Chapter 3.6

The gender gap in attitudes and votes

In 2024 women gave the Democratic presidential candidate more of the two-party vote than men did, by 8.1 points in the ANES.

Author: Vishal Singh
Affiliation: NYU Stern
Published: 30 September 2026

Among respondents to the American National Election Studies (ANES) who reported voting for a major-party candidate for president in 2024, the Democratic share was 8 points higher among women than among men.The vote gap is women minus men, so a positive value means women were more Democratic. That difference is the gender gap. Its size in 2024, and whether it widened or narrowed after 2020, depend on which survey is read and how its respondents are weighted.

The ANES gap estimate has been positive since 1964

The ANES has asked a cross-section of Americans how they voted after every presidential election since 1952. Figure 1 plots its gap, women minus men, with the Cooperative Election Study (CES), a larger online survey, beside it from 2008. The ANES estimate is negative in the three elections before 1964, and only the 1956 interval lies below zero. From 1964 the estimate is positive in every election, and the interval lies above zero in 11 of those 16 elections. The highest estimate is 14.9 points in 1996. The change from 1996 to 2024 is −6.8 (95% CI −14.6 to 1.1), an interval that includes zero, so a fall from the 1996 peak is not shown.

Figure 1

The ANES vote gap estimate has been positive since 1964 and peaked at 14.9 points in 1996

Women's minus men's Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote, points, among voters for a major-party candidate; ANES 1952 to 2024 and CES 2008 to 2024; 95% intervals

Gap in Democratic share of two-party vote (points)

Show data

Data for The ANES vote gap estimate has been positive since 1964 and peaked at 14.9 points in 1996
Election	Survey	Gap (points)	Lower 95%	Upper 95%	Voters
1952	ANES	−2.1	−7.7	3.5	1,181
1956	ANES	−6.2	−11.6	−0.8	1,266
1960	ANES	−5.4	−13.1	2.3	898
1964	ANES	3.7	−1.8	9.3	1,111
1968	ANES	4.6	−1.4	10.7	1,027
1972	ANES	6.6	1.9	11.3	1,587
1976	ANES	0.2	−5.3	5.8	1,322
1980	ANES	6.9	0.7	13.1	958
1984	ANES	7.6	2.4	12.8	1,376
1988	ANES	6.5	0.8	12.2	1,195
1992	ANES	10.1	5.3	14.9	1,658
1996	ANES	14.9	8.4	21.3	1,116
2000	ANES	8.9	2.4	15.4	1,120
2004	ANES	7.1	−0.4	14.6	811
2008	ANES	5.0	−1.2	11.3	1,539
2012	ANES	5.2	1.1	9.3	4,188
2016	ANES	6.0	1.3	10.7	2,579
2020	ANES	4.1	0.6	7.6	6,183
2024	ANES	8.1	3.6	12.6	3,943
2008	CES	6.4	4.8	7.9	23,585
2012	CES	5.3	3.7	6.8	37,789
2016	CES	8.2	6.9	9.5	40,891
2020	CES	8.6	7.4	9.9	43,872
2024	CES	4.1	2.6	5.7	41,757

Follow the ANES line. It sits below the zero line in 1952, 1956 and 1960, above it from 1964 on, and highest in 1996. The CES line, from 2008 to 2024, has narrower bands; in 2024 it turns down while the ANES line turns up. Where the ANES band, a 95% interval, crosses the zero line, as in 1976, the gap is not distinguishable from zero. Values in Table 1.

