Confidence in thirteen institutions

Among General Social Survey (GSS) respondents interviewed in person in 2022 and 2024, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to have a great deal of confidence in the people running the scientific community, and Republicans were more likely to have it in the people running the military. Measured as the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in pointsPercentage pointThe unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused., the gap was +20+19.8 percentage points (Democratic share minus Republican share; positive means Democrats are more confident)Estimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share with a great deal of confidence in the scientific community; in-person interviews only; normal interval on the Kish effective nInterval95% CI 11.8 to 27.8n1,259Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)Populationrespondents who identify with or lean toward a party (Democrats: partyid 0-2, Republicans: partyid 4-6)Period2022-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey for the scientific community and −14−13.7 percentage points (Democratic share minus Republican share; positive means Democrats are more confident)Estimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share with a great deal of confidence in military; in-person interviews only; normal interval on the Kish effective nInterval95% CI −22.1 to −5.4n1,302Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)Populationrespondents who identify with or lean toward a party (Democrats: partyid 0-2, Republicans: partyid 4-6)Period2022-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey for the military, and every gap in this chapter carries that sign. The survey asks about thirteen institutions. Their gaps point in both directions, and the executive branch gap changes sign with the party in the White House, so partisan confidence has to be read institution by institution.

The parties differ most on science and the Supreme Court

In 2022-2024, among respondents interviewed in person, Democrats are more confident than Republicans in science, medicine, education, the press, Congress and television. Republicans are more confident in the military, the Supreme Court and organized religion. Each of these gaps has an interval that excludes zero. The intervals for banks, major companies and organized labor include zero. The science gap of +19.8+19.8 percentage points (Democratic share minus Republican share; positive means Democrats are more confident)Estimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share with a great deal of confidence in the scientific community; in-person interviews only; normal interval on the Kish effective nInterval95% CI 11.8 to 27.8n1,259Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)Populationrespondents who identify with or lean toward a party (Democrats: partyid 0-2, Republicans: partyid 4-6)Period2022-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points and the Supreme Court gap of −16.2−16.2 percentage points (Democratic share minus Republican share; positive means Democrats are more confident)Estimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share with a great deal of confidence in supreme court; in-person interviews only; normal interval on the Kish effective nInterval95% CI −22.8 to −9.5n1,289Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)Populationrespondents who identify with or lean toward a party (Democrats: partyid 0-2, Republicans: partyid 4-6)Period2022-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey are the two largest, and they run in opposite directions.

Averaged over the thirteen institutions, ignoring direction, the gap was 4.84.8 percentage points (mean over institutions of the absolute Democratic-minus-Republican gap)Estimandmean over thirteen institutions of the absolute Democratic-minus-Republican gap in the share with a great deal of confidence; in-person interviews only; seeded respondent bootstrap interval (2,000 replicates)Interval95% CI 4.3 to 5.5n10,281Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)Populationrespondents who identify with or lean toward a party (Democrats: partyid 0-2, Republicans: partyid 4-6)Period1973-1980SourceGeneral Social Survey points in 1973-1980 and 9.49.4 percentage points (mean over institutions of the absolute Democratic-minus-Republican gap)Estimandmean over thirteen institutions of the absolute Democratic-minus-Republican gap; in-person interviews only; seeded respondent bootstrap interval (2,000 replicates)Interval95% CI 8.0 to 11.8n1,980Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)Populationrespondents who identify with or lean toward a party (Democrats: partyid 0-2, Republicans: partyid 4-6)Period2022-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points among in-person respondents in 2022-2024. Congress, television and the press have their gaps at low levels of confidence for both parties. A gap of a given size means more at a low level of confidence than at a high one.

Figure 1

In person in 2022-2024 the estimated party gap is 10 points or more for 7 of thirteen institutions

Share with a great deal of confidence in the people running each institution, percent, Democrats and Republicans including leaners, in-person interviews, 2022 and 2024 pooled, 95% intervals

• Republicans
• Democrats

Show data

Data for In person in 2022-2024 the estimated party gap is 10 points or more for 7 of thirteen institutions

Institution	Republican share (%)	Republican share, lower end	Republican share, upper end	Democratic share (%)	Democratic share, lower end	Democratic share, upper end	Gap (points)	Republican respondents	Democratic respondents
Scientific community	26.4	20.8	32.0	46.2	40.5	51.9	+19.8	581	678
Executive branch	5.1	2.3	7.8	19.7	15.2	24.2	+14.6	604	691
Education	15.4	10.8	19.9	29.7	24.6	34.8	+14.4	607	698
Medicine	28.5	22.9	34.2	39.0	33.5	44.4	+10.4	607	702
Press	2.6	0.6	4.5	10.4	6.9	13.8	+7.8	604	693
Television	4.9	2.2	7.6	12.0	8.3	15.6	+7.1	603	688
Congress	3.0	0.9	5.2	8.0	5.0	11.1	+5.0	602	694
Organized labor	17.9	12.1	23.7	18.7	13.5	23.9	+0.8	444	520
Banks and finance	19.4	14.4	24.4	19.7	15.3	24.2	+0.3	607	700
Major companies	16.6	11.8	21.3	15.7	11.6	19.9	−0.8	587	678
Organized religion	25.7	20.1	31.2	14.0	10.1	18.0	−11.6	585	679
Military	59.2	53.1	65.4	45.5	39.9	51.1	−13.7	609	693
Supreme Court	26.9	21.3	32.6	10.8	7.3	14.3	−16.2	596	693

