Chapter 5.4 · Where illness keeps company
Multiple chronic conditions
Weighted by adults, a tract in the most deprived tenth is high on 5.7 of nine chronic conditions on average, against 0.5 in the least deprived tenth, and the conditions correlate at +0.49 across tracts, a figure that is +0.47 after an approximation of the model's census inputs and state effects is removed, which does not show that the overlap is real.
Weighted by adults, a tract in the most deprived tenth of census tractsCensus tractA small area drawn by the Census Bureau to stand in for a neighborhood. Boundaries are redrawn after each decennial census. is in the highest 25%25% percent of tractsEstimanddefinition: a tract is high on a condition when its prevalence is in the highest 25% of tracts, ties at their mean rankWeightsnone (a definition)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES of all tracts for the prevalence of 5.7 (95% CI 5.5 to 5.8)5.7 conditions (of nine)Estimandmean number of the nine conditions that are high, population-weighted mean over a tenth of tracts, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 5.5 to 5.8n8,213 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the most deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentilePeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES of nine chronic conditions on average, against 0.5 (95% CI 0.4 to 0.6)0.5 conditions (of nine)Estimandmean number of the nine conditions that are high, population-weighted mean over a tenth of tracts, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.4 to 0.6n8,274 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the least deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentilePeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES in the least deprived tenth, a difference of 5.2 (95% CI 5.0 to 5.4)5.2 conditions (of nine)Estimanddifference between the population-weighted mean count of high conditions in the most and the least deprived tenth of tracts, bootstrap interval over counties (draws shared)Interval95% CI 5.0 to 5.4n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the most deprived tenth of tracts compared with the least deprived tenthPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES conditions. Across 82,78182,781 tractsEstimandcount of tractsWeightsnone (full count)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES tracts, the average correlation between the prevalences of two of the conditions is +0.49 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.51)+0.49 correlation coefficient (mean of the 36 pairs)Estimandmean of the population-weighted Pearson correlations over the 36 pairs of conditions, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.48 to 0.51n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES. This chapter asks which conditions are high in the same neighborhoods and how that overlap changes with deprivationArea Deprivation Index (ADI)A score that ranks neighborhoods by income, education, employment and housing conditions drawn from the American Community Survey. In this book a higher national percentile means a more deprived neighborhood.. It is a chapter about places and says nothing about how many conditions any one person has.
The data are modeled estimatesModeled estimateA figure produced by a statistical model instead of a direct count or measurement, usually for small areas where direct data are thin, borrowing strength from surveys, neighboring areas or other data. Neighboring areas can share errors, so single extremes call for caution. from CDC PLACES, which gives each tract one prevalence for each condition among adults and holds no record of any person.[1] In surveys that ask each adult about each condition, multiple chronic conditions means having two or more of them,[2] and a tract estimate cannot be turned into that count. A tract can be high on several conditions while no resident has more than one, and a tract can be high on none while some residents have several. A count of conditions in this chapter is a count of tract prevalences above a stated cutoff.
PLACES publishes 4040 measuresEstimandcount of measure ids in the staged tract fileWeightsnone (full count)Populationhealth measures that PLACES publishes for tractsPeriodPLACES 2024 releaseSourceCDC PLACES measures for tracts. The 99 conditionsEstimanddefinition: the number of conditions in the countWeightsnone (a definition)PopulationPLACES health outcome measures that cover all adults and have an estimate in every statePeriodPLACES 2024 releaseSourceCDC PLACES conditions used here are the health outcome measures that cover all adults and have a tract estimate in every state: arthritis, cancer (non-skin) or melanoma, current asthma, coronary heart disease, COPD, depression, diagnosed diabetes, obesity and stroke. PLACES lists obesity, a measure of body weight, with the health outcomes. High blood pressure and high cholesterol (among adults ever screened) are left out because the 2024 release has no estimate of either for the 5,0775,077 tractsEstimandcount of tracts with no high blood pressure estimateWeightsnone (full count)PopulationFlorida census tractsPeriodPLACES 2024 release (BRFSS 2021 for blood pressure)SourceCDC PLACES tracts of Florida, and a check on high blood pressure outside Florida appears at the end. A tract is high on a condition when its prevalence is in the highest 25%25% percent of tractsEstimanddefinition: a tract is high on a condition when its prevalence is in the highest 25% of tracts, ties at their mean rankWeightsnone (a definition)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES of tracts, with each tract counted once, and the count of a tract is the number of the nine conditions on which it is high. Means, correlations and shares of adults are population-weightedPopulation-weightedAveraged so that each place counts in proportion to its number of residents, which lets a large county move the result more than a small one. An unweighted average counts every place equally. by the adults in each tract, and counts and shares of tracts count each tract once. Of the 83,52283,522 tractsEstimandcount of tractsWeightsnone (full count)Population2020 census tracts with a CDC PLACES 2024 release estimate for all nine conditionsPeriodPLACES 2024 releaseSourceCDC PLACES tracts with estimates, 82,78182,781 tractsEstimandcount of tractsWeightsnone (full count)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES also have a rank on the Area Deprivation IndexArea Deprivation Index (ADI)A score that ranks neighborhoods by income, education, employment and housing conditions drawn from the American Community Survey. In this book a higher national percentile means a more deprived neighborhood. (ADI), a national percentile built from American Community Survey (ACS) data,[3] and the other 741741 tractsEstimandcount of tracts left outWeightsnone (full count)Populationcensus tracts with a PLACES estimate that have no ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceArea Deprivation Index are left out. The approximation of the model's inputs in the fourth section needs ACS shares, and the ACS file lacks three of them for the District of Columbia, so that section leaves out the 203203 tractsEstimandcount of sample tracts left out of the approximation onlyWeightsnone (full count)Populationsample tracts that lack at least one of the ACS inputs of the approximationPeriodACS 2019-2023SourceAmerican Community Survey tracts that lack a share, among them the 201201 tractsEstimandcount of tracts; the ACS file lacks the under-18, white-alone and Asian-alone shares for the District of ColumbiaWeightsnone (full count)Populationtracts of the District of Columbia in the samplePeriodACS 2019-2023SourceAmerican Community Survey tracts of the District of Columbia. Every other statistic includes them.
The PLACES 2024 release uses survey responses from 2022, and from 2021 for blood pressure. Values are crude prevalence among adults, so the age structure of a tract moves them. The tract file carries no intervals, and the bands in this chapter come from resampling counties.
Stroke, diabetes, COPD and heart disease are high in the same tracts
The strongest correlations join stroke, diabetes, COPD, coronary heart disease and arthritis (Figure 1). Across tracts the prevalence of stroke correlates +0.90 (95% CI 0.89 to 0.92)+0.90 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted Pearson correlation of tract prevalence of stroke and diagnosed diabetes, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.89 to 0.92n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES with diabetes, +0.90 (95% CI 0.89 to 0.90)+0.90 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted Pearson correlation of tract prevalence of stroke and COPD, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.89 to 0.90n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES with COPD and +0.86 (95% CI 0.85 to 0.87)+0.86 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted Pearson correlation of tract prevalence of stroke and coronary heart disease, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.85 to 0.87n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES with heart disease, and the pairs among stroke, diabetes, COPD and heart disease run from +0.74+0.74 correlation coefficientEstimandsmallest population-weighted correlation among the six pairs of coronary heart disease, COPD, diagnosed diabetes and stroke (Coronary heart disease and Diabetes), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.71 to 0.76n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES to +0.90+0.90 correlation coefficientEstimandlargest population-weighted correlation among the six pairs of coronary heart disease, COPD, diagnosed diabetes and stroke (Diabetes and Stroke), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.89 to 0.92n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES. Arthritis correlates +0.90 (95% CI 0.89 to 0.91)+0.90 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted Pearson correlation of tract prevalence of arthritis and coronary heart disease, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.89 to 0.91n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES with heart disease. At the other end, cancer and depression have the weakest correlations with the rest, and depression correlates only +0.06 (95% CI 0.01 to 0.11)+0.06 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted Pearson correlation of tract prevalence of depression and diagnosed diabetes, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.01 to 0.11n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES with diabetes. The mean correlation of cancer with the other eight conditions is +0.22 (95% CI 0.19 to 0.25)+0.22 correlation coefficient (mean over the other eight conditions)Estimandmean of the correlations of cancer with the other eight conditions, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.19 to 0.25n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES and that of depression is +0.26 (95% CI 0.22 to 0.30)+0.26 correlation coefficient (mean over the other eight conditions)Estimandmean of the correlations of depression with the other eight conditions, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.22 to 0.30n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES, against +0.68 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.69)+0.68 correlation coefficient (mean over the other eight conditions)Estimandmean of the correlations of COPD with the other eight conditions, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.66 to 0.69n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES for COPD. Of the 3636 pairs of conditionsEstimanddefinition: nine choose twoWeightsnone (a definition)Populationpairs among the nine conditionsPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES pairs, 3232 pairs of conditionsEstimandcount of pairs whose 95% bootstrap interval lies above zeron36 pairs of conditionsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationpairs among the nine conditions with an interval entirely above zeroPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES have an interval entirely above zero and 22 pairs of conditionsEstimandcount of pairs whose 95% bootstrap interval lies below zeron36 pairs of conditionsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationpairs among the nine conditions with an interval entirely below zeroPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES have one entirely below it, cancer with asthma (−0.13 (95% CI −0.20 to −0.07)−0.13 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted Pearson correlation of tract prevalence of cancer and current asthma, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI −0.20 to −0.07n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES) and cancer with obesity (−0.11 (95% CI −0.18 to −0.05)−0.11 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted Pearson correlation of tract prevalence of cancer and obesity, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI −0.18 to −0.05n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES). One principal componentPrincipal componentsA method that combines many correlated measures into a few summary scores, ordered by how much of the variation among places each captures. The first component is the single weighted combination that captures the most. accounts for 59.0% (95% CI 57.9% to 60.2%)59.0% percent of the variance of the standardized prevalencesEstimandshare of the variance on the first principal component of the nine standardized prevalences, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 57.9% to 60.2%n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES of the variance of the nine standardized prevalences, so most of the difference between tracts in these conditions follows a single shared pattern. Every correlation here is between modeled estimates and is partly built in by the inputs the model shares across conditions, a point the section on the model's inputs takes up.
