Volume 1Labels, sorting and partisan feeling

Party identification and ideological labels drew closer together in American surveys. The volume asks what the labels contain, in the United States and about 100 countries, how the alignment changed across birth cohorts, and how it differs from partisans' feelings toward the other party.

Volume 2Coalitions and political differences

Participation, group coalitions, issues and attitudes toward institutions and democracy, 1948 to 2024. Party gaps on these measures differ in size and timing, and some reverse with control of the presidency, so no single trend describes them.

Volume 3Votes, giving and places

Election returns, donor records and county data count different populations at different scales. The volume follows the vote from counties to precincts and down the ballot, compares donors with voters, and returns from places to the people who live in them.

Volume 3: Votes, giving and places

Part VI

Election results at different scales

County swings moved more nearly in step in 2020 to 2024 than in any pair of presidential elections since 1868, while a rising share of votes is cast in counties far from the national result, and a county margin is an average over precincts that are often far more lopsided than the county.

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Counties can swing together from one election to the next while their results stay far apart. Chapter 6.1, Nationalization of the county vote compares how counties swung against the national swing, and Chapter 6.2, Distance from the national vote, 1868 to 2024 shows how swings that move in step can coexist with county results far from the national vote. A county margin is itself an average over precincts that can differ widely from it, so Chapter 6.3, Precincts within counties looks inside the county. Chapter 6.4, Down the ballot compares individual ticket splitting with county results without treating them as the same statistic. The early returns come from a restricted franchise, so a comparison with the earlier Southern electorate is not a comparison of equally enfranchised populations. County and precinct results describe places and not the people in them. The Electoral College and sorting by geographic scale are on the research agenda.

Explorer for this part: Elections, 1976 to 2024. States and counties by year: margins, swings and demographic lenses.

Chapters

6.1
Nationalization of the county vote
Counties moved more nearly in step in 2020 to 2024 than in any other pair of presidential elections since 1868, with a vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings of 4.5 points against 5.0 in 2008 to 2012, the next lowest.
DraftPlacescounty-returns
6.2
Distance from the national vote, 1868 to 2024
The share of two-party votes cast in counties at least 20 points from the national margin rose from 25.5% in 1976 to 56.5% in 2024.
DraftPlacescounty-returns
6.3
Precincts within counties
In 2024, 65.0% of two-party presidential votes in the sample were cast in precincts decided by 20 points or more, against 57.2% in counties decided by that margin.
DraftPlacesprecinct
6.4
Down the ballot
Among ANES voters who reported major-party votes for president and the House, 4.7% chose different parties in 2024, against 22.3% in 1992 and 29.5% in 1972.
DraftPlacesanescounty-returnsstate-returns

3 further questions for this part are on the research agenda.