How the GSS asks, and what changed after 2018

The GSS asks about "the people running" each institution and offers three answers: a great deal of confidence, only some, or hardly any [1]. This chapter tracks the share answering "a great deal" among respondents who identify with a party or lean toward one, with leanersPartisan leanerA respondent who first says they are independent but, when asked, says they lean toward one party. Most figures group leaners with the party they lean toward, and each chapter says which grouping it uses. counted with the party they lean toward. Every share is weightedSurvey weightsNumbers that scale each respondent so the sample matches the population on known traits such as age, race, education and region. A weighted average counts a respondent with a large weight for more than one with a small weight. so that the sample matches the population on known traits. The estimates rest on 41,79741,797 respondentsEstimandcount of respondentsWeightsnone (count)Populationrespondents who identify with or lean toward a party (Democrats: partyid 0-2, Republicans: partyid 4-6), with at least one confidence answerPeriod1973-2024, survey years with the confidence itemsSourceGeneral Social Survey respondents in survey years from 1973 to 2024.Intervals use the Kish effective sample sizeEffective sample sizeThe number of equally weighted respondents that would give the same precision as the weighted sample. It is smaller than the raw count when the weights vary a lot, and it sets how wide the confidence interval is. [2], treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample and do not follow the survey's strata and clusters. The qualification that matters most is survey modeSurvey modeHow respondents were interviewed: in person, by phone, on paper or online. Mode can change answers, so a change in mode can look like a change in opinion.. The GSS interviewed in person, with some telephone interviews, through 2018. It interviewed on the web only in 2021 and in both modes in 2022 and 2024, so a change in a gap after 2020 can come from the change in mode. The chapter therefore compares 2022-2024 with earlier periods using in-person interviews, and the 2022-2024 value pools two surveys that differ. In person, the average gap in 2024 alone was 7.3 (95% CI 5.6 to 10.7)7.3 percentage points (mean over institutions of the absolute Democratic-minus-Republican gap)Estimandmean over the institutions that pass the suppression floor of the absolute Democratic-minus-Republican gap; in-person interviews only; organized labor is left out because its party cells fall below the suppression floor, so twelve institutions; seeded respondent bootstrap interval (2,000 replicates)Interval95% CI 5.6 to 10.7n822Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)Populationrespondents who identify with or lean toward a party (Democrats: partyid 0-2, Republicans: partyid 4-6)Period2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points, an interval that overlaps the one for 2011-2018. The rise after 2018 rests on the in-person interviews of 2022 and on the web interviews, and the in-person interviews of 2024 do not establish it. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.

The executive branch gap changes sign with the president

The executive branch does not fit a pattern of a gap that opens and stays. Its gap is positive under Democratic presidents and negative under Republican presidents in 3333 survey yearsEstimandcount of years in which the sign of the Democratic-minus-Republican gap matches the party of the president (positive under a Democrat, negative under a Republican); all interview modesWeightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)Populationsurvey years with the executive branch itemPeriod1973-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey of 3333 survey yearsEstimandcount of survey yearsWeightsnone (count)Populationsurvey years with the executive branch itemPeriod1973-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey survey years. Its interval excludes zero on the side of the president's party in every survey year except 1980. The 2021 survey began interviewing in December 2020 [3], so 22.1%22.1% percent of respondents interviewed before the inaugurationEstimandshare interviewed from December 2020 to 19 January 2021, before the inauguration of 20 January 2021 (unweighted count)n1,793Weightsnone (count)Populationrespondents who identify with or lean toward a party and answered the executive branch item in 2021Period2021SourceGeneral Social Survey of its executive branch respondents answered before the inauguration of January 2021 and the rest after it. Among those interviewed before the inauguration the gap was −10.7−10.7 percentage points (Democratic share minus Republican share; positive means Democrats are more confident)Estimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share with a great deal of confidence in the executive branch; all interview modes; 2021 interviews interviewed before the inauguration on 20 January 2021Interval95% CI −19.1 to −2.3n396Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)Populationrespondents who identify with or lean toward a party (Democrats: partyid 0-2, Republicans: partyid 4-6), interviewed before the inauguration on 20 January 2021Period2021SourceGeneral Social Survey points, with Republicans the more confident party. Among the rest it was +16.0+16.0 percentage points (Democratic share minus Republican share; positive means Democrats are more confident)Estimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share with a great deal of confidence in the executive branch; all interview modes; 2021 interviews interviewed from 20 January 2021Interval95% CI 11.7 to 20.4n1,397Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)Populationrespondents who identify with or lean toward a party (Democrats: partyid 0-2, Republicans: partyid 4-6), interviewed from 20 January 2021Period2021SourceGeneral Social Survey, so each part has the sign of the president in office when it was interviewed. An analysis of the GSS through 2006 described this party-in-power pattern for the executive branch [1], and the surveys since then continue it. Planned, Trust in government (planned) asks whether trust in the federal government follows the same pattern in the American National Election Studies.

