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ZIP Code Destiny

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    Chapter 5.2 · The deed and the ledger · Report

    Home value, income and redlining

    Across census tracts, each counted once, life expectancy at birth for deaths in 2010 to 2015 is 2.2 years higher for each doubling of the median home value for 2019 to 2023.

    Every estimate of the chapter with its interval and every figure as a table, generated from the chapter's data files. Table n of this report is figure n of the chapter. The same report as Markdown: report.md.

    Identification

    Title
    Home value, income and redlining
    Label
    The deed and the ledger
    Chapter
    5.2 (Part V, Home, work and money; An American life)
    Question
    How much longer do people live where homes are worth more, and how do the 1930s redlining grades line up with outcomes today?
    Dek
    Across census tracts, each counted once, life expectancy at birth for deaths in 2010 to 2015 is 2.2 years higher for each doubling of the median home value for 2019 to 2023.
    Grain
    neighborhoods
    Status
    published
    Published
    Updated
    Data sources
    • USALEEP life expectancy. Life expectancy at birth by tract, deaths in 2010 to 2015, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts; years: 2010-2015; weights: ACS 2019-2023 tract population; each tract once for the unweighted slope
    • American Community Survey. ACS 2019 to 2023: median home value by tract, tract population, homeownership, household income and renter households; years: 2019-2023 (5-year); weights: 2019-2023 tract population
    • Census TIGER/Line tracts. Census 2020 county file: the core-based statistical area code of each county (CBSAFP), which assigns tracts to metros; years: 2020; weights: none (assignment of counties to metros)
    • IRS Statistics of Income. IRS Statistics of Income county file, tax year 2022: returns, returns claiming the earned income tax credit and returns by adjusted gross income bracket; years: tax year 2022; weights: none (full counts of returns)
    • Area Deprivation Index. Area Deprivation Index 2023, national rank, tracts averaged to counties; years: 2023 release (version 4.0.1; built on ACS 2019-2023); weights: ACS 2019-2023 tract population
    • Opportunity Atlas. Adult household income rank of children born 1978 to 1983 to parents at the 25th income percentile, county and 2020-tract files; years: 1978-1983 birth cohorts (2018 release); weights: county population; tract population
    • Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps). Mapping Inequality HOLC residential security maps, 1935 to 1940, graded polygons overlaid on 2020 tracts; years: 1930s-1940s maps (2023 digitization); weights: ACS 2019-2023 tract population
    Canonical URL
    https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/home-value-income-and-redlining
    Markdown
    https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/home-value-income-and-redlining/report.md
    BibTeX
    @misc{singh2026homevalueincomeandredlining,
      author = {Singh, Vishal},
      title = {Home value, income and redlining},
      year = {2026},
      url = {https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/home-value-income-and-redlining},
      note = {In ZIP Code Destiny. Published 9 October 2026; updated 28 October 2026.}
    }

    Principal estimates

    The facts the dek and the opening prose cite, in order of appearance. Every fact is in the table of all estimates below.

    EstimandPopulationPeriodValueIntervalnWeightsSourceFact id
    slope of tract life expectancy on log2 tract median home value, each tract counted once, county-cluster bootstrap intervalnon-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)2.295% CI 2.1 to 2.376,702 tractsnone (each tract counts once)USALEEP life expectancyprice_doubling_yrs
    count of tracts in the regressionnon-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)76,702none (full count)USALEEP life expectancyprice_n_tracts

    Findings

    Life expectancy at birth is 2.2 (95% CI 2.1 to 2.3)2.2 years of life expectancy at birth per doubling of median home valueEstimandslope of tract life expectancy on log2 tract median home value, each tract counted once, county-cluster bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 2.1 to 2.3n76,702 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationnon-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC)Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteTract life expectancy is paired with the tract's own ACS 2019-2023 median home value (top-coded at $2,000,001). Connecticut's nine planning regions stand in for its counties. Interval: bootstrap over counties. years higher for each doubling of the median home value across 76,70276,702 tractsEstimandcount of tracts in the regressionWeightsnone (full count)Populationnon-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC)Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy census tracts when each tract counts once. Life expectancy is the USALEEPUSALEEPThe U.S. Small-area Life Expectancy Estimates Project, a National Center for Health Statistics release of life expectancy at birth for most census tracts. It covers deaths from 2010 to 2015 only and has not been updated. estimate for deaths in 2010 to 2015, and each tract's median home value is from the American Community Survey for 2019 to 2023. The slope describes places. It does not say that a household that moved to a costlier area would live longer.

    The chapter then turns to two other records that follow the address. One is the share of tax returns that claim the earned income tax creditEITCThe Earned Income Tax Credit, a refundable federal tax credit for low and moderate income workers. It grows with earnings up to a limit and then phases out. or report a high income. The other is the set of gradesHOLC gradeA letter from A to D that the Home Owners' Loan Corporation gave neighborhoods on its 1930s maps, with A labeled best and D hazardous. The maps are known as redlining maps. that the Home Owners' Loan Corporation gave neighborhoods in the 1930s. Every comparison is between places (census tracts and counties), and none describes individual households. Eviction filings and the housing cost burden of renters are in Chapter 5.4, Renting, affordability and eviction.

    Home values rise with life expectancy

    Each census tract is paired with its own median home value, with institutional tracts such as prisons and nursing facilities left out. An earlier version of this chapter compared ZIP code areas and used a ZIP-level median home value of unstated, older vintage, which it labeled as the 2019 to 2023 survey. This version uses the tract values from that survey. Across the tracts, life expectancy has a correlation of +0.59 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.61)+0.59 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation of tract life expectancy with log2 tract median home value, county-cluster bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 0.56 to 0.61n76,702 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationnon-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC)Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteTract life expectancy is paired with the tract's own ACS 2019-2023 median home value (top-coded at $2,000,001). Connecticut's nine planning regions stand in for its counties. Interval: bootstrap over counties. with the logarithm of the home value and +0.50 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.52)+0.50 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation of tract life expectancy with the tract median home value in dollars (not logged), each tract counted once, county-cluster bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 0.48 to 0.52n76,702 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationnon-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC)Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy with the home value in dollars. It moves more closely with the logarithm, so the slope is stated per doubling of the home value. When tracts count in proportion to their population, the slope is 2.2 (95% CI 2.1 to 2.3)2.2 years of life expectancy at birth per doubling of median home valueEstimandslope of tract life expectancy on log2 tract median home value, weighted by tract population, county-cluster bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 2.1 to 2.3n76,702 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationnon-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC)Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancyNoteTract life expectancy is paired with the tract's own ACS 2019-2023 median home value (top-coded at $2,000,001). Connecticut's nine planning regions stand in for its counties. Interval: bootstrap over counties. years per doubling, nearly the same.

    Ranking tracts by home value and averaging life expectancy within twentieths of the tracts, weighted by population, gives 73.5 (95% CI 73.1 to 73.9)73.5 years of life expectancy at birthEstimandpopulation-weighted mean of tract life expectancy in a twentieth of tracts ranked by median home value (equal numbers of tracts), county-cluster bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 73.1 to 73.9n3,835 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts in the lowest twentieth of tracts by median home valuePerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy years in the lowest twentieth and 82.8 (95% CI 82.5 to 83.2)82.8 years of life expectancy at birthEstimandpopulation-weighted mean of tract life expectancy in a twentieth of tracts ranked by median home value (equal numbers of tracts), county-cluster bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 82.5 to 83.2n3,836 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts in the highest twentieth of tracts by median home valuePerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy years in the highest. The difference is 9.3 (95% CI 8.8 to 9.8)9.3 years of life expectancy at birth, highest minus lowest twentiethEstimanddifference between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of the highest and the lowest twentieth of tracts by median home value, county-cluster bootstrap intervalInterval95% CI 8.8 to 9.8n7,671 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts in the highest and the lowest twentieth of tracts by median home valuePerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy years. Economists call the price of a bundled feature a hedonic price. The price of a house is the sum of what buyers pay for each part of the address, such as bedrooms, schools and the commute.[1] Life expectancy is not a feature that a buyer can see or purchase, so the slope is not a price that anyone pays. It records that homes cost more where the people nearby live longer, and the data do not separate what an area provides from who can afford to buy there.

    Inverting the slope within a metro gives a local exchange rate. Each tract counts in the metro of its county, and the sample has 3939 metrosEstimandcount of metros with the minimum number of tracts and residents and a positive slopeWeightsnone (full count)Populationcore-based statistical areas with a tract in the canonical tract sample (929 areas)Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy metros with at least 250250 tractsEstimandminimum number of tracts in the sample for a metro to enterWeightsnone (inclusion rule)Populationmetros in the price-of-a-year comparisonPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy tracts and 1.5 million1.5 million residentsEstimandminimum population of the metro's tracts in the sample for a metro to enterWeightsnone (inclusion rule)Populationmetros in the price-of-a-year comparisonPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy residents. In each, the median home value of its tracts is divided by the within-metro slope of life expectancy on the logarithm of home value. The result is the housing dollars that separate a pair of tracts one year of life apart near the metro median.

