Chapter 4.2 · A generation back · Report

Teen births

The Opportunity Atlas predicts a teen birth for 38.5% of women born in 1978 to 1983 to parents at the 25th income percentile and raised in tracts now in the most deprived tenth, against 12.9% in the least deprived.

Author: Vishal Singh
Affiliation: NYU Stern
Published: 9 October 2026

Every estimate of the chapter with its interval and every figure as a table, generated from the chapter's data files. Table n of this report is figure n of the chapter. The same report as Markdown: report.md.

Identification

Title

Teen births

Label

A generation back

Chapter

4.2 (Part IV, Becoming an adult; An American life)

Question

How do teen birth rates change with neighborhood deprivation, and how large is the gap between groups raised in the same tract?

Dek

Grain

neighborhoods

Status

published

Published

9 October 2026

Updated

not revised

Data sources

Opportunity Atlas. Predicted share of women with a teen birth (parents at the 25th income percentile) by tract and race and by county, children born 1978 to 1983, native 2010 tracts; women's adult household income rank; 1990 tract poverty rate from the tract covariates file; years: 1978-1983 birth cohorts (2018 release); weights: 2010 census tract population for tract comparisons; 2010 census county population for county summaries
Area Deprivation Index. Neighborhood Atlas Area Deprivation Index, 2023 release, national rank, 2020 tracts averaged onto 2010 tracts by land area; years: 2023 release (version 4.0.1; built on ACS 2019-2023); weights: 2010 census tract population
USDA Food Access Research Atlas. 2010 census population of each 2010 tract, from the Food Access Research Atlas file; the food-access flags are not used; years: 2019 release (population from the 2010 census); weights: none (census counts); used as the weight for tract and county comparisons
CDC WONDER natality. Named only, to say how this chapter's measure differs from CDC WONDER counts of births to teenage mothers in the chapter on recent births; years: 2018-2024; weights: none (not used in this chapter's estimates)
Published estimates from cited studies. The estimate of the Colorado Family Planning Initiative reported by Lindo and Packham (2017); years: as reported in each study; weights: none (reported estimate)

Canonical URL

https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/teen-births

Markdown

https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/teen-births/report.md

BibTeX

@misc{singh2026teenbirths,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Teen births},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/teen-births},
  note = {In ZIP Code Destiny. Published 9 October 2026.}
}

Principal estimates

The facts the dek and the opening prose cite, in order of appearance. Every fact is in the table of all estimates below.

Estimand	Population	Period	Value	Interval	n	Weights	Source	Fact id
predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval; tenths hold near-equal numbers of tracts	all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the most deprived tenth of tracts by ADI rank	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	38.5%	95% CI 37.8% to 39.3%	7,226 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas	d10_pooled
predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval; tenths hold near-equal numbers of tracts	all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the least deprived tenth of tracts by ADI rank	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	12.9%	95% CI 11.9% to 14.0%	7,103 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas	d1_pooled
lower age limit in the Atlas definition of a teen birth (the mother's age at the child's birth)	women in the Opportunity Atlas teen birth measure	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s	13			none (definition)	Opportunity Atlas	age_low
upper age limit in the Atlas definition of a teen birth (the mother's age at the child's birth)	women in the Opportunity Atlas teen birth measure	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s	19			none (definition)	Opportunity Atlas	age_high
mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	17.6	95% CI 17.0 to 18.2	20,884 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas	gap_bw
mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	Hispanic women of any race and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	10.9	95% CI 10.3 to 11.5	22,695 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas	gap_hw
mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Asian women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	7.1	95% CI 6.3 to 8.0	7,064 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas	gap_wa

Findings

Among women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, the Opportunity Atlas predicts that 38.5% (95% CI 37.8% to 39.3%) of those who grew up in the most deprived tenth of census tracts had a teen birth, against 12.9% (95% CI 11.9% to 14.0%) in the least deprived tenth.[1] Tracts are ranked by their deprivation in 2019 to 2023, a generation after the births. The women were born in 1978 to 1983, so their births fell in the 1990s and early 2000s. Every predicted share in this chapter is the Atlas's model prediction for that cohort, now in middle age, and not a current teen birth rate. A teen birth here means that a woman claimed, as a dependent, a child born when she was between the ages of 13 and 19.

Inside the same tract, the prediction differs by race. Where the Atlas estimates both groups, Black women's predicted share exceeds white women's by 17.6 (95% CI 17.0 to 18.2) points and Hispanic women's exceeds it by 10.9 (95% CI 10.3 to 11.5) points, while Asian women's falls below it by 7.1 (95% CI 6.3 to 8.0) points. The Black-white gap shows no detectable change from the least to the most deprived tenth of tracts, so in these data the gradient by deprivation and the gap by race run in parallel.

How the Atlas measures a teen birth

The Opportunity Atlas links tax and census records to follow children born in 1978 to 1983 from the census tract where they grew up into adulthood.[1] Its teen birth measure is the fraction of women who grew up in a tract and ever claimed, as a dependent, a child born when they were between the ages of 13 and 19. The Atlas reports it as a predicted value for women whose parents were at a given percentile of the national income distribution, here the 25th, so it describes women from low-income families and not every woman in the tract. A birth counts only when the mother claimed the child, so births to teenage mothers whose children someone else claimed are missed.

The Atlas adds noise to each estimate to protect privacy, and its documentation puts the noise at typically less than 10% of an estimate's standard error. Tract estimates still rest on modest numbers of women, and the staged file carries no standard errors, so a single tract is a modeled estimate with an unknown error. Nothing is clipped, so 451 of the 71,646 tracts with an estimate for all women have a negative value.

Tract comparisons weight each tract by its 2010 census population, the nearest available stand-in for the number of women, because the staged file has no counts of women. That weight counts adults and children alike. Intervals come from a bootstrap that resamples whole counties, or whole states where a quantity is built from county or regional means. Of the 73,278 tracts in the file, 71,303 have an estimate for all women, a deprivation rank (described below) and a recorded 2010 population, and they hold 99.0% of the 2010 U.S. population. The Atlas defines its race groups as Hispanic women of any race and non-Hispanic white, Black and Asian women, and the chapter uses those groups.[2]

The chapter on recent births, Chapter 2.4, Where births are falling, counts births to mothers aged 15 to 19 in each county for 2018 to 2024 and reports no rates, because the staged files hold no counts of women by age. The measure here differs in its population (women raised in a tract, not mothers living in a county), its period (births in the 1990s and early 2000s), its age band (from age 13) and its form (a predicted share of women, not a count of births). The two should not be read as one series.

Predicted shares are higher in the South than in any other region

Across the 3,125 counties of the states and the District of Columbia that have an Atlas estimate, the population-weighted mean predicted share is 28.5% (95% CI 26.4% to 30.8%). County values run from 16.0% at the population-weighted 5th percentile to 41.4% at the 95th (Table 1).

Pooled over its counties, the South's share is 33.5% (95% CI 31.4% to 35.6%), against 29.5% (95% CI 26.3% to 31.5%) in the Midwest, 25.0% (95% CI 23.5% to 29.2%) in the West and 21.7% (95% CI 19.7% to 23.0%) in the Northeast.

The South is higher than the Midwest by 4.0 (95% CI 1.2 to 7.6) points, than the West by 8.5 (95% CI 4.1 to 11.1) and than the Northeast by 11.8 (95% CI 9.3 to 14.6). Of the counties in the highest tenth of county values, 93% are in the South, which holds 45% of all counties.

The key of the map ends at about the 5th and 95th percentiles of the county values, so 523 of the 3,126 drawn counties lie outside it and take the color of its nearest end.

The Atlas's county mean is 3.6 (95% CI 3.2 to 3.9) points above the mean of the tract estimates in the same counties, which is 25.0% (95% CI 24.3% to 25.6%) for all women when each tract is weighted by its 2010 population. One likely source is the tract weights, since total population counts adults and children alike and the Atlas's own estimates count the cohort's children. The levels from tract estimates in this chapter, including the shares in the most and least deprived tenths, may therefore be low. Differences between groups are less sensitive to the weights. Counting each tract once, which changes them most, gives a Black-white gap of 17.9 (95% CI 17.4 to 18.5) points against 17.6 with population weights. A county average also mixes neighborhoods that differ widely, so the rest of the chapter works with tracts and, at the end, with county averages of tracts.

Table 1. Predicted teen birth shares are higher in the South than in any other region, 33.5% against 21.7% in the Northeast

Deprivation here is the Area Deprivation Index (ADI), a national rank built for census block groups from American Community Survey measures.[3] A 2020 tract's value is the unweighted mean of its block groups' ranks and describes neighborhoods in 2019 to 2023, while the Atlas follows women from 2010 tracts whose teen births took place a generation earlier. Each 2010 tract therefore takes the land-area-weighted mean of the values of the 2020 tracts that overlap it, when those with a rank cover at least 50% of its land area. That rule leaves 343 tracts with an estimate but no rank or no recorded 2010 population. Of the tracts that remain, 56.4% overlap exactly one 2020 tract, where the crosswalk adds no further averaging.

The time gap changes what the gradient means. It compares the tract a woman grew up in with that tract's conditions now, and it matches the childhood tract only to the extent that neighborhoods keep their standing. The predicted share and the ADI rank have a correlation of +0.58 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.60) across the 71,303 tracts, and the share rises by 2.5 (95% CI 2.4 to 2.7) points for each ten-rank step in the ADI.

In tenths of tracts, the mean rises at every step, from 12.9% (95% CI 11.9% to 14.0%) in the least deprived tenth to 38.5% (95% CI 37.8% to 39.3%) in the most deprived, a rise of 25.6 (95% CI 24.3 to 26.9) points (Table 2). The mean over all tracts is 25.0% (95% CI 24.3% to 25.6%), and counting each tract once gives 25.5% (95% CI 24.7% to 26.2%).

Table 2. Predicted teen birth shares rise from 12.9% in the least deprived tenth of tracts to 38.5% in the most deprived

Three checks bear on the time gap. First, the correlation with the ADI is +0.56 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.59) among tracts that overlap one 2020 tract and +0.60 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.62) among tracts that overlap several, so the averaging in the crosswalk does not produce it. Second, the predicted share also has a correlation of −0.72 (95% CI −0.74 to −0.71) with women's mean adult household income rank in the same tracts, which the Atlas measures for the same cohort and which Chapter 4.3, Race, income and mobility takes up. That relation is larger in size than the one with the ADI, so teen births and the later outcomes of the same women move together more closely than teen births and present-day deprivation do. Both are patterns across places, and neither says that a teen birth lowered any woman's income.

Third, a deprivation measure from the childhood years allows a direct check. The Atlas's own tract covariates include the poverty rate from the 1990 census, when the women were in middle childhood. In the 71,295 tracts that have it, tenths of the 1990 poverty rate give a rise in the predicted share of 24.1 (95% CI 22.7 to 25.5) points from the least to the most deprived tenth. Tenths of the ADI on the same tracts give 25.6 (95% CI 24.3 to 26.9), a difference of −1.5 (95% CI −2.8 to −0.2) points.