Figure 2

The executive branch gap has the sign of the president's party in 33 of 33 survey years

Democratic minus Republican share with a great deal of confidence in the executive branch of the federal government, percentage points, by survey year, 1973-2024, 95% intervals

All interview modesIn-person interviews onlyWeb interviews only

Democratic minus Republican gap (points)

Show data

Data for The executive branch gap has the sign of the president's party in 33 of 33 survey years

conf_high	conf_low	gap	mode	n	president_party	year
−17.10	−28.70	−22.90	all	1,260	Republican	1973
−4.40	−14	−9.20	all	1,233	Republican	1974
−3.90	−13.50	−8.70	all	1,240	Republican	1975
−3	−12.60	−7.80	all	1,218	Republican	1976
11.90	0.700	6.30	all	1,296	Democratic	1977
11.50	2.50	7	all	1,258	Democratic	1978
9.60	−0.100	4.70	all	1,175	Democratic	1980
−13.40	−25.20	−19.30	all	1,570	Republican	1982
−8.20	−18.30	−13.30	all	1,355	Republican	1983
−12.70	−26.70	−19.70	all	834	Republican	1984
−9.50	−20.20	−14.80	all	1,248	Republican	1986
−10.40	−20.80	−15.60	all	1,546	Republican	1987
−10.10	−21.90	−16	all	852	Republican	1988
−6.40	−19	−12.70	all	856	Republican	1989
−3.80	−17.70	−10.70	all	769	Republican	1990
−10.20	−23.50	−16.90	all	864	Republican	1991
13.60	4.20	8.90	all	877	Democratic	1993
12	5.30	8.70	all	1,671	Democratic	1994
11.30	4.30	7.80	all	1,524	Democratic	1996
12.50	4.80	8.60	all	1,500	Democratic	1998
11	2.50	6.70	all	1,431	Democratic	2000
−18.60	−34.30	−26.50	all	703	Republican	2002
−18.80	−33.20	−26	all	726	Republican	2004
−15.70	−25.10	−20.40	all	1,485	Republican	2006
−1.40	−10.70	−6	all	1,098	Republican	2008
21.60	10.60	16.10	all	1,080	Democratic	2010
16.80	6.80	11.80	all	1,027	Democratic	2012
18.20	10.90	14.50	all	1,266	Democratic	2014
15.30	7.40	11.40	all	1,533	Democratic	2016
−7.80	−18.40	−13.10	all	1,211	Republican	2018
14.40	7.10	10.70	all	2,017	Democratic	2021
19.70	10.90	15.30	all	1,713	Democratic	2022
20.90	11.70	16.30	all	1,538	Democratic	2024
−17.10	−28.70	−22.90	inperson	1,260	Republican	1973
−4.40	−14	−9.20	inperson	1,233	Republican	1974
−3.90	−13.50	−8.70	inperson	1,240	Republican	1975
−3	−12.60	−7.80	inperson	1,218	Republican	1976
11.90	0.700	6.30	inperson	1,296	Democratic	1977
11.50	2.50	7	inperson	1,258	Democratic	1978
9.60	−0.100	4.70	inperson	1,175	Democratic	1980
−13.40	−25.20	−19.30	inperson	1,570	Republican	1982
−8.20	−18.30	−13.30	inperson	1,355	Republican	1983
−12.70	−26.70	−19.70	inperson	834	Republican	1984
−9.50	−20.20	−14.80	inperson	1,248	Republican	1986
−10.40	−20.80	−15.60	inperson	1,546	Republican	1987
−10.10	−21.90	−16	inperson	852	Republican	1988
−6.40	−19	−12.70	inperson	856	Republican	1989
−3.80	−17.70	−10.70	inperson	769	Republican	1990
−10.20	−23.50	−16.90	inperson	864	Republican	1991
13.60	4.20	8.90	inperson	877	Democratic	1993
12	5.30	8.70	inperson	1,671	Democratic	1994
11.30	4.30	7.80	inperson	1,524	Democratic	1996
12.50	4.80	8.60	inperson	1,500	Democratic	1998
11	2.50	6.70	inperson	1,431	Democratic	2000
−18.60	−34.30	−26.50	inperson	703	Republican	2002
−18.20	−33.60	−25.90	inperson	579	Republican	2004
−16.40	−26.10	−21.20	inperson	1,387	Republican	2006
−0.700	−10.60	−5.70	inperson	974	Republican	2008
20.50	8.70	14.60	inperson	957	Democratic	2010
17.90	7.20	12.50	inperson	892	Democratic	2012
18	10.40	14.20	inperson	1,098	Democratic	2014
15	6.90	10.90	inperson	1,424	Democratic	2016
−8	−19	−13.50	inperson	1,094	Republican	2018
23.20	9.70	16.40	inperson	762	Democratic	2022
19.30	3.20	11.20	inperson	533	Democratic	2024
14.20	6.60	10.40	web	1,756	Democratic	2021
20.80	9	14.90	web	789	Democratic	2022
25	13	19	web	839	Democratic	2024

