Chapter 4.1
The abortion sort
In the American National Election Studies, the share saying abortion should always be allowed was 3.5 points higher among Democrats than Republicans in 1980 and 52.3 points higher in 2024.
In 1980 the American National Election Studies (ANES) asked Americans which of four statements on abortion came closest to their view, and Democrats and Republicans chose the most permissive one at rates the survey cannot tell apart. That statement says a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal choice. The Democratic share choosing it exceeded the Republican share by 3.5 (95% CI −1.8 to 8.8)3.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the ANES four-category abortion question, answer 'always allowed as a matter of personal choice'Interval95% CI −1.8 to 8.8n1,313Weightsweight (VCF0009z; equals 1 for every respondent from 1980 to 1990, so those years are unweighted)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES abortion questionPeriod1980SourceANES Cumulative Data File pointsPercentage pointThe unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused., an interval that includes zero.Democrats and Republicans include independents who say they lean toward the party, the leanersPartisan leanerA respondent who first says they are independent but, when asked, says they lean toward one party. Most figures group leaners with the party they lean toward, and each chapter says which grouping it uses., throughout this essay. In 2024 the difference was 52.352.3 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the ANES four-category abortion question, answer 'always allowed as a matter of personal choice'Interval95% CI 48.8 to 55.9n4,666Weightsweight (VCF0009z; equals 1 for every respondent from 1980 to 1990, so those years are unweighted)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES abortion questionPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points. The gap first lay clearly above zero in the early 1990s, stayed within a narrow range through 2000 and grew most after that, so its emergence and its later widening are separate questions.
The gap opened in the early 1990s
This chapter measures the distance between the parties as that gap, the Democratic share giving the permissive answer minus the Republican share, in points. A positive gap means that Democrats were more likely than Republicans to give it. The General Social Survey (GSS) asks a different question, whether a legal abortion should be possible if the woman wants it for any reason, and shows the same widening. Its gap in 1980 was also too small to distinguish from zero, and in 2024 it was 47.547.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS abany question (a legal abortion should be possible if the woman wants it for any reason), answer yesInterval95% CI 41.4 to 53.5n1,534Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS abany questionPeriod2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points. Neither survey shows a consistent party gap in the 1980s; from 1992 on every ANES interval lies above zero, and from 1993 on every GSS interval does. Chapter 4.7, Sort dates by attitude dates the same gap with one rule for every attitude.
A gap can widen because one party moves, the other moves or both do. In the ANES the Democratic share giving the permissive answer rose from 37.3%37.3% percent of respondents who answered the questionEstimandweighted share; the ANES four-category abortion question, answer 'always allowed as a matter of personal choice'Interval95% CI 34.0% to 40.7%n801Weightsweight (VCF0009z; equals 1 for every respondent from 1980 to 1990, so those years are unweighted)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES abortion questionPeriod1980SourceANES Cumulative Data File in 1980 to 73.7%73.7% percent of respondents who answered the questionEstimandweighted share; the ANES four-category abortion question, answer 'always allowed as a matter of personal choice'Interval95% CI 71.2% to 76.2%n2,459Weightsweight (VCF0009z; equals 1 for every respondent from 1980 to 1990, so those years are unweighted)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES abortion questionPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File in 2024, by 3636.4 percentage pointsEstimandincrease in the weighted Democratic share, 2024 minus 1980 (two separate samples)Interval95% CI 32.2 to 40.6n3,260Weightsweight (VCF0009z; equals 1 for every respondent from 1980 to 1990, so those years are unweighted)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES abortion questionPeriod1980 to 2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, and the Republican share fell from 33.8%33.8% percent of respondents who answered the questionEstimandweighted share; the ANES four-category abortion question, answer 'always allowed as a matter of personal choice'Interval95% CI 29.7% to 37.9%n512Weightsweight (VCF0009z; equals 1 for every respondent from 1980 to 1990, so those years are unweighted)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES abortion questionPeriod1980SourceANES Cumulative Data File to 21.4%21.4% percent of respondents who answered the questionEstimandweighted share; the ANES four-category abortion question, answer 'always allowed as a matter of personal choice'Interval95% CI 18.9% to 23.8%n2,207Weightsweight (VCF0009z; equals 1 for every respondent from 1980 to 1990, so those years are unweighted)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES abortion questionPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File, by 1212.4 percentage pointsEstimanddecrease in the weighted Republican share, 1980 minus 2024 (two separate samples)Interval95% CI 7.6 to 17.2n2,719Weightsweight (VCF0009z; equals 1 for every respondent from 1980 to 1990, so those years are unweighted)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES abortion questionPeriod1980 to 2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, so Democratic support rose by more than Republican support fell. The GSS shows the same two movements from 1977, and most of its Republican fall came before 1998. A rise in support is a different change from a widening gap. Among all respondents who answered, including independents who lean toward neither party, the share giving the permissive answer rose in both surveys, by less than the Democratic share rose in each.
