Chapter 8.3
Party and place
Across 12 policy issues in 2013 to 2021, Democrats and Republicans in the same kind of county differ by 43.1 points, and one party's members in deep-blue and deep-red counties differ by 5.6 points.
DraftFigures and numbers may change as the analysis is rebuilt.what is still being checked
Still open: the place gap is measured for the county only, and a version at the ZIP code level has not been built. Support by county margin is drawn for a subset of the issues, without an issue selector.
In deep-red counties, those the Republican candidate carried by 2020 points of two-party marginEstimanda county is deep red or deep blue at this margin or moreWeightsnone (count)Populationcounty classificationPeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was askedSourceCooperative Election Study pointsPercentage pointThe unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused. or more of the two-party vote in the most recent presidential election, 25.6%25.6% percent of respondents supporting repeal of the ACAEstimandweighted share supporting repeal; state-cluster bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 23.8% to 27.0%n22,175Weightsweight_cumulative (CES cumulative weight; each survey year carries the same total weight)PopulationDemocrats in deep-red countiesPeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study of Democrats and 83.1%83.1% percent of respondents supporting repeal of the ACAEstimandweighted share supporting repeal; state-cluster bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 82.0% to 84.1%n30,100Weightsweight_cumulative (CES cumulative weight; each survey year carries the same total weight)PopulationRepublicans in deep-red countiesPeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study of Republicans supported repealing the Affordable Care Act (ACA) when the Cooperative Election Study (CES) asked them between 2013 and 2021.The cumulative CES file codes the 2014 answers to the repeal question in the opposite direction from the other years. They are reversed here, and the report says what changes if they are dropped instead. In deep-blue counties the shares were 21.7%21.7% percent of respondents supporting repeal of the ACAEstimandweighted share supporting repeal; state-cluster bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 19.7% to 23.5%n49,379Weightsweight_cumulative (CES cumulative weight; each survey year carries the same total weight)PopulationDemocrats in deep-blue countiesPeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study among Democrats and 78.6%78.6% percent of respondents supporting repeal of the ACAEstimandweighted share supporting repeal; state-cluster bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 77.5% to 80.0%n16,459Weightsweight_cumulative (CES cumulative weight; each survey year carries the same total weight)PopulationRepublicans in deep-blue countiesPeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study among Republicans. On this question, Democrats in deep-red counties are closer to Democrats in deep-blue counties than to Republicans in deep-red counties, and Republicans in deep-blue counties are closer to Republicans in deep-red counties than to Democrats in deep-blue counties. The survey records the county each respondent lives in and not who lives beside whom, so the comparison is between partisans in the same kind of county and partisans of the same party in opposite kinds of county.
The party gap exceeds the place gap on every issue
The chapter puts the same two comparisons on 1212 policy questionsEstimandcount of issuesWeightsnone (count)Populationthe CES policy questions used in the chapterPeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was askedSourceCooperative Election Study policy questions the CES asked between 2013 and 2021, on guns, immigration, abortion, marriage, health care and climate. Each is a yes-or-no question, coded so that the share compared is the share taking the side Democrats take more often, such as support for an assault weapons ban or opposition to repealing the ACA. The party gap on an issue is the difference in that share between Democrats and Republicans who live in the same kind of county, averaged over deep-red and deep-blue counties. The place gap is the difference between members of one party who live in deep-blue counties and those who live in deep-red counties, averaged over the two parties. Averaged over the issues, the party gap is 43.143.1 points (difference in the share taking the Democratic side, on a 0 to 100 scale)Estimandaverage over the issues of the party gap: Democratic minus Republican share taking the Democratic side, averaged over deep-red and deep-blue countiesInterval95% CI 41.8 to 44.5n118,638Weightsweight_cumulative (CES cumulative weight; each survey year carries the same total weight)PopulationDemocrats and Republicans (three-point party identification, leaners excluded) in counties with a two-party presidential margin of 20 points or morePeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was askedSourceCooperative Election Study points and the place gap is 5.65.6 points (difference in the share taking the Democratic side, on a 0 to 100 scale)Estimandaverage over the issues of the place gap: deep-blue minus deep-red county share taking the Democratic side, averaged over Democrats and RepublicansInterval95% CI 4.7 to 6.6n118,638Weightsweight_cumulative (CES cumulative weight; each survey year carries the same total weight)PopulationDemocrats and Republicans (three-point party identification, leaners excluded) in counties with a two-party presidential margin of 20 points or morePeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was askedSourceCooperative Election Study points. The party gap is the larger of the two on every issue, and on no issue do the two intervals touch. The average party gap divided by the average place gap is 7.67.6 ratio (party gap divided by place gap)Estimandaverage party gap divided by average place gapInterval95% CI 6.4 to 9.3n118,638Weightsweight_cumulative (CES cumulative weight; each survey year carries the same total weight)PopulationDemocrats and Republicans (three-point party identification, leaners excluded) in counties with a two-party presidential margin of 20 points or morePeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was askedSourceCooperative Election Study. The ratio varies by issue, from legal gay marriage at the low end to spending on a border wall at the high end. The place gap is small, and it is not zero. Its interval lies above zero on every issue.
