Companion 8.1c · Report

Measures of hardship compared

Across 80,873 census tracts, the median absolute coefficient of a hardship measure on the 2020 Democratic vote falls from 4.7 points per standard deviation to 2.2 once race and ethnicity, education, density and state are held fixed.

Author: Vishal Singh
Affiliation: NYU Stern
Published: 3 October 2026

Every estimate of the chapter with its interval and every figure as a table, generated from the chapter's data files. Table n of this report is figure n of the chapter. The same report as Markdown: report.md.

Identification

Title

Measures of hardship compared

Chapter

Companion 8.1c (Part VIII, Places and the people in them; Votes, giving and places)

Question

On one common specification, which kinds of hardship track the vote and which are demographic proxies?

Dek

Grain

places

Status

draft

Published

3 October 2026

Updated

not revised

Data sources

Precinct votes on census geographies. Precinct votes allocated to 2020 census tracts and ZIP code tabulation areas (Fekrazad 2025), contiguous states and the District of Columbia, with the American Community Survey controls of the project atlases (2019 to 2023 five-year for tracts; ZIP code vintage not confirmed); years: 2016 and 2020 (contiguous United States only); weights: votes cast in the unit (pres_tot, pres_tot_2020); units with 100 or fewer votes dropped
Area Deprivation Index. Area Deprivation Index national rank, Neighborhood Atlas version 4.0.1 (2023); tract values are unweighted means of block-group ranks and ZIP code values are area aggregations; license not confirmed; years: Vintage as distributed with the tract and ZCTA atlas files.; weights: none (area values)
Opportunity Atlas. Opportunity Atlas tract estimates for children born 1978 to 1983 with low-income parents, area-interpolated to 2020 tracts (household and individual income rank, incarceration, teen birth); years: Birth cohorts and outcome years as defined by Chetty and others (2018).; weights: none (area values)
EJScreen. EJScreen 2024 tract values (version 2.32 in the atlas build code), from a community mirror of the archived tool; years: Version as distributed with the tract atlas file.; weights: none (area values)
CDC PLACES. PLACES crude prevalence of nine adult health measures, model-based; 2024 release for tracts and 2025 release for ZIP code areas; years: Release as distributed with the tract and ZCTA atlas files.; weights: none (area values)
Social Capital Atlas. Social Capital Atlas ZIP code values (2022 release, Facebook users), six measures; years: Built from Facebook friendship data; see the provider for the measurement window.; weights: none (area values)
IRS SOI ZIP code data. IRS Statistics of Income ZIP code data, tax year 2022: shares of returns with the earned income credit and with unemployment compensation, and mean adjusted gross income per return; years: Tax year as distributed with the ZCTA atlas file.; weights: none (area values)

Canonical URL

https://vishalsingh.org/politics/measures-of-hardship-compared

Markdown

https://vishalsingh.org/politics/measures-of-hardship-compared/report.md

BibTeX

@misc{singh2026measuresofhardshipcompared,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Measures of hardship compared},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/measures-of-hardship-compared},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 3 October 2026.}
}

Principal estimates

The facts the dek and the opening prose cite, in order of appearance. Every fact is in the table of all estimates below.

Estimand	Population	Period	Value	Interval	n	Weights	Source	Fact id
count of tracts in the common sample	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	80,873			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies	n_tracts
median across measures of the absolute raw coefficient	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	4.7		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies	med_abs_raw
median across measures of the absolute common-specification coefficient	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	2.2		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies	med_abs_adj
common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: ozone	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	−3.2	95% CI −4.3 to −2.1	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen	t_ozone_adj
common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: no health insurance	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	7.6	95% CI 6.2 to 9.0	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES	t_access2_adj
count of measures whose raw 95% interval excludes zero	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	20			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies	n_raw_nonzero
count of measures that keep their sign and at least half of the raw coefficient	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	3			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies	n_keeps
share of the raw coefficient that a measure must keep to count as keeping its association	measures with a raw interval that excludes zero	2020 presidential election	50%			none (rule)	Precinct votes on census geographies	keep_threshold
count of measures that keep less than half of the raw coefficient or whose adjusted interval includes zero	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	9			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies	n_lose
count of measures whose adjusted interval lies on the other side of zero from the raw coefficient	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	8			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies	n_reverses

Findings

Once race and ethnicity, education, population density and state are held fixed, the median absolute coefficient of a tract measure of hardship on the 2020 Democratic vote is 2.2 points, against 4.7 points before any controls. The unit is points of Democratic share of the two-party vote per standard deviation of the measure, and the sample is the 80,873 census tracts that have every measure and control, described below. The adjusted coefficients run from −3.2 for ozone, an EJScreen model estimate, to 7.6 for lack of health insurance, a PLACES model estimate.

Of the 20 measures that go with the vote before any controls, 3 keep at least 50% of that association once the controls are in, 9 lose more than 50% of it and 8 reverse sign. The rule that sorts the measures into these groups was set after a first run of the estimates, and the last section shows that two measures sit close to its line.

Each measure is signed so that a higher value means more hardship, so a positive coefficient means a more Democratic vote where hardship is higher (social capital, taken up below, is the exception). The estimates are descriptive regressions that compare places. The votes are precinct returns that a land-cover model allocated to census geographies [1], so each area's Democratic share is a modeled estimate and not a count, and a pattern across areas can differ from the pattern among the people in them [2] (ecological inference). Several of the measures are model estimates as well, the PLACES health values among them, and the next section says which. Companion 8.1d, Air pollution and the vote covers air pollution in detail, and chapters are planned on deprivation and childhood outcomes (Planned, Deprivation and mobility (planned)), health (Planned, Health outcomes and the vote (planned)) and social ties (Planned, Social capital (planned)). This chapter puts the measures on one footing and does not rebuild those results.

Table 1. Raw associations with the Democratic vote split in sign across 24 hardship measures, and adjusted ones are smaller and mostly positive

One footing for every measure

The comparison fixes the sample, the outcome, the weights, the controls and the interval method, and it gives each measure the same sign and scale.

The 2020 vote layer covers the contiguous states and the District of Columbia and holds 83,648 census tracts. The tract atlas has a row for 82,765 of them. The 883 without a row are the tracts of Connecticut, which the atlas codes by planning region and the vote layer by county; they carry 1.8 million votes and voted 60% Democratic. Of the atlas tracts, 81,617 have more than 100 estimated votes, and the common sample keeps those of them that have every measure and control. They lie in 3,081 counties in 47 states and carry 154.8 million votes. The 744 tracts that drop out at this point voted 74.3% Democratic, against 52.0% in the sample. The race and college controls are missing for 218 of them, 203 in the District of Columbia, and those tracts voted 93% Democratic. The other 526 lack an Area Deprivation Index, Opportunity Atlas or EJScreen value and voted 59% Democratic (Table 2).

Table 2. The Social Capital Atlas drops ZIP code areas that voted 40% Democratic against 53% for those kept, and missing controls drop tracts in the District of Columbia

The outcome is the Democratic share of the 2020 two-party presidential vote, in points of share. The Companion 8.1d, Air pollution and the vote chapter reports the margin, the Democratic share minus the Republican share, and a coefficient of the margin is 2 times the coefficient of the share on the same data. Each area counts in proportion to its estimated votes. A measure is cut at its 1st and 99th percentiles across areas, so that a few extreme values do not set the scale, and then standardized with the vote-weighted mean and standard deviation. A coefficient is the difference in Democratic share, in points, between two areas one standard deviation apart on the measure, and with controls the two areas also match on the controls. The vote-weighted standard deviation of the Democratic share across tracts is 20.9 points.

The controls are the shares of residents who are white, Black, Asian and Hispanic, the college share, the log of population density and a fixed effect for each state, which compares areas inside one state. Race and ethnicity, education and density explain 72% of the variation in the vote within states, so an adjusted comparison is among tracts that resemble each other on traits that predict the vote closely. The controls leave out income, which is itself a measure of hardship, and age; the last section adds both as a variation. Intervals are 95% intervals from standard errors clustered by state, with the critical value of a t distribution that has one fewer degree of freedom than there are clusters, since the number of clusters is small [3].

The measures come from six sources in the project atlas, and the atlas build documentation, not the data files, dates them. The Area Deprivation Index ranks neighborhoods from least to most deprived [4]. The atlas holds the 2023 release of the Neighborhood Atlas, with tract values that are unweighted means of block-group ranks and ZIP code values that aggregate them by area, an approximation. The terms of use may restrict redistribution and are unconfirmed, so this chapter publishes coefficients and no area values. The Opportunity Atlas gives model-based estimates of outcomes in adulthood for children who grew up in a tract [5], here children born between 1978 and 1983 whose parents had low incomes, interpolated from 2010 tracts to 2020 tracts. They do not describe the tract's current residents. EJScreen is the Environmental Protection Agency's screening tool, here the 2024 release as kept in a community mirror after the agency withdrew it.The atlas build code and Companion 8.1d, Air pollution and the vote name different versions of the 2024 release, and the two have not been reconciled; the methods note gives both. The PLACES estimates of adult health are crude prevalence from a model, the 2024 release for tracts and the 2025 release for ZIP code areas, taken up below [6]. The tract controls from the American Community Survey cover 2019 to 2023, so the vote of November 2020 is set against measures dated 2019 to 2024.

Two sources exist for ZIP code areas only. The Social Capital Atlas is a 2022 snapshot built from Facebook friendships, with noise added to protect privacy [7]; the 6 columns used here match the 2022 release value for value. The IRS ZIP code data are for tax year 2022 and describe households that file a tax return. The ZIP code sample has its own counts and is described in its section. Social capital keeps its published direction, so a higher value means more connection, and the other measures are signed toward more hardship.

Before controls, the measures disagree in sign

Table 1 plots the raw and adjusted coefficient of each of the 24 tract measures. The raw coefficients run from −10.4 for arthritis, a modeled PLACES estimate, to 13.1 for proximity to hazardous waste facilities, an EJScreen indicator. Before controls, 12 measures have a coefficient with an interval above zero, 8 have one with an interval below zero and 4 have an interval that includes zero. The positive ones are mainly environmental: 13.1 (95% CI 11.9 to 14.4) for hazardous waste proximity, 11.9 (95% CI 8.1 to 15.6) for traffic proximity, 11.4 (95% CI 10.1 to 12.7) for nitrogen dioxide and 11.6 (95% CI 8.6 to 14.6) for diesel particulate matter. The negative ones are mainly deprivation and illness: −10.4 (95% CI −11.8 to −8.9) for arthritis, −6.3 (95% CI −8.5 to −4.2) for depression and −5.9 (95% CI −8.2 to −3.5) for the Area Deprivation Index, so more deprived tracts voted less Democratic.

Two Opportunity Atlas measures of income in adulthood disagree. Low household income rank has a raw coefficient of 3.0 (95% CI 1.3 to 4.8) and low individual income rank has −2.4 (95% CI −4.0 to −0.7), and the data here cannot say why the signs differ. Before controls, the answer to which kinds of hardship go with the vote depends on the measure: environmental burdens and some childhood outcomes go with a more Democratic vote, and deprivation and illness go with a more Republican one.

With controls, most coefficients are positive and smaller

With race and ethnicity, education, density and state held fixed, 16 measures have an interval above zero, 2 have one below zero and 6 include zero. The two negative ones are ozone, −3.2 (95% CI −4.3 to −2.1), and fine particles, −2.0 (95% CI −3.8 to −0.1). The largest coefficient belongs to lack of health insurance, 7.6 (95% CI 6.2 to 9.0). The next four are fair or poor health, 4.5, the Area Deprivation Index, 3.9, low household income rank, 3.6 and housing built before 1960, 3.6, and their intervals overlap one another, so the data do not rank them. Among alike tracts in one state, the ones with more hardship voted more Democratic on those 16 measures. Adjusted coefficients are closer to zero than raw ones for 17 of the 24 measures.

The measures sort into groups by what the controls do. The group of 3 that keep at least 50% of the raw coefficient is low household income rank, whose adjusted coefficient is 3.6 (95% CI 2.9 to 4.3), housing built before 1960, 3.6 (95% CI 2.9 to 4.3), and lack of health insurance, whose adjusted coefficient is larger than its raw one. The group of 9 that lose more than 50% of it, or whose adjusted interval includes zero, is made up of 6 environmental indicators, incarceration, obesity and arthritis. The group of 8 that reverse sign, with an adjusted interval on the other side of zero, is the Area Deprivation Index, low individual income rank, ozone, fine particles, depression, diabetes, current smoking and no leisure-time physical activity. The remaining 4 have a raw interval that includes zero, and teen birth, fair or poor health and poor mental health are above zero once the controls are in. Both the 50% line and the choice of the 9 PLACES measures, made after a first look at 19 of the 40, followed a first run of the estimates. The last section shows how firm the groups are.

Race and education move the coefficients most

Table 3 adds the controls one block at a time. Across measures the median absolute change in the coefficient is 3.5 points when race and ethnicity enter, 3.8 when education enters, 1.0 when density enters and 1.6 when state fixed effects enter. The size of a step depends on the order, so the steps do not add up to a share of the change. Leaving out one block from the common specification gives a median change of 3.2 points for race and ethnicity, 3.0 for education and 0.9 for density.

Table 3. Race and education move the coefficients most, and density and state fixed effects move them less

The Area Deprivation Index shows how a control can matter by construction. It is built from income, education, employment and housing measures [4], so holding education fixed removes part of what it measures. Its coefficient is −5.9 (95% CI −8.2 to −3.5) before controls and −7.2 (95% CI −8.9 to −5.6) with race and ethnicity held fixed. With race, education and density held fixed but no state effects it is 0.0 (95% CI −2.3 to 2.3), and with state effects it is 3.9 (95% CI 2.6 to 5.2). In the common specification without the college share it is −3.6 (95% CI −5.2 to −2.1).

