# Home value, income and redlining: report

Chapter 5.2 of ZIP Code Destiny, by Vishal Singh (NYU Stern). Generated from the chapter's data files; the reading version is at https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/home-value-income-and-redlining. Table n of this report is figure n of the chapter.

## Identification

- Title: Home value, income and redlining
- Label: The deed and the ledger
- Chapter: 5.2 (Part V, Home, work and money; An American life)
- Question: How much longer do people live where homes are worth more, and how do the 1930s redlining grades line up with outcomes today?
- Dek: Across census tracts, each counted once, life expectancy at birth for deaths in 2010 to 2015 is 2.2 years higher for each doubling of the median home value for 2019 to 2023.
- Grain: neighborhoods
- Status: published
- Published: 2026-10-09
- Updated: 2026-10-28
- Data sources:
  - USALEEP life expectancy. Life expectancy at birth by tract, deaths in 2010 to 2015, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts; years: 2010-2015; weights: ACS 2019-2023 tract population; each tract once for the unweighted slope
  - American Community Survey. ACS 2019 to 2023: median home value by tract, tract population, homeownership, household income and renter households; years: 2019-2023 (5-year); weights: 2019-2023 tract population
  - Census TIGER/Line tracts. Census 2020 county file: the core-based statistical area code of each county (CBSAFP), which assigns tracts to metros; years: 2020; weights: none (assignment of counties to metros)
  - IRS Statistics of Income. IRS Statistics of Income county file, tax year 2022: returns, returns claiming the earned income tax credit and returns by adjusted gross income bracket; years: tax year 2022; weights: none (full counts of returns)
  - Area Deprivation Index. Area Deprivation Index 2023, national rank, tracts averaged to counties; years: 2023 release (version 4.0.1; built on ACS 2019-2023); weights: ACS 2019-2023 tract population
  - Opportunity Atlas. Adult household income rank of children born 1978 to 1983 to parents at the 25th income percentile, county and 2020-tract files; years: 1978-1983 birth cohorts (2018 release); weights: county population; tract population
  - Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps). Mapping Inequality HOLC residential security maps, 1935 to 1940, graded polygons overlaid on 2020 tracts; years: 1930s-1940s maps (2023 digitization); weights: ACS 2019-2023 tract population
- Canonical URL: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/home-value-income-and-redlining
- Report: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/home-value-income-and-redlining/report
- Markdown: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/home-value-income-and-redlining/report.md
- BibTeX key: singh2026homevalueincomeandredlining

```bibtex
@misc{singh2026homevalueincomeandredlining,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Home value, income and redlining},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/home-value-income-and-redlining},
  note = {In ZIP Code Destiny. Published 9 October 2026; updated 28 October 2026.}
}
```

## Principal estimates

The facts the dek and the opening prose cite, in order of appearance.

| Estimand | Population | Period | Value | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Fact id |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| slope of tract life expectancy on log2 tract median home value, each tract counted once, county-cluster bootstrap interval | non-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC) | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) | 2.2 | 95% CI 2.1 to 2.3 | 76,702 tracts | none (each tract counts once) | USALEEP life expectancy | price_doubling_yrs |
| count of tracts in the regression | non-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC) | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) | 76,702 |   |   | none (full count) | USALEEP life expectancy | price_n_tracts |

## Findings

Life expectancy at birth is 2.2 (95% CI 2.1 to 2.3) years higher for each doubling of the median home value across 76,702 census tracts when each tract counts once. Life expectancy is the USALEEP estimate for deaths in 2010 to 2015, and each tract's median home value is from the American Community Survey for 2019 to 2023. The slope describes places. It does not say that a household that moved to a costlier area would live longer.

The chapter then turns to two other records that follow the address. One is the share of tax returns that claim the earned income tax credit or report a high income. The other is the set of grades that the Home Owners' Loan Corporation gave neighborhoods in the 1930s. Every comparison is between places (census tracts and counties), and none describes individual households. Eviction filings and the housing cost burden of renters are in Chapter 5.4, Renting, affordability and eviction (https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/renting-affordability-and-eviction).

### Home values rise with life expectancy

Each census tract is paired with its own median home value, with institutional tracts such as prisons and nursing facilities left out. An earlier version of this chapter compared ZIP code areas and used a ZIP-level median home value of unstated, older vintage, which it labeled as the 2019 to 2023 survey. This version uses the tract values from that survey. Across the tracts, life expectancy has a correlation of +0.59 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.61) with the logarithm of the home value and +0.50 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.52) with the home value in dollars. It moves more closely with the logarithm, so the slope is stated per doubling of the home value. When tracts count in proportion to their population, the slope is 2.2 (95% CI 2.1 to 2.3) years per doubling, nearly the same.

Ranking tracts by home value and averaging life expectancy within twentieths of the tracts, weighted by population, gives 73.5 (95% CI 73.1 to 73.9) years in the lowest twentieth and 82.8 (95% CI 82.5 to 83.2) years in the highest. The difference is 9.3 (95% CI 8.8 to 9.8) years. Economists call the price of a bundled feature a hedonic price. The price of a house is the sum of what buyers pay for each part of the address, such as bedrooms, schools and the commute.[1] Life expectancy is not a feature that a buyer can see or purchase, so the slope is not a price that anyone pays. It records that homes cost more where the people nearby live longer, and the data do not separate what an area provides from who can afford to buy there.

Inverting the slope within a metro gives a local exchange rate. Each tract counts in the metro of its county, and the sample has 39 metros with at least 250 tracts and 1.5 million residents. In each, the median home value of its tracts is divided by the within-metro slope of life expectancy on the logarithm of home value. The result is the housing dollars that separate a pair of tracts one year of life apart near the metro median.

A year costs $33 thousand (95% CI $30 thousand to $38 thousand) in Cincinnati, the metro with the lowest point estimate, and $658 thousand (95% CI $482 thousand to $947 thousand) in the San Jose metro, the highest (Table 1). The ratio between those two estimates is 19.6 (95% CI 14.1 to 28.7). That ratio compares the extremes of 39 noisy estimates, and its interval holds those metros fixed, so it understates how far apart the extremes are.

The point estimate is above $100 thousand in 16 metros, every California metro in the comparison among them, and the intervals for Sacramento, Portland and Las Vegas include that amount. Detroit has the largest within-metro correlation between life expectancy and the logarithm of home value, +0.78 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.80), and a year costs $44 thousand (95% CI $42 thousand to $47 thousand) there. The interval for Cleveland, the next largest, overlaps Detroit's, so the order is by point estimate.

Table 1. Life expectancy is 2.2 years higher for each doubling of tract home value, and a year of life costs $33 thousand in housing dollars in Cincinnati and $658 thousand in San Jose

The exchange rate follows the price level more than the strength of the link. Across the metros, dollars per year of life correlate +0.89 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.96) with the metro's median tract home value, so a year is cheap where homes are cheap and dear where homes are dear. Part of that correlation is built in, because dollars per year is the median home value divided by the slope. The figures say more about what housing costs than about how steeply longevity rises with value. Read them as orders of magnitude, because the tracts of one metro resemble one another and the interval for a single metro is narrower than the uncertainty.

### Income brackets change shape with deprivation

Whether a household can buy where homes are dear depends on its income. The income tax returns filed in a county describe the incomes of everyone who files there, and they do not identify who bought a home. A median summarizes a distribution of incomes with one number, and the returns describe it by bracket. The comparison covers 3,129 counties, with Connecticut's planning regions standing in for its counties, ranked by the Area Deprivation Index. Tenths hold equal numbers of counties, not equal numbers of people. The least deprived tenth holds 130.1 million people and the most deprived tenth 3.8 million.

The share of individual income tax returns for tax year 2022 that claim the earned income tax credit rises from 12.0% (95% CI 10.4% to 13.2%) in the least deprived tenth of counties to 28.9% (95% CI 26.4% to 31.2%) in the most deprived tenth (Table 2). The share of returns with an adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more falls from 11.1% (95% CI 10.3% to 11.9%) to 1.9% (95% CI 1.7% to 2.1%).

Nationally, 14.9% of returns claim the credit and 7.8% are in the top bracket. Across counties weighted by population, the EITC share correlates +0.57 (95% CI 0.43 to 0.72) with deprivation and the top-bracket share correlates −0.74 (95% CI −0.82 to −0.69). The ranking and the shares overlap in what they measure, because the Area Deprivation Index is built partly from income and poverty, so some of the gradient is built in.

The brackets change shape across the range and not only in their average. In the least deprived fifth of counties, 26.7% of returns report an adjusted gross income under $25,000 and 10.0% report $200,000 or more. In the most deprived fifth the shares are 37.6% and 2.3%. The lowest income group is the largest of the five groups in every fifth of counties, and the data do not say who is in it.