Note: The ANES added web interviews in 2012. The gap is 0.2 among face-to-face respondents and 7.8 among web respondents in 2012, and 1.8 and 8.4 in 2024; each face-to-face interval includes zero. The file has no mode weights for 2020.Note: In 2024 the CES weight for respondents matched to voter-file records gives 8.0, and the standard weight on the same respondents gives 3.6.Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1952-2024, and CES Cumulative File, 2008-2024; weighted with each survey's survey weights (the ANES post-election weight where the file has one)

How the two surveys measure the vote

Both gaps are computed among respondents who said they voted for the Democratic or Republican candidate, weighted so that each sample matches the population. The 2024 ANES gap rests on 3,943 such voters and the 2024 CES gap on 41,757, and the CES intervals are narrower at every election from 2008 to 2024. The CES is an online survey of opt-in panel members whose weights match them to the electorate, so it is not a random sample of adults. Its intervals describe sampling noise and not who joined the panel. The ANES added web interviews in 2012, so its later readings mix two survey modes, and a difference of mode cannot be separated from sampling noise. The votes are self-reported, the two surveys and the two CES weights give different 2024 gaps, and these data cannot say which is closest to the electorate. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.

The surveys disagree about the change since 2020

The CES puts the 2024 gap at 4 points, a lower estimate than the ANES's. The two surveys' intervals overlap at every election from 2008 to 2024, yet they disagree about the latest change. In Figure 1 the CES line sits above the ANES line in 2020, with an interval on the difference that lies above zero, and below it in 2024. From 2020 to 2024 the ANES estimate moved up and the CES estimate moved down, and the two changes differ by −8.5 (95% CI −14.5 to −2.5), an interval that excludes zero.

The weight matters as well. CES respondents matched to voter-file records (lists of registered voters), weighted with the survey's weight for matched voters, show a 2024 gap of 8 points. On those same respondents the matched weight gives a gap higher than the standard weight's by +4.3 (95% CI 2.9 to 5.5), an interval that excludes zero. The level of the 2024 CES gap therefore depends on the weight as well as on the survey.

A larger gap among the young is not shown

The CES gap can be split by age. In 2024 the under-thirty gap minus the gap among voters thirty and older is +2.6 (95% CI −3.8 to 8.9), and its confidence interval includes zero, so a larger gap among the young is not shown. Figure 2 sets the two gaps side by side for each CES presidential election. In 2008, 2012 and 2020 the under-thirty gap was smaller than the older gap, with an interval below zero, and in 2016 the interval included zero. Between 2020 and 2024 the difference moved by +8.6 (95% CI 1.0 to 16.1), an interval that excludes zero by a small margin. The intervals assume a simple random sample, so intervals that allowed for the survey design could include zero. The evidence that the age pattern changed rests on this one survey.

Figure 2

The under-thirty vote gap was smaller than the older gap in 2008, 2012 and 2020 and not in 2024

Women's minus men's Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote, points, by age group and election; CES 2008 to 2024; 95% intervals

The two gaps, election by election

Gap by age group, points; the open dot is the gap at 30 and over and the filled dot the gap under 30

Age 30 and over
Under 30

Change is the under-thirty gap minus the gap at thirty and over, and the difference tab plots it with its interval.

Show data

Data for The under-thirty vote gap was smaller than the older gap in 2008, 2012 and 2020 and not in 2024, The two gaps
Election	Weight	Gap, 30 and over	Lower 95%	Upper 95%	Gap, under 30	Lower 95%	Upper 95%	Under 30 minus 30 and over	Lower 95%	Upper 95%
2008	Standard weight	8.3	6.7	9.9	−0.6	−4.6	3.4	−8.9	−13.2	−4.6
2012	Standard weight	6.2	4.7	7.8	0.3	−4.6	5.1	−6.0	−11.1	−0.9
2016	Standard weight	8.3	6.9	9.7	4.4	0.2	8.5	−4.0	−8.3	0.4
2020	Standard weight	9.1	7.8	10.4	3.2	−0.7	7.0	−6.0	−10.1	−1.9
2024	Standard weight	3.9	2.4	5.4	6.5	0.4	12.7	2.6	−3.8	8.9
2024, matched	Matched weight	7.3	5.8	8.9	11.6	3.8	19.3	4.2	−3.7	12.1

In each row the filled dot is the gap among voters under thirty and the open dot the gap among voters thirty and older, each with its 95% interval. The filled dot sits left of the open dot from 2008 through 2020 and right of it in 2024, where the two intervals overlap. The last row is 2024 with the matched weight, which moves both dots to the right; the difference between them again includes zero. The other tab plots the difference itself with its interval. Values in Table 3.

