# Negative partisanship: report

Companion 2.2a of The Public Mind, by Vishal Singh (NYU Stern). Generated from the chapter's data files; the reading version is at https://vishalsingh.org/politics/negative-partisanship. Table n of this report is figure n of the chapter.

## Identification

- Title: Negative partisanship
- Chapter: Companion 2.2a (Part II, Change and partisan feeling; Labels, sorting and partisan feeling)
- Question: Does dislike of the other party now organize partisan behavior more than attachment to one's own?
- Dek: Among ANES partisans in 2012 to 2024, each 10 points of coldness toward the other party went with 3.5 points more own-party House voting, against 1.9 points for the same warmth toward the own party.
- Grain: individuals
- Status: draft
- Published: 2026-10-03
- Updated: not revised
- Data sources:
  - ANES Cumulative Data File. Cumulative Data File 1948-2024: party thermometers 1978-2024; presidential vote VCF0704, House vote VCF0707, ticket splitting VCF0709, turnout VCF0702 and campaign activity VCF0717 to VCF0721; the 0 to 10 like-dislike scale for each party in seven studies from 1996; years: 1948-2024 (33 study years; even years only after 2004; no 2006, 2010 or 2014 study); weights: weight (VCF0009z); weight_ftf and weight_web (VCF0009x, VCF0009y) for mode-specific estimates in 2012, 2016 and 2024
  - County election returns. County presidential returns 2020 and 2024, Alaska excluded: the Democratic share of the two-party vote, used only to set beside the ANES self-reported vote; years: President 1868-2024 (40 elections); House and Senate 1990-2024; weights: none (full counts)
- Canonical URL: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/negative-partisanship
- Report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/negative-partisanship/report
- Markdown: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/negative-partisanship/report.md
- BibTeX key: singh2026negativepartisanship

```bibtex
@misc{singh2026negativepartisanship,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Negative partisanship},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/negative-partisanship},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 3 October 2026.}
}
```

## Principal estimates

The facts the dek and the opening prose cite, in order of appearance.

| Estimand | Population | Period | Value | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Fact id |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| size of the change in a rating that a coefficient describes (a definition, not an estimate) | the unit in which coefficients are reported | 1978 to 2024 | 10 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File | step |
| coldness toward the other party on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 3.5 | 95% CI 3.1 to 3.9 | 13,912 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | house_cold_3 |
| warmth toward the own party on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 1.9 | 95% CI 1.5 to 2.3 | 13,912 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | house_warm_3 |
| coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 1.6 | 95% CI 1.0 to 2.1 | 13,912 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | house_diff_3 |
| coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012 to 2024 | 1.6 | 95% CI 1.0 to 2.2 | 18,976 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | turnout_diff_3 |
| coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 2012 to 2024 | 1.5 | 95% CI 0.8 to 2.3 | 18,697 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | act_any_diff_3 |
| coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 0.7 | 95% CI 0.3 to 1.2 | 15,612 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | pres_diff_3 |
| coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 1978 to 1990 | 0.0 | 95% CI −0.8 to 0.9 | 5,930 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | house_diff_1 |
| coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 1978 to 1990 | 0.0 | 95% CI −0.7 to 0.7 | 10,606 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | act_any_diff_1 |
| change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 2.6 | 95% CI 1.7 to 3.6 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | turnout_chg |
| change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only | 2.0 | 95% CI 0.8 to 3.3 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | turnout_chg_p |
| change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews minus 1978 to 1990 | 3.5 | 95% CI 2.0 to 4.9 |   | weight_ftf (VCF0009x) | ANES Cumulative Data File | turnout_chg_ftf |
| change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews minus 1978 to 1990 | 2.3 | 95% CI 1.2 to 3.5 |   | weight_web (VCF0009y) | ANES Cumulative Data File | turnout_chg_web |
| count of respondents in the sample | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 18 surveys, 1978 to 2024 | 43,063 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File | n_resp |
| count of survey years | ANES time-series studies with both party thermometers | 1978 to 2024 | 18 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File | n_waves |
| lowest answer the feeling thermometer allows (a definition of the scale, not an estimate) | answers to the feeling thermometer | 1978 to 2024 | 0 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File | therm_min |
| highest answer the feeling thermometer allows (a definition of the scale, not an estimate) | answers to the feeling thermometer | 1978 to 2024 | 100 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File | therm_max |
| weighted share who lean toward a party and do not identify with it | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 2012 to 2024 | 27% |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | leaner_share_3 |
| weighted share who lean toward a party and do not identify with it | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 1978 to 1990 | 27% |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | leaner_share_1 |
| share of the sample interviewed in a midterm election year (respondent count) | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 1978 to 1990 | 56% |   | 11,264 | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File | midterm_share_1 |
| share of the sample interviewed in a midterm election year (respondent count) | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 1992 to 2008 | 25% |   | 10,856 | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File | midterm_share_2 |

## Findings

Among Democrats and Republicans (leaners included) in the American National Election Studies (ANES) of 2012 to 2024, a rating of the other party 10 points colder on the feeling thermometer went with 3.5 (95% CI 3.1 to 3.9) points more own-party House voting, with the rating of the own party held fixed. A rating of the own party 10 points warmer went with 1.9 (95% CI 1.5 to 2.3) points, with the rating of the other party held fixed. That comparison of recent levels, a larger coefficient on coldness toward the other party than on warmth toward the own party, is the chapter's principal result. This chapter calls coldness minus warmth the per-point difference. It was 1.6 (95% CI 1.0 to 2.1) points for House voting, 1.6 (95% CI 1.0 to 2.2) for reported turnout and 1.5 (95% CI 0.8 to 2.3) for campaign activity in 2012 to 2024, and 0.7 (95% CI 0.3 to 1.2) for party-line presidential voting.

Whether the difference is new is a second question, and the answer depends on the comparison. In 1978 to 1990 the per-point difference was 0.0 (95% CI −0.8 to 0.9) for House voting and 0.0 (95% CI −0.7 to 0.7) for campaign activity. Only for reported turnout is the change since then above zero under every measure the chapter uses, in presidential years alone and within each interview mode, at 2.6 (95% CI 1.7 to 3.6) points in all interviews, 2.0 (95% CI 0.8 to 3.3) in presidential years alone, 3.5 (95% CI 2.0 to 4.9) face to face and 2.3 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.5) on the web. The changes for House voting and campaign activity are above zero in all interviews and include zero in presidential years alone and within each mode, and the cut-off measures disagree with the per-point measure about presidential voting.

These are comparisons of how feelings and behavior go together, so the chapter says "went with". Both are measured in the same survey, so either may shape the other, and both may follow from traits that the survey measures only in part, such as interest in politics or the strength of party identification.

The ratings and the behavior come from the ANES Cumulative Data File: 43,063 respondents in 18 surveys from 1978 to 2024 who identify with a party or lean toward one and rated both parties on a scale from 0 to 100. Pure independents are left out because they have no own party. Leaners count as partisans throughout, as in Chapter 2.2, Feelings toward the other party (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/feelings-toward-the-other-party), and they are 27% of partisans in 2012 to 2024 and 27% in 1978 to 1990; a check below drops them. Warmth is the rating of the own party. Coldness is 100 minus the rating of the other party, so that a higher value is colder and the two coefficients can be set side by side. Five behaviors follow. Party-line presidential voting is a vote for the own party's candidate among partisans who reported voting for a major-party candidate, and defection is its complement. Party-line House voting is the same for the House candidate. A straight-ticket vote is a vote for one party for president and the House, the complement of ticket splitting. Reported turnout is the report of having voted. Campaign activity is a yes to at least one of these: tried to persuade others how to vote, attended a meeting or rally, worked for a party or candidate, displayed a button or sticker, or gave money. All of these behaviors are self-reports. Presidential voting and the straight ticket exist only in presidential election years. The other three also exist in midterm years, which are 56% of the respondents in 1978 to 1990, 25% in 1992 to 2008 and none in 2012 to 2024, so a comparison of those three across periods mixes the period with the election type. (Note: Estimates use the ANES full-sample weight. Coefficients come from weighted linear probability models with year fixed effects, and their intervals use HC3 robust standard errors [1]. Shares of groups use the Wilson interval [2] on the Kish effective sample size [3]. All intervals treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample and ignore the ANES strata and clusters.)

Abramowitz and Webster use ANES ratings of parties and candidates to argue that increasingly negative feelings among party supporters, leaners included, about the opposing party have led to more party loyalty and more straight-ticket voting [4] [5]. A study of Canada reports that negative partisan attitudes influence turnout and a range of political activities as well as vote choice [6], a study of elections in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States reports an autonomous influence of negative party identification [7], and a study of the 2016 American election examines negative and positive partisanship together [8]. This chapter asks the question of the ANES behavior items from 1978 to 2024: holding the rating of the own party fixed, is behavior more closely tied to the rating of the other party, and when did that start? The trend in the ratings themselves is in Chapter 2.2, Feelings toward the other party (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/feelings-toward-the-other-party), the comparison of emotional distance with distance on issues is in Planned, Affective and issue polarization (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/affective-and-issue-polarization; planned), and feelings toward social groups are in Planned, Party and feelings toward social groups (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/party-and-feelings-toward-groups; planned).

### Cold-only partisans now outnumber warm-only partisans

The group comparisons sort partisans by two cut-offs. A partisan is very cold toward the other party when the rating of that party is at or below 15, and very warm toward the own party when the rating of the own party is at or above 85. A looser pair, 30 and 70, serves as a check. Four groups follow: neither, warm only, cold only and both.

Table 1 gives the size of the four groups. In 1978 to 1990, 32.0% of partisans were warm only and 4.4% were cold only. In 2012 to 2024 the shares were 10.5% and 28.1%, and 25.2% were both. Cold only is also larger than warm only within each interview mode in 2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled: 19.5% (95% CI 17.8% to 21.2%) against 13.5% (95% CI 12.1% to 15.0%) face to face and 29.1% (95% CI 27.8% to 30.4%) against 11.0% (95% CI 10.1% to 11.9%) on the web. The average rating, the share rating the other party at zero and the mode checks on both belong to Chapter 2.2, Feelings toward the other party (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/feelings-toward-the-other-party).

Table 1. Partisans very cold toward the other party only went from 4.4% of partisans in 1978 to 1990 to 28.1% in 2012 to 2024, and partisans very warm toward their own party only went from 32.0% to 10.5%

### Cold-only partisans voted the party line more often than warm-only partisans

Table 2 compares the two groups that differ on one condition. Among partisans who voted for a major-party presidential candidate in 2012 to 2024, 98.1% (95% CI 97.5% to 98.5%) of those cold only voted for their own party's candidate, against 95.4% (95% CI 93.8% to 96.6%) of those warm only, 83.2% of those in neither group and 99.2% of those in both. Cold only minus warm only was 2.6 (95% CI 1.2 to 4.1) points in 2012 to 2024 and 6.0 (95% CI 2.3 to 9.6) in 1978 to 1990, so the very cold voted the party line more often in both periods, and the interval excludes zero in each. The gap is smaller in the later period, when party-line voting was higher everywhere: the share voting the party line among all partisans who voted for a major-party candidate was 85.9% in 1978 to 1990 and 93.3% in 2012 to 2024.

Table 2. Partisans very cold toward the other party only voted for their own party's presidential candidate more often than those very warm toward their own party only in each period, at 98.1% against 95.4% in 2012 to 2024

Cold only is above warm only in all three periods for House voting as well, where cold only minus warm only was 10.1 (95% CI 5.9 to 14.2) points in 1978 to 1990 and 5.1 (95% CI 2.7 to 7.4) in 2012 to 2024, and for the straight ticket, at 11.7 (95% CI 5.0 to 18.4) and 4.6 (95% CI 2.2 to 6.9). The House gap fell by −5.0 (95% CI −9.8 to −0.3) points. Unlike presidential voting, in 1978 to 1990 the both group is not above cold only for either: 89.1% against 89.9% for House voting and 87.3% against 88.6% for the straight ticket. Reported turnout and campaign activity differ. In 1978 to 1990 warm-only partisans reported voting more often than cold-only partisans, with a difference of −5.5 (95% CI −10.1 to −0.8) points, and in 2012 to 2024 cold-only partisans reported it more often, by 5.7 (95% CI 3.2 to 8.3). For campaign activity the difference was 3.5 (95% CI −1.3 to 8.3) in 1978 to 1990, an interval that includes zero, and 5.4 (95% CI 2.0 to 8.9) in 2012 to 2024. For House voting, reported turnout and campaign activity the 1978 to 1990 cells include the midterm studies.

The cold-only group was a small part of the partisans in 1978 to 1990, so its shares carry wide intervals, and the groups say nothing about partisans between the cut-offs, which the next section uses.

### Per rating point, coldness goes with more of each behavior in 2012 to 2024

A group comparison discards the variation inside each group. For each behavior and period, Table 3 uses the whole rating. It reports the coefficients on coldness and warmth from one linear probability model, in points of the behavior per 10 points of rating, with each rating held fixed when the other is estimated. The correlation between the own-party rating and the other-party rating, each centered on its survey year, was −0.06 (95% CI −0.08 to −0.04) in 1978 to 1990 and −0.23 (95% CI −0.25 to −0.21) in 2012 to 2024, so the two feelings are now more closely tied.

Table 3. Per rating point, coldness toward the other party went with more House voting, reported turnout and campaign activity than warmth toward the own party did in 2012 to 2024, while in 1978 to 1990 the two went with similar amounts of House voting and campaign activity

In 2012 to 2024 the coefficient on coldness exceeds the coefficient on warmth for all five behaviors. The per-point difference is 1.6 (95% CI 1.0 to 2.1) points for House voting, 1.6 (95% CI 1.0 to 2.2) for reported turnout, 1.5 (95% CI 0.8 to 2.3) for campaign activity, 1.3 (95% CI 0.8 to 1.9) for the straight ticket and 0.7 (95% CI 0.3 to 1.2) for presidential voting, and every interval is above zero. That period includes 2020, which has no mode weights. In 2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled the presidential difference is 0.54 (95% CI −0.05 to 1.12), an interval that includes zero, and the other four stay above zero, with campaign activity at 1.14 (95% CI 0.23 to 2.05).

In 1978 to 1990 the difference had an interval that included zero for four behaviors: 0.0 (95% CI −0.8 to 0.9) for House voting, 0.0 (95% CI −0.7 to 0.7) for campaign activity, 0.8 (95% CI −0.5 to 2.1) for the straight ticket and −0.1 (95% CI −1.1 to 0.9) for presidential voting. Reported turnout is the exception, at −1.1 (95% CI −1.8 to −0.4) points, so warmth toward the own party went with more reported turnout than coldness toward the other party did. That result comes from the midterm studies: the difference was −1.5 (95% CI −2.4 to −0.5) in 1978, 1982, 1986 and 1990 and −0.5 (95% CI −1.5 to 0.6) in 1980, 1984 and 1988, an interval that includes zero. For House voting and campaign activity the presidential years alone also include zero, at 0.2 (95% CI −1.0 to 1.5) and 0.3 (95% CI −0.8 to 1.4).

The middle period separates the behaviors. In 1992 to 2008 the difference for reported turnout was 1.1 (95% CI 0.3 to 1.9) and for campaign activity 1.7 (95% CI 0.9 to 2.5), both above zero, while the differences for House voting (0.2 (95% CI −0.6 to 1.1)) and presidential voting (−0.4 (95% CI −1.1 to 0.4)) still included zero. The edge for coldness reached participation first and party-line voting later.

### The yearly differences are noisy, and 2020 stands out

Table 4 fits the same model to one survey at a time. The yearly differences scatter around zero before the 1990s. The interval lies above zero in 14 of 78 yearly estimates, all from 1992 on, and below zero in 3, all before 1998. In 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 the point estimate is above zero in every panel.

