Distance from the national vote, 1868 to 2024

In 2024, 56.5%56.5% percent of the election's two-party votesEstimandshare of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national marginn3,113Weightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties with two-party returns, Alaska excludedPeriod2024SourceCounty election returns of the two-party votes for president were cast in counties whose two-party marginCounty two-party marginThe Democratic vote minus the Republican vote, divided by the sum of the two, so a positive value is a Democratic lead. Votes for other candidates are left out. differed from the national margin by 2020 percentage points of two-party marginEstimanddistance from the national margin that makes a county farWeightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties with two-party returns, Alaska excludedPeriod1868-2024SourceCounty election returns pointsPercentage pointThe unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused. or more, toward either party. In 1976 the share was 25.5%25.5% percent of the election's two-party votesEstimandshare of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national marginn3,113Weightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties with two-party returns, Alaska excludedPeriod1976SourceCounty election returns, the lowest in any presidential election from 1868 to 2024. The margin is the gap between the two parties' shares of the votes they split between them, and this chapter calls a county that far from the national margin a far county. Measuring distance from the nation rather than from an even split keeps a national landslide from reading as a geographic one. Against an even split, the median county's margin, whichever party won it, was 14.414.4 points of two-party marginEstimandmedian over counties of the absolute county two-party marginWeightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties with two-party returns, Alaska excludedPeriod1976SourceCounty election returnsNoteRaw basis: the county's own margin, not its margin relative to the nation; each county counts once. points in 1976 and 43.943.9 points of two-party marginEstimandmedian over counties of the absolute county two-party marginWeightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties with two-party returns, Alaska excludedPeriod2024SourceCounty election returnsNoteRaw basis: the county's own margin, not its margin relative to the nation; each county counts once. points in 2024, so the median county's own result was also more lopsided in 2024.

Far from the nation, in 1976 and in 2024

The far county is this chapter's version of the landslide county, and it differs from an ordinary landslide county, whose own winning margin is lopsided. When the nation itself splits unevenly, a county at the national margin is lopsided and is not far, and a county far from the nation can have a close contest of its own. The chapter counts the two-party votes cast in far counties as a share of all two-party votes in the election.

The rise from the 1976 low to the 2024 share came between 1976 and 2016, and it has not continued since; outside the third-party years, 2016, 2020 and 2024 hold the three highest shares in the record. The map shows where the far counties of 2024 are, and the slider takes it back to 1976.

Figure 1

In 2024, 79.1% of counties were 20 or more points from the national margin, against 37.3% in 1976

County two-party margin minus the national two-party margin of the same election, percentage points (positive is more Democratic than the nation), seven presidential elections from 1876 to 2024

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County margin minus national margin, points (negative is more Republican, positive is more Democratic)

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• Alaska draws as no data. Its election returns are reported by election district, and the district codes cannot be matched to boroughs and census areas.

Full counts, with no sampling error

These are counted votes, not survey estimates. The returns cover every county with a usable two-party return in each presidential election from 1868 to 2024. They come from the Algara and Amlani county file for 1868 to 2020 [1] and from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024. Alaska is left out, and the District of Columbia enters in 1964. A full count has no sampling error, so the chapter's shares and counts carry no intervals. A difference between two of them comes from the definitions and the set of counties rather than from chance. The qualification that matters is the county itself. Counties are as reported in each election and their boundaries are not harmonized, and a county's margin records where votes were cast and not who cast them. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.

The rise is measured from a trough

The far county is not new. Figure 2 follows the share of votes cast in far counties through every election since 1868. The share was 48%48.1% percent of the election's two-party votesEstimandshare of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national marginn2,723Weightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties with two-party returns, Alaska excludedPeriod1904SourceCounty election returns in 1904, in the years of the Solid South. The highest value in the whole series belongs to 1924, a third-party year, when the two-party margin leaves the third-party votes out and the share describes the two major parties' voters only. From 1928 to 1972 the elections that are not third-party years all sit above the 1976 value. The low of 1976 is a trough below the run of elections before it, and the rise to 2016 is measured from that trough. Even so, 2024, the lowest of the three shares since 2016, lies above the top of the 1928 to 1972 range.

Figure 2

The share of votes cast in counties far from the national margin rose from 25.5% in 1976 to 58.8% in 2016 and was 56.5% in 2024

Share of two-party votes, or of counties in the second view, at least 20 (upper line) and 40 (lower line) points from the national margin of the same election, percent, 1868 to 2024

Share of votesShare of counties

Share of votes in counties far from the national margin (%)

Show data

Data for The share of votes cast in counties far from the national margin rose from 25.5% in 1976 to 58.8% in 2016 and was 56.5% in 2024

