Chapter 7.2
Counties where donors and voters diverge
In 570 of 2,839 counties, or 20.1%, the reliable donors of 1980 to 2024 lean opposite to the county's 2020 presidential vote, a count that depends on the definition of divergence.
Yazoo County, Mississippi, gave a majority of its two-party vote to the Democratic candidate for president in 2020, while the donors whose most recent recorded gift came from the county, across giving that runs from 1980 to 2024, average to the right of zero on the CFscoreCFscoreA left-right position estimated from whom a donor gives to, or from who gives to a candidate. Negative values are left and positive values are right, and a donor keeps one score across all their giving. scale (Table 7). A CFscore is a left-right score estimated from the recipients a donor gives to, where negative is left and positive is right. It is a record of giving, and the files say nothing about how any donor voted. Yazoo is one of 1616 countiesEstimandcount of countiesn16Weightsnone (full counts of counties)PopulationDemocratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors, in MississippiPeriod2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024SourceDIME Mississippi counties that voted Democratic in 2020 and have a right-leaning donor pool. The Democratic-voting counties in the country whose donors lean furthest right are mostly Mississippi counties, with counties in Georgia and Louisiana. Whether a county like Yazoo counts as an exception depends on two lines, an even split of the vote and a donor mean of zero, and moving either line changes how many counties cross it.
Two unequal groups of divergent counties
A county's donor lean is the mean CFscore of its reliable donors, the donors who gave to several distinct recipients and whose score is estimated from their own giving rather than inherited from a recipient. The chapter calls a county divergent when it voted Democratic and its donor lean is right of zero, or voted Republican and its donor lean is left of zero. Of the 2,8392,839 countiesEstimandcount of counties in the framen2,839Weightsnone (full counts of counties)Populationcounties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii)Period2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024SourceDIME counties with a large enough pool and a 2020 return, 570570 countiesEstimandcount of counties on the two off-diagonal sides of the sign rulen2,839Weightsnone (full counts of counties)Populationcounties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii)Period2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024SourceDIME, or 20.1%20.1% percent of countiesEstimandshare of counties whose donor lean and vote lean have opposite signsn2,839Weightsnone (full counts of counties)Populationcounties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii)Period2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024SourceDIME, are divergent. The two groups differ in size. 9898 countiesEstimandcount of Democratic-voting counties with a right-leaning donor pooln2,839Weightsnone (full counts of counties)Populationcounties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii)Period2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024SourceDIME counties voted Democratic and have right-leaning donors, and they cluster in the South. 472472 countiesEstimandcount of Republican-voting counties with a left-leaning donor pooln2,839Weightsnone (full counts of counties)Populationcounties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii)Period2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024SourceDIME counties voted Republican and have left-leaning donors, and they appear in every region. Divergent counties cast 16%16.0% percent of two-party votesEstimandshare of two-party votes cast in divergent countiesn2,839Weightstwo-party votes in 2020Populationcounties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii)Period2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024SourceDIME of the two-party votes, a smaller share than their share of counties.
The count depends on the definition, and that qualification belongs beside the finding. The report repeats the count under eight definitions, which change the donor pool, the vote year, the pool floor, the neutral point of the scale or the divergence rule itself. Across them the number of divergent counties runs from 112112 countiesEstimandsmallest count of divergent counties across the eight rowsWeightsnone (full counts of counties)Populationcounties under each of the eight definitions in the definitions table (the frame differs by row)Period2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024SourceDIME to 1,0301,030 countiesEstimandlargest count of divergent counties across the eight rowsWeightsnone (full counts of counties)Populationcounties under each of the eight definitions in the definitions table (the frame differs by row)Period2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024SourceDIME (Table 10). The counts in this essay describe reliable donors with zero as the neutral point, and they are not the number of counties where donors disagree with voters in general.
Figure 1
Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors cluster in the South; Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors are in every region
Counties classed by whether the 2020 two-party presidential vote and the mean CFscore of the county's reliable donors lean the same way (negative CFscore is left, positive is right)
Loading county values
Donor lean against the 2020 vote
No data (3,143 counties)
Select a class to show only those places.
Hover or tap a county for its value, or search by name. Zoom with the buttons on the map, then drag to move it.
- Alaska draws as no data. Its election returns are reported by election district, and the district codes cannot be matched to boroughs and census areas.
Look for the counties that are not gray. Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors cluster in the South, most often in Mississippi, Georgia, Texas and Alabama, and Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors are spread through every region. Gray counties have a vote and a donor pool that lean the same way, and a county with too few reliable donors is drawn as no data. The tooltip gives each county's donor lean with its interval and the number of its reliable donors, and says whether the county clears both of the cut points that the next sections describe. Values in Table 1.
Donors from 1980 to 2024, a vote from 2020
The donor records are the Stanford DIME files [1], which give each individual donor one CFscore, estimated from the recipients the donor gave to, and one most recent county. The chapter keeps the 4.7 million4.7 million donorsEstimandcount of donorsn4,717,221Weightsnone (full counts of counties)Populationreliable individual donors with a CFscore and a countyPeriod1980-2024SourceDIME donors who meet the reliable rule, and a county enters the analysis when it has at least 2525 reliable donorsEstimanddefinition of the frame (minimum pool)Weightsnone (full counts of counties)Populationcounties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii)Period2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024SourceDIME of them and a 2020 presidential return. The vote is the Democratic share of the county's two-party presidential vote in 2020, from county returns. Counts and shares of counties are full counts and carry no interval. The qualification that changes the reading is the pool itself. A county's donors span giving from 1980 to 2024 while its vote is one election, and a donor who moved is counted where the last gift came from. A county with few donors has a noisy mean. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.
Many exceptions sit close to a cut point
Across counties, donor lean falls as the Democratic share of the vote rises. The correlationCorrelationA number from minus 1 to plus 1 for how closely two measures move together in a straight-line pattern. Zero means no straight-line pattern; a correlation does not say that one measure causes the other. is −0.85−0.85 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation of county Democratic share and county donor leanInterval95% CI −0.87 to −0.83n2,839Weightstwo-party votes in 2020 (county-equal in the companion fact)Populationcounties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii)Period2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024SourceDIMENoteCounty bootstrap, 2000 replicates, seed 12345. when counties are weighted by their 2020 votes and −0.67−0.67 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation of county Democratic share and county donor leanInterval95% CI −0.70 to −0.65n2,839Weightsnone (each county counted once)Populationcounties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii)Period2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024SourceDIMENoteCounty bootstrap, 2000 replicates, seed 12345. when each county counts once. The divergent counties are the dots in the two quadrants of Figure 2 where the measures disagree. Many of them lie close to a cut point, with a Democratic share just past an even split or a donor lean just past zero. A small shift in either line moves those counties into or out of the divergent group, which is one reason the count moves with the definition. The map's tooltip flags the counties that clear both cut points, a Democratic share of 55%55% percent Democratic, two-party voteEstimanddefinition of a map classWeightsnone (full counts of counties)Populationupper cut of the mapPeriod2020SourceCounty election returns or more with a donor lean of 0.250.25 CFscore unitsEstimanddefinition of a map classWeightsnone (full counts of counties)Populationcut of the map on either side of zeroPeriod2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024SourceDIME or more, or the mirror image on the Republican side. They number 112112 countiesEstimandcount of counties in the two corner classes of the mapn2,839Weightsnone (full counts of counties)Populationcounties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii)Period2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024SourceDIME.
Zero is where the CFscore scale changes sign, and it is not the middle of the data. Reliable donors average −0.274−0.274 CFscore units (negative is left)Estimandmean CFscore, each donor counted onceInterval95% CI −0.275 to −0.273n4,717,221Weightsnone (full counts of counties)Populationreliable donors in the donor filePeriod1980-2024SourceDIMENoteDonors are administrative records, so the interval treats them as independent draws. on the scale, so the pool as a whole leans left, while the average county has a donor lean right of zero, because the counties with the most donors lean left. A straight line fitted through the county dots crosses zero at a Democratic share below an even split. A county at an even split of the vote is therefore expected to have donors a little left of zero. With zero as the neutral point the Republican-voting group is the larger of the two. With the mean of all reliable donors as the neutral point the order reverses, and a county called left-leaning here can sit to the right of the average donor.