Table 4. The edge of coldness over warmth rose by 0.3 to 0.5 points per decade for presidential voting, House voting and reported turnout, with intervals above zero, and the yearly estimates are too noisy to date the rise

A model that lets each coefficient change linearly with time summarizes the movement. The coldness-minus-warmth difference rose by 0.5 (95% CI 0.3 to 0.8) points per decade for reported turnout, 0.5 (95% CI 0.2 to 0.7) for House voting and 0.3 (95% CI 0.1 to 0.6) for presidential voting, with intervals above zero. For the straight ticket the rise was 0.2 (95% CI −0.1 to 0.6), an interval that includes zero, and for campaign activity 0.3 (95% CI 0.0 to 0.6), an interval whose lower end reaches zero at one decimal. Fitted to presidential years alone, the rise is 0.5 (95% CI 0.1 to 0.8) for House voting, an interval above zero, and 0.3 for reported turnout, an interval whose lower end is just below zero. The yearly estimates are too wide to say whether the rise was gradual or sudden.

The 2020 survey is the only one in which the interval is above zero in all five panels. In 2024 the point estimate is lower than in 2020 in every panel and every interval includes zero: 2.3 (95% CI 1.3 to 3.3) in 2020 and 0.6 (95% CI −0.5 to 1.7) in 2024 for House voting, and 2.4 (95% CI 1.0 to 3.7) and 0.4 (95% CI −1.3 to 2.1) for campaign activity. The 2020 study has no mode weights and the 2024 sample mixes new face-to-face, new web and panel respondents, so the figure cannot say whether the lower 2024 estimates reflect a change in feelings or in who was interviewed.

### Face-to-face and web respondents show the same sign

The 2012 to 2024 sample mixes interview modes, and web respondents are more often cold only than face-to-face respondents (Table 1). Table 5 restricts the sample to 2012, 2016 and 2024, the years with mode weights, and estimates each mode alone. In both modes the per-point difference is positive for all five behaviors. For House voting it is 1.5 (95% CI 0.2 to 2.9) points face to face and 1.2 (95% CI 0.4 to 2.1) on the web. For reported turnout it is 2.4 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.7) and 1.3 (95% CI 0.3 to 2.2), with intervals above zero in both modes. For campaign activity it is 1.6 (95% CI −0.1 to 3.2) and 1.1 (95% CI −0.1 to 2.2), and for presidential voting 0.9 (95% CI −0.4 to 2.3) and 0.5 (95% CI −0.2 to 1.1), with intervals that include zero in both modes for both behaviors.

Table 5. In 2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled, the coldness-minus-warmth difference has the same sign in face-to-face and web interviews for all five behaviors, and the two intervals overlap in every row

### Only the turnout change holds in presidential years and within each mode

Table 6 sets the 2012 to 2024 per-point difference against the 1978 to 1990 difference. In all interviews the change was 2.6 (95% CI 1.7 to 3.6) points for reported turnout, 1.5 (95% CI 0.5 to 2.5) for House voting and 1.5 (95% CI 0.5 to 2.5) for campaign activity, with intervals above zero, and 0.8 (95% CI −0.2 to 1.9) for presidential voting and 0.6 (95% CI −0.8 to 2.0) for the straight ticket, with intervals that include zero. The interval for the presidential change reaches 1.9 points, more than the House point estimate, so the data cannot rule out a presidential change of that size.

Two comparisons narrow the list. The first holds election type fixed by setting 2012 to 2024 against 1980, 1984 and 1988 alone. Reported turnout changed by 2.0 (95% CI 0.8 to 3.3) points, still above zero, while House voting changed by 1.3 and campaign activity by 1.3 (95% CI −0.1 to 2.6), intervals that include zero. The second holds interview mode fixed. The 1978 to 1990 studies were interviewed mainly in person, so the face-to-face estimate is the closer like-for-like comparison. Among face-to-face respondents in 2012, 2016 and 2024 reported turnout changed by 3.5 (95% CI 2.0 to 4.9) points and among web respondents by 2.3 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.5), both above zero, and both stay above zero against the presidential years alone (2.9 (95% CI 1.2 to 4.5) and 1.7 (95% CI 0.3 to 3.1)). House voting changed by 1.5 (95% CI −0.1 to 3.1) face to face and 1.2 on the web, and campaign activity by 1.5 (95% CI −0.2 to 3.3) and 1.0 (95% CI −0.3 to 2.4), and those intervals include zero or reach it.

Table 6. Per rating point, the change since 1978 to 1990 in the difference between coldness and warmth is above zero for reported turnout in all interviews, in presidential years alone and within each interview mode, and for House voting and campaign activity only in all interviews

Party-line voting also rose over these years, which compresses any coefficient on the probability scale. The share voting the party line was 77.1% for the House in 1978 to 1990 and 90.0% in 2012 to 2024, and 85.9% and 93.3% for the presidency. The log-odds views of Table 6 repeat the change on a scale where a constant proportional association gives a constant coefficient. On that scale the presidential difference was 0.09 (95% CI 0.01 to 0.17) in 1978 to 1990 and 0.08 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.14) in 2012 to 2024, a change of −0.01 (95% CI −0.11 to 0.09). Coldness went with more presidential voting than warmth in both periods, and the data show no change. The House change is 0.11 (95% CI 0.04 to 0.18) in all interviews and 0.10 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.19) in presidential years alone, both above zero, and 0.16 (95% CI 0.00 to 0.31) face to face and 0.08 (95% CI −0.01 to 0.18) on the web. For campaign activity it is 0.06 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.11) in all interviews and 0.05 (95% CI 0.00 to 0.11) in presidential years alone, an interval that reaches zero.

### The coldness edge comes from different coefficients for votes and participation

The difference can rise because the coldness coefficient rises, because the warmth coefficient falls, or both. Interacting each coefficient with time separates them. For the three vote behaviors the warmth coefficient fell, by −0.4 (95% CI −0.6 to −0.2) points per decade for presidential voting, −0.4 (95% CI −0.5 to −0.2) for House voting and −0.4 (95% CI −0.6 to −0.2) for the straight ticket, while the coldness coefficient changed by −0.1 (95% CI −0.3 to 0.1), 0.1 (95% CI −0.1 to 0.3) and −0.2 (95% CI −0.4 to 0.0), all with intervals that include zero. For reported turnout the coldness coefficient rose, by 0.2 (95% CI 0.1 to 0.4) points per decade, as the warmth coefficient fell, by −0.3 (95% CI −0.5 to −0.1). For campaign activity the coldness coefficient rose by 0.4 (95% CI 0.2 to 0.6) and the warmth coefficient changed by 0.1 (95% CI −0.1 to 0.3), an interval that includes zero. In votes the association of warmth weakened and that of coldness held; in reported turnout and campaign activity the association with coldness grew.

### The recent sign holds under other measures, and the change does not

The group comparison and the per-point comparison disagree about the 1980s, and Table 7 shows that the measure matters. In 2012 to 2024 the coefficient on coldness exceeds the coefficient on warmth for all five behaviors under the four measures the figure defines, and all 20 intervals are above zero. In 1978 to 1990 the measures disagree, and 12 of the 20 intervals include zero. The cut-off versions put the difference for House voting at 5.6 (95% CI 1.9 to 9.2) points and for the straight ticket at 7.2 (95% CI 1.6 to 12.8) in 1978 to 1990, above zero, as the group comparison above did, while the per-point difference is 0.0 (95% CI −0.8 to 0.9) and 0.8 (95% CI −0.5 to 2.1).

The change since 1978 to 1990 also depends on the measure: 12 of the 20 change intervals are above zero, and which behaviors they cover differs by measure. Presidential voting changed by 6.1 (95% CI 2.5 to 9.7) points at the first pair of cut-offs and 8.4 (95% CI 4.0 to 12.8) at the looser pair, both above zero, against 0.8 (95% CI −0.2 to 1.9) per point and 0.4 (95% CI −1.7 to 2.6) per standard deviation, both including zero. House voting changed by 2.7 (95% CI −1.4 to 6.8) at the first pair, an interval that includes zero, and 4.29 (95% CI 0.03 to 8.55) at the looser pair. The straight ticket changed by −0.3 (95% CI −6.2 to 5.7) and −2.5 (95% CI −8.5 to 3.5), both including zero. Reported turnout is above zero under all four measures, at 5.0 (95% CI 3.2 to 6.8) per standard deviation, 10.1 (95% CI 5.9 to 14.3) at the first pair and 9.1 (95% CI 5.2 to 13.1) at the looser pair. The group comparison sides with the measures that show no growth for votes, because the gap between cold only and warm only fell for House voting and for the straight ticket (−5.0 (95% CI −9.8 to −0.3) and −7.1 (95% CI −14.2 to 0.0) points) and rose for reported turnout (11.2 (95% CI 5.9 to 16.5)).

Table 7. In 2012 to 2024 the coldness coefficient exceeds the warmth coefficient for all five behaviors under each of four measures, every one of the 20 intervals lies above zero, and the measures disagree about the change since 1978 to 1990

Table 8 adds five checks for 2012 to 2024. Counting leaners as partisans is a choice, and dropping them leaves the differences positive and narrower: 0.3 (95% CI −0.3 to 0.9) for presidential voting and 0.7 (95% CI −0.1 to 1.4) for House voting, both with intervals that include zero, and 1.5 (95% CI 0.8 to 2.2) for reported turnout, 0.8 (95% CI 0.1 to 1.4) for the straight ticket and 1.2 (95% CI 0.2 to 2.2) for campaign activity, above zero. For the two vote items the edge for coldness depends partly on counting leaners. Holding party, strength of identification, education, age and interest in the campaign fixed leaves the presidential difference at 0.6 (95% CI 0.1 to 1.1) and the House difference at 1.2 (95% CI 0.6 to 1.9). Fitting each rating in its own model gives 0.5 (95% CI 0.1 to 0.9) and 1.2 (95% CI 0.7 to 1.6). On the log-odds scale every difference is above zero. On the like-dislike scale for each party, asked in 7 studies from 1996, the presidential difference is 0.3 (95% CI −0.2 to 0.8) and the turnout difference 0.3 (95% CI −0.4 to 0.9), both with intervals that include zero, while House voting, the straight ticket and campaign activity stay above zero. Across the 25 cells of Table 8 every difference is positive and 21 have an interval above zero.

Table 8. In 2012 to 2024 the difference between coldness and warmth is positive in all 25 cells of five further checks, with an interval above zero in 21

### In 2012 to 2024, coldness goes with persuading others and giving money

The campaign activities differ. Table 9 splits the activity index into its items. In 2012 to 2024 the coefficient on coldness exceeds the coefficient on warmth for trying to persuade others, by 1.9 (95% CI 1.1 to 2.6) points, and for giving money, by 1.9 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.4). Attending a meeting (0.3 (95% CI −0.1 to 0.7)) and working for a party or candidate (0.3 (95% CI 0.0 to 0.7)) show smaller differences, with the second interval close to zero. Displaying a button or sticker shows none, at −0.1 (95% CI −0.7 to 0.4), and in 1978 to 1990 warmth led for that item, at −0.5 (95% CI −0.9 to −0.1).

Table 9. In 2012 to 2024 coldness went with more persuading others and giving money than warmth did, and the two went with similar amounts of displaying a button

### What these data cannot show

The comparison is between two feelings measured in the same survey as the behavior. A respondent who voted for a party's candidate may rate that party warmer afterward, and a respondent who dislikes the other party may be more willing to say that they voted or took part, so the coefficients cannot say which way the association runs. Interest in politics, strength of party identification, ideology and age may each raise warmth, coldness and behavior together. The checks hold a few of them fixed and do not hold ideology or issue positions fixed. Ratings of the parties may also reflect feelings about party elites more than about other citizens [9], and the party rating is not the rating of the presidential nominee, which goes with the presidential vote and is studied in Chapter 2.2, Feelings toward the other party (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/feelings-toward-the-other-party).

The behaviors are reports. Validation against public records finds that survey respondents consistently overreport voting and that the nonvoters who say they voted tend to be politically engaged [10]. The file has no validated-vote variable, so the turnout results describe respondents who say they voted, and overreporting that is concentrated among engaged partisans could change the comparison of coldness and warmth. The self-reported vote also leans Democratic: among respondents who reported a major-party presidential vote, 56.0% reported a Democratic vote in 2020 and 55.3% in 2024, against 52.3% and 49.3% of the two-party vote in county returns, Alaska excluded. The party-line measures compare each partisan with the own party's candidate, so they are less exposed to that lean than a vote share is. The vote items cover only partisans who reported voting for a major-party candidate, so partisans who stayed home or chose a third-party candidate, among whom coldness toward both parties may be common, are outside them. Party-line voting is near its ceiling in recent years, which limits how much any coefficient can show, and the log-odds check addresses scale and not selection.

The results come from repeated cross-sections, so they cannot show that any partisan grew colder or that any partisan's behavior changed as feelings changed. A panel that follows the same people is needed for that, and the ANES 2016, 2020 and 2024 panel is not in the files used here. The three periods were fixed before estimation, but their boundaries are a choice, and the per-decade slope and the yearly figure are there so that the result does not rest on them alone. The periods also differ in election type, and the presidential-years comparisons use three early studies. The 2012 to 2024 sample includes 2020, which has no mode weights, so the mode comparison covers 2012, 2016 and 2024 only. The intervals are model based and ignore the ANES sampling design. The chapter reports five behaviors, three periods and several measures without adjusting for multiple comparisons, so an interval that excludes zero in one cell is weaker evidence than it looks. What the ratings go with in views about political violence and democratic norms belongs to Chapter 5.4, Political violence and democratic norms (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/political-violence-and-democratic-norms), and who turns out to vote belongs to Chapter 3.1, Turnout (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/turnout).

## Tables

### Table 1. Partisans very cold toward the other party only went from 4.4% of partisans in 1978 to 1990 to 28.1% in 2012 to 2024, and partisans very warm toward their own party only went from 32.0% to 10.5%

Share of partisans, leaners included, in each of four groups defined by rating the other party at or below 15 (cold) and their own party at or above 85 (warm) on the 0 to 100 feeling thermometer, three periods and two interview modes

| conf_high | conf_low | cut | estimate | group | n | sample |
| ---: | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- |
| 55.57 | 53.73 | strict | 54.65 | Neither | 11,264 | 1978 to 1990 |
| 32.90 | 31.18 | strict | 32.03 | Warm only | 11,264 | 1978 to 1990 |
| 4.81 | 4.05 | strict | 4.41 | Cold only | 11,264 | 1978 to 1990 |
| 9.44 | 8.39 | strict | 8.90 | Both | 11,264 | 1978 to 1990 |
| 58.11 | 56.03 | strict | 57.07 | Neither | 10,856 | 1992 to 2008 |
| 23.87 | 22.10 | strict | 22.98 | Warm only | 10,856 | 1992 to 2008 |
| 9.36 | 8.17 | strict | 8.75 | Cold only | 10,856 | 1992 to 2008 |
| 11.89 | 10.56 | strict | 11.21 | Both | 10,856 | 1992 to 2008 |
| 37.08 | 35.31 | strict | 36.19 | Neither | 20,943 | 2012 to 2024 |
| 11.07 | 9.95 | strict | 10.50 | Warm only | 20,943 | 2012 to 2024 |
| 28.93 | 27.28 | strict | 28.10 | Cold only | 20,943 | 2012 to 2024 |
| 26.02 | 24.43 | strict | 25.21 | Both | 20,943 | 2012 to 2024 |
| 28.61 | 26.96 | loose | 27.78 | Neither | 11,264 | 1978 to 1990 |
| 49.67 | 47.83 | loose | 48.75 | Warm only | 11,264 | 1978 to 1990 |
| 5.12 | 4.34 | loose | 4.71 | Cold only | 11,264 | 1978 to 1990 |
| 19.49 | 18.05 | loose | 18.76 | Both | 11,264 | 1978 to 1990 |
| 28.24 | 26.37 | loose | 27.30 | Neither | 10,856 | 1992 to 2008 |
| 38.74 | 36.70 | loose | 37.71 | Warm only | 10,856 | 1992 to 2008 |
| 10.01 | 8.79 | loose | 9.38 | Cold only | 10,856 | 1992 to 2008 |
| 26.53 | 24.70 | loose | 25.61 | Both | 10,856 | 1992 to 2008 |
| 16.98 | 15.63 | loose | 16.29 | Neither | 20,943 | 2012 to 2024 |
| 15.06 | 13.77 | loose | 14.41 | Warm only | 20,943 | 2012 to 2024 |
| 22.61 | 21.10 | loose | 21.85 | Cold only | 20,943 | 2012 to 2024 |
| 48.37 | 46.54 | loose | 47.46 | Both | 20,943 | 2012 to 2024 |
| 51.43 | 47.13 | strict | 49.28 | Neither | 3,787 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face |
| 15.04 | 12.10 | strict | 13.50 | Warm only | 3,787 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face |
| 21.25 | 17.85 | strict | 19.49 | Cold only | 3,787 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face |
| 19.43 | 16.14 | strict | 17.73 | Both | 3,787 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face |
| 38.73 | 35.95 | strict | 37.33 | Neither | 7,712 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web |
| 11.93 | 10.13 | strict | 11.00 | Warm only | 7,712 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web |
| 30.39 | 27.79 | strict | 29.07 | Cold only | 7,712 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web |
| 23.82 | 21.42 | strict | 22.60 | Both | 7,712 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web |

Views: Cut-offs 15 and 85 (cut = strict); Cut-offs 30 and 70 (cut = loose).

