The ideology of the donor pool

Counting donors rather than dollars, 11.8%11.8% percent of active reliable donorsEstimandshare of active reliable donors with a CFscore within the center bandn31,138Weightsnone (administrative records: every itemized donor and every scored candidate is counted)Populationreliable individual donors active in the cyclePeriod1980SourceDIME of the reliable individual donors in the Stanford DIME records had a CFscoreCFscoreA left-right position estimated from whom a donor gives to, or from who gives to a candidate. Negative values are left and positive values are right, and a donor keeps one score across all their giving. near zero in 1980, on a left-right scale estimated from their giving, and 1.2%1.2% percent of active reliable donorsEstimandshare of active reliable donors with a CFscore within the center bandn2,533,588Weightsnone (administrative records: every itemized donor and every scored candidate is counted)Populationreliable individual donors active in the cyclePeriod2024SourceDIME did in 2024. DIME assigns each donor one score for all of their giving, so the records cannot show any donor moving along the scale. The fall in the near-zero share can come only from donors who joined the pool and donors who left it, and the two can be counted separately.

The pool moved left and thinned near zero

A CFscore places a donor from the recipients they gave to, with negative scores on the left and positive scores on the right. Near zero in this chapter means within 0.250.25 CFscore units, distance from zeroEstimandhalf-width of the band around zero that counts as the centerWeightsnone (constant)Populationdefinition of the centerPeriodelection cycles 1980-2024SourceDIME of zero on either side. The scale has no natural unit. Candidates are placed on the same kind of scale from who gives to them. In 2024 the median Republican House or Senate candidate sat 2.312.31 CFscore unitsEstimandRepublican median minus Democratic median CFscoreWeightsnone (administrative records: every itemized donor and every scored candidate is counted)PopulationHouse and Senate candidates of the two major parties with a dynamic CFscorePeriod2024SourceDIME above the median Democratic candidate, so the band around zero is narrow next to the gap between the parties' candidates.

Figure 1 stacks the distribution of donor scores, one ridge per election cycle. In the early cycles most of the area lies right of zero, with a broad shoulder on the left and a shallow dip near zero. By 2024 the distribution has two peaks, a tall one left of zero and a smaller one right of zero, with little area near zero. A pool that was mostly right of zero in 1980 was mostly left of zero in 2024, and the near-zero share fell on both sides of zero. The change reaches donors who lean moderately left or right as well as those nearest zero.

Figure 1

The share of donors near zero fell and donors left of zero became the majority between 1980 and 2024

CFscores of reliable individual donors active in each election cycle, 1980-2024; a donor counts in every cycle in which they gave

DonorsDollars (each donor capped at $1 million)

Show data

Data for The share of donors near zero fell and donors left of zero became the majority between 1980 and 2024