Figure 1
Stroke, diabetes, COPD and heart disease are high in the same tracts, with correlations from +0.74 to +0.90, while cancer correlates −0.13 with asthma
Population-weighted Pearson correlations between the tract prevalence of nine chronic conditions among adults, 82,781 census tracts, 2022
| Measure | Cancer | Arthritis | Coronary heart disease | COPD | Stroke | Diabetes | Obesity | Asthma | Depression |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cancer | +1.00 | +0.74, interval +0.72 to +0.76, n = 82,781 | +0.63, interval +0.60 to +0.66, n = 82,781 | +0.33, interval +0.30 to +0.36, n = 82,781 | +0.25, interval +0.20 to +0.29, n = 82,781 | +0.05, interval 0.00 to +0.11, n = 82,781 | −0.11, interval −0.18 to −0.05, n = 82,781 | −0.13, interval −0.20 to −0.07, n = 82,781 | 0.00, interval −0.07 to +0.06, n = 82,781 |
| Arthritis | +0.74, interval +0.72 to +0.76, n = 82,781 | +1.00 | +0.90, interval +0.89 to +0.91, n = 82,781 | +0.81, interval +0.80 to +0.82, n = 82,781 | +0.74, interval +0.71 to +0.76, n = 82,781 | +0.58, interval +0.52 to +0.64, n = 82,781 | +0.48, interval +0.42 to +0.53, n = 82,781 | +0.37, interval +0.32 to +0.42, n = 82,781 | +0.25, interval +0.20 to +0.30, n = 82,781 |
| Coronary heart disease | +0.63, interval +0.60 to +0.66, n = 82,781 | +0.90, interval +0.89 to +0.91, n = 82,781 | +1.00 | +0.88, interval +0.87 to +0.89, n = 82,781 | +0.86, interval +0.85 to +0.88, n = 82,781 | +0.74, interval +0.71 to +0.76, n = 82,781 | +0.48, interval +0.43 to +0.52, n = 82,781 | +0.34, interval +0.28 to +0.38, n = 82,781 | +0.17, interval +0.12 to +0.22, n = 82,781 |
| COPD | +0.33, interval +0.30 to +0.36, n = 82,781 | +0.81, interval +0.80 to +0.82, n = 82,781 | +0.88, interval +0.87 to +0.89, n = 82,781 | +1.00 | +0.90, interval +0.89 to +0.90, n = 82,781 | +0.77, interval +0.74 to +0.80, n = 82,781 | +0.69, interval +0.67 to +0.72, n = 82,781 | +0.61, interval +0.57 to +0.64, n = 82,781 | +0.42, interval +0.37 to +0.46, n = 82,781 |
| Stroke | +0.25, interval +0.20 to +0.29, n = 82,781 | +0.74, interval +0.71 to +0.76, n = 82,781 | +0.86, interval +0.85 to +0.88, n = 82,781 | +0.90, interval +0.89 to +0.90, n = 82,781 | +1.00 | +0.90, interval +0.89 to +0.92, n = 82,781 | +0.65, interval +0.62 to +0.68, n = 82,781 | +0.55, interval +0.51 to +0.58, n = 82,781 | +0.15, interval +0.11 to +0.19, n = 82,781 |
| Diabetes | +0.05, interval 0.00 to +0.11, n = 82,781 | +0.58, interval +0.52 to +0.64, n = 82,781 | +0.74, interval +0.71 to +0.76, n = 82,781 | +0.77, interval +0.74 to +0.80, n = 82,781 | +0.90, interval +0.89 to +0.92, n = 82,781 | +1.00 | +0.69, interval +0.65 to +0.73, n = 82,781 | +0.40, interval +0.36 to +0.46, n = 82,781 | +0.06, interval +0.01 to +0.10, n = 82,781 |
| Obesity | −0.11, interval −0.18 to −0.05, n = 82,781 | +0.48, interval +0.42 to +0.53, n = 82,781 | +0.48, interval +0.43 to +0.52, n = 82,781 | +0.69, interval +0.67 to +0.72, n = 82,781 | +0.65, interval +0.62 to +0.68, n = 82,781 | +0.69, interval +0.65 to +0.73, n = 82,781 | +1.00 | +0.64, interval +0.59 to +0.69, n = 82,781 | +0.41, interval +0.35 to +0.46, n = 82,781 |
| Asthma | −0.13, interval −0.20 to −0.07, n = 82,781 | +0.37, interval +0.32 to +0.42, n = 82,781 | +0.34, interval +0.28 to +0.38, n = 82,781 | +0.61, interval +0.57 to +0.64, n = 82,781 | +0.55, interval +0.51 to +0.58, n = 82,781 | +0.40, interval +0.36 to +0.46, n = 82,781 | +0.64, interval +0.59 to +0.69, n = 82,781 | +1.00 | +0.62, interval +0.57 to +0.66, n = 82,781 |
| Depression | 0.00, interval −0.07 to +0.06, n = 82,781 | +0.25, interval +0.20 to +0.30, n = 82,781 | +0.17, interval +0.12 to +0.22, n = 82,781 | +0.42, interval +0.37 to +0.46, n = 82,781 | +0.15, interval +0.11 to +0.19, n = 82,781 | +0.06, interval +0.01 to +0.10, n = 82,781 | +0.41, interval +0.35 to +0.46, n = 82,781 | +0.62, interval +0.57 to +0.66, n = 82,781 | +1.00 |
Show data
| conf_high | conf_low | measure | n | other | r |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n/a | n/a | Cancer | n/a | Cancer | 1 |
| 0.755 | 0.718 | Cancer | 82,781 | Arthritis | 0.738 |
| 0.655 | 0.601 | Cancer | 82,781 | Coronary heart disease | 0.629 |
| 0.362 | 0.297 | Cancer | 82,781 | COPD | 0.332 |
| 0.287 | 0.203 | Cancer | 82,781 | Stroke | 0.246 |
| 0.106 | −0.002 | Cancer | 82,781 | Diabetes | 0.052 |
| −0.050 | −0.180 | Cancer | 82,781 | Obesity | −0.112 |
| −0.069 | −0.196 | Cancer | 82,781 | Asthma | −0.127 |
| 0.057 | −0.067 | Cancer | 82,781 | Depression | −0.002 |
| 0.755 | 0.718 | Arthritis | 82,781 | Cancer | 0.738 |
| n/a | n/a | Arthritis | n/a | Arthritis | 1 |
| 0.914 | 0.888 | Arthritis | 82,781 | Coronary heart disease | 0.902 |
| 0.823 | 0.800 | Arthritis | 82,781 | COPD | 0.812 |
| 0.759 | 0.713 | Arthritis | 82,781 | Stroke | 0.736 |
| 0.635 | 0.520 | Arthritis | 82,781 | Diabetes | 0.577 |
| 0.531 | 0.421 | Arthritis | 82,781 | Obesity | 0.479 |
| 0.422 | 0.315 | Arthritis | 82,781 | Asthma | 0.374 |
| 0.305 | 0.197 | Arthritis | 82,781 | Depression | 0.253 |
| 0.655 | 0.601 | Coronary heart disease | 82,781 | Cancer | 0.629 |
| 0.914 | 0.888 | Coronary heart disease | 82,781 | Arthritis | 0.902 |
| n/a | n/a | Coronary heart disease | n/a | Coronary heart disease | 1 |
| 0.891 | 0.874 | Coronary heart disease | 82,781 | COPD | 0.883 |
| 0.875 | 0.851 | Coronary heart disease | 82,781 | Stroke | 0.863 |
| 0.763 | 0.710 | Coronary heart disease | 82,781 | Diabetes | 0.737 |
| 0.518 | 0.433 | Coronary heart disease | 82,781 | Obesity | 0.477 |
| 0.382 | 0.282 | Coronary heart disease | 82,781 | Asthma | 0.335 |
| 0.223 | 0.117 | Coronary heart disease | 82,781 | Depression | 0.172 |
| 0.362 | 0.297 | COPD | 82,781 | Cancer | 0.332 |
| 0.823 | 0.800 | COPD | 82,781 | Arthritis | 0.812 |
| 0.891 | 0.874 | COPD | 82,781 | Coronary heart disease | 0.883 |
| n/a | n/a | COPD | n/a | COPD | 1 |
| 0.904 | 0.887 | COPD | 82,781 | Stroke | 0.896 |
| 0.803 | 0.738 | COPD | 82,781 | Diabetes | 0.771 |
| 0.719 | 0.666 | COPD | 82,781 | Obesity | 0.694 |
| 0.641 | 0.569 | COPD | 82,781 | Asthma | 0.607 |
| 0.462 | 0.374 | COPD | 82,781 | Depression | 0.420 |
| 0.287 | 0.203 | Stroke | 82,781 | Cancer | 0.246 |
| 0.759 | 0.713 | Stroke | 82,781 | Arthritis | 0.736 |
| 0.875 | 0.851 | Stroke | 82,781 | Coronary heart disease | 0.863 |
| 0.904 | 0.887 | Stroke | 82,781 | COPD | 0.896 |
| n/a | n/a | Stroke | n/a | Stroke | 1 |
| 0.917 | 0.887 | Stroke | 82,781 | Diabetes | 0.902 |
| 0.675 | 0.623 | Stroke | 82,781 | Obesity | 0.649 |
| 0.580 | 0.507 | Stroke | 82,781 | Asthma | 0.545 |
| 0.193 | 0.109 | Stroke | 82,781 | Depression | 0.151 |