Figure 2
Donor lean falls as the Democratic share of the vote rises, and the divergent counties lie in the two quadrants where the two measures disagree
Mean CFscore of reliable donors against the Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote, one dot per county (n = 2,839 counties), 2020 vote
- Vote and donors lean the same way
- Democratic vote, right-leaning donors
- Republican vote, left-leaning donors
- Dot area: Two-party votes, 2020420,0001,500,0004,200,000
Show data
| County | Democratic share (%) | Donor lean (mean CFscore) | Donor lean, 95% interval, low | Donor lean, 95% interval, high | Two-party votes | Reliable donors | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autauga, AL | 27.4 | +0.680 | +0.54 | +0.82 | 27,341 | 223 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Baldwin, AL | 22.7 | +0.364 | +0.31 | +0.42 | 108,122 | 1,914 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Barbour, AL | 46.1 | +0.441 | +0.24 | +0.64 | 10,438 | 100 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bibb, AL | 20.9 | +0.700 | +0.43 | +0.97 | 9,511 | 47 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Blount, AL | 9.7 | +0.468 | +0.29 | +0.64 | 27,351 | 158 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bullock, AL | 75.0 | +0.369 | +0.04 | +0.69 | 4,592 | 40 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Butler, AL | 42.1 | +0.759 | +0.53 | +0.98 | 9,423 | 61 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Calhoun, AL | 30.2 | +0.462 | +0.37 | +0.55 | 50,317 | 522 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Chambers, AL | 42.1 | +0.485 | +0.25 | +0.72 | 15,118 | 83 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Cherokee, AL | 13.3 | +0.572 | +0.37 | +0.78 | 12,207 | 121 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Chilton, AL | 16.0 | +0.650 | +0.45 | +0.85 | 19,158 | 112 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Clarke, AL | 44.0 | +0.584 | +0.35 | +0.82 | 13,079 | 66 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Clay, AL | 18.4 | +0.740 | +0.50 | +0.98 | 6,868 | 51 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Cleburne, AL | 9.4 | +0.852 | +0.54 | +1.16 | 7,159 | 35 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Coffee, AL | 23.1 | +0.690 | +0.57 | +0.82 | 21,975 | 258 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Colbert, AL | 30.3 | +0.335 | +0.20 | +0.47 | 27,546 | 259 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Conecuh, AL | 46.3 | +0.734 | +0.41 | +1.06 | 6,408 | 32 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Coosa, AL | 33.1 | +0.357 | −0.07 | +0.78 | 5,427 | 27 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Covington, AL | 15.7 | +0.421 | +0.24 | +0.61 | 17,307 | 140 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Crenshaw, AL | 25.9 | +0.425 | +0.07 | +0.78 | 6,564 | 31 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Cullman, AL | 10.8 | +0.516 | +0.40 | +0.63 | 41,358 | 355 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Dale, AL | 26.5 | +0.590 | +0.43 | +0.75 | 19,473 | 184 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Dallas, AL | 68.9 | +0.209 | +0.03 | +0.39 | 17,754 | 138 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| DeKalb, AL | 14.7 | +0.385 | +0.25 | +0.52 | 29,048 | 243 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Elmore, AL | 25.6 | +0.557 | +0.44 | +0.68 | 40,531 | 344 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Escambia, AL | 31.2 | +0.895 | +0.75 | +1.04 | 15,787 | 120 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Etowah, AL | 24.6 | +0.381 | +0.28 | +0.48 | 47,095 | 475 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Fayette, AL | 16.0 | +0.727 | +0.46 | +0.99 | 8,695 | 47 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Franklin, AL | 16.7 | +0.546 | +0.34 | +0.75 | 12,462 | 88 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Geneva, AL | 12.8 | +0.967 | +0.76 | +1.18 | 12,443 | 68 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Greene, AL | 81.6 | +0.066 | −0.29 | +0.42 | 4,759 | 29 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Hale, AL | 59.5 | +0.792 | +0.49 | +1.09 | 7,877 | 35 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Henry, AL | 28.3 | +0.755 | +0.47 | +1.04 | 9,213 | 53 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Houston, AL | 28.4 | +0.697 | +0.61 | +0.78 | 45,535 | 592 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jackson, AL | 15.9 | +0.341 | +0.16 | +0.52 | 23,387 | 166 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jefferson, AL | 56.7 | +0.060 | +0.03 | +0.09 | 320,531 | 6,805 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Lamar, AL | 13.7 | +0.656 | +0.36 | +0.96 | 7,152 | 42 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lauderdale, AL | 27.3 | +0.219 | +0.13 | +0.31 | 43,636 | 574 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lawrence, AL | 22.4 | +0.357 | +0.10 | +0.61 | 15,884 | 78 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lee, AL | 39.8 | +0.137 | +0.07 | +0.20 | 70,081 | 1,117 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Limestone, AL | 28.3 | +0.348 | +0.24 | +0.45 | 48,312 | 490 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lowndes, AL | 73.0 | +0.581 | +0.22 | +0.94 | 6,808 | 32 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Macon, AL | 82.2 | −0.281 | −0.49 | −0.07 | 8,649 | 90 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Madison, AL | 45.9 | +0.137 | +0.10 | +0.17 | 190,066 | 4,343 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Marengo, AL | 50.7 | +0.433 | +0.17 | +0.70 | 10,831 | 64 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Marion, AL | 10.7 | +0.541 | +0.37 | +0.71 | 13,668 | 119 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Marshall, AL | 15.2 | +0.619 | +0.52 | +0.72 | 39,134 | 433 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Mobile, AL | 44.0 | +0.429 | +0.39 | +0.47 | 180,717 | 2,624 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Monroe, AL | 42.0 | +0.713 | +0.47 | +0.96 | 10,602 | 51 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Montgomery, AL | 66.0 | +0.312 | +0.27 | +0.35 | 97,840 | 2,364 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Morgan, AL | 25.0 | +0.442 | +0.36 | +0.53 | 52,898 | 653 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pickens, AL | 41.8 | +0.589 | +0.34 | +0.84 | 9,616 | 54 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pike, AL | 41.2 | +0.653 | +0.50 | +0.81 | 13,678 | 145 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Randolph, AL | 20.5 | +0.591 | +0.32 | +0.87 | 10,762 | 58 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Russell, AL | 53.2 | −0.042 | −0.23 | +0.14 | 21,092 | 143 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| St. Clair, AL | 17.6 | +0.481 | +0.35 | +0.61 | 43,910 | 309 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Shelby, AL | 29.4 | +0.373 | +0.32 | +0.43 | 112,968 | 1,769 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sumter, AL | 74.4 | +0.470 | +0.19 | +0.75 | 6,246 | 56 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Talladega, AL | 37.1 | +0.472 | +0.35 | +0.60 | 35,373 | 277 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Tallapoosa, AL | 28.1 | +0.527 | +0.37 | +0.68 | 20,822 | 179 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Tuscaloosa, AL | 42.5 | +0.137 | +0.08 | +0.20 | 88,882 | 1,319 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Walker, AL | 15.7 | +0.659 | +0.55 | +0.77 | 30,836 | 265 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Washington, AL | 25.6 | +0.546 | +0.19 | +0.90 | 8,822 | 36 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Wilcox, AL | 68.8 | +0.643 | +0.34 | +0.95 | 5,881 | 36 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Winston, AL | 8.7 | +0.666 | +0.44 | +0.89 | 11,169 | 79 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Apache, AZ | 67.1 | +0.003 | −0.15 | +0.16 | 34,735 | 245 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Cochise, AZ | 40.0 | −0.097 | −0.15 | −0.04 | 59,289 | 1,742 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Coconino, AZ | 62.3 | −0.528 | −0.56 | −0.49 | 71,750 | 2,490 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Gila, AZ | 32.7 | +0.207 | +0.11 | +0.30 | 27,320 | 610 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Graham, AZ | 27.3 | +0.370 | +0.19 | +0.55 | 14,783 | 166 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Greenlee, AZ | 32.7 | +0.005 | −0.34 | +0.35 | 3,615 | 47 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| La Paz, AZ | 30.4 | +0.640 | +0.43 | +0.85 | 7,365 | 120 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Maricopa, AZ | 51.1 | −0.112 | −0.12 | −0.10 | 2,036,439 | 60,280 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Mohave, AZ | 24.0 | +0.447 | +0.39 | +0.50 | 103,366 | 1,858 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Navajo, AZ | 45.8 | +0.232 | +0.14 | +0.32 | 51,040 | 729 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pima, AZ | 59.5 | −0.427 | −0.44 | −0.41 | 512,739 | 23,180 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pinal, AZ | 41.2 | −0.069 | −0.11 | −0.03 | 182,183 | 3,495 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Santa Cruz, AZ | 68.0 | −0.435 | −0.52 | −0.35 | 19,332 | 550 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Yavapai, AZ | 35.1 | −0.070 | −0.10 | −0.04 | 141,129 | 5,698 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Yuma, AZ | 46.9 | +0.357 | +0.29 | +0.43 | 68,744 | 1,150 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Arkansas, AR | 29.7 | +0.309 | +0.18 | +0.44 | 6,122 | 129 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Ashley, AR | 27.7 | +0.631 | +0.44 | +0.83 | 7,673 | 78 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Baxter, AR | 22.6 | +0.355 | +0.24 | +0.47 | 20,471 | 365 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Benton, AR | 36.4 | +0.144 | +0.10 | +0.19 | 116,214 | 2,249 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Boone, AR | 18.3 | +0.382 | +0.25 | +0.52 | 16,716 | 226 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bradley, AR | 34.2 | +0.305 | +0.09 | +0.52 | 3,549 | 53 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Carroll, AR | 35.1 | −0.496 | −0.60 | −0.39 | 11,447 | 327 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Chicot, AR | 56.3 | +0.532 | +0.31 | +0.75 | 4,012 | 55 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Clark, AR | 42.7 | −0.062 | −0.19 | +0.06 | 8,054 | 194 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Clay, AR | 19.1 | +0.206 | −0.03 | +0.44 | 5,048 | 55 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Cleburne, AR | 16.1 | +0.530 | +0.39 | +0.67 | 12,316 | 206 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Cleveland, AR | 18.5 | +0.745 | +0.49 | +1.00 | 3,518 | 34 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Columbia, AR | 33.8 | +0.553 | +0.42 | +0.69 | 8,314 | 163 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Conway, AR | 31.5 | +0.284 | +0.10 | +0.47 | 8,309 | 123 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Craighead, AR | 31.8 | +0.254 | +0.18 | +0.33 | 37,479 | 729 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Crawford, AR | 21.0 | +0.366 | +0.22 | +0.51 | 23,566 | 222 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Crittenden, AR | 53.7 | +0.298 | +0.15 | +0.44 | 15,847 | 204 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Cross, AR | 26.4 | +0.092 | −0.06 | +0.24 | 6,718 | 125 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Desha, AR | 51.2 | +0.270 | +0.08 | +0.46 | 3,937 | 61 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Drew, AR | 35.8 | +0.426 | +0.23 | +0.63 | 6,775 | 95 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Faulkner, AR | 34.8 | +0.105 | +0.04 | +0.17 | 52,768 | 860 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Franklin, AR | 18.6 | +0.355 | +0.11 | +0.60 | 6,977 | 70 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Fulton, AR | 20.7 | +0.331 | 0.00 | +0.66 | 4,996 | 49 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Garland, AR | 32.6 | +0.085 | +0.02 | +0.15 | 43,114 | 1,070 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Grant, AR | 15.7 | +0.292 | +0.05 | +0.53 | 8,062 | 81 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Greene, AR | 19.4 | +0.290 | +0.16 | +0.42 | 15,728 | 201 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hempstead, AR | 32.4 | +0.477 | +0.27 | +0.69 | 6,608 | 72 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hot Spring, AR | 25.1 | +0.262 | +0.06 | +0.47 | 12,284 | 116 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Howard, AR | 28.5 | +0.155 | −0.10 | +0.41 | 4,707 | 55 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Independence, AR | 20.0 | +0.221 | +0.10 | +0.34 | 14,056 | 252 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Izard, AR | 18.1 | +0.189 | −0.08 | +0.46 | 5,652 | 58 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jackson, AR | 27.5 | +0.181 | +0.02 | +0.35 | 4,958 | 93 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jefferson, AR | 61.1 | +0.163 | +0.07 | +0.25 | 24,502 | 388 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Johnson, AR | 24.8 | +0.077 | −0.15 | +0.30 | 9,221 | 93 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lafayette, AR | 32.3 | +0.576 | +0.24 | +0.91 | 2,596 | 26 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lawrence, AR | 19.1 | +0.620 | +0.37 | +0.87 | 5,649 | 50 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lee, AR | 52.5 | +0.409 | +0.20 | +0.62 | 2,709 | 41 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Little River, AR | 24.8 | +0.536 | +0.15 | +0.92 | 4,941 | 31 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Logan, AR | 19.3 | +0.330 | +0.10 | +0.56 | 7,985 | 78 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lonoke, AR | 22.6 | +0.404 | +0.30 | +0.51 | 29,570 | 366 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Madison, AR | 21.6 | +0.046 | −0.22 | +0.32 | 7,221 | 66 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Marion, AR | 20.9 | +0.175 | −0.04 | +0.39 | 7,314 | 115 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Miller, AR | 26.3 | +0.414 | +0.26 | +0.56 | 16,165 | 174 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Mississippi, AR | 38.5 | +0.358 | +0.23 | +0.49 | 11,854 | 168 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Monroe, AR | 42.6 | +0.596 | +0.31 | +0.88 | 2,692 | 35 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Montgomery, AR | 19.4 | −0.025 | −0.46 | +0.41 | 3,777 | 27 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Nevada, AR | 33.5 | −0.148 | −0.43 | +0.13 | 3,209 | 32 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Newton, AR | 18.2 | −0.475 | −0.76 | −0.19 | 3,901 | 47 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Ouachita, AR | 43.0 | +0.482 | +0.31 | +0.66 | 9,289 | 131 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Perry, AR | 22.5 | +0.252 | −0.09 | +0.60 | 4,491 | 38 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Phillips, AR | 60.0 | −0.002 | −0.17 | +0.16 | 6,040 | 101 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pike, AR | 15.5 | +0.292 | −0.08 | +0.67 | 4,163 | 32 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Poinsett, AR | 19.4 | +0.341 | +0.14 | +0.54 | 7,342 | 80 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Polk, AR | 15.0 | +0.324 | +0.10 | +0.55 | 8,281 | 99 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pope, AR | 24.2 | +0.320 | +0.21 | +0.43 | 23,853 | 387 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Prairie, AR | 19.0 | +0.301 | 0.00 | +0.61 | 3,440 | 38 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pulaski, AR | 61.5 | −0.163 | −0.19 | −0.14 | 165,634 | 6,188 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Randolph, AR | 18.5 | +0.174 | −0.07 | +0.42 | 6,570 | 66 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| St. Francis, AR | 52.6 | +0.051 | −0.12 | +0.23 | 6,846 | 101 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Saline, AR | 28.9 | +0.318 | +0.23 | +0.41 | 55,616 | 707 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Searcy, AR | 14.9 | +0.434 | +0.06 | +0.81 | 3,953 | 34 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sebastian, AR | 31.7 | +0.359 | +0.29 | +0.43 | 45,685 | 795 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sevier, AR | 22.3 | +0.219 | −0.07 | +0.51 | 5,000 | 51 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sharp, AR | 19.1 | +0.318 | +0.08 | +0.56 | 7,336 | 82 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Stone, AR | 20.4 | −0.072 | −0.31 | +0.16 | 5,796 | 86 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Union, AR | 34.8 | +0.616 | +0.53 | +0.71 | 16,062 | 328 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Van Buren, AR | 20.9 | +0.008 | −0.22 | +0.24 | 7,627 | 96 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Washington, AR | 48.0 | −0.346 | −0.39 | −0.31 | 91,328 | 2,238 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| White, AR | 19.8 | +0.410 | +0.31 | +0.51 | 30,160 | 392 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Woodruff, AR | 35.7 | +0.129 | −0.14 | +0.40 | 2,399 | 36 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Yell, AR | 19.7 | +0.370 | +0.12 | +0.61 | 6,510 | 67 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Alameda, CA | 81.9 | −0.840 | −0.85 | −0.83 | 753,968 | 39,788 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Alpine, CA | 66.1 | −0.565 | −0.86 | −0.27 | 720 | 37 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Amador, CA | 37.5 | −0.183 | −0.27 | −0.09 | 21,738 | 601 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Butte, CA | 50.9 | −0.425 | −0.46 | −0.39 | 99,156 | 3,195 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Calaveras, CA | 37.8 | −0.346 | −0.42 | −0.27 | 26,564 | 752 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Colusa, CA | 41.5 | +0.603 | +0.46 | +0.75 | 7,788 | 191 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Contra Costa, CA | 73.1 | −0.706 | −0.71 | −0.70 | 569,263 | 32,404 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Del Norte, CA | 42.0 | −0.404 | −0.52 | −0.28 | 11,138 | 296 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| El Dorado, CA | 45.5 | −0.318 | −0.35 | −0.28 | 113,459 | 3,482 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Fresno, CA | 54.0 | −0.054 | −0.08 | −0.03 | 357,489 | 6,335 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Glenn, CA | 36.1 | +0.410 | +0.26 | +0.56 | 11,058 | 222 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Humboldt, CA | 67.3 | −0.733 | −0.76 | −0.70 | 66,538 | 2,877 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Imperial, CA | 62.5 | +0.191 | +0.10 | +0.28 | 55,525 | 