Figure 1
On every issue the gap between parties is larger than the gap between deep-red and deep-blue counties
Gap in the share taking the Democratic side, in points, by issue; Democrats and Republicans in deep counties; CES survey years 2013 to 2021
- Place gap
- Party gap
Show data
| Issue | Democratic side of the question | Survey years | Party gap | Party gap, low | Party gap, high | Place gap | Place gap, low | Place gap, high | Ratio | Smallest group, n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assault weapons ban | Support an assault weapons ban | 2013 to 2021 | 41.9 | 40.3 | 43.8 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 16,440 |
| Background checks | Support universal background checks for gun buyers | 2013 to 2021, not 2020 | 13.3 | 12.0 | 14.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 6.5 | 13,375 |
| Concealed carry | Oppose easier concealed carry | 2013 to 2021 | 38.8 | 37.1 | 40.7 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 16,452 |
| Border security | Oppose more spending on border security | 2013 to 2021, not 2018 | 40.2 | 38.6 | 42.0 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 13,428 |
| Path to legal status | Support a path to legal status for undocumented immigrants | 2013 to 2021, not 2018 | 38.7 | 36.9 | 40.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 13,422 |
| Border wall | Oppose spending on a border wall | 2017 to 2021, not 2019 | 64.1 | 62.5 | 65.8 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 15.5 | 8,257 |
| Gay marriage | Support legal gay marriage | 2013 to 2016 | 36.4 | 33.6 | 39.3 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 13.7 | 3.6 | 7,161 |
| Repeal the ACA | Oppose repealing the Affordable Care Act | 2013 to 2021 | 57.2 | 55.8 | 58.8 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 13.7 | 16,459 |
| EPA regulates CO2 | Support letting the EPA regulate carbon dioxide | 2014 to 2021 | 44.4 | 42.3 | 46.5 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 15,459 |
| Abortion legal | Support always allowing abortion as a matter of choice | 2014 to 2021 | 46.5 | 44.7 | 48.7 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 14.6 | 3.9 | 15,818 |
| Medicare for All | Support Medicare for All | 2018 to 2021 | 51.3 | 49.3 | 53.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 6.4 | 12.1 | 8,385 |
| Cut immigration | Oppose cutting legal immigration by half | 2018 to 2020 | 44.2 | 42.6 | 45.7 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 7,157 |
In every row the solid dot, the party gap, sits to the right of the open dot, the place gap, and the two whiskers never touch. The two colored rows are the issues this essay discusses: repeal of the ACA, from the opening, and abortion, which has the largest place gap of any issue at 12.012.0 points (difference in the share taking the Democratic side, on a 0 to 100 scale)Estimandlargest place gap over the issues (abortion)Interval95% CI 9.2 to 14.6n113,602Weightsweight_cumulative (CES cumulative weight; each survey year carries the same total weight)PopulationDemocrats and Republicans (three-point party identification, leaners excluded) in counties with a two-party presidential margin of 20 points or morePeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was askedSourceCooperative Election Study points. Rows are sorted by party gap, and the whiskers are 95% intervals. Values in Table 1.
