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    Chapter 3.1

    Turnout

    In the November 2024 Current Population Survey, 79.6% of citizens aged twenty-five and older with a bachelor's degree reported voting, against 39.1% of those without a high school diploma.

    DraftFigures and numbers may change as the analysis is rebuilt.what is still being checked

    The comparison of CPS turnout rates with the voting-eligible-population turnout series is not yet made because that series was not among the data used.

    Among citizens twenty-five and older, 80%79.6% percentEstimandweighted share who reported voting (Census convention: nonresponse counted as not voting)Interval95% CI 79.0% to 80.2%n25,742WeightsVOSUPPWTPopulationcitizens 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or morePeriod2024 presidential electionSourceCPS Voting and Registration Supplement of those with a bachelor's degree reported voting in November 2024, against 39%39.1% percentEstimandweighted share who reported voting (Census convention: nonresponse counted as not voting)Interval95% CI 37.4% to 40.8%n4,008WeightsVOSUPPWTPopulationcitizens 25 and older without a high school diplomaPeriod2024 presidential electionSourceCPS Voting and Registration Supplement of those without a high school diploma. Across all citizens eighteen and older the share was 65%65.3% percentEstimandweighted share who reported voting (Census convention: nonresponse counted as not voting)Interval95% CI 64.9% to 65.7%n72,590WeightsVOSUPPWTPopulationcitizens 18 and olderPeriod2024 presidential electionSourceCPS Voting and Registration Supplement. These are answers to the Current Population Survey (CPS), in which a person tells a Census Bureau interviewer whether they voted, and a person who gives no answer is counted as not voting. Most of the distance between graduates and citizens without a diploma lies in who was registered, and less of it in whether registered citizens went on to vote.

    Most of the education gap arises at registration

    The chapter compares five pairs of groups in 2024. They are the oldest citizens and the youngest, graduates and those without a diploma, the highest and lowest thirds of family income, White and Black citizens, and White and Hispanic citizens. Turnout rose with age, education and family income, and Hispanic citizens had the lowest turnout of the racial and ethnic groups. Among citizens sixty-five and older, 75%74.7% percentEstimandweighted share who reported voting (Census convention: nonresponse counted as not voting)Interval95% CI 74.0% to 75.4%n20,905WeightsVOSUPPWTPopulationcitizens aged 65 and olderPeriod2024 presidential electionSourceCPS Voting and Registration Supplement reported voting, against 51%50.7% percentEstimandweighted share who reported voting (Census convention: nonresponse counted as not voting)Interval95% CI 49.7% to 51.8%n12,303WeightsVOSUPPWTPopulationcitizens aged 18 to 29Period2024 presidential electionSourceCPS Voting and Registration Supplement of those aged eighteen to twenty-nine. The education difference was the largest of the five, at 40.540.5 percentage pointsEstimanddifference in weighted turnout: citizens 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more minus those without a high school diplomaInterval95% CI 38.7 to 42.4n29,750WeightsVOSUPPWTPopulationcitizens 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more and without a high school diplomaPeriod2024SourceCPS Voting and Registration Supplement pointsPercentage pointThe unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused. between a bachelor's degree and no high school diploma. Chapter 3.4, The diploma divide covers how graduates and non-graduates vote; this chapter covers whether they vote.

    A turnout rate has two parts. A citizen first has to be registered, and a registered citizen then has to vote, so the share who vote is the registered share times the share of the registered who vote.A citizen counts as registered if the person voted or said they were registered. A person who did not answer the voting question counts as not registered unless the person reported being registered. In 2024 the registered share differed more across groups than the share of the registered who vote. Splitting each gap into a part that arises at registration and a part that arises among the registered puts 70%70% percent of the turnout differenceEstimandshare of the turnout difference that arises at registration (symmetric split of the product of the registered share and turnout among the registered), citizens 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more minus those without a high school diplomaInterval95% CI 67% to 73%n29,750WeightsVOSUPPWTPopulationcitizens 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more and without a high school diplomaPeriod2024SourceCPS Voting and Registration SupplementNoteSeeded percentile bootstrap over respondents (500 replicates); it omits the CPS design effect and is too narrow by an unknown factor. The share depends on the order of the split and on how nonresponse is coded. of the education gap at registration. The shares for age, income and the White minus Hispanic gap were 68%68% percent of the turnout differenceEstimandshare of the turnout difference that arises at registration (symmetric split of the product of the registered share and turnout among the registered), citizens 65 and older minus citizens 18 to 29Interval95% CI 65% to 71%n33,208WeightsVOSUPPWTPopulationcitizens aged 65 and older and citizens aged 18 to 29Period2024SourceCPS Voting and Registration SupplementNoteSeeded percentile bootstrap over respondents (500 replicates); it omits the CPS design effect and is too narrow by an unknown factor. The share depends on the order of the split and on how nonresponse is coded., 69%69% percent of the turnout differenceEstimandshare of the turnout difference that arises at registration (symmetric split of the product of the registered share and turnout among the registered), highest minus lowest third of family incomeInterval95% CI 67% to 71%n55,352WeightsVOSUPPWTPopulationcitizens in the highest and lowest thirds of family incomePeriod2024SourceCPS Voting and Registration SupplementNoteSeeded percentile bootstrap over respondents (500 replicates); it omits the CPS design effect and is too narrow by an unknown factor. The share depends on the order of the split and on how nonresponse is coded. and 70%70% percent of the turnout differenceEstimandshare of the turnout difference that arises at registration (symmetric split of the product of the registered share and turnout among the registered), White non-Hispanic minus Hispanic citizensInterval95% CI 67% to 74%n60,301WeightsVOSUPPWTPopulationWhite non-Hispanic and Hispanic citizensPeriod2024SourceCPS Voting and Registration SupplementNoteSeeded percentile bootstrap over respondents (500 replicates); it omits the CPS design effect and is too narrow by an unknown factor. The share depends on the order of the split and on how nonresponse is coded.. The split depends on which part is changed first; the share here is the midpoint of the two orders, and the report gives the range.

