Chapter 4.1 · The toll booth

College access, price and earnings

A decade after entry, the median former student who received federal aid earned $28,330 at the median for-profit college and $42,014 at the median public college, for students who entered in 2009 to 2011.

Author: Vishal Singh
Affiliation: NYU Stern
Published: 9 October 2026

A decade after entering, the median former student who received federal aid earned $28,330 at the median for-profit college and $42,014 at the median public college. These students entered in 2009 to 2010 and 2010 to 2011, and their earnings were observed in 2020 and 2021 and are stated in 2022 dollars. The median college is the one in the middle when the colleges of a sector are lined up by what their former students earn. Its own value is also a median, the earnings of the former student in the middle at that college.

For-profit colleges have the lowest median earnings

The private nonprofit median is $53,848, above both. The for-profit median is $13,685 (95% CI $12,287 to $15,220) below the public median, for colleges in the states and the District of Columbia with a published earnings value. The unit here is the institution, and each figure is the middle value across the colleges of a sector.

A median of colleges is not a median of students. Each college counts once, so a small college weighs as much as a large one. Weighting each college by its undergraduates, which counts a large college in proportion to its students, gives a public minus for-profit gap of $10,924 (95% CI $7,972 to $12,851). For-profit colleges also run more short programs, so a comparison of all colleges could reflect the mix of programs. The chapter therefore repeats the comparison among four-year colleges alone and among two-year and shorter programs alone, and the order of the sectors holds in each of these cuts.

Figure 1

At the median for-profit college, former students' median earnings a decade after entry were $28,330, against $42,014 at the median public college and $53,848 at the median private nonprofit college

Distribution across colleges of the median earnings of former students who received federal aid, a decade after entry (thousands of 2022 dollars), by sector; entering classes of 2009 to 2010 and 2010 to 2011

Median earnings of former students a decade after entry (thousands of 2022 dollars)