How the two gaps are measured
The data are CES interviews from 2013 to 2021, an online survey. Each respondent is matched to their county and to that county's two-party marginCounty two-party marginThe Democratic vote minus the Republican vote, divided by the sum of the two, so a positive value is a Democratic lead. Votes for other candidates are left out. in the most recent presidential election, counting the election of the interview year. The two gaps are computed from the Democrats and Republicans among them who live in a deep county, about 120,000118,638 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents with a county margin and a party, any issueWeightsnone (count)PopulationDemocrats and Republicans (three-point party identification, leaners excluded) in counties with a two-party presidential margin of 20 points or morePeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was askedSourceCooperative Election Study respondents. Democrats and Republicans are defined by the three-point party question, so independents who lean toward a party belong to neither group. Every estimate uses survey weightsSurvey weightsNumbers that scale each respondent so the sample matches the population on known traits such as age, race, education and region. A weighted average counts a respondent with a large weight for more than one with a small weight., and the intervals come from resampling whole states rather than respondents, because people in one state share a political environment. The issues were asked in different years, so the averages combine periods. The qualification that matters is in the definitions. A deep county is one at or beyond the cutoff above, and a stricter cutoff compares more extreme places and gives a larger place gap. The report also adjusts the place gaps for education, race, age, gender and state, so that the comparison is between respondents who resemble each other or live in the same state. Adjusting for demographics alone leaves 1515 party by issue combinationsEstimandcount of combinations, model with demographics onlyWeightsnone (count)Populationadjusted place gaps smaller than the raw gapPeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was askedSourceCooperative Election Study of the 2424 party by issue combinationsEstimandcount of combinationsWeightsnone (count)PopulationDemocrats and Republicans on each issuePeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was askedSourceCooperative Election Study gaps smaller than the raw gap, and adding state leaves 2222 party by issue combinationsEstimandcount of combinations, model with demographics and state fixed effectsWeightsnone (count)Populationadjusted place gaps smaller than the raw gapPeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was askedSourceCooperative Election Study smaller. Each of these choices defines which respondents are compared. Under every one of them the place gap is a difference between people who live in different places. It is not an estimate of what living there does to a person, since people choose where to live. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.
Within a party, support moves with the county margin
The deep-county comparison uses only the two ends of the range of counties. Figure 2 uses every county, grouped into seven bins by two-party margin, and follows support within each party across the bins for the issues in its panels. The two party lines stay far apart in every bin. Within each party, though, the lines are not flat. In all but one of them, the change from the most Republican bin to the most Democratic bin is toward the Democratic side of the issue, with an interval that excludes zero. The exception is Republican support for a path to legal status, where the interval includes zero.
On the assault weapons ban, Republican support rises from 36.5%36.5% percent of respondents supportingEstimandweighted share supporting the policy; state-cluster bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 34.5% to 38.6%n14,432Weightsweight_cumulative (CES cumulative weight; each survey year carries the same total weight)PopulationRepublicans in the most Republican bin of countiesPeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study in the most Republican bin to 49.0%49.0% percent of respondents supportingEstimandweighted share supporting the policy; state-cluster bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 44.8% to 53.4%n6,811Weightsweight_cumulative (CES cumulative weight; each survey year carries the same total weight)PopulationRepublicans in the most Democratic bin of countiesPeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021SourceCooperative Election Study in the most Democratic bin, and Democratic support rises as well. Republicans in Democratic counties support a ban more often than Republicans in Republican counties, and the change is shallow next to the gap between the parties on the same issue. The two largest changes among all the lines are both Republican, on abortion and on legal gay marriage. These are also the issues with the largest place gaps in Figure 1, so place goes with opinion more on these questions than on the others.