    A year costs $33 thousand (95% CI $30 thousand to $38 thousand)$33 thousand thousands of dollars of median home value per year of life expectancyEstimandmedian of the metro's tract median home values divided by the slope of tract life expectancy on the natural log of home value across the metro's tracts (each tract once), interval from a bootstrap over tracts within the metroInterval95% CI $30 thousand to $38 thousandn514 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationtracts of the metro in the canonical tract sample (each tract takes the core-based statistical area of its county), Cincinnati metroPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy in Cincinnati, the metro with the lowest point estimate, and $658 thousand (95% CI $482 thousand to $947 thousand)$658 thousand thousands of dollars of median home value per year of life expectancyEstimandmedian of the metro's tract median home values divided by the slope of tract life expectancy on the natural log of home value across the metro's tracts (each tract once), interval from a bootstrap over tracts within the metroInterval95% CI $482 thousand to $947 thousandn400 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationtracts of the metro in the canonical tract sample (each tract takes the core-based statistical area of its county), San Jose metroPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy in the San Jose metro, the highest (Table 1). The ratio between those two estimates is 19.6 (95% CI 14.1 to 28.7)19.6 ratio of dollars per year of lifeEstimanddollars per year of life at the highest point estimate among the metros divided by that at the lowest point estimate; the interval comes from paired bootstrap replicates that hold those metros fixed, so it understates how far apart the extremes of 39 noisy estimates areInterval95% CI 14.1 to 28.7Weightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationthe metros with the highest and the lowest point estimates of dollars per year of life among the 39 metros that pass the size rulePerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy. That ratio compares the extremes of 3939 metrosEstimandcount of metros with the minimum number of tracts and residents and a positive slopeWeightsnone (full count)Populationcore-based statistical areas with a tract in the canonical tract sample (929 areas)Perioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy noisy estimates, and its interval holds those metros fixed, so it understates how far apart the extremes are.

    The point estimate is above $100 thousand$100 thousand thousands of dollars of median home value per year of lifeEstimandthreshold that defines a six-figure year of lifeWeightsnone (definition)Populationmetros in the price-of-a-year comparisonPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy in 1616 metrosEstimandcount of metros where the point estimate of dollars per year of life exceeds the threshold (the interval of some of them includes the threshold)Weightsnone (full count)Populationmetros in the price-of-a-year comparisonPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy metros, every California metro in the comparison among them, and the intervals for Sacramento, Portland and Las Vegas include that amount. Detroit has the largest within-metro correlation between life expectancy and the logarithm of home value, +0.78 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.80)+0.78 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation of tract life expectancy with the natural log of median home value within the metro, bootstrap interval over tractsInterval95% CI 0.75 to 0.80n1,214 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationtracts of the metro in the canonical tract sample (each tract takes the core-based statistical area of its county), Detroit metroPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy, and a year costs $44 thousand (95% CI $42 thousand to $47 thousand)$44 thousand thousands of dollars of median home value per year of life expectancyEstimandmedian of the metro's tract median home values divided by the slope of tract life expectancy on the natural log of home value across the metro's tracts (each tract once), interval from a bootstrap over tracts within the metroInterval95% CI $42 thousand to $47 thousandn1,214 tractsWeightsnone (each tract counts once)Populationtracts of the metro in the canonical tract sample (each tract takes the core-based statistical area of its county), Detroit metroPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy there. The interval for Cleveland, the next largest, overlaps Detroit's, so the order is by point estimate.

    The exchange rate follows the price level more than the strength of the link. Across the metros, dollars per year of life correlate +0.89 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.96)+0.89 correlation coefficientEstimandcorrelation across metros of dollars per year of life with the metro's median tract home value, bootstrap interval over metrosInterval95% CI 0.82 to 0.96n39 metrosWeightsnone (each metro counts once)Populationmetros in the price-of-a-year comparisonPerioddeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)SourceUSALEEP life expectancy with the metro's median tract home value, so a year is cheap where homes are cheap and dear where homes are dear. Part of that correlation is built in, because dollars per year is the median home value divided by the slope. The figures say more about what housing costs than about how steeply longevity rises with value. Read them as orders of magnitude, because the tracts of one metro resemble one another and the interval for a single metro is narrower than the uncertainty.

    Income brackets change shape with deprivation

    Whether a household can buy where homes are dear depends on its income. The income tax returns filed in a county describe the incomes of everyone who files there, and they do not identify who bought a home. A median summarizes a distribution of incomes with one number, and the returns describe it by bracket. The comparison covers 3,1293,129 counties and Connecticut planning regionsEstimandcount of counties in the gradientWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties (Connecticut's planning regions stand in for its counties) in the IRS Statistics of Income county file with returns and an Area Deprivation IndexPeriodtax year 2022SourceIRS Statistics of Income counties, with Connecticut's planning regions standing in for its counties, ranked by the Area Deprivation IndexArea Deprivation Index (ADI)A score that ranks neighborhoods by income, education, employment and housing conditions drawn from the American Community Survey. In this book a higher national percentile means a more deprived neighborhood.. Tenths hold equal numbers of counties, not equal numbers of people. The least deprived tenth holds 130.1 million130.1 million peopleEstimandsum of the ACS 2019-2023 tract population over the counties of the tenthn312 countiesWeightsnone (full count)Populationresidents of counties in the least deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation IndexPeriodACS 2019-2023SourceAmerican Community Survey people and the most deprived tenth 3.8 million3.8 million peopleEstimandsum of the ACS 2019-2023 tract population over the counties of the tenthn312 countiesWeightsnone (full count)Populationresidents of counties in the most deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation IndexPeriodACS 2019-2023SourceAmerican Community Survey.

    The share of individual income tax returns for tax year 2022 that claim the earned income tax credit rises from 12.0% (95% CI 10.4% to 13.2%)12.0% percent of individual returns that claim the earned income tax creditEstimandcounty-population-weighted mean of the county share of returns, interval from a bootstrap over statesInterval95% CI 10.4% to 13.2%n312 countiesWeightscounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)Populationreturns in the least deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation Index (tenths hold equal numbers of counties)Periodtax year 2022SourceIRS Statistics of Income in the least deprived tenth of counties to 28.9% (95% CI 26.4% to 31.2%)28.9% percent of individual returns that claim the earned income tax creditEstimandcounty-population-weighted mean of the county share of returns, interval from a bootstrap over statesInterval95% CI 26.4% to 31.2%n312 countiesWeightscounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)Populationreturns in the most deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation Index (tenths hold equal numbers of counties)Periodtax year 2022SourceIRS Statistics of Income in the most deprived tenth (Table 2). The share of returns with an adjusted gross income of $200,000$200,000 dollars of adjusted gross incomeEstimandlower limit of the top adjusted-gross-income bracket (agi_stub 8) of the IRS county fileWeightsnone (definition)Populationindividual income tax returnsPeriodtax year 2022SourceIRS Statistics of Income or more falls from 11.1% (95% CI 10.3% to 11.9%)11.1% percent of individual returns that report adjusted gross income of $200,000 or moreEstimandcounty-population-weighted mean of the county share of returns, interval from a bootstrap over statesInterval95% CI 10.3% to 11.9%n312 countiesWeightscounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)Populationreturns in the least deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation Index (tenths hold equal numbers of counties)Periodtax year 2022SourceIRS Statistics of Income to 1.9% (95% CI 1.7% to 2.1%)1.9% percent of individual returns that report adjusted gross income of $200,000 or moreEstimandcounty-population-weighted mean of the county share of returns, interval from a bootstrap over statesInterval95% CI 1.7% to 2.1%n312 countiesWeightscounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)Populationreturns in the most deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation Index (tenths hold equal numbers of counties)Periodtax year 2022SourceIRS Statistics of Income.

    Nationally, 14.9%14.9% percent of individual returns that claim the earned income tax creditEstimandreturns claiming the credit divided by all returns, all counties pooledn158,707,990 returnsWeightsnone (full count of returns)Populationall individual income tax returns in the IRS county filePeriodtax year 2022SourceIRS Statistics of Income of returns claim the credit and 7.8%7.8% percent of individual returns that report adjusted gross income of $200,000 or moreEstimandreturns in the top bracket divided by all returns, all counties pooledn158,707,990 returnsWeightsnone (full count of returns)Populationall individual income tax returns in the IRS county filePeriodtax year 2022SourceIRS Statistics of Income are in the top bracket. Across counties weighted by population, the EITC share correlates +0.57 (95% CI 0.43 to 0.72)+0.57 correlation coefficientEstimandcounty-population-weighted correlation of the county EITC share with the Area Deprivation Index national rank, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI 0.43 to 0.72n3,129 countiesWeightscounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)Populationcounties in the gradientPeriodtax year 2022; Area Deprivation Index 2023SourceIRS Statistics of Income with deprivation and the top-bracket share correlates −0.74 (95% CI −0.82 to −0.69)−0.74 correlation coefficientEstimandcounty-population-weighted correlation of the county top-bracket share with the Area Deprivation Index national rank, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −0.82 to −0.69n3,129 countiesWeightscounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)Populationcounties in the gradientPeriodtax year 2022; Area Deprivation Index 2023SourceIRS Statistics of Income. The ranking and the shares overlap in what they measure, because the Area Deprivation Index is built partly from income and poverty, so some of the gradient is built in.

