# Teen births: report

Chapter 4.2 of ZIP Code Destiny, by Vishal Singh (NYU Stern). Generated from the chapter's data files; the reading version is at https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/teen-births. Table n of this report is figure n of the chapter.

## Identification

- Title: Teen births
- Label: A generation back
- Chapter: 4.2 (Part IV, Becoming an adult; An American life)
- Question: How do teen birth rates change with neighborhood deprivation, and how large is the gap between groups raised in the same tract?
- Dek: The Opportunity Atlas predicts a teen birth for 38.5% of women born in 1978 to 1983 to parents at the 25th income percentile and raised in tracts now in the most deprived tenth, against 12.9% in the least deprived.
- Grain: neighborhoods
- Status: published
- Published: 2026-10-09
- Updated: not revised
- Data sources:
  - Opportunity Atlas. Predicted share of women with a teen birth (parents at the 25th income percentile) by tract and race and by county, children born 1978 to 1983, native 2010 tracts; women's adult household income rank; 1990 tract poverty rate from the tract covariates file; years: 1978-1983 birth cohorts (2018 release); weights: 2010 census tract population for tract comparisons; 2010 census county population for county summaries
  - Area Deprivation Index. Neighborhood Atlas Area Deprivation Index, 2023 release, national rank, 2020 tracts averaged onto 2010 tracts by land area; years: 2023 release (version 4.0.1; built on ACS 2019-2023); weights: 2010 census tract population
  - USDA Food Access Research Atlas. 2010 census population of each 2010 tract, from the Food Access Research Atlas file; the food-access flags are not used; years: 2019 release (population from the 2010 census); weights: none (census counts); used as the weight for tract and county comparisons
  - CDC WONDER natality. Named only, to say how this chapter's measure differs from CDC WONDER counts of births to teenage mothers in the chapter on recent births; years: 2018-2024; weights: none (not used in this chapter's estimates)
  - Published estimates from cited studies. The estimate of the Colorado Family Planning Initiative reported by Lindo and Packham (2017); years: as reported in each study; weights: none (reported estimate)
- Canonical URL: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/teen-births
- Report: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/teen-births/report
- Markdown: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/teen-births/report.md
- BibTeX key: singh2026teenbirths

```bibtex
@misc{singh2026teenbirths,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Teen births},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/teen-births},
  note = {In ZIP Code Destiny. Published 9 October 2026.}
}
```

## Principal estimates

The facts the dek and the opening prose cite, in order of appearance.

| Estimand | Population | Period | Value | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Fact id |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval; tenths hold near-equal numbers of tracts | all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the most deprived tenth of tracts by ADI rank | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 38.5% | 95% CI 37.8% to 39.3% | 7,226 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas | d10_pooled |
| predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval; tenths hold near-equal numbers of tracts | all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the least deprived tenth of tracts by ADI rank | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 12.9% | 95% CI 11.9% to 14.0% | 7,103 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas | d1_pooled |
| lower age limit in the Atlas definition of a teen birth (the mother's age at the child's birth) | women in the Opportunity Atlas teen birth measure | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s | 13 |   |   | none (definition) | Opportunity Atlas | age_low |
| upper age limit in the Atlas definition of a teen birth (the mother's age at the child's birth) | women in the Opportunity Atlas teen birth measure | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s | 19 |   |   | none (definition) | Opportunity Atlas | age_high |
| mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 17.6 | 95% CI 17.0 to 18.2 | 20,884 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas | gap_bw |
| mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | Hispanic women of any race and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 10.9 | 95% CI 10.3 to 11.5 | 22,695 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas | gap_hw |
| mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Asian women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 7.1 | 95% CI 6.3 to 8.0 | 7,064 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas | gap_wa |

## Findings

Among women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, the Opportunity Atlas predicts that 38.5% (95% CI 37.8% to 39.3%) of those who grew up in the most deprived tenth of census tracts had a teen birth, against 12.9% (95% CI 11.9% to 14.0%) in the least deprived tenth.[1] Tracts are ranked by their deprivation in 2019 to 2023, a generation after the births. The women were born in 1978 to 1983, so their births fell in the 1990s and early 2000s. Every predicted share in this chapter is the Atlas's model prediction for that cohort, now in middle age, and not a current teen birth rate. A teen birth here means that a woman claimed, as a dependent, a child born when she was between the ages of 13 and 19.

Inside the same tract, the prediction differs by race. Where the Atlas estimates both groups, Black women's predicted share exceeds white women's by 17.6 (95% CI 17.0 to 18.2) points and Hispanic women's exceeds it by 10.9 (95% CI 10.3 to 11.5) points, while Asian women's falls below it by 7.1 (95% CI 6.3 to 8.0) points. The Black-white gap shows no detectable change from the least to the most deprived tenth of tracts, so in these data the gradient by deprivation and the gap by race run in parallel.

### How the Atlas measures a teen birth

The Opportunity Atlas links tax and census records to follow children born in 1978 to 1983 from the census tract where they grew up into adulthood.[1] Its teen birth measure is the fraction of women who grew up in a tract and ever claimed, as a dependent, a child born when they were between the ages of 13 and 19. The Atlas reports it as a predicted value for women whose parents were at a given percentile of the national income distribution, here the 25th, so it describes women from low-income families and not every woman in the tract. A birth counts only when the mother claimed the child, so births to teenage mothers whose children someone else claimed are missed.

The Atlas adds noise to each estimate to protect privacy, and its documentation puts the noise at typically less than 10% of an estimate's standard error. Tract estimates still rest on modest numbers of women, and the staged file carries no standard errors, so a single tract is a modeled estimate with an unknown error. Nothing is clipped, so 451 of the 71,646 tracts with an estimate for all women have a negative value.

Tract comparisons weight each tract by its 2010 census population, the nearest available stand-in for the number of women, because the staged file has no counts of women. That weight counts adults and children alike. Intervals come from a bootstrap that resamples whole counties, or whole states where a quantity is built from county or regional means. Of the 73,278 tracts in the file, 71,303 have an estimate for all women, a deprivation rank (described below) and a recorded 2010 population, and they hold 99.0% of the 2010 U.S. population. The Atlas defines its race groups as Hispanic women of any race and non-Hispanic white, Black and Asian women, and the chapter uses those groups.[2]

The chapter on recent births, Chapter 2.4, Where births are falling (https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/where-births-are-falling), counts births to mothers aged 15 to 19 in each county for 2018 to 2024 and reports no rates, because the staged files hold no counts of women by age. The measure here differs in its population (women raised in a tract, not mothers living in a county), its period (births in the 1990s and early 2000s), its age band (from age 13) and its form (a predicted share of women, not a count of births). The two should not be read as one series.

### Predicted shares are higher in the South than in any other region

Across the 3,125 counties of the states and the District of Columbia that have an Atlas estimate, the population-weighted mean predicted share is 28.5% (95% CI 26.4% to 30.8%). County values run from 16.0% at the population-weighted 5th percentile to 41.4% at the 95th (Table 1).

Pooled over its counties, the South's share is 33.5% (95% CI 31.4% to 35.6%), against 29.5% (95% CI 26.3% to 31.5%) in the Midwest, 25.0% (95% CI 23.5% to 29.2%) in the West and 21.7% (95% CI 19.7% to 23.0%) in the Northeast.

The South is higher than the Midwest by 4.0 (95% CI 1.2 to 7.6) points, than the West by 8.5 (95% CI 4.1 to 11.1) and than the Northeast by 11.8 (95% CI 9.3 to 14.6). Of the counties in the highest tenth of county values, 93% are in the South, which holds 45% of all counties.

The key of the map ends at about the 5th and 95th percentiles of the county values, so 523 of the 3,126 drawn counties lie outside it and take the color of its nearest end.

The Atlas's county mean is 3.6 (95% CI 3.2 to 3.9) points above the mean of the tract estimates in the same counties, which is 25.0% (95% CI 24.3% to 25.6%) for all women when each tract is weighted by its 2010 population. One likely source is the tract weights, since total population counts adults and children alike and the Atlas's own estimates count the cohort's children. The levels from tract estimates in this chapter, including the shares in the most and least deprived tenths, may therefore be low. Differences between groups are less sensitive to the weights. Counting each tract once, which changes them most, gives a Black-white gap of 17.9 (95% CI 17.4 to 18.5) points against 17.6 with population weights. A county average also mixes neighborhoods that differ widely, so the rest of the chapter works with tracts and, at the end, with county averages of tracts.

Table 1. Predicted teen birth shares are higher in the South than in any other region, 33.5% against 21.7% in the Northeast

### The share rises with neighborhood deprivation in every tenth of tracts

Deprivation here is the Area Deprivation Index (ADI), a national rank built for census block groups from American Community Survey measures.[3] A 2020 tract's value is the unweighted mean of its block groups' ranks and describes neighborhoods in 2019 to 2023, while the Atlas follows women from 2010 tracts whose teen births took place a generation earlier. Each 2010 tract therefore takes the land-area-weighted mean of the values of the 2020 tracts that overlap it, when those with a rank cover at least 50% of its land area. That rule leaves 343 tracts with an estimate but no rank or no recorded 2010 population. Of the tracts that remain, 56.4% overlap exactly one 2020 tract, where the crosswalk adds no further averaging.

The time gap changes what the gradient means. It compares the tract a woman grew up in with that tract's conditions now, and it matches the childhood tract only to the extent that neighborhoods keep their standing. The predicted share and the ADI rank have a correlation of +0.58 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.60) across the 71,303 tracts, and the share rises by 2.5 (95% CI 2.4 to 2.7) points for each ten-rank step in the ADI.

In tenths of tracts, the mean rises at every step, from 12.9% (95% CI 11.9% to 14.0%) in the least deprived tenth to 38.5% (95% CI 37.8% to 39.3%) in the most deprived, a rise of 25.6 (95% CI 24.3 to 26.9) points (Table 2). The mean over all tracts is 25.0% (95% CI 24.3% to 25.6%), and counting each tract once gives 25.5% (95% CI 24.7% to 26.2%).

Table 2. Predicted teen birth shares rise from 12.9% in the least deprived tenth of tracts to 38.5% in the most deprived

Three checks bear on the time gap. First, the correlation with the ADI is +0.56 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.59) among tracts that overlap one 2020 tract and +0.60 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.62) among tracts that overlap several, so the averaging in the crosswalk does not produce it. Second, the predicted share also has a correlation of −0.72 (95% CI −0.74 to −0.71) with women's mean adult household income rank in the same tracts, which the Atlas measures for the same cohort and which Chapter 4.3, Race, income and mobility (https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/race-income-and-mobility) takes up. That relation is larger in size than the one with the ADI, so teen births and the later outcomes of the same women move together more closely than teen births and present-day deprivation do. Both are patterns across places, and neither says that a teen birth lowered any woman's income.

Third, a deprivation measure from the childhood years allows a direct check. The Atlas's own tract covariates include the poverty rate from the 1990 census, when the women were in middle childhood. In the 71,295 tracts that have it, tenths of the 1990 poverty rate give a rise in the predicted share of 24.1 (95% CI 22.7 to 25.5) points from the least to the most deprived tenth. Tenths of the ADI on the same tracts give 25.6 (95% CI 24.3 to 26.9), a difference of −1.5 (95% CI −2.8 to −0.2) points.

The correlation with the poverty rate is +0.53 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.55), against +0.58 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.60) with the ADI. A measure taken when the women were children gives a gradient of nearly the same size, a little smaller than the ADI's, so the gradient does not depend on the ADI being measured later.

### The share rises across the deprivation scale for every group

The pooled estimate mixes groups, and Table 3 separates them. Each group is drawn in the tracts where the Atlas has enough women of that group to estimate. The mean predicted share over those tracts is 41.3% (95% CI 40.4% to 42.1%) for Black women, 31.0% (95% CI 29.8% to 32.3%) for Hispanic women, 20.0% (95% CI 19.3% to 20.7%) for white women and 7.4% (95% CI 6.5% to 8.7%) for Asian women.