Environmental burdens lose most of their association

Among the 10 environmental indicators, all have a raw coefficient above zero and 9 have an interval above zero. 6 of them keep at most 23% of the raw coefficient after the controls. Diesel particulate matter goes from 11.6 (95% CI 8.6 to 14.6) to 1.1 (95% CI −0.8 to 2.9), traffic proximity from 11.9 (95% CI 8.1 to 15.6) to 2.4 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.5) and nitrogen dioxide from 11.4 (95% CI 10.1 to 12.7) to 2.0 (95% CI 0.8 to 3.1). The proximity indicators for hazardous waste facilities, Superfund sites and risk management facilities go from 13.1 (95% CI 11.9 to 14.4), 6.9 (95% CI 5.7 to 8.0) and 5.0 (95% CI 3.2 to 6.7) to 3.0 (95% CI 2.2 to 3.9), 0.6 (95% CI 0.0 to 1.1) and 0.5 (95% CI −0.3 to 1.3).

A state bootstrap puts the share of the raw coefficient that remains at 9% (95% CI −1% to 28%) for diesel, 20% (95% CI 14% to 28%) for traffic, 17% (95% CI 7% to 27%) for nitrogen dioxide and 23% (95% CI 17% to 28%) for hazardous waste proximity, and the 6 indicators keep between 8% and 23% of their raw coefficients. Race, education and density explain 47% of the within-state variation in diesel exposure, 59% in nitrogen dioxide and 51% in hazardous waste proximity, so much of the within-state difference in these exposures follows demographics. The other environmental indicators behave differently. Housing built before 1960 keeps 54% (95% CI 42% to 71%) of its raw coefficient and only 9% of its variation is explained by the controls. Ozone and fine particles reverse sign, and toxic releases to air have a raw interval that includes zero. Companion 8.1d, Air pollution and the vote takes up four of these exposures in detail.

These results depend on the level of the fixed effects. With county fixed effects in place of state fixed effects, which compares tracts inside one county, diesel is 4.1 (95% CI 2.7 to 5.6), which is 36% of its raw coefficient against 9% with state effects. Obesity goes from 0.0 (95% CI −1.5 to 1.6) to 6.7 (95% CI 5.7 to 7.7), fine particles from −2.0 (95% CI −3.8 to −0.1) to 0.2 (95% CI −1.5 to 1.9) and ozone from −3.2 (95% CI −4.3 to −2.1) to −1.1 (95% CI −2.1 to −0.2). Whether a measure behaves as a demographic proxy depends on how local the comparison is.

The CDC's PLACES estimates are the output of a multilevel model fitted to survey answers. Its inputs are the respondent's age, sex, race and ethnicity and education, the county poverty rate and state and county effects. The fitted model is then applied to each area's population by age, race and ethnicity and sex. Because counts by education are not available for small areas, a bootstrap assigns education to each group [6]. A tract's own college share is therefore not an input, and a tract's estimate differs from another's through its age, sex and racial mix and its county. The atlas holds crude prevalence and not age-adjusted prevalence, so a tract with older residents has higher prevalence of an age-related condition: arthritis correlates +0.62 with the share of older residents. Across tracts, race and ethnicity shares, the shares of older residents and of children, and county effects share between 66% and 89% of the variance of the 9 PLACES measures here. County effects alone share between 33% and 78%, and race and age alone between 25% and 63%. Race, education and density with state effects share between 40% and 80% of their within-state variance (Table 4).

Table 4. Race, education and density share 40% to 80% of the within-state variance of the PLACES health measures and 2% of the variance of toxic releases

Before controls the PLACES coefficients are near zero or negative with one exception: 0.2 (95% CI −1.2 to 1.6) for fair or poor health, −0.1 (95% CI −1.5 to 1.3) for poor mental health and −6.3 (95% CI −8.5 to −4.2) for depression, against 1.8 (95% CI 0.4 to 3.1) for lack of health insurance. With the controls in, 7 of the 9 are above zero, from 1.9 (95% CI 1.2 to 2.7) for diabetes to 7.6 (95% CI 6.2 to 9.0) for lack of health insurance. What is left after the controls includes the age and sex structure, which the controls omit, and each county's own level, which are the other inputs of the model. The coefficients are not evidence that illness goes with the vote apart from who lives in a tract. Planned, Health outcomes and the vote (planned) is planned to cover the full set of PLACES outcomes.

Deprivation reverses sign and low income rank holds

The Area Deprivation Index changes from −5.9 (95% CI −8.2 to −3.5) to 3.9 (95% CI 2.6 to 5.2), and the share of its variation within states that the controls explain is 59%. Among the Opportunity Atlas measures, low household income rank keeps 119% (95% CI 70% to 234%) of its raw coefficient. Incarceration goes from 2.5 (95% CI 0.8 to 4.1) to 1.0 (95% CI 0.8 to 1.3), a share of 41% (95% CI 21% to 98%), and race, education and density explain only 13% of its variation. Low individual income rank goes from −2.4 (95% CI −4.0 to −0.7) to 2.0 (95% CI 1.3 to 2.7), and teen birth from 0.4 (95% CI −1.4 to 2.3) to 1.9 (95% CI 1.1 to 2.6). These estimates describe children born between 1978 and 1983 who grew up in a tract. Planned, Deprivation and mobility (planned) is planned to ask how deprivation and mobility relate to the vote with race held constant.

Social capital and tax returns exist for ZIP code areas only. The ZIP-only sample is 18,039 ZIP code tabulation areas carrying 149.4 million of the 157.2 million votes in ZIP code areas with more than 100 votes. The Social Capital Atlas lacks values for 11,138 areas that otherwise qualify, which carry 7.7 million votes and voted 40% Democratic, against 53% in the sample, so the ZIP-only estimates describe the areas where the atlas has values.

Table 5. Friend clustering, volunteering and the unemployment compensation share change sign once the controls enter, while the earned income credit share keeps its raw sign

Economic connectedness, which Chetty and coauthors define as the share of friends with high socioeconomic status among people with low status [7], has a raw coefficient of 0.4 (95% CI −1.5 to 2.3) and an adjusted one of −0.9 (95% CI −3.1 to 1.3), both with intervals that include zero. The two cohesiveness measures (Table 5) are strongly negative before controls, −9.1 (95% CI −11.2 to −7.1) for friend clustering and −9.7 (95% CI −11.7 to −7.8) for the friend support ratio. With controls, clustering is 1.2 (95% CI 0.3 to 2.1) and the support ratio −2.0 (95% CI −3.0 to −1.1). The volunteering rate goes from −3.1 (95% CI −4.6 to −1.5) to 3.7 (95% CI 2.9 to 4.6). Planned, Social capital (planned) is planned to take up these measures and the 2016 to 2020 swing.

The earned income credit share of tax returns keeps its sign, 2.0 (95% CI 0.2 to 3.8) before controls and 1.6 (95% CI 0.1 to 3.0) after. Low mean income per return has the other sign, −2.7 (95% CI −4.3 to −1.1) before controls and −1.7 (95% CI −3.0 to −0.4) after, so ZIP code areas with higher mean income and ZIP code areas with more credit claims both voted more Democratic. Companion 8.1b, Wages, capital and the ZIP code vote documents a U-shaped relation between tax-return shares and the 2020 margin. The share of returns with unemployment compensation goes from 4.8 (95% CI 3.2 to 6.4) to −1.2 (95% CI −2.3 to −0.2).

The adjusted coefficient differs by surface

Two sets of measures exist on both surfaces, the Area Deprivation Index and the PLACES measures. Table 6 compares their coefficients on tracts and on ZIP code areas. Without controls the two surfaces differ by at most 1.5 points, with a median of 0.6. With the common specification they differ by up to 3.4 points, with a median of 2.0. No leisure-time physical activity has 3.3 (95% CI 2.4 to 4.1) on tracts and −0.2 (95% CI −1.2 to 0.9) on ZIP code areas. The sign of the adjusted coefficient agrees on 7 of the 10 measures.

Table 6. The same measure gives raw coefficients within 1.5 points on tracts and ZIP code areas but adjusted ones up to 3.4 points apart, and up to 2.8 points apart without the college share

The surfaces differ in more than the unit, and the college variable is one reason. The college variable of the ZIP code atlas has a vote-weighted mean of 63% against 37% for the tract college share, and its definition is unresolved: the atlas metadata call it college degree or higher, and Companion 8.1b, Wages, capital and the ZIP code vote finds that its county average is too high for a bachelor's share. Leaving the college share out on both surfaces brings the coefficients together. The sign agrees on 10 of the 10 measures, the median difference is 1.3 points and the largest is 2.8, and every coefficient is negative on both surfaces. The Area Deprivation Index is aggregated differently, an unweighted mean of block-group ranks for tracts and an area aggregation for ZIP code areas, and the PLACES values of ZIP code areas are the 2025 ZIP code estimates for 78% of the areas and a mix with tract aggregates for the rest, against the 2024 tract release.

The ZIP code areas in this comparison are the 29,276 that have an Area Deprivation Index and PLACES values, a set larger than the ZIP-only sample that includes more sparsely populated places than the tracts do. Estimates on the smaller ZIP-only sample differ from these by at most 0.7 points. Lack of health insurance has the largest adjusted coefficient on both surfaces. The unit, the sample and the aggregation of the measures cannot be separated from the college variable with these data.

Other chapters use a different footing

Table 7 sets the specifications side by side. Companion 8.1d, Air pollution and the vote reports a margin, controls for median household income, standardizes exposures with an unweighted standard deviation and clusters by county. Its diesel coefficient with race, college share and income held fixed, converted to points of share, is 5.2 (95% CI 4.1 to 6.3) on 81,134 tracts, and 2.5 (95% CI 1.3 to 3.6) with density added. On the footing of this chapter, with state fixed effects and without income, it is 1.1 (95% CI −0.8 to 2.9). Without state effects but with race, education and density it is 2.5 (95% CI 0.2 to 4.8), close to the air chapter's value with density added, so the difference between the two chapters lies mainly in the state effects. The air chapter's within-county estimate, converted to points of share, is 3.5 (95% CI 2.6 to 4.4), and the county-effects estimate on this chapter's footing is 4.1 (95% CI 2.7 to 5.6). Their intervals overlap, and both are larger than the estimate with state effects, so the diesel result depends on the level of the fixed effects.

Table 7. Two existing chapters use a different outcome, sample, weights or controls, so their coefficients cannot be set beside the ones here

Companion 8.1b, Wages, capital and the ZIP code vote uses the change in the margin between 2016 and 2020 as its outcome, on 27,144 ZIP code areas, with poverty, college, Black and Hispanic shares as controls. A coefficient there is a change in the margin and a coefficient here is a level of the share, so the two do not compare, even for the earned income credit share that appears in both.

The signs hold under the variations tried

Table 8 repeats the tract analysis under 9 variations. They are normal critical values, county clusters, the standard deviation without cutting the tails, percentile ranks in place of standard deviations, every tract counting once, the rural-urban commuting code in place of density, county fixed effects in place of state fixed effects, a higher vote floor, and median household income and the share of older residents added to the controls. The sign of the adjusted estimate agrees with the common specification for at least 21 of the 24 measures in each variation. The groups are less firm than the signs: the pattern agrees for at least 16 of the 24, and it changes most when every tract counts once and when ranks replace standard deviations. Two measures sit close to the line between keeping and losing. Housing built before 1960 keeps 54% (95% CI 42% to 71%) of its raw coefficient and is at or above 50% in 75% of the bootstrap replicates, and incarceration keeps 41% (95% CI 21% to 98%) and is at or above it in 26%.

Table 8. Under each of 9 changes to the specification the adjusted sign agrees with the common specification for at least 21 of the 24 measures

What these data cannot show

The estimates describe areas in one election. They do not say how any resident of a tract voted. The vote in each area is an allocation of precinct returns by a land-cover model, and several of the measures are modeled as well, so the estimates carry errors that the intervals leave out. The measures are not independent of the controls. The Area Deprivation Index contains education, the PLACES values are built from age, sex, race and ethnicity, education and county, and the Opportunity Atlas and EJScreen values are model estimates whose inputs the atlas does not list, so some overlap with the controls is possible. An adjusted coefficient therefore compares areas on the part of a measure that the controls do not explain, and that part can be small. The data cannot say what the remainder is.

The specification is one choice among several. The controls leave out income and age, which the last table adds. The order in which controls enter changes the size of each step, and the level of the fixed effects changes some coefficients. The coefficients are per standard deviation after the tails are cut, and other scalings change the size of some of them. The 24 tract measures overlap and are not entered together, so the coefficients cannot say which of two related measures carries a pattern. Each interval is for one estimate, and there is no adjustment for the many estimates in the chapter.

The sources differ in vintage and in what they describe. The measures are dated 2019 to 2024 and the vote is from November 2020, so most of the releases came after the election, and the atlas files do not record their dates. The atlas also holds firearm, suicide and overdose rates, which this chapter leaves out because the file does not document their source. Social capital and tax returns exist only for ZIP code areas, and the Social Capital Atlas describes Facebook users. The comparison across measures is therefore made on two surfaces with two samples, and Table 6 shows that the adjusted coefficient differs by surface. Alaska and Hawaii are not in the vote layer, Connecticut's tracts do not join the atlas, and the District of Columbia drops out of the tract sample.

The vote is the 2020 presidential two-party share. The data say nothing about turnout, other offices, other elections or the swing between elections, which Companion 8.1b, Wages, capital and the ZIP code vote takes up for ZIP code areas and Planned, Social capital (planned) is planned to take up.

