{
  "alt": "Dot plot of the most populous counties, each with a dot for its mean life expectancy and a horizontal whisker for the range of its tracts. Counties are sorted from the widest whisker at the top to the narrowest at the bottom. All whiskers span several years, and in the second view they are shorter.",
  "caption": "Every whisker spans several years, in counties with high means and low means alike. The dot is the county mean and the whisker is the spread of its tracts, which describes the tracts and is not an interval for the mean. The second view shrinks the tract estimates toward the county mean by the share of their variance that is estimation error.",
  "data": [
    {
      "county": "Cook County, IL",
      "mean": 78.5,
      "net_hi": 83.8,
      "net_lo": 71.7,
      "net_spread": 12.1,
      "noise": 24,
      "p5": 70.7,
      "p95": 84.6,
      "residents": 4864100,
      "spread": 13.9,
      "tracts": 1221
    },
    {
      "county": "Wayne County, MI",
      "mean": 75.4,
      "net_hi": 81.4,
      "net_lo": 69.7,
      "net_spread": 11.7,
      "noise": 23,
      "p5": 68.9,
      "p95": 82.2,
      "residents": 1707514,
      "spread": 13.3,
      "tracts": 555
    },
    {
      "county": "New York County, NY",
      "mean": 82.4,
      "net_hi": 87.6,
      "net_lo": 76.8,
      "net_spread": 10.8,
      "noise": 31,
      "p5": 75.6,
      "p95": 88.6,
      "residents": 1405675,
      "spread": 13,
      "tracts": 250
    },
    {
      "county": "Palm Beach County, FL",
      "mean": 80.6,
      "net_hi": 85.9,
      "net_lo": 75.1,
      "net_spread": 10.8,
      "noise": 30,
      "p5": 74,
      "p95": 86.9,
      "residents": 1399959,
      "spread": 12.9,
      "tracts": 330
    },
    {
      "county": "Philadelphia County, PA",
      "mean": 75.4,
      "net_hi": 80.7,
      "net_lo": 69.8,
      "net_spread": 10.9,
      "noise": 25,
      "p5": 69,
      "p95": 81.5,
      "residents": 1502783,
      "spread": 12.5,
      "tracts": 364
    },
    {
      "county": "Hillsborough County, FL",
      "mean": 78.2,
      "net_hi": 82.4,
      "net_lo": 72.7,
      "net_spread": 9.7,
      "noise": 35,
      "p5": 71.4,
      "p95": 83.4,
      "residents": 1317655,
      "spread": 12,
      "tracts": 287
    },
    {
      "county": "Miami-Dade County, FL",
      "mean": 80.5,
      "net_hi": 85.2,
      "net_lo": 75.3,
      "net_spread": 9.9,
      "noise": 30,
      "p5": 74.3,
      "p95": 86.1,
      "residents": 2544531,
      "spread": 11.8,
      "tracts": 655
    },
    {
      "county": "Kings County, NY",
      "mean": 79.9,
      "net_hi": 84,
      "net_lo": 75.3,
      "net_spread": 8.8,
      "noise": 42,
      "p5": 73.8,
      "p95": 85.3,
      "residents": 2521198,
      "spread": 11.6,
      "tracts": 734
    },
    {
      "county": "Alameda County, CA",
      "mean": 81,
      "net_hi": 85.2,
      "net_lo": 76.6,
      "net_spread": 8.6,
      "noise": 41,
      "p5": 75.3,
      "p95": 86.5,
      "residents": 1598446,
      "spread": 11.2,
      "tracts": 362
    },
    {
      "county": "Broward County, FL",
      "mean": 79.5,
      "net_hi": 83.6,
      "net_lo": 74.9,
      "net_spread": 8.7,
      "noise": 39,
      "p5": 73.6,
      "p95": 84.7,
      "residents": 1847256,
      "spread": 11.1,
      "tracts": 392
    },
    {
      "county": "Dallas County, TX",
      "mean": 77.8,
      "net_hi": 81.7,
      "net_lo": 73.3,
      "net_spread": 8.4,
      "noise": 40,
      "p5": 72,
      "p95": 82.8,
      "residents": 2324374,
      "spread": 10.9,
      "tracts": 561
    },
    {
      "county": "King County, WA",
      "mean": 81.3,
      "net_hi": 85.5,
      "net_lo": 77.4,
      "net_spread": 8.1,
      "noise": 44,
      "p5": 76.1,
      "p95": 86.9,
      "residents": 2184985,
      "spread": 10.8,
      "tracts": 475
    },
    {
      "county": "Harris County, TX",
      "mean": 78.3,