The gaps have lasted since different periods

Figure 3 shows the gap for each institution in six periods among in-person respondents. Television is the only gap that has lasted since the first period, 1973-1980. The Republican advantage on the military has lasted since 1981-1990. Organized religion has favored Republicans since 1991-2000, the press has favored Democrats since 2001-2010, and the education and science gaps have lasted since 2011-2018. The science gap changed sign along the way. Republicans were the more confident party in 1973-1980, by −5.5−5.5 percentage points (Democratic share minus Republican share; positive means Democrats are more confident)Estimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share with a great deal of confidence in the scientific community; in-person interviews only; normal interval on the Kish effective nInterval95% CI −8.1 to −2.9n8,073Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)Populationrespondents who identify with or lean toward a party (Democrats: partyid 0-2, Republicans: partyid 4-6)Period1973-1980SourceGeneral Social Survey points, the interval for 2001-2010 includes zero, and Democrats led in 2011-2018. An earlier GSS study found that self-identified conservatives went from the most to the least trusting of science between 1974 and 2010 [4], a reversal by ideology in the same direction. Planned, Trust in science (planned) takes up the science gap in depth.

The medicine and Supreme Court gaps have lasted only since 2022-2024. Medicine favored Republicans in 1973-1980 and in the next two periods, and the Court favored Republicans in 1981-1990 and 2001-2010. The Court gap therefore has the sign it had before, and the medicine gap has the opposite sign. In 1973-1980 and again in 2011-2018, Republicans were the more confident party about major companies and Democrats about organized labor. In person in 2022-2024 both gaps have an interval that includes zero, while web respondents still show both, so whether these two gaps have closed depends on the mode.

Figure 3

From 2011-2018 to 2022-2024 the Supreme Court gap moved from +1.1 to −16.2 points and the medicine gap from −1.8 to +10.4

Democratic share minus Republican share with a great deal of confidence, percentage points, by institution and period; positive means Democrats are more confident; in-person and all-mode views

In-person interviews onlyAll interview modes

−30.00.0+30.0RepublicanDemocratic

A grid of thirteen institutions by six periods for in-person interviews, shaded blue where Democrats are more confident and red where Republicans are, with the gap printed in each cell. Science, education, medicine and the press are blue in the last period and the science cell is the deepest blue. The military, organized religion and the Supreme Court are red in the last period, and the military is deepest red in 2001-2010. Banks, companies and labor are pale in the last period.