Figure 2
Within each party, support changes less across county margins than it differs between the parties
Share supporting the policy (%) by party and two-party margin of the respondent's county, seven bins of counties; five issues; CES survey years 2013 to 2021
- Democrats
- Republicans
County two-party margin (points, Democratic minus Republican)
Show data
| bin | conf_high | conf_low | estimate | issue | margin | n | party |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below -40 | 83.49 | 78.63 | 81.16 | Assault weapons ban | −53.35 | 8,553 | Democrats |
| -40 to -20 | 84.61 | 81.24 | 83.00 | Assault weapons ban | −29.09 | 13,631 | Democrats |
| -20 to -5 | 86.74 | 82.80 | 84.81 | Assault weapons ban | −12.70 | 13,578 | Democrats |
| -5 to 5 | 87.03 | 82.65 | 84.91 | Assault weapons ban | 0.112 | 13,026 | Democrats |
| 5 to 20 | 87.40 | 85.78 | 86.56 | Assault weapons ban | 12.20 | 25,300 | Democrats |
| 20 to 40 | 88.29 | 85.24 | 86.68 | Assault weapons ban | 28.48 | 21,675 | Democrats |
| Above 40 | 88.59 | 86.32 | 87.29 | Assault weapons ban | 56.26 | 27,716 | Democrats |
| Below -40 | 38.65 | 34.48 | 36.47 | Assault weapons ban | −53.35 | 14,432 | Republicans |
| -40 to -20 | 40.55 | 36.62 | 38.73 | Assault weapons ban | −29.09 | 15,619 | Republicans |
| -20 to -5 | 42.39 | 37.62 | 40.22 | Assault weapons ban | −12.70 | 11,652 | Republicans |
| -5 to 5 | 43.05 | 37.73 | 40.29 | Assault weapons ban | 0.112 | 9,253 | Republicans |
| 5 to 20 | 45.48 | 40.82 | 43.35 | Assault weapons ban | 12.20 | 14,228 | Republicans |
| 20 to 40 | 48.90 | 44.40 | 46.96 | Assault weapons ban | 28.48 | 9,629 | Republicans |
| Above 40 | 53.43 | 44.84 | 49.04 | Assault weapons ban | 56.26 | 6,811 | Republicans |
| Below -40 | 75.61 | 69.08 | 72.62 | Path to legal status | −53.35 | 6,731 | Democrats |
| -40 to -20 | 74.12 | 70.02 | 72.14 | Path to legal status | −29.09 | 10,838 | Democrats |
| -20 to -5 | 74.83 | 70.90 | 72.89 | Path to legal status | −12.70 | 11,500 | Democrats |
| -5 to 5 | 75.21 | 70.21 | 72.70 | Path to legal status | 0.112 | 10,868 | Democrats |
| 5 to 20 | 75.95 | 73.97 | 74.97 | Path to legal status | 12.20 | 21,339 | Democrats |
| 20 to 40 | 78.10 | 74.79 | 76.47 | Path to legal status | 28.48 | 18,012 | Democrats |
| Above 40 | 79.18 | 76.62 | 77.95 | Path to legal status | 56.26 | 23,266 | Democrats |
| Below -40 | 36.16 | 32.90 | 34.40 | Path to legal status | −53.35 | 11,088 | Republicans |
| -40 to -20 | 36.32 | 33.01 | 34.63 | Path to legal status | −29.09 | 12,294 | Republicans |
| -20 to -5 | 35.04 | 32.07 | 33.68 | Path to legal status | −12.70 | 9,881 | Republicans |
| -5 to 5 | 37.36 | 33.83 | 35.49 | Path to legal status | 0.112 | 7,640 | Republicans |
| 5 to 20 | 37.94 | 32.68 | 35.41 | Path to legal status | 12.20 | 11,721 | Republicans |
| 20 to 40 | 39.71 | 35.64 | 37.72 | Path to legal status | 28.48 | 7,837 | Republicans |
| Above 40 | 42.74 | 34.03 | 37.53 | Path to legal status | 56.26 | 5,585 | Republicans |
| Below -40 | 29.34 | 25.13 | 27.44 | Repeal the ACA (support for repeal) | −53.35 | 8,556 | Democrats |
| -40 to -20 | 26.22 | 22.46 | 24.38 | Repeal the ACA (support for repeal) | −29.09 | 13,619 | Democrats |
| -20 to -5 | 25.96 | 22.44 | 24.14 | Repeal the ACA (support for repeal) | −12.70 | 13,555 | Democrats |
| -5 to 5 | 24.41 | 21.30 | 22.93 | Repeal the ACA (support for repeal) | 0.112 | 13,014 | Democrats |
| 5 to 20 | 23.21 | 19.73 | 21.69 | Repeal the ACA (support for repeal) | 12.20 | 25,277 | Democrats |