The correlation with the poverty rate is +0.53 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.55), against +0.58 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.60) with the ADI. A measure taken when the women were children gives a gradient of nearly the same size, a little smaller than the ADI's, so the gradient does not depend on the ADI being measured later.

The pooled estimate mixes groups, and Table 3 separates them. Each group is drawn in the tracts where the Atlas has enough women of that group to estimate. The mean predicted share over those tracts is 41.3% (95% CI 40.4% to 42.1%) for Black women, 31.0% (95% CI 29.8% to 32.3%) for Hispanic women, 20.0% (95% CI 19.3% to 20.7%) for white women and 7.4% (95% CI 6.5% to 8.7%) for Asian women.

Every group's share is higher in the most deprived tenth of tracts than in the least deprived. The rise is 21.7 (95% CI 20.7 to 22.8) points for white women, 18.1 (95% CI 16.9 to 19.9) for Black women, 20.3 (95% CI 18.1 to 22.2) for Hispanic women and 15.8 (95% CI 11.3 to 20.1) for Asian women, whose interval is wide because few tracts with an Asian estimate lie in the most deprived tenths. Black women's line is above the others at every tenth, followed by Hispanic, white and Asian women's.

Table 3. Every group's predicted teen birth share is higher in the most deprived tenth of tracts than in the least deprived

The pooled gradient is steeper than each group's own. The rise for all women exceeds the rise for white women by 3.9 (95% CI 2.3 to 5.2) points, for Hispanic women by 5.3 (95% CI 3.7 to 7.1), for Black women by 7.5 (95% CI 6.0 to 8.9) and for Asian women by 9.8 (95% CI 5.4 to 14.4).

Tracts with a Black estimate are concentrated in the more deprived tenths, with 4,292 tracts in the most deprived tenth against 1,110 in the least deprived. A tract's pooled estimate averages over its women, so a group mix that differs across the scale would change the slope of the pooled line. The data do not size how much of the pooled gradient comes from that mix.

Black, Hispanic and Asian women raised in the same tract as white women

A comparison inside one tract removes the differences between neighborhoods that a county or ZIP code average mixes in. It needs both groups' estimates in a tract, and the Atlas makes an estimate for a group only where it can measure enough women of that group, so these tracts are not a sample of all tracts. For Black and white women there are 20,884 such tracts, which hold 99.6 million people.

In those tracts Black women's predicted share averages 40.9% (95% CI 40.1% to 41.7%) against 23.3% (95% CI 22.6% to 24.0%) for white women, a gap of 17.6 (95% CI 17.0 to 18.2) points. Counting each tract once gives 17.9 (95% CI 17.4 to 18.5), and the Black share is higher than the white share in 89.6% (95% CI 88.9% to 90.2%) of the tracts.

Each tract estimate rests on a modest number of women, and the Atlas adds noise to protect privacy. Noise of that kind spreads the two groups' estimates in both directions, so it pulls the share of tracts with a higher Black estimate toward an even split and not away from one.

Hispanic women's predicted share is higher than white women's by 10.9 (95% CI 10.3 to 11.5) points across 22,695 tracts that hold 114.3 million people, and it is higher in 79.1% (95% CI 77.9% to 80.2%) of them. Counting each tract once gives a gap of 11.2 (95% CI 10.6 to 11.8) points.

Asian women's share is lower than white women's by 7.1 (95% CI 6.3 to 8.0) points across 7,064 tracts that hold 37.9 million people, and it is higher than white women's in 23.9% (95% CI 21.6% to 26.0%) of them (Table 4). Each comparison uses its own set of tracts, so the three gaps are not measured on one sample. The same comparison for adult income is in Chapter 4.3, Race, income and mobility, and for incarceration in Chapter 3.4, School discipline and incarceration.

Table 4. Black women's predicted teen birth share was 17.6 points above white women's in the same tracts, Hispanic women's 10.9 points above and Asian women's 7.1 points below

The Black-white gap shows no detectable change across the deprivation scale

Sorting tracts on one noisy estimate and then plotting a difference that contains it builds a contrast into the groups, because noise in that estimate enters both the sort and the difference. The tenths in Table 5 are tenths of the ADI, which neither group's estimate contributes to, so the grouping does not sort on either one. In the least deprived tenth the Black-white gap is 18.1 (95% CI 16.2 to 19.6) points, and in the most deprived tenth it is 17.4 (95% CI 16.6 to 18.1) points. The gap in the most deprived tenth minus the gap in the least deprived is −0.7 (95% CI −2.4 to 1.2) points, and the slope of the gap on the ADI rank is −0.1 (95% CI −0.3 to 0.1) points for each ten-rank step. Both intervals include zero, so the data show no detectable change in the gap across the scale.

As a ratio the gap does change. Since the gap in points shows no detectable change while both levels rise, Black women's share is 2.5 (95% CI 2.3 to 2.9) times white women's in the least deprived tenth and 1.5 (95% CI 1.5 to 1.6) times in the most deprived.

Table 5. The Black-white gap in predicted teen birth shares shows no detectable change from the least to the most deprived tenth of tracts, −0.7 points with an interval that includes zero

For Hispanic women the gap is 11.5 (95% CI 10.4 to 12.7) points in the least deprived tenth and 10.7 (95% CI 9.7 to 11.7) in the most deprived, a change of −0.8 (95% CI −2.4 to 0.7) points that also includes zero. The Hispanic ratio falls from 2.1 (95% CI 2.0 to 2.3) to 1.3 (95% CI 1.3 to 1.4).

The Asian-white difference is not constant. It changes by −7.0 (95% CI −12.0 to −2.7) points between the two tenths, so Asian women's shortfall is wider in the most deprived tenth, though it rests on far fewer tracts there. The gradient by deprivation and the gap by race therefore appear side by side, and the gap in points shows no detectable narrowing where deprivation is higher. Black women in the least deprived tenth of tracts have a predicted share of 29.8% (95% CI 28.0% to 31.1%), slightly below the 32.0% (95% CI 31.4% to 32.7%) of white women in the most deprived tenth, whose tracts are different ones. The difference between them is −2.3 (95% CI −4.2 to −0.8) points.

The gap in county averages is similar under every floor on tracts

A county average damps the noise in a pair of tract estimates. Among the 261 counties with at least 20 tracts that have both estimates, the Black-white gap in county means is 18.1 (95% CI 16.8 to 19.6) points, weighting each county by its population and resampling states. It is positive in every one of those counties (Table 6).

Across counties, Black women's mean share rises 0.85 (95% CI 0.70 to 1.00) points for each point of white women's share. In the tracts of those counties the slope is 0.41 (95% CI 0.35 to 0.46) across tracts and 0.26 (95% CI 0.23 to 0.29) within counties, after each county's means are subtracted from both shares. The lower tract slopes are consistent with noise in a tract's white estimate, which pulls a slope toward zero, and with differences in structure within and between counties. The data do not separate the two. The figure therefore averages tracts to counties before it compares them, and a line of tract means grouped on the white estimate would mix the two.

Table 6. Across counties, Black women's predicted teen birth share rises 0.85 points for each point of white women's, against 0.26 among tracts within the same counties

The county number depends on the floor on tracts. With every county that has a tract pair the gap is 17.6 (95% CI 16.5 to 19.0) points, and it is positive in 94.6% of those counties.

With a floor of 10 tracts (453 counties) the gap is positive in every county, and with a floor of 50 tracts it is 18.1 (95% CI 17.0 to 19.7) points.

A floor on the population of a tract moves the tract gap little. The gap is 17.6 (95% CI 17.0 to 18.2) points for tracts of at least 2,000 residents, 17.3 (95% CI 16.7 to 17.9) for 4,000 and 16.5 (95% CI 15.8 to 17.2) for 6,000.

Counting each tract once, which gives the smallest and noisiest tracts more weight, gives 17.9 (95% CI 17.4 to 18.5) points against 17.6 (95% CI 17.0 to 18.2) with population weights, so noise in small tracts does not move the gap. Under all nine settings the interval for the gap lies above zero (Table 7). The two extreme settings, tracts of at least 6,000 residents and counties with at least 50 tracts, have overlapping intervals.

Table 7. The Black-white gap in predicted teen birth shares has an interval above zero under all nine floors on tracts per county and on tract population

Evidence on whether contraceptive access changes teen birth rates

Everything above describes shares across places and groups. Whether a change in access to contraception changes teen births is a separate question, and one study with a stated identification strategy bears on it.

Causal evidenceDifference-in-differences

Whether expanding access to long-acting contraception changes teen birth rates

The Colorado Family Planning Initiative began in 2009 with private funding to help low-income women gain access to long-acting reversible contraception, such as intrauterine devices and implants, through the state's Title X family-planning clinics. Teen birth rates fell across the United States in the same years, so the fall in Colorado alone does not show what the program did. Lindo and Packham compared the change in teen birth rates in Colorado counties that had a Title X clinic with the change in counties that had a Title X clinic in other states, before and after the program began.[4] The design assumes that the proportional changes in the comparison counties show what would have happened in Colorado without the program.

They estimate that the program reduced the teen birth rate in counties with funded clinics by 6.4% over 5 years, with the reduction concentrated in the second through fifth years and in counties with higher poverty. A state-level synthetic control analysis points the same way but lacks statistical power. The estimate is for teenagers in counties with a clinic in the years around 2009. It does not describe the women born in 1978 to 1983 whose teen births this chapter predicts, and it does not test whether access to contraception accounts for any gap between groups or places shown above.

Table 8 ranks the 66,005 2010 tracts that have an estimate for all women and all four rankings in four ways, with each ranking carried to 2010 tracts by the same land-area crosswalk as the ADI. Ranked by the ADI on this common sample, the predicted share of women is 12.9% (95% CI 11.9% to 13.8%) in the least deprived tenth and 38.2% (95% CI 37.5% to 38.9%) in the most deprived, and the rank correlation between tenth and share is +1.00. Under the standardized index the two ends are 12.0% (95% CI 11.3% to 12.9%) and 38.8% (95% CI 37.6% to 40.0%), with a correlation of +1.00. Under median household income they are 12.7% (95% CI 11.9% to 13.6%) and 38.1% (95% CI 37.4% to 39.0%), and under the bachelor's degree share 13.3% (95% CI 12.2% to 14.6%) and 36.8% (95% CI 36.0% to 37.6%), with correlations of +1.00 and +1.00, so none of the alternatives counts as a change under the book's rule (Chapter 9.1, How far one ranking goes).