| 0.106 | −0.002 | Diabetes | 82,781 | Cancer | 0.052 |
| 0.635 | 0.520 | Diabetes | 82,781 | Arthritis | 0.577 |
| 0.763 | 0.710 | Diabetes | 82,781 | Coronary heart disease | 0.737 |
| 0.803 | 0.738 | Diabetes | 82,781 | COPD | 0.771 |
| 0.917 | 0.887 | Diabetes | 82,781 | Stroke | 0.902 |
| n/a | n/a | Diabetes | n/a | Diabetes | 1 |
| 0.734 | 0.647 | Diabetes | 82,781 | Obesity | 0.691 |
| 0.456 | 0.356 | Diabetes | 82,781 | Asthma | 0.403 |
| 0.105 | 0.010 | Diabetes | 82,781 | Depression | 0.058 |
| −0.050 | −0.180 | Obesity | 82,781 | Cancer | −0.112 |
| 0.531 | 0.421 | Obesity | 82,781 | Arthritis | 0.479 |
| 0.518 | 0.433 | Obesity | 82,781 | Coronary heart disease | 0.477 |
| 0.719 | 0.666 | Obesity | 82,781 | COPD | 0.694 |
| 0.675 | 0.623 | Obesity | 82,781 | Stroke | 0.649 |
| 0.734 | 0.647 | Obesity | 82,781 | Diabetes | 0.691 |
| n/a | n/a | Obesity | n/a | Obesity | 1 |
| 0.686 | 0.592 | Obesity | 82,781 | Asthma | 0.641 |
| 0.459 | 0.350 | Obesity | 82,781 | Depression | 0.407 |
| −0.069 | −0.196 | Asthma | 82,781 | Cancer | −0.127 |
| 0.422 | 0.315 | Asthma | 82,781 | Arthritis | 0.374 |
| 0.382 | 0.282 | Asthma | 82,781 | Coronary heart disease | 0.335 |
| 0.641 | 0.569 | Asthma | 82,781 | COPD | 0.607 |
| 0.580 | 0.507 | Asthma | 82,781 | Stroke | 0.545 |
| 0.456 | 0.356 | Asthma | 82,781 | Diabetes | 0.403 |
| 0.686 | 0.592 | Asthma | 82,781 | Obesity | 0.641 |
| n/a | n/a | Asthma | n/a | Asthma | 1 |
| 0.660 | 0.572 | Asthma | 82,781 | Depression | 0.618 |
| 0.057 | −0.067 | Depression | 82,781 | Cancer | −0.002 |
| 0.305 | 0.197 | Depression | 82,781 | Arthritis | 0.253 |
| 0.223 | 0.117 | Depression | 82,781 | Coronary heart disease | 0.172 |
| 0.462 | 0.374 | Depression | 82,781 | COPD | 0.420 |
| 0.193 | 0.109 | Depression | 82,781 | Stroke | 0.151 |
| 0.105 | 0.010 | Depression | 82,781 | Diabetes | 0.058 |
| 0.459 | 0.350 | Depression | 82,781 | Obesity | 0.407 |
| 0.660 | 0.572 | Depression | 82,781 | Asthma | 0.618 |
| n/a | n/a | Depression | n/a | Depression | 1 |
The correlations of cancer follow the age of the residents. PLACES gives crude prevalence, and across tracts the prevalence of cancer correlates +0.81 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.83)+0.81 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted correlation of the tract prevalence of cancer with the ACS share of residents aged 65 and over, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.79 to 0.83n82,779 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES with the ACS share of residents aged 6565 years of ageEstimanddefinition: the age at which the ACS share of older residents startsWeightsnone (a definition)Populationresidents in the ACS share used as an inputPeriodACS 2019-2023SourceAmerican Community Survey and over, against +0.64 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.66)+0.64 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted correlation of the tract prevalence of arthritis with the ACS share of residents aged 65 and over, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.61 to 0.66n82,779 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES for arthritis, +0.64 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.66)+0.64 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted correlation of the tract prevalence of coronary heart disease with the ACS share of residents aged 65 and over, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.61 to 0.66n82,779 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES for heart disease, +0.23 (95% CI 0.19 to 0.26)+0.23 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted correlation of the tract prevalence of diagnosed diabetes with the ACS share of residents aged 65 and over, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.19 to 0.26n82,779 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES for diabetes and −0.17 (95% CI −0.21 to −0.14)−0.17 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted correlation of the tract prevalence of depression with the ACS share of residents aged 65 and over, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI −0.21 to −0.14n82,779 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES for depression. It correlates 0.00 (95% CI −0.07 to 0.07)0.00 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted correlation of the tract prevalence of cancer with the ADI national percentile, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI −0.07 to 0.07n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES with the ADI. Cancer correlates +0.74 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.75)+0.74 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted Pearson correlation of tract prevalence of cancer and arthritis, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.72 to 0.75n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES with arthritis and +0.63 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.66)+0.63 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted Pearson correlation of tract prevalence of cancer and coronary heart disease, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.60 to 0.66n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES with heart disease, the two other conditions that line up with age, and close to zero with diabetes (+0.05 (95% CI 0.00 to 0.11)+0.05 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted Pearson correlation of tract prevalence of cancer and diagnosed diabetes, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.00 to 0.11n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES) and depression (0.00 (95% CI −0.07 to 0.06)0.00 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted Pearson correlation of tract prevalence of cancer and depression, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI −0.07 to 0.06n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES). Two features of a tract therefore line up with the conditions. One is the age of its residents, which lines up with cancer, arthritis and heart disease. The other is deprivation, taken up in the sections below. Asthma correlates +0.64 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.69)+0.64 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted Pearson correlation of tract prevalence of current asthma and obesity, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.59 to 0.69n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES with obesity. The modeled asthma estimates are set against air pollution in Chapter 5.3, Air pollution, and here asthma is one of nine conditions.
