{
  "alt": "County map of the United States on a brown-to-teal scale of the mean residual of upward mobility. Brown counties cluster across the Southeast, and teal counties include those around New York City and parts of the Midwest. Gray counties, which have too few tracts in the model, make up most of the counties in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas, are common elsewhere in the Midwest, the South and the West, and are rare in the Northeast.",
  "caption": "Teal counties lie above the prediction and brown counties below it. The South sits toward the low end of the key, and the largest counties toward the high end are in the New York area. Among smaller counties the high end is in the Midwest under the floor used here and moves toward the Northeast under a higher floor. The map plots the mean tract residual of each of {fact:n_resid_counties} counties, and {fact:n_resid_beyond} of them lie beyond the {fact:resid_key} points at either end of the key. The {fact:n_resid_nodata} gray counties have fewer tracts than the floor or none in the model; tooltips give a 95% interval from the spread of tract residuals within the county.",
  "data": [],
  "id": "residual_map",
  "notes": [
    "A county is mapped when at least {fact:min_tracts_resid} of its tracts are in the model, which covers {fact:resid_pop_share} of the model's population. Each gray county gives its reason in the tooltip.",
    "The interval in the tooltip treats a county's tracts as independent draws, so it leaves out errors that all tracts of a county share. The typical standard error is {fact:resid_se_median} percentile points.",
    "Connecticut is drawn as its eight legacy counties; its tracts are assigned to them exactly. Alaska is drawn. Puerto Rico is left out of the model and is not drawn. Ranks are percentiles of the national distribution of household income for children born in 1978 to 1983, measured in 2014 to 2015. The Opportunity Atlas adds noise to its estimates to protect privacy and the staged values are never clipped. The file on 2020 tracts is interpolated from 2010 tracts by land area."
  ],
  "source": "Opportunity Atlas tract outcomes, 1978-1983 birth cohorts, and ACS 2019-2023; population-weighted county means of model residuals, modeled estimates",
  "spec": {
    "fips": "fips",
    "legendLabel": "Mean residual of upward mobility (percentile points, actual minus predicted)",
    "payload": "residual_map.json",
    "scale": {
      "domain": [
        -5,
        0,
        5
      ],
      "ends": [
        "Below the prediction",
        "Above the prediction"
      ],
      "palette": "div",
      "type": "diverging"
    },
    "tooltipKeys": [
      "name",
      "kfr",
      "tracts",
      "conf_low",
      "conf_high"
    ],
    "tooltipLabels": {
      "conf_high": "Upper limit of the 95% interval",
      "conf_low": "Lower limit of the 95% interval",
      "kfr": "Mean actual rank",
      "name": "County",
      "tracts": "Tracts in the model"
    },
    "value": "resid",
    "valueFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    }
  },
  "subtitle": "Population-weighted mean residual of tract upward mobility (actual minus predicted rank, percentile points) by county, counties with at least {fact:min_tracts_resid} tracts in the model",
  "title": "Counties below the prediction cluster in the South, and the largest counties above it lie around New York",
  "type": "county-map",
  "width": "full"
}