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    Chapter 9.3 · Coda

    Places that beat the model

    Five census measures from 2019 to 2023 account for 44.0% of the variation in tract upward mobility for children born in 1978 to 1983, and counties below that prediction cluster in the South.

    Affiliation
    NYU Stern
    Published
    Updated

    Children raised in low-income families in Richmond County, New York, which is Staten Island, reached an adult household income rank +6.2 (95% CI 5.3 to 7.2)+6.2 percentile points of national household income rank in adulthood, actual minus predictedEstimandpopulation-weighted mean of the tract residuals in the county; the interval is 1.96 standard errors from the spread of tract residuals within the countyInterval95% CI 5.3 to 7.2n117 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution) in Richmond, NYPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas percentile points above the rank that five census measures of the county's tracts predict. In St. Johns County, Florida, the gap runs the other way, at −5.8 (95% CI −7.3 to −4.4)−5.8 percentile points of national household income rank in adulthood, actual minus predictedEstimandpopulation-weighted mean of the tract residuals in the county; the interval is 1.96 standard errors from the spread of tract residuals within the countyInterval95% CI −7.3 to −4.4n49 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution) in St. Johns, FLPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas points. Among the counties of at least 250,000250,000 residentsEstimandcounty size above which counties are named (inclusion rule)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)PopulationcountiesPeriodACS 2019 to 2023SourceAmerican Community Survey residents, these are the largest and the smallest such gaps, and the next largest are in Nassau County, New York, Bergen County, New Jersey, and Queens. The children were born in 1978 to 1983 and their incomes were measured in 2014 to 2015, while the five measures describe the tracts in 2019 to 2023.

    Five census measures account for part of tract mobility

    The outcome is the position in the national distribution of household incomeIncome rank (kfr)The position that adult children reach in the national distribution of household income, from the lowest rank to the highest, averaged over children who grew up in a place with parents at a stated income level. The Opportunity Atlas labels this measure kfr. that children from low-income families had reached as adults, as the Opportunity Atlas estimates it.[1] The chapter calls it upward mobility. The five predictors are the poverty rate, the share of adults with a bachelor's degree or more, the single-parent household share, the natural log of median household income and the Black share of residents. All five come from the American Community Survey for 2019 to 2023. A line fitted across 82,79182,791 tractsEstimandcount of tracts in the modelWeightsnone (full count)Population2020 census tracts with more than 200 residents, a mobility estimate and all five predictorsPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas census tractsCensus tractA small area drawn by the Census Bureau to stand in for a neighborhood. Boundaries are redrawn after each decennial census., with each tract counted in proportion to its population, accounts for 44.0% (95% CI 41.8% to 46.1%)44.0% percent of the variance of tract upward mobilityEstimandR-squared of the population-weighted least-squares fit of tract mobility on poverty, college share, single-parent share, log median income and Black share, county-bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 41.8% to 46.1%n82,791 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulation2020 census tracts with more than 200 residents, a mobility estimate and all five predictorsPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas of the variation in tract mobility.

    Figure 1

    Five census measures account for 44.0% of the variation in tract upward mobility, and the population-weighted standard deviation of the gap between actual and predicted rank is 5.0 percentile points

    Adult household income rank (percentile) of children raised in low-income families against the rank predicted from poverty, college, single-parent share, income and Black share, one dot per tract (random sample)

    Loading data

    The markers for tenths of tracts ranked by prediction sit close to the diagonal of perfect prediction, and the dots for single tracts spread on both sides of it. Each dot is a tract from a random sample, placed at its predicted and actual adult income rank, and its vertical distance from the diagonal is its residual. Values in Table 1.

    Note: The dots are a random sample of the tracts inside the plotted range, drawn with a fixed seed (stated in the methods note); the R-squared, the residuals and the markers use every tract in the model.Note: Predictors are the poverty rate, the share of adults with a bachelor's degree or more, the single-parent household share, the natural log of median household income and the Black share of residents (Black alone, of any ethnicity), all from the ACS for 2019 to 2023. Tracts with 200 residents or fewer are left out, and each tract is weighted by its ACS population.Note: The outcome describes children raised in the 1980s and 1990s and the predictors describe 2019 to 2023, so the residual includes whatever changed in between. Ranks are percentiles of the national distribution of household income for children born in 1978 to 1983, measured in 2014 to 2015. The Opportunity Atlas adds noise to its estimates to protect privacy and the staged values are never clipped. The file on 2020 tracts is interpolated from 2010 tracts by land area.Source: Opportunity Atlas tract outcomes, 1978-1983 birth cohorts (2020 tracts), and ACS 2019-2023 predictors; population-weighted (ACS tract population), modeled estimates