Table 8. The predicted teen birth share is steadily higher toward the more deprived end under the ADI and under each of the three other rankings

What these data cannot show

The shares are model predictions for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile. They describe teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s among women from low-income families and say nothing about women from richer families or about teenagers now. A birth counts only when the mother claimed the child as a dependent. The gradient is a pattern across tracts, an ecological pattern, and it does not say that living in a deprived tract raised any woman's chance of a teen birth. The ADI describes the tracts decades after the births, and the staged files hold no deprivation measure from the childhood years.

A same-tract comparison removes differences between neighborhoods but not all differences. Within a tract, women raised at one parental income percentile can still differ in family wealth, in schools, in the block they lived on and in how institutions treated them, and the data describe the gap without explaining it. The staged file has no standard errors and no counts of women, so tracts are weighted by their total 2010 population, which may put the levels too low. The tracts with both estimates are those with enough women of both groups. Asian estimates are low and noisy, and 20% of them are below zero.

Whether a teen birth changes a woman's later income is a separate question that this chapter does not test. Kearney and Levine reviewed state and international comparisons. They argue that early births mostly mark limited economic prospects for disadvantaged girls and carry little direct economic cost, which is a reading of patterns across places.[5] Puerto Rico has Atlas estimates but is not drawn on the map. Connecticut appears under its legacy county codes in the Atlas, and it takes its ADI rank from the 2020 planning-region tracts through the crosswalk.

Tables

Table 1. Predicted teen birth shares are higher in the South than in any other region, 33.5% against 21.7% in the Northeast

Predicted share of women with a teen birth, percent, by county of childhood, women born 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile (teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s, not a current rate), races pooled

No inline rows: the values of Table 1 are in /data/teen-births/teen_birth_county_map.json.

Note: Each gray county has the reason for its missing value in its tooltip. Puerto Rico has estimates in the Atlas but is not drawn.

Note: The county estimates are model-based and carry privacy noise, so single small counties are noisy. The Atlas lists Connecticut under its legacy counties, which are the eight drawn here, and Valdez-Cordova Census Area (split in 2019) is drawn as its two successors with the same value. Alaska is drawn.

Note: The estimates describe where women born in 1978 to 1983 grew up, not the counties today. Regional means are population-weighted over the counties of the states and the District of Columbia, with 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states.

Note: The key runs from about the 5th to the 95th percentile of county values, weighted by population, so 523 of the 3,126 drawn counties lie outside it and take the color of its nearest end.

Source: Opportunity Atlas county outcomes, 1978-1983 birth cohorts; modeled estimates, regional means population-weighted (2010 census population)

Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_county_map.json

Table 2. Predicted teen birth shares rise from 12.9% in the least deprived tenth of tracts to 38.5% in the most deprived

Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) against the Area Deprivation Index national rank, one dot per 2010 tract, women born 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile (teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s, not a current rate), races pooled

No inline rows: the values of Table 2 are in /data/teen-births/teen_birth_tract_cloud.json.

Note: The dots are a random sample of 5,000 tracts inside the plotted range (seed 12345); every estimate uses all 71,303 tracts. The spread of the dots includes sampling noise and privacy noise in each tract estimate.

Note: The Area Deprivation Index is built for census block groups from American Community Survey measures for 2019 to 2023, and a 2020 tract's value is the unweighted mean of its block groups' ranks. Each 2010 tract takes the land-area-weighted mean of the values of the 2020 tracts that overlap it, when those with a rank cover at least 50% of its land area. Tenths hold near-equal numbers of tracts, with tied ranks kept together.

Note: Shares are the Atlas's predicted share of women with a teen birth, a child born when the mother was between the ages of 13 and 19 whom she claimed as a dependent, for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile. White, Black and Asian women are non-Hispanic and Hispanic women may be of any race. The Atlas adds noise to its estimates to protect privacy and the staged values are never clipped, so a few fall below 0 or above 100.

Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_by_deprivation_tracts.json

Table 3. Every group's predicted teen birth share is higher in the most deprived tenth of tracts than in the least deprived

Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) by tenth of the Area Deprivation Index, tracts where each group is estimated, women born 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile (teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s, not a current rate)

conf_high	conf_low	decile	estimate	n	series
14.01	11.85	1	12.95	7,103	All women
19.34	16.06	2	17.73	7,114	All women
21.14	18.97	3	20.03	7,106	All women
23.01	21.62	4	22.31	7,130	All women
25.17	23.94	5	24.55	7,123	All women
27.15	25.90	6	26.54	7,147	All women
29.25	28.03	7	28.65	7,144	All women
31.26	29.92	8	30.57	7,164	All women
33.37	32.12	9	32.75	7,046	All women
39.27	37.79	10	38.54	7,226	All women
9.55	7.69	1	8.58	6,277	White women
13.73	11.95	2	12.90	6,120	White women
16.07	14.69	3	15.37	6,456	White women
18.76	17.37	4	18.05	6,755	White women
20.77	19.49	5	20.11	6,806	White women
22.46	21.29	6	21.88	6,805	White women
24.40	23.41	7	23.89	6,756	White women
26.14	25.11	8	25.61	6,720	White women
27.76	26.86	9	27.31	6,554	White women
30.83	29.81	10	30.32	5,725	White women
32.41	29.79	1	31.41	1,110	Black women
35.83	30.70	2	33.39	1,951	Black women
36.72	33.53	3	35.19	2,076	Black women
38.43	36.06	4	37.23	2,214	Black women
40.76	38.98	5	39.86	2,533	Black women
42.40	40.31	6	41.35	2,630	Black women
44.29	42.37	7	43.32	2,736	Black women
45.57	44.07	8	44.82	2,747	Black women
47.29	46.16	9	46.72	2,927	Black women
50.14	48.95	10	49.53	4,292	Black women
24.36	20.80	1	22.41	3,548	Hispanic women
26.47	23.48	2	25.25	3,718	Hispanic women
29.43	26.60	3	28.10	3,338	Hispanic women
32.17	29.36	4	30.75	3,032	Hispanic women
33.90	31.20	5	32.51	2,710	Hispanic women
35.45	32.76	6	34.12	2,352	Hispanic women
37.19	34.82	7	35.96	2,089	Hispanic women
39.20	36.94	8	38.06	1,818	Hispanic women
40.45	38.59	9	39.50	1,553	Hispanic women
43.69	41.70	10	42.69	1,627	Hispanic women
5.28	3.65	1	4.43	2,509	Asian women
7.15	5.03	2	5.99	1,778	Asian women
8.06	5.73	3	6.90	1,087	Asian women
10.08	7.03	4	8.46	761	Asian women
14.26	8.81	5	11.40	533	Asian women
15.51	9.42	6	12.18	393	Asian women
17.45	10.13	7	12.99	273	Asian women
19.74	10.30	8	13.95	174	Asian women
25.62	16.66	9	20.67	122	Asian women
24.51	15.73	10	20.21	88	Asian women

Note: Each group has its own set of tracts, the tracts where the Atlas has enough women of that group, so the lines differ in part because the places differ. Tenths are tenths of all tracts with an ADI rank, so a tenth means the same part of the deprivation scale for every group. Few tracts with an Asian estimate fall in the most deprived tenths, and their intervals are wide.

Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_gradient_by_group.json

Table 4. Black women's predicted teen birth share was 17.6 points above white women's in the same tracts, Hispanic women's 10.9 points above and Asian women's 7.1 points below

Mean predicted share of women with a teen birth for each group minus the share for white women raised in the same tract, percentage points, tracts where both are estimated, women born 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile (teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s, not a current rate)

conf_high	conf_low	estimate	group	n
18.19	17.01	17.59	Black women	20,884
11.50	10.31	10.92	Hispanic women	22,695
−6.31	−7.96	−7.11	Asian women	7,064

Note: Each row uses its own set of tracts, the tracts where that group and white women both have an estimate, so the rows are not a single sample. The number of tracts is in each row's tooltip. Each tract estimate rests on a modest number of women and carries privacy noise; the means average many tracts and the intervals resample counties. Shares are the Atlas's predicted share of women with a teen birth, a child born when the mother was between the ages of 13 and 19 whom she claimed as a dependent, for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile. White, Black and Asian women are non-Hispanic and Hispanic women may be of any race. The Atlas adds noise to its estimates to protect privacy and the staged values are never clipped, so a few fall below 0 or above 100.

Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_gaps_same_tract.json

Table 5. The Black-white gap in predicted teen birth shares shows no detectable change from the least to the most deprived tenth of tracts, −0.7 points with an interval that includes zero

Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) for white and Black women raised in the same tracts, by tenth of the Area Deprivation Index, women born 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile (teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s, not a current rate)

Tenth of tracts by ADI	White women (%)	Black women (%)	Gap (points)	Lower limit of the 95% interval for the gap	Upper limit of the 95% interval for the gap	Tracts
Tenth 1 (least deprived)	11.7	29.8	18.1	16.2	19.6	696
Tenth 2	14.9	32.6	17.7	16.1	19.2	1,372
Tenth 3	16.7	34.2	17.5	16.3	18.7	1,634
Tenth 4	19.4	36.9	17.5	16.3	18.6	1,953
Tenth 5	21.1	39.5	18.3	17.4	19.3	2,288
Tenth 6	23.0	41.0	18.0	16.9	19.3	2,366
Tenth 7	25.5	43.0	17.5	16.7	18.4	2,443
Tenth 8	27.2	44.4	17.2	16.5	17.9	2,410
Tenth 9	29.4	46.5	17.0	16.4	17.7	2,570
Tenth 10 (most deprived)	32.0	49.4	17.4	16.6	18.1	3,152

Note: The tracts are those where the Atlas estimates both groups, and tenths are formed on the ADI, a measure that neither estimate contributes to, so the grouping does not sort on either noisy estimate. Few tracts in the least deprived tenths have a Black estimate. The Area Deprivation Index is built for census block groups from American Community Survey measures for 2019 to 2023, and a 2020 tract's value is the unweighted mean of its block groups' ranks. Each 2010 tract takes the land-area-weighted mean of the values of the 2020 tracts that overlap it, when those with a rank cover at least 50% of its land area. Tenths hold near-equal numbers of tracts, with tied ranks kept together.

Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_black_white_by_deprivation.json

Table 6. Across counties, Black women's predicted teen birth share rises 0.85 points for each point of white women's, against 0.26 among tracts within the same counties

Mean predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) for Black women against white women, counties with at least a minimum number of tracts where both are estimated, women born 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile (teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s, not a current rate)

black	n	white
46.15	20	30.63
40.49	102	22.94
41.06	20	26.32
45.02	44	26.40
46.42	78	26.99
47.88	46	25.45
50.53	20	35.96
45.79	32	24.85
27.30	29	21.66
44.50	159	28.23
35.43	26	24.18
42.55	75	23.05
33.35	132	16.09
37.31	74	17.54
45.77	52	25.11
53.95	44	27.91
37.25	385	16.12
31.84	28	19.12
38.81	123	19.37
40.99	161	20.13
41.05	231	22.79
32.24	173	15.74
39.46	52	20.60
31.13	60	17.42
35.47	72	20.29
36.01	66	19.74
40.34	43	23.57
39.39	62	24.88
31.71	60	16.42
32.68	65	16.93
36.42	66	15.75
36.21	20	22.77
45.14	27	26.23
38.53	78	23.58
47.08	27	25.17
40.28	34	18.67
39.62	21	28.46
37.33	53	23.28
28.10	221	15.23
43.61	133	25.87
44.73	57	25.71
40.62	151	24.78
38.95	20	24.17
37.99	28	26.15
35.29	48	17.81
46.57	29	26.17
33.82	139	16.23
39.16	23	24.51
34.45	126	20.97
33.43	20	21.45
32.33	132	18.17
49.60	50	21.91
49.99	69	30.88
34.66	29	21.80
34.95	51	18.72
38.25	38	23.95
47.51	33	29.74
42.70	42	30.11
47.90	22	19.28
42.60	45	29.42
36.20	95	20.96
37.53	83	17.92
45.96	22	27.45
37.80	70	17.97
33.29	101	17.40
40.21	25	26.42
42.70	23	26.18
46.90	20	28.80
41.88	40	30.43
43.76	40	29.55
47.81	21	21.12
46.73	286	15.50
38.08	45	12.72
55.83	41	29.78
49.06	31	25.64
56.68	20	37.76
45.46	24	26.33
52.94	28	28.40
43.44	35	23.96
47.51	25	31
44.21	45	20.65
60.46	39	26.72
47.07	35	30.59
47.64	38	26.48
48.05	138	28.68
49.49	38	27.54
44.74	24	25.68
50.25	46	29.15
40.02	25	26.73
46.97	38	35.44
41.04	39	28.05
43.81	96	26.78
45.23	22	28.54
46.39	50	27.14
49.44	24	30.59
43.70	64	21.41
47.46	67	24.39
43.91	34	22.75
45.24	64	20.41
49.49	25	23.97
50.47	20	30.11
41.02	23	23.60
53.53	20	24.80
39.03	62	20.67
39.15	100	17.40
33.73	27	20.50
38.25	21	24.19
30	33	13.76
23.98	131	13.06
30.62	142	22.39
49.07	77	19.06
39.48	28	22.98
17.71	49	12.76
25.21	40	15.64
34.24	24	19.61
44.81	38	24.88
41.90	34	24.58
47.57	26	23.85
51.75	51	26.84
40.92	27	17.91
34.09	68	13.42
45.57	24	24.56
35.91	43	15.04
43.17	131	23.03
42.51	110	16.44
46.09	47	21.71
47.36	29	30.23
44.57	38	30.95
45.83	41	21.96
43.70	22	29.84
46.04	89	26.15
42.22	91	22.08
52.57	51	23.70
44.70	50	26.62
47.91	195	26.58
45.27	26	20.96
24.20	26	9.26
35.04	55	17.71
39.40	59	16.57
51.33	22	25.34
31.16	46	6.49
43.82	31	16.39
35.70	28	12.80
39.86	39	15.82
26.57	75	9.31
34.66	33	16.12
37.91	25	14.58
31.76	53	8.77
32.90	43	10.90
29.52	21	21.29
46.72	35	22.33
26.25	80	4.42
41.72	73	19.85
25.16	55	9.01
27.88	37	8.96
48.34	36	20.75
37.91	26	17.09
23.31	57	7.65
40.22	27	10.32
22.94	22	7.61
36.34	60	12.13
27.48	72	10.96
40.32	22	30.82
51.58	22	26.49
39.80	60	27.58
36.32	43	18.20
42.99	52	24.26
52.23	32	34.29
39.08	74	23.76
43.86	22	25.33
40.91	135	22.11
39.03	22	21.01
38.74	23	24.25
47.45	28	22.05
46.47	22	35.09
53.96	20	29.02
37.49	107	16.90
41.96	24	25.02
41.80	26	25.73
42.49	136	18.58
42.72	158	29.84
49.28	111	26.60
49.88	28	30.80
47.77	60	28.92
49.23	22	24.70
45.20	61	27.53
45.63	38	27.95
44.90	54	23.04
43.43	22	29.30
45.08	118	26.95
44.82	69	25.26
40.48	41	20.79
42.74	104	17.44
47.77	22	25.45
43.95	23	16.94
33.72	22	18.30
42.83	32	23.16
41.01	43	16.88
52.12	20	26.16
41.27	20	23.62
33.39	47	12.61
44.78	117	18.59
32.48	38	22.29
43.07	28	26.81
48.45	32	33.85
39.49	34	28
38.03	58	19.37
38.79	23	27.03
39.41	29	24.35
45.21	78	22.28
42.83	33	24.60
37.70	36	23.75
40.15	61	20.29
49.22	51	30.54
43.68	21	27.47
48.39	31	29.91
42.36	108	28.79
45.65	45	28.07
45.23	42	27.66
47.27	20	29.81
41	33	28.39
44.09	33	31.13
45.26	136	27.07
40.68	49	28.96
37.09	120	22.18
37.15	27	28.42
51.38	20	25.20
34.29	50	16.60
44.31	341	27.80
42.70	39	25.26
32.49	34	23.04
33.41	53	19.24
36.49	44	27.01
44.89	23	30.05
38.59	417	23.46
45.03	39	29.08
49.41	30	30.55
44.64	31	31.45
40.88	29	27.61
43.27	193	26.07
41.50	83	26.44
41.40	22	30.80
35.42	23	18.48
32.41	56	20.45
24.38	123	12.39
34.92	43	19.47
32.86	54	22.53
40.44	21	26.07
28.47	26	15.87
35.37	37	23.06
39.96	30	24.43
37.68	38	25.08
43.53	47	26.48
43.70	28	23.03
40.88	21	27.28
33.59	80	21.13
32.44	114	18.64
38.83	75	25.30
51.85	28	19.82
51.01	99	24.71
58.29	24	29.58

Note: A county enters when at least 20 of its tracts have both estimates, and county means weight each tract by its 2010 population. In the tracts of these counties the slope is 0.41 across tracts and 0.26 within counties (each tract's shares minus its county's means), against 0.85 between county means. Noise in the white estimate is one candidate explanation for the lower tract slopes, and the data do not separate it from structure within and between counties. Shares are the Atlas's predicted share of women with a teen birth, a child born when the mother was between the ages of 13 and 19 whom she claimed as a dependent, for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile. White, Black and Asian women are non-Hispanic and Hispanic women may be of any race. The Atlas adds noise to its estimates to protect privacy and the staged values are never clipped, so a few fall below 0 or above 100.

Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_black_white_counties.json

Table 7. The Black-white gap in predicted teen birth shares has an interval above zero under all nine floors on tracts per county and on tract population

Mean predicted share of women with a teen birth for Black women minus white women raised in the same places, percentage points, by floor, women born 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile (teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s, not a current rate)

conf_high	conf_low	estimate	floor	kind	n
18.98	16.54	17.59	Every county with a tract pair	Minimum tracts per county	1,318
18.98	16.66	17.74	Counties with at least 5 tracts	Minimum tracts per county	719
19.20	16.70	17.86	Counties with at least 10 tracts	Minimum tracts per county	453
19.59	16.84	18.06	Counties with at least 20 tracts	Minimum tracts per county	261
19.67	16.96	18.14	Counties with at least 50 tracts	Minimum tracts per county	102
18.19	17.01	17.59	Every tract	Minimum residents per tract	20,884
18.18	17.03	17.57	Tracts with at least 2,000 residents	Minimum residents per tract	19,836
17.94	16.69	17.27	Tracts with at least 4,000 residents	Minimum residents per tract	12,788
17.21	15.78	16.50	Tracts with at least 6,000 residents	Minimum residents per tract	4,790

Note: County rows weight each tract by its 2010 population within the county and each county by its summed population, with intervals from a bootstrap over states. Tract rows weight each tract by its 2010 population, with intervals from a bootstrap over counties. The number of counties or tracts is in each row's tooltip. Shares are the Atlas's predicted share of women with a teen birth, a child born when the mother was between the ages of 13 and 19 whom she claimed as a dependent, for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile. White, Black and Asian women are non-Hispanic and Hispanic women may be of any race. The Atlas adds noise to its estimates to protect privacy and the staged values are never clipped, so a few fall below 0 or above 100.

Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_gap_floors.json

Table 8. The predicted teen birth share is steadily higher toward the more deprived end under the ADI and under each of the three other rankings

Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) by tenth of tracts ranked four ways, over the 66,005 tracts that have all four rankings

bin	conf_high	conf_low	estimate	n_units	ranking
1	13.78	11.93	12.90	6,617	Area Deprivation Index
2	19.58	16.44	18.04	6,508	Area Deprivation Index
3	21.02	18.99	19.99	6,622	Area Deprivation Index
4	23.05	21.64	22.38	6,589	Area Deprivation Index
5	25.09	23.87	24.51	6,611	Area Deprivation Index
6	27.15	25.87	26.52	6,604	Area Deprivation Index
7	29.10	27.89	28.51	6,568	Area Deprivation Index
8	31.05	29.65	30.36	6,657	Area Deprivation Index
9	33.17	31.88	32.53	6,613	Area Deprivation Index
10	38.92	37.46	38.19	6,616	Area Deprivation Index
1	12.90	11.25	12.04	6,575	Standardized index
2	17.83	16.55	17.18	6,578	Standardized index
3	20.82	19.82	20.32	6,588	Standardized index
4	22.71	21.72	22.24	6,599	Standardized index
5	24.88	23.89	24.38	6,605	Standardized index
6	26.80	25.78	26.29	6,609	Standardized index
7	28.81	27.63	28.23	6,612	Standardized index
8	31.24	29.93	30.61	6,610	Standardized index
9	34.21	32.66	33.44	6,611	Standardized index
10	40.03	37.63	38.85	6,618	Standardized index
1	13.57	11.93	12.74	6,582	Median household income
2	18.32	17.00	17.64	6,585	Median household income
3	21.17	20.09	20.63	6,592	Median household income
4	23.42	22.33	22.88	6,596	Median household income
5	25.27	24.29	24.79	6,611	Median household income
6	26.94	25.94	26.45	6,606	Median household income
7	28.69	27.61	28.16	6,613	Median household income
8	30.79	29.66	30.24	6,609	Median household income
9	33.58	32.39	32.99	6,611	Median household income
10	38.96	37.35	38.15	6,600	Median household income
1	14.56	12.20	13.34	6,568	Bachelor's degree share
2	17.85	16.08	16.95	6,577	Bachelor's degree share
3	20.72	19.21	19.95	6,596	Bachelor's degree share
4	22.91	21.61	22.26	6,595	Bachelor's degree share
5	25.10	23.85	24.49	6,605	Bachelor's degree share
6	26.76	25.63	26.20	6,604	Bachelor's degree share
7	28.68	27.66	28.18	6,614	Bachelor's degree share
8	30.66	29.60	30.14	6,609	Bachelor's degree share
9	33.22	32.04	32.63	6,620	Bachelor's degree share
10	37.62	35.98	36.83	6,617	Bachelor's degree share

Note: Least and most deprived tenth: ADI 12.9% and 38.2%, rank correlation +1.00; standardized index 12.0% and 38.8%, +1.00; median household income 12.7% and 38.1%, +1.00; bachelor's degree share 13.3% and 36.8%, +1.00.

