Places that beat the model

Five census measures account for 44.0% (95% CI 41.8% to 46.1%)44.0% percent of the variance of tract upward mobilityEstimandR-squared of the population-weighted least-squares fit of tract mobility on poverty, college share, single-parent share, log median income and Black share, county-bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 41.8% to 46.1%n82,791 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulation2020 census tracts with more than 200 residents, a mobility estimate and all five predictorsPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas of the variation in upward mobility across 82,79182,791 tractsEstimandcount of tracts in the modelWeightsnone (full count)Population2020 census tracts with more than 200 residents, a mobility estimate and all five predictorsPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas tracts, where upward mobility is the adult household income rank of children raised in low-income families.[1] The children were born in 1978 to 1983, and the five measures describe the tracts in 2019 to 2023. The remaining 56.0%56.0% percent of the variance of tract upward mobilityEstimandone minus the R-squared of the five-measure model, county-bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 53.9% to 58.2%n82,791 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulation2020 census tracts with more than 200 residents, a mobility estimate and all five predictorsPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas is not scattered at random. Averaged to counties, it lies below the prediction in the South and above it in the largest counties around New York. The counties above the prediction lost tax filers on net in filing years 2022 and 2023, a correlation of −0.44 (95% CI −0.57 to −0.28)−0.44 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation across counties of the county mean residual of mobility with the net migration rate, weighted by county population, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −0.57 to −0.28n1,576 countiesWeightsACS 2019-2023 county populationPopulationcounties with a residual and a net migration ratePeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); mobility for children born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceIRS migration data between the county residual and the net migration rate. Part of that correlation is built in by timing, since the five measures describe counties after many of the movers had arrived.

The chapter takes two steps. The first fits the model, averages its residuals to counties and describes the counties at both ends. The second follows tax filers between counties and asks whether net migration runs toward the places where children from low-income families rise furthest. The life-expectancy gradient that the book starts from is in Chapter 8.4, Place and the length of a life, and the Opportunity Atlas map of mobility is in Chapter 4.3, Race, income and mobility. A residual is the part of mobility that these five measures leave unexplained. It is not a measure of what a place does to a child.

A five-measure model of upward mobility

The outcome is the position in the national distribution of household incomeIncome rank (kfr)The position that adult children reach in the national distribution of household income, from the lowest rank to the highest, averaged over children who grew up in a place with parents at a stated income level. The Opportunity Atlas labels this measure kfr. that children born in 1978 to 1983 to parents at the 25th income percentile had reached by 2014 to 2015, as the Opportunity Atlas estimates it. The predictors are the poverty rate, the share of adults with a bachelor's degree or more, the single-parent household share, the natural log of median household income and the Black share of residents (Black alone, of any ethnicity). All five come from the American Community Survey (ACS) for 2019 to 2023. A weighted least-squares line, with each tractCensus tractA small area drawn by the Census Bureau to stand in for a neighborhood. Boundaries are redrawn after each decennial census. counted in proportion to its population, fits 82,79182,791 tractsEstimandcount of tracts in the modelWeightsnone (full count)Population2020 census tracts with more than 200 residents, a mobility estimate and all five predictorsPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas tracts in 3,1363,136 countiesEstimandcount of countiesWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties and county equivalents with a tract in the modelPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity AtlasNoteConnecticut counts as its eight legacy counties. counties after leaving out tracts with 200200 residentsEstimanda tract needs more than this many residents to enter the model (inclusion rule)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)Population2020 census tractsPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas residents or fewer. It accounts for 44.0% (95% CI 41.8% to 46.1%)44.0% percent of the variance of tract upward mobilityEstimandR-squared of the population-weighted least-squares fit of tract mobility on poverty, college share, single-parent share, log median income and Black share, county-bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 41.8% to 46.1%n82,791 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulation2020 census tracts with more than 200 residents, a mobility estimate and all five predictorsPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas of the variance in tract mobility, and 56.0% (95% CI 53.9% to 58.2%)56.0% percent of the variance of tract upward mobilityEstimandone minus the R-squared of the five-measure model, county-bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 53.9% to 58.2%n82,791 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulation2020 census tracts with more than 200 residents, a mobility estimate and all five predictorsPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas remains. The interval comes from a bootstrapBootstrap intervalA range for an estimate found by recomputing it on many random resamples of the data and reading the range from the results. It shows how much the estimate would vary from sample to sample. that resamples whole counties.

The outcome and the predictors describe different decades. The children grew up in the 1980s and 1990s, and the predictors describe 2019 to 2023. Each prediction therefore asks what a tract's census profile today implies for children raised there a generation ago. Table 1 plots the actual rank against the prediction. Tenths of tracts ranked by prediction lie close to the diagonal, so the line is not tilted at either end. The dots spread around it with a population-weighted standard deviation of 5.05.0 percentile points of national household income rank in adulthoodEstimandpopulation-weighted standard deviation of the tract residual (actual minus predicted rank)n82,791 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulation2020 census tracts with more than 200 residents, a mobility estimate and all five predictorsPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity AtlasNoteFull counts of the tracts in the model; no sampling interval is drawn. percentile points. The gap between a tract's actual and predicted rank is its residual.

Table 1. Five census measures account for 44.0% of the variation in tract upward mobility, and the population-weighted standard deviation of the gap between actual and predicted rank is 5.0 percentile points

A tract's residual mixes things the data cannot separate. The Atlas estimate for a tract rests on a modest number of children and carries added privacy noise. The five measures omit much that differs between places, such as schools and local labor markets. The outcome and the predictors also describe different decades. The next section asks whether residuals averaged to counties behave like noise.