The same pattern can be counted. For the tracts that are high on stroke, the mean number of the other eight conditions that are also high is 4.9 (95% CI 4.8 to 5.0)4.9 other conditions (of eight) that are also highEstimandmean number of the other eight conditions that are also high, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 4.8 to 5.0n19,866 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationtracts high on strokePeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES, and for tracts high on COPD it is 4.9 (95% CI 4.9 to 5.0)4.9 other conditions (of eight) that are also highEstimandmean number of the other eight conditions that are also high, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 4.9 to 5.0n21,048 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationtracts high on COPDPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES (Figure 2). For tracts high on depression it is 3.1 (95% CI 3.0 to 3.3)3.1 other conditions (of eight) that are also highEstimandmean number of the other eight conditions that are also high, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 3.0 to 3.3n20,971 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationtracts high on depressionPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES and for tracts high on cancer 2.5 (95% CI 2.4 to 2.6)2.5 other conditions (of eight) that are also highEstimandmean number of the other eight conditions that are also high, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 2.4 to 2.6n21,087 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationtracts high on cancerPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES. If the conditions were unrelated across tracts, each mean would be 2.02.0 other conditions (of eight) that are also highEstimandexpected number of the other eight conditions that are also high if the conditions were independent across tractsWeightsnone (a benchmark)Populationa tract that is high on one conditionPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES. Weighting tracts by adults instead of counting each once moves each mean by 0.340.34 other conditions (of eight) that are also highEstimandlargest absolute difference, over the nine conditions, between the mean weighted by adults and the mean counting each tract onceWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationtracts high on one conditionPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES conditions or less.
Figure 2
Tracts high on stroke are also high on 4.9 of the other eight conditions on average, against 2.5 for tracts high on cancer and 2.0 if the conditions were independent
Mean number of the other eight conditions that are also high in a tract, for tracts in the highest 25% of tracts on each condition, 2022
Other conditions (of eight) that are also high in the same tract (mean number)
Show data
| condition | conf_high | conf_low | estimate | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthritis | 4.65 | 4.48 | 4.57 | 20,620 |
| Cancer | 2.64 | 2.39 | 2.51 | 21,087 |
| Asthma | 3.91 | 3.55 | 3.73 | 20,589 |
| Coronary heart disease | 4.82 | 4.63 | 4.73 | 21,177 |
| COPD | 4.98 | 4.86 | 4.92 | 21,048 |
| Depression | 3.31 | 2.96 | 3.12 | 20,971 |
| Diabetes | 4.69 | 4.03 | 4.35 | 20,549 |
| Obesity | 4.15 | 3.86 | 3.99 | 20,885 |
| Stroke | 5.04 | 4.77 | 4.90 | 19,866 |
Tracts are high on all nine conditions, or on none, more often than unrelated conditions would give
Figure 3 counts, for each tract, the conditions on which it is high. 34.0% (95% CI 30.7% to 37.1%)34.0% percent of tractsEstimandshare of tracts that are high on none of the nine conditions, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 30.7% to 37.1%n82,781 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES of tracts are high on none of the nine, where unrelated conditions with the same shares of high tracts would leave 7.4%7.4% percent of tractsEstimandshare of tracts expected to be high on none if the nine conditions were independent across tracts (Poisson-binomial with the observed share high on each)Weightsnone (a benchmark)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES. At the other end 892892 tractsEstimandcount of tracts that are high on all nine conditionsWeightsnone (full count)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES tracts, 1.1% (95% CI 0.9% to 1.3%)1.1% percent of tractsEstimandshare of tracts that are high on all nine conditions, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.9% to 1.3%n82,781 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES of the total, are high on all nine, where unrelated conditions would give 0.30.3 tractsEstimandnumber of tracts expected to be high on all nine conditions if they were independent across tracts (Poisson-binomial with the observed share high on each)Weightsnone (a benchmark)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES tracts. Tracts high on 55 conditionsEstimanddefinition: five or more of the nine conditions, a majorityWeightsnone (a definition)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES or more of the nine make up 21.3% (95% CI 19.3% to 23.3%)21.3% percent of tractsEstimandshare of tracts that are high on five or more conditions, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 19.3% to 23.3%n82,781 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES of tracts against 4.9%4.9% percent of tractsEstimandshare of tracts expected to be high on five or more conditions if they were independent across tractsWeightsnone (a benchmark)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES for unrelated conditions. The benchmark is a reference point and not a hypothesis anyone held. It is the distribution that independent draws would give, with each condition's observed share of high tracts. Real tracts are not independent draws, in part because the model fits every condition to the same inputs. Weighted by adults, 38.1%38.1% percent of adultsEstimandshare of adults living in tracts that are high on none of the nine conditionsn82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES of adults live in tracts that are high on none and 17.1%17.1% percent of adultsEstimandshare of adults living in tracts that are high on five or more conditionsn82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES in tracts that are high on 55 conditionsEstimanddefinition: five or more of the nine conditions, a majorityWeightsnone (a definition)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES or more, so large tracts are somewhat less likely to be high on many conditions.
Figure 3
34.0% of tracts are high on none of the nine conditions and 892 tracts are high on all nine, where independent conditions would give 0.3 tracts
Tracts by the number of the nine conditions whose prevalence is in the highest 25% of tracts, observed and expected if the conditions were independent, 82,781 tracts, 2022
- Observed
- If conditions were independent
Number of the nine conditions that are high in the tract
Show data
| conf_high | conf_low | count | n | series | share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37.10 | 30.75 | 0 | 82,781 | Observed | 33.98 |
| 21.61 | 19.41 | 1 | 82,781 | Observed | 20.52 |
| 12.31 | 10.49 | 2 | 82,781 | Observed | 11.37 |
| 7.64 | 6.64 | 3 | 82,781 | Observed | 7.13 |
| 6.23 | 5.26 | 4 | 82,781 | Observed | 5.74 |
| 5.77 | 4.83 | 5 | 82,781 | Observed | 5.30 |
| 6.61 | 5.37 | 6 | 82,781 | Observed | 5.97 |
| 6.03 | 4.69 | 7 | 82,781 | Observed | 5.31 |
| 4.12 | 3.16 | 8 | 82,781 | Observed | 3.61 |
| 1.29 | 0.900 | 9 | 82,781 | Observed | 1.08 |
| n/a | n/a | 0 | n/a | If conditions were independent | 7.44 |
| n/a | n/a | 1 | n/a | If conditions were independent | 22.42 |
| n/a | n/a | 2 | n/a | If conditions were independent | 30.01 |
| n/a | n/a | 3 | n/a | If conditions were independent | 23.43 |
| n/a | n/a | 4 | n/a | If conditions were independent | 11.76 |
| n/a | n/a | 5 | n/a | If conditions were independent | 3.93 |
| n/a | n/a | 6 | n/a | If conditions were independent | 0.880 |
| n/a | n/a | 7 | n/a | If conditions were independent | 0.130 |
| n/a | n/a | 8 | n/a | If conditions were independent | 0.010 |
| n/a | n/a | 9 | n/a | If conditions were independent | 0 |
The cutoff is a choice, and the numbers depend on it. By construction a tract is high on 2.32.3 conditions (of nine)Estimandmean number of high conditions per tract; it equals nine times the share high, so a result of the cutoffn82,781 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES conditions on average at the chapter's cutoff, and ties at the cutoff move the share of tracts that is high on a single condition between 24.0%24.0% percent of tractsEstimandsmallest share of tracts that is high on one condition; tied values fall on one side of the cutoffn82,781 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES and 25.6%25.6% percent of tractsEstimandlargest share of tracts that is high on one conditionn82,781 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES. Figure 4 repeats the count with other cutoffs. With the stricter cutoff of the highest 10%10% percent of tractsEstimanddefinition: a cutoff of the sensitivity check, the highest 10% of tractsWeightsnone (a definition)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES of tracts, 64.9%64.9% percent of tractsEstimandshare of tracts high on none of the nine conditions when a tract is high if it is in the highest 10% of tractsn82,781 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES of tracts are high on none and 1414 tractsEstimandcount of tracts high on all nine conditions when a tract is high if it is in the highest 10% of tractsWeightsnone (full count)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES are high on all nine, against 0.00.0 tractsEstimandnumber of tracts expected to be high on all nine conditions if they were independent, with the highest 10% of tracts counted as highWeightsnone (a benchmark)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES expected for unrelated conditions. With the looser cutoff of the highest 33.3%33.3% percent of tractsEstimanddefinition: a cutoff of the sensitivity check, the highest 33.3% of tractsWeightsnone (a definition)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES the figures are 23.4%23.4% percent of tractsEstimandshare of tracts high on none of the nine conditions when a tract is high if it is in the highest 33.3% of tractsn82,781 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES, 2,6792,679 tractsEstimandcount of tracts high on all nine conditions when a tract is high if it is in the highest 33.3% of tractsWeightsnone (full count)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES and 4.54.5 tractsEstimandnumber of tracts expected to be high on all nine conditions if they were independent, with the highest 33.3% of tracts counted as highWeightsnone (a benchmark)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES. The number of tracts that are high on all nine exceeds the unrelated benchmark under every cutoff, and the share that is high on none depends strongly on the cutoff.
