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    Chapter 4.4

    Health care

    In the American National Election Studies, the share on the government side of the health insurance scale was 24.4 points higher among Democrats than Republicans in 1970 and 46.6 points higher in 2024.

    In 1970, long before the Affordable Care Act (ACA), the American National Election Studies (ANES) asked Americans to place themselves on a seven-point scale from a government insurance plan covering all medical and hospital expenses to private insurance. The Democratic share choosing a point on the government side exceeded the Republican share by 24.4 (95% CI 18.6 to 30.2)24.4 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 18.6 to 30.2n1,112Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod1970SourceANES Cumulative Data File pointsPercentage pointThe unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused., and in 2024 the gap was 46.646.6 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 42.8 to 50.4n4,489Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points.Democrats and Republicans include independents who say they lean toward a party, the leanersPartisan leanerA respondent who first says they are independent but, when asked, says they lean toward one party. Most figures group leaners with the party they lean toward, and each chapter says which grouping it uses., throughout this essay. Independents are the respondents who lean toward neither. The party difference over government insurance is older than the law. Views of the ACA itself were measured only after it passed, in another survey, as a separate series.

    The parties differed before 1993 and more after 2010

    The gap is the Democratic share on the government side minus the Republican share, in points. The government side is the answers nearest the government plan, short of the midpoint, which stays in the denominator. The ANES gap's interval lies above zero in 1970 and in every study since, so the parties did not start from agreement. The General Social Survey (GSS) asks instead whether the government in Washington should help people pay for doctors and hospital bills. Its gap also lies above zero in every survey from 1975 to 2024 and was 4342.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the GSS question on whether government should help pay for medical care (helpsick), answers 1 and 2 (the government side)Interval95% CI 36.1 to 48.9n1,538Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on government help paying for doctors and hospital billsPeriod2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points in 2024.

    Two dates are marked on the charts. President Clinton's health plan was proposed in 1993 and did not pass Congress in 1994 [1], and the Affordable Care Act (ACA) became law in March 2010 [2]. Pooling the ANES studies into three periods split at those dates, the gap changed by +6.2 (95% CI 2.8 to 9.6)+6.2 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted party gap between windows (Before 1993 to 1993 to 2009; two separate sets of surveys); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 2.8 to 9.6n14,833Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992 to 1994-2008SourceANES Cumulative Data File points from the studies of 1970 to 1992 to those of 1994 to 2008. From that middle period to the studies of 2012 to 2024 it changed by +16.2 (95% CI 13.0 to 19.4)+16.2 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted party gap between windows (1993 to 2009 to 2010 and after; two separate sets of surveys); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 13.0 to 19.4n24,719Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1994-2008 to 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points. The second change is larger than the first, and the two intervals do not overlap. In both series the point estimate of every survey from 2010 on is larger than that of any survey before 1993.

    Figure 1

    The party gap on government's role in health care was above zero in every survey that asked about it and larger after 2010 than before 1993

    Democratic minus Republican share on the government side (ANES, GSS help) or saying we spend too little (GSS spending), party identifiers including leaners, 1970 to 2024; 95% intervals

    Democratic minus Republican gap (points)

