Measures of hardship compared

Diesel exhaust in the air, housing built before 1960, adults without health insurance, and a neighborhood that the Area Deprivation Index ranks among the most deprived are each a kind of hardship. Across 2424 measuresEstimandcount of measuresWeightsnone (counts of units and votes)Populationtract measures of hardship in the chapterPeriod2020 presidential electionSourcePrecinct votes on census geographies such measures in census tractsCensus tractA Census Bureau neighborhood area, usually home to between 1,200 and 8,000 people. Tract boundaries were redrawn after the 2010 census and again after 2020., the median difference in the Democratic share of the 2020 two-party presidential vote between two tracts one standard deviationStandard deviationA measure of how far values typically fall from their average. A larger standard deviation means the values are more spread out. apart on a measure, whichever way the difference ran, was 4.74.7 points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measureEstimandmedian across measures of the absolute raw coefficientn80,873Weightsvotes cast in the tract (pres_tot)Populationtracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and controlPeriod2020 presidential electionSourcePrecinct votes on census geographies points before any adjustment. Once each tract is compared only with tracts in the same state that match it on race and ethnicity, college share and population density, the median is 2.22.2 points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measureEstimandmedian across measures of the absolute common-specification coefficientn80,873Weightsvotes cast in the tract (pres_tot)Populationtracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and controlPeriod2020 presidential electionSourcePrecinct votes on census geographies points. The adjusted figure describes what is left of a measure among tracts that already resemble each other on traits that go closely with the vote. It is a narrower comparison, and it is not an estimate of what hardship does to a vote.

Most coefficients shrink, and most end above zero

Every measure goes through the same comparison, with the same tracts, the same outcome, the same weights and the same scale. Each is signed so that a higher value means more hardship, and its coefficient is the difference in Democratic share, in points, between two tracts one standard deviation apart on it. A positive coefficient means a more Democratic vote where hardship is higher.

Before the controls, the measures disagree in sign. Environmental burdens such as diesel particulate matter and proximity to hazardous waste facilities go with a more Democratic vote. Deprivation and illness, the Area Deprivation Index, arthritis and depression among them, go with a more Republican one. With race and ethnicity, education, density and state held fixed, the coefficients move toward zero for 1717 measuresEstimandcount of measures whose adjusted coefficient is closer to zero than the raw coefficientWeightsvotes cast in the tract (pres_tot)Populationtracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and controlPeriod2020 presidential electionSourcePrecinct votes on census geographies of the measures and end above it for 1616 measuresEstimandcount of measures whose adjusted 95% interval lies above zeroWeightsvotes cast in the tract (pres_tot)Populationtracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and controlPeriod2020 presidential electionSourcePrecinct votes on census geographies. Among alike tracts in one state, the tract with more hardship voted more Democratic on those measures. The largest adjusted coefficient belongs to lack of health insurance, a PLACES health estimate, and the two that end below zero are ozone and fine particles, both EJScreen estimates of air pollution.

The chapter sorts the measures by what the controls do to them. Among the measures that go with the vote before any controls, 33 measuresEstimandcount of measures that keep their sign and at least half of the raw coefficientWeightsvotes cast in the tract (pres_tot)Populationtracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and controlPeriod2020 presidential electionSourcePrecinct votes on census geographies keep their sign and at least 50%50% percent of the raw coefficientEstimandshare of the raw coefficient that a measure must keep to count as keeping its associationWeightsnone (rule)Populationmeasures with a raw interval that excludes zeroPeriod2020 presidential electionSourcePrecinct votes on census geographies of the raw coefficient. They are low household income rank in adulthood, housing built before 1960 and lack of health insurance, whose adjusted coefficient is larger than its raw one. Another 99 measuresEstimandcount of measures that keep less than half of the raw coefficient or whose adjusted interval includes zeroWeightsvotes cast in the tract (pres_tot)Populationtracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and controlPeriod2020 presidential electionSourcePrecinct votes on census geographies lose more than that share or end with an interval that includes zero: 66 indicatorsEstimandcount of environmental indicators that keep less than half of the raw coefficient or whose adjusted interval includes zeroWeightsnone (count)PopulationEJScreen indicators in the chapterPeriod2020 presidential electionSourceEJScreen environmental indicators, diesel among them, together with incarceration, obesity and arthritis. A further 88 measuresEstimandcount of measures whose adjusted interval lies on the other side of zero from the raw coefficientWeightsvotes cast in the tract (pres_tot)Populationtracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and controlPeriod2020 presidential electionSourcePrecinct votes on census geographies reverse sign, the Area Deprivation Index, depression, diabetes, current smoking and ozone among them. The rule that draws these lines was set after a first run of the estimates, not before, and two of the measures sit close to its line.

Figure 1

Raw associations with the Democratic vote split in sign across 24 hardship measures, and adjusted ones are smaller and mostly positive

Democratic share of the 2020 two-party presidential vote, points per standard deviation of each measure, tracts, raw and with race and ethnicity, education, density and state held fixed