Election cycle	Weighted by	CFscore (bin center)	Density
1980	Donors	−2.45	0.000
1980	Donors	−2.35	0.000
1980	Donors	−2.25	0.000
1980	Donors	−2.15	0.000
1980	Donors	−2.05	0.000
1980	Donors	−1.95	0.000
1980	Donors	−1.85	0.000
1980	Donors	−1.75	0.000
1980	Donors	−1.65	0.000
1980	Donors	−1.55	0.000
1980	Donors	−1.45	0.000
1980	Donors	−1.35	0.000
1980	Donors	−1.25	0.000
1980	Donors	−1.15	0.002
1980	Donors	−1.05	0.036
1980	Donors	−0.95	0.242
1980	Donors	−0.85	0.392
1980	Donors	−0.75	0.445
1980	Donors	−0.65	0.469
1980	Donors	−0.55	0.420
1980	Donors	−0.45	0.387
1980	Donors	−0.35	0.334
1980	Donors	−0.25	0.284
1980	Donors	−0.15	0.244
1980	Donors	−0.05	0.237
1980	Donors	0.05	0.240
1980	Donors	0.15	0.217
1980	Donors	0.25	0.225
1980	Donors	0.35	0.246
1980	Donors	0.45	0.258
1980	Donors	0.55	0.270
1980	Donors	0.65	0.319
1980	Donors	0.75	0.408
1980	Donors	0.85	0.478
1980	Donors	0.95	0.635
1980	Donors	1.05	0.877
1980	Donors	1.15	1.052
1980	Donors	1.25	0.907
1980	Donors	1.35	0.310
1980	Donors	1.45	0.058
1980	Donors	1.55	0.004
1980	Donors	1.65	0.001
1980	Donors	1.75	0.000
1980	Donors	1.85	0.000
1980	Donors	1.95	0.000
1980	Donors	2.05	0.000
1980	Donors	2.15	0.000
1980	Donors	2.25	0.000
1980	Donors	2.35	0.000
1980	Donors	2.45	0.000
1980	Dollars	−2.45	0.000
1980	Dollars	−2.35	0.000
1980	Dollars	−2.25	0.000
1980	Dollars	−2.15	0.000
1980	Dollars	−2.05	0.000
1980	Dollars	−1.95	0.000
1980	Dollars	−1.85	0.000
1980	Dollars	−1.75	0.000
1980	Dollars	−1.65	0.000
1980	Dollars	−1.55	0.000
1980	Dollars	−1.45	0.000
1980	Dollars	−1.35	0.000
1980	Dollars	−1.25	0.000
1980	Dollars	−1.15	0.001
1980	Dollars	−1.05	0.016
1980	Dollars	−0.95	0.162
1980	Dollars	−0.85	0.405
1980	Dollars	−0.75	0.482
1980	Dollars	−0.65	0.503
1980	Dollars	−0.55	0.445
1980	Dollars	−0.45	0.384
1980	Dollars	−0.35	0.345
1980	Dollars	−0.25	0.316
1980	Dollars	−0.15	0.258
1980	Dollars	−0.05	0.273
1980	Dollars	0.05	0.233
1980	Dollars	0.15	0.223
1980	Dollars	0.25	0.228
1980	Dollars	0.35	0.256
1980	Dollars	0.45	0.276
1980	Dollars	0.55	0.278
1980	Dollars	0.65	0.309
1980	Dollars	0.75	0.357
1980	Dollars	0.85	0.425
1980	Dollars	0.95	0.628
1980	Dollars	1.05	0.901
1980	Dollars	1.15	1.159
1980	Dollars	1.25	0.900
1980	Dollars	1.35	0.208
1980	Dollars	1.45	0.027
1980	Dollars	1.55	0.002
1980	Dollars	1.65	0.000
1980	Dollars	1.75	0.000
1980	Dollars	1.85	0.000
1980	Dollars	1.95	0.000
1980	Dollars	2.05	0.000
1980	Dollars	2.15	0.000
1980	Dollars	2.25	0.000
1980	Dollars	2.35	0.000
1980	Dollars	2.45	0.000
1982	Donors	−2.45	0.000
1982	Donors	−2.35	0.000
1982	Donors	−2.25	0.000
1982	Donors	−2.15	0.000
1982	Donors	−2.05	0.000
1982	Donors	−1.95	0.000
1982	Donors	−1.85	0.000
1982	Donors	−1.75	0.000
1982	Donors	−1.65	0.000
1982	Donors	−1.55	0.000
1982	Donors	−1.45	0.000
1982	Donors	−1.35	0.000
1982	Donors	−1.25	0.000
1982	Donors	−1.15	0.006
1982	Donors	−1.05	0.038
1982	Donors	−0.95	0.212
1982	Donors	−0.85	0.359
1982	Donors	−0.75	0.426
1982	Donors	−0.65	0.449
1982	Donors	−0.55	0.425
1982	Donors	−0.45	0.384
1982	Donors	−0.35	0.337
1982	Donors	−0.25	0.296