| 20 to 40 | 24.37 | 19.24 | 21.95 | Repeal the ACA (support for repeal) | 28.48 | 21,665 | Democrats |
| Above 40 | 23.79 | 18.73 | 21.58 | Repeal the ACA (support for repeal) | 56.26 | 27,714 | Democrats |
| Below -40 | 83.72 | 80.90 | 82.42 | Repeal the ACA (support for repeal) | −53.35 | 14,470 | Republicans |
| -40 to -20 | 84.83 | 82.53 | 83.71 | Repeal the ACA (support for repeal) | −29.09 | 15,630 | Republicans |
| -20 to -5 | 86.79 | 84.59 | 85.73 | Repeal the ACA (support for repeal) | −12.70 | 11,652 | Republicans |
| -5 to 5 | 84.54 | 82.01 | 83.16 | Repeal the ACA (support for repeal) | 0.112 | 9,251 | Republicans |
| 5 to 20 | 83.07 | 80.21 | 81.47 | Repeal the ACA (support for repeal) | 12.20 | 14,220 | Republicans |
| 20 to 40 | 80.89 | 77.95 | 79.42 | Repeal the ACA (support for repeal) | 28.48 | 9,633 | Republicans |
| Above 40 | 79.84 | 76.22 | 77.40 | Repeal the ACA (support for repeal) | 56.26 | 6,826 | Republicans |
| Below -40 | 73.89 | 66.74 | 70.37 | Abortion legal | −53.35 | 8,255 | Democrats |
| -40 to -20 | 76.25 | 71.90 | 74.15 | Abortion legal | −29.09 | 13,015 | Democrats |
| -20 to -5 | 79.82 | 76.77 | 78.39 | Abortion legal | −12.70 | 12,696 | Democrats |
| -5 to 5 | 80.64 | 75.54 | 78.21 | Abortion legal | 0.112 | 12,287 | Democrats |
| 5 to 20 | 82.08 | 78.67 | 80.43 | Abortion legal | 12.20 | 24,028 | Democrats |
| 20 to 40 | 82.96 | 77.85 | 80.38 | Abortion legal | 28.48 | 20,804 | Democrats |
| Above 40 | 84.98 | 81.98 | 83.59 | Abortion legal | 56.26 | 26,619 | Democrats |
| Below -40 | 23.12 | 19.97 | 21.57 | Abortion legal | −53.35 | 14,058 | Republicans |
| -40 to -20 | 27.82 | 23.39 | 25.76 | Abortion legal | −29.09 | 15,033 | Republicans |
| -20 to -5 | 31.62 | 26.02 | 28.88 | Abortion legal | −12.70 | 10,900 | Republicans |
| -5 to 5 | 34.39 | 29.48 | 32.33 | Abortion legal | 0.112 | 8,783 | Republicans |
| 5 to 20 | 35.55 | 29.43 | 32.95 | Abortion legal | 12.20 | 13,516 | Republicans |
| 20 to 40 | 38.48 | 32.15 | 35.59 | Abortion legal | 28.48 | 9,260 | Republicans |
| Above 40 | 45.05 | 36.31 | 41.62 | Abortion legal | 56.26 | 6,558 | Republicans |
| Below -40 | 68.37 | 59.64 | 63.90 | Gay marriage | −53.35 | 3,353 | Democrats |
| -40 to -20 | 71.41 | 64.60 | 67.99 | Gay marriage | −29.09 | 6,079 | Democrats |
| -20 to -5 | 75.93 | 68.93 | 72.89 | Gay marriage | −12.70 | 6,730 | Democrats |
| -5 to 5 | 76.62 | 67.97 | 72.01 | Gay marriage | 0.112 | 6,378 | Democrats |
| 5 to 20 | 77.24 | 70.62 | 74.08 | Gay marriage | 12.20 | 11,861 | Democrats |
| 20 to 40 | 77.28 | 67.94 | 72.45 | Gay marriage | 28.48 | 9,357 | Democrats |
| Above 40 | 79.15 | 70.81 | 75.20 | Gay marriage | 56.26 | 12,598 | Democrats |
| Below -40 | 27.81 | 22.79 | 25.22 | Gay marriage | −53.35 | 5,044 | Republicans |
| -40 to -20 | 31.00 | 26.70 | 28.98 | Gay marriage | −29.09 | 6,668 | Republicans |
| -20 to -5 | 35.05 | 28.89 | 31.87 | Gay marriage | −12.70 | 5,720 | Republicans |
| -5 to 5 | 39.46 | 33.00 | 36.45 | Gay marriage | 0.112 | 4,399 | Republicans |
| 5 to 20 | 40.11 | 34.02 | 37.51 | Gay marriage | 12.20 | 6,431 | Republicans |
| 20 to 40 | 41.78 | 35.92 | 38.96 | Gay marriage | 28.48 | 4,079 | Republicans |
| Above 40 | 45.50 | 35.94 | 42.18 | Gay marriage | 56.26 | 3,082 | Republicans |
Look first at the vertical distance between the solid blue line, Democrats, and the dashed red line, Republicans, in each panel, then at how little either line climbs from left to right. The horizontal axis is the county's two-party margin, from the most Republican counties on the left to the most Democratic on the right. Each point is a bin of counties placed at its average margin, and the bands are 95% intervals. The Republican lines on abortion and legal gay marriage climb most. The repeal panel plots support for repeal, so its Democratic line is the lower one. Values in Table 4.