By data sourceBy what the controls do

• No controls
• Common specification

Show data

Data for Raw associations with the Democratic vote split in sign across 24 hardship measures, and adjusted ones are smaller and mostly positive

adj_hi	adj_lo	adjusted	group	label	n	pattern	raw	raw_hi	raw_lo	view
5.22	2.58	3.90	Deprivation: Area Deprivation Index	Area Deprivation Index rank	80,873	Reverses sign	−5.86	−3.51	−8.22	source
4.34	2.88	3.61	Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	Low household income rank in adulthood	80,873	Keeps 50 percent or more of the raw coefficient	3.04	4.81	1.27	source
2.70	1.26	1.98	Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	Low individual income rank in adulthood	80,873	Reverses sign	−2.37	−0.695	−4.04	source
1.28	0.756	1.02	Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	Incarceration	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	2.46	4.12	0.798	source
2.59	1.13	1.86	Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	Teen birth among women	80,873	Raw interval includes zero	0.429	2.29	−1.43	source
2.93	−0.774	1.08	Environment: EJScreen	Diesel particulate matter	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	11.63	14.63	8.63	source
3.55	1.17	2.36	Environment: EJScreen	Traffic proximity	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	11.86	15.60	8.12	source
3.14	0.801	1.97	Environment: EJScreen	Nitrogen dioxide	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	11.40	12.69	10.12	source
−0.087	−3.84	−1.96	Environment: EJScreen	Fine particles (PM2.5)	80,873	Reverses sign	4.63	6.19	3.07	source
−2.09	−4.28	−3.18	Environment: EJScreen	Ozone	80,873	Reverses sign	3.83	6.30	1.36	source
0.635	−0.145	0.245	Environment: EJScreen	Toxic releases to air (RSEI)	80,873	Raw interval includes zero	0.532	1.75	−0.691	source
4.33	2.86	3.60	Environment: EJScreen	Housing built before 1960	80,873	Keeps 50 percent or more of the raw coefficient	6.67	7.81	5.54	source
1.13	−0.005	0.564	Environment: EJScreen	Proximity to Superfund sites	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	6.88	8.01	5.75	source
1.31	−0.327	0.492	Environment: EJScreen	Proximity to risk management facilities	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	4.95	6.71	3.20	source
3.86	2.20	3.03	Environment: EJScreen	Proximity to hazardous waste facilities	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	13.14	14.40	11.88	source
5.27	3.71	4.49	Health: CDC PLACES	Fair or poor health	80,873	Raw interval includes zero	0.221	1.60	−1.16	source
3.57	2.59	3.08	Health: CDC PLACES	Poor mental health	80,873	Raw interval includes zero	−0.113	1.29	−1.52	source
4.14	1.98	3.06	Health: CDC PLACES	Depression	80,873	Reverses sign	−6.33	−4.16	−8.49	source
2.68	1.22	1.95	Health: CDC PLACES	Diabetes	80,873	Reverses sign	−1.67	−0.121	−3.22	source
1.58	−1.50	0.036	Health: CDC PLACES	Obesity	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	−4.80	−2.59	−7.02	source
4.12	2.56	3.34	Health: CDC PLACES	Current smoking	80,873	Reverses sign	−4.70	−2.81	−6.58	source
4.13	2.44	3.29	Health: CDC PLACES	No leisure-time physical activity	80,873	Reverses sign	−1.88	−0.282	−3.49	source
8.97	6.21	7.59	Health: CDC PLACES	No health insurance	80,873	Keeps 50 percent or more of the raw coefficient	1.77	3.13	0.411	source
0.385	−0.636	−0.125	Health: CDC PLACES	Arthritis	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	−10.37	−8.95	−11.80	source
4.33	2.86	3.60	Keeps 50 percent or more of the raw coefficient	Housing built before 1960	80,873	Keeps 50 percent or more of the raw coefficient	6.67	7.81	5.54	pattern
4.34	2.88	3.61	Keeps 50 percent or more of the raw coefficient	Low household income rank in adulthood	80,873	Keeps 50 percent or more of the raw coefficient	3.04	4.81	1.27	pattern
8.97	6.21	7.59	Keeps 50 percent or more of the raw coefficient	No health insurance	80,873	Keeps 50 percent or more of the raw coefficient	1.77	3.13	0.411	pattern
3.86	2.20	3.03	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	Proximity to hazardous waste facilities	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	13.14	14.40	11.88	pattern
3.55	1.17	2.36	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	Traffic proximity	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	11.86	15.60	8.12	pattern
2.93	−0.774	1.08	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	Diesel particulate matter	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	11.63	14.63	8.63	pattern
3.14	0.801	1.97	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	Nitrogen dioxide	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	11.40	12.69	10.12	pattern
1.13	−0.005	0.564	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	Proximity to Superfund sites	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	6.88	8.01	5.75	pattern
1.31	−0.327	0.492	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	Proximity to risk management facilities	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	4.95	6.71	3.20	pattern
1.28	0.756	1.02	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	Incarceration	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	2.46	4.12	0.798	pattern
1.58	−1.50	0.036	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	Obesity	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	−4.80	−2.59	−7.02	pattern
0.385	−0.636	−0.125	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	Arthritis	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	−10.37	−8.95	−11.80	pattern
−0.087	−3.84	−1.96	Reverses sign	Fine particles (PM2.5)	80,873	Reverses sign	4.63	6.19	3.07	pattern
−2.09	−4.28	−3.18	Reverses sign	Ozone	80,873	Reverses sign	3.83	6.30	1.36	pattern
2.68	1.22	1.95	Reverses sign	Diabetes	80,873	Reverses sign	−1.67	−0.121	−3.22	pattern
4.13	2.44	3.29	Reverses sign	No leisure-time physical activity	80,873	Reverses sign	−1.88	−0.282	−3.49	pattern
2.70	1.26	1.98	Reverses sign	Low individual income rank in adulthood	80,873	Reverses sign	−2.37	−0.695	−4.04	pattern
4.12	2.56	3.34	Reverses sign	Current smoking	80,873	Reverses sign	−4.70	−2.81	−6.58	pattern
5.22	2.58	3.90	Reverses sign	Area Deprivation Index rank	80,873	Reverses sign	−5.86	−3.51	−8.22	pattern
4.14	1.98	3.06	Reverses sign	Depression	80,873	Reverses sign	−6.33	−4.16	−8.49	pattern
0.635	−0.145	0.245	Raw interval includes zero	Toxic releases to air (RSEI)	80,873	Raw interval includes zero	0.532	1.75	−0.691	pattern
2.59	1.13	1.86	Raw interval includes zero	Teen birth among women	80,873	Raw interval includes zero	0.429	2.29	−1.43	pattern
5.27	3.71	4.49	Raw interval includes zero	Fair or poor health	80,873	Raw interval includes zero	0.221	1.60	−1.16	pattern
3.57	2.59	3.08	Raw interval includes zero	Poor mental health	80,873	Raw interval includes zero	−0.113	1.29	−1.52	pattern