Table 2. The share of tax returns that claim the EITC rises from 12.0% to 28.9% across tenths of counties by deprivation, while the share with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more falls from 11.1% to 1.9%

Both shares exceed the national shares in only 15 of the 447 counties that have at least 150,000 residents, among them Fulton County and DeKalb County in Georgia and Essex County in New Jersey. In most of the other large counties one tail is heavier than the nation's and the other lighter.

The shares also line up with the mobility of children from low-income families, measured by the income rank that Chapter 4.3, Race, income and mobility (https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/race-income-and-mobility) defines. In a county-population-weighted regression of standardized variables, the top-bracket share alone has a coefficient of 0.41 (95% CI 0.33 to 0.50). With both shares and the deprivation index in the model, the coefficient on the top-bracket share is −0.03 (95% CI −0.27 to 0.20), an interval that includes zero. The coefficient on the EITC share is −0.49 (95% CI −0.75 to −0.23), which stays away from zero. The two shares correlate −0.65 (95% CI −0.70 to −0.60) across counties, so the regression cannot split their common signal cleanly. All of this is association across counties.

### Grades drawn in the 1930s and neighborhoods today

Between 1935 and 1940 the Home Owners' Loan Corporation drew residential security maps for cities across the country and graded neighborhoods from A, labeled best, to D, labeled hazardous.[2] The area descriptions that came with the maps show that the race and national origin of residents were among the factors in a grade, next to the housing stock and incomes.[3] The maps have long been out of use, and the grades still line up with today's neighborhoods.

Overlaying the graded polygons on 2020 census tracts gives 10,952 tracts in 222 HOLC cities and city areas where graded polygons cover at least 50% of the tract. Each tract takes the grade that covers most of its area.

Life expectancy at birth, for deaths in 2010 to 2015, averages 80.9 (95% CI 80.1 to 81.6) years in grade A tracts and 76.8 (95% CI 75.5 to 77.8) years in grade D tracts, a gap of 4.1 (95% CI 3.3 to 5.1) years with tracts counted in proportion to their population (Table 3). The gap is 3.6 (95% CI 2.6 to 4.9) years when graded polygons must cover at least 90% of a tract, so it moves with the matching rule and stays positive.

Grade A tracts are in cities whose graded tracts have a lower average life expectancy than the cities of grade D tracts. Comparing tracts within the same city, with a separate baseline for each city (fixed effects), widens the gap to 5.8 (95% CI 5.3 to 6.4) years.

Other measures step in the same direction. The adult income rank of children from low-income families averages 46.3 (95% CI 45.3 to 47.1) in grade A tracts and 37.9 (95% CI 36.3 to 39.2) in grade D tracts, in percentile points of the national household income distribution. The rank is from the Opportunity Atlas and describes children born in 1978 to 1983.

Homeownership is 67.8% (95% CI 65.0% to 70.6%) of households in grade A tracts and 35.3% (95% CI 31.7% to 39.7%) in grade D tracts. The mean of tract median household incomes is $127 thousand (95% CI $115 thousand to $138 thousand) and $71 thousand (95% CI $63 thousand to $78 thousand) in the two grades. These comparisons describe neighborhoods today, and the two grades differ in housing, income and population from before the maps were drawn.

Table 3. Tracts graded A on the 1930s HOLC maps have a life expectancy of 80.9 years, against 76.8 years in tracts graded D, for deaths in 2010 to 2015

 (Note: The Area Deprivation Index is close to the same value in grade B, C and D tracts (41, 42 and 41) while life expectancy falls from grade B to grade D. Several of the census measures behind the index are home values, rents and mortgage payments, so places with high housing costs read as less deprived (Chapter 1.1, What the deprivation index measures (https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/anatomy-of-deprivation)). These data do not test whether that explains the flat pattern.)

The grades shift the middle of the distribution and do not sort tracts into separate groups. In 75% of random pairs of one grade A tract and one grade D tract, drawn in proportion to population, the grade A tract has the higher life expectancy. In the remaining pairs the grade D tract does. The interquartile ranges of neighboring grades overlap, and so do those of grades A and D.

Within cities the gap has the same sign wherever it can be measured. Among the 27 cities with at least 5 grade A and 10 grade D tracts that have a life expectancy, the gap is positive in every one. Its median is 5.7 years, and it ranges from 3.4 to 10.1 years between the 5th and 95th percentiles of cities. A city's grade A mean rests on few tracts, so single cities are noisy.

> Causal evidence: Whether the HOLC maps changed the neighborhoods they graded (Boundary design with propensity-score weighting; comparison of cities around a population cutoff)
>
> The comparisons above cannot separate the effect of the maps from the neighborhoods the maps graded, because surveyors graded areas on housing, incomes and race. Aaronson, Hartley and Mazumder study the maps with decennial census data.[3] They compare changes over time in outcomes between the two sides of a grade border, within a few blocks, using census data from before the maps as well as after. Because borders already differed before the maps, they weight comparison borders by propensity scores so that the earlier patterns in race and housing match, and they separately use borders that were unlikely to have been drawn along neighborhood differences. A third analysis compares cities just below and just above the population cutoff that decided whether a city was mapped.
>
> They find that the maps reduced homeownership rates, house values and rents and increased racial segregation in later decades, and the comparison of cities around the cutoff gives broadly similar results. The paper does not study life expectancy or children's incomes, and its border estimates are local to areas beside a border.

### What these data cannot show

Every comparison in this chapter describes places. A county or a tract is not a person, and a pattern across places need not hold for the people inside them (ecological inference). The residents of a tract differ from movers in income, health and age, and the data cannot separate selection from what an area provides.

The price of a year joins life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015 to home values for 2019 to 2023, so the two describe different years. The life expectancy estimates are modeled for small areas and area-weighted from 2010 to 2020 tracts. A tract median home value rests on few homes and the tract file carries no margins of error, so part of the spread across tracts is sampling error. The dollar figures divide a price level by a slope that is itself estimated with error.

The IRS file covers people who file a return, so the shares are shares of returns and leave out people who do not file. The EITC share depends on eligibility and on whether eligible households claim the credit, and the top-bracket share is a share of returns, not of people. Connecticut is absent from the mobility regressions because its planning-region codes do not match the Atlas's counties.

The grades followed the neighborhoods' housing, incomes and populations in the 1930s, so the staircase today combines what the neighborhoods were with what happened after. The boundary study in the box above finds that the maps themselves mattered for housing outcomes and segregation next to borders, and it does not show that the grades explain today's differences in life expectancy. Tracts are matched to grades by area, and the Atlas ranks are interpolated by area from 2010 tracts. The maps cover the cities that HOLC surveyed, so a city that is absent was not surveyed, which does not mean it had no redlining.

## Tables

### Table 1. Life expectancy is 2.2 years higher for each doubling of tract home value, and a year of life costs $33 thousand in housing dollars in Cincinnati and $658 thousand in San Jose

Life expectancy at birth (deaths in 2010 to 2015) against median home value (ACS 2019 to 2023) across census tracts, and the housing dollars per year of life in each large metro

#### Table 1.1. Census tracts

Life expectancy is higher in tracts with higher home values, a correlation of +0.59 with the log of home value

Life expectancy at birth in years against median home value in dollars on a log scale, one dot per census tract (random sample), with population-weighted means for twentieths of tracts

No inline rows: the values of Table 1.1 are in https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/data/home-value-income-and-redlining/home_value_scatter.json.

#### Table 1.2. Dollars per year of life

A year of life costs between $33 thousand and $658 thousand in housing dollars at the lowest and highest point estimates among large metros, a ratio of 19.6

