{
  "alt": "Dot chart with five rows, one for each behavior, and four dots per row for the change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference since 1978 to 1990: the 1992 to 2008 sample, the 2012 to 2024 sample and the face-to-face and web samples of 2012, 2016 and 2024. The turnout row has all dots to the right of zero with intervals that exclude zero. The House voting and campaign activity rows have the all-interview dot to the right of zero and intervals that include zero in the presidential-years view and within each mode. Presidential and straight-ticket voting have intervals that include zero. Further views use presidential years only for the earlier period and the log-odds scale.",
  "caption": "The turnout row has every dot to the right of zero with an interval above zero, in the all-interview comparison, in the presidential-years-only comparison and within each interview mode. The House and campaign-activity rows have the all-interview dot above zero and, in the presidential-years-only view, an interval that includes zero; the face-to-face and web dots for those rows have intervals that include zero or reach it. Presidential voting and the straight ticket have intervals that include zero throughout. The presidential-years views compare 2012 to 2024 with 1980, 1984 and 1988 alone, because 1978 to 1990 includes midterm studies and 2012 to 2024 does not. The log-odds views put the same change on a scale that does not shrink as a behavior nears everyone. Each dot is the difference of two independent estimates with a 95% interval.",
  "data": [
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "conf_high": 0.0872289,
      "conf_low": -0.110509,
      "estimate": -0.0116399,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "conf_high": 0.284775,
      "conf_low": -0.113503,
      "estimate": 0.0856361,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "conf_high": 0.0689438,
      "conf_low": -0.148903,
      "estimate": -0.0399798,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "conf_high": 0.080267,
      "conf_low": -0.150591,
      "estimate": -0.035162,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "conf_high": 0.182097,
      "conf_low": 0.0436135,
      "estimate": 0.112855,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "conf_high": 0.311943,
      "conf_low": 0.00287742,
      "estimate": 0.15741,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "conf_high": 0.175454,
      "conf_low": -0.00605455,
      "estimate": 0.0846999,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "conf_high": 0.0896927,
      "conf_low": -0.0533403,
      "estimate": 0.0181762,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "conf_high": 0.160599,
      "conf_low": -0.016018,
      "estimate": 0.0722907,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "conf_high": 0.178924,
      "conf_low": -0.154473,
      "estimate": 0.0122253,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "conf_high": 0.199288,
      "conf_low": -0.0130134,
      "estimate": 0.0931374,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "conf_high": 0.0972572,
      "conf_low": -0.095596,
      "estimate": 0.000830552,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "conf_high": 0.204569,
      "conf_low": 0.100937,
      "estimate": 0.152753,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "conf_high": 0.28018,
      "conf_low": 0.11005,
      "estimate": 0.195115,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "conf_high": 0.19603,
      "conf_low": 0.0591721,
      "estimate": 0.127601,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "conf_high": 0.158814,
      "conf_low": 0.0545612,
      "estimate": 0.106688,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "conf_high": 0.106918,
      "conf_low": 0.019916,
      "estimate": 0.0634169,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "conf_high": 0.141386,
      "conf_low": -0.00997286,
      "estimate": 0.0657067,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "conf_high": 0.100545,
      "conf_low": -0.0139687,
      "estimate": 0.0432882,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "conf_high": 0.119814,
      "conf_low": 0.0260959,
      "estimate": 0.0729548,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "conf_high": 0.0872289,
      "conf_low": -0.110509,
      "estimate": -0.0116399,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "conf_high": 0.284775,
      "conf_low": -0.113503,
      "estimate": 0.0856361,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "conf_high": 0.0689438,
      "conf_low": -0.148903,
      "estimate": -0.0399798,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "conf_high": 0.080267,
      "conf_low": -0.150591,
      "estimate": -0.035162,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "conf_high": 0.188215,
      "conf_low": 0.018789,
      "estimate": 0.103502,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "conf_high": 0.310113,
      "conf_low": -0.0139995,
      "estimate": 0.148057,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "conf_high": 0.178391,
      "conf_low": -0.0276982,