Tables

Table 1. Raw associations with the Democratic vote split in sign across 24 hardship measures, and adjusted ones are smaller and mostly positive

Democratic share of the 2020 two-party presidential vote, points per standard deviation of each measure, tracts, raw and with race and ethnicity, education, density and state held fixed

adj_hi	adj_lo	adjusted	group	label	n	pattern	raw	raw_hi	raw_lo	view
5.22	2.58	3.90	Deprivation: Area Deprivation Index	Area Deprivation Index rank	80,873	Reverses sign	−5.86	−3.51	−8.22	source
4.34	2.88	3.61	Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	Low household income rank in adulthood	80,873	Keeps 50 percent or more of the raw coefficient	3.04	4.81	1.27	source
2.70	1.26	1.98	Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	Low individual income rank in adulthood	80,873	Reverses sign	−2.37	−0.695	−4.04	source
1.28	0.756	1.02	Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	Incarceration	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	2.46	4.12	0.798	source
2.59	1.13	1.86	Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	Teen birth among women	80,873	Raw interval includes zero	0.429	2.29	−1.43	source
2.93	−0.774	1.08	Environment: EJScreen	Diesel particulate matter	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	11.63	14.63	8.63	source
3.55	1.17	2.36	Environment: EJScreen	Traffic proximity	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	11.86	15.60	8.12	source
3.14	0.801	1.97	Environment: EJScreen	Nitrogen dioxide	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	11.40	12.69	10.12	source
−0.087	−3.84	−1.96	Environment: EJScreen	Fine particles (PM2.5)	80,873	Reverses sign	4.63	6.19	3.07	source
−2.09	−4.28	−3.18	Environment: EJScreen	Ozone	80,873	Reverses sign	3.83	6.30	1.36	source
0.635	−0.145	0.245	Environment: EJScreen	Toxic releases to air (RSEI)	80,873	Raw interval includes zero	0.532	1.75	−0.691	source
4.33	2.86	3.60	Environment: EJScreen	Housing built before 1960	80,873	Keeps 50 percent or more of the raw coefficient	6.67	7.81	5.54	source
1.13	−0.005	0.564	Environment: EJScreen	Proximity to Superfund sites	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	6.88	8.01	5.75	source
1.31	−0.327	0.492	Environment: EJScreen	Proximity to risk management facilities	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	4.95	6.71	3.20	source
3.86	2.20	3.03	Environment: EJScreen	Proximity to hazardous waste facilities	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	13.14	14.40	11.88	source
5.27	3.71	4.49	Health: CDC PLACES	Fair or poor health	80,873	Raw interval includes zero	0.221	1.60	−1.16	source
3.57	2.59	3.08	Health: CDC PLACES	Poor mental health	80,873	Raw interval includes zero	−0.113	1.29	−1.52	source
4.14	1.98	3.06	Health: CDC PLACES	Depression	80,873	Reverses sign	−6.33	−4.16	−8.49	source
2.68	1.22	1.95	Health: CDC PLACES	Diabetes	80,873	Reverses sign	−1.67	−0.121	−3.22	source
1.58	−1.50	0.036	Health: CDC PLACES	Obesity	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	−4.80	−2.59	−7.02	source
4.12	2.56	3.34	Health: CDC PLACES	Current smoking	80,873	Reverses sign	−4.70	−2.81	−6.58	source
4.13	2.44	3.29	Health: CDC PLACES	No leisure-time physical activity	80,873	Reverses sign	−1.88	−0.282	−3.49	source
8.97	6.21	7.59	Health: CDC PLACES	No health insurance	80,873	Keeps 50 percent or more of the raw coefficient	1.77	3.13	0.411	source
0.385	−0.636	−0.125	Health: CDC PLACES	Arthritis	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	−10.37	−8.95	−11.80	source
4.33	2.86	3.60	Keeps 50 percent or more of the raw coefficient	Housing built before 1960	80,873	Keeps 50 percent or more of the raw coefficient	6.67	7.81	5.54	pattern
4.34	2.88	3.61	Keeps 50 percent or more of the raw coefficient	Low household income rank in adulthood	80,873	Keeps 50 percent or more of the raw coefficient	3.04	4.81	1.27	pattern
8.97	6.21	7.59	Keeps 50 percent or more of the raw coefficient	No health insurance	80,873	Keeps 50 percent or more of the raw coefficient	1.77	3.13	0.411	pattern
3.86	2.20	3.03	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	Proximity to hazardous waste facilities	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	13.14	14.40	11.88	pattern
3.55	1.17	2.36	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	Traffic proximity	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	11.86	15.60	8.12	pattern
2.93	−0.774	1.08	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	Diesel particulate matter	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	11.63	14.63	8.63	pattern
3.14	0.801	1.97	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	Nitrogen dioxide	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	11.40	12.69	10.12	pattern
1.13	−0.005	0.564	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	Proximity to Superfund sites	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	6.88	8.01	5.75	pattern
1.31	−0.327	0.492	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	Proximity to risk management facilities	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	4.95	6.71	3.20	pattern
1.28	0.756	1.02	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	Incarceration	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	2.46	4.12	0.798	pattern
1.58	−1.50	0.036	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	Obesity	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	−4.80	−2.59	−7.02	pattern
0.385	−0.636	−0.125	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	Arthritis	80,873	Loses more than 50 percent of the raw coefficient	−10.37	−8.95	−11.80	pattern
−0.087	−3.84	−1.96	Reverses sign	Fine particles (PM2.5)	80,873	Reverses sign	4.63	6.19	3.07	pattern
−2.09	−4.28	−3.18	Reverses sign	Ozone	80,873	Reverses sign	3.83	6.30	1.36	pattern
2.68	1.22	1.95	Reverses sign	Diabetes	80,873	Reverses sign	−1.67	−0.121	−3.22	pattern
4.13	2.44	3.29	Reverses sign	No leisure-time physical activity	80,873	Reverses sign	−1.88	−0.282	−3.49	pattern
2.70	1.26	1.98	Reverses sign	Low individual income rank in adulthood	80,873	Reverses sign	−2.37	−0.695	−4.04	pattern
4.12	2.56	3.34	Reverses sign	Current smoking	80,873	Reverses sign	−4.70	−2.81	−6.58	pattern
5.22	2.58	3.90	Reverses sign	Area Deprivation Index rank	80,873	Reverses sign	−5.86	−3.51	−8.22	pattern
4.14	1.98	3.06	Reverses sign	Depression	80,873	Reverses sign	−6.33	−4.16	−8.49	pattern
0.635	−0.145	0.245	Raw interval includes zero	Toxic releases to air (RSEI)	80,873	Raw interval includes zero	0.532	1.75	−0.691	pattern
2.59	1.13	1.86	Raw interval includes zero	Teen birth among women	80,873	Raw interval includes zero	0.429	2.29	−1.43	pattern
5.27	3.71	4.49	Raw interval includes zero	Fair or poor health	80,873	Raw interval includes zero	0.221	1.60	−1.16	pattern
3.57	2.59	3.08	Raw interval includes zero	Poor mental health	80,873	Raw interval includes zero	−0.113	1.29	−1.52	pattern

Views: By data source (view = source); By what the controls do (view = pattern).

Note: Low household income rank and low individual income rank in adulthood are the Opportunity Atlas ranks with the sign reversed, so that a higher value means worse outcomes.

Note: Each measure is cut at its 1st and 99th percentiles across tracts before it is standardized with the vote-weighted mean and standard deviation.

Note: The grouping rule was set after a first run of the estimates, and the methods note gives it.

Note: Votes are estimates allocated from precincts to tracts, not reported counts.

Source: Precinct returns allocated to 2020 census tracts (Fekrazad 2025) with the ADI, Opportunity Atlas, EJScreen, PLACES and ACS values of the project tract atlas; 2020 presidential vote; weighted by tract votes

Data: vishalsingh.org/politics/report/measures-of-hardship-compared/figures/raw_vs_adjusted.json

Table 2. The Social Capital Atlas drops ZIP code areas that voted 40% Democratic against 53% for those kept, and missing controls drop tracts in the District of Columbia

Units dropped at each step of the tract sample and the ZIP code area sample, with the votes they carry and their Democratic share of the two-party vote, 2020

Sample	Step	Units dropped	Units left	Votes dropped (millions)	Democratic share of dropped votes (%)
Tracts	In the 2020 vote layer	n/a	83,648	n/a	n/a
Tracts	No row in the atlas	883	82,765	1.82	60
Tracts	100 or fewer estimated votes	1,148	81,617	0.01	60
Tracts	Missing a race share, the college share or population density	218	81,399	0.36	93
Tracts	Missing the Area Deprivation Index	321	81,078	0.18	61
Tracts	Missing an Opportunity Atlas estimate	200	80,878	0.28	59
Tracts	Missing an EJScreen indicator	5	80,873	0.01	48
ZIP code areas	In the 2020 vote layer	n/a	32,462	n/a	n/a
ZIP code areas	No row in the atlas	34	32,428	0.00	22
ZIP code areas	100 or fewer estimated votes	3,008	29,420	0.14	30
ZIP code areas	Missing a race share, the college share or population density	96	29,324	0.03	55
ZIP code areas	Missing the Area Deprivation Index	48	29,276	0.02	41
ZIP code areas	Bridge sample: Area Deprivation Index and PLACES present	n/a	29,276	n/a	n/a
ZIP code areas	Missing a Social Capital Atlas value	11,138	18,138	7.66	40
ZIP code areas	Missing an IRS value	99	18,039	0.14	54

Note: Steps that drop no unit are left out: no tract and no ZIP code area lacks a PLACES value.

Note: Alaska and Hawaii are not in the vote layer. The tracts with no atlas row are all in Connecticut, which has votes in the vote layer but is coded by planning region in the atlas.

Note: The ZIP code atlas has Connecticut ZIP code areas, so the ZIP sample covers Connecticut.

Source: Precinct returns allocated to 2020 tracts and ZIP code tabulation areas (Fekrazad 2025) with the project atlases; 2020 presidential vote; counts of units and votes, unweighted sums

Data: vishalsingh.org/politics/report/measures-of-hardship-compared/figures/sample_counts.json

Table 3. Race and education move the coefficients most, and density and state fixed effects move them less

Coefficient of the tract Democratic two-party share on each standardized measure, points per standard deviation, as controls are added from left to right

