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    Chapter 8.4 · Two addresses · Report

    Place and the length of a life

    Life expectancy at birth was 82.3 years in the least deprived tenth of census tracts and 74.0 years in the most deprived, for deaths recorded in 2010 to 2015.

    Every estimate of the chapter with its interval and every figure as a table, generated from the chapter's data files. Table n of this report is figure n of the chapter. The same report as Markdown: report.md.

    Identification

    Title
    Place and the length of a life
    Label
    Two addresses
    Chapter
    8.4 (Part VIII, Early death; An American life)
    Question
    How far apart are life expectancies in nearby neighborhoods, and how steadily does life expectancy fall with neighborhood deprivation?
    Dek
    Life expectancy at birth was 82.3 years in the least deprived tenth of census tracts and 74.0 years in the most deprived, for deaths recorded in 2010 to 2015.
    Grain
    neighborhoods
    Status
    published
    Published
    Updated
    Data sources
    • USALEEP life expectancy. USALEEP life expectancy at birth with standard errors, 2010-2015: native 2010 tracts for the pairs, 2020 tracts (area-weighted from 2010 tracts, institutional tracts dropped) for everything else; years: 2010-2015; weights: ACS 2019-2023 tract population
    • Area Deprivation Index. Neighborhood Atlas Area Deprivation Index 2023, national percentile, 2020 tracts; years: 2023 release (version 4.0.1; built on ACS 2019-2023); weights: ACS 2019-2023 tract population, also for the ADI's split by county (over the frame of tracts of the chapter on gradients, slopes and variance)
    • American Community Survey. ACS 2019-2023 tracts: population (weights and the population floor of the pairs); years: 2019-2023 (5-year); weights: tract population
    • Census TIGER/Line tracts. Census 2020 tracts: internal points (distances in the pairs) and tract names; Census 2020 county file: the core-based statistical area of each county; years: 2020; weights: none (locations)
    • CDC PLACES. CDC PLACES 2024 release, tracts: current smoking and routine checkup among adults; years: 2024 release (tracts); 2025 release (ZCTAs, 2023 data year); weights: adult population of each tract (PLACES)
    • Published estimates from cited studies. Estimates from Ludwig and coauthors (2011) and Chetty, Hendren and Katz (2016), quoted in the box on the Moving to Opportunity experiment; years: as reported in each study; weights: as reported in each study
    Canonical URL
    https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/place-and-the-length-of-a-life
    Markdown
    https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/place-and-the-length-of-a-life/report.md
    BibTeX
    @misc{singh2026placeandthelengthofalife,
      author = {Singh, Vishal},
      title = {Place and the length of a life},
      year = {2026},
      url = {https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/place-and-the-length-of-a-life},
      note = {In ZIP Code Destiny. Published 9 October 2026; updated 11 October 2026.}
    }

    Principal estimates

    The facts the dek and the opening prose cite, in order of appearance. Every fact is in the table of all estimates below.

    EstimandPopulationPeriodValueIntervalnWeightsSourceFact id
    population-weighted mean of tract life expectancy in a tenth of tracts (rank bins of the ADI; tracts with tied ranks fall in the same tenth), bootstrap interval over countiesresidents of tracts in the least deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentiledeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population82.395% CI 82.0 to 82.67,820 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancyle_d1
    population-weighted mean of tract life expectancy in a tenth of tracts (rank bins of the ADI; tracts with tied ranks fall in the same tenth), bootstrap interval over countiesresidents of tracts in the most deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentiledeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population74.095% CI 73.7 to 74.37,844 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancyle_d10
    count of tracts in the gradientresidents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population77,936none (full count)USALEEP life expectancyn_gradient_tracts
    difference between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of the least and the most deprived tenth of tracts, bootstrap interval over counties (draws shared by the two means)residents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population8.395% CI 7.9 to 8.77,844 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancyle_decile_drop

    Findings

    Life expectancy at birth was 82.382.3 years of life expectancy at birthEstimandpopulation-weighted mean of tract life expectancy in a tenth of tracts (rank bins of the ADI; tracts with tied ranks fall in the same tenth), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 82.0 to 82.6n7,820 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts in the least deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentilePerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years in the least deprived tenth of census tractsCensus tractA small area drawn by the Census Bureau to stand in for a neighborhood. Boundaries are redrawn after each decennial census. and 74.074.0 years of life expectancy at birthEstimandpopulation-weighted mean of tract life expectancy in a tenth of tracts (rank bins of the ADI; tracts with tied ranks fall in the same tenth), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 73.7 to 74.3n7,844 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts in the most deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentilePerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years in the most deprived, for deaths recorded in 2010 to 2015.[1] Both are population-weighted averages of tenths cut from the 77,93677,936 tractsEstimandcount of tracts in the gradientWeightsnone (full count)Populationresidents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy non-institutional tracts in the states and DC that have a life expectancy estimate and a deprivation rank. The difference between them is 8.3 (95% CI 7.9 to 8.7)8.3 years of life expectancy at birth lower in the most deprived tenth of tractsEstimanddifference between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of the least and the most deprived tenth of tracts, bootstrap interval over counties (draws shared by the two means)Interval95% CI 7.9 to 8.7n7,844 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years, with an interval from resampling whole counties. This chapter asks how steadily life expectancy falls with deprivation, what a county average leaves out, how far apart nearby neighborhoods are, whether the ordering repeats inside metros and counties, and what an experiment adds about moving. The introduction places the comparison among the book's other outcomes and sources.

    A life expectancy estimate summarizes the death rates of a place during a period. It is the average age at death of newborns who would meet, at every age, the death rates that the tract recorded in 2010 to 2015, and it does not predict the lifespan of a particular child. Deprivation is measured separately, by the Area Deprivation IndexArea Deprivation Index (ADI)A score that ranks neighborhoods by income, education, employment and housing conditions drawn from the American Community Survey. In this book a higher national percentile means a more deprived neighborhood. (ADI), a national percentile built from census measures of income, education, employment and housing.[2] The ADI describes 2019 to 2023, after the deaths behind the life expectancy estimates, so the opening comparison sets an earlier pattern of mortality beside a later description of neighborhood conditions.

    The distance between the two averages calls for a closer look. Comparing only the ends of a scale leaves the middle unseen. Comparing distant places mixes differences in their residents with differences in their surroundings, and a detailed map can exaggerate a contrast when each neighborhood's estimate is uncertain. The sections below take up those problems in turn.

    A national pattern needs a closer look

    Arranging the tracts from least to most deprived and cutting the ranking into tenths gives a mean life expectancy that is lower in every tenth than in the one before (Table 1). The means are weighted by tract population. The ordering holds along the whole scale, and the size of the step changes along the way. The step between the two least deprived tenths is 1.3 (95% CI 1.0 to 1.6)1.3 years of life expectancy at birth, first tenth minus second tenth of tracts by ADIEstimanddifference between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of the least deprived tenth and the next tenth, bootstrap interval over counties (draws shared)Interval95% CI 1.0 to 1.6n7,820 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years and the step between the two most deprived is 1.9 (95% CI 1.6 to 2.1)1.9 years of life expectancy at birth, ninth tenth minus tenth tenth of tracts by ADIEstimanddifference between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of the ninth tenth and the most deprived tenth, bootstrap interval over counties (draws shared)Interval95% CI 1.6 to 2.1n7,844 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years, and the steps are largest at the two ends. Between neighboring ADI percentiles the line sometimes rises by a fraction of a year. In the units of the index itself, life expectancy is 0.84 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.92)0.84 years of life expectancy at birth lower per ten-point step in the ADI national percentileEstimandpopulation-weighted least-squares slope of tract life expectancy on the ADI national percentile, times ten, sign reversed; cluster-robust interval (t on the number of states minus one)Interval95% CI 0.75 to 0.92n77,936 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years lower for each ten-point step in the ADI percentile across all tracts.

    Tracts with similar ranks still differ. A tract's estimate has a median standard error of 1.71.7 years of life expectancyEstimandmedian over tracts of the standard error of tract life expectancy, each tract counted oncen77,936 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationresidents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteThe 2020-tract standard errors are mapping grade and understate the error of the area-weighted estimates. years, so part of the spread among tracts at one rank is estimation error, and part is differences that the deprivation rank does not summarize. The line describes an ordering of averages and leaves much about individual places unexplained.

    The figure keeps these ideas apart. The line is the mean at each ADI percentile. The shaded band is the interquartile range of tract estimates, a spread of places that includes estimation error and spans several years at every percentile. The markers on the tenths carry intervals from a bootstrap over counties, which describe uncertainty about those averages. Averaging over thousands of tracts shrinks the error of a mean to a small interval, so a wide band of neighborhoods can surround a precisely estimated line, and the band is not the uncertainty of the line. A single dot in the first tab says little on its own.

    County averages leave differences out

    A county is a useful administrative unit, and it can contain neighborhoods with different incomes, housing and health. New York City makes the problem visible, because each of its five boroughs is also a county. Table 2 shades the 2,0742,074 tractsEstimandcount of tracts shaded on the New York City map: the tracts of the gradient sample that lie in the five boroughsWeightsnone (full count)Populationnon-institutional tracts in the five boroughs of New York City (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens and Richmond counties) with a life expectancy estimate, an ACS 2019-2023 population above zero and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy non-institutional tracts of the city that have an estimate and an ADI rank. In every borough the 5th to 95th percentile of tract life expectancy spans at least 9.39.3 years of life expectancy at birth between the 5th and 95th percentile of tracts in a boroughEstimandsmallest of the five boroughs' population-weighted 95th minus 5th percentile of tract life expectancy (it is Richmond County's), each borough counted oncen5 boroughsWeightsnone (each borough counts once)Populationresidents of non-institutional tracts in the five boroughs of New York City (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens and Richmond counties) that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteThe percentiles are of modeled tract estimates, so part of the range is estimation error. years, while the borough means lie within 4.24.2 years of life expectancy at birth between the highest and the lowest borough mean of tract life expectancyEstimandlargest minus smallest of the five boroughs' population-weighted mean of tract life expectancyn5 boroughsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of non-institutional tracts in the five boroughs of New York City (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens and Richmond counties) that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteA spread of five means and a range of tract estimates are not the same kind of contrast. years of one another.

    The shades need care. The estimates describe deaths in 2010 to 2015 and were moved by area from the 2010 tract boundaries onto the 2020 outlines drawn here. The published standard errors, which understate the noise, put estimation error at 37%37% percent of the variance of tract life expectancy across the five boroughsEstimandpopulation-weighted mean squared standard error of the tract estimates over their population-weighted variance (the published errors taken at face value)n2,074 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of non-institutional tracts in the five boroughs of New York City (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens and Richmond counties) that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteThe 2020-tract errors are mapping grade and understate the noise, so the share is a lower bound. of the variance of these estimates, so the map tends to exaggerate the contrast between neighbors. It gives a view inside the borough averages, and the edge between two shades is not a precise boundary in residents' prospects. A gray tract has no estimate or was excluded, and it is not a zero.

    A comparison of nearby neighborhoods needs a selection rule as well. Tract life expectancy is a modeled estimateModeled estimateA figure produced by a statistical model instead of a direct count or measurement, usually for small areas where direct data are thin, borrowing strength from surveys, neighboring areas or other data. Neighboring areas can share errors, so single extremes call for caution. with a standard error, and picking the pairs with the largest apparent gaps would also pick the largest estimation errors. The pairs in Table 3 are chosen instead by their difference in deprivation, in the 2020 countiesEstimandnumber of most populous counties searched for a pair (rule)Weightsnone (definition)Populationcounties and county equivalents of the 50 states and DCPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsSourceUSALEEP life expectancy most populous counties only, subject to requirements on distance, population, boundary stability and precision. The rule never compares the life expectancy of the tracts in a pair; it uses the estimate only to require one with a small enough standard error. Each pair uses the native estimates for deaths in 2010 to 2015 on the 2010 tract boundaries and the ADI for 2019 to 2023, so the deprivation measures date from about a decade after the deaths.

    The pairs are selected by deprivation differences rather than by their life expectancy gaps, so the selection rule does not directly choose the largest outcome estimates.

    How the neighborhoods were paired

    A tract qualifies if its boundary did not change between the 2010 and 2020 censuses, it is not an institutional tract, it has at least 2,0002,000 residentsEstimandsmallest ACS 2019-2023 population of a tract that enters a pair (rule)Weightsnone (definition)Populationtracts in a pairPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsSourceUSALEEP life expectancy residents and the standard error of its estimate is at most 2.02.0 years of life expectancyEstimandlargest standard error of the USALEEP life expectancy of a tract that enters a pair (rule)Weightsnone (definition)Populationtracts in a pairPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years. Among qualifying tracts within 55 kilometersEstimandlargest straight-line distance between the Census internal points of the two tracts (rule)Weightsnone (definition)Populationpairs of tractsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsSourceUSALEEP life expectancy kilometers of each other, a county's pair is the one whose ADI differs most, and it counts if the difference reaches 5050 percentile points of the ADI national percentileEstimandsmallest difference in ADI between the two tracts for a pair to count (rule)Weightsnone (definition)Populationpairs of tractsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsSourceUSALEEP life expectancy percentile points.

    Full procedure in Methods

    In 1515 pairs of tractsEstimandcount of pairs in which the less deprived tract has the higher life expectancy estimaten17 pairs of tractsWeightsnone (full count)Populationresidents of the tracts of one pair per county: in each of the 20 most populous counties, the two tracts within 5 kilometers of each other with the widest difference in ADI, where that difference is at least 50 percentile pointsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsSourceUSALEEP life expectancy of the 1717 pairs of tractsEstimandcount of counties with such a pair (one pair per county)Weightsnone (full count)Populationcounties among the 20 most populous with a pair that meets the rulePerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsSourceUSALEEP life expectancy pairs the less deprived tract has the higher estimate, and in 1212 pairs of tractsEstimandcount of pairs whose 95% interval for the difference, which treats the two standard errors as independent, lies above zeron17 pairs of tractsWeightsnone (full count)Populationresidents of the tracts of one pair per county: in each of the 20 most populous counties, the two tracts within 5 kilometers of each other with the widest difference in ADI, where that difference is at least 50 percentile pointsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsSourceUSALEEP life expectancy the 95% interval for the gap lies above zero. The median gap over all 1717 pairs of tractsEstimandcount of counties with such a pair (one pair per county)Weightsnone (full count)Populationcounties among the 20 most populous with a pair that meets the rulePerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsSourceUSALEEP life expectancy pairs, including those whose gap is not positive, is 5.4 (95% CI 3.0 to 6.9)5.4 years of life expectancy at birth, less deprived tract minus more deprived tractEstimandmedian over the pairs of the difference in life expectancy, each pair counted once; bootstrap interval over pairsInterval95% CI 3.0 to 6.9n17 pairs of tractsWeightsnone (each pair counts once)Populationresidents of the tracts of one pair per county: in each of the 20 most populous counties, the two tracts within 5 kilometers of each other with the widest difference in ADI, where that difference is at least 50 percentile pointsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsSourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteThe two tracts of a pair are chosen on the ADI and not on life expectancy, so the difference is not selected for size. years, with an interval from a bootstrap over pairs. The gap treats the two standard errors as independent.

    This is a result about the pairs that meet the rule in the large counties searched. It does not estimate the gap between a typical pair of neighbors in the country, and it depends on the settings of the rule, above all the radius. Pairs chosen within 33 kilometersEstimandsmaller radius tried (sensitivity)Weightsnone (definition)Populationpairs of tractsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsSourceUSALEEP life expectancy kilometers have a median gap of 2.72.7 years of life expectancy at birth, less deprived tract minus more deprived tractEstimandmedian over pairs of the difference in life expectancy, each pair counted oncen17 pairs of tractsWeightsnone (each pair counts once)Populationpairs chosen by the same rule with 3 kilometers in place of the main setting, in counties where a pair meets the ADI minimumPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years (see alternative choices in Methods for the other settings).