Allocated votes, modeled measures, one election

The votes are not counts. Precinct returns from the 2020 presidential election were allocated to census tracts by a land-cover model [1], so each tract's Democratic share is an estimate, and each tract counts in proportion to its estimated votes. The common sample is the 80,87380,873 tractsEstimandcount of tracts in the common sampleWeightsnone (counts of units and votes)Populationtracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and controlPeriod2020 presidential electionSourcePrecinct votes on census geographies tracts with more than a floor of estimated votes and a value for every measure and control. Connecticut's tracts do not join the atlas, and the District of Columbia drops out for want of race shares. The PLACES health values are the output of a model that the CDC fits to survey answers and applies to each tract's population by age, sex and race and ethnicity, within its county [2]. The environmental values come from EJScreen, the Environmental Protection Agency's screening tool: the proximity indicators are national percentile values, and the air pollutants, ozone among them, are model estimates. The Opportunity Atlas values describe children born between 1978 and 1983 who grew up in the tract, not its current residents [3]. The measures are dated 2019 to 2024 and the vote is from November 2020. The regressions are descriptive, and the intervals, from standard errors clustered by stateClustered standard errorsStandard errors that allow answers within the same group, such as the same county or the same week, to be related. They are wider than ordinary errors when members of a group resemble each other., leave out the error in the vote allocation and in the modeled measures. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.

The controls overlap with the measures they adjust

Figure 2 adds the controls one block at a time, and the two blocks that move the coefficients most are race and ethnicity and education. The Area Deprivation Index shows why that matters. The index is built from income, education, employment and housing measures [4], so holding the college share fixed removes part of what it measures. Its coefficient is −5.9 (95% CI −8.2 to −3.5)−5.9 points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measureEstimandraw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: area deprivation index rankInterval95% CI −8.2 to −3.5n80,873Weightsvotes cast in the tract (pres_tot)Populationtracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and controlPeriod2020 presidential electionSourceArea Deprivation Index before controls and 3.9 (95% CI 2.6 to 5.2)3.9 points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measureEstimandcommon-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: area deprivation index rankInterval95% CI 2.6 to 5.2n80,873Weightsvotes cast in the tract (pres_tot)Populationtracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and controlPeriod2020 presidential electionSourceArea Deprivation Index in the common specification: more deprived tracts voted less Democratic across the country, and more Democratic among alike tracts within a state. Race and ethnicity, the college share and density together explain 72%72% percent of within-state varianceEstimandshare of the vote-weighted within-state variance of the Democratic share explained by race and ethnicity, college share and log densityWeightsvotes cast in the tract (pres_tot)Populationtracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and controlPeriod2020 presidential electionSourcePrecinct votes on census geographies of the variation in the vote within states. An adjusted comparison is therefore among tracts that resemble each other on traits that predict the vote closely. The part of a measure left to compare can be small.

Figure 2

Race and education move the coefficients most, and density and state fixed effects move them less

Coefficient of the tract Democratic two-party share on each standardized measure, points per standard deviation, as controls are added from left to right

−12.00.0+12.0RepublicanDemocratic

Heatmap with one row for each of the tract measures and five columns for specifications from no controls to the common specification. Cells shift from large positive or negative values in the left columns toward values near zero or modestly positive in the right columns.