Every group's share is higher in the most deprived tenth of tracts than in the least deprived. The rise is 21.7 (95% CI 20.7 to 22.8) points for white women, 18.1 (95% CI 16.9 to 19.9) for Black women, 20.3 (95% CI 18.1 to 22.2) for Hispanic women and 15.8 (95% CI 11.3 to 20.1) for Asian women, whose interval is wide because few tracts with an Asian estimate lie in the most deprived tenths. Black women's line is above the others at every tenth, followed by Hispanic, white and Asian women's.

Table 3. Every group's predicted teen birth share is higher in the most deprived tenth of tracts than in the least deprived

The pooled gradient is steeper than each group's own. The rise for all women exceeds the rise for white women by 3.9 (95% CI 2.3 to 5.2) points, for Hispanic women by 5.3 (95% CI 3.7 to 7.1), for Black women by 7.5 (95% CI 6.0 to 8.9) and for Asian women by 9.8 (95% CI 5.4 to 14.4).

Tracts with a Black estimate are concentrated in the more deprived tenths, with 4,292 tracts in the most deprived tenth against 1,110 in the least deprived. A tract's pooled estimate averages over its women, so a group mix that differs across the scale would change the slope of the pooled line. The data do not size how much of the pooled gradient comes from that mix.

### Black, Hispanic and Asian women raised in the same tract as white women

A comparison inside one tract removes the differences between neighborhoods that a county or ZIP code average mixes in. It needs both groups' estimates in a tract, and the Atlas makes an estimate for a group only where it can measure enough women of that group, so these tracts are not a sample of all tracts. For Black and white women there are 20,884 such tracts, which hold 99.6 million people.

In those tracts Black women's predicted share averages 40.9% (95% CI 40.1% to 41.7%) against 23.3% (95% CI 22.6% to 24.0%) for white women, a gap of 17.6 (95% CI 17.0 to 18.2) points. Counting each tract once gives 17.9 (95% CI 17.4 to 18.5), and the Black share is higher than the white share in 89.6% (95% CI 88.9% to 90.2%) of the tracts.

 (Note: Each tract estimate rests on a modest number of women, and the Atlas adds noise to protect privacy. Noise of that kind spreads the two groups' estimates in both directions, so it pulls the share of tracts with a higher Black estimate toward an even split and not away from one.)

Hispanic women's predicted share is higher than white women's by 10.9 (95% CI 10.3 to 11.5) points across 22,695 tracts that hold 114.3 million people, and it is higher in 79.1% (95% CI 77.9% to 80.2%) of them. Counting each tract once gives a gap of 11.2 (95% CI 10.6 to 11.8) points.

Asian women's share is lower than white women's by 7.1 (95% CI 6.3 to 8.0) points across 7,064 tracts that hold 37.9 million people, and it is higher than white women's in 23.9% (95% CI 21.6% to 26.0%) of them (Table 4). Each comparison uses its own set of tracts, so the three gaps are not measured on one sample. The same comparison for adult income is in Chapter 4.3, Race, income and mobility (https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/race-income-and-mobility), and for incarceration in Chapter 3.4, School discipline and incarceration (https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/school-discipline-and-incarceration).

Table 4. Black women's predicted teen birth share was 17.6 points above white women's in the same tracts, Hispanic women's 10.9 points above and Asian women's 7.1 points below

### The Black-white gap shows no detectable change across the deprivation scale

Sorting tracts on one noisy estimate and then plotting a difference that contains it builds a contrast into the groups, because noise in that estimate enters both the sort and the difference. The tenths in Table 5 are tenths of the ADI, which neither group's estimate contributes to, so the grouping does not sort on either one. In the least deprived tenth the Black-white gap is 18.1 (95% CI 16.2 to 19.6) points, and in the most deprived tenth it is 17.4 (95% CI 16.6 to 18.1) points. The gap in the most deprived tenth minus the gap in the least deprived is −0.7 (95% CI −2.4 to 1.2) points, and the slope of the gap on the ADI rank is −0.1 (95% CI −0.3 to 0.1) points for each ten-rank step. Both intervals include zero, so the data show no detectable change in the gap across the scale.

As a ratio the gap does change. Since the gap in points shows no detectable change while both levels rise, Black women's share is 2.5 (95% CI 2.3 to 2.9) times white women's in the least deprived tenth and 1.5 (95% CI 1.5 to 1.6) times in the most deprived.

Table 5. The Black-white gap in predicted teen birth shares shows no detectable change from the least to the most deprived tenth of tracts, −0.7 points with an interval that includes zero

For Hispanic women the gap is 11.5 (95% CI 10.4 to 12.7) points in the least deprived tenth and 10.7 (95% CI 9.7 to 11.7) in the most deprived, a change of −0.8 (95% CI −2.4 to 0.7) points that also includes zero. The Hispanic ratio falls from 2.1 (95% CI 2.0 to 2.3) to 1.3 (95% CI 1.3 to 1.4).

The Asian-white difference is not constant. It changes by −7.0 (95% CI −12.0 to −2.7) points between the two tenths, so Asian women's shortfall is wider in the most deprived tenth, though it rests on far fewer tracts there. The gradient by deprivation and the gap by race therefore appear side by side, and the gap in points shows no detectable narrowing where deprivation is higher. Black women in the least deprived tenth of tracts have a predicted share of 29.8% (95% CI 28.0% to 31.1%), slightly below the 32.0% (95% CI 31.4% to 32.7%) of white women in the most deprived tenth, whose tracts are different ones. The difference between them is −2.3 (95% CI −4.2 to −0.8) points.

### The gap in county averages is similar under every floor on tracts

A county average damps the noise in a pair of tract estimates. Among the 261 counties with at least 20 tracts that have both estimates, the Black-white gap in county means is 18.1 (95% CI 16.8 to 19.6) points, weighting each county by its population and resampling states. It is positive in every one of those counties (Table 6).

Across counties, Black women's mean share rises 0.85 (95% CI 0.70 to 1.00) points for each point of white women's share. In the tracts of those counties the slope is 0.41 (95% CI 0.35 to 0.46) across tracts and 0.26 (95% CI 0.23 to 0.29) within counties, after each county's means are subtracted from both shares. The lower tract slopes are consistent with noise in a tract's white estimate, which pulls a slope toward zero, and with differences in structure within and between counties. The data do not separate the two. The figure therefore averages tracts to counties before it compares them, and a line of tract means grouped on the white estimate would mix the two.

Table 6. Across counties, Black women's predicted teen birth share rises 0.85 points for each point of white women's, against 0.26 among tracts within the same counties

The county number depends on the floor on tracts. With every county that has a tract pair the gap is 17.6 (95% CI 16.5 to 19.0) points, and it is positive in 94.6% of those counties.

With a floor of 10 tracts (453 counties) the gap is positive in every county, and with a floor of 50 tracts it is 18.1 (95% CI 17.0 to 19.7) points.

A floor on the population of a tract moves the tract gap little. The gap is 17.6 (95% CI 17.0 to 18.2) points for tracts of at least 2,000 residents, 17.3 (95% CI 16.7 to 17.9) for 4,000 and 16.5 (95% CI 15.8 to 17.2) for 6,000.

Counting each tract once, which gives the smallest and noisiest tracts more weight, gives 17.9 (95% CI 17.4 to 18.5) points against 17.6 (95% CI 17.0 to 18.2) with population weights, so noise in small tracts does not move the gap. Under all nine settings the interval for the gap lies above zero (Table 7). The two extreme settings, tracts of at least 6,000 residents and counties with at least 50 tracts, have overlapping intervals.

Table 7. The Black-white gap in predicted teen birth shares has an interval above zero under all nine floors on tracts per county and on tract population

### Evidence on whether contraceptive access changes teen birth rates

Everything above describes shares across places and groups. Whether a change in access to contraception changes teen births is a separate question, and one study with a stated identification strategy bears on it.

> Causal evidence: Whether expanding access to long-acting contraception changes teen birth rates (Difference-in-differences)
>
> The Colorado Family Planning Initiative began in 2009 with private funding to help low-income women gain access to long-acting reversible contraception, such as intrauterine devices and implants, through the state's Title X family-planning clinics. Teen birth rates fell across the United States in the same years, so the fall in Colorado alone does not show what the program did. Lindo and Packham compared the change in teen birth rates in Colorado counties that had a Title X clinic with the change in counties that had a Title X clinic in other states, before and after the program began.[4] The design assumes that the proportional changes in the comparison counties show what would have happened in Colorado without the program.
>
> They estimate that the program reduced the teen birth rate in counties with funded clinics by 6.4% over 5 years, with the reduction concentrated in the second through fifth years and in counties with higher poverty. A state-level synthetic control analysis points the same way but lacks statistical power. The estimate is for teenagers in counties with a clinic in the years around 2009. It does not describe the women born in 1978 to 1983 whose teen births this chapter predicts, and it does not test whether access to contraception accounts for any gap between groups or places shown above.

### The share rises across the tenths of tracts under all four rankings

Table 8 ranks the 66,005 2010 tracts that have an estimate for all women and all four rankings in four ways, with each ranking carried to 2010 tracts by the same land-area crosswalk as the ADI. Ranked by the ADI on this common sample, the predicted share of women is 12.9% (95% CI 11.9% to 13.8%) in the least deprived tenth and 38.2% (95% CI 37.5% to 38.9%) in the most deprived, and the rank correlation between tenth and share is +1.00. Under the standardized index the two ends are 12.0% (95% CI 11.3% to 12.9%) and 38.8% (95% CI 37.6% to 40.0%), with a correlation of +1.00. Under median household income they are 12.7% (95% CI 11.9% to 13.6%) and 38.1% (95% CI 37.4% to 39.0%), and under the bachelor's degree share 13.3% (95% CI 12.2% to 14.6%) and 36.8% (95% CI 36.0% to 37.6%), with correlations of +1.00 and +1.00, so none of the alternatives counts as a change under the book's rule (Chapter 9.1, How far one ranking goes (https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/how-far-one-ranking-goes)).

Table 8. The predicted teen birth share is steadily higher toward the more deprived end under the ADI and under each of the three other rankings

### What these data cannot show

The shares are model predictions for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile. They describe teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s among women from low-income families and say nothing about women from richer families or about teenagers now. A birth counts only when the mother claimed the child as a dependent. The gradient is a pattern across tracts, an ecological pattern, and it does not say that living in a deprived tract raised any woman's chance of a teen birth. The ADI describes the tracts decades after the births, and the staged files hold no deprivation measure from the childhood years.

A same-tract comparison removes differences between neighborhoods but not all differences. Within a tract, women raised at one parental income percentile can still differ in family wealth, in schools, in the block they lived on and in how institutions treated them, and the data describe the gap without explaining it. The staged file has no standard errors and no counts of women, so tracts are weighted by their total 2010 population, which may put the levels too low. The tracts with both estimates are those with enough women of both groups. Asian estimates are low and noisy, and 20% of them are below zero.

Whether a teen birth changes a woman's later income is a separate question that this chapter does not test. Kearney and Levine reviewed state and international comparisons. They argue that early births mostly mark limited economic prospects for disadvantaged girls and carry little direct economic cost, which is a reading of patterns across places.[5] Puerto Rico has Atlas estimates but is not drawn on the map. Connecticut appears under its legacy county codes in the Atlas, and it takes its ADI rank from the 2020 planning-region tracts through the crosswalk.

## Tables

### Table 1. Predicted teen birth shares are higher in the South than in any other region, 33.5% against 21.7% in the Northeast

Predicted share of women with a teen birth, percent, by county of childhood, women born 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile (teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s, not a current rate), races pooled

No inline rows: the values of Table 1 are in https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/data/teen-births/teen_birth_county_map.json.

Note: Each gray county has the reason for its missing value in its tooltip. Puerto Rico has estimates in the Atlas but is not drawn.

Note: The county estimates are model-based and carry privacy noise, so single small counties are noisy. The Atlas lists Connecticut under its legacy counties, which are the eight drawn here, and Valdez-Cordova Census Area (split in 2019) is drawn as its two successors with the same value. Alaska is drawn.

Note: The estimates describe where women born in 1978 to 1983 grew up, not the counties today. Regional means are population-weighted over the counties of the states and the District of Columbia, with 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states.

Note: The key runs from about the 5th to the 95th percentile of county values, weighted by population, so 523 of the 3,126 drawn counties lie outside it and take the color of its nearest end.