Counties above and below the prediction

The residual of a county is the mean of its tract residuals, weighted by tract population. A county needs at least 88 tractsEstimandminimum number of tracts in the model for a county to have a residual (inclusion rule)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)PopulationcountiesPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas tracts in the model, which leaves 1,5761,576 countiesEstimandcount of counties with a residualWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties with at least 8 tracts in the modelPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas counties that hold 94%94% percent of the population of the tracts in the modelEstimandshare of the model's population living in counties with a residualn1,576 countiesWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulation2020 census tracts with more than 200 residents, a mobility estimate and all five predictorsPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas of the model's population (Table 2). County residuals run from −4.8−4.8 percentile points of national household income rank in adulthood, actual minus predictedEstimandfifth percentile of the county mean residual, each county counted oncen1,576 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with at least 8 tracts in the modelPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas percentile points at the fifth percentile of counties to +5.0+5.0 percentile points of national household income rank in adulthood, actual minus predictedEstimandninety-fifth percentile of the county mean residual, each county counted oncen1,576 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with at least 8 tracts in the modelPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas at the ninety-fifth.

Ranking counties on a noisy estimate can produce a list of extremes that is mostly noise, so two checks come first. The typical standard error of a county residual is 0.70.7 percentile points of national household income rank in adulthoodEstimandmedian across counties of the standard error of the county mean residual (spread of tract residuals within the county)n1,576 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with at least 8 tracts in the modelPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity AtlasNoteThe standard error treats a county's tracts as independent draws. It leaves out errors shared by all tracts of a county. percentile points, small beside that spread. It treats the tracts of a county as independent and leaves out errors that all of them share. The second check splits the tracts of each county at random into two subsets, ranks counties on one subset and reads the residual off the other. Across counties the residuals of the two subsets correlate +0.85 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.88)+0.85 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation across counties between the mean residual of one random half of a county's tracts and the other half, each county counted once, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI 0.80 to 0.88n1,486 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with at least 8 tracts in the model and at least 3 tracts in each random halfPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas. The tenth of counties highest in the first subset has a mean residual of +5.0 (95% CI 3.7 to 6.1)+5.0 percentile points of national household income rank in adulthood, actual minus predictedEstimandmean residual in the second random half of tracts of the top tenth of counties ranked on the first half, each county counted once, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI 3.7 to 6.1n1,486 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with at least 8 tracts in the model and at least 3 tracts in each random halfPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas in the second, against −4.4 (95% CI −5.0 to −3.4)−4.4 percentile points of national household income rank in adulthood, actual minus predictedEstimandmean residual in the second random half of tracts of the bottom tenth of counties ranked on the first half, each county counted once, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −5.0 to −3.4n1,486 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with at least 8 tracts in the model and at least 3 tracts in each random halfPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas for the lowest tenth. The ranking is therefore not an artifact of the noise in a subset.

The floor matters for the extremes. A floor of 55 tractsEstimandanother minimum number of tracts in the model tried for a county residual (sensitivity)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)PopulationcountiesPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas tracts maps 2,1402,140 countiesEstimandcount of counties with a residual under this floorWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties with at least 5 tracts in the modelPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas counties and puts the ninety-fifth percentile of county residuals at +6.6+6.6 percentile points of national household income rank in adulthood, actual minus predictedEstimandninety-fifth percentile of the county mean residual under this floor, each county counted oncen2,140 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with at least 5 tracts in the modelPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas. A floor of 1515 tractsEstimandanother minimum number of tracts in the model tried for a county residual (sensitivity)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)PopulationcountiesPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas maps 944944 countiesEstimandcount of counties with a residual under this floorWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties with at least 15 tracts in the modelPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas and puts it at +3.9+3.9 percentile points of national household income rank in adulthood, actual minus predictedEstimandninety-fifth percentile of the county mean residual under this floor, each county counted oncen944 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with at least 15 tracts in the modelPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas. The correlation of the residual with net migration, below, keeps its sign at both floors.

Among the 281281 countiesEstimandcount of those countiesWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties with at least 8 tracts in the model and at least 250,000 residentsPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas counties with at least 250,000250,000 residentsEstimandcounty size above which counties are named (inclusion rule)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)PopulationcountiesPeriodACS 2019 to 2023SourceAmerican Community Survey residents, the largest residuals, in percentile points of adult income rank, are in Richmond County, New York, which is Staten Island (+6.2 (95% CI 5.3 to 7.2)+6.2 percentile points of national household income rank in adulthood, actual minus predictedEstimandpopulation-weighted mean of the tract residuals in the county; the interval is 1.96 standard errors from the spread of tract residuals within the countyInterval95% CI 5.3 to 7.2n117 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution) in Richmond, NYPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas), Nassau County, New York (+6.1 (95% CI 5.4 to 6.8)+6.1 percentile points of national household income rank in adulthood, actual minus predictedEstimandpopulation-weighted mean of the tract residuals in the county; the interval is 1.96 standard errors from the spread of tract residuals within the countyInterval95% CI 5.4 to 6.8n278 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution) in Nassau, NYPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas), Bergen County, New Jersey (+6.1 (95% CI 5.5 to 6.7)+6.1 percentile points of national household income rank in adulthood, actual minus predictedEstimandpopulation-weighted mean of the tract residuals in the county; the interval is 1.96 standard errors from the spread of tract residuals within the countyInterval95% CI 5.5 to 6.7n203 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution) in Bergen, NJPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas) and Queens (+5.6 (95% CI 5.2 to 6.1)+5.6 percentile points of national household income rank in adulthood, actual minus predictedEstimandpopulation-weighted mean of the tract residuals in the county; the interval is 1.96 standard errors from the spread of tract residuals within the countyInterval95% CI 5.2 to 6.1n673 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution) in Queens, NYPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas).