Measure	No controls	Race and ethnicity	Plus education	Plus density	Plus state effects
Area Deprivation Index rank	−5.9, interval −8.2 to −3.5, n = 80,873	−7.2, interval −8.9 to −5.6, n = 80,873	−0.7, interval −3.3 to +1.9, n = 80,873	0.0, interval −2.3 to +2.3, n = 80,873	+3.9, interval +2.6 to +5.2, n = 80,873
Low household income rank in adulthood	+3.0, interval +1.3 to +4.8, n = 80,873	−1.2, interval −2.9 to +0.4, n = 80,873	+2.4, interval +0.9 to +4.0, n = 80,873	+2.1, interval +0.6 to +3.5, n = 80,873	+3.6, interval +2.9 to +4.3, n = 80,873
Low individual income rank in adulthood	−2.4, interval −4.0 to −0.7, n = 80,873	−3.7, interval −5.1 to −2.3, n = 80,873	+0.3, interval −0.9 to +1.5, n = 80,873	+0.3, interval −0.9 to +1.5, n = 80,873	+2.0, interval +1.3 to +2.7, n = 80,873
Incarceration	+2.5, interval +0.8 to +4.1, n = 80,873	−0.6, interval −1.4 to +0.2, n = 80,873	+0.4, interval −0.3 to +1.0, n = 80,873	+0.2, interval −0.3 to +0.7, n = 80,873	+1.0, interval +0.8 to +1.3, n = 80,873
Teen birth among women	+0.4, interval −1.4 to +2.3, n = 80,873	−5.4, interval −7.0 to −3.8, n = 80,873	−1.2, interval −2.7 to +0.3, n = 80,873	−0.6, interval −2.0 to +0.7, n = 80,873	+1.9, interval +1.1 to +2.6, n = 80,873
Diesel particulate matter	+11.6, interval +8.6 to +14.6, n = 80,873	+7.8, interval +5.2 to +10.4, n = 80,873	+5.3, interval +2.7 to +7.8, n = 80,873	+2.5, interval +0.2 to +4.8, n = 80,873	+1.1, interval −0.8 to +2.9, n = 80,873
Traffic proximity	+11.9, interval +8.1 to +15.6, n = 80,873	+8.6, interval +5.9 to +11.3, n = 80,873	+6.5, interval +4.1 to +9.0, n = 80,873	+4.7, interval +2.8 to +6.6, n = 80,873	+2.4, interval +1.2 to +3.5, n = 80,873
Nitrogen dioxide	+11.4, interval +10.1 to +12.7, n = 80,873	+7.6, interval +6.4 to +8.9, n = 80,873	+5.3, interval +3.9 to +6.7, n = 80,873	+2.2, interval +0.1 to +4.3, n = 80,873	+2.0, interval +0.8 to +3.1, n = 80,873
Fine particles (PM2.5)	+4.6, interval +3.1 to +6.2, n = 80,873	+0.7, interval −1.1 to +2.5, n = 80,873	+0.4, interval −1.4 to +2.2, n = 80,873	−0.4, interval −2.2 to +1.4, n = 80,873	−2.0, interval −3.8 to −0.1, n = 80,873
Ozone	+3.8, interval +1.4 to +6.3, n = 80,873	+1.4, interval −1.8 to +4.6, n = 80,873	+0.5, interval −2.2 to +3.2, n = 80,873	−0.6, interval −2.7 to +1.5, n = 80,873	−3.2, interval −4.3 to −2.1, n = 80,873
Toxic releases to air (RSEI)	+0.5, interval −0.7 to +1.8, n = 80,873	−0.2, interval −1.2 to +0.8, n = 80,873	−0.2, interval −1.2 to +0.8, n = 80,873	−0.6, interval −1.4 to +0.2, n = 80,873	+0.2, interval −0.1 to +0.6, n = 80,873
Housing built before 1960	+6.7, interval +5.5 to +7.8, n = 80,873	+6.0, interval +5.0 to +7.0, n = 80,873	+6.3, interval +5.2 to +7.4, n = 80,873	+5.2, interval +4.1 to +6.3, n = 80,873	+3.6, interval +2.9 to +4.3, n = 80,873
Proximity to Superfund sites	+6.9, interval +5.7 to +8.0, n = 80,873	+4.5, interval +3.3 to +5.6, n = 80,873	+3.4, interval +2.2 to +4.5, n = 80,873	+2.1, interval +1.2 to +3.1, n = 80,873	+0.6, interval 0.0 to +1.1, n = 80,873
Proximity to risk management facilities	+5.0, interval +3.2 to +6.7, n = 80,873	+2.0, interval +0.6 to +3.4, n = 80,873	+1.8, interval +0.6 to +2.9, n = 80,873	+0.6, interval −0.4 to +1.7, n = 80,873	+0.5, interval −0.3 to +1.3, n = 80,873
Proximity to hazardous waste facilities	+13.1, interval +11.9 to +14.4, n = 80,873	+10.0, interval +8.9 to +11.1, n = 80,873	+7.7, interval +6.4 to +8.9, n = 80,873	+5.8, interval +4.6 to +7.1, n = 80,873	+3.0, interval +2.2 to +3.9, n = 80,873
Fair or poor health	+0.2, interval −1.2 to +1.6, n = 80,873	−7.1, interval −8.7 to −5.6, n = 80,873	+1.7, interval +0.2 to +3.2, n = 80,873	+2.3, interval +1.0 to +3.6, n = 80,873	+4.5, interval +3.7 to +5.3, n = 80,873
Poor mental health	−0.1, interval −1.5 to +1.3, n = 80,873	−4.3, interval −5.7 to −2.9, n = 80,873	+3.1, interval +1.5 to +4.7, n = 80,873	+1.6, interval +0.1 to +3.2, n = 80,873	+3.1, interval +2.6 to +3.6, n = 80,873
Depression	−6.3, interval −8.5 to −4.2, n = 80,873	−1.7, interval −3.8 to +0.4, n = 80,873	+2.2, interval −0.1 to +4.5, n = 80,873	+1.5, interval −0.6 to +3.6, n = 80,873	+3.1, interval +2.0 to +4.1, n = 80,873
Diabetes	−1.7, interval −3.2 to −0.1, n = 80,873	−8.1, interval −9.6 to −6.6, n = 80,873	−3.0, interval −4.2 to −1.8, n = 80,873	−1.1, interval −2.3 to +0.1, n = 80,873	+1.9, interval +1.2 to +2.7, n = 80,873
Obesity	−4.8, interval −7.0 to −2.6, n = 80,873	−9.4, interval −11.4 to −7.4, n = 80,873	−3.3, interval −6.0 to −0.6, n = 80,873	−1.9, interval −4.3 to +0.6, n = 80,873	0.0, interval −1.5 to +1.6, n = 80,873
Current smoking	−4.7, interval −6.6 to −2.8, n = 80,873	−7.4, interval −8.9 to −5.8, n = 80,873	+1.1, interval −0.6 to +2.7, n = 80,873	+1.3, interval 0.0 to +2.7, n = 80,873	+3.3, interval +2.6 to +4.1, n = 80,873
No leisure-time physical activity	−1.9, interval −3.5 to −0.3, n = 80,873	−8.4, interval −9.7 to −7.1, n = 80,873	−1.3, interval −3.2 to +0.6, n = 80,873	−0.8, interval −2.3 to +0.7, n = 80,873	+3.3, interval +2.4 to +4.1, n = 80,873
No health insurance	+1.8, interval +0.4 to +3.1, n = 80,873	−10.2, interval −12.8 to −7.7, n = 80,873	−4.9, interval −7.0 to −2.8, n = 80,873	−4.0, interval −5.5 to −2.4, n = 80,873	+7.6, interval +6.2 to +9.0, n = 80,873
Arthritis	−10.4, interval −11.8 to −8.9, n = 80,873	−7.8, interval −9.6 to −6.1, n = 80,873	−2.7, interval −3.9 to −1.5, n = 80,873	−0.8, interval −2.4 to +0.8, n = 80,873	−0.1, interval −0.6 to +0.4, n = 80,873