Median tract home value divided by the within-metro slope of life expectancy on the log of home value, thousands of dollars per year of life, metros with enough tracts

| conf_high | conf_low | correlation | dollars_k | metro | n |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: |
| 37.55 | 30.32 | 0.713 | 33.50 | Cincinnati | 514 |
| 39.58 | 32.99 | 0.766 | 36.05 | Cleveland | 581 |
| 41.56 | 32.15 | 0.700 | 36.46 | Indianapolis | 451 |
| 41.44 | 34.14 | 0.743 | 37.60 | Columbus, OH | 466 |
| 44.86 | 36.61 | 0.674 | 40.32 | Pittsburgh | 672 |
| 46.80 | 38.91 | 0.759 | 42.56 | St. Louis | 663 |
| 47.92 | 39.11 | 0.755 | 43.39 | Kansas City | 552 |
| 50.63 | 38.75 | 0.761 | 44 | Jacksonville | 318 |
| 47.10 | 42.07 | 0.778 | 44.42 | Detroit | 1,214 |
| 57.66 | 40.14 | 0.653 | 47.65 | Virginia Beach-Norfolk | 428 |
| 60.15 | 51.65 | 0.743 | 55.92 | Baltimore | 660 |
| 64.51 | 51.84 | 0.673 | 57.89 | Charlotte | 594 |
| 62.47 | 54.77 | 0.608 | 58.45 | Chicago | 2,159 |
| 68.50 | 52.92 | 0.610 | 59.66 | San Antonio | 451 |
| 64.08 | 56.52 | 0.695 | 59.96 | Philadelphia | 1,438 |
| 71.95 | 53.88 | 0.504 | 61.95 | Minneapolis-St. Paul | 845 |
| 73.11 | 62.19 | 0.617 | 67.43 | Atlanta | 1,336 |
| 82.12 | 56.15 | 0.521 | 67.66 | Providence | 354 |
| 77.71 | 64.76 | 0.545 | 70.50 | Houston | 1,382 |
| 88.03 | 62.90 | 0.530 | 73.22 | Nashville | 383 |
| 87.29 | 73.01 | 0.615 | 79.85 | Dallas-Fort Worth | 1,449 |
| 97.33 | 71.40 | 0.491 | 83.40 | Tampa | 682 |
| 131.2 | 76.66 | 0.416 | 98.47 | Orlando | 449 |
| 118.5 | 88.09 | 0.547 | 101.6 | Sacramento | 515 |
| 126.7 | 88.37 | 0.464 | 105.1 | Portland, OR | 533 |
| 142.3 | 102.5 | 0.495 | 119.7 | Phoenix | 932 |
| 168.6 | 94.07 | 0.400 | 125.9 | Las Vegas | 467 |
| 148.0 | 115.0 | 0.391 | 130.2 | Miami | 1,347 |
| 172.8 | 112.9 | 0.492 | 137.8 | Riverside-San Bernardino | 929 |
| 167.8 | 116.5 | 0.446 | 139.9 | Denver | 623 |
| 165.8 | 121.6 | 0.605 | 140.4 | Seattle | 823 |
| 176.6 | 134.1 | 0.383 | 153.6 | Washington, D.C. | 1,324 |
| 190.0 | 148.7 | 0.461 | 166.4 | Boston | 1,032 |
| 213.3 | 142.1 | 0.405 | 171.8 | Austin | 432 |
| 242.4 | 205.2 | 0.449 | 222.4 | Los Angeles | 2,829 |
| 279.9 | 186.0 | 0.450 | 227.5 | San Diego | 667 |
| 274.3 | 227.1 | 0.556 | 247.9 | San Francisco-Oakland | 1,024 |
| 357.7 | 275.3 | 0.288 | 311.1 | New York | 4,281 |
| 947.0 | 481.6 | 0.322 | 657.8 | San Jose | 400 |

Note: The sample is 76,702 census tracts that have a life expectancy estimate and a median home value, with institutional tracts such as prisons and nursing facilities left out. Each tract carries its own ACS median home value, which the Census Bureau top-codes at about two million dollars. An earlier version of this figure used ZIP code areas and a ZIP-level home value of unstated, older vintage.

Note: The dots are drawn at random from the tracts inside the plotted range with seed 12345. Every estimate in the chapter uses all tracts.

Note: Twentieths hold equal numbers of tracts. Intervals on the markers resample whole counties; intervals in the second tab resample the tracts of one metro and treat them as independent, so they are narrower than they should be. Each tract takes the metro of its county, and a metro enters with at least 250 tracts and 1.5 million residents in the sample.

Note: Life expectancy is the estimate for deaths in 2010 to 2015 and home values are for 2019 to 2023, so the two describe different years.

Source: USALEEP life expectancy 2010-2015 (non-institutional tracts, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts) and ACS 2019-2023 tract median home value; population-weighted twentieths, unweighted fitted line, modeled estimates

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/home-value-income-and-redlining/figures/home_value_vs_le.json

### Table 2. The share of tax returns that claim the EITC rises from 12.0% to 28.9% across tenths of counties by deprivation, while the share with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more falls from 11.1% to 1.9%

Shares of individual income tax returns by tenth of counties on the Area Deprivation Index, and the distribution of returns across five income groups by fifth of counties, tax year 2022

#### Table 2.1. By deprivation tenth

Across tenths of counties, the EITC share rises with deprivation and the top-bracket share falls

Percent of individual income tax returns, county-population-weighted mean, tax year 2022, by tenth of counties on the Area Deprivation Index (1 = least deprived)

| conf_high | conf_low | counties | decile | series | share |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: |
| 13.19 | 10.39 | 312 | 1 | Returns claiming the EITC | 12.03 |
| 16.07 | 12.76 | 313 | 2 | Returns claiming the EITC | 14.75 |
| 17.66 | 14.05 | 313 | 3 | Returns claiming the EITC | 15.93 |
| 18.40 | 15.68 | 313 | 4 | Returns claiming the EITC | 17.01 |
| 20.10 | 16.71 | 313 | 5 | Returns claiming the EITC | 18.34 |
| 22.56 | 17.61 | 313 | 6 | Returns claiming the EITC | 20.18 |
| 21.23 | 17.57 | 313 | 7 | Returns claiming the EITC | 19.32 |
| 26.24 | 18.63 | 315 | 8 | Returns claiming the EITC | 22.40 |
| 26.09 | 21.03 | 312 | 9 | Returns claiming the EITC | 23.69 |
| 31.16 | 26.41 | 312 | 10 | Returns claiming the EITC | 28.93 |
| 11.87 | 10.34 | 312 | 1 | Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more | 11.06 |
| 8.08 | 6.73 | 313 | 2 | Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more | 7.46 |
| 6.31 | 5.30 | 313 | 3 | Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more | 5.91 |
| 5.24 | 4.55 | 313 | 4 | Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more | 4.88 |
| 4.38 | 3.66 | 313 | 5 | Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more | 4.06 |
| 3.69 | 3.20 | 313 | 6 | Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more | 3.43 |
| 3.20 | 2.80 | 313 | 7 | Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more | 3 |
| 2.94 | 2.50 | 315 | 8 | Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more | 2.69 |
| 2.64 | 2.24 | 312 | 9 | Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more | 2.43 |
| 2.13 | 1.73 | 312 | 10 | Returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more | 1.92 |

#### Table 2.2. Shape of the brackets

The lowest income group makes up a larger share of returns and the highest group a smaller share toward the most deprived fifth of counties

Share of individual income tax returns by adjusted-gross-income group, percent, returns pooled over the counties in each fifth by Area Deprivation Index, tax year 2022

| bracket | counties | place | returns | share |
| --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Under $25,000 | 3,143 | United States | 158707990 | 28.63 |
| $25,000 to $49,999 | 3,143 | United States | 158707990 | 22.94 |
| $50,000 to $99,999 | 3,143 | United States | 158707990 | 24.39 |
| $100,000 to $199,999 | 3,143 | United States | 158707990 | 16.26 |
| $200,000 or more | 3,143 | United States | 158707990 | 7.78 |
| Under $25,000 | 625 | Least deprived fifth of counties | 95107340 | 26.66 |
| $25,000 to $49,999 | 625 | Least deprived fifth of counties | 95107340 | 21.38 |
| $50,000 to $99,999 | 625 | Least deprived fifth of counties | 95107340 | 24.31 |
| $100,000 to $199,999 | 625 | Least deprived fifth of counties | 95107340 | 17.69 |
| $200,000 or more | 625 | Least deprived fifth of counties | 95107340 | 9.97 |
| Under $25,000 | 626 | Second fifth | 34986790 | 29.81 |
| $25,000 to $49,999 | 626 | Second fifth | 34986790 | 24.65 |
| $50,000 to $99,999 | 626 | Second fifth | 34986790 | 24.85 |
| $100,000 to $199,999 | 626 | Second fifth | 34986790 | 15.22 |
| $200,000 or more | 626 | Second fifth | 34986790 | 5.46 |
| Under $25,000 | 626 | Middle fifth | 16064920 | 32.58 |
| $25,000 to $49,999 | 626 | Middle fifth | 16064920 | 25.65 |
| $50,000 to $99,999 | 626 | Middle fifth | 16064920 | 24.40 |
| $100,000 to $199,999 | 626 | Middle fifth | 16064920 | 13.55 |
| $200,000 or more | 626 | Middle fifth | 16064920 | 3.81 |
| Under $25,000 | 628 | Fourth fifth | 8727300 | 34.25 |
| $25,000 to $49,999 | 628 | Fourth fifth | 8727300 | 26.38 |
| $50,000 to $99,999 | 628 | Fourth fifth | 8727300 | 24.25 |
| $100,000 to $199,999 | 628 | Fourth fifth | 8727300 | 12.25 |
| $200,000 or more | 628 | Fourth fifth | 8727300 | 2.87 |
| Under $25,000 | 624 | Most deprived fifth of counties | 3811920 | 37.64 |
| $25,000 to $49,999 | 624 | Most deprived fifth of counties | 3811920 | 26.99 |
| $50,000 to $99,999 | 624 | Most deprived fifth of counties | 3811920 | 22.54 |
| $100,000 to $199,999 | 624 | Most deprived fifth of counties | 3811920 | 10.58 |
| $200,000 or more | 624 | Most deprived fifth of counties | 3811920 | 2.25 |

Note: Tenths and fifths hold equal numbers of counties, not equal numbers of people, so the most deprived tenth holds far fewer returns than the least deprived. The Area Deprivation Index is built from income, poverty, education and housing measures, so a gradient of income-based shares against it is partly built in.