    Figure 1

    In 2024 turnout rose with age, education and family income, and Hispanic citizens had the lowest turnout of the racial and ethnic groups

    Percent of citizens who voted, who were registered, and who voted among the registered, by age, race and ethnicity, education and family income, 2024 (buttons show other elections); 95% intervals from the Kish effective sample size

    Voted (share of citizens)

    Registered (share of citizens)

    Voted (share of the registered)

    Percent of the group

    Show data
    Data for In 2024 turnout rose with age, education and family income, and Hispanic citizens had the lowest turnout of the racial and ethnic groups
    YearMeasureDimensionGroupPercent95% CI low95% CI highn respondents
    2024Voted (share of citizens)All citizensAll citizens65.364.965.772,590
    2024Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 18 to 2950.749.751.812,303
    2024Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 30 to 4461.961.062.716,754
    2024Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 45 to 6470.069.370.622,628
    2024Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 65 and older74.774.075.420,905
    2024Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityWhite70.570.070.952,237
    2024Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityBlack60.158.761.46,636
    2024Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityHispanic50.649.451.88,064
    2024Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityAsian57.655.959.43,853
    2024Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races57.354.560.21,800
    2024Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Less than high school39.137.440.84,008
    2024Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)High school graduate55.354.456.118,383
    2024Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Some college69.268.470.017,338
    2024Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more79.679.080.225,742
    2024Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeLowest third54.353.655.026,368
    2024Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeMiddle third67.266.667.835,210
    2024Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeHighest third74.573.975.128,984
    2024Registered (share of citizens)All citizensAll citizens73.673.374.072,590
    2024Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 18 to 2961.760.762.712,303
    2024Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 30 to 4471.971.272.716,754
    2024Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 45 to 6477.276.677.822,628
    2024Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 65 and older80.379.780.920,905
    2024Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityWhite77.777.278.152,237
    2024Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityBlack70.369.171.66,636
    2024Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityHispanic61.560.362.68,064
    2024Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityAsian66.264.567.83,853
    2024Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races68.966.271.51,800
    2024Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Less than high school51.449.653.14,008
    2024Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)High school graduate65.865.066.618,383
    2024Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Some college78.277.578.917,338
    2024Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more84.584.085.025,742
    2024Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeLowest third65.164.465.826,368
    2024Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeMiddle third74.874.275.435,210
    2024Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeHighest third81.080.481.528,984
    2024Voted (share of the registered)All citizensAll citizens88.888.589.154,231
    2024Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 18 to 2982.281.283.27,627
    2024Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 30 to 4486.085.386.712,233
    2024Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 45 to 6490.690.191.117,491
    2024Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 65 and older93.092.693.516,880
    2024Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityWhite90.790.491.140,754
    2024Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityBlack85.484.386.54,698
    2024Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityHispanic82.381.183.45,000
    2024Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityAsian87.185.688.62,546
    2024Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races83.280.785.81,233
    2024Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Less than high school76.174.078.22,115
    2024Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)High school graduate84.083.384.712,334
    2024Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Some college88.587.989.113,658
    2024Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more94.293.894.621,949
    2024Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeLowest third83.482.884.117,698
    2024Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeMiddle third89.889.490.326,950
    2024Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeHighest third92.091.692.523,573
    2022Voted (share of citizens)All citizensAll citizens52.251.852.673,083
    2022Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 18 to 2931.230.332.112,305
    2022Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 30 to 4446.946.147.816,909
    2022Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 45 to 6458.357.559.023,378
    2022Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 65 and older66.866.167.620,491
    2022Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityWhite57.657.258.152,569
    2022Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityBlack45.644.347.07,247
    2022Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityHispanic37.936.739.07,741
    2022Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityAsian40.238.542.03,755
    2022Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races42.940.045.71,771
    2022Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Less than high school29.227.730.84,251
    2022Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)High school graduate43.943.144.718,919
    2022Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Some college55.855.056.617,609
    2022Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more67.767.068.325,233
    2022Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeLowest third41.841.142.529,857
    2022Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeMiddle third53.352.754.035,033
    2022Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeHighest third61.560.862.225,708
    2022Registered (share of citizens)All citizensAll citizens69.168.769.573,083
    2022Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 18 to 2953.552.554.512,305
    2022Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 30 to 4468.067.268.816,909
    2022Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 45 to 6473.472.874.023,378
    2022Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 65 and older77.476.778.020,491
    2022Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityWhite73.272.873.652,569
    2022Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityBlack64.663.465.97,247
    2022Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityHispanic57.856.659.07,741
    2022Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityAsian59.858.061.53,755
    2022Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races63.760.966.41,771
    2022Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Less than high school48.747.050.44,251
    2022Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)High school graduate62.261.463.018,919
    2022Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Some college74.773.975.417,609
    2022Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more80.379.880.925,233
    2022Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeLowest third60.259.560.829,857