    Showing the complete set keeps the widest contrast from standing in for every comparison. The widest pair is in Cook County, Illinois, and its tracts lie 5.05.0 kilometersEstimandstraight-line distance between the Census internal points of the two tractsWeightsnone (one pair)Populationresidents of two tracts of Cook County, IL, within 5 kilometers of each other (the pair of that county with the widest ADI difference)Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsSourceUSALEEP life expectancy kilometers apart. The more deprived one (ADI 9494 ADI national percentileEstimandArea Deprivation Index national percentile of one tract (mean of its block groups' ranks), roundedn1 tractsWeightsnone (one tract)Populationthe more deprived tract of the widest pairPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsSourceUSALEEP life expectancy) had a life expectancy of 65.8 (95% CI 62.5 to 69.1)65.8 years of life expectancy at birthEstimandUSALEEP life expectancy at birth of one tract (native 2010 tract), 95% interval of 1.96 standard errorsInterval95% CI 62.5 to 69.1n1 tractsWeightsnone (one tract)Populationresidents of the more deprived tract of the pair, Census Tract 4910Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years and the less deprived one (ADI 2424 ADI national percentileEstimandArea Deprivation Index national percentile of one tract (mean of its block groups' ranks), roundedn1 tractsWeightsnone (one tract)Populationthe less deprived tract of the widest pairPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsSourceUSALEEP life expectancy) 78.2 (95% CI 74.7 to 81.7)78.2 years of life expectancy at birthEstimandUSALEEP life expectancy at birth of one tract (native 2010 tract), 95% interval of 1.96 standard errorsInterval95% CI 74.7 to 81.7n1 tractsWeightsnone (one tract)Populationresidents of the less deprived tract of the pair, Census Tract 7201Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years, a gap of 12.4 (95% CI 7.6 to 17.2)12.4 years of life expectancy at birth, less deprived tract minus more deprived tractEstimanddifference between the USALEEP life expectancy of the less deprived and the more deprived tract; 95% interval treats the two standard errors as independentInterval95% CI 7.6 to 17.2n2 tractsWeightsnone (two tracts)Populationresidents of two tracts of Cook County, IL, within 5 kilometers of each other (the pair of that county with the widest ADI difference)Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsSourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteThe widest of the 17 pairs by life expectancy, so its estimate is the likeliest to include noise that raised the gap. years. The widest pair of a set is also the one most likely to have been widened by estimation error.

    Wider gaps may exist among tracts the rule does not pair, because the ADI ranks some tracts alike that differ widely in life expectancy, as it does in high-cost cities (Chapter 1.1, What the deprivation index measures). The largest gaps among noisy estimates are also the least reliable, so the rule does not seek them.

    Most variation lies between tracts in the same county

    Splitting the variance of tract life expectancy into a part between states, a part between counties in a state and a part between tracts in a county gives 13.713.7 percent of the variance of tract life expectancyEstimandshare of the population-weighted variance of tract life expectancy at birth between states (sum-of-squares decomposition)n78,008 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of non-institutional tracts with a life expectancy estimate (50 states and DC)Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts)SourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteConnecticut's nine planning regions stand in for its counties. The tract estimates are modeled; their mean squared standard error equals 26.7 percent of the total variance and sits inside the within-county share.%, 15.915.9 percent of the variance of tract life expectancyEstimandshare of the population-weighted variance of tract life expectancy at birth between counties within states (sum-of-squares decomposition)n78,008 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of non-institutional tracts with a life expectancy estimate (50 states and DC)Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts)SourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteConnecticut's nine planning regions stand in for its counties. The tract estimates are modeled; their mean squared standard error equals 26.7 percent of the total variance and sits inside the within-county share.% and 70.370.3 percent of the variance of tract life expectancyEstimandshare of the population-weighted variance of tract life expectancy at birth between tracts within counties (sum-of-squares decomposition)n78,008 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of non-institutional tracts with a life expectancy estimate (50 states and DC)Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts)SourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteConnecticut's nine planning regions stand in for its counties. The tract estimates are modeled; their mean squared standard error equals 26.7 percent of the total variance and sits inside the within-county share.% (Table 4). The split comes from every one of 78,00878,008 tractsEstimandcount of tracts in the variance splitWeightsnone (full count)Populationresidents of non-institutional tracts with a life expectancy estimate (50 states and DC)Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy tracts in 3,1123,112 counties and Connecticut planning regionsEstimandcount of counties with at least one tract in the variance splitWeightsnone (full count)Populationresidents of non-institutional tracts with a life expectancy estimate (50 states and DC)Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy counties and Connecticut planning regions and has no sampling interval.

    The within-county share includes estimation error. The tract estimates are modeled, and their mean squared standard error equals 26.726.7 percent of the variance of tract life expectancyEstimandpopulation-weighted mean squared standard error of tract life expectancy as a share of the total variancen78,008 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of non-institutional tracts with a life expectancy estimate (50 states and DC)Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts)SourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteThe 2020-tract standard errors are mapping grade and understate the error.% of the total variance, all of it inside the within-county share. Taking the published errors at face value, 60%60% percent of the variance net of estimation errorEstimandwithin-county share of the variance of tract life expectancy after subtracting the mean squared standard error from the total and from the within-county partn78,008 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of non-institutional tracts with a life expectancy estimate (50 states and DC)Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts)SourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteTakes the published standard errors at face value; the 2020-tract errors are mapping grade and understate the noise, so the share of the true differences that lies within counties is lower. of the variance that is not estimation error lies within counties. Because the 2020-tract errors are mapping grade and understate the noise, the true share is lower.

    The ADI is the contrast. Only 34%34% percent of the variance of the ADI national percentileEstimandshare of the population-weighted variance of the ADI national percentile that lies between tracts in the same county (sum-of-squares decomposition)n82,545 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationtracts in the 50 states and DC with all nine measures, an ACS population above zero and an ADI rankPeriodACS 2019-2023; ADI 2023SourceArea Deprivation Index of its variance lies within counties, so the index that ranks tracts for the gradient places most of its variation between counties, while life expectancy places most of its variation inside them. Chapter 1.1, What the deprivation index measures examines what the ADI is made of.

    Table 5 shows the range inside the 3030 countiesEstimandnumber of most populous counties in the county spread (rule)Weightsnone (definition)Populationcounties and county equivalents of the 50 states and DCPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy most populous counties. The 5th to 95th percentile range of tract life expectancy has a median of 10.510.5 years of life expectancy at birth between the 5th and 95th percentile of tractsEstimandmedian over counties of the population-weighted 95th minus 5th percentile of tract life expectancy, each county counted oncen30 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationresidents of the 30 most populous counties and Connecticut planning regionsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteThe percentiles are of modeled tract estimates, so part of the range is estimation error. years across them. The widest, 13.913.9 years of life expectancy at birth between the 5th and 95th percentile of tractsEstimandpopulation-weighted 95th minus 5th percentile of tract life expectancy in the county with the widest range among the 30 most populousn1,221 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of Cook County, ILPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteIncludes estimation error. years in Cook County, is wider than the 8.38.3 years of life expectancy at birth lower in the most deprived tenth of tractsEstimanddifference between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of the least and the most deprived tenth of tracts, bootstrap interval over counties (draws shared by the two means)Interval95% CI 7.9 to 8.7n7,844 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy-year difference between the means of the nation's least and most deprived tenths, though a range of tract estimates and a difference between means are not the same kind of contrast.

    Part of every range is estimation error. Shrinking each tract estimate toward its county mean approximates the range net of that error and gives a median range of 7.77.7 years of life expectancy at birth between the 5th and 95th percentile of tracts, net of estimation errorEstimandmedian over counties of the 5th to 95th percentile range after shrinking the tract estimates toward the county mean by the square root of one minus the share of the variance that is estimation error (published standard errors, normal approximation)n30 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationresidents of the 30 most populous counties and Connecticut planning regionsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteThe 2020-tract standard errors are mapping grade and understate the noise, so the range net of error is an upper bound. years. The approximation takes the published errors at face value and does not recover the true differences between tracts exactly, and because those errors understate the noise, the shrunken range is an upper bound. The median share of the variance within a county that is estimation error is 43%43% percent of the variance of tract life expectancy within the countyEstimandmedian over counties of the mean squared standard error of tract life expectancy over the population-weighted variance of tract life expectancy in the countyn30 countiesWeightsnone (each county counts once)Populationresidents of the 30 most populous counties and Connecticut planning regionsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy across these counties, against 38%38% percent of the within-county variance of tract life expectancyEstimandmean squared standard error of tract life expectancy over the within-county part of the variance (the canonical noise share over the canonical within-county share), taking the published errors at face valuen78,008 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of non-institutional tracts with a life expectancy estimate (50 states and DC)Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts)SourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteThe same denominator as the county shares of estimation error in the county spread figure. for all counties together, and each estimate is shrunk by the square root of one minus its county's share.

    A map that paints each county one color shows the county mean and hides the range around it. Chapter 1.2, What a county average leaves out builds the deprivation index at two zooms to see how much a county-level measure keeps.

    Repeating the comparison changes the question

    The national line compares neighborhoods across the country, and it could arise from where deprived tracts are, with the least deprived concentrated in some regions and the most deprived in others. A different comparison asks whether the ordering also appears among neighborhoods of the same area.

    Fitting the line separately in each metro, meaning a core-based statistical area of the Census Bureau, tests that. The 267267 metrosEstimandcount of metrosWeightsnone (full count)Populationresidents of metros (core-based statistical areas) with at least 40 tracts that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteMetropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas; each tract takes the area of its county (Census county file). metros that have at least 4040 tractsEstimandminimum number of tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rank for a metro to enter (rule)Weightsnone (definition)PopulationmetrosPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy tracts with an estimate and an ADI rank hold 82%82% percent of residentsEstimandshare of residents of the tract sample who live in the metros of the analysisn267 metrosWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy of the residents in the sample. All of them show lower life expectancy in more deprived tracts (Table 6), and the 95% interval lies above zero in 260260 metrosEstimandcount of metros whose 95% interval for the reported slope lies above zeron267 metrosWeightsnone (full count)Populationresidents of metros (core-based statistical areas) with at least 40 tracts that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy of them. The median metro has life expectancy 1.20 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.23)1.20 years of life expectancy at birth lower per ten-point step in the ADI national percentileEstimandmedian over metros of the metro slope, sign reversed; bootstrap interval over metrosInterval95% CI 1.14 to 1.23n267 metrosWeightsnone (each metro counts once)Populationresidents of metros (core-based statistical areas) with at least 40 tracts that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years lower per ten-point step.

    At the 5th percentile of metros the difference is 0.700.70 years of life expectancy at birth lower per ten-point step in the ADI national percentileEstimand5th percentile over metros of the estimated metro slope, sign reversedn267 metrosWeightsnone (each metro counts once)Populationresidents of metros (core-based statistical areas) with at least 40 tracts that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteA percentile of estimates, which are stretched by estimation error. years and at the 95th 1.671.67 years of life expectancy at birth lower per ten-point step in the ADI national percentileEstimand95th percentile over metros of the estimated metro slope, sign reversedn267 metrosWeightsnone (each metro counts once)Populationresidents of metros (core-based statistical areas) with at least 40 tracts that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteA percentile of estimates, which are stretched by estimation error.. Those percentiles overstate the real spread of slopes, and a ranking of local slopes would put the noisiest estimates at the extremes. Estimation error makes up 48%48% percent of the variance of the estimated metro slopesEstimandmean squared standard error of the metro slopes over the variance of the estimated slopes across metrosn267 metrosWeightsnone (each metro counts once)Populationresidents of metros (core-based statistical areas) with at least 40 tracts that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteThe standard errors treat tracts as independent in metros with fewer than five counties, so this share may be too small. of the variance of the estimated slopes, and the order of the dots in the figure puts the least precise slopes at both ends, so no metro is named steepest or flattest. Chapter 10.1, Gradients, slopes and variance shrinks the estimates and reports the same metro slopes.

    Comparing only tracts in the same county, with a separate baseline for each county (fixed effectsFixed effectsA regression adjustment that gives each group, such as each county, its own baseline. The estimate then rests on differences within groups.), gives a slope of 1.12 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.16)1.12 years of life expectancy at birth lower per ten-point step in the ADI national percentileEstimandpopulation-weighted least-squares slope of tract life expectancy on the ADI national percentile, times ten, sign reversed, with a constant for each county; cluster-robust interval (t on the number of counties minus one)Interval95% CI 1.07 to 1.16n77,722 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years per ten-point step, against 0.84 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.92)0.84 years of life expectancy at birth lower per ten-point step in the ADI national percentileEstimandpopulation-weighted least-squares slope of tract life expectancy on the ADI national percentile, times ten, sign reversed; cluster-robust interval (t on the number of states minus one)Interval95% CI 0.75 to 0.92n77,936 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy across all tracts. The within-county slope is the larger of the two, and its interval lies entirely beyond the interval of the national slope, so the same difference in ADI goes with a larger difference in life expectancy inside a county than across the country. These comparisons describe the geography more closely and leave the causal question open. Chapter 10.1, Gradients, slopes and variance sets out how the slopes and the split of variation are built (the procedures used here are in Methods).

    Some outcomes follow a different pattern

    Other chapters ask whether the ordering seen in longevity holds for other measures of life, and where it breaks down. The second tab of Table 1 gives a first example. In the PLACES 2024 release, which models survey responses from 2022, the share of adults who smoke was 9.1% (95% CI 8.5% to 9.6%)9.1% percent of adultsEstimandweighted mean of the tract prevalence in a tenth of tracts (rank bins of the ADI; tracts with tied ranks fall in the same tenth), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 8.5% to 9.6%n8,274 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the least deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentile: current cigarette smokingPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES in the least deprived tenth of tracts and 22.8% (95% CI 22.5% to 23.1%)22.8% percent of adultsEstimandweighted mean of the tract prevalence in a tenth of tracts (rank bins of the ADI; tracts with tied ranks fall in the same tenth), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 22.5% to 23.1%n8,213 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the most deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentile: current cigarette smokingPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES in the most deprived, 13.7 (95% CI 13.1 to 14.4)13.7 percentage points of adults, higher in the most deprived tenth of tractsEstimanddifference between the weighted mean prevalence of the least deprived and the most deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentile, bootstrap interval over counties (draws shared by the two means)Interval95% CI 13.1 to 14.4n8,213 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults: current cigarette smokingPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES points higher.

    The share who had a routine checkup in the past year was 74.2%74.2% percent of adultsEstimandweighted mean of the tract prevalence in a tenth of tracts (rank bins of the ADI; tracts with tied ranks fall in the same tenth), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 73.2% to 75.3%n8,274 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the least deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentile: routine checkup in the past yearPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES and 77.8%77.8% percent of adultsEstimandweighted mean of the tract prevalence in a tenth of tracts (rank bins of the ADI; tracts with tied ranks fall in the same tenth), bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 77.3% to 78.2%n8,213 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults in the most deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentile: routine checkup in the past yearPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES, only 3.6 (95% CI 2.4 to 4.6)3.6 percentage points of adults, higher in the most deprived tenth of tractsEstimanddifference between the weighted mean prevalence of the least deprived and the most deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentile, bootstrap interval over counties (draws shared by the two means)Interval95% CI 2.4 to 4.6n8,213 tractsWeightsadult population of the tract (PLACES)Populationadults: routine checkup in the past yearPeriodBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 2023SourceCDC PLACES points higher in the most deprived tenth. The checkup records contact with a physician and not the state of anyone's health. Its small difference across the scale is the exception that Chapter 7.1, Health behaviors and the supply of care examines beside the dental visit, which falls with deprivation. The smoking and checkup lines are both modeled estimatesModeled estimateA figure produced by a statistical model instead of a direct count or measurement, usually for small areas where direct data are thin, borrowing strength from surveys, neighboring areas or other data. Neighboring areas can share errors, so single extremes call for caution. from CDC PLACES, which draws on survey responses and on census and American Community Survey inputs.[3] The ADI is built from the American Community Survey as well, so part of each of those two gradients is built in.

    The choice of comparison matters as well. Traffic pollution is lower in more deprived tracts across the country and higher in more deprived tracts within a county (Chapter 6.1, Air pollution). The choice of deprivation measure matters too, because a national ranking combines different kinds of places, and its measures of housing cost can rank expensive neighborhoods in ways that obscure hardship (Chapter 1.1, What the deprivation index measures).

    Chapter 7.2, Health behaviors, person by person changes the unit. A survey can ask the same respondent about household income and drinking instead of inferring that relationship from neighborhood averages, and among adults measured one at a time, binge drinking rises with household income except among non-Hispanic Black adults. The survey gains information about individuals and loses geographic detail, because its public files do not support the tract comparisons of the maps. PLACES draws on the same survey, so agreement between the two is not an independent replication.

    Moving is a different question

    The comparisons so far describe places. A family deciding whether to move faces another question, what would change for that family after the move, and the residents already living in a destination differ from potential movers in ways that a map cannot remove. This is the one section of the chapter that asks what moving does, and it reports a randomized experiment.

    The book sets this evidence beside its descriptive comparisons and does not treat the experiment as an explanation of the whole gradient.

