Chapter 4.2
Immigration
In the American National Election Studies, the share wanting fewer immigrants was 3.3 points higher among Republicans than Democrats in 1992 and 28.3 points higher in 2024.
The American National Election Studies (ANES) has asked since 1992 whether the number of immigrants permitted to come to the United States to live should be increased, left the same or decreased. In 1992 the Republican share answering decreased exceeded the Democratic share by 3.3 (95% CI −1.2 to 7.9)3.3 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the ANES question on the number of immigrants (VCF0879a), answer decreasedInterval95% CI −1.2 to 7.9n1,898Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES immigration level questionPeriod1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File pointsPercentage pointThe unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused., a gap too small to distinguish from zero.Democrats and Republicans include independents who say they lean toward a party, the leanersPartisan leanerA respondent who first says they are independent but, when asked, says they lean toward one party. Most figures group leaners with the party they lean toward, and each chapter says which grouping it uses., throughout this essay. Independents are the respondents who lean toward neither. In 2024, on the same question, the gap was 28.328.3 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the ANES question on the number of immigrants (VCF0879a), answer decreasedInterval95% CI 24.3 to 32.4n4,560Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES immigration level questionPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points. That question asks how many people the country should admit. How partisans feel toward illegal immigrants and toward Hispanics is a separate measure, and it divided the parties over the first group more than over the second.
The gap widened between 2008 and 2016 in both surveys
The chapter scores each question for its restrictive answer, here wanting fewer immigrants, and measures the party divide as a gap, the Republican share minus the Democratic share, in points. A positive gap means that Republicans were more likely to give that answer. Figure 1 plots the gap for every survey year. In the ANES the interval around the gap includes zero in every study from 1992 to 2008 except 2000, and from 2012 on every interval lies above zero. The gap reached 3434.3 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the ANES question on the number of immigrants (VCF0879a), answer decreasedInterval95% CI 30.4 to 38.3n3,140Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES immigration level questionPeriod2016SourceANES Cumulative Data File points in 2016, and the change from 2020 to 2024 has an interval that includes zero. The ANES fields a study only in election years, so these data cannot place the opening more closely than the span from 2008 to 2016.
The General Social Survey (GSS) asks its own question, whether the number of immigrants nowadays should be increased, left as it is or reduced, and has asked it since 2004. A level in one survey is not comparable with a level in the other, so no line in the figure joins the two. The GSS gap rose between 2012 and 2016 as well, and it was 4847.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the GSS question on the number of immigrants nowadays (letin1a), answer reduced a little or a lotInterval95% CI 42.5 to 52.5n2,301Weightsweight_use (wtssnrps from 2004)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the GSS question on the number of immigrantsPeriod2024SourceGeneral Social Survey points in 2024. Its interval lies above zero in every GSS survey from 2004 on, where the ANES interval does not until 2012. Both gaps are smaller before 2014 than from 2016 on, so the two surveys agree on the widening and differ in the level.
Figure 1
Republicans and Democrats grew apart on wanting fewer immigrants in both surveys
Republican minus Democratic share wanting the number of immigrants decreased (ANES) or reduced (GSS), party identifiers including leaners, 1992 to 2024; 95% intervals
Republican minus Democratic gap (points)
Show data
| Survey | Year | Earlier GSS form | Gap (points) | Lower | Upper | Respondents |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANES | 1992 | no | 3.3 | −1.2 | 7.9 | 1,898 |
| ANES | 1994 | no | 1.9 | −3.3 | 7.1 | 1,545 |
| ANES | 1996 | no | 4.9 | −1.0 | 10.8 | 1,367 |
| ANES | 1998 | no | 1.0 | −5.5 | 7.5 | 1,094 |
| ANES | 2000 | no | 8.0 | 2.4 | 13.6 | 1,515 |
| ANES | 2004 | no | 4.2 | −2.8 | 11.3 | 933 |
