{
  "alt": "Dumbbell chart with one row for each tenth of tracts by deprivation, joining the predicted teen birth share of white women to that of Black women raised in the same tracts. In every row the Black dot is to the right of the white dot, and both dots move right from the least to the most deprived tenth.",
  "caption": "Every Black dot lies to the right of the white dot in its row, and the distance between them shows no detectable change from the least to the most deprived tenth. The Black dot in the least deprived tenth sits slightly left of the white dot in the most deprived tenth, in a different set of tracts. Each dot is a population-weighted mean over the tracts in the tenth where both groups are estimated, with 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties.",
  "data": [
    {
      "black": 29.75,
      "black_high": 31.11,
      "black_low": 27.97,
      "gap": 18.07,
      "gap_high": 19.57,
      "gap_low": 16.23,
      "n": 696,
      "tenth": "Tenth 1 (least deprived)",
      "white": 11.68,
      "white_high": 13.25,
      "white_low": 9.98
    },
    {
      "black": 32.58,
      "black_high": 34.51,
      "black_low": 30.38,
      "gap": 17.69,
      "gap_high": 19.16,
      "gap_low": 16.12,
      "n": 1372,
      "tenth": "Tenth 2",
      "white": 14.9,
      "white_high": 15.98,
      "white_low": 13.62
    },
    {
      "black": 34.21,
      "black_high": 35.5,
      "black_low": 32.8,
      "gap": 17.48,
      "gap_high": 18.66,
      "gap_low": 16.27,
      "n": 1634,
      "tenth": "Tenth 3",
      "white": 16.73,
      "white_high": 17.76,
      "white_low": 15.64
    },
    {
      "black": 36.87,
      "black_high": 38.13,
      "black_low": 35.66,
      "gap": 17.46,
      "gap_high": 18.63,
      "gap_low": 16.31,
      "n": 1953,
      "tenth": "Tenth 4",
      "white": 19.41,
      "white_high": 20.36,
      "white_low": 18.43
    },
    {
      "black": 39.48,
      "black_high": 40.4,
      "black_low": 38.58,
      "gap": 18.33,
      "gap_high": 19.3,
      "gap_low": 17.41,
      "n": 2288,
      "tenth": "Tenth 5",
      "white": 21.15,
      "white_high": 21.94,
      "white_low": 20.33
    },
    {
      "black": 41.03,
      "black_high": 42.03,
      "black_low": 40,
      "gap": 18,
      "gap_high": 19.28,
      "gap_low": 16.95,
      "n": 2366,
      "tenth": "Tenth 6",
      "white": 23.03,
      "white_high": 23.95,
      "white_low": 22.04
    },
    {
      "black": 43,
      "black_high": 43.89,
      "black_low": 42.07,
      "gap": 17.51,
      "gap_high": 18.36,
      "gap_low": 16.67,
      "n": 2443,
      "tenth": "Tenth 7",
      "white": 25.49,
      "white_high": 26.13,
      "white_low": 24.86
    },
    {
      "black": 44.44,
      "black_high": 45.08,
      "black_low": 43.78,
      "gap": 17.21,
      "gap_high": 17.94,
      "gap_low": 16.47,
      "n": 2410,
      "tenth": "Tenth 8",
      "white": 27.23,
      "white_high": 27.92,
      "white_low": 26.53
    },
    {
      "black": 46.46,
      "black_high": 47,
      "black_low": 45.89,
      "gap": 17.04,
      "gap_high": 17.71,
      "gap_low": 16.38,
      "n": 2570,
      "tenth": "Tenth 9",
      "white": 29.42,
      "white_high": 30,
      "white_low": 28.82
    },
    {
      "black": 49.41,
      "black_high": 49.97,
      "black_low": 48.86,
      "gap": 17.37,
      "gap_high": 18.1,
      "gap_low": 16.63,
      "n": 3152,
      "tenth": "Tenth 10 (most deprived)",
      "white": 32.04,
      "white_high": 32.66,
      "white_low": 31.39
    }
  ],
  "id": "teen_birth_black_white_by_deprivation",
  "notes": [
    "The tracts are those where the Atlas estimates both groups, and tenths are formed on the ADI, a measure that neither estimate contributes to, so the grouping does not sort on either noisy estimate. Few tracts in the least deprived tenths have a Black estimate. The Area Deprivation Index is built for census block groups from American Community Survey measures for 2019 to 2023, and a 2020 tract's value is the unweighted mean of its block groups' ranks. Each 2010 tract takes the land-area-weighted mean of the values of the 2020 tracts that overlap it, when those with a rank cover at least {fact:adi_cover} of its land area. Tenths hold near-equal numbers of tracts, with tied ranks kept together.",
    "Shares are the Atlas's predicted share of women with a teen birth, a child born when the mother was between the ages of {fact:age_low} and {fact:age_high} whom she claimed as a dependent, for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile. White, Black and Asian women are non-Hispanic and Hispanic women may be of any race. The Atlas adds noise to its estimates to protect privacy and the staged values are never clipped, so a few fall below 0 or above 100."
  ],
  "source": "Opportunity Atlas tract outcomes, 2010 tracts, 1978-1983 birth cohorts, and Area Deprivation Index, 2023 release (ACS 2019-2023); population-weighted (2010 tract population), modeled estimates",
  "spec": {
    "deltaLabel": "Gap, Black minus white (points)",
    "hi1": "white_high",
    "hi2": "black_high",
    "label1": "Non-Hispanic white women",
    "label2": "Non-Hispanic Black women",
    "lo1": "white_low",
    "lo2": "black_low",
    "sort": "data",
    "x1": "white",
    "x2": "black",
    "xDomain": [
      0,
      60
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "xLabel": "Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent)",
    "y": "tenth"
  },
  "subtitle": "Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) for white and Black women raised in the same tracts, by tenth of the Area Deprivation Index, women born 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile (teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s, not a current rate)",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "tenth",
        "label": "Tenth of tracts by ADI"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "white",
        "label": "White women (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "black",
        "label": "Black women (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "gap",
        "label": "Gap (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "gap_low",
        "label": "Lower limit of the 95% interval for the gap"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "gap_high",
        "label": "Upper limit of the 95% interval for the gap"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Tracts"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "The Black-white gap in predicted teen birth shares shows no detectable change from the least to the most deprived tenth of tracts, {fact:gap_bw_change} points with an interval that includes zero",
  "type": "dumbbell",
  "width": "wide"
}