Figure 4
Tracts are high on all nine conditions more often than independent conditions would give under every cutoff, from 14 tracts against 0.0 at the strictest to 2,679 against 4.5 at the loosest
Count of high conditions per tract when a tract is high on a condition if it is in the highest 10%, 20%, 25% or 33.3% of tracts, 82,781 tracts, 2022
| A tract is high on a condition if it is in the | Mean high conditions | Tracts high on none (%) | Tracts high on five or more (%) | Expected if independent (%) | Tracts high on all nine | Expected if independent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highest 10% of tracts | 0.90 | 64.9 | 6.2 | 0.1 | 14 | 0.00 |
| Highest 20% of tracts | 1.80 | 42.7 | 15.8 | 2.0 | 360 | 0.04 |
| Highest 25% of tracts (used in this chapter) | 2.26 | 34.0 | 21.3 | 4.9 | 892 | 0.32 |
| Highest third of tracts | 3.02 | 23.4 | 30.9 | 14.8 | 2,679 | 4.47 |
Show data
| all9 | cutoff | exp9 | ge5 | ind_ge5 | mean | none |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Highest 10% of tracts | 0 | 6.20 | 0.100 | 0.900 | 64.90 |
| 360 | Highest 20% of tracts | 0.040 | 15.80 | 2 | 1.80 | 42.70 |
| 892 | Highest 25% of tracts (used in this chapter) | 0.320 | 21.30 | 4.90 | 2.26 | 34 |
| 2679 | Highest third of tracts | 4.47 | 30.90 | 14.80 | 3.02 | 23.40 |
The count rises across the deprivation index, and the overlap does not strengthen
Figure 5 orders tracts on the ADI and shows the mean count in each tenth. It is 0.5 (95% CI 0.4 to 0.6)0.5 conditions (of nine)Estimandmean number of the nine conditions that are high, population-weighted mean over a tenth of tracts, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.4 to 0.6n8,274 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the least deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentilePeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES in the least deprived tenth and 5.7 (95% CI 5.5 to 5.8)5.7 conditions (of nine)Estimandmean number of the nine conditions that are high, population-weighted mean over a tenth of tracts, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 5.5 to 5.8n8,213 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the most deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentilePeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES in the most deprived, a difference of 5.2 (95% CI 5.0 to 5.4)5.2 conditions (of nine)Estimanddifference between the population-weighted mean count of high conditions in the most and the least deprived tenth of tracts, bootstrap interval over counties (draws shared)Interval95% CI 5.0 to 5.4n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the most deprived tenth of tracts compared with the least deprived tenthPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES, and it rises at every step, with the two largest steps at the deprived end. The share of adults who live in tracts high on 55 conditionsEstimanddefinition: five or more of the nine conditions, a majorityWeightsnone (a definition)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES or more conditions is 0.8% (95% CI 0.3% to 1.6%)0.8% percent of adultsEstimandshare of adults living in tracts that are high on five or more conditions, population-weighted mean over a tenth of tracts, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.3% to 1.6%n8,274 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the least deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentilePeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES in the least deprived tenth and 72.5% (95% CI 69.9% to 75.1%)72.5% percent of adultsEstimandshare of adults living in tracts that are high on five or more conditions, population-weighted mean over a tenth of tracts, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 69.9% to 75.1%n8,213 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the most deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentilePeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES in the most deprived. Part of this gradient is mechanical. The ADI is built from ACS data on income, education, employment and housing, and the PLACES model applies survey responses to each tract's census population using inputs from the same census sources, so conditions and index move together partly by design. The gradient of each condition taken one at a time belongs to Chapter 5.1, Health behaviors and the supply of care, and the count here adds only that the conditions which rise are high in the same tracts.
Figure 5
Weighted by adults, a tract in the most deprived tenth is high on 5.7 of nine conditions on average, against 0.5 in the least deprived tenth
Population-weighted mean number of the nine conditions that are high, by tenth of tracts on the ADI national percentile, 82,781 tracts, 2022
Mean number of high conditions (of nine)
Show data
| conf_high | conf_low | decile | estimate | measure | n_units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.550 | 0.380 | 1 | 0.450 | count | 8,274 |
| 0.700 | 0.550 | 2 | 0.620 | count | 8,118 |
| 1 | 0.780 | 3 | 0.880 | count | 8,511 |
| 1.10 | 0.920 | 4 | 1.01 | count | 8,261 |
| 1.39 | 1.19 | 5 | 1.29 | count | 8,189 |
| 1.83 | 1.60 | 6 | 1.71 | count | 8,318 |
| 2.46 | 2.22 | 7 | 2.34 | count | 8,305 |
| 3.34 | 3.07 | 8 | 3.21 | count | 8,238 |
| 4.49 | 4.21 | 9 | 4.35 | count | 8,354 |
| 5.81 | 5.52 | 10 | 5.66 | count | 8,213 |
| 1.57 | 0.310 | 1 | 0.800 | share | 8,274 |
| 1.62 | 0.850 | 2 | 1.19 | share | 8,118 |
| 3.33 | 2.08 | 3 | 2.67 | share | 8,511 |
| 4.93 | 3.49 | 4 | 4.19 | share | 8,261 |
| 7.79 | 5.88 | 5 | 6.79 | share | 8,189 |
| 12.89 | 10.27 | 6 | 11.53 | share | 8,318 |
| 20.66 | 17.07 | 7 | 18.80 | share | 8,305 |
| 33.81 | 29.22 | 8 | 31.48 | share | 8,238 |
| 51.73 | 46.65 | 9 | 49.11 | share | 8,354 |
| 75.09 | 69.88 | 10 | 72.53 | share | 8,213 |
The conditions do not go together more closely where deprivation is higher. Inside the least deprived tenth the mean correlation among the nine is +0.40 (95% CI 0.37 to 0.44)+0.40 correlation coefficient (mean of the 36 pairs)Estimandmean pairwise correlation among the nine conditions inside one tenth of tracts, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.37 to 0.44n8,274 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the least deprived tenth of tractsPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES, and inside the most deprived tenth it is +0.34 (95% CI 0.32 to 0.36)+0.34 correlation coefficient (mean of the 36 pairs)Estimandmean pairwise correlation among the nine conditions inside one tenth of tracts, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.32 to 0.36n8,213 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the most deprived tenth of tractsPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES, a difference of +0.06 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.11)+0.06 correlation coefficient (mean of the 36 pairs), least deprived tenth minus most deprived tenthEstimandmean pairwise correlation inside the least deprived tenth minus that inside the most deprived tenth, bootstrap interval over counties (draws shared)Interval95% CI 0.03 to 0.11n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the least and the most deprived tenth of tractsPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES with the least deprived tenth higher. Inside the second to the ninth tenth it lies between +0.35+0.35 correlation coefficient (mean of the 36 pairs)Estimandsmallest of the eight mean pairwise correlations inside the second to ninth tenthn82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the second to ninth tenth of tractsPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES and +0.36+0.36 correlation coefficient (mean of the 36 pairs)Estimandlargest of the eight mean pairwise correlations inside the second to ninth tenthn82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the second to ninth tenth of tractsPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES. After the mean of each ADI tenth is subtracted, the average correlation across all tracts is +0.36 (95% CI 0.35 to 0.38)+0.36 correlation coefficient (mean of the 36 pairs)Estimandmean pairwise correlation among the nine conditions after subtracting the mean of each ADI tenth, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.35 to 0.38n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES, against +0.49+0.49 correlation coefficient (mean of the 36 pairs)Estimandmean of the population-weighted Pearson correlations over the 36 pairs of conditions, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.48 to 0.51n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES before. Holding the ADI tenth fixed therefore removes part of the overlap, and a correlation remains in every tenth. The count of high conditions rises with deprivation, while the overlap among the conditions inside a tenth is smaller in the most deprived tenth than in the least deprived.
An approximation of the model's census inputs leaves most of the overlap in place
Part of every correlation among the PLACES estimates in this chapter is built into the estimates. PLACES fits a model to survey responses, using the age, sex, race, ethnicity and education of each respondent, a county measure of poverty, and state and county effects, and applies it to the census population of each tract.[1] Conditions that are modeled from the same inputs move together wherever the inputs move, whatever the residents do. Within a county the model gives tracts different values only through the composition of their residents.
