{
  "alt": "Dumbbell chart with one row for each of nine ZIP-only measures. Raw coefficients for friend clustering and the friend support ratio are the most negative; adjusted coefficients are near zero for most social capital rows and positive for volunteering, civic organizations and friend clustering.",
  "caption": "Of the {fact:n_zip_meas} ZIP-only measures, {fact:zip_adj_pos} have an adjusted interval above zero and {fact:zip_adj_neg} have one below zero. Each row plots two coefficients, the open dot with no controls and the filled dot with the common specification, with 95% intervals from state clusters. Social capital measures keep their published direction, so a higher value means more connection; tax-return measures are signed so that a higher value means more hardship.",
  "data": [
    {
      "adj_hi": 1.26029,
      "adj_lo": -3.08857,
      "adjusted": -0.914143,
      "group": "Social capital: Social Capital Atlas (higher means more connection)",
      "label": "Economic connectedness",
      "n": 18039,
      "raw": 0.394275,
      "raw_hi": 2.28217,
      "raw_lo": -1.49362
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": -0.0180573,
      "adj_lo": -3.66669,
      "adjusted": -1.84237,
      "group": "Social capital: Social Capital Atlas (higher means more connection)",
      "label": "Economic connectedness among group members",
      "n": 18039,
      "raw": 1.33061,
      "raw_hi": 3.02961,
      "raw_lo": -0.368387
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 2.11028,
      "adj_lo": 0.321631,
      "adjusted": 1.21595,
      "group": "Social capital: Social Capital Atlas (higher means more connection)",
      "label": "Friend clustering",
      "n": 18039,
      "raw": -9.13212,
      "raw_hi": -7.05899,
      "raw_lo": -11.2052
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": -1.05686,
      "adj_lo": -2.97245,
      "adjusted": -2.01465,
      "group": "Social capital: Social Capital Atlas (higher means more connection)",
      "label": "Friend support ratio",
      "n": 18039,
      "raw": -9.74412,
      "raw_hi": -7.81433,
      "raw_lo": -11.6739
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 4.58537,
      "adj_lo": 2.85978,
      "adjusted": 3.72258,
      "group": "Social capital: Social Capital Atlas (higher means more connection)",
      "label": "Volunteering rate",
      "n": 18039,
      "raw": -3.05218,
      "raw_hi": -1.48502,
      "raw_lo": -4.61934
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 2.71915,
      "adj_lo": 1.79429,
      "adjusted": 2.25672,
      "group": "Social capital: Social Capital Atlas (higher means more connection)",
      "label": "Civic organizations per capita",
      "n": 18039,
      "raw": -0.432799,
      "raw_hi": 0.445473,
      "raw_lo": -1.31107
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 3.02589,
      "adj_lo": 0.128959,
      "adjusted": 1.57743,
      "group": "Tax returns: IRS ZIP code data",
      "label": "Earned income credit share of returns",
      "n": 18039,
      "raw": 2.02641,
      "raw_hi": 3.82565,
      "raw_lo": 0.227161
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": -0.187114,
      "adj_lo": -2.28149,
      "adjusted": -1.2343,
      "group": "Tax returns: IRS ZIP code data",
      "label": "Unemployment compensation share of returns",
      "n": 18039,
      "raw": 4.80016,
      "raw_hi": 6.37054,
      "raw_lo": 3.22979
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": -0.350252,
      "adj_lo": -2.95665,
      "adjusted": -1.65345,
      "group": "Tax returns: IRS ZIP code data",
      "label": "Low mean adjusted gross income per return",
      "n": 18039,
      "raw": -2.67491,
      "raw_hi": -1.09761,
      "raw_lo": -4.2522
    }
  ],
  "id": "zip_measures",
  "notes": [
    "Low mean adjusted gross income per return is the mean with its sign reversed, so that a higher value means lower income.",
    "Each measure is cut at its 1st and 99th percentiles across ZIP code areas before it is standardized.",
    "Votes are estimates allocated from precincts to ZIP code tabulation areas, not reported counts."
  ],
  "source": "Precinct returns allocated to ZIP code tabulation areas (Fekrazad 2025) with the ADI, PLACES, Social Capital Atlas, IRS and ACS values of the project ZIP code atlas; 2020 presidential vote; weighted by ZIP code area votes",
  "spec": {
    "deltaLabel": "Change (points)",
    "group": "group",
    "hi1": "raw_hi",
    "hi2": "adj_hi",
    "label1": "No controls",
    "label2": "Common specification",
    "lo1": "raw_lo",
    "lo2": "adj_lo",
    "n1": "n",
    "n2": "n",
    "reference": 0,
    "sort": "data",
    "x1": "raw",
    "x2": "adjusted",
    "xDomain": [
      -14,
      8
    ],
    "xLabel": "Democratic share, points per standard deviation of the measure",
    "y": "label"
  },
  "subtitle": "Democratic share of the 2020 two-party presidential vote, points per standard deviation of each measure, ZIP code areas, raw and with race and ethnicity, education, density and state held fixed",
  "title": "Friend clustering, volunteering and the unemployment compensation share change sign once the controls enter, while the earned income credit share keeps its raw sign",
  "type": "dumbbell",
  "width": "wide"
}