The diploma map

Counties where more adults hold a bachelor's degree voted more Democratic for president in 2000, and the difference between more and less educated counties was larger in 2024. A straight line fitted through every county with returns, counting each county by its votes, puts the Democratic share of the two-party vote 9.29.2 points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college shareEstimandslope of the Democratic share on college shareInterval95% CI 8.4 to 10.1n3,103Weightstwo-party votes in the electionPopulationcounties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excludedPeriod2024SourceCounty demographics panelNoteInterval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. pointsPercentage pointThe unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused. higher in 2024 for each 1010 points of college shareEstimanddefinition of the slope unitWeightsnone (full counts)Populationunit of the slopePeriod2000 to 2024SourceCounty demographics panel points of college share, the share of adult residents with a bachelor's degree or more. In 2000 the same difference in college share went with a difference of 3.93.9 points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college shareEstimandslope of the Democratic share on college shareInterval95% CI 2.5 to 5.1n3,114Weightstwo-party votes in the electionPopulationcounties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excludedPeriod2000SourceCounty demographics panelNoteInterval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. points. That line, the slope, describes the average across counties and not any one pair of them. It rose from 2000 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2016, and whether it kept rising after 2016 depends on the version of the slope. The unit throughout is the county, so the slope compares places with more and fewer graduates, a different comparison from the one between graduates and other voters in Chapter 3.4, The diploma divide.

Most of the widening is in the least educated counties

Figure 1 places every county of 2024 on one chart, with college share across and the Democratic share up, and joins the means of five equal-sized groups of counties ranked by college share. In 2000 the most educated fifth of counties voted 99.3 percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, most minus least educated fifthEstimandDemocratic share in the fifth of counties with the highest college share minus that in the fifth with the lowestInterval95% CI 5.3 to 12.6n3,114Weightstwo-party votes in the electionPopulationcounties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excludedPeriod2000SourceCounty demographics panelNoteInterval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. points more Democratic than the least educated fifth, counting counties by their votes. In 2024 the gap was 3029.8 percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, most minus least educated fifthEstimandDemocratic share in the fifth of counties with the highest college share minus that in the fifth with the lowestInterval95% CI 26.4 to 33.0n3,103Weightstwo-party votes in the electionPopulationcounties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excludedPeriod2024SourceCounty demographics panelNoteInterval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. points. The two ends did not move alike. Between the two elections the vote-weighted Democratic share of the least educated fifth changed by −17−17.4 percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, changeEstimandchange in the Democratic share of a fifth of counties ranked by college share in each electionInterval95% CI −20.7 to −14.0n3,103Weightstwo-party votes in the electionPopulationcounties in fifth 1 by college share in each electionPeriod2000 to 2024SourceCounty demographics panelNoteInterval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. points and that of the most educated fifth by +3+3.1 percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, changeEstimandchange in the Democratic share of a fifth of counties ranked by college share in each electionInterval95% CI 0.5 to 5.5n3,103Weightstwo-party votes in the electionPopulationcounties in fifth 5 by college share in each electionPeriod2000 to 2024SourceCounty demographics panelNoteInterval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.. Most of the change in the gap is therefore in the least educated counties. The groups are equal in counties and not in votes, so the vote-weighted figures describe mainly the most educated counties, which cast 64.4%64.4% percent of two-party votes in the analysis countiesEstimandshare of the two-party votes cast in the fifthn621Weightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties in fifth 5 by college sharePeriod2024SourceCounty election returns of the two-party votes in 2024.

Figure 1

The most educated fifth of counties voted 29.8 points more Democratic than the least educated fifth in 2024, against 9.3 in 2000

Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote against the share of residents 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more, by county, 2024 and 2000, with the mean of five equal-sized groups of counties

20242000

Show data

Data for The most educated fifth of counties voted 29.8 points more Democratic than the least educated fifth in 2024, against 9.3 in 2000