Note: The IRS file covers people who file a return. The EITC share is the share of returns that claim the credit, which depends on eligibility and on filing, and the top-bracket share is the share of returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more. Both are counts of returns with no sampling error; the intervals in the first tab come from differences between states.

Note: 14.9% of all returns claim the EITC and 7.8% are in the top bracket. Counties with no Area Deprivation Index are left out; Puerto Rico is not in the file.

Source: IRS Statistics of Income county file, tax year 2022, and Area Deprivation Index 2023; population-weighted county means, full counts of returns

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/home-value-income-and-redlining/figures/eitc_vs_top_bracket.json

### Table 3. Tracts graded A on the 1930s HOLC maps have a life expectancy of 80.9 years, against 76.8 years in tracts graded D, for deaths in 2010 to 2015

Tract outcomes by 1930s HOLC grade: means of five measures, the spread of life expectancy, and the gap between grade A and grade D tracts city by city

#### Table 3.1. Means by grade

Life expectancy, adult income rank, homeownership and household income are lower in each step from grade A to grade D

Population-weighted mean of tract values by HOLC grade, each panel in its own units

| conf_high | conf_low | grade | label | mean | n | outcome |
| ---: | ---: | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| 81.57 | 80.13 | A | Grade A | 80.93 | 629 | Life expectancy at birth (years) |
| 79.81 | 78.30 | B | Grade B | 79.10 | 2,133 | Life expectancy at birth (years) |
| 78.74 | 76.88 | C | Grade C | 77.95 | 4,710 | Life expectancy at birth (years) |
| 77.79 | 75.50 | D | Grade D | 76.84 | 2,671 | Life expectancy at birth (years) |
| 47.15 | 45.26 | A | Grade A | 46.26 | 672 | Adult income rank of children from low-income families (percentile) |
| 44.14 | 41.99 | B | Grade B | 43.11 | 2,245 | Adult income rank of children from low-income families (percentile) |
| 42.56 | 39.57 | C | Grade C | 41.20 | 5,051 | Adult income rank of children from low-income families (percentile) |
| 39.15 | 36.27 | D | Grade D | 37.93 | 2,974 | Adult income rank of children from low-income families (percentile) |
| 70.58 | 64.96 | A | Grade A | 67.81 | 672 | Homeownership rate (% of households) |
| 56.70 | 48.44 | B | Grade B | 52.55 | 2,246 | Homeownership rate (% of households) |
| 47.75 | 39.33 | C | Grade C | 43.45 | 5,052 | Homeownership rate (% of households) |
| 39.73 | 31.66 | D | Grade D | 35.32 | 2,973 | Homeownership rate (% of households) |
| 138.4 | 114.9 | A | Grade A | 127.4 | 669 | Median household income (thousands of dollars) |
| 96.19 | 82.24 | B | Grade B | 89.54 | 2,236 | Median household income (thousands of dollars) |
| 78.97 | 68.80 | C | Grade C | 74.16 | 5,015 | Median household income (thousands of dollars) |
| 78.02 | 62.77 | D | Grade D | 71.12 | 2,920 | Median household income (thousands of dollars) |
| 38.43 | 25.53 | A | Grade A | 31.55 | 670 | Area Deprivation Index (national percentile, 100 = most deprived) |
| 49.21 | 33.19 | B | Grade B | 40.78 | 2,241 | Area Deprivation Index (national percentile, 100 = most deprived) |
| 52.72 | 33.35 | C | Grade C | 41.77 | 5,040 | Area Deprivation Index (national percentile, 100 = most deprived) |
| 52.98 | 31.56 | D | Grade D | 40.64 | 2,953 | Area Deprivation Index (national percentile, 100 = most deprived) |

#### Table 3.2. Spread of life expectancy

The distributions of tract life expectancy overlap heavily across grades, and the grade shifts the middle

Population-weighted mean of tract life expectancy at birth with the interquartile range (the 25th to the 75th percentile of tracts, weighted by tract population) by HOLC grade, deaths in 2010 to 2015

| grade | label | mean | n | q25 | q75 |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| A | Grade A | 80.93 | 629 | 78.60 | 83.60 |
| B | Grade B | 79.10 | 2,133 | 76.38 | 82 |
| C | Grade C | 77.95 | 4,710 | 75.30 | 81.10 |
| D | Grade D | 76.84 | 2,671 | 73.60 | 80.20 |

#### Table 3.3. City by city

In each of 27 HOLC cities life expectancy is higher in grade A tracts than in grade D tracts, with a median gap of 5.7 years

Population-weighted mean life expectancy at birth of grade D and grade A tracts in each city with enough tracts, deaths in 2010 to 2015

| city | hi_a | hi_d | le_a | le_d | lo_a | lo_d | tracts_a | tracts_d |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| San Diego, CA | 84.12 | 79.86 | 82.15 | 79.15 | 79.68 | 78.46 | 5 | 37 |
| Houston, TX | 81.99 | 79.72 | 80.90 | 77.65 | 79.63 | 74.83 | 21 | 14 |
| Wichita, KS | 78.66 | 73.57 | 76.45 | 72.54 | 74.46 | 71.42 | 5 | 19 |
| Passaic County, NJ | 83.37 | 79 | 81.39 | 77.42 | 79.20 | 75.69 | 5 | 19 |
| Los Angeles, CA | 84.44 | 79.87 | 83.62 | 79.46 | 82.75 | 79.10 | 48 | 269 |
| Detroit, MI | 79.75 | 73.60 | 77.47 | 72.96 | 75.08 | 72.32 | 20 | 91 |
| San Francisco, CA | 87.22 | 81.58 | 85.44 | 80.91 | 83.56 | 80.26 | 6 | 54 |
| Manhattan, NY | 87.31 | 82.51 | 86.18 | 81.65 | 84.87 | 80.77 | 13 | 114 |
| San Antonio, TX | 80.90 | 75.36 | 79.21 | 74.41 | 77.89 | 73.64 | 5 | 22 |
| Minneapolis, MN | 83.54 | 78.26 | 81.71 | 76.85 | 79.56 | 75.36 | 8 | 15 |
| Union Co., NJ | 83.58 | 78.73 | 82.17 | 77.27 | 80.60 | 75.86 | 9 | 15 |
| Essex Co., NJ | 83.59 | 78.76 | 82.33 | 76.96 | 81.06 | 75.12 | 22 | 35 |
| Fort Worth, TX | 82.73 | 76.16 | 80.32 | 74.87 | 78.45 | 73.44 | 5 | 15 |
| Philadelphia, PA | 80.99 | 74.66 | 79.57 | 73.89 | 78.25 | 73.17 | 26 | 127 |
| Baltimore, MD | 81.72 | 74.17 | 78.62 | 72.57 | 75.50 | 70.88 | 9 | 36 |
| Miami, FL | 83.53 | 77.45 | 82.39 | 75.90 | 81.27 | 74.47 | 8 | 30 |
| St. Louis, MO | 82.03 | 74.84 | 80.36 | 73.73 | 78.71 | 72.65 | 17 | 14 |
| Des Moines, IA | 80.64 | 74.71 | 79.69 | 72.98 | 78.70 | 71.24 | 7 | 12 |
| Chicago, IL | 84.67 | 77.10 | 83.34 | 76.49 | 81.94 | 75.85 | 13 | 210 |
| Columbus, OH | 81 | 74.48 | 78.88 | 71.71 | 76.40 | 68.86 | 10 | 10 |
| Oakland, CA | 86.88 | 78.84 | 85.20 | 77.84 | 83.69 | 76.94 | 11 | 39 |
| Cleveland, OH | 81.62 | 72.58 | 80.18 | 71.71 | 78.76 | 70.89 | 23 | 43 |
| Pittsburgh, PA | 83.27 | 74.53 | 82 | 73.09 | 80.80 | 71.64 | 7 | 31 |
| Milwaukee Co., WI | 86.01 | 75.80 | 84.66 | 74.79 | 82.76 | 73.77 | 5 | 37 |
| Indianapolis, IN | 82.38 | 72.31 | 81.28 | 71.33 | 80.19 | 70.37 | 6 | 36 |
| Louisville, KY | 82.54 | 71.70 | 80.54 | 70.34 | 78.27 | 68.59 | 6 | 14 |
| Nashville, TN | 83.54 | 71.51 | 82.20 | 70.22 | 80.79 | 69.07 | 6 | 20 |

Note: A tract enters when graded polygons (A to D) cover at least 50% of its area and takes the grade that covers the most of it. The comparison is descriptive: the grades followed the neighborhoods' housing, incomes and the race and national origin of residents, so differences today do not isolate the effect of the maps.