    The brackets change shape across the range and not only in their average. In the least deprived fifth of counties, 26.7%26.7% percent of returns with adjusted gross income under $25,000Estimandshare of all returns in the counties of the group (pooled, so weighted by returns)n625 countiesWeightsnone (full count of returns)Populationreturns in the least deprived fifth of counties (fifths of counties by Area Deprivation Index hold equal numbers of counties)Periodtax year 2022SourceIRS Statistics of Income of returns report an adjusted gross income under $25,000$25,000 dollars of adjusted gross incomeEstimandupper limit of the lowest of the five income groups shown (returns with adjusted gross income under this amount; agi_stub 1 to 3)Weightsnone (definition)Populationindividual income tax returnsPeriodtax year 2022SourceIRS Statistics of Income and 10.0%10.0% percent of returns with adjusted gross income $200,000 or moreEstimandshare of all returns in the counties of the group (pooled, so weighted by returns)n625 countiesWeightsnone (full count of returns)Populationreturns in the least deprived fifth of counties (fifths of counties by Area Deprivation Index hold equal numbers of counties)Periodtax year 2022SourceIRS Statistics of Income report $200,000$200,000 dollars of adjusted gross incomeEstimandlower limit of the top adjusted-gross-income bracket (agi_stub 8) of the IRS county fileWeightsnone (definition)Populationindividual income tax returnsPeriodtax year 2022SourceIRS Statistics of Income or more. In the most deprived fifth the shares are 37.6%37.6% percent of returns with adjusted gross income under $25,000Estimandshare of all returns in the counties of the group (pooled, so weighted by returns)n624 countiesWeightsnone (full count of returns)Populationreturns in the most deprived fifth of counties (fifths of counties by Area Deprivation Index hold equal numbers of counties)Periodtax year 2022SourceIRS Statistics of Income and 2.3%2.3% percent of returns with adjusted gross income $200,000 or moreEstimandshare of all returns in the counties of the group (pooled, so weighted by returns)n624 countiesWeightsnone (full count of returns)Populationreturns in the most deprived fifth of counties (fifths of counties by Area Deprivation Index hold equal numbers of counties)Periodtax year 2022SourceIRS Statistics of Income. The lowest income group is the largest of the five groups in every fifth of counties, and the data do not say who is in it.

    Both shares exceed the national shares in only 1515 countiesEstimandcount of counties whose EITC share and top-bracket share both exceed the national sharesn447 countiesWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties with at least 150,000 residents (ACS 2019-2023 tract population)Periodtax year 2022SourceIRS Statistics of Income of the 447447 countiesEstimandcount of counties with at least the minimum populationWeightsnone (full count)Populationcounties with returns and an Area Deprivation IndexPeriodtax year 2022SourceIRS Statistics of Income counties that have at least 150,000150,000 residentsEstimandminimum county population for the comparison with the national sharesWeightsnone (inclusion rule)Populationcounties compared with the national sharesPeriodtax year 2022SourceIRS Statistics of Income residents, among them Fulton County and DeKalb County in Georgia and Essex County in New Jersey. In most of the other large counties one tail is heavier than the nation's and the other lighter.

    The shares also line up with the mobility of children from low-income families, measured by the income rankIncome rank (kfr)The position that adult children reach in the national distribution of household income, from the lowest rank to the highest, averaged over children who grew up in a place with parents at a stated income level. The Opportunity Atlas labels this measure kfr. that Chapter 4.3, Race, income and mobility defines. In a county-population-weighted regression of standardized variables, the top-bracket share alone has a coefficient of 0.41 (95% CI 0.33 to 0.50)0.41 standard deviations of the county mobility rank per standard deviation of the top-bracket shareEstimandstandardized coefficient on the top-bracket share alone; coefficient in a county-population-weighted regression of standardized variables, errors clustered on stateInterval95% CI 0.33 to 0.50n3,116 countiesWeightscounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)Populationcounties with an income-tax shape, an Area Deprivation Index and an Opportunity Atlas rank (Connecticut left out)Periodtax year 2022; mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceIRS Statistics of Income. With both shares and the deprivation index in the model, the coefficient on the top-bracket share is −0.03 (95% CI −0.27 to 0.20)−0.03 standard deviations of the county mobility rank per standard deviation of the top-bracket shareEstimandstandardized coefficient on the top-bracket share with the other share and the Area Deprivation Index in the model; coefficient in a county-population-weighted regression of standardized variables, errors clustered on stateInterval95% CI −0.27 to 0.20n3,116 countiesWeightscounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)Populationcounties with an income-tax shape, an Area Deprivation Index and an Opportunity Atlas rank (Connecticut left out)Periodtax year 2022; mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceIRS Statistics of Income, an interval that includes zero. The coefficient on the EITC share is −0.49 (95% CI −0.75 to −0.23)−0.49 standard deviations of the county mobility rank per standard deviation of the EITC shareEstimandstandardized coefficient on the EITC share with the other share and the Area Deprivation Index in the model; coefficient in a county-population-weighted regression of standardized variables, errors clustered on stateInterval95% CI −0.75 to −0.23n3,116 countiesWeightscounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)Populationcounties with an income-tax shape, an Area Deprivation Index and an Opportunity Atlas rank (Connecticut left out)Periodtax year 2022; mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceIRS Statistics of Income, which stays away from zero. The two shares correlate −0.65 (95% CI −0.70 to −0.60)−0.65 correlation coefficientEstimandcounty-population-weighted correlation of the county EITC share with the county top-bracket share, bootstrap interval over statesInterval95% CI −0.70 to −0.60n3,129 countiesWeightscounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)Populationcounties in the gradientPeriodtax year 2022SourceIRS Statistics of Income across counties, so the regression cannot split their common signal cleanly. All of this is association across counties.

    Grades drawn in the 1930s and neighborhoods today

    Between 1935 and 1940 the Home Owners' Loan Corporation drew residential security maps for cities across the country and graded neighborhoods from A, labeled best, to D, labeled hazardous.[2] The area descriptions that came with the maps show that the race and national origin of residents were among the factors in a grade, next to the housing stock and incomes.[3] The maps have long been out of use, and the grades still line up with today's neighborhoods.

    Overlaying the graded polygons on 2020 census tracts gives 10,95210,952 tractsEstimandcount of tracts in the comparisonWeightsnone (full count)Population2020 census tracts with a population and at least half of their area under graded HOLC polygonsPeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) tracts in 222222 HOLC cities and city areasEstimandcount of distinct (city, state) names of the HOLC polygon covering the largest part of a tractWeightsnone (full count)Populationtracts in the comparisonPeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) HOLC cities and city areas where graded polygons cover at least 50%50% percent of a tract's areaEstimandminimum share of a tract covered by graded polygons for the tract to enterWeightsnone (inclusion rule)Populationtracts in the comparisonPeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) of the tract. Each tract takes the grade that covers most of its area.

    Life expectancy at birth, for deaths in 2010 to 2015, averages 80.9 (95% CI 80.1 to 81.6)80.9 years of life expectancy at birthEstimandpopulation-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 80.1 to 81.6n629 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded APeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) years in grade A tracts and 76.8 (95% CI 75.5 to 77.8)76.8 years of life expectancy at birthEstimandpopulation-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 75.5 to 77.8n2,671 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded DPeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) years in grade D tracts, a gap of 4.1 (95% CI 3.3 to 5.1)4.1 years of life expectancy at birth, grade A minus grade DEstimanddifference between the population-weighted mean over grade A tracts and over grade D tracts, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 3.3 to 5.1n3,300 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygonsPeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) years with tracts counted in proportion to their population (Table 3). The gap is 3.6 (95% CI 2.6 to 4.9)3.6 years of life expectancy at birth, grade A minus grade DEstimanddifference between the population-weighted mean over grade A tracts and over grade D tracts under the stricter coverage rule, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 2.6 to 4.9n1,864 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts at least 90 percent covered by graded HOLC polygonsPeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) years when graded polygons must cover at least 90%90% percent of a tract's areaEstimandstricter minimum share of a tract covered by graded polygonsWeightsnone (inclusion rule)Populationtracts in the stricter comparisonPeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) of a tract, so it moves with the matching rule and stays positive.

    Grade A tracts are in cities whose graded tracts have a lower average life expectancy than the cities of grade D tracts. Comparing tracts within the same city, with a separate baseline for each city (fixed effectsFixed effectsA regression adjustment that gives each group, such as each county, its own baseline. The estimate then rests on differences within groups.), widens the gap to 5.8 (95% CI 5.3 to 6.4)5.8 years of life expectancy at birth, grade A minus grade D, within the same cityEstimandcoefficient of grade D relative to grade A (sign reversed) in a population-weighted regression of tract life expectancy on grade with a separate baseline for each city, errors clustered on countyInterval95% CI 5.3 to 6.4n10,143 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons and a life expectancy, in 222 HOLC citiesPeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) years.

    Other measures step in the same direction. The adult income rank of children from low-income families averages 46.3 (95% CI 45.3 to 47.1)46.3 percentile points of national household income rankEstimandmean adult household income rank (Opportunity Atlas, children born 1978 to 1983 to parents at the 25th income percentile), population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 45.3 to 47.1n672 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded A and have an adult income rank of children from low-income familiesPeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) in grade A tracts and 37.9 (95% CI 36.3 to 39.2)37.9 percentile points of national household income rankEstimandmean adult household income rank (Opportunity Atlas, children born 1978 to 1983 to parents at the 25th income percentile), population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 36.3 to 39.2n2,974 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded D and have an adult income rank of children from low-income familiesPeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) in grade D tracts, in percentile points of the national household income distribution. The rank is from the Opportunity Atlas and describes children born in 1978 to 1983.