    2022Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeMiddle third70.970.271.535,033
    2022Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeHighest third76.375.776.925,708
    2022Voted (share of the registered)All citizensAll citizens75.575.176.051,451
    2022Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 18 to 2958.356.959.66,584
    2022Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 30 to 4469.068.070.011,601
    2022Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 45 to 6479.478.780.117,266
    2022Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 65 and older86.485.887.016,000
    2022Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityWhite78.778.379.238,831
    2022Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityBlack70.669.172.14,840
    2022Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityHispanic65.564.067.04,424
    2022Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityAsian67.365.169.52,232
    2022Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races67.363.970.71,124
    2022Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Less than high school60.057.662.42,106
    2022Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)High school graduate70.669.771.612,050
    2022Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Some college74.773.975.613,339
    2022Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more84.283.784.820,514
    2022Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeLowest third69.568.770.318,956
    2022Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeMiddle third75.374.675.925,614
    2022Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeHighest third80.579.981.219,807
    2020Voted (share of citizens)All citizensAll citizens66.866.467.181,898
    2020Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 18 to 2954.153.255.014,347
    2020Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 30 to 4464.463.665.119,144
    2020Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 45 to 6471.070.471.627,161
    2020Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 65 and older74.573.875.121,246
    2020Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityWhite70.970.571.459,555
    2020Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityBlack62.861.664.08,419
    2020Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityHispanic53.752.654.98,163
    2020Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityAsian59.357.661.13,860
    2020Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races58.755.961.51,901
    2020Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Less than high school43.742.145.25,000
    2020Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)High school graduate58.057.358.821,412
    2020Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Some college71.170.471.820,091
    2020Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more80.079.480.527,130
    2020Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeLowest third56.155.556.830,319
    2020Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeMiddle third67.767.168.333,174
    2020Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeHighest third76.575.977.136,140
    2020Registered (share of citizens)All citizensAll citizens72.772.373.081,898
    2020Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 18 to 2962.561.663.414,347
    2020Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 30 to 4471.570.872.219,144
    2020Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 45 to 6475.775.176.327,161
    2020Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 65 and older78.677.979.221,246
    2020Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityWhite76.576.176.959,555
    2020Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityBlack69.168.070.28,419
    2020Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityHispanic61.160.062.38,163
    2020Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityAsian63.561.865.23,860
    2020Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races68.766.171.31,901
    2020Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Less than high school53.151.654.75,000
    2020Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)High school graduate65.564.866.321,412
    2020Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Some college77.076.477.720,091
    2020Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more83.182.683.627,130
    2020Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeLowest third64.363.765.030,319
    2020Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeMiddle third73.472.873.933,174
    2020Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeHighest third80.379.880.936,140
    2020Voted (share of the registered)All citizensAll citizens91.991.692.159,993
    2020Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 18 to 2986.685.887.48,900
    2020Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 30 to 4490.089.490.613,745
    2020Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 45 to 6493.793.494.120,600
    2020Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 65 and older94.894.495.216,748
    2020Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityWhite92.892.593.045,350
    2020Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityBlack90.990.091.75,894
    2020Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityHispanic87.987.088.94,970
    2020Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityAsian93.592.494.62,476
    2020Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races85.583.187.81,303
    2020Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Less than high school82.280.683.92,686
    2020Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)High school graduate88.587.989.114,188
    2020Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Some college92.391.892.715,568
    2020Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more96.295.996.522,666
    2020Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeLowest third87.286.787.819,967
    2020Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeMiddle third92.391.992.724,506
    2020Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeHighest third95.294.995.528,675
    2018Voted (share of citizens)All citizensAll citizens53.453.153.888,749
    2018Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 18 to 2935.634.736.415,758
    2018Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 30 to 4448.848.049.620,821
    2018Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 45 to 6459.558.860.130,528
    2018Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 65 and older66.165.466.821,642
    2018Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityWhite57.557.057.964,983
    2018Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityBlack51.450.252.68,773
    2018Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityHispanic40.439.341.58,745
    2018Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityAsian40.438.742.14,100
    2018Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races45.542.948.22,148
    2018Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Less than high school30.028.731.36,074
    2018Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)High school graduate44.944.245.623,004
    2018Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Some college57.756.958.422,009
    2018Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more69.568.970.128,734
    2018Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeLowest third43.342.643.934,941
    2018Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeMiddle third54.153.554.735,374
    2018Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeHighest third62.962.363.536,649
    2018Registered (share of citizens)All citizensAll citizens66.966.567.288,749
    2018Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 18 to 2952.952.053.815,758
    2018Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 30 to 4464.363.665.120,821
    2018Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 45 to 6471.470.872.030,528
    2018Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 65 and older76.075.376.621,642