family	hi	lo	measure	n	specification	value
Deprivation: Area Deprivation Index	−3.51	−8.22	Area Deprivation Index rank	80,873	No controls	−5.86
Deprivation: Area Deprivation Index	−5.58	−8.87	Area Deprivation Index rank	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−7.22
Deprivation: Area Deprivation Index	1.91	−3.33	Area Deprivation Index rank	80,873	Plus education	−0.712
Deprivation: Area Deprivation Index	2.34	−2.27	Area Deprivation Index rank	80,873	Plus density	0.037
Deprivation: Area Deprivation Index	5.22	2.58	Area Deprivation Index rank	80,873	Plus state effects	3.90
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	4.81	1.27	Low household income rank in adulthood	80,873	No controls	3.04
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	0.415	−2.91	Low household income rank in adulthood	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−1.25
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	3.98	0.906	Low household income rank in adulthood	80,873	Plus education	2.45
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	3.52	0.596	Low household income rank in adulthood	80,873	Plus density	2.06
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	4.34	2.88	Low household income rank in adulthood	80,873	Plus state effects	3.61
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	−0.695	−4.04	Low individual income rank in adulthood	80,873	No controls	−2.37
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	−2.29	−5.08	Low individual income rank in adulthood	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−3.68
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	1.51	−0.940	Low individual income rank in adulthood	80,873	Plus education	0.286
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	1.53	−0.850	Low individual income rank in adulthood	80,873	Plus density	0.340
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	2.70	1.26	Low individual income rank in adulthood	80,873	Plus state effects	1.98
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	4.12	0.798	Incarceration	80,873	No controls	2.46
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	0.212	−1.43	Incarceration	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−0.610
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	1.03	−0.316	Incarceration	80,873	Plus education	0.355
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	0.744	−0.326	Incarceration	80,873	Plus density	0.209
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	1.28	0.756	Incarceration	80,873	Plus state effects	1.02
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	2.29	−1.43	Teen birth among women	80,873	No controls	0.429
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	−3.78	−6.98	Teen birth among women	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−5.38
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	0.326	−2.69	Teen birth among women	80,873	Plus education	−1.18
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	0.688	−1.96	Teen birth among women	80,873	Plus density	−0.636
Childhood outcomes: Opportunity Atlas	2.59	1.13	Teen birth among women	80,873	Plus state effects	1.86
Environment: EJScreen	14.63	8.63	Diesel particulate matter	80,873	No controls	11.63
Environment: EJScreen	10.40	5.16	Diesel particulate matter	80,873	Race and ethnicity	7.78
Environment: EJScreen	7.82	2.73	Diesel particulate matter	80,873	Plus education	5.27
Environment: EJScreen	4.79	0.207	Diesel particulate matter	80,873	Plus density	2.50
Environment: EJScreen	2.93	−0.774	Diesel particulate matter	80,873	Plus state effects	1.08
Environment: EJScreen	15.60	8.12	Traffic proximity	80,873	No controls	11.86
Environment: EJScreen	11.35	5.93	Traffic proximity	80,873	Race and ethnicity	8.64
Environment: EJScreen	8.99	4.06	Traffic proximity	80,873	Plus education	6.52
Environment: EJScreen	6.63	2.79	Traffic proximity	80,873	Plus density	4.71
Environment: EJScreen	3.55	1.17	Traffic proximity	80,873	Plus state effects	2.36
Environment: EJScreen	12.69	10.12	Nitrogen dioxide	80,873	No controls	11.40
Environment: EJScreen	8.87	6.43	Nitrogen dioxide	80,873	Race and ethnicity	7.65
Environment: EJScreen	6.67	3.94	Nitrogen dioxide	80,873	Plus education	5.31
Environment: EJScreen	4.34	0.115	Nitrogen dioxide	80,873	Plus density	2.23
Environment: EJScreen	3.14	0.801	Nitrogen dioxide	80,873	Plus state effects	1.97
Environment: EJScreen	6.19	3.07	Fine particles (PM2.5)	80,873	No controls	4.63
Environment: EJScreen	2.47	−1.15	Fine particles (PM2.5)	80,873	Race and ethnicity	0.662
Environment: EJScreen	2.18	−1.45	Fine particles (PM2.5)	80,873	Plus education	0.366
Environment: EJScreen	1.36	−2.20	Fine particles (PM2.5)	80,873	Plus density	−0.419
Environment: EJScreen	−0.087	−3.84	Fine particles (PM2.5)	80,873	Plus state effects	−1.96
Environment: EJScreen	6.30	1.36	Ozone	80,873	No controls	3.83
Environment: EJScreen	4.61	−1.76	Ozone	80,873	Race and ethnicity	1.43
Environment: EJScreen	3.20	−2.19	Ozone	80,873	Plus education	0.502
Environment: EJScreen	1.52	−2.67	Ozone	80,873	Plus density	−0.577
Environment: EJScreen	−2.09	−4.28	Ozone	80,873	Plus state effects	−3.18
Environment: EJScreen	1.75	−0.691	Toxic releases to air (RSEI)	80,873	No controls	0.532
Environment: EJScreen	0.834	−1.21	Toxic releases to air (RSEI)	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−0.188
Environment: EJScreen	0.752	−1.22	Toxic releases to air (RSEI)	80,873	Plus education	−0.235
Environment: EJScreen	0.163	−1.38	Toxic releases to air (RSEI)	80,873	Plus density	−0.610
Environment: EJScreen	0.635	−0.145	Toxic releases to air (RSEI)	80,873	Plus state effects	0.245
Environment: EJScreen	7.81	5.54	Housing built before 1960	80,873	No controls	6.67
Environment: EJScreen	6.98	4.95	Housing built before 1960	80,873	Race and ethnicity	5.96
Environment: EJScreen	7.40	5.21	Housing built before 1960	80,873	Plus education	6.31
Environment: EJScreen	6.32	4.14	Housing built before 1960	80,873	Plus density	5.23
Environment: EJScreen	4.33	2.86	Housing built before 1960	80,873	Plus state effects	3.60
Environment: EJScreen	8.01	5.75	Proximity to Superfund sites	80,873	No controls	6.88
Environment: EJScreen	5.60	3.34	Proximity to Superfund sites	80,873	Race and ethnicity	4.47
Environment: EJScreen	4.51	2.22	Proximity to Superfund sites	80,873	Plus education	3.36
Environment: EJScreen	3.08	1.18	Proximity to Superfund sites	80,873	Plus density	2.13
Environment: EJScreen	1.13	−0.005	Proximity to Superfund sites	80,873	Plus state effects	0.564
Environment: EJScreen	6.71	3.20	Proximity to risk management facilities	80,873	No controls	4.95
Environment: EJScreen	3.38	0.564	Proximity to risk management facilities	80,873	Race and ethnicity	1.97
Environment: EJScreen	2.88	0.640	Proximity to risk management facilities	80,873	Plus education	1.76
Environment: EJScreen	1.66	−0.431	Proximity to risk management facilities	80,873	Plus density	0.617
Environment: EJScreen	1.31	−0.327	Proximity to risk management facilities	80,873	Plus state effects	0.492
Environment: EJScreen	14.40	11.88	Proximity to hazardous waste facilities	80,873	No controls	13.14
Environment: EJScreen	11.06	8.94	Proximity to hazardous waste facilities	80,873	Race and ethnicity	10.00
Environment: EJScreen	8.90	6.43	Proximity to hazardous waste facilities	80,873	Plus education	7.67
Environment: EJScreen	7.10	4.56	Proximity to hazardous waste facilities	80,873	Plus density	5.83
Environment: EJScreen	3.86	2.20	Proximity to hazardous waste facilities	80,873	Plus state effects	3.03
Health: CDC PLACES	1.60	−1.16	Fair or poor health	80,873	No controls	0.221
Health: CDC PLACES	−5.58	−8.68	Fair or poor health	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−7.13
Health: CDC PLACES	3.23	0.169	Fair or poor health	80,873	Plus education	1.70
Health: CDC PLACES	3.63	1.01	Fair or poor health	80,873	Plus density	2.32
Health: CDC PLACES	5.27	3.71	Fair or poor health	80,873	Plus state effects	4.49
Health: CDC PLACES	1.29	−1.52	Poor mental health	80,873	No controls	−0.113
Health: CDC PLACES	−2.86	−5.70	Poor mental health	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−4.28
Health: CDC PLACES	4.70	1.53	Poor mental health	80,873	Plus education	3.12
Health: CDC PLACES	3.15	0.123	Poor mental health	80,873	Plus density	1.64
Health: CDC PLACES	3.57	2.59	Poor mental health	80,873	Plus state effects	3.08
Health: CDC PLACES	−4.16	−8.49	Depression	80,873	No controls	−6.33
Health: CDC PLACES	0.363	−3.76	Depression	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−1.70
Health: CDC PLACES	4.53	−0.085	Depression	80,873	Plus education	2.22
Health: CDC PLACES	3.63	−0.600	Depression	80,873	Plus density	1.51
Health: CDC PLACES	4.14	1.98	Depression	80,873	Plus state effects	3.06
Health: CDC PLACES	−0.121	−3.22	Diabetes	80,873	No controls	−1.67
Health: CDC PLACES	−6.62	−9.63	Diabetes	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−8.13
Health: CDC PLACES	−1.84	−4.23	Diabetes	80,873	Plus education	−3.04
Health: CDC PLACES	0.097	−2.35	Diabetes	80,873	Plus density	−1.13
Health: CDC PLACES	2.68	1.22	Diabetes	80,873	Plus state effects	1.95
Health: CDC PLACES	−2.59	−7.02	Obesity	80,873	No controls	−4.80
Health: CDC PLACES	−7.44	−11.41	Obesity	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−9.43
Health: CDC PLACES	−0.618	−6.02	Obesity	80,873	Plus education	−3.32
Health: CDC PLACES	0.588	−4.34	Obesity	80,873	Plus density	−1.88
Health: CDC PLACES	1.58	−1.50	Obesity	80,873	Plus state effects	0.036
Health: CDC PLACES	−2.81	−6.58	Current smoking	80,873	No controls	−4.70
Health: CDC PLACES	−5.84	−8.87	Current smoking	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−7.35
Health: CDC PLACES	2.74	−0.592	Current smoking	80,873	Plus education	1.07
Health: CDC PLACES	2.74	−0.049	Current smoking	80,873	Plus density	1.35
Health: CDC PLACES	4.12	2.56	Current smoking	80,873	Plus state effects	3.34
Health: CDC PLACES	−0.282	−3.49	No leisure-time physical activity	80,873	No controls	−1.88
Health: CDC PLACES	−7.07	−9.72	No leisure-time physical activity	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−8.40
Health: CDC PLACES	0.640	−3.25	No leisure-time physical activity	80,873	Plus education	−1.30
Health: CDC PLACES	0.744	−2.34	No leisure-time physical activity	80,873	Plus density	−0.799
Health: CDC PLACES	4.13	2.44	No leisure-time physical activity	80,873	Plus state effects	3.29
Health: CDC PLACES	3.13	0.411	No health insurance	80,873	No controls	1.77
Health: CDC PLACES	−7.70	−12.78	No health insurance	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−10.24
Health: CDC PLACES	−2.84	−6.99	No health insurance	80,873	Plus education	−4.91
Health: CDC PLACES	−2.42	−5.51	No health insurance	80,873	Plus density	−3.96
Health: CDC PLACES	8.97	6.21	No health insurance	80,873	Plus state effects	7.59
Health: CDC PLACES	−8.95	−11.80	Arthritis	80,873	No controls	−10.37
Health: CDC PLACES	−6.06	−9.56	Arthritis	80,873	Race and ethnicity	−7.81
Health: CDC PLACES	−1.48	−3.91	Arthritis	80,873	Plus education	−2.69
Health: CDC PLACES	0.759	−2.40	Arthritis	80,873	Plus density	−0.818
Health: CDC PLACES	0.385	−0.636	Arthritis	80,873	Plus state effects	−0.125

Note: The order of the columns is one of several; the size of each step depends on the order, so the steps are not shares of a total.

Note: A coefficient of zero is white, and values beyond the ends of the color scale take the color of the end.

Data: vishalsingh.org/politics/report/measures-of-hardship-compared/figures/control_ladder.json

Table 4. Race, education and density share 40% to 80% of the within-state variance of the PLACES health measures and 2% of the variance of toxic releases

Share of the vote-weighted variance of each measure shared with the controls, in percent: within states for race and ethnicity shares, the college share and density; across all tracts for race, age and county effects in the second view

family	label	value	view
Deprivation	Area Deprivation Index rank	59.24	common
Childhood outcomes	Low household income rank in adulthood	38.80	common
Childhood outcomes	Low individual income rank in adulthood	30.35	common
Childhood outcomes	Incarceration	13.36	common
Childhood outcomes	Teen birth among women	41.91	common
Environment	Diesel particulate matter	46.88	common
Environment	Traffic proximity	36.42	common
Environment	Nitrogen dioxide	58.75	common
Environment	Fine particles (PM2.5)	12.93	common
Environment	Ozone	9.23	common
Environment	Toxic releases to air (RSEI)	2.09	common
Environment	Housing built before 1960	9.11	common
Environment	Proximity to Superfund sites	10.08	common
Environment	Proximity to risk management facilities	15.12	common
Environment	Proximity to hazardous waste facilities	50.74	common
Health	Fair or poor health	70.55	common
Health	Poor mental health	59.95	common
Health	Depression	40.34	common
Health	Diabetes	56.23	common
Health	Obesity	71.20	common
Health	Current smoking	71.35	common
Health	No leisure-time physical activity	73.11	common
Health	No health insurance	80.22	common
Health	Arthritis	50.24	common
Social capital	Economic connectedness (ZIP code areas)	71.28	common
Social capital	Economic connectedness among group members (ZIP code areas)	68.35	common
Social capital	Friend clustering (ZIP code areas)	50.74	common
Social capital	Friend support ratio (ZIP code areas)	42.22	common
Social capital	Volunteering rate (ZIP code areas)	35.73	common
Social capital	Civic organizations per capita (ZIP code areas)	9.28	common
Tax returns	Earned income credit share of returns (ZIP code areas)	79.93	common
Tax returns	Unemployment compensation share of returns (ZIP code areas)	23.71	common
Tax returns	Low mean adjusted gross income per return (ZIP code areas)	53.73	common
Health	Fair or poor health	69.26	places
Health	Poor mental health	67.18	places
Health	Depression	87.07	places
Health	Diabetes	76.39	places
Health	Obesity	89.39	places
Health	Current smoking	66.46	places
Health	No leisure-time physical activity	72.75	places
Health	No health insurance	84.86	places
Health	Arthritis	85.16	places

Views: Race, education and density, within states (view = common); PLACES measures: race, age and county, all tracts (view = places).

Note: R-squared values describe the full sample and carry no interval.

Note: ZIP code rows use the ZIP code sample that has every Social Capital Atlas and IRS value.

Note: Each measure is cut at its 1st and 99th percentiles before the variance is taken, as in the coefficient figures.

Source: Precinct returns allocated to 2020 census tracts and ZIP code tabulation areas (Fekrazad 2025) with the project atlases; 2020 presidential vote; weighted by votes in each unit

Data: vishalsingh.org/politics/report/measures-of-hardship-compared/figures/demographic_content.json

Table 5. Friend clustering, volunteering and the unemployment compensation share change sign once the controls enter, while the earned income credit share keeps its raw sign

Democratic share of the 2020 two-party presidential vote, points per standard deviation of each measure, ZIP code areas, raw and with race and ethnicity, education, density and state held fixed

adj_hi	adj_lo	adjusted	group	label	n	raw	raw_hi	raw_lo
1.26	−3.09	−0.914	Social capital: Social Capital Atlas (higher means more connection)	Economic connectedness	18,039	0.394	2.28	−1.49
−0.018	−3.67	−1.84	Social capital: Social Capital Atlas (higher means more connection)	Economic connectedness among group members	18,039	1.33	3.03	−0.368
2.11	0.322	1.22	Social capital: Social Capital Atlas (higher means more connection)	Friend clustering	18,039	−9.13	−7.06	−11.21
−1.06	−2.97	−2.01	Social capital: Social Capital Atlas (higher means more connection)	Friend support ratio	18,039	−9.74	−7.81	−11.67
4.59	2.86	3.72	Social capital: Social Capital Atlas (higher means more connection)	Volunteering rate	18,039	−3.05	−1.49	−4.62
2.72	1.79	2.26	Social capital: Social Capital Atlas (higher means more connection)	Civic organizations per capita	18,039	−0.433	0.445	−1.31
3.03	0.129	1.58	Tax returns: IRS ZIP code data	Earned income credit share of returns	18,039	2.03	3.83	0.227
−0.187	−2.28	−1.23	Tax returns: IRS ZIP code data	Unemployment compensation share of returns	18,039	4.80	6.37	3.23
−0.350	−2.96	−1.65	Tax returns: IRS ZIP code data	Low mean adjusted gross income per return	18,039	−2.67	−1.10	−4.25

Note: Low mean adjusted gross income per return is the mean with its sign reversed, so that a higher value means lower income.