    Homeownership is 67.8% (95% CI 65.0% to 70.6%)67.8% percent of householdsEstimandACS 2019-2023 homeownership rate, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 65.0% to 70.6%n672 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded A and have a homeownership ratePeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) of households in grade A tracts and 35.3% (95% CI 31.7% to 39.7%)35.3% percent of householdsEstimandACS 2019-2023 homeownership rate, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 31.7% to 39.7%n2,973 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded D and have a homeownership ratePeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) in grade D tracts. The mean of tract median household incomes is $127 thousand (95% CI $115 thousand to $138 thousand)$127 thousand thousands of dollarsEstimandACS 2019-2023 tract median household income, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over counties; a mean of tract medians, not a median of householdsInterval95% CI $115 thousand to $138 thousandn669 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded A and have a median household incomePeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) and $71 thousand (95% CI $63 thousand to $78 thousand)$71 thousand thousands of dollarsEstimandACS 2019-2023 tract median household income, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over counties; a mean of tract medians, not a median of householdsInterval95% CI $63 thousand to $78 thousandn2,920 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded D and have a median household incomePeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) in the two grades. These comparisons describe neighborhoods today, and the two grades differ in housing, income and population from before the maps were drawn.

    The Area Deprivation Index is close to the same value in grade B, C and D tracts (4141 national percentile (100 = most deprived)EstimandArea Deprivation Index 2023 national rank, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 33 to 49n2,241 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded B and have an Area Deprivation Index valuePeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps), 4242 national percentile (100 = most deprived)EstimandArea Deprivation Index 2023 national rank, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 33 to 53n5,040 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded C and have an Area Deprivation Index valuePeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) and 4141 national percentile (100 = most deprived)EstimandArea Deprivation Index 2023 national rank, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over countiesInterval95% CI 32 to 53n2,953 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded D and have an Area Deprivation Index valuePeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps)) while life expectancy falls from grade B to grade D. Several of the census measures behind the index are home values, rents and mortgage payments, so places with high housing costs read as less deprived (Chapter 1.1, What the deprivation index measures). These data do not test whether that explains the flat pattern.

    The grades shift the middle of the distribution and do not sort tracts into separate groups. In 75%75% percent of random pairsEstimandprobability that the grade A tract of a random pair has the higher life expectancyn3,300 tractsWeightsACS 2019-2023 tract populationPopulationpairs of one grade A tract and one grade D tract with a life expectancy, each drawn in proportion to its populationPeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) of random pairs of one grade A tract and one grade D tract, drawn in proportion to population, the grade A tract has the higher life expectancy. In the remaining pairs the grade D tract does. The interquartile rangesInterquartile rangeThe distance between the first quartile and the third quartile of a set of values. It describes the spread of the middle of a distribution and is not moved by extreme values. of neighboring grades overlap, and so do those of grades A and D.

    Within cities the gap has the same sign wherever it can be measured. Among the 2727 HOLC cities and city areasEstimandcount of cities in the city-by-city comparisonWeightsnone (full count)PopulationHOLC cities with enough grade A and grade D tractsPeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) cities with at least 55 tractsEstimandminimum number of grade A tracts with a life expectancy for a city to enterWeightsnone (inclusion rule)PopulationHOLC cities in the city-by-city comparisonPeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) grade A and 1010 tractsEstimandminimum number of grade D tracts with a life expectancy for a city to enterWeightsnone (inclusion rule)PopulationHOLC cities in the city-by-city comparisonPeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) grade D tracts that have a life expectancy, the gap is positive in every one. Its median is 5.75.7 years of life expectancy at birth, grade A minus grade DEstimandmedian over cities of the city's gap between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of its grade A tracts and of its grade D tractsn27 citiesWeightsnone (each city counts once)PopulationHOLC cities in the city-by-city comparisonPeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) years, and it ranges from 3.43.4 years of life expectancy at birth, grade A minus grade DEstimand5th percentile over cities of the city's gap between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of its grade A tracts and of its grade D tractsn27 citiesWeightsnone (each city counts once)PopulationHOLC cities in the city-by-city comparisonPeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) to 10.110.1 years of life expectancy at birth, grade A minus grade DEstimand95th percentile over cities of the city's gap between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of its grade A tracts and of its grade D tractsn27 citiesWeightsnone (each city counts once)PopulationHOLC cities in the city-by-city comparisonPeriodmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983SourceMapping Inequality (HOLC maps) years between the 5th and 95th percentiles of cities. A city's grade A mean rests on few tracts, so single cities are noisy.

    What these data cannot show

    Every comparison in this chapter describes places. A county or a tract is not a person, and a pattern across places need not hold for the people inside them (ecological inferenceEcological inferenceDrawing conclusions about individuals from data about places or groups. A pattern across counties need not hold for the people inside them.). The residents of a tract differ from movers in income, health and age, and the data cannot separate selection from what an area provides.

    The price of a year joins life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015 to home values for 2019 to 2023, so the two describe different years. The life expectancy estimates are modeled for small areas and area-weighted from 2010 to 2020 tracts. A tract median home value rests on few homes and the tract file carries no margins of error, so part of the spread across tracts is sampling error. The dollar figures divide a price level by a slope that is itself estimated with error.

    The IRS file covers people who file a return, so the shares are shares of returns and leave out people who do not file. The EITC share depends on eligibility and on whether eligible households claim the credit, and the top-bracket share is a share of returns, not of people. Connecticut is absent from the mobility regressions because its planning-region codes do not match the Atlas's counties.

    The grades followed the neighborhoods' housing, incomes and populations in the 1930s, so the staircase today combines what the neighborhoods were with what happened after. The boundary study in the box above finds that the maps themselves mattered for housing outcomes and segregation next to borders, and it does not show that the grades explain today's differences in life expectancy. Tracts are matched to grades by area, and the Atlas ranks are interpolated by area from 2010 tracts. The maps cover the cities that HOLC surveyed, so a city that is absent was not surveyed, which does not mean it had no redlining.

    Tables

    Table 1. Life expectancy is 2.2 years higher for each doubling of tract home value, and a year of life costs $33 thousand in housing dollars in Cincinnati and $658 thousand in San Jose

    Life expectancy at birth (deaths in 2010 to 2015) against median home value (ACS 2019 to 2023) across census tracts, and the housing dollars per year of life in each large metro

    Table 1.1. Census tracts

    Life expectancy is higher in tracts with higher home values, a correlation of +0.59 with the log of home value

    Life expectancy at birth in years against median home value in dollars on a log scale, one dot per census tract (random sample), with population-weighted means for twentieths of tracts

    No inline rows: the values of Table 1.1 are in /data/home-value-income-and-redlining/home_value_scatter.json.

    Table 1.2. Dollars per year of life

    A year of life costs between $33 thousand and $658 thousand in housing dollars at the lowest and highest point estimates among large metros, a ratio of 19.6

    Median tract home value divided by the within-metro slope of life expectancy on the log of home value, thousands of dollars per year of life, metros with enough tracts

    conf_highconf_lowcorrelationdollars_kmetron
    37.5530.320.71333.50Cincinnati514
    39.5832.990.76636.05Cleveland581
    41.5632.150.70036.46Indianapolis451
    41.4434.140.74337.60Columbus, OH466
    44.8636.610.67440.32Pittsburgh672
    46.8038.910.75942.56St. Louis663
    47.9239.110.75543.39Kansas City552
    50.6338.750.76144Jacksonville318
    47.1042.070.77844.42Detroit1,214
    57.6640.140.65347.65Virginia Beach-Norfolk428
    60.1551.650.74355.92Baltimore660
    64.5151.840.67357.89Charlotte594
    62.4754.770.60858.45Chicago2,159
    68.5052.920.61059.66San Antonio451
    64.0856.520.69559.96Philadelphia1,438
    71.9553.880.50461.95Minneapolis-St. Paul845
    73.1162.190.61767.43Atlanta1,336
    82.1256.150.52167.66Providence354
    77.7164.760.54570.50Houston1,382
    88.0362.900.53073.22Nashville383
    87.2973.010.61579.85Dallas-Fort Worth1,449
    97.3371.400.49183.40Tampa682
    131.276.660.41698.47Orlando449
    118.588.090.547101.6Sacramento515
    126.788.370.464105.1Portland, OR533
    142.3102.50.495119.7Phoenix932
    168.694.070.400125.9Las Vegas467
    148.0115.00.391130.2Miami1,347
    172.8112.90.492137.8Riverside-San Bernardino929
    167.8116.50.446139.9Denver623
    165.8121.60.605140.4Seattle823
    176.6134.10.383153.6Washington, D.C.1,324
    190.0148.70.461166.4Boston1,032
    213.3142.10.405171.8Austin432
    242.4205.20.449222.4Los Angeles2,829
    279.9186.00.450227.5San Diego667
    274.3227.10.556247.9San Francisco-Oakland1,024
    357.7275.30.288311.1New York4,281
    947.0481.60.322657.8San Jose400

    Note: The sample is 76,702 census tracts that have a life expectancy estimate and a median home value, with institutional tracts such as prisons and nursing facilities left out. Each tract carries its own ACS median home value, which the Census Bureau top-codes at about two million dollars. An earlier version of this figure used ZIP code areas and a ZIP-level home value of unstated, older vintage.