      "net_hi": 82.2,
      "net_lo": 74.1,
      "net_spread": 8.1,
      "noise": 44,
      "p5": 72.7,
      "p95": 83.5,
      "residents": 4292763,
      "spread": 10.8,
      "tracts": 1000
    },
    {
      "county": "Queens County, NY",
      "mean": 81.7,
      "net_hi": 85.5,
      "net_lo": 78.1,
      "net_spread": 7.3,
      "noise": 52,
      "p5": 76.6,
      "p95": 87.1,
      "residents": 2250510,
      "spread": 10.5,
      "tracts": 656
    },
    {
      "county": "Orange County, FL",
      "mean": 79.3,
      "net_hi": 82.9,
      "net_lo": 75,
      "net_spread": 8,
      "noise": 42,
      "p5": 73.6,
      "p95": 84.1,
      "residents": 1339363,
      "spread": 10.5,
      "tracts": 248
    },
    {
      "county": "Los Angeles County, CA",
      "mean": 80.6,
      "net_hi": 84.5,
      "net_lo": 76.7,
      "net_spread": 7.8,
      "noise": 45,
      "p5": 75.4,
      "p95": 85.9,
      "residents": 9461723,
      "spread": 10.5,
      "tracts": 2350
    },
    {
      "county": "Clark County, NV",
      "mean": 77.7,
      "net_hi": 81,
      "net_lo": 73.9,
      "net_spread": 7.2,
      "noise": 52,
      "p5": 72.2,
      "p95": 82.5,
      "residents": 2040360,
      "spread": 10.3,
      "tracts": 475
    },
    {
      "county": "Bronx County, NY",
      "mean": 78.3,
      "net_hi": 82.3,
      "net_lo": 74.9,
      "net_spread": 7.4,
      "noise": 49,
      "p5": 73.5,
      "p95": 83.9,
      "residents": 1369766,
      "spread": 10.3,
      "tracts": 326
    },
    {
      "county": "Riverside County, CA",
      "mean": 79.4,
      "net_hi": 83,
      "net_lo": 75.5,
      "net_spread": 7.6,
      "noise": 45,
      "p5": 74.1,
      "p95": 84.3,
      "residents": 2352240,
      "spread": 10.2,
      "tracts": 492
    },
    {
      "county": "San Diego County, CA",
      "mean": 80.9,
      "net_hi": 84.5,
      "net_lo": 77.3,
      "net_spread": 7.2,
      "noise": 47,
      "p5": 75.9,
      "p95": 85.8,
      "residents": 3038849,
      "spread": 9.9,
      "tracts": 681
    },
    {
      "county": "Middlesex County, MA",
      "mean": 81.8,
      "net_hi": 85.9,
      "net_lo": 78.4,
      "net_spread": 7.6,
      "noise": 40,
      "p5": 77.4,
      "p95": 87.1,
      "residents": 1544211,
      "spread": 9.7,
      "tracts": 338
    },
    {
      "county": "San Bernardino County, CA",
      "mean": 78.4,
      "net_hi": 81.9,
      "net_lo": 74.8,
      "net_spread": 7.1,
      "noise": 47,
      "p5": 73.5,
      "p95": 83.2,
      "residents": 2093159,
      "spread": 9.7,
      "tracts": 447
    },
    {
      "county": "Sacramento County, CA",
      "mean": 78.8,
      "net_hi": 82.8,
      "net_lo": 75.2,
      "net_spread": 7.6,
      "noise": 39,
      "p5": 74.2,
      "p95": 83.9,
      "residents": 1515289,
      "spread": 9.7,
      "tracts": 343
    },
    {
      "county": "Bexar County, TX",
      "mean": 78.2,
      "net_hi": 81.6,
      "net_lo": 74.4,
      "net_spread": 7.3,
      "noise": 43,
      "p5": 73.1,
      "p95": 82.8,
      "residents": 1812879,
      "spread": 9.7,
      "tracts": 334
    },
    {
      "county": "Maricopa County, AZ",
      "mean": 78.8,
      "net_hi": 82.1,
      "net_lo": 75.4,
      "net_spread": 6.8,
      "noise": 50,
      "p5": 73.9,
      "p95": 83.5,
      "residents": 3980946,
      "spread": 9.6,
      "tracts": 865
    },
    {
      "county": "Tarrant County, TX",
      "mean": 78,
      "net_hi": 81.1,
      "net_lo": 74.5,
      "net_spread": 6.5,
      "noise": 52,
      "p5": 73,
      "p95": 82.4,
      "residents": 1931602,
      "spread": 9.4,
      "tracts": 402
    },
    {
      "county": "Orange County, CA",
      "mean": 81.7,
      "net_hi": 84.2,
      "net_lo": 79.3,
      "net_spread": 4.9,
      "noise": 67,
      "p5": 77.6,
      "p95": 86.1,
      "residents": 2964928,
      "spread": 8.5,
      "tracts": 575
    },
