Chapter 8.4 · Two addresses

Place and the length of a life

Life expectancy at birth was 82.3 years in the least deprived tenth of census tracts and 74.0 years in the most deprived, for deaths recorded in 2010 to 2015.

Author: Vishal Singh
Affiliation: NYU Stern
Published: 9 October 2026
Updated: 11 October 2026

For deaths recorded in 2010 to 2015, life expectancy at birth was 65.8 years in one census tract of Cook County, Illinois, and 78.2 years in another no more than 5 kilometers away. The pair was not picked for that difference. In each of the 20 most populous counties, the chapter takes the pair of tracts within that distance whose deprivation ranks differ most. The rule never compares the life expectancy of the tracts in a pair, and it uses the estimate only to require one with a small enough standard error. In Cook County the less deprived tract of the pair has the higher estimate, by 12.4 (95% CI 7.6 to 17.2) years. Cook County's is the widest pair of the set, and the widest pair of a set is also the one most likely to have been widened by estimation error.

Life expectancy is lower in each more deprived tenth

The chapter's principal comparison is national. Deprivation is measured by the Area Deprivation Index (ADI), a national percentile built from census measures of income, education, employment and housing.[1] The chapter ranks the country's tracts by the ADI and cuts the ranking into tenths. Life expectancy at birth was 82.3 years in the least deprived tenth of census tracts and 74.0 years in the most deprived, for deaths recorded in 2010 to 2015. The difference between them is 8.3 (95% CI 7.9 to 8.7) years. Each tenth's mean is weighted by tract population, and the mean is lower in every tenth than in the one before. The size of the step changes along the way, and the steps are largest at the two ends.

A life expectancy estimate summarizes the death rates of a place during a period. It is the average age at death of newborns who would meet, at every age, the death rates that the tract recorded in 2010 to 2015. It does not predict the lifespan of a particular child.

Figure 1

Life expectancy is lower in each higher tenth of tracts by deprivation, and smoking rises with it while the annual checkup rises little

Tract life expectancy at birth by Area Deprivation Index percentile, and two modeled health measures by tenth of tracts

Life expectancy at birth falls from 82.3 years in the least deprived tenth of tracts to 74.0 years in the most deprived

Life expectancy at birth against the Area Deprivation Index national percentile, one dot per sampled tract, with the population-weighted mean and the interquartile range of tracts at each percentile, deaths in 2010 to 2015

Loading data

The cloud and the line slope down from the least deprived tracts on the left to the most deprived on the right; the line is lower in each tenth than in the one before, and between neighboring percentiles it sometimes rises by a fraction of a year. The line is the population-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at each ADI percentile, the band is the interquartile range of tracts at that percentile, which is spread and not an interval, and the markers are tenths of tracts with 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties.

The cloud and the line slope down from the least deprived tracts on the left to the most deprived on the right. The line is lower in each tenth than in the one before, and between neighboring percentiles it sometimes rises by a fraction of a year. The line is the population-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at each ADI percentile. The shaded band is the interquartile range of tracts at that percentile, a spread of places and not an interval for the line. The markers are tenths of tracts with intervals from resampling counties, and the second tab compares smoking with the annual checkup. Values in Table 1.

Source: USALEEP, 2010-2015; Area Deprivation Index, 2023; CDC PLACES 2024 release (BRFSS 2022); population-weighted, modeled estimates

How we know

The life expectancy figures are the tract estimates of the U.S. Small-area Life Expectancy Estimates Project of the National Center for Health Statistics, for deaths in 2010 to 2015.[2] The gradient uses the 77,936 non-institutional tracts in the states and DC that have a life expectancy estimate and a deprivation rank. The estimates were moved by area from the 2010 tract boundaries onto 2020 tracts. Each tract's value is a modeled estimate with a standard error, so part of the spread among tracts at one rank is estimation error. The timing changes what the comparison means. The ADI describes 2019 to 2023, after the deaths behind the life expectancy estimates, so the chapter sets an earlier pattern of mortality beside a later description of neighborhood conditions. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.