    2018Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityWhite71.070.671.464,983
    2018Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityBlack64.563.365.68,773
    2018Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityHispanic53.752.654.98,745
    2018Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityAsian52.650.854.34,100
    2018Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races62.059.464.52,148
    2018Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Less than high school47.245.848.66,074
    2018Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)High school graduate60.359.561.023,004
    2018Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Some college72.271.572.922,009
    2018Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more78.778.279.228,734
    2018Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeLowest third59.158.459.734,941
    2018Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeMiddle third67.266.667.835,374
    2018Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeHighest third74.473.975.036,649
    2018Voted (share of the registered)All citizensAll citizens79.979.580.360,349
    2018Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 18 to 2967.266.068.38,298
    2018Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 30 to 4475.975.076.713,571
    2018Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 45 to 6483.382.783.821,897
    2018Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 65 and older87.186.587.616,583
    2018Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityWhite80.980.581.346,399
    2018Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityBlack79.778.580.95,775
    2018Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityHispanic75.273.876.54,687
    2018Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityAsian76.874.878.82,151
    2018Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races73.570.676.41,337
    2018Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Less than high school63.661.665.62,930
    2018Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)High school graduate74.573.775.314,108
    2018Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Some college79.979.280.616,064
    2018Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more88.387.888.822,907
    2018Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeLowest third73.372.574.021,328
    2018Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeMiddle third80.580.081.124,401
    2018Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeHighest third84.684.085.127,344
    2016Voted (share of citizens)All citizensAll citizens61.461.061.793,794
    2016Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 18 to 2946.145.347.017,431
    2016Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 30 to 4458.858.059.521,923
    2016Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 45 to 6466.666.167.233,170
    2016Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 65 and older70.970.271.621,270
    2016Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityWhite65.364.965.769,164
    2016Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityBlack59.658.560.79,556
    2016Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityHispanic47.646.448.78,703
    2016Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityAsian48.947.250.74,079
    2016Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races50.247.652.72,292
    2016Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Less than high school37.336.038.66,908
    2016Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)High school graduate53.953.254.624,702
    2016Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Some college66.065.366.723,525
    2016Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more77.176.677.728,684
    2016Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeLowest third50.249.650.832,737
    2016Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeMiddle third62.561.963.142,544
    2016Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeHighest third71.470.972.035,668
    2016Registered (share of citizens)All citizensAll citizens70.370.070.793,794
    2016Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 18 to 2958.557.659.317,431
    2016Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 30 to 4468.667.969.321,923
    2016Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 45 to 6474.073.574.533,170
    2016Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 65 and older78.077.478.721,270
    2016Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityWhite73.973.574.369,164
    2016Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityBlack69.668.570.69,556
    2016Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityHispanic57.356.158.48,703
    2016Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityAsian56.554.858.34,079
    2016Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races63.060.565.52,292
    2016Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Less than high school49.247.850.56,908
    2016Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)High school graduate64.664.065.324,702
    2016Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Some college75.074.475.623,525
    2016Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more82.582.083.028,684
    2016Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeLowest third61.961.262.532,737
    2016Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeMiddle third71.170.571.642,544
    2016Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeHighest third78.177.678.635,668
    2016Voted (share of the registered)All citizensAll citizens87.387.087.666,881
    2016Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 18 to 2978.978.079.810,241
    2016Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 30 to 4485.685.086.315,171
    2016Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 45 to 6490.089.690.424,684
    2016Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 65 and older90.990.491.316,785
    2016Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityWhite88.388.088.751,372
    2016Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityBlack85.684.786.66,810
    2016Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityHispanic83.181.984.25,015
    2016Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityAsian86.685.088.22,262
    2016Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races79.677.082.21,422
    2016Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Less than high school75.974.377.53,498
    2016Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)High school graduate83.482.784.016,166
    2016Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Some college88.087.588.617,825
    2016Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more93.593.293.923,854
    2016Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeLowest third81.280.681.820,718
    2016Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeMiddle third87.987.588.430,683
    2016Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeHighest third91.591.191.927,965
    2012Voted (share of citizens)All citizensAll citizens61.861.562.294,311
    2012Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 18 to 2945.044.245.917,998
    2012Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 30 to 4459.558.860.322,680
    2012Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 45 to 6467.967.368.434,382
    2012Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 65 and older72.071.372.719,251
    2012Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityWhite64.163.764.571,460
    2012Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityBlack66.665.667.79,232
    2012Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityHispanic48.046.749.27,812
    2012Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityAsian47.145.249.03,640
    2012Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races55.352.857.92,167
    2012Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Less than high school41.240.042.57,512