Counted by	Election	Distance from national margin	Share (%)	Counties	Note
Votes	1868	20+ points	42.3	1,696	n/a
Votes	1868	40+ points	17.9	1,696	n/a
Votes	1872	20+ points	50.8	2,160	n/a
Votes	1872	40+ points	20.0	2,160	n/a
Votes	1876	20+ points	38.1	2,230	n/a
Votes	1876	40+ points	12.4	2,230	n/a
Votes	1880	20+ points	38.1	2,291	n/a
Votes	1880	40+ points	12.2	2,291	n/a
Votes	1884	20+ points	30.8	2,351	n/a
Votes	1884	40+ points	9.4	2,351	n/a
Votes	1888	20+ points	29.9	2,429	n/a
Votes	1888	40+ points	9.1	2,429	n/a
Votes	1892	20+ points	33.4	2,658	Third-party year
Votes	1892	40+ points	13.8	2,658	Third-party year
Votes	1896	20+ points	41.1	2,715	n/a
Votes	1896	40+ points	16.9	2,715	n/a
Votes	1900	20+ points	32.9	2,711	n/a
Votes	1900	40+ points	11.7	2,711	n/a
Votes	1904	20+ points	48.1	2,723	n/a
Votes	1904	40+ points	17.7	2,723	n/a
Votes	1908	20+ points	32.9	2,856	n/a
Votes	1908	40+ points	10.0	2,856	n/a
Votes	1912	20+ points	49.9	2,943	Third-party year
Votes	1912	40+ points	18.9	2,943	Third-party year
Votes	1916	20+ points	29.8	3,022	n/a
Votes	1916	40+ points	8.9	3,022	n/a
Votes	1920	20+ points	44.0	3,054	n/a
Votes	1920	40+ points	12.2	3,054	n/a
Votes	1924	20+ points	61.3	3,083	Third-party year
Votes	1924	40+ points	24.1	3,083	Third-party year
Votes	1928	20+ points	39.0	3,097	n/a
Votes	1928	40+ points	12.1	3,097	n/a
Votes	1932	20+ points	40.9	3,096	n/a
Votes	1932	40+ points	11.2	3,096	n/a
Votes	1936	20+ points	39.2	3,095	n/a
Votes	1936	40+ points	10.2	3,095	n/a
Votes	1940	20+ points	33.3	3,094	n/a
Votes	1940	40+ points	11.6	3,094	n/a
Votes	1944	20+ points	33.9	3,095	n/a
Votes	1944	40+ points	10.7	3,095	n/a
Votes	1948	20+ points	28.6	3,096	Third-party year
Votes	1948	40+ points	8.3	3,096	Third-party year
Votes	1952	20+ points	36.8	3,098	n/a
Votes	1952	40+ points	6.3	3,098	n/a
Votes	1956	20+ points	32.5	3,100	n/a
Votes	1956	40+ points	4.9	3,100	n/a
Votes	1960	20+ points	32.8	3,105	n/a
Votes	1960	40+ points	4.2	3,105	n/a
Votes	1964	20+ points	32.5	3,107	n/a
Votes	1964	40+ points	5.5	3,107	n/a
Votes	1968	20+ points	37.2	3,111	Third-party year
Votes	1968	40+ points	8.9	3,111	Third-party year
Votes	1972	20+ points	31.6	3,110	n/a
Votes	1972	40+ points	3.9	3,110	n/a
Votes	1976	20+ points	25.5	3,113	n/a
Votes	1976	40+ points	3.7	3,113	n/a
Votes	1980	20+ points	33.8	3,112	n/a
Votes	1980	40+ points	4.3	3,112	n/a
Votes	1984	20+ points	35.9	3,114	n/a
Votes	1984	40+ points	5.9	3,114	n/a
Votes	1988	20+ points	35.8	3,114	n/a
Votes	1988	40+ points	5.6	3,114	n/a
Votes	1992	20+ points	38.6	3,115	Third-party year
Votes	1992	40+ points	6.9	3,115	Third-party year
Votes	1996	20+ points	37.9	3,114	Third-party year
Votes	1996	40+ points	7.9	3,114	Third-party year
Votes	2000	20+ points	45.3	3,114	n/a
Votes	2000	40+ points	13.0	3,114	n/a
Votes	2004	20+ points	46.9	3,114	n/a
Votes	2004	40+ points	14.7	3,114	n/a
Votes	2008	20+ points	47.3	3,114	n/a
Votes	2008	40+ points	18.1	3,114	n/a
Votes	2012	20+ points	50.5	3,114	n/a
Votes	2012	40+ points	20.5	3,114	n/a
Votes	2016	20+ points	58.8	3,113	n/a
Votes	2016	40+ points	30.2	3,113	n/a
Votes	2020	20+ points	56.6	3,113	n/a
Votes	2020	40+ points	29.6	3,113	n/a
Votes	2024	20+ points	56.5	3,113	n/a
Votes	2024	40+ points	25.2	3,113	n/a
Counties	1868	20+ points	55.9	1,696	n/a
Counties	1868	40+ points	30.8	1,696	n/a
Counties	1872	20+ points	61.2	2,160	n/a
Counties	1872	40+ points	36.3	2,160	n/a
Counties	1876	20+ points	56.4	2,230	n/a
Counties	1876	40+ points	30.4	2,230	n/a
Counties	1880	20+ points	56.4	2,291	n/a
Counties	1880	40+ points	29.7	2,291	n/a
Counties	1884	20+ points	49.3	2,351	n/a
Counties	1884	40+ points	23.2	2,351	n/a
Counties	1888	20+ points	50.1	2,429	n/a
Counties	1888	40+ points	23.6	2,429	n/a
Counties	1892	20+ points	59.0	2,658	Third-party year
Counties	1892	40+ points	39.6	2,658	Third-party year
Counties	1896	20+ points	56.6	2,715	n/a
Counties	1896	40+ points	32.3	2,715	n/a
Counties	1900	20+ points	52.1	2,711	n/a
Counties	1900	40+ points	27.4	2,711	n/a
Counties	1904	20+ points	67.2	2,723	n/a
Counties	1904	40+ points	39.9	2,723	n/a
Counties	1908	20+ points	52.0	2,856	n/a
Counties	1908	40+ points	29.9	2,856	n/a
Counties	1912	20+ points	61.1	2,943	Third-party year
Counties	1912	40+ points	35.3	2,943	Third-party year
Counties	1916	20+ points	51.2	3,022	n/a
Counties	1916	40+ points	31.0	3,022	n/a
Counties	1920	20+ points	60.3	3,054	n/a
Counties	1920	40+ points	36.2	3,054	n/a
Counties	1924	20+ points	71.9	3,083	Third-party year
Counties	1924	40+ points	46.2	3,083	Third-party year
Counties	1928	20+ points	50.2	3,097	n/a
Counties	1928	40+ points	22.2	3,097	n/a
Counties	1932	20+ points	54.3	3,096	n/a
Counties	1932	40+ points	33.8	3,096	n/a
Counties	1936	20+ points	56.5	3,095	n/a
Counties	1936	40+ points	30.7	3,095	n/a
Counties	1940	20+ points	62.3	3,094	n/a
Counties	1940	40+ points	36.1	3,094	n/a
Counties	1944	20+ points	62.8	3,095	n/a
Counties	1944	40+ points	34.8	3,095	n/a
Counties	1948	20+ points	54.3	3,096	Third-party year
Counties	1948	40+ points	30.7	3,096	Third-party year
Counties	1952	20+ points	56.8	3,098	n/a
Counties	1952	40+ points	22.9	3,098	n/a
Counties	1956	20+ points	46.2	3,100	n/a
Counties	1956	40+ points	18.3	3,100	n/a
Counties	1960	20+ points	47.7	3,105	n/a
Counties	1960	40+ points	14.6	3,105	n/a
Counties	1964	20+ points	40.2	3,107	n/a
Counties	1964	40+ points	13.7	3,107	n/a
Counties	1968	20+ points	49.8	3,111	Third-party year
Counties	1968	40+ points	16.0	3,111	Third-party year
Counties	1972	20+ points	41.2	3,110	n/a
Counties	1972	40+ points	7.3	3,110	n/a
Counties	1976	20+ points	37.3	3,113	n/a
Counties	1976	40+ points	9.8	3,113	n/a
Counties	1980	20+ points	44.0	3,112	n/a
Counties	1980	40+ points	12.5	3,112	n/a
Counties	1984	20+ points	37.7	3,114	n/a
Counties	1984	40+ points	7.3	3,114	n/a
Counties	1988	20+ points	35.8	3,114	n/a
Counties	1988	40+ points	5.4	3,114	n/a
Counties	1992	20+ points	38.9	3,115	Third-party year
Counties	1992	40+ points	9.1	3,115	Third-party year
Counties	1996	20+ points	42.1	3,114	Third-party year
Counties	1996	40+ points	11.9	3,114	Third-party year
Counties	2000	20+ points	53.4	3,114	n/a
Counties	2000	40+ points	19.6	3,114	n/a
Counties	2004	20+ points	56.9	3,114	n/a
Counties	2004	40+ points	22.3	3,114	n/a
Counties	2008	20+ points	62.7	3,114	n/a
Counties	2008	40+ points	31.9	3,114	n/a
Counties	2012	20+ points	67.9	3,114	n/a
Counties	2012	40+ points	36.7	3,114	n/a
Counties	2016	20+ points	80.1	3,113	n/a
Counties	2016	40+ points	56.1	3,113	n/a
Counties	2020	20+ points	80.2	3,113	n/a
Counties	2020	40+ points	56.6	3,113	n/a
Counties	2024	20+ points	79.1	3,113	n/a
Counties	2024	40+ points	54.0	3,113	n/a