| ANES | 2008 | no | 5.6 | −0.3 | 11.5 | 1,799 |
| ANES | 2012 | no | 15.1 | 11.2 | 18.9 | 4,664 |
| ANES | 2016 | no | 34.3 | 30.4 | 38.3 | 3,140 |
| ANES | 2020 | no | 30.6 | 27.7 | 33.4 | 6,486 |
| ANES | 2024 | no | 28.3 | 24.3 | 32.4 | 4,560 |
| ANES in person | 2008 | no | 5.6 | −0.3 | 11.5 | 1,799 |
| ANES in person | 2012 | no | 9.8 | 3.1 | 16.5 | 1,632 |
| ANES in person | 2016 | no | 31.2 | 23.8 | 38.6 | 930 |
| ANES in person | 2020 | no | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| ANES in person | 2024 | no | 20.3 | 11.5 | 29.1 | 849 |
| GSS | 2004 | no | 10.3 | 1.8 | 18.8 | 735 |
| GSS | 2006 | no | 16.3 | 10.4 | 22.2 | 1,550 |
| GSS | 2008 | no | 7.7 | 0.4 | 14.9 | 1,074 |
| GSS | 2010 | no | 18.6 | 11.4 | 25.8 | 1,119 |
| GSS | 2012 | no | 12.8 | 4.8 | 20.7 | 994 |
| GSS | 2014 | no | 21.9 | 15.5 | 28.4 | 1,261 |
| GSS | 2016 | no | 34.4 | 28.5 | 40.2 | 1,479 |
| GSS | 2018 | no | 32.3 | 25.4 | 39.2 | 1,175 |
| GSS | 2021 | no | 39.7 | 34.9 | 44.4 | 2,038 |
| GSS | 2022 | no | 41.6 | 35.9 | 47.2 | 2,511 |
| GSS | 2024 | no | 47.5 | 42.5 | 52.5 | 2,301 |
| GSS earlier forms | 1994 | yes | 6.5 | 0.3 | 12.6 | 1,174 |
| GSS earlier forms | 1996 | yes | 6.5 | −0.3 | 13.4 | 958 |
| GSS earlier forms | 2000 | yes | 3.3 | −3.5 | 10.1 | 1,027 |
Both colored lines are lower before 2014 than from 2016 on. The solid line is the ANES gap on its question from 1992 to 2024, and the dashed colored line is the GSS gap on its own question from 2004 to 2024. A value above zero means Republicans were more likely to want fewer immigrants. The grey dashed line is the ANES gap among in-person respondents only, the like-for-like series from 2008, and the open grey points are earlier forms of the GSS question. The shaded band marks the ANES change of interview mode between 2016 and 2020, and the band around each colored line is its 95% interval. Values in Table 2.
How the two surveys asked
The ANES is a national survey fielded in election years, and 33,00032,751 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents with a usable answer (increased, same or decreased)Weightsnone (count)PopulationANES respondents who answered the question on the number of immigrantsPeriod1992-2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File of its respondents answered the question on the number of immigrants across the studies from 1992 to 2024. The GSS asked its question in surveys from 2004 to 2024, with none in 2020, and 21,00021,070 respondentsEstimandcount of respondents with a usable answer to letin1aWeightsnone (count)PopulationGSS respondents who answered the question on the number of immigrants nowadaysPeriod2004-2024SourceGeneral Social Survey respondents answered it. Every share is weightedSurvey weightsNumbers that scale each respondent so the sample matches the population on known traits such as age, race, education and region. A weighted average counts a respondent with a large weight for more than one with a small weight. so that the sample matches the population on known traits, and answers of don't know are left out. The qualification that matters is interview modeSurvey modeHow respondents were interviewed: in person, by phone, on paper or online. Mode can change answers, so a change in mode can look like a change in opinion.. The ANES interviewed mainly in person through 2008, added a web sample beside the in-person sample in 2012, 2016 and 2024, and had no in-person interviews in 2020. Among Republicans, web respondents gave the restrictive answer more often than in-person respondents in each year with both modes. In 2024 the gap among all respondents lies between an in-person gap of 2020.3 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the ANES question on the number of immigrants (VCF0879a), answer decreasedInterval95% CI 11.5 to 29.1n849Weightsweight_ftf (in-person mode weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES immigration level questionPeriod2024, in-person interviewsSourceANES Cumulative Data File points and a web gap of 3534.5 percentage pointsEstimandweighted Republican share minus weighted Democratic share; the ANES question on the number of immigrants (VCF0879a), answer decreasedInterval95% CI 28.3 to 40.6n1,583Weightsweight_web (web mode weight)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES immigration level questionPeriod2024, web interviewsSourceANES Cumulative Data File. The opening does not depend on mode. Between 2012 and 2016 the gap rose among in-person respondents and among web respondents alike. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.