    The markers for tenths lie close to the diagonal, so the line is not tilted at either end. The gap between a tract's actual rank and its predicted rank is its residual, the part of mobility that the five measures leave unexplained. Averaged to counties, that part is not scattered at random. It lies below the prediction in the South and above it in the largest counties around New York. A residual is not a measure of what a place does to a child.

    How we know

    The outcome and the predictors describe different decades. The children grew up in the 1980s and 1990s, and the five measures describe 2019 to 2023. Each prediction therefore asks what a tract's census profile today implies for children raised there a generation ago. A tract's residual mixes that gap between decades with two other things the data cannot separate. The Atlas estimate for a tract rests on a modest number of children and carries added privacy noise. The five measures also omit much that differs between places, such as schools and local labor markets. The interval on the share of variation comes from a bootstrapBootstrap intervalA range for an estimate found by recomputing it on many random resamples of the data and reading the range from the results. It shows how much the estimate would vary from sample to sample. that resamples whole counties. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.

    Counties below the prediction cluster in the South

    A county's residual is the mean of its tract residuals, weighted by tract population, for counties with at least 88 tractsEstimandminimum number of tracts in the model for a county to have a residual (inclusion rule)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)PopulationcountiesPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas tracts in the model. Ranking counties on a noisy estimate can produce a list of extremes that is mostly noise, so the chapter checks the ranking first. It splits the tracts of each county at random into two subsets, ranks counties on one subset and reads the residual off the other. Across counties the residuals of the two subsets correlate +0.85 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.88)+0.85 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation across counties between the mean residual of one random half of a county's tracts and the other half, each county counted once, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI 0.80 to 0.88n1,486 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with at least 8 tracts in the model and at least 3 tracts in each random halfPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas, so the ranking is not an artifact of the noise in a subset.

    Figure 2

    Counties below the prediction cluster in the South, and the largest counties above it lie around New York

    Population-weighted mean residual of tract upward mobility (actual minus predicted rank, percentile points) by county, counties with at least 8 tracts in the model

    Loading county values

    Mean residual of upward mobility (percentile points, actual minus predicted)

    Below the predictionAbove the prediction

    Values outside −5.0 to 5.0 take the end colors.

    No data (3,143 counties)

    Select a class to show only those places.

    Hover or tap a county for its value, or search by name. Zoom with the buttons on the map, then drag to move it.

    Brown counties, below the prediction, cluster across the Southeast, and the largest of the teal counties, above it, lie in the New York area. Each county is shaded by the population-weighted mean residual of its tracts, in percentile points of adult income rank, and gray counties have fewer tracts in the model than the floor, or none. Values in Table 2.

    Note: A county is mapped when at least 8 of its tracts are in the model, which covers 94% of the model's population. Each gray county gives its reason in the tooltip.Note: The interval in the tooltip treats a county's tracts as independent draws, so it leaves out errors that all tracts of a county share. The typical standard error is 0.7 percentile points.Note: Connecticut is drawn as its eight legacy counties; its tracts are assigned to them exactly. Alaska is drawn. Puerto Rico is left out of the model and is not drawn. Ranks are percentiles of the national distribution of household income for children born in 1978 to 1983, measured in 2014 to 2015. The Opportunity Atlas adds noise to its estimates to protect privacy and the staged values are never clipped. The file on 2020 tracts is interpolated from 2010 tracts by land area.Source: Opportunity Atlas tract outcomes, 1978-1983 birth cohorts, and ACS 2019-2023; population-weighted county means of model residuals, modeled estimates

    Of the bottom tenth of mapped counties, 81%81% percent of countiesEstimandshare of those counties in the South Census region, under a floor of 8 tractsn157 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationthe bottom tenth of counties with a residual, ranked by mean residualPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas lie in the South, a Census region that holds 46%46% percent of countiesEstimandshare of all counties with a residual that are in the South Census region, under a floor of 8 tractsn1,576 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with at least 8 tracts in the modelPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas of all mapped counties. With a floor of 1515 tractsEstimandanother minimum number of tracts in the model tried for a county residual (sensitivity)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)PopulationcountiesPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas tracts, the South's share of the bottom tenth is 83%83% percent of countiesEstimandshare of those counties in the South Census region, under a floor of 15 tractsn94 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationthe bottom tenth of counties with a residual, ranked by mean residualPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas.