Note: Each measure is cut at its 1st and 99th percentiles across ZIP code areas before it is standardized.

Note: Votes are estimates allocated from precincts to ZIP code tabulation areas, not reported counts.

Source: Precinct returns allocated to ZIP code tabulation areas (Fekrazad 2025) with the ADI, PLACES, Social Capital Atlas, IRS and ACS values of the project ZIP code atlas; 2020 presidential vote; weighted by ZIP code area votes

Data: vishalsingh.org/politics/report/measures-of-hardship-compared/figures/zip_measures.json

Table 6. The same measure gives raw coefficients within 1.5 points on tracts and ZIP code areas but adjusted ones up to 3.4 points apart, and up to 2.8 points apart without the college share

Democratic share of the 2020 two-party presidential vote, points per standard deviation, Area Deprivation Index and nine PLACES measures, tracts and ZIP code areas

estimate	hi	lo	measure	n	specification	surface
−5.86	−3.51	−8.22	Area Deprivation Index rank	80,873	No controls	Tracts
3.90	5.22	2.58	Area Deprivation Index rank	80,873	Common specification	Tracts
−3.63	−2.07	−5.19	Area Deprivation Index rank	80,873	Without the college share	Tracts
−7.15	−5.16	−9.14	Area Deprivation Index rank	29,276	No controls	ZIP code areas
1.75	4.00	−0.505	Area Deprivation Index rank	29,276	Common specification	ZIP code areas
−3.78	−1.71	−5.85	Area Deprivation Index rank	29,276	Without the college share	ZIP code areas
0.221	1.60	−1.16	Fair or poor health	80,873	No controls	Tracts
4.49	5.27	3.71	Fair or poor health	80,873	Common specification	Tracts
−3.32	−2.34	−4.30	Fair or poor health	80,873	Without the college share	Tracts
−0.317	1.41	−2.05	Fair or poor health	29,276	No controls	ZIP code areas
2.65	3.67	1.63	Fair or poor health	29,276	Common specification	ZIP code areas
−5.22	−4.07	−6.37	Fair or poor health	29,276	Without the college share	ZIP code areas
−0.113	1.29	−1.52	Poor mental health	80,873	No controls	Tracts
3.08	3.57	2.59	Poor mental health	80,873	Common specification	Tracts
−3.13	−2.38	−3.88	Poor mental health	80,873	Without the college share	Tracts
−1.49	0.106	−3.09	Poor mental health	29,276	No controls	ZIP code areas
1.35	2.54	0.159	Poor mental health	29,276	Common specification	ZIP code areas
−3.18	−2.31	−4.06	Poor mental health	29,276	Without the college share	ZIP code areas
−6.33	−4.16	−8.49	Depression	80,873	No controls	Tracts
3.06	4.14	1.98	Depression	80,873	Common specification	Tracts
−2.24	−1.12	−3.37	Depression	80,873	Without the college share	Tracts
−5.98	−3.10	−8.86	Depression	29,276	No controls	ZIP code areas
3.83	5.57	2.09	Depression	29,276	Common specification	ZIP code areas
−0.727	1.07	−2.53	Depression	29,276	Without the college share	ZIP code areas
−1.67	−0.121	−3.22	Diabetes	80,873	No controls	Tracts
1.95	2.68	1.22	Diabetes	80,873	Common specification	Tracts
−3.07	−1.90	−4.23	Diabetes	80,873	Without the college share	Tracts
−2.36	−0.770	−3.95	Diabetes	29,276	No controls	ZIP code areas
−0.206	0.716	−1.13	Diabetes	29,276	Common specification	ZIP code areas
−4.81	−3.45	−6.17	Diabetes	29,276	Without the college share	ZIP code areas
−4.80	−2.59	−7.02	Obesity	80,873	No controls	Tracts
0.036	1.58	−1.50	Obesity	80,873	Common specification	Tracts
−6.59	−5.20	−7.99	Obesity	80,873	Without the college share	Tracts
−6.04	−3.97	−8.12	Obesity	29,276	No controls	ZIP code areas
−2.63	−0.550	−4.72	Obesity	29,276	Common specification	ZIP code areas
−6.77	−5.14	−8.41	Obesity	29,276	Without the college share	ZIP code areas
−4.70	−2.81	−6.58	Current smoking	80,873	No controls	Tracts
3.34	4.12	2.56	Current smoking	80,873	Common specification	Tracts
−4.83	−3.99	−5.66	Current smoking	80,873	Without the college share	Tracts
−6.19	−4.37	−8.00	Current smoking	29,276	No controls	ZIP code areas
0.890	2.38	−0.598	Current smoking	29,276	Common specification	ZIP code areas
−5.87	−5.05	−6.68	Current smoking	29,276	Without the college share	ZIP code areas
−1.88	−0.282	−3.49	No leisure-time physical activity	80,873	No controls	Tracts
3.29	4.13	2.44	No leisure-time physical activity	80,873	Common specification	Tracts
−4.74	−3.78	−5.69	No leisure-time physical activity	80,873	Without the college share	Tracts
−2.14	−0.438	−3.83	No leisure-time physical activity	29,276	No controls	ZIP code areas
−0.158	0.920	−1.24	No leisure-time physical activity	29,276	Common specification	ZIP code areas
−6.35	−5.27	−7.42	No leisure-time physical activity	29,276	Without the college share	ZIP code areas
1.77	3.13	0.411	No health insurance	80,873	No controls	Tracts
7.59	8.97	6.21	No health insurance	80,873	Common specification	Tracts
−2.86	−0.641	−5.08	No health insurance	80,873	Without the college share	Tracts
1.66	2.98	0.333	No health insurance	29,276	No controls	ZIP code areas
6.04	8.54	3.54	No health insurance	29,276	Common specification	ZIP code areas
−5.69	−3.78	−7.59	No health insurance	29,276	Without the college share	ZIP code areas
−10.37	−8.95	−11.80	Arthritis	80,873	No controls	Tracts
−0.125	0.385	−0.636	Arthritis	80,873	Common specification	Tracts
−3.96	−2.86	−5.06	Arthritis	80,873	Without the college share	Tracts
−10.79	−9.16	−12.42	Arthritis	29,276	No controls	ZIP code areas
−1.53	−0.643	−2.42	Arthritis	29,276	Common specification	ZIP code areas
−4.86	−3.48	−6.23	Arthritis	29,276	Without the college share	ZIP code areas

Note: Tract and ZIP code area samples differ: ZIP code areas are fewer and include more sparsely populated places, so the comparison mixes the unit and the sample.

Note: The surfaces also differ in how the Area Deprivation Index is aggregated and in the PLACES release, so the unit is not the only difference.

Note: Estimates for the ZIP-only sample that also requires every Social Capital Atlas and IRS value differ from these by less than the surface difference.

Source: Precinct returns allocated to 2020 census tracts and ZIP code tabulation areas (Fekrazad 2025) with the ADI and PLACES values of the project atlases; 2020 presidential vote; weighted by votes in each unit

Data: vishalsingh.org/politics/report/measures-of-hardship-compared/figures/surface_check.json

Table 7. Two existing chapters use a different outcome, sample, weights or controls, so their coefficients cannot be set beside the ones here

Outcome, unit, weights, controls and interval method of this chapter and of the two chapters that use the same atlas files

Chapter	Outcome	Unit and sample	Weights	Controls	Intervals
This chapter, tracts	Democratic share of the two-party vote, 2020, in points	80,873 tracts, 3,081 counties	Votes in the tract	White, Black, Asian and Hispanic shares, college share, log density, state effects	State clusters, t distribution
This chapter, ZIP code areas	Democratic share of the two-party vote, 2020, in points	18,039 ZIP code areas (Social Capital Atlas and IRS sample)	Votes in the ZIP code area	Same, with the college variable of the ZIP code atlas	State clusters, t distribution
Air pollution and the vote	Democratic two-party margin, 2020, in points (a linear function of the share)	81,134 tracts, 3,096 counties	Votes in the tract	White, Black and Hispanic shares, college share, median household income; density in one row, county effects in another	County clusters, normal; exposures standardized with the unweighted standard deviation
Wages, capital and the ZIP code vote	Swing: 2020 margin minus 2016 margin, in points	27,144 ZIP code areas, 3,088 counties	2020 votes in the ZIP code area	Poverty, college, Black and Hispanic shares; the average tax rate in some rows	County clusters, t distribution; state clusters as a check

Source: Chapter data of this book: tract and ZIP code atlas files (Fekrazad 2025) with 2016 and 2020 presidential votes; descriptions of specifications, with unit counts recomputed from the files; counts are unweighted

Data: vishalsingh.org/politics/report/measures-of-hardship-compared/figures/chapter_specs.json

Table 8. Under each of 9 changes to the specification the adjusted sign agrees with the common specification for at least 21 of the 24 measures

Tract measures, number of measures whose adjusted interval lies above zero, below zero or includes zero, and agreement with the common specification

Variation	Tracts	Above zero	Below zero	Includes zero	Same sign	Same pattern
Common specification	80,873	16	2	6	24	24
Normal instead of t critical value	80,873	17	2	5	24	24
Intervals clustered by county	80,873	19	2	3	24	24
Standard deviation without cutting the tails	80,873	16	2	6	24	24
Vote-weighted percentile rank in place of the standard deviation	80,873	17	1	6	21	19
Every tract counts once	80,873	18	1	5	24	16
Rural-urban commuting area code in place of density	80,873	19	2	3	23	23
County fixed effects in place of state fixed effects	80,873	21	1	2	23	22
Tracts with more than 500 votes	78,837	16	2	6	23	24
Median household income and the share of older residents added	80,653	17	2	5	23	22

Note: The pattern is the grouping of the first figure; the group labels there state the rule.

Note: The income and age row drops the tracts without a median household income.

Source: Precinct returns allocated to 2020 census tracts (Fekrazad 2025) with the project tract atlas; 2020 presidential vote; weighted by tract votes except where the row says every tract counts once

Data: vishalsingh.org/politics/report/measures-of-hardship-compared/figures/robustness.json

All estimates

Every fact in facts.json (173), sorted by id. The same values as JSON: facts.json.