The smallest residuals are in St. Johns County, Florida (−5.8 (95% CI −7.3 to −4.4)−5.8 percentile points of national household income rank in adulthood, actual minus predictedEstimandpopulation-weighted mean of the tract residuals in the county; the interval is 1.96 standard errors from the spread of tract residuals within the countyInterval95% CI −7.3 to −4.4n49 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution) in St. Johns, FLPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas), Denver (−5.4 (95% CI −6.1 to −4.6)−5.4 percentile points of national household income rank in adulthood, actual minus predictedEstimandpopulation-weighted mean of the tract residuals in the county; the interval is 1.96 standard errors from the spread of tract residuals within the countyInterval95% CI −6.1 to −4.6n175 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution) in Denver, COPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas) and Buncombe County, North Carolina, which holds Asheville (−5.4 (95% CI −6.1 to −4.6)−5.4 percentile points of national household income rank in adulthood, actual minus predictedEstimandpopulation-weighted mean of the tract residuals in the county; the interval is 1.96 standard errors from the spread of tract residuals within the countyInterval95% CI −6.1 to −4.6n64 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationchildren raised in low-income families (parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution) in Buncombe, NCPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas).

Of the 1010 countiesEstimandnumber of counties taken from each end of the ranking by residualWeightsnone (inclusion rule)Populationcounties with at least 8 tracts in the model and at least 250,000 residentsPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas counties of that size with the largest residuals, 99 countiesEstimandhow many lie in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts or Virginian10 countiesWeightsnone (full count)Populationthe counties of that size with the largest residualsPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas lie in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts or Virginia. Of the 1010 countiesEstimandnumber of counties taken from each end of the ranking by residualWeightsnone (inclusion rule)Populationcounties with at least 8 tracts in the model and at least 250,000 residentsPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas smallest, 88 countiesEstimandhow many lie in the South Census region (the Census Bureau's definition, which includes the District of Columbia)n10 countiesWeightsnone (full count)Populationthe counties of that size with the smallest residualsPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas lie in the South, a Census region that includes the District of Columbia.

Across the mapped counties, the South holds the bottom tenth. Of its counties, 81%81% percent of countiesEstimandshare of those counties in the South Census region, under a floor of 8 tractsn157 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationthe bottom tenth of counties with a residual, ranked by mean residualPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas lie in the South, which holds 46%46% percent of countiesEstimandshare of all counties with a residual that are in the South Census region, under a floor of 8 tractsn1,576 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with at least 8 tracts in the modelPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas of all mapped counties. The share is 83%83% percent of countiesEstimandshare of those counties in the South Census region, under a floor of 15 tractsn94 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationthe bottom tenth of counties with a residual, ranked by mean residualPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas with a floor of 1515 tractsEstimandanother minimum number of tracts in the model tried for a county residual (sensitivity)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)PopulationcountiesPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas tracts.

The top tenth depends on the floor. With the floor of 88 tractsEstimandminimum number of tracts in the model for a county to have a residual (inclusion rule)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)PopulationcountiesPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas tracts, 54%54% percent of countiesEstimandshare of those counties in the Midwest Census region, under a floor of 8 tractsn158 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationthe top tenth of counties with a residual, ranked by mean residualPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas of the top tenth lie in the Midwest, which holds 28%28% percent of countiesEstimandshare of all counties with a residual that are in the Midwest Census region, under a floor of 8 tractsn1,576 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with at least 8 tracts in the modelPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas of the counties. Another 14%14% percent of countiesEstimandshare of those counties in the Northeast Census region, under a floor of 8 tractsn158 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationthe top tenth of counties with a residual, ranked by mean residualPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas lie in the Northeast, which holds 13%13% percent of countiesEstimandshare of all counties with a residual that are in the Northeast Census region, under a floor of 8 tractsn1,576 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with at least 8 tracts in the modelPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas.

With a floor of 1515 tractsEstimandanother minimum number of tracts in the model tried for a county residual (sensitivity)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)PopulationcountiesPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas tracts the Midwest share of the top tenth is 37%37% percent of countiesEstimandshare of those counties in the Midwest Census region, under a floor of 15 tractsn95 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationthe top tenth of counties with a residual, ranked by mean residualPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas against 23%23% percent of countiesEstimandshare of all counties with a residual that are in the Midwest Census region, under a floor of 15 tractsn944 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with at least 15 tracts in the modelPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas of the counties. The Northeast share is 28%28% percent of countiesEstimandshare of those counties in the Northeast Census region, under a floor of 15 tractsn95 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationthe top tenth of counties with a residual, ranked by mean residualPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas against 17%17% percent of countiesEstimandshare of all counties with a residual that are in the Northeast Census region, under a floor of 15 tractsn944 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with at least 15 tracts in the modelPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas. The Midwestern part of the top tenth is therefore made of counties with few tracts, and the largest counties above the prediction are the ones near New York.

Table 2. Counties below the prediction cluster in the South, and the largest counties above it lie around New York

Counties that gained many college-educated adults after the 1990s have high predictors for children who grew up there earlier, and they would sit below the line for that reason alone. The staged data hold no census measures from before 2019, so the chapter cannot test that explanation.