    Show data
    Data for The party gap on government's role in health care was above zero in every survey that asked about it and larger after 2010 than before 1993
    Survey and answerYearGap (points)LowerUpperRespondents
    ANES: government plan197024.418.630.21,112
    ANES: government plan197218.812.525.0959
    ANES: government plan197624.219.329.21,494
    ANES: government plan197825.120.329.81,596
    ANES: government plan198416.89.723.9688
    ANES: government plan198822.717.927.51,512
    ANES: government plan199230.225.834.51,873
    ANES: government plan199430.725.635.91,470
    ANES: government plan199631.025.736.31,402
    ANES: government plan200024.417.131.6822
    ANES: government plan200432.626.239.1991
    ANES: government plan200832.124.339.9914
    ANES: government plan201241.938.745.14,760
    ANES: government plan201639.836.243.43,294
    ANES: government plan202054.051.356.76,577
    ANES: government plan202446.642.850.44,489
    GSS: government should help197517.110.823.41,236
    GSS: government should help198327.020.533.51,348
    GSS: government should help198417.310.324.21,235
    GSS: government should help198621.415.327.51,233
    GSS: government should help198716.810.722.91,565
    GSS: government should help198811.84.419.3857
    GSS: government should help198916.49.123.8872
    GSS: government should help199012.95.120.7771
    GSS: government should help199114.16.821.4866
    GSS: government should help199320.012.727.3882
    GSS: government should help199427.021.832.21,654
    GSS: government should help199623.818.429.21,539
    GSS: government should help199821.816.327.41,508
    GSS: government should help200029.123.634.71,445
    GSS: government should help200230.522.438.7705
    GSS: government should help200422.514.131.0727
    GSS: government should help200629.223.435.11,498
    GSS: government should help200832.125.338.91,093
    GSS: government should help201039.632.846.41,060
    GSS: government should help201231.824.539.01,017
    GSS: government should help201438.632.944.31,255
    GSS: government should help201643.638.149.11,520
    GSS: government should help201836.529.643.51,203
    GSS: government should help202146.441.551.32,005
    GSS: government should help202238.431.445.41,703
    GSS: government should help202442.536.148.91,538
    GSS: spending too little197313.47.419.51,242
    GSS: spending too little19746.90.713.11,212
    GSS: spending too little197512.46.218.71,225
    GSS: spending too little197611.65.218.11,205
    GSS: spending too little197714.07.720.31,277
    GSS: spending too little197818.511.425.61,247
    GSS: spending too little198021.915.028.91,164
    GSS: spending too little198214.17.320.91,538
    GSS: spending too little198318.712.025.41,345
    GSS: spending too little198423.011.734.2404
    GSS: spending too little198510.91.620.2639
    GSS: spending too little198614.65.923.4614
    GSS: spending too little198715.25.325.2517
    GSS: spending too little19886.7−1.715.1598
    GSS: spending too little198910.72.518.8639
    GSS: spending too little19907.0−1.115.1572
    GSS: spending too little199112.04.019.9631
    GSS: spending too little199317.39.624.9662
    GSS: spending too little199424.718.830.71,234
    GSS: spending too little199621.215.227.21,153
    GSS: spending too little199814.17.920.41,075
    GSS: spending too little200014.88.621.01,068
    GSS: spending too little200216.29.922.41,042
    GSS: spending too little200414.38.520.11,150
    GSS: spending too little200617.811.524.11,130
    GSS: spending too little200815.78.423.0787
    GSS: spending too little201029.221.037.4792
    GSS: spending too little201225.116.234.1752
    GSS: spending too little201425.718.532.9965
    GSS: spending too little201615.48.622.31,129
    GSS: spending too little201823.415.931.0898
    GSS: spending too little202141.736.047.31,467
    GSS: spending too little202229.821.338.41,248
    GSS: spending too little202415.38.222.51,155

    Both colored lines lie above the zero rule in every survey year and sit higher in every year from 2010 on than in any year before 1993. The solid line is the ANES gap from 1970 to 2024 and the dashed colored line the GSS gap on help paying medical bills from 1975 to 2024. The grey dashed line is a second GSS question, on spending on health, which names neither insurance nor the government's role. The shaded bands mark the Clinton plan and the ACA debate and passage, positions on the axis and not tests of a cause; each line's band is its 95% interval. Values in Table 2.

    Note: The 2012, 2016 and 2024 ANES studies combined in-person and web samples, and the 2020 study had no in-person interviews. GSS interviews were mostly in person through 2018, mostly on the web in 2021, and in both modes in 2022 and 2024. The text and the mode figure check what these changes can do to the lines.Note: The ANES asked the scale of a subsample of respondents in 1972, 1984, 2000 and 2008, so those intervals are wider. The ANES government side is the three points nearest the government plan, and the midpoint stays in the denominator. The GSS asked the spending question of a subsample from 1984 to 1993, so its intervals are wider there. A party cell needs at least 150 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100.Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1970-2024, and General Social Survey, 1973-2024; weighted (weight, VCF0009z; weight_use)