    Life expectancy falls across tenths of tracts under all four rankings

    Over the 71,77171,771 tractsEstimandcount of tracts in the common sample of the ranking comparisonWeightsnone (full count)Populationtracts with the outcome and all four rankingsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy tracts that have every ranking, the ADI baseline runs from 82.3 (95% CI 82.1 to 82.6)82.3 Life expectancy at birth (years)Estimandpopulation-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at birth; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over countiesInterval95% CI 82.1 to 82.6n7,179 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationthe least deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Area Deprivation Index, among the tracts with all four rankingsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years in the least deprived tenth to 74.0 (95% CI 73.8 to 74.3)74.0 Life expectancy at birth (years)Estimandpopulation-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at birth; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over countiesInterval95% CI 73.8 to 74.3n7,206 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationthe most deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Area Deprivation Index, among the tracts with all four rankingsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy in the most deprived, with a rank correlation of −1.00−1.00 rank correlationEstimandSpearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted onceWeightseach bin counted oncePopulationthe bins of tracts ranked by Area Deprivation IndexPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy between tenth and mean (Table 7). Under the standardized index, which applies the ADI's coefficients after standardizing each of its measures, the tenths run from 82.4 (95% CI 82.2 to 82.5)82.4 Life expectancy at birth (years)Estimandpopulation-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at birth; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over countiesInterval95% CI 82.2 to 82.5n7,177 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationthe least deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Standardized index, among the tracts with all four rankingsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy to 74.7 (95% CI 74.2 to 75.1)74.7 Life expectancy at birth (years)Estimandpopulation-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at birth; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over countiesInterval95% CI 74.2 to 75.1n7,178 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationthe most deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Standardized index, among the tracts with all four rankingsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years with a correlation of −1.00−1.00 rank correlationEstimandSpearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted onceWeightseach bin counted oncePopulationthe bins of tracts ranked by Standardized indexPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy. Ranking tracts by median household income gives 82.2 (95% CI 82.0 to 82.4)82.2 Life expectancy at birth (years)Estimandpopulation-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at birth; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over countiesInterval95% CI 82.0 to 82.4n7,177 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationthe least deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Median household income, among the tracts with all four rankingsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy and 74.2 (95% CI 73.9 to 74.4)74.2 Life expectancy at birth (years)Estimandpopulation-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at birth; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over countiesInterval95% CI 73.9 to 74.4n7,178 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationthe most deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Median household income, among the tracts with all four rankingsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years (−1.00−1.00 rank correlationEstimandSpearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted onceWeightseach bin counted oncePopulationthe bins of tracts ranked by Median household incomePerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy), and ranking them by the bachelor's degree share gives 82.3 (95% CI 82.0 to 82.5)82.3 Life expectancy at birth (years)Estimandpopulation-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at birth; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over countiesInterval95% CI 82.0 to 82.5n7,178 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationthe least deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Bachelor's degree share, among the tracts with all four rankingsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy and 75.3 (95% CI 74.9 to 75.7)75.3 Life expectancy at birth (years)Estimandpopulation-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at birth; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over countiesInterval95% CI 74.9 to 75.7n7,175 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationthe most deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Bachelor's degree share, among the tracts with all four rankingsPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy years (−1.00−1.00 rank correlationEstimandSpearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted onceWeightseach bin counted oncePopulationthe bins of tracts ranked by Bachelor's degree sharePerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy). Under the rule of Chapter 9.1, How far one ranking goes none of the three counts as a change, since the ends differ under each ranking and every correlation stays beyond 0.90.9 absolute rank correlationEstimandthreshold between a steady and an uneven gradientWeightsnone (a fixed rule)Populationthe rule for changed gradients (docs/RANKING_SWITCH_RULE.md)Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancy in absolute value.

    The rest of this part follows deaths before old age by cause. Chapter 8.1, Gun homicide and the causes of early death follows firearm homicide into the few neighborhoods where it concentrates, Chapter 8.2, Overdose, alcohol and suicide maps overdose, alcohol-induced deaths and suicide by county, Chapter 8.3, Mortality trends, 2018 to 2024 follows those deaths from 2018 to 2024, and Chapter 8.5, Violence and the life-expectancy gap asks how much of this chapter's gap between the least and the most deprived tenths homicide accounts for.

    Reading paths connect to this chapter's comparisons. The argument in eight chapters follows the main line through the volumes, differences inside one county follows the within-county comparison, and outcomes that do not follow the gradient collects the exceptions. The contents page lists every chapter with its finding.

    What these data cannot show

    Outside the box, every number here describes places. A tract with a lower life expectancy and a higher ADI is a tract whose residents, taken together, died younger in 2010 to 2015, and the data do not say which of them did, or whether a person who moved would have died later (ecological inferenceEcological inferenceDrawing conclusions about individuals from data about places or groups. A pattern across counties need not hold for the people inside them.). The pairs show that nearby tracts differ, and the data cannot separate what the places do from who lives in them. The experiment in the box covers women and children who enrolled in one program, and it does not say how much of the gradient in the figures would change if a place changed.

    The periods differ. The life expectancy estimates are modeled for deaths in 2010 to 2015 and were never updated. The ADI is a national percentile built on survey data for 2019 to 2023, and it may rank a tract differently from the way the same tract looked in 2010.

    The geography is matched imperfectly. The 2020-tract file used for the gradient is area-weighted from 2010 tracts, and its errors are mapping grade, approximations that understate the uncertainty. Because the pairs are chosen on the ADI among large counties, their median describes that rule, as the sensitivity to the radius shows, and says nothing about counties that are small or rural. The counties left out are Los Angeles, Santa Clara and Alameda, all in California, and the ADI understates deprivation in high-cost cities, so a qualifying pair there may exist and not be found. The distances are straight lines and not rides. Puerto Rico has no life expectancy estimates and is not included, and Connecticut's planning regions stand in for its counties. Institutional tracts are dropped, and a tract without an estimate is absent and not zero.

    The estimates are modeled. A tract's life expectancy has a median standard error of 1.71.7 years of life expectancyEstimandmedian over tracts of the standard error of tract life expectancy, each tract counted oncen77,936 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationresidents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationSourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteThe 2020-tract standard errors are mapping grade and understate the error of the area-weighted estimates. years, which the intervals in Table 3 show. The intervals in the figures come from resampling counties of published estimates, and they leave out error in the life expectancy model beyond its standard errors, error from moving estimates onto 2020 tracts and uncertainty in the ADI. The PLACES measures are modeled estimates built partly from the same census and survey inputs as the ADI, so the lines for smoking and the checkup show how the model maps those inputs into prevalence as well as how adults differ.

    Tables

    Table 1. Life expectancy is lower in each higher tenth of tracts by deprivation, and smoking rises with it while the annual checkup rises little

    Tract life expectancy at birth by Area Deprivation Index percentile, and two modeled health measures by tenth of tracts

    Table 1.1. Life expectancy

    Life expectancy at birth falls from 82.3 years in the least deprived tenth of tracts to 74.0 years in the most deprived

    Life expectancy at birth against the Area Deprivation Index national percentile, one dot per sampled tract, with the population-weighted mean and the interquartile range of tracts at each percentile, deaths in 2010 to 2015

    No inline rows: the values of Table 1.1 are in /data/place-and-the-length-of-a-life/le_by_adi_tracts.json.

    Table 1.2. Smoking and checkups

    Smoking rises from 9.1% to 22.8% across tenths of tracts by deprivation, and the annual checkup moves from 74.2% to 77.8%

    Percent of adults who currently smoke and percent who had a routine checkup in the past year, by tenth of tracts by ADI national percentile, modeled tract estimates, BRFSS 2022

    conf_highconf_lowdecileestimatenseries
    9.598.5319.068,274Current smoking
    11.2510.20210.748,118Current smoking
    11.9911.28311.628,511Current smoking
    12.8812.45412.678,261Current smoking
    14.0913.70513.898,189Current smoking
    15.2814.93615.108,318Current smoking
    16.5416.25716.398,305Current smoking
    17.9417.61817.788,238Current smoking
    19.6219.27919.458,354Current smoking
    23.1422.461022.818,213Current smoking
    75.2973.23174.168,274Annual checkup
    75.4073.25274.278,118Annual checkup
    75.3574374.678,511Annual checkup
    75.4174.40474.908,261Annual checkup
    75.8975.06575.468,189Annual checkup
    76.2675.45675.858,318Annual checkup
    76.5975.81776.218,305Annual checkup
    76.9676.26876.628,238Annual checkup
    77.4476.83977.148,354Annual checkup
    78.1877.341077.768,213Annual checkup

    Source: USALEEP, 2010-2015; Area Deprivation Index, 2023; CDC PLACES 2024 release (BRFSS 2022); population-weighted, modeled estimates

    Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/place-and-the-length-of-a-life/figures/le_gradient.json

    Table 2. Within every New York City borough, the 5th to 95th percentile of tract life expectancy spans at least 9.3 years, while the borough means lie within 4.2 years of one another

    Life expectancy at birth of 2,074 census tracts in the five boroughs of New York City, deaths in 2010 to 2015, on 2020 tracts; 250 tracts are gray because they have no value

    No inline rows: the values of Table 2 are in /data/place-and-the-length-of-a-life/nyc_le_map.json.

    Note: The unit is the 2020 census tract. Life expectancy is the USALEEP estimate for deaths in 2010 to 2015, which the National Center for Health Statistics built on 2010 tracts and which is area-weighted onto 2020 tracts here, so the estimate for a 2020 tract blends the 2010 tracts that overlap it and its standard error is mapping grade, which understates the error. Every shade is a modeled estimate with a standard error (the median is 2.0 years), and the interval in the tooltip is a normal-approximation 95% interval built from the standard error.

    Note: Taking the published standard errors at face value, estimation error makes up 37% of the variance of these estimates. If the errors of neighboring tracts are independent, the difference between two neighbors carries the sum of their error variances, so a map of noisy estimates exaggerates the contrast between neighbors. That is why the pairs figure chooses its pairs on the ADI, which shares no sampling error with life expectancy. This map marks no tract.

    Note: 2,074 tracts are shaded: the non-institutional tracts of the five counties of New York City (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens and Richmond) that have a life expectancy estimate, an ACS 2019-2023 population above zero and an ADI rank, which is the sample of the gradient. 250 are gray because the tract has no residents in the survey, no published estimate, an institutional population or no ADI rank; the tooltip names which.

    Note: Ranges are population-weighted 5th and 95th percentiles of tract estimates, and borough means are population-weighted. A range of tract estimates and a spread of borough means are not the same kind of contrast, and the range includes estimation error. The range net of error shrinks each tract estimate toward its borough mean by the square root of one minus the borough's share of variance that is estimation error, as in the county spread figure, and is an upper bound because the 2020-tract errors are mapping grade.

    Source: USALEEP life expectancy at birth, 2010-2015, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts; Area Deprivation Index, 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population; population-weighted ranges; modeled estimates

    Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/place-and-the-length-of-a-life/figures/nyc_le_map.json

    Table 3. In 17 large counties, the pair of tracts within 5 kilometers with the widest ADI difference had higher life expectancy in the less deprived tract in 15, and a median gap over the pairs of 5.4 years

    Life expectancy at birth in the two tracts of one pair per county, the pair with the widest ADI difference, in 17 of the 20 most populous counties, native 2010 tracts, deaths in 2010 to 2015, 95% intervals

    County and tractsLife expectancy, more deprived tract (years)Life expectancy, less deprived tract (years)Gap (years)ADI, more deprived tractADI, less deprived tractDistance (kilometers)
    Cook County, IL (tracts 4910 and 7201)65.878.212.494245.0
    Harris County, TX (tracts 4222 and 4207)74.780.96.2100144.8
    Maricopa County, AZ (tracts 4204.01 and 4204.02)73.280.47.294144.7
    San Diego County, CA (tracts 202.09 and 207.06)79.278.5−0.76954.4
    Orange County, CA (tracts 748.02 and 751)76.282.36.161102.2
    Miami-Dade County, FL (tracts 1.24 and 11.04)75.981.35.48894.5
    Kings County, NY (tracts 596 and 422)78.581.02.56713.1
    Riverside County, CA (tracts 422.09 and 306.03)75.880.14.390114.7
    Dallas County, TX (tracts 136.21 and 136.11)77.680.63.07262.0
    Queens County, NY (tracts 240 and 1333)76.883.76.96653.9
    King County, WA (tracts 308.01 and 299.02)72.879.46.689144.1
    San Bernardino County, CA (tracts 87.10 and 87.08)74.279.14.998242.1
    Clark County, NV (tracts 29.65 and 29.47)79.179.60.586183.8
    Tarrant County, TX (tracts 1025 and 1054.05)69.179.110.08262.4
    Broward County, FL (tracts 104.02 and 105.02)79.979.90.092203.1
    Bexar County, TX (tracts 1702 and 1902)76.781.04.396304.6
    Wayne County, MI (tracts 5015 and 5506)70.978.37.494104.0

    Note: The two tracts of a pair are chosen on the ADI, not on life expectancy, so the differences are not the largest that could be found among noisy estimates. A county with no pair that reaches an ADI difference of 50 percentile points is left out (3 of the 20 counties).

    Note: Life expectancy is the native estimate for the 2010 tract, used only where the boundary did not change by 2020, meaning that the 2010 and 2020 tracts with one GEOID share at least 99% of the land area of each, so the ADI and the ACS population of the 2020 tract describe the same ground. Distances are straight lines between the Census internal points of the tracts, and the data hold no transit routes. Intervals are normal-approximation 95% intervals from the standard error; the gap treats the two errors as independent. Institutional tracts are excluded.

    Source: USALEEP life expectancy at birth on 2010 tracts, 2010-2015, with standard errors; Area Deprivation Index, 2023; ACS 2019-2023; modeled estimates

    Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/place-and-the-length-of-a-life/figures/neighborhood_pairs.json

    Table 4. 70.3 percent of the variance of tract life expectancy lies between tracts in the same county, 26.7 points of it estimation error, against 34% percent for the ADI

    Share of the population-weighted variance of tract life expectancy and of the ADI national percentile that lies between states, between counties in a state and between tracts in a county, percent

    levelmeasureshare
    Between statesTract life expectancy13.75
    Between counties in a stateTract life expectancy15.92
    Between tracts in a countyTract life expectancy43.62
    Estimation error within countiesTract life expectancy26.71
    Between statesADI national percentile36.64
    Between counties in a stateADI national percentile29.38
    Between tracts in a countyADI national percentile33.98

    Note: Tract life expectancy is modeled. The mean squared standard error of the tract estimates equals 26.7 percent of the total variance and sits inside the within-county share, as the two right-hand segments show; the 2020-tract standard errors are mapping grade and understate the noise, so the share of the true differences that lies between tracts in a county is lower than the net share.

    Note: The life expectancy bar uses 78,008 tracts in 3,112 counties and Connecticut planning regions; the ADI bar uses the tracts of the index in the chapter on gradients, slopes and variance. Connecticut's planning regions stand in for its counties.

    Source: USALEEP life expectancy, 2010-2015; ACS 2019-2023; Area Deprivation Index, 2023; population-weighted decomposition of the variance, full counts of tracts

    Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/place-and-the-length-of-a-life/figures/variance_split.json

    Table 5. In the 30 most populous counties, tract life expectancy spans a median of 10.5 years between the 5th and 95th percentile, 7.7 net of estimation error

    Population-weighted mean life expectancy at birth of each county (dot) and the 5th to 95th percentile of its tracts (whisker), sorted by the width of the range, deaths in 2010 to 2015

    CountyMean life expectancy (years)5th percentile of tracts95th percentile of tractsRange (years)Range net of estimation error (years)Estimation error, share of variance (%)TractsResidents
    Cook County, IL78.570.784.613.912.1241,2214,864,100
    Wayne County, MI75.468.982.213.311.7235551,707,514
    New York County, NY82.475.688.613.010.8312501,405,675
    Palm Beach County, FL80.674.086.912.910.8303301,399,959
    Philadelphia County, PA75.469.081.512.510.9253641,502,783
    Hillsborough County, FL78.271.483.412.09.7352871,317,655
    Miami-Dade County, FL80.574.386.111.89.9306552,544,531
    Kings County, NY79.973.885.311.68.8427342,521,198
    Alameda County, CA81.075.386.511.28.6413621,598,446
    Broward County, FL79.573.684.711.18.7393921,847,256
    Dallas County, TX77.872.082.810.98.4405612,324,374
    King County, WA81.376.186.910.88.1444752,184,985
    Harris County, TX78.372.783.510.88.1441,0004,292,763
    Queens County, NY81.776.687.110.57.3526562,250,510
    Orange County, FL79.373.684.110.58.0422481,339,363
    Los Angeles County, CA80.675.485.910.57.8452,3509,461,723
    Clark County, NV77.772.282.510.37.2524752,040,360
    Bronx County, NY78.373.583.910.37.4493261,369,766
    Riverside County, CA79.474.184.310.27.6454922,352,240
    San Diego County, CA80.975.985.89.97.2476813,038,849
    Middlesex County, MA81.877.487.19.77.6403381,544,211
    San Bernardino County, CA78.473.583.29.77.1474472,093,159
    Sacramento County, CA78.874.283.99.77.6393431,515,289
    Bexar County, TX78.273.182.89.77.3433341,812,879
    Maricopa County, AZ78.873.983.59.66.8508653,980,946
    Tarrant County, TX78.073.082.49.46.5524021,931,602
    Orange County, CA81.777.686.18.54.9675752,964,928
    Nassau County, NY82.478.687.08.46.3432721,358,476
    Santa Clara County, CA82.878.887.18.34.2753931,835,064
    Suffolk County, NY80.777.084.57.55.0553591,400,449

    Views: Tract estimates (every row); Net of estimation error (every row).