Source: Opportunity Atlas county outcomes, 1978-1983 birth cohorts; modeled estimates, regional means population-weighted (2010 census population)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_county_map.json

### Table 2. Predicted teen birth shares rise from 12.9% in the least deprived tenth of tracts to 38.5% in the most deprived

Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) against the Area Deprivation Index national rank, one dot per 2010 tract, women born 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile (teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s, not a current rate), races pooled

No inline rows: the values of Table 2 are in https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/data/teen-births/teen_birth_tract_cloud.json.

Note: The dots are a random sample of 5,000 tracts inside the plotted range (seed 12345); every estimate uses all 71,303 tracts. The spread of the dots includes sampling noise and privacy noise in each tract estimate.

Note: The Area Deprivation Index is built for census block groups from American Community Survey measures for 2019 to 2023, and a 2020 tract's value is the unweighted mean of its block groups' ranks. Each 2010 tract takes the land-area-weighted mean of the values of the 2020 tracts that overlap it, when those with a rank cover at least 50% of its land area. Tenths hold near-equal numbers of tracts, with tied ranks kept together.

Note: Shares are the Atlas's predicted share of women with a teen birth, a child born when the mother was between the ages of 13 and 19 whom she claimed as a dependent, for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile. White, Black and Asian women are non-Hispanic and Hispanic women may be of any race. The Atlas adds noise to its estimates to protect privacy and the staged values are never clipped, so a few fall below 0 or above 100.

Source: Opportunity Atlas tract outcomes, 2010 tracts, 1978-1983 birth cohorts, and Area Deprivation Index, 2023 release (ACS 2019-2023); population-weighted (2010 tract population), modeled estimates

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_by_deprivation_tracts.json

### Table 3. Every group's predicted teen birth share is higher in the most deprived tenth of tracts than in the least deprived

Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) by tenth of the Area Deprivation Index, tracts where each group is estimated, women born 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile (teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s, not a current rate)

| conf_high | conf_low | decile | estimate | n | series |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
| 14.01 | 11.85 | 1 | 12.95 | 7,103 | All women |
| 19.34 | 16.06 | 2 | 17.73 | 7,114 | All women |
| 21.14 | 18.97 | 3 | 20.03 | 7,106 | All women |
| 23.01 | 21.62 | 4 | 22.31 | 7,130 | All women |
| 25.17 | 23.94 | 5 | 24.55 | 7,123 | All women |
| 27.15 | 25.90 | 6 | 26.54 | 7,147 | All women |
| 29.25 | 28.03 | 7 | 28.65 | 7,144 | All women |
| 31.26 | 29.92 | 8 | 30.57 | 7,164 | All women |
| 33.37 | 32.12 | 9 | 32.75 | 7,046 | All women |
| 39.27 | 37.79 | 10 | 38.54 | 7,226 | All women |
| 9.55 | 7.69 | 1 | 8.58 | 6,277 | White women |
| 13.73 | 11.95 | 2 | 12.90 | 6,120 | White women |
| 16.07 | 14.69 | 3 | 15.37 | 6,456 | White women |
| 18.76 | 17.37 | 4 | 18.05 | 6,755 | White women |
| 20.77 | 19.49 | 5 | 20.11 | 6,806 | White women |
| 22.46 | 21.29 | 6 | 21.88 | 6,805 | White women |
| 24.40 | 23.41 | 7 | 23.89 | 6,756 | White women |
| 26.14 | 25.11 | 8 | 25.61 | 6,720 | White women |
| 27.76 | 26.86 | 9 | 27.31 | 6,554 | White women |
| 30.83 | 29.81 | 10 | 30.32 | 5,725 | White women |
| 32.41 | 29.79 | 1 | 31.41 | 1,110 | Black women |
| 35.83 | 30.70 | 2 | 33.39 | 1,951 | Black women |
| 36.72 | 33.53 | 3 | 35.19 | 2,076 | Black women |
| 38.43 | 36.06 | 4 | 37.23 | 2,214 | Black women |
| 40.76 | 38.98 | 5 | 39.86 | 2,533 | Black women |
| 42.40 | 40.31 | 6 | 41.35 | 2,630 | Black women |
| 44.29 | 42.37 | 7 | 43.32 | 2,736 | Black women |
| 45.57 | 44.07 | 8 | 44.82 | 2,747 | Black women |
| 47.29 | 46.16 | 9 | 46.72 | 2,927 | Black women |
| 50.14 | 48.95 | 10 | 49.53 | 4,292 | Black women |
| 24.36 | 20.80 | 1 | 22.41 | 3,548 | Hispanic women |
| 26.47 | 23.48 | 2 | 25.25 | 3,718 | Hispanic women |
| 29.43 | 26.60 | 3 | 28.10 | 3,338 | Hispanic women |
| 32.17 | 29.36 | 4 | 30.75 | 3,032 | Hispanic women |
| 33.90 | 31.20 | 5 | 32.51 | 2,710 | Hispanic women |
| 35.45 | 32.76 | 6 | 34.12 | 2,352 | Hispanic women |
| 37.19 | 34.82 | 7 | 35.96 | 2,089 | Hispanic women |
| 39.20 | 36.94 | 8 | 38.06 | 1,818 | Hispanic women |
| 40.45 | 38.59 | 9 | 39.50 | 1,553 | Hispanic women |
| 43.69 | 41.70 | 10 | 42.69 | 1,627 | Hispanic women |
| 5.28 | 3.65 | 1 | 4.43 | 2,509 | Asian women |
| 7.15 | 5.03 | 2 | 5.99 | 1,778 | Asian women |
| 8.06 | 5.73 | 3 | 6.90 | 1,087 | Asian women |
| 10.08 | 7.03 | 4 | 8.46 | 761 | Asian women |
| 14.26 | 8.81 | 5 | 11.40 | 533 | Asian women |
| 15.51 | 9.42 | 6 | 12.18 | 393 | Asian women |
| 17.45 | 10.13 | 7 | 12.99 | 273 | Asian women |
| 19.74 | 10.30 | 8 | 13.95 | 174 | Asian women |
| 25.62 | 16.66 | 9 | 20.67 | 122 | Asian women |
| 24.51 | 15.73 | 10 | 20.21 | 88 | Asian women |

Note: Each group has its own set of tracts, the tracts where the Atlas has enough women of that group, so the lines differ in part because the places differ. Tenths are tenths of all tracts with an ADI rank, so a tenth means the same part of the deprivation scale for every group. Few tracts with an Asian estimate fall in the most deprived tenths, and their intervals are wide.

Note: The Area Deprivation Index is built for census block groups from American Community Survey measures for 2019 to 2023, and a 2020 tract's value is the unweighted mean of its block groups' ranks. Each 2010 tract takes the land-area-weighted mean of the values of the 2020 tracts that overlap it, when those with a rank cover at least 50% of its land area. Tenths hold near-equal numbers of tracts, with tied ranks kept together.

Note: Shares are the Atlas's predicted share of women with a teen birth, a child born when the mother was between the ages of 13 and 19 whom she claimed as a dependent, for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile. White, Black and Asian women are non-Hispanic and Hispanic women may be of any race. The Atlas adds noise to its estimates to protect privacy and the staged values are never clipped, so a few fall below 0 or above 100.

Source: Opportunity Atlas tract outcomes, 2010 tracts, 1978-1983 birth cohorts, and Area Deprivation Index, 2023 release (ACS 2019-2023); population-weighted (2010 tract population), modeled estimates

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_gradient_by_group.json

### Table 4. Black women's predicted teen birth share was 17.6 points above white women's in the same tracts, Hispanic women's 10.9 points above and Asian women's 7.1 points below

Mean predicted share of women with a teen birth for each group minus the share for white women raised in the same tract, percentage points, tracts where both are estimated, women born 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile (teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s, not a current rate)

| conf_high | conf_low | estimate | group | n |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: |
| 18.19 | 17.01 | 17.59 | Black women | 20,884 |
| 11.50 | 10.31 | 10.92 | Hispanic women | 22,695 |
| −6.31 | −7.96 | −7.11 | Asian women | 7,064 |

Note: Each row uses its own set of tracts, the tracts where that group and white women both have an estimate, so the rows are not a single sample. The number of tracts is in each row's tooltip. Each tract estimate rests on a modest number of women and carries privacy noise; the means average many tracts and the intervals resample counties. Shares are the Atlas's predicted share of women with a teen birth, a child born when the mother was between the ages of 13 and 19 whom she claimed as a dependent, for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile. White, Black and Asian women are non-Hispanic and Hispanic women may be of any race. The Atlas adds noise to its estimates to protect privacy and the staged values are never clipped, so a few fall below 0 or above 100.

Source: Opportunity Atlas tract outcomes, 2010 tracts, 1978-1983 birth cohorts, and Area Deprivation Index, 2023 release (ACS 2019-2023); population-weighted (2010 tract population), modeled estimates

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_gaps_same_tract.json

### Table 5. The Black-white gap in predicted teen birth shares shows no detectable change from the least to the most deprived tenth of tracts, −0.7 points with an interval that includes zero

Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) for white and Black women raised in the same tracts, by tenth of the Area Deprivation Index, women born 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile (teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s, not a current rate)

| Tenth of tracts by ADI | White women (%) | Black women (%) | Gap (points) | Lower limit of the 95% interval for the gap | Upper limit of the 95% interval for the gap | Tracts |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Tenth 1 (least deprived) | 11.7 | 29.8 | 18.1 | 16.2 | 19.6 | 696 |
| Tenth 2 | 14.9 | 32.6 | 17.7 | 16.1 | 19.2 | 1,372 |
| Tenth 3 | 16.7 | 34.2 | 17.5 | 16.3 | 18.7 | 1,634 |
| Tenth 4 | 19.4 | 36.9 | 17.5 | 16.3 | 18.6 | 1,953 |
| Tenth 5 | 21.1 | 39.5 | 18.3 | 17.4 | 19.3 | 2,288 |
| Tenth 6 | 23.0 | 41.0 | 18.0 | 16.9 | 19.3 | 2,366 |
| Tenth 7 | 25.5 | 43.0 | 17.5 | 16.7 | 18.4 | 2,443 |
| Tenth 8 | 27.2 | 44.4 | 17.2 | 16.5 | 17.9 | 2,410 |
| Tenth 9 | 29.4 | 46.5 | 17.0 | 16.4 | 17.7 | 2,570 |
| Tenth 10 (most deprived) | 32.0 | 49.4 | 17.4 | 16.6 | 18.1 | 3,152 |

Note: The tracts are those where the Atlas estimates both groups, and tenths are formed on the ADI, a measure that neither estimate contributes to, so the grouping does not sort on either noisy estimate. Few tracts in the least deprived tenths have a Black estimate. The Area Deprivation Index is built for census block groups from American Community Survey measures for 2019 to 2023, and a 2020 tract's value is the unweighted mean of its block groups' ranks. Each 2010 tract takes the land-area-weighted mean of the values of the 2020 tracts that overlap it, when those with a rank cover at least 50% of its land area. Tenths hold near-equal numbers of tracts, with tied ranks kept together.

Note: Shares are the Atlas's predicted share of women with a teen birth, a child born when the mother was between the ages of 13 and 19 whom she claimed as a dependent, for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile. White, Black and Asian women are non-Hispanic and Hispanic women may be of any race. The Atlas adds noise to its estimates to protect privacy and the staged values are never clipped, so a few fall below 0 or above 100.