The parties split over illegal immigrants more than over Hispanics
The question on numbers asks what the country should do, and a preference about admissions can move apart from feelings toward particular groups. The ANES measures that feeling by having respondents rate groups on a feeling thermometerFeeling thermometerA 0 to 100 rating of a group or person, where 0 is the coldest feeling and 100 the warmest. The American National Election Studies ask respondents to rate parties, candidates and social groups this way. that runs from cold to warm. It has asked about illegal immigrants and about Hispanics since 1988. Figure 2 shows both ratings by party. Warmth runs opposite to a restrictive answer, so this gap is signed the other way, Democrats minus Republicans. For illegal immigrants it was 87.7 points on the 0 to 100 feeling thermometerEstimandweighted mean rating of illegal immigrants among Democrats minus the mean among Republicans (warmth gap)Interval95% CI 5.3 to 10.1n1,473Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who rated the groupPeriod1988SourceANES Cumulative Data File points in 1988 and 3029.9 points on the 0 to 100 feeling thermometerEstimandweighted mean rating of illegal immigrants among Democrats minus the mean among Republicans (warmth gap)Interval95% CI 27.8 to 32.0n4,370Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who rated the groupPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File in 2024. Democrats warmed toward the group over those years, and Republicans rated it lower in 2024 than in 1988; among in-person respondents the Republican change has an interval that includes zero.The cumulative ANES file labels the item illegal aliens, and the 2020 and 2024 studies label it illegal immigrants, so a change of label could have moved ratings between studies.
Ratings of Hispanics changed less by party. Both parties rated Hispanics warmer in 2024 than in 1988. The warmth gap toward Hispanics was above zero in both years, and it widened by 1.9 (95% CI −0.9 to 4.7)1.9 points on the 0 to 100 feeling thermometerEstimandlater minus earlier warmth gap (Democratic mean rating of Hispanics minus Republican mean rating), two separate samplesInterval95% CI −0.9 to 4.7n5,809Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who rated the groupPeriod1988 to 2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, an interval that includes zero. The party divide shows up in answers about how many immigrants to admit and in feeling toward illegal immigrants, and the widening in feeling toward Hispanics cannot be told from zero.
Figure 2
The party gap in warmth toward illegal immigrants widened more than the gap toward Hispanics
Mean ANES feeling thermometer rating from 0 (cold) to 100 (warm), by party identification; leaners are in the parties and independents lean toward neither; all respondents dashed; 95% intervals
Show data
| Group rated | Party | Year | Mean rating | Lower | Upper | Respondents |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hispanics | All respondents | 1988 | 57.0 | 56.0 | 58.0 | 1,629 |
| Hispanics | All respondents | 1992 | 61.0 | 60.2 | 61.9 | 2,127 |
| Hispanics | All respondents | 1994 | 61.1 | 59.9 | 62.3 | 1,674 |
| Hispanics | All respondents | 1996 | 63.8 | 62.7 | 64.8 | 1,465 |
| Hispanics | All respondents | 2000 | 63.8 | 62.6 | 65.1 | 1,438 |
| Hispanics | All respondents | 2002 | 63.0 | 61.6 | 64.4 | 1,255 |
| Hispanics | All respondents | 2004 | 67.7 | 66.4 | 69.0 | 1,037 |
| Hispanics | All respondents | 2008 | 65.2 | 64.1 | 66.4 | 2,050 |
| Hispanics | All respondents | 2012 | 63.5 | 62.7 | 64.3 | 5,449 |
| Hispanics | All respondents | 2016 | 68.1 | 67.2 | 68.9 | 3,572 |
| Hispanics | All respondents | 2020 | 71.8 | 71.2 | 72.5 | 7,109 |
| Hispanics | All respondents | 2024 | 69.9 | 68.9 | 70.8 | 4,684 |
| Hispanics | Democrats | 1988 | 59.7 | 58.2 | 61.2 | 763 |
| Hispanics | Democrats | 1992 | 63.1 | 62.0 | 64.3 | 1,041 |
| Hispanics | Democrats | 1994 | 63.1 | 61.3 | 64.9 | 783 |
| Hispanics | Democrats | 1996 | 65.5 | 64.0 | 67.0 | 765 |
| Hispanics | Democrats | 2000 | 65.1 | 63.3 | 66.9 | 701 |
| Hispanics | Democrats | 2002 | 63.8 | 61.9 | 65.8 | 582 |
| Hispanics | Democrats | 2004 | 68.0 | 66.0 | 70.0 | 489 |