Older housing and fewer smokers mark the counties above the prediction

Table 3 compares the tenth of counties with the largest residuals, home to 18.1 million18.1 million residentsEstimandsum of ACS tract population over the tracts of the groupWeightsnone (full count)Populationresidents of the tracts in the top tenth of counties by mean residualPeriodACS 2019 to 2023SourceAmerican Community Survey people, with the tenth with the smallest, home to 17.2 million17.2 million residentsEstimandsum of ACS tract population over the tracts of the groupWeightsnone (full count)Populationresidents of the tracts in the bottom tenth of counties by mean residualPeriodACS 2019 to 2023SourceAmerican Community Survey people. The table under the figure gives each top minus bottom difference with an interval from draws shared by the two groups. Five differences have intervals that exclude zero. Housing built before 1960 makes up 38% (95% CI 28% to 47%)38% percent of housing units built before 1960Estimandpopulation-weighted mean over the tracts of the group, county-bootstrap interval; the groups are fixed before the drawsInterval95% CI 28% to 47%n4,512 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of the tracts in the top tenth of counties by mean residualPeriodEJScreen 2024 release (ACS 2018 to 2022)SourceEPA EJScreen of housing units in the top tenth and 18% (95% CI 15% to 22%)18% percent of housing units built before 1960Estimandpopulation-weighted mean over the tracts of the group, county-bootstrap interval; the groups are fixed before the drawsInterval95% CI 15% to 22%n4,207 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of the tracts in the bottom tenth of counties by mean residualPeriodEJScreen 2024 release (ACS 2018 to 2022)SourceEPA EJScreen in the bottom tenth, a difference of +20.1 (95% CI 9.8 to 29.2)+20.1 percentage points of housing units built before 1960Estimandtop-tenth mean minus bottom-tenth mean, population-weighted over tracts, interval from a county bootstrap with the same draws for both groups; the groups are fixed before the drawsInterval95% CI 9.8 to 29.2n8,719 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of the tracts in the top and bottom tenths of counties by mean residualPeriodEJScreen 2024 release (ACS 2018 to 2022)SourceEPA EJScreen points.

The smoking share of adults is 13.5% (95% CI 12.6% to 14.8%)13.5% percent of adults who currently smokeEstimandpopulation-weighted mean over the tracts of the group, county-bootstrap interval; the groups are fixed before the drawsInterval95% CI 12.6% to 14.8%n4,512 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of the tracts in the top tenth of counties by mean residualPeriodPLACES 2024 release (BRFSS 2022)SourceCDC PLACES in the top tenth and 15.9% (95% CI 15.2% to 16.6%)15.9% percent of adults who currently smokeEstimandpopulation-weighted mean over the tracts of the group, county-bootstrap interval; the groups are fixed before the drawsInterval95% CI 15.2% to 16.6%n4,207 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of the tracts in the bottom tenth of counties by mean residualPeriodPLACES 2024 release (BRFSS 2022)SourceCDC PLACES in the bottom tenth, a difference of −2.4 (95% CI −3.5 to −0.9)−2.4 percentage points of adults who currently smoke (crude prevalence)Estimandtop-tenth mean minus bottom-tenth mean, population-weighted over tracts, interval from a county bootstrap with the same draws for both groups; the groups are fixed before the drawsInterval95% CI −3.5 to −0.9n8,719 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of the tracts in the top and bottom tenths of counties by mean residualPeriodPLACES 2024 release (BRFSS 2022)SourceCDC PLACES points. The Hispanic share differs by +5.2 (95% CI 0.7 to 9.3)+5.2 percentage points of residents who are HispanicEstimandtop-tenth mean minus bottom-tenth mean, population-weighted over tracts, interval from a county bootstrap with the same draws for both groups; the groups are fixed before the drawsInterval95% CI 0.7 to 9.3n8,719 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of the tracts in the top and bottom tenths of counties by mean residualPeriodACS 2019 to 2023SourceAmerican Community Survey points and the poverty rate by −1.9 (95% CI −3.4 to −0.2)−1.9 percentage points of residents below the poverty lineEstimandtop-tenth mean minus bottom-tenth mean, population-weighted over tracts, interval from a county bootstrap with the same draws for both groups; the groups are fixed before the drawsInterval95% CI −3.4 to −0.2n8,719 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of the tracts in the top and bottom tenths of counties by mean residualPeriodACS 2019 to 2023SourceAmerican Community Survey points.

The average resident of the top tenth lives at 9,090 (95% CI 2,838 to 18,233)9,090 residents per square mile of landEstimandpopulation-weighted mean over the tracts of the group, county-bootstrap interval; the groups are fixed before the drawsInterval95% CI 2,838 to 18,233n4,512 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of the tracts in the top tenth of counties by mean residualPeriodACS 2019 to 2023 population over 2020 census land areaSourceAmerican Community Survey people per square mile, against 2,286 (95% CI 1,149 to 3,952)2,286 residents per square mile of landEstimandpopulation-weighted mean over the tracts of the group, county-bootstrap interval; the groups are fixed before the drawsInterval95% CI 1,149 to 3,952n4,207 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of the tracts in the bottom tenth of counties by mean residualPeriodACS 2019 to 2023 population over 2020 census land areaSourceAmerican Community Survey in the bottom tenth, a difference of +6,803 (95% CI 97 to 15,794)+6,803 residents per square mile of landEstimandtop-tenth mean minus bottom-tenth mean, population-weighted over tracts, interval from a county bootstrap with the same draws for both groups; the groups are fixed before the drawsInterval95% CI 97 to 15,794n8,719 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of the tracts in the top and bottom tenths of counties by mean residualPeriodACS 2019 to 2023 population over 2020 census land areaSourceAmerican Community Survey, whose lower limit is close to zero. The differences in the Black share, in ownership and in college include zero.