County (largest only)	College share, 2024 (%)	Democratic share, 2024 (%)	College share, 2000 (%)	Democratic share, 2000 (%)
Maricopa, AZ	36.7	48.2	25.9	44.6
Pima, AZ	36.8	57.7	26.7	54.2
Alameda, CA	52.2	78.0	34.9	74.2
Contra Costa, CA	45.2	69.6	35.0	61.3
Fresno, CA	24.3	47.7	17.5	44.8
Los Angeles, CA	36.0	67.0	24.9	66.2
Orange, CA	44.1	51.4	30.8	42.0
Riverside, CA	25.6	49.4	16.6	46.6
Sacramento, CA	34.1	60.2	24.8	52.1
San Bernardino, CA	23.3	48.9	15.9	49.2
San Diego, CA	43.2	58.6	29.5	47.9
San Francisco, CA	60.3	83.8	45.0	82.4
San Mateo, CA	53.7	76.0	39.0	67.5
Santa Clara, CA	56.5	70.8	40.5	63.8
Ventura, CA	36.1	57.8	26.9	49.5
Arapahoe, CO	46.5	60.3	37.0	45.8
Denver, CO	56.5	78.8	34.5	66.7
El Paso, CO	41.9	45.0	31.8	32.5
Jefferson, CO	52.0	60.0	36.5	45.7
District Of Columbia, DC	64.2	93.3	39.1	90.5
Brevard, FL	34.2	39.5	23.6	45.8
Broward, FL	36.7	58.6	24.5	68.5
Duval, FL	34.4	49.3	21.9	41.5
Hillsborough, FL	38.1	48.5	25.1	48.4
Lee, FL	31.2	35.7	21.1	40.9
Miami-Dade, FL	34.4	44.2	21.7	53.2
Orange, FL	39.3	56.9	26.1	51.0
Palm Beach, FL	40.5	50.4	27.7	63.8
Pasco, FL	29.2	37.3	13.1	50.4
Pinellas, FL	36.8	47.4	22.9	52.1
Polk, FL	23.5	39.6	14.9	45.4
Volusia, FL	28.4	39.0	17.6	54.2
Cobb, GA	50.8	57.5	39.8	38.2
DeKalb, GA	47.4	82.7	36.3	72.4
Fulton, GA	58.5	72.7	41.4	59.2
Gwinnett, GA	39.0	58.4	34.1	33.5
Honolulu, HI	38.5	61.0	27.9	58.0
Cook, IL	42.7	71.3	28.0	70.6
DuPage, IL	51.8	56.8	41.7	43.1
Lake, IL	47.7	60.5	38.6	48.7
Will, IL	37.5	50.8	25.5	48.7
Marion, IN	34.8	64.1	25.4	49.3
Johnson, KS	57.6	54.3	47.7	37.8
Jefferson, KY	37.0	58.4	24.8	50.8
Anne Arundel, MD	45.8	57.2	30.6	46.2
Baltimore, MD	42.3	62.6	30.6	54.7
Montgomery, MD	60.6	77.4	54.6	65.1
Prince George's, MD	36.7	88.5	27.2	81.2
Essex, MA	43.0	60.4	31.3	61.9
Middlesex, MA	59.5	70.2	43.6	67.0
Norfolk, MA	58.8	64.7	42.9	63.8
Worcester, MA	39.7	55.1	26.9	60.4
Kent, MI	40.8	52.7	25.8	39.1
Macomb, MI	27.7	43.0	17.6	51.2
Oakland, MI	51.0	55.4	38.2	50.6
Wayne, MI	27.6	65.0	17.2	70.4
Hennepin, MN	54.1	71.8	39.1	57.7
Jackson, MO	34.0	59.8	23.4	60.6
St Louis County, MO	47.4	61.9	35.4	52.7
Clark, NV	27.8	51.3	17.3	53.4
Bergen, NJ	53.1	51.7	38.2	57.0
Essex, NJ	39.1	72.8	27.5	73.5
Middlesex, NJ	45.6	54.1	33.0	62.4
Monmouth, NJ	51.3	44.2	34.6	52.4
Ocean, NJ	34.4	31.8	19.5	49.1
Bernalillo, NM	38.2	60.8	30.5	51.1
Bronx, NY	22.4	72.7	14.6	88.0
Erie, NY	38.0	54.8	24.5	60.0
Kings, NY	42.1	72.0	21.8	83.7
Monroe, NY	41.5	59.5	31.2	53.4
Nassau, NY	49.7	47.9	35.4	60.1
New York, NY	64.2	82.4	49.4	84.7
Queens, NY	36.1	62.3	24.3	77.4
Suffolk, NY	40.2	45.0	27.5	56.0
Westchester, NY	53.1	63.1	40.9	61.0
Mecklenburg, NC	49.2	66.7	37.1	48.6
Wake, NC	57.2	63.0	43.9	46.4
Cuyahoga, OH	36.5	65.9	25.1	65.2
Franklin, OH	42.1	64.3	31.8	50.5
Hamilton, OH	41.8	57.5	29.2	44.2
Multnomah, OR	48.9	82.2	30.7	69.2
Allegheny, PA	45.8	60.3	28.3	58.4
Bucks, PA	44.8	50.0	31.2	52.2
Chester, PA	57.1	57.3	42.5	45.0
Delaware, PA	41.9	62.0	30.0	56.0
Montgomery, PA	53.0	61.5	38.7	55.0
Philadelphia, PA	35.4	79.8	17.9	81.6
Shelby, TN	34.3	62.9	25.3	57.3
Bexar, TX	31.8	54.9	22.7	46.2
Collin, TX	56.2	44.3	47.3	25.1
Dallas, TX	35.7	61.3	27.0	46.1
Denton, TX	49.4	43.3	36.6	28.2
Fort Bend, TX	50.2	50.8	36.9	39.3
Harris, TX	34.2	52.8	26.9	44.1
Montgomery, TX	38.8	27.0	25.3	22.4