    How the two surveys asked

    Each ANES study and GSS survey is treated as its own sample, so each estimate describes the people asked that year. About 38,00038,318 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents who answered VCF0806Weightsnone (count)PopulationANES respondents who answered the government health insurance questionPeriod1970-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File respondents answered the ANES scale in election years from 1970 to 2024, and about 40,00039,798 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents who answered helpsickWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS respondents who answered the help-pay questionPeriod1975-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey answered the GSS question in surveys from 1975 to 2024. The ANES cumulative file carries the scale as one item across those years, and the full question text was not checked in each study. Shares are weightedSurvey weightsNumbers that scale each respondent so the sample matches the population on known traits such as age, race, education and region. A weighted average counts a respondent with a large weight for more than one with a small weight. to match the population on known traits, and answers of don't know are left out. The qualification that matters is interview modeSurvey modeHow respondents were interviewed: in person, by phone, on paper or online. Mode can change answers, so a change in mode can look like a change in opinion.. The ANES added a web sample beside its in-person sample in 2012, 2016 and 2024, and the 2020 study had no in-person interviews [3]. The GSS interviewed mostly in person through 2018 and moved most interviews to the web in 2021. The latest movements in each survey therefore mix any change of opinion with a change of mode. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.

    The CES asked about the ACA only after it passed

    The Cooperative Election Study (CES), an opt-in panel, names policies that were on the national agenda in the years they were asked, and it asked about the Affordable Care Act in every year from 2012 to 2021. In 2012, 80.3%80.3% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share opposing repeal of the Affordable Care Act (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 79.5% to 81.1%n24,358Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2012SourceCooperative Election Study of Democrats and 23.9%23.9% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share opposing repeal of the Affordable Care Act (CES, opt-in panel)Interval95% CI 23.0% to 24.8%n19,613Weightsweight (single-wave weight)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the CES itemPeriod2012SourceCooperative Election Study of Republicans opposed repealing the law. The Democratic share stayed above the Republican share in every year through 2021, and the interval for the gap lies above zero in every year, counting 2014 after a recode explained below. The CES health items begin in 2012, after the law passed, and end in 2021, so they cannot show whether the ACA gap widened the way the ANES and GSS gaps did. The wording of the repeal question changes in 2014, in 2016 and from 2018, so the lines in the figure join only years with the same wording.

    The cumulative CES file gives the answer support the same code in every year, but in 2014 that code is the Democratic answer. At face value the stored 2014 answers would make Democrats the party more likely to support repeal, the opposite of every other year. The loader reverses the 2014 code, and the reversal rests on that party pattern and on an earlier version of the file that applied the same switch [4], not on a value label. The 2014 question also differs in wording from its neighbors, so the chapter draws 2014 as an open point apart from the lines and uses it in no comparison.

    Figure 2

    Democrats opposed repealing the ACA more often than Republicans in every CES year, counting 2014 after a recode, with independents between them

    Share opposing repeal of the Affordable Care Act, by party identification including leaners, 2012 to 2021; open points are the 2014 and 2016 questions, which are worded differently; 95% intervals from an opt-in panel

    Show data
    Data for Democrats opposed repealing the ACA more often than Republicans in every CES year, counting 2014 after a recode, with independents between them
    GroupYearQuestion worded differently from its neighbours (2014, 2016)Share (%)LowerUpperRespondents
    Democrats2012no80.379.581.124,358
    Democrats2013no73.472.074.97,267
    Democrats2014yes80.079.380.825,595
    Democrats2015no66.164.567.76,584
    Democrats2016yes70.970.271.631,104
    Democrats2017no83.982.785.08,518
    Democrats2018no85.084.485.627,585
    Democrats2019no81.880.783.08,228
    Democrats2020no83.182.583.729,302
    Democrats2021no79.678.780.612,445
    Independents2012no53.952.155.85,890
    Independents2013no37.635.040.22,825
    Independents2014yes34.332.735.98,616
    Independents2015no37.034.139.92,159
    Independents2016yes34.633.335.910,471
    Independents2017no47.244.549.83,161
    Independents2018no53.952.255.68,514
    Independents2019no46.343.549.12,631
    Independents2020no53.051.354.68,839
    Independents2021no49.847.851.84,352
    Republicans2012no23.923.024.819,613
    Republicans2013no12.311.113.65,153
    Republicans2014yes10.810.211.518,925
    Republicans2015no14.813.416.14,833
    Republicans2016yes11.711.112.220,818
    Republicans2017no15.213.916.55,733
    Republicans2018no23.522.724.221,693
    Republicans2019no18.617.419.86,435
    Republicans2020no21.320.522.020,358
    Republicans2021no26.625.427.88,139