Independents with no lean have larger place gaps
An independent here is a respondent at the middle of the seven-point party scale who named no party and leaned toward neither; the two groups of leanersPartisan leanerA respondent who first says they are independent but, when asked, says they lean toward one party. Most figures group leaners with the party they lean toward, and each chapter says which grouping it uses. are shown apart. Averaged over the issues, the place gap of independents with no lean is 9.29.2 points (difference in the share taking the Democratic side, on a 0 to 100 scale)Estimandaverage over the issues of the place gap among Independents with no leanInterval95% CI 7.4 to 10.7n118,638Weightsweight_cumulative (CES cumulative weight; each survey year carries the same total weight)PopulationIndependents who lean toward neither party (middle of the seven-point scale) in deep countiesPeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was askedSourceCooperative Election Study points. That is 3.5 (95% CI 1.9 to 5.0)3.5 points (difference in the share taking the Democratic side, on a 0 to 100 scale)Estimandaverage place gap of Independents with no lean minus the average place gap of Democrats and RepublicansInterval95% CI 1.9 to 5.0n118,638Weightsweight_cumulative (CES cumulative weight; each survey year carries the same total weight)PopulationIndependents with no lean, Democrats and Republicans in deep countiesPeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was askedSourceCooperative Election Study points more than the average for Democrats and Republicans together, and the interval lies above zero. In point estimates their place gap is larger than both partisan place gaps on 99 issuesEstimandcount of issues, point estimatesWeightsnone (count)Populationissues where the Independents' place gap exceeds both partisan gapsPeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was askedSourceCooperative Election Study of the 1212 policy questionsEstimandcount of issuesWeightsnone (count)Populationthe CES policy questions used in the chapterPeriodCES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was askedSourceCooperative Election Study issues. Among partisans, the Republican place gap is larger than the Democratic one on most issues, and the difference between the two parties' averages has an interval that includes zero.
Figure 3
The average place gap is larger among independents with no lean than among Democrats and Republicans
Place gap averaged over the issues, in points (deep-blue minus deep-red counties, share taking the Democratic side), by party group, with 95% intervals; CES survey years 2013 to 2021
Show data
| n | party_id | place_gap | place_gap_hi | place_gap_lo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9,432 | Democrats | 4.49 | 6.29 | 2.79 |
| 2,804 | Democratic leaners | 3.33 | 4.59 | 1.98 |
| 5,761 | Independents (no lean) | 9.18 | 10.70 | 7.37 |
| 2,783 | Republican leaners | 6.69 | 8.78 | 4.58 |
| 7,157 | Republicans | 6.78 | 8.47 | 5.00 |
The dot for independents with no lean sits farthest to the right, and the dot for Democratic leaners farthest to the left. Each dot is one party group's place gap averaged over the issues, with its 95% interval. The dashed line marks a place gap of zero. Values in Table 6.