    2012Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)High school graduate56.055.356.725,733
    2012Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Some college67.666.968.323,322
    2012Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more77.877.378.427,231
    2012Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeLowest third51.651.052.331,102
    2012Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeMiddle third62.161.562.737,036
    2012Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeHighest third71.771.172.341,910
    2012Registered (share of citizens)All citizensAll citizens71.270.971.594,311
    2012Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 18 to 2957.857.058.717,998
    2012Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 30 to 4470.269.570.922,680
    2012Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 45 to 6475.474.975.934,382
    2012Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 65 and older79.478.880.119,251
    2012Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityWhite73.773.474.171,460
    2012Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityBlack73.272.274.29,232
    2012Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityHispanic58.757.559.97,812
    2012Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityAsian56.154.358.03,640
    2012Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races67.965.570.32,167
    2012Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Less than high school54.553.255.77,512
    2012Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)High school graduate66.966.267.525,733
    2012Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Some college76.976.277.523,322
    2012Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more83.482.983.927,231
    2012Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeLowest third63.362.763.931,102
    2012Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeMiddle third71.370.871.937,036
    2012Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeHighest third78.978.479.541,910
    2012Voted (share of the registered)All citizensAll citizens86.886.587.168,167
    2012Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 18 to 2977.977.078.810,464
    2012Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 30 to 4484.884.185.416,044
    2012Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 45 to 6490.089.690.426,196
    2012Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 65 and older90.690.191.215,463
    2012Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityWhite87.086.787.353,258
    2012Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityBlack91.090.391.86,847
    2012Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityHispanic81.780.582.94,547
    2012Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityAsian83.982.185.72,054
    2012Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races81.579.184.01,461
    2012Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Less than high school75.774.377.24,129
    2012Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)High school graduate83.883.184.417,415
    2012Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Some college87.987.488.518,059
    2012Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more93.392.993.722,925
    2012Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeLowest third81.580.982.120,020
    2012Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeMiddle third87.086.687.526,583
    2012Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeHighest third90.890.491.232,994
    2008Voted (share of citizens)All citizensAll citizens63.663.364.092,360
    2008Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 18 to 2951.150.251.917,867
    2008Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 30 to 4461.861.162.523,057
    2008Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 45 to 6469.268.669.734,266
    2008Voted (share of citizens)AgeAges 65 and older70.369.571.117,170
    2008Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityWhite66.165.766.571,497
    2008Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityBlack65.264.166.38,607
    2008Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityHispanic49.948.651.16,925
    2008Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityAsian47.245.349.23,349
    2008Voted (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races57.554.760.21,982
    2008Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Less than high school41.640.442.88,467
    2008Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)High school graduate57.056.357.726,066
    2008Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Some college70.669.971.322,758
    2008Voted (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more79.378.779.924,625
    2008Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeLowest third57.056.357.727,450
    2008Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeMiddle third68.768.069.326,322
    2008Voted (share of citizens)Family incomeHighest third77.977.378.533,247
    2008Registered (share of citizens)All citizensAll citizens71.070.771.392,360
    2008Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 18 to 2961.160.361.917,867
    2008Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 30 to 4469.468.770.123,057
    2008Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 45 to 6474.974.475.434,266
    2008Registered (share of citizens)AgeAges 65 and older77.476.778.117,170
    2008Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityWhite73.573.173.971,497
    2008Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityBlack70.169.171.28,607
    2008Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityHispanic59.458.260.76,925
    2008Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityAsian55.053.056.93,349
    2008Registered (share of citizens)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races67.765.170.21,982
    2008Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Less than high school53.352.154.58,467
    2008Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)High school graduate66.165.466.726,066
    2008Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Some college77.176.477.722,758
    2008Registered (share of citizens)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more83.082.483.524,625
    2008Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeLowest third67.666.968.327,450
    2008Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeMiddle third76.575.977.126,322
    2008Registered (share of citizens)Family incomeHighest third83.482.883.933,247
    2008Voted (share of the registered)All citizensAll citizens89.689.489.966,700
    2008Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 18 to 2983.582.884.310,951
    2008Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 30 to 4489.188.589.616,222
    2008Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 45 to 6492.492.092.726,021
    2008Voted (share of the registered)AgeAges 65 and older90.890.391.413,506
    2008Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityWhite90.089.790.253,301
    2008Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityBlack93.092.293.76,119
    2008Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityHispanic84.082.885.24,090
    2008Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityAsian85.984.187.71,883
    2008Voted (share of the registered)Race and ethnicityOther or multiple races84.982.587.31,307
    2008Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Less than high school78.176.779.44,586
    2008Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)High school graduate86.385.886.917,531
    2008Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Some college91.691.292.117,689
    2008Voted (share of the registered)Education (25 and older)Bachelor's degree or more95.695.395.920,803
    2008Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeLowest third84.483.785.018,906
    2008Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeMiddle third89.889.390.320,261
    2008Voted (share of the registered)Family incomeHighest third93.593.193.927,640