619 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Inyo, CA | 50.1 | −0.354 | −0.46 | −0.24 | 9,254 | 367 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Kern, CA | 44.8 | +0.166 | +0.13 | +0.20 | 297,850 | 4,703 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Kings, CA | 43.7 | +0.363 | +0.27 | +0.46 | 42,771 | 557 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lake, CA | 53.2 | −0.516 | −0.58 | −0.45 | 28,064 | 886 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lassen, CA | 23.8 | +0.236 | +0.06 | +0.41 | 11,769 | 190 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Los Angeles, CA | 72.6 | −0.592 | −0.60 | −0.59 | 4,174,415 | 163,108 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Madera, CA | 44.1 | +0.063 | −0.01 | +0.13 | 52,546 | 1,085 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Marin, CA | 83.9 | −0.808 | −0.82 | −0.80 | 152,900 | 17,069 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Mariposa, CA | 40.7 | −0.366 | −0.48 | −0.25 | 10,038 | 342 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Mendocino, CA | 68.4 | −0.787 | −0.82 | −0.76 | 42,049 | 2,280 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Merced, CA | 55.4 | +0.056 | 0.00 | +0.12 | 88,388 | 1,336 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Modoc, CA | 27.0 | −0.146 | −0.39 | +0.10 | 4,259 | 87 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Mono, CA | 61.5 | −0.672 | −0.78 | −0.57 | 6,526 | 246 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Monterey, CA | 71.1 | −0.507 | −0.53 | −0.48 | 160,252 | 6,087 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Napa, CA | 70.7 | −0.604 | −0.63 | −0.58 | 70,493 | 3,603 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Nevada, CA | 57.6 | −0.640 | −0.67 | −0.61 | 63,138 | 3,193 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Orange, CA | 54.6 | −0.158 | −0.17 | −0.15 | 1,490,507 | 45,983 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Placer, CA | 46.6 | −0.292 | −0.32 | −0.27 | 229,357 | 6,860 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Plumas, CA | 41.4 | −0.339 | −0.45 | −0.23 | 11,006 | 365 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Riverside, CA | 54.1 | −0.289 | −0.30 | −0.27 | 976,647 | 21,059 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sacramento, CA | 63.0 | −0.518 | −0.53 | −0.51 | 700,213 | 21,776 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| San Benito, CA | 62.5 | −0.327 | −0.42 | −0.24 | 28,218 | 570 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| San Bernardino, CA | 55.4 | −0.093 | −0.11 | −0.07 | 822,116 | 12,800 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| San Diego, CA | 61.6 | −0.356 | −0.36 | −0.35 | 1,564,744 | 54,884 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| San Francisco, CA | 87.0 | −0.866 | −0.87 | −0.86 | 434,573 | 45,868 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| San Joaquin, CA | 57.1 | −0.110 | −0.14 | −0.08 | 282,235 | 4,837 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| San Luis Obispo, CA | 56.7 | −0.497 | −0.52 | −0.47 | 155,746 | 7,100 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| San Mateo, CA | 79.4 | −0.680 | −0.69 | −0.67 | 366,973 | 24,189 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Santa Barbara, CA | 66.4 | −0.523 | −0.54 | −0.50 | 195,699 | 9,410 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Santa Clara, CA | 74.2 | −0.659 | −0.67 | −0.65 | 832,579 | 39,175 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Santa Cruz, CA | 80.9 | −0.829 | −0.84 | −0.82 | 141,183 | 9,842 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Shasta, CA | 33.0 | −0.025 | −0.08 | +0.03 | 90,789 | 2,004 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Sierra, CA | 39.0 | −0.589 | −0.83 | −0.35 | 1,872 | 59 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Siskiyou, CA | 41.9 | −0.376 | −0.45 | −0.30 | 22,883 | 748 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Solano, CA | 65.5 | −0.543 | −0.57 | −0.52 | 200,945 | 5,487 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sonoma, CA | 76.4 | −0.802 | −0.81 | −0.79 | 261,763 | 16,125 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Stanislaus, CA | 50.4 | −0.094 | −0.13 | −0.06 | 209,986 | 3,633 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sutter, CA | 41.6 | +0.353 | +0.28 | +0.43 | 41,742 | 761 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Tehama, CA | 31.8 | +0.127 | +0.02 | +0.23 | 28,052 | 471 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Trinity, CA | 47.2 | −0.558 | −0.70 | −0.41 | 6,039 | 161 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Tulare, CA | 46.0 | +0.283 | +0.24 | +0.33 | 143,684 | 2,372 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Tuolumne, CA | 40.4 | −0.327 | −0.40 | −0.25 | 29,667 | 904 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Ventura, CA | 60.8 | −0.369 | −0.39 | −0.35 | 413,595 | 13,838 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Yolo, CA | 71.2 | −0.707 | −0.73 | −0.69 | 94,890 | 5,165 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Yuba, CA | 38.9 | −0.024 | −0.13 | +0.08 | 28,906 | 444 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Adams, CO | 58.4 | −0.280 | −0.31 | −0.25 | 229,859 | 4,579 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Alamosa, CO | 49.6 | −0.256 | −0.39 | −0.12 | 7,572 | 218 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Arapahoe, CO | 62.7 | −0.143 | −0.16 | −0.12 | 340,930 | 12,669 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Archuleta, CO | 41.9 | −0.133 | −0.25 | −0.02 | 8,927 | 390 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Baca, CO | 14.5 | +0.857 | +0.56 | +1.15 | 2,184 | 35 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bent, CO | 32.8 | +0.177 | −0.16 | +0.51 | 2,235 | 44 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Boulder, CO | 78.9 | −0.722 | −0.73 | −0.71 | 201,590 | 16,281 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Broomfield, CO | 64.1 | −0.389 | −0.44 | −0.33 | 45,372 | 1,328 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Chaffee, CO | 53.5 | −0.429 | −0.51 | −0.35 | 13,382 | 588 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Clear Creek, CO | 56.7 | −0.287 | −0.41 | −0.16 | 6,358 | 280 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Conejos, CO | 46.1 | −0.252 | −0.47 | −0.03 | 4,245 | 73 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Costilla, CO | 63.9 | −0.388 | −0.65 | −0.13 | 2,052 | 54 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Crowley, CO | 25.6 | +0.546 | +0.16 | +0.93 | 1,708 | 34 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Custer, CO | 31.0 | −0.008 | −0.20 | +0.18 | 3,586 | 150 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Delta, CO | 31.0 | −0.167 | −0.26 | −0.08 | 18,968 | 623 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Denver, CO | 81.4 | −0.617 | −0.63 | −0.61 | 384,911 | 23,946 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Dolores, CO | 23.8 | −0.301 | −0.66 | +0.06 | 1,430 | 34 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Douglas, CO | 46.3 | +0.009 | −0.02 | +0.04 | 225,923 | 6,476 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Eagle, CO | 65.3 | −0.381 | −0.43 | −0.33 | 28,480 | 1,278 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Elbert, CO | 24.2 | +0.468 | +0.35 | +0.59 | 18,517 | 384 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| El Paso, CO | 44.4 | +0.075 | +0.05 | +0.10 | 364,769 | 9,653 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Fremont, CO | 29.6 | +0.012 | −0.09 | +0.11 | 24,886 | 547 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Garfield, CO | 51.2 | −0.297 | −0.35 | −0.24 | 30,144 | 1,288 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Gilpin, CO | 54.8 | −0.415 | −0.57 | −0.26 | 4,056 | 162 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Grand, CO | 49.1 | −0.170 | −0.29 | −0.05 | 9,593 | 321 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Gunnison, CO | 65.6 | −0.516 | −0.60 | −0.43 | 10,867 | 450 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hinsdale, CO | 41.9 | −0.526 | −0.87 | −0.18 | 608 | 28 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Huerfano, CO | 48.5 | −0.318 | −0.49 | −0.15 | 4,279 | 152 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Jefferson, CO | 59.5 | −0.256 | −0.27 | −0.24 | 366,813 | 15,446 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Kit Carson, CO | 17.4 | +0.885 | +0.69 | +1.08 | 3,806 | 93 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lake, CO | 60.6 | −0.395 | −0.60 | −0.19 | 3,800 | 96 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| La Plata, CO | 59.1 | −0.451 | −0.49 | −0.41 | 34,781 | 1,929 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Larimer, CO | 58.0 | −0.393 | −0.41 | −0.37 | 217,609 | 8,555 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Las Animas, CO | 44.9 | −0.059 | −0.23 | +0.11 | 7,781 | 178 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Lincoln, CO | 18.0 | +0.797 | +0.53 | +1.06 | 2,605 | 59 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Logan, CO | 21.5 | +0.716 | +0.58 | +0.86 | 10,305 | 214 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Mesa, CO | 35.7 | +0.103 | +0.06 | +0.14 | 88,430 | 2,839 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Mineral, CO | 42.6 | −0.297 | −0.70 | +0.11 | 744 | 29 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Moffat, CO | 17.5 | +0.549 | +0.35 | +0.74 | 6,873 | 123 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Montezuma, CO | 38.5 | −0.171 | −0.27 | −0.07 | 15,142 | 512 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Montrose, CO | 31.4 | +0.061 | −0.02 | +0.14 | 24,457 | 733 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Morgan, CO | 28.8 | +0.367 | +0.20 | +0.53 | 13,469 | 198 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Otero, CO | 38.5 | +0.364 | +0.17 | +0.56 | 9,361 | 136 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Ouray, CO | 60.0 | −0.439 | −0.56 | −0.32 | 3,942 | 279 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Park, CO | 41.2 | −0.178 | −0.31 | −0.04 | 11,894 | 281 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Phillips, CO | 19.9 | +0.995 | +0.77 | +1.22 | 2,444 | 57 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pitkin, CO | 76.4 | −0.479 | −0.53 | −0.43 | 11,769 | 1,134 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Prowers, CO | 26.7 | +0.456 | +0.23 | +0.68 | 5,466 | 98 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pueblo, CO | 50.9 | −0.090 | −0.13 | −0.04 | 86,024 | 2,174 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Rio Blanco, CO | 15.5 | +0.518 | +0.23 | +0.80 | 3,622 | 63 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Rio Grande, CO | 40.5 | +0.218 | +0.03 | +0.41 | 6,155 | 140 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Routt, CO | 64.1 | −0.390 | −0.46 | −0.32 | 16,507 | 824 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Saguache, CO | 57.1 | −0.539 | −0.68 | −0.39 | 3,297 | 161 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| San Miguel, CO | 77.5 | −0.701 | −0.77 | −0.63 | 5,060 | 380 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sedgwick, CO | 21.2 | +0.615 | +0.19 | +1.04 | 1,422 | 26 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Summit, CO | 70.4 | −0.455 | −0.52 | −0.39 | 17,953 | 818 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Teller, CO | 32.0 | +0.032 | −0.08 | +0.14 | 16,519 | 454 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Washington, CO | 12.4 | +1.023 | +0.79 | +1.26 | 2,964 | 52 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Weld, CO | 40.7 | +0.127 | +0.09 | +0.17 | 162,205 | 3,242 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Yuma, CO | 16.0 | +0.768 | +0.62 | +0.92 | 4,892 | 160 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Fairfield, CT | 63.8 | −0.250 | −0.26 | −0.24 | 466,544 | 30,979 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hartford, CT | 64.1 | −0.301 | −0.31 | −0.29 | 442,392 | 20,961 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Litchfield, CT | 47.4 | −0.317 | −0.34 | −0.29 | 105,765 | 5,480 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Middlesex, CT | 58.3 | −0.305 | −0.33 | −0.28 | 97,513 | 5,051 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| New Haven, CT | 58.8 | −0.365 | −0.38 | −0.35 | 412,521 | 17,560 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| New London, CT | 58.2 | −0.291 | −0.31 | −0.27 | 136,569 | 6,270 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Tolland, CT | 55.8 | −0.308 | −0.34 | −0.28 | 78,825 | 3,558 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Windham, CT | 47.8 | −0.344 | −0.38 | −0.30 | 55,842 | 2,010 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Kent, DE | 52.1 | −0.135 | −0.18 | −0.09 | 85,561 | 1,752 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| New Castle, DE | 68.8 | −0.434 | −0.45 | −0.42 | 283,398 | 10,135 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sussex, DE | 44.3 | −0.304 | −0.33 | −0.27 | 127,912 | 4,390 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| District of Columbia, DC | 94.5 | −0.721 | −0.73 | −0.72 | 335,909 | 41,702 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Alachua, FL | 63.8 | −0.423 | −0.44 | −0.40 | 140,676 | 6,112 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Baker, FL | 14.6 | +0.526 | +0.38 | +0.67 | 13,948 | 170 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bay, FL | 27.9 | +0.438 | +0.39 | +0.48 | 91,711 | 2,078 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bradford, FL | 23.4 | +0.307 | +0.13 | +0.49 | 13,494 | 142 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Brevard, FL | 41.7 | +0.070 | +0.05 | +0.09 | 356,432 | 8,999 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Broward, FL | 65.0 | −0.270 | −0.28 | −0.26 | 952,161 | 25,659 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Calhoun, FL | 18.6 | +0.478 | +0.26 | +0.70 | 6,483 | 69 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Charlotte, FL | 36.6 | +0.151 | +0.11 | +0.19 | 115,516 | 3,209 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Citrus, FL | 29.3 | +0.124 | +0.07 | +0.18 | 92,444 | 1,865 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Clay, FL | 31.2 | +0.221 | +0.17 | +0.27 | 122,797 | 2,128 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Collier, FL | 37.6 | +0.267 | +0.24 | +0.29 | 206,571 | 8,751 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Columbia, FL | 27.2 | +0.343 | +0.25 | +0.43 | 32,750 | 513 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| DeSoto, FL | 33.9 | +0.402 | +0.25 | +0.56 | 12,572 | 185 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Dixie, FL | 16.8 | +0.442 | +0.24 | +0.65 | 8,124 | 93 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Duval, FL | 51.9 | +0.069 | +0.05 | +0.09 | 486,318 | 10,369 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Escambia, FL | 42.3 | +0.203 | +0.17 | +0.24 | 167,603 | 3,450 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Flagler, FL | 39.5 | −0.017 | −0.07 | +0.04 | 71,204 | 1,769 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Franklin, FL | 31.2 | −0.284 | −0.42 | −0.14 | 6,795 | 183 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Gadsden, FL | 68.4 | −0.013 | −0.11 | +0.08 | 23,618 | 483 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Gilchrist, FL | 17.7 | +0.239 | +0.05 | +0.43 | 9,595 | 119 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Glades, FL | 26.8 | +0.373 | +0.19 | +0.56 | 5,167 | 101 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Gulf, FL | 24.5 | +0.463 | +0.29 | +0.64 | 8,098 | 135 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hamilton, FL | 34.0 | +0.446 | +0.20 | +0.70 | 5,778 | 66 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hardee, FL | 27.3 | +0.714 | +0.59 | +0.84 | 8,420 | 164 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hendry, FL | 38.4 | +0.509 | +0.41 | +0.60 | 12,835 | 306 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hernando, FL | 34.8 | +0.124 | +0.07 | +0.18 | 107,931 | 1,858 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Highlands, FL | 32.7 | +0.321 | +0.25 | +0.39 | 51,811 | 967 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hillsborough, FL | 53.5 | −0.074 | −0.09 | −0.06 | 703,765 | 18,101 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Holmes, FL | 10.3 | +0.746 | +0.50 | +0.99 | 9,004 | 58 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Indian River, FL | 39.1 | +0.246 | +0.21 | +0.28 | 96,716 | 3,511 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jackson, FL | 30.4 | +0.352 | +0.24 | +0.46 | 22,254 | 322 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jefferson, FL | 46.5 | +0.070 | −0.06 | +0.20 | 8,376 | 227 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lafayette, FL | 14.0 | +0.374 | +0.14 | +0.61 | 3,638 | 56 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lake, FL | 39.9 | +0.099 | +0.06 | +0.13 | 209,364 | 4,216 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lee, FL | 40.3 | +0.109 | +0.09 | +0.13 | 390,942 | 10,970 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Leon, FL | 64.3 | −0.193 | −0.21 | −0.18 | 160,970 | 8,772 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Levy, FL | 27.0 | +0.152 | +0.04 | +0.26 | 22,954 | 370 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Liberty, FL | 19.6 | +0.541 | +0.27 | +0.81 | 3,540 | 37 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Madison, FL | 40.2 | +0.170 | −0.01 | +0.35 | 9,323 | 114 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Manatee, FL | 41.9 | −0.049 | −0.08 | −0.02 | 215,153 | 6,414 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Marion, FL | 36.9 | +0.143 | +0.11 | +0.18 | 202,684 | 4,176 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Martin, FL | 37.6 | +0.185 | +0.15 | +0.22 | 98,061 | 3,874 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Miami-Dade, FL | 53.7 | −0.211 | −0.22 | −0.20 | 1,150,697 | 32,297 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Monroe, FL | 46.0 | −0.146 | −0.19 | −0.10 | 47,574 | 2,331 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Nassau, FL | 26.8 | +0.165 | +0.11 | +0.22 | 58,130 | 1,562 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Okaloosa, FL | 30.0 | +0.471 | +0.43 | +0.52 | 114,046 | 2,325 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Okeechobee, FL | 27.7 | +0.428 | +0.29 | +0.56 | 15,860 | 213 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Orange, FL | 61.7 | −0.112 | −0.13 | −0.10 | 640,412 | 15,210 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Osceola, FL | 57.0 | −0.081 | −0.13 | −0.03 | 170,777 | 1,721 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Palm Beach, FL | 56.4 | −0.138 | −0.15 | −0.13 | 768,283 | 30,149 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pasco, FL | 39.9 | +0.041 | +0.01 | +0.07 | 298,694 | 4,933 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pinellas, FL | 50.1 | −0.165 | −0.18 | −0.15 | 553,659 | 17,100 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Polk, FL | 42.7 | +0.222 | +0.19 | +0.25 | 339,635 | 5,874 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Putnam, FL | 29.2 | +0.128 | +0.04 | +0.21 | 36,041 | 655 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| St. Johns, FL | 36.5 | +0.118 | +0.09 | +0.15 | 174,796 | 4,993 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| St. Lucie, FL | 49.2 | −0.028 | −0.07 | +0.01 | 170,968 | 3,325 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Santa Rosa, FL | 26.3 | +0.347 | +0.29 | +0.40 | 104,997 | 1,659 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sarasota, FL | 44.7 | −0.192 | −0.21 | −0.17 | 268,480 | 12,109 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Seminole, FL | 51.4 | −0.005 | −0.03 | +0.02 | 257,769 | 5,947 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sumter, FL | 31.9 | +0.149 | +0.10 | +0.19 | 92,102 | 2,913 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Suwannee, FL | 21.5 | +0.319 | +0.20 | +0.44 | 20,895 | 308 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Taylor, FL | 22.9 | +0.363 | +0.20 | +0.53 | 10,050 | 151 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Union, FL | 17.0 | +0.485 | +0.23 | +0.74 | 6,186 | 51 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Volusia, FL | 42.9 | +0.030 | +0.01 | +0.05 | 304,396 | 7,428 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Wakulla, FL | 29.4 | −0.147 | −0.27 | −0.03 | 18,225 | 269 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Walton, FL | 23.9 | +0.292 | +0.22 | +0.36 | 43,285 | 993 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Washington, FL | 19.2 | +0.529 | +0.39 | +0.67 | 12,223 | 173 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Appling, GA | 21.4 | +1.015 | +0.81 | +1.22 | 8,354 | 60 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Atkinson, GA | 26.4 | +0.801 | +0.42 | +1.18 | 3,125 | 26 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bacon, GA | 13.5 | +0.679 | +0.40 | +0.96 | 4,642 | 44 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Baldwin, GA | 50.7 | +0.295 | +0.17 | +0.42 | 18,043 | 304 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Banks, GA | 10.7 | +0.418 | +0.04 | +0.80 | 8,727 | 47 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Barrow, GA | 28.1 | +0.447 | +0.31 | +0.58 | 37,257 | 316 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bartow, GA | 24.3 | +0.503 | +0.40 | +0.60 | 49,763 | 515 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Ben Hill, GA | 36.8 | +0.468 | +0.21 | +0.72 | 6,504 | 69 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Berrien, GA | 16.5 | +0.901 | +0.68 | +1.12 | 7,688 | 66 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bibb, GA | 62.0 | +0.229 | +0.18 | +0.28 | 69,967 | 1,508 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Bleckley, GA | 23.3 | +0.430 | +0.09 | +0.77 | 5,641 | 42 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Brantley, GA | 9.1 | +0.250 | −0.10 | +0.60 | 7,693 | 39 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Brooks, GA | 39.6 | +0.718 | +0.48 | +0.96 | 7,052 | 75 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bryan, GA | 32.1 | +0.295 | +0.15 | +0.44 | 20,978 | 268 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bulloch, GA | 38.0 | +0.347 | +0.25 | +0.44 | 29,635 | 482 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Burke, GA | 49.1 | +0.818 | +0.58 | +1.05 | 10,608 | 69 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Butts, GA | 28.0 | +0.868 | +0.68 | +1.06 | 11,680 | 104 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Camden, GA | 34.3 | +0.303 | +0.18 | +0.43 | 23,216 | 330 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Candler, GA | 28.8 | +0.353 | +0.12 | +0.59 | 4,402 | 91 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Carroll, GA | 30.2 | +0.397 | +0.31 | +0.48 | 53,712 | 696 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Catoosa, GA | 21.6 | +0.313 | +0.17 | +0.46 | 32,099 | 264 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Charlton, GA | 24.4 | +0.423 | +0.14 | +0.71 | 4,524 | 55 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Chatham, GA | 59.5 | −0.017 | −0.05 | +0.02 | 131,479 | 3,489 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Chattooga, GA | 18.7 | +0.322 | +0.03 | +0.61 | 9,918 | 59 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Cherokee, GA | 30.0 | +0.207 | +0.16 | +0.26 | 142,364 | 2,404 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Clarke, GA | 71.4 | −0.431 | −0.47 | −0.39 | 50,505 | 2,075 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Clayton, GA | 85.8 | −0.408 | −0.47 | −0.35 | 111,277 | 1,006 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Clinch, GA | 26.1 | +0.783 | +0.53 | +1.04 | 2,849 | 44 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Cobb, GA | 57.3 | −0.002 | −0.03 | +0.02 | 387,283 | 9,997 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Coffee, GA | 29.9 | +0.705 | +0.57 | +0.84 | 15,089 | 182 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Colquitt, GA | 26.2 | +0.942 | +0.85 | +1.04 | 15,967 | 240 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Columbia, GA | 36.9 | +0.332 | +0.26 | +0.40 | 79,245 | 1,093 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Cook, GA | 29.6 | +0.836 | +0.61 | +1.06 | 6,959 | 59 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Coweta, GA | 32.0 | +0.272 | +0.19 | +0.35 | 75,711 | 1,010 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Crawford, GA | 26.7 | +0.840 | +0.56 | +1.12 | 6,043 | 42 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Crisp, GA | 37.4 | +0.759 | +0.60 | +0.92 | 7,967 | 118 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Dade, GA | 17.2 | +0.486 | +0.23 | +0.74 | 7,327 | 86 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Dawson, GA | 15.7 | +0.544 | +0.36 | +0.72 | 15,884 | 162 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Decatur, GA | 41.4 | +0.636 | +0.47 | +0.80 | 11,537 | 124 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| DeKalb, GA | 84.1 | −0.672 | −0.69 | −0.66 | 366,539 | 12,992 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Dodge, GA | 27.1 | +0.681 | +0.48 | +0.88 | 8,015 | 79 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Dooly, GA | 47.0 | +0.611 | +0.35 | +0.87 | 4,070 | 44 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Dougherty, GA | 70.2 | +0.364 | +0.28 | +0.45 | 35,009 | 504 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Douglas, GA | 62.7 | −0.042 | −0.12 | +0.04 | 68,268 | 835 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Early, GA | 47.5 | +0.634 | +0.32 | +0.95 | 5,160 | 33 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Effingham, GA | 24.8 | +0.411 | +0.25 | +0.57 | 31,079 | 220 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Elbert, GA | 31.6 | +0.369 | +0.16 | +0.58 | 9,105 | 108 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Emanuel, GA | 30.6 | +0.529 | +0.31 | +0.75 | 9,439 | 85 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Evans, GA | 31.4 | +0.712 | +0.45 | +0.98 | 4,212 | 50 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Fannin, GA | 17.4 | +0.146 | 0.00 | +0.29 | 14,739 | 288 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Fayette, GA | 46.6 | +0.001 | −0.06 | +0.06 | 71,018 | 1,629 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Floyd, GA | 29.2 | +0.419 | +0.33 | +0.50 | 40,823 | 703 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Forsyth, GA | 33.1 | +0.281 | +0.23 | +0.33 | 127,331 | 2,008 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Franklin, GA | 14.9 | +0.628 | +0.39 | +0.86 | 10,662 | 84 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Fulton, GA | 73.5 | −0.264 | −0.28 | −0.25 | 517,459 | 23,387 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Gilmer, GA | 17.9 | +0.259 | +0.11 | +0.40 | 16,361 | 278 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Glynn, GA | 38.3 | +0.220 | +0.15 | +0.29 | 41,499 | 1,112 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Gordon, GA | 18.4 | +0.631 | +0.49 | +0.77 | 23,789 | 264 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Grady, GA | 34.0 | +0.452 | +0.23 | +0.68 | 10,653 | 90 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Greene, GA | 36.6 | +0.638 | +0.49 | +0.79 | 11,153 | 195 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Gwinnett, GA | 59.3 | −0.099 | −0.13 | −0.07 | 408,394 | 6,263 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Habersham, GA | 17.6 | +0.360 | +0.23 | +0.49 | 20,199 | 296 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hall, GA | 28.1 | +0.481 | +0.42 | +0.54 | 89,216 | 1,599 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hancock, GA | 72.1 | −0.129 | −0.53 | +0.27 | 4,130 | 32 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Haralson, GA | 12.7 | +0.851 | +0.65 | +1.05 | 14,121 | 126 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Harris, GA | 27.6 | +0.407 | +0.27 | +0.55 | 19,776 | 272 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hart, GA | 25.0 | +0.642 | +0.48 | +0.80 | 12,622 | 167 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Heard, GA | 15.4 | +0.764 | +0.33 | +1.20 | 5,343 | 27 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Henry, GA | 60.3 | −0.158 | −0.22 | −0.10 | 121,702 | 1,450 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Houston, GA | 43.7 | +0.442 | +0.37 | +0.51 | 73,779 | 1,040 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Irwin, GA | 24.3 | +0.964 | +0.75 | +1.18 | 4,142 | 46 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jackson, GA | 20.6 | +0.386 | +0.28 | +0.50 | 37,144 | 460 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jasper, GA | 23.2 | +0.697 | +0.44 | +0.95 | 7,583 | 67 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jeff Davis, GA | 18.0 | +0.571 | +0.17 | +0.97 | 5,723 | 29 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jefferson, GA | 53.4 | +0.538 | +0.23 | +0.84 | 7,595 | 47 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Jenkins, GA | 36.9 | +0.967 | +0.65 | +1.28 | 3,427 | 25 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jones, GA | 32.9 | +0.316 | +0.12 | +0.51 | 14,822 | 136 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lamar, GA | 29.3 | +0.266 | +0.02 | +0.51 | 8,951 | 96 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lanier, GA | 28.9 | +0.307 | 0.00 | +0.61 | 3,528 | 37 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Laurens, GA | 35.8 | +0.670 | +0.55 | +0.79 | 22,567 | 274 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lee, GA | 27.5 | +0.552 | +0.37 | +0.74 | 16,565 | 130 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Liberty, GA | 62.2 | −0.023 | −0.16 | +0.12 | 21,063 | 230 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lincoln, GA | 31.1 | +0.570 | +0.17 | +0.97 | 4,605 | 34 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Long, GA | 36.6 | −0.332 | −0.72 | +0.05 | 5,562 | 29 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Lowndes, GA | 43.9 | +0.417 | +0.32 | +0.51 | 45,808 | 565 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lumpkin, GA | 20.4 | −0.050 | −0.19 | +0.09 | 15,289 | 266 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| McDuffie, GA | 40.3 | +0.679 | +0.47 | +0.88 | 10,337 | 100 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| McIntosh, GA | 39.4 | +0.122 | −0.12 | +0.37 | 6,628 | 90 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Macon, GA | 61.6 | +0.760 | +0.45 | +1.07 | 4,641 | 40 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Madison, GA | 23.1 | +0.092 | −0.13 | +0.31 | 14,737 | 119 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Meriwether, GA | 39.7 | +0.555 | +0.27 | +0.84 | 10,811 | 73 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Mitchell, GA | 44.7 | +0.720 | +0.55 | +0.89 | 8,928 | 99 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Monroe, GA | 28.4 | +0.417 | +0.26 | +0.58 | 15,442 | 176 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Montgomery, GA | 24.9 | +0.893 | +0.66 | +1.13 | 3,940 | 44 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Morgan, GA | 28.9 | +0.372 | +0.21 | +0.53 | 11,584 | 195 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Murray, GA | 15.1 | +0.465 | +0.21 | +0.72 | 15,245 | 82 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Muscogee, GA | 62.2 | +0.156 | +0.10 | +0.21 | 79,553 | 1,535 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Newton, GA | 55.5 | +0.081 | −0.02 | +0.18 | 53,658 | 526 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Oconee, GA | 33.0 | +0.016 | −0.07 | +0.10 | 24,757 | 686 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Oglethorpe, GA | 30.4 | −0.147 | −0.41 | +0.11 | 8,031 | 77 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Paulding, GA | 35.3 | +0.186 | +0.10 | +0.27 | 84,212 | 798 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Peach, GA | 47.7 | +0.333 | +0.16 | +0.50 | 12,428 | 186 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pickens, GA | 16.7 | +0.305 | +0.16 | +0.45 | 16,934 | 285 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pierce, GA | 12.2 | +0.836 | +0.66 | +1.02 | 8,998 | 91 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pike, GA | 14.2 | +0.601 | +0.34 | +0.86 | 10,632 | 85 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Polk, GA | 21.2 | +0.611 | +0.42 | +0.80 | 17,244 | 136 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pulaski, GA | 30.4 | +0.739 | +0.49 | +0.99 | 4,045 | 53 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Putnam, GA | 29.4 | +0.608 | +0.46 | +0.75 | 11,739 | 223 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Rabun, GA | 21.0 | +0.041 | −0.12 | +0.20 | 9,458 | 200 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Richmond, GA | 68.8 | +0.211 | +0.15 | +0.27 | 85,899 | 1,340 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Rockdale, GA | 70.6 | −0.295 | −0.40 | −0.19 | 44,251 | 477 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Screven, GA | 40.5 | +0.750 | +0.51 | +0.99 | 6,576 | 64 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Seminole, GA | 32.5 | +0.540 | +0.19 | +0.89 | 3,869 | 34 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Spalding, GA | 39.5 | +0.345 | +0.21 | +0.48 | 29,932 | 331 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Stephens, GA | 20.3 | +0.716 | +0.53 | +0.90 | 11,753 | 115 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sumter, GA | 52.4 | +0.295 | +0.14 | +0.45 | 12,047 | 183 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Talbot, GA | 60.3 | +0.082 | −0.33 | +0.49 | 3,506 | 31 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Tattnall, GA | 25.4 | +0.881 | +0.71 | +1.05 | 8,116 | 82 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Taylor, GA | 36.4 | +0.567 | +0.26 | +0.87 | 3,808 | 29 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Telfair, GA | 34.5 | +0.674 | +0.32 | +1.02 | 4,313 | 29 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Terrell, GA | 54.2 | +0.656 | +0.37 | +0.94 | 4,380 | 42 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Thomas, GA | 40.2 | +0.598 | +0.50 | +0.70 | 21,677 | 402 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Tift, GA | 33.0 | +0.834 | +0.74 | +0.92 | 16,102 | 319 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Toombs, GA | 27.2 | +0.758 | +0.63 | +0.88 | 10,811 | 186 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Towns, GA | 19.5 | +0.241 | +0.07 | +0.42 | 7,934 | 183 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Troup, GA | 39.0 | +0.537 | +0.42 | +0.66 | 29,719 | 324 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Turner, GA | 37.5 | +0.496 | +0.17 | +0.82 | 3,758 | 39 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Twiggs, GA | 46.3 | +0.551 | +0.21 | +0.90 | 4,414 | 26 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Union, GA | 18.1 | +0.120 | −0.02 | +0.26 | 15,450 | 271 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Upson, GA | 32.8 | +0.586 | +0.37 | +0.80 | 12,809 | 102 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Walker, GA | 19.9 | +0.435 | +0.29 | +0.58 | 28,943 | 265 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Walton, GA | 25.1 | +0.524 | +0.41 | +0.63 | 50,522 | 481 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Ware, GA | 29.6 | +0.631 | +0.51 | +0.75 | 14,072 | 231 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Washington, GA | 50.4 | +0.677 | +0.49 | +0.86 | 9,411 | 117 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Wayne, GA | 21.2 | +0.674 | +0.50 | +0.85 | 12,675 | 127 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| White, GA | 16.5 | +0.145 | −0.01 | +0.30 | 14,633 | 232 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Whitfield, GA | 29.4 | +0.494 | +0.40 | +0.59 | 36,324 | 474 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Wilcox, GA | 26.4 | +0.962 | +0.64 | +1.28 | 3,263 | 25 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Wilkes, GA | 43.3 | +0.409 | +0.18 | +0.64 | 4,983 | 94 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Wilkinson, GA | 43.8 | +0.297 | −0.06 | +0.65 | 4,739 | 37 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Worth, GA | 26.0 | +0.880 | +0.70 | +1.06 | 9,225 | 99 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Ada, ID | 48.0 | −0.214 | −0.24 | −0.19 | 251,238 | 7,720 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Adams, ID | 23.3 | +0.221 | −0.10 | +0.55 | 2,532 | 56 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bannock, ID | 38.6 | −0.238 | −0.32 | −0.16 | 38,013 | 720 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Bear Lake, ID | 10.7 | +0.746 | +0.39 | +1.10 | 3,264 | 36 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Benewah, ID | 20.1 | +0.209 | −0.06 | +0.47 | 4,855 | 80 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bingham, ID | 21.2 | +0.483 | +0.32 | +0.65 | 19,419 | 187 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Blaine, ID | 68.9 | −0.475 | −0.53 | −0.42 | 12,950 | 1,017 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Boise, ID | 25.7 | +0.125 | −0.10 | +0.35 | 4,689 | 110 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bonner, ID | 31.1 | −0.076 | −0.16 | +0.01 | 26,679 | 758 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Bonneville, ID | 27.4 | +0.152 | +0.08 | +0.22 | 52,059 | 955 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Boundary, ID | 19.8 | +0.304 | +0.10 | +0.51 | 6,157 | 134 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
Showing the first 500 of 2839 rows.