Show data

Data for At the median for-profit college, former students' median earnings a decade after entry were $28,330, against $42,014 at the median public college and $53,848 at the median private nonprofit college, All colleges, each counted once
density	earnings	scope	sector	weighting
0	0	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	1	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	2	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	3	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	4	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	5	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	6	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	7	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	8	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	9	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	10	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
1	11	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
1	12	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	13	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
3	14	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
4	15	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
5	16	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
6	17	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
8	18	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
10	19	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
13	20	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
17	21	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
21	22	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
27	23	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
35	24	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
49	25	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
71	26	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
104	27	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
152	28	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
217	29	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
297	30	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
389	31	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
490	32	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
594	33	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
695	34	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
788	35	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
870	36	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
935	37	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
979	38	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
1000	39	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
996	40	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
970	41	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
925	42	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
868	43	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
805	44	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
741	45	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
681	46	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
625	47	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
573	48	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
524	49	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
477	50	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
433	51	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
393	52	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
360	53	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
333	54	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
310	55	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
289	56	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
266	57	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
242	58	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
218	59	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
196	60	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
178	61	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
162	62	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
148	63	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
132	64	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
117	65	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
102	66	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
90	67	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
80	68	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
73	69	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
68	70	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
64	71	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
60	72	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
57	73	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
53	74	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
48	75	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
44	76	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
40	77	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
36	78	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
33	79	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
31	80	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
30	81	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
28	82	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
25	83	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
22	84	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
19	85	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
17	86	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
17	87	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
17	88	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
19	89	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
20	90	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
20	91	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
20	92	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
18	93	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
16	94	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
13	95	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
11	96	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
8	97	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
7	98	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
5	99	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
5	100	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
5	101	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
4	102	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
4	103	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
3	104	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	105	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	106	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	107	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	108	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	109	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	110	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	111	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	112	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	113	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	114	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	115	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	116	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
2	117	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
1	118	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
1	119	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	120	All colleges	Public	Each college counted once
0	0	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	1	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	2	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	3	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	4	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	5	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	6	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	7	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	8	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	9	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	10	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	11	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
1	12	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
3	13	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
6	14	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
11	15	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
17	16	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
26	17	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
37	18	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
49	19	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
63	20	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
78	21	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
93	22	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
108	23	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
121	24	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
132	25	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
143	26	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
155	27	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
170	28	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
192	29	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
219	30	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
252	31	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
289	32	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
328	33	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
368	34	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
407	35	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
445	36	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
484	37	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
524	38	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
565	39	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
607	40	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
649	41	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
689	42	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
729	43	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
771	44	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
816	45	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
862	46	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
903	47	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
934	48	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
954	49	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
968	50	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
980	51	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
992	52	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
1000	53	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
999	54	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
985	55	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
960	56	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
930	57	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
896	58	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
856	59	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
808	60	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
752	61	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
690	62	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
629	63	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
572	64	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
523	65	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
484	66	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
455	67	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
434	68	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
417	69	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
402	70	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
385	71	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
366	72	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
349	73	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
333	74	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
320	75	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
306	76	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
289	77	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
268	78	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
243	79	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
219	80	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
199	81	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
184	82	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
175	83	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
169	84	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
163	85	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
157	86	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
150	87	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
143	88	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
134	89	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
122	90	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
108	91	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
92	92	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
77	93	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
62	94	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
51	95	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
45	96	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
42	97	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
44	98	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
48	99	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
54	100	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
59	101	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
61	102	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
59	103	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
54	104	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
47	105	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
39	106	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
33	107	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
29	108	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
27	109	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
25	110	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
23	111	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
20	112	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
16	113	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
12	114	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
10	115	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
8	116	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
8	117	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
8	118	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
10	119	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
12	120	All colleges	Private nonprofit	Each college counted once
0	0	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
0	1	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
0	2	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
0	3	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
1	4	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
2	5	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
4	6	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
7	7	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
11	8	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
18	9	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
29	10	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
46	11	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
73	12	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
114	13	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
170	14	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
242	15	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
324	16	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
412	17	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
502	18	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
593	19	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
686	20	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
779	21	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
866	22	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
936	23	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
982	24	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
1000	25	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
992	26	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
963	27	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
921	28	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
872	29	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
816	30	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
756	31	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
691	32	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
626	33	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
566	34	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
516	35	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
476	36	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
443	37	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
414	38	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
388	39	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
360	40	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
331	41	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
299	42	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
265	43	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
232	44	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
202	45	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
177	46	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
156	47	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
141	48	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
130	49	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
122	50	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
114	51	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
105	52	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
95	53	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
83	54	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
72	55	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
63	56	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
59	57	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
58	58	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
58	59	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
60	60	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
60	61	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
59	62	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
56	63	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
52	64	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
48	65	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
45	66	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
43	67	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
40	68	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
37	69	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
32	70	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
27	71	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
23	72	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
20	73	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
18	74	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
18	75	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
18	76	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
19	77	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
20	78	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
22	79	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
21	80	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
20	81	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
17	82	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
14	83	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
12	84	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
11	85	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
11	86	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
10	87	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
10	88	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
9	89	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
8	90	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
7	91	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
8	92	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
8	93	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
7	94	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
7	95	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
6	96	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
5	97	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
5	98	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
5	99	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
5	100	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
6	101	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
7	102	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
9	103	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
10	104	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
11	105	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
10	106	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
9	107	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
7	108	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
5	109	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
4	110	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
3	111	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
3	112	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
3	113	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
3	114	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
3	115	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
3	116	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
2	117	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
1	118	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
1	119	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once
0	120	All colleges	For-profit	Each college counted once