Note: The tracts are in 222 HOLC cities and city areas, matched by overlay. With a stricter rule that graded polygons cover at least 90% of a tract the life-expectancy gap between grades A and D is 3.6 years.

Note: Life expectancy is USALEEP for deaths in 2010 to 2015, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts, with institutional tracts left out. The adult income rank is the Opportunity Atlas rank of children born 1978 to 1983 to parents at the 25th income percentile, interpolated from 2010 to 2020 tracts by area. Tract values are weighted by ACS 2019-2023 population.

Source: Mapping Inequality HOLC maps (1935-1940) overlaid on 2020 tracts; USALEEP 2010-2015, Opportunity Atlas (1978-1983 birth cohorts), ACS 2019-2023 and ADI 2023; population-weighted, modeled estimates

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/home-value-income-and-redlining/figures/holc_grade_outcomes.json

## All estimates

Every fact in facts.json (70), sorted by id.

| Fact id | Value | Unit | Estimand | Population | Period | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Note |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| barbell_min_pop | 150,000 | residents | minimum county population for the comparison with the national shares | counties compared with the national shares | tax year 2022 |   |   | none (inclusion rule) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| beta_eitc | −0.49 | standard deviations of the county mobility rank per standard deviation of the EITC share | standardized coefficient on the EITC share with the other share and the Area Deprivation Index in the model; coefficient in a county-population-weighted regression of standardized variables, errors clustered on state | counties with an income-tax shape, an Area Deprivation Index and an Opportunity Atlas rank (Connecticut left out) | tax year 2022; mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 | 95% CI −0.75 to −0.23 | 3,116 counties | county population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| beta_top | −0.03 | standard deviations of the county mobility rank per standard deviation of the top-bracket share | standardized coefficient on the top-bracket share with the other share and the Area Deprivation Index in the model; coefficient in a county-population-weighted regression of standardized variables, errors clustered on state | counties with an income-tax shape, an Area Deprivation Index and an Opportunity Atlas rank (Connecticut left out) | tax year 2022; mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 | 95% CI −0.27 to 0.20 | 3,116 counties | county population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| bracket_low_line | $25,000 | dollars of adjusted gross income | upper limit of the lowest of the five income groups shown (returns with adjusted gross income under this amount; agi_stub 1 to 3) | individual income tax returns | tax year 2022 |   |   | none (definition) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| eitc_hi | 28.9% | percent of individual returns that claim the earned income tax credit | county-population-weighted mean of the county share of returns, interval from a bootstrap over states | returns in the most deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation Index (tenths hold equal numbers of counties) | tax year 2022 | 95% CI 26.4% to 31.2% | 312 counties | county population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| eitc_lo | 12.0% | percent of individual returns that claim the earned income tax credit | county-population-weighted mean of the county share of returns, interval from a bootstrap over states | returns in the least deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation Index (tenths hold equal numbers of counties) | tax year 2022 | 95% CI 10.4% to 13.2% | 312 counties | county population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| eitc_nat | 14.9% | percent of individual returns that claim the earned income tax credit | returns claiming the credit divided by all returns, all counties pooled | all individual income tax returns in the IRS county file | tax year 2022 |   | 158,707,990 returns | none (full count of returns) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| eitc_top_r | −0.65 | correlation coefficient | county-population-weighted correlation of the county EITC share with the county top-bracket share, bootstrap interval over states | counties in the gradient | tax year 2022 | 95% CI −0.70 to −0.60 | 3,129 counties | county population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| holc_adi_b | 41 | national percentile (100 = most deprived) | Area Deprivation Index 2023 national rank, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over counties | residents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded B and have an Area Deprivation Index value | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 | 95% CI 33 to 49 | 2,241 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_adi_c | 42 | national percentile (100 = most deprived) | Area Deprivation Index 2023 national rank, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over counties | residents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded C and have an Area Deprivation Index value | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 | 95% CI 33 to 53 | 5,040 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_adi_d | 41 | national percentile (100 = most deprived) | Area Deprivation Index 2023 national rank, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over counties | residents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded D and have an Area Deprivation Index value | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 | 95% CI 32 to 53 | 2,953 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_city_median | 5.7 | years of life expectancy at birth, grade A minus grade D | median over cities of the city's gap between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of its grade A tracts and of its grade D tracts | HOLC cities in the city-by-city comparison | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 |   | 27 cities | none (each city counts once) | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_city_n | 27 | HOLC cities and city areas | count of cities in the city-by-city comparison | HOLC cities with enough grade A and grade D tracts | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 |   |   | none (full count) | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_city_p5 | 3.4 | years of life expectancy at birth, grade A minus grade D | 5th percentile over cities of the city's gap between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of its grade A tracts and of its grade D tracts | HOLC cities in the city-by-city comparison | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 |   | 27 cities | none (each city counts once) | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_city_p95 | 10.1 | years of life expectancy at birth, grade A minus grade D | 95th percentile over cities of the city's gap between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of its grade A tracts and of its grade D tracts | HOLC cities in the city-by-city comparison | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 |   | 27 cities | none (each city counts once) | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_cover_min | 50% | percent of a tract's area | minimum share of a tract covered by graded polygons for the tract to enter | tracts in the comparison | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 |   |   | none (inclusion rule) | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_cover_strict | 90% | percent of a tract's area | stricter minimum share of a tract covered by graded polygons | tracts in the stricter comparison | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 |   |   | none (inclusion rule) | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_inc_a | $127 thousand | thousands of dollars | ACS 2019-2023 tract median household income, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over counties; a mean of tract medians, not a median of households | residents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded A and have a median household income | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 | 95% CI $115 thousand to $138 thousand | 669 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_inc_d | $71 thousand | thousands of dollars | ACS 2019-2023 tract median household income, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over counties; a mean of tract medians, not a median of households | residents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded D and have a median household income | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 | 95% CI $63 thousand to $78 thousand | 2,920 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_kfr_a | 46.3 | percentile points of national household income rank | mean adult household income rank (Opportunity Atlas, children born 1978 to 1983 to parents at the 25th income percentile), population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over counties | residents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded A and have an adult income rank of children from low-income families | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 | 95% CI 45.3 to 47.1 | 672 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_kfr_d | 37.9 | percentile points of national household income rank | mean adult household income rank (Opportunity Atlas, children born 1978 to 1983 to parents at the 25th income percentile), population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over counties | residents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded D and have an adult income rank of children from low-income families | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 | 95% CI 36.3 to 39.2 | 2,974 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_le_a | 80.9 | years of life expectancy at birth | population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over counties | residents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded A | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 | 95% CI 80.1 to 81.6 | 629 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_le_d | 76.8 | years of life expectancy at birth | population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over counties | residents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded D | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 | 95% CI 75.5 to 77.8 | 2,671 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_le_gap | 4.1 | years of life expectancy at birth, grade A minus grade D | difference between the population-weighted mean over grade A tracts and over grade D tracts, bootstrap interval over counties | residents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 | 95% CI 3.3 to 5.1 | 3,300 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_le_gap_90 | 3.6 | years of life expectancy at birth, grade A minus grade D | difference between the population-weighted mean over grade A tracts and over grade D tracts under the stricter coverage rule, bootstrap interval over counties | residents of tracts at least 90 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 | 95% CI 2.6 to 4.9 | 1,864 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_le_gap_fe | 5.8 | years of life expectancy at birth, grade A minus grade D, within the same city | coefficient of grade D relative to grade A (sign reversed) in a population-weighted regression of tract life expectancy on grade with a separate baseline for each city, errors clustered on county | residents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons and a life expectancy, in 222 HOLC cities | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 | 95% CI 5.3 to 6.4 | 10,143 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_min_a | 5 | tracts | minimum number of grade A tracts with a life expectancy for a city to enter | HOLC cities in the city-by-city comparison | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 |   |   | none (inclusion rule) | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_min_d | 10 | tracts | minimum number of grade D tracts with a life expectancy for a city to enter | HOLC cities in the city-by-city comparison | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 |   |   | none (inclusion rule) | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_n_cities | 222 | HOLC cities and city areas | count of distinct (city, state) names of the HOLC polygon covering the largest part of a tract | tracts in the comparison | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 |   |   | none (full count) | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_n_tracts | 10,952 | tracts | count of tracts in the comparison | 2020 census tracts with a population and at least half of their area under graded HOLC polygons | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 |   |   | none (full count) | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_own_a | 67.8% | percent of households | ACS 2019-2023 homeownership rate, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over counties | residents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded A and have a homeownership rate | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 | 95% CI 65.0% to 70.6% | 672 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_own_d | 35.3% | percent of households | ACS 2019-2023 homeownership rate, population-weighted mean over tracts of the tract value, grade assigned by the largest area overlap, bootstrap interval over counties | residents of tracts at least 50 percent covered by graded HOLC polygons that are graded D and have a homeownership rate | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 | 95% CI 31.7% to 39.7% | 2,973 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| holc_pair_share | 75% | percent of random pairs | probability that the grade A tract of a random pair has the higher life expectancy | pairs of one grade A tract and one grade D tract with a life expectancy, each drawn in proportion to its population | maps drawn 1935 to 1940; outcomes: life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015, income and homeownership 2019 to 2023, mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 |   | 3,300 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | Mapping Inequality (HOLC maps) |   |
| n_barbell_pool | 447 | counties | count of counties with at least the minimum population | counties with returns and an Area Deprivation Index | tax year 2022 |   |   | none (full count) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| n_both_tails | 15 | counties | count of counties whose EITC share and top-bracket share both exceed the national shares | counties with at least 150,000 residents (ACS 2019-2023 tract population) | tax year 2022 |   | 447 counties | none (full count) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| n_counties | 3,129 | counties and Connecticut planning regions | count of counties in the gradient | counties (Connecticut's planning regions stand in for its counties) in the IRS Statistics of Income county file with returns and an Area Deprivation Index | tax year 2022 |   |   | none (full count) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| pop_d1 | 130.1 million | people | sum of the ACS 2019-2023 tract population over the counties of the tenth | residents of counties in the least deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation Index | ACS 2019-2023 |   | 312 counties | none (full count) | American Community Survey |   |