Table 3. Counties in the top tenth by residual have more pre-1960 housing, a larger Hispanic share, less poverty and fewer smokers than the bottom tenth, and the differences in the Black share, ownership and college include zero

The same five measures account for 44.2% (95% CI 42.0% to 46.5%)44.2% percent of the variance of tract life expectancyEstimandR-squared of the same five-measure, population-weighted fit with tract life expectancy at birth as the outcome, county-bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 42.0% to 46.5%n77,746 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationnon-institutional 2020 tracts in the mobility model (a mobility estimate and all five predictors) that also have a life expectancy estimatePerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceUSALEEP life expectancy of the variance of tract life expectancy at birthLife expectancy at birthThe average number of years a newborn would live if death rates at every age stayed as they were in the period measured. It summarizes the death rates of a period and is not a forecast for any child. for deaths in 2010 to 2015. County residuals for the two outcomes move together. Across counties, the residual of mobility correlates +0.39 (95% CI 0.27 to 0.51)+0.39 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation across counties of the county mean residual of mobility with the county mean residual of life expectancy, weighted by county population, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI 0.27 to 0.51n1,529 countiesWeightsACS 2019-2023 county populationPopulationcounties with at least 8 tracts in each of the two modelsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); predictors ACS 2019 to 2023; mobility for children born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceUSALEEP life expectancy with the residual of life expectancy. Counties above the prediction for children raised in the 1980s therefore tend to be above it for the life expectancy of residents in 2010 to 2015. What the five measures leave out is partly shared between the two outcomes, and these data do not say what it is.

Net income moved toward the South in filing years 2022 and 2023

The Internal Revenue Service matches the individual returns filed in 2022 with those filed in 2023 on the filer's taxpayer identification number. It assigns each return a county from the full ZIP code on it and counts a return as a migrant when the county differs between the two filings.[2] The unit is the filer, usually a household, and not the person. People who do not file are missing, and the address on a return is a mailing address. Arrivals include moves from abroad and departures include moves abroad. Arriving returns equal 5.6%5.6% percent of returns filed for tax year 2022Estimandreturns that arrived in a county from another county or from abroad, as a share of all returns filedWeightsnone (full counts of returns)Populationindividual income tax returns filed for tax year 2022Periodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration dataNoteArriving returns are summed over the counties with an arrivals figure; filed returns are the IRS SOI county totals for tax year 2022. of the returns filed for tax year 2022. Adjusted gross income is the amount on the 2023 return, and net income is arriving minus leaving.

Of the 3,0863,086 countiesEstimandcount of counties with a net figureWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties and county equivalents with both directions of the IRS flow publishedPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration data counties with both directions published, 1,7191,719 countiesEstimandcounties where arriving adjusted gross income exceeds leavingWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties and county equivalents with both directions of the IRS flow publishedPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration data gained net income and 1,3671,367 countiesEstimandcounties where leaving adjusted gross income exceeds arrivingWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties and county equivalents with both directions of the IRS flow publishedPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration data lost it, and the gaining counties together received 71.671.6 billions of dollars of adjusted gross incomeEstimandsum of net adjusted gross income (arriving minus leaving) over the counties that gainedWeightsnone (full counts of returns)Populationcounties and county equivalents with both directions of the IRS flow published, gaining counties onlyPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration dataNoteDollars are adjusted gross income on the 2023 return, converted from thousands. billion dollars net (Table 4).

Among counties of 50,00050,000 residentsEstimandcounty size above which counties are named in the migration text (inclusion rule)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)PopulationcountiesPeriodACS 2019 to 2023SourceAmerican Community Survey residents or more, San Francisco lost the most per resident, 2,4882,488 dollars of net adjusted gross income lost per residentEstimandlargest net loss per resident (leaving minus arriving adjusted gross income over ACS population) among those counties: San Francisco, CAn998 countiesWeightsnone (a single county)Populationcounties with at least 50,000 residents and a net figurePeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration data dollars, and Collier County, Florida, gained the most, 5,7935,793 dollars of net adjusted gross income gained per residentEstimandlargest net gain per resident (arriving minus leaving adjusted gross income over ACS population) among those counties: Collier, FLn998 countiesWeightsnone (a single county)Populationcounties with at least 50,000 residents and a net figurePeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration data dollars.

Pooled by Census region, net income per resident was 270 (95% CI 22 to 528)270 dollars of net adjusted gross income per resident, positive for a gainEstimandnet adjusted gross income summed over the region's counties divided by ACS population, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI 22 to 528n1,411 countiesWeightsACS 2019-2023 county populationPopulationresidents of the South Census regionPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration data dollars in the South, −332 (95% CI −475 to −54)−332 dollars of net adjusted gross income per resident, positive for a gainEstimandnet adjusted gross income summed over the region's counties divided by ACS population, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −475 to −54n217 countiesWeightsACS 2019-2023 county populationPopulationresidents of the Northeast Census regionPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration data in the Northeast and −172 (95% CI −296 to −60)−172 dollars of net adjusted gross income per resident, positive for a gainEstimandnet adjusted gross income summed over the region's counties divided by ACS population, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −296 to −60n1,030 countiesWeightsACS 2019-2023 county populationPopulationresidents of the Midwest Census regionPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration data in the Midwest. The interval for the West includes zero.