    Read the colored education rows across the three panels. In the left panel, the share who voted, the no-diploma dot sits far to the left of the bachelor's dot. In the middle panel, the share registered, the two dots are at 51.4%51.4% percentEstimandweighted share registered (voted, or reported being registered; nonresponse counted as not registered)Interval95% CI 49.6% to 53.1%n4,008WeightsVOSUPPWTPopulationcitizens 25 and older without a high school diplomaPeriod2024 presidential electionSourceCPS Voting and Registration Supplement and 84.5%84.5% percentEstimandweighted share registered (voted, or reported being registered; nonresponse counted as not registered)Interval95% CI 84.0% to 85.0%n25,742WeightsVOSUPPWTPopulationcitizens 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or morePeriod2024 presidential electionSourceCPS Voting and Registration Supplement, and in the right panel, the share of the registered who voted, they draw closer together. The grey rows are all citizens and the age, race and ethnicity, and income groups, and for them too the spread is narrowest in the right panel. Each dot is a weighted share of citizens in 2024 with its 95% interval, and the buttons show other elections. Values in Table 2.

    Note: Turnout follows the Census Bureau convention: a respondent who did not answer the voting question counts as not voting.Note: Education is shown for citizens 25 and older and is missing for younger adults. Income groups are within-year thirds of the family-income bracket distribution of citizens.Note: Intervals are model based (Kish effective sample size, normal approximation) and leave out the clustering and stratification of the CPS design, so they are narrower than design-based intervals by an unknown factor.Note: The 2022 and 2018 buttons show midterm elections and the others show presidential elections.Source: Current Population Survey, November Voting and Registration Supplement (IPUMS-CPS), 2024, 2022, 2020, 2018, 2016, 2012 and 2008; weighted (VOSUPPWT)

    A survey of what people say they did

    The data are the Voting and Registration Supplement, a set of questions the Census Bureau adds to its monthly household survey every other November. The harmonized extract from IPUMS holds about 1,400,0001,422,311 respondentsEstimandcount of person recordsWeightsnone (count of records)Populationcitizens 18 and olderPeriod1994 to 2024SourceCPS Voting and Registration Supplement citizens interviewed from 1994 to 2024, and every estimate here is weightedSurvey weightsNumbers that scale each respondent so the sample matches the population on known traits such as age, race, education and region. A weighted average counts a respondent with a large weight for more than one with a small weight. so that the sample matches the population. Respondents say whether they voted, and no report is checked against a record. A person who does not answer counts as not voting, the Census Bureau's convention, and in 2024 14%14.1% percentEstimandweighted share who did not answer the voting question (refused, did not know, no response)n72,590WeightsVOSUPPWTPopulationcitizens 18 and olderPeriod2024SourceCPS Voting and Registration Supplement of citizens did not answer [1]. The citizen series starts in 1994 because the extract records citizenship only from that year. The only series that runs from 1976 on one definition puts every adult resident in the denominator and counts noncitizens as not voting. A denominator that includes people who cannot vote misreads a trend in turnout [2]. The Census Bureau's own tables carry a citizen series for earlier years, from an item the extract lacks, and that series puts 1992 above 2020 and 2024. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.

    One gap depends on how nonresponse is coded

    Nonresponse is not spread evenly across groups. In 2024 citizens aged eighteen to twenty-nine, Black citizens and Hispanic citizens did not answer the voting question more often than citizens sixty-five and older or White citizens. Part of the registration component therefore reflects who answers the survey. Dropping the nonrespondents instead of counting them as nonvoters leaves four of the five registration shares above an even split and moves the fifth. Among respondents only, the registration part of the White minus Black gap was 44%44% percent of the turnout differenceEstimandshare of the turnout difference that arises at registration among respondents only (nonrespondents dropped from the registered share and from turnout), White non-Hispanic minus Black non-Hispanic citizensn51,535WeightsVOSUPPWTPopulationWhite and Black non-Hispanic citizens who answered the voting questionPeriod2024SourceCPS Voting and Registration SupplementNoteA point estimate without an interval. in 2024, against 62%62% percent of the turnout differenceEstimandshare of the turnout difference that arises at registration (symmetric split of the product of the registered share and turnout among the registered), White non-Hispanic minus Black non-Hispanic citizensInterval95% CI 55% to 68%n58,873WeightsVOSUPPWTPopulationWhite and Black non-Hispanic citizensPeriod2024SourceCPS Voting and Registration SupplementNoteSeeded percentile bootstrap over respondents (500 replicates); it omits the CPS design effect and is too narrow by an unknown factor. The share depends on the order of the split and on how nonresponse is coded. under the Census convention. The White minus Black turnout gap itself is also smaller among respondents than under the convention. The age, income and Hispanic gaps stay close to their Census-convention values. Whether registration accounts for most of the White minus Black gap therefore turns on a coding choice, and the report gives both codings.

    Most 2020 and 2024 voters voted by mail or early

    The supplement also asks everyone who reports voting how they voted, in person or by mail, and from 2004 whether they voted on Election Day or before it. In 2024, 60%59.7% percentEstimandweighted share of all persons who reported voting, by mail or in person before Election DayInterval95% CI 59.2% to 60.2%n48,387WeightsVOSUPPWTPopulationpersons who votedPeriod2024 presidential electionSourceCPS Voting and Registration Supplement of those who reported voting had voted by mail or in person before Election Day, and in 2020 the share was 69%69.0% percentEstimandweighted share of all persons who reported voting, by mail or in person before Election DayInterval95% CI 68.5% to 69.4%n55,170WeightsVOSUPPWTPopulationpersons who votedPeriod2020 presidential electionSourceCPS Voting and Registration Supplement. Between the two elections the mail share fell and the early in-person share rose. The Election Day share rose as well but stayed below its 2016 level. Voters aged sixty-five and older used the mail more than those aged eighteen to twenty-four in both years. The Census Bureau's report on 2020 describes the rise as a response to changes in election procedures during the pandemic [3]. The Election Assistance Commission's tabulation of administrative records agrees with the survey on the mail and Election Day shares for 2020 [4]. It publishes higher early in-person shares than the survey in both 2020 and 2024 [5], so the survey's split between early and Election Day voting should be read as approximate.