The data cannot take the model apart, but the ACS can approximate its inputs. For each condition, a weighted regression on 88 ACS tract sharesEstimanddefinition: the number of ACS shares in the approximationWeightsnone (a definition)Populationcensus tract shares used to approximate the model's inputsPeriodACS 2019-2023SourceAmerican Community Survey ACS tract shares, their squares and pairwise products, a county poverty rate and state effectsFixed effectsA regression adjustment that gives each group, such as each county, its own baseline. The estimate then rests on differences within groups. reproduces 79%79% percent of the variance of tract prevalenceEstimandsmallest weighted R squared of the nine fits on the ACS shares, county poverty and state effectsn82,578 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rank and every ACS input of the approximationPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES to 90%90% percent of the variance of tract prevalenceEstimandlargest weighted R squared of the nine fits on the ACS shares, county poverty and state effectsn82,578 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rank and every ACS input of the approximationPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES of the variance of tract prevalence, counting the part the state effects carry. The average correlation among the residuals is +0.47 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.48)+0.47 correlation coefficient (mean of the 36 pairs)Estimandmean pairwise correlation among the nine conditions after removing a fit on eight ACS tract shares, the county poverty rate and state effects; the fit is not refitted inside the bootstrap, so the interval conditions on itInterval95% CI 0.46 to 0.48n82,578 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rank and every ACS input of the approximationPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES, against +0.49 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.51)+0.49 correlation coefficient (mean of the 36 pairs)Estimandmean pairwise correlation among the nine conditions on the tracts the approximation uses, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.48 to 0.51n82,578 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rank and every ACS input of the approximationPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES for the conditions themselves on the same tracts and +0.49+0.49 correlation coefficient (mean of the 36 pairs)Estimandmean of the population-weighted Pearson correlations over the 36 pairs of conditions, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.48 to 0.51n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES on all tracts (Figure 6). With county effects in place of state effects and county poverty, the fit reproduces 62%62% percent of the variance of tract prevalence within countiesEstimandsmallest weighted within-county R squared of the nine fits on the ACS shares with county effectsn82,578 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rank and every ACS input of the approximationPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES to 85%85% percent of the variance of tract prevalence within countiesEstimandlargest weighted within-county R squared of the nine fits on the ACS shares with county effectsn82,578 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rank and every ACS input of the approximationPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES of the variance within counties and the average correlation among the residuals is +0.52 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.52)+0.52 correlation coefficient (mean of the 36 pairs)Estimandmean pairwise correlation among the nine conditions after removing a fit on eight ACS tract shares and county effects; the fit is not refitted inside the bootstrap, so the interval conditions on itInterval95% CI 0.51 to 0.52n82,578 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rank and every ACS input of the approximationPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES, higher than the raw value on the same tracts. Gradient-boosted trees fitted to the same inputs, scored on counties they did not see, reproduce 75%75% percent of the variance of tract prevalenceEstimandsmallest weighted out-of-fold R squared of the nine tree fits, folds by countyn82,578 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rank and every ACS input of the approximationPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES to 90%90% percent of the variance of tract prevalenceEstimandlargest weighted out-of-fold R squared of the nine tree fits, folds by countyn82,578 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rank and every ACS input of the approximationPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES of the variance and leave a mean correlation of +0.45 (95% CI 0.44 to 0.47)+0.45 correlation coefficient (mean of the 36 pairs)Estimandmean pairwise correlation among the nine conditions after removing a gradient-boosted-trees fit on the ACS tract shares, the county poverty rate and the state; the fit is not refitted inside the bootstrap, so the interval conditions on itInterval95% CI 0.44 to 0.47n82,578 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rank and every ACS input of the approximationPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES. Holding the state fixed gives +0.48 (95% CI 0.47 to 0.50)+0.48 correlation coefficient (mean of the 36 pairs)Estimandmean pairwise correlation among the nine conditions after subtracting the mean of each state; the fit is not refitted inside the bootstrap, so the interval conditions on itInterval95% CI 0.47 to 0.50n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES and holding the county fixed gives +0.43 (95% CI 0.42 to 0.43)+0.43 correlation coefficient (mean of the 36 pairs)Estimandmean pairwise correlation among the nine conditions after subtracting the mean of each county; the fit is not refitted inside the bootstrap, so the interval conditions on itInterval95% CI 0.42 to 0.43n82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023SourceCDC PLACES.
Figure 6
An approximation of the model's census inputs leaves the average correlation among the nine conditions at +0.47, against +0.49 in the raw data
Mean of the 36 pairwise population-weighted correlations among the nine conditions across 82,781 tracts, 2022, under seven comparisons
- Compared within groups of tracts
- After approximating the model's inputs
Show data
| conf_high | conf_low | estimate | group | n | stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.511 | 0.477 | 0.495 | Compared within groups of tracts | 82,781 | All tracts |
| 0.498 | 0.471 | 0.484 | Compared within groups of tracts | 82,781 | Within states |
| 0.435 | 0.418 | 0.427 | Compared within groups of tracts | 82,781 | Within counties |
| 0.377 | 0.346 | 0.361 | Compared within groups of tracts | 82,781 | Within tenths of the ADI |
| 0.476 | 0.460 | 0.468 | After approximating the model's inputs | 82,578 | Census shares, county poverty and state effects removed |
| 0.521 | 0.511 | 0.516 | After approximating the model's inputs | 82,578 | Census shares removed within counties |
| 0.469 | 0.441 | 0.455 | After approximating the model's inputs | 82,578 | Flexible fit (trees) on the same inputs and state |
These numbers show that the inputs which can be measured here do not remove the overlap. They do not show that the overlap is real. The fits approximate the model and are not the model. The ACS file has no sex shares and no age groups beyond the shares under 1818 years of ageEstimanddefinition: the age below which the ACS share of children is countedWeightsnone (a definition)Populationresidents in the ACS share used as an inputPeriodACS 2019-2023SourceAmerican Community Survey and at 6565 years of ageEstimanddefinition: the age at which the ACS share of older residents startsWeightsnone (a definition)Populationresidents in the ACS share used as an inputPeriodACS 2019-2023SourceAmerican Community Survey and over, the model works from individual respondents and not tract shares, and its county and state effects are fitted to each condition separately from the same survey. Whatever the conditions share and the fit misses, such as the age mix inside the older group, stays in the residuals and keeps them correlated. What the comparison supports is narrower. The shared part of the PLACES estimates is not a simple function of the census shares that were available, and the data cannot say how much of it comes from the model's other inputs and how much from the neighborhoods.
Where tracts are high on many conditions
Tracts that are high on many conditions are not spread evenly. Of the variance of the count, 22.4%22.4% percent of the variance of the tract count of high conditionsEstimandpopulation-weighted share of the variance of the count of high conditions that lies between states; a decomposition of every tract, so it has no sampling intervaln82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES lies between states and 29.8%29.8% percent of the variance of the tract count of high conditionsEstimandpopulation-weighted share of the variance of the count of high conditions that lies between counties within states; a decomposition of every tract, so it has no sampling intervaln82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES between counties within states, a total of 52.2%52.2% percent of the variance of the tract count of high conditionsEstimandpopulation-weighted share of the variance of the count of high conditions that lies between counties, including between states; a decomposition of every tractn82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES between counties, and 47.8%47.8% percent of the variance of the tract count of high conditionsEstimandpopulation-weighted share of the variance of the count of high conditions that lies between tracts within counties; a decomposition of every tract, so it has no sampling intervaln82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES lies between tracts within counties. The within-county part reflects the composition of residents, because the model gives tracts in one county different values only through that composition. Figure 7 maps, for each county, the share of adults who live in tracts that are high on 55 conditionsEstimanddefinition: five or more of the nine conditions, a majorityWeightsnone (a definition)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES or more conditions. In 1,2291,229 countiesEstimandcount of counties with a population-weighted tract share of 50% or moreWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationcounties where at least half of adults live in tracts that are high on five or more conditionsPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES of the 3,1283,128 countiesEstimandcount of counties drawn with a value (Connecticut as its eight legacy counties)Weightsnone (full count)Populationcounties and county equivalents on the map with at least one tract in the samplePeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES counties with a value, 50%50% percent of adultsEstimanddefinition: a county where half of adults or more live in such tractsWeightsnone (a definition)Populationcounties where the share of adults in tracts high on five or more conditions reaches this levelPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES or more of adults do. By Census region the share is 25.8%25.8% percent of adultsEstimandshare of adults living in tracts that are high on five or more conditionsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the South Census region living in the analysis tractsPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES of adults in the South, 20.2%20.2% percent of adultsEstimandshare of adults living in tracts that are high on five or more conditionsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the Midwest Census region living in the analysis tractsPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES in the Midwest, 8.5%8.5% percent of adultsEstimandshare of adults living in tracts that are high on five or more conditionsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the Northeast Census region living in the analysis tractsPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES in the Northeast and 7.0%7.0% percent of adultsEstimandshare of adults living in tracts that are high on five or more conditionsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the West Census region living in the analysis tractsPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES in the West, against 17.1%17.1% percent of adultsEstimandshare of adults living in tracts that are high on five or more conditionsn82,781 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in census tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES nationally, and in West Virginia it is 81.7%81.7% percent of adultsEstimandshare of adults living in tracts that are high on five or more conditionsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in West Virginia living in the analysis tractsPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES. The counties with large shares cluster in the South and in parts of the Midwest.
