Chapter 3.7

Age and generation

In the CES, two-party presidential voters under thirty were more Democratic than those sixty-five and older by +22.2 points in 2020 and +15.0 in 2024.

Author: Vishal Singh
Affiliation: NYU Stern
Published: 3 October 2026

DraftFigures and numbers may change as the analysis is rebuilt.what is still being checked

This draft uses repeated cross-sections only. The ANES 2016-2020-2024 panel and the CES panel files, which re-interview the same people, are not in the data store.

In the Cooperative Election Study (CES), two-party presidential voters under thirty were more Democratic than voters sixty-five and older by +22.2 points in 2020 and by +15.0 points in 2024. A gap that narrows in one election invites two readings. In the first, the people who were young in 2024 belong to a birth cohort unlike the cohorts before it. In the second, one election moved young voters more than old ones. Only the first would describe a lasting generational change, and the gap in a single election cannot tell the two apart.

The 2024 gap depends on which voters are counted

The fall between 2020 and 2024 is measured among all CES voters. The CES also holds a weight for voters whose registration was matched to a voter-file record, which the chapter calls matched voters.The CES file calls this weight the validated-voter weight. Among them the 2024 gap was +23.0 points, and its change from 2020 is +0.2 (95% CI −4.5 to 4.9) points, an interval that includes zero. The data show no detectable fall among matched voters and do not show that none occurred, and the two changes differ by more than sampling error. The American National Election Studies (ANES), the second survey, put the 2024 gap at −1.1 (95% CI −9.4 to 7.1) points, an interval that includes zero and a fall from 2020. The ANES 2024 sample leans Democratic. Its two-party Democratic share was 54.5% against a certified count of 49.2%, while the CES share is close to the count, and the excess is largest among voters sixty-five and older. The ANES gap for 2024 is therefore read beside the CES and not on its own.

Figure 1

In every CES election from 2008 to 2020 the Democratic share was lower among voters forty-five to sixty-four than among voters thirty to forty-four, and lower again among voters sixty-five and older

Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote by age band (18 to 24, 25 to 29, 30 to 44, 45 to 64 and 65 and over), CES 2008 to 2024; 95% intervals

Democratic share of two-party vote (%)

Show data

Data for In every CES election from 2008 to 2020 the Democratic share was lower among voters forty-five to sixty-four than among voters thirty to forty-four, and lower again among voters sixty-five and older
Weight	Election	Age band	Democratic share (%)	95% interval low	95% interval high	Voters
standard	2008	18 to 24	69.3	66.5	72.1	1,641
standard	2012	18 to 24	62.2	58.8	65.6	1,633
standard	2016	18 to 24	67.7	64.8	70.7	1,569
standard	2020	18 to 24	70.5	67.6	73.4	1,795
standard	2024	18 to 24	63.4	58.7	68.2	1,478
standard	2008	25 to 29	64.3	61.7	67.0	1,686
standard	2012	25 to 29	61.7	58.4	65.0	1,919
standard	2016	25 to 29	64.0	61.5	66.6	2,449
standard	2020	25 to 29	65.9	63.4	68.5	2,565
standard	2024	25 to 29	58.5	54.5	62.4	1,604
standard	2008	30 to 44	56.4	54.9	57.9	5,702
standard	2012	30 to 44	58.8	56.9	60.7	4,370
standard	2016	30 to 44	57.5	56.2	58.9	8,868
standard	2020	30 to 44	61.5	60.2	62.7	9,870
standard	2024	30 to 44	55.1	53.5	56.8	7,073
standard	2008	45 to 64	50.6	49.4	51.7	10,079
standard	2012	45 to 64	51.3	50.3	52.2	18,715
standard	2016	45 to 64	47.4	46.5	48.3	18,133
standard	2020	45 to 64	49.2	48.3	50.2	17,747
standard	2024	45 to 64	43.9	42.8	45.1	16,848
standard	2008	65 and over	42.7	41.0	44.5	4,477
standard	2012	65 and over	43.2	41.9	44.6	11,152
standard	2016	65 and over	42.8	41.3	44.3	9,872
standard	2020	65 and over	45.6	44.4	46.8	11,895
standard	2024	65 and over	45.5	44.4	46.7	15,005
validated	2020	18 to 24	70.4	67.0	73.9	1,180
validated	2024	18 to 24	68.7	62.9	74.6	530
validated	2020	25 to 29	67.9	64.8	70.9	1,736
validated	2024	25 to 29	62.3	57.5	67.0	873
validated	2020	30 to 44	62.8	61.4	64.1	7,532
validated	2024	30 to 44	57.0	55.2	58.7	5,208
validated	2020	45 to 64	48.7	47.7	49.7	14,897
validated	2024	45 to 64	45.9	44.8	47.0	13,637
validated	2020	65 and over	46.1	44.8	47.4	10,401
validated	2024	65 and over	41.6	40.4	42.9	12,700