From one far region to every region

The former Confederacy, the states that seceded and were readmitted after the Civil War, stood apart from the rest of the country until 1944. Figure 3 gives the share of each region's own votes cast in far counties, measured against the national margin of the election and not the region's own. In every election from 1892 through 1944 except 1928, at least 67%67.0% percent of the election's two-party votesEstimandlowest share of the region's votes cast in far countiesWeightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excludedPeriod1892-1944 except 1928SourceCounty election returns of the former Confederacy's votes were cast in far counties. In 1904 the share was 86%86.3% percent of the election's two-party votesEstimandshare of the region's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national marginn1,000Weightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excludedPeriod1904SourceCounty election returns, with the region's far counties on the Democratic side of the nation. That is the Solid South, the one-party region whose politics Key described [2].

After 1944 the Southern share fell. It was 58%58.0% percent of the election's two-party votesEstimandshare of the region's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national marginn1,142Weightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excludedPeriod2024SourceCounty election returns in 2024, below its 1904 level, and its far counties now lean the other way, toward the Republican side of the nation. The rest of the country reached 56%55.7% percent of the election's two-party votesEstimandshare of the region's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national marginn1,971Weightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties outside the former Confederacy, Alaska excludedPeriod2024SourceCounty election returns in 2024. In the five-region view, every region is above 50%50% percent of the election's two-party votesEstimandshare of a region's votes that marks a majorityWeightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties with two-party returns, Alaska excludedPeriod1868-2024SourceCounty election returns in 2024, from the Northeast at the bottom to Other South, the rest of the Census South, at the top; in 1904 only the South was.

Figure 3

The former Confederacy fell from 86.3% of its votes in far counties in 1904 to 58.0% in 2024, and the rest of the country rose to 55.7%

Share of a region's two-party votes cast in counties at least 20 points from the national margin, percent, presidential elections 1868 to 2024

Former Confederacy and the restFive regions

Share of the region's votes in far counties (%)

Show data

Data for The former Confederacy fell from 86.3% of its votes in far counties in 1904 to 58.0% in 2024, and the rest of the country rose to 55.7%