Nearby pairs chosen on deprivation, not on the outcome

Comparing distant places mixes differences in their residents with differences in their surroundings, so the chapter also compares neighbors. A comparison of nearby tracts needs a selection rule. Picking the pairs with the largest apparent gaps would also pick the largest estimation errors. The rule in the opening paragraph avoids that by choosing on the ADI, among tracts with a stable boundary, enough residents and a precise enough estimate. A county counts only if its widest ADI difference reaches the minimum the rule sets.

The rule finds a pair in 17 of the counties, and in 15 of them the less deprived tract has the higher estimate. The median gap over all the pairs, including those whose gap is not positive, is 5.4 (95% CI 3.0 to 6.9) years, with an interval from a bootstrap over pairs. This is a result about the pairs that meet the rule in the large counties searched. It does not estimate the gap between a typical pair of neighbors in the country, and it depends on the settings of the rule, above all the radius. Pairs chosen within 3 kilometers have a median gap of 2.7 years.

Figure 2

In 17 large counties, the pair of tracts within 5 kilometers with the widest ADI difference had higher life expectancy in the less deprived tract in 15, and a median gap over the pairs of 5.4 years

Life expectancy at birth in the two tracts of one pair per county, the pair with the widest ADI difference, in 17 of the 20 most populous counties, native 2010 tracts, deaths in 2010 to 2015, 95% intervals

More deprived tract
Less deprived tract

Show data

Data for In 17 large counties, the pair of tracts within 5 kilometers with the widest ADI difference had higher life expectancy in the less deprived tract in 15, and a median gap over the pairs of 5.4 years
County and tracts	Life expectancy, more deprived tract (years)	Life expectancy, less deprived tract (years)	Gap (years)	ADI, more deprived tract	ADI, less deprived tract	Distance (kilometers)
Cook County, IL (tracts 4910 and 7201)	65.8	78.2	12.4	94	24	5.0
Harris County, TX (tracts 4222 and 4207)	74.7	80.9	6.2	100	14	4.8
Maricopa County, AZ (tracts 4204.01 and 4204.02)	73.2	80.4	7.2	94	14	4.7
San Diego County, CA (tracts 202.09 and 207.06)	79.2	78.5	−0.7	69	5	4.4
Orange County, CA (tracts 748.02 and 751)	76.2	82.3	6.1	61	10	2.2
Miami-Dade County, FL (tracts 1.24 and 11.04)	75.9	81.3	5.4	88	9	4.5
Kings County, NY (tracts 596 and 422)	78.5	81.0	2.5	67	1	3.1
Riverside County, CA (tracts 422.09 and 306.03)	75.8	80.1	4.3	90	11	4.7
Dallas County, TX (tracts 136.21 and 136.11)	77.6	80.6	3.0	72	6	2.0
Queens County, NY (tracts 240 and 1333)	76.8	83.7	6.9	66	5	3.9
King County, WA (tracts 308.01 and 299.02)	72.8	79.4	6.6	89	14	4.1
San Bernardino County, CA (tracts 87.10 and 87.08)	74.2	79.1	4.9	98	24	2.1
Clark County, NV (tracts 29.65 and 29.47)	79.1	79.6	0.5	86	18	3.8
Tarrant County, TX (tracts 1025 and 1054.05)	69.1	79.1	10.0	82	6	2.4
Broward County, FL (tracts 104.02 and 105.02)	79.9	79.9	0.0	92	20	3.1
Bexar County, TX (tracts 1702 and 1902)	76.7	81.0	4.3	96	30	4.6
Wayne County, MI (tracts 5015 and 5506)	70.9	78.3	7.4	94	10	4.0

Each row is one county's pair, with an open dot for the more deprived tract and a filled dot for the less deprived, and in some rows the intervals of the pair overlap. The intervals come from each tract's standard error, and the last column is the difference within the pair. Values in Table 3.