    Note: The dots are drawn at random from the tracts inside the plotted range with seed 12345. Every estimate in the chapter uses all tracts.

    Note: Twentieths hold equal numbers of tracts. Intervals on the markers resample whole counties; intervals in the second tab resample the tracts of one metro and treat them as independent, so they are narrower than they should be. Each tract takes the metro of its county, and a metro enters with at least 250 tracts and 1.5 million residents in the sample.

    Note: Life expectancy is the estimate for deaths in 2010 to 2015 and home values are for 2019 to 2023, so the two describe different years.

    Source: USALEEP life expectancy 2010-2015 (non-institutional tracts, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts) and ACS 2019-2023 tract median home value; population-weighted twentieths, unweighted fitted line, modeled estimates

    Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/home-value-income-and-redlining/figures/home_value_vs_le.json

    Table 2. The share of tax returns that claim the EITC rises from 12.0% to 28.9% across tenths of counties by deprivation, while the share with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more falls from 11.1% to 1.9%

    Shares of individual income tax returns by tenth of counties on the Area Deprivation Index, and the distribution of returns across five income groups by fifth of counties, tax year 2022

    Table 2.1. By deprivation tenth

    Across tenths of counties, the EITC share rises with deprivation and the top-bracket share falls

    Percent of individual income tax returns, county-population-weighted mean, tax year 2022, by tenth of counties on the Area Deprivation Index (1 = least deprived)

    conf_highconf_lowcountiesdecileseriesshare
    13.1910.393121Returns claiming the EITC12.03
    16.0712.763132Returns claiming the EITC14.75
    17.6614.053133Returns claiming the EITC15.93
    18.4015.683134Returns claiming the EITC17.01
    20.1016.713135Returns claiming the EITC18.34
    22.5617.613136Returns claiming the EITC20.18
    21.2317.573137Returns claiming the EITC19.32
    26.2418.633158Returns claiming the EITC22.40
    26.0921.033129Returns claiming the EITC23.69
    31.1626.4131210Returns claiming the EITC28.93
    11.8710.343121Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more11.06
    8.086.733132Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more7.46
    6.315.303133Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more5.91
    5.244.553134Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more4.88
    4.383.663135Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more4.06
    3.693.203136Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more3.43
    3.202.803137Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more3
    2.942.503158Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more2.69
    2.642.243129Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more2.43
    2.131.7331210Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more1.92

    Table 2.2. Shape of the brackets

    The lowest income group makes up a larger share of returns and the highest group a smaller share toward the most deprived fifth of counties

    Share of individual income tax returns by adjusted-gross-income group, percent, returns pooled over the counties in each fifth by Area Deprivation Index, tax year 2022

    bracketcountiesplacereturnsshare
    Under $25,0003,143United States15870799028.63
    $25,000 to $49,9993,143United States15870799022.94
    $50,000 to $99,9993,143United States15870799024.39
    $100,000 to $199,9993,143United States15870799016.26
    $200,000 or more3,143United States1587079907.78
    Under $25,000625Least deprived fifth of counties9510734026.66
    $25,000 to $49,999625Least deprived fifth of counties9510734021.38
    $50,000 to $99,999625Least deprived fifth of counties9510734024.31
    $100,000 to $199,999625Least deprived fifth of counties9510734017.69
    $200,000 or more625Least deprived fifth of counties951073409.97
    Under $25,000626Second fifth3498679029.81
    $25,000 to $49,999626Second fifth3498679024.65
    $50,000 to $99,999626Second fifth3498679024.85
    $100,000 to $199,999626Second fifth3498679015.22
    $200,000 or more626Second fifth349867905.46
    Under $25,000626Middle fifth1606492032.58
    $25,000 to $49,999626Middle fifth1606492025.65
    $50,000 to $99,999626Middle fifth1606492024.40
    $100,000 to $199,999626Middle fifth1606492013.55
    $200,000 or more626Middle fifth160649203.81
    Under $25,000628Fourth fifth872730034.25
    $25,000 to $49,999628Fourth fifth872730026.38
    $50,000 to $99,999628Fourth fifth872730024.25
    $100,000 to $199,999628Fourth fifth872730012.25
    $200,000 or more628Fourth fifth87273002.87
    Under $25,000624Most deprived fifth of counties381192037.64
    $25,000 to $49,999624Most deprived fifth of counties381192026.99
    $50,000 to $99,999624Most deprived fifth of counties381192022.54
    $100,000 to $199,999624Most deprived fifth of counties381192010.58
    $200,000 or more624Most deprived fifth of counties38119202.25

    Note: Tenths and fifths hold equal numbers of counties, not equal numbers of people, so the most deprived tenth holds far fewer returns than the least deprived. The Area Deprivation Index is built from income, poverty, education and housing measures, so a gradient of income-based shares against it is partly built in.

    Note: The IRS file covers people who file a return. The EITC share is the share of returns that claim the credit, which depends on eligibility and on filing, and the top-bracket share is the share of returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more. Both are counts of returns with no sampling error; the intervals in the first tab come from differences between states.

    Note: 14.9% of all returns claim the EITC and 7.8% are in the top bracket. Counties with no Area Deprivation Index are left out; Puerto Rico is not in the file.

    Source: IRS Statistics of Income county file, tax year 2022, and Area Deprivation Index 2023; population-weighted county means, full counts of returns

    Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/home-value-income-and-redlining/figures/eitc_vs_top_bracket.json

    Table 3. Tracts graded A on the 1930s HOLC maps have a life expectancy of 80.9 years, against 76.8 years in tracts graded D, for deaths in 2010 to 2015

    Tract outcomes by 1930s HOLC grade: means of five measures, the spread of life expectancy, and the gap between grade A and grade D tracts city by city

    Table 3.1. Means by grade

    Life expectancy, adult income rank, homeownership and household income are lower in each step from grade A to grade D

    Population-weighted mean of tract values by HOLC grade, each panel in its own units

    conf_highconf_lowgradelabelmeannoutcome
    81.5780.13AGrade A80.93629Life expectancy at birth (years)
    79.8178.30BGrade B79.102,133Life expectancy at birth (years)
    78.7476.88CGrade C77.954,710Life expectancy at birth (years)
    77.7975.50DGrade D76.842,671Life expectancy at birth (years)
    47.1545.26AGrade A46.26672Adult income rank of children from low-income families (percentile)
    44.1441.99BGrade B43.112,245Adult income rank of children from low-income families (percentile)
    42.5639.57CGrade C41.205,051Adult income rank of children from low-income families (percentile)
    39.1536.27DGrade D37.932,974Adult income rank of children from low-income families (percentile)
    70.5864.96AGrade A67.81672Homeownership rate (% of households)
    56.7048.44BGrade B52.552,246Homeownership rate (% of households)
    47.7539.33CGrade C43.455,052Homeownership rate (% of households)
    39.7331.66DGrade D35.322,973Homeownership rate (% of households)
    138.4114.9AGrade A127.4669Median household income (thousands of dollars)
    96.1982.24BGrade B89.542,236Median household income (thousands of dollars)
    78.9768.80CGrade C74.165,015Median household income (thousands of dollars)
    78.0262.77DGrade D71.122,920Median household income (thousands of dollars)
    38.4325.53AGrade A31.55670Area Deprivation Index (national percentile, 100 = most deprived)
    49.2133.19BGrade B40.782,241Area Deprivation Index (national percentile, 100 = most deprived)
    52.7233.35CGrade C41.775,040Area Deprivation Index (national percentile, 100 = most deprived)
    52.9831.56DGrade D40.642,953Area Deprivation Index (national percentile, 100 = most deprived)

    Table 3.2. Spread of life expectancy

    The distributions of tract life expectancy overlap heavily across grades, and the grade shifts the middle

    Population-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at birth with the interquartile range (the 25th to the 75th percentile of tracts, weighted by tract population) by HOLC grade, deaths in 2010 to 2015

    gradelabelmeannq25q75
    AGrade A80.9362978.6083.60
    BGrade B79.102,13376.3882
    CGrade C77.954,71075.3081.10
    DGrade D76.842,67173.6080.20

    Table 3.3. City by city

    In each of 27 HOLC cities life expectancy is higher in grade A tracts than in grade D tracts, with a median gap of 5.7 years

    Population-weighted mean life expectancy at birth of grade D and grade A tracts in each city with enough tracts, deaths in 2010 to 2015

    cityhi_ahi_dle_ale_dlo_alo_dtracts_atracts_d
    San Diego, CA84.1279.8682.1579.1579.6878.46537
    Houston, TX81.9979.7280.9077.6579.6374.832114
    Wichita, KS78.6673.5776.4572.5474.4671.42519
    Passaic County, NJ83.377981.3977.4279.2075.69519
    Los Angeles, CA84.4479.8783.6279.4682.7579.1048269
    Detroit, MI79.7573.6077.4772.9675.0872.322091
    San Francisco, CA87.2281.5885.4480.9183.5680.26654
    Manhattan, NY87.3182.5186.1881.6584.8780.7713114
    San Antonio, TX80.9075.3679.2174.4177.8973.64522
    Minneapolis, MN83.5478.2681.7176.8579.5675.36815
    Union Co., NJ83.5878.7382.1777.2780.6075.86915
    Essex Co., NJ83.5978.7682.3376.9681.0675.122235
    Fort Worth, TX82.7376.1680.3274.8778.4573.44515
    Philadelphia, PA80.9974.6679.5773.8978.2573.1726127
    Baltimore, MD81.7274.1778.6272.5775.5070.88936
    Miami, FL83.5377.4582.3975.9081.2774.47830
    St. Louis, MO82.0374.8480.3673.7378.7172.651714
    Des Moines, IA80.6474.7179.6972.9878.7071.24712
    Chicago, IL84.6777.1083.3476.4981.9475.8513210
    Columbus, OH8174.4878.8871.7176.4068.861010
    Oakland, CA86.8878.8485.2077.8483.6976.941139
    Cleveland, OH81.6272.5880.1871.7178.7670.892343
    Pittsburgh, PA83.2774.538273.0980.8071.64731
    Milwaukee Co., WI86.0175.8084.6674.7982.7673.77537
    Indianapolis, IN82.3872.3181.2871.3380.1970.37636
    Louisville, KY82.5471.7080.5470.3478.2768.59614
    Nashville, TN83.5471.5182.2070.2280.7969.07620

    Note: A tract enters when graded polygons (A to D) cover at least 50% of its area and takes the grade that covers the most of it. The comparison is descriptive: the grades followed the neighborhoods' housing, incomes and the race and national origin of residents, so differences today do not isolate the effect of the maps.

