Reading path
Start with the map
5 chapters in reading order. A path is a way through the book that follows one question; every chapter also stands alone.
- 1Nationalization of the county vote
Chapter 10.1 in Part X, The nationalized map
Counties moved more nearly in step in 2020 to 2024 than in any other pair of presidential elections since 1868, with a vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings of 4.5 points against 5.0 in 2008 to 2012, the next lowest.
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- 2Distance from the national vote, 1868 to 2024
Chapter 10.2 in Part X, The nationalized map
The share of two-party votes cast in counties at least 20 points from the national margin rose from 25.5% in 1976 to 56.5% in 2024, and every region is now above 50%, as only the South was in 1904.
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- 3Precincts within counties
Chapter 11.1 in Part XI, Below the county line
In 2024, 65.0% of the two-party presidential votes in the sample were cast in precincts decided by 20 points or more, against 57.2% in counties decided by that margin and 56.6% in a simulation that assigns voters to precincts at random.
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- 4Education, ethnicity and the county shift, 2016 to 2024
Chapter 12.7 in Part XII, Demographic axes of the vote
In 2020 to 2024, counties with more Hispanic residents moved further toward the Republicans than other counties did (vote-weighted correlation −0.66, against +0.45 in 2012 to 2016), while the correlation with college share fell from +0.69 to +0.02.
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- 5Party and place
Chapter 15.1 in Part XV, Place and opinion
Across 12 policy issues, Democrats and Republicans in the same kind of deep county differ by 43.1 points in the share taking the Democratic side, 7.6 times the 5.6-point difference between deep-blue and deep-red counties within a party.
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