Source: Opportunity Atlas tract outcomes, 2010 tracts, 1978-1983 birth cohorts, and Area Deprivation Index, 2023 release (ACS 2019-2023); population-weighted (2010 tract population), modeled estimates

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_black_white_by_deprivation.json

### Table 6. Across counties, Black women's predicted teen birth share rises 0.85 points for each point of white women's, against 0.26 among tracts within the same counties

Mean predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) for Black women against white women, counties with at least a minimum number of tracts where both are estimated, women born 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile (teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s, not a current rate)

| black | n | white |
| ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 46.15 | 20 | 30.63 |
| 40.49 | 102 | 22.94 |
| 41.06 | 20 | 26.32 |
| 45.02 | 44 | 26.40 |
| 46.42 | 78 | 26.99 |
| 47.88 | 46 | 25.45 |
| 50.53 | 20 | 35.96 |
| 45.79 | 32 | 24.85 |
| 27.30 | 29 | 21.66 |
| 44.50 | 159 | 28.23 |
| 35.43 | 26 | 24.18 |
| 42.55 | 75 | 23.05 |
| 33.35 | 132 | 16.09 |
| 37.31 | 74 | 17.54 |
| 45.77 | 52 | 25.11 |
| 53.95 | 44 | 27.91 |
| 37.25 | 385 | 16.12 |
| 31.84 | 28 | 19.12 |
| 38.81 | 123 | 19.37 |
| 40.99 | 161 | 20.13 |
| 41.05 | 231 | 22.79 |
| 32.24 | 173 | 15.74 |
| 39.46 | 52 | 20.60 |
| 31.13 | 60 | 17.42 |
| 35.47 | 72 | 20.29 |
| 36.01 | 66 | 19.74 |
| 40.34 | 43 | 23.57 |
| 39.39 | 62 | 24.88 |
| 31.71 | 60 | 16.42 |
| 32.68 | 65 | 16.93 |
| 36.42 | 66 | 15.75 |
| 36.21 | 20 | 22.77 |
| 45.14 | 27 | 26.23 |
| 38.53 | 78 | 23.58 |
| 47.08 | 27 | 25.17 |
| 40.28 | 34 | 18.67 |
| 39.62 | 21 | 28.46 |
| 37.33 | 53 | 23.28 |
| 28.10 | 221 | 15.23 |
| 43.61 | 133 | 25.87 |
| 44.73 | 57 | 25.71 |
| 40.62 | 151 | 24.78 |
| 38.95 | 20 | 24.17 |
| 37.99 | 28 | 26.15 |
| 35.29 | 48 | 17.81 |
| 46.57 | 29 | 26.17 |
| 33.82 | 139 | 16.23 |
| 39.16 | 23 | 24.51 |
| 34.45 | 126 | 20.97 |
| 33.43 | 20 | 21.45 |
| 32.33 | 132 | 18.17 |
| 49.60 | 50 | 21.91 |
| 49.99 | 69 | 30.88 |
| 34.66 | 29 | 21.80 |
| 34.95 | 51 | 18.72 |
| 38.25 | 38 | 23.95 |
| 47.51 | 33 | 29.74 |
| 42.70 | 42 | 30.11 |
| 47.90 | 22 | 19.28 |
| 42.60 | 45 | 29.42 |
| 36.20 | 95 | 20.96 |
| 37.53 | 83 | 17.92 |
| 45.96 | 22 | 27.45 |
| 37.80 | 70 | 17.97 |
| 33.29 | 101 | 17.40 |
| 40.21 | 25 | 26.42 |
| 42.70 | 23 | 26.18 |
| 46.90 | 20 | 28.80 |
| 41.88 | 40 | 30.43 |
| 43.76 | 40 | 29.55 |
| 47.81 | 21 | 21.12 |
| 46.73 | 286 | 15.50 |
| 38.08 | 45 | 12.72 |
| 55.83 | 41 | 29.78 |
| 49.06 | 31 | 25.64 |
| 56.68 | 20 | 37.76 |
| 45.46 | 24 | 26.33 |
| 52.94 | 28 | 28.40 |
| 43.44 | 35 | 23.96 |
| 47.51 | 25 | 31 |
| 44.21 | 45 | 20.65 |
| 60.46 | 39 | 26.72 |
| 47.07 | 35 | 30.59 |
| 47.64 | 38 | 26.48 |
| 48.05 | 138 | 28.68 |
| 49.49 | 38 | 27.54 |
| 44.74 | 24 | 25.68 |
| 50.25 | 46 | 29.15 |
| 40.02 | 25 | 26.73 |
| 46.97 | 38 | 35.44 |
| 41.04 | 39 | 28.05 |
| 43.81 | 96 | 26.78 |
| 45.23 | 22 | 28.54 |
| 46.39 | 50 | 27.14 |
| 49.44 | 24 | 30.59 |
| 43.70 | 64 | 21.41 |
| 47.46 | 67 | 24.39 |
| 43.91 | 34 | 22.75 |
| 45.24 | 64 | 20.41 |
| 49.49 | 25 | 23.97 |
| 50.47 | 20 | 30.11 |
| 41.02 | 23 | 23.60 |
| 53.53 | 20 | 24.80 |
| 39.03 | 62 | 20.67 |
| 39.15 | 100 | 17.40 |
| 33.73 | 27 | 20.50 |
| 38.25 | 21 | 24.19 |
| 30 | 33 | 13.76 |
| 23.98 | 131 | 13.06 |
| 30.62 | 142 | 22.39 |
| 49.07 | 77 | 19.06 |
| 39.48 | 28 | 22.98 |
| 17.71 | 49 | 12.76 |
| 25.21 | 40 | 15.64 |
| 34.24 | 24 | 19.61 |
| 44.81 | 38 | 24.88 |
| 41.90 | 34 | 24.58 |
| 47.57 | 26 | 23.85 |
| 51.75 | 51 | 26.84 |
| 40.92 | 27 | 17.91 |
| 34.09 | 68 | 13.42 |
| 45.57 | 24 | 24.56 |
| 35.91 | 43 | 15.04 |
| 43.17 | 131 | 23.03 |
| 42.51 | 110 | 16.44 |
| 46.09 | 47 | 21.71 |
| 47.36 | 29 | 30.23 |
| 44.57 | 38 | 30.95 |
| 45.83 | 41 | 21.96 |
| 43.70 | 22 | 29.84 |
| 46.04 | 89 | 26.15 |
| 42.22 | 91 | 22.08 |
| 52.57 | 51 | 23.70 |
| 44.70 | 50 | 26.62 |
| 47.91 | 195 | 26.58 |
| 45.27 | 26 | 20.96 |
| 24.20 | 26 | 9.26 |
| 35.04 | 55 | 17.71 |
| 39.40 | 59 | 16.57 |
| 51.33 | 22 | 25.34 |
| 31.16 | 46 | 6.49 |
| 43.82 | 31 | 16.39 |
| 35.70 | 28 | 12.80 |
| 39.86 | 39 | 15.82 |
| 26.57 | 75 | 9.31 |
| 34.66 | 33 | 16.12 |
| 37.91 | 25 | 14.58 |
| 31.76 | 53 | 8.77 |
| 32.90 | 43 | 10.90 |
| 29.52 | 21 | 21.29 |
| 46.72 | 35 | 22.33 |
| 26.25 | 80 | 4.42 |
| 41.72 | 73 | 19.85 |
| 25.16 | 55 | 9.01 |
| 27.88 | 37 | 8.96 |
| 48.34 | 36 | 20.75 |
| 37.91 | 26 | 17.09 |
| 23.31 | 57 | 7.65 |
| 40.22 | 27 | 10.32 |
| 22.94 | 22 | 7.61 |
| 36.34 | 60 | 12.13 |
| 27.48 | 72 | 10.96 |
| 40.32 | 22 | 30.82 |
| 51.58 | 22 | 26.49 |
| 39.80 | 60 | 27.58 |
| 36.32 | 43 | 18.20 |
| 42.99 | 52 | 24.26 |
| 52.23 | 32 | 34.29 |
| 39.08 | 74 | 23.76 |
| 43.86 | 22 | 25.33 |
| 40.91 | 135 | 22.11 |
| 39.03 | 22 | 21.01 |
| 38.74 | 23 | 24.25 |
| 47.45 | 28 | 22.05 |
| 46.47 | 22 | 35.09 |
| 53.96 | 20 | 29.02 |
| 37.49 | 107 | 16.90 |
| 41.96 | 24 | 25.02 |
| 41.80 | 26 | 25.73 |
| 42.49 | 136 | 18.58 |
| 42.72 | 158 | 29.84 |
| 49.28 | 111 | 26.60 |
| 49.88 | 28 | 30.80 |
| 47.77 | 60 | 28.92 |
| 49.23 | 22 | 24.70 |
| 45.20 | 61 | 27.53 |
| 45.63 | 38 | 27.95 |
| 44.90 | 54 | 23.04 |
| 43.43 | 22 | 29.30 |
| 45.08 | 118 | 26.95 |
| 44.82 | 69 | 25.26 |
| 40.48 | 41 | 20.79 |
| 42.74 | 104 | 17.44 |
| 47.77 | 22 | 25.45 |
| 43.95 | 23 | 16.94 |
| 33.72 | 22 | 18.30 |
| 42.83 | 32 | 23.16 |
| 41.01 | 43 | 16.88 |
| 52.12 | 20 | 26.16 |
| 41.27 | 20 | 23.62 |
| 33.39 | 47 | 12.61 |
| 44.78 | 117 | 18.59 |
| 32.48 | 38 | 22.29 |
| 43.07 | 28 | 26.81 |
| 48.45 | 32 | 33.85 |
| 39.49 | 34 | 28 |
| 38.03 | 58 | 19.37 |
| 38.79 | 23 | 27.03 |
| 39.41 | 29 | 24.35 |
| 45.21 | 78 | 22.28 |
| 42.83 | 33 | 24.60 |
| 37.70 | 36 | 23.75 |
| 40.15 | 61 | 20.29 |
| 49.22 | 51 | 30.54 |
| 43.68 | 21 | 27.47 |
| 48.39 | 31 | 29.91 |
| 42.36 | 108 | 28.79 |
| 45.65 | 45 | 28.07 |
| 45.23 | 42 | 27.66 |
| 47.27 | 20 | 29.81 |
| 41 | 33 | 28.39 |
| 44.09 | 33 | 31.13 |
| 45.26 | 136 | 27.07 |
| 40.68 | 49 | 28.96 |
| 37.09 | 120 | 22.18 |
| 37.15 | 27 | 28.42 |
| 51.38 | 20 | 25.20 |
| 34.29 | 50 | 16.60 |
| 44.31 | 341 | 27.80 |
| 42.70 | 39 | 25.26 |
| 32.49 | 34 | 23.04 |
| 33.41 | 53 | 19.24 |
| 36.49 | 44 | 27.01 |
| 44.89 | 23 | 30.05 |
| 38.59 | 417 | 23.46 |
| 45.03 | 39 | 29.08 |
| 49.41 | 30 | 30.55 |
| 44.64 | 31 | 31.45 |
| 40.88 | 29 | 27.61 |
| 43.27 | 193 | 26.07 |
| 41.50 | 83 | 26.44 |
| 41.40 | 22 | 30.80 |
| 35.42 | 23 | 18.48 |
| 32.41 | 56 | 20.45 |
| 24.38 | 123 | 12.39 |
| 34.92 | 43 | 19.47 |
| 32.86 | 54 | 22.53 |
| 40.44 | 21 | 26.07 |
| 28.47 | 26 | 15.87 |
| 35.37 | 37 | 23.06 |
| 39.96 | 30 | 24.43 |
| 37.68 | 38 | 25.08 |
| 43.53 | 47 | 26.48 |
| 43.70 | 28 | 23.03 |
| 40.88 | 21 | 27.28 |
| 33.59 | 80 | 21.13 |
| 32.44 | 114 | 18.64 |
| 38.83 | 75 | 25.30 |
| 51.85 | 28 | 19.82 |
| 51.01 | 99 | 24.71 |
| 58.29 | 24 | 29.58 |

Note: A county enters when at least 20 of its tracts have both estimates, and county means weight each tract by its 2010 population. In the tracts of these counties the slope is 0.41 across tracts and 0.26 within counties (each tract's shares minus its county's means), against 0.85 between county means. Noise in the white estimate is one candidate explanation for the lower tract slopes, and the data do not separate it from structure within and between counties. Shares are the Atlas's predicted share of women with a teen birth, a child born when the mother was between the ages of 13 and 19 whom she claimed as a dependent, for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile. White, Black and Asian women are non-Hispanic and Hispanic women may be of any race. The Atlas adds noise to its estimates to protect privacy and the staged values are never clipped, so a few fall below 0 or above 100.