      "estimate": 0.0753465,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "conf_high": 0.0884338,
      "conf_low": -0.0967294,
      "estimate": -0.00414778,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "conf_high": 0.160599,
      "conf_low": -0.016018,
      "estimate": 0.0722907,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "conf_high": 0.178924,
      "conf_low": -0.154473,
      "estimate": 0.0122253,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "conf_high": 0.199288,
      "conf_low": -0.0130134,
      "estimate": 0.0931374,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "conf_high": 0.0972572,
      "conf_low": -0.095596,
      "estimate": 0.000830552,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "conf_high": 0.195849,
      "conf_low": 0.0583228,
      "estimate": 0.127086,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "conf_high": 0.265778,
      "conf_low": 0.0731169,
      "estimate": 0.169447,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "conf_high": 0.183946,
      "conf_low": 0.0199215,
      "estimate": 0.101934,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "conf_high": 0.162056,
      "conf_low": 0.00983845,
      "estimate": 0.085947,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "conf_high": 0.109258,
      "conf_low": -0.00434144,
      "estimate": 0.0524581,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "conf_high": 0.138779,
      "conf_low": -0.0292834,
      "estimate": 0.0547479,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "conf_high": 0.100243,
      "conf_low": -0.0355839,
      "estimate": 0.0323294,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "conf_high": 0.126195,
      "conf_low": 0.000764549,
      "estimate": 0.0634796,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "logodds_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "conf_high": 1.91827,
      "conf_low": -0.244098,
      "estimate": 0.837087,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "conf_high": 2.70981,
      "conf_low": -0.645306,
      "estimate": 1.03225,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "conf_high": 1.72396,
      "conf_low": -0.600639,
      "estimate": 0.561661,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "conf_high": 0.938035,
      "conf_low": -1.50347,
      "estimate": -0.282717,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "conf_high": 2.53032,
      "conf_low": 0.515845,
      "estimate": 1.52308,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "conf_high": 3.10304,
      "conf_low": -0.114205,
      "estimate": 1.49442,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "conf_high": 2.43164,
      "conf_low": -0.00179997,
      "estimate": 1.21492,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "conf_high": 1.37316,
      "conf_low": -0.984091,
      "estimate": 0.194535,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "conf_high": 1.95791,
      "conf_low": -0.844872,
      "estimate": 0.556519,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "conf_high": 1.71008,
      "conf_low": -2.21831,
      "estimate": -0.254116,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "conf_high": 2.33728,
      "conf_low": -0.729709,
      "estimate": 0.803787,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "conf_high": 1.32375,
      "conf_low": -1.95238,
      "estimate": -0.314311,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "conf_high": 3.55701,
      "conf_low": 1.73146,
      "estimate": 2.64423,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "conf_high": 4.92541,
      "conf_low": 2.01981,
      "estimate": 3.47261,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "conf_high": 3.47096,
      "conf_low": 1.16499,
      "estimate": 2.31797,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "conf_high": 3.18293,
      "conf_low": 1.09251,
      "estimate": 2.13772,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "conf_high": 2.5431,
      "conf_low": 0.513808,
      "estimate": 1.52845,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "conf_high": 3.33252,
      "conf_low": -0.237549,
      "estimate": 1.54749,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "conf_high": 2.40815,
      "conf_low": -0.321238,
      "estimate": 1.04346,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "conf_high": 2.73528,
      "conf_low": 0.61381,
      "estimate": 1.67454,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_all"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "conf_high": 1.91827,
      "conf_low": -0.244098,
      "estimate": 0.837087,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "conf_high": 2.70981,
      "conf_low": -0.645306,
      "estimate": 1.03225,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "conf_high": 1.72396,
      "conf_low": -0.600639,
      "estimate": 0.561661,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line presidential vote",
      "conf_high": 0.938035,
      "conf_low": -1.50347,
      "estimate": -0.282717,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "conf_high": 2.71216,
      "conf_low": -0.0310766,
      "estimate": 1.34054,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "conf_high": 3.1705,