Note: Each gap has its own interval, and the interval of the difference combines the two standard errors as if the two age groups were independent samples.Source: CES Cumulative File, 2008-2024; weighted (survey weights; the weight for respondents matched to voter-file records in the matched-weight rows)

The under-thirty estimate is imprecise. In 2024 the smaller of the women's and men's groups under thirty has an effective sample of 434 respondents, because the CES holds few voters under thirty and their weights vary. Both young women and young men gave the Democratic candidate a smaller share of their two-party vote in 2024 than in 2020 (Table 5). The gap between the two changes has an interval that includes zero, so a faster move by men cannot be separated from a move shared by both.

Party separates gender-role attitudes more than gender does

Party separates attitudes about the roles of men and women more than gender does in 3 of the 4 surveys here. The surveys ask about gender roles in ways that cannot be merged into one scale, so each is analyzed alone on one item chosen for this chapter. Each gap is in the share taking the traditional or hostile position. The 2024 General Social Survey (GSS) asks whether it is better if the man is the achiever outside the home and the woman takes care of the home and family. The share who agree is higher among Republicans than among Democrats by 26 points, and higher among men than among women by 4.4 (95% CI −1.1 to 9.9), an interval that includes zero. The party gap minus the gender gap has an interval above zero in the GSS, in the ANES and in Nationscape. The ANES item is a cold rating of feminists on the feeling thermometer, and the Nationscape item, from an opt-in online panel, concerns women who report harassment. The World Values Survey (WVS) is the exception, and its comparison differs in kind. The file used here has no party variable for the United States, so the left and right sides of its left-right scale stand in for Democrats and Republicans. The right-minus-left gap minus the gender gap is 0.3 (95% CI −2.9 to 3.5), an interval that includes zero.

Figure 3

Party, or left-right group in the WVS, separates the traditional answer more than gender does in 3 of 4 surveys

Points and percent taking the traditional or hostile position on the one item each survey asks; most recent wave of each survey; 95% intervals

Party gap, gender gap and their difference in each survey

Party gap is Republicans minus Democrats (right side minus left side in the WVS) and gender gap is men minus women; points

Party gap
Gender gap
Party gap minus gender gap

GSS 2024: man the achiever, woman at home

ANES 2024: feminists rated below 50

WVS 2017: men first when jobs are scarce

Nationscape 2019 to 2021: harassment complaints

Gap in the traditional or hostile position (points)

The party gap is 25.8 in the GSS against a gender gap of 4.4, 31.6 against 8.8 in the ANES, 19.2 against 9.6 in Nationscape and 3.2 against 2.9 in the WVS.

Show data

Data for Party, or left-right group in the WVS, separates the traditional answer more than gender does in 3 of 4 surveys, Party gap and gender gap
Survey	Measure	Points	Lower 95%	Upper 95%	Respondents
GSS 2024: man the achiever, woman at home	Party gap	25.8	19.6	31.9	1,548
GSS 2024: man the achiever, woman at home	Gender gap	4.4	−1.1	9.9	2,153
GSS 2024: man the achiever, woman at home	Party gap minus gender gap	21.3	13.1	29.6	3,701
ANES 2024: feminists rated below 50	Party gap	31.6	28.3	34.9	5,103
ANES 2024: feminists rated below 50	Gender gap	8.8	5.5	12.1	5,475
ANES 2024: feminists rated below 50	Party gap minus gender gap	22.8	18.1	27.5	10,578
WVS 2017: men first when jobs are scarce	Party gap	3.2	0.8	5.5	2,534
WVS 2017: men first when jobs are scarce	Gender gap	2.9	0.7	5.0	2,591
WVS 2017: men first when jobs are scarce	Party gap minus gender gap	0.3	−2.9	3.5	5,125
Nationscape 2019 to 2021: harassment complaints	Party gap	19.2	18.4	20.0	317,051
Nationscape 2019 to 2021: harassment complaints	Gender gap	9.6	9.1	10.1	480,535
Nationscape 2019 to 2021: harassment complaints	Party gap minus gender gap	9.6	8.7	10.5	797,586

In the GSS, ANES and Nationscape panels the party-gap dot sits to the right of the gender-gap dot. The third dot, the party gap minus the gender gap, has an interval that lies above zero. In the WVS panel the first two dots sit close together and the third dot's interval includes zero. That panel compares the right and left sides of a left-right scale, not parties, because the file has no party variable. The items differ by survey, so levels are not comparable across panels. Values in Table 7.

