{
  "alt": "Five small line charts, one for each behavior, of the yearly difference between the association of coldness toward the other party and the association of warmth toward the own party, with 95% intervals and a reference line at zero. The points wander on both sides of zero before the 1990s and are above zero in the last four election years in every panel, and the intervals are wide in every panel.",
  "caption": "The yearly differences scatter around zero before the 1990s and are positive in every panel in 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024. The interval lies above zero in {fact:n_yr_pos} of {fact:n_yr} yearly estimates, all from 1992 on, and below zero in {fact:n_yr_neg}, all before 1998. Each point is the difference between the coldness and warmth coefficients of a linear probability model fitted to one year, with a 95% interval. Behaviors that the ANES did not ask in a year, and years with fewer than {fact:floor_year} respondents, have no point. Panels share the vertical scale. The per-decade rises in the title come from a model that lets both coefficients change linearly with time; the intervals for the straight ticket and for campaign activity are given in the text.",
  "data": [
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 1.44223,
      "diff_conf_low": -2.55298,
      "diff_estimate": -0.555376,
      "n": 773,
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.25863,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.659732,
      "diff_estimate": 0.79945,
      "n": 1230,
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 0.952741,
      "diff_conf_low": -2.2629,
      "diff_estimate": -0.655079,
      "n": 1087,
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 1.45885,
      "diff_conf_low": -1.03059,
      "diff_estimate": 0.214131,
      "n": 1237,
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "diff_conf_high": -0.69037,
      "diff_conf_low": -4.24011,
      "diff_estimate": -2.46524,
      "n": 979,
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 1.29894,
      "diff_conf_low": -2.57717,
      "diff_estimate": -0.639114,
      "n": 1026,
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 1.3687,
      "diff_conf_low": -3.14643,
      "diff_estimate": -0.888867,
      "n": 754,
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.13894,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.82938,
      "diff_estimate": 0.654778,
      "n": 1404,
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 1.37214,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.757568,
      "diff_estimate": 0.307287,
      "n": 3838,
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 1.91307,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.0527743,
      "diff_estimate": 0.930148,
      "n": 2381,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.04445,
      "diff_conf_low": 0.259261,
      "diff_estimate": 1.15185,
      "n": 5580,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 1.43609,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.486381,
      "diff_estimate": 0.474854,
      "n": 3813,
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 1.86913,
      "diff_conf_low": -2.94814,
      "diff_estimate": -0.539506,
      "n": 856,
      "year": 1978
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 1.35567,
      "diff_conf_low": -3.24987,
      "diff_estimate": -0.947098,
      "n": 765,
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.70474,
      "diff_conf_low": -2.07754,
      "diff_estimate": 0.313601,
      "n": 654,
      "year": 1982
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.92972,
      "diff_conf_low": -1.24458,
      "diff_estimate": 0.842571,
      "n": 1069,
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 1.30577,
      "diff_conf_low": -2.94719,
      "diff_estimate": -0.820707,
      "n": 895,
      "year": 1986
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.84839,
      "diff_conf_low": -1.38416,
      "diff_estimate": 0.732117,
      "n": 958,
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.62253,
      "diff_conf_low": -1.34952,
      "diff_estimate": 0.636506,
      "n": 733,
      "year": 1990
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 0.847116,
      "diff_conf_low": -2.62842,
      "diff_estimate": -0.890653,
      "n": 1248,
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 1.42787,
      "diff_conf_low": -3.15668,
      "diff_estimate": -0.864402,
      "n": 878,
      "year": 1994
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.40382,
      "diff_conf_low": -2.0439,
      "diff_estimate": 0.179957,
      "n": 964,
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 5.99794,
      "diff_conf_low": 0.558314,
      "diff_estimate": 3.27813,
      "n": 516,
      "year": 1998
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 3.03483,
      "diff_conf_low": -1.82719,
      "diff_estimate": 0.603818,
      "n": 836,
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 3.47147,
      "diff_conf_low": -1.64331,
      "diff_estimate": 0.914079,
      "n": 664,
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.29753,