View	Election	Region	Share of region's votes in far counties (%)	Region's share of national votes (%)	Counties	Note
Two groups	1868	Confederacy	63.1	14.5	485	n/a
Five regions	1868	Confederacy	63.1	14.5	485	n/a
Five regions	1868	Other South	75.4	6.0	190	n/a
Five regions	1868	Northeast	38.6	38.6	214	n/a
Five regions	1868	Midwest	34.8	38.4	725	n/a
Five regions	1868	West	13.2	2.5	82	n/a
Two groups	1868	Rest of US	38.8	85.5	1,211	n/a
Two groups	1872	Confederacy	58.0	22.2	871	n/a
Five regions	1872	Confederacy	58.0	22.2	871	n/a
Five regions	1872	Other South	51.6	7.2	194	n/a
Five regions	1872	Northeast	37.2	33.3	214	n/a
Five regions	1872	Midwest	57.2	35.3	797	n/a
Five regions	1872	West	79.8	2.0	84	n/a
Two groups	1872	Rest of US	48.7	77.8	1,289	n/a
Two groups	1876	Confederacy	59.3	21.5	901	n/a
Five regions	1876	Confederacy	59.3	21.5	901	n/a
Five regions	1876	Other South	31.3	7.2	197	n/a
Five regions	1876	Northeast	29.4	31.8	214	n/a
Five regions	1876	Midwest	36.0	37.1	829	n/a
Five regions	1876	West	17.3	2.5	89	n/a
Two groups	1876	Rest of US	32.3	78.5	1,329	n/a
Two groups	1880	Confederacy	61.0	19.0	918	n/a
Five regions	1880	Confederacy	61.0	19.0	918	n/a
Five regions	1880	Other South	27.6	6.8	188	n/a
Five regions	1880	Northeast	28.5	32.8	215	n/a
Five regions	1880	Midwest	39.1	38.4	850	n/a
Five regions	1880	West	10.6	3.1	120	n/a
Two groups	1880	Rest of US	32.8	81.0	1,373	n/a
Two groups	1884	Confederacy	57.0	19.4	945	n/a
Five regions	1884	Confederacy	57.0	19.4	945	n/a
Five regions	1884	Other South	23.9	7.0	199	n/a
Five regions	1884	Northeast	18.8	30.2	215	n/a
Five regions	1884	Midwest	29.5	40.1	862	n/a
Five regions	1884	West	15.3	3.3	130	n/a
Two groups	1884	Rest of US	24.4	80.6	1,406	n/a
Two groups	1888	Confederacy	59.0	18.2	969	n/a
Five regions	1888	Confederacy	59.0	18.2	969	n/a
Five regions	1888	Other South	19.6	7.4	200	n/a
Five regions	1888	Northeast	19.2	30.2	212	n/a
Five regions	1888	Midwest	27.9	40.5	911	n/a
Five regions	1888	West	15.5	3.7	137	n/a
Two groups	1888	Rest of US	23.4	81.8	1,460	n/a
Two groups	1892	Confederacy	70.8	16.0	999	Third-party year
Five regions	1892	Confederacy	70.8	16.0	999	Third-party year
Five regions	1892	Other South	19.4	7.5	200	Third-party year
Five regions	1892	Northeast	26.0	31.6	215	Third-party year
Five regions	1892	Midwest	27.5	40.8	1,012	Third-party year
Five regions	1892	West	29.6	4.1	232	Third-party year
Two groups	1892	Rest of US	26.3	84.0	1,659	Third-party year
Two groups	1896	Confederacy	67.0	15.7	1,006	n/a
Five regions	1896	Confederacy	67.0	15.7	1,006	n/a
Five regions	1896	Other South	22.8	7.7	201	n/a
Five regions	1896	Northeast	47.6	28.0	213	n/a
Five regions	1896	Midwest	28.2	42.3	1,018	n/a
Five regions	1896	West	56.8	6.3	277	n/a
Two groups	1896	Rest of US	36.3	84.3	1,709	n/a
Two groups	1900	Confederacy	69.0	13.1	994	n/a
Five regions	1900	Confederacy	69.0	13.1	994	n/a
Five regions	1900	Other South	22.0	8.0	201	n/a
Five regions	1900	Northeast	31.1	28.7	216	n/a
Five regions	1900	Midwest	25.7	43.3	1,018	n/a
Five regions	1900	West	29.9	6.9	282	n/a
Two groups	1900	Rest of US	27.5	86.9	1,717	n/a
Two groups	1904	Confederacy	86.3	10.2	1,000	n/a
Five regions	1904	Confederacy	86.3	10.2	1,000	n/a
Five regions	1904	Other South	61.7	7.9	201	n/a
Five regions	1904	Northeast	37.5	31.5	216	n/a
Five regions	1904	Midwest	44.5	42.5	1,020	n/a
Five regions	1904	West	46.8	7.8	286	n/a
Two groups	1904	Rest of US	43.7	89.8	1,723	n/a