Tarrant, TX	34.8	47.4	26.6	37.7
Travis, TX	56.6	70.0	40.6	47.1
Williamson, TX	48.4	48.8	33.6	29.0
Salt Lake, UT	39.4	55.3	27.4	38.5
Fairfax, VA	65.0	68.0	54.8	49.3
King, WA	56.7	76.8	40.0	63.6
Pierce, WA	30.9	55.5	20.6	53.9
Snohomish, WA	38.2	59.8	24.4	54.2
Dane, WI	55.3	76.2	40.6	65.3
Milwaukee, WI	34.7	69.6	23.6	60.7
n/a	29.1	26.6	18.0	29.2
n/a	33.7	20.7	23.1	25.5
n/a	10.6	42.6	10.9	50.4
n/a	11.7	17.6	7.1	38.8
n/a	15.8	9.2	9.6	28.2
n/a	8.1	73.0	7.7	70.3
n/a	13.5	38.6	10.4	46.6
n/a	20.6	27.4	15.2	41.4
n/a	14.9	38.3	9.5	48.2
n/a	16.5	12.0	9.7	45.7
n/a	16.5	13.8	9.9	32.3
n/a	15.8	38.0	9.6	50.7
n/a	15.0	41.4	12.1	43.9
n/a	14.7	14.8	7.8	35.5
n/a	17.0	8.0	9.2	33.3
n/a	22.5	20.8	19.3	34.4
n/a	21.7	26.6	14.1	50.1
n/a	13.4	43.0	9.2	50.8
n/a	13.9	28.2	8.0	46.9
n/a	17.2	13.6	12.2	33.1
n/a	18.7	22.6	11.2	40.9
n/a	19.7	9.4	11.9	33.7
n/a	20.4	23.6	14.0	31.7
n/a	17.5	66.4	13.9	59.8
n/a	14.1	12.8	8.3	35.5
n/a	25.4	23.8	16.6	28.4
n/a	13.5	26.7	10.6	39.3
n/a	18.1	22.0	13.4	45.3
n/a	14.9	13.8	9.2	40.1
n/a	15.8	13.1	9.7	43.9
n/a	13.2	11.3	8.7	29.6
n/a	15.1	78.0	10.5	80.5
n/a	17.6	53.4	8.1	60.9
n/a	21.8	24.5	14.1	40.7
n/a	23.0	25.9	18.4	29.8
n/a	15.9	14.0	10.4	51.7
n/a	36.2	55.3	24.6	48.4
n/a	12.1	11.8	7.8	37.2
n/a	29.8	24.0	18.5	44.3
n/a	15.2	18.6	7.5	52.6
n/a	42.4	35.9	27.9	39.4
n/a	30.2	27.8	16.9	38.8
n/a	14.4	68.7	11.0	73.6
n/a	21.1	78.3	18.8	87.5
n/a	46.4	45.4	34.3	43.7
n/a	19.5	48.1	12.1	50.8
n/a	13.3	8.9	8.0	40.0
n/a	21.5	13.9	13.9	37.8
n/a	26.0	41.7	18.6	42.9
n/a	11.7	38.4	11.8	42.1
n/a	34.5	65.5	28.5	51.0
n/a	23.3	23.5	18.4	38.4
n/a	15.8	71.4	10.0	69.9
n/a	13.1	38.3	9.8	49.0
n/a	28.0	37.3	18.4	41.8
n/a	18.4	17.4	10.0	39.9
n/a	18.2	50.8	9.7	57.5
n/a	21.4	17.7	11.1	27.5
n/a	46.8	29.3	36.8	21.7
n/a	19.0	70.7	12.4	73.0
n/a	16.5	33.0	11.2	44.9
n/a	20.3	25.1	14.1	38.7
n/a	32.1	39.7	24.0	42.0
n/a	16.6	13.9	9.1	46.3
n/a	17.0	22.2	8.6	45.1
n/a	12.9	65.8	10.1	67.5
n/a	14.3	8.0	8.3	29.6
n/a	16.6	59.6	11.3	68.7
n/a	28.1	38.3	18.8	42.4
n/a	40.3	60.1	29.9	53.6
n/a	18.7	31.0	13.9	45.7
n/a	14.6	25.7	11.8	35.8
n/a	20.9	29.2	12.2	42.9
n/a	13.5	27.8	8.7	41.0
n/a	15.2	21.9	9.9	41.7
n/a	19.1	41.3	12.3	48.8
n/a	22.5	38.9	11.9	49.4
n/a	23.1	59.4	15.2	61.0
n/a	30.3	32.9	21.1	37.5
n/a	16.8	39.7	11.8	43.4
n/a	13.6	27.6	12.2	46.2
n/a	12.8	25.6	10.1	52.3
n/a	19.4	21.1	12.8	40.6
n/a	37.8	36.1	20.3	33.2
n/a	17.2	17.0	12.7	34.4
n/a	15.3	30.3	11.9	54.2
n/a	19.8	18.5	7.3	47.4
n/a	20.0	33.8	13.8	39.3
n/a	18.0	52.0	11.7	64.3
n/a	26.2	39.5	19.8	55.2
n/a	15.3	18.6	7.4	61.0
n/a	18.4	15.5	13.9	41.8
n/a	19.7	15.7	10.0	45.7
n/a	21.9	31.5	16.8	44.4
n/a	19.9	29.4	11.5	49.7
n/a	29.7	30.8	20.9	50.4
n/a	20.0	20.3	9.7	36.8
n/a	17.0	51.2	12.8	55.2
n/a	18.4	25.7	9.9	50.5
n/a	11.3	35.0	9.6	52.1
n/a	12.6	47.6	11.1	63.4
n/a	25.6	32.8	17.3	52.6
n/a	35.0	33.4	25.2	42.7
n/a	14.5	18.1	11.0	44.9
n/a	16.0	18.3	10.5	49.3
n/a	25.3	31.5	18.0	45.3
n/a	21.5	15.0	11.0	43.6
n/a	16.9	18.9	10.9	52.0
n/a	16.3	29.8	11.0	54.7
n/a	17.5	23.4	11.2	52.3
n/a	16.2	26.3	11.6	47.0
n/a	18.1	19.6	13.7	45.6
n/a	19.7	16.4	11.7	52.9
n/a	14.7	25.2	10.3	61.6
n/a	20.1	60.2	15.7	66.9
n/a	17.8	23.7	13.1	47.2
n/a	9.0	30.5	9.5	54.0
n/a	14.5	17.3	8.5	55.3
n/a	7.2	51.8	7.3	66.9
n/a	12.0	24.5	7.6	56.2
n/a	17.2	22.5	9.9	55.8
n/a	16.7	18.2	9.4	42.3
n/a	22.1	22.6	14.6	39.2
