749
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats198248.244.252.11,098
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats198442.137.746.5748
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats198545.941.450.5747
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats198744.040.247.91,020
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats198839.034.143.9481
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats198942.437.447.5478
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats199040.334.845.9385
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats199143.638.249.0425
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats199341.036.245.9503
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats199439.135.642.7937
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats199639.235.642.9874
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats199832.128.635.7879
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats200029.125.532.7819
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats200232.327.037.7408
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats200428.822.734.9297
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats200629.225.433.0793
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats200829.224.533.8556
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats201021.316.925.8511
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats201225.721.030.3522
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats201425.821.929.8678
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats201622.418.826.0828
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats201824.720.429.0633
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats202228.822.435.3432
    Household has a gun (in person)Democrats202425.418.332.5284
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents197356.547.365.7138
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents197447.438.356.5144
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents197646.139.053.3235
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents197748.940.757.1174
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents198046.638.754.5246
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents198249.741.557.9219
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents198437.228.645.7160
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents198742.534.350.6197
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents198944.935.354.5124
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents199437.830.944.7246
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents199640.934.747.0305
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents199830.124.336.0311
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents200028.423.233.7361
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents200228.820.537.2166
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents200627.922.433.3389
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents200827.319.934.7190
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents201031.823.739.9203
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents201226.719.234.2221
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents201422.917.028.8264
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents201631.324.538.1290
    Household has a gun (in person)Independents201830.923.138.7229
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans197354.749.959.6473
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans197452.347.157.4428
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans197654.048.759.3410
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans197755.650.660.6461
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans198054.148.559.6448
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans198253.548.059.0495
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans198455.349.960.8522
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans198547.442.552.3607
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans198751.746.956.5563
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans198851.245.556.9358
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans198952.547.257.9417
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans199049.343.854.8409
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans199145.840.551.0416
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans199352.547.058.0418
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans199451.547.555.6733
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans199649.645.653.7703
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans199846.542.150.8630
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans200047.142.851.5609
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans200247.641.253.9319
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans200442.435.749.1261
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans200643.338.847.9623
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans200850.344.656.0393
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans201048.442.154.7358
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans201255.448.762.0321
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans201450.845.556.1441
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans201646.341.251.4536
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans201852.046.057.9441
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans202250.440.860.0307
    Household has a gun (in person)Republicans202451.242.260.3244
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats198029.625.633.7733
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats198228.825.232.41,077
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats198423.920.127.8747
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats198528.924.833.1746
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats198726.823.330.21,013
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats198825.220.829.5479
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats198925.120.729.6477
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats199025.420.530.3385
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats199130.125.135.1423
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats199328.323.932.8503
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats199425.322.228.5937
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats199624.120.927.4870
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats199819.616.622.5878
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats200018.315.321.4819
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats200223.418.628.3408
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats200420.615.925.3393
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats200619.015.722.2845
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats200818.414.722.1634
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats201014.310.717.9571
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats201216.913.220.6596
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats201415.812.818.9780
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats201613.911.116.8894
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats201814.611.318.0705
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats202116.714.618.91,818
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats202217.013.420.7963
    Respondent owns a gunDemocrats202415.411.919.0829
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents198026.919.834.0240
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents198232.825.040.6214
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents198423.115.630.5160
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents198728.020.635.5195
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents198926.417.834.9123
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents199426.920.633.2246
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents199625.319.930.8304
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents199819.214.224.2310
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents200019.114.623.7361
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents200217.410.424.3166
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents200422.915.030.7144
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents200616.712.421.1413
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents200818.012.124.0221
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents201019.012.625.4225
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents201215.69.921.3252
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents201416.511.821.3316
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents201616.911.522.2302
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents201820.314.026.5266
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents202119.015.722.4785
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents202214.89.919.6535
    Respondent owns a gunIndependents202422.117.127.1544
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans198031.526.236.7437
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans198233.928.639.2481
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans198428.323.433.2521
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans198529.625.134.1605
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans198730.926.435.4559
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans198829.123.934.3357
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans198930.225.335.2414
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans199031.726.636.8407
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans199130.025.134.9414
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans199334.028.839.2417
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans199432.328.536.1731
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans199632.528.736.2702
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans199830.826.734.8627
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans200031.927.836.0608
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans200237.531.443.7319
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans200430.524.836.1326
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans200628.824.732.9665
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans200833.628.538.8441
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans201032.126.537.8397
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans201236.630.442.8384
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans201438.833.943.7501
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans201632.728.137.3575
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans201834.829.340.3490
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans202141.838.445.21,172
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans202240.734.447.0663
    Respondent owns a gunRepublicans202438.733.843.7710
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats198029.625.633.7733
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats198228.825.232.41,077
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats198423.920.127.8747
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats198528.924.833.1746
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats198726.823.330.21,013
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats198825.220.829.5479
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats198925.120.729.6477
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats199025.420.530.3385
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats199130.125.135.1423
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats199328.323.932.8503
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats199425.322.228.5937
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats199624.120.927.4870
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats199819.616.622.5878
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats200018.315.321.4819
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats200223.418.628.3408
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats200420.314.925.7296
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats200619.416.022.7793
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats200819.615.623.7556
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats201015.011.118.9511
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats201216.412.420.3521
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats201415.812.519.1677
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats201614.111.117.1828
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats201815.411.819.0633
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats202216.711.422.0432
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Democrats202414.99.120.8284
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Independents198026.919.834.0240
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Independents198232.825.040.6214
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Independents198423.115.630.5160
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Independents198728.020.635.5195
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Independents198926.417.834.9123
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Independents199426.920.633.2246
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Independents199625.319.930.8304
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Independents199819.214.224.2310
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Independents200019.114.623.7361
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Independents200217.410.424.3166
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Independents200616.512.021.0389
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Independents200817.511.223.8190
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Independents201019.012.225.9203
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Independents201216.410.222.6221
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Independents201415.910.721.0264
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Independents201616.010.621.4288
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Independents201820.713.927.6228
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans198031.526.236.7437
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans198233.928.639.2481
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans198428.323.433.2521
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans198529.625.134.1605
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans198730.926.435.4559
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans198829.123.934.3357
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans198930.225.335.2414
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans199031.726.636.8407
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans199130.025.134.9414
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans199334.028.839.2417
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans199432.328.536.1731
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans199632.528.736.2702
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans199830.826.734.8627
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans200031.927.836.0608
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans200237.531.443.7319
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans200427.921.834.0261
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans200628.023.932.1622
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans200832.026.637.3393
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans201032.026.137.9357
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans201238.832.345.3321
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans201438.333.243.5440
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans201633.128.337.9535
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans201834.428.740.1441
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans202238.328.947.6306
    Respondent owns a gun (in person)Republicans202434.425.943.0244
    The Democratic and independent lines fall from the 1970s to the 2010s. The Republican line is lower in the 1998 to 2006 surveys than in the 1970s and is back near its 1970s level in the pooled 2016 to 2024 surveys, so the gap between Republicans and Democrats grows from 6.8 points in 1973 to 1980 to 27.7 points in 2016 to 2024, between 25.1 and 29.5 points when every refusal is counted as a nonowner or as an owner. Each line joins survey years, bands on the party lines are 95% confidence intervals, and the shaded band marks the GSS move from in-person to web interviews. The other views show in-person respondents and personal ownership, asked from 1980.Note: Household ownership is the answer of one respondent about the home, asked from 1973. Personal ownership is a follow-up to respondents who report a gun in the home, asked from 1980; respondents with no gun in the home count as not owning.Note: In-person views keep respondents interviewed in person and every survey before 2004, which was in person by design; the 2021 survey has no in-person respondents, so those lines break. A line also breaks where fewer than 150 respondents in a party were interviewed in person.Note: Refused answers are left out of every view. Republican respondents refused the household question more often than Democrats in 2016 to 2024, and the text bounds the effect. An independent cell is drawn only where it has at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100.Note: GSS interviews were mostly in person through 2018, mostly on the web in 2021, and in both modes in 2022 and 2024.Source: General Social Survey, 1972-2024; weighted (weight_use)

    The pooled Republican comparison hides a dip and depends on how the data are cut. The Republican share was between 44.0%44.0% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandlowest of the five yearly weighted Republican shares in the GSS surveys of 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2006; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesWeightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1998 to 2006SourceGeneral Social Survey and 47.6%47.6% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandhighest of the five yearly weighted Republican shares in the GSS surveys of 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2006; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesWeightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1998 to 2006SourceGeneral Social Survey in the surveys of 1998 to 2006, and pooled over them it was 45.9%45.9% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 43.7% to 48.1%n2,550Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1998 to 2006 (GSS surveys pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey, a change of −8.2 (95% CI −11.4 to −5.1)−8.2 percentage pointsEstimandshare pooled over the surveys of 1998 to 2006 minus the 1973 to 1980 share (two separate samples); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI −11.4 to −5.1n4,770Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 1998 to 2006SourceGeneral Social Survey points from 1973 to 1980. It was back near its early level from 2008 on. Among respondents interviewed in person in 2016 to 2024 the Republican change is −4.6 (95% CI −8.9 to −0.3)−4.6 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus early-period share (two separate samples); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI −8.9 to −0.3n3,748Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home question interviewed in personPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024, in-person interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey points and the gap is 24.7 (95% CI 20.4 to 29.1)24.7 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 20.4 to 29.1n3,705Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home question interviewed in personPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled), in-person interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey points, and among those interviewed on the web the change is +1.6 (95% CI −2.2 to 5.5)+1.6 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus early-period share (two separate samples); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI −2.2 to 5.5n3,911Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home question interviewed on the webPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024, web interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey points and the gap 29.6 (95% CI 25.7 to 33.4)29.6 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 25.7 to 33.4n4,183Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home question interviewed on the webPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled), web interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey points, a web minus in-person difference in the gap of 4.8 (95% CI −1.0 to 10.7)4.8 percentage pointsEstimandgap among respondents interviewed on the web minus the gap among respondents interviewed in person (two separate groups, different survey years); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI −1.0 to 10.7n7,888Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points that includes zero. Counting every refusal as a nonowner gives a Republican change of −3.7 (95% CI −6.9 to −0.6)−3.7 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus early-period share (two separate samples) when every refusal is counted as a nonownerInterval95% CI −6.9 to −0.6n6,039Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who were asked the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points, and counting every refusal as an owner gives +1.1 (95% CI −2.1 to 4.2)+1.1 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus early-period share (two separate samples) when every refusal is counted as an ownerInterval95% CI −2.1 to 4.2n6,039Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who were asked the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey. The cuts disagree on whether the Republican change differs from zero, and all of them put it far below the Democratic fall.

    The Democratic fall came in steps. The share was 39.2%39.2% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 35.6% to 42.9%n874Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1996SourceGeneral Social Survey in 1996 and 29.1%29.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 25.5% to 32.7%n819Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2000SourceGeneral Social Survey in 2000, a fall of 10.1 (95% CI 5.0 to 15.2)10.1 percentage pointsEstimandfall in the weighted Democratic share, 1996 minus 2000 (two separate samples); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 5.0 to 15.2n1,693Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1996 to 2000SourceGeneral Social Survey points, and it was 21.3%21.3% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 17.1% to 25.5%n571Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2010SourceGeneral Social Survey in 2010. From 22.0%22.0% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 18.5% to 25.4%n894Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016SourceGeneral Social Survey in 2016 to 27.4%27.4% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 23.0% to 31.7%n830Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2024SourceGeneral Social Survey in 2024 it changed by +5.4 (95% CI −0.2 to 10.9)+5.4 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted Democratic share, 2024 minus 2016 (two separate samples); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI −0.2 to 10.9n1,724Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points, an interval that includes zero. Chapter 1.3, Sort dates by attitude dates a party gap by the survey year in which it passes 0.250.25 standard deviations of the answerEstimandthreshold of the sort-date rule of the chapter Sort dates by attitudeWeightsnone (count)Populationthe party gap on an attitudePeriodall survey yearsSourceGeneral Social Survey standard deviationsStandard deviationA measure of how far values typically fall from their average. A larger standard deviation means the values are more spread out. (SD) of the answers and stays above that mark. Applied to a gun in the home, the point estimate passes the mark in 19981998 yearEstimandfirst survey year in which the point estimate of the Republican minus Democratic gap in the within-year z-score of a gun in the home (owngun, scored 1 for yes) exceeds the rule and stays above it in every later surveyWeightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1972-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey and the lower end of the interval in 20082008 yearEstimandfirst survey year in which the lower end of the 95% interval of the Republican minus Democratic gap in the within-year z-score of a gun in the home (owngun, scored 1 for yes) exceeds the rule and stays above it in every later surveyWeightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1972-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey, and the upper end of the interval has stayed above it since 19931993 yearEstimandfirst survey year from which the upper end of the 95% interval of the Republican minus Democratic gap in the within-year z-score of a gun in the home (owngun, scored 1 for yes) stays above the rule in every later surveyWeightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1972-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey, so the data allow dates from 19931993 yearEstimandfirst survey year from which the upper end of the 95% interval of the Republican minus Democratic gap in the within-year z-score of a gun in the home (owngun, scored 1 for yes) stays above the rule in every later surveyWeightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1972-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey to 20082008 yearEstimandfirst survey year in which the lower end of the 95% interval of the Republican minus Democratic gap in the within-year z-score of a gun in the home (owngun, scored 1 for yes) exceeds the rule and stays above it in every later surveyWeightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1972-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey. This chapter standardizes over the Democratic and Republican identifiers in each survey, and the code of that chapter standardizes over all respondents with the item; the dates are the same either way.