Two groups	1908	Confederacy	75.8	10.8	1,045	n/a
Five regions	1908	Confederacy	75.8	10.8	1,045	n/a
Five regions	1908	Other South	29.5	8.8	276	n/a
Five regions	1908	Northeast	33.5	29.1	216	n/a
Five regions	1908	Midwest	23.5	43.0	1,027	n/a
Five regions	1908	West	27.4	8.3	292	n/a
Two groups	1908	Rest of US	27.7	89.2	1,811	n/a
Two groups	1912	Confederacy	81.4	12.5	1,078	Third-party year
Five regions	1912	Confederacy	81.4	12.5	1,078	Third-party year
Five regions	1912	Other South	47.3	10.1	279	Third-party year
Five regions	1912	Northeast	51.2	28.3	216	Third-party year
Five regions	1912	Midwest	36.6	39.8	1,043	Third-party year
Five regions	1912	West	63.9	9.3	327	Third-party year
Two groups	1912	Rest of US	45.4	87.5	1,865	Third-party year
Two groups	1916	Confederacy	79.2	10.1	1,100	n/a
Five regions	1916	Confederacy	79.2	10.1	1,100	n/a
Five regions	1916	Other South	23.6	8.2	279	n/a
Five regions	1916	Northeast	31.5	24.9	217	n/a
Five regions	1916	Midwest	20.7	43.1	1,049	n/a
Five regions	1916	West	22.4	13.7	377	n/a
Two groups	1916	Rest of US	24.2	89.9	1,922	n/a
Two groups	1920	Confederacy	84.4	10.0	1,105	n/a
Five regions	1920	Confederacy	84.4	10.0	1,105	n/a
Five regions	1920	Other South	42.1	10.2	279	n/a
Five regions	1920	Northeast	28.8	28.1	217	n/a
Five regions	1920	Midwest	46.8	42.5	1,051	n/a
Five regions	1920	West	35.4	9.2	402	n/a
Two groups	1920	Rest of US	39.4	90.0	1,949	n/a
Two groups	1924	Confederacy	94.1	9.9	1,126	Third-party year
Five regions	1924	Confederacy	94.1	9.9	1,126	Third-party year
Five regions	1924	Other South	77.0	9.6	279	Third-party year
Five regions	1924	Northeast	44.6	31.0	217	Third-party year
Five regions	1924	Midwest	61.4	40.6	1,056	Third-party year
Five regions	1924	West	65.4	8.8	405	Third-party year
Two groups	1924	Rest of US	57.7	90.1	1,957	Third-party year
Two groups	1928	Confederacy	52.9	9.1	1,134	n/a
Five regions	1928	Confederacy	52.9	9.1	1,134	n/a
Five regions	1928	Other South	24.2	8.4	279	n/a
Five regions	1928	Northeast	46.7	32.4	217	n/a
Five regions	1928	Midwest	33.1	39.7	1,057	n/a
Five regions	1928	West	37.9	10.4	410	n/a
Two groups	1928	Rest of US	37.6	90.9	1,963	n/a
Two groups	1932	Confederacy	81.4	9.7	1,133	n/a
Five regions	1932	Confederacy	81.4	9.7	1,133	n/a
Five regions	1932	Other South	30.9	8.4	279	n/a
Five regions	1932	Northeast	69.3	30.4	217	n/a
Five regions	1932	Midwest	20.2	39.9	1,057	n/a
Five regions	1932	West	11.7	11.6	410	n/a
Two groups	1932	Rest of US	36.6	90.3	1,963	n/a
Two groups	1936	Confederacy	80.6	9.4	1,133	n/a
Five regions	1936	Confederacy	80.6	9.4	1,133	n/a
Five regions	1936	Other South	20.5	8.0	279	n/a
Five regions	1936	Northeast	51.3	32.3	217	n/a
Five regions	1936	Midwest	27.1	38.7	1,056	n/a
Five regions	1936	West	25.1	11.7	410	n/a
Two groups	1936	Rest of US	34.9	90.6	1,962	n/a
Two groups	1940	Confederacy	85.0	9.6	1,132	n/a
Five regions	1940	Confederacy	85.0	9.6	1,132	n/a
Five regions	1940	Other South	24.9	7.0	279	n/a
Five regions	1940	Northeast	29.8	31.9	217	n/a
Five regions	1940	Midwest	29.8	38.8	1,056	n/a
Five regions	1940	West	18.0	12.7	410	n/a
Two groups	1940	Rest of US	27.8	90.4	1,962	n/a
Two groups	1944	Confederacy	80.6	9.7	1,133	n/a
Five regions	1944	Confederacy	80.6	9.7	1,133	n/a
Five regions	1944	Other South	27.8	7.0	279	n/a
Five regions	1944	Northeast	28.4	31.6	217	n/a
Five regions	1944	Midwest	34.5	38.1	1,056	n/a
Five regions	1944	West	15.0	13.6	410	n/a
Two groups	1944	Rest of US	28.9	90.3	1,962	n/a