Source: Opportunity Atlas tract outcomes, 2010 tracts, 1978-1983 birth cohorts, and Area Deprivation Index, 2023 release (ACS 2019-2023); population-weighted (2010 tract population), modeled estimates

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_black_white_counties.json

### Table 7. The Black-white gap in predicted teen birth shares has an interval above zero under all nine floors on tracts per county and on tract population

Mean predicted share of women with a teen birth for Black women minus white women raised in the same places, percentage points, by floor, women born 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile (teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s, not a current rate)

| conf_high | conf_low | estimate | floor | kind | n |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | --- | ---: |
| 18.98 | 16.54 | 17.59 | Every county with a tract pair | Minimum tracts per county | 1,318 |
| 18.98 | 16.66 | 17.74 | Counties with at least 5 tracts | Minimum tracts per county | 719 |
| 19.20 | 16.70 | 17.86 | Counties with at least 10 tracts | Minimum tracts per county | 453 |
| 19.59 | 16.84 | 18.06 | Counties with at least 20 tracts | Minimum tracts per county | 261 |
| 19.67 | 16.96 | 18.14 | Counties with at least 50 tracts | Minimum tracts per county | 102 |
| 18.19 | 17.01 | 17.59 | Every tract | Minimum residents per tract | 20,884 |
| 18.18 | 17.03 | 17.57 | Tracts with at least 2,000 residents | Minimum residents per tract | 19,836 |
| 17.94 | 16.69 | 17.27 | Tracts with at least 4,000 residents | Minimum residents per tract | 12,788 |
| 17.21 | 15.78 | 16.50 | Tracts with at least 6,000 residents | Minimum residents per tract | 4,790 |

Note: County rows weight each tract by its 2010 population within the county and each county by its summed population, with intervals from a bootstrap over states. Tract rows weight each tract by its 2010 population, with intervals from a bootstrap over counties. The number of counties or tracts is in each row's tooltip. Shares are the Atlas's predicted share of women with a teen birth, a child born when the mother was between the ages of 13 and 19 whom she claimed as a dependent, for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile. White, Black and Asian women are non-Hispanic and Hispanic women may be of any race. The Atlas adds noise to its estimates to protect privacy and the staged values are never clipped, so a few fall below 0 or above 100.

Source: Opportunity Atlas tract outcomes, 2010 tracts, 1978-1983 birth cohorts, and Area Deprivation Index, 2023 release (ACS 2019-2023); population-weighted (2010 tract population), modeled estimates

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_gap_floors.json

### Table 8. The predicted teen birth share is steadily higher toward the more deprived end under the ADI and under each of the three other rankings

Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) by tenth of tracts ranked four ways, over the 66,005 tracts that have all four rankings

| bin | conf_high | conf_low | estimate | n_units | ranking |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
| 1 | 13.78 | 11.93 | 12.90 | 6,617 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 2 | 19.58 | 16.44 | 18.04 | 6,508 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 3 | 21.02 | 18.99 | 19.99 | 6,622 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 4 | 23.05 | 21.64 | 22.38 | 6,589 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 5 | 25.09 | 23.87 | 24.51 | 6,611 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 6 | 27.15 | 25.87 | 26.52 | 6,604 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 7 | 29.10 | 27.89 | 28.51 | 6,568 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 8 | 31.05 | 29.65 | 30.36 | 6,657 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 9 | 33.17 | 31.88 | 32.53 | 6,613 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 10 | 38.92 | 37.46 | 38.19 | 6,616 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 1 | 12.90 | 11.25 | 12.04 | 6,575 | Standardized index |
| 2 | 17.83 | 16.55 | 17.18 | 6,578 | Standardized index |
| 3 | 20.82 | 19.82 | 20.32 | 6,588 | Standardized index |
| 4 | 22.71 | 21.72 | 22.24 | 6,599 | Standardized index |
| 5 | 24.88 | 23.89 | 24.38 | 6,605 | Standardized index |
| 6 | 26.80 | 25.78 | 26.29 | 6,609 | Standardized index |
| 7 | 28.81 | 27.63 | 28.23 | 6,612 | Standardized index |
| 8 | 31.24 | 29.93 | 30.61 | 6,610 | Standardized index |
| 9 | 34.21 | 32.66 | 33.44 | 6,611 | Standardized index |
| 10 | 40.03 | 37.63 | 38.85 | 6,618 | Standardized index |
| 1 | 13.57 | 11.93 | 12.74 | 6,582 | Median household income |
| 2 | 18.32 | 17.00 | 17.64 | 6,585 | Median household income |
| 3 | 21.17 | 20.09 | 20.63 | 6,592 | Median household income |
| 4 | 23.42 | 22.33 | 22.88 | 6,596 | Median household income |
| 5 | 25.27 | 24.29 | 24.79 | 6,611 | Median household income |
| 6 | 26.94 | 25.94 | 26.45 | 6,606 | Median household income |
| 7 | 28.69 | 27.61 | 28.16 | 6,613 | Median household income |
| 8 | 30.79 | 29.66 | 30.24 | 6,609 | Median household income |
| 9 | 33.58 | 32.39 | 32.99 | 6,611 | Median household income |
| 10 | 38.96 | 37.35 | 38.15 | 6,600 | Median household income |
| 1 | 14.56 | 12.20 | 13.34 | 6,568 | Bachelor's degree share |
| 2 | 17.85 | 16.08 | 16.95 | 6,577 | Bachelor's degree share |
| 3 | 20.72 | 19.21 | 19.95 | 6,596 | Bachelor's degree share |
| 4 | 22.91 | 21.61 | 22.26 | 6,595 | Bachelor's degree share |
| 5 | 25.10 | 23.85 | 24.49 | 6,605 | Bachelor's degree share |
| 6 | 26.76 | 25.63 | 26.20 | 6,604 | Bachelor's degree share |
| 7 | 28.68 | 27.66 | 28.18 | 6,614 | Bachelor's degree share |
| 8 | 30.66 | 29.60 | 30.14 | 6,609 | Bachelor's degree share |
| 9 | 33.22 | 32.04 | 32.63 | 6,620 | Bachelor's degree share |
| 10 | 37.62 | 35.98 | 36.83 | 6,617 | Bachelor's degree share |

Note: Least and most deprived tenth: ADI 12.9% and 38.2%, rank correlation +1.00; standardized index 12.0% and 38.8%, +1.00; median household income 12.7% and 38.1%, +1.00; bachelor's degree share 13.3% and 36.8%, +1.00.

Note: The standardized index applies the ADI's coefficients to its measures after standardizing each one, so home value and income carry less weight than in the ADI. Income and degree share are single census measures, each ranked from the highest value to the lowest.

Source: Opportunity Atlas tract outcomes, 2010 tracts, 1978-1983 birth cohorts, and Area Deprivation Index, 2023 release (ACS 2019-2023); population-weighted (2010 tract population), modeled estimates; ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 tract tables (B19013, B15003 and the 15 rebuilt ADI measures)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/alt_rankings.json

## All estimates

Every fact in facts.json (128), sorted by id.