Follow the two colored lines at the top, voters eighteen to twenty-four and twenty-five to twenty-nine, against the colored line at the bottom, voters sixty-five and older. The young lines sit above the old one in every election, and in 2024 they are lower than in 2020 and closer to it. The grey lines are the two middle bands, and in 2024 the two oldest bands are close enough that their order is not settled. Each point is the weighted Democratic share of two-party voters in one age band, and the bands are 95% intervals. The second button shows matched voters only. Values in Table 2.

Note: The CES holds far more young voters than the ANES, so no cell falls below the floor. The CES is an opt-in online panel, so its intervals describe sampling variation among panel members and leave out how respondents joined the panel.Note: Intervals are model based: they treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample and ignore clustering and stratification.Source: CES Cumulative File, presidential elections 2008-2024; weighted (weight_cumulative); two-party presidential voters

Two surveys, and who counts as a voter in them

The ANES Cumulative Data File supplies 33,768 respondents in the presidential elections from 1952 to 2024 who reported a vote for the Democratic or the Republican candidate and gave an age. Such a respondent is a two-party voter, and a Democratic share is the share of them who reported a Democratic vote. The CES, an online panel that people opt into, supplies 188,145 two-party voters in the elections from 2008 to 2024, and it holds far more young voters than the ANES.The age groups are eighteen to twenty-nine, thirty to forty-four, forty-five to sixty-four and sixty-five and older, the bands Chapter 3.2, The two coalitions uses for the age make-up of each party's voters. Every estimate is weighted so that the sample matches the population on known traits. The qualification that matters for 2024 is who was counted. The share of CES voters under thirty whose registration could be matched to a voter-file record fell between 2020 and 2024, and the unmatched young voters of 2024 were less Democratic than the matched ones. The data cannot say why. Some may be voters the match missed, and some may have said they voted and did not. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.

Two cohorts' Democratic leads were smaller by 2024

Comparing age groups inside one election mixes two things, because the older voters in any election were also born earlier. A second comparison follows a birth cohort, the people born in the same span of years, from one election to the next. Figure 2 does this for the ANES in sixteen-year birth groups and plots each cohort's Democratic share minus the share among voters born in other years in the same election. The subtraction removes anything that moved all voters together in one election, such as a landslide, and leaves age and the changing make-up of the other voters in place.

The cohort born 1975 to 1990 led other voters by +20 points in 2004, its first election with enough voters to publish, and by +1.5 (95% CI −3.7 to 6.6) points in 2024. The cohort born 1943 to 1958 began with a lead in 1972 and held a smaller one in 2024. The CES, which starts in 2008, shows the same direction for the 1975 to 1990 cohort. The pattern is not general. The cohort born 1927 to 1942 was below other voters in every ANES election from 2008 to 2020 and above them in 2024. The data do not show a loss of the lead of the cohort born 1911 to 1926 between 1952 and 1996.