Institution	1973-1980	1981-1990	1991-2000	2001-2010	2011-2018	2022-2024
Scientific community	−5.5, interval −8.1 to −2.9, n = 8,073	−6.2, interval −8.8 to −3.6, n = 8,598	−2.7, interval −5.2 to −0.1, n = 7,532	+2.4, interval −1.1 to +5.9, n = 4,481	+9.7, interval +6.1 to +13.4, n = 4,412	+19.8, interval +11.8 to +27.8, n = 1,259
Executive branch	−4.5, interval −6.5 to −2.5, n = 8,680	−15.6, interval −17.7 to −13.6, n = 9,030	+5.1, interval +3.4 to +6.9, n = 7,867	−12.3, interval −15.1 to −9.5, n = 4,600	+5.9, interval +3.5 to +8.3, n = 4,508	+14.6, interval +9.4 to +19.9, n = 1,295
Education	+5.2, interval +2.8 to +7.6, n = 8,761	+0.5, interval −1.8 to +2.8, n = 9,115	+4.4, interval +2.3 to +6.6, n = 7,979	+1.3, interval −1.9 to +4.4, n = 4,653	+9.7, interval +6.6 to +12.7, n = 4,550	+14.4, interval +7.6 to +21.2, n = 1,305
Medicine	−3.6, interval −6.1 to −1.2, n = 8,793	−4.3, interval −6.8 to −1.8, n = 9,163	−4.1, interval −6.5 to −1.6, n = 7,987	−2.6, interval −6.0 to +0.8, n = 4,653	−1.8, interval −5.4 to +1.7, n = 4,554	+10.4, interval +2.5 to +18.3, n = 1,309
Press	+7.1, interval +5.0 to +9.2, n = 8,744	+5.3, interval +3.4 to +7.2, n = 9,060	+1.4, interval −0.1 to +3.0, n = 7,913	+5.6, interval +3.6 to +7.6, n = 4,642	+8.3, interval +6.3 to +10.2, n = 4,533	+7.8, interval +3.8 to +11.8, n = 1,297
Television	+4.0, interval +2.1 to +5.9, n = 8,750	+2.7, interval +1.0 to +4.4, n = 9,116	+2.4, interval +0.9 to +4.0, n = 7,963	+2.7, interval +0.8 to +4.7, n = 4,639	+3.3, interval +1.2 to +5.4, n = 4,519	+7.1, interval +2.5 to +11.6, n = 1,291
Congress	+3.7, interval +1.9 to +5.5, n = 8,671	+1.6, interval −0.2 to +3.5, n = 9,050	−0.1, interval −1.7 to +1.5, n = 7,866	+0.1, interval −2.3 to +2.4, n = 4,611	+0.8, interval −1.0 to +2.5, n = 4,511	+5.0, interval +1.3 to +8.8, n = 1,296
Organized labor	+6.9, interval +5.2 to +8.6, n = 8,486	+5.2, interval +3.7 to +6.7, n = 8,865	+5.1, interval +3.4 to +6.7, n = 7,513	+2.5, interval +0.1 to +4.9, n = 4,481	+4.6, interval +2.1 to +7.0, n = 4,405	+0.8, interval −7.0 to +8.6, n = 964
Banks and finance	−6.0, interval −8.9 to −3.1, n = 6,227	−2.2, interval −4.4 to 0.0, n = 9,081	−2.0, interval −4.1 to +0.1, n = 7,925	−6.1, interval −9.1 to −3.1, n = 4,629	−5.2, interval −7.9 to −2.6, n = 4,551	+0.3, interval −6.3 to +7.0, n = 1,307
Major companies	−12.2, interval −14.5 to −9.9, n = 8,493	−12.2, interval −14.5 to −9.9, n = 8,892	−12.2, interval −14.4 to −10.0, n = 7,783	−7.7, interval −10.4 to −5.0, n = 4,591	−11.4, interval −14.3 to −8.4, n = 4,494	−0.8, interval −7.1 to +5.5, n = 1,265
Organized religion	−3.2, interval −5.7 to −0.8, n = 8,534	−1.0, interval −3.3 to +1.3, n = 8,988	−4.1, interval −6.4 to −1.9, n = 7,850	−9.1, interval −12.1 to −6.1, n = 4,575	−9.5, interval −12.6 to −6.5, n = 4,490	−11.6, interval −18.4 to −4.8, n = 1,264
Military	−0.4, interval −2.8 to +2.0, n = 8,599	−4.2, interval −6.6 to −1.8, n = 9,036	−8.9, interval −11.4 to −6.5, n = 7,894	−22.3, interval −25.6 to −18.9, n = 4,635	−15.2, interval −18.7 to −11.7, n = 4,539	−13.7, interval −22.1 to −5.4, n = 1,302
Supreme Court	0.0, interval −2.4 to +2.4, n = 8,541	−5.3, interval −7.7 to −2.8, n = 8,942	−0.6, interval −2.9 to +1.8, n = 7,737	−6.5, interval −9.8 to −3.1, n = 4,571	+1.1, interval −2.2 to +4.4, n = 4,497	−16.2, interval −22.8 to −9.5, n = 1,289

Show data

Data for From 2011-2018 to 2022-2024 the Supreme Court gap moved from +1.1 to −16.2 points and the medicine gap from −1.8 to +10.4