    The Democratic line runs above the Republican line in every year from 2012 to 2021, and the grey independent line lies between them. The lines break where the wording changes; the open points are 2014, shown after the recode, and 2016, when the question asked for a vote for or against. Bands are 95% intervals from an opt-in panel and rest on a model. Values in Table 5.

    Note: The cumulative file labels code 1 as support in every year, but in 2014 that code is the Democratic answer, the opposite of the party pattern in every other year. The loader reverses the 2014 answers, and the open 2014 point is the answer after the reversal; with the stored code the 2014 gap would have the opposite sign. The 2014 question also differs in wording from the neighbouring years, as the wording table shows.Note: The wording is a bill considered in Congress in 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2017, a vote for or against in 2016 and a health care proposal to repeal the entire law from 2018. Each party cell needs at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100. The CES is an opt-in panel, so the intervals rest on a model.Source: Cooperative Election Study cumulative policy preferences, 2012-2021; weighted (single-wave weight), opt-in panel

    The latest movement mixes opinion with interview mode

    The largest step between adjacent ANES studies is the rise from 2016 to 2020, into the study with no in-person interviews. The 2020 study has no separate weights by mode, so the ANES on its own cannot split that step into a change of opinion and a change of mode. From 2020 to 2024 the gap fell, and among the newly recruited web respondents of 2024 the change from 2020 has an interval that includes zero. The GSS gap rose from 2018 to 2021, the survey in which most interviews moved to the web. The like-for-like change among in-person respondents, from 2018 to 2022, has an interval that includes zero, and in 2022 and 2024 the web gap exceeds the in-person gap within the same survey. The period comparison does not depend on the web samples. Among in-person ANES respondents alone, the gap pooled over 2012, 2016 and 2024 exceeds the gap before 1993 by +18.6 (95% CI 14.3 to 23.0)+18.6 percentage pointsEstimandchange in the pooled weighted party gap from before 1993 to the later period among in-person respondents; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 14.3 to 23.0n12,787Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992 to in-person 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points. The in-person GSS gap also rose from before 1993 to 2010 and after, with an interval above zero.

    The Republican share fell in both surveys

    A gap can widen because one party moves, the other moves or both do. Figure 3 shows the shares behind the ANES gap. In 1970, 54.5%54.5% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 50.8% to 58.2%n697Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod1970SourceANES Cumulative Data File of Democrats and 30.1%30.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 25.7% to 34.5%n415Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod1970SourceANES Cumulative Data File of Republicans chose a point on the government side, and in 2024 the shares were 71.7%71.7% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 69.0% to 74.3%n2,360Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File and 25.1%25.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 22.4% to 27.7%n2,129Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File. Pooled over the three periods, the Republican share on the government side fell in both steps and the Democratic share rose in the last. Over the whole span the fall in the Republican share exceeds the rise in the Democratic share by +3.3 (95% CI 0.8 to 5.9)+3.3 percentage pointsEstimandfall in the pooled Republican share minus rise in the pooled Democratic share, before 1993 to 2010 and after (independent party samples); the ANES seven-point government against private health insurance scale (VCF0806), answers 1 to 3 (the government side)Interval95% CI 0.8 to 5.9n28,354Weightsweight (VCF0009z), rescaled to average one within each survey year before years are combinedPopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES government health insurance questionPeriodANES 1970-1992 to 2012-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, an interval above zero, so the ANES says that the Republican share moved more. The GSS shows the same Republican fall and Democratic rise, and its interval for the fall minus the rise includes zero, so it does not say which party moved more. Independents lie between the parties wherever either survey can report them, and the gap widened within every age and education group that either survey can split; education separates the groups in both periods.