What the gaps measure, and what they do not
Among Democrats and Republicans in deep counties, the share taking the Democratic side of a policy question differs more by party than by county on every issue. Within a party, that share is higher in deep-blue counties than in deep-red ones, and the place gap is larger on abortion and legal gay marriage than on any other issue. Followed across presidential cycles, with surveys back to 2006, the party gap rose on most of the issues, and where the place gap changed by more than sampling error, it fell. A check in the American National Election Studies, which record only the state, gives ratios of the same order of magnitude, with intervals too wide to say more. None of this is an estimate of what a party does to an opinion. Party identification and issue positions shape each other, and party has taken on other identities, so a Democrat and a Republican also differ in race, religion and much else [1]. Nor is the place gap an estimate of what a county does to a person. The respondents in deep-blue counties may differ from those in deep-red counties in ways that education, race, age and gender do not capture.
What these surveys cannot tell you
A cross-section cannot separate influence from selection. People choose where to live, and a 1984 survey in South Bend, Indiana found that people build discussion networks that match their own views, within the limits their surroundings set [2]. Mummolo and Nall ask why partisans do not sort by place more than they do [3]. Evidence on people who move can separate the two; Planned, Movers and opinion change (planned) takes it up. The county is one level of place, and a finer level, such as a neighborhood, could show larger place gaps. The ratio of the two gaps would change with a different set of issues. The policy questions end in 2021, so the chapter says nothing about later years.
Go deeper
- The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
- Tables: every figure of the report as a table.
- Neighborhoods: the explorer for this part.
Same question at another grain:
- Party and place
- Chapter 2.1, Cohort change in partisan sorting Individuals
- Planned, Composition and behavior in county change (planned) Places
Reading paths that include this chapter:
- The core argument in eight chapters
- A tour of the book, one chapter per part
- Start with the map
- Does place matter
Data sources
- Cooperative Election StudyCooperative Election Study cumulative common content, 2006-2021 policy items, party identification and county FIPSYears: 2006-2024 (every year; self-reported turnout is available in the 10 even years) · Weights: weight_cumulative · License: See the provider's terms of use.
- County election returnsCounty presidential returns 2004-2020 (repaired file), two-party marginYears: President 1868-2024 (40 elections); House and Senate 1990-2024 · Weights: none (full counts) · License: The Heideman file is CC BY 4.0 (doi:10.5281/zenodo.22976553), but the state records behind it keep their own terms, and the sites of Florida, Indiana, Colorado and Wisconsin restrict reuse.
- State presidential returnsState presidential returns 1976-2024, two-party marginYears: 1976-2024 (13 elections) · Weights: none (full counts) · License: See the provider's terms of use.
- ANES Cumulative Data FileANES Time Series Cumulative Data File, waves 2012-2024, state identifier, issue itemsYears: 1948-2024 (33 study years; even years only after 2004; no 2006, 2010 or 2014 study) · Weights: weight (VCF0009z) · License: Free download after accepting the ANES terms of use; cite the release.
References
- Mason, Lilliana (2018). Uncivil Agreement: How Politics Became Our Identity. University of Chicago Press. press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/U/bo27527354.html
- Huckfeldt, Robert; Sprague, John (1987). Networks in Context: The Social Flow of Political Information. American Political Science Review 81(4): 1197-1216. www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/networks-in-context-the-social-flow-of-political-information/393FFEC212ECE14C0E0F79715E086D60
- Mummolo, Jonathan; Nall, Clayton (2017). Why Partisans Do Not Sort: The Constraints on Political Segregation. The Journal of Politics 79(1): 45-59. doi:10.1086/687569
How to cite
@misc{singh2026partyandplace,
author = {Singh, Vishal},
title = {Party and place},
year = {2026},
url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/party-and-place},
note = {In The Public Mind. Published 30 September 2026.}
}