Fact id	Value	Unit	Estimand	Population	Period	Interval	n	Weights	Source
adi_no_edu	−3.6	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Area Deprivation Index with the college share left out	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI −5.2 to −2.1	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Area Deprivation Index
adi_no_fe	0.0	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	coefficient of the Area Deprivation Index with race, education and density but no state fixed effects	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI −2.3 to 2.3	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Area Deprivation Index
adi_race_only	−7.2	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	coefficient of the Area Deprivation Index with race and ethnicity shares held fixed	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI −8.9 to −5.6	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Area Deprivation Index
air_diesel_ctrl	5.2	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of diesel exposure	coefficient of the Democratic share on diesel exposure standardized with the unweighted standard deviation, race, college share and median income held fixed	tracts of the air pollution chapter sample	2020 presidential election	95% CI 4.1 to 6.3	81,134	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
air_diesel_dens	2.5	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of diesel exposure	coefficient of the Democratic share on diesel exposure standardized with the unweighted standard deviation, race, college share, median income and density held fixed	tracts of the air pollution chapter sample	2020 presidential election	95% CI 1.3 to 3.6	81,134	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
air_diesel_fe	3.5	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of diesel exposure	within-county coefficient of the Democratic share on diesel exposure with race, college share, median income and density held fixed	tracts of the air pollution chapter sample	2020 presidential election	95% CI 2.6 to 4.4	81,134	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
air_n	81,134	tracts	count of tracts	tracts of the air pollution chapter sample	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
coll_mean_tract	37%	percent of residents	vote-weighted mean of the tract college share (pct_college_plus)	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
coll_mean_zip	63%	percent of residents	vote-weighted mean of the ZIP code area college variable (per_college_above)	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes, the Area Deprivation Index and every PLACES measure	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the ZIP code area (pres_tot_2020)	Precinct votes on census geographies
dem_not_in_atlas	60%	percent of the two-party vote	Democratic share of the two-party vote	tracts of the vote layer with no row in the tract atlas	2020 presidential election			votes cast (sums of tract votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
diesel_cfe	4.1	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	coefficient with race, education and density and county fixed effects instead of state fixed effects: diesel particulate matter	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 2.7 to 5.6	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
diesel_no_fe	2.5	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	coefficient with race, education and density but no state fixed effects: diesel particulate matter	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 0.2 to 4.8	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
drop_controls	218	tracts	count of tracts dropped at this step of the sample	tracts with more than 100 votes	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
drop_controls_dc	203	tracts	count of such tracts in the District of Columbia	tracts with more than 100 votes and no race share or college share	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
drop_controls_dem	93%	percent of the two-party vote	Democratic share of the two-party vote	tracts dropped for a missing control	2020 presidential election			votes cast (sums of tract votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
drop_dens	0.9	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	median across measures of the absolute change in the common-specification coefficient when density is left out	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
drop_edu	3.0	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	median across measures of the absolute change in the common-specification coefficient when education is left out	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
drop_race	3.2	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	median across measures of the absolute change in the common-specification coefficient when race and ethnicity is left out	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
dropped_dem	74.3%	percent of the two-party vote	Democratic share of the two-party vote in the dropped tracts	dropped tracts with more than 100 votes	2020 presidential election			votes cast (sums of tract votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
dropped_n	744	tracts	count of tracts dropped	tracts with more than 100 votes that lack a measure or control	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
dropped_other_dem	59%	percent of the two-party vote	Democratic share of the two-party vote	tracts dropped for a missing Area Deprivation Index, Opportunity Atlas or EJScreen value	2020 presidential election			votes cast (sums of tract votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
dropped_other_n	526	tracts	count of tracts dropped	tracts with more than 100 votes and the controls but no value for the Area Deprivation Index, the Opportunity Atlas or EJScreen	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
jail_p50	26%	percent of bootstrap replicates	share of 2,000 state bootstrap replicates in which the retained share is at least 50 percent: incarceration	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Opportunity Atlas
keep_threshold	50%	percent of the raw coefficient	share of the raw coefficient that a measure must keep to count as keeping its association	measures with a raw interval that excludes zero	2020 presidential election			none (rule)	Precinct votes on census geographies
kept_diesel	9%	percent of the raw coefficient	common-specification coefficient divided by the raw coefficient, diesel particulate matter	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI −1% to 28%	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
kept_diesel_cfe	36%	percent of the raw coefficient	county-fixed-effects coefficient divided by the raw coefficient, diesel particulate matter (a ratio of point estimates)	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
kept_env_max	23%	percent of the raw coefficient	largest share of the raw coefficient kept among the six indicators	six environmental indicators	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
kept_env_min	8%	percent of the raw coefficient	smallest share of the raw coefficient kept among the six indicators	six environmental indicators	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
kept_haz	23%	percent of the raw coefficient	common-specification coefficient divided by the raw coefficient, proximity to hazardous waste facilities	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 17% to 28%	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
kept_jail	41%	percent of the raw coefficient	common-specification coefficient divided by the raw coefficient, incarceration	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 21% to 98%	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Opportunity Atlas
kept_kfr	119%	percent of the raw coefficient	common-specification coefficient divided by the raw coefficient, low household income rank in adulthood	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 70% to 234%	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Opportunity Atlas
kept_lead	54%	percent of the raw coefficient	common-specification coefficient divided by the raw coefficient, housing built before 1960	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 42% to 71%	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
kept_no2	17%	percent of the raw coefficient	common-specification coefficient divided by the raw coefficient, nitrogen dioxide	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 7% to 27%	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
kept_traffic	20%	percent of the raw coefficient	common-specification coefficient divided by the raw coefficient, traffic proximity	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 14% to 28%	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
lead_p50	75%	percent of bootstrap replicates	share of 2,000 state bootstrap replicates in which the retained share is at least 50 percent: housing built before 1960	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
margin_factor	2	multiple	factor between the two-party margin in points and the Democratic share minus 50	tracts	2020 presidential election			none (definition)	Precinct votes on census geographies
med_abs_adj	2.2	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	median across measures of the absolute common-specification coefficient	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
med_abs_raw	4.7	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	median across measures of the absolute raw coefficient	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_adj_neg	2	measures	count of measures whose adjusted 95% interval lies below zero	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_adj_pos	16	measures	count of measures whose adjusted 95% interval lies above zero	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_adj_zero	6	measures	count of measures whose adjusted 95% interval includes zero	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_atlas_tracts	82,765	tracts	count of tracts	2020 census tracts in the tract atlas	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_closer	17	measures	count of measures whose adjusted coefficient is closer to zero than the raw coefficient	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_counties	3,081	counties	count of counties containing a tract of the sample	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_env	10	indicators	count of environmental indicators	EJScreen indicators in the chapter	2020 presidential election			none (count)	EJScreen
n_env_lose	6	indicators	count of environmental indicators that keep less than half of the raw coefficient or whose adjusted interval includes zero	EJScreen indicators in the chapter	2020 presidential election			none (count)	EJScreen
n_env_pos_int	9	indicators	count of environmental indicators whose raw 95% interval lies above zero	EJScreen indicators in the chapter	2020 presidential election			none (count)	EJScreen
n_health	9	measures	count of PLACES measures	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_health_pos	7	measures	count of PLACES measures whose adjusted 95% interval lies above zero	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_keeps	3	measures	count of measures that keep their sign and at least half of the raw coefficient	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_layer_tracts	83,648	tracts	count of tracts	2020 census tracts in the vote layer	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_lose	9	measures	count of measures that keep less than half of the raw coefficient or whose adjusted interval includes zero	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_meas	24	measures	count of measures	tract measures of hardship in the chapter	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_not_in_atlas	883	tracts	count of tracts	tracts of the vote layer with no row in the tract atlas	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_over100	81,617	tracts	count of tracts	tracts in the atlas with more than 100 estimated presidential votes	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_raw_neg	8	measures	count of measures whose raw 95% interval lies below zero	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_raw_nonzero	20	measures	count of measures whose raw 95% interval excludes zero	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_raw_pos	12	measures	count of measures whose raw 95% interval lies above zero	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_raw_zero	4	measures	count of measures whose raw 95% interval includes zero	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_reverses	8	measures	count of measures whose adjusted interval lies on the other side of zero from the raw coefficient	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_sc_meas	6	measures	count of measures	Social Capital Atlas measures	2020 presidential election			none (count)	Social Capital Atlas
n_startzero	4	measures	count of measures whose raw interval includes zero	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_states	47	states	count of states containing a tract of the sample	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_surf	10	measures	count of measures on both surfaces	ADI and PLACES measures	2020 presidential election			none (count)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_tracts	80,873	tracts	count of tracts in the common sample	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_variants	9	measures	count of variations of the specification	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_zip	18,039	ZIP code areas	count of ZIP code areas in the ZIP-only sample	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control, including the Social Capital Atlas and IRS values	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_zip_br	29,276	ZIP code areas	count of ZIP code areas in the bridge sample	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes, the Area Deprivation Index and every PLACES measure	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
n_zip_meas	9	measures	count of Social Capital Atlas and IRS measures	ZIP-only measures	2020 presidential election			none (count)	Precinct votes on census geographies
obesity_cfe	6.7	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	coefficient with race, education and density and county fixed effects instead of state fixed effects: obesity	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 5.7 to 7.7	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
ozone_cfe	−1.1	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	coefficient with race, education and density and county fixed effects instead of state fixed effects: ozone	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI −2.1 to −0.2	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
places_comp_max	89%	percent of variance	largest share of the variance of a PLACES measure explained by race and ethnicity, age and county effects	tracts with more than 100 votes, race and age shares present	2020 presidential election		81,400	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
places_comp_min	66%	percent of variance	smallest share of the variance of a PLACES measure explained by race and ethnicity, age and county effects	tracts with more than 100 votes, race and age shares present	2020 presidential election		81,400	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
places_county_max	78%	percent of variance	largest share of the variance of a PLACES measure shared with county fixed effects alone	tracts with more than 100 votes, race and age shares present	2020 presidential election		81,400	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
places_county_min	33%	percent of variance	smallest share of the variance of a PLACES measure shared with county fixed effects alone	tracts with more than 100 votes, race and age shares present	2020 presidential election		81,400	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
places_looked	19	measures	count of PLACES measures examined in an exploratory run before the nine of the chapter were chosen	PLACES measures in the tract atlas	2020 presidential election			none (count)	CDC PLACES
places_raceage_max	63%	percent of variance	largest share of the variance of a PLACES measure shared with race and ethnicity and age shares alone	tracts with more than 100 votes, race and age shares present	2020 presidential election		81,400	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
places_raceage_min	25%	percent of variance	smallest share of the variance of a PLACES measure shared with race and ethnicity and age shares alone	tracts with more than 100 votes, race and age shares present	2020 presidential election		81,400	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
places_total	40	measures	count of PLACES measures in the tract atlas	PLACES measures in the tract atlas	2020 presidential election			none (count)	CDC PLACES
pm25_cfe	0.2	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	coefficient with race, education and density and county fixed effects instead of state fixed effects: fine particles (pm2.5)	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI −1.5 to 1.9	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
r2_adi	59%	percent of within-state variance	share of the within-state variance of the Area Deprivation Index explained by race and ethnicity, college share and density	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Area Deprivation Index
r2_diesel	47%	percent of within-state variance	share of the within-state variance of diesel exposure explained by race and ethnicity, college share and density	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
r2_haz	51%	percent of within-state variance	share of the within-state variance of hazardous waste proximity explained by race and ethnicity, college share and density	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
r2_health_max	80%	percent of within-state variance	largest share of the within-state variance of a PLACES measure explained by race and ethnicity, college share and density	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
r2_health_min	40%	percent of within-state variance	smallest share of the within-state variance of a PLACES measure explained by race and ethnicity, college share and density	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
r2_jail	13%	percent of within-state variance	share of the within-state variance of childhood incarceration explained by race and ethnicity, college share and density	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Opportunity Atlas
r2_lead	9%	percent of within-state variance	share of the within-state variance of older housing explained by race and ethnicity, college share and density	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
r2_no2	59%	percent of within-state variance	share of the within-state variance of nitrogen dioxide explained by race and ethnicity, college share and density	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
r2_toxics	2%	percent of within-state variance	share of the within-state variance of toxic releases explained by race and ethnicity, college share and density	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
r2_y_within	72%	percent of within-state variance	share of the vote-weighted within-state variance of the Democratic share explained by race and ethnicity, college share and log density	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
r_age_arthritis	+0.62	correlation	vote-weighted correlation of arthritis prevalence with the share of residents aged 65 and older	tracts with more than 100 votes, race and age shares present	2020 presidential election		81,400	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
rob_pattern_min	16	measures	smallest count of measures whose pattern matches the common specification across the variations	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
rob_pos_max	21	measures	largest count of measures with an adjusted interval above zero across the common specification and its variations	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
rob_pos_min	16	measures	smallest count of measures with an adjusted interval above zero across the common specification and its variations	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
rob_sign_min	21	measures	smallest count of measures whose adjusted sign matches the common specification across the variations	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
sample_dem	52.0%	percent of the two-party vote	Democratic share of the two-party vote in the sample	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast (sums of tract votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
sd_y	20.9	points of Democratic two-party share	vote-weighted standard deviation of the tract Democratic two-party share	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
step_dens	1.0	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	median across measures of the absolute change in the coefficient when density enters	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
step_edu	3.8	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	median across measures of the absolute change in the coefficient when education enters	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
step_fe	1.6	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	median across measures of the absolute change in the coefficient when state fixed effects enters	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
step_race	3.5	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	median across measures of the absolute change in the coefficient when race and ethnicity enters	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election		80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Precinct votes on census geographies
surf_adj_max	3.4	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	largest absolute difference between the tract and ZIP code area common-specification coefficients across ten measures	ADI and PLACES measures on tracts and on ZIP code areas	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the unit	Precinct votes on census geographies
surf_adj_median	2.0	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	median absolute difference between the tract and ZIP code area common-specification coefficients across ten measures	ADI and PLACES measures on tracts and on ZIP code areas	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the unit	Precinct votes on census geographies
surf_nc_max	2.8	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	largest absolute difference between the tract and ZIP code area coefficients with race, density and state held fixed and the college share left out	ADI and PLACES measures on tracts and on ZIP code areas	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the unit	Precinct votes on census geographies
surf_nc_median	1.3	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	median absolute difference between the tract and ZIP code area coefficients with the college share left out	ADI and PLACES measures on tracts and on ZIP code areas	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the unit	Precinct votes on census geographies
surf_nc_same	10	measures	count of the ten measures with the same sign of the coefficient on tracts and on ZIP code areas with the college share left out	ADI and PLACES measures	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the unit	Precinct votes on census geographies
surf_raw_max	1.5	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	largest absolute difference between the tract and ZIP code area raw coefficients across ten measures	ADI and PLACES measures on tracts and on ZIP code areas	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the unit	Precinct votes on census geographies
surf_raw_median	0.6	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	median absolute difference between the tract and ZIP code area raw coefficients across ten measures	ADI and PLACES measures on tracts and on ZIP code areas	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the unit	Precinct votes on census geographies
surf_same_sign	7	measures	count of the ten measures with the same sign of the common-specification coefficient on tracts and on ZIP code areas	ADI and PLACES measures	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the unit	Precinct votes on census geographies
surf_sc_diff	0.7	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	largest absolute difference between common-specification coefficients on the bridge sample and the ZIP-only sample across ten measures	ADI and PLACES measures on tracts and on ZIP code areas	2020 presidential election			votes cast in the unit	Precinct votes on census geographies
t_access2_adj	7.6	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: no health insurance	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 6.2 to 9.0	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
t_access2_raw	1.8	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: no health insurance	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 0.4 to 3.1	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
t_adi_adj	3.9	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: area deprivation index rank	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 2.6 to 5.2	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Area Deprivation Index
t_adi_raw	−5.9	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: area deprivation index rank	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI −8.2 to −3.5	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Area Deprivation Index
t_arthritis_raw	−10.4	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: arthritis	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI −11.8 to −8.9	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
t_depression_raw	−6.3	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: depression	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI −8.5 to −4.2	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
t_diabetes_adj	1.9	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: diabetes	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 1.2 to 2.7	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
t_diesel_adj	1.1	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: diesel particulate matter	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI −0.8 to 2.9	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
t_diesel_raw	11.6	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: diesel particulate matter	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 8.6 to 14.6	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
t_ghlth_adj	4.5	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: fair or poor health	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 3.7 to 5.3	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
t_ghlth_raw	0.2	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: fair or poor health	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI −1.2 to 1.6	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
t_haz_adj	3.0	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: proximity to hazardous waste facilities	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 2.2 to 3.9	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
t_haz_raw	13.1	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: proximity to hazardous waste facilities	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 11.9 to 14.4	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
t_jail_adj	1.0	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: incarceration	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 0.8 to 1.3	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Opportunity Atlas
t_jail_raw	2.5	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: incarceration	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 0.8 to 4.1	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Opportunity Atlas
t_kfr_adj	3.6	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: low household income rank in adulthood	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 2.9 to 4.3	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Opportunity Atlas
t_kfr_raw	3.0	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: low household income rank in adulthood	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 1.3 to 4.8	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Opportunity Atlas
t_kir_adj	2.0	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: low individual income rank in adulthood	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 1.3 to 2.7	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Opportunity Atlas
t_kir_raw	−2.4	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: low individual income rank in adulthood	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI −4.0 to −0.7	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Opportunity Atlas
t_lead_adj	3.6	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: housing built before 1960	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 2.9 to 4.3	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
t_lpa_adj	3.3	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: no leisure-time physical activity	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 2.4 to 4.1	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
t_mhlth_raw	−0.1	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: poor mental health	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI −1.5 to 1.3	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
t_no2_adj	2.0	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: nitrogen dioxide	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 0.8 to 3.1	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
t_no2_raw	11.4	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: nitrogen dioxide	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 10.1 to 12.7	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
t_obesity_adj	0.0	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: obesity	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI −1.5 to 1.6	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	CDC PLACES
t_ozone_adj	−3.2	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: ozone	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI −4.3 to −2.1	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
t_pm25_adj	−2.0	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: fine particles (pm2.5)	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI −3.8 to −0.1	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
t_rmp_adj	0.5	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: proximity to risk management facilities	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI −0.3 to 1.3	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
t_rmp_raw	5.0	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: proximity to risk management facilities	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 3.2 to 6.7	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
t_superfund_adj	0.6	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: proximity to superfund sites	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 0.0 to 1.1	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
t_superfund_raw	6.9	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: proximity to superfund sites	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 5.7 to 8.0	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
t_teen_adj	1.9	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: teen birth among women	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 1.1 to 2.6	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Opportunity Atlas
t_teen_raw	0.4	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: teen birth among women	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI −1.4 to 2.3	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	Opportunity Atlas
t_traffic_adj	2.4	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: traffic proximity	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 1.2 to 3.5	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
t_traffic_raw	11.9	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: traffic proximity	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election	95% CI 8.1 to 15.6	80,873	votes cast in the tract (pres_tot)	EJScreen
vote_floor	100	estimated votes	minimum votes for a unit to enter the sample	tracts and ZIP code areas	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
votes_m	154.8 million	votes	sum of estimated presidential votes	tracts in the 2020 atlas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
votes_not_in_atlas_m	1.8 million	votes	sum of estimated presidential votes	tracts of the vote layer with no row in the tract atlas	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
wages_n	27,144	ZIP code areas	count of ZIP code areas	ZIP code areas of the wages chapter sample	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
z_agi_adj	−1.7	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: low mean adjusted gross income per return	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control, including the Social Capital Atlas and IRS values	2020 presidential election	95% CI −3.0 to −0.4	18,039	votes cast in the ZIP code area (pres_tot_2020)	IRS SOI ZIP code data
z_agi_raw	−2.7	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: low mean adjusted gross income per return	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control, including the Social Capital Atlas and IRS values	2020 presidential election	95% CI −4.3 to −1.1	18,039	votes cast in the ZIP code area (pres_tot_2020)	IRS SOI ZIP code data
z_eitc_adj	1.6	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: earned income credit share of returns	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control, including the Social Capital Atlas and IRS values	2020 presidential election	95% CI 0.1 to 3.0	18,039	votes cast in the ZIP code area (pres_tot_2020)	IRS SOI ZIP code data
z_eitc_raw	2.0	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: earned income credit share of returns	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control, including the Social Capital Atlas and IRS values	2020 presidential election	95% CI 0.2 to 3.8	18,039	votes cast in the ZIP code area (pres_tot_2020)	IRS SOI ZIP code data
z_sc_clu_adj	1.2	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: friend clustering	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control, including the Social Capital Atlas and IRS values	2020 presidential election	95% CI 0.3 to 2.1	18,039	votes cast in the ZIP code area (pres_tot_2020)	Social Capital Atlas
z_sc_clu_raw	−9.1	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: friend clustering	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control, including the Social Capital Atlas and IRS values	2020 presidential election	95% CI −11.2 to −7.1	18,039	votes cast in the ZIP code area (pres_tot_2020)	Social Capital Atlas
z_sc_ec_adj	−0.9	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: economic connectedness	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control, including the Social Capital Atlas and IRS values	2020 presidential election	95% CI −3.1 to 1.3	18,039	votes cast in the ZIP code area (pres_tot_2020)	Social Capital Atlas
z_sc_ec_raw	0.4	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: economic connectedness	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control, including the Social Capital Atlas and IRS values	2020 presidential election	95% CI −1.5 to 2.3	18,039	votes cast in the ZIP code area (pres_tot_2020)	Social Capital Atlas
z_sc_sup_adj	−2.0	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: friend support ratio	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control, including the Social Capital Atlas and IRS values	2020 presidential election	95% CI −3.0 to −1.1	18,039	votes cast in the ZIP code area (pres_tot_2020)	Social Capital Atlas
z_sc_sup_raw	−9.7	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: friend support ratio	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control, including the Social Capital Atlas and IRS values	2020 presidential election	95% CI −11.7 to −7.8	18,039	votes cast in the ZIP code area (pres_tot_2020)	Social Capital Atlas
z_sc_vol_adj	3.7	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: volunteering rate	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control, including the Social Capital Atlas and IRS values	2020 presidential election	95% CI 2.9 to 4.6	18,039	votes cast in the ZIP code area (pres_tot_2020)	Social Capital Atlas
z_sc_vol_raw	−3.1	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: volunteering rate	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control, including the Social Capital Atlas and IRS values	2020 presidential election	95% CI −4.6 to −1.5	18,039	votes cast in the ZIP code area (pres_tot_2020)	Social Capital Atlas
z_unemp_adj	−1.2	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: unemployment compensation share of returns	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control, including the Social Capital Atlas and IRS values	2020 presidential election	95% CI −2.3 to −0.2	18,039	votes cast in the ZIP code area (pres_tot_2020)	IRS SOI ZIP code data
z_unemp_raw	4.8	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	raw coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: unemployment compensation share of returns	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control, including the Social Capital Atlas and IRS values	2020 presidential election	95% CI 3.2 to 6.4	18,039	votes cast in the ZIP code area (pres_tot_2020)	IRS SOI ZIP code data
zb_lpa_adj	−0.2	points of Democratic two-party vote share per standard deviation of the measure	common-specification coefficient of the Democratic two-party share on the standardized measure: no leisure-time physical activity	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes, the Area Deprivation Index and every PLACES measure	2020 presidential election	95% CI −1.2 to 0.9	29,276	votes cast in the ZIP code area (pres_tot_2020)	CDC PLACES
zip_adj_neg	4	measures	count of ZIP-only measures whose adjusted 95% interval lies below zero	ZIP-only measures	2020 presidential election			none (count)	Precinct votes on census geographies
zip_adj_pos	4	measures	count of ZIP-only measures whose adjusted 95% interval lies above zero	ZIP-only measures	2020 presidential election			none (count)	Precinct votes on census geographies
zip_health_native	78%	percent of ZIP code areas	share of ZIP code areas whose PLACES values are native ZIP code tabulation area estimates	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes, the Area Deprivation Index and every PLACES measure	2020 presidential election			none (share of areas)	CDC PLACES
zip_sample_dem	53%	percent of the two-party vote	Democratic share of the two-party vote in the sample	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control, including the Social Capital Atlas and IRS values	2020 presidential election			votes cast (sums of ZIP code area votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
zip_sc_dropped_dem	40%	percent of the two-party vote	Democratic share of the two-party vote	ZIP code areas dropped for a missing Social Capital Atlas value	2020 presidential election			votes cast (sums of ZIP code area votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
zip_sc_dropped_n	11,138	ZIP code areas	count of ZIP code areas with no Social Capital Atlas value for at least one of six measures	ZIP code areas with more than 100 votes, controls and ADI	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
zip_sc_dropped_votes_m	7.7 million	votes	sum of estimated presidential votes	ZIP code areas dropped for a missing Social Capital Atlas value	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
zip_votes_m	149.4 million	votes	sum of estimated presidential votes	ZIP code areas with more than 100 estimated votes and every measure and control, including the Social Capital Atlas and IRS values	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies
zip_votes_over100_m	157.2 million	votes	sum of estimated presidential votes	ZIP code areas with more than 100 votes	2020 presidential election			none (counts of units and votes)	Precinct votes on census geographies