Note: The standardized index applies the ADI's coefficients to its measures after standardizing each one, so home value and income carry less weight than in the ADI. Income and degree share are single census measures, each ranked from the highest value to the lowest.

Source: Opportunity Atlas tract outcomes, 2010 tracts, 1978-1983 birth cohorts, and Area Deprivation Index, 2023 release (ACS 2019-2023); population-weighted (2010 tract population), modeled estimates; ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 tract tables (B19013, B15003 and the 15 rebuilt ADI measures)

Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/alt_rankings.json

All estimates

Every fact in facts.json (128), sorted by id. The same values as JSON: facts.json.

Fact id	Value	Unit	Estimand	Population	Period	Interval	n	Weights	Source	Note
adi_cover	50%	percent of a 2010 tract's land area	minimum land area of a 2010 tract covered by 2020 tracts that have an ADI rank for the tract to take a rank (a rule)	2010 census tracts	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			none (rule)	Opportunity Atlas
age_high	19	years of age	upper age limit in the Atlas definition of a teen birth (the mother's age at the child's birth)	women in the Opportunity Atlas teen birth measure	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s			none (definition)	Opportunity Atlas
age_low	13	years of age	lower age limit in the Atlas definition of a teen birth (the mother's age at the child's birth)	women in the Opportunity Atlas teen birth measure	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s			none (definition)	Opportunity Atlas
alt_adi_least	12.9%	Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent)	population-weighted mean of the tract predicted teen birth share for all women (2010 tract population as the weight); 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties	the least deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Area Deprivation Index, among the tracts with all four rankings	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 11.9% to 13.8%	6,617 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
alt_adi_most	38.2%	Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent)	population-weighted mean of the tract predicted teen birth share for all women (2010 tract population as the weight); 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties	the most deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Area Deprivation Index, among the tracts with all four rankings	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 37.5% to 38.9%	6,616 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
alt_adi_rho	+1.00	rank correlation	Spearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted once	the bins of tracts ranked by Area Deprivation Index	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			each bin counted once	Opportunity Atlas
alt_degree_least	13.3%	Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent)	population-weighted mean of the tract predicted teen birth share for all women (2010 tract population as the weight); 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties	the least deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Bachelor's degree share, among the tracts with all four rankings	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 12.2% to 14.6%	6,568 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
alt_degree_most	36.8%	Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent)	population-weighted mean of the tract predicted teen birth share for all women (2010 tract population as the weight); 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties	the most deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Bachelor's degree share, among the tracts with all four rankings	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 36.0% to 37.6%	6,617 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
alt_degree_rho	+1.00	rank correlation	Spearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted once	the bins of tracts ranked by Bachelor's degree share	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			each bin counted once	Opportunity Atlas
alt_income_least	12.7%	Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent)	population-weighted mean of the tract predicted teen birth share for all women (2010 tract population as the weight); 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties	the least deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Median household income, among the tracts with all four rankings	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 11.9% to 13.6%	6,582 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
alt_income_most	38.1%	Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent)	population-weighted mean of the tract predicted teen birth share for all women (2010 tract population as the weight); 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties	the most deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Median household income, among the tracts with all four rankings	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 37.4% to 39.0%	6,600 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
alt_income_rho	+1.00	rank correlation	Spearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted once	the bins of tracts ranked by Median household income	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			each bin counted once	Opportunity Atlas
alt_n_places	66,005	tracts	count of tracts in the common sample of the ranking comparison	tracts with the outcome and all four rankings	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
alt_rho_cut	0.9	absolute rank correlation	threshold between a steady and an uneven gradient	the rule for changed gradients (docs/RANKING_SWITCH_RULE.md)	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			none (a fixed rule)	Opportunity Atlas
alt_rho_margin	0.1	absolute rank correlation	smallest move in the rank correlation that counts as a change of shape	the rule for changed gradients (docs/RANKING_SWITCH_RULE.md)	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			none (a fixed rule)	Opportunity Atlas
alt_std_least	12.0%	Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent)	population-weighted mean of the tract predicted teen birth share for all women (2010 tract population as the weight); 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties	the least deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Standardized index, among the tracts with all four rankings	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 11.3% to 12.9%	6,575 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
alt_std_most	38.8%	Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent)	population-weighted mean of the tract predicted teen birth share for all women (2010 tract population as the weight); 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties	the most deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Standardized index, among the tracts with all four rankings	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 37.6% to 40.0%	6,618 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
alt_std_rho	+1.00	rank correlation	Spearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted once	the bins of tracts ranked by Standardized index	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			each bin counted once	Opportunity Atlas
asian_neg_share	20%	percent of tracts with an Asian estimate	share of those estimates that are below zero (privacy noise, never clipped)	2010 census tracts with an Atlas estimate for Asian women	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s		7,732 tracts	none (each tract counts once)	Opportunity Atlas
black_bw	40.9%	percent of women with a teen birth	predicted share, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Black women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas also estimates non-Hispanic white women	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 40.1% to 41.7%	20,884 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
corr_adi	+0.58	correlation coefficient	population-weighted correlation of the predicted teen birth share with the ADI national rank, county-bootstrap interval	all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 0.55 to 0.60	71,303 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
corr_adi_common	+0.58	correlation coefficient	population-weighted correlation of the predicted teen birth share with the ADI national rank, on the tracts with a 1990 poverty rate, county-bootstrap interval	all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with a 1990 poverty rate	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 0.55 to 0.60	71,295 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
corr_adult	−0.72	correlation coefficient	population-weighted correlation of the predicted teen birth share with women's mean adult household income rank (percentile), both for the same cohort, county-bootstrap interval	tracts with an Atlas estimate of teen births and of women's adult household income rank, women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s	95% CI −0.74 to −0.71	71,303 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
corr_multi	+0.60	correlation coefficient	population-weighted correlation of the predicted teen birth share with the ADI national rank (rank averaged over the overlapping tracts by land area), county-bootstrap interval	tracts that overlap more than one 2020 tract, with an Atlas estimate for all women	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 0.57 to 0.62	31,104 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
corr_pov1990	+0.53	correlation coefficient	population-weighted correlation of the predicted teen birth share with the 1990 tract poverty rate, county-bootstrap interval	all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with a 1990 poverty rate	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 0.51 to 0.55	71,295 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
corr_single	+0.56	correlation coefficient	population-weighted correlation of the predicted teen birth share with the ADI national rank, county-bootstrap interval	tracts that overlap exactly one 2020 tract, with an Atlas estimate for all women	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 0.53 to 0.59	40,199 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
cross_black_d1	29.8%	percent of women with a teen birth	predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Black women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the least deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both Black and white women	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 28.0% to 31.1%	20,884 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
cross_diff	−2.3	percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black women in the least deprived tenth minus white women in the most deprived tenth	mean for Black women in the least deprived tenth of tracts minus mean for white women in the most deprived tenth, county-bootstrap interval from the same draws	non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI −4.2 to −0.8	20,884 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
cross_white_d10	32.0%	percent of women with a teen birth	predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the most deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both Black and white women	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 31.4% to 32.7%	20,884 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
cty_mean	28.5%	percent of women with a teen birth	predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over counties (2010 census population as the weight), bootstrap interval over states	women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in the states and the District of Columbia	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s	95% CI 26.4% to 30.8%	3,125 counties	2010 census county population	Opportunity Atlas
cty_p5	16.0%	percent of women with a teen birth	population-weighted 5th percentile of the county values	women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in the states and the District of Columbia	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s		3,125 counties	2010 census county population	Opportunity Atlas
cty_p95	41.4%	percent of women with a teen birth	population-weighted 95th percentile of the county values	women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in the states and the District of Columbia	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s		3,125 counties	2010 census county population	Opportunity Atlas
d10_pooled	38.5%	percent of women with a teen birth	predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval; tenths hold near-equal numbers of tracts	all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the most deprived tenth of tracts by ADI rank	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 37.8% to 39.3%	7,226 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
d1_pooled	12.9%	percent of women with a teen birth	predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval; tenths hold near-equal numbers of tracts	all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the least deprived tenth of tracts by ADI rank	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 11.9% to 14.0%	7,103 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
floor_county	20	tracts	minimum number of tracts with both estimates for a county to enter the county version	counties in the county version of the comparison	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			none (inclusion rule)	Opportunity Atlas
floor_max	50	tracts	largest minimum number of tracts tried	counties in the county version of the comparison	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			none (inclusion rule)	Opportunity Atlas
floor_pos	10	tracts	smallest minimum number of tracts tried at which the gap is positive in every county	counties in the county version of the comparison	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			none (inclusion rule)	Opportunity Atlas
gap_bw	17.6	percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black women minus white	mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 17.0 to 18.2	20,884 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
gap_bw_change	−0.7	percentage points of women with a teen birth, gap in the most deprived tenth minus gap in the least deprived tenth	Black-white gap in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus the gap in the least deprived tenth, county-bootstrap interval from the same draws	non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI −2.4 to 1.2	20,884 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
gap_bw_d1	18.1	percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black minus white	mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares within a tenth of tracts by ADI rank, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the least deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 16.2 to 19.6	696 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
gap_bw_d10	17.4	percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black minus white	mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares within a tenth of tracts by ADI rank, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the most deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 16.6 to 18.1	3,152 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
gap_bw_slope10	−0.1	percentage points of women with a teen birth per ten points of ADI national rank, Black minus white	population-weighted slope of the tract's Black-white gap on the ADI national rank, times ten, county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI −0.3 to 0.1	20,884 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
gap_bw_unw	17.9	percentage points of women with a teen birth, group minus white	mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares, each tract counted once, county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 17.4 to 18.5	20,884 tracts	none (each tract counts once)	Opportunity Atlas
gap_cty_f1	17.6	percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black minus white	population-weighted mean over counties of the gap in county mean predicted shares (county mean = tract mean weighted by 2010 population), bootstrap interval over states	non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in counties with at least one tract where the Atlas estimates both	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 16.5 to 19.0	1,318 counties	2010 census population summed to the county	Opportunity Atlas
gap_cty_f20	18.1	percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black minus white	population-weighted mean over counties of the gap in county mean predicted shares (county mean = tract mean weighted by 2010 population), bootstrap interval over states	non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in counties with at least 20 tracts where the Atlas estimates both	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 16.8 to 19.6	261 counties	2010 census population summed to the county	Opportunity Atlas
gap_cty_f50	18.1	percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black minus white	population-weighted mean over counties of the gap in county mean predicted shares (county mean = tract mean weighted by 2010 population), bootstrap interval over states	non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in counties with at least 50 tracts where the Atlas estimates both	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 17.0 to 19.7	102 counties	2010 census population summed to the county	Opportunity Atlas
gap_hw	10.9	percentage points of women with a teen birth, Hispanic women minus white	mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	Hispanic women of any race and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 10.3 to 11.5	22,695 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
gap_hw_change	−0.8	percentage points of women with a teen birth, gap in the most deprived tenth minus gap in the least deprived tenth	Hispanic-white gap in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus the gap in the least deprived tenth, county-bootstrap interval from the same draws	Hispanic women of any race and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI −2.4 to 0.7	22,695 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
gap_hw_d1	11.5	percentage points of women with a teen birth, Hispanic minus white	mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares within a tenth of tracts by ADI rank, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the least deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 10.4 to 12.7	3,010 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
gap_hw_d10	10.7	percentage points of women with a teen birth, Hispanic minus white	mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares within a tenth of tracts by ADI rank, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the most deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 9.7 to 11.7	1,253 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
gap_hw_unw	11.2	percentage points of women with a teen birth, group minus white	mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares, each tract counted once, county-bootstrap interval	Hispanic women of any race and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 10.6 to 11.8	22,695 tracts	none (each tract counts once)	Opportunity Atlas
gap_pf_2000	17.6	percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black minus white	mean over tracts of the gap, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with at least 2000 residents where the Atlas estimates both	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 17.0 to 18.2	19,836 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
gap_pf_4000	17.3	percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black minus white	mean over tracts of the gap, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with at least 4000 residents where the Atlas estimates both	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 16.7 to 17.9	12,788 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
gap_pf_6000	16.5	percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black minus white	mean over tracts of the gap, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with at least 6000 residents where the Atlas estimates both	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 15.8 to 17.2	4,790 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
gap_wa	7.1	percentage points of women with a teen birth, white minus Asian	mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Asian women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 6.3 to 8.0	7,064 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
gap_wa_change	−7.0	percentage points of women with a teen birth, Asian-white difference in the most deprived tenth minus the difference in the least deprived tenth	Asian minus white difference in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus the difference in the least deprived tenth, county-bootstrap interval from the same draws	non-Hispanic Asian women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI −12.0 to −2.7	7,064 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
level_diff	3.6	percentage points of women with a teen birth, Atlas county estimates minus tract estimates	population-weighted mean of the Atlas's county estimates minus the population-weighted mean of the tract estimates in the same counties, both weighted by 2010 population, bootstrap interval over states	women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the counties that have both an Atlas county estimate and tracts in the gradient	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 3.2 to 3.9	3,113 counties	2010 census population	Opportunity Atlas
lp_effect	6.4%	percent reduction in the county teen birth rate	difference-in-differences estimate of the reduction in the teen birth rate of 15- to 19-year-old women in counties with funded clinics, relative to comparison counties, reported in the abstract of Lindo and Packham (2017); copied from the paper and not computed in this build	Colorado counties with a Title X family-planning clinic whose clinics received program funding, against counties with a Title X clinic in other states	the five years after the program began in 2009			none (reported estimate)	Published estimates from cited studies	A published estimate, not a result of this build.