    Note: Tract estimates are modeled, so the range of the estimates is wider than the range of the true values. The second view takes the published standard errors at face value: the median share of the variance within a county that is estimation error is 43%, against 38% for all counties together. The shrinkage multiplies the distance of the 5th and 95th percentiles from the county mean by the square root of one minus that share. The 2020-tract errors are mapping grade, so the range net of error is an upper bound. The range of tract estimates is not like-for-like with a difference between means of tenths.

    Note: Counties are chosen by population and not by range. With 15 counties the median range is 10.5 years and with 60 it is 10.5. Institutional tracts are dropped. Connecticut's planning regions stand in for its counties.

    Source: USALEEP life expectancy, 2010-2015; ACS 2019-2023 population; population-weighted percentiles of tract values, modeled estimates

    Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/place-and-the-length-of-a-life/figures/county_spread.json

    Table 6. Life expectancy is lower in more deprived tracts in all 267 metros with enough tracts, by a median of 1.20 years per ten-point step

    One regression of tract life expectancy on the ADI national percentile in each metro with enough tracts, shown by metro and as a distribution, deaths in 2010 to 2015

    Table 6.1. Slope by metro

    Life expectancy is lower in more deprived tracts in every metro, from 0.70 years per ten-point step at the 5th percentile of metros to 1.67 at the 95th

    Slope of tract life expectancy at birth on the ADI national percentile within each metro, years lower per ten-point step, one dot per metro labeled by its most populous county, deaths in 2010 to 2015

    conf_highconf_lowerrorsestimatemetron
    1.461.09HC3 errors1.27Summit, OH167
    1.730.711HC3 errors1.22Dougherty, GA43
    1.550.922Clustered on counties1.24Albany, NY232
    1.170.770HC3 errors0.968Bernalillo, NM223
    1.900.894HC3 errors1.39Rapides, LA42
    1.130.802HC3 errors0.965Lehigh, PA188
    1.300.637Clustered on counties0.970Randall, TX64
    1.841.07HC3 errors1.45Anchorage, AK79
    1.711.15HC3 errors1.43Washtenaw, MI86
    1.630.507HC3 errors1.07Outagamie, WI52
    0.9340.363HC3 errors0.649Buncombe, NC112
    1.590.881HC3 errors1.23Clarke, GA53
    1.190.949Clustered on counties1.07Fulton, GA1,354
    1.180.542HC3 errors0.859Atlantic, NJ69
    1.06−0.236HC3 errors0.411Lee, AL43
    1.260.917Clustered on counties1.09Richmond, GA134
    0.8460.511Clustered on counties0.679Travis, TX442
    1.160.751HC3 errors0.957Kern, CA212
    1.671.14Clustered on counties1.40Baltimore, MD670
    2.990.846HC3 errors1.92Barnstable, MA52
    1.870.796Clustered on counties1.33East Baton Rouge, LA192
    1.490.976HC3 errors1.23Jefferson, TX105
    1.600.018HC3 errors0.807Whatcom, WA50
    2.180.665HC3 errors1.42Deschutes, OR42
    2.000.799HC3 errors1.40Yellowstone, MT42
    1.880.700HC3 errors1.29Broome, NY64
    1.451.17Clustered on counties1.31Jefferson, AL289
    1.630.624HC3 errors1.13McLean, IL40
    1.170.843Clustered on counties1.00Ada, ID190
    1.800.798Clustered on counties1.30Middlesex, MA1,045
    1.980.652HC3 errors1.31Boulder, CO64
    2.981.76HC3 errors2.37Kitsap, WA53
    1.280.983HC3 errors1.13Western Connecticut, CT212
    1.731.00HC3 errors1.36Cameron, TX118
    1.491.17HC3 errors1.33Erie, NY307
    1.760.633HC3 errors1.20Chittenden, VT50
    1.841.31HC3 errors1.58Stark, OH95
    1.020.583HC3 errors0.799Lee, FL190
    1.630.653HC3 errors1.14Linn, IA65
    2.341.40HC3 errors1.87Champaign, IL43
    1.290.654Clustered on counties0.972Kanawha, WV76
    1.060.708HC3 errors0.884Charleston, SC159
    1.280.986Clustered on counties1.13Mecklenburg, NC599
    1.760.435Clustered on counties1.10Albemarle, VA51
    1.601.01Clustered on counties1.31Hamilton, TN130
    1.231.06Clustered on counties1.15Cook, IL2,183
    2.111.14HC3 errors1.63Butte, CA51
    1.691.45Clustered on counties1.57Hamilton, OH522
    1.220.711HC3 errors0.964Montgomery, TN52
    1.461.19Clustered on counties1.33Cuyahoga, OH589
    1.160.549HC3 errors0.854Brazos, TX60
    1.811.09HC3 errors1.45El Paso, CO155
    1.460.677HC3 errors1.07Boone, MO40
    1.330.942Clustered on counties1.14Richland, SC205
    1.531.34Clustered on counties1.43Muscogee, GA87
    1.740.972Clustered on counties1.36Franklin, OH474
    1.180.518HC3 errors0.848Nueces, TX103
    1.330.752HC3 errors1.04Okaloosa, FL63
    0.9860.834Clustered on counties0.910Dallas, TX1,501
    1.360.726HC3 errors1.04Baldwin, AL41
    1.510.487HC3 errors0.996Scott, IA107
    1.871.45HC3 errors1.66Montgomery, OH209
    1.570.953HC3 errors1.26Volusia, FL143
    1.430.939Clustered on counties1.19Denver, CO635
    1.380.681Clustered on counties1.03Polk, IA154
    1.401.20Clustered on counties1.30Wayne, MI1,238
    1.510.670HC3 errors1.09St. Louis, MN93
    1.750.308Clustered on counties1.03Durham, NC131
    1.79−0.045HC3 errors0.871Monroe, PA46
    2.171.36HC3 errors1.77Elkhart, IN44
    0.8510.416HC3 errors0.633El Paso, TX175
    2.080.935HC3 errors1.50Erie, PA65
    1.910.820HC3 errors1.36Lane, OR86
    2.131.46HC3 errors1.80Vanderburgh, IN88
    2.061.28HC3 errors1.67Cass, ND58
    1.650.765HC3 errors1.21Cumberland, NC107
    0.9850.401HC3 errors0.693Benton, AR109
    1.571.07HC3 errors1.32Genesee, MI124
    1.620.646HC3 errors1.13Florence, SC52
    2.020.669HC3 errors1.34Lauderdale, AL40
    2.56−0.146HC3 errors1.21Larimer, CO76
    1.790.738HC3 errors1.27Sebastian, AR63
    1.961.20HC3 errors1.58Allen, IN100
    1.260.827HC3 errors1.04Fresno, CA218
    1.771.21HC3 errors1.49Alachua, FL60
    1.190.487HC3 errors0.840Hall, GA48
    1.260.142HC3 errors0.701Warren, NY42
    1.240.877HC3 errors1.06Kent, MI228
    1.530.618HC3 errors1.07Weld, CO69
    1.570.572HC3 errors1.07Brown, WI69
    1.641.20HC3 errors1.42Guilford, NC169
    1.360.988HC3 errors1.18Greenville, SC221
    1.260.390HC3 errors0.827Harrison, MS137
    1.981.13HC3 errors1.56Washington, MD65
    1.550.981HC3 errors1.27Dauphin, PA126
    1.290.997HC3 errors1.15Capitol, CT272
    1.660.607HC3 errors1.13Forrest, MS45
    1.360.395HC3 errors0.879Catawba, NC78
    1.520.392HC3 errors0.955Hawaii, HI43
    1.360.503HC3 errors0.930Beaufort, SC42
    1.510.360HC3 errors0.936Citrus, FL41
    1.130.623HC3 errors0.874Terrebonne, LA59
    0.8920.758Clustered on counties0.825Harris, TX1,457
    2.120.348Clustered on counties1.24Cabell, WV102
    1.531.08HC3 errors1.30Madison, AL108
    1.481.18Clustered on counties1.33Marion, IN453
    1.590.656HC3 errors1.12Jackson, MI45
    1.501.00Clustered on counties1.25Hinds, MS149
    1.830.819HC3 errors1.32Madison, TN50
    1.531.23Clustered on counties1.38Duval, FL319
    1.470.562HC3 errors1.02Washington, TN53
    2.260.816HC3 errors1.54Jasper, MO42
    2.530.560HC3 errors1.54Maui, HI42
    1.550.897HC3 errors1.22Kalamazoo, MI63
    1.501.05Clustered on counties1.27Jackson, MO556
    1.210.656HC3 errors0.934Benton, WA63
    1.000.383HC3 errors0.694Bell, TX91
    2.040.991Clustered on counties1.51Sullivan, TN77
    1.880.315HC3 errors1.10Ulster, NY41
    1.591.29Clustered on counties1.44Knox, TN198
    1.440.826Clustered on counties1.13Lafayette, LA125
    1.980.909HC3 errors1.44Tippecanoe, IN49
    1.480.741HC3 errors1.11Calcasieu, LA52
    1.290.490HC3 errors0.892Mohave, AZ55
    1.510.881HC3 errors1.20Polk, FL162
    1.570.750HC3 errors1.16Lancaster, PA112
    1.330.912HC3 errors1.12Ingham, MI135
    1.340.641HC3 errors0.991Webb, TX61
    0.970−0.013HC3 errors0.478Doña Ana, NM57
    1.030.735HC3 errors0.885Clark, NV475
    1.530.543HC3 errors1.03Grafton, NH66
    1.840.989Clustered on counties1.41Fayette, KY124
    1.650.994HC3 errors1.32Lancaster, NE74
    1.820.949Clustered on counties1.38Pulaski, AR177
    1.980.429HC3 errors1.20Laurel, KY43
    1.020.470HC3 errors0.744Gregg, TX64
    1.451.15HC3 errors1.30Los Angeles, CA2,923
    1.731.29Clustered on counties1.51Jefferson, KY320
    1.250.097HC3 errors0.675Lubbock, TX97
    1.900.911Clustered on counties1.40Bedford, VA64
    1.681.12Clustered on counties1.40Bibb, GA64
    1.150.419HC3 errors0.782Dane, WI123
    1.550.681HC3 errors1.12Hillsborough, NH99
    0.8880.374HC3 errors0.631Hidalgo, TX208
    1.830.570HC3 errors1.20Jackson, OR51
    1.451.12Clustered on counties1.29Shelby, TN316
    1.320.358HC3 errors0.839Merced, CA60
    0.9220.725HC3 errors0.823Miami-Dade, FL1,377
    1.321.08HC3 errors1.20Milwaukee, WI374
    1.520.938Clustered on counties1.23Hennepin, MN847
    1.611.02HC3 errors1.31Mobile, AL128
    1.350.694HC3 errors1.02Stanislaus, CA111
    1.931.04HC3 errors1.49Ouachita, LA57
    2.141.11HC3 errors1.62Monroe, MI40
    1.490.964HC3 errors1.23Montgomery, AL94
    1.980.493HC3 errors1.24Skagit, WA41
    1.921.19HC3 errors1.56Muskegon, MI44
    1.150.593HC3 errors0.872Horry, SC110
    1.380.423HC3 errors0.902Collier, FL94
    1.550.985Clustered on counties1.27Davidson, TN384
    1.310.818HC3 errors1.06South Central Connecticut, CT128
    1.380.948Clustered on counties1.16Jefferson, LA379
    1.120.421Clustered on counties0.771Kings, NY4,563
    1.921.12HC3 errors1.52Berrien, MI51
    1.190.714HC3 errors0.953Sarasota, FL204
    1.660.818HC3 errors1.24Southeastern Connecticut, CT62
    1.270.541HC3 errors0.906Marion, FL77
    1.961.32HC3 errors1.64Davis, UT134
    1.491.11Clustered on counties1.30Oklahoma, OK380
    2.181.21HC3 errors1.69Thurston, WA60
    1.310.980Clustered on counties1.14Douglas, NE247
    1.030.689HC3 errors0.859Orange, FL460
    1.490.593HC3 errors1.04Ventura, CA182
    1.471.01HC3 errors1.24Brevard, FL140
    1.230.379HC3 errors0.803Bay, FL46
    1.731.17HC3 errors1.45Escambia, FL106
    1.411.07Clustered on counties1.24Peoria, IL104
    1.271.13Clustered on counties1.20Philadelphia, PA1,455
    0.9890.800HC3 errors0.894Maricopa, AZ948
    1.210.893Clustered on counties1.05Allegheny, PA674
    1.450.677HC3 errors1.06Cumberland, ME127
    1.511.21Clustered on counties1.36Multnomah, OR537
    1.671.00HC3 errors1.34St. Lucie, FL102
    2.221.04HC3 errors1.63Schuylkill, PA40
    1.020.313HC3 errors0.666Orange, NY162
    1.260.223HC3 errors0.740Yavapai, AZ70
    1.461.07Clustered on counties1.26Providence, RI357
    1.530.768HC3 errors1.15Utah, UT140
    1.791.14HC3 errors1.47Pueblo, CO55
    1.580.643HC3 errors1.11Charlotte, FL40
    1.420.528HC3 errors0.976Racine, WI41
    1.040.745HC3 errors0.890Wake, NC268
    1.390.967HC3 errors1.18Berks, PA103
    1.730.732HC3 errors1.23Shasta, CA49
    1.670.812HC3 errors1.24Washoe, NV117
    1.361.12Clustered on counties1.24Chesterfield, VA298
    1.150.890HC3 errors1.02Riverside, CA939
    1.820.799Clustered on counties1.31Roanoke, VA75
    1.410.373HC3 errors0.892Olmsted, MN52
    1.391.05Clustered on counties1.22Monroe, NY288
    1.911.01HC3 errors1.46Winnebago, IL88
    1.611.27HC3 errors1.44Sacramento, CA519
    2.091.35HC3 errors1.72Saginaw, MI59
    1.860.503HC3 errors1.18Stearns, MN43
    1.431.07Clustered on counties1.25St. Louis, MO669
    2.150.667HC3 errors1.41Marion, OR78
    1.580.320HC3 errors0.950Monterey, CA96
    1.210.759HC3 errors0.986Sussex, DE105
    1.510.894HC3 errors1.20Salt Lake, UT247
    1.050.647Clustered on counties0.849Bexar, TX453
    1.340.826HC3 errors1.08San Diego, CA681
    3.041.67Clustered on counties2.36Alameda, CA1,044
    1.090.161HC3 errors0.624Santa Clara, CA405
    1.48−0.040HC3 errors0.721San Luis Obispo, CA61
    1.73−0.548HC3 errors0.592Santa Cruz, CA63
    1.030.374HC3 errors0.703Santa Fe, NM52
    1.640.787HC3 errors1.22Santa Barbara, CA98
    2.120.547HC3 errors1.34Sonoma, CA116
    1.280.806HC3 errors1.04Chatham, GA101
    1.641.08HC3 errors1.36Luzerne, PA162
    1.791.34HC3 errors1.56King, WA829
    1.270.555HC3 errors0.914Indian River, FL41
    1.511.01HC3 errors1.26Caddo, LA114
    1.870.709HC3 errors1.29Minnehaha, SD60
    1.511.05HC3 errors1.28St. Joseph, IN92
    1.630.905HC3 errors1.27Spartanburg, SC85
    1.841.26HC3 errors1.55Spokane, WA140
    2.001.14HC3 errors1.57Sangamon, IL56
    1.671.27HC3 errors1.47Hampden, MA151
    2.080.848Clustered on counties1.46Greene, MO111
    2.701.57HC3 errors2.13Clark, OH41
    1.761.15HC3 errors1.46San Joaquin, CA169
    1.430.879HC3 errors1.15Onondaga, NY183
    1.220.803HC3 errors1.01Leon, FL82
    1.100.888HC3 errors0.995Hillsborough, FL692
    2.401.28Clustered on counties1.84Vigo, IN53
    1.640.254HC3 errors0.949Bowie, TX42
    1.421.05HC3 errors1.23Lucas, OH213
    1.321.12Clustered on counties1.22Shawnee, KS59
    1.420.785HC3 errors1.10Grand Traverse, MI43
    1.581.11HC3 errors1.34Mercer, NJ79
    1.300.873HC3 errors1.08Pima, AZ246
    1.480.994Clustered on counties1.24Tulsa, OK304
    1.840.561HC3 errors1.20Lee, MS40
    1.280.561HC3 errors0.920Tuscaloosa, AL69
    1.450.295HC3 errors0.875Smith, TX53
    1.570.764HC3 errors1.16Honolulu, HI286
    2.161.08HC3 errors1.62Oneida, NY83
    2.861.47HC3 errors2.16Solano, CA96
    1.681.04Clustered on counties1.36Virginia Beach, VA436
    1.440.731HC3 errors1.08Tulare, CA101
    1.710.963HC3 errors1.34McLennan, TX55
    1.370.235HC3 errors0.804Houston, GA44
    1.340.861Clustered on counties1.10Fairfax, VA1,350
    1.340.879HC3 errors1.11Naugatuck Valley, CT95
    1.670.512HC3 errors1.09Black Hawk, IA46
    2.510.881HC3 errors1.69Marathon, WI41
    2.191.04HC3 errors1.61Belmont, OH48
    1.511.07HC3 errors1.29Sedgwick, KS164
    2.150.833HC3 errors1.49Wichita, TX44
    1.270.688HC3 errors0.978New Hanover, NC61
    1.590.891Clustered on counties1.24Forsyth, NC161
    1.240.783HC3 errors1.01Worcester, MA184
    1.410.812HC3 errors1.11Yakima, WA56
    1.751.10HC3 errors1.43York, PA105
    2.141.27HC3 errors1.70Mahoning, OH155
    0.485−0.212HC3 errors0.137Yuma, AZ60

