Gun homicide and the causes of early death

Outside New York City, the tract clusters with the highest firearm homicide rates hold 50%50% percent of implied firearm homicide deathsEstimandthreshold that defines the concentration statistic (definitional, not an estimate)Weightsnone (definition)Populationall deaths implied by the cluster ratesPeriodannual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averagedSourceCDC injury and violence mapping of the deaths that CDC's rates imply for 2022 to 2024 and 9.5%9.5% percent of residentsEstimandshare of residents in the highest-rate clusters that together hold half of implied firearm homicide deaths; clusters ranked by mean annual rate; county bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 8.3% to 10.8%n17,814 tract clustersWeightsACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths)Populationresidents of tract clusters outside New York City with a published rate in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024Periodannual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averagedSourceCDC injury and violence mapping of residents. At the other end of the same ranking, 30.7% (95% CI 29.0% to 32.6%)30.7% percent of residentsEstimandshare of residents in clusters with zero recorded deaths in each of the three years (a rate of 0 from a count of 0); county bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 29.0% to 32.6%n17,814 tract clustersWeightsACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths)Populationresidents of tract clusters outside New York City with a published rate in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024Periodannual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averagedSourceCDC injury and violence mapping of residents live in clusters with no recorded firearm homicide in any year from 2022 to 2024. A rate for a state, a county or a city averages over both groups of residents. This essay follows the deaths down to the neighborhood, then into Cook County, which holds Chicago and its suburbs, and then out to the other kinds of early death that counties report.

Firearm homicide deaths concentrate in the highest-rate clusters

CDC's injury and violence dashboard publishes death rates for census tractsCensus tractA small area drawn by the Census Bureau to stand in for a neighborhood. Boundaries are redrawn after each decennial census., but not a rate for a single tract. It joins small neighboring tracts into clusters large enough to report a stable rate and repeats that rate on every tract in the cluster. The median tract belongs to a cluster of 55 tracts per clusterEstimandmedian, over tracts, of the number of tracts in the tract's clusterWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationtracts outside New York CityPeriodannual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averagedSourceCDC injury and violence mapping tracts. A cluster-year with a few deaths gets a modeled estimateModeled estimateA figure produced by a statistical model instead of a direct count or measurement, usually for small areas where direct data are thin, borrowing strength from surveys, neighboring areas or other data. Neighboring areas can share errors, so single extremes call for caution. with an interval, one with none gets a rate of zero, and one with many gets a direct rate. CDC withholds the rate when the model is unstable.

To draw the concentration curve, the chapter ranks clusters from the highest to the lowest mean annual rate for 2022 to 2024. It multiplies each rate by the cluster's residents to get implied deaths, then adds up residents and deaths down the ranking. If deaths were spread evenly across residents, the curve would follow the diagonal. The clusters that hold the highest-rate tenth of residents hold 51.3% (95% CI 48.1% to 54.4%)51.3% percent of implied firearm homicide deathsEstimandshare of deaths in the clusters that hold the highest-rate tenth of residents; county bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 48.1% to 54.4%n17,814 tract clustersWeightsACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths)Populationresidents of tract clusters outside New York City with a published rate in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024Periodannual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averagedSourceCDC injury and violence mapping of implied deaths. Averaging over a cluster can only lower measured concentration, so the curve is a lower bound for what block-level rates would show if CDC published them.

Figure 1

The tract clusters with the highest firearm homicide rates hold 50% of implied deaths and 9.5% of residents outside New York City

Cumulative share of implied firearm homicide deaths against cumulative share of residents, tract clusters ranked from the highest to the lowest mean annual rate, 2022 to 2024, outside New York City

Cumulative share of firearm homicide deaths (%)