Note: Earnings are the median for students who received federal aid and were working and not enrolled a decade after entry. They are in 2022 dollars, and the Scorecard adds noise to them and withholds them for small groups, so a college with no published value is missing, never zero. Densities use one smoothing bandwidth for every ridge and run from zero to a ceiling; a few colleges above the ceiling are outside the plot.Note: Colleges are institutions identified by a 6-digit OPE ID. Branch campuses repeat their parent's earnings, so one row per OPE ID is used, and 5,000 institutions are in the file in the 50 states and DC. Earnings are published for 3,963 of them, and the share with no value is 4.7% of public, 26.5% of private nonprofit and 33.2% of for-profit colleges.Note: The medians describe colleges and the students who received federal aid, and they mix what a college does with who enrolls and where it sits.Source: College Scorecard, most recent cohorts, May 2025 release (earnings of the 2009-2011 entering classes, 2022 dollars); unweighted unless the view says weighted by undergraduate enrollment

Step 1
The for-profit ridge sits left of the public and private nonprofit ridges, and the private nonprofit ridge reaches furthest right. Each ridge is a smoothed density of the college medians in one sector, scaled to its own peak, so its height shows shape and not the number of colleges. In this view each college counts once.
Step 2
This view counts each college in proportion to its undergraduates. The ridges shift right at all three sectors, and the for-profit ridge still sits furthest left.
Step 3
This view keeps four-year colleges alone. The for-profit ridge is still left of the public ridge, and the public median is $10,738 above the for-profit median, so the sector gap is not only a difference in the mix of programs.
Step 4
This view keeps two-year and shorter programs alone. The for-profit ridge is again left of the public ridge, and the public median is $11,884 above the for-profit median. Values in Table 1.

How we know

The earnings come from the College Scorecard, which covers institutions that take part in federal student aid programs. It reports the median earnings of former students who received federal aid and were working and not enrolled a decade after entry. Branch campuses repeat their parent institution's earnings, so the chapter counts each institution once, and 3,963 institutions in the states and the District of Columbia have a published value. The Scorecard adds noise to the values it publishes. It withholds earnings when the group of aided students is small or the value fails its checks, and a withheld value is missing and not zero. No value is published for 4.7% of public colleges, 26.5% of private nonprofit colleges and 33.2% of for-profit colleges. If the colleges without a value earn systematically more or less than those with one, the sector medians move. The intervals come from a bootstrap that redraws whole states, so they describe how much an estimate varies from state to state. The figures describe aided students who entered in 2009 to 2011, not all students and not those entering now. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.

The sector gap mixes who enrolls with what colleges do

The sectors differ in who enrolls. The median share of undergraduates who received a Pell Grant, a federal grant for students with financial need, was 52.5% at for-profit colleges and 30.4% at public colleges in academic year 2021 to 2022. Deming, Goldin and Katz compared beginning students at for-profit colleges with comparable students at other colleges in a national survey, adjusting for observed characteristics. They found lower earnings after entry and higher loan default rates among the for-profit students.[1] The Scorecard figures point the same way a decade after entry. They do not adjust for who enrolls, so they cannot separate what a college does from whom it enrolls.

Cost moves with earnings. Across the colleges in the chapter's plot of cost against earnings, those that cost more have former students who earn more. One corner of the plot is different. It is the corner of colleges that cost more than the median cost of attendance and have median earnings at or below the median earnings of the plotted colleges. That corner holds 56% (95% CI 48% to 62%) of the plotted for-profit colleges. The cost of attendance is published for academic-year institutions only, so many short for-profit programs are not plotted, and the share describes the plotted colleges. The colleges in that corner enroll more students from low-income families than the other three quadrants. Among four-year colleges, those in the corner graduate a smaller share of their students than colleges that cost more than the median and earn more. These are comparisons across colleges, and they do not show that a student who enrolls in one of these colleges earns less than the student would have earned elsewhere.

Figure 2

Former students of costlier colleges tend to earn more, a correlation of +0.63, but 56% of plotted for-profit colleges cost more than the median and have median earnings at or below it

Median earnings a decade after entry (2022 dollars) against the average annual cost of attendance (academic year 2021 to 2022), one dot per college, dot area is undergraduate enrollment

Loading data

Dots rise from the lower left to the upper right, and the lower-right quadrant holds the colleges that cost more than the median and earn the median or less. Each dot is a college with a published cost of attendance and median earnings, sized by undergraduate enrollment and coloured by sector, and the two lines are the medians across the plotted colleges. Cost is for academic year 2021 to 2022 and earnings are in 2022 dollars. Values in Table 3.