      "diff_conf_low": -1.80891,
      "diff_estimate": 0.244313,
      "n": 1165,
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.57615,
      "diff_conf_low": 0.262069,
      "diff_estimate": 1.41911,
      "n": 3321,
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.8288,
      "diff_conf_low": 0.0770216,
      "diff_estimate": 1.45291,
      "n": 2147,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 3.28989,
      "diff_conf_low": 1.26423,
      "diff_estimate": 2.27706,
      "n": 4929,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "diff_conf_high": 1.69089,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.465271,
      "diff_estimate": 0.61281,
      "n": 3515,
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.12572,
      "diff_conf_low": -2.57926,
      "diff_estimate": -0.226768,
      "n": 683,
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "diff_conf_high": 3.65168,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.702014,
      "diff_estimate": 1.47483,
      "n": 1035,
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "diff_conf_high": 3.10598,
      "diff_conf_low": -1.25522,
      "diff_estimate": 0.92538,
      "n": 944,
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.32894,
      "diff_conf_low": -1.31947,
      "diff_estimate": 0.504738,
      "n": 1043,
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "diff_conf_high": 0.641741,
      "diff_conf_low": -4.11319,
      "diff_estimate": -1.73572,
      "n": 878,
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "diff_conf_high": 4.85347,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.151236,
      "diff_estimate": 2.35112,
      "n": 815,
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "diff_conf_high": 3.02809,
      "diff_conf_low": -1.95316,
      "diff_estimate": 0.537464,
      "n": 654,
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.91103,
      "diff_conf_low": -1.53868,
      "diff_estimate": 0.686172,
      "n": 1138,
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.71094,
      "diff_conf_low": 0.494207,
      "diff_estimate": 1.60257,
      "n": 3239,
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.54587,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.277525,
      "diff_estimate": 1.13417,
      "n": 1987,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.7747,
      "diff_conf_low": 0.67703,
      "diff_estimate": 1.72586,
      "n": 4793,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "diff_conf_high": 1.53497,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.457563,
      "diff_estimate": 0.538705,
      "n": 3416,
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.97608,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.682679,
      "diff_estimate": 1.1467,
      "n": 1722,
      "year": 1978
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "diff_conf_high": 3.20485,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.494373,
      "diff_estimate": 1.35524,
      "n": 1156,
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "diff_conf_high": -1.14864,
      "diff_conf_low": -5.58114,
      "diff_estimate": -3.36489,
      "n": 1174,
      "year": 1982
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "diff_conf_high": 0.445761,
      "diff_conf_low": -2.99206,
      "diff_estimate": -1.27315,
      "n": 1673,
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "diff_conf_high": -1.153,
      "diff_conf_low": -4.67545,
      "diff_estimate": -2.91422,
      "n": 1796,
      "year": 1986
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "diff_conf_high": 0.635482,
      "diff_conf_low": -3.08158,
      "diff_estimate": -1.22305,
      "n": 1515,
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "diff_conf_high": 0.268893,
      "diff_conf_low": -3.0282,
      "diff_estimate": -1.37965,
      "n": 1656,
      "year": 1990
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "diff_conf_high": 4.32593,
      "diff_conf_low": 1.59834,
      "diff_estimate": 2.96214,
      "n": 1911,
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "diff_conf_high": 3.07225,
      "diff_conf_low": -1.36863,
      "diff_estimate": 0.851813,
      "n": 1567,
      "year": 1994
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "diff_conf_high": 1.15677,
      "diff_conf_low": -3.20549,
      "diff_estimate": -1.02436,
      "n": 1373,
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "diff_conf_high": 4.0475,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.83426,
      "diff_estimate": 1.60662,
      "n": 1102,
      "year": 1998
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.26749,
      "diff_conf_low": -2.853,
      "diff_estimate": -0.292752,
      "n": 1325,
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "diff_conf_high": 7.18964,
      "diff_conf_low": 1.9542,
      "diff_estimate": 4.57192,
      "n": 934,
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "diff_conf_high": 0.865247,
      "diff_conf_low": -2.48209,
      "diff_estimate": -0.808421,
      "n": 1798,
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "diff_conf_high": 3.58015,
      "diff_conf_low": 1.28029,