    Figure 2

    Voting by mail rose to 43.0% of voters in 2020 and fell to 29.0% in 2024, while voting in person before Election Day reached 30.7%

    Percent of persons who reported voting, by method and timing, presidential years 1996 to 2024 (the second button shows midterm years); 95% intervals from the Kish effective sample size

    Show data
    Data for Voting by mail rose to 43.0% of voters in 2020 and fell to 29.0% in 2024, while voting in person before Election Day reached 30.7%
    YearElection typeMethodShare of voters (%)95% CI low95% CI highn respondents
    2004PresidentialIn person on Election Day79.078.779.463,052
    2008PresidentialIn person on Election Day68.968.569.359,975
    2012PresidentialIn person on Election Day66.866.467.259,597
    2016PresidentialIn person on Election Day59.559.160.058,533
    2020PresidentialIn person on Election Day30.429.930.855,170
    2024PresidentialIn person on Election Day39.639.140.148,387
    2004PresidentialIn person before Election Day7.87.58.063,052
    2008PresidentialIn person before Election Day14.213.914.659,975
    2012PresidentialIn person before Election Day14.213.914.559,597
    2016PresidentialIn person before Election Day18.918.619.358,533
    2020PresidentialIn person before Election Day26.025.626.455,170
    2024PresidentialIn person before Election Day30.730.331.248,387
    1996PresidentialBy mail7.87.68.150,025
    2000PresidentialBy mail10.19.810.450,010
    2004PresidentialBy mail12.912.613.263,052
    2008PresidentialBy mail16.416.016.759,975
    2012PresidentialBy mail18.518.118.859,597
    2016PresidentialBy mail20.920.521.358,533
    2020PresidentialBy mail43.042.543.455,170
    2024PresidentialBy mail29.028.529.448,387
    2006MidtermIn person on Election Day80.179.780.547,175
    2010MidtermIn person on Election Day73.072.573.544,802
    2014MidtermIn person on Election Day68.467.968.942,559
    2018MidtermIn person on Election Day59.659.160.148,337
    2022MidtermIn person on Election Day49.548.950.139,280
    2006MidtermIn person before Election Day5.85.66.047,175
    2010MidtermIn person before Election Day8.38.08.644,802
    2014MidtermIn person before Election Day10.29.910.542,559
    2018MidtermIn person before Election Day16.616.217.048,337
    2022MidtermIn person before Election Day18.017.618.539,280
    1998MidtermBy mail8.48.18.739,512
    2002MidtermBy mail10.610.310.947,897
    2006MidtermBy mail13.713.414.147,175
    2010MidtermBy mail18.117.718.544,802
    2014MidtermBy mail20.820.421.342,559
    2018MidtermBy mail23.122.723.648,337
    2022MidtermBy mail31.831.232.339,280

    Follow the two colored lines. The mail line climbs to its peak in 2020 and falls back in 2024, while the early in-person line rises from 2004 to 2024. The grey line is voting in person on Election Day, which falls from 2004 to 2020 and rises in 2024 while staying below its 2016 level. Each point is a weighted share of persons who reported voting, with its 95% interval, and the three shares fall short of the whole because voters who did not know or refused are not plotted. Values in Table 8.

    Note: Presidential years and midterm years are separate views; the default is presidential years.Note: The shares for 2020 and 2024 match the Census Bureau tabulations of the same supplement to the printed decimal; the checks are listed in the methods note. The Election Assistance Commission publishes administrative percentages that do not sum to the whole and give higher early in-person shares than the survey in 2020 and 2024, while its counts of early in-person ballots agree with the survey's weighted counts within a few percent; the methods note gives both.Note: Intervals are model based (Kish effective sample size, normal approximation) and leave out the clustering and stratification of the CPS design, so they are narrower than design-based intervals by an unknown factor.Source: Current Population Survey, November Voting and Registration Supplement (IPUMS-CPS), 1996 to 2024 (timing from 2004); weighted (VOSUPPWT)

    The survey count against the ballots counted

    Surveys of reported turnout run above official turnout, and over-reporting is more common in some groups than in others [6]. The chapter sets the weighted number of adults who reported voting against the ballots counted for president in each presidential year, a full count. The survey count ran above the ballot count in every election from 1976 to 2000 and was within 3%3% percent of ballots counted for presidentEstimandlargest absolute difference between the CPS count of reported voters and the certified presidential totalWeightsVOSUPPWTPopulationvoters in the CPS estimate, all residents 18 and olderPeriod2004 to 2024 presidential electionsSourceCPS Voting and Registration Supplement of it in every election from 2004 to 2024, below it in 2020. Two things push in opposite directions. People who say they voted when they did not raise the count, nonrespondents counted as nonvoters lower it, and nonresponse rose from 2004 to 2020. The narrowing is consistent with that rise, but the data do not test it, and a comparison of counts does not test the CPS denominator. The over-reporters in the validated-vote study cited above were more often the better educated, so the education gradient and the registered shares of graduates may be overstated by an amount the data do not give. The gaps between groups are associations across groups in one survey year. They describe who votes, and they do not show that a degree or an income changes anyone's probability of voting.