    The personal ownership question gives a different Republican result. It is a follow-up that asks respondents who report a gun in the home whether any gun belongs to them, and it starts in 1980. In 1980 the share personally owning a gun was 29.6%29.6% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS personally owns a gun follow-up (rowngun, asked of respondents with a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owning), answer yesInterval95% CI 25.6% to 33.7%n733Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1980 (GSS)SourceGeneral Social Survey among Democrats and 31.5%31.5% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS personally owns a gun follow-up (rowngun, asked of respondents with a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owning), answer yesInterval95% CI 26.2% to 36.7%n437Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1980 (GSS)SourceGeneral Social Survey among Republicans, and in 2016 to 2024 it was 15.8%15.8% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS personally owns a gun follow-up (rowngun, asked of respondents with a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owning), answer yesInterval95% CI 14.5% to 17.1%n5,209Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey and 38.6%38.6% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS personally owns a gun follow-up (rowngun, asked of respondents with a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owning), answer yesInterval95% CI 36.4% to 40.8%n3,610Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey. The Democratic share fell by 13.8 (95% CI 9.5 to 18.1)13.8 percentage pointsEstimandfall in the weighted share, 1980 minus the late period (two separate samples); the GSS personally owns a gun follow-up (rowngun, asked of respondents with a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owning), answer yesInterval95% CI 9.5 to 18.1n5,942Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points and the Republican share changed by +7.1 (95% CI 1.5 to 12.8)+7.1 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus 1980 share (two separate samples); the GSS personally owns a gun follow-up (rowngun, asked of respondents with a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owning), answer yesInterval95% CI 1.5 to 12.8n4,047Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points, so the gap grew from 1.8 (95% CI −4.8 to 8.4)1.8 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the GSS personally owns a gun follow-up (rowngun, asked of respondents with a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owning), answer yesInterval95% CI −4.8 to 8.4n1,170Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1980 (GSS)SourceGeneral Social Survey to 22.8 (95% CI 20.2 to 25.3)22.8 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the GSS personally owns a gun follow-up (rowngun, asked of respondents with a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owning), answer yesInterval95% CI 20.2 to 25.3n8,819Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points. The Republican change depends on mode: it is +3.5 (95% CI −2.7 to 9.8)+3.5 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus 1980 share (two separate samples); the GSS personally owns a gun follow-up (rowngun, asked of respondents with a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owning), answer yesInterval95% CI −2.7 to 9.8n1,963Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home question interviewed in personPeriod1980 to 2016 to 2024, in-person interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey points among respondents interviewed in person, an interval that includes zero, and +9.7 (95% CI 3.7 to 15.8)+9.7 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus 1980 share (two separate samples); the GSS personally owns a gun follow-up (rowngun, asked of respondents with a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owning), answer yesInterval95% CI 3.7 to 15.8n2,118Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home question interviewed on the webPeriod1980 to 2016 to 2024, web interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey points among those interviewed on the web. The in-person Republican share runs from 33.1%33.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandlowest of the yearly weighted Republican shares personally owning a gun in the GSS surveys of 2016 to 2024 with enough respondents; the GSS personally owns a gun follow-up (rowngun, asked of respondents with a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owning), answer yesWeightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home question, interviewed in personPeriod2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey to 38.3%38.3% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandhighest of the yearly weighted Republican shares personally owning a gun in the GSS surveys of 2016 to 2024 with enough respondents; the GSS personally owns a gun follow-up (rowngun, asked of respondents with a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owning), answer yesWeightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home question, interviewed in personPeriod2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey across the 2016 to 2024 surveys and the web share from 40.0%40.0% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandlowest of the yearly weighted Republican shares personally owning a gun in the GSS surveys of 2016 to 2024 with enough respondents; the GSS personally owns a gun follow-up (rowngun, asked of respondents with a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owning), answer yesWeightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home question, interviewed on the webPeriod2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey to 42.7%42.7% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandhighest of the yearly weighted Republican shares personally owning a gun in the GSS surveys of 2016 to 2024 with enough respondents; the GSS personally owns a gun follow-up (rowngun, asked of respondents with a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owning), answer yesWeightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home question, interviewed on the webPeriod2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey, so the Republican rise in personal ownership coincides with the web surveys and is not an established change.

    Republican respondents refuse the household question more often than Democrats. In 2016 to 2024 5.4%5.4% percent of respondents who were asked the household questionEstimandweighted share who refused or skipped the question (owngun refused, or missing with rowngun refused)Interval95% CI 4.4% to 6.4%n3,806Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who were asked the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey of Republican respondents refused or skipped it against 1.0%1.0% percent of respondents who were asked the household questionEstimandweighted share who refused or skipped the question (owngun refused, or missing with rowngun refused)Interval95% CI 0.6% to 1.3%n5,257Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who were asked the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey of Democrats, and in 1973 to 1980 the shares were 0.5%0.5% percent of respondents who were asked the household questionEstimandweighted share who refused or skipped the question (owngun refused, or missing with rowngun refused)Interval95% CI 0.2% to 0.9%n2,233Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who were asked the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey and 0.6%0.6% percent of respondents who were asked the household questionEstimandweighted share who refused or skipped the question (owngun refused, or missing with rowngun refused)Interval95% CI 0.3% to 0.8%n4,077Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who were asked the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey. The estimates above drop these respondents. Smith, Laken and Son estimate that most respondents who refused the question in the surveys of 1973 to 2012 were gun owners [4]. That estimate does not cover 2016 to 2024, but if it carries over, the dropped-refusal gap is more likely to be too low than too high, and the range from 25.125.1 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican minus Democratic gap in a gun in the home when every refusal is counted as a nonownerInterval95% CI 22.4 to 27.8n9,063Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who were asked the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey to 29.529.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican minus Democratic gap in a gun in the home when every refusal is counted as an ownerInterval95% CI 26.8 to 32.2n9,063Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who were asked the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points does not change the pattern.

    Support for a police permit fell among Republicans

    The GSS has asked whether respondents favor a law requiring a police permit before buying a gun in 3232 surveysEstimandcount of survey years with the itemWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS survey years that asked the police permit questionPeriod1972-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey surveys since 1972. In 1973 to 1980 75.1%75.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 73.7% to 76.5%n4,827Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973 to 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey of Democrats and 71.0%71.0% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 69.0% to 72.9%n2,646Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973 to 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey of Republicans were in favor, a gap of 4.1 (95% CI 1.8 to 6.5)4.1 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 1.8 to 6.5n7,473Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973 to 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points. In 2016 to 2024 the shares were 82.9%82.9% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 81.6% to 84.3%n5,197Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey and 53.5%53.5% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 51.3% to 55.7%n3,772Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey (Figure 3). The Republican share fell by 17.5 (95% CI 14.5 to 20.4)17.5 percentage pointsEstimandfall in the weighted share, early period minus late period (two separate samples); the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 14.5 to 20.4n6,418Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points, the Democratic share rose by 7.8 (95% CI 5.9 to 9.8)7.8 percentage pointsEstimandrise in the weighted share, late period minus early period (two separate samples); the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 5.9 to 9.8n10,024Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points, and the independent share changed by −5.9 (95% CI −9.8 to −2.0)−5.9 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus early-period share (two separate samples); the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI −9.8 to −2.0n3,556Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationindependents who lean toward neither party who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points. Among respondents interviewed in person the Republican fall is 12.6 (95% CI 8.7 to 16.6)12.6 percentage pointsEstimandfall in the weighted share, early period minus late period (two separate samples); the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 8.7 to 16.6n4,237Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit question interviewed in personPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024, in-person interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey points and the Democratic rise 6.7 (95% CI 4.1 to 9.2)6.7 percentage pointsEstimandrise in the weighted share, late period minus early period (two separate samples); the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 4.1 to 9.2n7,001Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit question interviewed in personPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024, in-person interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey points, so the gap is 23.4 (95% CI 19.3 to 27.5)23.4 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 19.3 to 27.5n3,765Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit question interviewed in personPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled), in-person interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey points in person against 34.5 (95% CI 30.9 to 38.1)34.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 30.9 to 38.1n4,247Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit question interviewed on the webPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled), web interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey on the web, a web minus in-person difference of 11.1 (95% CI 5.6 to 16.5)11.1 percentage pointsEstimandgap among respondents interviewed on the web minus the gap among respondents interviewed in person (two separate groups, different survey years); the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 5.6 to 16.5n8,012Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points. That comparison mixes mode and survey year. The interval for the Republican share in 2016 to 2024 lies above an even split, so most Republican identifiers still favor a permit in these data, and so do 68.7%68.7% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 67.5% to 69.8%n11,884Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationall respondents who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey of all respondents, against 73.6%73.6% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 72.6% to 74.6%n8,789Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationall respondents who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973 to 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey in 1973 to 1980. Majority support for a gun measure in surveys is the setting of the study by Schuman and Presser [2], who asked how strongly respondents hold their views. The GSS has no measure of strength.

    Figure 3

    Support for a police permit to buy a gun rose among Democrats and fell among Republicans

    Share favoring a police permit to buy a gun (GSS) or favoring making it more difficult to buy a gun (ANES), by party identification; leaners are in the parties and independents lean toward neither; 95% intervals