1982	Donors	−0.15	0.253
1982	Donors	−0.05	0.249
1982	Donors	0.05	0.258
1982	Donors	0.15	0.226
1982	Donors	0.25	0.223
1982	Donors	0.35	0.254
1982	Donors	0.45	0.258
1982	Donors	0.55	0.275
1982	Donors	0.65	0.335
1982	Donors	0.75	0.378
1982	Donors	0.85	0.461
1982	Donors	0.95	0.613
1982	Donors	1.05	0.873
1982	Donors	1.15	1.041
1982	Donors	1.25	1.010
1982	Donors	1.35	0.305
1982	Donors	1.45	0.048
1982	Donors	1.55	0.007
1982	Donors	1.65	0.000
1982	Donors	1.75	0.000
1982	Donors	1.85	0.000
1982	Donors	1.95	0.000
1982	Donors	2.05	0.000
1982	Donors	2.15	0.000
1982	Donors	2.25	0.000
1982	Donors	2.35	0.000
1982	Donors	2.45	0.000
1982	Dollars	−2.45	0.000
1982	Dollars	−2.35	0.000
1982	Dollars	−2.25	0.000
1982	Dollars	−2.15	0.000
1982	Dollars	−2.05	0.000
1982	Dollars	−1.95	0.000
1982	Dollars	−1.85	0.000
1982	Dollars	−1.75	0.000
1982	Dollars	−1.65	0.000
1982	Dollars	−1.55	0.000
1982	Dollars	−1.45	0.000
1982	Dollars	−1.35	0.000
1982	Dollars	−1.25	0.000
1982	Dollars	−1.15	0.004
1982	Dollars	−1.05	0.043
1982	Dollars	−0.95	0.165
1982	Dollars	−0.85	0.387
1982	Dollars	−0.75	0.458
1982	Dollars	−0.65	0.474
1982	Dollars	−0.55	0.373
1982	Dollars	−0.45	0.335
1982	Dollars	−0.35	0.292
1982	Dollars	−0.25	0.254
1982	Dollars	−0.15	0.208
1982	Dollars	−0.05	0.193
1982	Dollars	0.05	0.193
1982	Dollars	0.15	0.173
1982	Dollars	0.25	0.186
1982	Dollars	0.35	0.203
1982	Dollars	0.45	0.204
1982	Dollars	0.55	0.251
1982	Dollars	0.65	0.260
1982	Dollars	0.75	0.286
1982	Dollars	0.85	0.355
1982	Dollars	0.95	0.534
1982	Dollars	1.05	0.943
1982	Dollars	1.15	1.443
1982	Dollars	1.25	1.476
1982	Dollars	1.35	0.281
1982	Dollars	1.45	0.025
1982	Dollars	1.55	0.002
1982	Dollars	1.65	0.000
1982	Dollars	1.75	0.000
1982	Dollars	1.85	0.000
1982	Dollars	1.95	0.000
1982	Dollars	2.05	0.000
1982	Dollars	2.15	0.000
1982	Dollars	2.25	0.000
1982	Dollars	2.35	0.000
1982	Dollars	2.45	0.000
1984	Donors	−2.45	0.000
1984	Donors	−2.35	0.000
1984	Donors	−2.25	0.000
1984	Donors	−2.15	0.000
1984	Donors	−2.05	0.000
1984	Donors	−1.95	0.000
1984	Donors	−1.85	0.000
1984	Donors	−1.75	0.000
1984	Donors	−1.65	0.000
1984	Donors	−1.55	0.000
1984	Donors	−1.45	0.000
1984	Donors	−1.35	0.000
1984	Donors	−1.25	0.001
1984	Donors	−1.15	0.008
1984	Donors	−1.05	0.067
1984	Donors	−0.95	0.293
1984	Donors	−0.85	0.422
1984	Donors	−0.75	0.460
1984	Donors	−0.65	0.475
1984	Donors	−0.55	0.446
1984	Donors	−0.45	0.383
1984	Donors	−0.35	0.356
1984	Donors	−0.25	0.288
1984	Donors	−0.15	0.267
1984	Donors	−0.05	0.247
1984	Donors	0.05	0.232
1984	Donors	0.15	0.217
1984	Donors	0.25	0.217
1984	Donors	0.35	0.228
1984	Donors	0.45	0.244
1984	Donors	0.55	0.252
1984	Donors	0.65	0.307
1984	Donors	0.75	0.356
1984	Donors	0.85	0.436
1984	Donors	0.95	0.565
1984	Donors	1.05	0.785
1984	Donors	1.15	0.990
1984	Donors	1.25	1.026
1984	Donors	1.35	0.369
1984	Donors	1.45	0.056
1984	Donors	1.55	0.008
1984	Donors	1.65	0.001
1984	Donors	1.75	0.000
1984	Donors	1.85	0.000
1984	Donors	1.95	0.000
1984	Donors	2.05	0.000
1984	Donors	2.15	0.000
1984	Donors	2.25	0.000
1984	Donors	2.35	0.000
1984	Donors	2.45	0.000