      "diff_estimate": 2.43022,
      "n": 4747,
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.43107,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.143027,
      "diff_estimate": 1.14402,
      "n": 3130,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.58178,
      "diff_conf_low": 0.503422,
      "diff_estimate": 1.5426,
      "n": 6498,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.45813,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.268382,
      "diff_estimate": 1.09488,
      "n": 4601,
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.99791,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.538213,
      "diff_estimate": 1.22985,
      "n": 1719,
      "year": 1978
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "diff_conf_high": 3.27472,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.892598,
      "diff_estimate": 1.19106,
      "n": 1149,
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "diff_conf_high": 1.10901,
      "diff_conf_low": -3.20507,
      "diff_estimate": -1.04803,
      "n": 1171,
      "year": 1982
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.39869,
      "diff_conf_low": -1.5006,
      "diff_estimate": 0.449046,
      "n": 1627,
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "diff_conf_high": 0.825869,
      "diff_conf_low": -2.50325,
      "diff_estimate": -0.838689,
      "n": 1777,
      "year": 1986
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "diff_conf_high": 1.18001,
      "diff_conf_low": -2.56377,
      "diff_estimate": -0.69188,
      "n": 1509,
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "diff_conf_high": 1.19745,
      "diff_conf_low": -1.70016,
      "diff_estimate": -0.251352,
      "n": 1654,
      "year": 1990
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "diff_conf_high": 3.94657,
      "diff_conf_low": 0.635403,
      "diff_estimate": 2.29099,
      "n": 1909,
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "diff_conf_high": 3.03217,
      "diff_conf_low": -1.13505,
      "diff_estimate": 0.94856,
      "n": 1558,
      "year": 1994
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "diff_conf_high": 3.86828,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.421473,
      "diff_estimate": 1.7234,
      "n": 1372,
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "diff_conf_high": 4.19092,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.0663362,
      "diff_estimate": 2.06229,
      "n": 1103,
      "year": 1998
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "diff_conf_high": 3.97898,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.850364,
      "diff_estimate": 1.56431,
      "n": 1325,
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "diff_conf_high": 4.86645,
      "diff_conf_low": -1.02113,
      "diff_estimate": 1.92266,
      "n": 934,
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "diff_conf_high": 3.43684,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.91825,
      "diff_estimate": 1.25929,
      "n": 1796,
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "diff_conf_high": 3.23734,
      "diff_conf_low": 0.227754,
      "diff_estimate": 1.73255,
      "n": 4731,
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.65845,
      "diff_conf_low": -0.324031,
      "diff_estimate": 1.16721,
      "n": 3106,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "diff_conf_high": 3.7126,
      "diff_conf_low": 1.04391,
      "diff_estimate": 2.37826,
      "n": 6449,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "diff_conf_high": 2.11486,
      "diff_conf_low": -1.3427,
      "diff_estimate": 0.386082,
      "n": 4411,
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "yearly",
  "notes": [
    "Intervals are 95% intervals from HC3 robust standard errors (a linear probability model fitted to one year at a time) and treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample.",
    "Presidential vote and straight-ticket voting exist only in presidential election years; House vote, turnout and campaign activity also exist in midterm years."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z)",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "label": "No difference",
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      }
    ],
    "endLabels": false,
    "facet": "behavior",
    "facetColumns": 3,
    "hi": "diff_conf_high",
    "lo": "diff_conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      1978,
      2024
    ],
    "xLabel": "Survey year",
    "y": "diff_estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -7,
      8
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "yLabel": "Coldness minus warmth (points)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient, percentage points of each behavior per {fact:step} rating points, one model per survey year, partisans including leaners, 1978 to 2024",
  "title": "The edge of coldness over warmth rose by {fact:pres_slope} to {fact:turnout_slope} points per decade for presidential voting, House voting and reported turnout, with intervals above zero, and the yearly estimates are too noisy to date the rise",
  "type": "line"
}