| Fact id | Value | Unit | Estimand | Population | Period | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Note |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| adi_cover | 50% | percent of a 2010 tract's land area | minimum land area of a 2010 tract covered by 2020 tracts that have an ADI rank for the tract to take a rank (a rule) | 2010 census tracts | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | none (rule) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| age_high | 19 | years of age | upper age limit in the Atlas definition of a teen birth (the mother's age at the child's birth) | women in the Opportunity Atlas teen birth measure | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s |   |   | none (definition) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| age_low | 13 | years of age | lower age limit in the Atlas definition of a teen birth (the mother's age at the child's birth) | women in the Opportunity Atlas teen birth measure | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s |   |   | none (definition) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| alt_adi_least | 12.9% | Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) | population-weighted mean of the tract predicted teen birth share for all women (2010 tract population as the weight); 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties | the least deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Area Deprivation Index, among the tracts with all four rankings | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 11.9% to 13.8% | 6,617 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| alt_adi_most | 38.2% | Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) | population-weighted mean of the tract predicted teen birth share for all women (2010 tract population as the weight); 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties | the most deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Area Deprivation Index, among the tracts with all four rankings | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 37.5% to 38.9% | 6,616 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| alt_adi_rho | +1.00 | rank correlation | Spearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted once | the bins of tracts ranked by Area Deprivation Index | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | each bin counted once | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| alt_degree_least | 13.3% | Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) | population-weighted mean of the tract predicted teen birth share for all women (2010 tract population as the weight); 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties | the least deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Bachelor's degree share, among the tracts with all four rankings | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 12.2% to 14.6% | 6,568 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| alt_degree_most | 36.8% | Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) | population-weighted mean of the tract predicted teen birth share for all women (2010 tract population as the weight); 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties | the most deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Bachelor's degree share, among the tracts with all four rankings | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 36.0% to 37.6% | 6,617 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| alt_degree_rho | +1.00 | rank correlation | Spearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted once | the bins of tracts ranked by Bachelor's degree share | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | each bin counted once | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| alt_income_least | 12.7% | Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) | population-weighted mean of the tract predicted teen birth share for all women (2010 tract population as the weight); 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties | the least deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Median household income, among the tracts with all four rankings | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 11.9% to 13.6% | 6,582 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| alt_income_most | 38.1% | Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) | population-weighted mean of the tract predicted teen birth share for all women (2010 tract population as the weight); 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties | the most deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Median household income, among the tracts with all four rankings | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 37.4% to 39.0% | 6,600 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| alt_income_rho | +1.00 | rank correlation | Spearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted once | the bins of tracts ranked by Median household income | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | each bin counted once | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| alt_n_places | 66,005 | tracts | count of tracts in the common sample of the ranking comparison | tracts with the outcome and all four rankings | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| alt_rho_cut | 0.9 | absolute rank correlation | threshold between a steady and an uneven gradient | the rule for changed gradients (docs/RANKING_SWITCH_RULE.md) | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | none (a fixed rule) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| alt_rho_margin | 0.1 | absolute rank correlation | smallest move in the rank correlation that counts as a change of shape | the rule for changed gradients (docs/RANKING_SWITCH_RULE.md) | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | none (a fixed rule) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| alt_std_least | 12.0% | Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) | population-weighted mean of the tract predicted teen birth share for all women (2010 tract population as the weight); 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties | the least deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Standardized index, among the tracts with all four rankings | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 11.3% to 12.9% | 6,575 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| alt_std_most | 38.8% | Predicted share of women with a teen birth (percent) | population-weighted mean of the tract predicted teen birth share for all women (2010 tract population as the weight); 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties | the most deprived tenth of tracts ranked by Standardized index, among the tracts with all four rankings | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 37.6% to 40.0% | 6,618 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| alt_std_rho | +1.00 | rank correlation | Spearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted once | the bins of tracts ranked by Standardized index | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | each bin counted once | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| asian_neg_share | 20% | percent of tracts with an Asian estimate | share of those estimates that are below zero (privacy noise, never clipped) | 2010 census tracts with an Atlas estimate for Asian women | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s |   | 7,732 tracts | none (each tract counts once) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| black_bw | 40.9% | percent of women with a teen birth | predicted share, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Black women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas also estimates non-Hispanic white women | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 40.1% to 41.7% | 20,884 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| corr_adi | +0.58 | correlation coefficient | population-weighted correlation of the predicted teen birth share with the ADI national rank, county-bootstrap interval | all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 0.55 to 0.60 | 71,303 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| corr_adi_common | +0.58 | correlation coefficient | population-weighted correlation of the predicted teen birth share with the ADI national rank, on the tracts with a 1990 poverty rate, county-bootstrap interval | all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with a 1990 poverty rate | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 0.55 to 0.60 | 71,295 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| corr_adult | −0.72 | correlation coefficient | population-weighted correlation of the predicted teen birth share with women's mean adult household income rank (percentile), both for the same cohort, county-bootstrap interval | tracts with an Atlas estimate of teen births and of women's adult household income rank, women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s | 95% CI −0.74 to −0.71 | 71,303 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| corr_multi | +0.60 | correlation coefficient | population-weighted correlation of the predicted teen birth share with the ADI national rank (rank averaged over the overlapping tracts by land area), county-bootstrap interval | tracts that overlap more than one 2020 tract, with an Atlas estimate for all women | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 0.57 to 0.62 | 31,104 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| corr_pov1990 | +0.53 | correlation coefficient | population-weighted correlation of the predicted teen birth share with the 1990 tract poverty rate, county-bootstrap interval | all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with a 1990 poverty rate | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 0.51 to 0.55 | 71,295 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| corr_single | +0.56 | correlation coefficient | population-weighted correlation of the predicted teen birth share with the ADI national rank, county-bootstrap interval | tracts that overlap exactly one 2020 tract, with an Atlas estimate for all women | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 0.53 to 0.59 | 40,199 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| cross_black_d1 | 29.8% | percent of women with a teen birth | predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Black women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the least deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both Black and white women | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 28.0% to 31.1% | 20,884 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| cross_diff | −2.3 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black women in the least deprived tenth minus white women in the most deprived tenth | mean for Black women in the least deprived tenth of tracts minus mean for white women in the most deprived tenth, county-bootstrap interval from the same draws | non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI −4.2 to −0.8 | 20,884 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| cross_white_d10 | 32.0% | percent of women with a teen birth | predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the most deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both Black and white women | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 31.4% to 32.7% | 20,884 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| cty_mean | 28.5% | percent of women with a teen birth | predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over counties (2010 census population as the weight), bootstrap interval over states | women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in the states and the District of Columbia | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s | 95% CI 26.4% to 30.8% | 3,125 counties | 2010 census county population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| cty_p5 | 16.0% | percent of women with a teen birth | population-weighted 5th percentile of the county values | women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in the states and the District of Columbia | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s |   | 3,125 counties | 2010 census county population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| cty_p95 | 41.4% | percent of women with a teen birth | population-weighted 95th percentile of the county values | women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in the states and the District of Columbia | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s |   | 3,125 counties | 2010 census county population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| d10_pooled | 38.5% | percent of women with a teen birth | predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval; tenths hold near-equal numbers of tracts | all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the most deprived tenth of tracts by ADI rank | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 37.8% to 39.3% | 7,226 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| d1_pooled | 12.9% | percent of women with a teen birth | predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval; tenths hold near-equal numbers of tracts | all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the least deprived tenth of tracts by ADI rank | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 11.9% to 14.0% | 7,103 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| floor_county | 20 | tracts | minimum number of tracts with both estimates for a county to enter the county version | counties in the county version of the comparison | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | none (inclusion rule) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| floor_max | 50 | tracts | largest minimum number of tracts tried | counties in the county version of the comparison | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | none (inclusion rule) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| floor_pos | 10 | tracts | smallest minimum number of tracts tried at which the gap is positive in every county | counties in the county version of the comparison | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | none (inclusion rule) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_bw | 17.6 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black women minus white | mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 17.0 to 18.2 | 20,884 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_bw_change | −0.7 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, gap in the most deprived tenth minus gap in the least deprived tenth | Black-white gap in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus the gap in the least deprived tenth, county-bootstrap interval from the same draws | non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI −2.4 to 1.2 | 20,884 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_bw_d1 | 18.1 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black minus white | mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares within a tenth of tracts by ADI rank, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the least deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 16.2 to 19.6 | 696 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_bw_d10 | 17.4 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black minus white | mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares within a tenth of tracts by ADI rank, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the most deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 16.6 to 18.1 | 3,152 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_bw_slope10 | −0.1 | percentage points of women with a teen birth per ten points of ADI national rank, Black minus white | population-weighted slope of the tract's Black-white gap on the ADI national rank, times ten, county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI −0.3 to 0.1 | 20,884 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_bw_unw | 17.9 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, group minus white | mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares, each tract counted once, county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 17.4 to 18.5 | 20,884 tracts | none (each tract counts once) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_cty_f1 | 17.6 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black minus white | population-weighted mean over counties of the gap in county mean predicted shares (county mean = tract mean weighted by 2010 population), bootstrap interval over states | non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in counties with at least one tract where the Atlas estimates both | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 16.5 to 19.0 | 1,318 counties | 2010 census population summed to the county | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_cty_f20 | 18.1 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black minus white | population-weighted mean over counties of the gap in county mean predicted shares (county mean = tract mean weighted by 2010 population), bootstrap interval over states | non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in counties with at least 20 tracts where the Atlas estimates both | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 16.8 to 19.6 | 261 counties | 2010 census population summed to the county | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_cty_f50 | 18.1 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black minus white | population-weighted mean over counties of the gap in county mean predicted shares (county mean = tract mean weighted by 2010 population), bootstrap interval over states | non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in counties with at least 50 tracts where the Atlas estimates both | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 17.0 to 19.7 | 102 counties | 2010 census population summed to the county | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_hw | 10.9 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, Hispanic women minus white | mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | Hispanic women of any race and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 10.3 to 11.5 | 22,695 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_hw_change | −0.8 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, gap in the most deprived tenth minus gap in the least deprived tenth | Hispanic-white gap in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus the gap in the least deprived tenth, county-bootstrap interval from the same draws | Hispanic women of any race and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI −2.4 to 0.7 | 22,695 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_hw_d1 | 11.5 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, Hispanic minus white | mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares within a tenth of tracts by ADI rank, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the least deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 10.4 to 12.7 | 3,010 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_hw_d10 | 10.7 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, Hispanic minus white | mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares within a tenth of tracts by ADI rank, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the most deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 9.7 to 11.7 | 1,253 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_hw_unw | 11.2 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, group minus white | mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares, each tract counted once, county-bootstrap interval | Hispanic women of any race and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 10.6 to 11.8 | 22,695 tracts | none (each tract counts once) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_pf_2000 | 17.6 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black minus white | mean over tracts of the gap, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with at least 2000 residents where the Atlas estimates both | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 17.0 to 18.2 | 19,836 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_pf_4000 | 17.3 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black minus white | mean over tracts of the gap, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with at least 4000 residents where the Atlas estimates both | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 16.7 to 17.9 | 12,788 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_pf_6000 | 16.5 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, Black minus white | mean over tracts of the gap, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with at least 6000 residents where the Atlas estimates both | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 15.8 to 17.2 | 4,790 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_wa | 7.1 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, white minus Asian | mean over tracts of the gap in predicted teen birth shares, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Asian women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 6.3 to 8.0 | 7,064 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| gap_wa_change | −7.0 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, Asian-white difference in the most deprived tenth minus the difference in the least deprived tenth | Asian minus white difference in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus the difference in the least deprived tenth, county-bootstrap interval from the same draws | non-Hispanic Asian women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI −12.0 to −2.7 | 7,064 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| level_diff | 3.6 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, Atlas county estimates minus tract estimates | population-weighted mean of the Atlas's county estimates minus the population-weighted mean of the tract estimates in the same counties, both weighted by 2010 population, bootstrap interval over states | women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the counties that have both an Atlas county estimate and tracts in the gradient | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 3.2 to 3.9 | 3,113 counties | 2010 census population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| lp_effect | 6.4% | percent reduction in the county teen birth rate | difference-in-differences estimate of the reduction in the teen birth rate of 15- to 19-year-old women in counties with funded clinics, relative to comparison counties, reported in the abstract of Lindo and Packham (2017); copied from the paper and not computed in this build | Colorado counties with a Title X family-planning clinic whose clinics received program funding, against counties with a Title X clinic in other states | the five years after the program began in 2009 |   |   | none (reported estimate) | Published estimates from cited studies | A published estimate, not a result of this build. |
| lp_years | 5 | years after the program began | length of the post-program window over which the abstract of Lindo and Packham (2017) reports the reduction in the teen birth rate; copied from the paper and not computed in this build | Colorado counties with a Title X family-planning clinic whose clinics received program funding | the five years after the program began in 2009 |   |   | none (reported estimate) | Published estimates from cited studies | A published figure, not a result of this build. |
| mean_asian | 7.4% | percent of women with a teen birth | predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Asian women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 6.5% to 8.7% | 7,718 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| mean_black | 41.3% | percent of women with a teen birth | predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Black women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 40.4% to 42.1% | 25,216 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| mean_hisp | 31.0% | percent of women with a teen birth | predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | Hispanic women of any race raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 29.8% to 32.3% | 25,785 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| mean_pooled | 25.0% | percent of women with a teen birth | predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 24.3% to 25.6% | 71,303 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| mean_pooled_unw | 25.5% | percent of women with a teen birth | predicted share of women with a teen birth, mean over tracts with each tract counted once, county-bootstrap interval | all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 24.7% to 26.2% | 71,303 tracts | none (each tract counts once) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| mean_white | 20.0% | percent of women with a teen birth | predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 19.3% to 20.7% | 64,974 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_below_zero | 451 | tracts | count of tracts with a negative published value (privacy noise, never clipped) | tracts whose estimate for all women is below zero | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s |   | 71,646 tracts | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_black_d1 | 1,110 | tracts | count of tracts | tracts in the least deprived tenth with an Atlas estimate for Black women | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_black_d10 | 4,292 | tracts | count of tracts | tracts in the most deprived tenth with an Atlas estimate for Black women | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_cloud | 5,000 | tracts | size of a random sample drawn with a fixed seed | tracts drawn at random for the scatter plot | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   | 71,303 tracts | none (sample size) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_cloud_outside | 16 | tracts | count of tracts outside the plotted range of the scatter plot | all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_cty | 3,125 | counties | count of counties | counties in the states and the District of Columbia with an Atlas estimate for all women | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s |   |   | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_cty_drawn | 3,126 | counties | count of drawn counties with an Atlas estimate | counties and county equivalents drawn with a value on the map | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s |   |   | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_cty_f10 | 453 | counties | count of counties | counties with at least 10 tracts where the Atlas estimates both Black and white women | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_cty_f20 | 261 | counties | count of counties | counties with at least 20 tracts where the Atlas estimates both Black and white women | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_cty_nodata | 17 | counties | count of drawn counties with no Opportunity Atlas estimate | counties and county equivalents on the map (Puerto Rico not drawn) | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s |   |   | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_key_saturated | 523 | counties | count of those counties whose value lies outside the range of the key (below its low end or above its high end) and takes the end color | counties drawn with a value on the map | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s |   |   | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_no_adi | 343 | tracts | count of tracts left out of the gradient | tracts with an estimate for all women but no ADI rank or no recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_oa_tracts | 73,278 | tracts | count of tracts in the file | 2010 census tracts in the staged Opportunity Atlas file | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s |   |   | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_pairs_asian | 7,064 | tracts | count of tracts | non-Hispanic Asian women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_pairs_black | 20,884 | tracts | count of tracts | non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_pairs_hisp | 22,695 | tracts | count of tracts | Hispanic women of any race and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_pooled_est | 71,646 | tracts | count of tracts with a published value | 2010 census tracts in the staged Opportunity Atlas file with an estimate for all women | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s |   |   | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_pov | 71,295 | tracts | count of tracts in the sensitivity check | 2010 census tracts with an Atlas estimate for all women, an ADI rank, a recorded 2010 population and a 1990 poverty rate | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| n_tracts | 71,303 | tracts | count of tracts | 2010 census tracts with an Atlas estimate for all women, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   |   | none (full count) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| noise_share | 10% | percent of an estimate's standard error | size of the privacy noise added to each estimate, as the Atlas codebook states it (typically less than this share of the standard error) | Opportunity Atlas tract estimates | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s |   |   | none (documentation) | Opportunity Atlas | Stated in the Atlas documentation, not computed in this build. |
| pct_bw | 89.6% | percent of tracts in which the group's predicted share is higher than white women's | share of tracts (each tract counted once) where the group's predicted share exceeds white women's, county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 88.9% to 90.2% | 20,884 tracts | none (each tract counts once) | Opportunity Atlas | Noise in the tract estimates pulls this share toward an even split. |
| pct_hw | 79.1% | percent of tracts in which the group's predicted share is higher than white women's | share of tracts (each tract counted once) where the group's predicted share exceeds white women's, county-bootstrap interval | Hispanic women of any race and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 77.9% to 80.2% | 22,695 tracts | none (each tract counts once) | Opportunity Atlas | Noise in the tract estimates pulls this share toward an even split. |
| pct_pos_f1 | 94.6% | percent of counties | share of counties in which the county mean predicted share is higher for Black than for white women | counties with at least one tract where the Atlas estimates both Black and white women | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   | 1,318 counties | none (each county counts once) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| pct_wa | 23.9% | percent of tracts in which the group's predicted share is higher than white women's | share of tracts (each tract counted once) where the group's predicted share exceeds white women's, county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Asian women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas estimates both, with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 21.6% to 26.0% | 7,064 tracts | none (each tract counts once) | Opportunity Atlas | Noise in the tract estimates pulls this share toward an even split. |
| pf_2000 | 2,000 | residents | minimum 2010 population of a tract (a rule) | 2010 census tracts in the comparison of Black and white women | 2010 census |   |   | none (inclusion rule) | USDA Food Access Research Atlas |   |
| pf_4000 | 4,000 | residents | minimum 2010 population of a tract (a rule) | 2010 census tracts in the comparison of Black and white women | 2010 census |   |   | none (inclusion rule) | USDA Food Access Research Atlas |   |
| pf_6000 | 6,000 | residents | minimum 2010 population of a tract (a rule) | 2010 census tracts in the comparison of Black and white women | 2010 census |   |   | none (inclusion rule) | USDA Food Access Research Atlas |   |
| pop_pairs_asian | 37.9 million | people | sum of 2010 census tract population | residents of the tracts in the comparison with non-Hispanic Asian women | 2010 census |   |   | none (full count) | USDA Food Access Research Atlas |   |
| pop_pairs_black | 99.6 million | people | sum of 2010 census tract population | residents of the tracts in the comparison with non-Hispanic Black women | 2010 census |   |   | none (full count) | USDA Food Access Research Atlas |   |
| pop_pairs_hisp | 114.3 million | people | sum of 2010 census tract population | residents of the tracts in the comparison with Hispanic women of any race | 2010 census |   |   | none (full count) | USDA Food Access Research Atlas |   |
| pop_tracts_share | 99.0% | percent of the 2010 U.S. population | 2010 population of the tracts with an estimate for all women and an ADI rank, as a share of the U.S. population | residents of the United States | 2010 census |   |   | none (full count) | USDA Food Access Research Atlas |   |
| ratio_bw_d1 | 2.5 | ratio of the group's predicted share to white women's | ratio of population-weighted mean predicted shares (group over white women), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the least deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 2.3 to 2.9 | 696 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| ratio_bw_d10 | 1.5 | ratio of the group's predicted share to white women's | ratio of population-weighted mean predicted shares (group over white women), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the most deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 1.5 to 1.6 | 3,152 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| ratio_hw_d1 | 2.1 | ratio of the group's predicted share to white women's | ratio of population-weighted mean predicted shares (group over white women), county-bootstrap interval | Hispanic women of any race and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the least deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 2.0 to 2.3 | 3,010 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| ratio_hw_d10 | 1.3 | ratio of the group's predicted share to white women's | ratio of population-weighted mean predicted shares (group over white women), county-bootstrap interval | Hispanic women of any race and non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the most deprived tenth of the tracts where the Atlas estimates both | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 1.3 to 1.4 | 1,253 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| region_midwest | 29.5% | percent of women with a teen birth | predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over counties (2010 census population as the weight), bootstrap interval over states | women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in counties of the Census Bureau's Midwest region | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s | 95% CI 26.3% to 31.5% | 1,052 counties | 2010 census county population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| region_northeast | 21.7% | percent of women with a teen birth | predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over counties (2010 census population as the weight), bootstrap interval over states | women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in counties of the Census Bureau's Northeast region | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s | 95% CI 19.7% to 23.0% | 217 counties | 2010 census county population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| region_south | 33.5% | percent of women with a teen birth | predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over counties (2010 census population as the weight), bootstrap interval over states | women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in counties of the Census Bureau's South region | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s | 95% CI 31.4% to 35.6% | 1,419 counties | 2010 census county population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| region_west | 25.0% | percent of women with a teen birth | predicted share of women with a teen birth, population-weighted mean over counties (2010 census population as the weight), bootstrap interval over states | women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in counties of the Census Bureau's West region | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s | 95% CI 23.5% to 29.2% | 437 counties | 2010 census county population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| rise_adi_common | 25.6 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, most minus least deprived tenth | mean in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus mean in the least deprived tenth, tenths of the ADI national rank formed among these tracts, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with a 1990 poverty rate | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 24.3 to 26.9 | 71,295 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| rise_asian | 15.8 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, most minus least deprived tenth | mean in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus mean in the least deprived tenth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Asian women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 11.3 to 20.1 | 7,718 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| rise_black | 18.1 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, most minus least deprived tenth | mean in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus mean in the least deprived tenth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Black women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 16.9 to 19.9 | 25,216 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| rise_diff_asian | 9.8 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, rise for all women minus rise for non-Hispanic Asian women | rise from the least to the most deprived tenth of tracts for all women, minus the same rise for the group (each in its own tracts), same county draws | tracts with an Atlas estimate for all women and, separately, for non-Hispanic Asian women, each with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 5.4 to 14.4 | 71,303 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| rise_diff_black | 7.5 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, rise for all women minus rise for non-Hispanic Black women | rise from the least to the most deprived tenth of tracts for all women, minus the same rise for the group (each in its own tracts), same county draws | tracts with an Atlas estimate for all women and, separately, for non-Hispanic Black women, each with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 6.0 to 8.9 | 71,303 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| rise_diff_hisp | 5.3 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, rise for all women minus rise for Hispanic women of any race | rise from the least to the most deprived tenth of tracts for all women, minus the same rise for the group (each in its own tracts), same county draws | tracts with an Atlas estimate for all women and, separately, for Hispanic women of any race, each with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 3.7 to 7.1 | 71,303 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| rise_diff_white | 3.9 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, rise for all women minus rise for non-Hispanic white women | rise from the least to the most deprived tenth of tracts for all women, minus the same rise for the group (each in its own tracts), same county draws | tracts with an Atlas estimate for all women and, separately, for non-Hispanic white women, each with an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 2.3 to 5.2 | 71,303 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| rise_hisp | 20.3 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, most minus least deprived tenth | mean in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus mean in the least deprived tenth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | Hispanic women of any race raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 18.1 to 22.2 | 25,785 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| rise_pooled | 25.6 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, most minus least deprived tenth | mean in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus mean in the least deprived tenth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 24.3 to 26.9 | 71,303 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| rise_pov1990 | 24.1 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, most minus least deprived tenth | mean in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus mean in the least deprived tenth, tenths of the 1990 tract poverty rate formed among these tracts, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with a 1990 poverty rate | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 22.7 to 25.5 | 71,295 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| rise_pov_diff | −1.5 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, rise by tenths of 1990 poverty minus rise by tenths of the ADI | rise across tenths of the 1990 tract poverty rate minus rise across tenths of the ADI rank, on the same tracts, county-bootstrap interval from the same draws | all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with a 1990 poverty rate | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI −2.8 to −0.2 | 71,295 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| rise_white | 21.7 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, most minus least deprived tenth | mean in the most deprived tenth of tracts minus mean in the least deprived tenth, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 20.7 to 22.8 | 64,974 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| share_single | 56.4% | percent of tracts | share of 2010 tracts that overlap exactly one 2020 tract, where the crosswalk gives the ADI rank without averaging | all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 |   | 71,303 tracts | none (each tract counts once) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| slope_adi10 | 2.5 | percentage points of women with a teen birth per ten points of ADI national rank | population-weighted slope of the predicted teen birth share on the ADI national rank, times ten, county-bootstrap interval | all women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts with an Atlas estimate for them, an ADI rank and a recorded 2010 population | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 2.4 to 2.7 | 71,303 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| slope_cty | 0.85 | percentage points of Black women's share per point of white women's share | slope of the county mean Black share on the county mean white share, weighted by 2010 population summed to the county, bootstrap interval over states | non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in counties with at least 20 tracts where the Atlas estimates both | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 0.70 to 1.00 | 261 counties | 2010 census population summed to the county | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| slope_tract | 0.41 | percentage points of Black women's share per point of white women's share | slope of the tract's Black share on its white share over these tracts, population-weighted, county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the tracts of the counties with at least 20 tracts where the Atlas estimates both | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 0.35 to 0.46 | 15,239 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| slope_within | 0.26 | percentage points of Black women's share per point of white women's share | slope of the tract's Black share on its white share after subtracting each county's population-weighted mean from both (differences between counties removed), population-weighted, county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic Black and white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in the tracts of the counties with at least 20 tracts where the Atlas estimates both | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 0.23 to 0.29 | 15,239 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| south_all_share | 45% | percent of counties | share of those counties that are in the South region | counties in the states and DC with an estimate | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s |   | 3,125 counties | none (each county counts once) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| south_minus_mw | 4.0 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, South minus Midwest | South region mean minus Midwest region mean of the predicted share, bootstrap interval over states from the same draws | women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in the states and the District of Columbia | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s | 95% CI 1.2 to 7.6 | 3,125 counties | 2010 census county population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| south_minus_ne | 11.8 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, South minus Northeast | South region mean minus Northeast region mean of the predicted share, bootstrap interval over states from the same draws | women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in the states and the District of Columbia | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s | 95% CI 9.3 to 14.6 | 3,125 counties | 2010 census county population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| south_minus_w | 8.5 | percentage points of women with a teen birth, South minus West | South region mean minus West region mean of the predicted share, bootstrap interval over states from the same draws | women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, by county of childhood, in the states and the District of Columbia | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s | 95% CI 4.1 to 11.1 | 3,125 counties | 2010 census county population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| south_top_share | 93% | percent of counties | share of those counties that are in the South region | counties in the highest tenth of county values (states and DC) | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s |   | 313 counties | none (each county counts once) | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| white_bw | 23.3% | percent of women with a teen birth | predicted share, population-weighted mean over tracts (2010 tract population as the weight), county-bootstrap interval | non-Hispanic white women raised by parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, in tracts where the Atlas also estimates non-Hispanic Black women | women born 1978 to 1983, who had teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s; deprivation rank from the American Community Survey, 2019 to 2023 | 95% CI 22.6% to 24.0% | 20,884 tracts | 2010 census tract population | Opportunity Atlas |   |
| wonder_low | 15 | years of age | lower age limit of the teen band in the WONDER natality tables used in the chapter on recent births | births in CDC WONDER natality tables for the youngest mother-age band that most counties publish | 2018 to 2024 |   |   | none (definition) | CDC WONDER natality |   |