Note: The plot has 2,663 colleges with a published cost of attendance, median earnings and at least 100 undergraduates. The cost of attendance is published for academic-year institutions only, so many short for-profit programs are not in it, and for-profit colleges are a small part of the plot.Note: The quadrant lines are medians and the intervals for the shares come from a bootstrap over states that redraws the medians in every replicate. Dollar axes mix academic year 2021 to 2022 costs with earnings in 2022 dollars, which are close in time.Source: College Scorecard, most recent cohorts, May 2025 release (cost of attendance, academic year 2021-2022; earnings of the 2009-2011 entering classes); unweighted, each college counted once

Distance to a campus rises with deprivation and rurality

Reach is measured for counties, not colleges. For each census tract, the chapter takes the straight-line distance in miles from the tract's central point to the nearest four-year campus in the 2023 IPEDS directory. A county's value is the average over its tracts weighted by population, the distance of its average resident. Each county also has a rank on the Area Deprivation Index, the population-weighted average of its tracts' national ranks, and the counties are sorted into tenths of equal numbers. The distance rises from 6.1 (95% CI 5.3 to 6.9) miles in the least deprived tenth to 29.3 (95% CI 24.6 to 35.0) miles in the most deprived. The rise is not steady, and the second, third and fourth tenths are not distinguishable from one another.

Deprivation and rurality overlap. Nonmetro counties are those outside metro areas in the Rural-Urban Continuum Code of the US Department of Agriculture. Within nonmetro counties the distance does not move with the deprivation rank, with a correlation of −0.04 (95% CI −0.12 to 0.05), while within metro counties it rises modestly, with a correlation of +0.24 (95% CI 0.18 to 0.32). The gradient across all counties therefore mostly reflects that deprived counties are more often rural. The ADI is a national rank that understates deprivation in high-cost areas, and a county average hides differences among its tracts.

Figure 3

Distance to a four-year college rises with county deprivation, from 6.1 miles in the least deprived tenth of counties to 29.3 in the most deprived, and with rurality

Miles from the average resident to the nearest four-year campus, and the share of counties with no four-year campus, by tenth of county Area Deprivation Index rank and by Rural-Urban Continuum Code, residents of 2019 to 2023

Distance to the nearest four-year campus rises across the tenths of county deprivation, from 6.1 miles to 29.3

Miles to the nearest four-year campus, average resident

The line rises by 2.1 miles for each step up the tenths, but not at every step: the second to fourth tenths are close together. The intervals widen toward the deprived end, where fewer states contribute counties.

Show data

Data for Distance to a four-year college rises with county deprivation, from 6.1 miles in the least deprived tenth of counties to 29.3 in the most deprived, and with rurality, Distance by deprivation
conf_high	conf_low	miles	n	tenth
6.91	5.27	6.10	312	1
10.37	7.33	8.53	313	2
12.34	7.70	9.36	313	3
11.67	7.94	9.54	312	4
20.68	10.77	14.49	314	5
18.94	12.67	15.25	312	6
21.96	14.73	17.97	313	7
24.30	18.35	21.28	315	8
29.50	22.45	25.60	312	9
35.02	24.64	29.34	312	10

Distance climbs across the tenths of county deprivation in the first tab, and the share of counties with no four-year campus climbs with it in the second. The third tab shows distance climbing from metro counties to the most rural group of nonmetro counties. Points and bars are means over counties weighted by residents, except that the shares count each county once, with intervals from a bootstrap over states. Values in Table 6.