Figure 2

The cohorts born 1943 to 1958 and 1975 to 1990 began with a Democratic lead over other voters in the ANES and held a smaller one in 2024

Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote among voters in each birth cohort minus the share among voters born in other years, points, ANES 1952 to 2024; 95% intervals; the buttons switch survey and measure

Show data

Data for The cohorts born 1943 to 1958 and 1975 to 1990 began with a Democratic lead over other voters in the ANES and held a smaller one in 2024
Survey	Birth cohort	Election	Democratic share (%)	95% interval low	95% interval high	Lead over other voters (points)	95% interval low (lead)	95% interval high (lead)	Voters
anes	Born 1895 to 1910	1952	38.9	33.9	43.8	−4.6	−10.7	+1.4	373
anes	Born 1895 to 1910	1956	39.3	34.2	44.4	−1.4	−7.5	+4.6	354
anes	Born 1895 to 1910	1960	49.5	42.4	56.6	+0.4	−8.1	+8.9	261
anes	Born 1895 to 1910	1964	65.9	60.1	71.7	−2.1	−8.6	+4.5	261
anes	Born 1895 to 1910	1968	46.1	39.0	53.2	−0.2	−8.2	+7.7	191
anes	Born 1895 to 1910	1972	32.0	26.3	37.8	−4.5	−10.8	+1.9	253
anes	Born 1895 to 1910	1976	52.3	45.2	59.3	+1.4	−6.3	+9.0	202
anes	Born 1895 to 1910	1980	50.0	40.2	59.8	+7.1	−3.3	+17.4	102
anes	Born 1911 to 1926	1952	46.8	42.2	51.4	+7.8	+2.0	+13.6	453
anes	Born 1911 to 1926	1956	41.1	36.8	45.3	+1.4	−4.2	+6.9	516
anes	Born 1911 to 1926	1960	51.2	45.2	57.1	+3.3	−4.6	+11.1	372
anes	Born 1911 to 1926	1964	68.6	64.0	73.1	+1.7	−4.0	+7.4	401
anes	Born 1911 to 1926	1968	43.1	37.6	48.6	−4.8	−11.6	+2.0	313
anes	Born 1911 to 1926	1972	29.6	25.3	33.9	−8.4	−13.6	−3.3	432
anes	Born 1911 to 1926	1976	53.1	47.9	58.4	+2.7	−3.4	+8.9	363
anes	Born 1911 to 1926	1980	46.9	40.3	53.4	+4.2	−3.4	+11.7	224
anes	Born 1911 to 1926	1984	44.4	38.5	50.2	+3.2	−3.4	+9.8	275
anes	Born 1911 to 1926	1988	44.3	37.8	50.8	−3.5	−10.7	+3.7	228
anes	Born 1911 to 1926	1992	61.9	55.7	68.1	+4.1	−2.8	+11.0	237
anes	Born 1911 to 1926	1996	64.0	56.0	72.0	+6.5	−2.4	+15.3	163
anes	Born 1927 to 1942	1956	42.1	34.9	49.4	+2.2	−5.7	+10.0	178
anes	Born 1927 to 1942	1960	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
anes	Born 1927 to 1942	1964	70.5	65.6	75.3	+4.3	−1.6	+10.2	342
anes	Born 1927 to 1942	1968	50.4	44.5	56.2	+6.0	−1.0	+13.0	284
anes	Born 1927 to 1942	1972	34.8	30.3	39.2	−1.4	−6.6	+3.8	446