      "conf_low": -0.546746,
      "estimate": 1.31188,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "conf_high": 2.56444,
      "conf_low": -0.499684,
      "estimate": 1.03238,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Party-line House vote",
      "conf_high": 1.36679,
      "conf_low": -1.77342,
      "estimate": -0.203311,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "conf_high": 1.95791,
      "conf_low": -0.844872,
      "estimate": 0.556519,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "conf_high": 1.71008,
      "conf_low": -2.21831,
      "estimate": -0.254116,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "conf_high": 2.33728,
      "conf_low": -0.729709,
      "estimate": 0.803787,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Straight ticket",
      "conf_high": 1.32375,
      "conf_low": -1.95238,
      "estimate": -0.314311,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "conf_high": 3.25087,
      "conf_low": 0.848489,
      "estimate": 2.04968,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "conf_high": 4.5274,
      "conf_low": 1.22872,
      "estimate": 2.87806,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "conf_high": 3.11593,
      "conf_low": 0.330916,
      "estimate": 1.72342,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Reported turnout",
      "conf_high": 2.85914,
      "conf_low": 0.121014,
      "estimate": 1.49008,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "conf_high": 2.62023,
      "conf_low": -0.0923349,
      "estimate": 1.26395,
      "sample_label": "2012 to 2024, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "conf_high": 3.28206,
      "conf_low": -0.716107,
      "estimate": 1.28298,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "conf_high": 2.41369,
      "conf_low": -0.855794,
      "estimate": 0.77895,
      "sample_label": "2012, 2016 and 2024, web",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    },
    {
      "behavior": "Campaign activity",
      "conf_high": 2.98082,
      "conf_low": 0.00683107,
      "estimate": 1.49382,
      "sample_label": "1992 to 2008, all interviews",
      "view": "pp_pres"
    }
  ],
  "id": "change",
  "notes": [
    "The 1978 to 1990 comparison sample has no mode weights and was interviewed mainly in person; mode estimates of the later period use weight_ftf and weight_web and cover 2012, 2016 and 2024 only. The 2020 study has no mode weights.",
    "In the presidential-years views the earlier sample is 1980, 1984 and 1988. Presidential voting and the straight ticket exist only in presidential years, so their two baselines coincide."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z; weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode estimates of 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024)",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "1992 to 2008, all interviews": "muted",
      "2012 to 2024, all interviews": "total",
      "2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face": "cat1",
      "2012, 2016 and 2024, web": "cat2"
    },
    "group": "sample_label",
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "reference": 0,
    "sort": "data",
    "x": "estimate",
    "xDomain": [
      -4,
      7
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 1,
      "signed": true
    },
    "xLabel": "Change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference (percentage points)",
    "y": "behavior"
  },
  "subtitle": "Coldness minus warmth coefficient in a later sample minus the same difference in 1978 to 1990, percentage points of each behavior per {fact:step} rating points, partisans including leaners",
  "title": "Per rating point, the change since 1978 to 1990 in the difference between coldness and warmth is above zero for reported turnout in all interviews, in presidential years alone and within each interview mode, and for House voting and campaign activity only in all interviews",
  "type": "dot",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "view": "pp_all"
      },
      "id": "pp_all",
      "label": "Percentage points, all earlier years"
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "view": "pp_pres"
      },
      "id": "pp_pres",
      "label": "Percentage points, presidential years only"
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "view": "logodds_all"
      },
      "id": "logodds_all",
      "label": "Log-odds, all earlier years",
      "spec": {
        "xDomain": [
          -0.3,
          0.5
        ],
        "xFormat": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "xLabel": "Change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference (log-odds per 10 rating points)"
      }
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "view": "logodds_pres"
      },
      "id": "logodds_pres",
      "label": "Log-odds, presidential years only",
      "spec": {
        "xDomain": [
          -0.3,
          0.5
        ],
        "xFormat": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "xLabel": "Change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference (log-odds per 10 rating points)"
      }
    }
  ]
}