    Note: The tracts are in 222 HOLC cities and city areas, matched by overlay. With a stricter rule that graded polygons cover at least 90% of a tract the life-expectancy gap between grades A and D is 3.6 years.

    Note: Life expectancy is USALEEP for deaths in 2010 to 2015, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts, with institutional tracts left out. The adult income rank is the Opportunity Atlas rank of children born 1978 to 1983 to parents at the 25th income percentile, interpolated from 2010 to 2020 tracts by area. Tract values are weighted by ACS 2019-2023 population.

    Source: Mapping Inequality HOLC maps (1935-1940) overlaid on 2020 tracts; USALEEP 2010-2015, Opportunity Atlas (1978-1983 birth cohorts), ACS 2019-2023 and ADI 2023; population-weighted, modeled estimates

    Data: vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/home-value-income-and-redlining/figures/holc_grade_outcomes.json

    All estimates

    Every fact in facts.json (70), sorted by id. The same values as JSON: facts.json.

    Fact idValueUnitEstimandPopulationPeriodIntervalnWeightsSourceNote
    barbell_min_pop150,000residentsminimum county population for the comparison with the national sharescounties compared with the national sharestax year 2022none (inclusion rule)IRS Statistics of Income
    beta_eitc−0.49standard deviations of the county mobility rank per standard deviation of the EITC sharestandardized coefficient on the EITC share with the other share and the Area Deprivation Index in the model; coefficient in a county-population-weighted regression of standardized variables, errors clustered on statecounties with an income-tax shape, an Area Deprivation Index and an Opportunity Atlas rank (Connecticut left out)tax year 2022; mobility for children born 1978 to 198395% CI −0.75 to −0.233,116 countiescounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)IRS Statistics of Income
    beta_top−0.03standard deviations of the county mobility rank per standard deviation of the top-bracket sharestandardized coefficient on the top-bracket share with the other share and the Area Deprivation Index in the model; coefficient in a county-population-weighted regression of standardized variables, errors clustered on statecounties with an income-tax shape, an Area Deprivation Index and an Opportunity Atlas rank (Connecticut left out)tax year 2022; mobility for children born 1978 to 198395% CI −0.27 to 0.203,116 countiescounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)IRS Statistics of Income
    bracket_low_line$25,000dollars of adjusted gross incomeupper limit of the lowest of the five income groups shown (returns with adjusted gross income under this amount; agi_stub 1 to 3)individual income tax returnstax year 2022none (definition)IRS Statistics of Income
    eitc_hi28.9%percent of individual returns that claim the earned income tax creditcounty-population-weighted mean of the county share of returns, interval from a bootstrap over statesreturns in the most deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation Index (tenths hold equal numbers of counties)tax year 202295% CI 26.4% to 31.2%312 countiescounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)IRS Statistics of Income
    eitc_lo12.0%percent of individual returns that claim the earned income tax creditcounty-population-weighted mean of the county share of returns, interval from a bootstrap over statesreturns in the least deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation Index (tenths hold equal numbers of counties)tax year 202295% CI 10.4% to 13.2%312 countiescounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)IRS Statistics of Income
    eitc_nat14.9%percent of individual returns that claim the earned income tax creditreturns claiming the credit divided by all returns, all counties pooledall individual income tax returns in the IRS county filetax year 2022158,707,990 returnsnone (full count of returns)IRS Statistics of Income
    eitc_top_r−0.65correlation coefficientcounty-population-weighted correlation of the county EITC share with the county top-bracket share, bootstrap interval over statescounties in the gradienttax year 202295% CI −0.70 to −0.603,129 countiescounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)IRS Statistics of Income
    holc_adi_b41national percentile (100 = most deprived)Area Deprivation Index 2023 national rank, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over countiesresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded B and have an Area Deprivation Index valuemaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 198395% CI 33 to 492,241 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationMapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_adi_c42national percentile (100 = most deprived)Area Deprivation Index 2023 national rank, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over countiesresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded C and have an Area Deprivation Index valuemaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 198395% CI 33 to 535,040 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationMapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_adi_d41national percentile (100 = most deprived)Area Deprivation Index 2023 national rank, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over countiesresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded D and have an Area Deprivation Index valuemaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 198395% CI 32 to 532,953 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationMapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_city_median5.7years of life expectancy at birth, grade A minus grade Dmedian over cities of the city's gap between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of its grade A tracts and of its grade D tractsHOLC cities in the city-by-city comparisonmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 198327 citiesnone (each city counts once)Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_city_n27HOLC cities and city areascount of cities in the city-by-city comparisonHOLC cities with enough grade A and grade D tractsmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983none (full count)Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_city_p53.4years of life expectancy at birth, grade A minus grade D5th percentile over cities of the city's gap between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of its grade A tracts and of its grade D tractsHOLC cities in the city-by-city comparisonmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 198327 citiesnone (each city counts once)Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_city_p9510.1years of life expectancy at birth, grade A minus grade D95th percentile over cities of the city's gap between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of its grade A tracts and of its grade D tractsHOLC cities in the city-by-city comparisonmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 198327 citiesnone (each city counts once)Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_cover_min50%percent of a tract's areaminimum share of a tract covered by graded polygons for the tract to entertracts in the comparisonmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983none (inclusion rule)Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_cover_strict90%percent of a tract's areastricter minimum share of a tract covered by graded polygonstracts in the stricter comparisonmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983none (inclusion rule)Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_inc_a$127 thousandthousands of dollarsACS 2019-2023 tract median household income, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over counties; a mean of tract medians, not a median of householdsresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded A and have a median household incomemaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 198395% CI $115 thousand to $138 thousand669 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationMapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_inc_d$71 thousandthousands of dollarsACS 2019-2023 tract median household income, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over counties; a mean of tract medians, not a median of householdsresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded D and have a median household incomemaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 198395% CI $63 thousand to $78 thousand2,920 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationMapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_kfr_a46.3percentile points of national household income rankmean adult household income rank (Opportunity Atlas, children born 1978 to 1983 to parents at the 25th income percentile), population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over countiesresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded A and have an adult income rank of children from low-income familiesmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 198395% CI 45.3 to 47.1672 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationMapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_kfr_d37.9percentile points of national household income rankmean adult household income rank (Opportunity Atlas, children born 1978 to 1983 to parents at the 25th income percentile), population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over countiesresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded D and have an adult income rank of children from low-income familiesmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 198395% CI 36.3 to 39.22,974 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationMapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_le_a80.9years of life expectancy at birthpopulation-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over countiesresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded Amaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 198395% CI 80.1 to 81.6629 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationMapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_le_d76.8years of life expectancy at birthpopulation-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over countiesresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded Dmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 198395% CI 75.5 to 77.82,671 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationMapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_le_gap4.1years of life expectancy at birth, grade A minus grade Ddifference between the population-weighted mean over grade A tracts and over grade D tracts, bootstrap interval over countiesresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygonsmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 198395% CI 3.3 to 5.13,300 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationMapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_le_gap_903.6years of life expectancy at birth, grade A minus grade Ddifference between the population-weighted mean over grade A tracts and over grade D tracts under the stricter coverage rule, bootstrap interval over countiesresidents of tracts at least 90 percent covered by graded HOLC polygonsmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 198395% CI 2.6 to 4.91,864 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationMapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_le_gap_fe5.8years of life expectancy at birth, grade A minus grade D, within the same citycoefficient of grade D relative to grade A (sign reversed) in a population-weighted regression of tract life expectancy on grade with a separate baseline for each city, errors clustered on countyresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons and a life expectancy, in 222 HOLC citiesmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 198395% CI 5.3 to 6.410,143 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationMapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_min_a5tractsminimum number of grade A tracts with a life expectancy for a city to enterHOLC cities in the city-by-city comparisonmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983none (inclusion rule)Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_min_d10tractsminimum number of grade D tracts with a life expectancy for a city to enterHOLC cities in the city-by-city comparisonmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983none (inclusion rule)Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_n_cities222HOLC cities and city areascount of distinct (city, state) names of the HOLC polygon covering the largest part of a tracttracts in the comparisonmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983none (full count)Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_n_tracts10,952tractscount of tracts in the comparison2020 census tracts with a population and at least half of their area under graded HOLC polygonsmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983none (full count)Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_own_a67.8%percent of householdsACS 2019-2023 homeownership rate, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over countiesresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded A and have a homeownership ratemaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 198395% CI 65.0% to 70.6%672 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationMapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_own_d35.3%percent of householdsACS 2019-2023 homeownership rate, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over countiesresidents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded D and have a homeownership ratemaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 198395% CI 31.7% to 39.7%2,973 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationMapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    holc_pair_share75%percent of random pairsprobability that the grade A tract of a random pair has the higher life expectancypairs of one grade A tract and one grade D tract with a life expectancy, each drawn in proportion to its populationmaps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 19833,300 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationMapping Inequality (HOLC maps)