n/a	12.9	20.2	10.1	37.8
n/a	14.9	19.4	10.4	39.6
n/a	15.0	24.1	12.5	46.3
n/a	13.7	33.9	11.3	57.8
n/a	12.7	42.0	8.4	59.0
n/a	16.7	17.8	8.8	40.3
n/a	13.8	29.8	10.7	51.0
n/a	15.7	17.4	11.8	32.3
n/a	16.3	40.3	12.7	53.6
n/a	16.5	20.6	11.1	43.8
n/a	15.0	56.8	12.4	65.6
n/a	19.1	13.0	10.1	41.4
n/a	11.4	17.7	6.3	57.9
n/a	17.8	14.1	10.9	33.5
n/a	24.7	23.2	19.0	37.2
n/a	18.2	16.6	9.0	45.6
n/a	37.9	61.4	28.1	55.0
n/a	12.1	17.5	10.6	53.0
n/a	14.2	50.4	9.6	59.4
n/a	29.4	29.5	16.4	40.6
n/a	13.0	12.7	8.4	37.6
n/a	15.0	13.4	8.4	32.0
n/a	23.3	30.8	16.6	39.8
n/a	9.3	18.6	9.2	49.8
n/a	13.9	18.0	10.3	46.7
n/a	15.8	18.5	9.8	43.8
n/a	19.1	33.0	14.9	42.0
n/a	15.0	19.3	11.5	47.9
n/a	35.2	46.6	24.5	43.1
n/a	20.4	18.7	15.5	38.8
n/a	16.2	33.4	8.0	65.4
n/a	14.9	19.1	10.9	48.7
n/a	41.1	66.3	28.2	48.5
n/a	22.4	35.7	16.6	40.3
n/a	31.9	48.4	21.8	40.7
n/a	23.9	35.6	17.1	40.1
n/a	16.4	35.5	10.6	32.5
n/a	21.4	41.6	11.0	40.8
n/a	40.0	43.8	26.5	38.4
n/a	15.1	32.1	10.7	30.1
n/a	33.1	64.9	23.0	51.7
n/a	16.1	49.6	10.3	55.3
n/a	31.5	48.5	17.1	36.0
n/a	18.8	39.2	13.5	37.4
n/a	13.6	38.2	10.4	40.3
n/a	17.8	49.3	12.1	55.2
n/a	13.1	22.3	10.7	29.6
n/a	17.9	39.3	12.0	36.5
n/a	61.1	82.8	51.3	69.4
n/a	31.8	39.2	20.2	37.3
n/a	25.2	64.0	20.2	57.5
n/a	15.3	47.8	11.0	46.5
n/a	24.8	25.9	12.4	24.1
n/a	32.2	60.6	28.9	43.8
n/a	28.2	65.4	22.5	60.7
n/a	39.8	68.0	26.4	57.7
n/a	41.5	56.3	26.1	40.5
n/a	43.2	45.6	30.3	37.8
n/a	22.5	41.3	17.5	35.3
n/a	24.1	56.5	17.1	56.6
n/a	22.7	49.5	14.5	49.4
n/a	39.8	55.6	26.7	43.9
n/a	36.8	63.8	29.4	50.7
n/a	43.9	78.3	34.2	69.2
n/a	23.8	31.3	16.6	31.7
n/a	25.8	37.6	17.2	31.5
n/a	23.3	40.1	17.7	34.1
n/a	28.8	61.8	21.4	59.3
n/a	38.5	73.9	28.5	64.9
n/a	19.6	44.4	14.1	45.7
n/a	20.9	33.9	15.3	32.7
n/a	19.3	28.6	11.3	32.9
n/a	22.4	45.1	15.5	36.6
n/a	16.6	39.4	11.5	37.9
n/a	24.6	38.8	16.1	41.5
n/a	44.8	68.8	34.1	59.4
n/a	17.7	36.7	10.3	36.1
n/a	29.0	54.6	17.4	53.2
n/a	32.4	44.4	27.0	46.2
n/a	40.9	42.8	29.0	32.4
n/a	24.7	14.0	14.0	24.2
n/a	15.7	30.1	11.5	41.7
n/a	64.2	78.7	52.4	57.9
n/a	60.3	64.7	n/a	n/a
n/a	47.0	57.0	24.3	39.2
n/a	26.1	10.4	14.2	17.9
n/a	57.5	58.6	38.8	49.3
n/a	25.7	40.8	14.4	49.7
n/a	24.9	57.6	12.8	67.7
n/a	12.4	25.5	11.9	37.4
n/a	43.7	31.5	26.7	25.9
n/a	26.6	31.8	17.6	28.1
n/a	28.1	23.2	13.5	28.3
n/a	62.0	46.4	51.9	32.6
n/a	50.9	62.5	42.6	48.6
n/a	36.1	23.9	26.6	27.4
n/a	22.0	30.3	13.5	34.8
n/a	33.6	51.1	23.8	40.1
n/a	52.8	56.6	31.2	52.2
n/a	42.7	49.6	34.5	39.3
n/a	64.7	65.1	43.6	49.4
n/a	47.7	43.6	34.9	37.3
n/a	26.4	45.6	16.1	50.5
n/a	31.3	21.4	19.9	20.2
n/a	20.1	12.1	16.1	22.5
n/a	20.4	15.3	15.4	24.1
n/a	49.5	58.5	19.5	55.1
n/a	49.3	59.6	36.4	44.0
n/a	53.0	59.1	39.5	42.5
n/a	19.3	43.1	16.2	55.8
n/a	26.1	17.1	13.2	23.8
n/a	20.1	21.1	14.6	29.3
n/a	32.3	37.5	22.0	32.3
n/a	51.7	43.2	31.2	36.4
n/a	19.4	17.9	12.5	24.2
n/a	31.3	39.2	21.0	29.3
n/a	28.7	33.3	18.7	30.4
n/a	17.8	25.1	13.5	33.5
n/a	18.2	36.4	15.4	42.1
n/a	56.5	60.8	36.8	35.5
n/a	41.6	41.5	30.3	39.4
n/a	31.5	17.9	19.9	26.4
n/a	62.8	72.6	57.1	61.7
n/a	19.3	24.2	11.9	31.0
n/a	25.6	47.4	18.3	55.9
n/a	24.7	17.6	19.5	19.9
n/a	34.5	38.1	18.8	35.4
n/a	54.2	64.3	42.5	48.5
n/a	31.3	51.9	19.6	51.5
n/a	52.1	66.7	43.7	41.5
n/a	64.9	75.4	48.5	60.5
n/a	27.2	21.3	13.4	30.5
n/a	55.0	69.2	48.3	54.1
n/a	37.9	31.8	31.7	29.8
n/a	24.9	11.9	14.3	20.3