Show data

Data for The tract clusters with the highest firearm homicide rates hold 50% of implied deaths and 9.5% of residents outside New York City

conf_high	conf_low	pct_residents	series	share_deaths
n/a	n/a	0	Firearm homicide deaths	0
15.02	12.36	1	Firearm homicide deaths	13.93
23.60	19.23	2	Firearm homicide deaths	21.70
29.75	24.60	3	Firearm homicide deaths	27.45
34.76	29.14	4	Firearm homicide deaths	32.20
39.03	33.12	5	Firearm homicide deaths	36.28
42.74	36.67	6	Firearm homicide deaths	39.89
46.09	39.89	7	Firearm homicide deaths	43.16
49.12	42.80	8	Firearm homicide deaths	46.10
51.87	45.55	9	Firearm homicide deaths	48.79
54.39	48.10	10	Firearm homicide deaths	51.31
56.71	50.48	11	Firearm homicide deaths	53.66
58.84	52.73	12	Firearm homicide deaths	55.87
60.89	54.85	13	Firearm homicide deaths	57.94
62.78	56.87	14	Firearm homicide deaths	59.89
64.60	58.77	15	Firearm homicide deaths	61.74
66.28	60.63	16	Firearm homicide deaths	63.49
67.85	62.36	17	Firearm homicide deaths	65.15
69.35	64.01	18	Firearm homicide deaths	66.73
70.79	65.59	19	Firearm homicide deaths	68.24
72.19	67.12	20	Firearm homicide deaths	69.68
73.50	68.57	21	Firearm homicide deaths	71.06
74.74	69.96	22	Firearm homicide deaths	72.38
75.92	71.31	23	Firearm homicide deaths	73.65
77.04	72.59	24	Firearm homicide deaths	74.85
78.11	73.83	25	Firearm homicide deaths	76.01
79.15	75.01	26	Firearm homicide deaths	77.12
80.16	76.16	27	Firearm homicide deaths	78.18
81.11	77.24	28	Firearm homicide deaths	79.21
82.04	78.29	29	Firearm homicide deaths	80.20
82.91	79.30	30	Firearm homicide deaths	81.16
83.78	80.28	31	Firearm homicide deaths	82.07
84.59	81.22	32	Firearm homicide deaths	82.96
85.42	82.13	33	Firearm homicide deaths	83.82
86.17	83.01	34	Firearm homicide deaths	84.65
86.92	83.87	35	Firearm homicide deaths	85.45
87.64	84.70	36	Firearm homicide deaths	86.22
88.31	85.50	37	Firearm homicide deaths	86.96
88.97	86.27	38	Firearm homicide deaths	87.68
89.60	87	39	Firearm homicide deaths	88.36
90.22	87.72	40	Firearm homicide deaths	89.02
90.81	88.41	41	Firearm homicide deaths	89.66
91.36	89.07	42	Firearm homicide deaths	90.27
91.90	89.71	43	Firearm homicide deaths	90.85
92.41	90.32	44	Firearm homicide deaths	91.41
92.91	90.90	45	Firearm homicide deaths	91.94
93.38	91.45	46	Firearm homicide deaths	92.45
93.84	91.99	47	Firearm homicide deaths	92.95
94.28	92.50	48	Firearm homicide deaths	93.42
94.71	93	49	Firearm homicide deaths	93.88
95.12	93.47	50	Firearm homicide deaths	94.32
95.52	93.93	51	Firearm homicide deaths	94.74
95.89	94.37	52	Firearm homicide deaths	95.15
96.26	94.79	53	Firearm homicide deaths	95.55
96.61	95.21	54	Firearm homicide deaths	95.93
96.95	95.60	55	Firearm homicide deaths	96.30
97.28	95.98	56	Firearm homicide deaths	96.66
97.59	96.36	57	Firearm homicide deaths	97
97.90	96.72	58	Firearm homicide deaths	97.33
98.19	97.06	59	Firearm homicide deaths	97.65
98.47	97.40	60	Firearm homicide deaths	97.96
98.75	97.71	61	Firearm homicide deaths	98.25
99	98.02	62	Firearm homicide deaths	98.52
99.23	98.32	63	Firearm homicide deaths	98.79
99.44	98.59	64	Firearm homicide deaths	99.04
99.64	98.85	65	Firearm homicide deaths	99.27
99.80	99.10	66	Firearm homicide deaths	99.48
99.95	99.32	67	Firearm homicide deaths	99.67
100	99.53	68	Firearm homicide deaths	99.84
100	99.72	69	Firearm homicide deaths	99.97