conf_high	conf_low	era	gap	institution	mode	n
−2.90	−8.10	1973-1980	−5.50	Scientific community	all	8,073
−3.60	−8.80	1981-1990	−6.20	Scientific community	all	8,598
−0.100	−5.20	1991-2000	−2.70	Scientific community	all	7,532
5.40	−1.30	2001-2010	2.10	Scientific community	all	4,968
13.40	6.50	2011-2018	9.90	Scientific community	all	4,935
33.30	26.20	2021-2024	29.70	Scientific community	all	5,227
−2.50	−6.50	1973-1980	−4.50	Executive branch	all	8,680
−13.60	−17.70	1981-1990	−15.60	Executive branch	all	9,030
6.90	3.40	1991-2000	5.10	Executive branch	all	7,867
−9	−14.30	2001-2010	−11.60	Executive branch	all	5,092
8.50	3.90	2011-2018	6.20	Executive branch	all	5,037
16.40	11.60	2021-2024	14	Executive branch	all	5,268
7.60	2.80	1973-1980	5.20	Education	all	8,761
2.80	−1.80	1981-1990	0.500	Education	all	9,115
6.60	2.30	1991-2000	4.40	Education	all	7,979
4.10	−1.80	2001-2010	1.20	Education	all	5,153
13	7.30	2011-2018	10.10	Education	all	5,087
12.40	6.70	2021-2024	9.50	Education	all	5,277
−1.20	−6.10	1973-1980	−3.60	Medicine	all	8,793
−1.80	−6.80	1981-1990	−4.30	Medicine	all	9,163
−1.60	−6.50	1991-2000	−4.10	Medicine	all	7,987
0.300	−6.20	2001-2010	−2.90	Medicine	all	5,155
2.90	−3.80	2011-2018	−0.400	Medicine	all	5,088
17.40	10.30	2021-2024	13.80	Medicine	all	5,284
9.20	5	1973-1980	7.10	Press	all	8,744
7.20	3.40	1981-1990	5.30	Press	all	9,060
3	−0.100	1991-2000	1.40	Press	all	7,913
8.10	4.30	2001-2010	6.20	Press	all	5,140
10.30	6.60	2011-2018	8.50	Press	all	5,063
14.30	10.10	2021-2024	12.20	Press	all	5,266
5.90	2.10	1973-1980	4	Television	all	8,750
4.40	1	1981-1990	2.70	Television	all	9,116
4	0.900	1991-2000	2.40	Television	all	7,963
5	1.10	2001-2010	3.10	Television	all	5,137
5	1	2011-2018	3	Television	all	5,051
7.70	3.80	2021-2024	5.80	Television	all	5,269
5.50	1.90	1973-1980	3.70	Congress	all	8,671
3.50	−0.200	1981-1990	1.60	Congress	all	9,050
1.50	−1.70	1991-2000	−0.100	Congress	all	7,866
2.30	−2.20	2001-2010	0.100	Congress	all	5,107
2.40	−0.900	2011-2018	0.800	Congress	all	5,034
6	2.60	2021-2024	4.30	Congress	all	5,274
8.60	5.20	1973-1980	6.90	Organized labor	all	8,486
6.70	3.70	1981-1990	5.20	Organized labor	all	8,865
6.70	3.40	1991-2000	5.10	Organized labor	all	7,513
5.40	0.900	2001-2010	3.20	Organized labor	all	4,957
7.10	2.50	2011-2018	4.80	Organized labor	all	4,920
7.70	1.90	2021-2024	4.80	Organized labor	all	4,418
−3.10	−8.90	1973-1980	−6	Banks and finance	all	6,227
0	−4.40	1981-1990	−2.20	Banks and finance	all	9,081
0.100	−4.10	1991-2000	−2	Banks and finance	all	7,925
−3	−8.70	2001-2010	−5.90	Banks and finance	all	5,131
−3.10	−8.20	2011-2018	−5.70	Banks and finance	all	5,087
1.70	−4.30	2021-2024	−1.30	Banks and finance	all	5,291
−9.90	−14.50	1973-1980	−12.20	Major companies	all	8,493
−9.90	−14.50	1981-1990	−12.20	Major companies	all	8,892
−10	−14.40	1991-2000	−12.20	Major companies	all	7,783
−5.10	−10.30	2001-2010	−7.70	Major companies	all	5,081
−8.10	−13.80	2011-2018	−10.90	Major companies	all	5,026
−2.50	−8.20	2021-2024	−5.30	Major companies	all	5,240
−0.800	−5.70	1973-1980	−3.20	Organized religion	all	8,534
1.30	−3.30	1981-1990	−1	Organized religion	all	8,988
−1.90	−6.40	1991-2000	−4.10	Organized religion	all	7,850
−6.30	−12	2001-2010	−9.20	Organized religion	all	5,069
−6	−11.70	2011-2018	−8.80	Organized religion	all	5,012
−7.20	−13	2021-2024	−10.10	Organized religion	all	5,225
2	−2.80	1973-1980	−0.400	Military	all	8,599
−1.80	−6.60	1981-1990	−4.20	Military	all	9,036
−6.50	−11.40	1991-2000	−8.90	Military	all	7,894
−18.60	−25.10	2001-2010	−21.90	Military	all	5,132
−12.10	−18.70	2011-2018	−15.40	Military	all	5,069
−10.20	−17.80	2021-2024	−14	Military	all	5,278
2.40	−2.40	1973-1980	0	Supreme Court	all	8,541
−2.80	−7.70	1981-1990	−5.30	Supreme Court	all	8,942
1.80	−2.90	1991-2000	−0.600	Supreme Court	all	7,737
−3.80	−10.20	2001-2010	−7	Supreme Court	all	5,063
5.10	−1.20	2011-2018	2	Supreme Court	all	5,022
−9.70	−16.10	2021-2024	−12.90	Supreme Court	all	5,270
−2.90	−8.10	1973-1980	−5.50	Scientific community	inperson	8,073
−3.60	−8.80	1981-1990	−6.20	Scientific community	inperson	8,598
−0.100	−5.20	1991-2000	−2.70	Scientific community	inperson	7,532