1984	Dollars	−2.45	0.000
1984	Dollars	−2.35	0.000
1984	Dollars	−2.25	0.000
1984	Dollars	−2.15	0.000
1984	Dollars	−2.05	0.000
1984	Dollars	−1.95	0.000
1984	Dollars	−1.85	0.000
1984	Dollars	−1.75	0.000
1984	Dollars	−1.65	0.000
1984	Dollars	−1.55	0.000
1984	Dollars	−1.45	0.000
1984	Dollars	−1.35	0.000
1984	Dollars	−1.25	0.000
1984	Dollars	−1.15	0.006
1984	Dollars	−1.05	0.058
1984	Dollars	−0.95	0.241
1984	Dollars	−0.85	0.434
1984	Dollars	−0.75	0.464
1984	Dollars	−0.65	0.458
1984	Dollars	−0.55	0.377
1984	Dollars	−0.45	0.320
1984	Dollars	−0.35	0.283
1984	Dollars	−0.25	0.236
1984	Dollars	−0.15	0.220
1984	Dollars	−0.05	0.202
1984	Dollars	0.05	0.188
1984	Dollars	0.15	0.186
1984	Dollars	0.25	0.190
1984	Dollars	0.35	0.181
1984	Dollars	0.45	0.200
1984	Dollars	0.55	0.221
1984	Dollars	0.65	0.238
1984	Dollars	0.75	0.300
1984	Dollars	0.85	0.375
1984	Dollars	0.95	0.529
1984	Dollars	1.05	0.912
1984	Dollars	1.15	1.337
1984	Dollars	1.25	1.502
1984	Dollars	1.35	0.311
1984	Dollars	1.45	0.027
1984	Dollars	1.55	0.003
1984	Dollars	1.65	0.000
1984	Dollars	1.75	0.000
1984	Dollars	1.85	0.000
1984	Dollars	1.95	0.000
1984	Dollars	2.05	0.000
1984	Dollars	2.15	0.000
1984	Dollars	2.25	0.000
1984	Dollars	2.35	0.000
1984	Dollars	2.45	0.000
1986	Donors	−2.45	0.000
1986	Donors	−2.35	0.000
1986	Donors	−2.25	0.000
1986	Donors	−2.15	0.000
1986	Donors	−2.05	0.000
1986	Donors	−1.95	0.000
1986	Donors	−1.85	0.000
1986	Donors	−1.75	0.000
1986	Donors	−1.65	0.000
1986	Donors	−1.55	0.000
1986	Donors	−1.45	0.000
1986	Donors	−1.35	0.000
1986	Donors	−1.25	0.000
1986	Donors	−1.15	0.009
1986	Donors	−1.05	0.055
1986	Donors	−0.95	0.228
1986	Donors	−0.85	0.366
1986	Donors	−0.75	0.427
1986	Donors	−0.65	0.453
1986	Donors	−0.55	0.426
1986	Donors	−0.45	0.379
1986	Donors	−0.35	0.348
1986	Donors	−0.25	0.293
1986	Donors	−0.15	0.280
1986	Donors	−0.05	0.266
1986	Donors	0.05	0.255
1986	Donors	0.15	0.240
1986	Donors	0.25	0.240
1986	Donors	0.35	0.257
1986	Donors	0.45	0.279
1986	Donors	0.55	0.293
1986	Donors	0.65	0.334
1986	Donors	0.75	0.400
1986	Donors	0.85	0.478
1986	Donors	0.95	0.602
1986	Donors	1.05	0.806
1986	Donors	1.15	0.945
1986	Donors	1.25	0.942
1986	Donors	1.35	0.339
1986	Donors	1.45	0.055
1986	Donors	1.55	0.006
1986	Donors	1.65	0.001
1986	Donors	1.75	0.000
1986	Donors	1.85	0.000
1986	Donors	1.95	0.000
1986	Donors	2.05	0.000
1986	Donors	2.15	0.000
1986	Donors	2.25	0.000
1986	Donors	2.35	0.000
1986	Donors	2.45	0.000
1986	Dollars	−2.45	0.000
1986	Dollars	−2.35	0.000
1986	Dollars	−2.25	0.000
1986	Dollars	−2.15	0.000
1986	Dollars	−2.05	0.000
1986	Dollars	−1.95	0.000
1986	Dollars	−1.85	0.000
1986	Dollars	−1.75	0.000
1986	Dollars	−1.65	0.000
1986	Dollars	−1.55	0.000
1986	Dollars	−1.45	0.000
1986	Dollars	−1.35	0.000
1986	Dollars	−1.25	0.000
1986	Dollars	−1.15	0.009
1986	Dollars	−1.05	0.055
1986	Dollars	−0.95	0.208
1986	Dollars	−0.85	0.391
1986	Dollars	−0.75	0.428
1986	Dollars	−0.65	0.439
1986	Dollars	−0.55	0.394
1986	Dollars	−0.45	0.354
1986	Dollars	−0.35	0.289
1986	Dollars	−0.25	0.251
1986	Dollars	−0.15	0.234
