{
  "alt": "Dot plot of the Black-white gap in predicted teen birth shares under nine floors. Five rows raise the minimum number of tracts per county and four raise the minimum population of a tract. Every interval lies above zero and the dots are close together.",
  "caption": "All nine intervals lie above zero and the dots lie close together, so the gap does not close under any floor. The upper five rows raise the minimum number of tracts with both estimates that a county needs; the lower four raise the minimum 2010 population of a tract.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 18.98,
      "conf_low": 16.54,
      "estimate": 17.59,
      "floor": "Every county with a tract pair",
      "kind": "Minimum tracts per county",
      "n": 1318
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.98,
      "conf_low": 16.66,
      "estimate": 17.74,
      "floor": "Counties with at least 5 tracts",
      "kind": "Minimum tracts per county",
      "n": 719
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 19.2,
      "conf_low": 16.7,
      "estimate": 17.86,
      "floor": "Counties with at least 10 tracts",
      "kind": "Minimum tracts per county",
      "n": 453
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 19.59,
      "conf_low": 16.84,
      "estimate": 18.06,
      "floor": "Counties with at least 20 tracts",
      "kind": "Minimum tracts per county",
      "n": 261
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 19.67,
      "conf_low": 16.96,
      "estimate": 18.14,
      "floor": "Counties with at least 50 tracts",
      "kind": "Minimum tracts per county",
      "n": 102
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.19,
      "conf_low": 17.01,
      "estimate": 17.59,
      "floor": "Every tract",
      "kind": "Minimum residents per tract",
      "n": 20884
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.18,
      "conf_low": 17.03,
      "estimate": 17.57,
      "floor": "Tracts with at least 2,000 residents",
      "kind": "Minimum residents per tract",
      "n": 19836
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.94,
      "conf_low": 16.69,
      "estimate": 17.27,
      "floor": "Tracts with at least 4,000 residents",
      "kind": "Minimum residents per tract",
      "n": 12788
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.21,
      "conf_low": 15.78,
      "estimate": 16.5,
      "floor": "Tracts with at least 6,000 residents",
      "kind": "Minimum residents per tract",
      "n": 4790
    }
  ],
  "id": "teen_birth_gap_floors",
  "notes": [
    "County rows weight each tract by its 2010 population within the county and each county by its summed population, with intervals from a bootstrap over states. Tract rows weight each tract by its 2010 population, with intervals from a bootstrap over counties. The number of counties or tracts is in each row's tooltip. Shares are the Atlas's predicted share of women with a teen birth, a child born when the mother was between the ages of {fact:age_low} and {fact:age_high} whom she claimed as a dependent, for women born in 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile. White, Black and Asian women are non-Hispanic and Hispanic women may be of any race. The Atlas adds noise to its estimates to protect privacy and the staged values are never clipped, so a few fall below 0 or above 100."
  ],
  "source": "Opportunity Atlas tract outcomes, 2010 tracts, 1978-1983 birth cohorts, and Area Deprivation Index, 2023 release (ACS 2019-2023); population-weighted (2010 tract population), modeled estimates",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "Minimum residents per tract": "cat2",
      "Minimum tracts per county": "cat1"
    },
    "group": "kind",
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "legend": true,
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "sort": "data",
    "valueLabels": true,
    "x": "estimate",
    "xDomain": [
      10,
      25
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "xLabel": "Black women's predicted share minus white women's (percentage points)",
    "y": "floor"
  },
  "subtitle": "Mean predicted share of women with a teen birth for Black women minus white women raised in the same places, percentage points, by floor, women born 1978 to 1983 whose parents were at the 25th income percentile (teen births in the 1990s and early 2000s, not a current rate)",
  "title": "The Black-white gap in predicted teen birth shares has an interval above zero under all nine floors on tracts per county and on tract population",
  "type": "dot",
  "width": "body"
}