Two groups	1948	Confederacy	62.8	9.0	1,134	Third-party year
Five regions	1948	Confederacy	62.8	9.0	1,134	Third-party year
Five regions	1948	Other South	34.7	7.0	279	Third-party year
Five regions	1948	Northeast	31.3	31.9	217	Third-party year
Five regions	1948	Midwest	23.3	37.2	1,056	Third-party year
Five regions	1948	West	12.7	14.9	410	Third-party year
Two groups	1948	Rest of US	25.2	91.0	1,962	Third-party year
Two groups	1952	Confederacy	44.9	13.8	1,135	n/a
Five regions	1952	Confederacy	44.9	13.8	1,135	n/a
Five regions	1952	Other South	29.8	6.4	279	n/a
Five regions	1952	Northeast	45.9	30.1	217	n/a
Five regions	1952	Midwest	36.7	34.7	1,056	n/a
Five regions	1952	West	14.3	15.0	411	n/a
Two groups	1952	Rest of US	35.5	86.2	1,963	n/a
Two groups	1956	Confederacy	42.2	13.5	1,138	n/a
Five regions	1956	Confederacy	42.2	13.5	1,138	n/a
Five regions	1956	Other South	27.7	6.2	279	n/a
Five regions	1956	Northeast	49.0	30.4	217	n/a
Five regions	1956	Midwest	26.0	34.2	1,055	n/a
Five regions	1956	West	8.1	15.6	411	n/a
Two groups	1956	Rest of US	31.0	86.5	1,962	n/a
Two groups	1960	Confederacy	42.3	14.5	1,139	n/a
Five regions	1960	Confederacy	42.3	14.5	1,139	n/a
Five regions	1960	Other South	36.0	6.0	279	n/a
Five regions	1960	Northeast	38.2	29.3	217	n/a
Five regions	1960	Midwest	35.2	33.6	1,055	n/a
Five regions	1960	West	9.2	16.6	415	n/a
Two groups	1960	Rest of US	31.2	85.5	1,966	n/a
Two groups	1964	Confederacy	50.3	17.5	1,139	n/a
Five regions	1964	Confederacy	50.3	17.5	1,139	n/a
Five regions	1964	Other South	35.3	6.1	280	n/a
Five regions	1964	Northeast	41.2	27.8	217	n/a
Five regions	1964	Midwest	22.9	31.5	1,056	n/a
Five regions	1964	West	17.1	17.2	415	n/a
Two groups	1964	Rest of US	28.8	82.5	1,968	n/a
Two groups	1968	Confederacy	45.8	16.1	1,143	Third-party year
Five regions	1968	Confederacy	45.8	16.1	1,143	Third-party year
Five regions	1968	Other South	39.9	5.9	280	Third-party year
Five regions	1968	Northeast	42.4	27.9	217	Third-party year
Five regions	1968	Midwest	34.1	31.8	1,056	Third-party year
Five regions	1968	West	26.0	18.3	415	Third-party year
Two groups	1968	Rest of US	35.5	83.9	1,968	Third-party year
Two groups	1972	Confederacy	46.5	19.9	1,142	n/a
Five regions	1972	Confederacy	46.5	19.9	1,142	n/a
Five regions	1972	Other South	35.9	6.0	280	n/a
Five regions	1972	Northeast	32.4	25.9	217	n/a
Five regions	1972	Midwest	27.2	30.0	1,056	n/a
Five regions	1972	West	19.9	18.2	415	n/a
Two groups	1972	Rest of US	27.9	80.1	1,968	n/a
Two groups	1976	Confederacy	29.6	22.7	1,145	n/a
Five regions	1976	Confederacy	29.6	22.7	1,145	n/a
Five regions	1976	Other South	31.2	6.0	280	n/a
Five regions	1976	Northeast	25.3	24.0	217	n/a
Five regions	1976	Midwest	25.4	29.6	1,056	n/a
Five regions	1976	West	18.8	17.6	415	n/a
Two groups	1976	Rest of US	24.3	77.3	1,968	n/a
Two groups	1980	Confederacy	29.5	25.0	1,145	n/a
Five regions	1980	Confederacy	29.5	25.0	1,145	n/a
Five regions	1980	Other South	40.9	6.1	280	n/a
Five regions	1980	Northeast	26.3	21.7	217	n/a
Five regions	1980	Midwest	37.5	29.2	1,055	n/a
Five regions	1980	West	40.1	18.0	415	n/a
Two groups	1980	Rest of US	35.2	75.0	1,967	n/a
Two groups	1984	Confederacy	32.6	25.3	1,145	n/a
Five regions	1984	Confederacy	32.6	25.3	1,145	n/a
Five regions	1984	Other South	40.6	6.0	280	n/a
Five regions	1984	Northeast	35.3	22.2	217	n/a
Five regions	1984	Midwest	41.6	27.5	1,055	n/a
Five regions	1984	West	31.4	19.0	417	n/a
Two groups	1984	Rest of US	37.1	74.7	1,969	n/a