Note: Tracts and campuses are enumerated, not sampled, so the intervals describe how much an estimate varies from state to state and not sampling error. The rural-urban groups use all counties; the tenths use the counties that have an ADI rank.Note: 3,128 counties have an ADI rank; 15 counties whose tracts all have a suppressed rank are not in the tenths. The ADI is a national percentile with 1 least deprived, and it understates deprivation in high-cost areas.Note: The correlation across counties between the ADI rank and the distance is +0.31 when counties count in proportion to their residents and +0.16 when each counts once, with intervals from a bootstrap over states. Connecticut counties take the Rural-Urban Continuum Code held by most of their residents, because the code is published for the planning regions that replaced the counties.Note: Across all the counties in the tenths the average resident lives 9.6 miles from the nearest four-year campus.Source: IPEDS 2023 directory, American Community Survey 2019-2023 (residents), Area Deprivation Index 2023, USDA Rural-Urban Continuum Codes 2023; population-weighted unless the tab gives a share of counties

What the comparisons describe

These comparisons describe colleges and counties, and a pattern across colleges is not a statement about what a college does for a student. Median earnings are lower at for-profit colleges, and the sector gap mixes what colleges do with who enrolls and what programs they run. Hoxby and Avery found that most high-achieving students from low-income families do not apply to selective colleges. These students are geographically dispersed, which makes them harder to reach through recruiting concentrated in a few large metropolitan areas.[2] The distances here measure the supply side of that problem. They say where campuses are, not where students enroll.

What this cannot tell you

Earnings follow local wages and the field of study as well as the college, and these earnings are not adjusted for local wages. Distance is a straight line, so it ignores roads, ferries, online programs and the colleges students choose when they leave home. A county average hides the tracts inside it, and the gradients describe counties and not the families who live in them.

Go deeper

The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
Tables: every figure of the report as a table.

Reading paths that include this chapter:

Money and the institutions that follow the map

Data sources

College ScorecardMedian earnings a decade after entry (entering classes of 2009 to 2010 and 2010 to 2011, 2022 dollars), net price by family-income band, cost of attendance, Pell share (academic year 2021 to 2022), completion and debt; institutions in the 50 states and DC, one row per 6-digit OPE IDYears: May 2025 release (most recent cohorts) · Weights: none (each institution counts once); enrollment weights as a check · License: Public domain (U.S. Department of Education)
IPEDSCampus locations (latitude and longitude, county) of four-year institutions, 2023 directoryYears: 2023 · Weights: none (campuses are points) · License: Public domain (U.S. Department of Education, NCES)
Census TIGER/Line tracts2020 census tract internal points, from which each tract's distance to the nearest campus is measuredYears: 2020 · Weights: none (points) · License: Public domain (U.S. Census Bureau)
Area Deprivation IndexArea Deprivation Index 2023 national rank of tracts, averaged to countiesYears: 2023 release (version 4.0.1; built on ACS 2019-2023) · Weights: 2019 to 2023 ACS tract population · License: Free for non-commercial use; cite the Neighborhood Atlas and Kind and Buckingham
Rural-Urban Continuum CodesRural-Urban Continuum Codes 2023 (metro 1 to 3, nonmetro 4 to 9)Years: 2023 · Weights: none (classification) · License: Public domain (U.S. federal)
American Community Survey2019 to 2023 tract population, used to weight tracts into county valuesYears: 2019-2023 (5-year) · Weights: none (population counts) · License: Public domain (U.S. Census Bureau)

All data sources

References

Deming, David J.; Goldin, Claudia; Katz, Lawrence F. (2012). The For-Profit Postsecondary School Sector: Nimble Critters or Agile Predators?. Journal of Economic Perspectives 26(1): 139-164. doi:10.1257/jep.26.1.139
Hoxby, Caroline; Avery, Christopher (2013). The Missing “One-Offs”: The Hidden Supply of High-Achieving, Low-Income Students. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2013): 1-65. doi:10.1353/eca.2013.0000

How to cite

@misc{singh2026collegeaccesspriceandearnings,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {College access, price and earnings},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/college-access-price-and-earnings},
  note = {In ZIP Code Destiny. Published 9 October 2026.}
}