100	99.88	70	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	71	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	72	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	73	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	74	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	75	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	76	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	77	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	78	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	79	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	80	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	81	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	82	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	83	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	84	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	85	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	86	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	87	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	88	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	89	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	90	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	91	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	92	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	93	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	94	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	95	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	96	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	97	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	98	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	99	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	100	Firearm homicide deaths	100
n/a	n/a	0	Equal shares	0
n/a	n/a	1	Equal shares	1
n/a	n/a	2	Equal shares	2
n/a	n/a	3	Equal shares	3
n/a	n/a	4	Equal shares	4
n/a	n/a	5	Equal shares	5
n/a	n/a	6	Equal shares	6
n/a	n/a	7	Equal shares	7
n/a	n/a	8	Equal shares	8
n/a	n/a	9	Equal shares	9
n/a	n/a	10	Equal shares	10
n/a	n/a	11	Equal shares	11
n/a	n/a	12	Equal shares	12
n/a	n/a	13	Equal shares	13
n/a	n/a	14	Equal shares	14
n/a	n/a	15	Equal shares	15
n/a	n/a	16	Equal shares	16
n/a	n/a	17	Equal shares	17
n/a	n/a	18	Equal shares	18
n/a	n/a	19	Equal shares	19
n/a	n/a	20	Equal shares	20
n/a	n/a	21	Equal shares	21
n/a	n/a	22	Equal shares	22
n/a	n/a	23	Equal shares	23
n/a	n/a	24	Equal shares	24
n/a	n/a	25	Equal shares	25
n/a	n/a	26	Equal shares	26
n/a	n/a	27	Equal shares	27
n/a	n/a	28	Equal shares	28
n/a	n/a	29	Equal shares	29
n/a	n/a	30	Equal shares	30
n/a	n/a	31	Equal shares	31
n/a	n/a	32	Equal shares	32
n/a	n/a	33	Equal shares	33
n/a	n/a	34	Equal shares	34
n/a	n/a	35	Equal shares	35
n/a	n/a	36	Equal shares	36
n/a	n/a	37	Equal shares	37
n/a	n/a	38	Equal shares	38
n/a	n/a	39	Equal shares	39
n/a	n/a	40	Equal shares	40
n/a	n/a	41	Equal shares	41
n/a	n/a	42	Equal shares	42
n/a	n/a	43	Equal shares	43
n/a	n/a	44	Equal shares	44
n/a	n/a	45	Equal shares	45
n/a	n/a	46	Equal shares	46
n/a	n/a	47	Equal shares	47
n/a	n/a	48	Equal shares	48
n/a	n/a	49	Equal shares	49
n/a	n/a	50	Equal shares	50
n/a	n/a	51	Equal shares	51
n/a	n/a	52	Equal shares	52
n/a	n/a	53	Equal shares	53
n/a	n/a	54	Equal shares	54
n/a	n/a	55	Equal shares	55
n/a	n/a	56	Equal shares	56
n/a	n/a	57	Equal shares	57
n/a	n/a	58	Equal shares	58
n/a	n/a	59	Equal shares	59
n/a	n/a	60	Equal shares	60
n/a	n/a	61	Equal shares	61
n/a	n/a	62	Equal shares	62
n/a	n/a	63	Equal shares	63
n/a	n/a	64	Equal shares	64
n/a	n/a	65	Equal shares	65
n/a	n/a	66	Equal shares	66
n/a	n/a	67	Equal shares	67
n/a	n/a	68	Equal shares	68
n/a	n/a	69	Equal shares	69
n/a	n/a	70	Equal shares	70
n/a	n/a	71	Equal shares	71
n/a	n/a	72	Equal shares	72
n/a	n/a	73	Equal shares	73
n/a	n/a	74	Equal shares	74
n/a	n/a	75	Equal shares	75
n/a	n/a	76	Equal shares	76
n/a	n/a	77	Equal shares	77
n/a	n/a	78	Equal shares	78
n/a	n/a	79	Equal shares	79
n/a	n/a	80	Equal shares	80
n/a	n/a	81	Equal shares	81
n/a	n/a	82	Equal shares	82
n/a	n/a	83	Equal shares	83
n/a	n/a	84	Equal shares	84
n/a	n/a	85	Equal shares	85
n/a	n/a	86	Equal shares	86
n/a	n/a	87	Equal shares	87
n/a	n/a	88	Equal shares	88
n/a	n/a	89	Equal shares	89
n/a	n/a	90	Equal shares	90
n/a	n/a	91	Equal shares	91
n/a	n/a	92	Equal shares	92
n/a	n/a	93	Equal shares	93
n/a	n/a	94	Equal shares	94
n/a	n/a	95	Equal shares	95
n/a	n/a	96	Equal shares	96
n/a	n/a	97	Equal shares	97
n/a	n/a	98	Equal shares	98
n/a	n/a	99	Equal shares	99
n/a	n/a	100	Equal shares	100