    Show data
    Data for Support for a police permit to buy a gun rose among Democrats and fell among Republicans
    Survey and answerGroupYearFileShare (%)LowerUpperRespondents
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunDemocrats2000ANES cumulative file68.965.572.3884
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunDemocrats2004ANES cumulative file68.264.072.3587
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunDemocrats2008ANES cumulative file55.752.259.11,348
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunDemocrats2012ANES cumulative file63.160.765.53,094
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunDemocrats2016ANES cumulative file74.071.776.41,935
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunDemocrats2020ANES cumulative file75.373.377.33,441
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunDemocrats2024ANES 2024 Time Series82.280.084.52,319
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunIndependents2000ANES cumulative file58.351.065.7220
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunIndependents2008ANES cumulative file49.241.556.9259
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunIndependents2012ANES cumulative file46.642.051.2780
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunIndependents2016ANES cumulative file45.941.050.9570
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunIndependents2020ANES cumulative file42.938.347.4863
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunIndependents2024ANES 2024 Time Series48.540.356.8302
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunRepublicans2000ANES cumulative file44.540.448.7675
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunRepublicans2004ANES cumulative file41.837.046.6482
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunRepublicans2008ANES cumulative file35.431.139.7652
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunRepublicans2012ANES cumulative file26.223.828.71,991
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunRepublicans2016ANES cumulative file30.928.333.51,722
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunRepublicans2020ANES cumulative file22.420.424.33,050
    ANES: more difficult to buy a gunRepublicans2024ANES 2024 Time Series31.528.634.42,070
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1972GSS75.272.078.3891
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1973GSS77.173.980.3784
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1974GSS77.274.180.4818
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1975GSS77.574.380.8793
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1976GSS74.270.977.5827
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1977GSS73.770.477.0862
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1980GSS70.866.774.8743
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1982GSS74.771.378.21,083
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1984GSS75.972.079.7740
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1985GSS77.173.380.9743
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1987GSS70.466.874.01,008
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1988GSS79.975.984.0475
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1989GSS84.180.387.9474
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1990GSS84.580.388.6377
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1991GSS82.278.086.3422
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1993GSS84.881.288.3501
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1994GSS83.781.086.4935
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1996GSS86.283.688.8861
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats1998GSS86.884.389.4874
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats2000GSS86.884.189.5804
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats2002GSS85.881.889.8408
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats2004GSS84.980.889.1397
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats2006GSS87.284.490.0838
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats2008GSS84.781.388.2630
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats2010GSS83.679.887.3580
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats2012GSS80.877.084.7595
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats2014GSS83.880.786.9787
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats2016GSS79.776.483.1894
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats2018GSS83.479.886.9698
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats2021GSS82.280.084.51,814
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats2022GSS86.282.989.6963
    GSS: favor a police permitDemocrats2024GSS83.980.387.5828
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents1972GSS70.762.578.9156
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents1973GSS78.370.885.9140
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents1974GSS73.264.981.4139
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents1975GSS70.263.377.1202
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents1976GSS68.461.775.2228
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents1977GSS72.565.279.9171
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents1980GSS76.069.182.9237
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents1982GSS74.967.882.0218
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents1984GSS71.863.680.1151
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents1987GSS69.461.677.3189
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents1989GSS72.964.181.6120
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents1994GSS79.573.785.4239
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents1996GSS79.874.684.9294
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents1998GSS84.579.789.2299
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents2000GSS83.579.187.9353
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents2002GSS88.582.694.4164
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents2004GSS82.475.489.4149
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents2006GSS78.273.383.0413
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents2008GSS85.580.091.0218
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents2010GSS78.071.384.6231
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents2012GSS74.267.381.2245
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents2014GSS69.863.975.7314
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents2016GSS69.062.475.6299
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents2018GSS74.567.781.3261
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents2021GSS61.357.265.4806
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents2022GSS70.464.276.7535
    GSS: favor a police permitIndependents2024GSS68.663.074.1538
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1972GSS73.569.177.9445
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1973GSS71.366.975.7476
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1974GSS74.369.878.9423
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1975GSS71.666.976.2438
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1976GSS72.467.677.1409
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1977GSS69.965.374.6452
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1980GSS66.861.572.0448
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1982GSS68.163.073.2496
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1984GSS64.359.069.6513
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1985GSS73.469.077.7604
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1987GSS71.467.175.8560
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1988GSS70.565.375.7355
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1989GSS76.471.981.0410
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1990GSS77.973.382.4406
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1991GSS79.274.983.5417
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1993GSS79.274.783.7411
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1994GSS73.169.576.8731
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1996GSS77.173.780.5696
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans1998GSS78.374.782.0618
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans2000GSS72.268.376.2609
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans2002GSS72.767.178.3323
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans2004GSS74.869.580.1331
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans2006GSS73.869.877.7665
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans2008GSS67.061.972.1446
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans2010GSS63.357.769.0417
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans2012GSS63.457.469.4397
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans2014GSS58.353.563.1527
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans2016GSS59.154.463.9599
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans2018GSS60.454.866.1510
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans2021GSS46.943.550.31,229
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans2022GSS52.346.258.5700
    GSS: favor a police permitRepublicans2024GSS55.650.760.6734
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1972GSS75.272.078.3891
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1973GSS77.173.980.3784
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1974GSS77.274.180.4818
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1975GSS77.574.380.8793
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1976GSS74.270.977.5827
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1977GSS73.770.477.0862
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1980GSS70.866.774.8743
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1982GSS74.771.378.21,083
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1984GSS75.972.079.7740
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1985GSS77.173.380.9743
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1987GSS70.466.874.01,008
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1988GSS79.975.984.0475
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1989GSS84.180.387.9474
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1990GSS84.580.388.6377
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1991GSS82.278.086.3422
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1993GSS84.881.288.3501
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1994GSS83.781.086.4935
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1996GSS86.283.688.8861
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats1998GSS86.884.389.4874
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats2000GSS86.884.189.5804
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats2002GSS85.881.889.8408
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats2004GSS82.877.887.8301
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats2006GSS86.483.489.3787
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats2008GSS83.779.987.5552
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats2010GSS84.080.188.0517
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats2012GSS81.377.285.5520
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats2014GSS83.079.686.4685
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats2016GSS79.375.882.8830
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats2018GSS83.479.687.1628
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats2022GSS84.579.389.7434
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Democrats2024GSS80.574.087.0282
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents1972GSS70.762.578.9156
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents1973GSS78.370.885.9140
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents1974GSS73.264.981.4139
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents1975GSS70.263.377.1202
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents1976GSS68.461.775.2228
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents1977GSS72.565.279.9171
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents1980GSS76.069.182.9237
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents1982GSS74.967.882.0218
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents1984GSS71.863.680.1151
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents1987GSS69.461.677.3189
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents1989GSS72.964.181.6120
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents1994GSS79.573.785.4239
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents1996GSS79.874.684.9294
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents1998GSS84.579.789.2299
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents2000GSS83.579.187.9353
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents2002GSS88.582.694.4164
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents2006GSS77.972.983.0387
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents2008GSS84.978.990.9187
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents2010GSS76.168.983.4209
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents2012GSS73.265.680.8214
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents2014GSS69.262.775.6264
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents2016GSS69.162.375.9285
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Independents2018GSS74.166.681.6222
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1972GSS73.569.177.9445
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1973GSS71.366.975.7476
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1974GSS74.369.878.9423
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1975GSS71.666.976.2438
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1976GSS72.467.677.1409
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1977GSS69.965.374.6452
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1980GSS66.861.572.0448
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1982GSS68.163.073.2496
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1984GSS64.359.069.6513
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1985GSS73.469.077.7604
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1987GSS71.467.175.8560
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1988GSS70.565.375.7355
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1989GSS76.471.981.0410
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1990GSS77.973.382.4406
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1991GSS79.274.983.5417
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1993GSS79.274.783.7411
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1994GSS73.169.576.8731
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1996GSS77.173.780.5696
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans1998GSS78.374.782.0618
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans2000GSS72.268.376.2609
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans2002GSS72.767.178.3323
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans2004GSS73.867.979.7265
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans2006GSS72.368.276.4622
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans2008GSS68.363.073.6398
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans2010GSS61.855.867.8372
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans2012GSS59.252.765.7333
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans2014GSS56.451.361.6465
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans2016GSS58.553.563.4560
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans2018GSS60.654.866.3459
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans2022GSS53.744.562.9322
    GSS: favor a police permit (in person)Republicans2024GSS62.153.670.7250
    In the GSS view the Republican line falls from 71.0% in 1973 to 1980 to 53.5% in 2016 to 2024 while the Democratic line rises from 75.1% to 82.9%. Bands on the party lines are 95% confidence intervals and the shaded band marks a change of survey mode. The in-person view keeps respondents interviewed in person. The two questions differ, so only direction and timing are comparable.Note: Shaded band: the GSS move from in-person to web interviews between 2018 and 2021 in the GSS view, and the ANES mode change from 2016 to 2020 in the ANES view. The in-person GSS view keeps respondents interviewed in person and every survey before 2004, so its line breaks in 2021, a survey with no in-person respondents.Note: The ANES cumulative file asks the question in 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020. The 2024 point is the same question from the 2024 Time Series, a separate file because the cumulative file does not have the item for 2024; it is weighted with the post-election weight, and the 2020 study had no in-person interviews.Note: An independent cell is drawn only where it has at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100.Source: General Social Survey, 1972-2024, and ANES Cumulative Data File, 2000-2020, with the ANES 2024 Time Series; weighted (weight_use; VCF0009z; V240107b)

    Figure 4 puts the ownership gap, the permit gap and the ANES gap on one axis. By the dating rule of Chapter 1.3, Sort dates by attitude, the gap in opposing a permit passes 0.250.25 standard deviations of the answerEstimandthreshold of the sort-date rule of the chapter Sort dates by attitudeWeightsnone (count)Populationthe party gap on an attitudePeriodall survey yearsSourceGeneral Social Survey SD by its point estimate in 20002000 yearEstimandfirst survey year in which the point estimate of the Republican minus Democratic gap in the within-year z-score of opposing a police permit (gunlaw, scored 1 for oppose) exceeds the rule and stays above it in every later surveyWeightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod1972-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey and by its lower bound in 20142014 yearEstimandfirst survey year in which the lower end of the 95% interval of the Republican minus Democratic gap in the within-year z-score of opposing a police permit (gunlaw, scored 1 for oppose) exceeds the rule and stays above it in every later surveyWeightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod1972-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey, against 19981998 yearEstimandfirst survey year in which the point estimate of the Republican minus Democratic gap in the within-year z-score of a gun in the home (owngun, scored 1 for yes) exceeds the rule and stays above it in every later surveyWeightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1972-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey and 20082008 yearEstimandfirst survey year in which the lower end of the 95% interval of the Republican minus Democratic gap in the within-year z-score of a gun in the home (owngun, scored 1 for yes) exceeds the rule and stays above it in every later surveyWeightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1972-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey for ownership. The point-estimate dates fall in adjacent surveys, and the upper end of the interval stays above the mark from 19931993 yearEstimandfirst survey year from which the upper end of the 95% interval of the Republican minus Democratic gap in the within-year z-score of opposing a police permit (gunlaw, scored 1 for oppose) stays above the rule in every later surveyWeightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod1972-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey for the permit item as it does for ownership. The difference between the two z-scored gaps, ownership minus permit, has an interval that excludes zero in 1987, 2021 and 2022 and in no survey from 1993 to 2018, so the data do not order the two openings.

    The ANES asks whether the government should make buying a gun more difficult, easier, or leave the rules as they are, in six studies from 2000 to 2020. The Democratic share saying more difficult was 68.9%68.9% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES question on buying a gun (VCF9238), answer more difficultInterval95% CI 65.5% to 72.3%n884Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2000SourceANES Cumulative Data File in 2000 and 75.3%75.3% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES question on buying a gun (VCF9238), answer more difficultInterval95% CI 73.3% to 77.3%n3,441Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File in 2020, a change of +6.4 (95% CI 2.5 to 10.4)+6.4 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, 2020 minus 2000 (two separate samples); the ANES question on buying a gun (VCF9238), answer more difficultInterval95% CI 2.5 to 10.4n4,325Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2000 to 2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File points. The Republican share was 44.5%44.5% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES question on buying a gun (VCF9238), answer more difficultInterval95% CI 40.4% to 48.7%n675Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2000SourceANES Cumulative Data File and 22.4%22.4% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES question on buying a gun (VCF9238), answer more difficultInterval95% CI 20.4% to 24.3%n3,050Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File, a fall of 22.2 (95% CI 17.6 to 26.7)22.2 percentage pointsEstimandfall in the weighted share, 2000 minus 2020 (two separate samples); the ANES question on buying a gun (VCF9238), answer more difficultInterval95% CI 17.6 to 26.7n3,725Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2000 to 2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, and the gap grew from 24.4 (95% CI 19.0 to 29.7)24.4 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the ANES question on buying a gun (VCF9238), answer more difficultInterval95% CI 19.0 to 29.7n1,559Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2000SourceANES Cumulative Data File to 53.0 (95% CI 50.2 to 55.8)53.0 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the ANES question on buying a gun (VCF9238), answer more difficultInterval95% CI 50.2 to 55.8n6,491Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File points. The ANES gap is already above the mark in its first study: the lower end of the 2000 interval is 0.380.38 standard deviations of the answerEstimandlower end of the 95% interval of the Republican minus Democratic gap in the within-year z-score of the three-answer question (VCF9238, scored 1 more difficult, 2 same, 3 easier)n1,559Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2000SourceANES Cumulative Data File SD, so the ANES cannot say when the gap opened. The cumulative file does not have the item for 2024, and the 2024 Time Series, a separate file, asks it with the same three answers. In it 82.2%82.2% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the 2024 ANES question on buying a gun (V242325), answer more difficultInterval95% CI 80.0% to 84.5%n2,319Weightsw_post (V240107b, post-election); w_post_ftf and w_post_web for the mode viewsPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the 2024 ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2024SourceANES 2024 Time Series of Democrats and 31.5%31.5% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the 2024 ANES question on buying a gun (V242325), answer more difficultInterval95% CI 28.6% to 34.4%n2,070Weightsw_post (V240107b, post-election); w_post_ftf and w_post_web for the mode viewsPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the 2024 ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2024SourceANES 2024 Time Series of Republicans favor making buying a gun more difficult, a gap of 50.7 (95% CI 47.0 to 54.3)50.7 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the 2024 ANES question on buying a gun (V242325), answer more difficultInterval95% CI 47.0 to 54.3n4,389Weightsw_post (V240107b, post-election); w_post_ftf and w_post_web for the mode viewsPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the 2024 ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2024SourceANES 2024 Time Series points. From 2020 to 2024 the Democratic share changed by +6.9 (95% CI 3.9 to 9.9)+6.9 percentage pointsEstimand2024 Time Series weighted share (post-election weight) minus 2020 cumulative-file weighted share (two separate samples); the ANES question on buying a gun (VCF9238), answer more difficultInterval95% CI 3.9 to 9.9n5,760Weightsw_post (V240107b, post-election); w_post_ftf and w_post_web for the mode viewsPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2020 to 2024SourceANES 2024 Time Series points, the Republican share by +9.1 (95% CI 5.7 to 12.6)+9.1 percentage pointsEstimand2024 Time Series weighted share (post-election weight) minus 2020 cumulative-file weighted share (two separate samples); the ANES question on buying a gun (VCF9238), answer more difficultInterval95% CI 5.7 to 12.6n5,120Weightsw_post (V240107b, post-election); w_post_ftf and w_post_web for the mode viewsPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2020 to 2024SourceANES 2024 Time Series points and the gap by −2.3 (95% CI −6.9 to 2.3)−2.3 percentage pointsEstimand2024 Time Series gap minus 2020 cumulative-file gap, Democratic minus Republican share (two separate samples); the ANES question on buying a gun (VCF9238), answer more difficultInterval95% CI −6.9 to 2.3n10,880Weightsw_post (V240107b, post-election); w_post_ftf and w_post_web for the mode viewsPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2020 to 2024SourceANES 2024 Time Series points, an interval that includes zero. The 2020 study had no in-person interviews and the 2024 study mixes modes, so that change mixes mode and time.