    A comparison of the surveys on either side of 1993 or 2010 gives the timing of two measurements and does not test whether the Clinton plan or the ACA moved opinion. Tesler reports that opinion on health care came to line up with racial attitudes under President Obama [5], and Companion 4.6a, Racial attitudes and ideology tests that with the ANES item used here. The three surveys also measure three things, insurance, the federal government's responsibility for medical bills and named policies, so their gaps are not three estimates of one quantity.

    Figure 3

    In the ANES and the GSS help-pay question the Republican share on the government side was lower and the Democratic share higher from 2010 on than before 1993

    Share on the government side (ANES, GSS help-pay) or saying we spend too little (GSS spending), by party identification; leaners are in the parties and independents lean toward neither; all respondents dashed; 95% intervals

    Show data
    Data for In the ANES and the GSS help-pay question the Republican share on the government side was lower and the Democratic share higher from 2010 on than before 1993
    Survey and answerGroupYearShare (%)LowerUpperRespondents
    ANES: government planAll respondents197045.242.447.91,284
    ANES: government planAll respondents197245.542.648.41,112
    ANES: government planAll respondents197644.241.946.61,769
    ANES: government planAll respondents197845.242.947.41,884
    ANES: government planAll respondents198437.834.441.1792
    ANES: government planAll respondents198842.440.044.71,707
    ANES: government planAll respondents199251.649.553.82,140
    ANES: government planAll respondents199438.235.640.81,637
    ANES: government planAll respondents199639.336.642.11,536
    ANES: government planAll respondents200044.440.847.9935
    ANES: government planAll respondents200446.743.549.91,112
    ANES: government planAll respondents200847.543.751.31,044
    ANES: government planAll respondents201235.734.037.45,471
    ANES: government planAll respondents201638.236.440.13,765
    ANES: government planAll respondents202045.043.546.57,352
    ANES: government planAll respondents202449.747.751.84,778
    ANES: government planDemocrats197054.550.858.2697
    ANES: government planDemocrats197252.948.857.1561
    ANES: government planDemocrats197653.650.256.9869
    ANES: government planDemocrats197854.451.357.51,006
    ANES: government planDemocrats198445.039.750.2347
    ANES: government planDemocrats198852.348.955.8793
    ANES: government planDemocrats199264.261.367.11,068
    ANES: government planDemocrats199452.148.256.1754
    ANES: government planDemocrats199652.048.155.9806
    ANES: government planDemocrats200053.548.558.5480
    ANES: government planDemocrats200461.657.066.1536
    ANES: government planDemocrats200861.056.065.9620
    ANES: government planDemocrats201255.352.857.82,849
    ANES: government planDemocrats201656.653.759.41,704
    ANES: government planDemocrats202070.968.873.03,472
    ANES: government planDemocrats202471.769.074.32,360
    ANES: government planIndependents197043.836.251.5162
    ANES: government planIndependents197248.039.956.0148
    ANES: government planIndependents197647.040.753.2257
    ANES: government planIndependents197846.340.452.3272
    ANES: government planIndependents198848.140.855.3183
    ANES: government planIndependents199253.447.359.6257
    ANES: government planIndependents199447.138.555.7161
    ANES: government planIndependents199644.735.154.2129
    ANES: government planIndependents201235.631.040.3696
    ANES: government planIndependents201642.337.047.7458
    ANES: government planIndependents202045.040.249.9755
    ANES: government planIndependents202451.442.760.2267
    ANES: government planRepublicans197030.125.734.5415
    ANES: government planRepublicans197234.229.538.8398
    ANES: government planRepublicans197629.325.733.0625
    ANES: government planRepublicans197829.325.633.0590
    ANES: government planRepublicans198428.223.432.9341
    ANES: government planRepublicans198829.626.333.0719
    ANES: government planRepublicans199234.130.837.3805
    ANES: government planRepublicans199421.418.124.7716
    ANES: government planRepublicans199621.017.324.6596
    ANES: government planRepublicans200029.123.834.4342
    ANES: government planRepublicans200428.924.433.4455
    ANES: government planRepublicans200828.922.934.9294
    ANES: government planRepublicans201213.411.415.41,911
    ANES: government planRepublicans201616.814.619.01,590
    ANES: government planRepublicans202016.915.218.63,105
    ANES: government planRepublicans202425.122.427.72,129
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents197549.947.152.81,453
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents198348.445.251.61,540
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents198445.141.948.31,409
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents198649.446.552.31,427
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents198747.945.150.81,774
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents198848.444.951.9972
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents198955.652.259.11,010
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents199058.755.062.4871
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents199156.853.360.2993
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents199352.649.256.11,026
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents199447.344.849.81,945
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents199648.846.351.31,867
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents199849.046.451.51,849
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents200050.547.953.01,830
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents200251.347.555.1898
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents200454.150.158.0864
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents200652.349.654.91,964
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents200854.050.857.11,331
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents201045.942.549.31,326
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents201245.542.148.91,297
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents201443.140.345.81,640
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents201649.847.052.51,896
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents201852.248.955.41,528
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents202154.151.756.42,627
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents202255.852.659.02,323
    GSS: government should help payAll respondents202453.150.156.12,138
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats197556.752.960.5795
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats198358.754.463.0826
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats198453.048.557.5729
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats198659.555.563.5716
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats198755.952.059.81,009
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats198855.050.060.0473
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats198963.258.268.2471