n/a	33.2	39.2	21.6	38.5
n/a	25.3	16.6	15.5	25.5
n/a	n/a	n/a	39.9	54.8
n/a	n/a	n/a	29.6	63.4
n/a	n/a	n/a	27.5	51.6
n/a	n/a	n/a	33.8	59.7
n/a	n/a	n/a	27.6	61.7
n/a	n/a	n/a	26.2	59.5
n/a	n/a	n/a	32.8	57.6
n/a	n/a	n/a	19.0	59.0
n/a	27.5	51.0	18.6	48.6
n/a	39.7	66.5	29.5	61.9
n/a	33.0	44.5	16.6	46.2
n/a	48.8	60.6	38.7	58.1
n/a	17.8	13.3	8.2	29.9
n/a	29.6	26.1	17.7	32.8
n/a	15.2	21.2	8.4	36.2
n/a	13.6	16.0	7.7	42.9
n/a	27.0	32.9	17.6	45.6
n/a	20.6	26.9	13.2	46.1
n/a	28.3	30.2	20.1	25.9
n/a	40.3	33.4	27.9	33.1
n/a	16.8	24.7	10.9	39.1
n/a	10.8	28.4	8.4	43.8
n/a	10.7	14.6	6.8	40.4
n/a	29.7	40.1	21.0	35.9
n/a	31.3	35.8	21.2	52.4
n/a	27.9	27.9	12.4	45.5
n/a	21.3	65.5	12.9	67.1
n/a	15.3	15.7	9.4	36.7
n/a	13.4	23.2	9.8	43.9
n/a	23.5	22.8	10.1	40.3
n/a	11.0	30.3	7.3	44.5
n/a	12.1	21.7	8.4	38.3
n/a	12.2	30.7	8.2	40.6
n/a	21.1	31.3	12.7	51.6
n/a	20.5	29.5	13.6	41.2
n/a	12.5	9.7	8.8	30.3
n/a	33.8	36.2	23.1	40.8
n/a	15.1	26.8	12.8	42.9
n/a	19.2	40.6	16.9	55.1
n/a	9.9	11.8	7.2	32.1
n/a	27.8	37.6	16.6	42.2
n/a	48.9	61.0	41.7	61.1
n/a	16.5	24.7	10.6	44.0
n/a	16.5	16.3	7.4	43.6
n/a	13.9	35.5	10.2	49.8
n/a	35.4	38.2	20.8	45.9
n/a	23.4	34.1	13.7	44.8
n/a	37.1	34.3	26.3	43.9
n/a	38.6	40.8	25.5	50.7
n/a	35.6	26.3	18.9	29.8
n/a	34.8	28.5	24.2	24.6
n/a	15.8	23.0	8.9	47.6
n/a	29.8	49.3	15.7	51.8
n/a	14.5	25.9	9.4	47.4
n/a	50.9	34.2	33.1	33.0
n/a	26.7	45.4	15.1	54.5
n/a	32.0	24.3	22.9	26.1
n/a	40.8	40.8	27.4	46.7
n/a	42.7	48.2	31.0	43.9
n/a	35.3	31.1	12.2	44.3
n/a	16.6	19.4	10.5	33.7
n/a	16.5	20.0	8.9	39.5
n/a	11.1	15.7	7.5	37.6
n/a	23.3	27.6	15.7	46.0
n/a	35.0	20.9	16.2	31.7
n/a	11.5	17.1	9.2	35.9
n/a	11.2	18.7	8.4	34.7
n/a	8.9	23.0	6.9	40.1
n/a	10.4	13.4	6.6	32.2
n/a	16.7	40.1	10.7	59.2
n/a	24.4	48.9	16.2	49.4
n/a	18.6	10.8	8.6	27.6
n/a	21.2	29.6	10.9	31.6
n/a	24.3	24.4	14.1	33.8
n/a	13.0	33.9	9.5	48.4
n/a	15.7	15.0	9.4	37.6
n/a	26.3	61.3	21.3	50.9
n/a	19.8	22.2	12.5	34.3
n/a	14.5	8.7	6.2	30.6
n/a	15.8	36.6	11.3	46.6
n/a	36.1	31.7	19.3	31.0
n/a	32.5	35.4	25.4	38.2
n/a	15.5	45.3	9.5	52.4
n/a	14.4	27.3	8.6	41.6
n/a	13.0	56.2	11.7	59.0
n/a	24.6	32.1	16.0	36.3
n/a	16.0	26.2	10.2	39.1
n/a	23.8	29.3	16.5	34.9
n/a	24.2	22.1	13.8	31.3
n/a	12.3	21.8	6.4	36.4
n/a	37.7	59.1	25.0	49.8
n/a	29.6	41.7	25.0	50.4
n/a	12.0	17.8	7.7	42.8
n/a	41.1	30.3	27.0	24.4
n/a	47.4	69.3	39.8	56.1
n/a	23.4	53.8	10.1	64.7
n/a	22.5	84.8	16.6	66.7
n/a	9.1	24.2	10.4	42.8
n/a	13.9	27.4	10.0	38.4
n/a	15.5	24.8	11.4	33.4
n/a	38.5	37.1	32.0	25.2
n/a	17.9	26.7	8.1	41.8
n/a	36.2	32.9	20.6	29.8
n/a	14.5	25.0	6.8	43.2
n/a	15.3	37.0	12.8	40.8
n/a	18.4	16.5	10.9	32.8
n/a	36.4	17.2	18.1	25.7
n/a	15.1	38.0	12.1	44.8
n/a	17.2	25.0	11.6	40.1
n/a	14.8	46.1	9.6	54.5
n/a	22.8	70.6	17.8	57.6
n/a	30.8	65.8	19.2	37.1
n/a	14.7	44.3	12.6	45.6
n/a	15.7	8.9	8.4	30.7
n/a	27.2	25.3	13.6	30.6
n/a	16.3	28.2	9.8	43.7
n/a	13.5	27.9	10.1	45.9
n/a	14.5	28.7	9.0	39.8
n/a	24.2	17.5	10.4	33.4
n/a	49.9	48.4	36.2	28.9
n/a	25.9	28.9	15.8	38.8
n/a	57.1	33.3	34.6	19.4
n/a	17.8	13.6	10.3	35.8
n/a	24.9	18.6	12.9	31.1
n/a	17.0	8.0	6.5	24.6
n/a	32.4	36.9	23.8	35.2
n/a	18.8	18.1	10.6	33.7
n/a	16.4	30.8	10.6	41.1
n/a	37.8	35.5	17.6	41.8
n/a	24.6	17.4	15.8	26.6
n/a	27.3	28.0	18.7	27.7
n/a	10.3	67.7	9.8	78.5
n/a	17.0	12.7	9.0	35.8
n/a	38.0	26.8	21.1	34.4
n/a	20.8	22.5	13.5	42.9