How we know

The rates come from CDC's tract file for 2022, 2023 and 2024, and the data for 2024 are provisional. New York City is left out because the file records almost no deaths there. A cluster enters only if CDC publishes its rate in every year from 2022 to 2024, and CDC withholds more rates for 2024 than for 2022. Filling the withheld years from the count range CDC publishes for them puts the share of residents holding 50%50% percent of implied firearm homicide deathsEstimandthreshold that defines the concentration statistic (definitional, not an estimate)Weightsnone (definition)Populationall deaths implied by the cluster ratesPeriodannual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averagedSourceCDC injury and violence mapping of deaths between 8.9%8.9% percent of residentsEstimandsensitivity: share holding half of deaths when a withheld year takes the lowest, middle or highest deaths in its published range of 1 to 9; smallest of the threeWeightsACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths)Populationresidents of tract clusters outside New York City, withheld years filledPeriodannual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averagedSourceCDC injury and violence mapping and 10.2%10.2% percent of residentsEstimandsensitivity: share holding half of deaths when a withheld year takes the lowest, middle or highest deaths in its published range of 1 to 9; largest of the threeWeightsACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths)Populationresidents of tract clusters outside New York City, withheld years filledPeriodannual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averagedSourceCDC injury and violence mapping, so the result does not rest on that exclusion. The deaths implied by the cluster rates come to 78.6%78.6% percent of implied deathsEstimandimplied annual deaths (rate times ACS residents) from the cluster rates as a share of the county file's implied deaths for the same residents (county rate times the residents of the same clusters)WeightsACS 2019-2023 residentsPopulationtract clusters with a published rate and the residents of those clusters, in counties outside New York City with a county-file ratePeriodannual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averagedSourceCDC injury and violence mapping of what CDC's county file implies for the same counties, so the curve describes how deaths are distributed and not how many there are. The shortfall is uneven. Dropping the clusters of Essex, Suffolk, San Diego and Santa Clara counties, which the chapter flags for it, moves the share of residents holding 50%50% percent of implied firearm homicide deathsEstimandthreshold that defines the concentration statistic (definitional, not an estimate)Weightsnone (definition)Populationall deaths implied by the cluster ratesPeriodannual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averagedSourceCDC injury and violence mapping of deaths to 9.6%9.6% percent of residentsEstimandsensitivity: share holding half of implied deaths after dropping the clusters whose main county is undercounted; no intervalWeightsACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths)Populationresidents of tract clusters outside New York City with a published rate in every year, without the clusters of the 4 undercounted countiesPeriodannual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averagedSourceCDC injury and violence mapping. The curve's interval comes from resampling whole counties and leaves out the modeling error in CDC's rates. Redrawing every modeled rate from CDC's own interval shifts the estimate upward but keeps it inside the resampling interval. The report gives every estimate with its interval and sample size.

The mix of early deaths differs between the two ends of deprivation

Firearm homicide is one of several ways to die young, and the chapter compares the others at a coarser grain. County Health Rankings reports county death rates from National Center for Health Statistics records, pooled over windows that end in 2021. The chapter takes four kinds of death: drug overdose, suicide, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes. Adding their crude ratesCrude rateDeaths or births divided by the population, with no adjustment for age. A place with older residents has a higher crude death rate even if health at each age is the same., deaths per hundred thousand residents with no age adjustment, gives a toll, and each kind's share of that toll is its place in the mix. The four overlap a little, because a suicide by drug poisoning is counted as both an overdose and a suicide. The counties that publish all four rates hold 89.6%89.6% percent of county residentsEstimandshare of residents living in counties with all four rates publishedWeightscounty populationPopulationresidents of the 3143 counties in the filePeriodCounty Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021)SourceCounty Health Rankings of county residents. The chapter sorts them into fifths of residents by county rank on the Area Deprivation IndexArea Deprivation Index (ADI)A score that ranks neighborhoods by income, education, employment and housing conditions drawn from the American Community Survey. In this book a higher national percentile means a more deprived neighborhood..