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats199064.459.169.7411
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats199162.457.467.4447
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats199361.256.366.2483
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats199459.856.263.4900
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats199658.755.062.4861
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats199858.955.162.7847
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats200063.059.266.8804
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats200263.558.069.0405
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats200465.059.370.7397
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats200664.560.668.4839
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats200867.062.771.3653
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats201060.655.765.6643
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats201258.253.463.0627
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats201458.053.962.1746
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats201669.265.572.9914
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats201870.265.974.5676
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats202174.871.778.01,187
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats202274.470.078.7939
    GSS: government should help payDemocrats202473.068.777.3826
    GSS: government should help payIndependents197544.136.551.7200
    GSS: government should help payIndependents198443.434.252.7147
    GSS: government should help payIndependents198645.937.754.1182
    GSS: government should help payIndependents198745.737.354.2188
    GSS: government should help payIndependents198957.948.467.4123
    GSS: government should help payIndependents199356.546.866.2128
    GSS: government should help payIndependents199444.637.451.8228
    GSS: government should help payIndependents199653.947.360.4293
    GSS: government should help payIndependents199851.344.658.1293
    GSS: government should help payIndependents200052.946.958.8339
    GSS: government should help payIndependents200254.545.363.8171
    GSS: government should help payIndependents200656.650.762.4430
    GSS: government should help payIndependents200856.047.964.1207
    GSS: government should help payIndependents201050.642.558.7230
    GSS: government should help payIndependents201248.139.956.2233
    GSS: government should help payIndependents201450.243.956.5335
    GSS: government should help payIndependents201645.338.152.6306
    GSS: government should help payIndependents201849.341.557.2254
    GSS: government should help payIndependents202148.743.653.8531
    GSS: government should help payIndependents202260.053.566.6534
    GSS: government should help payIndependents202455.749.761.6537
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans197539.634.644.6441
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans198331.726.836.6522
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans198435.830.441.1506
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans198638.133.542.7517
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans198739.134.343.8556
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans198843.237.748.7384
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans198946.841.452.2401
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans199051.545.757.3360
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans199148.343.053.6419
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans199341.335.946.6399
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans199432.829.136.5754
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans199634.931.038.9678
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans199837.133.141.1661
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans200033.929.838.0641
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans200233.026.939.0300
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans200442.436.348.6330
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans200635.330.939.6659
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans200834.929.640.2440
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans201021.016.325.8417
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans201226.521.032.0390
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans201419.415.423.4509
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans201625.621.529.7606
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans201833.728.239.1527
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans202128.424.732.1818
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans202236.030.541.4764
    GSS: government should help payRepublicans202430.525.835.2712
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents197362.760.065.41,445
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents197466.363.669.01,426
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents197565.462.768.11,425
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents197663.160.465.91,441
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents197758.255.461.01,454
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents197857.554.360.71,471
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents198057.854.661.01,407
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents198259.856.862.81,761
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents198359.956.763.01,531
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents198459.954.765.1465
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents198564.460.168.7727
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents198660.055.964.0702
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents198770.966.475.4589
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents198869.365.573.2692
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents198970.066.273.7738
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents199073.269.477.0653
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents199170.967.274.6729
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents199375.071.578.5768
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents199466.964.169.61,440
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents199667.564.770.21,394
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents199867.864.970.61,345
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents200071.869.174.51,379
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents200272.870.175.61,336
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents200477.975.380.51,382
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents200673.570.776.21,451
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents200876.573.479.7973
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents201058.754.962.4988
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents201259.755.863.6969
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents201457.554.360.71,240
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents201663.059.966.11,405
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents201870.767.374.11,156