lp_years	5	years after the program began	length of the post-program window over which the abstract of Lindo and Packham (2017) reports the reduction in the teen birth rate; copied from the paper and not computed in this build	Colorado counties with a Title X family-planning clinic whose clinics received program funding	the five years after the program began in 2009			none (reported estimate)	Published estimates from cited studies	A published figure, not a result of this build.
mean_asian	7.4%	percent of women with a teen birth	predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Asian women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 6.5% to 8.7%	7,718 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
mean_black	41.3%	percent of women with a teen birth	predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Black women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 40.4% to 42.1%	25,216 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
mean_hisp	31.0%	percent of women with a teen birth	predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	Hispanic women of any race raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 29.8% to 32.3%	25,785 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
mean_pooled	25.0%	percent of women with a teen birth	predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 24.3% to 25.6%	71,303 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
mean_pooled_unw	25.5%	percent of women with a teen birth	predicted share of women with a teen birth, mean over tracts with each tract counted once, county-bootstrap interval	all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 24.7% to 26.2%	71,303 tracts	none (each tract counts once)	Opportunity Atlas
mean_white	20.0%	percent of women with a teen birth	predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 19.3% to 20.7%	64,974 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
n_below_zero	451	tracts	count of tracts with a negative published value (privacy noise, never clipped)	tracts whose estimate for all women is below zero	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s		71,646 tracts	none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
n_black_d1	1,110	tracts	count of tracts	tracts in the least deprived tenth with an Atlas estimate for Black women	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
n_black_d10	4,292	tracts	count of tracts	tracts in the most deprived tenth with an Atlas estimate for Black women	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
n_cloud	5,000	tracts	size of a random sample drawn with a fixed seed	tracts drawn at random for the scatter plot	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023		71,303 tracts	none (sample size)	Opportunity Atlas
n_cloud_outside	16	tracts	count of tracts outside the plotted range of the scatter plot	all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
n_cty	3,125	counties	count of counties	counties in the states and the District of Columbia with an Atlas estimate for all women	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s			none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
n_cty_drawn	3,126	counties	count of drawn counties with an Atlas estimate	counties and county equivalents drawn with a value on the map	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s			none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
n_cty_f10	453	counties	count of counties	counties with at least 10 tracts where the Atlas estimates both Black and white women	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
n_cty_f20	261	counties	count of counties	counties with at least 20 tracts where the Atlas estimates both Black and white women	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
n_cty_nodata	17	counties	count of drawn counties with no Opportunity Atlas estimate	counties and county equivalents on the map (Puerto Rico not drawn)	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s			none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
n_key_saturated	523	counties	count of those counties whose value lies outside the range of the key (below its low end or above its high end) and takes the end color	counties drawn with a value on the map	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s			none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
n_no_adi	343	tracts	count of tracts left out of the gradient	tracts with an estimate for all women but no ADI rank or no recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
n_oa_tracts	73,278	tracts	count of tracts in the file	2010 census tracts in the staged Opportunity Atlas file	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s			none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
n_pairs_asian	7,064	tracts	count of tracts	non-Hispanic Asian women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
n_pairs_black	20,884	tracts	count of tracts	non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
n_pairs_hisp	22,695	tracts	count of tracts	Hispanic women of any race and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
n_pooled_est	71,646	tracts	count of tracts with a published value	2010 census tracts in the staged Opportunity Atlas file with an estimate for all women	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s			none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
n_pov	71,295	tracts	count of tracts in the sensitivity check	2010 census tracts with an Atlas estimate for all women, an ADI rank, a recorded 2010 population and a 1990 poverty rate	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
n_tracts	71,303	tracts	count of tracts	2010 census tracts with an Atlas estimate for all women, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023			none (full count)	Opportunity Atlas
noise_share	10%	percent of an estimate's standard error	size of the privacy noise added to each estimate, as the Atlas codebook states it (typically less than this share of the standard error)	Opportunity Atlas tract estimates	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s			none (documentation)	Opportunity Atlas	Stated in the Atlas documentation, not computed in this build.
pct_bw	89.6%	percent of tracts in which the group's predicted share is higher than white women's	share of tracts (each tract counted once) where the group's predicted share exceeds white women's, county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 88.9% to 90.2%	20,884 tracts	none (each tract counts once)	Opportunity Atlas	Noise in the tract estimates pulls this share toward an even split.
pct_hw	79.1%	percent of tracts in which the group's predicted share is higher than white women's	share of tracts (each tract counted once) where the group's predicted share exceeds white women's, county-bootstrap interval	Hispanic women of any race and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 77.9% to 80.2%	22,695 tracts	none (each tract counts once)	Opportunity Atlas	Noise in the tract estimates pulls this share toward an even split.
pct_pos_f1	94.6%	percent of counties	share of counties in which the county mean predicted share is higher for Black than for white women	counties with at least one tract where the Atlas estimates both Black and white women	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023		1,318 counties	none (each county counts once)	Opportunity Atlas
pct_wa	23.9%	percent of tracts in which the group's predicted share is higher than white women's	share of tracts (each tract counted once) where the group's predicted share exceeds white women's, county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Asian women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 21.6% to 26.0%	7,064 tracts	none (each tract counts once)	Opportunity Atlas	Noise in the tract estimates pulls this share toward an even split.
pf_2000	2,000	residents	minimum 2010 population of a tract (a rule)	2010 census tracts in the comparison of Black and white women	2010 census			none (inclusion rule)	USDA Food Access Research Atlas
pf_4000	4,000	residents	minimum 2010 population of a tract (a rule)	2010 census tracts in the comparison of Black and white women	2010 census			none (inclusion rule)	USDA Food Access Research Atlas
pf_6000	6,000	residents	minimum 2010 population of a tract (a rule)	2010 census tracts in the comparison of Black and white women	2010 census			none (inclusion rule)	USDA Food Access Research Atlas
pop_pairs_asian	37.9 million	people	sum of 2010 census tract population	residents of the tracts in the comparison with non-Hispanic Asian women	2010 census			none (full count)	USDA Food Access Research Atlas
pop_pairs_black	99.6 million	people	sum of 2010 census tract population	residents of the tracts in the comparison with non-Hispanic Black women	2010 census			none (full count)	USDA Food Access Research Atlas
pop_pairs_hisp	114.3 million	people	sum of 2010 census tract population	residents of the tracts in the comparison with Hispanic women of any race	2010 census			none (full count)	USDA Food Access Research Atlas
pop_tracts_share	99.0%	percent of the 2010 U.S. population	2010 population of the tracts with an estimate for all women and an ADI rank, as a share of the U.S. population	residents of the United States	2010 census			none (full count)	USDA Food Access Research Atlas
ratio_bw_d1	2.5	ratio of the group's predicted share to white women's	ratio of population-weighted mean predicted shares (group over white women), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the least deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 2.3 to 2.9	696 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
ratio_bw_d10	1.5	ratio of the group's predicted share to white women's	ratio of population-weighted mean predicted shares (group over white women), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the most deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 1.5 to 1.6	3,152 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
ratio_hw_d1	2.1	ratio of the group's predicted share to white women's	ratio of population-weighted mean predicted shares (group over white women), county-bootstrap interval	Hispanic women of any race and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the least deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 2.0 to 2.3	3,010 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
ratio_hw_d10	1.3	ratio of the group's predicted share to white women's	ratio of population-weighted mean predicted shares (group over white women), county-bootstrap interval	Hispanic women of any race and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the most deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 1.3 to 1.4	1,253 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
region_midwest	29.5%	percent of women with a teen birth	predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over counties (2010 census population as the weight), bootstrap interval over states	women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in counties of the Census Bureau's Midwest region	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s	95% CI 26.3% to 31.5%	1,052 counties	2010 census county population	Opportunity Atlas
region_northeast	21.7%	percent of women with a teen birth	predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over counties (2010 census population as the weight), bootstrap interval over states	women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in counties of the Census Bureau's Northeast region	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s	95% CI 19.7% to 23.0%	217 counties	2010 census county population	Opportunity Atlas
region_south	33.5%	percent of women with a teen birth	predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over counties (2010 census population as the weight), bootstrap interval over states	women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in counties of the Census Bureau's South region	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s	95% CI 31.4% to 35.6%	1,419 counties	2010 census county population	Opportunity Atlas
region_west	25.0%	percent of women with a teen birth	predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over counties (2010 census population as the weight), bootstrap interval over states	women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in counties of the Census Bureau's West region	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s	95% CI 23.5% to 29.2%	437 counties	2010 census county population	Opportunity Atlas
rise_adi_common	25.6	percentage points of women with a teen birth, most minus least deprived tenth	mean in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus mean in the least deprived tenth, tenths of the ADI national rank formed among these tracts, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with a 1990 poverty rate	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 24.3 to 26.9	71,295 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
rise_asian	15.8	percentage points of women with a teen birth, most minus least deprived tenth	mean in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus mean in the least deprived tenth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Asian women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 11.3 to 20.1	7,718 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
rise_black	18.1	percentage points of women with a teen birth, most minus least deprived tenth	mean in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus mean in the least deprived tenth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Black women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 16.9 to 19.9	25,216 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
rise_diff_asian	9.8	percentage points of women with a teen birth, rise for all women minus rise for non-Hispanic Asian women	rise from the least to the most deprived tenth of tracts for all women, minus the same rise for the group (each in its own tracts), same county draws	tracts with an Atlas estimate for all women and, separately, for non-Hispanic Asian women, each with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 5.4 to 14.4	71,303 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
rise_diff_black	7.5	percentage points of women with a teen birth, rise for all women minus rise for non-Hispanic Black women	rise from the least to the most deprived tenth of tracts for all women, minus the same rise for the group (each in its own tracts), same county draws	tracts with an Atlas estimate for all women and, separately, for non-Hispanic Black women, each with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 6.0 to 8.9	71,303 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
rise_diff_hisp	5.3	percentage points of women with a teen birth, rise for all women minus rise for Hispanic women of any race	rise from the least to the most deprived tenth of tracts for all women, minus the same rise for the group (each in its own tracts), same county draws	tracts with an Atlas estimate for all women and, separately, for Hispanic women of any race, each with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 3.7 to 7.1	71,303 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
rise_diff_white	3.9	percentage points of women with a teen birth, rise for all women minus rise for non-Hispanic white women	rise from the least to the most deprived tenth of tracts for all women, minus the same rise for the group (each in its own tracts), same county draws	tracts with an Atlas estimate for all women and, separately, for non-Hispanic white women, each with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 2.3 to 5.2	71,303 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
rise_hisp	20.3	percentage points of women with a teen birth, most minus least deprived tenth	mean in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus mean in the least deprived tenth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	Hispanic women of any race raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 18.1 to 22.2	25,785 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
rise_pooled	25.6	percentage points of women with a teen birth, most minus least deprived tenth	mean in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus mean in the least deprived tenth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 24.3 to 26.9	71,303 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
rise_pov1990	24.1	percentage points of women with a teen birth, most minus least deprived tenth	mean in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus mean in the least deprived tenth, tenths of the 1990 tract poverty rate formed among these tracts, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with a 1990 poverty rate	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 22.7 to 25.5	71,295 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
rise_pov_diff	−1.5	percentage points of women with a teen birth, rise by tenths of 1990 poverty minus rise by tenths of the ADI	rise across tenths of the 1990 tract poverty rate minus rise across tenths of the ADI rank, on the same tracts, county-bootstrap interval from the same draws	all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with a 1990 poverty rate	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI −2.8 to −0.2	71,295 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
rise_white	21.7	percentage points of women with a teen birth, most minus least deprived tenth	mean in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus mean in the least deprived tenth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 20.7 to 22.8	64,974 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
share_single	56.4%	percent of tracts	share of 2010 tracts that overlap exactly one 2020 tract, where the crosswalk gives the ADI rank without averaging	all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023		71,303 tracts	none (each tract counts once)	Opportunity Atlas
slope_adi10	2.5	percentage points of women with a teen birth per ten points of ADI national rank	population-weighted slope of the predicted teen birth share on the ADI national rank, times ten, county-bootstrap interval	all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 2.4 to 2.7	71,303 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
slope_cty	0.85	percentage points of Black women's share per point of white women's share	slope of the county mean Black share on the county mean white share, weighted by 2010 population summed to the county, bootstrap interval over states	non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in counties with at least 20 tracts where the Atlas estimates both	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 0.70 to 1.00	261 counties	2010 census population summed to the county	Opportunity Atlas
slope_tract	0.41	percentage points of Black women's share per point of white women's share	slope of the tract's Black share on its white share over these tracts, population-weighted, county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the tracts of the counties with at least 20 tracts where the Atlas estimates both	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 0.35 to 0.46	15,239 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
slope_within	0.26	percentage points of Black women's share per point of white women's share	slope of the tract's Black share on its white share after subtracting each county's population-weighted mean from both (differences between counties removed), population-weighted, county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the tracts of the counties with at least 20 tracts where the Atlas estimates both	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 0.23 to 0.29	15,239 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
south_all_share	45%	percent of counties	share of those counties that are in the South region	counties in the states and DC with an estimate	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s		3,125 counties	none (each county counts once)	Opportunity Atlas
south_minus_mw	4.0	percentage points of women with a teen birth, South minus Midwest	South region mean minus Midwest region mean of the predicted share, bootstrap interval over states from the same draws	women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in the states and the District of Columbia	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s	95% CI 1.2 to 7.6	3,125 counties	2010 census county population	Opportunity Atlas
south_minus_ne	11.8	percentage points of women with a teen birth, South minus Northeast	South region mean minus Northeast region mean of the predicted share, bootstrap interval over states from the same draws	women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in the states and the District of Columbia	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s	95% CI 9.3 to 14.6	3,125 counties	2010 census county population	Opportunity Atlas
south_minus_w	8.5	percentage points of women with a teen birth, South minus West	South region mean minus West region mean of the predicted share, bootstrap interval over states from the same draws	women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in the states and the District of Columbia	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s	95% CI 4.1 to 11.1	3,125 counties	2010 census county population	Opportunity Atlas
south_top_share	93%	percent of counties	share of those counties that are in the South region	counties in the highest tenth of county values (states and DC)	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s		313 counties	none (each county counts once)	Opportunity Atlas
white_bw	23.3%	percent of women with a teen birth	predicted share, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval	non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas also estimates non-Hispanic Black women	women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023	95% CI 22.6% to 24.0%	20,884 tracts	2010 census tract population	Opportunity Atlas
wonder_low	15	years of age	lower age limit of the teen band in the WONDER natality tables used in the chapter on recent births	births in CDC WONDER natality tables for the youngest mother-age band that most counties publish	2018 to 2024			none (definition)	CDC WONDER natality