1986	Dollars	−0.05	0.228
1986	Dollars	0.05	0.214
1986	Dollars	0.15	0.220
1986	Dollars	0.25	0.202
1986	Dollars	0.35	0.216
1986	Dollars	0.45	0.242
1986	Dollars	0.55	0.266
1986	Dollars	0.65	0.282
1986	Dollars	0.75	0.342
1986	Dollars	0.85	0.427
1986	Dollars	0.95	0.588
1986	Dollars	1.05	0.925
1986	Dollars	1.15	1.211
1986	Dollars	1.25	1.253
1986	Dollars	1.35	0.294
1986	Dollars	1.45	0.033
1986	Dollars	1.55	0.003
1986	Dollars	1.65	0.000
1986	Dollars	1.75	0.000
1986	Dollars	1.85	0.000
1986	Dollars	1.95	0.000
1986	Dollars	2.05	0.000
1986	Dollars	2.15	0.000
1986	Dollars	2.25	0.000
1986	Dollars	2.35	0.000
1986	Dollars	2.45	0.000
1988	Donors	−2.45	0.000
1988	Donors	−2.35	0.000
1988	Donors	−2.25	0.000
1988	Donors	−2.15	0.000
1988	Donors	−2.05	0.000
1988	Donors	−1.95	0.000
1988	Donors	−1.85	0.000
1988	Donors	−1.75	0.000
1988	Donors	−1.65	0.000
1988	Donors	−1.55	0.000
1988	Donors	−1.45	0.000
1988	Donors	−1.35	0.000
1988	Donors	−1.25	0.000
1988	Donors	−1.15	0.011
1988	Donors	−1.05	0.078
1988	Donors	−0.95	0.345
1988	Donors	−0.85	0.478
1988	Donors	−0.75	0.516
1988	Donors	−0.65	0.502
1988	Donors	−0.55	0.473
1988	Donors	−0.45	0.404
1988	Donors	−0.35	0.353
1988	Donors	−0.25	0.299
1988	Donors	−0.15	0.287
1988	Donors	−0.05	0.255
1988	Donors	0.05	0.243
1988	Donors	0.15	0.233
1988	Donors	0.25	0.239
1988	Donors	0.35	0.242
1988	Donors	0.45	0.263
1988	Donors	0.55	0.282
1988	Donors	0.65	0.318
1988	Donors	0.75	0.371
1988	Donors	0.85	0.444
1988	Donors	0.95	0.573
1988	Donors	1.05	0.722
1988	Donors	1.15	0.838
1988	Donors	1.25	0.818
1988	Donors	1.35	0.333
1988	Donors	1.45	0.070
1988	Donors	1.55	0.009
1988	Donors	1.65	0.001
1988	Donors	1.75	0.000
1988	Donors	1.85	0.000
1988	Donors	1.95	0.000
1988	Donors	2.05	0.000
1988	Donors	2.15	0.000
1988	Donors	2.25	0.000
1988	Donors	2.35	0.000
1988	Donors	2.45	0.000
1988	Dollars	−2.45	0.000
1988	Dollars	−2.35	0.000
1988	Dollars	−2.25	0.000
1988	Dollars	−2.15	0.000
1988	Dollars	−2.05	0.000
1988	Dollars	−1.95	0.000
1988	Dollars	−1.85	0.000
1988	Dollars	−1.75	0.000
1988	Dollars	−1.65	0.000
1988	Dollars	−1.55	0.000
1988	Dollars	−1.45	0.000
1988	Dollars	−1.35	0.000
1988	Dollars	−1.25	0.000
1988	Dollars	−1.15	0.009
1988	Dollars	−1.05	0.061
1988	Dollars	−0.95	0.291
1988	Dollars	−0.85	0.474
1988	Dollars	−0.75	0.504
1988	Dollars	−0.65	0.492
1988	Dollars	−0.55	0.442
1988	Dollars	−0.45	0.370
1988	Dollars	−0.35	0.325
1988	Dollars	−0.25	0.263
1988	Dollars	−0.15	0.243
1988	Dollars	−0.05	0.221
1988	Dollars	0.05	0.224
1988	Dollars	0.15	0.215
1988	Dollars	0.25	0.200
1988	Dollars	0.35	0.235
1988	Dollars	0.45	0.237
1988	Dollars	0.55	0.253
1988	Dollars	0.65	0.277
1988	Dollars	0.75	0.338
1988	Dollars	0.85	0.420
1988	Dollars	0.95	0.589
1988	Dollars	1.05	0.831
1988	Dollars	1.15	1.047
1988	Dollars	1.25	1.094
1988	Dollars	1.35	0.304
1988	Dollars	1.45	0.037
1988	Dollars	1.55	0.003
1988	Dollars	1.65	0.000
1988	Dollars	1.75	0.000
1988	Dollars	1.85	0.000
1988	Dollars	1.95	0.000
1988	Dollars	2.05	0.000
1988	Dollars	2.15	0.000
1988	Dollars	2.25	0.000
1988	Dollars	2.35	0.000
1988	Dollars	2.45	0.000