Dots run from the upper left to the lower right, and the divergent counties are the ones in the upper right and lower left quadrants, many of them near the quadrant rules. The dashed line is a least-squares fit through all counties, counting each county once, and it crosses zero at a Democratic share below an even split. The line with whiskers is the mean donor lean of counties grouped by Democratic share, with its intervals. Dot area is the county's two-party votes in 2020, and the labeled counties include Yazoo and Sunflower in Mississippi. Values in Table 2.
A pattern across counties with large Black populations
Figure 3 sorts the counties on each side of the vote by the Black share of their residents. Among Democratic-voting counties at least 30%30% percent of residents, non-Hispanic BlackEstimanddefinition of a groupWeightsnone (full counts of counties)Populationcounties grouped as at least 30% BlackPeriod2020SourceCounty demographics panel Black, 59%58.7% percent of countiesEstimandshare with a right-leaning donor pooln126Weightsnone (full counts of counties)PopulationDemocratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, at least 30% BlackPeriod2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024SourceDIME have right-leaning donors, against 7%6.5% percent of countiesEstimandshare with a right-leaning donor pooln372Weightsnone (full counts of counties)PopulationDemocratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, under 30% BlackPeriod2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024SourceDIME of the other Democratic-voting counties. Pools are smaller in these counties, and a small pool gives a noisy mean, but the gap between the two groups of counties remains when small pools are dropped (Table 4). It also appears within every cohort of donors grouped by the election cycle of their first gift (Table 11). The pattern is one across counties. Of the 1010 countiesEstimandsize of the group comparedWeightsnone (full counts of counties)PopulationDemocratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, at least 30% Black, the ones with the most two-party votesPeriod2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024SourceDIME Democratic-voting counties at that Black share with the most voters, all but Jefferson County in Alabama have donors left of zero. Philadelphia, Prince George's County in Maryland and Fulton County in Georgia are among them. DIME records no donor's race, income or vote, so these results say that donor leans differ between counties with different Black shares, and they cannot say who the donors in those counties are.
The Republican-voting exceptions are the less Republican counties. Their median county gave a larger share of its vote to the Democratic candidate than the median Republican-voting county with right-leaning donors did. Their share of Republican-voting counties is highest in the Northeast and lowest in the South (Table 9). Divergence on the two sides also moves with the size of the pool, in opposite directions. Among Democratic-voting counties the share with right-leaning donors falls as pools grow, and among Republican-voting counties the share with left-leaning donors rises (Table 8). Noise in small pools moves some counties across the line and leaves most divergent counties divergent.
Figure 3
Right-leaning donors are more common in Democratic-voting counties that are at least 30% Black: 58.7% of them, against 6.5% of the rest
Share of counties whose donor pool leans opposite to the vote, by non-Hispanic Black share of residents, for Democratic-voting and Republican-voting counties, 2020 vote
- Democratic-voting counties
- Republican-voting counties
Show data
| Black share of residents | Vote | Divergent counties (% of counties voting that way) | Divergent counties | Counties |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5% Black | Democratic-voting counties | 6.9 | 14 | 202 |
| 5 to 15% Black | Democratic-voting counties | 2.8 | 3 | 108 |
| 15 to 30% Black | Democratic-voting counties | 11.3 | 7 | 62 |
| 30 to 50% Black | Democratic-voting counties | 43.9 | 25 | 57 |
| 50% or more Black | Democratic-voting counties | 71.0 | 49 | 69 |
| Under 5% Black | Republican-voting counties | 23.4 | 372 | 1,593 |
| 5 to 15% Black | Republican-voting counties | 20.6 | 81 | 393 |
| 15 to 30% Black | Republican-voting counties | 5.6 | 12 | 214 |
| 30 to 50% Black | Republican-voting counties | 3.8 | 5 | 131 |
Among Democratic-voting counties, drawn in color, the share with right-leaning donors stays low in the bands below the cut used here and is higher above it. Among Republican-voting counties, in gray, the share with left-leaning donors is highest in the counties with a low Black share and falls as the share rises. Each bar is the percentage of counties on that side of the vote, in that band of Black share, whose reliable donors lean the other way. A band with too few counties on a side is left out. Values in Table 3.
What these records cannot tell you
A county's donor lean describes the donors in the county and not any resident, and a pattern across counties can differ from the pattern among people, the problem known as ecological inferenceEcological inferenceDrawing a conclusion about individuals from data on groups or places, such as counties. A pattern across counties can differ from the pattern among the people who live in them. [2]. The files do not say which candidates a donor gave to, so a donor who gives to Republican candidates cannot be told from one who gives to moderate Democrats. The divergence rule pivots on the sign of a mean at zero, which is not the middle of the county distribution, and the counts change when the reliable-donor rule is relaxed. The chapter leaves out donor dollars and tests no mechanism, so whether a county's donor lean reflects who can give or who is asked cannot be separated with county means. How the scores of the donor pool are distributed over time is the subject of Chapter 7.1, The ideology of the donor pool.
Go deeper
- The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
- Tables: every figure of the report as a table.
Reading paths that include this chapter:
Data sources
- DIMEStanford DIME public version 4.0, reliable individual donors by most recent county, 1980-2024Years: 1979-2024 (23 election cycles) · Weights: none (administrative records); counties counted once or weighted by 2020 two-party votes · License: ODC-BY 1.0, as listed on the Stanford Libraries page (read through a search result, not the license text).
- County election returnsCounty presidential returns, 2020 and 2024 (repaired 1868-2024 file)Years: President 1868-2024 (40 elections); House and Senate 1990-2024 · Weights: none (full counts); two-party votes as weights in the vote-weighted estimates · License: The Heideman file is CC BY 4.0 (doi:10.5281/zenodo.22976553), but the state records behind it keep their own terms, and the sites of Florida, Indiana, Colorado and Wisconsin restrict reuse.
- County demographics panelCounty demographics panel, 2020 row (decennial population, ACS-based shares interpolated between 2020 and 2024)Years: 2000-2024 (election years, interpolated between census and survey anchors) · Weights: none (full counts and interpolated estimates) · License: US government source data, public domain. The interpolated panel is derived work.
References
- Bonica, Adam (2014). Mapping the Ideological Marketplace. American Journal of Political Science 58(2): 367-386. doi:10.1111/ajps.12062
- Robinson, W. S. (1950). Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals. American Sociological Review 15(3): 351-357. doi:10.2307/2087176
How to cite
@misc{singh2026countieswheredonorsandvotersdiverge,
author = {Singh, Vishal},
title = {Counties where donors and voters diverge},
year = {2026},
url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge},
note = {In The Public Mind. Published 30 September 2026.}
}