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Contents
The Public Mind

    Type to search. Planned chapters match by title only.

    Volume 3: The political map

    Part XI

    Below the county line

    A county margin is an average over precincts that are often far more lopsided than the county.

    1 written, 1 planned

    This part looks inside the county, because a county margin is an average over neighborhoods that can differ widely from it. Precincts within counties asks how much precinct margins vary inside a county and which counties vary most. The planned chapter asks how partisan sorting changes as the unit shrinks from state to county to neighborhood and whether lopsided Democratic and Republican neighborhoods became less lopsided between 2016 and 2024. A planned neighborhoods explorer will show the 2020 vote by ZIP code, tract and block group, including the neighborhood map inside six near-tied counties.

    Explorer for this part: Neighborhoods. The 2020 vote by ZIP code, tract and block group.

    Chapters

    1. 11.1

      Precincts within counties

      In 2024, 65.0% of the two-party presidential votes in the sample were cast in precincts decided by 20 points or more, against 57.2% in counties decided by that margin and 56.6% in a simulation that assigns voters to precincts at random.

      DraftPlacesprecinct

    2. 11.2

      Sorting by geographic scale, 2016 to 2024

      How does partisan sorting change as the unit shrinks from state to county to neighborhood, and did lopsided neighborhoods become less lopsided between 2016 and 2024?

      PlannedPlacesprecinctrlcr