The toll is 76 (95% CI 69 to 84)76 deaths per 100,000 residents per year, crude rates, four kinds of death summedEstimandsum of the population-weighted mean crude rates of overdose, suicide, homicide and motor-vehicle crash deaths; state-cluster bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 69 to 84n618 countiesWeightscounty populationPopulationresidents of counties in the most deprived fifth of residents among counties with all four rates publishedPeriodCounty Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021)SourceCounty Health Rankings deaths per hundred thousand residents a year in the most deprived fifth and 42 (95% CI 37 to 47)42 deaths per 100,000 residents per year, crude rates, four kinds of death summedEstimandsum of the population-weighted mean crude rates of overdose, suicide, homicide and motor-vehicle crash deaths; state-cluster bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 37 to 47n71 countiesWeightscounty populationPopulationresidents of counties in the least deprived fifth of residents among counties with all four rates publishedPeriodCounty Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021)SourceCounty Health Rankings in the least deprived fifth. Homicide is 8.8% (95% CI 5.9% to 10.2%)8.8% percent of the four-kind crude death rate (homicide)Estimandcrude rate of one kind of death as a share of the sum of the four means (overdose, suicide, homicide, motor-vehicle crash); state-cluster bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 5.9% to 10.2%n71 countiesWeightscounty populationPopulationresidents of counties in the least deprived fifth of residents among counties with all four rates publishedPeriodCounty Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021)SourceCounty Health Rankings of the toll in the least deprived fifth and 13.1% (95% CI 11.7% to 14.7%)13.1% percent of the four-kind crude death rate (homicide)Estimandcrude rate of one kind of death as a share of the sum of the four means (overdose, suicide, homicide, motor-vehicle crash); state-cluster bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 11.7% to 14.7%n618 countiesWeightscounty populationPopulationresidents of counties in the most deprived fifth of residents among counties with all four rates publishedPeriodCounty Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021)SourceCounty Health Rankings in the most deprived. From the least to the most deprived fifth, the overdose share changes by −7.4 percentage points (95% CI −15.5 percentage points to −1.3 percentage points)−7.4 percentage points percentage points of the four-kind crude death rate (overdose), most deprived fifth minus least deprived fifthEstimanddifference between the cause's share in the two fifths; state-cluster bootstrap interval from the same replicatesInterval95% CI −15.5 percentage points to −1.3 percentage pointsn689 countiesWeightscounty populationPopulationresidents of counties in the least and most deprived fifths of residents among counties with all four rates publishedPeriodCounty Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021)SourceCounty Health Rankings and the motor-vehicle share by +5.4 percentage points (95% CI 1.8 percentage points to 10.5 percentage points)+5.4 percentage points percentage points of the four-kind crude death rate (motor-vehicle), most deprived fifth minus least deprived fifthEstimanddifference between the cause's share in the two fifths; state-cluster bootstrap interval from the same replicatesInterval95% CI 1.8 percentage points to 10.5 percentage pointsn689 countiesWeightscounty populationPopulationresidents of counties in the least and most deprived fifths of residents among counties with all four rates publishedPeriodCounty Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021)SourceCounty Health Rankings. Suicide holds a similar share in the two end fifths. Across the fifths in between, the overdose and motor-vehicle shares do not follow a steady line, so the figure supports a comparison of the two ends and no more.