Table 4. Net adjusted gross income was positive in 1,719 counties and negative in 1,367, with the largest losses per resident in San Francisco and Boston's Suffolk County and the largest gains in Florida

Net migration is lower where childhood mobility is higher

Table 5 sets each county's net migration rate, arriving minus leaving returns per thousand returns filed, against the Atlas mobility rank of children raised there. Across 3,0863,086 countiesEstimandcount of counties in the scatterWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties with a net migration rate and a mobility estimatePeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration data counties the correlation is −0.19 (95% CI −0.31 to −0.02)−0.19 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation across counties of the net migration rate with the county upward-mobility rank, weighted by county population, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −0.31 to −0.02n3,086 countiesWeightsACS 2019-2023 county populationPopulationcounties with a net migration rate and a upward-mobility rankPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); mobility for children born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas when each county counts in proportion to its population and −0.23 (95% CI −0.33 to −0.10)−0.23 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation across counties of the net migration rate with the county upward-mobility rank, each county counted once, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −0.33 to −0.10n3,086 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with a net migration rate and a upward-mobility rankPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); mobility for children born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas when each counts once. The slope of the fitted line is −0.39 (95% CI −0.68 to −0.05)−0.39 net migrating returns per 1,000 returns filed, per percentile point of upward mobilityEstimandslope of the net migration rate on the county mobility rank, weighted by county population, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −0.68 to −0.05n3,086 countiesWeightsACS 2019-2023 county populationPopulationcounties with a net migration rate and a mobility estimatePeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); mobility for children born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas returns per thousand for each percentile point of the mobility rank.

The sign is the same against life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, −0.25 (95% CI −0.37 to −0.09)−0.25 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation across counties of the net migration rate with the county life expectancy, weighted by county population, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −0.37 to −0.09n3,075 countiesWeightsACS 2019-2023 county populationPopulationcounties with a net migration rate and a life expectancyPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015SourceUSALEEP life expectancy weighted and −0.13 (95% CI −0.23 to −0.01)−0.13 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation across counties of the net migration rate with the county life expectancy, each county counted once, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −0.23 to −0.01n3,075 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with a net migration rate and a life expectancyPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015SourceUSALEEP life expectancy unweighted. Counties where children from low-income families rose further and adults lived longer gained fewer filers.

The tenths show where the association sits. The two tenths highest on mobility had net rates of −5.2 (95% CI −7.9 to −1.6)−5.2 net migrating returns per 1,000 returns filedEstimandnet migrating returns summed over the tenth's counties, divided by returns filed for tax year 2022 and multiplied by 1,000, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −7.9 to −1.6n309 countiesWeightsnone (counts of returns)Populationcounties in the ninth tenth by upward-mobility rankPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration dataNoteTenths hold equal numbers of counties. and −3.6 (95% CI −4.7 to −1.9)−3.6 net migrating returns per 1,000 returns filedEstimandnet migrating returns summed over the tenth's counties, divided by returns filed for tax year 2022 and multiplied by 1,000, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −4.7 to −1.9n309 countiesWeightsnone (counts of returns)Populationcounties in the tenth tenth by upward-mobility rankPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration dataNoteTenths hold equal numbers of counties. returns per thousand, with intervals below zero. The lowest tenths gained in the point estimates, +0.9 (95% CI −2.7 to 3.6)+0.9 net migrating returns per 1,000 returns filedEstimandnet migrating returns summed over the tenth's counties, divided by returns filed for tax year 2022 and multiplied by 1,000, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −2.7 to 3.6n308 countiesWeightsnone (counts of returns)Populationcounties in the first tenth by upward-mobility rankPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration dataNoteTenths hold equal numbers of counties. and +3.6 (95% CI −0.7 to 7.3)+3.6 net migrating returns per 1,000 returns filedEstimandnet migrating returns summed over the tenth's counties, divided by returns filed for tax year 2022 and multiplied by 1,000, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −0.7 to 7.3n309 countiesWeightsnone (counts of returns)Populationcounties in the second tenth by upward-mobility rankPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration dataNoteTenths hold equal numbers of counties., but their intervals include zero.

Deprivation gives a less consistent picture, since the correlation is +0.19 (95% CI −0.05 to 0.34)+0.19 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation across counties of the net migration rate with the county Area Deprivation Index rank, weighted by county population, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −0.05 to 0.34n3,080 countiesWeightsACS 2019-2023 county populationPopulationcounties with a net migration rate and a Area Deprivation Index rankPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); ADI 2023 releaseSourceArea Deprivation Index weighted and −0.19 (95% CI −0.28 to −0.09)−0.19 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation across counties of the net migration rate with the county Area Deprivation Index rank, each county counted once, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −0.28 to −0.09n3,080 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with a net migration rate and a Area Deprivation Index rankPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); ADI 2023 releaseSourceArea Deprivation Index unweighted. The most deprived tenth of counties had a net rate of −4.5 (95% CI −6.7 to −2.3)−4.5 net migrating returns per 1,000 returns filedEstimandnet migrating returns summed over the tenth's counties, divided by returns filed for tax year 2022 and multiplied by 1,000, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −6.7 to −2.3n308 countiesWeightsnone (counts of returns)Populationcounties in the tenth tenth by Area Deprivation Index rankPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration dataNoteTenths hold equal numbers of counties. returns per thousand, the least deprived tenth had −2.4 (95% CI −4.6 to 1.5)−2.4 net migrating returns per 1,000 returns filedEstimandnet migrating returns summed over the tenth's counties, divided by returns filed for tax year 2022 and multiplied by 1,000, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −4.6 to 1.5n308 countiesWeightsnone (counts of returns)Populationcounties in the first tenth by Area Deprivation Index rankPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration dataNoteTenths hold equal numbers of counties., and the second least deprived had +2.6 (95% CI −0.1 to 5.1)+2.6 net migrating returns per 1,000 returns filedEstimandnet migrating returns summed over the tenth's counties, divided by returns filed for tax year 2022 and multiplied by 1,000, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −0.1 to 5.1n308 countiesWeightsnone (counts of returns)Populationcounties in the second tenth by Area Deprivation Index rankPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration dataNoteTenths hold equal numbers of counties.. Net out-migration of filers therefore shows at the most deprivedArea Deprivation Index (ADI)A score that ranks neighborhoods by income, education, employment and housing conditions drawn from the American Community Survey. In this book a higher national percentile means a more deprived neighborhood. end with an interval below zero and at the least deprived end only as a point estimate.

