Change and partisan feeling

A closer alignment of party and label can come from people changing their views, from people changing parties, or from new cohorts replacing older ones, and it is a different development from a change in how partisans feel about the other side. Chapter 2.1, Cohort change in partisan sorting describes change in the alignment within birth-cohort averages. Repeated cross-sections cannot follow individuals, so the chapter does not claim that any person switched, and how much of the change is cohort replacement depends on assumptions the data cannot test. Chapter 2.2, Feelings toward the other party separates partisans' ratings of their own party from their ratings of the other party on the feeling thermometer, and reports how much of the trend goes with changes in survey mode. Warmth toward one's own party moved little while warmth toward the other party fell. Companion 2.2a, Negative partisanship is a companion to the feelings chapter and asks how those ratings relate to reported House voting. Whether party now organizes feelings toward social groups is a question on the research agenda.