anes	Born 1927 to 1942	1976	47.2	41.9	52.6	−5.3	−11.5	+1.0	351
anes	Born 1927 to 1942	1980	38.4	32.0	44.8	−7.2	−14.7	+0.2	224
anes	Born 1927 to 1942	1984	40.4	35.0	45.8	−1.8	−8.0	+4.4	319
anes	Born 1927 to 1942	1988	48.9	43.0	54.8	+2.3	−4.4	+9.1	276
anes	Born 1927 to 1942	1992	56.0	50.3	61.8	−3.2	−9.6	+3.3	289
anes	Born 1927 to 1942	1996	55.9	49.0	62.9	−3.1	−11.0	+4.8	230
anes	Born 1927 to 1942	2000	48.4	41.2	55.6	−4.7	−12.8	+3.4	226
anes	Born 1927 to 1942	2004	50.5	42.3	58.8	+0.9	−8.4	+10.1	170
anes	Born 1927 to 1942	2008	41.2	33.1	49.2	−16.4	−25.1	−7.7	224
anes	Born 1927 to 1942	2012	43.8	38.1	49.4	−11.2	−17.3	−5.2	520
anes	Born 1927 to 1942	2016	40.9	33.4	48.3	−13.3	−21.1	−5.4	256
anes	Born 1927 to 1942	2020	47.5	40.9	54.2	−9.2	−16.1	−2.3	415
anes	Born 1927 to 1942	2024	59.0	49.3	68.6	+4.6	−5.3	+14.6	204
anes	Born 1943 to 1958	1972	47.4	42.5	52.3	+15.6	+10.1	+21.2	403
anes	Born 1943 to 1958	1976	53.0	47.8	58.1	+2.7	−3.4	+8.8	378
anes	Born 1943 to 1958	1980	41.3	35.5	47.1	−3.6	−10.7	+3.5	276
anes	Born 1943 to 1958	1984	41.0	36.8	45.2	−1.3	−6.7	+4.1	529
anes	Born 1943 to 1958	1988	47.0	42.4	51.6	−0.2	−6.0	+5.7	449
anes	Born 1943 to 1958	1992	58.5	53.9	63.0	−0.1	−5.6	+5.5	453
anes	Born 1943 to 1958	1996	58.0	52.2	63.9	−0.5	−7.7	+6.6	336
anes	Born 1943 to 1958	2000	53.3	47.8	58.8	+1.6	−5.3	+8.4	380
anes	Born 1943 to 1958	2004	44.0	37.3	50.7	−8.3	−16.4	−0.2	259
anes	Born 1943 to 1958	2008	53.5	47.8	59.3	−2.2	−9.0	+4.7	451
anes	Born 1943 to 1958	2012	50.6	47.2	54.1	−4.3	−8.5	0.0	1,481
anes	Born 1943 to 1958	2016	48.1	44.0	52.2	−6.8	−11.8	−1.8	802
anes	Born 1943 to 1958	2020	53.9	50.7	57.1	−3.1	−6.9	+0.8	1,835
anes	Born 1943 to 1958	2024	56.7	52.7	60.7	+2.7	−2.1	+7.5	1,155
anes	Born 1959 to 1974	1984	42.4	34.5	50.3	+0.6	−7.7	+9.0	151
anes	Born 1959 to 1974	1988	48.3	40.9	55.7	+1.4	−6.6	+9.4	176
anes	Born 1959 to 1974	1992	58.5	53.1	63.8	−0.1	−6.2	+6.1	330
anes	Born 1959 to 1974	1996	57.6	51.0	64.2	−1.1	−8.8	+6.6	263
anes	Born 1959 to 1974	2000	46.5	40.6	52.4	−8.2	−15.2	−1.1	328
anes	Born 1959 to 1974	2004	45.2	38.0	52.4	−6.5	−14.9	+2.0	211
anes	Born 1959 to 1974	2008	55.7	50.0	61.3	+0.8	−6.0	+7.6	462
anes	Born 1959 to 1974	2012	53.9	50.1	57.7	+0.4	−4.1	+4.9	1,171
anes	Born 1959 to 1974	2016	49.8	45.3	54.2	−4.4	−9.7	+0.8	664