Definitions

Standard deviation: A measure of how far values typically fall from their average. A larger standard deviation means the values are more spread out.
Census tract: A Census Bureau neighborhood area, usually home to between 1,200 and 8,000 people. Tract boundaries were redrawn after the 2010 census and again after 2020.
Ecological inference: Drawing a conclusion about individuals from data on groups or places, such as counties. A pattern across counties can differ from the pattern among the people who live in them.
Percentage point: The unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused.
Fixed effects: Regression terms that give each group, such as each country or each year, its own baseline. The other coefficients then compare respondents within the same group.
Clustered standard errors: Standard errors that allow answers within the same group, such as the same county or the same week, to be related. They are wider than ordinary errors when members of a group resemble each other.
Area Deprivation Index: A ranking of neighborhoods built from income, education, employment and housing measures in the American Community Survey. Higher ranks mean more deprived neighborhoods.
ZCTA: ZIP Code Tabulation Area: the Census Bureau's area approximation of a ZIP code, built from the census blocks that fall inside it. It is the one neighborhood geography that lines up between the 2016 and 2020 vote estimates.

Methods

Sample. Tracts: the 2020 vote layer covers the contiguous states and the District of Columbia (Alaska and Hawaii are not in it) and holds 83,648 tracts. The tract atlas holds 82,765 of them, in 47 states and the District of Columbia; the 883 tracts with no row in the atlas are all in Connecticut, which the atlas codes by planning region and the vote layer by county. 81,617 atlas tracts have more than 100 estimated presidential votes; the common sample keeps the 80,873 that also have every one of the 24 tract measures, the white, Black, Asian and Hispanic shares of residents, the college share and population density, in 3,081 counties and 47 states, carrying 154.8 million votes. The District of Columbia drops out because the atlas has no white or Asian share for its tracts (203 tracts); 15 tracts in other states lack a race share or the college share, and 526 tracts, carrying 0.47 million votes that went 59 percent Democratic, lack an Area Deprivation Index, Opportunity Atlas or EJScreen value. ZIP code areas: the ZIP code atlas holds 32,428 ZIP code tabulation areas, of the 32,462 in the vote layer; 29,420 have more than 100 estimated votes. The bridge sample keeps the 29,276 that also have the Area Deprivation Index, every PLACES measure and the controls, and the ZIP-only sample keeps the 18,039 that also have all six Social Capital Atlas values and the three IRS values, in 2,892 counties and 48 states and the District of Columbia, carrying 149.4 million votes. The atlas codes a missing American Community Survey value as -1 for some ZIP code controls, which are set to missing. The sample table lists the units dropped at each step in the order given.

Votes and outcome. Precinct returns allocated to census geographies by Regionalized Land Cover Regression (Fekrazad 2025): the 2020 returns of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, allocated in proportion to household population, as fractional counts. The vote layer reproduces the national two-party Democratic share of the contiguous states (52.24 percent in 2020, for tracts and for ZIP code areas); the tract atlas file lacks the 883 Connecticut tracts of the layer, which carry 1.8 million votes and voted 60.2 percent Democratic, and gives 52.15 percent. The outcome is 100 times the Democratic votes over the sum of the Democratic and Republican votes (pres_dem_2pty; pres_dem2pty_2020 for ZIP code areas). The two-party margin used by some chapters is twice this share minus 50. Weights: total presidential votes of the unit (pres_tot; pres_tot_2020), in the regression, in every vote-weighted mean and standard deviation and in the R-squared values. Units with 100 or fewer votes are dropped.

Measures and signs. Tracts: Area Deprivation Index national rank (adi_national_rank; higher is more deprived); Opportunity Atlas outcomes of children with low-income parents, kfr_pooled_pooled_p25 (household income rank in adulthood) and kir_pooled_pooled_p25 (individual income rank in adulthood), both with the sign reversed so that higher means a lower rank, jail_pooled_pooled_p25 (incarceration) and teenbrth_pooled_female_p25 (teen birth among women); EJScreen tract values in the atlas (ej_diesel_pm_ug_m3, ej_traffic_proximity, ej_no2_ppb, ej_pm25_ug_m3, ej_ozone_ppb, ej_air_toxics_rsei, ej_pct_pre1960_housing, ej_superfund_pctile, ej_rmp_facility_pctile, ej_haz_waste_pctile, the last three being national percentile values); PLACES health_ghlth, health_mhlth, health_depression, health_diabetes, health_obesity, health_csmoking, health_lpa, health_access2 and health_arthritis, chosen to span current illness, risk and access, plus one condition that rises with age, after an exploratory run that looked at 19 of the 40 PLACES measures; the other PLACES measures are left to the health chapter, and seven of them are missing for every tract in ten states. ZIP code areas: the Area Deprivation Index and the same PLACES measures; the Social Capital Atlas columns sc_econ_connectedness, sc_civic_membership_ec, sc_friend_clustering, sc_support_ratio, sc_volunteering_rate and sc_civic_orgs_per_cap, which match the columns ec_zip, ec_grp_mem_zip, clustering_zip, support_ratio_zip, volunteering_rate_zip and civic_organizations_zip of the 2022 release value for value (sc_civic_membership_ec is economic connectedness measured over group and club memberships, according to the atlas build documentation); IRS irs_pct_eitc_returns, irs_pct_unemp_comp_returns and irs_mean_agi_per_return (sign reversed). The Social Capital Atlas keeps its published direction, and every other measure is signed so that a higher value means more hardship. The firearm, suicide and overdose columns of the tract atlas are not used because their source is undocumented. Vintages. The atlas files record none of the following; it comes from the build code and documentation of the atlas in the birth_death project (the tract atlas file here equals that project's analytic atlas on the five columns compared): American Community Survey 2019 to 2023 five-year estimates for the tract controls (the vintage of the ZIP code controls, which come from a file named Zip_All, is not confirmed); Neighborhood Atlas Area Deprivation Index version 4.0.1 (2023), with tract values the unweighted mean of block-group ranks and ZIP code values an area aggregation of them, an approximation; Opportunity Atlas estimates for children born 1978 to 1983, area-interpolated from 2010 to 2020 tracts; EJScreen 2024, version 2.32 in the build code (the air pollution chapter identifies version 2.3 from the values), a community mirror (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.14767363) because EPA removed the tool in 2025; PLACES crude prevalence, the 2024 release for tracts and the 2025 release for ZIP code areas, with native ZIP code area values for 78 percent of the ZIP code areas of the bridge sample and a mix of native and tract-aggregated values for the rest; IRS Statistics of Income tax year 2022; Social Capital Atlas 2022. The measures are dated 2019 to 2024 and the vote is November 2020. Not confirmed: the license terms of the Area Deprivation Index and the definition of per_college_above.