Figure 7
In 1,229 counties, 50% or more of adults live in tracts that are high on 5 or more conditions, and 25.8% of adults in the South do, against 7.0% in the West
Share of adults living in tracts that are high on 5 or more of the nine conditions, by county, population-weighted, 2022
Loading county values
Adults in tracts high on five or more conditions (percent of adults)
Fewer adults in such tractsMore adults in such tracts
No data (3,143 counties)
Select a class to show only those places.
Hover or tap a county for its value, or search by name. Zoom with the buttons on the map, then drag to move it.
Life expectancy is shorter in tracts that are high on more conditions
Death records give a check that does not depend on the PLACES model. USALEEPUSALEEPThe U.S. Small-area Life Expectancy Estimates Project, a National Center for Health Statistics release of life expectancy at birth for most census tracts. It covers deaths from 2010 to 2015 only and has not been updated. life expectancy at birthLife expectancy at birthThe average number of years a newborn would live if death rates at every age stayed as they were in the period measured. It summarizes the death rates of a period and is not a forecast for any child., built from deaths in 2010 to 2015, is 80.2 (95% CI 80.0 to 80.4)80.2 years of life expectancy at birthEstimandpopulation-weighted mean tract life expectancy, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 80.0 to 80.4n26,431 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts that are high on 0 of the nine conditions, USALEEP tracts in the sample, institutional tracts droppedPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); PLACES 2024 releaseSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years in tracts that are high on none of the nine and 74.1 (95% CI 73.9 to 74.3)74.1 years of life expectancy at birthEstimandpopulation-weighted mean tract life expectancy, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 73.9 to 74.3n2,898 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts that are high on 8 of the nine conditions, USALEEP tracts in the sample, institutional tracts droppedPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); PLACES 2024 releaseSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years in tracts that are high on eight, a gap of 6.1 (95% CI 5.8 to 6.3)6.1 years of life expectancy at birthEstimanddifference in population-weighted mean tract life expectancy, bootstrap interval over counties (draws shared)Interval95% CI 5.8 to 6.3n29,329 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts that are high on none of the nine conditions compared with tracts that are high on eightPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); PLACES 2024 releaseSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years (Figure 8). In tracts that are high on all nine it is 75.2 (95% CI 74.9 to 75.4)75.2 years of life expectancy at birthEstimandpopulation-weighted mean tract life expectancy, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 74.9 to 75.4n873 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts that are high on 9 of the nine conditions, USALEEP tracts in the sample, institutional tracts droppedPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); PLACES 2024 releaseSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years, 1.0 (95% CI 0.8 to 1.3)1.0 years of life expectancy at birthEstimanddifference in population-weighted mean tract life expectancy, bootstrap interval over counties (draws shared)Interval95% CI 0.8 to 1.3n3,771 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts high on all nine conditions compared with tracts high on eightPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); PLACES 2024 releaseSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years above tracts that are high on eight, and the data here do not say why. Those tracts differ in composition: the share of residents aged 6565 years of ageEstimanddefinition: the age at which the ACS share of older residents startsWeightsnone (a definition)Populationresidents in the ACS share used as an inputPeriodACS 2019-2023SourceAmerican Community Survey and over is 22.6% (95% CI 22.3% to 22.9%)22.6% percent of residents aged 65 and overEstimandpopulation-weighted mean of the ACS share of residents aged 65 and over, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 22.3% to 22.9%n873 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts that are high on 9 of the nine conditions, USALEEP tracts in the samplePeriodACS 2019-2023SourceAmerican Community Survey in tracts high on all nine against 18.9% (95% CI 18.6% to 19.2%)18.9% percent of residents aged 65 and overEstimandpopulation-weighted mean of the ACS share of residents aged 65 and over, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 18.6% to 19.2%n2,898 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts that are high on 8 of the nine conditions, USALEEP tracts in the samplePeriodACS 2019-2023SourceAmerican Community Survey at eight, and the Black alone share is 2.7% (95% CI 2.2% to 3.1%)2.7% percent of residents Black aloneEstimandpopulation-weighted mean of the ACS share of residents Black alone, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 2.2% to 3.1%n873 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts that are high on 9 of the nine conditions, USALEEP tracts in the samplePeriodACS 2019-2023SourceAmerican Community Survey against 14.9% (95% CI 12.9% to 16.9%)14.9% percent of residents Black aloneEstimandpopulation-weighted mean of the ACS share of residents Black alone, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 12.9% to 16.9%n2,898 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts that are high on 8 of the nine conditions, USALEEP tracts in the samplePeriodACS 2019-2023SourceAmerican Community Survey. Across 77,93477,934 tractsEstimandcount of tractsWeightsnone (full count)Populationtracts in the sample with a USALEEP life expectancy estimate that is not institutionalPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); PLACES 2024 releaseSourceUSALEEP life expectancy tracts the count correlates −0.48 (95% CI −0.49 to −0.46)−0.48 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted correlation of the count of high conditions with tract life expectancy, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI −0.49 to −0.46n77,934 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of USALEEP tracts in the samplePerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); PLACES 2024 releaseSourceUSALEEP life expectancy with life expectancy, and −0.25 (95% CI −0.27 to −0.22)−0.25 correlation coefficientEstimandpopulation-weighted correlation of the count of high conditions with tract life expectancy minus the county mean, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI −0.27 to −0.22n77,720 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of USALEEP tracts in counties with at least two such tractsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); PLACES 2024 releaseSourceUSALEEP life expectancy once each tract is compared with the mean of its county. Within a county, tracts that are high on seven conditions differ from the county mean by −1.9 (95% CI −2.2 to −1.7)−1.9 years of life expectancy at birth, relative to the mean of the tract's countyEstimandpopulation-weighted mean difference between tract life expectancy and the population-weighted mean of its county, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI −2.2 to −1.7n4,219 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts that are high on 7 of the nine conditions, in counties with at least two USALEEP tractsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); PLACES 2024 releaseSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years, against +0.6 (95% CI 0.5 to 0.7)+0.6 years of life expectancy at birth, relative to the mean of the tract's countyEstimandpopulation-weighted mean difference between tract life expectancy and the population-weighted mean of its county, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.5 to 0.7n26,417 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts that are high on 0 of the nine conditions, in counties with at least two USALEEP tractsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); PLACES 2024 releaseSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years for tracts that are high on none. Within a county the count varies only through the composition of tract residents, which also moves life expectancy, so this comparison does not isolate the conditions. Life expectancy at birth is built from death rates at each age, so the age mix of a tract does not move it the way it moves crude prevalence, which makes this a check on whether the count reflects more than age. The two sources cover different years, 2010 to 2015 and 2022, and a correlation between them does not show that the conditions shorten lives.
Figure 8
Life expectancy at birth is 6.1 years shorter in tracts that are high on eight conditions than in tracts that are high on none
Population-weighted mean tract life expectancy at birth by number of high conditions, 77,934 tracts, deaths in 2010 to 2015, institutional tracts dropped
Show data
| conf_high | conf_low | count | estimate | measure | n_units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80.37 | 79.98 | 0 | 80.18 | level | 26,431 |
| 80 | 79.64 | 1 | 79.82 | level | 15,948 |
| 78.50 | 78.18 | 2 | 78.33 | level | 8,632 |
| 78.19 | 77.78 | 3 | 77.97 | level | 5,599 |
| 77.32 | 76.79 | 4 | 77.06 | level | 4,541 |
| 76.72 | 76.18 | 5 | 76.45 | level | 4,162 |
| 76.38 | 75.96 | 6 | 76.16 | level | 4,602 |
| 74.84 | 74.35 | 7 | 74.59 | level | 4,248 |
| 74.30 | 73.94 | 8 | 74.12 | level | 2,898 |
| 75.41 | 74.93 | 9 | 75.17 | level | 873 |
| 0.660 | 0.460 | 0 | 0.560 | dev | 26,417 |
| 0.800 | 0.610 | 1 | 0.700 | dev | 15,927 |
| −0.230 | −0.480 | 2 | −0.350 | dev | 8,612 |
| −0.180 | −0.560 | 3 | −0.360 | dev | 5,567 |
| −0.770 | −1.25 | 4 | −1 | dev | 4,511 |
| −1.02 | −1.50 | 5 | −1.26 | dev | 4,135 |
| −0.980 | −1.29 | 6 | −1.14 | dev | 4,572 |
| −1.70 | −2.16 | 7 | −1.94 | dev | 4,219 |
| −1.60 | −2 | 8 | −1.80 | dev | 2,889 |
| −0.290 | −0.640 | 9 | −0.470 | dev | 871 |
What a randomized offer to move shows about two of the conditions
What these data cannot show
A count of high conditions describes a tract and not a person. A correlation across places can differ widely in size from the correlation among the people who live in them,[5] so the overlap here cannot be read as people carrying several conditions at once, and no figure in this chapter says how many conditions an adult has. Drawing that conclusion from place data is ecological inferenceEcological inferenceDrawing conclusions about individuals from data about places or groups. A pattern across counties need not hold for the people inside them.. The count of conditions per person comes from surveys that ask each adult, and Chapter 5.2, Health behaviors, person by person uses one for behaviors.
