{
  "alt": "Dot chart in three panels for ten measures, one dot for tracts and one for ZIP code areas in each row. Without controls the two dots are close in every row. With the common specification the dots are further apart for several PLACES measures, and the sign differs between surfaces for some measures. With the college share left out the dots are closer again and every coefficient is negative on both surfaces.",
  "caption": "In the left panel the two surfaces nearly coincide, in the middle panel they separate for several health measures, and in the right panel, which leaves the college share out on both surfaces, they come closer again. Each dot is the coefficient of the Democratic share on one measure, with 95% intervals from state clusters; the middle panel holds race and ethnicity, education, density and state fixed and the right panel holds race and ethnicity, density and state fixed. The ZIP code college variable averages {fact:coll_mean_zip} of residents against {fact:coll_mean_tract} for the tract college share, and its definition is unresolved. The ZIP code estimates use every ZIP code area with more than {fact:vote_floor} votes, the Area Deprivation Index and the PLACES values.",
  "data": [
    {
      "estimate": -5.8632,
      "hi": -3.50879,
      "lo": -8.21762,
      "measure": "Area Deprivation Index rank",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": 3.89892,
      "hi": 5.22123,
      "lo": 2.5766,
      "measure": "Area Deprivation Index rank",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -3.62862,
      "hi": -2.06791,
      "lo": -5.18932,
      "measure": "Area Deprivation Index rank",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -7.14575,
      "hi": -5.15541,
      "lo": -9.13609,
      "measure": "Area Deprivation Index rank",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": 1.74805,
      "hi": 4.00095,
      "lo": -0.504857,
      "measure": "Area Deprivation Index rank",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -3.78131,
      "hi": -1.71363,
      "lo": -5.84899,
      "measure": "Area Deprivation Index rank",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": 0.220737,
      "hi": 1.5979,
      "lo": -1.15642,
      "measure": "Fair or poor health",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": 4.49071,
      "hi": 5.26914,
      "lo": 3.71228,
      "measure": "Fair or poor health",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -3.31917,
      "hi": -2.34169,
      "lo": -4.29666,
      "measure": "Fair or poor health",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -0.317468,
      "hi": 1.41121,
      "lo": -2.04614,
      "measure": "Fair or poor health",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": 2.65215,
      "hi": 3.67394,
      "lo": 1.63036,
      "measure": "Fair or poor health",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -5.21934,
      "hi": -4.06801,
      "lo": -6.37067,
      "measure": "Fair or poor health",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -0.112615,
      "hi": 1.29074,
      "lo": -1.51597,
      "measure": "Poor mental health",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": 3.07763,
      "hi": 3.56585,
      "lo": 2.58942,
      "measure": "Poor mental health",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -3.13213,
      "hi": -2.37933,
      "lo": -3.88492,
      "measure": "Poor mental health",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -1.49383,
      "hi": 0.106192,
      "lo": -3.09386,
      "measure": "Poor mental health",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": 1.34934,
      "hi": 2.53939,
      "lo": 0.159303,
      "measure": "Poor mental health",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -3.18367,
      "hi": -2.31036,
      "lo": -4.05699,
      "measure": "Poor mental health",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -6.3286,
      "hi": -4.16323,
      "lo": -8.49397,
      "measure": "Depression",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": 3.05869,
      "hi": 4.1385,
      "lo": 1.97888,
      "measure": "Depression",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -2.24222,
      "hi": -1.11822,
      "lo": -3.36622,
      "measure": "Depression",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -5.97824,
      "hi": -3.09673,
      "lo": -8.85975,
      "measure": "Depression",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": 3.82982,
      "hi": 5.56614,
      "lo": 2.0935,
      "measure": "Depression",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -0.726751,
      "hi": 1.07433,
      "lo": -2.52783,
      "measure": "Depression",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -1.66951,
      "hi": -0.121355,
      "lo": -3.21767,
      "measure": "Diabetes",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": 1.94947,
      "hi": 2.67991,
      "lo": 1.21904,
      "measure": "Diabetes",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -3.06731,
      "hi": -1.90219,
      "lo": -4.23243,
      "measure": "Diabetes",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -2.36096,
      "hi": -0.769505,
      "lo": -3.95242,
      "measure": "Diabetes",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -0.206175,
      "hi": 0.716466,
      "lo": -1.12882,
      "measure": "Diabetes",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -4.80799,
      "hi": -3.44758,
      "lo": -6.16841,
      "measure": "Diabetes",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -4.80225,
      "hi": -2.58581,
      "lo": -7.01868,
      "measure": "Obesity",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": 0.0364807,
      "hi": 1.57735,
      "lo": -1.50439,
      "measure": "Obesity",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -6.59478,
      "hi": -5.19575,
      "lo": -7.99382,
      "measure": "Obesity",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -6.04368,
      "hi": -3.97186,
      "lo": -8.1155,
