Volume 1Labels, sorting and partisan feeling

Party identification and ideological labels drew closer together in American surveys. The volume asks what the labels contain, in the United States and about 100 countries, how the alignment changed across birth cohorts, and how it differs from partisans' feelings toward the other party.

Volume 2Coalitions and political differences

Participation, group coalitions, issues and attitudes toward institutions and democracy, 1948 to 2024. Party gaps on these measures differ in size and timing, and some reverse with control of the presidency, so no single trend describes them.

Volume 3Votes, giving and places

Election returns, donor records and county data count different populations at different scales. The volume follows the vote from counties to precincts and down the ballot, compares donors with voters, and returns from places to the people who live in them.

Reading path

Race and ethnicity

9 chapters in reading order. A path is a way through the book that follows one question; every chapter also stands alone.

1
Fifty years of racial attitudes
Chapter 4.6 in Part IV, Issues move on different schedules
Among white respondents to the General Social Survey, the share attributing racial inequality mainly to discrimination was 30.0% in 2014 and 41.2% in 2018, after equal-treatment answers had risen from the 1970s to the 2000s.
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2
Racial attitudes and ideology
Companion 4.6a in Part IV, Issues move on different schedules
Among white non-Hispanic respondents to the American National Election Studies, the correlation between racial resentment and conservative self-placement was +0.27 in 1986 and +0.66 in 2024.
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3
Racial attitudes after George Floyd's death
Planned in Part IV, Issues move on different schedules
How much did measured racial attitudes move in the weeks after May 25, 2020, and how long did the change last?
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4
Policing
Planned in Part IV, Issues move on different schedules
When did attitudes toward the police become a partisan divide?
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5
Hispanic, Black and Asian voters
Chapter 3.3 in Part III, Participation and coalitions
How did Hispanic, Black and Asian voters' presidential choices move between 2008 and 2024?
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6
Religious tradition and race
Chapter 3.9 in Part III, Participation and coalitions
In the 2024 CES, seldom attenders voted more Democratic than frequent attenders by +9.5 points among white born-again Protestants and by +0.8 points among Black Protestants, an interval that includes zero.
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7
Education, ethnicity and the county shift, 2016 to 2024
Chapter 8.2 in Part VIII, Places and the people in them
In 2020 to 2024, counties with more Hispanic residents moved further toward the Republicans than other counties did, a vote-weighted correlation of −0.66 with the swing, against +0.45 in 2012 to 2016.
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8
Rural counties
Planned in Part VIII, Places and the people in them
How different are white-majority rural counties from Black Belt and Hispanic rural counties?
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9
Counties where donors and voters diverge
Chapter 7.2 in Part VII, Giving
In 570 of 2,839 counties, or 20.1%, the reliable donors of 1980 to 2024 lean opposite to the county's 2020 presidential vote, a count that depends on the definition of divergence.
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All chapters