    Figure 4

    The party gaps on gun ownership and gun permits were at most 13.2 points through 1996 and at least 17.4 points from 2008

    Gap between the parties in the share with a gun in the home (Republican minus Democratic) and in the share favoring a police permit or making buying a gun more difficult (Democratic minus Republican); party identifiers including leaners; 95% intervals

    Show data
    Data for The party gaps on gun ownership and gun permits were at most 13.2 points through 1996 and at least 17.4 points from 2008
    SeriesYearFileGap (points)LowerUpperRespondents
    ANES: more difficult2000ANES cumulative file24.419.029.71,559
    ANES: more difficult2004ANES cumulative file26.320.032.71,069
    ANES: more difficult2008ANES cumulative file20.314.825.82,000
    ANES: more difficult2012ANES cumulative file36.833.440.35,085
    ANES: more difficult2016ANES cumulative file43.139.646.63,657
    ANES: more difficult2020ANES cumulative file53.050.255.86,491
    ANES: more difficult2024ANES 2024 Time Series50.747.054.34,389
    GSS: gun in the home1973GSS10.94.817.11,270
    GSS: gun in the home1974GSS8.31.914.61,245
    GSS: gun in the home1976GSS6.2−0.312.71,233
    GSS: gun in the home1977GSS3.8−2.410.11,329
    GSS: gun in the home1980GSS5.0−2.112.11,197
    GSS: gun in the home1982GSS5.4−1.412.11,593
    GSS: gun in the home1984GSS13.26.220.21,270
    GSS: gun in the home1985GSS1.5−5.28.21,354
    GSS: gun in the home1987GSS7.71.513.91,583
    GSS: gun in the home1988GSS12.14.619.7839
    GSS: gun in the home1989GSS10.12.717.5895
    GSS: gun in the home1990GSS9.01.216.7794
    GSS: gun in the home1991GSS2.2−5.49.7841
    GSS: gun in the home1993GSS11.54.118.8921
    GSS: gun in the home1994GSS12.47.017.81,670
    GSS: gun in the home1996GSS10.45.015.91,577
    GSS: gun in the home1998GSS14.38.719.91,509
    GSS: gun in the home2000GSS18.012.423.71,428
    GSS: gun in the home2002GSS15.26.923.5727
    GSS: gun in the home2004GSS14.76.622.8720
    GSS: gun in the home2006GSS15.09.120.91,511
    GSS: gun in the home2008GSS22.815.829.71,075
    GSS: gun in the home2010GSS27.520.134.8969
    GSS: gun in the home2012GSS27.720.035.4982
    GSS: gun in the home2014GSS26.720.532.91,283
    GSS: gun in the home2016GSS23.817.829.81,470
    GSS: gun in the home2018GSS28.321.335.31,195
    GSS: gun in the home2021GSS29.325.033.52,996
    GSS: gun in the home2022GSS24.016.331.81,630
    GSS: gun in the home2024GSS30.724.137.41,542
    GSS: police permit1972GSS1.7−3.77.11,336
    GSS: police permit1973GSS5.80.411.31,260
    GSS: police permit1974GSS2.9−2.68.41,241
    GSS: police permit1975GSS6.00.311.61,231
    GSS: police permit1976GSS1.8−4.07.61,236
    GSS: police permit1977GSS3.7−2.09.51,314
    GSS: police permit1980GSS4.0−2.610.61,191
    GSS: police permit1982GSS6.60.512.81,579
    GSS: police permit1984GSS11.55.018.11,253
    GSS: police permit1985GSS3.7−2.19.51,347
    GSS: police permit1987GSS−1.0−6.74.61,568
    GSS: police permit1988GSS9.52.916.1830
    GSS: police permit1989GSS7.71.713.6884
    GSS: police permit1990GSS6.60.412.7783
    GSS: police permit1991GSS2.9−3.08.9839
    GSS: police permit1993GSS5.6−0.111.3912
    GSS: police permit1994GSS10.56.015.01,666
    GSS: police permit1996GSS9.14.813.41,557
    GSS: police permit1998GSS8.54.012.91,492
    GSS: police permit2000GSS14.69.819.31,413
    GSS: police permit2002GSS13.16.219.9731
    GSS: police permit2004GSS10.13.416.9728
    GSS: police permit2006GSS13.58.618.31,503
    GSS: police permit2008GSS17.811.623.91,076
    GSS: police permit2010GSS20.213.427.0997
    GSS: police permit2012GSS17.410.324.6992
    GSS: police permit2014GSS25.519.831.21,314
    GSS: police permit2016GSS20.614.826.41,493
    GSS: police permit2018GSS22.916.329.61,208
    GSS: police permit2021GSS35.331.339.43,043
    GSS: police permit2022GSS33.926.940.91,663
    GSS: police permit2024GSS28.322.234.41,562
    Both GSS lines are higher from 2008 on than in any survey through 1996, and the ANES line, which starts in 2000, is higher in 2020 than in 2000, though no line rises at every survey. A value above zero means the party named first was more likely to give the answer. Each line joins survey years, bands are 95% confidence intervals, shaded bands mark changes of survey mode, and the ANES point for 2024 comes from the 2024 Time Series file.Note: The GSS items are asked in different numbers of survey years, so the lines have different points. A party cell needs at least 150 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100, and a gap needs both parties to clear that floor.Note: Shaded bands: the ANES mode change from 2016 to 2020 and the GSS move from in-person to web interviews between 2018 and 2021.Source: General Social Survey, 1972-2024, and ANES Cumulative Data File, 2000-2020, with the ANES 2024 Time Series; weighted (weight_use; VCF0009z; V240107b)

    The permit gap holds among owners and nonowners

    A party difference in support for a permit could be a difference in who owns guns. Among respondents who answered both questions, the gap in favoring a permit in 2016 to 2024 was 28.1 (95% CI 23.8 to 32.4)28.1 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 23.8 to 32.4n3,177Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) with a gun in the home, who answered both GSS questionsPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points among respondents with a gun in the home and 22.1 (95% CI 18.5 to 25.6)22.1 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 18.5 to 25.6n5,561Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) without a gun in the home, who answered both GSS questionsPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points among those without one, so it is larger among owners than among nonowners by 6.0 (95% CI 0.5 to 11.6)6.0 percentage pointsEstimandDemocratic minus Republican gap among respondents with a gun in the home minus the gap among those without (four groups); the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 0.5 to 11.6n8,738Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered both GSS questionsPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points. In 1973 to 1980 the two gaps were 0.9 (95% CI −3.1 to 4.9)0.9 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI −3.1 to 4.9n2,995Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) with a gun in the home, who answered both GSS questionsPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey and 3.2 (95% CI 0.2 to 6.3)3.2 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 0.2 to 6.3n3,182Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) without a gun in the home, who answered both GSS questionsPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points. Within each party, owners are less likely than nonowners to favor a permit: 75.3%75.3% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 72.2% to 78.3%n1,320Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) with a gun in the home, who answered both GSS questionsPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey against 85.8%85.8% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 84.3% to 87.3%n3,831Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) without a gun in the home, who answered both GSS questionsPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey among Democrats, a difference of −10.6 (95% CI −14.0 to −7.2)−10.6 percentage pointsEstimandweighted share among respondents with a gun in the home minus the share among those without (two groups); the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI −14.0 to −7.2n5,151Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered both GSS questionsPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points, and 47.2%47.2% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 44.2% to 50.2%n1,857Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) with a gun in the home, who answered both GSS questionsPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey against 63.8%63.8% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 60.5% to 67.0%n1,730Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) without a gun in the home, who answered both GSS questionsPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey among Republicans, a difference of −16.6 (95% CI −21.0 to −12.2)−16.6 percentage pointsEstimandweighted share among respondents with a gun in the home minus the share among those without (two groups); the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI −21.0 to −12.2n3,587Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered both GSS questionsPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points. A Democratic owner is more likely to favor a permit than a Republican nonowner, by 11.5 (95% CI 7.1 to 15.9)11.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted share of Democrats with a gun in the home favoring a permit minus the share of Republicans without one (two groups); the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 7.1 to 15.9n3,050Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic owners and Republican nonowners (leaners included), who answered both GSS questionsPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points, which is the amount by which the party gap among nonowners exceeds the owner difference among Democrats. Against the owner difference among Republicans the nonowner gap is larger by 5.5 (95% CI −1.8 to 12.8)5.5 percentage pointsEstimandDemocratic minus Republican gap among respondents without a gun in the home minus the size of the difference between Republican owners and Republican nonowners (four groups); the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI −1.8 to 12.8n7,418Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered both GSS questionsPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points, an interval that includes zero.

    The ownership gap appears within regions and kinds of community

    Ownership differs by place, so the party gap could be a place gap. Figure 5 compares the parties within four census regions and four community types. In 2016 to 2024 the Republican share is higher in every row, by between 14.014.0 percentage pointsEstimandlowest of the eight weighted Republican minus Democratic gaps; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesWeightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) in each of four regions and four community types, who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey and 29.329.3 percentage pointsEstimandhighest of the eight weighted Republican minus Democratic gaps; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesWeightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) in each of four regions and four community types, who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points. The gap is smallest in point terms in rural areas (14.0 (95% CI 4.5 to 23.5)14.0 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 4.5 to 23.5n662Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) in the rural area, who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey), where Democrats are most likely to have a gun (57.1%57.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 49.7% to 64.6%n267Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) in the rural area who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey). The rural cells are small: the Democratic cell has 267267 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents in the rural Democratic cellWeightsnone (count)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) in rural areas who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey respondents, 4.4%4.4% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share living in a rural area (community type from the NORC size-of-place code)Interval95% CI 3.7% to 5.2%n5,211Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey of Democratic respondents in 2016 to 2024. In 1973 to 1980 the gap ran from −1.5−1.5 percentage pointsEstimandlowest of the eight weighted Republican minus Democratic gaps; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesWeightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) in each of four regions and four community types, who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey to 16.816.8 percentage pointsEstimandhighest of the eight weighted Republican minus Democratic gaps; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesWeightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) in each of four regions and four community types, who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points and its interval included zero in 44 rowsEstimandcount of the eight rows in which the 95% interval of the Republican minus Democratic gap includes zeroWeightsnone (count)Populationfour regions and four community typesPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey of 88 rowsEstimandcount of regions and community types in the place figureWeightsnone (count)Populationfour regions and four community typesPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey rows. It was largest in the Northeast (16.8 (95% CI 11.0 to 22.5)16.8 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 11.0 to 22.5n1,334Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) in the northeast, who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey), where Democrats were least likely to have a gun (22.7%22.7% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 19.5% to 25.9%n851Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) in the northeast who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey), and near zero in rural areas (2.1 (95% CI −3.2 to 7.5)2.1 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI −3.2 to 7.5n1,218Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) in the rural area, who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey) and in the West and in small cities and towns.

    Figure 5

    Republicans were more likely than Democrats to live in a household with a gun in every region and kind of community

    Share with a gun in the home among Democrats and Republicans, including leaners, by census region and community type, GSS surveys of 2016 to 2024 pooled; 95% intervals

    • Democrats
    • Republicans
    Show data
    Data for Republicans were more likely than Democrats to live in a household with a gun in every region and kind of community
    SurveysKind of placePlaceDemocrats (%)LowerUpperDemocrats countedRepublicans (%)LowerUpperRepublicans counted
    1973 to 1980RegionNortheast22.719.525.985139.434.644.2483
    2016 to 2024RegionNortheast14.411.417.494442.036.147.8469
    1973 to 1980RegionMidwest51.248.054.51,14357.052.861.1653
    2016 to 2024RegionMidwest30.526.934.11,20455.851.060.6918
    1973 to 1980RegionSouth61.458.564.41,35467.363.471.2708
    2016 to 2024RegionSouth30.327.533.11,83858.254.961.51,557
    1973 to 1980RegionWest47.243.051.370647.141.552.7376
    2016 to 2024RegionWest23.620.426.71,22546.441.351.4678
    1973 to 1980Community typeCentral city33.931.036.81,37942.938.147.8516
    2016 to 2024Community typeCentral city18.916.521.31,81539.634.544.7794
    1973 to 1980Community typeSuburb44.341.547.21,44448.344.751.9896
    2016 to 2024Community typeSuburb26.324.128.42,86354.151.356.92,149
    1973 to 1980Community typeSmall city or town57.753.162.352356.250.062.4298
    2016 to 2024Community typeSmall city or town31.424.338.526660.753.268.1284
    1973 to 1980Community typeRural area74.971.378.470877.073.081.0510
    2016 to 2024Community typeRural area57.149.764.626771.165.276.9395
    In every row the Republican dot is to the right of the Democratic dot, and the gap is smallest in point terms in rural areas, where Democrats are most likely to have a gun and the cells are small. Each row joins the Democratic share (open dot) to the Republican share (filled dot) with 95% confidence intervals. The second view shows the 1973 to 1980 surveys, when the gap was near zero in several rows.Note: Community type groups the NORC size-of-place code: central cities of large and medium metropolitan areas, their suburbs and unincorporated areas, small cities and towns outside those areas, and rural areas (villages, hamlets and open country). Region is the census region of interview.Note: Years are pooled after rescaling each year's weights to average one. A party cell needs at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100.Source: General Social Survey, 1973-1980 and 2016-2024; weighted (weight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooled)

    Place relates to ownership within each party. In 2016 to 2024 57.1%57.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 49.7% to 64.6%n267Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) in the rural area who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey of Democrats in rural areas had a gun in the home against 18.9%18.9% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 16.5% to 21.3%n1,815Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) in the central city who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey in central cities, a difference of 38.2 (95% CI 30.4 to 46.0)38.2 percentage pointsEstimandweighted share in rural areas minus weighted share in central cities (two groups); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 30.4 to 46.0n2,082Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points, and among Republicans the shares were 71.1%71.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 65.2% to 76.9%n395Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) in the rural area who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey and 39.6%39.6% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 34.5% to 44.7%n794Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) in the central city who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey, a difference of 31.5 (95% CI 23.7 to 39.3)31.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted share in rural areas minus weighted share in central cities (two groups); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 23.7 to 39.3n1,189Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points. Democrats in rural areas were more likely to have a gun than Republicans in central cities by 17.5 (95% CI 8.5 to 26.6)17.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted share of rural Democrats minus weighted share of central-city Republicans with a gun in the home (two groups); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 8.5 to 26.6n1,061Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers in rural areas and Republican identifiers in central cities (leaners included), who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points, and the difference was 31.9 (95% CI 25.9 to 38.0)31.9 percentage pointsEstimandweighted share of rural Democrats minus weighted share of central-city Republicans with a gun in the home (two groups); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 25.9 to 38.0n1,224Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers in rural areas and Republican identifiers in central cities (leaners included), who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points in 1973 to 1980.