    Figure 3

    The CPS count of reported voters exceeded the ballots counted for president by 6.0% to 11.6% through 2000 and was within 3% of them from 2004 to 2024

    Millions of persons: ballots counted for president against the CPS weighted number of adults 18 and older who reported voting, presidential years 1976 to 2024; the CPS interval is the 95% interval from the Kish effective sample size

    • Ballots counted for president
    • CPS reported voters
    Show data
    Data for The CPS count of reported voters exceeded the ballots counted for president by 6.0% to 11.6% through 2000 and was within 3% of them from 2004 to 2024
    ElectionBallots counted for president (millions)CPS reported voters (millions)95% CI low (millions)95% CI high (millions)n respondents
    197681.686.786.287.289,090
    198086.594.894.395.3123,591
    198492.7101.9101.3102.4110,115
    198891.6102.2101.6102.9102,945
    1992104.6113.4112.8114.0105,987
    199696.4105.0104.3105.789,609
    2000105.6111.9111.2112.788,884
    2004122.3125.7125.0126.5103,696
    2008131.4131.1130.4131.999,556
    2012129.1132.9132.1133.8101,568
    2016136.8137.5136.7138.4100,946
    2020158.5154.6153.7155.687,589
    2024155.4154.3153.3155.378,650

    In every election through 2000 the CPS dot sits to the right of the ring, above the count, and from 2004 the two are close. In 2020 the dot sits to the left of the ring, below the count. The ring is the number of ballots with a presidential vote, a full count with no interval. The dot is the weighted number of adults who reported voting in the CPS, with its 95% interval. Values in Table 9.

    Note: The ballots counted for president are full counts and have no interval. The CPS interval treats the adult population total as fixed and uses the Kish interval on the share who voted.Note: The election column names the presidential election year.Source: Current Population Survey, November Voting and Registration Supplement (IPUMS-CPS), 1976 to 2024, weighted (VOSUPPWT); MIT Election Data and Science Lab state presidential returns, 1976 to 2024, full counts

    What this survey cannot tell you

    The CPS reports what people say, and the extract has no validated vote, so the amount of over-reporting in any group is unknown. The supplements interview different people each time, so they cannot say whether a group's turnout changed because its members changed their behavior or because the group's composition changed. Citizens are not the same as eligible voters: the citizen count includes people barred by a conviction or by residence rules and leaves out citizens in institutions and abroad. Chapter 3.2, The two coalitions compares the voters with all eligible adults, a different question from the rates here. The intervals treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample and leave out the clustering and stratification of the CPS design, so every interval is too narrow by an unknown factor.


    Go deeper

    • The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
    • Tables: every figure of the report as a table.

    Data sources

    • CPS Voting and Registration SupplementIPUMS-CPS November Voting and Registration Supplement, 25 biennial supplements 1976-2024; citizens from 1994Years: 1976-2024 (25 November samples, biennial, even years) · Weights: VOSUPPWT (supplement person weight) · License: IPUMS CPS conditions of use: a free extract after registration, no fee may be charged for the data, IPUMS must be cited, and publications are to be added to the IPUMS bibliography. The underlying Census Bureau data are public domain.
    • State presidential returnsState presidential returns 1976-2024, used only for the certified national total of ballots counted for presidentYears: 1976-2024 (13 elections) · Weights: none (full counts) · License: See the provider's terms of use.
    • ANES Cumulative Data FileCumulative Data File 1976-2024, self-reported turnout in presidential years, as a comparison of levelsYears: 1948-2024 (33 study years; even years only after 2004; no 2006, 2010 or 2014 study) · Weights: weight_postelection (VCF9999) · License: Free download after accepting the ANES terms of use; cite the release.

    All data sources

    References

    1. Hur, Aram; Achen, Christopher H. (2013). Coding Voter Turnout Responses in the Current Population Survey. Public Opinion Quarterly 77(4): 985-993. doi:10.1093/poq/nft042
    2. McDonald, Michael P.; Popkin, Samuel L. (2001). The Myth of the Vanishing Voter. American Political Science Review 95(4): 963-974. doi:10.1017/S0003055400400134
    3. Fabina, Jacob; Scherer, Zach (2022). Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2020. U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports P20-585. www.census.gov/library/publications/2022/demo/p20-585.html
    4. U.S. Election Assistance Commission (2021). Election Administration and Voting Survey 2020 Comprehensive Report. A Report from the U.S. Election Assistance Commission to the 117th Congress. www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/document_library/files/2020_EAVS_Report_Final_508c.pdf
    5. U.S. Election Assistance Commission (2025). Election Administration and Voting Survey 2024 Comprehensive Report. A Report from the U.S. Election Assistance Commission to the 119th Congress. www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/2025-07/2024_EAVS_Report_508.pdf
    6. Bernstein, Robert; Chadha, Anita; Montjoy, Robert (2001). Overreporting Voting: Why It Happens and Why It Matters. Public Opinion Quarterly 65(1): 22-44. doi:10.1086/320036

    How to cite

    @misc{singh2026turnout,
      author = {Singh, Vishal},
      title = {Turnout},
      year = {2026},
      url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/turnout},
      note = {In The Public Mind. Published 3 October 2026.}
    }