Show data

Data for Race and education move the coefficients most, and density and state fixed effects move them less

family	hi	lo	measure	n	specification	value
Deprivation: Area Deprivation Index	−3.51	−8.22	Area Deprivation Index rank	80,873	No controls	−5.86
Deprivation: Area Deprivation Index	−5.58	−8.87	Area Deprivation Index rank	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−7.22
Deprivation: Area Deprivation Index	1.91	−3.33	Area Deprivation Index rank	80,873	Plus education	−0.712
Deprivation: Area Deprivation Index	2.34	−2.27	Area Deprivation Index rank	80,873	Plus density	0.037
Deprivation: Area Deprivation Index	5.22	2.58	Area Deprivation Index rank	80,873	Plus state effects	3.90
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	4.81	1.27	Low household income rank in adulthood	80,873	No controls	3.04
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	0.415	−2.91	Low household income rank in adulthood	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−1.25
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	3.98	0.906	Low household income rank in adulthood	80,873	Plus education	2.45
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	3.52	0.596	Low household income rank in adulthood	80,873	Plus density	2.06
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	4.34	2.88	Low household income rank in adulthood	80,873	Plus state effects	3.61
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	−0.695	−4.04	Low individual income rank in adulthood	80,873	No controls	−2.37
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	−2.29	−5.08	Low individual income rank in adulthood	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−3.68
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	1.51	−0.940	Low individual income rank in adulthood	80,873	Plus education	0.286
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	1.53	−0.850	Low individual income rank in adulthood	80,873	Plus density	0.340
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	2.70	1.26	Low individual income rank in adulthood	80,873	Plus state effects	1.98
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	4.12	0.798	Incarceration	80,873	No controls	2.46
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	0.212	−1.43	Incarceration	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−0.610
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	1.03	−0.316	Incarceration	80,873	Plus education	0.355
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	0.744	−0.326	Incarceration	80,873	Plus density	0.209
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	1.28	0.756	Incarceration	80,873	Plus state effects	1.02
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	2.29	−1.43	Teen birth among women	80,873	No controls	0.429
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	−3.78	−6.98	Teen birth among women	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−5.38
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	0.326	−2.69	Teen birth among women	80,873	Plus education	−1.18
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	0.688	−1.96	Teen birth among women	80,873	Plus density	−0.636
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	2.59	1.13	Teen birth among women	80,873	Plus state effects	1.86
Environment: EJScreen	14.63	8.63	Diesel particulate matter	80,873	No controls	11.63
Environment: EJScreen	10.40	5.16	Diesel particulate matter	80,873	Race and ethnicity	7.78
Environment: EJScreen	7.82	2.73	Diesel particulate matter	80,873	Plus education	5.27
Environment: EJScreen	4.79	0.207	Diesel particulate matter	80,873	Plus density	2.50
Environment: EJScreen	2.93	−0.774	Diesel particulate matter	80,873	Plus state effects	1.08
Environment: EJScreen	15.60	8.12	Traffic proximity	80,873	No controls	11.86
Environment: EJScreen	11.35	5.93	Traffic proximity	80,873	Race and ethnicity	8.64
Environment: EJScreen	8.99	4.06	Traffic proximity	80,873	Plus education	6.52
Environment: EJScreen	6.63	2.79	Traffic proximity	80,873	Plus density	4.71
Environment: EJScreen	3.55	1.17	Traffic proximity	80,873	Plus state effects	2.36
Environment: EJScreen	12.69	10.12	Nitrogen dioxide	80,873	No controls	11.40
Environment: EJScreen	8.87	6.43	Nitrogen dioxide	80,873	Race and ethnicity	7.65
Environment: EJScreen	6.67	3.94	Nitrogen dioxide	80,873	Plus education	5.31
Environment: EJScreen	4.34	0.115	Nitrogen dioxide	80,873	Plus density	2.23
Environment: EJScreen	3.14	0.801	Nitrogen dioxide	80,873	Plus state effects	1.97
Environment: EJScreen	6.19	3.07	Fine particles (PM2.5)	80,873	No controls	4.63
Environment: EJScreen	2.47	−1.15	Fine particles (PM2.5)	80,873	Race and ethnicity	0.662
Environment: EJScreen	2.18	−1.45	Fine particles (PM2.5)	80,873	Plus education	0.366
Environment: EJScreen	1.36	−2.20	Fine particles (PM2.5)	80,873	Plus density	−0.419
Environment: EJScreen	−0.087	−3.84	Fine particles (PM2.5)	80,873	Plus state effects	−1.96
Environment: EJScreen	6.30	1.36	Ozone	80,873	No controls	3.83
Environment: EJScreen	4.61	−1.76	Ozone	80,873	Race and ethnicity	1.43
Environment: EJScreen	3.20	−2.19	Ozone	80,873	Plus education	0.502
Environment: EJScreen	1.52	−2.67	Ozone	80,873	Plus density	−0.577
Environment: EJScreen	−2.09	−4.28	Ozone	80,873	Plus state effects	−3.18
Environment: EJScreen	1.75	−0.691	Toxic releases to air (RSEI)	80,873	No controls	0.532
Environment: EJScreen	0.834	−1.21	Toxic releases to air (RSEI)	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−0.188
Environment: EJScreen	0.752	−1.22	Toxic releases to air (RSEI)	80,873	Plus education	−0.235
Environment: EJScreen	0.163	−1.38	Toxic releases to air (RSEI)	80,873	Plus density	−0.610