Showing the first 500 of 2300 rows.

Full counts of itemized gifts, with one score per donor

The data are the Stanford Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections (DIME) [1], which estimates a score for each donor and each candidate from the same records of who gave to whom [2]. The file holds itemized gifts, gifts large enough that the recipient must report the giver by name, in every two-year election cycle from 1980 to 2024, to state as well as federal recipients. Every donor counts once in each cycle in which they gave. A donor is reliable if they gave to at least 88 distinct recipientsEstimandminimum number of distinct recipients for the reliable flagWeightsnone (constant)Populationdefinition of a reliable donorPeriodcareerSourceDIME distinct recipients over their whole career and have a score estimated from that giving rather than carried over from a recipient. The pool grew, and the reliable donors active in 2024 are 8181 ratio of the 2024 pool to the 1980 poolEstimandcount of active reliable donors in 2024 divided by the count in 1980Weightsnone (administrative records: every itemized donor and every scored candidate is counted)Populationreliable individual donors active in the cyclePeriod1980 and 2024SourceDIME times those of 1980. These are full counts of the records in the release, so the shares carry no sampling interval, and they do not carry the estimation error of each CFscore either. The qualification that matters is the reliable flag. It is set once from a donor's whole record, so a donor who gave in 1980 and reached that number of recipients years later counts as reliable in 1980. A recent joiner has had less time to reach it, so the early and late pools are selected by different rules. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.

Donors who joined account for most of the fall

Between two cycles, donors join the pool or leave it, and the donors active in both cycles keep their scores. Figure 2 splits each change between consecutive cycles into the donors who left and the donors who joined, and adds the steps from 1980 to 2024. Joiners changed the near-zero share by −11.2−11.2 percentage points of the near-center shareEstimandcontribution of donors who joined the pool to the change in the near-center share (average of two orders)Weightsnone (administrative records: every itemized donor and every scored candidate is counted)Populationreliable individual donors active in the cyclePeriod1980 to 2024, summed over 22 cycle-to-cycle stepsSourceDIME pointsPercentage pointThe unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused. and leavers by +0.6+0.6 percentage points of the near-center shareEstimandcontribution of donors who left the pool to the change in the near-center share (average of two orders)Weightsnone (administrative records: every itemized donor and every scored candidate is counted)Populationreliable individual donors active in the cyclePeriod1980 to 2024, summed over 22 cycle-to-cycle stepsSourceDIME points, and the two sum to the change over the whole period. The fall is in who arrived.The split depends on the order of accounting, and the figure shows the average of two orders, removing leavers first and adding joiners first; the sign of the leavers' step depends on the order. A joiner is active in a cycle and not in the one before, which includes donors who return after a gap.