How the two surveys ask the question
Each ANES and GSS study interviews a new sample, so every estimate here describes the people asked in that year. The series used here begin in 1980 for the ANES and 1977 for the GSS and run through 2024. They cover the respondents who answered the question, 45,01745,017 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents who answered the question in the 17 studies that asked itWeightsnone (count)PopulationANES respondents who answered the abortion questionPeriod1980-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File in the ANES and 41,39841,398 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents who answered abanyWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS respondents who answered the abany questionPeriod1977-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey in the GSS. The estimates use the survey weightsSurvey weightsNumbers that scale each respondent so the sample matches the population on known traits such as age, race, education and region. A weighted average counts a respondent with a large weight for more than one with a small weight., which make each sample match the population on known traits. The chapter counts the most permissive answer in each survey, "always allowed" in the ANES and "yes" in the GSS. The questions differ, so a GSS level is not an ANES level, and the comparison between the surveys is of direction and timing. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.
The 2016 to 2020 rise coincides with a mode change
The largest change between adjacent ANES studies came between 2016 and 2020, when the gap rose by 1515.2 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the weighted party gap, 2020 minus 2016 (two separate samples)Interval95% CI 10.6 to 19.8n10,632Weightsweight (VCF0009z; equals 1 for every respondent from 1980 to 1990, so those years are unweighted)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES abortion questionPeriod2016 to 2020SourceANES Cumulative Data File points. The 2020 study also changed how people were interviewed. The ANES interviewed respondents mainly in person through 2008 and ran a web sample next to the in-person sample in 2012, 2016 and 2024. The 2020 study conducted no in-person interviews, and answers were collected online, by telephone or by video [1]. A change of survey modeSurvey modeHow respondents were interviewed: in person, by phone, on paper or online. Mode can change answers, so a change in mode can look like a change in opinion., the way a survey reaches its respondents, can change answers. The 2020 study has no separate weights by mode, so the ANES on its own cannot separate the mode change from a change in opinion.
Three comparisons hold the mode fixed. One sets ANES web respondents in 2016 against the 2020 study, which was collected mostly online. The other two set GSS in-person respondents and GSS web respondents before 2022 against the 2022 and 2024 surveys combined, when the GSS kept in-person interviewing next to a web sample. The gap rose in each of the three, and each interval lies above zero. These checks do not rule out a mode effect that appears only in 2020. They show that the gap also rose by similar amounts among respondents interviewed in the same mode. The ANES gap rose further between 2020 and 2024, by an amount whose interval includes zero. In June 2022 the Supreme Court decided Dobbs, which overturned Roe v. Wade [2], and the GSS gap rose between 2021 and 2022. That rise mixes a change from a mostly online survey to one that combined in-person and web interviews with any change in opinion, so the same-mode comparisons are the firmer evidence.
Abortion views came to track the presidential vote
Among ANES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or Republican candidate, the correlationCorrelationA number from minus 1 to plus 1 for how closely two measures move together in a straight-line pattern. Zero means no straight-line pattern; a correlation does not say that one measure causes the other. between the four-category abortion answer and a Democratic vote was −0.05 (95% CI −0.11 to 0.02)−0.05 correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1Estimandweighted Pearson correlation between the four-category abortion answer (higher = more permissive) and a Democratic vote (Fisher z interval on the Kish effective n)Interval95% CI −0.11 to 0.02n920Weightsweight (VCF0009z; equals 1 for every respondent from 1980 to 1990, so those years are unweighted)PopulationANES respondents who answered the abortion question and reported a Democratic or Republican presidential votePeriod1980SourceANES Cumulative Data File in 1980 and +0.59+0.59 correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1Estimandweighted Pearson correlation between the four-category abortion answer (higher = more permissive) and a Democratic vote (Fisher z interval on the Kish effective n)Interval95% CI 0.56 to 0.62n3,630Weightsweight (VCF0009z; equals 1 for every respondent from 1980 to 1990, so those years are unweighted)PopulationANES respondents who answered the abortion question and reported a Democratic or Republican presidential votePeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File in 2024. A correlation runs from minus one to plus one; zero means no straight-line relationship between the two answers and one a perfect one. The 1980 interval includes zero. The correlation does not say what share of votes the abortion answer predicts, and party identification and ideology also move with the vote, so it does not separate the abortion answer from them.