| Hispanics | Democrats | 2008 | 67.7 | 66.1 | 69.2 | 1,193 |
| Hispanics | Democrats | 2012 | 67.1 | 65.9 | 68.2 | 2,859 |
| Hispanics | Democrats | 2016 | 72.3 | 71.1 | 73.6 | 1,638 |
| Hispanics | Democrats | 2020 | 75.6 | 74.6 | 76.5 | 3,326 |
| Hispanics | Democrats | 2024 | 73.9 | 72.6 | 75.2 | 2,312 |
| Hispanics | Independents | 1988 | 55.8 | 52.6 | 59.0 | 173 |
| Hispanics | Independents | 1992 | 59.4 | 57.1 | 61.7 | 256 |
| Hispanics | Independents | 1994 | 56.2 | 52.5 | 59.9 | 171 |
| Hispanics | Independents | 2000 | 61.3 | 57.5 | 65.1 | 166 |
| Hispanics | Independents | 2008 | 61.2 | 57.4 | 65.0 | 228 |
| Hispanics | Independents | 2012 | 59.3 | 57.1 | 61.6 | 723 |
| Hispanics | Independents | 2016 | 63.8 | 61.4 | 66.2 | 460 |
| Hispanics | Independents | 2020 | 68.5 | 66.4 | 70.6 | 818 |
| Hispanics | Independents | 2024 | 61.7 | 57.7 | 65.6 | 303 |
| Hispanics | Republicans | 1988 | 54.4 | 52.9 | 55.8 | 684 |
| Hispanics | Republicans | 1992 | 59.0 | 57.7 | 60.3 | 820 |
| Hispanics | Republicans | 1994 | 60.2 | 58.5 | 61.9 | 710 |
| Hispanics | Republicans | 1996 | 61.7 | 60.0 | 63.3 | 570 |
| Hispanics | Republicans | 2000 | 62.8 | 61.0 | 64.6 | 560 |
| Hispanics | Republicans | 2002 | 63.8 | 61.8 | 65.8 | 570 |
| Hispanics | Republicans | 2004 | 68.8 | 67.0 | 70.6 | 436 |
| Hispanics | Republicans | 2008 | 63.3 | 61.4 | 65.1 | 596 |
| Hispanics | Republicans | 2012 | 60.7 | 59.4 | 62.0 | 1,847 |
| Hispanics | Republicans | 2016 | 64.7 | 63.4 | 66.0 | 1,463 |
| Hispanics | Republicans | 2020 | 68.7 | 67.7 | 69.6 | 2,944 |
| Hispanics | Republicans | 2024 | 66.6 | 65.2 | 67.9 | 2,050 |
| Illegal immigrants | All respondents | 1988 | 35.7 | 34.5 | 36.9 | 1,658 |
| Illegal immigrants | All respondents | 1992 | 36.1 | 35.2 | 37.1 | 2,165 |
| Illegal immigrants | All respondents | 1994 | 32.3 | 30.9 | 33.7 | 1,746 |
| Illegal immigrants | All respondents | 2004 | 40.5 | 38.9 | 42.1 | 1,039 |
| Illegal immigrants | All respondents | 2008 | 39.3 | 37.9 | 40.7 | 2,048 |
| Illegal immigrants | All respondents | 2012 | 38.0 | 37.1 | 38.9 | 5,458 |
| Illegal immigrants | All respondents | 2016 | 41.9 | 40.8 | 43.0 | 3,580 |
| Illegal immigrants | All respondents | 2020 | 48.2 | 47.3 | 49.0 | 7,092 |
| Illegal immigrants | All respondents | 2024 | 42.6 | 41.4 | 43.8 | 4,686 |
| Illegal immigrants | Democrats | 1988 | 39.7 | 37.9 | 41.5 | 776 |
| Illegal immigrants | Democrats | 1992 | 38.3 | 36.9 | 39.7 | 1,066 |
| Illegal immigrants | Democrats | 1994 | 37.5 | 35.4 | 39.5 | 816 |
| Illegal immigrants | Democrats | 2004 | 45.5 | 43.2 | 47.8 | 491 |
| Illegal immigrants | Democrats | 2008 | 45.5 | 43.7 | 47.4 | 1,191 |
| Illegal immigrants | Democrats | 2012 | 46.1 | 44.8 | 47.4 | 2,864 |
| Illegal immigrants | Democrats | 2016 | 52.4 | 50.9 | 53.9 | 1,641 |
| Illegal immigrants | Democrats | 2020 | 61.0 | 60.0 | 62.1 | 3,336 |
| Illegal immigrants | Democrats | 2024 | 56.8 | 55.4 | 58.2 | 2,303 |
| Illegal immigrants | Independents | 1988 | 32.3 | 28.4 | 36.1 | 176 |
| Illegal immigrants | Independents | 1992 | 37.5 | 34.6 | 40.5 | 260 |
| Illegal immigrants | Independents | 1994 | 30.5 | 26.2 | 34.8 | 182 |
| Illegal immigrants | Independents | 2008 | 38.1 | 33.8 | 42.5 | 229 |
| Illegal immigrants | Independents | 2012 | 37.2 | 34.5 | 39.8 | 725 |
| Illegal immigrants | Independents | 2016 | 41.5 | 38.6 | 44.4 | 461 |
| Illegal immigrants | Independents | 2020 | 48.7 | 46.2 | 51.1 | 820 |
| Illegal immigrants | Independents | 2024 | 43.4 | 39.1 | 47.8 | 297 |
| Illegal immigrants | Republicans | 1988 | 32.0 | 30.4 | 33.6 | 697 |
| Illegal immigrants | Republicans | 1992 | 32.9 | 31.4 | 34.5 | 830 |
| Illegal immigrants | Republicans | 1994 | 27.2 | 25.2 | 29.1 | 736 |
| Illegal immigrants | Republicans | 2004 | 35.0 | 32.6 | 37.4 | 435 |
| Illegal immigrants | Republicans | 2008 | 31.4 | 29.1 | 33.6 | 596 |
| Illegal immigrants | Republicans | 2012 | 28.8 | 27.4 | 30.1 | 1,849 |
| Illegal immigrants | Republicans | 2016 | 29.6 | 28.1 | 31.1 | 1,467 |
| Illegal immigrants | Republicans | 2020 | 33.7 | 32.5 | 34.9 | 2,914 |
| Illegal immigrants | Republicans | 2024 | 26.9 | 25.3 | 28.4 | 2,067 |