Figure 2

Overdose is 51.0% of the four-cause toll in the least deprived fifth of residents and 43.6% in the most, while motor-vehicle crashes go from 16.0% to 21.4%

Each kind of death's share of the sum of four crude death rates (overdose, suicide, homicide, motor-vehicle crash), by fifth of residents ranked by county deprivation, counties with all four rates published

Fifth of residents by county deprivation

Show data

Data for Overdose is 51.0% of the four-cause toll in the least deprived fifth of residents and 43.6% in the most, while motor-vehicle crashes go from 16.0% to 21.4%

cause	conf_high	conf_low	n_units	quintile	rate	share
Drug overdose	57.56	46.95	71	1 (least deprived)	21.58	50.97
Suicide	29.49	21.62	71	1 (least deprived)	10.23	24.16
Homicide	10.21	5.90	71	1 (least deprived)	3.74	8.83
Motor-vehicle crash	17.93	12.58	71	1 (least deprived)	6.79	16.03
Drug overdose	51.82	43.30	117	2	24.84	47.08
Suicide	28.86	22.59	117	2	13.46	25.51
Homicide	10.24	7.57	117	2	4.78	9.06
Motor-vehicle crash	20.68	15.55	117	2	9.68	18.35
Drug overdose	50.35	42.32	189	3	27.79	46.56
Suicide	27.08	21.39	189	3	14.26	23.88
Homicide	13.28	8.39	189	3	6.31	10.58
Motor-vehicle crash	21.38	16.21	189	3	11.32	18.97
Drug overdose	52.09	42.41	253	4	32.31	47.43
Suicide	24.50	20.81	253	4	15.36	22.54
Homicide	13.37	9.49	253	4	7.85	11.53
Motor-vehicle crash	20.92	15.90	253	4	12.60	18.50
Drug overdose	48.22	38.43	618	5 (most deprived)	33.30	43.58
Suicide	23.85	20.06	618	5 (most deprived)	16.71	21.87
Homicide	14.67	11.67	618	5 (most deprived)	10.05	13.15
Motor-vehicle crash	24.65	18.44	618	5 (most deprived)	16.36	21.41

The four rates cover different windows: 2019 to 2021 for overdose, 2017 to 2021 for suicide, and 2015 to 2021 for homicide and motor-vehicle crashes. A county without enough deaths from a cause to publish a rate is missing from the mix, so the mix speaks for the larger counties. The overdose maps and gradients are in Chapter 8.2, Overdose, alcohol and suicide.

In Cook County the highest-rate tenths are also the shortest-lived

The chapter ranks the residents of Cook County by the firearm homicide rate of their cluster and cuts the ranking into tenths. It counts only residents whose cluster has a rate in every year from 2022 to 2024. Life expectancy at birth, for deaths in 2010 to 2015, is 9.5 (95% CI 8.6 to 10.4)9.5 years of life expectancy at birthEstimanddifference of two population-weighted means of tract life expectancy; clusters resampled with replacementInterval95% CI 8.6 to 10.4n106 tract clustersWeights2020 tract population (ACS 2019-2023)Populationresidents of Cook County tract clusters with zero recorded deaths, minus residents in the highest-rate tenthPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015SourceUSALEEP life expectancy years shorter in the highest-rate tenth than in the clusters with no recorded firearm homicide. The estimates come from USALEEPUSALEEPThe U.S. Small-area Life Expectancy Estimates Project, a National Center for Health Statistics release of life expectancy at birth for most census tracts. It covers deaths from 2010 to 2015 only and has not been updated. and describe deaths a decade before the homicide rates.

Figure 3

In Cook County, residents of the highest-rate tenth of clusters have a life expectancy of 71.7 years (deaths in 2010 to 2015), 9.5 fewer than residents of clusters with no recorded deaths

Cook County residents in tenths by the firearm homicide rate of their tract cluster, 2022 to 2024: the rate, life expectancy at birth for deaths in 2010 to 2015, and the Area Deprivation Index

Firearm homicide rateLife expectancyDeprivation

Life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015 falls to 71.7 years in the highest tenth of Cook County clusters

Population-weighted mean life expectancy at birth, deaths in 2010 to 2015, by tenth of residents ranked by firearm homicide rate of the cluster, 2022 to 2024

Life expectancy at birth (years), deaths in 2010 to 2015

Tenth of Cook County residents, clusters ranked by firearm homicide rate (1 lowest, 10 highest)

Life expectancy is similar across the lowest three tenths and lowest in the top two tenths, whose intervals lie below those of the other eight. The line plots the population-weighted mean of tract values with a 95% interval from a bootstrap over clusters.