Showing the first 500 of 3115 rows.

Counted votes and interpolated college shares

The votes are counted, not sampled. The returns are the county presidential results for the seven elections from 2000 to 2024, from the Algara and Amlani county file through 2020 and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024. Alaska is left out because it reports by election district. Each election uses the counties with returns and a complete set of county characteristics, 3,1033,103 countiesEstimandcount of counties in the estimatesn3,103Weightsnone (full counts)Populationcounties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excludedPeriod2024SourceCounty election returns of them in 2024. College share comes from the 2000 census sample and from five-year American Community Survey estimates centered on 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022, interpolated between those anchors. The shares for 2004 to 2020 are interpolations, and 2024 takes the 2022 anchor. Every estimate is computed both ways, counting counties by their two-party votes, so that the largest counties count most, and counting each county once. A full count has no sampling error, so the intervals here answer a different question, how much a number depends on which states are in the set, by resampling whole states. They leave out the sampling error of the college shares, and the regressions are descriptive. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.

Two rises, then a change that depends on the version

Figure 2 plots the slope for each election. Vote-weighted, it rose from 2000 to 2008, stayed level to 2012 and rose again to 2016, when the change from the election before, +3.2+3.2 points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two electionsEstimandchange in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier electionInterval95% CI 2.7 to 3.8n3,113Weightstwo-party votes in the electionPopulationcounties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excludedPeriod2012 to 2016SourceCounty demographics panelNoteInterval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. points, was the largest between consecutive elections. After 2016 the unadjusted vote-weighted slope is level. Its change from 2016 to 2024 is 0.0 (95% CI −0.4 to 0.4)0.0 points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two electionsEstimandchange in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier electionInterval95% CI −0.4 to 0.4n3,103Weightstwo-party votes in the electionPopulationcounties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excludedPeriod2016 to 2024SourceCounty demographics panelNoteInterval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. points, an interval that includes zero. Counting each county once, the slope sits below the vote-weighted slope in every election, and it was still rising from 2016 to 2020, so its change from 2016 to 2024 has an interval above zero.

Whether the slope kept rising after 2016 therefore depends on the version of the slope. The chapter fits five adjusted versions as well. They hold the racial and ethnic composition of residents fixed, compare counties within states, do both, or apply each county's 2000 or 2024 college share to every election. In all five the vote-weighted change from 2016 to 2024 is positive, between +0.4+0.4 points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two electionsEstimandlowest of the 2016 to 2024 changes in the slope across five adjusted versions (race and ethnicity held fixed, within states, both, 2000 college share held fixed, 2024 college share held fixed)Weightstwo-party votes in the electionPopulationcounties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excludedPeriod2016 to 2024SourceCounty demographics panel and +1.1+1.1 points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two electionsEstimandhighest of the 2016 to 2024 changes in the slope across five adjusted versions (race and ethnicity held fixed, within states, both, 2000 college share held fixed, 2024 college share held fixed)Weightstwo-party votes in the electionPopulationcounties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excludedPeriod2016 to 2024SourceCounty demographics panel points, each with an interval above zero. The slope is therefore level after 2016 only in the unadjusted vote-weighted version (Table 2). The correlationCorrelationA number from minus 1 to plus 1 for how closely two measures move together in a straight-line pattern. Zero means no straight-line pattern; a correlation does not say that one measure causes the other. does not follow the unadjusted slope either. Vote-weighted, it rose from 2016 to 2024, to +0.66+0.66 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation of college share with the Democratic share of the two-party voteInterval95% CI 0.62 to 0.71n3,103Weightstwo-party votes in the electionPopulationcounties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excludedPeriod2024SourceCounty demographics panelNoteInterval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.. A correlation also reflects how much counties differ on each measure, and over those years the vote-weighted standard deviation of college share across counties rose while that of the Democratic share fell. The slope says how many points more Democratic a county with more graduates was, and the correlation says how closely the two measures move together across counties.

Figure 2

Vote-weighted, the slope of the vote on county college share rose from 3.9 to 9.2 points per 10 points of college share, in steps before 2008 and between 2012 and 2016

Slope of a county's Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote on the share of its residents 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more, 2000 to 2024, vote-weighted and county-equal

SlopeCorrelation

Points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share

Show data

Data for Vote-weighted, the slope of the vote on county college share rose from 3.9 to 9.2 points per 10 points of college share, in steps before 2008 and between 2012 and 2016

conf_high	conf_low	estimate	measure	n_units	weighting	year
5.14	2.45	3.87	Slope	3,114	Vote-weighted	2000
6.38	3.90	5.18	Slope	3,113	Vote-weighted	2004
7.02	4.73	5.94	Slope	3,113	Vote-weighted	2008
7.00	4.89	5.99	Slope	3,112	Vote-weighted	2012
10.26	8.23	9.23	Slope	3,113	Vote-weighted	2016
10.30	8.52	9.35	Slope	3,105	Vote-weighted	2020
10.12	8.42	9.22	Slope	3,103	Vote-weighted	2024
2.99	0.089	1.56	Slope	3,114	County-equal	2000
4.58	1.96	3.30	Slope	3,113	County-equal	2004
6.15	4.06	5.11	Slope	3,113	County-equal	2008
6.36	3.93	5.15	Slope	3,112	County-equal	2012
9.36	6.48	7.95	Slope	3,113	County-equal	2016
10.03	7.31	8.73	Slope	3,105	County-equal	2020
9.79	7.24	8.59	Slope	3,103	County-equal	2024
0.365	0.189	0.282	Correlation	3,114	Vote-weighted	2000
0.453	0.297	0.378	Correlation	3,113	Vote-weighted	2004
0.491	0.357	0.427	Correlation	3,113	Vote-weighted	2008
0.478	0.351	0.415	Correlation	3,112	Vote-weighted	2012
0.637	0.528	0.577	Correlation	3,113	Vote-weighted	2016
0.693	0.594	0.637	Correlation	3,105	Vote-weighted	2020
0.713	0.621	0.663	Correlation	3,103	Vote-weighted	2024
0.196	0.005	0.099	Correlation	3,114	County-equal	2000
0.304	0.118	0.211	Correlation	3,113	County-equal	2004
0.395	0.231	0.310	Correlation	3,113	County-equal	2008
0.398	0.219	0.305	Correlation	3,112	County-equal	2012
0.564	0.355	0.460	Correlation	3,113	County-equal	2016
0.626	0.427	0.530	Correlation	3,105	County-equal	2020
0.656	0.452	0.559	Correlation	3,103	County-equal	2024

Inside states the slope is lower and still positive

The slope compares counties across the whole country, so part of it could be the difference between states, which share candidates, campaigns and election law. Giving each state its own baseline, a fixed effectFixed effectsRegression terms that give each group, such as each country or each year, its own baseline. The other coefficients then compare respondents within the same group., lowers the slope in every election in both weightings. Vote-weighted, the within-state slope of 2024 is 8.38.3 points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college shareEstimandslope of the Democratic share on college share within states (state fixed effects)Interval95% CI 7.6 to 9.1n3,103Weightstwo-party votes in the electionPopulationcounties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excludedPeriod2024SourceCounty demographics panelNoteInterval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. points, below the slope across all counties that opens this essay. Holding the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents fixed lowers it as well. Under both adjustments the rises from 2000 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2016 remain, with intervals above zero. With race and ethnicity held fixed, the largest change between consecutive elections is again from 2012 to 2016. Figure 3 fits the slope inside each state with enough counties, and in 2024 it is positive in every one of them, counting counties by their votes, which it was not in 2000. The estimates here describe the level of the vote in each election, and Chapter 8.2, Education, ethnicity and the county shift, 2016 to 2024 follows a county's own change from 2016 to 2024.