    The place mix of the Democratic Party also changed. The share of Democratic respondents living in suburbs rose from 36.9%36.9% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share living in a suburb (community type from the NORC size-of-place code)Interval95% CI 35.2% to 38.6%n4,054Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey to 57.1%57.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share living in a suburb (community type from the NORC size-of-place code)Interval95% CI 55.3% to 58.9%n5,211Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey, and the share in rural areas fell from 16.5%16.5% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share living in a rural area (community type from the NORC size-of-place code)Interval95% CI 15.2% to 17.8%n4,054Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey to 4.4%4.4% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share living in a rural area (community type from the NORC size-of-place code)Interval95% CI 3.7% to 5.2%n5,211Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey. Because rural respondents are most likely to have a gun, part of the Democratic fall could be a change in where Democrats live. Net of region and community type, in a linear probability modelLinear probability modelA regression of a yes-or-no outcome on predictors, fitted by least squares so that each coefficient is a change in the probability of yes. The book weights it and reports robust standard errors. with the region by community interaction and HC3HC3 robust standard errorsA way of computing standard errors that stays valid when the spread of the outcome differs across respondents, with a correction for small samples. The book uses it for regressions that have no clusters. errors, the Democratic change is −18.7 (95% CI −21.0 to −16.3)−18.7 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period minus early-period share from a weighted linear probability model with the interaction of region and community type, HC3 errors; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI −21.0 to −16.3n9,265Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points against −22.0 (95% CI −24.4 to −19.7)−22.0 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus early-period share (two separate samples); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI −24.4 to −19.7n9,265Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey without them, and the Republican change is −1.2 (95% CI −4.4 to 2.1)−1.2 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period minus early-period share from a weighted linear probability model with the interaction of region and community type, HC3 errors; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI −4.4 to 2.1n5,842Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points. The gap in 2016 to 2024 net of place is 23.6 (95% CI 20.9 to 26.4)23.6 percentage pointsEstimandRepublican minus Democratic gap from a weighted linear probability model with the interaction of region and community type, HC3 errors; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 20.9 to 26.4n8,833Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points against 27.7 (95% CI 24.9 to 30.4)27.7 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 24.9 to 30.4n8,833Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey raw, and in 1973 to 1980 it is 4.5 (95% CI 1.8 to 7.3)4.5 percentage pointsEstimandRepublican minus Democratic gap from a weighted linear probability model with the interaction of region and community type, HC3 errors; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 1.8 to 7.3n6,274Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey against 6.8 (95% CI 4.0 to 9.7)6.8 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 4.0 to 9.7n6,274Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey. Adjusting for place lowers each gap by a few points and leaves most of both. The same model puts the 2016 to 2024 permit gap at 28.0 (95% CI 25.3 to 30.7)28.0 percentage pointsEstimandDemocratic minus Republican gap from a weighted linear probability model with the interaction of region and community type, HC3 errors; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 25.3 to 30.7n8,969Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey points against 29.4 (95% CI 26.9 to 32.0)29.4 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 26.9 to 32.0n8,969Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey raw.

    The racial mix of the Democratic Party also changed: 84.2%84.2% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share who are White (GSS race 1)Interval95% CI 83.0% to 85.5%n4,054Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey of Democratic respondents were White in 1973 to 1980 and 64.7%64.7% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share who are White (GSS race 1)Interval95% CI 62.9% to 66.4%n5,174Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey in 2016 to 2024. Among White respondents alone, the Democratic share with a gun in the home fell from 49.4%49.4% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 47.6% to 51.3%n3,413Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationWhite Democratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 (GSS surveys of 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey to 28.1%28.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 26.1% to 30.1%n3,426Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationWhite Democratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey, a change of −21.3 (95% CI −24.1 to −18.6)−21.3 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus early-period share (two separate samples); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI −24.1 to −18.6n6,839Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationWhite Democratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points, and the Republican share changed by +1.7 (95% CI −1.6 to 5.0)+1.7 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus early-period share (two separate samples); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI −1.6 to 5.0n5,359Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationWhite Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points, so the Democratic fall holds among White respondents. Chapter 15.1, Party and place compares party gaps on the CES gun item with gaps between counties of different partisan lean.

    The size of the gap depends on the policy item

    Figure 6 plots five CES items. Background checks draw support from both parties: 95.9%95.9% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the CES item on background checks for all sales (guns_bgchecks), answer supportInterval95% CI 95.4% to 96.3%n12,445Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2021SourceCooperative Election Study of Democrats and 81.5%81.5% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the CES item on background checks for all sales (guns_bgchecks), answer supportInterval95% CI 80.5% to 82.6%n8,139Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2021SourceCooperative Election Study of Republicans in 2021, a gap of 14.3 (95% CI 13.2 to 15.5)14.3 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic minus Republican share; the CES item on background checks for all sales (guns_bgchecks), answer supportInterval95% CI 13.2 to 15.5n20,584Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2021SourceCooperative Election Study points that is smaller than the gap of 17.2 (95% CI 15.5 to 18.9)17.2 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic minus Republican share; the CES item on background checks for all sales (guns_bgchecks), answer supportInterval95% CI 15.5 to 18.9n12,775Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2013SourceCooperative Election Study points in 2013. The gap on banning assault rifles grew from 42.1 (95% CI 39.9 to 44.3)42.1 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic minus Republican share; the CES item on banning assault rifles (guns_assaultban), answer supportInterval95% CI 39.9 to 44.3n12,687Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2013SourceCooperative Election Study points in 2013 to 55.8 (95% CI 54.3 to 57.3)55.8 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic minus Republican share; the CES item on banning assault rifles (guns_assaultban), answer supportInterval95% CI 54.3 to 57.3n20,584Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2021SourceCooperative Election Study in 2021, and the Republican share in support fell by 10.5 (95% CI 8.3 to 12.7)10.5 percentage pointsEstimandfall in the weighted share, first year minus last year (two separate samples); the CES item on banning assault rifles (guns_assaultban), answer supportInterval95% CI 8.3 to 12.7n13,380Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2013 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study points while the Democratic share changed by +3.2 (95% CI 1.7 to 4.7)+3.2 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, last year asked minus first year asked (two separate samples); the CES item on banning assault rifles (guns_assaultban), answer supportInterval95% CI 1.7 to 4.7n19,891Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2013 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study points. The items that favor the gun side moved on the Democratic side. On easier concealed-carry permits the gap grew from 36.4 (95% CI 34.1 to 38.7)36.4 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican minus Democratic share; the CES item on easier concealed-carry permits (guns_permits), answer supportInterval95% CI 34.1 to 38.7n12,727Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2013SourceCooperative Election Study to 44.1 (95% CI 42.6 to 45.7)44.1 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican minus Democratic share; the CES item on easier concealed-carry permits (guns_permits), answer supportInterval95% CI 42.6 to 45.7n20,584Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2021SourceCooperative Election Study points, with a Democratic change of −6.2 (95% CI −7.8 to −4.5)−6.2 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, last year asked minus first year asked (two separate samples); the CES item on easier concealed-carry permits (guns_permits), answer supportInterval95% CI −7.8 to −4.5n19,925Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2013 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study points and a Republican change of +1.6 (95% CI −0.7 to 3.8)+1.6 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, last year asked minus first year asked (two separate samples); the CES item on easier concealed-carry permits (guns_permits), answer supportInterval95% CI −0.7 to 3.8n13,386Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2013 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study points. On prohibiting the publication of owners' names the gap grew from 22.6 (95% CI 20.2 to 24.9)22.6 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican minus Democratic share; the CES item on prohibiting publication of gun owners' names (guns_names), answer supportInterval95% CI 20.2 to 24.9n12,727Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2013SourceCooperative Election Study points in 2013 to 30.8 (95% CI 29.6 to 31.9)30.8 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican minus Democratic share; the CES item on prohibiting publication of gun owners' names (guns_names), answer supportInterval95% CI 29.6 to 31.9n49,758Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2020SourceCooperative Election Study in 2020, with a Democratic change of −9.4 (95% CI −11.3 to −7.6)−9.4 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, last year asked minus first year asked (two separate samples); the CES item on prohibiting publication of gun owners' names (guns_names), answer supportInterval95% CI −11.3 to −7.6n36,795Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2013 to 2020SourceCooperative Election Study points and a Republican change of −1.2 (95% CI −3.1 to 0.6)−1.2 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, last year asked minus first year asked (two separate samples); the CES item on prohibiting publication of gun owners' names (guns_names), answer supportInterval95% CI −3.1 to 0.6n25,690Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2013 to 2020SourceCooperative Election Study points.

    Figure 6

    In the CES the party gap grew on assault rifles, concealed carry and owners' names and did not grow on background checks

    Share supporting each CES gun policy item, by party identification including leaners, 2010 to 2021; 95% intervals from an opt-in panel

    • Democrats
    • Independents
    • Republicans
    Laws on gun sales more strict (2010, 2012)Support background checks for all salesSupport banning assault riflesSupport easier concealed-carry permitsSupport prohibiting publication of owners' names
    Show data
    Data for In the CES the party gap grew on assault rifles, concealed carry and owners' names and did not grow on background checks
    ItemGroupYearShare (%)LowerUpperRespondents
    Laws on gun sales more strict (2010, 2012)Democrats201063.262.264.124,381
    Laws on gun sales more strict (2010, 2012)Democrats201268.267.369.125,256
    Laws on gun sales more strict (2010, 2012)Independents201034.632.736.45,972
    Laws on gun sales more strict (2010, 2012)Independents201237.836.039.56,192
    Laws on gun sales more strict (2010, 2012)Republicans201018.017.218.823,431
    Laws on gun sales more strict (2010, 2012)Republicans201220.719.821.520,529
    Support background checks for all salesDemocrats201394.994.295.67,499
    Support background checks for all salesDemocrats201495.394.995.725,676
    Support background checks for all salesDemocrats201595.294.595.96,645
    Support background checks for all salesDemocrats201696.596.296.831,066
    Support background checks for all salesDemocrats201796.195.596.78,581
    Support background checks for all salesDemocrats201896.596.296.827,516
    Support background checks for all salesDemocrats201995.995.496.58,292
    Support background checks for all salesDemocrats202195.995.496.312,445
    Support background checks for all salesIndependents201382.080.084.02,931
    Support background checks for all salesIndependents201482.581.283.88,641
    Support background checks for all salesIndependents201582.780.585.02,186
    Support background checks for all salesIndependents201685.484.586.410,440
    Support background checks for all salesIndependents201786.284.488.13,189
    Support background checks for all salesIndependents201887.186.088.38,479
    Support background checks for all salesIndependents201980.878.683.02,666
    Support background checks for all salesIndependents202183.481.984.94,352
    Support background checks for all salesRepublicans201377.776.179.35,276
    Support background checks for all salesRepublicans201478.978.179.818,937
    Support background checks for all salesRepublicans201578.276.679.74,857
    Support background checks for all salesRepublicans201682.381.683.020,762
    Support background checks for all salesRepublicans201785.684.486.95,772
    Support background checks for all salesRepublicans201882.982.283.621,604
    Support background checks for all salesRepublicans201975.273.976.56,468
    Support background checks for all salesRepublicans202181.580.582.68,139
    Support banning assault riflesDemocrats201382.781.583.97,446
    Support banning assault riflesDemocrats201481.480.782.125,548
    Support banning assault riflesDemocrats201582.581.283.76,642
    Support banning assault riflesDemocrats201683.783.184.330,958
    Support banning assault riflesDemocrats201786.985.988.08,577
    Support banning assault riflesDemocrats201886.285.686.827,466
    Support banning assault riflesDemocrats201986.185.187.18,285
    Support banning assault riflesDemocrats202085.584.986.129,347
    Support banning assault riflesDemocrats202185.985.186.812,445
    Support banning assault riflesIndependents201354.151.556.82,908
    Support banning assault riflesIndependents201452.650.954.38,604
    Support banning assault riflesIndependents201554.451.457.42,180
    Support banning assault riflesIndependents201654.352.955.610,417
    Support banning assault riflesIndependents201761.058.463.63,190
    Support banning assault riflesIndependents201857.255.458.98,452
    Support banning assault riflesIndependents201952.749.955.52,662
    Support banning assault riflesIndependents202053.451.855.18,858
    Support banning assault riflesIndependents202149.647.651.64,352
    Support banning assault riflesRepublicans201340.638.742.45,241
    Support banning assault riflesRepublicans201439.938.941.018,880
    Support banning assault riflesRepublicans201537.836.039.64,848
    Support banning assault riflesRepublicans201641.941.042.820,675
    Support banning assault riflesRepublicans201750.048.251.85,772
    Support banning assault riflesRepublicans201839.738.840.721,541
    Support banning assault riflesRepublicans201934.733.236.16,464
    Support banning assault riflesRepublicans202033.933.034.720,412
    Support banning assault riflesRepublicans202130.128.931.38,139
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsDemocrats201323.522.124.97,480
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsDemocrats201423.022.223.825,617
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsDemocrats201522.421.023.86,637
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsDemocrats201622.121.422.830,966
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsDemocrats201719.217.920.48,578
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsDemocrats201816.215.516.827,473
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsDemocrats201918.116.919.28,291
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsDemocrats202018.217.518.829,346
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsDemocrats202117.316.418.212,445
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsIndependents201346.143.548.72,913
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsIndependents201448.146.449.88,629
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsIndependents201547.944.950.92,183
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsIndependents201647.346.048.710,429
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsIndependents201744.742.147.33,191
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsIndependents201841.639.943.48,468
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsIndependents201944.041.246.82,665
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsIndependents202044.242.645.98,857
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsIndependents202144.742.646.74,352
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsRepublicans201359.958.061.85,247
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsRepublicans201461.660.662.718,902
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsRepublicans201563.161.364.94,852
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsRepublicans201661.360.462.120,723
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsRepublicans201763.561.765.25,774
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsRepublicans201859.758.860.621,538
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsRepublicans201964.663.266.16,469
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsRepublicans202063.262.464.120,413
    Support easier concealed-carry permitsRepublicans202161.560.262.88,139
    Support prohibiting publication of owners' namesDemocrats201350.749.152.37,449
    Support prohibiting publication of owners' namesDemocrats201448.347.449.325,573
    Support prohibiting publication of owners' namesDemocrats201549.147.450.86,621
    Support prohibiting publication of owners' namesDemocrats201649.048.249.830,906
    Support prohibiting publication of owners' namesDemocrats201742.040.543.68,580
    Support prohibiting publication of owners' namesDemocrats202041.340.442.129,346
    Support prohibiting publication of owners' namesIndependents201363.360.865.82,928
    Support prohibiting publication of owners' namesIndependents201464.262.665.88,624
    Support prohibiting publication of owners' namesIndependents201564.761.967.52,185
    Support prohibiting publication of owners' namesIndependents201666.064.767.310,427
    Support prohibiting publication of owners' namesIndependents201761.158.563.63,189
    Support prohibiting publication of owners' namesIndependents202058.556.860.18,859
    Support prohibiting publication of owners' namesRepublicans201373.371.674.95,278
    Support prohibiting publication of owners' namesRepublicans201471.570.572.418,960
    Support prohibiting publication of owners' namesRepublicans201572.771.174.44,862
    Support prohibiting publication of owners' namesRepublicans201673.172.373.920,774
    Support prohibiting publication of owners' namesRepublicans201771.069.372.65,773
    Support prohibiting publication of owners' namesRepublicans202072.071.272.920,412
    The Democratic and Republican lines are far apart on every item except background checks, where both are high; the gap on assault rifles grows from 42.1 points in 2013 to 55.8 in 2021. In every one of the 34 item-years the party expected to favor the item is higher, with an interval above zero. Bands are 95% confidence intervals that rest on a model.Note: Gaps are written so that they are positive when the party that favors the item is higher: Democratic minus Republican for background checks, assault rifles and stricter sale laws, Republican minus Democratic for concealed carry and owners' names.Note: The sale laws item (2010 and 2012) is a three-answer question and a different item from the 2013 to 2021 for or against items; the panels are not joined. A line breaks where an item was not asked.Note: The CES gun items are for or against each proposal in a list, with a stem that changes in 2016, 2019 and 2021 as the wording table shows. Each party cell needs at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100. The CES is an opt-in panel, so the intervals rest on a model.Source: Cooperative Election Study cumulative policy preferences, 2010-2021; weighted (single-wave weight), opt-in panel