Definitions

Census tract: A small area drawn by the Census Bureau to stand in for a neighborhood. Boundaries are redrawn after each decennial census.
Modeled estimate: A figure produced by a statistical model instead of a direct count or measurement, usually for small areas where direct data are thin, borrowing strength from surveys, neighboring areas or other data. Neighboring areas can share errors, so single extremes call for caution.
Bootstrap interval: A range for an estimate found by recomputing it on many random resamples of the data and reading the range from the results. It shows how much the estimate would vary from sample to sample.
Area Deprivation Index (ADI): A score that ranks neighborhoods by income, education, employment and housing conditions drawn from the American Community Survey. In this book a higher national percentile means a more deprived neighborhood.
Ecological inference: Drawing conclusions about individuals from data about places or groups. A pattern across counties need not hold for the people inside them.

Methods

The teen birth measure is the Opportunity Atlas's predicted share of women who ever claimed, as a dependent, a child born when they were between the ages of 13 and 19, for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, so it is a model prediction that describes teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s. Neighborhoods are ranked by the Area Deprivation Index for 2019 to 2023, decades after the births. Tracts are weighted by their 2010 census population because the Atlas has no counts of women, and the Atlas adds privacy noise to every estimate.

What the teen birth measure is and which tracts it covers

The staged tract file has one value for all women and one for each of white, Black, Hispanic and Asian women, on native 2010 tracts (73,278 tracts in the file). The Atlas adds privacy noise to every estimate and the values are never clipped. A tract enters a comparison when the estimates exist, its 2010 population is positive and it has a deprivation rank.

Figures explained here: Figure 2, Figure 3 and Figure 4

How deprivation and its tenths are defined

Deprivation is the Area Deprivation Index national rank, a block-group index (ACS 2019 to 2023) whose 2020-tract value is the unweighted mean of its block groups' ranks; a 2010 tract takes the land-area-weighted mean of the values of the 2020 tracts that overlap it, when those with a rank cover at least half of its land area.

Tenths are tenths of all 71,642 tracts in the file with a rank and a positive population (near-equal numbers; tied ranks stay together), whether or not they have an Atlas estimate, so a tenth means the same part of the scale for every group. A sensitivity check ranks tracts by the 1990 census poverty rate in the Opportunity Atlas tract covariates file (a raw file read once in the build) in place of the ADI.

Figures explained here: Figure 2, Figure 3 and Figure 5

How tracts are weighted and which tracts each comparison uses

Each tract is weighted by its 2010 census population, read from the USDA Food Access Research Atlas file (the Atlas has no counts of women); counting each tract once gives similar results.

Sentences about comparisons between groups use the tracts where both groups are estimated.

Figures explained here: Figure 2, Figure 3, Figure 4 and Figure 5

How the county comparisons, regions and map are built

In the county version of the comparison a county enters when at least 20 of its tracts have both estimates, and the floors on tracts per county (1, 5, 10, 20 and 50) and on tract population (2,000, 4,000 and 6,000 residents) are tried in the last figure.

Regions are the Census Bureau's four regions. The county map uses the Atlas's own county estimates for all women.

Figures explained here: Figure 6, Figure 7 and Figure 1

How uncertainty is measured

Intervals are 95% percentile intervals from 2,000 draws of whole counties with replacement (seed 12345), computed by one routine for means, shares, slopes, correlations and differences; quantities built from county means, and the regional means and differences, resample states.