The PLACES values are modeled estimates, the tract file has no intervals, and the bands in this chapter describe the sampling of counties and not the model's own uncertainty. CDC advises against using the estimates to rank the overall health of an area or to track change at the local level, and this chapter does neither.[6] It does compare conditions with each other and with the ADI, and every such comparison carries the shared inputs described above. The approximations show that measured census shares do not remove the overlap, but they cannot separate what the model builds in from what the neighborhoods contribute. The staged tract file holds crude prevalence only, so age is part of every pattern, most visibly for cancer, arthritis and heart disease.
High is relative. A tract in the highest 25%25% percent of tractsEstimanddefinition: a tract is high on a condition when its prevalence is in the highest 25% of tracts, ties at their mean rankWeightsnone (a definition)Populationcensus tracts with an estimate for all nine conditions and an ADI rankPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES of tracts for a condition is high compared with other tracts and not high by any clinical standard, and the cutoff moves every count, as the table shows. High blood pressure is left out, and outside Florida its mean correlation with the nine conditions is +0.65 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.67)+0.65 correlation coefficient (mean over the nine conditions)Estimandmean of the correlations of high blood pressure with the nine conditions, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 0.64 to 0.67n77,544 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in tracts outside Florida with all ten estimatesPeriodBRFSS 2021 and 2022 (PLACES 2024 release)SourceCDC PLACES, against +0.51+0.51 correlation coefficient (mean of the 36 pairs)Estimandmean pairwise correlation among the nine conditions on the same tractsn77,544 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults living in tracts outside Florida with all ten estimatesPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES among the nine on the same tracts, so it follows the same shared pattern. Counties are the clusters of the bootstrapBootstrap intervalA range for an estimate found by recomputing it on many random resamples of the data and reading the range from the results. It shows how much the estimate would vary from sample to sample., 3,1293,129 countiesEstimandnumber of bootstrap clustersWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties (Connecticut planning regions) with a tract in the samplePeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES of them, with Connecticut's planning regions standing in for its counties, while the map draws Connecticut as its eight legacy counties. The map has 1515 countiesEstimandcount of counties drawn grayWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties on the map sprite with no tract in the samplePeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES gray counties with no tract in the sample, and 990990 countiesEstimandcount of counties with fewer tracts in the sample than the definition above, where the share moves in large stepsWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties on the mapPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES counties have fewer than 55 tractsEstimanddefinition: a county with fewer tracts than this has a share that moves in large stepsWeightsnone (a definition)Populationcounties on the mapPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES tracts, so their shares move in large steps. Puerto Rico is not covered by PLACES and is not drawn.
The conditions are measured once, in 2022, so the data say nothing about which condition comes first, whether tracts move into or out of the high group, or whether living in a tract changes any of the prevalences. The ADI describes 2019 to 2023 and the life expectancy check describes 2010 to 2015, so the sources do not describe one moment.
Data sources
- CDC PLACESCDC PLACES 2024 release, census tracts, crude prevalence among adults of nine conditions (BRFSS 2022)Years: 2024 release (tracts); 2025 release (ZCTAs, 2023 data year) · Weights: adult population of the tract · License: Public domain (CDC, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services)
- Area Deprivation IndexNeighborhood Atlas Area Deprivation Index, 2023, national percentileYears: 2023 release (version 4.0.1; built on ACS 2019-2023) · Weights: adult population of the tract · License: Free for non-commercial use; cite the Neighborhood Atlas and Kind and Buckingham
- American Community SurveyACS 2019-2023 tract shares used to approximate the model's inputsYears: 2019-2023 (5-year) · Weights: adult population of the tract · License: Public domain (U.S. Census Bureau)
- USALEEP life expectancyNCHS small-area life expectancy at birth, 2010-2015, 2020 tractsYears: 2010-2015 · Weights: ACS 2019-2023 tract population · License: Public domain (NCHS, CDC)
- Published estimates from cited studiesEstimates quoted in the causal box (Ludwig and coauthors 2011)Years: as reported in each study · Weights: as reported in the study · License: Quoted from published research for commentary
Methods
The chapter compares modeled prevalences of nine chronic conditions across census tracts, from the CDC PLACES 2024 release, with correlations, means and shares of adults weighted by the adult population of each tract. A tract is high on a condition when its prevalence is in the highest 25% of tracts, and the count of high conditions describes tracts and not people. The estimates come from a model that fits every condition to shared inputs, so part of the correlation among conditions is built in; the adjustments here approximate those inputs from census data and are not the model. Life expectancy covers deaths in 2010 to 2015, a different period from the PLACES estimates.
Which tracts and conditions are compared
The tract file of CDC PLACES (2024 release) gives one modeled prevalence per condition per tract. The chapter uses nine health outcome measures that cover all adults and have an estimate in every state: arthritis, cancer (non-skin) or melanoma, current asthma, coronary heart disease, COPD, depression, diagnosed diabetes, obesity and stroke.
The sample is the tracts with all nine conditions and an ADI rank. The approximations of the model's inputs use the tracts with every ACS input, which leaves out the tracts of the District of Columbia and a few others.
Figure explained here: Figure 1
What counts as high on a condition
A tract is high on a condition when its prevalence is in the highest 25% of tracts, with tied values at their mean rank, and the count is the number of conditions on which a tract is high; it describes tracts and not people.
The benchmark for independent conditions is a Poisson-binomial distribution with each condition's observed share of high tracts.
How tracts are weighted and where life expectancy comes from
Correlations, means and shares of adults are weighted by the tract's adult population; counts and shares of tracts count each tract once.
Life expectancy is the USALEEP estimate for 2010 to 2015 on 2020 tracts, weighted by ACS 2019-2023 tract population.
How the model's inputs are approximated
The adjustments for the model's inputs are weighted least-squares fits of each condition on eight ACS tract shares with squares and pairwise products, with state effects and a county poverty rate (or county effects), and a gradient-boosted-trees fit with folds by county; they are fitted once and not refitted inside the bootstrap, so their intervals condition on the fit.
They approximate the PLACES model, which uses individual age, sex, race, ethnicity and education, county poverty, and county and state effects.
Figure explained here: Figure 6
How uncertainty is measured
The variance split of the count is a weighted decomposition of every tract and has no interval.
Intervals are 95% percentile intervals from a bootstrap that draws whole counties with replacement (3,129 clusters; 2,000 replicates, seed 12345), with the same draws for every statistic, so a difference has an interval from shared draws.
Figure explained here: Figure 7
References
- Greenlund, Kurt J.; Lu, Hua; Wang, Yan; Matthews, Kevin A.; LeClercq, Jennifer M.; Lee, Benjamin; Carlson, Susan A. (2022). PLACES: Local Data for Better Health. Preventing Chronic Disease 19: 210459. doi:10.5888/pcd19.210459
- Ward, Brian W.; Schiller, Jeannine S. (2013). Prevalence of Multiple Chronic Conditions Among US Adults: Estimates From the National Health Interview Survey, 2010. Preventing Chronic Disease 10: 120203. doi:10.5888/pcd10.120203
- Kind, Amy J. H.; Buckingham, William R. (2018). Making Neighborhood-Disadvantage Metrics Accessible: The Neighborhood Atlas. New England Journal of Medicine 378(26): 2456-2458. doi:10.1056/NEJMp1802313
- Ludwig, Jens; Sanbonmatsu, Lisa; Gennetian, Lisa; Adam, Emma; Duncan, Greg J.; Katz, Lawrence F.; Kessler, Ronald C.; Kling, Jeffrey R.; Lindau, Stacy Tessler; Whitaker, Robert C.; McDade, Thomas W. (2011). Neighborhoods, Obesity, and Diabetes: A Randomized Social Experiment. New England Journal of Medicine 365(16): 1509-1519. doi:10.1056/NEJMsa1103216
- Robinson, W. S. (1950). Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals. American Sociological Review 15(3): 351-357. doi:10.2307/2087176
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2024). PLACES Frequently Asked Questions: Using the Data. CDC PLACES website, page last reviewed August 29, 2024. www.cdc.gov/places/faqs/using-data/index.html
How to cite
@misc{singh2026multiplechronicconditions,
author = {Singh, Vishal},
title = {Multiple chronic conditions},
year = {2026},
url = {https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/multiple-chronic-conditions},
note = {In ZIP Code Destiny. Published 9 October 2026.}
}