    The top tenth depends on the floor. Under the floor the map uses, 54%54% percent of countiesEstimandshare of those counties in the Midwest Census region, under a floor of 8 tractsn158 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationthe top tenth of counties with a residual, ranked by mean residualPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas of the top tenth lie in the Midwest, which holds 28%28% percent of countiesEstimandshare of all counties with a residual that are in the Midwest Census region, under a floor of 8 tractsn1,576 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with at least 8 tracts in the modelPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas of the mapped counties. With the higher floor, the Midwest share of the top tenth is 37%37% percent of countiesEstimandshare of those counties in the Midwest Census region, under a floor of 15 tractsn95 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationthe top tenth of counties with a residual, ranked by mean residualPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas against 23%23% percent of countiesEstimandshare of all counties with a residual that are in the Midwest Census region, under a floor of 15 tractsn944 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with at least 15 tracts in the modelPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas of the counties. The Midwestern part of the top tenth is therefore made of counties with few tracts, and the largest counties above the prediction are the ones near New York.

    What the residual describes, and what it does not

    Older housing and fewer smokers mark the counties above the prediction. Against the tenth of counties with the smallest residuals, the tenth with the largest has more housing built before 1960, a larger Hispanic share, less poverty and fewer adults who smoke. The differences in the Black share, in homeownership and in college include zero. These traits describe counties selected on the residual, and their intervals treat the two groups as fixed.

    Figure 3

    Counties in the top tenth by residual have more pre-1960 housing, a larger Hispanic share, less poverty and fewer smokers than the bottom tenth, and the differences in the Black share, ownership and college include zero

    Population-weighted tract means in the bottom and top tenths of counties by mean residual (equal numbers of counties), with 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties

    • Bottom tenth of counties (below the prediction)
    • Top tenth of counties (above the prediction)
    Show data
    Data for Counties in the top tenth by residual have more pre-1960 housing, a larger Hispanic share, less poverty and fewer smokers than the bottom tenth, and the differences in the Black share, ownership and college include zero
    TraitBottom tenthTop tenthTop minus bottom (points)Lower limit of the 95% intervalUpper limit of the 95% interval
    Housing built before 1960 (share of housing units)18.138.3+20.1+9.8+29.2
    Hispanic residents (share of residents)10.515.7+5.2+0.7+9.3
    Black-alone residents (share of residents)11.88.6−3.2−7.2+0.3
    Adults who currently smoke (crude prevalence, share of adults)15.913.5−2.4−3.5−0.9
    Owner-occupied homes (share of households)70.268.2−1.9−8.4+4.0
    Adults with a bachelor's degree or more (share of adults)33.937.6+3.6−2.5+9.2
    Residents below the poverty line (share of residents)12.610.7−1.9−3.4−0.2

    The filled dot for the top tenth lies right of the open dot for the bottom tenth for housing built before 1960 and the Hispanic share, and left of it for smoking and poverty. Each dot is a population-weighted tract mean for a tenth of counties ranked on the residual. The poverty, college and Black-share rows are predictors in the model, and smoking is a modeled estimate built partly from census inputs. Values in Table 3.

    Note: Tenths hold equal numbers of counties ranked on the mean residual, and the tracts of those counties form the groups. The groups are fixed before the draws, so the intervals leave out the uncertainty of the ranking.Note: Race shares are race alone and include Hispanic residents of any race. Smoking is the PLACES crude prevalence among adults, a model-based estimate built partly from ACS inputs. The pre-1960 share is from EJScreen, which draws it from the ACS for 2018 to 2022. Tracts without a value drop out of that row.Note: The poverty, college and Black-share rows are predictors in the model, so their gaps are differences between whole counties; inside a tract the residual is unrelated to them by construction.Source: ACS 2019-2023, CDC PLACES 2024 release (smoking, modeled estimates) and EPA EJScreen 2024 (housing age); population-weighted (ACS tract population) tract means by group of counties

    The chapter's second step follows tax filers between counties, using returns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023.[2] Across counties, the residual correlates −0.44 (95% CI −0.57 to −0.28)−0.44 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation across counties of the county mean residual of mobility with the net migration rate, weighted by county population, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −0.57 to −0.28n1,576 countiesWeightsACS 2019-2023 county populationPopulationcounties with a residual and a net migration ratePeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); mobility for children born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceIRS migration data with the net migration rate, arriving minus leaving returns per thousand returns filed, with each county weighted by population. Part of that link is built in by timing. The predictors describe 2019 to 2023, after many movers had arrived. A county that gained college-educated residents therefore has high predictors and, if its children's outcomes predate those residents, a negative residual. The data cannot separate that mechanical link from any other.