Environment: EJScreen	0.635	−0.145	Toxic releases to air (RSEI)	80,873	Plus state effects	0.245
Environment: EJScreen	7.81	5.54	Housing built before 1960	80,873	No controls	6.67
Environment: EJScreen	6.98	4.95	Housing built before 1960	80,873	Race and ethnicity	5.96
Environment: EJScreen	7.40	5.21	Housing built before 1960	80,873	Plus education	6.31
Environment: EJScreen	6.32	4.14	Housing built before 1960	80,873	Plus density	5.23
Environment: EJScreen	4.33	2.86	Housing built before 1960	80,873	Plus state effects	3.60
Environment: EJScreen	8.01	5.75	Proximity to Superfund sites	80,873	No controls	6.88
Environment: EJScreen	5.60	3.34	Proximity to Superfund sites	80,873	Race and ethnicity	4.47
Environment: EJScreen	4.51	2.22	Proximity to Superfund sites	80,873	Plus education	3.36
Environment: EJScreen	3.08	1.18	Proximity to Superfund sites	80,873	Plus density	2.13
Environment: EJScreen	1.13	−0.005	Proximity to Superfund sites	80,873	Plus state effects	0.564
Environment: EJScreen	6.71	3.20	Proximity to risk management facilities	80,873	No controls	4.95
Environment: EJScreen	3.38	0.564	Proximity to risk management facilities	80,873	Race and ethnicity	1.97
Environment: EJScreen	2.88	0.640	Proximity to risk management facilities	80,873	Plus education	1.76
Environment: EJScreen	1.66	−0.431	Proximity to risk management facilities	80,873	Plus density	0.617
Environment: EJScreen	1.31	−0.327	Proximity to risk management facilities	80,873	Plus state effects	0.492
Environment: EJScreen	14.40	11.88	Proximity to hazardous waste facilities	80,873	No controls	13.14
Environment: EJScreen	11.06	8.94	Proximity to hazardous waste facilities	80,873	Race and ethnicity	10.00
Environment: EJScreen	8.90	6.43	Proximity to hazardous waste facilities	80,873	Plus education	7.67
Environment: EJScreen	7.10	4.56	Proximity to hazardous waste facilities	80,873	Plus density	5.83
Environment: EJScreen	3.86	2.20	Proximity to hazardous waste facilities	80,873	Plus state effects	3.03
Health: CDC PLACES	1.60	−1.16	Fair or poor health	80,873	No controls	0.221
Health: CDC PLACES	−5.58	−8.68	Fair or poor health	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−7.13
Health: CDC PLACES	3.23	0.169	Fair or poor health	80,873	Plus education	1.70
Health: CDC PLACES	3.63	1.01	Fair or poor health	80,873	Plus density	2.32
Health: CDC PLACES	5.27	3.71	Fair or poor health	80,873	Plus state effects	4.49
Health: CDC PLACES	1.29	−1.52	Poor mental health	80,873	No controls	−0.113
Health: CDC PLACES	−2.86	−5.70	Poor mental health	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−4.28
Health: CDC PLACES	4.70	1.53	Poor mental health	80,873	Plus education	3.12
Health: CDC PLACES	3.15	0.123	Poor mental health	80,873	Plus density	1.64
Health: CDC PLACES	3.57	2.59	Poor mental health	80,873	Plus state effects	3.08
Health: CDC PLACES	−4.16	−8.49	Depression	80,873	No controls	−6.33
Health: CDC PLACES	0.363	−3.76	Depression	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−1.70
Health: CDC PLACES	4.53	−0.085	Depression	80,873	Plus education	2.22
Health: CDC PLACES	3.63	−0.600	Depression	80,873	Plus density	1.51
Health: CDC PLACES	4.14	1.98	Depression	80,873	Plus state effects	3.06
Health: CDC PLACES	−0.121	−3.22	Diabetes	80,873	No controls	−1.67
Health: CDC PLACES	−6.62	−9.63	Diabetes	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−8.13
Health: CDC PLACES	−1.84	−4.23	Diabetes	80,873	Plus education	−3.04
Health: CDC PLACES	0.097	−2.35	Diabetes	80,873	Plus density	−1.13
Health: CDC PLACES	2.68	1.22	Diabetes	80,873	Plus state effects	1.95
Health: CDC PLACES	−2.59	−7.02	Obesity	80,873	No controls	−4.80
Health: CDC PLACES	−7.44	−11.41	Obesity	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−9.43
Health: CDC PLACES	−0.618	−6.02	Obesity	80,873	Plus education	−3.32
Health: CDC PLACES	0.588	−4.34	Obesity	80,873	Plus density	−1.88
Health: CDC PLACES	1.58	−1.50	Obesity	80,873	Plus state effects	0.036
Health: CDC PLACES	−2.81	−6.58	Current smoking	80,873	No controls	−4.70
Health: CDC PLACES	−5.84	−8.87	Current smoking	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−7.35
Health: CDC PLACES	2.74	−0.592	Current smoking	80,873	Plus education	1.07
Health: CDC PLACES	2.74	−0.049	Current smoking	80,873	Plus density	1.35
Health: CDC PLACES	4.12	2.56	Current smoking	80,873	Plus state effects	3.34
Health: CDC PLACES	−0.282	−3.49	No leisure-time physical activity	80,873	No controls	−1.88
Health: CDC PLACES	−7.07	−9.72	No leisure-time physical activity	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−8.40
Health: CDC PLACES	0.640	−3.25	No leisure-time physical activity	80,873	Plus education	−1.30
Health: CDC PLACES	0.744	−2.34	No leisure-time physical activity	80,873	Plus density	−0.799
Health: CDC PLACES	4.13	2.44	No leisure-time physical activity	80,873	Plus state effects	3.29
Health: CDC PLACES	3.13	0.411	No health insurance	80,873	No controls	1.77
Health: CDC PLACES	−7.70	−12.78	No health insurance	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−10.24
Health: CDC PLACES	−2.84	−6.99	No health insurance	80,873	Plus education	−4.91
Health: CDC PLACES	−2.42	−5.51	No health insurance	80,873	Plus density	−3.96
Health: CDC PLACES	8.97	6.21	No health insurance	80,873	Plus state effects	7.59
Health: CDC PLACES	−8.95	−11.80	Arthritis	80,873	No controls	−10.37
Health: CDC PLACES	−6.06	−9.56	Arthritis	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−7.81
Health: CDC PLACES	−1.48	−3.91	Arthritis	80,873	Plus education	−2.69
Health: CDC PLACES	0.759	−2.40	Arthritis	80,873	Plus density	−0.818
Health: CDC PLACES	0.385	−0.636	Arthritis	80,873	Plus state effects	−0.125