Figure 2
The correlation of abortion views with the vote rose to +0.59
Correlation between the four-category abortion answer (higher = more permissive) and a Democratic rather than Republican presidential vote, ANES presidential-election years, 95% intervals
Show data
| Year | Correlation | Lower | Upper | Respondents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | −0.05 | −0.11 | 0.02 | 920 |
| 1984 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 1,341 |
| 1988 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 1,182 |
| 1992 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 0.22 | 1,615 |
| 1996 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 1,096 |
| 2000 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.30 | 1,092 |
| 2004 | 0.26 | 0.18 | 0.33 | 796 |
| 2008 | 0.32 | 0.24 | 0.40 | 754 |
| 2012 | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 4,168 |
| 2016 | 0.42 | 0.38 | 0.46 | 2,577 |
| 2020 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.54 | 5,977 |
| 2024 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.62 | 3,630 |
The line starts at about zero in 1980, is higher by 1984, changes little to 1988 and rises in every election after that to its highest value in 2024. The band is a 95% interval, the rule at zero marks no relationship, and the shaded band marks the ANES mode change between 2016 and 2020. Values in Table 7.
The gap widened within every group
A widening gap in the whole electorate could come from one kind of voter, and Figure 3 shows that it did not. It splits the gap by religious attendance, education and birth cohortCohortPeople born in the same period, such as the same decade. Comparing cohorts shows whether a difference comes from when people were born, as distinct from their age or the year they were surveyed. and compares the 1980s with the 2020s. In every group of either survey the 2020s interval lies above the 1980s interval. Attendance relates to the level of support in both parties, and frequent attenders in each were less likely than infrequent attenders to give the permissive answer in the 2020s. The 2020s gap is not distinguishable between frequent and infrequent attenders in either survey. In the ANES the difference between the two groups is −3.5 (95% CI −8.8 to 1.7)−3.5 percentage pointsEstimandparty gap among people who attend weekly or nearly weekly minus the gap among people who attend a few times a year or never (independent groups)Interval95% CI −8.8 to 1.7n10,621Weightsweight (VCF0009z; equals 1 for every respondent from 1980 to 1990), rescaled to average one within each survey year before combiningPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES abortion questionPeriod2020s (ANES 2020 and 2024)SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, an interval that includes zero. Education starts from a different point. College graduates already differed by party in the 1980s, while the gap among people with a high school education or less had an interval that included zero. The GSS, which splits at a bachelor's degree, gives the same order in both periods.
Figure 3
The party gap widened in every group
Democratic minus Republican share saying yes, 1980s against 2020s, by group; party identifiers including leaners; 95% intervals
- 1980s
- 2020s
Show data
| Survey and item | Group | 1980s gap (points) | Lower | Upper | Respondents | 2020s gap (points) | Lower | Upper | Respondents |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANES: always allowed | All partisans | 3.6 | 1.5 | 5.7 | 7,943 | 49.8 | 47.6 | 52.0 | 11,668 |
| ANES: always allowed | Weekly attenders | 3.8 | 0.9 | 6.6 | 3,018 | 42.1 | 37.7 | 46.6 | 3,119 |
| ANES: always allowed | Monthly attenders | −0.1 | −6.0 | 5.8 | 1,060 | 43.8 | 36.0 | 51.5 | 986 |
| ANES: always allowed | Yearly or never | 2.8 | −0.4 | 6.1 | 3,777 | 45.7 | 42.8 | 48.5 | 7,502 |
| ANES: always allowed | High school or less | −2.1 | −4.9 | 0.7 | 4,431 | 37.9 | 33.1 | 42.7 | 2,406 |
| ANES: always allowed | Some college | 10.0 | 5.6 | 14.4 | 1,913 | 51.8 | 48.0 | 55.7 | 3,798 |
| ANES: always allowed | College graduate | 20.7 | 15.8 | 25.6 | 1,544 | 56.0 | 53.0 | 59.0 | 5,343 |
| ANES: always allowed | Born 1927 to 1942 | 0.7 | −3.9 | 5.3 | 1,706 | 50.8 | 42.0 | 59.6 | 675 |
| ANES: always allowed | Born 1943 to 1958 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 11.7 | 2,899 | 49.3 | 45.2 | 53.5 | 3,123 |
| ANES: always allowed | Born 1959 to 1974 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 15.7 | 1,165 | 49.8 | 45.6 | 54.0 | 3,016 |
| GSS: any reason | All partisans | −0.4 | −2.8 | 2.0 | 9,791 | 45.5 | 41.3 | 49.7 | 3,409 |
| GSS: any reason | Weekly attenders | 3.3 | −0.3 | 6.9 | 3,032 | 46.0 | 36.1 | 55.8 | 648 |
| GSS: any reason | Monthly attenders | 1.8 | −3.4 | 6.9 | 2,193 | 42.6 | 32.2 | 53.0 | 573 |
| GSS: any reason | Yearly or less | −5.7 | −9.3 | −2.0 | 4,539 | 38.1 | 32.7 | 43.6 | 2,165 |
| GSS: any reason | No bachelor's degree | −1.1 | −3.7 | 1.6 | 8,074 | 38.0 | 32.4 | 43.6 | 1,947 |
| GSS: any reason | Bachelor's or higher | 10.8 | 5.2 | 16.4 | 1,694 | 56.1 | 49.9 | 62.4 | 1,457 |
| GSS: any reason | Born 1943 to 1958 | 2.7 | −1.3 | 6.7 | 3,495 | 47.4 | 39.4 | 55.5 | 834 |
| GSS: any reason | Born 1959 to 1974 | 3.1 | −3.3 | 9.5 | 1,420 | 42.9 | 35.0 | 50.7 | 914 |
Every row moves to the right. In each group the filled dot for the 2020s sits to the right of the open dot for the 1980s, and the two intervals do not overlap. The rows are all partisans, the attendance groups, the education groups and the birth cohorts with enough respondents in both periods; the GSS view repeats the comparison in the other survey. Values in Table 4.