Note: Face-to-face and web estimates use the mode weights weight_ftf and weight_web, which exist for 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024. The 2020 study has no mode weights and the 2024 panel and paper respondents belong to neither mode group.

Note: Respondents give the ratings 15, 30, 70 and 85 more often than the values next to them, so each cut-off sits on a common answer and includes it.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z; weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode estimates of 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/group_shares.json

### Table 2. Partisans very cold toward the other party only voted for their own party's presidential candidate more often than those very warm toward their own party only in each period, at 98.1% against 95.4% in 2012 to 2024

Share of partisans, leaners included, who acted as the view names (first view: voted for their own party's presidential candidate), by whether they rated the other party at or below 15 (cold) and their own party at or above 85 (warm), three periods

| conf_high | conf_low | estimate | group | n | outcome | period |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | --- |
| 80.35 | 76.20 | 78.34 | Neither | 1,510 | pres | 1978 to 1990 |
| 92.30 | 88.87 | 90.73 | Warm only | 1,100 | pres | 1978 to 1990 |
| 98.71 | 91.81 | 96.69 | Cold only | 121 | pres | 1978 to 1990 |
| 99.57 | 97.17 | 98.89 | Both | 359 | pres | 1978 to 1990 |
| 85.96 | 82.95 | 84.51 | Neither | 2,753 | pres | 1992 to 2008 |
| 95.72 | 93.01 | 94.52 | Warm only | 1,361 | pres | 1992 to 2008 |
| 98.27 | 94.79 | 96.98 | Cold only | 496 | pres | 1992 to 2008 |
| 99.74 | 98.27 | 99.32 | Both | 790 | pres | 1992 to 2008 |
| 84.56 | 81.73 | 83.19 | Neither | 4,794 | pres | 2012 to 2024 |
| 96.61 | 93.84 | 95.42 | Warm only | 1,651 | pres | 2012 to 2024 |
| 98.52 | 97.47 | 98.06 | Cold only | 4,774 | pres | 2012 to 2024 |
| 99.48 | 98.72 | 99.18 | Both | 4,393 | pres | 2012 to 2024 |
| 73.64 | 70.49 | 72.09 | Neither | 3,117 | house | 1978 to 1990 |
| 81.50 | 77.98 | 79.80 | Warm only | 1,995 | house | 1978 to 1990 |
| 93.05 | 85.49 | 89.88 | Cold only | 247 | house | 1978 to 1990 |
| 91.44 | 86.32 | 89.14 | Both | 571 | house | 1978 to 1990 |
| 76.73 | 73.49 | 75.14 | Neither | 3,336 | house | 1992 to 2008 |
| 87.03 | 83.04 | 85.14 | Warm only | 1,501 | house | 1992 to 2008 |
| 93.13 | 87.97 | 90.87 | Cold only | 590 | house | 1992 to 2008 |
| 96.34 | 92.90 | 94.89 | Both | 844 | house | 1992 to 2008 |
| 82.17 | 79.03 | 80.65 | Neither | 4,286 | house | 2012 to 2024 |
| 91.89 | 87.54 | 89.92 | Warm only | 1,376 | house | 2012 to 2024 |
| 95.77 | 94.04 | 94.97 | Cold only | 4,397 | house | 2012 to 2024 |
| 96.25 | 94.41 | 95.42 | Both | 3,853 | house | 2012 to 2024 |
| 72.71 | 67.74 | 70.28 | Neither | 1,299 | straight | 1978 to 1990 |
| 79.46 | 74.11 | 76.89 | Warm only | 952 | straight | 1978 to 1990 |
| 93.34 | 81.08 | 88.57 | Cold only | 105 | straight | 1978 to 1990 |
| 90.53 | 83.05 | 87.25 | Both | 306 | straight | 1978 to 1990 |
| 77.70 | 73.79 | 75.80 | Neither | 2,282 | straight | 1992 to 2008 |
| 87.61 | 83.07 | 85.49 | Warm only | 1,140 | straight | 1992 to 2008 |
| 94.02 | 88.06 | 91.50 | Cold only | 421 | straight | 1992 to 2008 |
| 97.17 | 93.60 | 95.73 | Both | 685 | straight | 1992 to 2008 |
| 84.27 | 81.17 | 82.78 | Neither | 4,028 | straight | 2012 to 2024 |
| 92.26 | 87.94 | 90.32 | Warm only | 1,351 | straight | 2012 to 2024 |
| 95.71 | 93.92 | 94.89 | Cold only | 4,232 | straight | 2012 to 2024 |
| 96.34 | 94.51 | 95.52 | Both | 3,824 | straight | 2012 to 2024 |
| 63.52 | 61.05 | 62.29 | Neither | 5,885 | turnout | 1978 to 1990 |
| 70.14 | 67.03 | 68.61 | Warm only | 3,405 | turnout | 1978 to 1990 |
| 67.37 | 58.69 | 63.14 | Cold only | 472 | turnout | 1978 to 1990 |
| 74.52 | 68.74 | 71.72 | Both | 930 | turnout | 1978 to 1990 |
| 71.69 | 69.05 | 70.39 | Neither | 5,620 | turnout | 1992 to 2008 |
| 75.50 | 71.55 | 73.57 | Warm only | 2,368 | turnout | 1992 to 2008 |
| 82.05 | 76.01 | 79.19 | Cold only | 864 | turnout | 1992 to 2008 |
| 85.34 | 80.40 | 83.01 | Both | 1,158 | turnout | 1992 to 2008 |
| 79.53 | 76.83 | 78.21 | Neither | 6,432 | turnout | 2012 to 2024 |
| 84.34 | 79.82 | 82.19 | Warm only | 2,043 | turnout | 2012 to 2024 |
| 89.03 | 86.74 | 87.93 | Cold only | 5,582 | turnout | 2012 to 2024 |
| 89.63 | 87.15 | 88.45 | Both | 4,919 | turnout | 2012 to 2024 |
| 34.99 | 32.56 | 33.76 | Neither | 5,835 | act_any | 1978 to 1990 |
| 41.70 | 38.40 | 40.04 | Warm only | 3,384 | act_any | 1978 to 1990 |
| 48.08 | 39.09 | 43.53 | Cold only | 464 | act_any | 1978 to 1990 |
| 47.75 | 41.35 | 44.53 | Both | 923 | act_any | 1978 to 1990 |
| 40.49 | 37.66 | 39.07 | Neither | 5,614 | act_any | 1992 to 2008 |
| 47.13 | 42.67 | 44.89 | Warm only | 2,362 | act_any | 1992 to 2008 |
| 60.83 | 53.47 | 57.19 | Cold only | 864 | act_any | 1992 to 2008 |
| 64.41 | 58.01 | 61.26 | Both | 1,157 | act_any | 1992 to 2008 |
| 44.14 | 40.90 | 42.51 | Neither | 6,364 | act_any | 2012 to 2024 |
| 57.54 | 51.61 | 54.59 | Warm only | 2,011 | act_any | 2012 to 2024 |
| 61.75 | 58.28 | 60.03 | Cold only | 5,510 | act_any | 2012 to 2024 |
| 64.07 | 60.26 | 62.18 | Both | 4,812 | act_any | 2012 to 2024 |

Views: Presidential vote (outcome = pres); House vote (outcome = house); Straight ticket (outcome = straight); Reported turnout (outcome = turnout); Campaign activity (outcome = act_any).

Note: Cells below 100 respondents are left out.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/cells.json

### Table 3. Per rating point, coldness toward the other party went with more House voting, reported turnout and campaign activity than warmth toward the own party did in 2012 to 2024, while in 1978 to 1990 the two went with similar amounts of House voting and campaign activity

Percentage points of each behavior per 10 points on the 0 to 100 thermometer, from one linear probability model per behavior and period with both ratings and year fixed effects, partisans including leaners

| Behavior | Sample | Warmth coefficient | Warmth, lower end | Warmth, upper end | Coldness coefficient | Coldness, lower end | Coldness, upper end | Coldness minus warmth | Difference, lower end | Difference, upper end | Respondents |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1978 to 1990 | 4.27 | 3.54 | 5.01 | 4.17 | 3.64 | 4.71 | −0.10 | −1.06 | +0.87 | 3,090 |
| Party-line House vote | 1978 to 1990 | 2.92 | 2.29 | 3.54 | 2.95 | 2.47 | 3.43 | +0.03 | −0.79 | +0.86 | 5,930 |
| Straight ticket | 1978 to 1990 | 2.05 | 1.11 | 3.00 | 2.83 | 2.10 | 3.56 | +0.78 | −0.50 | +2.06 | 2,662 |
| Reported turnout | 1978 to 1990 | 2.15 | 1.64 | 2.66 | 1.08 | 0.66 | 1.51 | −1.07 | −1.76 | −0.38 | 10,692 |
| Campaign activity | 1978 to 1990 | 1.94 | 1.43 | 2.45 | 1.96 | 1.52 | 2.40 | +0.02 | −0.67 | +0.70 | 10,606 |
| Party-line House vote | 1978 to 1990, midterm years | 3.11 | 2.26 | 3.95 | 2.98 | 2.33 | 3.63 | −0.12 | −1.23 | +0.99 | 3,138 |
| Reported turnout | 1978 to 1990, midterm years | 2.33 | 1.64 | 3.02 | 0.88 | 0.29 | 1.46 | −1.45 | −2.37 | −0.54 | 6,348 |
| Campaign activity | 1978 to 1990, midterm years | 1.68 | 1.03 | 2.33 | 1.52 | 0.95 | 2.08 | −0.16 | −1.02 | +0.69 | 6,321 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1978 to 1990, presidential years | 4.27 | 3.54 | 5.01 | 4.17 | 3.64 | 4.71 | −0.10 | −1.06 | +0.87 | 3,090 |
| Party-line House vote | 1978 to 1990, presidential years | 2.71 | 1.79 | 3.64 | 2.93 | 2.23 | 3.64 | +0.22 | −1.03 | +1.46 | 2,792 |
| Straight ticket | 1978 to 1990, presidential years | 2.05 | 1.11 | 3.00 | 2.83 | 2.10 | 3.56 | +0.78 | −0.50 | +2.06 | 2,662 |
| Reported turnout | 1978 to 1990, presidential years | 1.86 | 1.11 | 2.62 | 1.39 | 0.79 | 1.99 | −0.47 | −1.51 | +0.57 | 4,344 |
| Campaign activity | 1978 to 1990, presidential years | 2.26 | 1.43 | 3.08 | 2.54 | 1.84 | 3.23 | +0.28 | −0.85 | +1.41 | 4,285 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1992 to 2008 | 3.67 | 3.09 | 4.26 | 3.29 | 2.85 | 3.74 | −0.38 | −1.13 | +0.37 | 5,400 |
| Party-line House vote | 1992 to 2008 | 3.11 | 2.48 | 3.73 | 3.34 | 2.86 | 3.81 | +0.23 | −0.61 | +1.07 | 6,271 |
| Straight ticket | 1992 to 2008 | 2.84 | 2.10 | 3.59 | 3.31 | 2.75 | 3.87 | +0.46 | −0.56 | +1.48 | 4,528 |
| Reported turnout | 1992 to 2008 | 1.34 | 0.78 | 1.91 | 2.41 | 1.95 | 2.88 | +1.07 | +0.29 | +1.86 | 10,010 |
| Campaign activity | 1992 to 2008 | 1.86 | 1.27 | 2.46 | 3.55 | 3.05 | 4.06 | +1.69 | +0.88 | +2.50 | 9,997 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 2012 to 2024 | 2.88 | 2.55 | 3.20 | 3.62 | 3.27 | 3.96 | +0.74 | +0.25 | +1.23 | 15,612 |
| Party-line House vote | 2012 to 2024 | 1.92 | 1.55 | 2.29 | 3.48 | 3.07 | 3.88 | +1.56 | +0.99 | +2.13 | 13,912 |
| Straight ticket | 2012 to 2024 | 1.21 | 0.85 | 1.57 | 2.55 | 2.16 | 2.93 | +1.34 | +0.77 | +1.90 | 13,435 |
| Reported turnout | 2012 to 2024 | 0.68 | 0.30 | 1.06 | 2.25 | 1.87 | 2.64 | +1.58 | +0.98 | +2.17 | 18,976 |
| Campaign activity | 2012 to 2024 | 2.02 | 1.54 | 2.50 | 3.56 | 3.09 | 4.04 | +1.54 | +0.79 | +2.30 | 18,697 |

Views: 2012 to 2024 (view = p3); 1992 to 2008 (view = p2); 1978 to 1990 (view = p1); 1978 to 1990, presidential years (view = p1pres); 1978 to 1990, midterm years (view = p1mid).

Note: Intervals are 95% intervals from HC3 robust standard errors (a linear probability model with year fixed effects) and treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample.