anes	Born 1959 to 1974	2020	50.2	46.9	53.6	−8.5	−12.4	−4.5	1,561
anes	Born 1959 to 1974	2024	50.6	46.4	54.8	−5.5	−10.5	−0.5	1,061
anes	Born 1975 to 1990	2004	66.0	57.3	74.7	+19.7	+10.1	+29.3	137
anes	Born 1975 to 1990	2008	64.9	58.5	71.4	+13.1	+5.7	+20.4	337
anes	Born 1975 to 1990	2012	60.0	55.5	64.6	+8.5	+3.4	+13.5	827
anes	Born 1975 to 1990	2016	62.8	58.2	67.4	+12.7	+7.4	+18.1	604
anes	Born 1975 to 1990	2020	58.4	55.1	61.8	+2.9	−1.0	+6.9	1,454
anes	Born 1975 to 1990	2024	55.6	51.3	60.0	+1.5	−3.7	+6.6	964
anes	Born 1991 or later	2016	62.9	54.2	71.6	+11.2	+2.1	+20.2	177
anes	Born 1991 or later	2020	69.6	64.3	74.9	+15.9	+10.4	+21.5	573
anes	Born 1991 or later	2024	55.1	49.0	61.1	+0.7	−5.9	+7.2	452
ces	Born 1927 to 1942	2008	42.2	40.3	44.0	−13.8	−15.8	−11.7	3,830
ces	Born 1927 to 1942	2012	40.7	38.9	42.5	−13.8	−15.8	−11.8	5,912
ces	Born 1927 to 1942	2016	38.0	35.6	40.5	−14.1	−16.7	−11.6	3,561
ces	Born 1927 to 1942	2020	36.8	34.2	39.4	−16.6	−19.3	−14.0	2,320
ces	Born 1927 to 1942	2024	35.4	31.8	39.0	−13.9	−17.5	−10.2	1,150
ces	Born 1943 to 1958	2008	50.8	49.5	52.1	−4.3	−5.9	−2.7	7,691
ces	Born 1943 to 1958	2012	49.2	48.2	50.2	−5.9	−7.3	−4.4	17,779
ces	Born 1943 to 1958	2016	46.4	45.2	47.5	−6.9	−8.3	−5.5	13,874
ces	Born 1943 to 1958	2020	48.1	46.9	49.3	−6.4	−7.8	−5.0	12,855
ces	Born 1943 to 1958	2024	46.3	45.1	47.6	−3.5	−5.1	−2.0	12,790
ces	Born 1959 to 1974	2008	52.7	51.4	54.1	−1.7	−3.3	0.0	7,281
ces	Born 1959 to 1974	2012	53.4	51.9	54.8	+0.4	−1.3	+2.1	8,300
ces	Born 1959 to 1974	2016	48.2	47.0	49.3	−3.9	−5.3	−2.5	12,150
ces	Born 1959 to 1974	2020	48.9	47.8	49.9	−5.3	−6.6	−4.0	13,938
ces	Born 1959 to 1974	2024	42.9	41.7	44.1	−9.0	−10.5	−7.5	15,336
ces	Born 1975 to 1990	2008	66.3	64.6	68.0	+16.6	+14.7	+18.5	4,555
ces	Born 1975 to 1990	2012	62.5	60.6	64.4	+12.4	+10.3	+14.4	4,875
ces	Born 1975 to 1990	2016	60.3	59.0	61.6	+12.2	+10.7	+13.7	9,329
ces	Born 1975 to 1990	2020	61.3	60.1	62.5	+11.3	+9.9	+12.7	10,393
ces	Born 1975 to 1990	2024	54.6	53.0	56.2	+7.5	+5.7	+9.3	8,460
ces	Born 1991 or later	2012	58.8	53.8	63.9	+6.0	+0.9	+11.2	758
ces	Born 1991 or later	2016	67.7	65.0	70.4	+18.0	+15.2	+20.8	1,925
ces	Born 1991 or later	2020	67.8	65.9	69.7	+16.9	+14.8	+18.9	4,360
ces	Born 1991 or later	2024	59.0	56.5	61.6	+11.9	+9.3	+14.6	4,272