| pop_d10 | 3.8 million | people | sum of the ACS 2019-2023 tract population over the counties of the tenth | residents of counties in the most deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation Index | ACS 2019-2023 |   | 312 counties | none (full count) | American Community Survey |   |
| price_cheap_usd | $33 thousand | thousands of dollars of median home value per year of life expectancy | median of the metro's tract median home values divided by the slope of tract life expectancy on the natural log of home value across the metro's tracts (each tract once), interval from a bootstrap over tracts within the metro | tracts of the metro in the canonical tract sample (each tract takes the core-based statistical area of its county), Cincinnati metro | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) | 95% CI $30 thousand to $38 thousand | 514 tracts | none (each tract counts once) | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| price_dear_usd | $658 thousand | thousands of dollars of median home value per year of life expectancy | median of the metro's tract median home values divided by the slope of tract life expectancy on the natural log of home value across the metro's tracts (each tract once), interval from a bootstrap over tracts within the metro | tracts of the metro in the canonical tract sample (each tract takes the core-based statistical area of its county), San Jose metro | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) | 95% CI $482 thousand to $947 thousand | 400 tracts | none (each tract counts once) | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| price_doubling_weighted | 2.2 | years of life expectancy at birth per doubling of median home value | slope of tract life expectancy on log2 tract median home value, weighted by tract population, county-cluster bootstrap interval | non-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC) | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) | 95% CI 2.1 to 2.3 | 76,702 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | USALEEP life expectancy | Tract life expectancy is paired with the tract's own ACS 2019-2023 median home value (top-coded at $2,000,001). Connecticut's nine planning regions stand in for its counties. Interval: bootstrap over counties. |
| price_doubling_yrs | 2.2 | years of life expectancy at birth per doubling of median home value | slope of tract life expectancy on log2 tract median home value, each tract counted once, county-cluster bootstrap interval | non-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC) | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) | 95% CI 2.1 to 2.3 | 76,702 tracts | none (each tract counts once) | USALEEP life expectancy | Tract life expectancy is paired with the tract's own ACS 2019-2023 median home value (top-coded at $2,000,001). Connecticut's nine planning regions stand in for its counties. Interval: bootstrap over counties. |
| price_le_hi | 82.8 | years of life expectancy at birth | population-weighted mean of tract life expectancy in a twentieth of tracts ranked by median home value (equal numbers of tracts), county-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of tracts in the highest twentieth of tracts by median home value | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) | 95% CI 82.5 to 83.2 | 3,836 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| price_le_lo | 73.5 | years of life expectancy at birth | population-weighted mean of tract life expectancy in a twentieth of tracts ranked by median home value (equal numbers of tracts), county-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of tracts in the lowest twentieth of tracts by median home value | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) | 95% CI 73.1 to 73.9 | 3,835 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| price_le_span | 9.3 | years of life expectancy at birth, highest minus lowest twentieth | difference between the population-weighted mean life expectancy of the highest and the lowest twentieth of tracts by median home value, county-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of tracts in the highest and the lowest twentieth of tracts by median home value | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) | 95% CI 8.8 to 9.8 | 7,671 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| price_maxr_r | +0.78 | correlation coefficient | correlation of tract life expectancy with the natural log of median home value within the metro, bootstrap interval over tracts | tracts of the metro in the canonical tract sample (each tract takes the core-based statistical area of its county), Detroit metro | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) | 95% CI 0.75 to 0.80 | 1,214 tracts | none (each tract counts once) | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| price_maxr_usd | $44 thousand | thousands of dollars of median home value per year of life expectancy | median of the metro's tract median home values divided by the slope of tract life expectancy on the natural log of home value across the metro's tracts (each tract once), interval from a bootstrap over tracts within the metro | tracts of the metro in the canonical tract sample (each tract takes the core-based statistical area of its county), Detroit metro | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) | 95% CI $42 thousand to $47 thousand | 1,214 tracts | none (each tract counts once) | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| price_metro_level_r | +0.89 | correlation coefficient | correlation across metros of dollars per year of life with the metro's median tract home value, bootstrap interval over metros | metros in the price-of-a-year comparison | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) | 95% CI 0.82 to 0.96 | 39 metros | none (each metro counts once) | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| price_metro_min_pop | 1.5 million | residents | minimum population of the metro's tracts in the sample for a metro to enter | metros in the price-of-a-year comparison | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) |   |   | none (inclusion rule) | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| price_metro_min_tracts | 250 | tracts | minimum number of tracts in the sample for a metro to enter | metros in the price-of-a-year comparison | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) |   |   | none (inclusion rule) | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| price_n_metros | 39 | metros | count of metros with the minimum number of tracts and residents and a positive slope | core-based statistical areas with a tract in the canonical tract sample (929 areas) | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) |   |   | none (full count) | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| price_n_outside | 21 | tracts | count of tracts outside the plotted rectangle (life expectancy 60 to 92 years, home value 10 thousand to 2.1 million dollars) | non-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC) | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) |   |   | none (full count) | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| price_n_sample | 5,000 | tracts | size of a random sample drawn with a fixed seed for the scatter plot | non-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC) | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) |   | 76,702 tracts | none (sample size) | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| price_n_six_figure | 16 | metros | count of metros where the point estimate of dollars per year of life exceeds the threshold (the interval of some of them includes the threshold) | metros in the price-of-a-year comparison | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) |   |   | none (full count) | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| price_n_tracts | 76,702 | tracts | count of tracts in the regression | non-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC) | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) |   |   | none (full count) | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| price_r | +0.59 | correlation coefficient | correlation of tract life expectancy with log2 tract median home value, county-cluster bootstrap interval | non-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC) | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) | 95% CI 0.56 to 0.61 | 76,702 tracts | none (each tract counts once) | USALEEP life expectancy | Tract life expectancy is paired with the tract's own ACS 2019-2023 median home value (top-coded at $2,000,001). Connecticut's nine planning regions stand in for its counties. Interval: bootstrap over counties. |
| price_r_linear | +0.50 | correlation coefficient | correlation of tract life expectancy with the tract median home value in dollars (not logged), each tract counted once, county-cluster bootstrap interval | non-institutional 2020 census tracts with a life expectancy estimate and an ACS median home value above $10,000 (50 states and DC) | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) | 95% CI 0.48 to 0.52 | 76,702 tracts | none (each tract counts once) | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| price_ratio | 19.6 | ratio of dollars per year of life | dollars per year of life at the highest point estimate among the metros divided by that at the lowest point estimate; the interval comes from paired bootstrap replicates that hold those metros fixed, so it understates how far apart the extremes of 39 noisy estimates are | the metros with the highest and the lowest point estimates of dollars per year of life among the 39 metros that pass the size rule | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) | 95% CI 14.1 to 28.7 |   | none (each tract counts once) | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| price_threshold | $100 thousand | thousands of dollars of median home value per year of life | threshold that defines a six-figure year of life | metros in the price-of-a-year comparison | deaths in 2010 to 2015 (USALEEP, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts); home values ACS 2019-2023 (tract medians) |   |   | none (definition) | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| r_eitc_adi | +0.57 | correlation coefficient | county-population-weighted correlation of the county EITC share with the Area Deprivation Index national rank, bootstrap interval over states | counties in the gradient | tax year 2022; Area Deprivation Index 2023 | 95% CI 0.43 to 0.72 | 3,129 counties | county population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| r_top_adi | −0.74 | correlation coefficient | county-population-weighted correlation of the county top-bracket share with the Area Deprivation Index national rank, bootstrap interval over states | counties in the gradient | tax year 2022; Area Deprivation Index 2023 | 95% CI −0.82 to −0.69 | 3,129 counties | county population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| shape_top_q1 | 10.0% | percent of returns with adjusted gross income $200,000 or more | share of all returns in the counties of the group (pooled, so weighted by returns) | returns in the least deprived fifth of counties (fifths of counties by Area Deprivation Index hold equal numbers of counties) | tax year 2022 |   | 625 counties | none (full count of returns) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| shape_top_q5 | 2.3% | percent of returns with adjusted gross income $200,000 or more | share of all returns in the counties of the group (pooled, so weighted by returns) | returns in the most deprived fifth of counties (fifths of counties by Area Deprivation Index hold equal numbers of counties) | tax year 2022 |   | 624 counties | none (full count of returns) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| shape_under25_q1 | 26.7% | percent of returns with adjusted gross income under $25,000 | share of all returns in the counties of the group (pooled, so weighted by returns) | returns in the least deprived fifth of counties (fifths of counties by Area Deprivation Index hold equal numbers of counties) | tax year 2022 |   | 625 counties | none (full count of returns) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| shape_under25_q5 | 37.6% | percent of returns with adjusted gross income under $25,000 | share of all returns in the counties of the group (pooled, so weighted by returns) | returns in the most deprived fifth of counties (fifths of counties by Area Deprivation Index hold equal numbers of counties) | tax year 2022 |   | 624 counties | none (full count of returns) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| top_bracket_line | $200,000 | dollars of adjusted gross income | lower limit of the top adjusted-gross-income bracket (agi_stub 8) of the IRS county file | individual income tax returns | tax year 2022 |   |   | none (definition) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| top_hi | 1.9% | percent of individual returns that report adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more | county-population-weighted mean of the county share of returns, interval from a bootstrap over states | returns in the most deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation Index (tenths hold equal numbers of counties) | tax year 2022 | 95% CI 1.7% to 2.1% | 312 counties | county population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| top_lo | 11.1% | percent of individual returns that report adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more | county-population-weighted mean of the county share of returns, interval from a bootstrap over states | returns in the least deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation Index (tenths hold equal numbers of counties) | tax year 2022 | 95% CI 10.3% to 11.9% | 312 counties | county population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| top_nat | 7.8% | percent of individual returns that report adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more | returns in the top bracket divided by all returns, all counties pooled | all individual income tax returns in the IRS county file | tax year 2022 |   | 158,707,990 returns | none (full count of returns) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |
| wls_top_beta | 0.41 | standard deviations of the county mobility rank per standard deviation of the top-bracket share | standardized coefficient on the top-bracket share alone; coefficient in a county-population-weighted regression of standardized variables, errors clustered on state | counties with an income-tax shape, an Area Deprivation Index and an Opportunity Atlas rank (Connecticut left out) | tax year 2022; mobility for children born 1978 to 1983 | 95% CI 0.33 to 0.50 | 3,116 counties | county population (ACS 2019-2023 tract population summed to the county) | IRS Statistics of Income |   |