    {
      "county": "Nassau County, NY",
      "mean": 82.4,
      "net_hi": 85.9,
      "net_lo": 79.5,
      "net_spread": 6.3,
      "noise": 43,
      "p5": 78.6,
      "p95": 87,
      "residents": 1358476,
      "spread": 8.4,
      "tracts": 272
    },
    {
      "county": "Santa Clara County, CA",
      "mean": 82.8,
      "net_hi": 84.9,
      "net_lo": 80.8,
      "net_spread": 4.2,
      "noise": 75,
      "p5": 78.8,
      "p95": 87.1,
      "residents": 1835064,
      "spread": 8.3,
      "tracts": 393
    },
    {
      "county": "Suffolk County, NY",
      "mean": 80.7,
      "net_hi": 83.2,
      "net_lo": 78.2,
      "net_spread": 5,
      "noise": 55,
      "p5": 77,
      "p95": 84.5,
      "residents": 1400449,
      "spread": 7.5,
      "tracts": 359
    }
  ],
  "id": "county_spread",
  "notes": [
    "Tract estimates are modeled, so the range of the estimates is wider than the range of the true values. The second view takes the published standard errors at face value: the median share of the variance within a county that is estimation error is {fact:spread_noise_median}, against {fact:vsplit_noise_within} for all counties together. The shrinkage multiplies the distance of the 5th and 95th percentiles from the county mean by the square root of one minus that share. The 2020-tract errors are mapping grade, so the range net of error is an upper bound. The range of tract estimates is not like-for-like with a difference between means of tenths.",
    "Counties are chosen by population and not by range. With {fact:spread_n_15} counties the median range is {fact:spread_median_15} years and with {fact:spread_n_60} it is {fact:spread_median_60}. Institutional tracts are dropped. Connecticut's planning regions stand in for its counties."
  ],
  "source": "USALEEP life expectancy, 2010-2015; ACS 2019-2023 population; population-weighted percentiles of tract values, modeled estimates",
  "spec": {
    "hi": "p95",
    "lo": "p5",
    "n": "tracts",
    "sort": "data",
    "x": "mean",
    "xDomain": [
      60,
      95
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "xLabel": "Life expectancy at birth (years; dot: county mean; whisker: 5th to 95th percentile of tracts)",
    "y": "county"
  },
  "subtitle": "Population-weighted mean life expectancy at birth of each county (dot) and the 5th to 95th percentile of its tracts (whisker), sorted by the width of the range, deaths in 2010 to 2015",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "county",
        "label": "County"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "mean",
        "label": "Mean life expectancy (years)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "p5",
        "label": "5th percentile of tracts"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "p95",
        "label": "95th percentile of tracts"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "spread",
        "label": "Range (years)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "net_spread",
        "label": "Range net of estimation error (years)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0
        },
        "key": "noise",
        "label": "Estimation error, share of variance (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "tracts",
        "label": "Tracts"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "residents",
        "label": "Residents"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "In the {fact:n_spread_counties} most populous counties, tract life expectancy spans a median of {fact:spread_median} years between the 5th and 95th percentile, {fact:spread_median_net} net of estimation error",
  "type": "dot",
  "views": [
    {
      "id": "estimates",
      "label": "Tract estimates"
    },
    {
      "id": "net",
      "label": "Net of estimation error",
      "spec": {
        "hi": "net_hi",
        "lo": "net_lo"
      }
    }
  ],
  "width": "body"
}