{
  "alt": "Scatter plot of the predicted share of women with a teen birth in each tract against the tract's deprivation rank. A wide cloud of dots slopes upward from the least deprived tracts on the left to the most deprived on the right, and a line of tenth-of-tracts means with narrow intervals rises at every step.",
  "caption": "Dots drift upward from left to right and the tenth-of-tracts means rise at every step, though the dots within any tenth are spread widely. Dots are a random sample of {fact:n_cloud} of the {fact:n_tracts} tracts, and {fact:n_cloud_outside} tracts fall outside the plotted range; markers are population-weighted means for tenths of tracts with 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties.",
  "data": [],
  "id": "teen_birth_by_deprivation_tracts",
  "notes": [
    "The dots are a random sample of {fact:n_cloud} tracts inside the plotted range (seed 12345); every estimate uses all {fact:n_tracts} tracts. The spread of the dots includes sampling noise and privacy noise in each tract estimate.",
    "The Area Deprivation Index is built for census block groups from American Community Survey measures for 2019 to 2023, and a 2020 tract's value is the unweighted mean of its block groups' ranks. Each 2010 tract takes the land-area-weighted mean of the values of the 2020 tracts that overlap it, when those with a rank cover at least {fact:adi_cover} of its land area. Tenths hold near-equal numbers of tracts, with tied ranks kept together.",
    "Shares are the Atlas's predicted share of women with a teen birth, a child born when the mother was between the ages of {fact:age_low} and {fact:age_high} whom she claimed as a dependent, for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile. White, Black and Asian women are non-Hispanic and Hispanic women may be of any race. The Atlas adds noise to its estimates to protect privacy and the staged values are never clipped, so a few fall below 0 or above 100."
  ],
  "source": "Opportunity Atlas tract outcomes, 2010 tracts, 1978-1983 birth cohorts, and Area Deprivation Index, 2023 release (ACS 2019-2023); population-weighted (2010 tract population), modeled estimates",
  "spec": {
    "overlays": [
      {
        "hi": "hi",
        "kind": "line",
        "label": "Mean for each tenth of tracts with 95% intervals",
        "lo": "lo",
        "rows": [
          {
            "hi": 14.01,
            "lo": 11.85,
            "n_units": 7103,
            "x": 5.97,
            "y": 12.95
          },
          {
            "hi": 19.34,
            "lo": 16.06,
            "n_units": 7114,
            "x": 16.08,
            "y": 17.73
          },
          {
            "hi": 21.14,
            "lo": 18.97,
            "n_units": 7106,
            "x": 25.86,
            "y": 20.03
          },
          {
            "hi": 23.01,
            "lo": 21.62,
            "n_units": 7130,
            "x": 35.77,
            "y": 22.31
          },
          {
            "hi": 25.17,
            "lo": 23.94,
            "n_units": 7123,
            "x": 45.71,
            "y": 24.55
          },
          {
            "hi": 27.15,
            "lo": 25.9,
            "n_units": 7147,
            "x": 55.43,
            "y": 26.54
          },
          {
            "hi": 29.25,
            "lo": 28.03,
            "n_units": 7144,
            "x": 64.87,
            "y": 28.65
          },
          {
            "hi": 31.26,
            "lo": 29.92,
            "n_units": 7164,
            "x": 74.32,
            "y": 30.57
          },
          {
            "hi": 33.37,
            "lo": 32.12,
            "n_units": 7046,
            "x": 83.85,
            "y": 32.75
          },
          {
            "hi": 39.27,
            "lo": 37.79,
            "n_units": 7226,
            "x": 94.16,
            "y": 38.54
          }
        ],
        "x": "x",
        "y": "y"
      }
    ],
    "payload": "teen_birth_tract_cloud.json",
    "x": "adi",
    "xDomain": [
      0,
      100
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "xLabel": "Area Deprivation Index national rank (1 = least deprived, 100 = most deprived)",
    "y": "teen",
    "yDomain": [
      -10,
      80
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "yLabel": "Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) against the Area Deprivation Index national rank, one dot per 2010 tract, women born 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile (teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s, not a current rate), races pooled",
  "title": "Predicted teen birth shares rise from {fact:d1_pooled} in the least deprived tenth of tracts to {fact:d10_pooled} in the most deprived",
  "type": "scatter"
}