Show data

Data for In Cook County, residents of the highest-rate tenth of clusters have a life expectancy of 71.7 years (deaths in 2010 to 2015), 9.5 fewer than residents of clusters with no recorded deaths, Life expectancy

conf_high	conf_low	estimate	n_units	tenth
81.38	79.72	80.59	30	1
82.42	80.94	81.65	30	2
81.92	80.26	81.05	27	3
81.02	79.85	80.43	27	4
80.24	78.69	79.48	25	5
80.21	78.93	79.56	26	6
78.58	77.17	77.92	30	7
78.08	76.49	77.27	25	8
75.93	74.39	75.19	31	9
72.39	70.99	71.69	26	10

What the concentration shows and does not show

The comparison in Cook County shows that the same places have high firearm homicide rates and short lives. It does not say how much of the gap in life expectancy firearm homicide accounts for, and it describes places, not people. Chapter 8.5, Violence and the life-expectancy gap estimates how much of the national gap homicide accounts for. Among counties that publish all four rates, the toll from four kinds of early death is higher in the most deprived fifth of residents, and homicide holds a larger share of it there. None of these patterns says what would lower the rates. The randomized trial the chapter reports found that police-reported gun assaults fell around remediated vacant lots in Philadelphia compared with untreated lots, with the clearest reductions in neighborhoods below the poverty line.[1] The trial tested one low-cost change to the built environment in one city.

What this cannot tell you

CDC's cluster rates average over neighboring tracts and are partly modeled, so they say nothing about single tracts, blocks or the people who live in them. New York City is absent, and the clusters where CDC withholds a rate are left out. The rates in the mix of deaths are crude rates pooled over windows that end in 2021, so a county with an older population has a higher rate for the same risk. The Area Deprivation Index understates deprivation in high-cost cities.

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Go deeper

• The report: every estimate with its interval and sample size.
• Tables: every figure of the report as a table.

Reading paths that include this chapter:

• The argument in eight chapters
• Disadvantage as a dose
• Differences inside one county

Data sources

• CDC injury and violence mappingCDC firearm homicide rates for tract clusters, 2022 to 2024 (modeled estimates for 1 to 9 deaths, zero for none, direct rates for 10 or more), and the county file, 2021 to 2024Years: 2019-2024 for counties, 2022-2024 for tracts (data as of 2026-05-14) · Weights: ACS 2019-2023 residents of each cluster · License: Public domain (CDC, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services)
• American Community SurveyTotal population of 2020 tracts, 2019-2023Years: 2019-2023 (5-year) · Weights: none (full count) · License: Public domain (U.S. Census Bureau)
• USALEEP life expectancyLife expectancy at birth by tract, deaths in 2010 to 2015, 2020 tractsYears: 2010-2015 · Weights: 2020 tract population · License: Public domain (NCHS, CDC)
• Area Deprivation IndexArea Deprivation Index national rank, 2023, tracts rolled up to countiesYears: 2023 release (version 4.0.1; built on ACS 2019-2023) · Weights: 2019-2023 tract population · License: Free for non-commercial use; cite the Neighborhood Atlas and Kind and Buckingham
• County Health RankingsCounty death rates for premature mortality (age-adjusted), suicide (crude and age-adjusted), overdose, homicide, motor-vehicle crashes and firearms (crude), 2024 release, with race-specific homicide and suicide rates and rural shareYears: 2024 release · Weights: county population · License: CC BY 4.0 (University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute)

All data sources

References

1. Branas, Charles C.; South, Eugenia; Kondo, Michelle C.; Hohl, Bernadette C.; Bourgois, Philippe; Wiebe, Douglas J.; MacDonald, John M. (2018). Citywide cluster randomized trial to restore blighted vacant land and its effects on violence, crime, and fear. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(12): 2946-2951. doi:10.1073/pnas.1718503115

How to cite

@misc{singh2026gunhomicideandcausesofearlydeath,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Gun homicide and the causes of early death},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death},
  note = {In ZIP Code Destiny. Published 9 October 2026.}
}