The two colored lines start above the zero line, which marks the share among all other voters in the same election, and end near it in 2024. The grey lines are the other cohorts, and the one born 1927 to 1942 runs below zero from 2008 to 2020. A cohort's first points include only its members old enough to vote, and the bands are 95% intervals. The other buttons show the Democratic shares themselves and the CES. Values in Table 5.

Note: Cohorts are the 16-year birth groups of the ANES cumulative file, and the CES uses the same groups from reported birth year. Cohort cells include every voter with a known cohort, whether or not the age is known. A cell is plotted only when it has 100 or more respondents and a Kish effective sample size (the sample size after weighting) of 100 or more, the floor of this chapter. A blank cell leaves a gap in the line.Note: The comparison group is every other voter in the same election with a known cohort, so the cohort and the comparison group are different respondents. The measure removes anything that moves all voters together in an election, and it does not remove the effect of age or the changing make-up of the comparison group. The CES is an opt-in online panel, so its intervals describe sampling variation among panel members and leave out how respondents joined the panel.Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, presidential elections 1952-2024; weighted (post-election weight where the file has one, otherwise VCF0009z); two-party presidential voters; CES view: CES Cumulative File, presidential elections 2008-2024; weighted (weight_cumulative); two-party presidential voters

A cohort that is more Democratic than other voters when young and closer to them when older fits an age effect, in which people come to resemble other voters as they age. It fits equally well a cohort effect that fades, or an election in which the young moved more than the old. It also fits a gap between the first cell, which holds only the cohort's members old enough to vote, and the last cell, which holds all of them. Following a cohort holds birth year fixed and leaves age and the election mixed, so the lines cannot rank these accounts.

Three comparisons, and what each one can and cannot say

The surveys that measure the gap record each voter's age and the year of the election, and the two together already fix the year of birth. That arithmetic is why no repeated survey can separate age, election and birth cohort without an assumption [1] [2]. A repeated survey offers three comparisons, and each holds one thing fixed. Comparing age groups inside one election holds the election fixed and mixes age with birth cohort; it is what a single election's poll shows. Comparing voters of one age across elections holds age fixed and mixes the election with birth cohort, because the voters under thirty in two elections were born in different years. It asks whether the young of one decade differ from the young of the last. Following a cohort holds birth year fixed and mixes age with the election; it is the comparison a generation label invites. Each comparison is the sum of two of the three effects, and none isolates one. Figure 3 estimates all three as straight-line slopes, in points of Democratic vote share per decade, on voters aged eighteen to seventy-three. In the CES, one decade of age within an election goes with −4.3 points, one decade of time at a fixed age with −1.2, and one decade along a cohort with −5.2.

Figure 3

In the CES the vote moved by −4.3 points per decade of age within an election, −1.2 per decade at a fixed age and −5.2 along a cohort

Change in the Democratic share of the two-party vote per decade, three straight-line comparisons, voters aged 18 to 73, ANES 1952 to 2024 and CES 2008 to 2024; 95% intervals (HC3)

ANES 1952 to 2024
CES 2008 to 2024

Show data

Data for In the CES the vote moved by −4.3 points per decade of age within an election, −1.2 per decade at a fixed age and −5.2 along a cohort
Comparison	Survey	Change (points per decade)	95% interval low	95% interval high	Voters aged 18 to 73
One decade older, same election (age and birth year)	ANES 1952 to 2024	−2.2	−2.6	−1.7	30,571
One decade older, same election (age and birth year)	CES 2008 to 2024	−4.3	−4.6	−4.1	169,858
One decade later, same age (election and birth year)	ANES 1952 to 2024	+1.6	+1.3	+1.9	30,571
One decade later, same age (election and birth year)	CES 2008 to 2024	−1.2	−1.8	−0.5	169,858
One decade later, same birth cohort (age and election)	ANES 1952 to 2024	+0.3	−0.3	+0.8	30,571
One decade later, same birth cohort (age and election)	CES 2008 to 2024	−5.2	−5.9	−4.6	169,858

Read the three colored CES dots against the zero line. All three are to its left, and the same-cohort slope is the farthest from zero. The grey dots are the ANES, where the same-cohort slope's interval includes zero. Each dot is a weighted regression coefficient in points per decade, and the whiskers are 95% intervals. Values in Table 8.