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents202166.063.468.61,966
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents202268.364.871.81,747
    GSS: spending too littleAll respondents202473.870.876.71,645
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats197367.163.470.7771
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats197468.164.571.7795
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats197569.566.073.1794
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats197667.363.770.9805
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats197763.059.366.6840
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats197863.559.367.8776
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats198066.262.070.5731
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats198264.260.368.01,060
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats198367.363.171.5820
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats198468.761.975.5243
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats198569.263.075.4340
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats198664.959.470.3363
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats198775.670.081.2340
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats198872.166.877.5339
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats198972.867.478.3345
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats199076.971.582.3288
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats199176.971.882.1325
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats199381.977.386.4357
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats199477.774.281.1705
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats199676.072.279.7628
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats199874.770.878.6607
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats200077.473.681.1612
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats200280.176.284.1570
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats200484.380.887.7613
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats200681.477.785.1654
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats200883.479.587.3479
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats201069.964.775.0458
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats201268.963.774.1476
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats201467.863.472.2581
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats201670.265.974.4663
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats201883.679.587.6498
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats202184.281.187.2868
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats202280.475.885.0719
    GSS: spending too littleDemocrats202479.875.284.4622
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents197362.954.071.7139
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents197467.859.176.5138
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents197567.660.275.0186
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents197661.154.168.1228
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents197756.247.764.6161
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents197862.654.271.1210
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents198057.249.165.3232
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents198264.856.772.9204
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents199470.662.678.6168
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents199678.071.684.4215
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents199867.060.073.9236
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents200074.768.980.6283
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents200275.369.181.6255
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents200480.774.686.9211
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents200673.767.380.1289
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents200875.167.383.0162
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents201065.756.774.6168
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents201260.151.169.1187
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents201459.552.167.0230
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents201660.351.968.7230
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents201867.659.575.6213
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents202162.656.968.4411
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents202272.565.879.2421
    GSS: spending too littleIndependents202478.673.284.0429
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans197353.648.858.5471
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans197461.256.266.3417
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans197557.152.062.2431
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans197655.750.361.0400
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans197748.943.854.1437
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans197845.039.350.8471
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans198044.338.849.8433
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans198250.144.555.6478
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans198348.643.453.8525
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans198445.736.854.7161
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans198558.351.465.2299
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans198650.243.457.1251
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans198760.452.168.6177
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans198865.458.971.9259
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans198962.256.068.3294
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans199069.963.975.9284
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans199165.059.070.9306
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans199364.658.570.7305
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans199452.948.157.8529
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans199654.850.159.4525
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans199860.655.865.5468
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans200062.657.667.5456
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans200264.059.168.9472
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans200469.965.374.6537
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans200663.658.568.6476
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans200867.761.573.9308
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans201040.734.347.0334
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans201243.836.551.1276
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans201442.136.447.9384
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans201654.849.460.2466
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans201860.153.866.5400
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans202142.537.747.3599
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans202250.643.457.8529
    GSS: spending too littleRepublicans202464.458.970.0533