    The cumulative CES file reverses the coding of one health care item in 2014. A check of every gun item in every year found no reversal: the party expected to favor each item is higher in all 3434 item-yearsEstimandcount of item-years with a party gapWeightsnone (count)PopulationCES gun itemsPeriod2010-2021SourceCooperative Election Study item-years, with an interval above zero. The wording and coding follow the guide to the cumulative file [5]. The CES stems change in 2016, 2019 and 2021, and the file has no gun item in 2022 to 2024.

    Nationscape interviewed adults every week from July 2019 [6], and Figure 7 pools the weeks through December 2020. In Nationscape 29.5%29.5% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share, weekly waves pooled; the Nationscape item: a household member owns a gunInterval95% CI 29.2% to 29.8%n206,052WeightsweightPopulationDemocrats (leaners included) who answered the itemPeriodJuly 2019 to December 2020SourceNationscape of Democrats and 51.5%51.5% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share, weekly waves pooled; the Nationscape item: a household member owns a gunInterval95% CI 51.1% to 51.8%n172,984WeightsweightPopulationRepublicans (leaners included) who answered the itemPeriodJuly 2019 to December 2020SourceNationscape of Republicans lived in a household with a gun, a gap of 22.0 (95% CI 21.5 to 22.5)22.0 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican minus Democratic share, weekly waves pooled; the Nationscape item: a household member owns a gunInterval95% CI 21.5 to 22.5n379,036WeightsweightPopulationDemocrats and Republicans (no leaners) who answered the itemPeriodJuly 2019 to December 2020SourceNationscape points. That is smaller than the 2016 to 2024 GSS gap and about equal to the ANES 2024 gap of 23.6 (95% CI 19.6 to 27.7)23.6 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share with one or more guns in the household (V241583)Interval95% CI 19.6 to 27.7n4,571Weightsw_pre (V240107a, pre-election)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the 2024 ANES household guns questionPeriod2024SourceANES 2024 Time Series points, where the shares were 28.6%28.6% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share with one or more guns in the household (V241583, asked before the election)Interval95% CI 26.0% to 31.2%n2,489Weightsw_pre (V240107a, pre-election)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the 2024 ANES household guns questionPeriod2024SourceANES 2024 Time Series and 52.2%52.2% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share with one or more guns in the household (V241583, asked before the election)Interval95% CI 49.1% to 55.3%n2,082Weightsw_pre (V240107a, pre-election)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the 2024 ANES household guns questionPeriod2024SourceANES 2024 Time Series. Background checks drew 95.0%95.0% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share, weekly waves pooled; the Nationscape item: background checks for all gun purchasesInterval95% CI 94.8% to 95.1%n202,676WeightsweightPopulationDemocrats (leaners included) who answered the itemPeriodJuly 2019 to December 2020SourceNationscape of Democrats and 89.2%89.2% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share, weekly waves pooled; the Nationscape item: background checks for all gun purchasesInterval95% CI 89.0% to 89.5%n169,429WeightsweightPopulationRepublicans (leaners included) who answered the itemPeriodJuly 2019 to December 2020SourceNationscape of Republicans, a gap of 5.8 (95% CI 5.5 to 6.1)5.8 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic minus Republican share, weekly waves pooled; the Nationscape item: background checks for all gun purchasesInterval95% CI 5.5 to 6.1n372,105WeightsweightPopulationDemocrats and Republicans (no leaners) who answered the itemPeriodJuly 2019 to December 2020SourceNationscape points. The gaps were 34.6 (95% CI 34.1 to 35.1)34.6 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic minus Republican share, weekly waves pooled; the Nationscape item: ban assault riflesInterval95% CI 34.1 to 35.1n343,886WeightsweightPopulationDemocrats and Republicans (no leaners) who answered the itemPeriodJuly 2019 to December 2020SourceNationscape on banning assault rifles, 35.5 (95% CI 34.4 to 36.6)35.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic minus Republican share, weekly waves pooled; the Nationscape item: controlling who owns guns matters more than the right to ownInterval95% CI 34.4 to 36.6n68,631WeightsweightPopulationDemocrats and Republicans (no leaners) who answered the itemPeriodJuly 2019 to December 2020SourceNationscape on putting control over ownership above the right to own, and 21.0 (95% CI 20.6 to 21.5)21.0 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic minus Republican share, weekly waves pooled; the Nationscape item: ban all gunsInterval95% CI 20.6 to 21.5n349,269WeightsweightPopulationDemocrats and Republicans (no leaners) who answered the itemPeriodJuly 2019 to December 2020SourceNationscape on banning all guns, which 32.8%32.8% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share, weekly waves pooled; the Nationscape item: ban all gunsInterval95% CI 32.5% to 33.2%n181,840WeightsweightPopulationDemocrats (leaners included) who answered the itemPeriodJuly 2019 to December 2020SourceNationscape of Democrats and 11.8%11.8% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share, weekly waves pooled; the Nationscape item: ban all gunsInterval95% CI 11.5% to 12.0%n167,429WeightsweightPopulationRepublicans (leaners included) who answered the itemPeriodJuly 2019 to December 2020SourceNationscape of Republicans favored. Between July to December 2019 and July to December 2020 no gap changed by more than 2.22.2 percentage pointsEstimandlargest absolute change in the party gap across the seven Nationscape items, July to December 2020 minus July to December 2019WeightsweightPopulationDemocrats and Republicans (no leaners) who answered the itemPeriodJuly to December 2019 to July to December 2020SourceNationscape points. Levels differ across surveys with the answers offered: the Republican share favoring background checks is 81.5%81.5% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the CES item on background checks for all sales (guns_bgchecks), answer supportInterval95% CI 80.5% to 82.6%n8,139Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2021SourceCooperative Election Study in the 2021 CES, 80.4%80.4% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the 2024 ANES item on background checks for gun purchases (V242326), answer favorInterval95% CI 77.9% to 82.8%n2,074Weightsw_post (V240107b, post-election); w_post_ftf and w_post_web for the mode viewsPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the 2024 ANES background checks itemPeriod2024SourceANES 2024 Time Series in the 2024 ANES, where neither favor nor oppose is an answer, and 89.2%89.2% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share, weekly waves pooled; the Nationscape item: background checks for all gun purchasesInterval95% CI 89.0% to 89.5%n169,429WeightsweightPopulationRepublicans (leaners included) who answered the itemPeriodJuly 2019 to December 2020SourceNationscape in Nationscape.

    Figure 7

    In Nationscape the parties differed on every gun item and differed least on background checks

    Share owning a gun in the household or supporting each gun policy, by party identification; leaners are in the parties and independents lean toward neither; July 2019 to December 2020 pooled; 95% intervals from an opt-in panel

    • Democrats
    • Independents
    • Republicans
    Show data
    Data for In Nationscape the parties differed on every gun item and differed least on background checks
    ItemGroupShare (%)LowerUpperRespondents
    A household member owns a gunDemocrats29.529.229.8206,052
    A household member owns a gunIndependents31.530.932.251,285
    A household member owns a gunRepublicans51.551.151.8172,984
    Background checks for all purchasesDemocrats95.094.895.1202,676
    Background checks for all purchasesIndependents92.291.892.647,888
    Background checks for all purchasesRepublicans89.289.089.5169,429
    Public registry of gun ownershipDemocrats83.883.384.355,877
    Public registry of gun ownershipIndependents68.767.470.112,023
    Public registry of gun ownershipRepublicans51.550.752.247,159
    Ban assault riflesDemocrats82.982.783.2188,159
    Ban assault riflesIndependents63.262.564.041,063
    Ban assault riflesRepublicans48.347.948.7155,727
    Limit magazines to 10 bulletsDemocrats79.979.680.3169,663
    Limit magazines to 10 bulletsIndependents59.458.560.236,583
    Limit magazines to 10 bulletsRepublicans46.345.946.7146,106
    Ban all gunsDemocrats32.832.533.2181,840
    Ban all gunsIndependents20.820.221.443,791
    Ban all gunsRepublicans11.811.512.0167,429
    Controlling who owns guns matters more than the right to ownDemocrats79.278.579.836,694
    Controlling who owns guns matters more than the right to ownIndependents59.257.560.98,418
    Controlling who owns guns matters more than the right to ownRepublicans43.742.844.531,937
    The Democratic and Republican dots are closest on background checks, where the Republican dot is at 89.2%, and farthest on the assault rifle, magazine and gun control items. The independent dot lies between the party dots on every policy item. Each dot is a weighted share with a 95% confidence interval that rests on a model.Note: Party is the three-category party question with the follow-up that Nationscape asks of independents in every week, so Democrats and Republicans include leaners and independents lean toward neither, as in the other surveys. Weeks after 28 December 2020 are left out.Note: The registry item was asked through mid-January 2021 and the control item from mid-September 2019, so the items cover different weeks. Each share rests on weekly waves pooled with the Nationscape weight.Source: Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape, July 2019 to December 2020; weighted (weight), opt-in panel

    The gaps are above zero within each interview mode

    The GSS moved from in-person interviews to the web: 87%87% share of interviewsEstimandshare of interviews by web (count)n3,912Weightsnone (interview count)PopulationGSS 2021 respondents who answered the gun in the home questionPeriod2021SourceGeneral Social Survey of the 2021 respondents who answered the household question were interviewed on the web, and the 2022 and 2024 surveys used both modes. The ANES added a web sample in 2012, and the 2020 study had no in-person interviews and no separate weights by mode [7]. Figure 8 splits the gaps by interview modeSurvey modeHow respondents were interviewed: in person, by phone, on paper or online. Mode can change answers, so a change in mode can look like a change in opinion.. Every gap is above zero in every mode, and web and in-person gaps differ by more than sampling error in one of 77 comparisonsEstimandcount of web minus in-person gap comparisons: GSS gun in the home 2022 and 2024, GSS police permit 2022 and 2024, ANES buying a gun 2012, 2016 and 2024Weightsnone (count)Populationweb and in-person gaps in the same yearPeriod2012-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey comparisons: the 2024 GSS permit gap, which is 34.2 (95% CI 26.2 to 42.3)34.2 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic minus Republican share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 26.2 to 42.3n837Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod2024, web interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey points on the web and 18.4 (95% CI 7.6 to 29.1)18.4 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic minus Republican share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 7.6 to 29.1n532Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod2024, in-person interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey in person, a difference of 15.9 (95% CI 2.4 to 29.3)15.9 percentage pointsEstimandweb gap minus in-person gap (two separate groups); the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 2.4 to 29.3n1,369Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS questionPeriod2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points.