5.90	−1.10	2001-2010	2.40	Scientific community	inperson	4,481
13.40	6.10	2011-2018	9.70	Scientific community	inperson	4,412
27.80	11.80	2022-2024	19.80	Scientific community	inperson	1,259
−2.50	−6.50	1973-1980	−4.50	Executive branch	inperson	8,680
−13.60	−17.70	1981-1990	−15.60	Executive branch	inperson	9,030
6.90	3.40	1991-2000	5.10	Executive branch	inperson	7,867
−9.50	−15.10	2001-2010	−12.30	Executive branch	inperson	4,600
8.30	3.50	2011-2018	5.90	Executive branch	inperson	4,508
19.90	9.40	2022-2024	14.60	Executive branch	inperson	1,295
7.60	2.80	1973-1980	5.20	Education	inperson	8,761
2.80	−1.80	1981-1990	0.500	Education	inperson	9,115
6.60	2.30	1991-2000	4.40	Education	inperson	7,979
4.40	−1.90	2001-2010	1.30	Education	inperson	4,653
12.70	6.60	2011-2018	9.70	Education	inperson	4,550
21.20	7.60	2022-2024	14.40	Education	inperson	1,305
−1.20	−6.10	1973-1980	−3.60	Medicine	inperson	8,793
−1.80	−6.80	1981-1990	−4.30	Medicine	inperson	9,163
−1.60	−6.50	1991-2000	−4.10	Medicine	inperson	7,987
0.800	−6	2001-2010	−2.60	Medicine	inperson	4,653
1.70	−5.40	2011-2018	−1.80	Medicine	inperson	4,554
18.30	2.50	2022-2024	10.40	Medicine	inperson	1,309
9.20	5	1973-1980	7.10	Press	inperson	8,744
7.20	3.40	1981-1990	5.30	Press	inperson	9,060
3	−0.100	1991-2000	1.40	Press	inperson	7,913
7.60	3.60	2001-2010	5.60	Press	inperson	4,642
10.20	6.30	2011-2018	8.30	Press	inperson	4,533
11.80	3.80	2022-2024	7.80	Press	inperson	1,297
5.90	2.10	1973-1980	4	Television	inperson	8,750
4.40	1	1981-1990	2.70	Television	inperson	9,116
4	0.900	1991-2000	2.40	Television	inperson	7,963
4.70	0.800	2001-2010	2.70	Television	inperson	4,639
5.40	1.20	2011-2018	3.30	Television	inperson	4,519
11.60	2.50	2022-2024	7.10	Television	inperson	1,291
5.50	1.90	1973-1980	3.70	Congress	inperson	8,671
3.50	−0.200	1981-1990	1.60	Congress	inperson	9,050
1.50	−1.70	1991-2000	−0.100	Congress	inperson	7,866
2.40	−2.30	2001-2010	0.100	Congress	inperson	4,611
2.50	−1	2011-2018	0.800	Congress	inperson	4,511
8.80	1.30	2022-2024	5	Congress	inperson	1,296
8.60	5.20	1973-1980	6.90	Organized labor	inperson	8,486
6.70	3.70	1981-1990	5.20	Organized labor	inperson	8,865
6.70	3.40	1991-2000	5.10	Organized labor	inperson	7,513
4.90	0.100	2001-2010	2.50	Organized labor	inperson	4,481
7	2.10	2011-2018	4.60	Organized labor	inperson	4,405
8.60	−7	2022-2024	0.800	Organized labor	inperson	964
−3.10	−8.90	1973-1980	−6	Banks and finance	inperson	6,227
0	−4.40	1981-1990	−2.20	Banks and finance	inperson	9,081
0.100	−4.10	1991-2000	−2	Banks and finance	inperson	7,925
−3.10	−9.10	2001-2010	−6.10	Banks and finance	inperson	4,629
−2.60	−7.90	2011-2018	−5.20	Banks and finance	inperson	4,551
7	−6.30	2022-2024	0.300	Banks and finance	inperson	1,307
−9.90	−14.50	1973-1980	−12.20	Major companies	inperson	8,493
−9.90	−14.50	1981-1990	−12.20	Major companies	inperson	8,892
−10	−14.40	1991-2000	−12.20	Major companies	inperson	7,783
−5	−10.40	2001-2010	−7.70	Major companies	inperson	4,591
−8.40	−14.30	2011-2018	−11.40	Major companies	inperson	4,494
5.50	−7.10	2022-2024	−0.800	Major companies	inperson	1,265
−0.800	−5.70	1973-1980	−3.20	Organized religion	inperson	8,534
1.30	−3.30	1981-1990	−1	Organized religion	inperson	8,988
−1.90	−6.40	1991-2000	−4.10	Organized religion	inperson	7,850
−6.10	−12.10	2001-2010	−9.10	Organized religion	inperson	4,575
−6.50	−12.60	2011-2018	−9.50	Organized religion	inperson	4,490
−4.80	−18.40	2022-2024	−11.60	Organized religion	inperson	1,264
2	−2.80	1973-1980	−0.400	Military	inperson	8,599
−1.80	−6.60	1981-1990	−4.20	Military	inperson	9,036
−6.50	−11.40	1991-2000	−8.90	Military	inperson	7,894
−18.90	−25.60	2001-2010	−22.30	Military	inperson	4,635
−11.70	−18.70	2011-2018	−15.20	Military	inperson	4,539
−5.40	−22.10	2022-2024	−13.70	Military	inperson	1,302
2.40	−2.40	1973-1980	0	Supreme Court	inperson	8,541
−2.80	−7.70	1981-1990	−5.30	Supreme Court	inperson	8,942
1.80	−2.90	1991-2000	−0.600	Supreme Court	inperson	7,737
−3.10	−9.80	2001-2010	−6.50	Supreme Court	inperson	4,571
4.40	−2.20	2011-2018	1.10	Supreme Court	inperson	4,497
−9.50	−22.80	2022-2024	−16.20	Supreme Court	inperson	1,289