      "measure": "Obesity",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -2.63367,
      "hi": -0.550089,
      "lo": -4.71726,
      "measure": "Obesity",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -6.77495,
      "hi": -5.14321,
      "lo": -8.40669,
      "measure": "Obesity",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -4.69694,
      "hi": -2.80953,
      "lo": -6.58434,
      "measure": "Current smoking",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": 3.34182,
      "hi": 4.12414,
      "lo": 2.55951,
      "measure": "Current smoking",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -4.82727,
      "hi": -3.99016,
      "lo": -5.66438,
      "measure": "Current smoking",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -6.18556,
      "hi": -4.36645,
      "lo": -8.00468,
      "measure": "Current smoking",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": 0.88999,
      "hi": 2.37759,
      "lo": -0.597614,
      "measure": "Current smoking",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -5.8655,
      "hi": -5.04689,
      "lo": -6.68412,
      "measure": "Current smoking",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -1.88446,
      "hi": -0.281833,
      "lo": -3.48709,
      "measure": "No leisure-time physical activity",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": 3.2867,
      "hi": 4.13113,
      "lo": 2.44227,
      "measure": "No leisure-time physical activity",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -4.73836,
      "hi": -3.78221,
      "lo": -5.69451,
      "measure": "No leisure-time physical activity",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -2.13505,
      "hi": -0.437555,
      "lo": -3.83255,
      "measure": "No leisure-time physical activity",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -0.15783,
      "hi": 0.91971,
      "lo": -1.23537,
      "measure": "No leisure-time physical activity",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -6.34823,
      "hi": -5.27286,
      "lo": -7.4236,
      "measure": "No leisure-time physical activity",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": 1.77116,
      "hi": 3.1309,
      "lo": 0.411418,
      "measure": "No health insurance",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": 7.58771,
      "hi": 8.97037,
      "lo": 6.20505,
      "measure": "No health insurance",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -2.86131,
      "hi": -0.641203,
      "lo": -5.08143,
      "measure": "No health insurance",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": 1.65721,
      "hi": 2.98182,
      "lo": 0.332605,
      "measure": "No health insurance",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": 6.0434,
      "hi": 8.54433,
      "lo": 3.54248,
      "measure": "No health insurance",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -5.68672,
      "hi": -3.78435,
      "lo": -7.58908,
      "measure": "No health insurance",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -10.3717,
      "hi": -8.94522,
      "lo": -11.7982,
      "measure": "Arthritis",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -0.125483,
      "hi": 0.384874,
      "lo": -0.63584,
      "measure": "Arthritis",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -3.95635,
      "hi": -2.85556,
      "lo": -5.05713,
      "measure": "Arthritis",
      "n": 80873,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "Tracts"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -10.7858,
      "hi": -9.15599,
      "lo": -12.4157,
      "measure": "Arthritis",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "No controls",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -1.53383,
      "hi": -0.642807,
      "lo": -2.42486,
      "measure": "Arthritis",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Common specification",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    },
    {
      "estimate": -4.85951,
      "hi": -3.48462,
      "lo": -6.23441,
      "measure": "Arthritis",
      "n": 29276,
      "specification": "Without the college share",
      "surface": "ZIP code areas"
    }
  ],
  "id": "surface_check",
  "notes": [
    "Tract and ZIP code area samples differ: ZIP code areas are fewer and include more sparsely populated places, so the comparison mixes the unit and the sample.",
    "The surfaces also differ in how the Area Deprivation Index is aggregated and in the PLACES release, so the unit is not the only difference.",
    "Estimates for the ZIP-only sample that also requires every Social Capital Atlas and IRS value differ from these by less than the surface difference."
  ],
  "source": "Precinct returns allocated to 2020 census tracts and ZIP code tabulation areas (Fekrazad 2025) with the ADI and PLACES values of the project atlases; 2020 presidential vote; weighted by votes in each unit",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "Tracts": "cat1",
      "ZIP code areas": "cat2"
    },
    "facet": "specification",
    "facetColumns": 3,
    "group": "surface",
    "hi": "hi",
    "legend": true,
    "lo": "lo",
    "reference": 0,
    "x": "estimate",
    "xDomain": [
      -14,
      10
    ],
    "xDomains": {
      "Common specification": [
        -6,
        10
      ],
      "No controls": [
        -14,
        5
      ],
      "Without the college share": [
        -10,
        3
      ]
    },
    "xLabel": "Democratic share, points per standard deviation of the measure",
    "y": "measure"
  },
  "subtitle": "Democratic share of the 2020 two-party presidential vote, points per standard deviation, Area Deprivation Index and nine PLACES measures, tracts and ZIP code areas",
  "title": "The same measure gives raw coefficients within {fact:surf_raw_max} points on tracts and ZIP code areas but adjusted ones up to {fact:surf_adj_max} points apart, and up to {fact:surf_nc_max} points apart without the college share",
  "type": "dot",
  "width": "full"
}