## Definitions

- USALEEP: The U.S. Small-area Life Expectancy Estimates Project, a National Center for Health Statistics release of life expectancy at birth for most census tracts. It covers deaths from 2010 to 2015 only and has not been updated.
- EITC: The Earned Income Tax Credit, a refundable federal tax credit for low and moderate income workers. It grows with earnings up to a limit and then phases out.
- HOLC grade: A letter from A to D that the Home Owners' Loan Corporation gave neighborhoods on its 1930s maps, with A labeled best and D hazardous. The maps are known as redlining maps.
- Area Deprivation Index (ADI): A score that ranks neighborhoods by income, education, employment and housing conditions drawn from the American Community Survey. In this book a higher national percentile means a more deprived neighborhood.
- Income rank (kfr): The position that adult children reach in the national distribution of household income, from the lowest rank to the highest, averaged over children who grew up in a place with parents at a stated income level. The Opportunity Atlas labels this measure kfr.
- Fixed effects: A regression adjustment that gives each group, such as each county, its own baseline. The estimate then rests on differences within groups.
- Interquartile range: The distance between the first quartile and the third quartile of a set of values. It describes the spread of the middle of a distribution and is not moved by extreme values.
- Ecological inference: Drawing conclusions about individuals from data about places or groups. A pattern across counties need not hold for the people inside them.

## Methods

This chapter compares places (census tracts and counties), not households, and each comparison has its own sample, weights and interval method, set out below. Life expectancy is for deaths in 2010 to 2015, while home values and the tract measures are from the ACS 2019-2023, so the outcome and the predictor come from different periods. The metro exchange rate covers only metros with many tracts and residents in the sample, the HOLC comparison covers only tracts in graded cities, and the Area Deprivation Index that ranks counties is built partly from income, so some of the income gradient is built in.

### Tracts, life expectancy and home value

Life expectancy is the USALEEP estimate for deaths in 2010 to 2015 on 2020 tracts (area-weighted from 2010 tracts), with institutional tracts, where at least 25 percent of residents live in group quarters, left out.

Each tract is paired with its own ACS 2019-2023 median home value, which the Census Bureau top-codes at $2,000,001; tracts with a value at or below $10,000 are left out, and tracts are weighted by their ACS 2019-2023 population.

Until 2026-10-28 this comparison used ZIP Code Tabulation Areas, each given the population-weighted mean of the tracts whose largest-overlap ZCTA it was, and a ZCTA median home value from a purchased ZIP file whose vintage is not documented. That value's top code of $1,000,001 and the file's population total point to about 2010 to 2014, and the chapter had labeled it ACS 2019-2023.

Twentieths of tracts hold equal numbers of tracts.

Explains Table 1.

### Years per doubling and the metro exchange rate

Years per doubling of home value is the slope of tract life expectancy on the base-2 log of home value, with each tract counted once and weighted by population, from the book's shared routine, with intervals from a bootstrap over counties.

Tracts carry no metro code, so each tract takes the core-based statistical area of its county from the Census 2020 county file; core-based statistical areas are built from whole counties, so this assigns codes and moves no values.

The metro exchange rate is the median of the tracts' median home values divided by the within-metro slope of life expectancy on the natural log of home value, for metros with at least 250 tracts and 1.5 million residents in the sample, with intervals from a bootstrap over tracts within the metro.

Explains Table 1.

### Income shapes and the county ranking

The IRS county file for tax year 2022 gives returns in eight adjusted-gross-income brackets; the EITC share is returns claiming the credit divided by all returns, and the top-bracket share is returns with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more divided by all returns.

Counties are ranked on the Area Deprivation Index (tract ranks averaged with ACS 2019-2023 population weights); tenths and fifths hold equal numbers of counties. Means and correlations are weighted by county population, with intervals from a bootstrap over states.

Mobility regressions use weighted z-scores of the Opportunity Atlas county rank, with errors clustered on state; Connecticut drops out because its planning-region codes do not match the Atlas's counties.

Explains Table 2.

### HOLC grades and tract outcomes

Graded polygons (A to D) are intersected with 2020 tracts in an equal-area projection; a tract with at least 50 percent of its area graded takes the grade covering most of it, and the city of the polygon covering most of it.

Tract outcomes are weighted by ACS 2019-2023 population, with intervals from a bootstrap over counties; the within-city gap uses a weighted regression with a separate baseline for each city.

Explains Table 3.

### Bootstrap settings and city comparisons

The city comparison resamples tracts within a city and grade and treats them as independent.

Bootstrap intervals use 2,000 replicates and seed 12345.

## What these data cannot show

Every comparison in this chapter describes places. A county or a tract is not a person, and a pattern across places need not hold for the people inside them (ecological inference). The residents of a tract differ from movers in income, health and age, and the data cannot separate selection from what an area provides.

The price of a year joins life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015 to home values for 2019 to 2023, so the two describe different years. The life expectancy estimates are modeled for small areas and area-weighted from 2010 to 2020 tracts. A tract median home value rests on few homes and the tract file carries no margins of error, so part of the spread across tracts is sampling error. The dollar figures divide a price level by a slope that is itself estimated with error.