## Definitions

- Census tract: A small area drawn by the Census Bureau to stand in for a neighborhood. Boundaries are redrawn after each decennial census.
- Modeled estimate: A figure produced by a statistical model instead of a direct count or measurement, usually for small areas where direct data are thin, borrowing strength from surveys, neighboring areas or other data. Neighboring areas can share errors, so single extremes call for caution.
- Bootstrap interval: A range for an estimate found by recomputing it on many random resamples of the data and reading the range from the results. It shows how much the estimate would vary from sample to sample.
- Area Deprivation Index (ADI): A score that ranks neighborhoods by income, education, employment and housing conditions drawn from the American Community Survey. In this book a higher national percentile means a more deprived neighborhood.
- Ecological inference: Drawing conclusions about individuals from data about places or groups. A pattern across counties need not hold for the people inside them.

## Methods

The teen birth measure is the Opportunity Atlas's predicted share of women who ever claimed, as a dependent, a child born when they were between the ages of 13 and 19, for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution, so it is a model prediction that describes teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s. Neighborhoods are ranked by the Area Deprivation Index for 2019 to 2023, decades after the births. Tracts are weighted by their 2010 census population because the Atlas has no counts of women, and the Atlas adds privacy noise to every estimate.

### What the teen birth measure is and which tracts it covers

The teen birth measure is the Opportunity Atlas's predicted share of women who ever claimed, as a dependent, a child born when they were between the ages of 13 and 19, for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution (Atlas codebook for Table 4, variable teenbrth).

The staged tract file has one value for all women and one for each of white, Black, Hispanic and Asian women, on native 2010 tracts (73,278 tracts in the file). The Atlas adds privacy noise to every estimate and the values are never clipped. A tract enters a comparison when the estimates exist, its 2010 population is positive and it has a deprivation rank.

Explains Table 2, Table 3 and Table 4.

### How deprivation and its tenths are defined

Deprivation is the Area Deprivation Index national rank, a block-group index (ACS 2019 to 2023) whose 2020-tract value is the unweighted mean of its block groups' ranks; a 2010 tract takes the land-area-weighted mean of the values of the 2020 tracts that overlap it, when those with a rank cover at least half of its land area.

