{
  "alt": "Line chart with two lines, arriving and leaving returns, across ten tenths of counties by deprivation. Both lines fall from about the same high value at the least deprived tenth to about the same low value at the most deprived tenth, run almost on top of each other, and cross more than once, with overlapping bands.",
  "caption": "The two lines follow each other down the deprivation scale and cross. Each point pools the counties of a tenth (summed income over summed returns), with a 95% interval from a bootstrap over states; the arriving minus leaving gap has an interval that includes zero in {fact:gap_n_zero} tenths, among them the most deprived, where it is {fact:gap_d10}. Across counties, the gap shows no trend with deprivation when counties count in proportion to their population ({fact:r_gap_adi}) and falls with deprivation when each counts once ({fact:r_gap_adi_unw}).",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 101858,
      "conf_low": 89963,
      "decile": 1,
      "estimate": 96045,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns arriving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 100399,
      "conf_low": 88774,
      "decile": 1,
      "estimate": 95914,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns leaving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 81801,
      "conf_low": 71936,
      "decile": 2,
      "estimate": 77560,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns arriving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 81840,
      "conf_low": 69588,
      "decile": 2,
      "estimate": 75074,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns leaving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 67604,
      "conf_low": 62926,
      "decile": 3,
      "estimate": 65531,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns arriving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 70059,
      "conf_low": 62338,
      "decile": 3,
      "estimate": 66572,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns leaving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 61978,
      "conf_low": 58963,
      "decile": 4,
      "estimate": 60616,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns arriving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 65788,
      "conf_low": 59809,
      "decile": 4,
      "estimate": 62568,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns leaving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 57473,
      "conf_low": 53277,
      "decile": 5,
      "estimate": 55646,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns arriving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 60851,
      "conf_low": 54038,
      "decile": 5,
      "estimate": 57756,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns leaving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 54966,
      "conf_low": 51571,
      "decile": 6,
      "estimate": 53303,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns arriving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 55552,
      "conf_low": 51644,
      "decile": 6,
      "estimate": 53594,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns leaving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 52838,
      "conf_low": 49110,
      "decile": 7,
      "estimate": 50810,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns arriving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 51851,
      "conf_low": 48448,
      "decile": 7,
      "estimate": 50127,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns leaving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 51626,
      "conf_low": 47803,
      "decile": 8,
      "estimate": 49699,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns arriving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 49903,
      "conf_low": 46304,
      "decile": 8,
      "estimate": 48257,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns leaving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 47507,
      "conf_low": 44521,
      "decile": 9,
      "estimate": 45946,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns arriving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 45728,
      "conf_low": 43273,
      "decile": 9,
      "estimate": 44383,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns leaving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 42970,
      "conf_low": 40300,
      "decile": 10,
      "estimate": 41459,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns arriving"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 43325,
      "conf_low": 40678,
      "decile": 10,
      "estimate": 41796,
      "n_units": 308,
      "series": "Returns leaving"
    }
  ],
  "id": "arriver_vs_leaver_income",
  "notes": [
    "Adjusted gross income is the amount on the 2023 return of the matched pair of returns. A return is a filer, usually a household, and the averages weight each return equally.",
    "Counties need both directions published, so the {fact:n_nodata_mig} map units without a net figure are left out. The median county is the middle county when each counts once.",
    "Pooled averages hide who moves within a county, and pooling (which weights counties by their returns) gives a different answer from counting each county once."
  ],
  "source": "IRS Statistics of Income county migration data, filing years 2022 and 2023, and Area Deprivation Index 2023; pooled over counties with both directions published, full counts of returns",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "Returns arriving": "accent",
      "Returns leaving": "highlight"
    },
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n_units",
    "series": "series",
    "x": "decile",
    "xDomain": [
      1,
      10
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "xLabel": "Tenth of counties by Area Deprivation Index (1 = least deprived, 10 = most deprived)",
    "xTicks": "data",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      30000,
      110000
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 0,
      "prefix": "$",
      "thousands": true
    },
    "yLabel": "Average adjusted gross income per return (dollars)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Average adjusted gross income per return of arriving and of leaving returns in dollars, by tenth of counties ranked on the Area Deprivation Index (1 = least deprived), returns filed in 2022 matched with 2023",
  "title": "In pooled tenths of counties by deprivation, returns arriving report about the same income as returns leaving, though the median county's arriving returns report {fact:med_gap} dollars more",
  "type": "line",
  "width": "wide"
}