In the illegal immigrants view the Democratic line climbs while the Republican line is not steady and ends lower than it began; the two end at 5756.8 points on the 0 to 100 feeling thermometerEstimandweighted mean feeling thermometer rating of illegal immigrants (illegal aliens in the cumulative file label)Interval95% CI 55.4 to 58.2n2,303Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who rated the groupPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File and 2726.9 points on the 0 to 100 feeling thermometerEstimandweighted mean feeling thermometer rating of illegal immigrants (illegal aliens in the cumulative file label)Interval95% CI 25.3 to 28.4n2,067Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who rated the groupPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File on the thermometer in 2024. Switch to the Hispanics view and both lines rise, and the gap between them widens by an amount that cannot be told from zero. The grey lines are independents and all respondents, and the shaded band marks the ANES mode change between 2016 and 2020. Values in Table 5.
The Democratic share fell in every view
Figure 3 follows the two shares behind the gap in three views, and the Democratic line falls in every one of them. The Republican path depends on the survey and the interview mode. Among all ANES respondents, who include web interviews from 2012, the share answering decreased fell among Democrats from 46.8%46.8% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES question on the number of immigrants (VCF0879a), answer decreasedInterval95% CI 43.8% to 49.8%n1,080Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES immigration level questionPeriod1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File in 1992 to 29.2%29.2% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES question on the number of immigrants (VCF0879a), answer decreasedInterval95% CI 26.6% to 31.9%n2,390Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES immigration level questionPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File in 2024 and rose among Republicans from 50.1%50.1% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES question on the number of immigrants (VCF0879a), answer decreasedInterval95% CI 46.7% to 53.5%n818Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES immigration level questionPeriod1992SourceANES Cumulative Data File to 57.6%57.6% percent of respondents who answered the itemEstimandweighted share; the ANES question on the number of immigrants (VCF0879a), answer decreasedInterval95% CI 54.6% to 60.6%n2,170Weightsweight (VCF0009z)PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES immigration level questionPeriod2024SourceANES Cumulative Data File. Among in-person respondents, the like-for-like series, the Democratic share changed by −19−19.3 percentage pointsEstimandlater minus earlier weighted share, in-person respondents only; the ANES question on the number of immigrants (VCF0879a), answer decreased (two separate samples)Interval95% CI −25.2 to −13.4n1,678Weightsweight before 2008 (in person by design) and weight_ftf from 2008PopulationDemocratic identifiers (leaners included) interviewed in person who answered the ANES immigration level questionPeriod2008 to 2016SourceANES Cumulative Data File points between 2008 and 2016 while the Republican share changed by 6.3 (95% CI −1.0 to 13.7)6.3 percentage pointsEstimandlater minus earlier weighted share, in-person respondents only; the ANES question on the number of immigrants (VCF0879a), answer decreased (two separate samples)Interval95% CI −1.0 to 13.7n1,051Weightsweight before 2008 (in person by design) and weight_ftf from 2008PopulationRepublican identifiers (leaners included) interviewed in person who answered the ANES immigration level questionPeriod2008 to 2016SourceANES Cumulative Data File points, an interval that includes zero. The in-person Republican change from 1992 to 2024 has an interval that includes zero as well. The GSS agrees on the Democratic fall over those years and, within mode, on the lack of a reliable Republican change from 2008 to 2016. The two surveys disagree after 2016. The GSS Republican share rose to 2024 in both interview modes, and the in-person ANES Republican share was lower in 2024 than in 2016.