Note: The two tracts of a pair are chosen on the ADI, not on life expectancy, so the differences are not the largest that could be found among noisy estimates. A county with no pair that reaches an ADI difference of 50 percentile points is left out (3 of the 20 counties).Note: Life expectancy is the native estimate for the 2010 tract, used only where the boundary did not change by 2020, meaning that the 2010 and 2020 tracts with one GEOID share at least 99% of the land area of each, so the ADI and the ACS population of the 2020 tract describe the same ground. Distances are straight lines between the Census internal points of the tracts, and the data hold no transit routes. Intervals are normal-approximation 95% intervals from the standard error; the gap treats the two errors as independent. Institutional tracts are excluded.Source: USALEEP life expectancy at birth on 2010 tracts, 2010-2015, with standard errors; Area Deprivation Index, 2023; ACS 2019-2023; modeled estimates

County averages leave out the differences between tracts

The pairs sit inside single counties, and a county can contain neighborhoods with different incomes, housing and health. Splitting the variance of tract life expectancy into a part between states, a part between counties in a state and a part between tracts in a county puts 70.3% in the last part. The split uses every tract in the sample and has no sampling interval. That within-county share includes the estimation error of the modeled estimates. Taking the published errors at face value, 60% of the variance that is not estimation error lies within counties. Those errors understate the noise, so the true share is lower.

Only 34% of the variance of the ADI lies within counties. The index that ranks tracts for the gradient places less of its variation inside counties than life expectancy does. A map that paints each county one color shows the county mean and hides the range around it.

Figure 3

70.3 percent of the variance of tract life expectancy lies between tracts in the same county, 26.7 points of it estimation error, against 34% percent for the ADI

Share of the population-weighted variance of tract life expectancy and of the ADI national percentile that lies between states, between counties in a state and between tracts in a county, percent

Between states
Between counties in a state
Between tracts in a county
Estimation error within counties

Show data

Data for 70.3 percent of the variance of tract life expectancy lies between tracts in the same county, 26.7 points of it estimation error, against 34% percent for the ADI
level	measure	share
Between states	Tract life expectancy	13.75
Between counties in a state	Tract life expectancy	15.92
Between tracts in a county	Tract life expectancy	43.62
Estimation error within counties	Tract life expectancy	26.71
Between states	ADI national percentile	36.64
Between counties in a state	ADI national percentile	29.38
Between tracts in a county	ADI national percentile	33.98

The two right-hand segments of each bar, which together are the share within counties, fill more of the life expectancy bar than of the ADI bar. Each bar sums to the whole variance of its measure, and the estimation error segment sits inside the within-county share of life expectancy. Values in Table 4.

Note: Tract life expectancy is modeled. The mean squared standard error of the tract estimates equals 26.7 percent of the total variance and sits inside the within-county share, as the two right-hand segments show; the 2020-tract standard errors are mapping grade and understate the noise, so the share of the true differences that lies between tracts in a county is lower than the net share.Note: The life expectancy bar uses 78,008 tracts in 3,112 counties and Connecticut planning regions; the ADI bar uses the tracts of the index in the chapter on gradients, slopes and variance. Connecticut's planning regions stand in for its counties.Source: USALEEP life expectancy, 2010-2015; ACS 2019-2023; Area Deprivation Index, 2023; population-weighted decomposition of the variance, full counts of tracts

Patterns among places, not risks for people

Across the national ranking, life expectancy is lower in each more deprived tenth of tracts. These comparisons describe places. A tract with a lower life expectancy and a higher ADI is a tract whose residents, taken together, died younger in 2010 to 2015. The data do not say which of them did, or whether a person who moved would have died later, a limit known as ecological inference. The pairs show that nearby tracts differ, and the data cannot separate what the places do from who lives in them. The Moving to Opportunity experiment randomly assigned families in public housing in high-poverty tracts to a voucher usable only in a low-poverty tract, an unrestricted voucher or no voucher. Neither study of it that the chapter cites measured life expectancy.[3, 4] The chapter sets that evidence beside its descriptive comparisons and does not treat it as an explanation of the whole gradient.

