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Contents
ZIP Code Destiny

    Type to search. Planned chapters match by title only.

    Reading path

    The argument in eight chapters

    8 chapters in reading order. A path is a way through the book that follows one question; every chapter also stands alone. A companion stop is optional and is not counted in that total.

    1. 1
      Place and the length of a life

      Chapter 6.1 in Part VI, Early death

      Life expectancy at birth is lower in more deprived neighborhoods, 74.0 against 82.3 years in the most and least deprived tenths of census tracts for deaths in 2010 to 2015, and county averages conceal differences within counties.

      PublishedNeighborhoodsusaleepadiplacesacscensus-tigerpublished-estimates

    2. 2
      Birthweight and preterm birth

      Chapter 1.1 in Part I, Birth

      In counties of 100,000 or more residents, the share of births under 2,500 grams rises from 7.4% in the least deprived tenth of counties to 9.7% in the most deprived, and the rate for non-Hispanic Black mothers is higher than for non-Hispanic white mothers in every quartile of county deprivation.

      PublishedCountieswonder-natalitywonder-lbdadichr

    3. 3
      Test scores, class and race

      Chapter 2.1 in Part II, School

      Average achievement in third through eighth grade differs by 2.54 grade levels between the 5th and 95th percentile of counties, and it rises with county income, with a positive slope in 45 of 45 states.

      PublishedCountiessedachr

    4. 4
      Race, income and mobility

      Chapter 3.3 in Part III, The climb

      White children from low-income families reached a higher adult income rank than Black children raised in the same tract in 92.5% of the 30,997 tracts where both are estimated, and across the 1,265 counties with life expectancy estimates for both groups, weighted by population, non-Hispanic white life expectancy exceeds non-Hispanic Black by 4.4 years.

      PublishedNeighborhoodsopportunity-atlassocial-capital-atlasfood-accesschracs

    5. 5
      Health behaviors and the supply of care

      Chapter 5.1 in Part V, Health and the body

      In the most deprived tenth of census tracts, the share of adults who saw a dentist in the past year was 24.4 points lower than in the least deprived tenth, and the share who had a routine checkup was 3.6 points higher.

      PublishedNeighborhoodsplacesadichracs

    6. Companion stop

      Air pollution

      Chapter 5.3 in Part V, Health and the body

      The national traffic-pollution percentile of a census tract has a correlation of −0.41 with the Area Deprivation Index across tracts but +0.19 within counties, and the NO₂ percentile rises with the Hispanic share of residents from 33 in the lowest decile to 73 in the highest.

      PublishedNeighborhoodsejscreenadiplacesholcacs

    7. 6
      Gun homicide and the causes of early death

      Chapter 6.2 in Part VI, Early death

      The tract clusters with the highest firearm homicide rates hold 50% of the deaths implied for 2022 to 2024 and 9.5% of residents outside New York City, and in Cook County the residents of the highest-rate clusters have a life expectancy of 71.7 years (deaths in 2010 to 2015), 9.5 fewer than those in clusters with no recorded deaths.

      PublishedNeighborhoodsinjury-violenceusaleepadiacschr

    8. 7
      Disability, retirement and Medicare

      Chapter 8.1 in Part VIII, Old age

      Adult disability rises from 23.3% to 42.9% across tenths of tracts by deprivation and the disabled-worker share of Social Security beneficiaries from 7.2% to 16.8% across fifths of ZIP codes, while Medicare payments per fee-for-service beneficiary show no detectable difference between the least and most deprived fifths of counties and, weighted by residents, county values of expected age at death at 40 spread more for the poorest income quartile than for the richest.

      PublishedNeighborhoodsssa-oasdicms-geo-variationhealth-inequalityacsadiplacesirs-soichr

    9. 8
      Places that beat the model

      Chapter 9.4 in Part IX, The whole map

      Five census measures account for 44.0% of the variation in tract upward mobility, counties below that prediction cluster in the South and the largest counties above it lie around New York, and counties above it lost tax filers on net in filing years 2022 and 2023, a correlation of −0.44.

      PublishedCountiesusaleepadiirs-migrationopportunity-atlasacscensus-tigerplacesejscreenirs-soi

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