Controls. Tracts: pct_white_alone, pct_black_alone, pct_asian_alone and pct_hispanic, pct_college_plus, and the log of total_population over land area in square kilometers. ZIP code areas: per_white, per_black, per_asian, per_hispanic, per_college_above (labelled college degree or higher in the atlas metadata, but the wages chapter finds a county average of 52.7 percent against 23.6 percent for the county bachelor's share, so its definition is unresolved; its vote-weighted mean is 63 percent in the bridge sample against 37 percent for the tract college share) and the log of population over land area in square miles. State fixed effects: the state of the tract, the state of the county code for ZIP code areas. Median household income and age are not controls in the common specification.

Estimator. Each measure is cut at its 1st and 99th percentile across the units of its sample (unweighted percentiles) and standardized with the vote-weighted mean and standard deviation, so a coefficient is points of Democratic share per standard deviation. Weighted least squares of the Democratic share on the measure, with the controls added cumulatively (race and ethnicity, then education, then density, then state fixed effects); the fixed effects are removed by weighted within-state demeaning, which gives the same coefficients as state indicators. The common specification is the last column. Intervals: 95%, standard errors clustered by state (CR1, the statsmodels default), with the critical value of the t distribution with the number of states minus one degrees of freedom (2.01 for 47 tract states, 2.01 for 49 ZIP code states; the normal value is 1.96) (Cameron and Miller 2015). The code reproduces b3.stats.wls to six decimals for the coefficients and standard errors of two measures in three specifications, and pyfixest with state fixed effects reproduces the estimate and standard error of 28 coefficients. Pattern rule, set after a first run of the estimates and not before: a measure keeps if its raw interval excludes zero and the adjusted coefficient has the raw sign, an interval that excludes zero and at least half of the raw size; it loses if the adjusted interval includes zero or if it has the raw sign and less than half of the raw size; it reverses if the adjusted interval excludes zero on the other side from the raw coefficient; the rest have a raw interval that includes zero. Retained share: the common-specification coefficient divided by the raw one, with a percentile interval from 2,000 state bootstrap replicates (seed 12345, whole states resampled, a state drawn twice keeps its own fixed effect); the share of replicates at or above 50 percent measures how close a measure sits to the line between keeping and losing. Variance explained: the weighted R-squared of a regression of the standardized measure on the controls with state fixed effects, as a share of the within-state variance; for PLACES measures also, over all tracts, on race and ethnicity shares, the 65-and-older and under-18 shares and county fixed effects, on county fixed effects alone and on race and age alone, as shares of the total variance of the measure cut at its 1st and 99th percentiles. Variations: normal critical values; county clusters; no cutting of the tails; vote-weighted percentile rank in place of the standard deviation; every tract counting once; the USDA rural-urban commuting area code in place of density; county fixed effects in place of state fixed effects (clusters still by state); tracts with more than 500 votes; median household income and the 65-and-older share added (tracts with an income only). Intervals are model based: they do not include error in the vote allocation or in the modeled measures, and they are not adjusted for the number of estimates. Replications: the air pollution chapter's diesel rows, including its within-county row, computed here on its own sample of 81,134 tracts, and the wages chapter's sample of 27,144 ZIP code areas, all match those chapters as published.

What these data cannot show

The estimates describe areas in one election.
They do not say how any resident of a tract voted.
The vote in each area is an allocation of precinct returns by a land-cover model, and several of the measures are modeled as well, so the estimates carry errors that the intervals leave out.
The measures are not independent of the controls.
The Area Deprivation Index contains education, the PLACES values are built from age, sex, race and ethnicity, education and county, and the Opportunity Atlas and EJScreen values are model estimates whose inputs the atlas does not list, so some overlap with the controls is possible.
An adjusted coefficient therefore compares areas on the part of a measure that the controls do not explain, and that part can be small.
The data cannot say what the remainder is.
The specification is one choice among several.
The controls leave out income and age, which the last table adds.
The order in which controls enter changes the size of each step, and the level of the fixed effects changes some coefficients.
The coefficients are per standard deviation after the tails are cut, and other scalings change the size of some of them.
The 24 tract measures overlap and are not entered together, so the coefficients cannot say which of two related measures carries a pattern.
Each interval is for one estimate, and there is no adjustment for the many estimates in the chapter.
The sources differ in vintage and in what they describe.
The measures are dated 2019 to 2024 and the vote is from November 2020, so most of the releases came after the election, and the atlas files do not record their dates.
The atlas also holds firearm, suicide and overdose rates, which this chapter leaves out because the file does not document their source.
Social capital and tax returns exist only for ZIP code areas, and the Social Capital Atlas describes Facebook users.
The comparison across measures is therefore made on two surfaces with two samples, and Table 6 shows that the adjusted coefficient differs by surface.
Alaska and Hawaii are not in the vote layer, Connecticut's tracts do not join the atlas, and the District of Columbia drops out of the tract sample.
The vote is the 2020 presidential two-party share.
The data say nothing about turnout, other offices, other elections or the swing between elections, which Companion 8.1b, Wages, capital and the ZIP code vote (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/wages-capital-and-the-county-vote) takes up for ZIP code areas and Planned, Social capital (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/social-capital; planned) is planned to take up.

References

Fekrazad, Amir (2025). A dataset of US precinct votes allocated to Census geographies with precision. Scientific Data 12: 794. doi:10.1038/s41597-025-05140-3
Robinson, W. S. (1950). Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals. American Sociological Review 15(3): 351-357. doi:10.2307/2087176
Cameron, A. Colin; Miller, Douglas L. (2015). A Practitioner's Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference. Journal of Human Resources 50(2): 317-372. doi:10.3368/jhr.50.2.317
Kind, Amy J. H.; Buckingham, William R. (2018). Making Neighborhood-Disadvantage Metrics Accessible: The Neighborhood Atlas. New England Journal of Medicine 378: 2456-2458. doi:10.1056/NEJMp1802313
Chetty, Raj; Friedman, John N.; Hendren, Nathaniel; Jones, Maggie R.; Porter, Sonya R. (2018). The Opportunity Atlas: Mapping the Childhood Roots of Social Mobility. NBER Working Paper 25147. doi:10.3386/w25147
Greenlund, Kurt J.; Lu, Hua; Wang, Yan; Matthews, Kevin A.; LeClercq, Jennifer M.; Lee, Benjamin; Carlson, Susan A. (2022). PLACES: Local Data for Better Health. Preventing Chronic Disease 19: 210459. doi:10.5888/pcd19.210459
Chetty, Raj; Jackson, Matthew O.; Kuchler, Theresa; Stroebel, Johannes; and others (2022). Social capital I: measurement and associations with economic mobility. Nature 608: 108-121. doi:10.1038/s41586-022-04996-4

Provenance

Pipeline version: 1.0.0
Build script: book3/chapters/measures-of-hardship-compared/build.py (sha256 04cd3be028518dd5e3ebf3ea630c48d819a3f927e14dc1db4809f76dd1c22ab4)
Built on: 2026-10-03
Site commit: 16414b2c7257546a7042d0b1734657f208999f60

Inputs

File	Size (bytes)	SHA-256, first 1 MB	SHA-256, last 1 MB
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data/precinct/census_estimates/tract_2020_atlas.parquet	41,025,289	8cd40801ba81ac3d5870313f9e8772790afe7917f983dd24c15efc8719651ab8	01b796cc4b00f21457d93c96df76db6edfde80c66e1844919fb7510aecd5efe9
data/precinct/census_estimates/zcta_2020.parquet	4,608,929	560cabe4b643241fab4572f4e46599d64297eaa67f987c32ad235c55c045612b	f5f882de2008137295d09c69667751bddd476b861a49292ee4a4a3a3f22b0236
data/precinct/census_estimates/zcta_swing_atlas.parquet	11,850,164	ca87f58b5b27fc0ebd644d594a8b93971f85d40f95132ac641ffc84c5021684e	6db8ad81722c59d7fc7436e5563bfd33b9a60fe03aff344e763af8a25df38651
C:/Users/Vishal Singh/Box/birth_death/data/raw/social_capital_atlas/2022/social_capital_zip.csv	4,052,257	6e4fe2e4b37b666313dd90e8897df45fdc96285fb59c3aa425edcb0fac460c8e	8ad382b00cc90db64f8592e59177d6eb9e4e9c13476f888d024c7b3f95903510

Outputs

File	SHA-256
facts.json	cc3ff1cdc26f7eaed437edc430e49dcdd3104efee123fc8ead75fcd8f4d8b4d2
figures/chapter_specs.json	65f82478417b1a7c7bce01405134991af5c874a98624516ae0367f8e6f8a67ed
figures/control_ladder.json	dc656b3020df8a18933545ab0c994b7020fb98d1a395fdd7902f56bdf7957693
figures/demographic_content.json	3e1c8fe4a313dde678cd45d97b4e40d018cd2e10a200428f501830ecb2d44c94
figures/raw_vs_adjusted.json	accea50a6880784d4aa162900c15a078994e9b1e00f78222ce8a3f7e221e14f2
figures/robustness.json	b3719e979fbe5434b8d8e37347eb69ba8eec741a05bd221eb5d5adce68855f6c
figures/sample_counts.json	2e461986729f9afbb7d06f071e12516f35a44b539c841e30c515bfff6ed84ec3
figures/surface_check.json	79c77c6e74852ed6dd16d3692d5d97d40d272168d18ab3c2a975bde6bac5c122
figures/zip_measures.json	3d260e4405fb5e8af5a571b586130afe1f2af0ea64abac2d53680443f0f88d64
meta.json	dcfe47a5ec29e99fcba5035681996eac59cd6c84cf97d9c7591bc5055f0a20ec
refs.json	c522d0bd024ac5359e632dcba47b5b89186d6294efb6cfd2f3bb343e28b4d9af

Machine formats

Report (Markdown): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/measures-of-hardship-compared/report.md
Every estimate (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/measures-of-hardship-compared/facts.json
Table 1, figure "raw_vs_adjusted" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/measures-of-hardship-compared/figures/raw_vs_adjusted.json
Table 2, figure "sample_counts" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/measures-of-hardship-compared/figures/sample_counts.json
Table 3, figure "control_ladder" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/measures-of-hardship-compared/figures/control_ladder.json
Table 4, figure "demographic_content" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/measures-of-hardship-compared/figures/demographic_content.json
Table 5, figure "zip_measures" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/measures-of-hardship-compared/figures/zip_measures.json
Table 6, figure "surface_check" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/measures-of-hardship-compared/figures/surface_check.json
Table 7, figure "chapter_specs" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/measures-of-hardship-compared/figures/chapter_specs.json
Table 8, figure "robustness" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/measures-of-hardship-compared/figures/robustness.json
Index of every report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms.txt; all reports in one file: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms-full.txt

Identification

Principal estimates

Findings

One footing for every measure

Before controls, the measures disagree in sign

With controls, most coefficients are positive and smaller

Race and education move the coefficients most

Environmental burdens lose most of their association

The PLACES health measures share most of their variance with demographics

Deprivation reverses sign and low income rank holds

ZIP code areas add social capital and tax returns

The adjusted coefficient differs by surface

Other chapters use a different footing

The signs hold under the variations tried

What these data cannot show

Tables

Table 1. Raw associations with the Democratic vote split in sign across 24 hardship measures, and adjusted ones are smaller and mostly positive

Table 2. The Social Capital Atlas drops ZIP code areas that voted 40% Democratic against 53% for those kept, and missing controls drop tracts in the District of Columbia

Table 3. Race and education move the coefficients most, and density and state fixed effects move them less

Table 4. Race, education and density share 40% to 80% of the within-state variance of the PLACES health measures and 2% of the variance of toxic releases

Table 5. Friend clustering, volunteering and the unemployment compensation share change sign once the controls enter, while the earned income credit share keeps its raw sign

Table 6. The same measure gives raw coefficients within 1.5 points on tracts and ZIP code areas but adjusted ones up to 3.4 points apart, and up to 2.8 points apart without the college share

Table 7. Two existing chapters use a different outcome, sample, weights or controls, so their coefficients cannot be set beside the ones here

Table 8. Under each of 9 changes to the specification the adjusted sign agrees with the common specification for at least 21 of the 24 measures

All estimates

Definitions

Methods

What these data cannot show

References

Provenance

Machine formats