Two groups	1988	Confederacy	35.2	25.5	1,145	n/a
Five regions	1988	Confederacy	35.2	25.5	1,145	n/a
Five regions	1988	Other South	42.7	5.8	280	n/a
Five regions	1988	Northeast	34.1	21.7	217	n/a
Five regions	1988	Midwest	41.3	27.0	1,055	n/a
Five regions	1988	West	28.8	19.9	417	n/a
Two groups	1988	Rest of US	36.0	74.5	1,969	n/a
Two groups	1992	Confederacy	35.2	27.5	1,145	Third-party year
Five regions	1992	Confederacy	35.2	27.5	1,145	Third-party year
Five regions	1992	Other South	42.1	6.0	280	Third-party year
Five regions	1992	Northeast	34.0	20.8	217	Third-party year
Five regions	1992	Midwest	41.3	26.2	1,055	Third-party year
Five regions	1992	West	43.7	19.5	418	Third-party year
Two groups	1992	Rest of US	39.9	72.5	1,970	Third-party year
Two groups	1996	Confederacy	35.2	28.1	1,144	Third-party year
Five regions	1996	Confederacy	35.2	28.1	1,144	Third-party year
Five regions	1996	Other South	39.3	5.7	280	Third-party year
Five regions	1996	Northeast	37.1	20.2	217	Third-party year
Five regions	1996	Midwest	37.9	25.7	1,055	Third-party year
Five regions	1996	West	42.1	20.3	418	Third-party year
Two groups	1996	Rest of US	39.0	71.9	1,970	Third-party year
Two groups	2000	Confederacy	43.8	28.4	1,144	n/a
Five regions	2000	Confederacy	43.8	28.4	1,144	n/a
Five regions	2000	Other South	54.5	5.8	280	n/a
Five regions	2000	Northeast	43.3	19.8	217	n/a
Five regions	2000	Midwest	43.2	25.7	1,055	n/a
Five regions	2000	West	49.3	20.3	418	n/a
Two groups	2000	Rest of US	45.9	71.6	1,970	n/a
Two groups	2004	Confederacy	49.2	28.9	1,143	n/a
Five regions	2004	Confederacy	49.2	28.9	1,143	n/a
Five regions	2004	Other South	60.2	5.8	280	n/a
Five regions	2004	Northeast	39.7	19.2	217	n/a
Five regions	2004	Midwest	44.2	25.4	1,055	n/a
Five regions	2004	West	49.8	20.8	419	n/a
Two groups	2004	Rest of US	45.9	71.1	1,971	n/a
Two groups	2008	Confederacy	52.3	30.2	1,143	n/a
Five regions	2008	Confederacy	52.3	30.2	1,143	n/a
Five regions	2008	Other South	68.3	5.6	280	n/a
Five regions	2008	Northeast	37.3	18.7	217	n/a
Five regions	2008	Midwest	43.2	24.5	1,055	n/a
Five regions	2008	West	48.4	21.0	419	n/a
Two groups	2008	Rest of US	45.2	69.8	1,971	n/a
Two groups	2012	Confederacy	53.9	30.9	1,143	n/a
Five regions	2012	Confederacy	53.9	30.9	1,143	n/a
Five regions	2012	Other South	71.9	5.6	280	n/a
Five regions	2012	Northeast	43.0	18.2	217	n/a
Five regions	2012	Midwest	46.9	24.2	1,055	n/a
Five regions	2012	West	50.5	21.1	419	n/a
Two groups	2012	Rest of US	49.0	69.1	1,971	n/a
Two groups	2016	Confederacy	65.0	31.8	1,142	n/a
Five regions	2016	Confederacy	65.0	31.8	1,142	n/a
Five regions	2016	Other South	75.9	5.7	280	n/a
Five regions	2016	Northeast	49.8	18.1	217	n/a
Five regions	2016	Midwest	60.5	23.3	1,055	n/a
Five regions	2016	West	50.6	21.1	419	n/a
Two groups	2016	Rest of US	55.9	68.2	1,971	n/a
Two groups	2020	Confederacy	59.6	31.7	1,142	n/a
Five regions	2020	Confederacy	59.6	31.7	1,142	n/a
Five regions	2020	Other South	74.1	5.3	280	n/a
Five regions	2020	Northeast	50.5	17.8	217	n/a
Five regions	2020	Midwest	58.4	22.1	1,055	n/a
Five regions	2020	West	51.3	23.1	419	n/a
Two groups	2020	Rest of US	55.1	68.3	1,971	n/a
Two groups	2024	Confederacy	58.0	32.5	1,142	n/a
Five regions	2024	Confederacy	58.0	32.5	1,142	n/a
Five regions	2024	Other South	70.1	5.3	280	n/a
Five regions	2024	Northeast	52.5	17.7	217	n/a
Five regions	2024	Midwest	56.5	22.2	1,056	n/a
Five regions	2024	West	54.1	22.2	418	n/a
Two groups	2024	Rest of US	55.7	67.5	1,971	n/a