The groups are less firm than the signs. Under the variations the chapter tries, from county clusters to every tract counting once, the sign of the adjusted coefficient agrees with the common specification for at least 2121 measuresEstimandsmallest count of measures whose adjusted sign matches the common specification across the variationsWeightsvotes cast in the tract (pres_tot)Populationtracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and controlPeriod2020 presidential electionSourcePrecinct votes on census geographies of the measures. The grouping changes most when every tract counts once and when ranks replace standard deviations. Two measures sit close to the line between keeping and losing. Incarceration keeps 41% (95% CI 21% to 98%)41% percent of the raw coefficientEstimandcommon-specification coefficient divided by the raw coefficient, incarcerationInterval95% CI 21% to 98%n80,873Weightsvotes cast in the tract (pres_tot)Populationtracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and controlPeriod2020 presidential electionSourceOpportunity Atlas of its raw coefficient, an interval that runs from well below the line to well above it, and housing built before 1960 sits close to the line on the keeping side.

What an adjusted coefficient compares, and what it does not

An adjusted coefficient compares tracts on the part of a measure that the controls do not explain. For some measures that part is small, and Figure 3 shows which. The PLACES model takes age, sex, race and ethnicity, education and county as its inputs. What remains of a health measure after the controls includes the age and sex structure of the tract and its county's own level, the other inputs of the model. The coefficients are not evidence that illness goes with the vote apart from who lives in a tract. Adjusting for predictors that a measure is built from, or shares most of its variance with, leaves a comparison on the part of the measure that the controls do not explain. The data cannot say what that remainder is. A pattern across tracts can also differ from the pattern among the people in them [5], a limit known as ecological inferenceEcological inferenceDrawing a conclusion about individuals from data on groups or places, such as counties. A pattern across counties can differ from the pattern among the people who live in them.. Companion 8.1d, Air pollution and the vote takes up several of the air exposures in detail.

Figure 3

Race, education and density share 40% to 80% of the within-state variance of the PLACES health measures and 2% of the variance of toxic releases

Share of the vote-weighted variance of each measure shared with the controls, in percent: within states for race and ethnicity shares, the college share and density; across all tracts for race, age and county effects in the second view

Race, education and density, within statesPLACES measures: race, age and county, all tracts

• Deprivation
• Childhood outcomes
• Environment
• Health
• Social capital
• Tax returns

Show data

Data for Race, education and density share 40% to 80% of the within-state variance of the PLACES health measures and 2% of the variance of toxic releases

