Volume 1Labels, sorting and partisan feeling

Party identification and ideological labels drew closer together in American surveys. The volume asks what the labels contain, in the United States and about 100 countries, how the alignment changed across birth cohorts, and how it differs from partisans' feelings toward the other party.

Volume 2Coalitions and political differences

Participation, group coalitions, issues and attitudes toward institutions and democracy, 1948 to 2024. Party gaps on these measures differ in size and timing, and some reverse with control of the presidency, so no single trend describes them.

Volume 3Votes, giving and places

Election returns, donor records and county data count different populations at different scales. The volume follows the vote from counties to precincts and down the ballot, compares donors with voters, and returns from places to the people who live in them.

Reading path

The core argument in eight chapters

8 chapters in reading order. A path is a way through the book that follows one question; every chapter also stands alone.

1
Party and ideology
Chapter 1.1 in Part I, Labels and beliefs
Among ANES respondents, the correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement rose from +0.32 in 1972 to +0.72 in 2024.
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2
Economic and cultural dimensions
Chapter 1.2 in Part I, Labels and beliefs
Among American adults, the correlation between an index of economic conservatism and an index of cultural conservatism rose from +0.10 in the 1984 ANES to +0.51 in 2024.
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3
Feelings toward the other party
Chapter 2.2 in Part II, Change and partisan feeling
Among ANES partisans, the average rating of the other party on the 0 to 100 feeling thermometer fell from 48.0 in 1978 to 20.6 in 2024.
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4
The income ladder
Chapter 3.5 in Part III, Participation and coalitions
In the CES the highest household-income bracket's Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote minus the lowest bracket's went from −9.1 points in 2008 to +5.7 in 2024.
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5
Left and right across countries
Chapter 1.3 in Part I, Labels and beliefs
The attitude that left-right self-placement follows most closely differs by country, and across countries surveyed in 2005 or later the median correlation on each of three attitudes lies between +0.07 and +0.09.
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6
Nationalization of the county vote
Chapter 6.1 in Part VI, Election results at different scales
Counties moved more nearly in step in 2020 to 2024 than in any other pair of presidential elections since 1868, with a vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings of 4.5 points against 5.0 in 2008 to 2012, the next lowest.
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7
Precincts within counties
Chapter 6.3 in Part VI, Election results at different scales
In 2024, 65.0% of two-party presidential votes in the sample were cast in precincts decided by 20 points or more, against 57.2% in counties decided by that margin.
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8
Party and place
Chapter 8.3 in Part VIII, Places and the people in them
Across 12 policy issues in 2013 to 2021, Democrats and Republicans in the same kind of county differ by 43.1 points, and one party's members in deep-blue and deep-red counties differ by 5.6 points.
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All chapters