    n_barbell_pool447countiescount of counties with at least the minimum populationcounties with returns and an Area Deprivation Indextax year 2022none (full count)IRS Statistics of Income
    n_both_tails15countiescount of counties whose EITC share and top-bracket share both exceed the national sharescounties with at least 150,000 residents (ACS 2019-2023 tract population)tax year 2022447 countiesnone (full count)IRS Statistics of Income
    n_counties3,129counties and Connecticut planning regionscount of counties in the gradientcounties (Connecticut's planning regions stand in for its counties) in the IRS Statistics of Income county file with returns and an Area Deprivation Indextax year 2022none (full count)IRS Statistics of Income
    pop_d1130.1 millionpeoplesum of the ACS 2019-2023 tract population over the counties of the tenthresidents of counties in the least deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation IndexACS 2019-2023312 countiesnone (full count)American Community Survey
    pop_d103.8 millionpeoplesum of the ACS 2019-2023 tract population over the counties of the tenthresidents of counties in the most deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation IndexACS 2019-2023312 countiesnone (full count)American Community Survey
    price_cheap_usd$33 thousandthousands of dollars of median home value per year of life expectancymedian of the metro's tract median home values divided by the slope of tract life expectancy on the natural log of home value across the metro's tracts (each tract once), interval from a bootstrap over tracts within the metrotracts of the metro in the canonical tract sample (each tract takes the core-based statistical area of its county), Cincinnati metrodeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)95% CI $30 thousand to $38 thousand514 tractsnone (each tract counts once)USALEEP life expectancy
    price_dear_usd$658 thousandthousands of dollars of median home value per year of life expectancymedian of the metro's tract median home values divided by the slope of tract life expectancy on the natural log of home value across the metro's tracts (each tract once), interval from a bootstrap over tracts within the metrotracts of the metro in the canonical tract sample (each tract takes the core-based statistical area of its county), San Jose metrodeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)95% CI $482 thousand to $947 thousand400 tractsnone (each tract counts once)USALEEP life expectancy
    price_doubling_weighted2.2years of life expectancy at birth per doubling of median home valueslope of tract life expectancy on log2 tract median home value, weighted by tract population, county-cluster bootstrap intervalnon-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)95% CI 2.1 to 2.376,702 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancyTract life expectancy is paired with the tract's own ACS 2019-2023 median home value (top-coded at $2,000,001). Connecticut's nine planning regions stand in for its counties. Interval: bootstrap over counties.
    price_doubling_yrs2.2years of life expectancy at birth per doubling of median home valueslope of tract life expectancy on log2 tract median home value, each tract counted once, county-cluster bootstrap intervalnon-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)95% CI 2.1 to 2.376,702 tractsnone (each tract counts once)USALEEP life expectancyTract life expectancy is paired with the tract's own ACS 2019-2023 median home value (top-coded at $2,000,001). Connecticut's nine planning regions stand in for its counties. Interval: bootstrap over counties.
    price_le_hi82.8years of life expectancy at birthpopulation-weighted mean of tract life expectancy in a twentieth of tracts ranked by median home value (equal numbers of tracts), county-cluster bootstrap intervalresidents of tracts in the highest twentieth of tracts by median home valuedeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)95% CI 82.5 to 83.23,836 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    price_le_lo73.5years of life expectancy at birthpopulation-weighted mean of tract life expectancy in a twentieth of tracts ranked by median home value (equal numbers of tracts), county-cluster bootstrap intervalresidents of tracts in the lowest twentieth of tracts by median home valuedeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)95% CI 73.1 to 73.93,835 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    price_le_span9.3years of life expectancy at birth, highest minus lowest twentiethdifference between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of the highest and the lowest twentieth of tracts by median home value, county-cluster bootstrap intervalresidents of tracts in the highest and the lowest twentieth of tracts by median home valuedeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)95% CI 8.8 to 9.87,671 tractsACS 2019-2023 tract populationUSALEEP life expectancy
    price_maxr_r+0.78correlation coefficientcorrelation of tract life expectancy with the natural log of median home value within the metro, bootstrap interval over tractstracts of the metro in the canonical tract sample (each tract takes the core-based statistical area of its county), Detroit metrodeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)95% CI 0.75 to 0.801,214 tractsnone (each tract counts once)USALEEP life expectancy
    price_maxr_usd$44 thousandthousands of dollars of median home value per year of life expectancymedian of the metro's tract median home values divided by the slope of tract life expectancy on the natural log of home value across the metro's tracts (each tract once), interval from a bootstrap over tracts within the metrotracts of the metro in the canonical tract sample (each tract takes the core-based statistical area of its county), Detroit metrodeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)95% CI $42 thousand to $47 thousand1,214 tractsnone (each tract counts once)USALEEP life expectancy
    price_metro_level_r+0.89correlation coefficientcorrelation across metros of dollars per year of life with the metro's median tract home value, bootstrap interval over metrosmetros in the price-of-a-year comparisondeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)95% CI 0.82 to 0.9639 metrosnone (each metro counts once)USALEEP life expectancy
    price_metro_min_pop1.5 millionresidentsminimum population of the metro's tracts in the sample for a metro to entermetros in the price-of-a-year comparisondeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)none (inclusion rule)USALEEP life expectancy
    price_metro_min_tracts250tractsminimum number of tracts in the sample for a metro to entermetros in the price-of-a-year comparisondeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)none (inclusion rule)USALEEP life expectancy
    price_n_metros39metroscount of metros with the minimum number of tracts and residents and a positive slopecore-based statistical areas with a tract in the canonical tract sample (929 areas)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)none (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    price_n_outside21tractscount of tracts outside the plotted rectangle (life expectancy 60 to 92 years, home value 10 thousand to 2.1 million dollars)non-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)none (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    price_n_sample5,000tractssize of a random sample drawn with a fixed seed for the scatter plotnon-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)76,702 tractsnone (sample size)USALEEP life expectancy
    price_n_six_figure16metroscount of metros where the point estimate of dollars per year of life exceeds the threshold (the interval of some of them includes the threshold)metros in the price-of-a-year comparisondeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)none (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    price_n_tracts76,702tractscount of tracts in the regressionnon-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)none (full count)USALEEP life expectancy
    price_r+0.59correlation coefficientcorrelation of tract life expectancy with log2 tract median home value, county-cluster bootstrap intervalnon-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)95% CI 0.56 to 0.6176,702 tractsnone (each tract counts once)USALEEP life expectancyTract life expectancy is paired with the tract's own ACS 2019-2023 median home value (top-coded at $2,000,001). Connecticut's nine planning regions stand in for its counties. Interval: bootstrap over counties.
    price_r_linear+0.50correlation coefficientcorrelation of tract life expectancy with the tract median home value in dollars (not logged), each tract counted once, county-cluster bootstrap intervalnon-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC)deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)95% CI 0.48 to 0.5276,702 tractsnone (each tract counts once)USALEEP life expectancy
    price_ratio19.6ratio of dollars per year of lifedollars per year of life at the highest point estimate among the metros divided by that at the lowest point estimate; the interval comes from paired bootstrap replicates that hold those metros fixed, so it understates how far apart the extremes of 39 noisy estimates arethe metros with the highest and the lowest point estimates of dollars per year of life among the 39 metros that pass the size ruledeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)95% CI 14.1 to 28.7none (each tract counts once)USALEEP life expectancy
    price_threshold$100 thousandthousands of dollars of median home value per year of lifethreshold that defines a six-figure year of lifemetros in the price-of-a-year comparisondeaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians)none (definition)USALEEP life expectancy
    r_eitc_adi+0.57correlation coefficientcounty-population-weighted correlation of the county EITC share with the Area Deprivation Index national rank, bootstrap interval over statescounties in the gradienttax year 2022; Area Deprivation Index 202395% CI 0.43 to 0.723,129 countiescounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)IRS Statistics of Income
    r_top_adi−0.74correlation coefficientcounty-population-weighted correlation of the county top-bracket share with the Area Deprivation Index national rank, bootstrap interval over statescounties in the gradienttax year 2022; Area Deprivation Index 202395% CI −0.82 to −0.693,129 countiescounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)IRS Statistics of Income
    shape_top_q110.0%percent of returns with adjusted gross income $200,000 or moreshare of all returns in the counties of the group (pooled, so weighted by returns)returns in the least deprived fifth of counties (fifths of counties by Area Deprivation Index hold equal numbers of counties)tax year 2022625 countiesnone (full count of returns)IRS Statistics of Income
    shape_top_q52.3%percent of returns with adjusted gross income $200,000 or moreshare of all returns in the counties of the group (pooled, so weighted by returns)returns in the most deprived fifth of counties (fifths of counties by Area Deprivation Index hold equal numbers of counties)tax year 2022624 countiesnone (full count of returns)IRS Statistics of Income
    shape_under25_q126.7%percent of returns with adjusted gross income under $25,000share of all returns in the counties of the group (pooled, so weighted by returns)returns in the least deprived fifth of counties (fifths of counties by Area Deprivation Index hold equal numbers of counties)tax year 2022625 countiesnone (full count of returns)IRS Statistics of Income
    shape_under25_q537.6%percent of returns with adjusted gross income under $25,000share of all returns in the counties of the group (pooled, so weighted by returns)returns in the most deprived fifth of counties (fifths of counties by Area Deprivation Index hold equal numbers of counties)tax year 2022624 countiesnone (full count of returns)IRS Statistics of Income
    top_bracket_line$200,000dollars of adjusted gross incomelower limit of the top adjusted-gross-income bracket (agi_stub 8) of the IRS county fileindividual income tax returnstax year 2022none (definition)IRS Statistics of Income
    top_hi1.9%percent of individual returns that report adjusted gross income of $200,000 or morecounty-population-weighted mean of the county share of returns, interval from a bootstrap over statesreturns in the most deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation Index (tenths hold equal numbers of counties)tax year 202295% CI 1.7% to 2.1%312 countiescounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)IRS Statistics of Income
    top_lo11.1%percent of individual returns that report adjusted gross income of $200,000 or morecounty-population-weighted mean of the county share of returns, interval from a bootstrap over statesreturns in the least deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation Index (tenths hold equal numbers of counties)tax year 202295% CI 10.3% to 11.9%312 countiescounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)IRS Statistics of Income
    top_nat7.8%percent of individual returns that report adjusted gross income of $200,000 or morereturns in the top bracket divided by all returns, all counties pooledall individual income tax returns in the IRS county filetax year 2022158,707,990 returnsnone (full count of returns)IRS Statistics of Income
    wls_top_beta0.41standard deviations of the county mobility rank per standard deviation of the top-bracket sharestandardized coefficient on the top-bracket share alone; coefficient in a county-population-weighted regression of standardized variables, errors clustered on statecounties with an income-tax shape, an Area Deprivation Index and an Opportunity Atlas rank (Connecticut left out)tax year 2022; mobility for children born 1978 to 198395% CI 0.33 to 0.503,116 countiescounty population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county)IRS Statistics of Income