Four rankings of the same places

The comparison follows the book's ranking switch rule, fixed on October 28, 2026 before any of these gradients was computed. The main gradient of the chapter is recomputed under four rankings of the same places, with the outcome, period, weights, bins and intervals unchanged: the published ADI; a standardized index that applies the ADI's coefficients to its measures after standardizing each one across tracts; median household income; and the share of adults 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more. The three alternatives come from ACS tract estimates for 2019 to 2023, the period of the ADI.

All four rankings use the same places, the 66,005 tracts that have the outcome and all four rankings, so the ADI panel can differ slightly from the chapter's main figure. Tracts enter only if they have every input of the standardized index, which leaves out tracts without a median rent, home value or mortgage cost. Each 2010 tract takes the land-area-weighted mean of each ranking over the common-sample 2020 tracts that overlap it, when they cover at least half of its land area, the chapter's construction of its ADI, and tenths are tenths of the 2010 tracts with all four rankings and a positive population.

A pattern counts as changed when the worse end switches sides, when the two ends differ under one ranking and not the other, or when the rank correlation of bin order and bin mean falls on the other side of 0.9 and moves by at least 0.1.

Figure explained here: Figure 8

What these data cannot show

References

Chetty, Raj; Friedman, John N.; Hendren, Nathaniel; Jones, Maggie R.; Porter, Sonya R. (2018). The Opportunity Atlas: Mapping the Childhood Roots of Social Mobility. NBER Working Paper 25147. doi:10.3386/w25147
Chetty, Raj; Hendren, Nathaniel; Jones, Maggie R.; Porter, Sonya R. (2020). Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 135(2): 711-783. doi:10.1093/qje/qjz042
Kind, Amy J. H.; Buckingham, William R. (2018). Making Neighborhood-Disadvantage Metrics Accessible: The Neighborhood Atlas. New England Journal of Medicine 378(26): 2456-2458. doi:10.1056/NEJMp1802313
Lindo, Jason M.; Packham, Analisa (2017). How Much Can Expanding Access to Long-Acting Reversible Contraceptives Reduce Teen Birth Rates?. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 9(3): 348-376. doi:10.1257/pol.20160039
Kearney, Melissa S.; Levine, Phillip B. (2012). Why Is the Teen Birth Rate in the United States So High and Why Does It Matter?. Journal of Economic Perspectives 26(2): 141-163. doi:10.1257/jep.26.2.141

Provenance

Pipeline version: 0.1.0
Build script: book2/chapters/teen-births/build.py (sha256 4b90bc9f7e275ccdb11c1c2b5a1cc0008e14bac5341973cb7f15bf02d3da4d7b)
Built on: 2026-10-09
Site commit: c2b1ff3309cb4a10833f884da91ac0057a66ad0a

Inputs

File	Size (bytes)	SHA-256, first 1 MB	SHA-256, last 1 MB
book2/chapters/teen-births/counties.py	5,643	a2a44c720be89f3468ab2764f7aa5d2e93c0e20f5029d463200d98560ceb5fe4	a2a44c720be89f3468ab2764f7aa5d2e93c0e20f5029d463200d98560ceb5fe4
book2/chapters/teen-births/tracts.py	18,878	1b0162cdc75c20811103c3d872ca7851bd485bcc7d170e8ff3a503ab06b4ab61	1b0162cdc75c20811103c3d872ca7851bd485bcc7d170e8ff3a503ab06b4ab61
data/analytic/tract_atlas.parquet	39,659,925	29d5e4d943552d54aeb6ba92aadc939d9bd15bdea553c78357dbd516757be627	1e10d1ecf722340f23ee2212d4999a90250f85b65fa89b39e32db06d9472e22e
data/raw/acs/deprivation_components_2019_2023/tract.parquet	13,197,793	5545cde2cbe96a8b56e468d65388248a241aa6bd300d3c9e325d08d3f86b11da	5c8ec454d066988b0f1a01aaa6ed34ebfc05d162e01cf9c6bb01f9198cbaff12
data/raw/opportunity_atlus/tract_covariates.csv	24,907,347	ed9f5cff16e2fa96cf7cf8c775094b21fa83c5e87ffca5be740889f946096fa9	09330f908e2e484b1b85b060727015d0a1106721479ab42dcba9a899c6d5d09f
data/staged/adi/adi_atlas_tract2020_2023.parquet	798,078	5e409bc212ff871def780fa27b4cf8b616d9da420b2b9f6455517eddcd8c1a95	5e409bc212ff871def780fa27b4cf8b616d9da420b2b9f6455517eddcd8c1a95
data/staged/crosswalks/tract_2010_to_2020.parquet	2,602,636	f7526f0d1bac31dbc540f6d733a850c9e0ee4c7622011214c04afedfbfa1e0a5	9e573492f9804b571b9944a53cc59fadab4051a175952b058f77cc5a644a98ff
data/staged/food_access/food_access_tract2010_2019.parquet	37,967,838	c36929f1809e9ac84ac5f1cb62140bd980c315287833c6f281839df4c1619c89	05a17b940a79393b0c2ce5c9e9248496c319cba6896b63af3a2df34fe04f63aa
data/staged/mobility/oa_module1_tract2010.parquet	14,946,600	32583830e03567b41ad3c245ca41aa67fb9cb55a8a46e8d9ae4c77a6cc2fcd83	6d67fac56edd8f07346375fb0b97e3c82621d57457d89c7fe93ec6f1b758bfaf
data/staged/mobility/oa_outcomes_county.parquet	721,343	fd7bc55294fbd3f7a646f27083500c1f12415775db7a3607878b522d277f8140	fd7bc55294fbd3f7a646f27083500c1f12415775db7a3607878b522d277f8140
data/staged/ses/acs5_tract2020_2019_2023.parquet	7,232,424	5fe6f730a35225f14d5d8abfc6b9bce58b52e545f309a7eac74f1dae74d7a31c	7b4a2475b3852d3f91804716a04566ef8ceadacec2be9fb85f5eb642078efac6
data/staged/svi/svi_tract2020_2022.parquet	17,740,415	cb3860d8edc2aaf1f2a02211a58f7a0b80457eb6ad9a37b5ec8abb2d5da9da10	e371a4a696d5bed05d54ad7c5b6ca2504508805b847ec415c2322be7f66ec2b2

Outputs

File	SHA-256
facts.json	58432d8c5da5f66f3d277a165542e5ff751f6f1d34af62ba767f6d81a2d88c12
figures/alt_rankings.json	0a0cf476dc955f9ffece13e9d3fd238082a9c44fd2ec2d441ba0800c394cd651
figures/teen_birth_black_white_by_deprivation.json	cc14ff3eda9ca3896dabeff6196305c7367d7cd52e95a33adf5578784a1c602e
figures/teen_birth_black_white_counties.json	dad8a08d472017e2bdf630d5e7e1df916ac7f00133bea348a0b3e4823af649c1
figures/teen_birth_by_deprivation_tracts.json	bc9c3f68f15ce4f0a78770d0e8cf7d9f94ca648adbe42d20fe9bb7fbae6cdd78
figures/teen_birth_county_map.json	e3b79939cdaa42e21e1f220cd8b9949f6b90116bf32ffa28740e0d966dae3d90
figures/teen_birth_gap_floors.json	f431cb59d60f3ea65c610f5e18f5c4fc6b0fdd49ce65b78c9b236c20b12cbc69
figures/teen_birth_gaps_same_tract.json	9d50658745f83b0a647efbf230b0d6583c021beab92086152bf2b5b2acddec2b
figures/teen_birth_gradient_by_group.json	e3cbc028fa34fcb169d79f9824bcc81d831db883d748b648dfc29d8d6258a1c0
meta.json	1a45292e0de3e82d05872635eeb2ec211e77263df31f9f32fb0bb0b714542ce4
public/data/teen-births/teen_birth_county_map.json	a50245ff82371abb91f6a498d0b4a9d1403b32bef5228ef8df574877d62e049a
public/data/teen-births/teen_birth_tract_cloud.json	cc639216a549ddec6809920c8490706e0505af9035c417a267ee22d861618a73
refs.json	be60b432fb8b51ac3013c21518fb5e3d84fb7f21f7310e5f143e425c5808412d

Machine formats

Report (Markdown): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/teen-births/report.md
Every estimate (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/facts.json
Table 1, figure "teen_birth_county_map" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_county_map.json
Table 2, figure "teen_birth_by_deprivation_tracts" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_by_deprivation_tracts.json
Table 3, figure "teen_birth_gradient_by_group" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_gradient_by_group.json
Table 4, figure "teen_birth_gaps_same_tract" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_gaps_same_tract.json
Table 5, figure "teen_birth_black_white_by_deprivation" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_black_white_by_deprivation.json
Table 6, figure "teen_birth_black_white_counties" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_black_white_counties.json
Table 7, figure "teen_birth_gap_floors" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_gap_floors.json
Table 8, figure "alt_rankings" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/alt_rankings.json
Payload of "teen_birth_county_map" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/data/teen-births/teen_birth_county_map.json
Payload of "teen_birth_by_deprivation_tracts" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/data/teen-births/teen_birth_tract_cloud.json
Index of every report: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/llms.txt; all reports in one file: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/llms-full.txt

Identification

Principal estimates

Findings

How the Atlas measures a teen birth

Predicted shares are higher in the South than in any other region

The share rises with neighborhood deprivation in every tenth of tracts

The share rises across the deprivation scale for every group

Black, Hispanic and Asian women raised in the same tract as white women

The Black-white gap shows no detectable change across the deprivation scale

The gap in county averages is similar under every floor on tracts

Evidence on whether contraceptive access changes teen birth rates

The share rises across the tenths of tracts under all four rankings

What these data cannot show

Tables

Table 1. Predicted teen birth shares are higher in the South than in any other region, 33.5% against 21.7% in the Northeast

Table 2. Predicted teen birth shares rise from 12.9% in the least deprived tenth of tracts to 38.5% in the most deprived

Table 3. Every group's predicted teen birth share is higher in the most deprived tenth of tracts than in the least deprived

Table 4. Black women's predicted teen birth share was 17.6 points above white women's in the same tracts, Hispanic women's 10.9 points above and Asian women's 7.1 points below

Table 5. The Black-white gap in predicted teen birth shares shows no detectable change from the least to the most deprived tenth of tracts, −0.7 points with an interval that includes zero

Table 6. Across counties, Black women's predicted teen birth share rises 0.85 points for each point of white women's, against 0.26 among tracts within the same counties

Table 7. The Black-white gap in predicted teen birth shares has an interval above zero under all nine floors on tracts per county and on tract population

Table 8. The predicted teen birth share is steadily higher toward the more deprived end under the ADI and under each of the three other rankings

All estimates

Definitions

Methods

What the teen birth measure is and which tracts it covers

How deprivation and its tenths are defined

How tracts are weighted and which tracts each comparison uses

How the county comparisons, regions and map are built

How uncertainty is measured

Four rankings of the same places

What these data cannot show

References

Provenance

Machine formats