The IRS file covers people who file a return, so the shares are shares of returns and leave out people who do not file. The EITC share depends on eligibility and on whether eligible households claim the credit, and the top-bracket share is a share of returns, not of people. Connecticut is absent from the mobility regressions because its planning-region codes do not match the Atlas's counties.

The grades followed the neighborhoods' housing, incomes and populations in the 1930s, so the staircase today combines what the neighborhoods were with what happened after. The boundary study in the box above finds that the maps themselves mattered for housing outcomes and segregation next to borders, and it does not show that the grades explain today's differences in life expectancy. Tracts are matched to grades by area, and the Atlas ranks are interpolated by area from 2010 tracts. The maps cover the cities that HOLC surveyed, so a city that is absent was not surveyed, which does not mean it had no redlining.

## References

1. Rosen, Sherwin (1974). Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition. Journal of Political Economy 82(1): 34-55. https://doi.org/10.1086/260169
2. Nelson, Robert K.; Winling, LaDale; Marciano, Richard; Connolly, Nathan; et al. (2023). Mapping Inequality: Redlining in New Deal America. American Panorama, ed. Robert K. Nelson and Edward L. Ayers, Digital Scholarship Lab, University of Richmond. https://dsl.richmond.edu/panorama/redlining/
3. Aaronson, Daniel; Hartley, Daniel; Mazumder, Bhashkar (2021). The Effects of the 1930s HOLC "Redlining" Maps. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 13(4): 355-392. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20190414

## Provenance

- Pipeline version: 0.1.0
- Build script: book2/chapters/home-value-income-and-redlining/build.py (sha256 b185acf6f8ec0e994ed1b6d0bf6944d7455fe68c4b6742ea71d4ac0e4bf719e3)
- Built on: 2026-10-28
- Site commit: c2b1ff3309cb4a10833f884da91ac0057a66ad0a

Inputs:

| File | Size (bytes) | SHA-256, first 1 MB | SHA-256, last 1 MB |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- |
| book2/chapters/home-value-income-and-redlining/holc.py | 10,359 | db4be530f82d95b32080517d92937e7574e7866571ece2b6deef7b35c3d3e657 | db4be530f82d95b32080517d92937e7574e7866571ece2b6deef7b35c3d3e657 |
| book2/chapters/home-value-income-and-redlining/income.py | 7,746 | e76c7fb52f42071e405fef69eb0989088e59f921058cd36873857e74f931b425 | e76c7fb52f42071e405fef69eb0989088e59f921058cd36873857e74f931b425 |
| book2/chapters/home-value-income-and-redlining/price.py | 10,564 | 6b34ac5a52ab9b1f9a8dc4b9691e9193a3f90bb43d27fdb1d3c993e4730ccf51 | 6b34ac5a52ab9b1f9a8dc4b9691e9193a3f90bb43d27fdb1d3c993e4730ccf51 |
| data/analytic/tract_atlas.parquet | 39,659,925 | 29d5e4d943552d54aeb6ba92aadc939d9bd15bdea553c78357dbd516757be627 | 1e10d1ecf722340f23ee2212d4999a90250f85b65fa89b39e32db06d9472e22e |
| data/geo/counties_2020.parquet | 123,034,155 | 2fce837cdc2db1f2c229f2ea453c6793338a462770307e2c64e8d1fd713ec663 | dae928bf1042f3d174d2d64d6e3ec923fa3daa40aee1bb4feb104aac2fe3c04a |
| data/geo/dim_geo.parquet | 1,180,921 | 29d5e4d943552d54aeb6ba92aadc939d9bd15bdea553c78357dbd516757be627 | e58c8c488df54ab3187f5461f179322afdc49c9bd2315404003fe1272eea32c3 |
| data/geo/holc_areas_2023.parquet | 4,084,019 | 6d293647278dc82053c0ab89a192836f0763e73aff77785f3f06ad4214102600 | 37dc09e2ca32f1f9a001d07433b85faf4bd0a31ea584c16b62654b6556084be4 |
| data/geo/tracts_2020.parquet | 619,858,391 | f4f05c8c7a63d1785ec2aad283de3f6fa839b6c437f13a1b96cea31d3344bf0f | 7b3811247c6b3e322954f24a4a2384af52aef6ed8688f8dbdb0407d21ef80a59 |
| data/raw/acs/deprivation_components_2019_2023/tract.parquet | 13,197,793 | 5545cde2cbe96a8b56e468d65388248a241aa6bd300d3c9e325d08d3f86b11da | 5c8ec454d066988b0f1a01aaa6ed34ebfc05d162e01cf9c6bb01f9198cbaff12 |
| data/staged/adi/adi_atlas_tract2020_2023.parquet | 798,078 | 5e409bc212ff871def780fa27b4cf8b616d9da420b2b9f6455517eddcd8c1a95 | 5e409bc212ff871def780fa27b4cf8b616d9da420b2b9f6455517eddcd8c1a95 |
| data/staged/health/chr_county_2024.parquet | 8,776,933 | 619795f7ecfec8aff10694b649eaee5e421dbeffbe4be47af4161b51ceefa5cd | c69357f1bcf630407bb9716cb445618838999558c019aaaf77d4681b6bf45c56 |
| data/staged/income/irs_soi_county_2022.parquet | 7,590,532 | 827be995a4744d9198cf6da5afa6c099fe5ae7da5e7e6fc6b2eaa475b17e65f1 | 2e341a6e8456554ed604a4d357031fc08815a16f5bb7b740db85b583aa56b5f1 |
| data/staged/life_expectancy/usaleep_tract2020.parquet | 1,316,169 | 9c9c7f103791b75eddba74e68a89804efdf2486b6b66bb4bc02a46ba5bf8bc23 | 27317107be2465d9fd5e83271dea0cd6e915ee419e2802bedc28747d0a41d38f |
| data/staged/mobility/oa_module1_tract2020.parquet | 16,362,438 | 26cb468a319ad2e727c5eac733b4a47b77a83781ae189e1828e8c40bc0e3ace8 | 5702bad38b81b5ee0b3d01ba9d1ece7d23328985eafba269720a0af5ef6820d4 |
| data/staged/mobility/oa_outcomes_county.parquet | 721,343 | fd7bc55294fbd3f7a646f27083500c1f12415775db7a3607878b522d277f8140 | fd7bc55294fbd3f7a646f27083500c1f12415775db7a3607878b522d277f8140 |
| data/staged/ses/acs5_tract2020_2019_2023.parquet | 7,232,424 | 5fe6f730a35225f14d5d8abfc6b9bce58b52e545f309a7eac74f1dae74d7a31c | 7b4a2475b3852d3f91804716a04566ef8ceadacec2be9fb85f5eb642078efac6 |
| data/staged/svi/svi_tract2020_2022.parquet | 17,740,415 | cb3860d8edc2aaf1f2a02211a58f7a0b80457eb6ad9a37b5ec8abb2d5da9da10 | e371a4a696d5bed05d54ad7c5b6ca2504508805b847ec415c2322be7f66ec2b2 |

Outputs:

| File | SHA-256 |
| --- | --- |
| facts.json | 645c444c9d73b77edbf4beec61af11c593246bb62108e73fcb39246cd02dc514 |
| figures/eitc_vs_top_bracket.json | 5f2d3a2175eef08ee29e9ecb47adf6dcefa80ab64945c2d6c0534ad2bee3e4e9 |
| figures/holc_grade_outcomes.json | ed71dcc8ae93a24982b4f1b513aa6b9bcef0c4bf0ca8a01149f62b28a7d3217d |
| figures/home_value_vs_le.json | a15dc362d0f26e32de82fffd0fafd3ddc10eff442a57b3dc150d7d696b3075c8 |
| meta.json | 4356ada59db3ade078370dbf85fcaab9e13d5aed93bd6e1f75290b151cf570a8 |
| public/data/home-value-income-and-redlining/home_value_scatter.json | ac50c7520da430d4362df1794bde7c8165145d1e1736699d76b59393402e5e8d |
| refs.json | 9f9f46a7d169aa82999a0f1f0ba2c13ae4e0a3d20f7f47da885b1f6a2c1c55bf |

## Machine formats

- Report (HTML): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/home-value-income-and-redlining/report
- Report (Markdown): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/home-value-income-and-redlining/report.md
- Every estimate (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/home-value-income-and-redlining/facts.json
- Table 1, figure "home_value_vs_le" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/home-value-income-and-redlining/figures/home_value_vs_le.json
- Table 2, figure "eitc_vs_top_bracket" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/home-value-income-and-redlining/figures/eitc_vs_top_bracket.json
- Table 3, figure "holc_grade_outcomes" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/home-value-income-and-redlining/figures/holc_grade_outcomes.json
- Payload of "home_value_vs_le" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/data/home-value-income-and-redlining/home_value_scatter.json
- Index of every report: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/llms.txt; all reports in one file: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/llms-full.txt