Volume 1Labels, sorting and partisan feeling

Party identification and ideological labels drew closer together in American surveys. The volume asks what the labels contain, in the United States and about 100 countries, how the alignment changed across birth cohorts, and how it differs from partisans' feelings toward the other party.

Volume 2Coalitions and political differences

Participation, group coalitions, issues and attitudes toward institutions and democracy, 1948 to 2024. Party gaps on these measures differ in size and timing, and some reverse with control of the presidency, so no single trend describes them.

Volume 3Votes, giving and places

Election returns, donor records and county data count different populations at different scales. The volume follows the vote from counties to precincts and down the ballot, compares donors with voters, and returns from places to the people who live in them.

Reading path

Start with the map

5 chapters in reading order. A path is a way through the book that follows one question; every chapter also stands alone.

1
Nationalization of the county vote
Chapter 6.1 in Part VI, Election results at different scales
Counties moved more nearly in step in 2020 to 2024 than in any other pair of presidential elections since 1868, with a vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings of 4.5 points against 5.0 in 2008 to 2012, the next lowest.
DraftPlacescounty-returns
2
Distance from the national vote, 1868 to 2024
Chapter 6.2 in Part VI, Election results at different scales
The share of two-party votes cast in counties at least 20 points from the national margin rose from 25.5% in 1976 to 56.5% in 2024.
DraftPlacescounty-returns
3
Precincts within counties
Chapter 6.3 in Part VI, Election results at different scales
In 2024, 65.0% of two-party presidential votes in the sample were cast in precincts decided by 20 points or more, against 57.2% in counties decided by that margin.
DraftPlacesprecinct
4
Education, ethnicity and the county shift, 2016 to 2024
Chapter 8.2 in Part VIII, Places and the people in them
In 2020 to 2024, counties with more Hispanic residents moved further toward the Republicans than other counties did, a vote-weighted correlation of −0.66 with the swing, against +0.45 in 2012 to 2016.
DraftPlacescounty-returnscounty-demographicsces
5
Party and place
Chapter 8.3 in Part VIII, Places and the people in them
Across 12 policy issues in 2013 to 2021, Democrats and Republicans in the same kind of county differ by 43.1 points, and one party's members in deep-blue and deep-red counties differ by 5.6 points.
DraftIndividualscescounty-returnsanes

All chapters