What the gaps mean, and what they do not

The item asks about the people running one institution, with three answers, so it measures confidence in those people and not trust in other people or support for democracy as a form of government. The executive branch item in particular follows the incumbent administration. From 1973-1980 to 2022-2024 among in-person respondents, the share with a great deal of confidence fell for both parties in 88 institutionsEstimandcount of institutions where the 95% interval of the share with a great deal of confidence in 2022-2024 lies below the interval for 1973-1980 for both Democrats and Republicans; in-person interviewsWeightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)Populationthe thirteen institutionsPeriod1973-1980 to 2022-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey of the thirteen institutions, with intervals that do not overlap. It rose for both parties only in the military. A gap between party identifiers can also widen when the membership of the parties shifts along lines such as education or religion, the party sortingParty sortingThe alignment of party with other traits, such as ideology, religion, race and place, so that people who share a party also tend to share those traits. taken up in Chapter 2.1, Cohort change in partisan sorting. The GSS interviews a new sample each time, so it cannot say whether individuals changed their confidence or whether the people who call themselves Democrats or Republicans changed. Web respondents give a larger science gap than in-person respondents in 2022-2024, and the difference is not established once the thirteen comparisons are counted. Planned, Generalized and institutional trust (planned) asks whether trust in other people moved with confidence in institutions, and Planned, Institutional trust outside the United States (planned) asks whether comparable gaps appear in other democracies.

What these surveys cannot tell you

The comparison of in-person and web respondents cannot separate an effect of the mode from a difference between the people who answered in each mode. In 2022 respondents were assigned to a sequence of modes and each sequence followed up nonrespondents in the other mode [5], so the two mode samples reflect who answered which invitation. Causes are outside the design. The rise after 2018 coincides with a change of president, a pandemic and a change of mode, and the data cannot say which of them, if any, moved the gaps. Fewer respondents were interviewed in person in 2022 and 2024 than in earlier periods, so the estimates for those years are less precise. The thirteen institutions are the ones the GSS asks about, and the sample is national and supports no claims about states or counties.

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Go deeper

• The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
• Tables: every figure of the report as a table.

Reading paths that include this chapter:

• A tour of the book, one chapter per part
• Trust and democracy

Data sources

• General Social SurveyGeneral Social Survey cumulative data, 1972-2024, confidence items fielded 1973-2024; interview mode and interview date from the raw fileYears: 1972-2024 (35 study years) · Weights: weight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before) · License: See the provider's terms of use.

All data sources

References

1. Smith, Tom W. (2008). Trends in Confidence in Institutions, 1973-2006. GSS Social Change Report No. 54, NORC at the University of Chicago. gss.norc.org/content/dam/gss/get-documentation/pdf/reports/social-change-reports/SC54%20Trends%20in%20Confidence%20in%20Institutions.pdf
2. Kish, Leslie (1965). Survey Sampling. John Wiley and Sons.
3. NORC at the University of Chicago (2021). 2021 GSS (Cross-section Study) Methodological Primer. General Social Survey documentation, NORC at the University of Chicago (November 2021). gss.norc.org/content/dam/gss/get-documentation/pdf/other/2021%20XSEC%20Methodological%20Primer.pdf
4. Gauchat, Gordon (2012). Politicization of Science in the Public Sphere: A Study of Public Trust in the United States, 1974 to 2010. American Sociological Review 77(2): 167-187. doi:10.1177/0003122412438225
5. Wells, Brian M.; Christian, Leah; Bautista, René; Lafia, Sara; Davern, Michael (2024). Mode-Sequencing Insights from the General Social Survey. NORC at the University of Chicago (September 2024). www.norc.org/research/library/mode-sequencing-insights-from-the-general-social-survey.html

How to cite

@misc{singh2026confidenceininstitutions,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Confidence in thirteen institutions},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/confidence-in-institutions},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 30 September 2026.}
}