    Table 6.2. Distribution

    Metro slopes cluster around a median of 1.20 years per ten-point step, with few metros at either end

    Number of metros by slope of life expectancy on the ADI, years lower per ten-point step, in bins of equal width

    metrosseriesx0x1
    1Estimated slope00.200
    0Estimated slope0.2000.400
    3Estimated slope0.4000.600
    17Estimated slope0.6000.800
    48Estimated slope0.8001
    63Estimated slope11.20
    76Estimated slope1.201.40
    38Estimated slope1.401.60
    14Estimated slope1.601.80
    3Estimated slope1.802
    2Estimated slope22.20
    2Estimated slope2.202.40
    0Estimated slope2.402.60
    0Estimated slope2.602.80

    Source: USALEEP life expectancy, 2010-2015; Area Deprivation Index, 2023; ACS 2019-2023; population-weighted regression slopes, modeled estimates

    Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/place-and-the-length-of-a-life/figures/metro_slopes.json

    Table 7. Life expectancy at birth is steadily worse toward the more deprived end under the ADI and under each of the three other rankings

    Life expectancy at birth (years) by tenth of tracts ranked four ways, over the 71,771 tracts that have all four rankings

    binconf_highconf_lowestimaten_unitsranking
    182.5682.1182.337,179Area Deprivation Index
    281.1880.7380.937,168Area Deprivation Index
    380.5080.1180.307,220Area Deprivation Index
    479.8779.5479.717,108Area Deprivation Index
    579.2578.9379.097,229Area Deprivation Index
    678.5478.2578.407,042Area Deprivation Index
    777.8377.5677.707,298Area Deprivation Index
    877.0576.7776.907,109Area Deprivation Index
    976.0475.7675.907,212Area Deprivation Index
    1074.3473.7974.047,206Area Deprivation Index
    182.5482.1682.377,177Standardized index
    281.2380.9781.107,177Standardized index
    380.4580.2080.327,177Standardized index
    479.7379.4879.617,177Standardized index
    579.1278.8478.977,177Standardized index
    678.4378.0978.267,177Standardized index
    777.8477.4677.657,177Standardized index
    877.1576.6576.897,177Standardized index
    976.3275.7276.007,177Standardized index
    1075.1474.2474.697,178Standardized index
    182.4382.0082.237,177Median household income
    281.0880.8280.957,176Median household income
    380.3980.1380.267,177Median household income
    479.7779.4979.637,176Median household income
    579.1278.8578.997,179Median household income
    678.5378.2378.387,178Median household income
    777.8477.5677.707,176Median household income
    877.1676.8376.997,177Median household income
    976.0175.6275.817,177Median household income
    1074.4473.9274.187,178Median household income
    182.5182.0282.277,178Bachelor's degree share
    281.2780.9281.097,181Bachelor's degree share
    380.4780.1580.317,166Bachelor's degree share
    479.7379.4279.577,182Bachelor's degree share
    578.9978.6878.847,185Bachelor's degree share
    678.4078.0578.227,171Bachelor's degree share
    777.8277.4577.637,175Bachelor's degree share
    877.1976.8177.007,178Bachelor's degree share
    976.4976.0176.247,180Bachelor's degree share
    1075.7174.9375.297,175Bachelor's degree share

    Note: Least and most deprived tenth: ADI 82.3 and 74.0, rank correlation −1.00; standardized index 82.4 and 74.7, −1.00; median household income 82.2 and 74.2, −1.00; bachelor's degree share 82.3 and 75.3, −1.00.

    Note: The standardized index applies the ADI's coefficients to its measures after standardizing each one, so home value and income carry less weight than in the ADI. Income and degree share are single census measures, each ranked from the highest value to the lowest.

    Source: USALEEP life expectancy at birth, 2010-2015, and Area Deprivation Index, 2023; population-weighted (ACS 2019-2023 tract population), modeled estimates; ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 tract tables (B19013, B15003 and the 15 rebuilt ADI measures)

    Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/place-and-the-length-of-a-life/figures/alt_rankings.json

    Table 8. In all 49 states whose tracts reach across at least 4 national tenths, life expectancy is lower in the state's most deprived tenth than in its least deprived tenth

    Life expectancy at birth by national tenth of tracts by ADI, within each state, population-weighted, deaths in 2010 to 2015; the faint line is all states together

    binconf_highconf_lowestimaten_unitsstatesuppressed
    182.5682.1182.337,179USno
    281.1880.7380.937,168USno
    380.5080.1180.307,220USno
    479.8779.5479.717,108USno
    579.2578.9379.097,229USno
    678.5478.2578.407,042USno
    777.8377.5677.707,298USno
    877.0576.7776.907,109USno
    976.0475.7675.907,212USno
    1074.3473.7974.047,206USno
    1n/an/an/a1AKyes
    2n/an/an/a10AKyes
    3n/an/an/a18AKyes
    481.0179.0479.5736AKno
    580.7677.9879.2144AKno
    6n/an/an/a18AKyes
    7n/an/an/a9AKyes
    8n/an/an/a7AKyes
    9n/an/an/a2AKyes
    10n/an/an/a8AKyes
    1n/an/an/a7ALyes
    2n/an/an/a13ALyes
    381.4580.2880.9334ALno
    480.0178.9479.6050ALno
    578.8177.5978.2783ALno
    677.7176.2676.97106ALno
    776.9275.3276.12149ALno
    875.7674.9675.35181ALno
    974.7473.8774.29254ALno
    1073.3672.0472.61320ALno
    1n/an/an/a1ARyes
    2n/an/an/a4ARyes
    3n/an/an/a15ARyes
    4n/an/an/a17ARyes
    579.2777.4178.5043ARno
    678.947777.9946ARno
    777.3276.4176.8784ARno
    876.5275.6576.07125ARno
    975.8674.8575.32165ARno
    1074.6273.3873.91241ARno
    187.5082.7982.9060AZno
    282.5580.5180.77171AZno
    381.9179.6080.08205AZno
    481.0178.8079.30220AZno
    579.9077.3677.92197AZno
    678.4676.8877.21157AZno
    779.0976.8977.43134AZno
    877.6875.9476.59105AZno
    976.4874.6975.4282AZno
    1077.4874.7776.0471AZno
    182.4982.0482.243,373CAno
    280.6580.1580.332,033CAno
    379.5778.8179.091,064CAno
    478.8177.8378.22619CAno
    578.1076.7377.31387CAno
    677.2875.9876.67256CAno
    776.9775.7876.37187CAno
    876.9575.0875.83100CAno
    977.1974.0475.1940CAno
    1077.7574.7476.4233CAno
    182.9081.6482.18182COno
    281.8480.1981304COno
    380.5178.9279.57258COno
    479.437878.64183COno
    579.1377.3477.9697COno
    679.1575.7276.9652COno
    778.8676.2777.3150COno
    878.5675.8176.9627COno
    979.0474.1075.8229COno
    10n/an/an/a13COyes
    1n/an/a84.0362CTno
    2n/an/a82.8064CTno
    3n/an/a82117CTno
    4n/an/a80.81122CTno
    5n/an/a80.19122CTno
    6n/an/a79.0493CTno
    7n/an/a77.5778CTno
    8n/an/a76.6070CTno
    9n/an/a76.2224CTno
    10n/an/an/a5CTyes
    1n/an/a79.5781DCno
    2n/an/a77.4741DCno
    3n/an/an/a18DCyes
    4n/an/a71.9920DCno
    5n/an/an/a5DCyes
    6n/an/an/a1DCyes
    7n/an/an/a0DCyes
    8n/an/an/a0DCyes
    9n/an/an/a0DCyes
    10n/an/an/a0DCyes
    1n/an/an/a5DEyes
    2n/an/an/a10DEyes
    3n/an/a80.4128DEno
    4n/an/a79.0633DEno
    5n/an/a77.8446DEno
    6n/an/a77.4532DEno
    7n/an/a76.4535DEno
    8n/an/an/a11DEyes
    9n/an/an/a4DEyes
    10n/an/an/a5DEyes
    183.5681.8582.87162FLno
    282.1981.2881.80352FLno
    381.5280.6581.08519FLno
    480.3879.6380.04655FLno
    579.2878.6278.95644FLno
    678.6577.7278.18592FLno
    777.5976.5977.07498FLno
    876.6275.2675.93352FLno
    976.0374.4375.22278FLno
    1075.3672.9774.24205FLno
    182.3380.5781.4552GAno
    281.2380.4880.91133GAno
    380.5379.4479.92189GAno
    479.6478.5979.21227GAno
    578.2777.2177.79288GAno
    677.4876.6277.03306GAno
    776.6676.0176.32293GAno
    876.1375.3375.72261GAno
    975.1874.4574.81275GAno
    1074.1373.1373.58260GAno
    1n/an/a82.37213HIno
    2n/an/a80.5275HIno
    3n/an/a81.2243HIno
    4n/an/a79.6923HIno
    5n/an/an/a6HIyes
    6n/an/an/a2HIyes
    7n/an/an/a5HIyes
    8n/an/an/a0HIyes
    9n/an/an/a1HIyes
    10n/an/an/a0HIyes
    1n/an/an/a0IAyes
    2n/an/an/a3IAyes
    3n/an/an/a17IAyes
    482.4280.9181.5346IAno
    582.8580.6781.5669IAno
    682.3380.7881.4698IAno
    780.9479.8580.38123IAno
    879.4078.1978.78175IAno
    978.2077.1077.61199IAno
    1076.9975.4676.14104IAno
    1n/an/an/a18IDyes
    282.3880.2781.3842IDno
    380.8679.4380.5283IDno
    480.1778.6479.5683IDno
    580.2378.8379.4269IDno
    679.3877.8778.4753IDno
    779.2476.9077.8842IDno
    877.8675.0776.1224IDno
    9n/an/an/a3IDyes
    10n/an/an/a0IDyes
    184.3681.9382.8383ILno
    282.9581.3881.84163ILno
    382.2980.9181.39209ILno
    481.1780.1180.37296ILno
    580.8279.3779.86354ILno
    680.0478.3878.86308ILno
    779.6377.4978.18334ILno
    878.9076.6477.66339ILno
    977.9575.5476.67377ILno
    1075.0374.0374.46375ILno
    1n/an/an/a3INyes
    2n/an/an/a14INyes
    381.6280.1680.9444INno
    480.8878.4879.7751INno
    580.8779.3180.07138INno
    679.9178.9179.38184INno
    778.7877.6478.11233INno
    878.0976.8877.45288INno
    976.4975.1975.74273INno
    1073.5172.0472.76290INno
    1n/an/an/a2KSyes
    2n/an/an/a15KSyes
    382.7480.3281.9235KSno
    481.6680.6381.0650KSno
    580.8379.6480.3360KSno
    680.5778.8779.5661KSno
    780.2579.0279.5585KSno
    878.6877.4578.0297KSno
    977.8076.7277.17139KSno
    1076.7774.6375.45193KSno
    1n/an/an/a1KYyes
    2n/an/an/a9KYyes
    382.7878.7381.6834KYno
    480.5478.3979.7951KYno
    579.7478.6879.2975KYno
    678.4277.5677.95114KYno
    777.1776.3576.78134KYno
    875.9575.3075.60185KYno
    974.9474.1274.52258KYno
    1073.5972.4973.04286KYno
    1n/an/an/a12LAyes
    2n/an/an/a18LAyes
    381.3978.4179.9743LAno
    480.1578.5979.4655LAno
    578.9477.6378.3877LAno
    678.2976.9977.61104LAno
    776.9575.9576.42176LAno
    875.9774.9975.44170LAno
    975.1474.1174.59190LAno
    1073.8272.5973.17223LAno
    183.3281.3582.72321MAno
    281.5880.3481.01343MAno
    380.8279.8880.32292MAno
    480.6378.7479.61182MAno
    580.1677.3478.50104MAno
    679.6677.1478.3471MAno
    778.2177.1277.4548MAno
    8n/an/an/a19MAyes
    9n/an/an/a8MAyes
    10n/an/an/a1MAyes
    184.5581.5583.91110MDno
    282.7380.6881.78195MDno
    380.9079.8180.41263MDno
    479.9578.7179.43225MDno
    578.8777.4578.15172MDno
    678.3076.3077.06104MDno
    776.8673.9575.4859MDno
    875.4573.6474.1766MDno
    976.0671.7473.3435MDno
    1074.3869.1870.2842MDno
    1n/an/an/a4MEyes
    2n/an/an/a19MEyes
    381.5280.0680.5231MEno
    482.0378.7479.3734MEno
    579.7578.2578.8941MEno
    679.9277.7778.7649MEno
    778.6677.0477.7839MEno
    877.7276.497743MEno
    977.9875.7477.0344MEno
    10n/an/an/a15MEyes
    1n/an/an/a14MIyes
    284.4082.0982.6740MIno
    381.9281.1081.46109MIno
    481.4680.4580.93195MIno
    580.8079.4480.02225MIno
    679.7078.8679.23304MIno
    778.8977.8378.26359MIno
    878.2377.2177.65377MIno
    977.1675.5676.28391MIno
    1074.8372.7273.36451MIno
    1n/an/an/a14MNyes
    283.4981.9883.1071MNno
    382.3981.6682.04152MNno
    482.2181.3681.71230MNno
    581.8880.3180.92266MNno
    680.7278.9779.71201MNno
    780.4277.8978.99175MNno
    880.3078.8979.55142MNno
    979.4777.4778.4078MNno
    10n/an/an/a17MNyes
    1n/an/an/a5MOyes
    283.0481.1281.6926MOno
    382.3880.0781.5852MOno
    481.6080.0580.9893MOno
    580.3179.0879.82136MOno
    679.0977.9778.62165MOno
    778.4677.3177.84233MOno
    877.3176.4776.87249MOno
    976.1975.1475.68257MOno
    1074.2772.3573.22258MOno
    1n/an/an/a1MSyes
    2n/an/an/a2MSyes
    3n/an/an/a5MSyes
    4n/an/an/a16MSyes
    580.4178.2879.5130MSno
    679.0876.5777.7158MSno
    777.8876.5377.2966MSno
    876.5875.3075.98105MSno
    975.2174.3174.76161MSno
    1074.4173.4673.92277MSno
    1n/an/an/a7MTyes
    281.5080.0780.9823MTno
    381.1179.9180.3934MTno
    480.4579.1979.6546MTno
    580.2078.3779.1850MTno
    680.2177.8678.8435MTno
    779.3276.2777.6832MTno
    878.0275.9076.6235MTno
    976.9773.4975.0223MTno
    10n/an/an/a7MTyes
    182.7181.4281.9644NCno
    281.9380.8581.47107NCno
    380.5279.5380.14194NCno
    480.3979.6380.05198NCno
    579.2478.3878.84245NCno
    678.5577.7178.14257NCno
    777.4276.7177.02321NCno
    876.6575.9376.30362NCno
    975.9975.3275.66317NCno
    1074.6273.5874.08243NCno
    1n/an/an/a0NDyes
    2n/an/an/a0NDyes
    3n/an/an/a9NDyes
    4n/an/an/a19NDyes
    581.9380.3481.2931NDno
    681.5779.2880.4933NDno
    779.3277.1378.4436NDno
    879.3577.0878.1628NDno
    980.0277.8278.9240NDno
    10n/an/an/a13NDyes
    1n/an/an/a1NEyes
    2n/an/an/a4NEyes
    382.9880.7281.2625NEno
    482.2280.4181.1144NEno
    582.8880.3481.2442NEno
    681.2279.9580.5061NEno
    779.8978.4579.0381NEno
    879.6577.8378.63102NEno
    979.0476.5277.5496NEno
    1078.3873.4375.2142NEno
    1n/an/an/a10NHyes
    281.8980.3480.9528NHno
    381.1180.1180.5771NHno
    482.8579.8480.8066NHno
    581.7779.1280.1160NHno
    680.2677.2278.4843NHno
    778.3876.3877.3424NHno
    8n/an/an/a10NHyes
    9n/an/an/a3NHyes
    10n/an/an/a1NHyes
    183.6682.1583.05206NJno
    282.4080.8781.67325NJno
    381.1580.1780.68406NJno
    479.9279.1979.52334NJno
    578.8277.6878.24248NJno
    678.0276.0977.06135NJno
    778.0176.4077.2196NJno
    876.7575.0775.9943NJno
    979.0774.7976.1625NJno
    1074.1171.7172.8024NJno
    1n/an/an/a9NMyes
    2n/an/an/a16NMyes
    3n/an/an/a19NMyes
    482.5479.4581.0336NMno
    581.1479.2680.0761NMno
    680.0378.5879.1857NMno
    780.1877.5278.4462NMno
    879.7776.7977.8075NMno
    977.8076.1776.9973NMno
    1077.6175.4876.4385NMno
    182.1279.818137NVno
    281.0979.5380.4371NVno
    379.8477.9478.93127NVno
    479.5077.4578.42134NVno
    578.1775.9976.7596NVno
    678.0975.0675.6378NVno
    776.357475.0446NVno
    877.9274.4875.9726NVno
    9n/an/an/a13NVyes
    10n/an/an/a11NVyes
    183.5281.2182.231,082NYno
    281.5480.1280.86904NYno
    381.4479.8880.58405NYno
    482.2080.5381.34260NYno
    581.9580.8781.38223NYno
    681.5480.3580.93227NYno
    781.0379.8380.48286NYno
    880.8479.3180.04289NYno
    979.4977.7978.67318NYno
    1078.0375.3476.53253NYno
    1n/an/an/a16OHyes
    283.7980.8582.3740OHno
    382.0380.8981.41105OHno
    480.7779.7080.12133OHno
    580.6280.0380.31225OHno
    679.4678.6779.04309OHno
    778.6277.6878.13422OHno
    877.7176.5977.14458OHno
    976.1374.9475.57464OHno
    1073.2572.2472.75599OHno
    1n/an/an/a3OKyes
    2n/an/an/a9OKyes
    3n/an/an/a17OKyes
    481.1578.5680.2937OKno
    580.5478.8779.6778OKno
    678.7977.4278.2599OKno
    778.0277.1177.57134OKno
    876.4075.4375.86152OKno
    976.0774.9275.44286OKno
    1073.8172.4772.93265OKno
    183.6281.6482.6469ORno
    282.0679.9380.87194ORno
    380.3378.9279.57207ORno
    479.7478.0178.89172ORno
    578.3077.1677.68132ORno
    677.3775.9276.5774ORno
    778.3376.2877.2743ORno
    8n/an/an/a16ORyes
    9n/an/an/a8ORyes
    10n/an/an/a2ORyes
    182.8580.7182.1550PAno
    282.0680.7281.66137PAno
    381.4980.4981.06250PAno
    481.1479.3980.26247PAno
    580.5279.0279.81330PAno
    680.0278.7279.38354PAno
    779.0977.8578.49420PAno
    878.4077.2077.81406PAno
    977.6075.9276.69401PAno
    1074.6773.0473.75421PAno
    1n/an/an/a8RIyes
    2n/an/a81.6623RIno
    3n/an/a80.5238RIno
    4n/an/a80.0742RIno
    5n/an/a78.3462RIno
    6n/an/a76.5628RIno
    7n/an/an/a10RIyes
    8n/an/an/a4RIyes
    9n/an/an/a1RIyes
    10n/an/an/a0RIyes
    182.7680.4781.4521SCno
    283.6679.7981.0937SCno
    380.9379.6280.1651SCno
    480.7279.0179.8983SCno
    579.2678.2478.8395SCno
    678.3177.3477.86137SCno
    777.6176.3776.98165SCno
    876.5075.5076140SCno
    975.5074.5874.99183SCno
    1074.3873.4973.90236SCno
    1n/an/an/a0SDyes
    2n/an/an/a2SDyes
    3n/an/an/a8SDyes
    483.3081.0582.3921SDno
    584.1280.9281.9522SDno
    681.2479.6180.3934SDno
    780.7279.1379.8248SDno
    880.4677.2978.7532SDno
    978.9776.5477.5538SDno
    10n/an/an/a18SDyes
    181.978081.7326TNno
    281.4377.8780.0940TNno
    380.4178.2279.1986TNno
    479.3277.4278.46137TNno
    578.2576.7877.47148TNno
    677.0975.9776.55208TNno
    775.9775.1675.58190TNno
    875.2374.4174.80213TNno
    973.8873.3173.61237TNno
    1073.0171.5972.04177TNno
    182.2280.8681.75189TXno
    281.0480.4080.69303TXno
    380.9380.0880.49445TXno
    479.9379.3579.64529TXno
    579.5878.7679.15596TXno
    678.677878.31658TXno
    778.4277.5277.97650TXno
    877.7976.6377.11712TXno
    977.0375.9476.46706TXno
    1077.1574.6975.92756TXno
    181.9881.4881.7345UTno
    282.3380.6581.14130UTno
    381.2679.4380.18150UTno
    479.9877.8078.50133UTno
    578.8176.8077.5683UTno
    680.7377.1478.3848UTno
    7n/an/an/a18UTyes
    8n/an/an/a3UTyes
    9n/an/an/a2UTyes
    10n/an/an/a3UTyes
    183.3081.7782.74213VAno
    281.8280.4181.33219VAno
    380.6879.5980.09232VAno
    48079.0479.53196VAno
    579.0878.0878.62213VAno
    678.0476.6377.36206VAno
    776.8575.8376.34173VAno
    875.7274.5875.15146VAno
    975.4474.3774.94137VAno
    1074.4172.8273.55101VAno
    1n/an/an/a0VTyes
    2n/an/an/a9VTyes
    3n/an/an/a16VTyes
    484.0880.7681.6831VTno
    583.3380.7781.9133VTno
    682.7280.5981.7140VTno
    781.1779.2180.2027VTno
    878.9677.0378.0821VTno
    9n/an/an/a4VTyes
    10n/an/an/a0VTyes
    182.9481.6882.34343WAno
    281.7980.2980.63358WAno
    380.5779.2079.64351WAno
    479.3377.6078.35240WAno
    578.8777.6078.15129WAno
    678.8477.0777.9497WAno
    777.9175.4676.6070WAno
    879.5875.1676.9925WAno
    9n/an/an/a8WAyes
    10n/an/an/a5WAyes
    1n/an/an/a6WIyes
    2n/an/an/a16WIyes
    381.7480.0281.3481WIno
    481.6580.6781.03133WIno
    580.7979.8780.31200WIno
    68179.9980.48218WIno
    779.8578.5679.15256WIno
    878.3476.9877.56194WIno
    977.9376.5377.17144WIno
    1076.6873.6774.1775WIno