Table 5. Net migration of tax filers is lower in counties with higher childhood mobility, a population-weighted correlation of −0.19, and the two highest tenths by mobility lost filers on net

The county residual from the model moves with net migration more strongly than mobility itself does. Across the counties with a residual, the correlation of the residual with the net migration rate is −0.44 (95% CI −0.57 to −0.28)−0.44 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation across counties of the county mean residual of mobility with the net migration rate, weighted by county population, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −0.57 to −0.28n1,576 countiesWeightsACS 2019-2023 county populationPopulationcounties with a residual and a net migration ratePeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); mobility for children born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceIRS migration data weighted and −0.39 (95% CI −0.49 to −0.27)−0.39 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation across counties of the county mean residual of mobility with the net migration rate, each county counted once, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −0.49 to −0.27n1,576 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with a residual and a net migration ratePeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); mobility for children born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceIRS migration data counting each county once. Part of that link is built in by timing. The predictors describe 2019 to 2023, after many movers had arrived, so a county that gained college-educated residents has high predictors and, if its children's outcomes predate those residents, a negative residual. The data cannot separate that mechanical link from any other.

Home values and net income per resident

Table 6 plots net income per resident against county home value. Across 3,0843,084 countiesEstimandcount of counties in the scatterWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties with a home value and a net figurePeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); county home values from ACS 2019 to 2023 tract median home valuesSourceIRS migration data counties the correlation is −0.30 (95% CI −0.47 to 0.02)−0.30 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation across counties of net adjusted gross income per resident with the county home value, weighted by county population, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −0.47 to 0.02n3,084 countiesWeightsACS 2019-2023 county populationPopulationcounties with a home value and a net figurePeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); county home values from ACS 2019 to 2023 tract median home valuesSourceIRS migration dataNoteThe county home value is the mean of the ACS 2019-2023 median home values of the county's tracts, weighted by ACS 2019-2023 tract population; Connecticut tracts are assigned to the legacy counties through the tract crosswalk. A tract at the Census top code of 2,000,001 dollars enters at that value. weighted by population and +0.18 (95% CI 0.04 to 0.33)+0.18 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation across counties of net adjusted gross income per resident with the county home value, each county counted once, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI 0.04 to 0.33n3,084 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with a home value and a net figurePeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); county home values from ACS 2019 to 2023 tract median home valuesSourceIRS migration data counting each county once. The first interval includes zero and the second lies above zero. The two differ in sign because the weighted version counts each county in proportion to its population.

Net income per resident did not decline steadily with home value. In the lowest tenth of counties by home value, net income was −109 (95% CI −142 to −70)−109 dollars of net adjusted gross income per resident, negative for a lossEstimandnet adjusted gross income summed over the group's counties divided by ACS population, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −142 to −70n308 countiesWeightsACS 2019-2023 county populationPopulationresidents of the bottom tenth of counties by home valuePeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); county home values from ACS 2019 to 2023 tract median home valuesSourceIRS migration dataNoteTenths hold equal numbers of counties. dollars per resident, the only tenth with an interval entirely below zero. In the top tenth it was −103 (95% CI −298 to 238)−103 dollars of net adjusted gross income per resident, negative for a lossEstimandnet adjusted gross income summed over the group's counties divided by ACS population, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −298 to 238n309 countiesWeightsACS 2019-2023 county populationPopulationresidents of the top tenth of counties by home valuePeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); county home values from ACS 2019 to 2023 tract median home valuesSourceIRS migration dataNoteTenths hold equal numbers of counties., and the ninth tenth received 103 (95% CI −129 to 382)103 dollars of net adjusted gross income per resident, negative for a lossEstimandnet adjusted gross income summed over the group's counties divided by ACS population, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −129 to 382n308 countiesWeightsACS 2019-2023 county populationPopulationresidents of the ninth tenth of counties by home valuePeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); county home values from ACS 2019 to 2023 tract median home valuesSourceIRS migration dataNoteTenths hold equal numbers of counties.. Both of those intervals include zero. The point estimates are lowest in the cheapest tenth and the most expensive tenth and highest in the ninth. The relation of life expectancy to home value, and the years of life that go with each doubling of it, are in Chapter 5.2, Home value, income and redlining.

Table 6. Net income per resident does not fall steadily with county home value, with a population-weighted correlation of −0.30 and +0.18 when each county counts once