    The Republican line ends lower in 2024 than it began in 1970 and the Democratic line ends higher. The grey lines are independents and all respondents. Bands are 95% intervals, and the shaded bands mark the Clinton plan and the ACA debate and passage. The GSS views show the help-pay and spending questions, whose levels are not comparable with these. Values in Table 4.

    Note: An independent cell is drawn only where it has at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100, so some independent points are missing, in the ANES view in 1984, 2000, 2004 and 2008.Note: The ANES counts points 1 to 3 of the seven-point scale, the GSS help-pay view counts points 1 and 2 of the five-point scale, and the GSS spending view counts the answer too little. The ANES scale was asked of a subsample in 1972, 1984, 2000 and 2008, and the midpoint of the scale stays in the denominator.Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1970-2024, and General Social Survey, 1973-2024; weighted (weight, VCF0009z; weight_use)

    What these surveys cannot tell you

    Each survey is treated as its own sample, so a gap can widen because people change their view, change their party or are replaced by new adults, and the surveys cannot say which. The 2020 ANES study includes re-interviews of 2016 respondents and the 2024 study includes a panel outside its fresh samples, and the intervals for changes that involve those studies treat the samples as independent. The government side of the ANES scale is a choice of where to cut it. Counting only the end of the scale and the point beside it gives a first change between periods whose interval includes zero. The second change and the fall in the Republican share hold under every cut tested. The 2020 ANES has no mode weights, so the 2016 to 2020 step cannot be split by mode. The CES intervals say nothing about who chose to join its panel, and neither the ANES nor the GSS measures how much respondents care about the issue.


    Go deeper

    • The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
    • Tables: every figure of the report as a table.
    • Issues: the explorer for this part.

    Data sources

    • ANES Cumulative Data FileCumulative Data File 1948-2024, government health insurance scale (VCF0806) in the 16 studies from 1970 to 2024; mode weights for 2012, 2016 and 2024Years: 1948-2024 (33 study years; even years only after 2004; no 2006, 2010 or 2014 study) · Weights: weight (VCF0009z); weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode split · License: Free download after accepting the ANES terms of use; cite the release.
    • General Social SurveyCumulative data 1972-2024: helpsick (26 surveys, 1975-2024) and natheal (34 surveys, 1973-2024); interview mode and interview date joined from the raw fileYears: 1972-2024 (35 study years) · Weights: weight_use (wtssnrps from 2004, wtssps before) · License: See the provider's terms of use.
    • Cooperative Election StudyCumulative CES policy preferences, five health items 2012-2021, with the loader's 2014 recode of the ACA repeal itemYears: 2006-2024 (every year; self-reported turnout is available in the 10 even years) · Weights: weight (single-wave weight) · License: See the provider's terms of use.

    All data sources

    References

    1. Skocpol, Theda (1996). Boomerang: Clinton's Health Security Effort and the Turn Against Government in U.S. Politics. W. W. Norton.
    2. United States Congress (2010). Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, Public Law 111-148. Approved 23 March 2010. www.govinfo.gov/app/details/PLAW-111publ148
    3. American National Election Studies (2021). ANES 2020 Time Series Study Full Release: User Guide and Codebook. Stanford University and the University of Michigan. electionstudies.org/data-center/2020-time-series-study/
    4. Dagonel, Angelo (2023). Guide to the Cumulative CES Policy Preferences. Harvard Dataverse, Cumulative CES Policy Preferences, version 3 (guide last updated 2023-01-18). doi:10.7910/DVN/OSXDQO
    5. Tesler, Michael (2012). The Spillover of Racialization into Health Care: How President Obama Polarized Public Opinion by Racial Attitudes and Race. American Journal of Political Science 56(3): 690-704. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00577.x

    How to cite

    @misc{singh2026healthcare,
      author = {Singh, Vishal},
      title = {Health care},
      year = {2026},
      url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/health-care},
      note = {In The Public Mind. Published 3 October 2026.}
    }