    Figure 8

    Every party gap is above zero within each interview mode, and web and in-person gaps differ by more than sampling error only on the 2024 GSS permit item

    Party gap by interview mode for the GSS gun in the home and police permit items and the ANES buying a gun item; party identifiers including leaners; 95% intervals

    ANES: more difficult to buy (Democratic minus Republican)

    GSS: gun in the home (Republican minus Democratic)

    GSS: police permit (Democratic minus Republican)

    Party gap (percentage points)

    Show data
    Data for Every party gap is above zero within each interview mode, and web and in-person gaps differ by more than sampling error only on the 2024 GSS permit item
    ItemYear and modeGap (points)LowerUpperRespondents
    ANES: more difficult to buy (Democratic minus Republican)2012 in person35.029.141.01,805
    ANES: more difficult to buy (Democratic minus Republican)2012 web37.933.742.13,280
    ANES: more difficult to buy (Democratic minus Republican)2016 in person45.438.752.11,037
    ANES: more difficult to buy (Democratic minus Republican)2016 web42.238.046.32,620
    ANES: more difficult to buy (Democratic minus Republican)2024 in person49.341.057.6862
    ANES: more difficult to buy (Democratic minus Republican)2024 web51.145.556.81,581
    GSS: gun in the home (Republican minus Democratic)2018 in person27.319.934.61,074
    GSS: gun in the home (Republican minus Democratic)2021 web28.724.233.32,619
    GSS: gun in the home (Republican minus Democratic)2022 in person21.610.033.1739
    GSS: gun in the home (Republican minus Democratic)2022 web24.613.835.4742
    GSS: gun in the home (Republican minus Democratic)2024 in person25.914.437.3528
    GSS: gun in the home (Republican minus Democratic)2024 web34.125.243.1822
    GSS: police permit (Democratic minus Republican)2018 in person22.816.029.71,087
    GSS: police permit (Democratic minus Republican)2021 web35.431.139.72,661
    GSS: police permit (Democratic minus Republican)2022 in person30.820.241.4756
    GSS: police permit (Democratic minus Republican)2022 web34.324.544.0749
    GSS: police permit (Democratic minus Republican)2024 in person18.47.629.1532
    GSS: police permit (Democratic minus Republican)2024 web34.226.242.3837
    Every dot is to the right of zero, and in 7 web and in-person comparisons only the 2024 GSS permit gap differs by more than sampling error, by 15.9 points. Dots are estimates and lines are 95% confidence intervals. The 2021 GSS survey was mostly web and has no in-person row; the 2018 GSS row is the last survey before the move to the web.Note: GSS in-person and web rows are the respondents interviewed in each mode; the GSS 2022 and 2024 surveys mixed the two, and 2021 was mostly web. The 2020 ANES study has no separate weights by mode, so it has no row.Note: The 2024 ANES rows are the fresh in-person and fresh web samples of the 2024 Time Series with the post-election mode weights; the panel and paper respondents are in neither. A party cell needs at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100.Source: General Social Survey, 2018-2024, and ANES Cumulative Data File, 2012 and 2016, and ANES 2024 Time Series; weighted (weight_use; weight_ftf and weight_web; post-election mode weights V240101b and V240102b)

    The in-person GSS ownership gap was 27.3 (95% CI 19.9 to 34.6)27.3 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican minus Democratic share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 19.9 to 34.6n1,074Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2018, in-person interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey points in 2018 and 25.9 (95% CI 14.4 to 37.3)25.9 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican minus Democratic share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 14.4 to 37.3n528Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2024, in-person interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey in 2024, and the web gap was 28.7 (95% CI 24.2 to 33.3)28.7 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican minus Democratic share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 24.2 to 33.3n2,619Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2021, web interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey in 2021 and 34.1 (95% CI 25.2 to 43.1)34.1 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican minus Democratic share; the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 25.2 to 43.1n822Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2024, web interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey in 2024, so the ownership gap is present in each mode. The latest movement in the permit gap depends on mode more clearly. The mostly web survey of 2021 gives a permit gap of 35.4 (95% CI 31.1 to 39.7)35.4 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic minus Republican share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 31.1 to 39.7n2,661Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod2021, web interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey points against 22.8 (95% CI 16.0 to 29.7)22.8 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic minus Republican share; the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 16.0 to 29.7n1,087Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod2018, in-person interviewsSourceGeneral Social Survey among in-person respondents in 2018, a difference of 12.6 (95% CI 4.5 to 20.7)12.6 percentage pointsEstimand2021 web gap minus 2018 in-person gap (two separate samples in different modes); the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 4.5 to 20.7n3,748Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod2018 (in person) to 2021 (web)SourceGeneral Social Survey points that mixes mode and time. In person, neither the 2022 nor the 2024 permit gap differs from the 2018 gap by more than sampling error, so the rise from 2018 to 2021 is not matched by an in-person rise.

    The ANES gap on buying a gun was 45.4 (95% CI 38.7 to 52.1)45.4 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic minus Republican share; the ANES question on buying a gun (VCF9238), answer more difficultInterval95% CI 38.7 to 52.1n1,037Weightsweight_ftf (in-person mode weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2016, in-person interviewsSourceANES Cumulative Data File points in person and 42.2 (95% CI 38.0 to 46.3)42.2 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic minus Republican share; the ANES question on buying a gun (VCF9238), answer more difficultInterval95% CI 38.0 to 46.3n2,620Weightsweight_web (web mode weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2016, web interviewsSourceANES Cumulative Data File on the web in 2016. It rose by 9.9 (95% CI 5.4 to 14.4)9.9 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted Democratic minus Republican gap, 2020 minus 2016 (two separate samples); the ANES question on buying a gun (VCF9238), answer more difficultInterval95% CI 5.4 to 14.4n10,148Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2016 to 2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File points from 2016 to 2020, the year of the mode change, and the 2020 study has no weights by mode, so the ANES cannot separate that rise from the change of mode.

    Democrats changed more on owning guns and Republicans on regulating sales

    Each survey shows its change mostly on one side of the issue (Figure 9). On the household gun item the Democratic share changed by −22.0 (95% CI −24.4 to −19.7)−22.0 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus early-period share (two separate samples); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI −24.4 to −19.7n9,265Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points and the Republican share by −1.2 (95% CI −4.4 to 2.0)−1.2 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus early-period share (two separate samples); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI −4.4 to 2.0n5,842Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey. On concealed carry the Democratic share changed by −6.2 (95% CI −7.8 to −4.5)−6.2 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, last year asked minus first year asked (two separate samples); the CES item on easier concealed-carry permits (guns_permits), answer supportInterval95% CI −7.8 to −4.5n19,925Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2013 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study points against +1.6 (95% CI −0.7 to 3.8)+1.6 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, last year asked minus first year asked (two separate samples); the CES item on easier concealed-carry permits (guns_permits), answer supportInterval95% CI −0.7 to 3.8n13,386Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2013 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study for Republicans, and on owners' names by −9.4 (95% CI −11.3 to −7.6)−9.4 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, last year asked minus first year asked (two separate samples); the CES item on prohibiting publication of gun owners' names (guns_names), answer supportInterval95% CI −11.3 to −7.6n36,795Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2013 to 2020SourceCooperative Election Study against −1.2 (95% CI −3.1 to 0.6)−1.2 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, last year asked minus first year asked (two separate samples); the CES item on prohibiting publication of gun owners' names (guns_names), answer supportInterval95% CI −3.1 to 0.6n25,690Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2013 to 2020SourceCooperative Election Study. The Democratic change is larger in size than the Republican change on these items, by 20.8 (95% CI 16.8 to 24.8)20.8 percentage pointsEstimandsize of the Democratic change minus the size of the Republican change (each change is a later minus earlier weighted share from two separate samples; sizes are absolute values); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 16.8 to 24.8n15,107Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the itemPeriod1973-80 to 2016-24SourceGeneral Social Survey, 4.6 (95% CI 1.8 to 7.4)4.6 percentage pointsEstimandsize of the Democratic change minus the size of the Republican change (each change is a later minus earlier weighted share from two separate samples; sizes are absolute values); the CES item on easier concealed-carry permits (guns_permits), answer supportInterval95% CI 1.8 to 7.4n33,311Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the itemPeriod2013 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study and 8.2 (95% CI 5.6 to 10.8)8.2 percentage pointsEstimandsize of the Democratic change minus the size of the Republican change (each change is a later minus earlier weighted share from two separate samples; sizes are absolute values); the CES item on prohibiting publication of gun owners' names (guns_names), answer supportInterval95% CI 5.6 to 10.8n62,485Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the itemPeriod2013 to 2020SourceCooperative Election Study points. On the items about regulating sales the larger change is Republican: the GSS permit share changed by −17.5 (95% CI −20.4 to −14.5)−17.5 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus early-period share (two separate samples); the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI −20.4 to −14.5n6,418Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points among Republicans against +7.8 (95% CI 5.9 to 9.8)+7.8 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus early-period share (two separate samples); the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 5.9 to 9.8n10,024Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS police permit questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey among Democrats, the ANES share saying buying a gun should be more difficult by −22.2 (95% CI −26.7 to −17.6)−22.2 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, 2020 minus 2000 (two separate samples); the ANES question on buying a gun (VCF9238), answer more difficultInterval95% CI −26.7 to −17.6n3,725Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2000 to 2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File against +6.4 (95% CI 2.5 to 10.4)+6.4 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, 2020 minus 2000 (two separate samples); the ANES question on buying a gun (VCF9238), answer more difficultInterval95% CI 2.5 to 10.4n4,325Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2000 to 2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File, and the CES assault rifle share by −10.5 (95% CI −12.7 to −8.3)−10.5 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, last year asked minus first year asked (two separate samples); the CES item on banning assault rifles (guns_assaultban), answer supportInterval95% CI −12.7 to −8.3n13,380Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2013 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study against +3.2 (95% CI 1.7 to 4.7)+3.2 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, last year asked minus first year asked (two separate samples); the CES item on banning assault rifles (guns_assaultban), answer supportInterval95% CI 1.7 to 4.7n19,891Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2013 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study. The Republican change is larger in size by 9.6 (95% CI 6.1 to 13.1)9.6 percentage pointsEstimandsize of the size of the Republican change minus the size of the Democratic change (each change is a later minus earlier weighted share from two separate samples; sizes are absolute values); the GSS question on a police permit to buy a gun (gunlaw), answer favorInterval95% CI 6.1 to 13.1n16,442Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the itemPeriod1973-80 to 2016-24SourceGeneral Social Survey, 15.7 (95% CI 9.7 to 21.8)15.7 percentage pointsEstimandsize of the size of the Republican change minus the size of the Democratic change (each change is a later minus earlier weighted share from two separate samples; sizes are absolute values); the ANES question on buying a gun (VCF9238), answer more difficultInterval95% CI 9.7 to 21.8n8,050Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the itemPeriod2000 to 2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File and 7.2 (95% CI 4.6 to 9.9)7.2 percentage pointsEstimandsize of the size of the Republican change minus the size of the Democratic change (each change is a later minus earlier weighted share from two separate samples; sizes are absolute values); the CES item on banning assault rifles (guns_assaultban), answer supportInterval95% CI 4.6 to 9.9n33,271Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the itemPeriod2013 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study points. Independents moved with the party that moved: their household ownership share fell by 21.1 (95% CI 16.7 to 25.5)21.1 percentage pointsEstimandfall in the weighted share, early period minus late period (two separate samples); the GSS gun in the home question (owngun), answer yesInterval95% CI 16.7 to 25.5n3,372Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationindependents who lean toward neither party who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1973 to 1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points, like Democrats, and their ANES share saying buying a gun should be more difficult changed by −15.5 (95% CI −24.1 to −6.8)−15.5 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, 2020 minus 2000 (two separate samples); the ANES question on buying a gun (VCF9238), answer more difficultInterval95% CI −24.1 to −6.8n1,083Weightsweight (VCF0009z)Populationindependents who lean toward neither party who answered the ANES question on buying a gunPeriod2000 to 2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, closer to the Republican change.

    Figure 9

    Democrats changed more on owning and carrying guns and Republicans changed more on regulating sales, except for personal ownership and background checks

    Change in the share of Democrats and of Republicans, including leaners, giving the answer named, from the first to the last period of each survey; percentage points; 95% intervals

    • Democrats
    • Republicans
    Show data
    Data for Democrats changed more on owning and carrying guns and Republicans changed more on regulating sales, except for personal ownership and background checks
    Item and periodGroupChange (points)LowerUpperRespondents
    GSS: Household has a gun (1973-80 to 2016-24)Democrats−22.0−24.4−19.79,265
    GSS: Household has a gun (1973-80 to 2016-24)Republicans−1.2−4.42.05,842
    GSS: Respondent owns a gun (1980 to 2016-24)Democrats−13.8−18.1−9.55,942
    GSS: Respondent owns a gun (1980 to 2016-24)Republicans7.11.512.84,047
    GSS: Favor a police permit (1973-80 to 2016-24)Democrats7.85.99.810,024
    GSS: Favor a police permit (1973-80 to 2016-24)Republicans−17.5−20.4−14.66,418
    ANES: Make buying a gun more difficult (2000 to 2020)Democrats6.42.510.44,325
    ANES: Make buying a gun more difficult (2000 to 2020)Republicans−22.2−26.7−17.63,725
    CES: Background checks for all sales (2013 to 2021)Democrats1.00.11.819,944
    CES: Background checks for all sales (2013 to 2021)Republicans3.81.95.713,415
    CES: Ban assault rifles (2013 to 2021)Democrats3.21.74.719,891
    CES: Ban assault rifles (2013 to 2021)Republicans−10.5−12.7−8.313,380
    CES: Easier concealed-carry permits (2013 to 2021)Democrats−6.2−7.8−4.519,925
    CES: Easier concealed-carry permits (2013 to 2021)Republicans1.6−0.73.813,386
    CES: Prohibit publishing owners' names (2013 to 2020)Democrats−9.4−11.3−7.636,795
    CES: Prohibit publishing owners' names (2013 to 2020)Republicans−1.2−3.10.625,690
    On the household gun, concealed-carry and owners' names items the Democratic dot is farther from zero than the Republican dot, and on the permit, assault rifle and buying a gun items the Republican dot is farther from zero, in each case by an amount whose interval is above zero. Personal ownership and background checks do not follow the pattern: the sizes of the two personal ownership changes differ by an interval that includes zero, and the Republican background check change is positive. Each dot is the later share minus the earlier share with a 95% confidence interval. The CES intervals rest on a model.Note: Period comparisons: GSS 1973 to 1980 pooled against 2016 to 2024 pooled, except personal ownership, which starts in 1980. ANES 2000 against 2020. CES first against last year each item was asked.Note: The change is in the share giving the answer named in each row, as the wording table lists. A negative value means the share fell.Source: General Social Survey, 1973-2024; ANES Cumulative Data File, 2000-2020; CES cumulative policy preferences, 2013-2021; weighted (weight_use; VCF0009z; single-wave weight)

    Personal ownership and background checks do not follow the pattern. Personal ownership changed by −13.8 (95% CI −18.1 to −9.5)−13.8 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus 1980 share (two separate samples); the GSS personally owns a gun follow-up (rowngun, asked of respondents with a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owning), answer yesInterval95% CI −18.1 to −9.5n5,942Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points among Democrats and +7.1 (95% CI 1.5 to 12.8)+7.1 percentage pointsEstimandlate-period share minus 1980 share (two separate samples); the GSS personally owns a gun follow-up (rowngun, asked of respondents with a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owning), answer yesInterval95% CI 1.5 to 12.8n4,047Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod1980 to 2016 to 2024SourceGeneral Social Survey among Republicans, and the sizes of the two changes differ by 6.7 (95% CI −0.4 to 13.8)6.7 percentage pointsEstimandsize of the Democratic change minus the size of the Republican change (each change is a later minus earlier weighted share from two separate samples; sizes are absolute values); the GSS personally owns a gun follow-up (rowngun, asked of respondents with a gun in the home; no gun in the home counts as not owning), answer yesInterval95% CI −0.4 to 13.8n9,989Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the itemPeriod1980 to 2016-24SourceGeneral Social Survey points, an interval that includes zero. The CES background check share rose by +3.8 (95% CI 1.9 to 5.7)+3.8 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, last year asked minus first year asked (two separate samples); the CES item on background checks for all sales (guns_bgchecks), answer supportInterval95% CI 1.9 to 5.7n13,415Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2013 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study points among Republicans and +1.0 (95% CI 0.1 to 1.8)+1.0 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted share, last year asked minus first year asked (two separate samples); the CES item on background checks for all sales (guns_bgchecks), answer supportInterval95% CI 0.1 to 1.8n19,944Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2013 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study among Democrats, so the Republican change runs the opposite way to the Republican falls on the other items about regulating sales.