Note: Presidential voting is among partisans who voted for a major-party candidate. Turnout and campaign activity are self-reports. The 1978 to 1990 period has midterm studies in 1978, 1982, 1986 and 1990; 2012 to 2024 has none.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/by_period.json

### Table 4. The edge of coldness over warmth rose by 0.3 to 0.5 points per decade for presidential voting, House voting and reported turnout, with intervals above zero, and the yearly estimates are too noisy to date the rise

Coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient, percentage points of each behavior per 10 rating points, one model per survey year, partisans including leaners, 1978 to 2024

| behavior | diff_conf_high | diff_conf_low | diff_estimate | n | year |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1.44 | −2.55 | −0.555 | 773 | 1980 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 2.26 | −0.660 | 0.799 | 1,230 | 1984 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.953 | −2.26 | −0.655 | 1,087 | 1988 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1.46 | −1.03 | 0.214 | 1,237 | 1992 |
| Party-line presidential vote | −0.690 | −4.24 | −2.47 | 979 | 1996 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1.30 | −2.58 | −0.639 | 1,026 | 2000 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1.37 | −3.15 | −0.889 | 754 | 2004 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 2.14 | −0.829 | 0.655 | 1,404 | 2008 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1.37 | −0.758 | 0.307 | 3,838 | 2012 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1.91 | −0.053 | 0.930 | 2,381 | 2016 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 2.04 | 0.259 | 1.15 | 5,580 | 2020 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1.44 | −0.486 | 0.475 | 3,813 | 2024 |
| Party-line House vote | 1.87 | −2.95 | −0.540 | 856 | 1978 |
| Party-line House vote | 1.36 | −3.25 | −0.947 | 765 | 1980 |
| Party-line House vote | 2.70 | −2.08 | 0.314 | 654 | 1982 |
| Party-line House vote | 2.93 | −1.24 | 0.843 | 1,069 | 1984 |
| Party-line House vote | 1.31 | −2.95 | −0.821 | 895 | 1986 |
| Party-line House vote | 2.85 | −1.38 | 0.732 | 958 | 1988 |
| Party-line House vote | 2.62 | −1.35 | 0.637 | 733 | 1990 |
| Party-line House vote | 0.847 | −2.63 | −0.891 | 1,248 | 1992 |
| Party-line House vote | 1.43 | −3.16 | −0.864 | 878 | 1994 |
| Party-line House vote | 2.40 | −2.04 | 0.180 | 964 | 1996 |
| Party-line House vote | 6.00 | 0.558 | 3.28 | 516 | 1998 |
| Party-line House vote | 3.03 | −1.83 | 0.604 | 836 | 2000 |
| Party-line House vote | 3.47 | −1.64 | 0.914 | 664 | 2004 |
| Party-line House vote | 2.30 | −1.81 | 0.244 | 1,165 | 2008 |
| Party-line House vote | 2.58 | 0.262 | 1.42 | 3,321 | 2012 |
| Party-line House vote | 2.83 | 0.077 | 1.45 | 2,147 | 2016 |
| Party-line House vote | 3.29 | 1.26 | 2.28 | 4,929 | 2020 |
| Party-line House vote | 1.69 | −0.465 | 0.613 | 3,515 | 2024 |
| Straight ticket | 2.13 | −2.58 | −0.227 | 683 | 1980 |
| Straight ticket | 3.65 | −0.702 | 1.47 | 1,035 | 1984 |
| Straight ticket | 3.11 | −1.26 | 0.925 | 944 | 1988 |
| Straight ticket | 2.33 | −1.32 | 0.505 | 1,043 | 1992 |
| Straight ticket | 0.642 | −4.11 | −1.74 | 878 | 1996 |
| Straight ticket | 4.85 | −0.151 | 2.35 | 815 | 2000 |
| Straight ticket | 3.03 | −1.95 | 0.537 | 654 | 2004 |
| Straight ticket | 2.91 | −1.54 | 0.686 | 1,138 | 2008 |
| Straight ticket | 2.71 | 0.494 | 1.60 | 3,239 | 2012 |
| Straight ticket | 2.55 | −0.278 | 1.13 | 1,987 | 2016 |
| Straight ticket | 2.77 | 0.677 | 1.73 | 4,793 | 2020 |
| Straight ticket | 1.53 | −0.458 | 0.539 | 3,416 | 2024 |
| Reported turnout | 2.98 | −0.683 | 1.15 | 1,722 | 1978 |
| Reported turnout | 3.20 | −0.494 | 1.36 | 1,156 | 1980 |
| Reported turnout | −1.15 | −5.58 | −3.36 | 1,174 | 1982 |
| Reported turnout | 0.446 | −2.99 | −1.27 | 1,673 | 1984 |
| Reported turnout | −1.15 | −4.68 | −2.91 | 1,796 | 1986 |
| Reported turnout | 0.635 | −3.08 | −1.22 | 1,515 | 1988 |
| Reported turnout | 0.269 | −3.03 | −1.38 | 1,656 | 1990 |
| Reported turnout | 4.33 | 1.60 | 2.96 | 1,911 | 1992 |
| Reported turnout | 3.07 | −1.37 | 0.852 | 1,567 | 1994 |
| Reported turnout | 1.16 | −3.21 | −1.02 | 1,373 | 1996 |
| Reported turnout | 4.05 | −0.834 | 1.61 | 1,102 | 1998 |
| Reported turnout | 2.27 | −2.85 | −0.293 | 1,325 | 2000 |
| Reported turnout | 7.19 | 1.95 | 4.57 | 934 | 2004 |
| Reported turnout | 0.865 | −2.48 | −0.808 | 1,798 | 2008 |
| Reported turnout | 3.58 | 1.28 | 2.43 | 4,747 | 2012 |
| Reported turnout | 2.43 | −0.143 | 1.14 | 3,130 | 2016 |
| Reported turnout | 2.58 | 0.503 | 1.54 | 6,498 | 2020 |
| Reported turnout | 2.46 | −0.268 | 1.09 | 4,601 | 2024 |
| Campaign activity | 3.00 | −0.538 | 1.23 | 1,719 | 1978 |
| Campaign activity | 3.27 | −0.893 | 1.19 | 1,149 | 1980 |
| Campaign activity | 1.11 | −3.21 | −1.05 | 1,171 | 1982 |
| Campaign activity | 2.40 | −1.50 | 0.449 | 1,627 | 1984 |
| Campaign activity | 0.826 | −2.50 | −0.839 | 1,777 | 1986 |
| Campaign activity | 1.18 | −2.56 | −0.692 | 1,509 | 1988 |
| Campaign activity | 1.20 | −1.70 | −0.251 | 1,654 | 1990 |
| Campaign activity | 3.95 | 0.635 | 2.29 | 1,909 | 1992 |
| Campaign activity | 3.03 | −1.14 | 0.949 | 1,558 | 1994 |
| Campaign activity | 3.87 | −0.421 | 1.72 | 1,372 | 1996 |
| Campaign activity | 4.19 | −0.066 | 2.06 | 1,103 | 1998 |
| Campaign activity | 3.98 | −0.850 | 1.56 | 1,325 | 2000 |
| Campaign activity | 4.87 | −1.02 | 1.92 | 934 | 2004 |
| Campaign activity | 3.44 | −0.918 | 1.26 | 1,796 | 2008 |
| Campaign activity | 3.24 | 0.228 | 1.73 | 4,731 | 2012 |
| Campaign activity | 2.66 | −0.324 | 1.17 | 3,106 | 2016 |
| Campaign activity | 3.71 | 1.04 | 2.38 | 6,449 | 2020 |
| Campaign activity | 2.11 | −1.34 | 0.386 | 4,411 | 2024 |

Note: Intervals are 95% intervals from HC3 robust standard errors (a linear probability model fitted to one year at a time) and treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample.

Note: Presidential vote and straight-ticket voting exist only in presidential election years; House vote, turnout and campaign activity also exist in midterm years.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/yearly.json

### Table 5. In 2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled, the coldness-minus-warmth difference has the same sign in face-to-face and web interviews for all five behaviors, and the two intervals overlap in every row

Coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient, percentage points of each behavior per 10 rating points, face-to-face and web respondents separately, partisans including leaners

| behavior | ftf | ftf_hi | ftf_lo | n_ftf | n_web | period | web | web_hi | web_lo | year |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1.17 | 3.61 | −1.28 | 1,250 | 2,588 | 2012 | −0.216 | 0.705 | −1.14 | 2012 |
| Party-line House vote | 2.54 | 4.74 | 0.346 | 1,036 | 2,285 | 2012 | 0.957 | 2.24 | −0.330 | 2012 |
| Straight ticket | 0.306 | 2.79 | −2.18 | 1,012 | 2,227 | 2012 | 2.36 | 3.42 | 1.29 | 2012 |
| Reported turnout | 3.09 | 4.96 | 1.23 | 1,685 | 3,062 | 2012 | 1.76 | 3.23 | 0.283 | 2012 |
| Campaign activity | 2.50 | 5.04 | −0.037 | 1,684 | 3,047 | 2012 | 1.44 | 3.36 | −0.490 | 2012 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.653 | 2.31 | −1.01 | 696 | 1,685 | 2016 | 1.11 | 2.32 | −0.089 | 2016 |
| Party-line House vote | 0.663 | 2.65 | −1.33 | 653 | 1,494 | 2016 | 2.03 | 3.82 | 0.236 | 2016 |
| Straight ticket | 0.723 | 2.87 | −1.42 | 588 | 1,399 | 2016 | 1.51 | 3.31 | −0.294 | 2016 |
| Reported turnout | 1.97 | 4.00 | −0.063 | 931 | 2,199 | 2016 | 0.887 | 2.48 | −0.707 | 2016 |
| Campaign activity | 1.66 | 4.47 | −1.15 | 926 | 2,180 | 2016 | 0.919 | 2.69 | −0.855 | 2016 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.934 | 3.17 | −1.30 | 674 | 1,313 | 2024 | 0.683 | 2.02 | −0.651 | 2024 |
| Party-line House vote | 0.867 | 3.80 | −2.06 | 594 | 1,211 | 2024 | 0.382 | 1.82 | −1.05 | 2024 |
| Straight ticket | 1.50 | 4.12 | −1.11 | 571 | 1,185 | 2024 | 0.196 | 1.62 | −1.23 | 2024 |
| Reported turnout | 1.32 | 4.60 | −1.97 | 860 | 1,600 | 2024 | 1.12 | 2.79 | −0.545 | 2024 |
| Campaign activity | −0.845 | 2.49 | −4.18 | 855 | 1,595 | 2024 | 0.476 | 3.23 | −2.28 | 2024 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.936 | 2.31 | −0.437 | 2,620 | 5,586 | 2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled | 0.465 | 1.12 | −0.184 | pooled |
| Party-line House vote | 1.53 | 2.91 | 0.151 | 2,283 | 4,990 | 2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled | 1.25 | 2.14 | 0.359 | pooled |
| Straight ticket | 0.524 | 2.01 | −0.964 | 2,171 | 4,811 | 2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled | 1.58 | 2.42 | 0.740 | pooled |
| Reported turnout | 2.41 | 3.68 | 1.13 | 3,476 | 6,861 | 2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled | 1.25 | 2.17 | 0.329 | pooled |
| Campaign activity | 1.56 | 3.21 | −0.086 | 3,465 | 6,822 | 2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled | 1.06 | 2.24 | −0.122 | pooled |

Views: 2012, 2016 and 2024 pooled (year = pooled); 2012 (year = 2012); 2016 (year = 2016); 2024 (year = 2024).

Note: Mode groups are the fresh face-to-face and fresh web samples with their own weights. In 2024 the panel and paper respondents belong to neither group and are not in this figure. Pooled estimates include year fixed effects.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z; weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode estimates of 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/mode.json

### Table 6. Per rating point, the change since 1978 to 1990 in the difference between coldness and warmth is above zero for reported turnout in all interviews, in presidential years alone and within each interview mode, and for House voting and campaign activity only in all interviews

Coldness minus warmth coefficient in a later sample minus the same difference in 1978 to 1990, percentage points of each behavior per 10 rating points, partisans including leaners

| behavior | conf_high | conf_low | estimate | sample_label | view |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | --- |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.087 | −0.111 | −0.012 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | logodds_all |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.285 | −0.114 | 0.086 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | logodds_all |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.069 | −0.149 | −0.040 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | logodds_all |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.080 | −0.151 | −0.035 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | logodds_all |
| Party-line House vote | 0.182 | 0.044 | 0.113 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | logodds_all |
| Party-line House vote | 0.312 | 0.003 | 0.157 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | logodds_all |
| Party-line House vote | 0.175 | −0.006 | 0.085 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | logodds_all |
| Party-line House vote | 0.090 | −0.053 | 0.018 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | logodds_all |
| Straight ticket | 0.161 | −0.016 | 0.072 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | logodds_all |
| Straight ticket | 0.179 | −0.154 | 0.012 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | logodds_all |
| Straight ticket | 0.199 | −0.013 | 0.093 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | logodds_all |
| Straight ticket | 0.097 | −0.096 | 0.001 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | logodds_all |
| Reported turnout | 0.205 | 0.101 | 0.153 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | logodds_all |
| Reported turnout | 0.280 | 0.110 | 0.195 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | logodds_all |
| Reported turnout | 0.196 | 0.059 | 0.128 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | logodds_all |
| Reported turnout | 0.159 | 0.055 | 0.107 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | logodds_all |
| Campaign activity | 0.107 | 0.020 | 0.063 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | logodds_all |
| Campaign activity | 0.141 | −0.010 | 0.066 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | logodds_all |
| Campaign activity | 0.101 | −0.014 | 0.043 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | logodds_all |
| Campaign activity | 0.120 | 0.026 | 0.073 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | logodds_all |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.087 | −0.111 | −0.012 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | logodds_pres |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.285 | −0.114 | 0.086 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | logodds_pres |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.069 | −0.149 | −0.040 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | logodds_pres |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.080 | −0.151 | −0.035 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | logodds_pres |
| Party-line House vote | 0.188 | 0.019 | 0.104 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | logodds_pres |
| Party-line House vote | 0.310 | −0.014 | 0.148 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | logodds_pres |
| Party-line House vote | 0.178 | −0.028 | 0.075 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | logodds_pres |
| Party-line House vote | 0.088 | −0.097 | −0.004 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | logodds_pres |
| Straight ticket | 0.161 | −0.016 | 0.072 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | logodds_pres |
| Straight ticket | 0.179 | −0.154 | 0.012 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | logodds_pres |
| Straight ticket | 0.199 | −0.013 | 0.093 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | logodds_pres |
| Straight ticket | 0.097 | −0.096 | 0.001 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | logodds_pres |
| Reported turnout | 0.196 | 0.058 | 0.127 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | logodds_pres |
| Reported turnout | 0.266 | 0.073 | 0.169 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | logodds_pres |
| Reported turnout | 0.184 | 0.020 | 0.102 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | logodds_pres |
| Reported turnout | 0.162 | 0.010 | 0.086 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | logodds_pres |
| Campaign activity | 0.109 | −0.004 | 0.052 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | logodds_pres |
| Campaign activity | 0.139 | −0.029 | 0.055 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | logodds_pres |
| Campaign activity | 0.100 | −0.036 | 0.032 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | logodds_pres |
| Campaign activity | 0.126 | 0.001 | 0.063 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | logodds_pres |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1.92 | −0.244 | 0.837 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | pp_all |
| Party-line presidential vote | 2.71 | −0.645 | 1.03 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | pp_all |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1.72 | −0.601 | 0.562 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | pp_all |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.938 | −1.50 | −0.283 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | pp_all |
| Party-line House vote | 2.53 | 0.516 | 1.52 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | pp_all |
| Party-line House vote | 3.10 | −0.114 | 1.49 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | pp_all |
| Party-line House vote | 2.43 | −0.002 | 1.21 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | pp_all |
| Party-line House vote | 1.37 | −0.984 | 0.195 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | pp_all |
| Straight ticket | 1.96 | −0.845 | 0.557 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | pp_all |
| Straight ticket | 1.71 | −2.22 | −0.254 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | pp_all |
| Straight ticket | 2.34 | −0.730 | 0.804 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | pp_all |
| Straight ticket | 1.32 | −1.95 | −0.314 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | pp_all |
| Reported turnout | 3.56 | 1.73 | 2.64 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | pp_all |
| Reported turnout | 4.93 | 2.02 | 3.47 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | pp_all |
| Reported turnout | 3.47 | 1.16 | 2.32 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | pp_all |
| Reported turnout | 3.18 | 1.09 | 2.14 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | pp_all |
| Campaign activity | 2.54 | 0.514 | 1.53 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | pp_all |
| Campaign activity | 3.33 | −0.238 | 1.55 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | pp_all |
| Campaign activity | 2.41 | −0.321 | 1.04 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | pp_all |
| Campaign activity | 2.74 | 0.614 | 1.67 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | pp_all |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1.92 | −0.244 | 0.837 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | pp_pres |
| Party-line presidential vote | 2.71 | −0.645 | 1.03 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | pp_pres |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1.72 | −0.601 | 0.562 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | pp_pres |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.938 | −1.50 | −0.283 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | pp_pres |
| Party-line House vote | 2.71 | −0.031 | 1.34 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | pp_pres |
| Party-line House vote | 3.17 | −0.547 | 1.31 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | pp_pres |
| Party-line House vote | 2.56 | −0.500 | 1.03 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | pp_pres |
| Party-line House vote | 1.37 | −1.77 | −0.203 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | pp_pres |
| Straight ticket | 1.96 | −0.845 | 0.557 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | pp_pres |
| Straight ticket | 1.71 | −2.22 | −0.254 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | pp_pres |
| Straight ticket | 2.34 | −0.730 | 0.804 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | pp_pres |
| Straight ticket | 1.32 | −1.95 | −0.314 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | pp_pres |
| Reported turnout | 3.25 | 0.848 | 2.05 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | pp_pres |
| Reported turnout | 4.53 | 1.23 | 2.88 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | pp_pres |
| Reported turnout | 3.12 | 0.331 | 1.72 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | pp_pres |
| Reported turnout | 2.86 | 0.121 | 1.49 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | pp_pres |
| Campaign activity | 2.62 | −0.092 | 1.26 | 2012 to 2024, all interviews | pp_pres |
| Campaign activity | 3.28 | −0.716 | 1.28 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face to face | pp_pres |
| Campaign activity | 2.41 | −0.856 | 0.779 | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web | pp_pres |
| Campaign activity | 2.98 | 0.007 | 1.49 | 1992 to 2008, all interviews | pp_pres |

Views: Percentage points, all earlier years (view = pp_all); Percentage points, presidential years only (view = pp_pres); Log-odds, all earlier years (view = logodds_all); Log-odds, presidential years only (view = logodds_pres).