These are descriptions of counties, and they do not say how graduates voted. Chapter 3.4, The diploma divide asks that question of individuals, and the two chapters differ in population and in denominator. There the population is survey respondents who reported a vote, grouped by their own degree, and each share is of the voters within a group. Here the population is counties, the grouping is the share of residents 2525 years of ageEstimandlower age limit of the college shareWeightsnone (full counts)Populationresidents counted in the college sharePeriod2000 to 2024SourceCounty demographics panel and older with a degree, voters or not, and the share is of each county's two-party vote. A county with more graduates also differs from other counties in occupations, ages, densities and histories, and this chapter holds only racial and ethnic composition and state fixed. Chapter 8.1, Five axes of the county vote ranks education against income, race, age and rurality.

Figure 3

The vote-weighted slope was positive in every one of the 39 states in 2024, against 29 in 2000

Slope of the county Democratic share on county college share inside each state with at least 20 counties, 2000 and 2024, vote-weighted, with 95% intervals

Vote-weightedCounty-equal

• 2000
• 2024

Slope: points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, counties inside the state

Show data

Data for The vote-weighted slope was positive in every one of the 39 states in 2024, against 29 in 2000

hi_2000	hi_2024	lo_2000	lo_2024	n_units	slope_2000	slope_2024	state	weighting
4.25	12.24	−6.92	1.34	67	−1.34	6.79	Alabama	Vote-weighted
13.48	19.68	−12.63	0.982	75	0.425	10.33	Arkansas	Vote-weighted
11.81	9.90	3.16	5.28	58	7.49	7.59	California	Vote-weighted
7.60	14.37	−3.08	1.89	64	2.26	8.13	Colorado	Vote-weighted
9.36	12.15	0.601	4.17	67	4.98	8.16	Florida	Vote-weighted
9.90	12.46	−2.74	4.17	159	3.58	8.32	Georgia	Vote-weighted
8.05	13.60	4.30	6.56	44	6.17	10.08	Idaho	Vote-weighted
12.60	21.38	−8.53	3.36	102	2.03	12.37	Illinois	Vote-weighted
7.35	16.66	−9.34	−3.48	92	−0.995	6.59	Indiana	Vote-weighted
5.86	12.39	1.35	6.24	99	3.61	9.32	Iowa	Vote-weighted
5.74	13.32	−5.26	1.08	105	0.241	7.20	Kansas	Vote-weighted
7.28	17.28	−1.38	7.64	120	2.95	12.46	Kentucky	Vote-weighted
13.94	23.63	−8.09	−0.026	64	2.92	11.80	Louisiana	Vote-weighted
9.81	12.59	−7.36	−1.57	24	1.22	5.51	Maryland	Vote-weighted
4.57	10.15	−6.20	1.34	83	−0.812	5.74	Michigan	Vote-weighted
7.01	14.69	1.68	8.83	87	4.34	11.76	Minnesota	Vote-weighted
7.05	6.86	−8.14	−2.35	82	−0.545	2.25	Mississippi	Vote-weighted
5.46	16.31	1.81	10.60	115	3.64	13.45	Missouri	Vote-weighted
8.07	14.05	−4.05	3.24	56	2.01	8.64	Montana	Vote-weighted
11.30	20.28	3.98	9.52	93	7.64	14.90	Nebraska	Vote-weighted
1.35	6.84	−9.13	−4.96	21	−3.89	0.942	New Jersey	Vote-weighted
11.83	15.93	−2.57	5.33	33	4.63	10.63	New Mexico	Vote-weighted
15.46	14.71	−8.09	−1.12	62	3.68	6.79	New York	Vote-weighted
5.92	11.89	0.959	6.47	100	3.44	9.18	North Carolina	Vote-weighted
6.72	20.34	−2.70	−1.48	53	2.01	9.43	North Dakota	Vote-weighted
7.27	16.51	−2.12	4.59	88	2.57	10.55	Ohio	Vote-weighted
−2.06	18.15	−6.05	8.21	77	−4.06	13.18	Oklahoma	Vote-weighted
19.45	19.07	0.858	7.39	36	10.15	13.23	Oregon	Vote-weighted
7.90	12.77	−5.45	6.25	67	1.23	9.51	Pennsylvania	Vote-weighted
8.05	8.64	−10.77	−0.770	46	−1.36	3.93	South Carolina	Vote-weighted
8.01	10.23	−2.92	1.17	65	2.55	5.70	South Dakota	Vote-weighted
7.22	18.79	−5.77	−0.834	95	0.726	8.98	Tennessee	Vote-weighted
2.84	11.09	−5.23	2.76	254	−1.20	6.92	Texas	Vote-weighted
11.47	18.18	−13.16	−4.08	29	−0.844	7.05	Utah	Vote-weighted
3.36	8.88	0.238	5.81	133	1.80	7.35	Virginia	Vote-weighted
14.86	11.70	1.24	8.65	39	8.05	10.17	Washington	Vote-weighted
3.59	12.71	−4.17	6.28	55	−0.291	9.50	West Virginia	Vote-weighted
15.00	17.54	−11.78	−1.89	72	1.61	7.82	Wisconsin	Vote-weighted
8.04	15.78	3.21	6.61	23	5.62	11.19	Wyoming	Vote-weighted
1.13	6.80	−8.94	−3.22	67	−3.90	1.79	Alabama	County-equal
1.32	10.30	−9.57	−0.588	75	−4.12	4.85	Arkansas	County-equal
11.95	11.52	6.92	8.36	58	9.43	9.94	California	County-equal
6.89	12.04	2.32	8.40	64	4.61	10.22	Colorado	County-equal
6.07	10.24	0.225	5.77	67	3.15	8.00	Florida	County-equal
1.72	7.03	−5.22	1.36	159	−1.75	4.20	Georgia	County-equal
10.19	13.08	2.40	4.49	44	6.29	8.79	Idaho	County-equal
3.00	13.11	−1.04	9.00	102	0.980	11.06	Illinois	County-equal
3.53	11.24	−4.22	5.41	92	−0.342	8.33	Indiana	County-equal
5.35	10.77	−0.203	6.34	99	2.57	8.55	Iowa	County-equal
7.13	12.34	0.182	4.14	105	3.65	8.24	Kansas	County-equal
4.51	11.15	−0.847	7.64	120	1.83	9.39	Kentucky	County-equal
6.18	14.00	−5.89	−0.050	64	0.147	6.97	Louisiana	County-equal
7.05	11.24	0.035	6.30	24	3.54	8.77	Maryland	County-equal
4.12	9.52	−2.23	6.37	83	0.944	7.94	Michigan	County-equal
4.49	11.92	−0.147	7.39	87	2.17	9.65	Minnesota	County-equal
2.14	3.05	−6.67	−5.03	82	−2.26	−0.988	Mississippi	County-equal
4.65	13.54	0.435	8.00	115	2.54	10.77	Missouri	County-equal
7.97	12.09	−1.91	1.13	56	3.03	6.61	Montana	County-equal
6.62	11.06	−3.30	−0.415	93	1.66	5.32	Nebraska	County-equal
0.535	5.35	−6.43	−0.762	21	−2.95	2.29	New Jersey	County-equal
11.60	12.67	−7.84	2.12	33	1.88	7.40	New Mexico	County-equal
10.01	11.39	3.23	6.91	62	6.62	9.15	New York	County-equal
4.17	8.09	−2.25	2.66	100	0.958	5.38	North Carolina	County-equal
7.72	11.88	−4.56	−9.19	53	1.58	1.34	North Dakota	County-equal
4.79	12.17	−1.84	6.20	88	1.48	9.19	Ohio	County-equal
−3.50	9.28	−13.85	1.95	77	−8.68	5.62	Oklahoma	County-equal
16.56	16.26	2.82	10.08	36	9.69	13.17	Oregon	County-equal
8.32	13.51	1.93	8.75	67	5.12	11.13	Pennsylvania	County-equal
−1.12	2.56	−14.77	−6.26	46	−7.94	−1.85	South Carolina	County-equal
6.13	5.60	−7.79	−7.61	65	−0.828	−1.01	South Dakota	County-equal
−0.877	11.72	−6.73	3.37	95	−3.80	7.55	Tennessee	County-equal
−3.14	6.14	−9.29	1.66	254	−6.21	3.90	Texas	County-equal
10.29	12.33	−7.18	5.39	29	1.55	8.86	Utah	County-equal
2.69	9.15	−0.437	6.47	133	1.13	7.81	Virginia	County-equal
11.47	13.43	1.37	8.37	39	6.42	10.90	Washington	County-equal
4.10	10.47	−6.09	7.28	55	−0.995	8.87	West Virginia	County-equal
5.28	10.39	−5.93	2.56	72	−0.327	6.48	Wisconsin	County-equal
8.10	16.43	4.45	6.79	23	6.27	11.61	Wyoming	County-equal