The divide is not confined to one question. On every immigration policy item the Cooperative Election Study asked between 2007 and 2021, and on every item in the 2024 ANES, Republicans were more restrictive than Democrats in every year the item was asked. These are descriptions of answers. The chapter does not test why the parties moved apart. Abrajano and Hajnal argue that fears about immigration moved white Americans from the Democratic to the Republican Party [1], and the chapter does not test that account either.
What these surveys cannot tell you
Each survey interviews a new sample, so a change in a party's share can come from people changing their view, changing their party or being replaced by new adults. These data cannot separate the three. Levels cannot be compared across surveys, because the ANES and the GSS ask different questions, and the chapter does not say which is closer to the truth. The mode checks are limited to the years with mode weights, so the 2020 ANES, which had no in-person interviews, cannot be split. No result here shows that immigration attitudes changed party loyalty or that party loyalty changed attitudes.
Go deeper
- The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
- Tables: every figure of the report as a table.
- Issues: the explorer for this part.
Same question at another grain:
- Immigration
- Planned, Immigration and local context (planned) Places
- Planned, National pride and grievance (planned) Countries
Data sources
- ANES Cumulative Data FileCumulative Data File 1948-2024, immigration level item (VCF0879, VCF0879a) in 11 studies from 1992 to 2024 and thermometers (VCF0233, VCF0217); mode weights for 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024Years: 1948-2024 (33 study years; even years only after 2004; no 2006, 2010 or 2014 study) · Weights: weight (VCF0009z); weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode split · License: Free download after accepting the ANES terms of use; cite the release.
- ANES 2024 Time Series2024 Time Series, ten immigration items (V241386, V241387, V241390, V241393, V242227 to V242229, V242232, V242235, V242236)Years: 2024 (pre-election and post-election interviews) · Weights: V240107b (post-election); V240101b and V240102b for the mode views · License: Free download after accepting the ANES terms of use; cite the release.
- General Social SurveyRaw file 1994-2024: letin1a (2004-2024), the earlier forms letin and letin1, and the immigration module items immjobs, immcrime and immameco; interview mode from the raw fileYears: 1972-2024 (35 study years) · Weights: weight_use (wtssnrps from 2004) · License: See the provider's terms of use.
- Cooperative Election StudyCumulative CES, nine immigration policy items 2007-2021Years: 2006-2024 (every year; self-reported turnout is available in the 10 even years) · Weights: weight (single-wave weight) · License: See the provider's terms of use.
- NationscapeWeekly waves July 2019 to February 2021, four immigration policy itemsYears: 2019-07-18 to 2021-04-15 (85 weekly waves) · Weights: weight · License: Free after registration and acceptance of the Voter Study Group terms; also on Harvard Dataverse.
References
- Abrajano, Marisa; Hajnal, Zoltan L. (2015). White Backlash: Immigration, Race, and American Politics. Princeton University Press. doi:10.1515/9781400866489
How to cite
@misc{singh2026immigration,
author = {Singh, Vishal},
title = {Immigration},
year = {2026},
url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/immigration},
note = {In The Public Mind. Published 3 October 2026.}
}