What the far share measures, and what it does not

The far share measures how far counties sit from the nation in one election. Distance from the nation differs from competitiveness, and how close a county's own contest was is better read from its own margin, like the medians that open this essay. The spread could also come from the counties themselves. The number of counties in the returns rose between 1868 and 2024, and smaller units could spread margins more by construction. A fixed panel of counties that report in every election from 1868 has its low in 1976, tied with 1916, and its three highest shares outside the third-party years in 2016, 2020 and 2024 (Table 7). The spread of state margins around the national margin, measured on units that are the same in 1976 and 2024, rose as well. The two checks reduce the concern about unit size and do not remove it. What the returns do not say is why the share rose. Hopkins argues that American political behavior has nationalized [3], and Rodden traces an urban-rural divide in partisan geography [4]. Bishop and Cushing read the growth of landslide counties as people moving to places that share their politics [5], an account of party sortingParty sortingThe alignment of party with other traits, such as ideology, religion, race and place, so that people who share a party also tend to share those traits. by place that Abrams and Fiorina dispute [6]. County returns record where votes were cast and not who cast them, who moved or why, so they cannot rank these accounts.

What these returns cannot tell you

Returns record where votes were cast, and a far county can hold voters of both parties in large numbers. The returns cannot tell voters who changed their choice from people who started or stopped voting or moved in or out, a limit known as ecological inferenceEcological inferenceDrawing a conclusion about individuals from data on groups or places, such as counties. A pattern across counties can differ from the pattern among the people who live in them.. They count votes and not residents, so in the former Confederacy, where the franchise was restricted for much of the period before the Voting Rights Act, the shares describe who voted, not the adult population. The series ends with 2024 and makes no forecast, and the returns cannot say whether the plateau since 2016 will hold.

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Go deeper

• The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
• Tables: every figure of the report as a table.
• Elections, 1976 to 2024: the explorer for this part.

Reading paths that include this chapter:

• Start with the map
• The South

Data sources

• County election returnsCounty presidential returns, 1868-2024: Algara and Amlani (1868-2020) and MIT Election Data and Science Lab (2024), repaired fileYears: President 1868-2024 (40 elections); House and Senate 1990-2024 · Weights: none (full counts); shares of votes weight each county by its two-party votes, shares of counties count each county once · License: The Heideman file is CC BY 4.0 (doi:10.5281/zenodo.22976553), but the state records behind it keep their own terms, and the sites of Florida, Indiana, Colorado and Wisconsin restrict reuse.

All data sources

References

1. Amlani, Sharif; Algara, Carlos (2021). Partisanship & Nationalization in American Elections: Evidence from Presidential, Senatorial, & Gubernatorial Elections in the U.S. Counties, 1872-2020. Electoral Studies 73: 102387. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102387
2. Key, V. O., Jr., with the assistance of Alexander Heard (1949). Southern Politics in State and Nation. Alfred A. Knopf.
3. Hopkins, Daniel J. (2018). The Increasingly United States: How and Why American Political Behavior Nationalized. University of Chicago Press.
4. Rodden, Jonathan A. (2019). Why Cities Lose: The Deep Roots of the Urban-Rural Political Divide. Basic Books.
5. Bishop, Bill, with Robert G. Cushing (2008). The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-Minded America Is Tearing Us Apart. Houghton Mifflin.
6. Abrams, Samuel J.; Fiorina, Morris P. (2012). “The Big Sort” That Wasn’t: A Skeptical Reexamination. PS: Political Science & Politics 45(2): 203-210. doi:10.1017/S1049096512000017

How to cite

@misc{singh2026thelandslidecounty,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Distance from the national vote, 1868 to 2024},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-landslide-county},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 30 September 2026.}
}