The share fell slowly until 2002 and faster after it, and every cycle from 2004 on is below every cycle through 2002. The Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 took effect the day after the 2002 general election and raised the limit on an individual's gift to a candidate from 2003 on [3]. The 2004 cycle was therefore the first full cycle under the act. This chapter does not separate its effect from other changes. Online platforms for small gifts, ActBlue from 2004 and WinRed from 2019, may account for part of the entry, and the files cannot test how much.

Figure 2

Donors who joined the pool account for most of the fall in the near-center share

Change in the percent of active reliable donors within 0.25 of zero, 1980 to 2024, split into donors who left and donors who joined between consecutive cycles

Show data

Data for Donors who joined the pool account for most of the fall in the near-center share

kind	step	value
start	Pool in 1980	11.81
delta	Donors who left	0.554
delta	Donors who joined	−11.20
end	Pool in 2024	1.16

The donors of 1980 have mostly left the pool. Of the reliable donors active in 1980, 18%17.7% percent of the 1980 poolEstimandshare of the 1980 pool that is also active in 2024n31,138Weightsnone (administrative records: every itemized donor and every scored candidate is counted)Populationreliable individual donors active in the cyclePeriod1980 and 2024SourceDIME were active in 2024 as well. The count of reliable donors near zero in 2024 was 88 ratio of the 2024 count to the 1980 countEstimandcount of near-center donors in 2024 divided by the count in 1980Weightsnone (administrative records: every itemized donor and every scored candidate is counted)Populationreliable donors within the center bandPeriod1980 and 2024SourceDIME times the count of 1980, so the share fell while the count rose.

What the fall means, and what it does not

The donor pool is a small and self-selected group, so a change in it does not describe voters. Figure 3 places the near-zero donor share beside the share of adults who call themselves moderate on the five-point ideology question of the Cooperative Election Study (CES), with each series scaled to its own 2006 value. The survey share, weightedSurvey weightsNumbers that scale each respondent so the sample matches the population on known traits such as age, race, education and region. A weighted average counts a respondent with a large weight for more than one with a small weight. so that the sample matches the adult population, had its lowest reading in 2018 and no steady direction, while the donor share fell over the same years. The two lines measure different things, a position estimated from giving among people who give and a label chosen by adults from five options. The comparison cannot show which changed first, because the survey series starts in 2006, after part of the donor fall. Zero is a point on an estimated scale and not a measured middle of public opinion, so near zero does not mean moderate in the sense of a survey answer. Chapter 1.1, Party and ideology follows how party and ideology line up among survey respondents.

Figure 3

The donor share near the center fell from 7.8% to 1.2% while self-described moderates stayed between 30.8% and 39.0%

Each series as a percent of its own 2006 value: reliable donors within 0.25 of zero (DIME) and adults who call themselves moderate (CES), by election year

Show data

Data for The donor share near the center fell from 7.8% to 1.2% while self-described moderates stayed between 30.8% and 39.0%

Election year	Series	Percent	Index (2006 = 100)	Interval low (index)	Interval high (index)	Donors or respondents
2006	Donors	7.8	100.0	n/a	n/a	1,142,451
2008	Donors	6.2	79.4	n/a	n/a	1,425,885
2010	Donors	6.6	83.6	n/a	n/a	1,409,984
2012	Donors	4.6	58.6	n/a	n/a	1,805,776
2014	Donors	4.8	61.3	n/a	n/a	1,597,010
2016	Donors	3.4	43.5	n/a	n/a	1,978,112
2018	Donors	2.5	32.2	n/a	n/a	2,161,252
2020	Donors	1.5	19.7	n/a	n/a	3,483,649
2022	Donors	1.4	17.8	n/a	n/a	3,082,400
2024	Donors	1.2	14.8	n/a	n/a	2,533,588
2006	Moderates	39.0	100.0	98.5	101.5	34,189
2008	Moderates	35.1	89.8	88.2	91.5	30,436
2010	Moderates	34.8	89.1	87.4	90.8	52,342
2012	Moderates	36.4	93.1	91.5	94.7	50,564
2014	Moderates	37.6	96.3	94.7	98.0	51,022
2016	Moderates	38.1	97.7	96.3	99.1	59,815
2018	Moderates	30.8	78.8	77.3	80.2	54,950
2020	Moderates	33.4	85.5	84.1	87.0	56,208
2022	Moderates	34.5	88.3	86.8	89.8	55,606
2024	Moderates	35.4	90.6	88.8	92.4	56,384