Note: The 1978 to 1990 comparison sample has no mode weights and was interviewed mainly in person; mode estimates of the later period use weight_ftf and weight_web and cover 2012, 2016 and 2024 only. The 2020 study has no mode weights.

Note: In the presidential-years views the earlier sample is 1980, 1984 and 1988. Presidential voting and the straight ticket exist only in presidential years, so their two baselines coincide.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z; weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode estimates of 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/change.json

### Table 7. In 2012 to 2024 the coldness coefficient exceeds the warmth coefficient for all five behaviors under each of four measures, every one of the 20 intervals lies above zero, and the measures disagree about the change since 1978 to 1990

Coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient, partisans including leaners, by measure of the ratings, 2012 to 2024; units are percentage points per 10 rating points, per standard deviation, or between groups

| behavior | diff_conf_high | diff_conf_low | diff_estimate | n | period | spec_label |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | --- |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.867 | −1.06 | −0.096 | 3,090 | 1978 to 1990 | Per 10 rating points |
| Party-line House vote | 0.864 | −0.794 | 0.035 | 5,930 | 1978 to 1990 | Per 10 rating points |
| Straight ticket | 2.06 | −0.503 | 0.779 | 2,662 | 1978 to 1990 | Per 10 rating points |
| Reported turnout | −0.375 | −1.76 | −1.07 | 10,692 | 1978 to 1990 | Per 10 rating points |
| Campaign activity | 0.699 | −0.666 | 0.016 | 10,606 | 1978 to 1990 | Per 10 rating points |
| Party-line presidential vote | 3.22 | −0.507 | 1.36 | 3,090 | 1978 to 1990 | Per standard deviation |
| Party-line House vote | 2.57 | −0.592 | 0.988 | 5,930 | 1978 to 1990 | Per standard deviation |
| Straight ticket | 4.91 | −0.071 | 2.42 | 2,662 | 1978 to 1990 | Per standard deviation |
| Reported turnout | −0.213 | −2.86 | −1.54 | 10,692 | 1978 to 1990 | Per standard deviation |
| Campaign activity | 1.96 | −0.659 | 0.650 | 10,606 | 1978 to 1990 | Per standard deviation |
| Party-line presidential vote | 3.67 | −3.04 | 0.314 | 3,090 | 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Party-line House vote | 9.19 | 1.95 | 5.57 | 5,930 | 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Straight ticket | 12.84 | 1.62 | 7.23 | 2,662 | 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Reported turnout | −0.132 | −7.10 | −3.61 | 10,692 | 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Campaign activity | 4.87 | −2.60 | 1.14 | 10,606 | 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1.60 | −6.40 | −2.40 | 3,090 | 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Party-line House vote | 7.60 | 0.490 | 4.05 | 5,930 | 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Straight ticket | 14.44 | 3.45 | 8.95 | 2,662 | 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Reported turnout | 0.437 | −5.65 | −2.60 | 10,692 | 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Campaign activity | 7.24 | 0.921 | 4.08 | 10,606 | 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.370 | −1.13 | −0.379 | 5,400 | 1992 to 2008 | Per 10 rating points |
| Party-line House vote | 1.07 | −0.609 | 0.229 | 6,271 | 1992 to 2008 | Per 10 rating points |
| Straight ticket | 1.48 | −0.556 | 0.464 | 4,528 | 1992 to 2008 | Per 10 rating points |
| Reported turnout | 1.86 | 0.287 | 1.07 | 10,010 | 1992 to 2008 | Per 10 rating points |
| Campaign activity | 2.50 | 0.879 | 1.69 | 9,997 | 1992 to 2008 | Per 10 rating points |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1.81 | −1.08 | 0.368 | 5,400 | 1992 to 2008 | Per standard deviation |
| Party-line House vote | 3.06 | −0.158 | 1.45 | 6,271 | 1992 to 2008 | Per standard deviation |
| Straight ticket | 3.86 | −0.080 | 1.89 | 4,528 | 1992 to 2008 | Per standard deviation |
| Reported turnout | 4.17 | 1.14 | 2.65 | 10,010 | 1992 to 2008 | Per standard deviation |
| Campaign activity | 5.70 | 2.55 | 4.13 | 9,997 | 1992 to 2008 | Per standard deviation |
| Party-line presidential vote | 2.82 | −1.99 | 0.412 | 5,400 | 1992 to 2008 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Party-line House vote | 7.22 | 0.758 | 3.99 | 6,271 | 1992 to 2008 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Straight ticket | 8.32 | 0.699 | 4.51 | 4,528 | 1992 to 2008 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Reported turnout | 8.24 | 1.35 | 4.80 | 10,010 | 1992 to 2008 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Campaign activity | 14.15 | 6.30 | 10.23 | 9,997 | 1992 to 2008 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 2.57 | −3.01 | −0.216 | 5,400 | 1992 to 2008 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Party-line House vote | 4.73 | −2.09 | 1.32 | 6,271 | 1992 to 2008 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Straight ticket | 6.96 | −1.35 | 2.81 | 4,528 | 1992 to 2008 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Reported turnout | 8.16 | 2.03 | 5.10 | 10,010 | 1992 to 2008 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Campaign activity | 13.60 | 6.88 | 10.24 | 9,997 | 1992 to 2008 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1.23 | 0.251 | 0.741 | 15,612 | 2012 to 2024 | Per 10 rating points |
| Party-line House vote | 2.13 | 0.986 | 1.56 | 13,912 | 2012 to 2024 | Per 10 rating points |
| Straight ticket | 1.90 | 0.768 | 1.34 | 13,435 | 2012 to 2024 | Per 10 rating points |
| Reported turnout | 2.17 | 0.982 | 1.58 | 18,976 | 2012 to 2024 | Per 10 rating points |
| Campaign activity | 2.30 | 0.794 | 1.54 | 18,697 | 2012 to 2024 | Per 10 rating points |
| Party-line presidential vote | 2.83 | 0.767 | 1.80 | 15,612 | 2012 to 2024 | Per standard deviation |
| Party-line House vote | 4.64 | 2.25 | 3.45 | 13,912 | 2012 to 2024 | Per standard deviation |
| Straight ticket | 4.11 | 1.74 | 2.93 | 13,435 | 2012 to 2024 | Per standard deviation |
| Reported turnout | 4.69 | 2.20 | 3.44 | 18,976 | 2012 to 2024 | Per standard deviation |
| Campaign activity | 5.01 | 1.87 | 3.44 | 18,697 | 2012 to 2024 | Per standard deviation |
| Party-line presidential vote | 7.79 | 5.01 | 6.40 | 15,612 | 2012 to 2024 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Party-line House vote | 10.23 | 6.40 | 8.31 | 13,912 | 2012 to 2024 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Straight ticket | 8.89 | 5.02 | 6.96 | 13,435 | 2012 to 2024 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Reported turnout | 8.87 | 4.15 | 6.51 | 18,976 | 2012 to 2024 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Campaign activity | 12.12 | 5.72 | 8.92 | 18,697 | 2012 to 2024 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 7.87 | 4.09 | 5.98 | 15,612 | 2012 to 2024 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Party-line House vote | 10.68 | 5.99 | 8.34 | 13,912 | 2012 to 2024 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Straight ticket | 8.86 | 4.10 | 6.48 | 13,435 | 2012 to 2024 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Reported turnout | 9.07 | 4.00 | 6.54 | 18,976 | 2012 to 2024 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Campaign activity | 9.48 | 2.93 | 6.20 | 18,697 | 2012 to 2024 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1.92 | −0.244 | 0.837 | 18,702 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Per 10 rating points |
| Party-line House vote | 2.53 | 0.516 | 1.52 | 19,842 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Per 10 rating points |
| Straight ticket | 1.96 | −0.845 | 0.557 | 16,097 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Per 10 rating points |
| Reported turnout | 3.56 | 1.73 | 2.64 | 29,668 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Per 10 rating points |
| Campaign activity | 2.54 | 0.514 | 1.53 | 29,303 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Per 10 rating points |
| Party-line presidential vote | 2.57 | −1.69 | 0.441 | 18,702 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Per standard deviation |
| Party-line House vote | 4.44 | 0.476 | 2.46 | 19,842 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Per standard deviation |
| Straight ticket | 3.27 | −2.25 | 0.511 | 16,097 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Per standard deviation |
| Reported turnout | 6.80 | 3.16 | 4.98 | 29,668 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Per standard deviation |
| Campaign activity | 4.84 | 0.744 | 2.79 | 29,303 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Per standard deviation |
| Party-line presidential vote | 9.71 | 2.45 | 6.08 | 18,702 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Party-line House vote | 6.84 | −1.35 | 2.75 | 19,842 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Straight ticket | 5.66 | −6.21 | −0.274 | 16,097 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Reported turnout | 14.33 | 5.92 | 10.13 | 29,668 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Campaign activity | 12.70 | 2.86 | 7.78 | 29,303 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 15 and 85 |
| Party-line presidential vote | 12.81 | 3.96 | 8.38 | 18,702 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Party-line House vote | 8.55 | 0.034 | 4.29 | 19,842 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Straight ticket | 3.52 | −8.45 | −2.47 | 16,097 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Reported turnout | 13.10 | 5.18 | 9.14 | 29,668 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |
| Campaign activity | 6.67 | −2.43 | 2.12 | 29,303 | Change since 1978 to 1990 | Cut-offs 30 and 70 |

Views: 2012 to 2024 (period = 2012 to 2024); 1992 to 2008 (period = 1992 to 2008); 1978 to 1990 (period = 1978 to 1990); Change since 1978 to 1990 (period = Change since 1978 to 1990).

Note: Intervals are 95% intervals from HC3 robust standard errors (a linear probability model with year fixed effects) and treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample.

Note: Panels are on different scales and cannot be compared in size. The cut-off panels are indicator coefficients in one model per behavior and period; each indicator is adjusted for the other. The change view is the 2012 to 2024 difference minus the 1978 to 1990 difference, with the two standard errors combined in quadrature; its respondent count is the two periods together. The 1978 to 1990 and 1992 to 2008 samples include midterm studies for House voting, reported turnout and campaign activity, and 2012 to 2024 has none.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/cutoffs.json

### Table 8. In 2012 to 2024 the difference between coldness and warmth is positive in all 25 cells of five further checks, with an interval above zero in 21

Coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient, partisans, by check, 2012 to 2024; percentage points per 10 rating points (log-odds in one panel, per scale point of the like-dislike scale in another)

| behavior | diff_conf_high | diff_conf_low | diff_estimate | n | period | spec_label |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | --- |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.457 | −1.78 | −0.662 | 2,345 | 1978 to 1990 | Leaners excluded |
| Party-line House vote | 0.477 | −1.41 | −0.468 | 4,518 | 1978 to 1990 | Leaners excluded |
| Straight ticket | 0.959 | −2.09 | −0.564 | 2,015 | 1978 to 1990 | Leaners excluded |
| Reported turnout | 0.094 | −1.55 | −0.727 | 7,863 | 1978 to 1990 | Leaners excluded |
| Campaign activity | 0.480 | −1.16 | −0.339 | 7,801 | 1978 to 1990 | Leaners excluded |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.446 | −1.56 | −0.560 | 3,021 | 1978 to 1990 | Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed |
| Party-line House vote | 1.76 | 0.004 | 0.880 | 5,830 | 1978 to 1990 | Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed |
| Straight ticket | 2.83 | 0.103 | 1.47 | 2,602 | 1978 to 1990 | Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed |
| Reported turnout | 0.844 | −0.459 | 0.192 | 10,525 | 1978 to 1990 | Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed |
| Campaign activity | 0.920 | −0.384 | 0.268 | 10,442 | 1978 to 1990 | Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.466 | −1.21 | −0.370 | 3,090 | 1978 to 1990 | Each rating in its own model |
| Party-line House vote | 0.659 | −0.841 | −0.091 | 5,930 | 1978 to 1990 | Each rating in its own model |
| Straight ticket | 1.60 | −0.601 | 0.498 | 2,662 | 1978 to 1990 | Each rating in its own model |
| Reported turnout | −0.384 | −1.69 | −1.04 | 10,692 | 1978 to 1990 | Each rating in its own model |
| Campaign activity | 0.623 | −0.666 | −0.021 | 10,606 | 1978 to 1990 | Each rating in its own model |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.169 | 0.013 | 0.091 | 3,090 | 1978 to 1990 | Log-odds scale |
| Party-line House vote | 0.062 | −0.031 | 0.016 | 5,930 | 1978 to 1990 | Log-odds scale |
| Straight ticket | 0.118 | −0.017 | 0.051 | 2,662 | 1978 to 1990 | Log-odds scale |
| Reported turnout | −0.016 | −0.079 | −0.047 | 10,692 | 1978 to 1990 | Log-odds scale |
| Campaign activity | 0.030 | −0.031 | 0.000 | 10,606 | 1978 to 1990 | Log-odds scale |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.543 | −1.13 | −0.296 | 4,029 | 1992 to 2008 | Leaners excluded |
| Party-line House vote | 1.18 | −0.819 | 0.182 | 4,658 | 1992 to 2008 | Leaners excluded |
| Straight ticket | 1.51 | −0.883 | 0.315 | 3,409 | 1992 to 2008 | Leaners excluded |
| Reported turnout | 2.16 | 0.290 | 1.23 | 7,068 | 1992 to 2008 | Leaners excluded |
| Campaign activity | 2.79 | 0.781 | 1.79 | 7,057 | 1992 to 2008 | Leaners excluded |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.027 | −1.69 | −0.833 | 4,637 | 1992 to 2008 | Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed |
| Party-line House vote | 1.66 | −0.240 | 0.710 | 5,593 | 1992 to 2008 | Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed |
| Straight ticket | 1.66 | −0.726 | 0.468 | 3,909 | 1992 to 2008 | Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed |
| Reported turnout | 1.98 | 0.432 | 1.21 | 8,970 | 1992 to 2008 | Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed |
| Campaign activity | 1.91 | 0.225 | 1.07 | 8,958 | 1992 to 2008 | Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.057 | −1.18 | −0.563 | 5,400 | 1992 to 2008 | Each rating in its own model |
| Party-line House vote | 0.719 | −0.708 | 0.006 | 6,271 | 1992 to 2008 | Each rating in its own model |
| Straight ticket | 0.956 | −0.696 | 0.130 | 4,528 | 1992 to 2008 | Each rating in its own model |
| Reported turnout | 1.56 | 0.178 | 0.870 | 10,010 | 1992 to 2008 | Each rating in its own model |
| Campaign activity | 2.10 | 0.664 | 1.38 | 9,997 | 1992 to 2008 | Each rating in its own model |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.141 | −0.029 | 0.056 | 5,400 | 1992 to 2008 | Log-odds scale |
| Party-line House vote | 0.088 | −0.021 | 0.034 | 6,271 | 1992 to 2008 | Log-odds scale |
| Straight ticket | 0.120 | −0.018 | 0.051 | 4,528 | 1992 to 2008 | Log-odds scale |
| Reported turnout | 0.101 | 0.018 | 0.060 | 10,010 | 1992 to 2008 | Log-odds scale |
| Campaign activity | 0.108 | 0.037 | 0.073 | 9,997 | 1992 to 2008 | Log-odds scale |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1.30 | −0.759 | 0.270 | 3,127 | 1992 to 2008 | Like-dislike scale |
| Party-line House vote | 3.04 | 0.427 | 1.73 | 2,783 | 1992 to 2008 | Like-dislike scale |
| Straight ticket | 3.25 | 0.393 | 1.82 | 2,662 | 1992 to 2008 | Like-dislike scale |
| Reported turnout | −0.857 | −3.21 | −2.03 | 4,075 | 1992 to 2008 | Like-dislike scale |
| Campaign activity | 3.08 | 0.277 | 1.68 | 4,074 | 1992 to 2008 | Like-dislike scale |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.896 | −0.279 | 0.308 | 11,862 | 2012 to 2024 | Leaners excluded |
| Party-line House vote | 1.40 | −0.054 | 0.672 | 10,454 | 2012 to 2024 | Leaners excluded |
| Straight ticket | 1.45 | 0.132 | 0.791 | 10,207 | 2012 to 2024 | Leaners excluded |
| Reported turnout | 2.24 | 0.788 | 1.51 | 13,947 | 2012 to 2024 | Leaners excluded |
| Campaign activity | 2.16 | 0.243 | 1.20 | 13,739 | 2012 to 2024 | Leaners excluded |
| Party-line presidential vote | 1.09 | 0.052 | 0.569 | 14,882 | 2012 to 2024 | Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed |
| Party-line House vote | 1.86 | 0.611 | 1.24 | 13,254 | 2012 to 2024 | Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed |
| Straight ticket | 1.97 | 0.734 | 1.35 | 12,804 | 2012 to 2024 | Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed |
| Reported turnout | 1.96 | 0.775 | 1.37 | 18,105 | 2012 to 2024 | Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed |
| Campaign activity | 2.00 | 0.488 | 1.25 | 18,007 | 2012 to 2024 | Party, strength, education, age and interest held fixed |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.878 | 0.129 | 0.504 | 15,612 | 2012 to 2024 | Each rating in its own model |
| Party-line House vote | 1.60 | 0.732 | 1.17 | 13,912 | 2012 to 2024 | Each rating in its own model |
| Straight ticket | 1.39 | 0.545 | 0.966 | 13,435 | 2012 to 2024 | Each rating in its own model |
| Reported turnout | 1.65 | 0.737 | 1.19 | 18,976 | 2012 to 2024 | Each rating in its own model |
| Campaign activity | 1.73 | 0.573 | 1.15 | 18,697 | 2012 to 2024 | Each rating in its own model |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.141 | 0.019 | 0.080 | 15,612 | 2012 to 2024 | Log-odds scale |
| Party-line House vote | 0.180 | 0.077 | 0.129 | 13,912 | 2012 to 2024 | Log-odds scale |
| Straight ticket | 0.180 | 0.066 | 0.123 | 13,435 | 2012 to 2024 | Log-odds scale |
| Reported turnout | 0.147 | 0.064 | 0.106 | 18,976 | 2012 to 2024 | Log-odds scale |
| Campaign activity | 0.094 | 0.032 | 0.063 | 18,697 | 2012 to 2024 | Log-odds scale |
| Party-line presidential vote | 0.806 | −0.164 | 0.321 | 15,238 | 2012 to 2024 | Like-dislike scale |
| Party-line House vote | 1.34 | 0.200 | 0.771 | 13,586 | 2012 to 2024 | Like-dislike scale |
| Straight ticket | 2.10 | 0.944 | 1.52 | 13,126 | 2012 to 2024 | Like-dislike scale |
| Reported turnout | 0.916 | −0.360 | 0.278 | 18,479 | 2012 to 2024 | Like-dislike scale |
| Campaign activity | 2.38 | 0.878 | 1.63 | 18,475 | 2012 to 2024 | Like-dislike scale |