    The first 500 of 520 rows; every row is in figures/le_state_tiles.json.

    Note: A state's tenth with fewer than 20 tracts is left empty, so lines break. Intervals are from a bootstrap over counties; a state with too few counties for the bootstrap (Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Rhode Island and the District of Columbia) has no band.

    Source: USALEEP life expectancy at birth, 2010-2015, and Area Deprivation Index, 2023; population-weighted (ACS 2019-2023 tract population), modeled estimates

    Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/place-and-the-length-of-a-life/figures/le_state_tiles.json

    All estimates

    Every fact in facts.json (113), sorted by id. The same values as JSON: facts.json.

    Fact idValueUnitEstimandPopulationPeriodIntervalnWeightsSourceNote
    adi_within34%percent of the variance of the ADI national percentileshare of the population-weighted variance of the ADI national percentile that lies between tracts in the same county (sum-of-squares decomposition)tracts in the 50 states and DC with all nine measures, an ACS population above zero and an ADI rankACS 2019-2023; ADI 202382,545 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationArea Deprivation Index
    alt_adi_least82.3Life expectancy at birth (years)population-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at birth; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over countiesthe least deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Area Deprivation Index, among the tracts with all four rankingsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population95% CI 82.1 to 82.67,179 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    alt_adi_most74.0Life expectancy at birth (years)population-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at birth; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over countiesthe most deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Area Deprivation Index, among the tracts with all four rankingsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population95% CI 73.8 to 74.37,206 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    alt_adi_rho−1.00rank correlationSpearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted oncethe bins of tracts ranked by Area Deprivation Indexdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationeach bin counted onceUSALEEP life expectancy
    alt_degree_least82.3Life expectancy at birth (years)population-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at birth; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over countiesthe least deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Bachelor's degree share, among the tracts with all four rankingsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population95% CI 82.0 to 82.57,178 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    alt_degree_most75.3Life expectancy at birth (years)population-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at birth; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over countiesthe most deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Bachelor's degree share, among the tracts with all four rankingsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population95% CI 74.9 to 75.77,175 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    alt_degree_rho−1.00rank correlationSpearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted oncethe bins of tracts ranked by Bachelor's degree sharedeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationeach bin counted onceUSALEEP life expectancy
    alt_income_least82.2Life expectancy at birth (years)population-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at birth; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over countiesthe least deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Median household income, among the tracts with all four rankingsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population95% CI 82.0 to 82.47,177 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    alt_income_most74.2Life expectancy at birth (years)population-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at birth; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over countiesthe most deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Median household income, among the tracts with all four rankingsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population95% CI 73.9 to 74.47,178 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    alt_income_rho−1.00rank correlationSpearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted oncethe bins of tracts ranked by Median household incomedeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationeach bin counted onceUSALEEP life expectancy
    alt_n_places71,771tractscount of tracts in the common sample of the ranking comparisontracts with the outcome and all four rankingsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationnone (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    alt_rho_cut0.9absolute rank correlationthreshold between a steady and an uneven gradientthe rule for changed gradients (docs/RANKING_SWITCH_RULE.md)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationnone (a fixed rule)USALEEP life expectancy
    alt_rho_margin0.1absolute rank correlationsmallest move in the rank correlation that counts as a change of shapethe rule for changed gradients (docs/RANKING_SWITCH_RULE.md)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationnone (a fixed rule)USALEEP life expectancy
    alt_std_least82.4Life expectancy at birth (years)population-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at birth; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over countiesthe least deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Standardized index, among the tracts with all four rankingsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population95% CI 82.2 to 82.57,177 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    alt_std_most74.7Life expectancy at birth (years)population-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at birth; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over countiesthe most deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Standardized index, among the tracts with all four rankingsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population95% CI 74.2 to 75.17,178 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    alt_std_rho−1.00rank correlationSpearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted oncethe bins of tracts ranked by Standardized indexdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationeach bin counted onceUSALEEP life expectancy
    chk_delta3.6percentage points of adults, higher in the most deprived tenth of tractsdifference between the weighted mean prevalence of the least deprived and the most deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentile, bootstrap interval over counties (draws shared by the two means)adults: routine checkup in the past yearBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 202395% CI 2.4 to 4.68,213 tractsadult population of the tract (PLACES)CDC PLACES
    chk_hi77.8%percent of adultsweighted mean of the tract prevalence in a tenth of tracts (rank bins of the ADI; tracts with tied ranks fall in the same tenth), bootstrap interval over countiesadults in the most deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentile: routine checkup in the past yearBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 202395% CI 77.3% to 78.2%8,213 tractsadult population of the tract (PLACES)CDC PLACES
    chk_lo74.2%percent of adultsweighted mean of the tract prevalence in a tenth of tracts (rank bins of the ADI; tracts with tied ranks fall in the same tenth), bootstrap interval over countiesadults in the least deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentile: routine checkup in the past yearBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 202395% CI 73.2% to 75.3%8,274 tractsadult population of the tract (PLACES)CDC PLACES
    ladder_county1.12years of life expectancy at birth lower per ten-point step in the ADI national percentilepopulation-weighted least-squares slope of tract life expectancy on the ADI national percentile, times ten, sign reversed, with a constant for each county; cluster-robust interval (t on the number of counties minus one)residents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population95% CI 1.07 to 1.1677,722 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    ladder_raw0.84years of life expectancy at birth lower per ten-point step in the ADI national percentilepopulation-weighted least-squares slope of tract life expectancy on the ADI national percentile, times ten, sign reversed; cluster-robust interval (t on the number of states minus one)residents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population95% CI 0.75 to 0.9277,936 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    le_d182.3years of life expectancy at birthpopulation-weighted mean of tract life expectancy in a tenth of tracts (rank bins of the ADI; tracts with tied ranks fall in the same tenth), bootstrap interval over countiesresidents of tracts in the least deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentiledeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population95% CI 82.0 to 82.67,820 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    le_d1074.0years of life expectancy at birthpopulation-weighted mean of tract life expectancy in a tenth of tracts (rank bins of the ADI; tracts with tied ranks fall in the same tenth), bootstrap interval over countiesresidents of tracts in the most deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentiledeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population95% CI 73.7 to 74.37,844 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    le_decile_drop8.3years of life expectancy at birth lower in the most deprived tenth of tractsdifference between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of the least and the most deprived tenth of tracts, bootstrap interval over counties (draws shared by the two means)residents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population95% CI 7.9 to 8.77,844 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    le_step_first1.3years of life expectancy at birth, first tenth minus second tenth of tracts by ADIdifference between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of the least deprived tenth and the next tenth, bootstrap interval over counties (draws shared)residents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population95% CI 1.0 to 1.67,820 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    le_step_last1.9years of life expectancy at birth, ninth tenth minus tenth tenth of tracts by ADIdifference between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of the ninth tenth and the most deprived tenth, bootstrap interval over counties (draws shared)residents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population95% CI 1.6 to 2.17,844 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    metro_flat_edge0.70years of life expectancy at birth lower per ten-point step in the ADI national percentile5th percentile over metros of the estimated metro slope, sign reversedresidents of metros (core-based statistical areas) with at least 40 tracts that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population267 metrosnone (each metro counts once)USALEEP life expectancyA percentile of estimates, which are stretched by estimation error.
    metro_floor40tractsminimum number of tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rank for a metro to enter (rule)metrosdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationnone (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    metro_median1.20years of life expectancy at birth lower per ten-point step in the ADI national percentilemedian over metros of the metro slope, sign reversed; bootstrap interval over metrosresidents of metros (core-based statistical areas) with at least 40 tracts that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population95% CI 1.14 to 1.23267 metrosnone (each metro counts once)USALEEP life expectancy
    metro_n_lower267metroscount of metros with life expectancy lower in more deprived tracts: the reported slope (years lower per ten-point step) is above zeroresidents of metros (core-based statistical areas) with at least 40 tracts that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population267 metrosnone (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    metro_n_sig260metroscount of metros whose 95% interval for the reported slope lies above zeroresidents of metros (core-based statistical areas) with at least 40 tracts that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population267 metrosnone (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    metro_noise48%percent of the variance of the estimated metro slopesmean squared standard error of the metro slopes over the variance of the estimated slopes across metrosresidents of metros (core-based statistical areas) with at least 40 tracts that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population267 metrosnone (each metro counts once)USALEEP life expectancyThe standard errors treat tracts as independent in metros with fewer than five counties, so this share may be too small.
    metro_pop_share82%percent of residentsshare of residents of the tract sample who live in the metros of the analysisresidents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population267 metrosACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    metro_steep_edge1.67years of life expectancy at birth lower per ten-point step in the ADI national percentile95th percentile over metros of the estimated metro slope, sign reversedresidents of metros (core-based statistical areas) with at least 40 tracts that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population267 metrosnone (each metro counts once)USALEEP life expectancyA percentile of estimates, which are stretched by estimation error.
    mto_age_cut13years of agethe age below which Chetty, Hendren and Katz (2016) find the gain in income (definition from the study)children in the Moving to Opportunity experimentage when the family movednone (definition)Published estimates from cited studies
    mto_bmi_cut40kilograms per square meter (body-mass index)the body-mass index at or above which Ludwig and coauthors (2011) count a woman as extremely obese (definition from the study)women in the Moving to Opportunity experimenthealth measured in 2008 to 2010none (definition)Published estimates from cited studies
    mto_diab_diff4.3percentage points lower prevalence of glycated hemoglobin of 6.5% or more in the low-poverty voucher group than in the control groupLudwig and coauthors (2011), New England Journal of Medicine: 4,498 women with children living in public housing in high-poverty census tracts, randomly assigned in 1994 to 1998 to a voucher usable only in a low-poverty tract, an unrestricted voucher or no voucher; health measured in 2008 to 2010 (intention to treat); reported absolute difference in the prevalence of a glycated hemoglobin level of 6.5% or more, copied from the abstract and not computed in this buildwomen in the Moving to Opportunity experimenthealth measured in 2008 to 201095% CI 0.8 to 7.8none (reported estimate)Published estimates from cited studiesA published estimate, not a result of this build.
    mto_hba1c_cut6.5%percent glycated hemoglobinthe glycated hemoglobin level at or above which Ludwig and coauthors (2011) count a woman as having diabetes (definition from the study)women in the Moving to Opportunity experimenthealth measured in 2008 to 2010none (definition)Published estimates from cited studies
    mto_income_itt14%percent higher annual income in the mid-twenties than the control group (intention to treat, $1,624)Chetty, Hendren and Katz (2016), American Economic Review (NBER working paper 21156): children below age 13 at random assignment, individual earnings in the mid-twenties, control mean $11,270; intention-to-treat effect of assignment to the experimental voucher group, $1,624, a 14 percent increase; read in the text of the working paper and not computed in this buildchildren below age 13 at random assignment to the experimental voucher group of the Moving to Opportunity experimentincome in the mid-twentiesnone (reported estimate)Published estimates from cited studiesA published estimate, not a result of this build.
    mto_income_tot31%percent higher annual income in the mid-twenties among families that took up the voucher (treatment on the treated, $3,477)Chetty, Hendren and Katz (2016), American Economic Review (NBER working paper 21156): children below age 13 at random assignment, individual earnings in the mid-twenties, control mean $11,270; treatment-on-the-treated effect for families that took up the experimental voucher, the intention-to-treat effect scaled by the take-up rate, $3,477, a 31 percent increase; read in the text of the working paper and not computed in this buildchildren below age 13 whose families took up the experimental voucher in the Moving to Opportunity experimentincome in the mid-twentiesnone (reported estimate)Published estimates from cited studiesA published estimate, not a result of this build.
    mto_obese_diff3.4percentage points lower prevalence of a body-mass index of 40 or more in the low-poverty voucher group than in the control groupLudwig and coauthors (2011), New England Journal of Medicine: 4,498 women with children living in public housing in high-poverty census tracts, randomly assigned in 1994 to 1998 to a voucher usable only in a low-poverty tract, an unrestricted voucher or no voucher; health measured in 2008 to 2010 (intention to treat); reported absolute difference in the prevalence of a body-mass index of 40 or more, copied from the abstract and not computed in this buildwomen in the Moving to Opportunity experimenthealth measured in 2008 to 201095% CI 0.4 to 6.4none (reported estimate)Published estimates from cited studiesA published estimate, not a result of this build.
    mto_takeup48%percent of families assigned the experimental voucher who took it upChetty, Hendren and Katz (2016): take-up rate of the experimental voucher; read in the text of the working paper (NBER w21156) and not computed in this buildfamilies in the experimental voucher group of the Moving to Opportunity experimenttake-up of the vouchernone (reported estimate)Published estimates from cited studiesA published estimate, not a result of this build.
    n_cloud4,000tractssize of the random sample of tracts drawn with a fixed seed for the scatter (rule)residents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population77,936 tractsnone (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    n_gradient_tracts77,936tractscount of tracts in the gradientresidents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationnone (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    n_metros267metroscount of metrosresidents of metros (core-based statistical areas) with at least 40 tracts that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationnone (full count)USALEEP life expectancyMetropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas; each tract takes the area of its county (Census county file).
    n_no_pair3countiescount of counties with no pair whose ADI difference reaches the minimumthe 20 most populous countiesdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsnone (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    n_pair_pool4,917tractscount of tracts from which the pairs are drawntracts of the 20 most populous counties that pass the floors of the rule: boundary unchanged since 2010, not institutional, at least 2,000 residents, a standard error of at most 2.0 years, an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsnone (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    n_pair_tracts13,625tractscount of tracts searched2020 tracts of the 20 most populous counties with an ACS population above zero and a life expectancy estimatedeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsnone (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    n_pairs17pairs of tractscount of counties with such a pair (one pair per county)counties among the 20 most populous with a pair that meets the ruledeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsnone (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    n_spread_counties30countiesnumber of most populous counties in the county spread (rule)counties and county equivalents of the 50 states and DCdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationnone (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    nyc_borough_mean_range4.2years of life expectancy at birth between the highest and the lowest borough mean of tract life expectancylargest minus smallest of the five boroughs' population-weighted mean of tract life expectancyresidents of non-institutional tracts in the five boroughs of New York City (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens and Richmond counties) that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population5 boroughsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancyA spread of five means and a range of tract estimates are not the same kind of contrast.
    nyc_borough_range_min9.3years of life expectancy at birth between the 5th and 95th percentile of tracts in a boroughsmallest of the five boroughs' population-weighted 95th minus 5th percentile of tract life expectancy (it is Richmond County's), each borough counted onceresidents of non-institutional tracts in the five boroughs of New York City (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens and Richmond counties) that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population5 boroughsnone (each borough counts once)USALEEP life expectancyThe percentiles are of modeled tract estimates, so part of the range is estimation error.
    nyc_borough_range_min_net6.9years of life expectancy at birth between the 5th and 95th percentile of tracts in a borough, net of estimation errorsmallest of the five boroughs' 5th to 95th percentile range after shrinking the tract estimates toward the borough mean by the square root of one minus the share of the variance that is estimation error (published standard errors, normal approximation), each borough counted onceresidents of non-institutional tracts in the five boroughs of New York City (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens and Richmond counties) that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population5 boroughsnone (each borough counts once)USALEEP life expectancyThe 2020-tract standard errors are mapping grade and understate the noise, so the range net of error is an upper bound.