Pooled by deprivation, arriving and leaving returns report similar incomes

One account of these flows is income sorting, in which richer filers replace poorer ones. Table 7 compares the average adjusted gross income of arriving and leaving returns, pooled over tenths of counties by deprivation. Both averages fall by nearly the same amount from the least to the most deprived tenth. The arriving minus leaving gap runs from −2,110−2,110 dollars of adjusted gross income per return, arriving minus leavingEstimandlowest tenth value of the arriving minus leaving average adjusted gross income per returnWeightsnone (counts of returns)Populationthe tenth of counties with the lowest gapPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration data to 2,4862,486 dollars of adjusted gross income per return, arriving minus leavingEstimandhighest tenth value of the arriving minus leaving average adjusted gross income per returnWeightsnone (counts of returns)Populationthe tenth of counties with the highest gapPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration data dollars across the tenths. Its interval includes zero in 99 tenths of countiesEstimandtenths whose 95% interval for the arriving minus leaving gap includes zeroWeightsnone (full count)Populationtenths of counties by Area Deprivation Index rankPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration data of the ten, among them the most deprived tenth, where the gap is −337 (95% CI −1126 to 559)−337 dollars of adjusted gross income per return, arriving minus leavingEstimandsummed adjusted gross income of arriving returns over summed arriving returns, minus the same for leaving returns, bootstrap interval over states (shared draws)Interval95% CI −1126 to 559n308 countiesWeightsnone (counts of returns)Populationthe most deprived tenth of counties with both directions publishedPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); ADI 2023 releaseSourceIRS migration data dollars. Only the ninth tenth has arriving returns that report more than leaving returns by an amount the interval separates from zero.

Counties taken one by one give a different answer from pooling. The correlation of the county gap with deprivation is +0.02 (95% CI −0.13 to 0.13)+0.02 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation across counties of the arriving minus leaving average adjusted gross income per return with the Area Deprivation Index rank, weighted by county population, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −0.13 to 0.13n3,080 countiesWeightsACS 2019-2023 county populationPopulationcounties with both directions of the IRS flow published and an Area Deprivation Index rankPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); ADI 2023 releaseSourceIRS migration data weighted by population, a value near zero, and −0.21 (95% CI −0.29 to −0.14)−0.21 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation across counties of the arriving minus leaving average adjusted gross income per return with the Area Deprivation Index rank, each county counted once, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −0.29 to −0.14n3,080 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with both directions of the IRS flow published and an Area Deprivation Index rankPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022); ADI 2023 releaseSourceIRS migration data counting each county once. With each county counted once, arriving returns report less than leaving returns where deprivation is higher. In the median county, arriving returns report 54,902 (95% CI 52,722 to 57,194)54,902 dollars of adjusted gross income per return, arriving returnsEstimandmedian across counties of the county's average adjusted gross income per return (arriving returns), bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI 52,722 to 57,194n3,086 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with both directions of the IRS flow publishedPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration dataNoteAdjusted gross income is on the 2023 return. dollars of income and leaving returns 52,444 (95% CI 50,430 to 54,356)52,444 dollars of adjusted gross income per return, leaving returnsEstimandmedian across counties of the county's average adjusted gross income per return (leaving returns), bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI 50,430 to 54,356n3,086 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with both directions of the IRS flow publishedPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration dataNoteAdjusted gross income is on the 2023 return., a median gap of 2,514 (95% CI 1,466 to 3,433)2,514 dollars of adjusted gross income per return, arriving minus leavingEstimandmedian across counties of the county's average adjusted gross income per return (arriving minus leaving), bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI 1,466 to 3,433n3,086 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationcounties with both directions of the IRS flow publishedPeriodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration dataNoteAdjusted gross income is on the 2023 return. dollars. Similar incomes therefore hold for the pooled tenths and the population-weighted correlation, and not for the median county or the unweighted correlation. The averages describe returns, and they hide who within a county moves.

Table 7. In pooled tenths of counties by deprivation, returns arriving report about the same income as returns leaving, though the median county's arriving returns report 2,514 dollars more

What these data cannot show

None of the residuals measures what a place does for a child. A county residual combines noise in the Atlas estimates, measures the model omits and the gap between the decades of the outcome and of the predictors. The standard error of a county residual leaves out errors that all of a county's tracts share. The floor of 88 tractsEstimandminimum number of tracts in the model for a county to have a residual (inclusion rule)Weightsnone (inclusion rule)PopulationcountiesPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas tracts excludes 1,5671,567 countiesEstimandmap units without a county residual, counting those with fewer tracts than the floor and those with no tract in the modelWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties and county equivalents on the mapPeriodchildren born 1978 to 1983, household income measured in 2014 to 2015; predictors ACS 2019 to 2023SourceOpportunity Atlas map units, so the map says nothing about them. The traits in Table 3 describe counties selected on the residual, and their intervals treat the two groups as fixed.

The migration figures cover one pair of filing years. Internal migration in the United States has declined since the 1980s.[6] Arriving returns equal only 5.6%5.6% percent of returns filed for tax year 2022Estimandreturns that arrived in a county from another county or from abroad, as a share of all returns filedWeightsnone (full counts of returns)Populationindividual income tax returns filed for tax year 2022Periodreturns filed in 2022 matched with returns filed in 2023 (tax years 2021 and 2022)SourceIRS migration dataNoteArriving returns are summed over the counties with an arrivals figure; filed returns are the IRS SOI county totals for tax year 2022. of the returns filed here, so most filers in every county did not change county. The two filings follow the pandemic years, in which demand for housing shifted from the centers of large cities toward their outskirts,[7] and one pair of years may not describe other periods. The unit is the county, so the correlations compare places and say nothing about why any household moved. Several of them change sign with the weighting. Connecticut's flows are published by planning region and are spread over its legacy counties by population, which is approximate. A county's home value is the mean of its tracts' median home values, weighted by population, and a tract median at the Census top code enters at the code. Puerto Rico is left out of the model and the maps.

The two halves of the chapter do not measure the same people. The residual scores the adult outcomes of children raised in the 1980s and 1990s, and the migration data score the movements of filers in 2022 and 2023. Reading one against the other compares where two different populations sit on the same map. The adjusted gross income of a return is the amount on the 2023 return, for calendar 2022, and a move between the two filings can come after part or all of that income was earned.