Tenths are tenths of all 71,642 tracts in the file with a rank and a positive population (near-equal numbers; tied ranks stay together), whether or not they have an Atlas estimate, so a tenth means the same part of the scale for every group. A sensitivity check ranks tracts by the 1990 census poverty rate in the Opportunity Atlas tract covariates file (a raw file read once in the build) in place of the ADI.

Explains Table 2, Table 3 and Table 5.

### How tracts are weighted and which tracts each comparison uses

Each tract is weighted by its 2010 census population, read from the USDA Food Access Research Atlas file (the Atlas has no counts of women); counting each tract once gives similar results.

Sentences about comparisons between groups use the tracts where both groups are estimated.

Explains Table 2, Table 3, Table 4 and Table 5.

### How the county comparisons, regions and map are built

In the county version of the comparison a county enters when at least 20 of its tracts have both estimates, and the floors on tracts per county (1, 5, 10, 20 and 50) and on tract population (2,000, 4,000 and 6,000 residents) are tried in the last figure.

Regions are the Census Bureau's four regions. The county map uses the Atlas's own county estimates for all women.

Explains Table 6, Table 7 and Table 1.

### How uncertainty is measured

Intervals are 95% percentile intervals from 2,000 draws of whole counties with replacement (seed 12345), computed by one routine for means, shares, slopes, correlations and differences; quantities built from county means, and the regional means and differences, resample states.

### Four rankings of the same places

The comparison follows the book's ranking switch rule, fixed on October 28, 2026 before any of these gradients was computed. The main gradient of the chapter is recomputed under four rankings of the same places, with the outcome, period, weights, bins and intervals unchanged: the published ADI; a standardized index that applies the ADI's coefficients to its measures after standardizing each one across tracts; median household income; and the share of adults 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more. The three alternatives come from ACS tract estimates for 2019 to 2023, the period of the ADI.

All four rankings use the same places, the 66,005 tracts that have the outcome and all four rankings, so the ADI panel can differ slightly from the chapter's main figure. Tracts enter only if they have every input of the standardized index, which leaves out tracts without a median rent, home value or mortgage cost. Each 2010 tract takes the land-area-weighted mean of each ranking over the common-sample 2020 tracts that overlap it, when they cover at least half of its land area, the chapter's construction of its ADI, and tenths are tenths of the 2010 tracts with all four rankings and a positive population.

A pattern counts as changed when the worse end switches sides, when the two ends differ under one ranking and not the other, or when the rank correlation of bin order and bin mean falls on the other side of 0.9 and moves by at least 0.1.

Explains Table 8.

## What these data cannot show

The shares are model predictions for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile. They describe teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s among women from low-income families and say nothing about women from richer families or about teenagers now. A birth counts only when the mother claimed the child as a dependent. The gradient is a pattern across tracts, an ecological pattern, and it does not say that living in a deprived tract raised any woman's chance of a teen birth. The ADI describes the tracts decades after the births, and the staged files hold no deprivation measure from the childhood years.

A same-tract comparison removes differences between neighborhoods but not all differences. Within a tract, women raised at one parental income percentile can still differ in family wealth, in schools, in the block they lived on and in how institutions treated them, and the data describe the gap without explaining it. The staged file has no standard errors and no counts of women, so tracts are weighted by their total 2010 population, which may put the levels too low. The tracts with both estimates are those with enough women of both groups. Asian estimates are low and noisy, and 20% of them are below zero.

Whether a teen birth changes a woman's later income is a separate question that this chapter does not test. Kearney and Levine reviewed state and international comparisons. They argue that early births mostly mark limited economic prospects for disadvantaged girls and carry little direct economic cost, which is a reading of patterns across places.[5] Puerto Rico has Atlas estimates but is not drawn on the map. Connecticut appears under its legacy county codes in the Atlas, and it takes its ADI rank from the 2020 planning-region tracts through the crosswalk.

## References

1. Chetty, Raj; Friedman, John N.; Hendren, Nathaniel; Jones, Maggie R.; Porter, Sonya R. (2018). The Opportunity Atlas: Mapping the Childhood Roots of Social Mobility. NBER Working Paper 25147. https://doi.org/10.3386/w25147
2. Chetty, Raj; Hendren, Nathaniel; Jones, Maggie R.; Porter, Sonya R. (2020). Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 135(2): 711-783. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz042
3. Kind, Amy J. H.; Buckingham, William R. (2018). Making Neighborhood-Disadvantage Metrics Accessible: The Neighborhood Atlas. New England Journal of Medicine 378(26): 2456-2458. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMp1802313
4. Lindo, Jason M.; Packham, Analisa (2017). How Much Can Expanding Access to Long-Acting Reversible Contraceptives Reduce Teen Birth Rates?. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 9(3): 348-376. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20160039
5. Kearney, Melissa S.; Levine, Phillip B. (2012). Why Is the Teen Birth Rate in the United States So High and Why Does It Matter?. Journal of Economic Perspectives 26(2): 141-163. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.26.2.141

## Provenance

- Pipeline version: 0.1.0
- Build script: book2/chapters/teen-births/build.py (sha256 4b90bc9f7e275ccdb11c1c2b5a1cc0008e14bac5341973cb7f15bf02d3da4d7b)
- Built on: 2026-10-09
- Site commit: c2b1ff3309cb4a10833f884da91ac0057a66ad0a

Inputs:

| File | Size (bytes) | SHA-256, first 1 MB | SHA-256, last 1 MB |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- |
| book2/chapters/teen-births/counties.py | 5,643 | a2a44c720be89f3468ab2764f7aa5d2e93c0e20f5029d463200d98560ceb5fe4 | a2a44c720be89f3468ab2764f7aa5d2e93c0e20f5029d463200d98560ceb5fe4 |
| book2/chapters/teen-births/tracts.py | 18,878 | 1b0162cdc75c20811103c3d872ca7851bd485bcc7d170e8ff3a503ab06b4ab61 | 1b0162cdc75c20811103c3d872ca7851bd485bcc7d170e8ff3a503ab06b4ab61 |
| data/analytic/tract_atlas.parquet | 39,659,925 | 29d5e4d943552d54aeb6ba92aadc939d9bd15bdea553c78357dbd516757be627 | 1e10d1ecf722340f23ee2212d4999a90250f85b65fa89b39e32db06d9472e22e |
| data/raw/acs/deprivation_components_2019_2023/tract.parquet | 13,197,793 | 5545cde2cbe96a8b56e468d65388248a241aa6bd300d3c9e325d08d3f86b11da | 5c8ec454d066988b0f1a01aaa6ed34ebfc05d162e01cf9c6bb01f9198cbaff12 |
| data/raw/opportunity_atlus/tract_covariates.csv | 24,907,347 | ed9f5cff16e2fa96cf7cf8c775094b21fa83c5e87ffca5be740889f946096fa9 | 09330f908e2e484b1b85b060727015d0a1106721479ab42dcba9a899c6d5d09f |
| data/staged/adi/adi_atlas_tract2020_2023.parquet | 798,078 | 5e409bc212ff871def780fa27b4cf8b616d9da420b2b9f6455517eddcd8c1a95 | 5e409bc212ff871def780fa27b4cf8b616d9da420b2b9f6455517eddcd8c1a95 |
| data/staged/crosswalks/tract_2010_to_2020.parquet | 2,602,636 | f7526f0d1bac31dbc540f6d733a850c9e0ee4c7622011214c04afedfbfa1e0a5 | 9e573492f9804b571b9944a53cc59fadab4051a175952b058f77cc5a644a98ff |
| data/staged/food_access/food_access_tract2010_2019.parquet | 37,967,838 | c36929f1809e9ac84ac5f1cb62140bd980c315287833c6f281839df4c1619c89 | 05a17b940a79393b0c2ce5c9e9248496c319cba6896b63af3a2df34fe04f63aa |
| data/staged/mobility/oa_module1_tract2010.parquet | 14,946,600 | 32583830e03567b41ad3c245ca41aa67fb9cb55a8a46e8d9ae4c77a6cc2fcd83 | 6d67fac56edd8f07346375fb0b97e3c82621d57457d89c7fe93ec6f1b758bfaf |
| data/staged/mobility/oa_outcomes_county.parquet | 721,343 | fd7bc55294fbd3f7a646f27083500c1f12415775db7a3607878b522d277f8140 | fd7bc55294fbd3f7a646f27083500c1f12415775db7a3607878b522d277f8140 |
| data/staged/ses/acs5_tract2020_2019_2023.parquet | 7,232,424 | 5fe6f730a35225f14d5d8abfc6b9bce58b52e545f309a7eac74f1dae74d7a31c | 7b4a2475b3852d3f91804716a04566ef8ceadacec2be9fb85f5eb642078efac6 |
| data/staged/svi/svi_tract2020_2022.parquet | 17,740,415 | cb3860d8edc2aaf1f2a02211a58f7a0b80457eb6ad9a37b5ec8abb2d5da9da10 | e371a4a696d5bed05d54ad7c5b6ca2504508805b847ec415c2322be7f66ec2b2 |

Outputs:

| File | SHA-256 |
| --- | --- |
| facts.json | 58432d8c5da5f66f3d277a165542e5ff751f6f1d34af62ba767f6d81a2d88c12 |
| figures/alt_rankings.json | 0a0cf476dc955f9ffece13e9d3fd238082a9c44fd2ec2d441ba0800c394cd651 |
| figures/teen_birth_black_white_by_deprivation.json | cc14ff3eda9ca3896dabeff6196305c7367d7cd52e95a33adf5578784a1c602e |
| figures/teen_birth_black_white_counties.json | dad8a08d472017e2bdf630d5e7e1df916ac7f00133bea348a0b3e4823af649c1 |
| figures/teen_birth_by_deprivation_tracts.json | bc9c3f68f15ce4f0a78770d0e8cf7d9f94ca648adbe42d20fe9bb7fbae6cdd78 |
| figures/teen_birth_county_map.json | e3b79939cdaa42e21e1f220cd8b9949f6b90116bf32ffa28740e0d966dae3d90 |
| figures/teen_birth_gap_floors.json | f431cb59d60f3ea65c610f5e18f5c4fc6b0fdd49ce65b78c9b236c20b12cbc69 |
| figures/teen_birth_gaps_same_tract.json | 9d50658745f83b0a647efbf230b0d6583c021beab92086152bf2b5b2acddec2b |
| figures/teen_birth_gradient_by_group.json | e3cbc028fa34fcb169d79f9824bcc81d831db883d748b648dfc29d8d6258a1c0 |
| meta.json | 1a45292e0de3e82d05872635eeb2ec211e77263df31f9f32fb0bb0b714542ce4 |
| public/data/teen-births/teen_birth_county_map.json | a50245ff82371abb91f6a498d0b4a9d1403b32bef5228ef8df574877d62e049a |
| public/data/teen-births/teen_birth_tract_cloud.json | cc639216a549ddec6809920c8490706e0505af9035c417a267ee22d861618a73 |
| refs.json | be60b432fb8b51ac3013c21518fb5e3d84fb7f21f7310e5f143e425c5808412d |

## Machine formats

- Report (HTML): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/teen-births/report
- Report (Markdown): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/teen-births/report.md
- Every estimate (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/facts.json
- Table 1, figure "teen_birth_county_map" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_county_map.json
- Table 2, figure "teen_birth_by_deprivation_tracts" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_by_deprivation_tracts.json
- Table 3, figure "teen_birth_gradient_by_group" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_gradient_by_group.json
- Table 4, figure "teen_birth_gaps_same_tract" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_gaps_same_tract.json
- Table 5, figure "teen_birth_black_white_by_deprivation" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_black_white_by_deprivation.json
- Table 6, figure "teen_birth_black_white_counties" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_black_white_counties.json
- Table 7, figure "teen_birth_gap_floors" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/teen_birth_gap_floors.json
- Table 8, figure "alt_rankings" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/teen-births/figures/alt_rankings.json
- Payload of "teen_birth_county_map" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/data/teen-births/teen_birth_county_map.json
- Payload of "teen_birth_by_deprivation_tracts" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/data/teen-births/teen_birth_tract_cloud.json
- Index of every report: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/llms.txt; all reports in one file: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/llms-full.txt