family	label	value	view
Deprivation	Area Deprivation Index rank	59.24	common
Childhood outcomes	Low household income rank in adulthood	38.80	common
Childhood outcomes	Low individual income rank in adulthood	30.35	common
Childhood outcomes	Incarceration	13.36	common
Childhood outcomes	Teen birth among women	41.91	common
Environment	Diesel particulate matter	46.88	common
Environment	Traffic proximity	36.42	common
Environment	Nitrogen dioxide	58.75	common
Environment	Fine particles (PM2.5)	12.93	common
Environment	Ozone	9.23	common
Environment	Toxic releases to air (RSEI)	2.09	common
Environment	Housing built before 1960	9.11	common
Environment	Proximity to Superfund sites	10.08	common
Environment	Proximity to risk management facilities	15.12	common
Environment	Proximity to hazardous waste facilities	50.74	common
Health	Fair or poor health	70.55	common
Health	Poor mental health	59.95	common
Health	Depression	40.34	common
Health	Diabetes	56.23	common
Health	Obesity	71.20	common
Health	Current smoking	71.35	common
Health	No leisure-time physical activity	73.11	common
Health	No health insurance	80.22	common
Health	Arthritis	50.24	common
Social capital	Economic connectedness (ZIP code areas)	71.28	common
Social capital	Economic connectedness among group members (ZIP code areas)	68.35	common
Social capital	Friend clustering (ZIP code areas)	50.74	common
Social capital	Friend support ratio (ZIP code areas)	42.22	common
Social capital	Volunteering rate (ZIP code areas)	35.73	common
Social capital	Civic organizations per capita (ZIP code areas)	9.28	common
Tax returns	Earned income credit share of returns (ZIP code areas)	79.93	common
Tax returns	Unemployment compensation share of returns (ZIP code areas)	23.71	common
Tax returns	Low mean adjusted gross income per return (ZIP code areas)	53.73	common
Health	Fair or poor health	69.26	places
Health	Poor mental health	67.18	places
Health	Depression	87.07	places
Health	Diabetes	76.39	places
Health	Obesity	89.39	places
Health	Current smoking	66.46	places
Health	No leisure-time physical activity	72.75	places
Health	No health insurance	84.86	places
Health	Arthritis	85.16	places

What these tract estimates cannot tell you

The estimates describe tracts in one election and say nothing about how any resident voted. The vote in each tract is an allocation of precinct returns by a model, and several of the measures are modeled as well, so the estimates carry errors that the intervals leave out. The measures overlap and are not entered together, so the coefficients cannot say which of two related measures carries a pattern. Each interval is for one estimate, with no adjustment for the many estimates in the chapter. Social capital and tax returns exist only for ZIP code areas, where the chapter finds that the adjusted coefficient differs by surface. The data say nothing about turnout, other offices or the swing between elections.

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Go deeper

• The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
• Tables: every figure of the report as a table.
• Neighborhoods: the explorer for this part.

Data sources

• Precinct votes on census geographiesPrecinct votes allocated to 2020 census tracts and ZIP code tabulation areas (Fekrazad 2025), contiguous states and the District of Columbia, with the American Community Survey controls of the project atlases (2019 to 2023 five-year for tracts; ZIP code vintage not confirmed)Years: 2016 and 2020 (contiguous United States only) · Weights: votes cast in the unit (pres_tot, pres_tot_2020); units with 100 or fewer votes dropped · License: CC0 (data doi:10.7910/DVN/Z8TSH3), as stated in the project README.
• Area Deprivation IndexArea Deprivation Index national rank, Neighborhood Atlas version 4.0.1 (2023); tract values are unweighted means of block-group ranks and ZIP code values are area aggregations; license not confirmedYears: Vintage as distributed with the tract and ZCTA atlas files. · Weights: none (area values) · License: The Neighborhood Atlas may restrict commercial use and redistribution; read its terms before publishing derived tract values.
• Opportunity AtlasOpportunity Atlas tract estimates for children born 1978 to 1983 with low-income parents, area-interpolated to 2020 tracts (household and individual income rank, incarceration, teen birth)Years: Birth cohorts and outcome years as defined by Chetty and others (2018). · Weights: none (area values) · License: See the provider's terms of use.
• EJScreenEJScreen 2024 tract values (version 2.32 in the atlas build code), from a community mirror of the archived toolYears: Version as distributed with the tract atlas file. · Weights: none (area values) · License: US government data. The EPA removed EJScreen from its website in February 2025, so the archived copy is the source to cite.
• CDC PLACESPLACES crude prevalence of nine adult health measures, model-based; 2024 release for tracts and 2025 release for ZIP code areasYears: Release as distributed with the tract and ZCTA atlas files. · Weights: none (area values) · License: US government data, open access.
• Social Capital AtlasSocial Capital Atlas ZIP code values (2022 release, Facebook users), six measuresYears: Built from Facebook friendship data; see the provider for the measurement window. · Weights: none (area values) · License: See the provider's terms of use.
• IRS SOI ZIP code dataIRS Statistics of Income ZIP code data, tax year 2022: shares of returns with the earned income credit and with unemployment compensation, and mean adjusted gross income per returnYears: Tax year as distributed with the ZCTA atlas file. · Weights: none (area values) · License: See the provider's terms of use.

All data sources

References

1. Fekrazad, Amir (2025). A dataset of US precinct votes allocated to Census geographies with precision. Scientific Data 12: 794. doi:10.1038/s41597-025-05140-3
2. Greenlund, Kurt J.; Lu, Hua; Wang, Yan; Matthews, Kevin A.; LeClercq, Jennifer M.; Lee, Benjamin; Carlson, Susan A. (2022). PLACES: Local Data for Better Health. Preventing Chronic Disease 19: 210459. doi:10.5888/pcd19.210459
3. Chetty, Raj; Friedman, John N.; Hendren, Nathaniel; Jones, Maggie R.; Porter, Sonya R. (2018). The Opportunity Atlas: Mapping the Childhood Roots of Social Mobility. NBER Working Paper 25147. doi:10.3386/w25147
4. Kind, Amy J. H.; Buckingham, William R. (2018). Making Neighborhood-Disadvantage Metrics Accessible: The Neighborhood Atlas. New England Journal of Medicine 378: 2456-2458. doi:10.1056/NEJMp1802313
5. Robinson, W. S. (1950). Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals. American Sociological Review 15(3): 351-357. doi:10.2307/2087176

How to cite

@misc{singh2026measuresofhardshipcompared,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Measures of hardship compared},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/measures-of-hardship-compared},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 3 October 2026.}
}