    The two halves of the chapter also describe different people. The residual scores the adult outcomes of children raised in the 1980s and 1990s, and the migration data count the moves of filers in 2022 and 2023. Reading one against the other compares where two different populations sit on the same map.

    What this cannot tell you

    None of the residuals measures what a place does for a child. The standard error of a county residual leaves out errors that all of a county's tracts share, and the gray counties on the map have no residual. The migration figures cover one pair of filing years, which follow the pandemic years, and they compare counties, so they say nothing about why any household moved.

    Go deeper

    • The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
    • Tables: every figure of the report as a table.

    Reading paths that include this chapter:

    Data sources

    • Opportunity AtlasAdult household income rank of children born 1978 to 1983 to parents at the 25th income percentile, 2020-tract file (the model's outcome) and county file (the migration comparison)Years: 1978-1983 birth cohorts (2018 release) · Weights: ACS 2019-2023 tract population; county population · License: Public use (Opportunity Insights and the U.S. Census Bureau)
    • American Community SurveyACS 2019 to 2023 tract measures (poverty, college, single-parent share, median household income, race and ethnicity, homeownership, population) and tract median home values, averaged to countiesYears: 2019-2023 (5-year) · Weights: 2019-2023 tract population · License: Public domain (U.S. Census Bureau)
    • Census TIGER/Line tracts2020 tract land area, for residents per square mileYears: 2020 · Weights: none (land area) · License: Public domain (U.S. Census Bureau)
    • CDC PLACESCurrent smoking among adults, 2024 release, tractsYears: 2024 release (tracts); 2025 release (ZCTAs, 2023 data year) · Weights: 2019-2023 tract population · License: Public domain (CDC, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services)
    • EPA EJScreenShare of housing units built before 1960, 2024 release, tractsYears: 2024 (indicators); ACS 2018-2022 (demographics) · Weights: 2019-2023 tract population · License: Public domain (U.S. EPA); archived copy on Zenodo
    • USALEEP life expectancyLife expectancy at birth by tract, deaths in 2010 to 2015, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts, for the life-expectancy version of the model and county meansYears: 2010-2015 · Weights: 2019-2023 tract population · License: Public domain (NCHS, CDC)
    • Area Deprivation IndexArea Deprivation Index 2023, national rank, tracts averaged to countiesYears: 2023 release (version 4.0.1; built on ACS 2019-2023) · Weights: 2019-2023 tract population · License: Free for non-commercial use; cite the Neighborhood Atlas and Kind and Buckingham
    • IRS migration dataCounty-to-county migration, filing years 2022 and 2023: arriving and leaving returns and adjusted gross income, all origins and destinationsYears: 2022-2023 (filing years) · Weights: none (full counts of returns) · License: Public domain (IRS Statistics of Income)
    • IRS Statistics of IncomeIRS Statistics of Income county file, tax year 2022: returns filed, summed over the income brackets, the denominator of the net migration rateYears: tax year 2022 · Weights: none (full counts of returns) · License: Public domain (IRS Statistics of Income)

    All data sources

    References

    1. Chetty, Raj; Friedman, John N.; Hendren, Nathaniel; Jones, Maggie R.; Porter, Sonya R. (2018). The Opportunity Atlas: Mapping the Childhood Roots of Social Mobility. NBER Working Paper 25147. doi:10.3386/w25147
    2. Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division (2025). 2022-2023 Migration Data Users Guide. IRS Statistics of Income, County-to-County Migration Data. www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/2223inpublicmigdoc.pdf

    How to cite

    @misc{singh2026placesthatbeatthemodel,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Places that beat the model},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/places-that-beat-the-model},
  note = {In ZIP Code Destiny. Published 9 October 2026; updated 28 October 2026.}
}