    What these data cannot show

    Each survey draws a new sample, so a change in a party's share can come from people changing their view, changing their party or being replaced by new adults, and these data cannot separate the three. A Democratic fall in gun ownership could be Democrats who gave up a gun, gun owners who left the party, or younger Democrats who never owned one. The ownership results are not evidence that ownership changed party loyalty or that party loyalty changed ownership, which Joslyn and coauthors study with vote choice [3]. The chapter has no birth cohort breakdown and does not date when any individual changed.

    The ownership measures are reports. One respondent answers for the home, so the household share depends on who answers, and Smith, Laken and Son show that husbands and wives report differently [4]. Refusals are about 5.4%5.4% percent of respondents who were asked the household questionEstimandweighted share who refused or skipped the question (owngun refused, or missing with rowngun refused)Interval95% CI 4.4% to 6.4%n3,806Weightsweight_use, rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are pooledPopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who were asked the GSS gun in the home questionPeriod2016 to 2024 (GSS surveys of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, pooled)SourceGeneral Social Survey of Republican respondents in 2016 to 2024, and the bounds treat them as all owners or none, which leaves the Republican change in household ownership uncertain. The items count guns in the home or owned, not how many guns, what kind, whether they are carried or how they are stored. The policy items each name one proposal, so the chapter says nothing about other debates such as laws on carrying a gun without a permit or on removing guns from people judged to be dangerous, and it has no measure of how strongly respondents hold a view, which was the question in the study by Schuman and Presser [2].

    Wording limits every comparison across surveys. The CES items are for or against a proposal in a list, the ANES 2024 items offer a middle answer, and the Nationscape items offer not sure, so the levels differ by survey even where the gaps agree. The ANES 2024 buying a gun point comes from the separate Time Series file, and the GSS and ANES samples after 2020 mix or change interview mode, which affects the latest permit result, the Republican personal ownership rise and the 2020 ANES step. The GSS intervals treat respondents as drawn one by one; the design-based check above changes the pooled gaps little. The CES and Nationscape are opt-in panels, and the gun items in the CES end in 2021. Place is the respondent's own community type and census region, which are not the county and say nothing about rural counties as a whole. The chapter has no result on firearm deaths, which Chapter 13.2, Firearm deaths and the vote (planned) is planned to take up.

    Data sources

    • General Social SurveyRaw file 1972-2024: gun in the home (owngun), personally owns (rowngun), police permit (gunlaw), census region, community type (xnorcsiz), race, strata and primary sampling units (vstrat and vpsu); interview mode from the raw fileYears: 1972-2024 (35 study years) · Weights: weight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before) · License: See the provider's terms of use.
    • ANES Cumulative Data FileCumulative Data File 1948-2024, the question on buying a gun (VCF9238) in the six studies from 2000 to 2020; mode weights for 2012 and 2016Years: 1948-2024 (33 study years; even years only after 2004; no 2006, 2010 or 2014 study) · Weights: weight (VCF0009z); weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode split · License: Free download after accepting the ANES terms of use; cite the release.
    • ANES 2024 Time Series2024 Time Series: buying a gun (V242325), background checks (V242326), assault-style rifles (V242329) and guns in the household (V241583)Years: 2024 (pre-election and post-election interviews) · Weights: V240107b (post-election); V240107a for the household item; V240101b and V240102b for the mode views · License: Free download after accepting the ANES terms of use; cite the release.
    • Cooperative Election StudyCumulative CES policy items 2010-2021: sale laws (guns_scale, 2010 and 2012), background checks, assault rifles, concealed carry and owners' names (2013-2021)Years: 2006-2024 (every year; self-reported turnout is available in the 10 even years) · Weights: weight (single-wave weight) · License: See the provider's terms of use.
    • NationscapeWeekly waves July 2019 to December 2020: household gun and six gun policy items, party with the follow-up question on leanersYears: 2019-07-18 to 2021-04-15 (85 weekly waves) · Weights: weight · License: Free after registration and acceptance of the Voter Study Group terms; also on Harvard Dataverse.

    All data sources

    Methods

    Sample. GSS respondents (raw file, weight_use) who answered the gun in the home question (owngun, yes or no; refused is missing): 47,521 respondents in 30 surveys from 1973 to 2024; the police permit question (gunlaw, favor or oppose): 50,498 respondents in 32 surveys from 1972 to 2024; the personally owns follow-up (rowngun, asked of respondents with a gun in the home from 1980): 41,426 respondents in 26 surveys. ANES Cumulative Data File respondents who answered the question on buying a gun (VCF9238): 22,800 respondents in 6 studies (2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020); ANES 2024 Time Series respondents with a post-election weight: 4,964. CES respondents who answered at least one of five gun items between 2010 and 2021: 443,846. Nationscape respondents who answered at least one of seven gun items in the weeks from July 2019 to 28 December 2020: 476,723. Party and estimand. Democrats and Republicans include leaners (ANES and CES seven-point party identification 1 to 3 and 5 to 7; GSS partyid 0 to 2 and 4 to 6); independents are those who lean toward neither party (ANES and CES 4, GSS 3). Nationscape asks the three-category party question and, of every independent in every week, whether the respondent is closer to the Democratic Party, the Republican Party or neither, so its Democrats and Republicans include leaners and its independents answered neither; independents without a lean answer and respondents who chose something else have no party. Each outcome is the share giving one answer, as the wording table lists. The party gap is written so that it is positive when the party that favors that side is higher: Democratic minus Republican for favoring a police permit, making buying a gun more difficult, background checks, an assault rifle ban, a registry, limiting magazines, banning all guns, stricter sale laws and putting gun control above gun rights; Republican minus Democratic for a gun in the home, personal ownership, easier concealed-carry permits and prohibiting publication of owners' names. Coding. Coding is read from stored labels and never from a correlation with party: GSS owngun, rowngun 1 yes, 2 no, 3 refused; gunlaw 1 favor, 2 oppose; region 1 northeast to 4 west; ANES VCF9238 1 more difficult, 2 keep the rules about the same, 3 make it easier; ANES 2024 V242325 1 more difficult, 2 easier, 3 keep the rules (recoded to the cumulative-file order), V242326 and V242329 1 favor, 2 oppose, 3 neither; CES raw items 1 support, 2 oppose and the sale-law scale 1 more strict, 2 less strict, 3 kept as they are (the stored 0 or 1 items are checked against the raw items); Nationscape items are stored as 1 for agree or yes. Personal ownership is 1 if owngun is yes and rowngun is yes, 0 if owngun is no or rowngun is no, and missing otherwise. Community type groups the NORC size of place code xnorcsiz: central cities (codes 1 and 2), suburbs and unincorporated areas of metropolitan cities (3 to 6), small cities and towns (7 and 8) and rural areas (9 and 10). Weights. GSS weight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before); the GSS interview mode is joined from the raw file. In person means interviewed in person (GSS mode 1) or in any survey before 2004, which was in person by design; web means GSS mode 4. One weighting rule applies to every pooled period and subgroup: the weights of all respondents who answered the item and named a party are rescaled to average one within each survey year, and only then is a subgroup (region, community type, race, owner, interview mode) selected. ANES weight VCF0009z, with weight_ftf and weight_web in 2012 and 2016 (the 2020 study has no mode weights). ANES 2024 post-election items use V240107b, the household guns item uses the pre-election weight V240107a, and the mode views use V240101b and V240102b of the fresh in-person and fresh web samples. CES weight, the single-wave weight. Nationscape weight. Intervals. 95% intervals use the Kish effective sample size with a normal approximation, treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample and ignore the strata and clusters of the designs. A gap, a change between surveys or periods and a mode difference combine the two standard errors in quadrature, treating the estimates as independent. The place-adjusted gaps and changes are weighted linear probability models with HC3 errors. The CES and Nationscape are opt-in panels, so their intervals rest on a model. As a check on the simple-random-sample intervals, the pooled GSS gaps also have design-based intervals from a Taylor linearisation with the survey strata (vstrat) and primary sampling units (vpsu), which the GSS records from 1975 (the 1973 and 1974 respondents enter as single-respondent units): ownership gap 6.8 [3.9, 9.8] early and 27.7 [25.0, 30.3] late; permit gap 4.1 [1.9, 6.4] early and 29.4 [26.7, 32.2] late; the design-based standard error is 1.03 times the one used in the chapter for the early ownership gap and 0.97 times for the late one. Periods. The early period pools the GSS surveys of 1973 to 1980 that asked the item (1973, 1974, 1976, 1977 and 1980 for a gun in the home, and also 1975 for the police permit) and the late period pools those of 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024, after rescaling each year's weights to average one so that years count in proportion to their respondents. Personal ownership starts in 1980, so its early period is the 1980 survey alone. The CES and ANES changes compare the first and last year each item was asked. Suppression. A Democratic or Republican cell in a yearly series needs at least 150 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100; an independent or all-respondent cell, and every cell in a mode, place, period or item split, needs at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100. A gap needs both party cells to clear the floor. A Nationscape week needs at least 500 respondents on the item. Dating by reference. The dates use the rule of the chapter Sort dates by attitude: the Republican minus Democratic gap in the within-year z-score, scored so that a higher value is less regulation (a gun in the home, opposing a permit, the three-answer ANES item scored 1 more difficult to 3 easier), a threshold of 0.25 standard deviations, the point-estimate date as the first survey from which the estimate stays above it and the lower-bound date as the first survey from which the lower end of the 95% interval stays above it; the upper-bound date is the first survey from which the upper end stays above it. This chapter standardizes over the Democratic and Republican identifiers with the item in each survey; the code of that chapter standardizes over all respondents with the item, and the dates are the same either way (checked in the build). The difference between the ownership and permit z-gaps is tested survey by survey as a difference of independent estimates. Refusals. Refused answers to the household question (owngun refused, or owngun missing with rowngun refused) are left out. The bounds count every refusal as an owner or as a nonowner. Smith, Laken and Son's estimate that most refusers are owners covers the surveys of 1973 to 2012. CES. The per-year sign check recomputes the party gap in the expected direction for every item-year (all item-years, 34 in all) and finds it above zero in each, so the 2014 reversal of the ACA repeal item that the loader corrects has no counterpart in the gun items. Nationscape. Weekly waves from July 2019 to 28 December 2020 are pooled with the Nationscape weight; the half-year comparison uses July to December 2019 and July to December 2020. ANES 2024. The 2024 buying-a-gun point comes from the 2024 Time Series because the cumulative file lacks the item for 2024; it is weighted with the post-election weight and plotted with the cumulative-file points.

    References

    1. Kish, Leslie (1965). Survey Sampling. John Wiley and Sons.
    2. Schuman, Howard; Presser, Stanley (1977). Attitude Measurement and the Gun Control Paradox. Public Opinion Quarterly 41(4): 427-438. doi:10.1086/268405
    3. Joslyn, Mark R.; Haider-Markel, Donald P.; Baggs, Michael; Bilbo, Andrew (2017). Emerging Political Identities? Gun Ownership and Voting in Presidential Elections. Social Science Quarterly 98(2): 382-396. doi:10.1111/ssqu.12421
    4. Smith, Tom W.; Laken, Faith; Son, Jaesok (2014). Gun Ownership in the United States: Measurement Issues and Trends. GSS Methodological Report No. 123, NORC at the University of Chicago (revised October 2015). gss.norc.org/Documents/reports/methodological-reports/MR123%20Gun%20Ownership.pdf
    5. Dagonel, Angelo (2023). Guide to the Cumulative CES Policy Preferences. Harvard Dataverse, Cumulative CES Policy Preferences, version 3 (guide last updated 2023-01-18). doi:10.7910/DVN/OSXDQO
    6. Tausanovitch, Chris; Vavreck, Lynn (2023). Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape Project (data version 20211215). Harvard Dataverse, version 1. doi:10.7910/DVN/CQFP3Z
    7. American National Election Studies (2021). ANES 2020 Time Series Study Full Release: User Guide and Codebook. Stanford University and the University of Michigan. electionstudies.org/data-center/2020-time-series-study/

    How to cite

    @misc{singh2026guns,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Guns},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/guns},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 3 October 2026.}
}

    Same question at another grain

    These chapters take up the same axis with a different unit of analysis: individuals, places or countries.