Views: 2012 to 2024 (period = 2012 to 2024); 1992 to 2008 (period = 1992 to 2008); 1978 to 1990 (period = 1978 to 1990).

Note: Intervals are 95% intervals from HC3 robust standard errors (a linear probability model with year fixed effects) and treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample. The log-odds panel uses a probability-weight sandwich covariance.

Note: The like-dislike scale is the 0 to 10 scale for each party, asked in 1996, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/checks.json

### Table 9. In 2012 to 2024 coldness went with more persuading others and giving money than warmth did, and the two went with similar amounts of displaying a button

Percentage points of each campaign activity per 10 points on the 0 to 100 thermometer, one linear probability model per activity and period with both ratings and year fixed effects, partisans including leaners

| activity | cold_conf_high | cold_conf_low | cold_estimate | diff_conf_high | diff_conf_low | diff_estimate | n | period | warm_conf_high | warm_conf_low | warm_estimate |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Tried to persuade others how to vote | 2.37 | 1.55 | 1.96 | 1.11 | −0.144 | 0.485 | 10,648 | 1978 to 1990 | 1.94 | 1.00 | 1.47 |
| Attended a meeting or rally | 0.816 | 0.288 | 0.552 | 0.183 | −0.605 | −0.211 | 10,656 | 1978 to 1990 | 1.05 | 0.475 | 0.763 |
| Worked for a party or candidate | 0.701 | 0.300 | 0.501 | 0.420 | −0.159 | 0.130 | 10,646 | 1978 to 1990 | 0.588 | 0.153 | 0.371 |
| Displayed a button or sticker | 0.965 | 0.420 | 0.692 | −0.116 | −0.898 | −0.507 | 10,656 | 1978 to 1990 | 1.50 | 0.903 | 1.20 |
| Gave money to a party or candidate | 1.21 | 0.656 | 0.933 | 0.705 | −0.116 | 0.295 | 10,634 | 1978 to 1990 | 0.943 | 0.334 | 0.638 |
| Tried to persuade others how to vote | 4.20 | 3.22 | 3.71 | 3.62 | 2.07 | 2.84 | 10,006 | 1992 to 2008 | 1.45 | 0.293 | 0.869 |
| Attended a meeting or rally | 1.19 | 0.645 | 0.916 | 0.594 | −0.158 | 0.218 | 10,006 | 1992 to 2008 | 0.991 | 0.404 | 0.698 |
| Worked for a party or candidate | 0.775 | 0.381 | 0.578 | 0.525 | −0.009 | 0.258 | 10,004 | 1992 to 2008 | 0.523 | 0.118 | 0.320 |
| Displayed a button or sticker | 1.88 | 1.13 | 1.51 | 0.452 | −0.675 | −0.111 | 10,007 | 1992 to 2008 | 2.03 | 1.20 | 1.62 |
| Gave money to a party or candidate | 1.95 | 1.28 | 1.61 | 1.45 | 0.470 | 0.962 | 10,004 | 1992 to 2008 | 0.999 | 0.305 | 0.652 |
| Tried to persuade others how to vote | 3.54 | 2.62 | 3.08 | 2.61 | 1.13 | 1.87 | 18,886 | 2012 to 2024 | 1.68 | 0.730 | 1.21 |
| Attended a meeting or rally | 0.852 | 0.388 | 0.620 | 0.705 | −0.076 | 0.314 | 18,886 | 2012 to 2024 | 0.555 | 0.057 | 0.306 |
| Worked for a party or candidate | 0.662 | 0.336 | 0.499 | 0.650 | 0.035 | 0.343 | 18,892 | 2012 to 2024 | 0.358 | −0.046 | 0.156 |
| Displayed a button or sticker | 2.23 | 1.55 | 1.89 | 0.430 | −0.686 | −0.128 | 18,889 | 2012 to 2024 | 2.39 | 1.65 | 2.02 |
| Gave money to a party or candidate | 3.02 | 2.40 | 2.71 | 2.45 | 1.42 | 1.94 | 18,708 | 2012 to 2024 | 1.12 | 0.433 | 0.774 |

Views: 2012 to 2024 (period = 2012 to 2024); 1992 to 2008 (period = 1992 to 2008); 1978 to 1990 (period = 1978 to 1990).

Note: Intervals are 95% intervals from HC3 robust standard errors (a linear probability model with year fixed effects) and treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample.

Note: The 1978 to 1990 and 1992 to 2008 samples include midterm studies, and 2012 to 2024 has none. The activity questions are the cumulative-file items VCF0717 (tried to influence others), VCF0718 (attended a meeting or rally), VCF0719 (worked for a party or candidate), VCF0720 (displayed a button or sticker) and VCF0721 (gave money).

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1978-2024; weighted (VCF0009z)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/items.json

## All estimates

Every fact in facts.json (186), sorted by id.