What this cannot tell you

The life expectancy estimates are modeled for deaths in 2010 to 2015 and were never updated. The ADI may rank a tract differently from the way it looked in 2010. The pairs say nothing about counties that are small or rural. Los Angeles, Santa Clara and Alameda counties have no qualifying pair, and because the ADI understates deprivation in high-cost cities, a pair there may exist and not be found. The intervals leave out error in the life expectancy model beyond its standard errors, error from moving estimates onto 2020 tracts and uncertainty in the ADI.

Go deeper

The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
Tables: every figure of the report as a table.

Same question at another grain:

Well-being and life expectancy
- Chapter 6.3, Life evaluation and daily feelings Individuals

Reading paths that include this chapter:

Data sources

USALEEP life expectancyUSALEEP life expectancy at birth with standard errors, 2010-2015: native 2010 tracts for the pairs, 2020 tracts (area-weighted from 2010 tracts, institutional tracts dropped) for everything elseYears: 2010-2015 · Weights: ACS 2019-2023 tract population · License: Public domain (NCHS, CDC)
Area Deprivation IndexNeighborhood Atlas Area Deprivation Index 2023, national percentile, 2020 tractsYears: 2023 release (version 4.0.1; built on ACS 2019-2023) · Weights: ACS 2019-2023 tract population, also for the ADI's split by county (over the frame of tracts of the chapter on gradients, slopes and variance) · License: Free for non-commercial use; cite the Neighborhood Atlas and Kind and Buckingham
American Community SurveyACS 2019-2023 tracts: population (weights and the population floor of the pairs)Years: 2019-2023 (5-year) · Weights: tract population · License: Public domain (U.S. Census Bureau)
Census TIGER/Line tractsCensus 2020 tracts: internal points (distances in the pairs) and tract names; Census 2020 county file: the core-based statistical area of each countyYears: 2020 · Weights: none (locations) · License: Public domain (U.S. Census Bureau)
CDC PLACESCDC PLACES 2024 release, tracts: current smoking and routine checkup among adultsYears: 2024 release (tracts); 2025 release (ZCTAs, 2023 data year) · Weights: adult population of each tract (PLACES) · License: Public domain (CDC, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services)
Published estimates from cited studiesEstimates from Ludwig and coauthors (2011) and Chetty, Hendren and Katz (2016), quoted in the box on the Moving to Opportunity experimentYears: as reported in each study · Weights: as reported in each study · License: Quoted from published research for commentary

All data sources

References

Kind, Amy J. H.; Buckingham, William R. (2018). Making Neighborhood-Disadvantage Metrics Accessible: The Neighborhood Atlas. New England Journal of Medicine 378(26): 2456-2458. doi:10.1056/NEJMp1802313
Arias, Elizabeth; Escobedo, Luis A.; Kennedy, Jiaquan; Fu, Chenxi; Cisewski, Jodi (2018). U.S. Small-area Life Expectancy Estimates Project: Methodology and Results Summary. Vital and Health Statistics, Series 2, Number 181, National Center for Health Statistics. www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/series/sr_02/sr02_181.pdf
Ludwig, Jens; Sanbonmatsu, Lisa; Gennetian, Lisa; Adam, Emma; Duncan, Greg J.; Katz, Lawrence F.; Kessler, Ronald C.; Kling, Jeffrey R.; Lindau, Stacy Tessler; Whitaker, Robert C.; McDade, Thomas W. (2011). Neighborhoods, Obesity, and Diabetes: A Randomized Social Experiment. New England Journal of Medicine 365(16): 1509-1519. doi:10.1056/NEJMsa1103216
Chetty, Raj; Hendren, Nathaniel; Katz, Lawrence F. (2016). The Effects of Exposure to Better Neighborhoods on Children: New Evidence from the Moving to Opportunity Experiment. American Economic Review 106(4): 855-902. doi:10.1257/aer.20150572

How to cite

@misc{singh2026placeandthelengthofalife,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Place and the length of a life},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/place-and-the-length-of-a-life},
  note = {In ZIP Code Destiny. Published 9 October 2026; updated 11 October 2026.}
}