Note: Cross-section: weighted regression of the 0/1 Democratic vote on age in decades with a fixed effect for each election. Same age: regression on election year in decades with a fixed effect for each 4-year age band. Same cohort: regression on election year in decades with a fixed effect for each 4-year birth band. Voters aged 18 to 73 only, so the age and birth bands share one grid.Note: The CES is an opt-in online panel, so its intervals describe sampling variation among panel members and leave out how respondents joined the panel.Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, presidential elections 1952-2024; weighted (post-election weight where the file has one, otherwise VCF0009z); two-party presidential voters; CES Cumulative File, presidential elections 2008-2024; weighted (weight_cumulative); two-party presidential voters; weighted regression coefficients

The three slopes turn into an age effect only with an assumption. If birth cohorts carry no trend, the age effect is the first slope. If elections carry no trend, it is the third. If age carries no trend, the age effect is zero, and the whole difference between older and younger voters inside an election is a difference between birth cohorts. In the CES the age effect therefore runs between −5.2 points per decade and zero, depending on which assumption holds, and the data do not choose among them. A profile that repeats in election after election, with older voters less Democratic than younger ones, is consistent with people changing as they age. It is equally consistent with cohorts that keep their level while one replaces another. The chapter follows Fosse and Winship in reporting the range rather than adding a restriction to reach one number [3].

What these surveys cannot tell you

The surveys interview different people in each election, so a cohort line follows no one. It mixes people who changed, people who joined or left the sample, and the effects of age and election. Every share describes voters who reported a two-party vote, so an age gap here says nothing about the adults who did not vote; Chapter 3.1, Turnout reports turnout by age. No official count gives the vote by age group, so which survey is closer within an age group cannot be tested. The two explanations the report offers for the surveys' disagreement about 2024, who is matched to voter records and interview mode, cannot be settled with these files.

Go deeper

The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
Tables: every figure of the report as a table.

Data sources

ANES Cumulative Data FileCumulative Data File: presidential vote, party identification, age and birth cohort, presidential elections 1952-2024Years: 1948-2024 (33 study years; even years only after 2004; no 2006, 2010 or 2014 study) · Weights: post-election weight where available, otherwise VCF0009z; weight_ftf and weight_web for interview-mode estimates · License: Free download after accepting the ANES terms of use; cite the release.
Cooperative Election StudyCumulative Common Content: presidential vote 2008-2024 and party identification 2006-2024Years: 2006-2024 (every year; self-reported turnout is available in the 10 even years) · Weights: weight_cumulative; weight_post (2012, 2016, 2020) and vvweight for sensitivity rows · License: See the provider's terms of use.
State presidential returnsState presidential returns 1976-2024, used only for the certified national two-party shareYears: 1976-2024 (13 elections) · Weights: none (full counts) · License: See the provider's terms of use.

All data sources

References

Glenn, Norval D. (1976). Cohort Analysts' Futile Quest: Statistical Attempts to Separate Age, Period and Cohort Effects. American Sociological Review 41(5): 900-904. doi:10.2307/2094738
Mason, Karen Oppenheim; Mason, William M.; Winsborough, H. H.; Poole, W. Kenneth (1973). Some Methodological Issues in Cohort Analysis of Archival Data. American Sociological Review 38(2): 242-258. doi:10.2307/2094398
Fosse, Ethan; Winship, Christopher (2019). Analyzing Age-Period-Cohort Data: A Review and Critique. Annual Review of Sociology 45: 467-492. doi:10.1146/annurev-soc-073018-022616

How to cite

@misc{singh2026ageandgeneration,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Age and generation},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/age-and-generation},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 3 October 2026.}
}