Dollars and candidates are separate measures from donor counts. Weighted by itemized dollars, with each donor's total in a cycle capped, the near-zero share went from 12.2%12.2% percent of itemized dollarsEstimandshare of itemized dollars from reliable donors within the center band, each donor capped at $1 millionn31,138Weightsnone (administrative records: every itemized donor and every scored candidate is counted)Populationreliable individual donors active in the cyclePeriod1980SourceDIME in 1980 to 3.4%3.4% percent of itemized dollarsEstimandshare of itemized dollars from reliable donors within the center band, each donor capped at $1 millionn2,533,588Weightsnone (administrative records: every itemized donor and every scored candidate is counted)Populationreliable individual donors active in the cyclePeriod2024SourceDIME in 2024. In 2024 it was 2.92.9 ratio of the dollar share to the donor shareEstimandcapped dollar share within the center band divided by the donor share within the center bandWeightsnone (administrative records: every itemized donor and every scored candidate is counted)Populationreliable individual donors active in the cyclePeriod2024SourceDIME times the donor share, because near-center donors gave more per donor than the others did. Candidates are scored from the same giving records as donors, so the share of House and Senate candidates near zero is not evidence from a second source. It fell from 1980 to 2020, though not in every cycle, and then rose in 2022 and 2024 while the donor share kept falling, so the two lines agree in direction only through 2020.

What these records cannot tell you

The figures describe who gave in each cycle, and they say nothing about whether any donor's views changed, because DIME fixes each donor's score. Only itemized gifts are in the file, so gifts below the reporting threshold are absent. The codebook does not say how complete the filings of the 2024 cycle are, so the 2024 pool may be incomplete. The files hold no recipients, so nothing here says whether a donor gave to one party, to both or to candidates near the middle. The data are descriptive, and they cannot say whether donors' positions shape which candidates run, whether candidates' positions attract donors, or whether both follow something else, such as the sorting of voters by party.

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Go deeper

• The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
• Tables: every figure of the report as a table.

Reading paths that include this chapter:

• Money and the map

Data sources

• DIMEStanford DIME public version 4.0: individual donors (contributor CFscores, active cycles, itemized dollars) and federal House and Senate candidates (dynamic CFscores, DW-NOMINATE), election cycles 1980-2024Years: 1979-2024 (23 election cycles) · Weights: none (administrative records, no sampling); every itemized donor and every scored candidate counted · License: ODC-BY 1.0, as listed on the Stanford Libraries page (read through a search result, not the license text).
• Cooperative Election StudyCooperative Election Study, cumulative common content, five-point ideology self-placement, even election years 2006-2024Years: 2006-2024 (every year; self-reported turnout is available in the 10 even years) · Weights: weight (single-wave survey weight) · License: See the provider's terms of use.

All data sources

References

1. Bonica, Adam (2024). Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections: Public version 4.0 [Computer file]. Stanford University Libraries, Stanford, CA. data.stanford.edu/dime
2. Bonica, Adam (2014). Mapping the Ideological Marketplace. American Journal of Political Science 58(2): 367-386. doi:10.1111/ajps.12062
3. United States Congress (2002). Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002. Public Law 107-155, 116 Stat. 81. www.congress.gov/107/plaws/publ155/PLAW-107publ155.pdf

How to cite

@misc{singh2026theideologyofthedonorpool,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {The ideology of the donor pool},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-ideology-of-the-donor-pool},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 30 September 2026.}
}