What county slopes cannot tell you

Every estimate here describes counties, and a pattern across places can differ from the pattern among the people who live in them, a limit known as ecological inferenceEcological inferenceDrawing a conclusion about individuals from data on groups or places, such as counties. A pattern across counties can differ from the pattern among the people who live in them.. Robinson [1] showed that a correlation across places can have the opposite sign from the one across individuals. Counties gain and lose graduates by migration, so a change in the slope can reflect where people live as well as how they vote. The vote is the Democratic share of Democratic and Republican votes cast, so a change in turnout can change a county's share without any voter changing party. The data hold no measure of attitudes, candidates, campaigns or turnout by group, so they cannot say why the slope rose when it did. They hold no county college share before 2000, so they cannot date the start of the gradient. Grossmann and Hopkins give a book-length account of the diploma divide among individuals [2].

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Go deeper

• The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
• Tables: every figure of the report as a table.
• Neighborhoods: the explorer for this part.

Same question at another grain:

• Education
  • Chapter 3.4, The diploma divide Individuals
  • Planned, Political knowledge and constraint (planned) Individuals
  • Planned, Education and ideology (planned) Countries

Reading paths that include this chapter:

• Education and the vote

Data sources

• County election returnsCounty presidential returns, 1972-2024 (2000-2024 for the estimates; 1972-1996 for the 2000-ranking check): Algara and Amlani (to 2020) and MIT Election Data and Science Lab (2024), repaired fileYears: President 1868-2024 (40 elections); House and Senate 1990-2024 · Weights: none (full counts of votes); estimates weighted by two-party votes in the election, or county-equal · License: The Heideman file is CC BY 4.0 (doi:10.5281/zenodo.22976553), but the state records behind it keep their own terms, and the sites of Florida, Indiana, Colorado and Wisconsin restrict reuse.
• County demographics panelCounty demographics panel, 2000-2024: share of residents 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more, and non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian sharesYears: 2000-2024 (election years, interpolated between census and survey anchors) · Weights: none (census and American Community Survey estimates, interpolated to election years; sampling error not carried) · License: US government source data, public domain. The interpolated panel is derived work.

All data sources

References

1. Robinson, W. S. (1950). Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals. American Sociological Review 15(3): 351-357.
2. Grossmann, Matt; Hopkins, David A. (2024). Polarized by Degrees: How the Diploma Divide and the Culture War Transformed American Politics. Cambridge University Press.

How to cite

@misc{singh2026thediplomamap,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {The diploma map},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-diploma-map},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 3 October 2026.}
}