    nyc_n_gray250tractscount of gray tracts on the map: no residents in the ACS, no life expectancy estimate, an institutional population, or no ADI rank2020 tracts of the five boroughs of New York City (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens and Richmond counties) that are not in the gradient sampledeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationnone (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    nyc_n_shaded2,074tractscount of tracts shaded on the New York City map: the tracts of the gradient sample that lie in the five boroughsnon-institutional tracts in the five boroughs of New York City (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens and Richmond counties) with a life expectancy estimate, an ACS 2019-2023 population above zero and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationnone (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    nyc_noise37%percent of the variance of tract life expectancy across the five boroughspopulation-weighted mean squared standard error of the tract estimates over their population-weighted variance (the published errors taken at face value)residents of non-institutional tracts in the five boroughs of New York City (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens and Richmond counties) that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population2,074 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancyThe 2020-tract errors are mapping grade and understate the noise, so the share is a lower bound.
    nyc_se_median2.0years of life expectancymedian over the shaded tracts of the standard error of tract life expectancy, each tract counted onceresidents of non-institutional tracts in the five boroughs of New York City (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens and Richmond counties) that have a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population2,074 tractsnone (each tract counts once)USALEEP life expectancyThe 2020-tract standard errors are mapping grade and understate the error of the area-weighted estimates.
    pair_adi_min50percentile points of the ADI national percentilesmallest difference in ADI between the two tracts for a pair to count (rule)pairs of tractsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsnone (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    pair_n_counties20countiesnumber of most populous counties searched for a pair (rule)counties and county equivalents of the 50 states and DCdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsnone (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    pair_pop_floor2,000residentssmallest ACS 2019-2023 population of a tract that enters a pair (rule)tracts in a pairdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsnone (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    pair_radius5kilometerslargest straight-line distance between the Census internal points of the two tracts (rule)pairs of tractsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsnone (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    pair_se_cap2.0years of life expectancylargest standard error of the USALEEP life expectancy of a tract that enters a pair (rule)tracts in a pairdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsnone (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    pair_stable_share99%percent of land areasmallest share of the land area of the 2010 tract and of the 2020 tract that two tracts with one GEOID must share for the boundary to count as unchanged (rule)tracts present in both the 2010 and the 2020 censusdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsnone (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    pairs_median_gap5.4years of life expectancy at birth, less deprived tract minus more deprived tractmedian over the pairs of the difference in life expectancy, each pair counted once; bootstrap interval over pairsresidents of the tracts of one pair per county: in each of the 20 most populous counties, the two tracts within 5 kilometers of each other with the widest difference in ADI, where that difference is at least 50 percentile pointsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tracts95% CI 3.0 to 6.917 pairs of tractsnone (each pair counts once)USALEEP life expectancyThe two tracts of a pair are chosen on the ADI and not on life expectancy, so the difference is not selected for size.
    pairs_median_km32.7years of life expectancy at birth, less deprived tract minus more deprived tractmedian over pairs of the difference in life expectancy, each pair counted oncepairs chosen by the same rule with 3 kilometers in place of the main setting, in counties where a pair meets the ADI minimumdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tracts17 pairs of tractsnone (each pair counts once)USALEEP life expectancy
    pairs_median_km85.1years of life expectancy at birth, less deprived tract minus more deprived tractmedian over pairs of the difference in life expectancy, each pair counted oncepairs chosen by the same rule with 8 kilometers in place of the main setting, in counties where a pair meets the ADI minimumdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tracts18 pairs of tractsnone (each pair counts once)USALEEP life expectancy
    pairs_median_pop40005.5years of life expectancy at birth, less deprived tract minus more deprived tractmedian over pairs of the difference in life expectancy, each pair counted oncepairs chosen by the same rule with a population floor of 4,000 in place of the main setting, in counties where a pair meets the ADI minimumdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tracts16 pairs of tractsnone (each pair counts once)USALEEP life expectancy
    pairs_median_se154.3years of life expectancy at birth, less deprived tract minus more deprived tractmedian over pairs of the difference in life expectancy, each pair counted oncepairs chosen by the same rule with a standard-error cap of 1.5 years in place of the main setting, in counties where a pair meets the ADI minimumdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tracts15 pairs of tractsnone (each pair counts once)USALEEP life expectancy
    pairs_median_se306.2years of life expectancy at birth, less deprived tract minus more deprived tractmedian over pairs of the difference in life expectancy, each pair counted oncepairs chosen by the same rule with a standard-error cap of 3.0 years in place of the main setting, in counties where a pair meets the ADI minimumdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tracts17 pairs of tractsnone (each pair counts once)USALEEP life expectancy
    pairs_median_senone4.6years of life expectancy at birth, less deprived tract minus more deprived tractmedian over pairs of the difference in life expectancy, each pair counted oncepairs chosen by the same rule with no standard-error cap in place of the main setting, in counties where a pair meets the ADI minimumdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tracts18 pairs of tractsnone (each pair counts once)USALEEP life expectancy
    pairs_n_clear12pairs of tractscount of pairs whose 95% interval for the difference, which treats the two standard errors as independent, lies above zeroresidents of the tracts of one pair per county: in each of the 20 most populous counties, the two tracts within 5 kilometers of each other with the widest difference in ADI, where that difference is at least 50 percentile pointsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tracts17 pairs of tractsnone (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    pairs_n_higher15pairs of tractscount of pairs in which the less deprived tract has the higher life expectancy estimateresidents of the tracts of one pair per county: in each of the 20 most populous counties, the two tracts within 5 kilometers of each other with the widest difference in ADI, where that difference is at least 50 percentile pointsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tracts17 pairs of tractsnone (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    pairs_n_se1515pairs of tractscount of counties with such a pair (one pair per county)pairs chosen by the same rule with a standard-error cap of 1.5 years, in counties where a pair meets the ADI minimumdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsnone (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    pairs_n_senone18pairs of tractscount of counties with such a pair (one pair per county)pairs chosen by the same rule with no standard-error cap, in counties where a pair meets the ADI minimumdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsnone (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    pairs_pop_alt4,000residentslarger population floor tried (sensitivity)tracts in a pairdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsnone (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    pairs_radius_km33kilometerssmaller radius tried (sensitivity)pairs of tractsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsnone (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    pairs_radius_km88kilometerslarger radius tried (sensitivity)pairs of tractsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsnone (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    pairs_se_alt_hi3.0years of life expectancylarger standard-error cap tried (sensitivity)tracts in a pairdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsnone (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    pairs_se_alt_lo1.5years of life expectancysmaller standard-error cap tried (sensitivity)tracts in a pairdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsnone (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    pw_adi_hi94ADI national percentileArea Deprivation Index national percentile of one tract (mean of its block groups' ranks), roundedthe more deprived tract of the widest pairdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tracts1 tractsnone (one tract)USALEEP life expectancy
    pw_adi_lo24ADI national percentileArea Deprivation Index national percentile of one tract (mean of its block groups' ranks), roundedthe less deprived tract of the widest pairdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tracts1 tractsnone (one tract)USALEEP life expectancy
    pw_gap12.4years of life expectancy at birth, less deprived tract minus more deprived tractdifference between the USALEEP life expectancy of the less deprived and the more deprived tract; 95% interval treats the two standard errors as independentresidents of two tracts of Cook County, IL, within 5 kilometers of each other (the pair of that county with the widest ADI difference)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tracts95% CI 7.6 to 17.22 tractsnone (two tracts)USALEEP life expectancyThe widest of the 17 pairs by life expectancy, so its estimate is the likeliest to include noise that raised the gap.
    pw_km5.0kilometersstraight-line distance between the Census internal points of the two tractsresidents of two tracts of Cook County, IL, within 5 kilometers of each other (the pair of that county with the widest ADI difference)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tractsnone (one pair)USALEEP life expectancy
    pw_le_hi65.8years of life expectancy at birthUSALEEP life expectancy at birth of one tract (native 2010 tract), 95% interval of 1.96 standard errorsresidents of the more deprived tract of the pair, Census Tract 4910deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tracts95% CI 62.5 to 69.11 tractsnone (one tract)USALEEP life expectancy
    pw_le_lo78.2years of life expectancy at birthUSALEEP life expectancy at birth of one tract (native 2010 tract), 95% interval of 1.96 standard errorsresidents of the less deprived tract of the pair, Census Tract 7201deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, native 2010 tracts); ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 on the same tracts95% CI 74.7 to 81.71 tractsnone (one tract)USALEEP life expectancy
    smk_delta13.7percentage points of adults, higher in the most deprived tenth of tractsdifference between the weighted mean prevalence of the least deprived and the most deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentile, bootstrap interval over counties (draws shared by the two means)adults: current cigarette smokingBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 202395% CI 13.1 to 14.48,213 tractsadult population of the tract (PLACES)CDC PLACES
    smk_hi22.8%percent of adultsweighted mean of the tract prevalence in a tenth of tracts (rank bins of the ADI; tracts with tied ranks fall in the same tenth), bootstrap interval over countiesadults in the most deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentile: current cigarette smokingBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 202395% CI 22.5% to 23.1%8,213 tractsadult population of the tract (PLACES)CDC PLACES
    smk_lo9.1%percent of adultsweighted mean of the tract prevalence in a tenth of tracts (rank bins of the ADI; tracts with tied ranks fall in the same tenth), bootstrap interval over countiesadults in the least deprived tenth of tracts by ADI national percentile: current cigarette smokingBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 202395% CI 8.5% to 9.6%8,274 tractsadult population of the tract (PLACES)CDC PLACES
    spread_median10.5years of life expectancy at birth between the 5th and 95th percentile of tractsmedian over counties of the population-weighted 95th minus 5th percentile of tract life expectancy, each county counted onceresidents of the 30 most populous counties and Connecticut planning regionsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population30 countiesnone (each county counts once)USALEEP life expectancyThe percentiles are of modeled tract estimates, so part of the range is estimation error.
    spread_median_1510.5years of life expectancy at birth between the 5th and 95th percentile of tractsmedian over counties of the population-weighted 95th minus 5th percentile of tract life expectancy, each county counted onceresidents of the 15 most populous counties and Connecticut planning regionsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population15 countiesnone (each county counts once)USALEEP life expectancy
    spread_median_6010.5years of life expectancy at birth between the 5th and 95th percentile of tractsmedian over counties of the population-weighted 95th minus 5th percentile of tract life expectancy, each county counted onceresidents of the 60 most populous counties and Connecticut planning regionsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population60 countiesnone (each county counts once)USALEEP life expectancy
    spread_median_net7.7years of life expectancy at birth between the 5th and 95th percentile of tracts, net of estimation errormedian over counties of the 5th to 95th percentile range after shrinking the tract estimates toward the county mean by the square root of one minus the share of the variance that is estimation error (published standard errors, normal approximation)residents of the 30 most populous counties and Connecticut planning regionsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population30 countiesnone (each county counts once)USALEEP life expectancyThe 2020-tract standard errors are mapping grade and understate the noise, so the range net of error is an upper bound.
    spread_n_1515countiessmaller or larger number of counties tried (sensitivity)counties and county equivalents of the 50 states and DCdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationnone (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    spread_n_6060countiessmaller or larger number of counties tried (sensitivity)counties and county equivalents of the 50 states and DCdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationnone (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    spread_noise_median43%percent of the variance of tract life expectancy within the countymedian over counties of the mean squared standard error of tract life expectancy over the population-weighted variance of tract life expectancy in the countyresidents of the 30 most populous counties and Connecticut planning regionsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population30 countiesnone (each county counts once)USALEEP life expectancy
    spread_widest13.9years of life expectancy at birth between the 5th and 95th percentile of tractspopulation-weighted 95th minus 5th percentile of tract life expectancy in the county with the widest range among the 30 most populousresidents of Cook County, ILdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population1,221 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancyIncludes estimation error.
    st_min_tracts20tractsdefinition: the fewest tracts a state's tenth needs for an estimatea state's tenth of tractsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationnone (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    st_span4national tenthsdefinition: the fewest national tenths, first to last, a state's estimated tenths must span to be counteda state's tractsdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationnone (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    st_with_span49statescount of states (50 and DC) meeting the stated rule, from population-weighted tract means by national ADI tenthstates whose estimated national ADI tenths of tracts run at least 3 tenths apartdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationnone (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    tenth_max8,031tractslargest count of tracts in a tenth of the gradient by ADI national percentile (tracts with tied ranks fall in the same tenth)residents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationnone (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    tenth_min7,613tractssmallest count of tracts in a tenth of the gradient by ADI national percentile (tracts with tied ranks fall in the same tenth)residents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 populationnone (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    tract_se_median1.7years of life expectancymedian over tracts of the standard error of tract life expectancy, each tract counted onceresidents of non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population77,936 tractsnone (each tract counts once)USALEEP life expectancyThe 2020-tract standard errors are mapping grade and understate the error of the area-weighted estimates.
    us_checkup75.6%percent of adultsweighted mean of the tract prevalence over all the tracts of the tenths pooled, bootstrap interval over counties (the draws of the tenths)adults in all tracts with an ADI rank: routine checkup in the past yearBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 202395% CI 75.1% to 76.0%82,781 tractsadult population of the tract (PLACES)CDC PLACES
    us_le78.8years of life expectancy at birthpopulation-weighted mean of tract life expectancy over all the tracts of the tenths pooled, bootstrap interval over counties (the draws of the tenths)residents of all the tracts in the comparison: non-institutional tracts in the 50 states and DC with a life expectancy estimate and an ADI rankdeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); ADI 2023; ACS 2019-2023 population95% CI 78.6 to 79.077,936 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    us_smoking14.5%percent of adultsweighted mean of the tract prevalence over all the tracts of the tenths pooled, bootstrap interval over counties (the draws of the tenths)adults in all tracts with an ADI rank: current cigarette smokingBRFSS 2022 (PLACES 2024 release); ADI 202395% CI 14.2% to 14.8%82,781 tractsadult population of the tract (PLACES)CDC PLACES
    vsplit_county15.9percent of the variance of tract life expectancyshare of the population-weighted variance of tract life expectancy at birth between counties within states (sum-of-squares decomposition)residents of non-institutional tracts with a life expectancy estimate (50 states and DC)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts)78,008 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancyConnecticut's nine planning regions stand in for its counties. The tract estimates are modeled; their mean squared standard error equals 26.7 percent of the total variance and sits inside the within-county share.
    vsplit_n_counties3,112counties and Connecticut planning regionscount of counties with at least one tract in the variance splitresidents of non-institutional tracts with a life expectancy estimate (50 states and DC)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts)none (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    vsplit_n_tracts78,008tractscount of tracts in the variance splitresidents of non-institutional tracts with a life expectancy estimate (50 states and DC)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts)none (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    vsplit_noise26.7percent of the variance of tract life expectancypopulation-weighted mean squared standard error of tract life expectancy as a share of the total varianceresidents of non-institutional tracts with a life expectancy estimate (50 states and DC)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts)78,008 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancyThe 2020-tract standard errors are mapping grade and understate the error.
    vsplit_noise_within38%percent of the within-county variance of tract life expectancymean squared standard error of tract life expectancy over the within-county part of the variance (the canonical noise share over the canonical within-county share), taking the published errors at face valueresidents of non-institutional tracts with a life expectancy estimate (50 states and DC)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts)78,008 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancyThe same denominator as the county shares of estimation error in the county spread figure.
    vsplit_state13.7percent of the variance of tract life expectancyshare of the population-weighted variance of tract life expectancy at birth between states (sum-of-squares decomposition)residents of non-institutional tracts with a life expectancy estimate (50 states and DC)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts)78,008 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancyConnecticut's nine planning regions stand in for its counties. The tract estimates are modeled; their mean squared standard error equals 26.7 percent of the total variance and sits inside the within-county share.
    vsplit_within70.3percent of the variance of tract life expectancyshare of the population-weighted variance of tract life expectancy at birth between tracts within counties (sum-of-squares decomposition)residents of non-institutional tracts with a life expectancy estimate (50 states and DC)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts)78,008 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancyConnecticut's nine planning regions stand in for its counties. The tract estimates are modeled; their mean squared standard error equals 26.7 percent of the total variance and sits inside the within-county share.
    vsplit_within_signal60%percent of the variance net of estimation errorwithin-county share of the variance of tract life expectancy after subtracting the mean squared standard error from the total and from the within-county partresidents of non-institutional tracts with a life expectancy estimate (50 states and DC)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts)78,008 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancyTakes the published standard errors at face value; the 2020-tract errors are mapping grade and understate the noise, so the share of the true differences that lies within counties is lower.