| Fact id | Value | Unit | Estimand | Population | Period | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Note |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| act_any_chg | 1.5 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 0.5 to 2.5 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| act_any_chg_ftf | 1.5 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −0.2 to 3.3 |   | weight_ftf (VCF0009x) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| act_any_chg_logit | 0.06 | log-odds of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, log-odds coefficient in a weighted logistic regression with year fixed effects, per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 0.02 to 0.11 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| act_any_chg_logit_p | 0.05 | log-odds of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, log-odds coefficient in a weighted logistic regression with year fixed effects, per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only | 95% CI 0.00 to 0.11 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| act_any_chg_p | 1.3 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only | 95% CI −0.1 to 2.6 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| act_any_chg_web | 1.0 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −0.3 to 2.4 |   | weight_web (VCF0009y) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| act_any_cold_slope | 0.4 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade | change per decade in the coldness coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 1978 to 2024 (18 surveys) | 95% CI 0.2 to 0.6 | 39,300 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| act_any_diff_1 | 0.0 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −0.7 to 0.7 | 10,606 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| act_any_diff_2 | 1.7 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 1992 to 2008 | 95% CI 0.9 to 2.5 | 9,997 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| act_any_diff_3 | 1.5 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 0.8 to 2.3 | 18,697 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| act_any_diff_3y | 1.14 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 2012, 2016 and 2024, all interviews | 95% CI 0.23 to 2.05 | 12,248 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| act_any_diff_ftf | 1.6 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews | 95% CI −0.1 to 3.2 | 3,465 | weight_ftf (VCF0009x) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| act_any_diff_web | 1.1 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews | 95% CI −0.1 to 2.2 | 6,822 | weight_web (VCF0009y) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| act_any_diffp_1 | 0.3 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only | 95% CI −0.8 to 1.4 | 4,285 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| act_any_noleaner_diff_3 | 1.2 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, leaners excluded, per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 0.2 to 2.2 | 13,739 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| act_any_slope | 0.3 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade | change per decade in the coldness-minus-warmth difference, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 1978 to 2024 (18 surveys) | 95% CI 0.0 to 0.6 | 39,300 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| act_any_warm_slope | 0.1 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade | change per decade in the warmth coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 1978 to 2024 (18 surveys) | 95% CI −0.1 to 0.3 | 39,300 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| act_any_yr_2020 | 2.4 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, one linear probability model for the survey year (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 2020 | 95% CI 1.0 to 3.7 | 6,449 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| act_any_yr_2024 | 0.4 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on any campaign activity, one linear probability model for the survey year (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 2024 | 95% CI −1.3 to 2.1 | 4,411 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_act_any_cold_3 | 60.0% | percent of the group | weighted share, any campaign activity, group: cold only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 58.3% to 61.8% | 5,510 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_act_any_warm_3 | 54.6% | percent of the group | weighted share, any campaign activity, group: warm only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 51.6% to 57.5% | 2,011 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_house_both_1 | 89.1% | percent of the group | weighted share, party-line House vote, group: both (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 86.3% to 91.4% | 571 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_house_cold_1 | 89.9% | percent of the group | weighted share, party-line House vote, group: cold only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 85.5% to 93.0% | 247 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_house_cold_3 | 95.0% | percent of the group | weighted share, party-line House vote, group: cold only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 94.0% to 95.8% | 4,397 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_house_warm_1 | 79.8% | percent of the group | weighted share, party-line House vote, group: warm only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 78.0% to 81.5% | 1,995 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_house_warm_3 | 89.9% | percent of the group | weighted share, party-line House vote, group: warm only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 87.5% to 91.9% | 1,376 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_pres_both_3 | 99.2% | percent of the group | weighted share, party-line presidential vote, group: both (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 98.7% to 99.5% | 4,393 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_pres_cold_3 | 98.1% | percent of the group | weighted share, party-line presidential vote, group: cold only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 97.5% to 98.5% | 4,774 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_pres_neither_3 | 83.2% | percent of the group | weighted share, party-line presidential vote, group: neither (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 81.7% to 84.6% | 4,794 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_pres_warm_3 | 95.4% | percent of the group | weighted share, party-line presidential vote, group: warm only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 93.8% to 96.6% | 1,651 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_straight_both_1 | 87.3% | percent of the group | weighted share, straight-ticket vote, group: both (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 83.1% to 90.5% | 306 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_straight_cold_1 | 88.6% | percent of the group | weighted share, straight-ticket vote, group: cold only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 81.1% to 93.3% | 105 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_straight_cold_3 | 94.9% | percent of the group | weighted share, straight-ticket vote, group: cold only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 93.9% to 95.7% | 4,232 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_straight_warm_1 | 76.9% | percent of the group | weighted share, straight-ticket vote, group: warm only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 74.1% to 79.5% | 952 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_straight_warm_3 | 90.3% | percent of the group | weighted share, straight-ticket vote, group: warm only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 87.9% to 92.3% | 1,351 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_turnout_cold_1 | 63.1% | percent of the group | weighted share, turnout, group: cold only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 58.7% to 67.4% | 472 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_turnout_cold_3 | 87.9% | percent of the group | weighted share, turnout, group: cold only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 86.7% to 89.0% | 5,582 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_turnout_warm_1 | 68.6% | percent of the group | weighted share, turnout, group: warm only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 67.0% to 70.1% | 3,405 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_turnout_warm_3 | 82.2% | percent of the group | weighted share, turnout, group: warm only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 79.8% to 84.3% | 2,043 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cellgap_act_any_1 | 3.5 | percentage points | difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, any campaign activity (95% interval, independent groups) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −1.3 to 8.3 | 3,848 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cellgap_act_any_3 | 5.4 | percentage points | difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, any campaign activity (95% interval, independent groups) | partisans, leaners included, who answered all five campaign activity questions | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 2.0 to 8.9 | 7,521 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cellgap_chg_house | −5.0 | percentage points | change in the difference between the share among partisans cold only and the share among partisans warm only, party-line House vote (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −9.8 to −0.3 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cellgap_chg_straight | −7.1 | percentage points | change in the difference between the share among partisans cold only and the share among partisans warm only, straight-ticket vote (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −14.2 to 0.0 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cellgap_chg_turnout | 11.2 | percentage points | change in the difference between the share among partisans cold only and the share among partisans warm only, turnout (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 5.9 to 16.5 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cellgap_house_1 | 10.1 | percentage points | difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, party-line House vote (95% interval, independent groups) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 5.9 to 14.2 | 2,242 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cellgap_house_3 | 5.1 | percentage points | difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, party-line House vote (95% interval, independent groups) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 2.7 to 7.4 | 5,773 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cellgap_pres_1 | 6.0 | percentage points | difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, party-line presidential vote (95% interval, independent groups) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 2.3 to 9.6 | 1,221 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cellgap_pres_3 | 2.6 | percentage points | difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, party-line presidential vote (95% interval, independent groups) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 1.2 to 4.1 | 6,425 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cellgap_straight_1 | 11.7 | percentage points | difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, straight-ticket vote (95% interval, independent groups) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 5.0 to 18.4 | 1,057 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cellgap_straight_3 | 4.6 | percentage points | difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, straight-ticket vote (95% interval, independent groups) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 2.2 to 6.9 | 5,583 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cellgap_turnout_1 | −5.5 | percentage points | difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, turnout (95% interval, independent groups) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −10.1 to −0.8 | 3,877 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cellgap_turnout_3 | 5.7 | percentage points | difference between the share among partisans very cold toward the other party only and the share among those very warm toward their own party only, turnout (95% interval, independent groups) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 3.2 to 8.3 | 7,625 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| corr_1 | −0.06 | correlation coefficient | weighted correlation between the rating of the own party and the rating of the other party, each centered on its survey-year mean (Fisher z interval on the Kish effective sample size) | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −0.08 to −0.04 | 11,264 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| corr_3 | −0.23 | correlation coefficient | weighted correlation between the rating of the own party and the rating of the other party, each centered on its survey-year mean (Fisher z interval on the Kish effective sample size) | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI −0.25 to −0.21 | 20,943 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cut_cold_loose | 30 | points on the feeling thermometer | cut-off chosen by the author (a definition, not an estimate) | cut-off between a rating that counts as very cold toward the other party and one that does not | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cut_cold_strict | 15 | points on the feeling thermometer | cut-off chosen by the author (a definition, not an estimate) | cut-off between a rating that counts as very cold toward the other party and one that does not | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cut_warm_loose | 70 | points on the feeling thermometer | cut-off chosen by the author (a definition, not an estimate) | cut-off between a rating that counts as very warm toward the own party and one that does not | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cut_warm_strict | 85 | points on the feeling thermometer | cut-off chosen by the author (a definition, not an estimate) | cut-off between a rating that counts as very warm toward the own party and one that does not | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| floor_cell | 100 | respondents | minimum number of respondents (and of effective respondents) for a plotted cell | cells of a table of shares or coefficients | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| floor_year | 150 | respondents | minimum number of respondents who answered the behavior question for a yearly estimate | yearly models | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gmode_ftf_cold | 19.5% | percent of partisans | weighted share in the group cold only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews | 95% CI 17.8% to 21.2% | 3,787 | weight_ftf (VCF0009x) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gmode_ftf_warm | 13.5% | percent of partisans | weighted share in the group warm only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews | 95% CI 12.1% to 15.0% | 3,787 | weight_ftf (VCF0009x) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gmode_web_cold | 29.1% | percent of partisans | weighted share in the group cold only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews | 95% CI 27.8% to 30.4% | 7,712 | weight_web (VCF0009y) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gmode_web_warm | 11.0% | percent of partisans | weighted share in the group warm only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews | 95% CI 10.1% to 11.9% | 7,712 | weight_web (VCF0009y) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gshare_strict_both_1 | 8.9% | percent of partisans | weighted share in the group both (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 8.4% to 9.4% | 11,264 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gshare_strict_both_3 | 25.2% | percent of partisans | weighted share in the group both (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 24.4% to 26.0% | 20,943 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gshare_strict_cold_1 | 4.4% | percent of partisans | weighted share in the group cold only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 4.0% to 4.8% | 11,264 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gshare_strict_cold_3 | 28.1% | percent of partisans | weighted share in the group cold only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 27.3% to 28.9% | 20,943 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gshare_strict_warm_1 | 32.0% | percent of partisans | weighted share in the group warm only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 31.2% to 32.9% | 11,264 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gshare_strict_warm_3 | 10.5% | percent of partisans | weighted share in the group warm only (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 9.9% to 11.1% | 20,943 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_alone_diff_3 | 1.2 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, each feeling in its own model, per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 0.7 to 1.6 | 13,912 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_chg | 1.5 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 0.5 to 2.5 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_chg_ftf | 1.5 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −0.1 to 3.1 |   | weight_ftf (VCF0009x) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_chg_logit | 0.11 | log-odds of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, log-odds coefficient in a weighted logistic regression with year fixed effects, per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 0.04 to 0.18 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_chg_logit_ftf | 0.16 | log-odds of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, log-odds coefficient in a weighted logistic regression with year fixed effects, per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 0.00 to 0.31 |   | weight_ftf (VCF0009x) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_chg_logit_p | 0.10 | log-odds of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, log-odds coefficient in a weighted logistic regression with year fixed effects, per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only | 95% CI 0.02 to 0.19 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_chg_logit_web | 0.08 | log-odds of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, log-odds coefficient in a weighted logistic regression with year fixed effects, per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −0.01 to 0.18 |   | weight_web (VCF0009y) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_chg_loose | 4.29 | percentage points of the outcome between groups | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the loose cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 0.03 to 8.55 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_chg_p | 1.3 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only | 95% CI 0.0 to 2.7 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_chg_strict | 2.7 | percentage points of the outcome between groups | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the strict cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −1.4 to 6.8 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_chg_web | 1.2 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 0.0 to 2.4 |   | weight_web (VCF0009y) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_cold_3 | 3.5 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness toward the other party on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 3.1 to 3.9 | 13,912 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_cold_slope | 0.1 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade | change per decade in the coldness coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 1978 to 2024 (18 surveys) | 95% CI −0.1 to 0.3 | 26,113 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_controls_diff_3 | 1.2 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, party, strength of identification, education, age and interest in the campaign held fixed, per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 0.6 to 1.9 | 13,254 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_diff_1 | 0.0 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −0.8 to 0.9 | 5,930 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_diff_2 | 0.2 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 1992 to 2008 | 95% CI −0.6 to 1.1 | 6,271 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_diff_3 | 1.6 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 1.0 to 2.1 | 13,912 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_diff_ftf | 1.5 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews | 95% CI 0.2 to 2.9 | 2,283 | weight_ftf (VCF0009x) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_diff_web | 1.2 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews | 95% CI 0.4 to 2.1 | 4,990 | weight_web (VCF0009y) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_diffp_1 | 0.2 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only | 95% CI −1.0 to 1.5 | 2,792 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_noleaner_diff_3 | 0.7 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, leaners excluded, per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI −0.1 to 1.4 | 10,454 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_slope | 0.5 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade | change per decade in the coldness-minus-warmth difference, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 1978 to 2024 (18 surveys) | 95% CI 0.2 to 0.7 | 26,113 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_slope_p | 0.5 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade | change per decade in the coldness-minus-warmth difference, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 1980 to 2024, presidential election years only | 95% CI 0.1 to 0.8 | 21,581 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_strict_diff_1 | 5.6 | percentage points of the outcome between groups | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the strict cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 1.9 to 9.2 | 5,930 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_warm_3 | 1.9 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | warmth toward the own party on party-line House vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 1.5 to 2.3 | 13,912 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_warm_slope | −0.4 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade | change per decade in the warmth coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 1978 to 2024 (18 surveys) | 95% CI −0.5 to −0.2 | 26,113 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_yr_2020 | 2.3 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, one linear probability model for the survey year (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2020 | 95% CI 1.3 to 3.3 | 4,929 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| house_yr_2024 | 0.6 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line House vote, one linear probability model for the survey year (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2024 | 95% CI −0.5 to 1.7 | 3,515 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| item_button_diff_1 | −0.5 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on act_button, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the question on whether they displayed a button or sticker | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −0.9 to −0.1 | 10,656 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| item_button_diff_3 | −0.1 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on act_button, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the question on whether they displayed a button or sticker | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI −0.7 to 0.4 | 18,889 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| item_meeting_diff_3 | 0.3 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on act_meeting, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the question on whether they attended a political meeting or rally | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI −0.1 to 0.7 | 18,886 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| item_money_diff_3 | 1.9 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on act_money, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the question on whether they gave money to a party or candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 1.4 to 2.4 | 18,708 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| item_persuade_diff_3 | 1.9 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on act_persuade, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the question on whether they tried to persuade others how to vote | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 1.1 to 2.6 | 18,886 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| item_work_diff_3 | 0.3 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on act_work, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the question on whether they worked for a party or candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 0.0 to 0.7 | 18,892 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| lean_anes_2020 | 56.0% | percent of respondents who reported a major-party presidential vote | weighted share reporting a Democratic vote (95% Wilson interval) | ANES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate | 2020 | 95% CI 54.3% to 57.7% | 6,119 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| lean_anes_2024 | 55.3% | percent of respondents who reported a major-party presidential vote | weighted share reporting a Democratic vote (95% Wilson interval) | ANES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate | 2024 | 95% CI 53.0% to 57.5% | 3,948 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| lean_county_2020 | 52.3% | percent of the two-party presidential vote | Democratic share of the two-party vote, summed over counties | votes cast for the Democratic or Republican candidate in all counties except Alaska | 2020 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| lean_county_2024 | 49.3% | percent of the two-party presidential vote | Democratic share of the two-party vote, summed over counties | votes cast for the Democratic or Republican candidate in all counties except Alaska | 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| leaner_share_1 | 27% | percent of partisans | weighted share who lean toward a party and do not identify with it | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 1978 to 1990 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| leaner_share_3 | 27% | percent of partisans | weighted share who lean toward a party and do not identify with it | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 2012 to 2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| midterm_share_1 | 56% | percent of respondents | share of the sample interviewed in a midterm election year (respondent count) | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 1978 to 1990 |   | 11,264 | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| midterm_share_2 | 25% | percent of respondents | share of the sample interviewed in a midterm election year (respondent count) | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 1992 to 2008 |   | 10,856 | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_chk_cells | 25 | count | count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption) | estimates shown in the chapter's figures | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_chk_excl | 21 | count | count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption) | estimates shown in the chapter's figures | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_chk_incl | 4 | count | count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption) | estimates shown in the chapter's figures | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_cut_cells | 20 | count | count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption) | estimates shown in the chapter's figures | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_cut_chg_cells | 20 | count | count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption) | estimates shown in the chapter's figures | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_cut_chg_pos | 12 | count | count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption) | estimates shown in the chapter's figures | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_cut_incl_1 | 12 | count | count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption) | estimates shown in the chapter's figures | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_ld_waves | 7 | surveys | count of survey years | ANES time-series studies with the like-dislike scale for both parties | 1996 to 2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_resp | 43,063 | respondents | count of respondents in the sample | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | 18 surveys, 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_waves | 18 | surveys | count of survey years | ANES time-series studies with both party thermometers | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_yr | 78 | count | count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption) | estimates shown in the chapter's figures | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_yr_neg | 3 | count | count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption) | estimates shown in the chapter's figures | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_yr_pos | 14 | count | count of estimates with the stated property (see the figure caption) | estimates shown in the chapter's figures | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_alone_diff_3 | 0.5 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, each feeling in its own model, per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 0.1 to 0.9 | 15,612 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_chg | 0.8 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −0.2 to 1.9 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_chg_hi | 1.9 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | upper end of the 95% interval for the change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods (independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_chg_logit | −0.01 | log-odds of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, log-odds coefficient in a weighted logistic regression with year fixed effects, per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −0.11 to 0.09 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_chg_loose | 8.4 | percentage points of the outcome between groups | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the loose cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 4.0 to 12.8 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_chg_sd | 0.4 | percentage points of the outcome per standard deviation of the rating | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per within-year standard deviation (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −1.7 to 2.6 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_chg_strict | 6.1 | percentage points of the outcome between groups | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the strict cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 2.5 to 9.7 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_cold_slope | −0.1 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade | change per decade in the coldness coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 1978 to 2024 (18 surveys) | 95% CI −0.3 to 0.1 | 24,102 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_controls_diff_3 | 0.6 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, party, strength of identification, education, age and interest in the campaign held fixed, per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 0.1 to 1.1 | 14,882 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_diff_1 | −0.1 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −1.1 to 0.9 | 3,090 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_diff_2 | −0.4 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 1992 to 2008 | 95% CI −1.1 to 0.4 | 5,400 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_diff_3 | 0.7 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 0.3 to 1.2 | 15,612 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_diff_3y | 0.54 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012, 2016 and 2024, all interviews | 95% CI −0.05 to 1.12 | 10,032 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_diff_ftf | 0.9 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews | 95% CI −0.4 to 2.3 | 2,620 | weight_ftf (VCF0009x) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_diff_web | 0.5 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews | 95% CI −0.2 to 1.1 | 5,586 | weight_web (VCF0009y) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_ld_diff_3 | 0.3 | percentage points of the outcome per scale point of the like-dislike scale | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, the 0 to 10 like-dislike scale for each party, per scale point (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI −0.2 to 0.8 | 15,238 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_logit_diff_1 | 0.09 | log-odds of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, log-odds coefficient in a weighted logistic regression with year fixed effects, per 10 rating points (95% interval, probability-weight sandwich) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 0.01 to 0.17 | 3,090 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_logit_diff_3 | 0.08 | log-odds of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, log-odds coefficient in a weighted logistic regression with year fixed effects, per 10 rating points (95% interval, probability-weight sandwich) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 0.02 to 0.14 | 15,612 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_noleaner_diff_3 | 0.3 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on party-line presidential vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, leaners excluded, per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI −0.3 to 0.9 | 11,862 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_slope | 0.3 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade | change per decade in the coldness-minus-warmth difference, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 1978 to 2024 (18 surveys) | 95% CI 0.1 to 0.6 | 24,102 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pres_warm_slope | −0.4 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade | change per decade in the warmth coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 1978 to 2024 (18 surveys) | 95% CI −0.6 to −0.2 | 24,102 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rate_house_1 | 77.1% | percent of partisans | weighted share acting (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 76.0% to 78.1% | 5,930 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rate_house_3 | 90.0% | percent of partisans | weighted share acting (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party House candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 89.3% to 90.7% | 13,912 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rate_pres_1 | 85.9% | percent of partisans | weighted share acting (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 84.6% to 87.0% | 3,090 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rate_pres_3 | 93.3% | percent of partisans | weighted share acting (95% Wilson interval) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 92.7% to 93.8% | 15,612 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| step | 10 | points on the feeling thermometer | size of the change in a rating that a coefficient describes (a definition, not an estimate) | the unit in which coefficients are reported | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| straight_chg | 0.6 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −0.8 to 2.0 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| straight_chg_loose | −2.5 | percentage points of the outcome between groups | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the loose cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −8.5 to 3.5 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| straight_chg_strict | −0.3 | percentage points of the outcome between groups | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the strict cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −6.2 to 5.7 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| straight_cold_slope | −0.2 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade | change per decade in the coldness coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House | 1978 to 2024 (18 surveys) | 95% CI −0.4 to 0.0 | 20,625 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| straight_diff_1 | 0.8 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on straight-ticket vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −0.5 to 2.1 | 2,662 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| straight_diff_3 | 1.3 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on straight-ticket vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 0.8 to 1.9 | 13,435 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| straight_noleaner_diff_3 | 0.8 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on straight-ticket vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, leaners excluded, per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 0.1 to 1.4 | 10,207 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| straight_slope | 0.2 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade | change per decade in the coldness-minus-warmth difference, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House | 1978 to 2024 (18 surveys) | 95% CI −0.1 to 0.6 | 20,625 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| straight_strict_diff_1 | 7.2 | percentage points of the outcome between groups | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on straight-ticket vote, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the strict cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 1.6 to 12.8 | 2,662 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| straight_warm_slope | −0.4 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade | change per decade in the warmth coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who reported voting for a major-party candidate for both president and the House | 1978 to 2024 (18 surveys) | 95% CI −0.6 to −0.2 | 20,625 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| therm_max | 100 | points on the feeling thermometer | highest answer the feeling thermometer allows (a definition of the scale, not an estimate) | answers to the feeling thermometer | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| therm_min | 0 | points on the feeling thermometer | lowest answer the feeling thermometer allows (a definition of the scale, not an estimate) | answers to the feeling thermometer | 1978 to 2024 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_chg | 2.6 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 1.7 to 3.6 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_chg_ftf | 3.5 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 2.0 to 4.9 |   | weight_ftf (VCF0009x) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_chg_loose | 9.1 | percentage points of the outcome between groups | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the loose cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 5.2 to 13.1 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_chg_p | 2.0 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only | 95% CI 0.8 to 3.3 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_chg_p_ftf | 2.9 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews minus 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only | 95% CI 1.2 to 4.5 |   | weight_ftf (VCF0009x) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_chg_p_web | 1.7 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews minus 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only | 95% CI 0.3 to 3.1 |   | weight_web (VCF0009y) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_chg_sd | 5.0 | percentage points of the outcome per standard deviation of the rating | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per within-year standard deviation (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 3.2 to 6.8 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_chg_strict | 10.1 | percentage points of the outcome between groups | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings as indicators (other party rated at or below the strict cut-off, own party at or above it) (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012 to 2024 minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 5.9 to 14.3 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_chg_web | 2.3 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | change in the coldness-minus-warmth difference between the two periods, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, independent samples) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews minus 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI 1.2 to 3.5 |   | weight_web (VCF0009y) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_cold_slope | 0.2 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade | change per decade in the coldness coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 1978 to 2024 (18 surveys) | 95% CI 0.1 to 0.4 | 39,678 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_diff_1 | −1.1 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 1978 to 1990 | 95% CI −1.8 to −0.4 | 10,692 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_diff_2 | 1.1 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 1992 to 2008 | 95% CI 0.3 to 1.9 | 10,010 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_diff_3 | 1.6 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 1.0 to 2.2 | 18,976 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_diff_ftf | 2.4 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012, 2016 and 2024, face-to-face interviews | 95% CI 1.1 to 3.7 | 3,476 | weight_ftf (VCF0009x) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_diff_web | 1.3 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012, 2016 and 2024, web interviews | 95% CI 0.3 to 2.2 | 6,861 | weight_web (VCF0009y) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_diffm_1 | −1.5 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 1978 to 1990, midterm years only | 95% CI −2.4 to −0.5 | 6,348 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_diffp_1 | −0.5 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, both feelings per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 1978 to 1990, presidential election years only | 95% CI −1.5 to 0.6 | 4,344 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_ld_diff_3 | 0.3 | percentage points of the outcome per scale point of the like-dislike scale | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, the 0 to 10 like-dislike scale for each party, per scale point (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI −0.4 to 0.9 | 18,479 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_noleaner_diff_3 | 1.5 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | coldness coefficient minus warmth coefficient on turnout, coefficient in a weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects, leaners excluded, per 10 rating points (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 0.8 to 2.2 | 13,947 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_slope | 0.5 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade | change per decade in the coldness-minus-warmth difference, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 1978 to 2024 (18 surveys) | 95% CI 0.3 to 0.8 | 39,678 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_slope_p | 0.3 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade | change per decade in the coldness-minus-warmth difference, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 1980 to 2024, presidential election years only | 95% CI 0.0 to 0.6 | 30,661 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| turnout_warm_slope | −0.3 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points, per decade | change per decade in the warmth coefficient, weighted linear probability model with year fixed effects and both feelings interacted with decades since 2001 (95% interval, HC3) | partisans, leaners included, who answered the turnout question | 1978 to 2024 (18 surveys) | 95% CI −0.5 to −0.1 | 39,678 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wcheck_max | 0.5 | percentage points of the outcome per 10 rating points | largest absolute difference, across five outcomes and those surveys, between a yearly coefficient (coldness, warmth or their difference) with the full-sample weight and with the post-election weight | partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties | the 7 surveys that have a post-election weight |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) and weight_postelection | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |

## Definitions

- Partisan leaner: A respondent who first says they are independent but, when asked, says they lean toward one party. Most figures group leaners with the party they lean toward, and each chapter says which grouping it uses.
- Feeling thermometer: A 0 to 100 rating of a group or person, where 0 is the coldest feeling and 100 the warmest. The American National Election Studies ask respondents to rate parties, candidates and social groups this way.
- Percentage point: The unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused.
- Survey weights: Numbers that scale each respondent so the sample matches the population on known traits such as age, race, education and region. A weighted average counts a respondent with a large weight for more than one with a small weight.
- HC3 robust standard errors: A way of computing standard errors that stays valid when the spread of the outcome differs across respondents, with a correction for small samples. The book uses it for regressions that have no clusters.
- Effective sample size: The number of equally weighted respondents that would give the same precision as the weighted sample. It is smaller than the raw count when the weights vary a lot, and it sets how wide the confidence interval is.
- Linear probability model: A regression of a yes-or-no outcome on predictors, fitted by least squares so that each coefficient is a change in the probability of yes. The book weights it and reports robust standard errors.

## Methods

Sample. Respondents to the American National Election Studies (ANES) time series, from the Cumulative Data File, who identify as Democrats or Republicans on the seven-point party identification scale with leaners included (codes 1 to 3 and 5 to 7) and who gave a valid rating of both parties on the 0 to 100 feeling thermometer: 43,063 respondents in 18 surveys from 1978 to 2024 (the surveys with party thermometers; the 2002 study has none). Pure independents are left out because they have no own party. Each survey is a separate cross-section of people, so every result describes how ratings and behavior go together among partisans interviewed in the same year and not how any one person changed.

Feelings. Warmth is the rating of the respondent's own party. Coldness is 100 minus the rating of the other party, so that a higher value is colder and a coefficient on coldness can be set beside a coefficient on warmth. Coefficients are reported per 10 rating points, or per standard deviation (each rating standardized within its survey year over the whole paired sample, weighted), or between groups. The classification used for the group comparisons marks a partisan as very cold toward the other party when the other-party rating is 15 or lower and as very warm toward the own party when the own-party rating is 85 or higher (the strict cut-offs, each 35 points from the midpoint of 50), with 30 and 70 as the looser pair (20 points from the midpoint). Four groups follow: neither, warm only, cold only and both. Respondents give 15, 30, 70 and 85 more often than the values next to them, so each cut-off sits on a common answer and includes it. A second measure of feeling, the 0 to 10 like-dislike scale for each party (asked in 1996, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024), is put in the same direction, and one scale point corresponds to 10 rating points.

Behavior. Party-line presidential vote is a vote for the own party's candidate among partisans who reported voting for a major-party presidential candidate (VCF0704); defection is one minus this share. Party-line House vote is the same for the House candidate (VCF0707). Straight ticket is a vote for the same party for president and the House among partisans who reported both, the complement of ticket splitting (VCF0709); it is rebuilt from VCF0704 and VCF0707 in every year because the file carries VCF0709 only through 2020, and the rebuilt variable equals VCF0709 for every respondent who has both. Reported turnout is the report of having voted (VCF0702). Campaign activity is a yes to at least one of five questions, whether the respondent tried to influence how others vote (VCF0717), attended a meeting or rally (VCF0718), worked for a party or candidate (VCF0719), displayed a button or sticker (VCF0720) or gave money (VCF0721), with all five answered. All behaviors are self-reports, and the vote items are asked only of respondents who reported voting.

Estimators. For each behavior and period, a weighted linear probability model of the 0/1 behavior on coldness and warmth with survey-year fixed effects and HC3 heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (MacKinnon and White, 1985); the difference between the two coefficients (coldness minus warmth) and its interval come from the joint covariance matrix. The three periods are 1978 to 1990 (7 surveys), 1992 to 2008 (7 surveys) and 2012 to 2024 (4 surveys), fixed before estimation. The change between two periods is the difference of two independent estimates and combines their standard errors in quadrature. Yearly estimates fit the same model to one survey year without fixed effects. The trend per decade interacts coldness and warmth with decades since 2001 in a model with year fixed effects. The logit check fits a weighted logistic regression and uses a probability-weight sandwich covariance with an n/(n-k) factor. The check with each rating alone stacks the two single-rating models and clusters on the respondent so that their difference has an interval. The controls check adds party, strength of identification (strong, weak, leaner), education (four categories), age and interest in the campaign (three categories; complete cases). Group shares carry Wilson intervals on the Kish effective sample size, and the difference between two groups combines the two normal standard errors. Correlations use Fisher z on the Kish effective sample size, with each rating centered on its survey-year mean. All intervals treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample and ignore the strata and clusters of the ANES design, which the Cumulative File does not carry.

Election type. Presidential voting and the straight ticket exist only in presidential election years. House voting, reported turnout and campaign activity also exist in midterm years, which are 56% of the respondents in 1978 to 1990, 25% in 1992 to 2008 and none in 2012 to 2024. The presidential-years-only comparisons keep 1980, 1984 and 1988 from the earliest period (and every presidential year of the middle one), the midterm-only estimates use 1978, 1982, 1986 and 1990, and the trend per decade is also fitted on presidential years alone.

Weights. The full-sample weight VCF0009z for all estimates. Mode: weight_ftf (VCF0009x) on the fresh face-to-face sample and weight_web (VCF0009y) on the fresh web sample, which exist for 2008 (face to face only), 2012, 2016 and 2024; the 2020 study has no mode weights, and the 2024 re-interviewed panel and paper respondents belong to neither mode group. Mode estimates pool 2012, 2016 and 2024 and are set against the 1978 to 1990 estimate (all years of that period, and its presidential years alone), which comes from studies interviewed mainly in person. A check with the post-election weight, available in the file for 7 surveys, changes a yearly coefficient or difference by at most 0.5 points.

Lean of the self-reported vote. Among all ANES respondents who reported a vote for the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate, the weighted Democratic share is 56.0% in 2020 and 55.3% in 2024; the Democratic share of the two-party vote in county returns, Alaska excluded, is 52.3% and 49.3%.

Suppression. Cells of group shares need at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100. A yearly model needs at least 150 respondents who answered the behavior question and an effective sample of 100 or more. Every pooled period estimate rests on at least 1,394 respondents.

## What these data cannot show

- The comparison is between two feelings measured in the same survey as the behavior.
- A respondent who voted for a party's candidate may rate that party warmer afterward, and a respondent who dislikes the other party may be more willing to say that they voted or took part, so the coefficients cannot say which way the association runs.
- Interest in politics, strength of party identification, ideology and age may each raise warmth, coldness and behavior together.
- The checks hold a few of them fixed and do not hold ideology or issue positions fixed.
- Ratings of the parties may also reflect feelings about party elites more than about other citizens [9], and the party rating is not the rating of the presidential nominee, which goes with the presidential vote and is studied in Chapter 2.2, Feelings toward the other party (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/feelings-toward-the-other-party).
- The behaviors are reports.
- Validation against public records finds that survey respondents consistently overreport voting and that the nonvoters who say they voted tend to be politically engaged [10].
- The file has no validated-vote variable, so the turnout results describe respondents who say they voted, and overreporting that is concentrated among engaged partisans could change the comparison of coldness and warmth.
- The self-reported vote also leans Democratic: among respondents who reported a major-party presidential vote, 56.0% reported a Democratic vote in 2020 and 55.3% in 2024, against 52.3% and 49.3% of the two-party vote in county returns, Alaska excluded.
- The party-line measures compare each partisan with the own party's candidate, so they are less exposed to that lean than a vote share is.
- The vote items cover only partisans who reported voting for a major-party candidate, so partisans who stayed home or chose a third-party candidate, among whom coldness toward both parties may be common, are outside them.
- Party-line voting is near its ceiling in recent years, which limits how much any coefficient can show, and the log-odds check addresses scale and not selection.
- The results come from repeated cross-sections, so they cannot show that any partisan grew colder or that any partisan's behavior changed as feelings changed.
- A panel that follows the same people is needed for that, and the ANES 2016, 2020 and 2024 panel is not in the files used here.
- The three periods were fixed before estimation, but their boundaries are a choice, and the per-decade slope and the yearly figure are there so that the result does not rest on them alone.
- The periods also differ in election type, and the presidential-years comparisons use three early studies.
- The 2012 to 2024 sample includes 2020, which has no mode weights, so the mode comparison covers 2012, 2016 and 2024 only.
- The intervals are model based and ignore the ANES sampling design.
- The chapter reports five behaviors, three periods and several measures without adjusting for multiple comparisons, so an interval that excludes zero in one cell is weaker evidence than it looks.
- What the ratings go with in views about political violence and democratic norms belongs to Chapter 5.4, Political violence and democratic norms (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/political-violence-and-democratic-norms), and who turns out to vote belongs to Chapter 3.1, Turnout (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/turnout).

## References

1. MacKinnon, James G.; White, Halbert (1985). Some Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimators with Improved Finite Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics 29(3): 305-325. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(85)90158-7
2. Wilson, Edwin B. (1927). Probable Inference, the Law of Succession, and Statistical Inference. Journal of the American Statistical Association 22(158): 209-212. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1927.10502953
3. Kish, Leslie (1965). Survey Sampling. John Wiley and Sons.
4. Abramowitz, Alan I.; Webster, Steven W. (2016). The Rise of Negative Partisanship and the Nationalization of U.S. Elections in the 21st Century. Electoral Studies 41: 12-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.001
5. Abramowitz, Alan I.; Webster, Steven W. (2018). Negative Partisanship: Why Americans Dislike Parties But Behave Like Rabid Partisans. Political Psychology 39(S1): 119-135. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12479
6. Caruana, Nicholas J.; McGregor, R. Michael; Stephenson, Laura B. (2015). The Power of the Dark Side: Negative Partisanship and Political Behaviour in Canada. Canadian Journal of Political Science 48(4): 771-789. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423914000882
7. Medeiros, Mike; Noël, Alain (2014). The Forgotten Side of Partisanship: Negative Party Identification in Four Anglo-American Democracies. Comparative Political Studies 47(7): 1022-1046. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414013488560
8. Bankert, Alexa (2021). Negative and Positive Partisanship in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections. Political Behavior 43(4): 1467-1485. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-020-09599-1
9. Druckman, James N.; Levendusky, Matthew S. (2019). What Do We Measure When We Measure Affective Polarization?. Public Opinion Quarterly 83(1): 114-122. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfz003
10. Ansolabehere, Stephen; Hersh, Eitan (2012). Validation: What Big Data Reveal About Survey Misreporting and the Real Electorate. Political Analysis 20(4): 437-459. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mps023

## Provenance

- Pipeline version: 1.0.0
- Build script: book3/chapters/negative-partisanship/build.py (sha256 c768cf95e245ad5b298018e7a6c0c254c2840f064f15e573381a70bfa0f1b4d3)
- Built on: 2026-10-03
- Site commit: 16414b2c7257546a7042d0b1734657f208999f60

Inputs:

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| --- | ---: | --- | --- |
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| data/county/pres_county_1868_2024.parquet | 6,295,675 | bec11c7a0cb5d4180bbd6809d048bc892dd00dfcdde527fa4da871b1dd3f835f | b2a4f000f2eea72d09af8939555289e924875cca40cd95ec8869104cd575bed7 |

Outputs:

| File | SHA-256 |
| --- | --- |
| facts.json | 94aada9675e8d45c4a9d30335a094512e2f6a09c2135cee40fcc2cf987177d06 |
| figures/by_period.json | 43ae5fb9dd224fb066cb8f268a14d653c101fba416e5375c4f8f9d78403674d9 |
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| figures/group_shares.json | fb19e4ab814fea8ff5dba719fb7cbac69d21e91690d43d437349f29243e3ae59 |
| figures/items.json | 7b8bcad8d9e502e7ec0184edc667d29df727aa07a4ff6e62a7c143a4ad006da4 |
| figures/mode.json | 41825c7920f778f70facc20c0183676ebe0a25aef6a40472baea5b9fa73e1733 |
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## Machine formats

- Report (HTML): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/negative-partisanship/report
- Report (Markdown): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/negative-partisanship/report.md
- Every estimate (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/facts.json
- Table 1, figure "group_shares" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/group_shares.json
- Table 2, figure "cells" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/cells.json
- Table 3, figure "by_period" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/by_period.json
- Table 4, figure "yearly" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/yearly.json
- Table 5, figure "mode" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/mode.json
- Table 6, figure "change" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/change.json
- Table 7, figure "cutoffs" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/cutoffs.json
- Table 8, figure "checks" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/checks.json
- Table 9, figure "items" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/negative-partisanship/figures/items.json
- Index of every report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms.txt; all reports in one file: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms-full.txt