Political scientists call the path by which a new issue becomes part of the party system issue evolution [3], and Adams applied the account to abortion [4]. The change these surveys record is one case of party sortingParty sortingThe alignment of party with other traits, such as ideology, religion, race and place, so that people who share a party also tend to share those traits., in which an opinion that once cut across the parties comes to line up with them. The people out of step with their party grew fewer on both sides, and few Democrats now say abortion should never be permitted. Killian and Wilcox followed panel respondents from 1982 to 1997 and found that pro-life Democrats and pro-choice Republicans were more likely than other partisans to switch parties over that period [5]. Lockhart, Gerber and Huber report, from a large panel that spans the Dobbs decision, that partisans whose abortion preferences did not match their party were more likely to change their party identification afterward [6]. The data used here have no panel and cannot observe either change. The associations here do not show that abortion opinion changed party loyalty or that party loyalty changed abortion opinion.
What these surveys cannot tell you
Each study interviews a new sample, so the gap can widen because people change their view, change their party or are replaced by new adults, and the surveys cannot say which. The two panel studies above address that question with other data. The ANES has no separate weights by mode for 2020, so the chapter cannot say how much of the 2016 to 2020 change came from the change of mode. It has no study between 2020 and 2024, so none measures opinion before and after the Dobbs decision within one design. Both questions measure the most permissive position, neither measures how much respondents care about the issue, and the series begin in 1977 and 1980, so they cannot say when the divide started.
Go deeper
- The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
- Tables: every figure of the report as a table.
- Issues: the explorer for this part.
Reading paths that include this chapter:
Data sources
- ANES Cumulative Data FileCumulative Data File 1948-2024, four-category abortion item (VCF0838) in the 17 studies from 1980 to 2024; mode weights for 2012, 2016 and 2024Years: 1948-2024 (33 study years; even years only after 2004; no 2006, 2010 or 2014 study) · Weights: weight (VCF0009z, which equals 1 for every respondent from 1980 to 1990); weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode split · License: Free download after accepting the ANES terms of use; cite the release.
- ANES 2024 Time Series2024 Time Series, attendance items V241439 and V241440, used for the 2024 attendance groupsYears: 2024 (pre-election and post-election interviews) · Weights: V240107a, the pre-election weight that the cumulative file uses for 2024 · License: Free download after accepting the ANES terms of use; cite the release.
- General Social SurveyCumulative data 1972-2024, abany asked in 29 surveys from 1977 to 2024; interview mode joined from the raw fileYears: 1972-2024 (35 study years) · Weights: weight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before) · License: See the provider's terms of use.
References
- American National Election Studies (2021). ANES 2020 Time Series Study Full Release: User Guide and Codebook. Stanford University and the University of Michigan. electionstudies.org/data-center/2020-time-series-study/
- Supreme Court of the United States (2022). Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, 597 U.S. 215. Decided 24 June 2022. www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/19-1392_6j37.pdf
- Carmines, Edward G.; Stimson, James A. (1989). Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics. Princeton University Press.
- Adams, Greg D. (1997). Abortion: Evidence of an Issue Evolution. American Journal of Political Science 41(3): 718-737.
- Killian, Mitchell; Wilcox, Clyde (2008). Do Abortion Attitudes Lead to Party Switching?. Political Research Quarterly 61(4): 561-573. doi:10.1177/1065912907312981
- Lockhart, Mackenzie; Gerber, Alan S.; Huber, Gregory A. (2024). Policy Shapes Partisan Identification: How Dobbs made pre-existing abortion policy preferences relevant to partisanship. Working paper, Yale University. huber.research.yale.edu/writings.html
How to cite
@misc{singh2026theabortionsort,
author = {Singh, Vishal},
title = {The abortion sort},
year = {2026},
url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-abortion-sort},
note = {In The Public Mind. Published 30 September 2026.}
}