    Definitions

    USALEEP
    The U.S. Small-area Life Expectancy Estimates Project, a National Center for Health Statistics release of life expectancy at birth for most census tracts. It covers deaths from 2010 to 2015 only and has not been updated.
    EITC
    The Earned Income Tax Credit, a refundable federal tax credit for low and moderate income workers. It grows with earnings up to a limit and then phases out.
    HOLC grade
    A letter from A to D that the Home Owners' Loan Corporation gave neighborhoods on its 1930s maps, with A labeled best and D hazardous. The maps are known as redlining maps.
    Area Deprivation Index (ADI)
    A score that ranks neighborhoods by income, education, employment and housing conditions drawn from the American Community Survey. In this book a higher national percentile means a more deprived neighborhood.
    Income rank (kfr)
    The position that adult children reach in the national distribution of household income, from the lowest rank to the highest, averaged over children who grew up in a place with parents at a stated income level. The Opportunity Atlas labels this measure kfr.
    Fixed effects
    A regression adjustment that gives each group, such as each county, its own baseline. The estimate then rests on differences within groups.
    Interquartile range
    The distance between the first quartile and the third quartile of a set of values. It describes the spread of the middle of a distribution and is not moved by extreme values.
    Ecological inference
    Drawing conclusions about individuals from data about places or groups. A pattern across counties need not hold for the people inside them.

    Methods

    This chapter compares places (census tracts and counties), not households, and each comparison has its own sample, weights and interval method, set out below. Life expectancy is for deaths in 2010 to 2015, while home values and the tract measures are from the ACS 2019-2023, so the outcome and the predictor come from different periods. The metro exchange rate covers only metros with many tracts and residents in the sample, the HOLC comparison covers only tracts in graded cities, and the Area Deprivation Index that ranks counties is built partly from income, so some of the income gradient is built in.

    Tracts, life expectancy and home value

    Life expectancy is the USALEEP estimate for deaths in 2010 to 2015 on 2020 tracts (area-weighted from 2010 tracts), with institutional tracts, where at least 25 percent of residents live in group quarters, left out.

    Each tract is paired with its own ACS 2019-2023 median home value, which the Census Bureau top-codes at $2,000,001; tracts with a value at or below $10,000 are left out, and tracts are weighted by their ACS 2019-2023 population.

    Until 2026-10-28 this comparison used ZIP Code Tabulation Areas, each given the population-weighted mean of the tracts whose largest-overlap ZCTA it was, and a ZCTA median home value from a purchased ZIP file whose vintage is not documented. That value's top code of $1,000,001 and the file's population total point to about 2010 to 2014, and the chapter had labeled it ACS 2019-2023.

    Twentieths of tracts hold equal numbers of tracts.

    Figure explained here: Figure 1

    Years per doubling and the metro exchange rate

    Years per doubling of home value is the slope of tract life expectancy on the base-2 log of home value, with each tract counted once and weighted by population, from the book's shared routine, with intervals from a bootstrap over counties.

    Tracts carry no metro code, so each tract takes the core-based statistical area of its county from the Census 2020 county file; core-based statistical areas are built from whole counties, so this assigns codes and moves no values.

    The metro exchange rate is the median of the tracts' median home values divided by the within-metro slope of life expectancy on the natural log of home value, for metros with at least 250 tracts and 1.5 million residents in the sample, with intervals from a bootstrap over tracts within the metro.

    Figure explained here: Figure 1

    Income shapes and the county ranking

    The IRS county file for tax year 2022 gives returns in eight adjusted-gross-income brackets; the EITC share is returns claiming the credit divided by all returns, and the top-bracket share is returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more divided by all returns.

    Counties are ranked on the Area Deprivation Index (tract ranks averaged with ACS 2019-2023 population weights); tenths and fifths hold equal numbers of counties. Means and correlations are weighted by county population, with intervals from a bootstrap over states.

    Mobility regressions use weighted z-scores of the Opportunity Atlas county rank, with errors clustered on state; Connecticut drops out because its planning-region codes do not match the Atlas's counties.

    Figure explained here: Figure 2

    HOLC grades and tract outcomes

    Graded polygons (A to D) are intersected with 2020 tracts in an equal-area projection; a tract with at least 50 percent of its area graded takes the grade covering most of it, and the city of the polygon covering most of it.

    Tract outcomes are weighted by ACS 2019-2023 population, with intervals from a bootstrap over counties; the within-city gap uses a weighted regression with a separate baseline for each city.

    Figure explained here: Figure 3

    Bootstrap settings and city comparisons

    The city comparison resamples tracts within a city and grade and treats them as independent.

    Bootstrap intervals use 2,000 replicates and seed 12345.

    What these data cannot show

    Every comparison in this chapter describes places. A county or a tract is not a person, and a pattern across places need not hold for the people inside them (ecological inference). The residents of a tract differ from movers in income, health and age, and the data cannot separate selection from what an area provides.

    The price of a year joins life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015 to home values for 2019 to 2023, so the two describe different years. The life expectancy estimates are modeled for small areas and area-weighted from 2010 to 2020 tracts. A tract median home value rests on few homes and the tract file carries no margins of error, so part of the spread across tracts is sampling error. The dollar figures divide a price level by a slope that is itself estimated with error.

    The IRS file covers people who file a return, so the shares are shares of returns and leave out people who do not file. The EITC share depends on eligibility and on whether eligible households claim the credit, and the top-bracket share is a share of returns, not of people. Connecticut is absent from the mobility regressions because its planning-region codes do not match the Atlas's counties.

    The grades followed the neighborhoods' housing, incomes and populations in the 1930s, so the staircase today combines what the neighborhoods were with what happened after. The boundary study in the box above finds that the maps themselves mattered for housing outcomes and segregation next to borders, and it does not show that the grades explain today's differences in life expectancy. Tracts are matched to grades by area, and the Atlas ranks are interpolated by area from 2010 tracts. The maps cover the cities that HOLC surveyed, so a city that is absent was not surveyed, which does not mean it had no redlining.

    References

    1. Rosen, Sherwin (1974). Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition. Journal of Political Economy 82(1): 34-55. doi:10.1086/260169
    2. Nelson, Robert K.; Winling, LaDale; Marciano, Richard; Connolly, Nathan; et al. (2023). Mapping Inequality: Redlining in New Deal America. American Panorama, ed. Robert K. Nelson and Edward L. Ayers, Digital Scholarship Lab, University of Richmond. dsl.richmond.edu/panorama/redlining/
    3. Aaronson, Daniel; Hartley, Daniel; Mazumder, Bhashkar (2021). The Effects of the 1930s HOLC "Redlining" Maps. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 13(4): 355-392. doi:10.1257/pol.20190414

    Provenance

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    Machine formats