Note: GSS: agree or strongly agree that it is much better if the man is the achiever outside the home and the woman takes care of the home and family. ANES: rating feminists below 50 on the 0 to 100 feeling thermometer. WVS: agree that men should have more right to a job than women when jobs are scarce. Nationscape: agree that women who complain about harassment often cause more problems than they solve.Note: Nationscape is an opt-in online panel, not a random sample of adults. Its intervals allow for correlation within the weekly wave, which widens them, and still describe sampling noise among panel members and not who joins the panel.Source: GSS 2024, ANES 2024, WVS United States 2017 and Nationscape 2019-2021; weighted (survey weights; Nationscape intervals cluster on the weekly wave)

Work covering 1952 to 1996 traced the vote gap to a change in the partisanship of men [1]. A time-series study of 1979 to 2000 tied its growth to a more conservative political climate, a weaker economy and a larger share of economically vulnerable single women [2]. The estimates here describe the gap and test neither account. The attitude items differ in wording, scale and window, so their levels cannot be compared across surveys or merged into one index. A different item could change the count of surveys in which the party gap exceeds the gender gap. For the parties' coalitions as a whole, see Chapter 3.2, The two coalitions.

What these surveys cannot tell you

The estimates describe groups in each year and cannot show that any person changed. A rise in the under-thirty gap between two elections compares different people, so age cannot be separated from generation here, which Chapter 3.7, Age and generation takes up. Both the CES and Nationscape are opt-in online panels, so their intervals leave out the error that comes from who joined the panel. Results whose interval ends close to zero, such as the change in the age difference since 2020, could include zero if the intervals were wider. All the data are from the United States, the files record two genders, and nothing here measures why the gaps arise.

Go deeper

The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
Tables: every figure of the report as a table.

Data sources

ANES Cumulative Data FileCumulative Data File, presidential vote 1952-2024 and feminist thermometer 1988-2024Years: 1948-2024 (33 study years; even years only after 2004; no 2006, 2010 or 2014 study) · Weights: post-election weight where available, else VCF0009z · License: Free download after accepting the ANES terms of use; cite the release.
Cooperative Election StudyCumulative File, presidential vote 2008-2024 and party identification 2006-2024Years: 2006-2024 (every year; self-reported turnout is available in the 10 even years) · Weights: weight_cumulative; vvweight for the matched-weight rows (2024) · License: See the provider's terms of use.
General Social Survey1977-2024, gender-role item fefam, with interview mode from the raw fileYears: 1972-2024 (35 study years) · Weights: weight_use · License: See the provider's terms of use.
World Values Survey and EVSUnited States, wave 7 (2017)Years: 1981-2023 (7 unified waves) · Weights: weight (S017) · License: Free download with registration; users must cite the release.
NationscapeWeekly waves, July 2019 to February 2021Years: 2019-07-18 to 2021-04-15 (85 weekly waves) · Weights: weight; errors clustered on the weekly wave · License: Free after registration and acceptance of the Voter Study Group terms; also on Harvard Dataverse.

All data sources

References

Kaufmann, Karen M.; Petrocik, John R. (1999). The Changing Politics of American Men: Understanding the Sources of the Gender Gap. American Journal of Political Science 43(3): 864-887. doi:10.2307/2991838
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M.; De Boef, Suzanna; Lin, Tse-min (2004). The Dynamics of the Partisan Gender Gap. American Political Science Review 98(3): 515-528. doi:10.1017/S0003055404001315

How to cite

@misc{singh2026thegendergap,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {The gender gap in attitudes and votes},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-gender-gap},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 30 September 2026.}
}