    Definitions

    Census tract
    A small area drawn by the Census Bureau to stand in for a neighborhood. Boundaries are redrawn after each decennial census.
    Area Deprivation Index (ADI)
    A score that ranks neighborhoods by income, education, employment and housing conditions drawn from the American Community Survey. In this book a higher national percentile means a more deprived neighborhood.
    Modeled estimate
    A figure produced by a statistical model instead of a direct count or measurement, usually for small areas where direct data are thin, borrowing strength from surveys, neighboring areas or other data. Neighboring areas can share errors, so single extremes call for caution.
    Fixed effects
    A regression adjustment that gives each group, such as each county, its own baseline. The estimate then rests on differences within groups.
    Ecological inference
    Drawing conclusions about individuals from data about places or groups. A pattern across counties need not hold for the people inside them.

    Methods

    This chapter compares neighborhood estimates of life expectancy with a deprivation index and repeats the comparison at smaller geographic scales. The deaths behind the estimates (2010 to 2015) precede the survey data behind the index (2019 to 2023) by about a decade, the tract estimates are modeled and the displayed intervals do not carry all of their error, and the nearby pairs come from a rule applied to the most populous counties only. No result estimates what moving would do to a person's lifespan; the box on the Moving to Opportunity experiment quotes cited studies.

    Sample and period

    Tract life expectancy at birth is the USALEEP estimate for deaths in 2010 to 2015. The gradient, the metro slopes, the variance split, the county spread and the New York City map use the file on 2020 tracts, with institutional tracts (at least 25 percent of residents in group quarters, or a known case) dropped and an ACS 2019-2023 population above zero, in the 50 states and DC. The gradient covers the 77,936 such tracts that have an estimate and an ADI rank.

    The Area Deprivation Index is the 2023 release of the national percentile (1 least, 100 most deprived), built on the ACS for 2019 to 2023, joined by tract. The deaths therefore precede the ACS data the ADI uses by about a decade.

    The nearby pairs use a separate sample, the native 2010 tracts of the most populous counties whose boundaries did not change (How the neighborhoods were paired, below). Smoking and the checkup are CDC PLACES 2024 estimates, which model survey responses from 2022. The box on the Moving to Opportunity experiment quotes estimates from the cited studies; they are not results of this build and keep the populations, outcomes and periods the studies report.

    The New York City map draws the tracts of the gradient sample that lie in the five counties of New York City (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens and Richmond) on the 2020 tract outlines of the city, and every other tract of the outlines is gray with a reason: no residents in the ACS, no life expectancy estimate, an institutional tract or no ADI rank. No tract is chosen or marked.

    Figures explained here: Figure 1, Figure 2, Figure 6, Figure 4 and Figure 5

    Matching places across years

    USALEEP built its estimates on 2010 tracts. The file on 2020 tracts used for the gradient and the comparisons of scale is area-weighted from the 2010 tracts, and its standard errors are mapping grade, so they understate the uncertainty of an estimate on a 2020 tract.

    A pair uses the native estimate and standard error for the 2010 tract, not the interpolated file, and only for tracts whose boundary did not change. The 2010 and 2020 tracts with one GEOID must share at least 99% of the land area of each (Census 2010-to-2020 relationship file), so the ADI and the ACS population of the 2020 tract describe the same ground.

    Weights and comparisons

    Weights are the ACS 2019-2023 tract population for the means of tenths and percentiles, the metro slopes, the county spread and the borough figures, so those results describe residents, and so are the variance splits of life expectancy and of the ADI. Medians across metros, counties and boroughs count each place once, and each pair counts once in the median gap over pairs.

    Tenths of tracts are rank bins of the ADI with tracts of tied rank in the same tenth, so they hold from 7,613 to 8,031 tracts. The dots in the first tab of the gradient figure are a random sample of 4,000 tracts drawn with a fixed seed; the line, the band and the markers use every tract.

    Smoking and the checkup are the estimates of the chapter on health behaviors and the supply of care, from its function and its tenths of tracts, weighted by adults in each tract, with county-bootstrap intervals. PLACES values are modeled estimates built partly from the ACS, as the ADI is, so part of each gradient is built in.

    Uncertainty

    Each tract estimate has a published standard error, with a median of 1.7 years. The interval of a tract is 1.96 standard errors, and the interval of a gap treats the two errors as independent.

    Intervals for the means of tenths and percentiles come from repeatedly drawing whole counties with replacement and recomputing the mean, a bootstrap over counties; they are percentile intervals from 2,000 draws with seed 12345. The median gap over pairs has a bootstrap interval over pairs, with the same draws and seed. Metro slopes have errors clustered on counties where a metro has at least five and HC3 errors otherwise.

    The band in the gradient figure is the population-weighted interquartile range of tracts at each ADI percentile. It describes the spread of places, includes estimation error and is not an interval for the line.

    The bootstrap resamples counties of published estimates. It does not add the error of the USALEEP model beyond the published standard errors, the error of moving estimates onto 2020 tracts or uncertainty in the ADI.

    Figures explained here: Figure 1 and Figure 3

    How the neighborhoods were paired

    Each of the 20 most populous counties, by ACS population of the tracts in the sample, is searched. A tract enters if its boundary did not change between the 2010 and 2020 censuses (Matching places across years, above), if it is not an institutional tract such as a prison or a dormitory, if it has at least 2,000 residents and if the standard error of its life expectancy is at most 2.0 years. 4,917 of the 13,625 non-institutional tracts of these counties that have a life expectancy estimate qualify.

    Among qualifying tracts whose Census internal points are at most 5 kilometers apart (a straight line, projected to EPSG:5070), the county's pair is the one whose ADI differs most, with ties going to the shorter distance, and it counts if the difference reaches 50 percentile points. No pair reaches that difference in 3 counties, and they are left out. The rule never looks at life expectancy.

    The data hold no transit routes, so the pairs are a short distance apart and not a measured ride. The pairs are the result of a rule applied to large counties and are not a sample of neighborhoods.

    Figure explained here: Figure 3

    How the local slopes and variance split were calculated

    The metro slopes and the fixed-effects ladder are the functions of the chapter on gradients, slopes and variance. A core-based statistical area is coded by the Census county file, a metro needs at least 40 tracts, and each slope is a population-weighted least-squares fit. The within-county slope adds a separate baseline for each county.

    The variance split is b2.canon.variance_split(), the function the chapter on gradients, slopes and variance calls, and the split of the ADI is the one in the chapter on gradients, slopes and variance. Estimation error is the population-weighted mean squared standard error of the tract estimates as a share of the total variance; the 2020-tract standard errors are mapping grade and understate it.

    The county spread gives, for the 30 most populous counties, the population-weighted 5th and 95th percentiles of tract life expectancy and the population-weighted mean. The view net of estimation error shrinks each tract estimate toward the county mean by the square root of one minus the county's share of variance that is estimation error. The shrinkage is an approximation that takes the published errors at face value; it does not recover the true differences between tracts.

    For the New York City map, the 5th to 95th percentile of tract life expectancy in a borough and the mean of a borough are population-weighted, and the shrinkage toward the borough mean and the share of the variance that is estimation error are the rules of the county spread, applied to the five boroughs and taking the published standard errors at face value.

    Figures explained here: Figure 6, Figure 4, Figure 5 and Figure 2

    How the results change under alternative choices

    The median gap over pairs depends on the settings of the rule, above all the radius. Pairs chosen within 3 kilometers have a median gap of 2.7 years, and within 8 kilometers it is 5.1, against 5.4 within 5 kilometers. Raising the population floor to 4,000 residents gives 5.5.

    A cap of 1.5 years on the standard error gives a median of 4.3 over 15 pairs, a cap of 3.0 years gives 6.2, and no cap gives 4.6 over 18 pairs.

    The number of counties in the county spread matters little. The median range is 10.5 years among the 15 most populous counties and 10.5 among the 60 most populous, against 10.5 among 30.

    Figures explained here: Figure 3 and Figure 5

    Four rankings of the same places

    The comparison follows the book's ranking switch rule, fixed on October 28, 2026 before any of these gradients was computed. The main gradient of the chapter is recomputed under four rankings of the same places, with the outcome, period, weights, bins and intervals unchanged: the published ADI; a standardized index that applies the ADI's coefficients to its measures after standardizing each one across tracts; median household income; and the share of adults 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more. The three alternatives come from ACS tract estimates for 2019 to 2023, the period of the ADI.

    All four rankings use the same places, the 71,771 tracts that have the outcome and all four rankings, so the ADI panel can differ slightly from the chapter's main figure. Tracts enter only if they have every input of the standardized index, which leaves out tracts without a median rent, home value or mortgage cost.

    A pattern counts as changed when the worse end switches sides, when the two ends differ under one ranking and not the other, or when the rank correlation of bin order and bin mean falls on the other side of 0.9 and moves by at least 0.1.

    Figure explained here: Figure 7

    Rankings and subsets of places

    The file splits.json in this chapter's data folder repeats the tenths of tracts under five rankings (the ADI, the standardized index, median household income, the bachelor's degree share and the median home value) and within subsets of places: the four Census regions, counties where at least 25% of residents are Black alone and the other counties (ACS 2019-2023), and metro and nonmetro counties (Rural-Urban Continuum Codes 2023). Each place keeps its national tenth, so an end bin means the same level of deprivation in every subset. The outcome, weights and bootstrap are those of the chapter's gradient, over the places with all five rankings. A tenth with fewer than 20 tracts or 5 counties is left empty.

    What these data cannot show

    Outside the box, every number here describes places. A tract with a lower life expectancy and a higher ADI is a tract whose residents, taken together, died younger in 2010 to 2015, and the data do not say which of them did, or whether a person who moved would have died later (ecological inference). The pairs show that nearby tracts differ, and the data cannot separate what the places do from who lives in them. The experiment in the box covers women and children who enrolled in one program, and it does not say how much of the gradient in the figures would change if a place changed.

    The periods differ. The life expectancy estimates are modeled for deaths in 2010 to 2015 and were never updated. The ADI is a national percentile built on survey data for 2019 to 2023, and it may rank a tract differently from the way the same tract looked in 2010.

    The geography is matched imperfectly. The 2020-tract file used for the gradient is area-weighted from 2010 tracts, and its errors are mapping grade, approximations that understate the uncertainty. Because the pairs are chosen on the ADI among large counties, their median describes that rule, as the sensitivity to the radius shows, and says nothing about counties that are small or rural. The counties left out are Los Angeles, Santa Clara and Alameda, all in California, and the ADI understates deprivation in high-cost cities, so a qualifying pair there may exist and not be found. The distances are straight lines and not rides. Puerto Rico has no life expectancy estimates and is not included, and Connecticut's planning regions stand in for its counties. Institutional tracts are dropped, and a tract without an estimate is absent and not zero.

    The estimates are modeled. A tract's life expectancy has a median standard error of 1.7 years, which the intervals in Table 3 show. The intervals in the figures come from resampling counties of published estimates, and they leave out error in the life expectancy model beyond its standard errors, error from moving estimates onto 2020 tracts and uncertainty in the ADI. The PLACES measures are modeled estimates built partly from the same census and survey inputs as the ADI, so the lines for smoking and the checkup show how the model maps those inputs into prevalence as well as how adults differ.

    References

    1. Arias, Elizabeth; Escobedo, Luis A.; Kennedy, Jiaquan; Fu, Chenxi; Cisewski, Jodi (2018). U.S. Small-area Life Expectancy Estimates Project: Methodology and Results Summary. Vital and Health Statistics, Series 2, Number 181, National Center for Health Statistics. www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/series/sr_02/sr02_181.pdf
    2. Kind, Amy J. H.; Buckingham, William R. (2018). Making Neighborhood-Disadvantage Metrics Accessible: The Neighborhood Atlas. New England Journal of Medicine 378(26): 2456-2458. doi:10.1056/NEJMp1802313
    3. Greenlund, Kurt J.; Lu, Hua; Wang, Yan; Matthews, Kevin A.; LeClercq, Jennifer M.; Lee, Benjamin; Carlson, Susan A. (2022). PLACES: Local Data for Better Health. Preventing Chronic Disease 19: 210459. doi:10.5888/pcd19.210459
    4. Ludwig, Jens; Sanbonmatsu, Lisa; Gennetian, Lisa; Adam, Emma; Duncan, Greg J.; Katz, Lawrence F.; Kessler, Ronald C.; Kling, Jeffrey R.; Lindau, Stacy Tessler; Whitaker, Robert C.; McDade, Thomas W. (2011). Neighborhoods, Obesity, and Diabetes: A Randomized Social Experiment. New England Journal of Medicine 365(16): 1509-1519. doi:10.1056/NEJMsa1103216
    5. Chetty, Raj; Hendren, Nathaniel; Katz, Lawrence F. (2016). The Effects of Exposure to Better Neighborhoods on Children: New Evidence from the Moving to Opportunity Experiment. American Economic Review 106(4): 855-902. doi:10.1257/aer.20150572

    Provenance

    Pipeline version
    0.1.0
    Build script
    book2/chapters/place-and-the-length-of-a-life/build.py (sha256 42fcdf636a9813540d6eaae0848093bac35cb3a434f0fded640ca760a3a405e9)
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    Machine formats