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Decision AI

    Type to search. Planned chapters match by title only.

    Chapter 1.2

    From evidence to typed questions

    On 5,000 sampled coffee reviews, two decision engines and a general language model rank dissatisfied reviewers with an AUC between 0.979 and 0.983, against 0.968 for a classifier trained on other reviews, and rewording the question changes some answers more than repeating it does.

    Full report: every estimate with its interval, and every figure as a table.

    DraftFigures and numbers may change as the analysis is rebuilt.what is still being checked

    First draft. The labels are star ratings, used as a proxy; no human rated these reviews.

    Bean & Basket, a coffee roaster that sells bagged coffee online, wants to know which of its reviewers are unhappy and why. The firm is illustrative; the reviews come from 2,0822,082 productsEstimanddistinct products in the sampleWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 coffee products sold on Amazon. This chapter poses the judgment as typed questions to two decision engines, Jev and OpenAI's Luna, and to a general language model behind the same interface, on 5,0005,000 reviewsEstimandsample sizeWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 sampled reviews. Every review comes with the reviewer's own star rating, which serves as the check. The chapter takes no business action yet; Chapter 1.3, From probabilities to actions turns the answers into a contact policy.

    On this reading task, Jev ranks unhappy reviews a little better than a word-counting classifier fit to the full labeled sample, 0.9800.980 area under the ROC curveEstimandweighted AUC for dissatisfied (one or two stars)Interval95% CI 0.978 to 0.982n5,000 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 against 0.9680.968 area under the ROC curveEstimandweighted AUC for dissatisfied (one or two stars)Interval95% CI 0.964 to 0.972n5,000 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 on a ranking score explained below, and well above the same classifier fit to a thousanda thousand labeled reviewsEstimandtraining size in the small-sample refitWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 labels (0.9280.928 area under the ROC curveEstimandmean AUC over refits on 1,000 labeled reviewsn5,000 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023). So an endpoint is a strong candidate when a firm has few labels of its own. Star ratings are only a stand-in for dissatisfaction, and the issue answers have no label to check them against.

    The decision
    Owner and actions
    The roaster's customer-insight team decides what to ask about each review and owns the wording.
    Evidence at decision time
    The review's title and text.
    Simplest alternative
    A keyword rule, or a TF-IDF classifier trained on reviews of other coffee products.
    What establishes correctness
    The reviewer's star rating: one or two stars counts as dissatisfied. The issue question has no label.
    When the model is wrong or cannot decide
    A misread review sends the wrong signal to product and care teams; an engine error leaves the review unread.
    Does the policy pay
    Here, only a comparison of accuracy, cost per review and delay; prices come in the next chapter.

    The data and what counts as correct

    The reviews come from Amazon Reviews 2023, restricted to coffee products in the Grocery and Gourmet Food category. The sample holds the same number of reviews for each star rating, so that rare one- and two-star reviews are well represented, and each review carries a sample weightSample weightA number attached to each sampled item so that weighted results describe the population the sample was drawn from rather than the sample's own mix. that restores the star mix of the 1,428,8671,428,867 reviewsEstimandcoffee reviews the sample stands forWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 coffee reviews it was drawn from. Weighted that way, 14.2%14.2% share of reviews with one or two starsEstimandweighted shareWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 of coffee reviews have one or two stars.

    The star rating is a proxy. A reviewer can give three stars and still complain bitterly, and a one-star review can be about a late delivery. The chapter uses the rating because it exists for every review without anyone reading them, and it shows below where the proxy and the engines part ways.

    Questions as asked

    Each engine received the review's title and text and three typed questions: a yes-or-no question, a score on a five-level rubric and a choice among named problems.

    const questions = {
      dissatisfied: { type: 'boolean',
        instructions: 'Is the reviewer dissatisfied with this coffee overall?' },
      stars: { type: 'score',
        instructions: 'Which rating level best matches this review?',
        criteria: ['Lowest level: very negative, would not buy again',
          'Mostly negative', 'Mixed or neutral', 'Mostly positive',
          'Highest level: very positive, would recommend'] },
      issue: { type: 'choice',
        instructions: 'What is the main problem the reviewer raises, if any?',
        criteria: { taste: 'Flavor, bitterness, freshness',
          roast_grind: 'Roast level or grind not as expected',
          packaging: 'Damaged, leaking or unsealed package',
          shipping: 'Late, lost or wrong item', price: 'Price or value',
          caffeine: 'Caffeine content or effect', none: 'No problem raised' } },
    };
    

    A decision engine answers with more than a label. For the yes-or-no question it returns a probability. For the choice it returns a probability for every option. For the rubric it returns a probability for every level and a score that averages the level positions by those probabilities, so a score can fall between two levels. Jev's star score falls clearly between two whole levels for 24.5%24.5% share of reviewsEstimandJev score at least a quarter star from a whole numberWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 of reviews. The Haiku adapter is a general language model behind the same interface; it returns a single answer and a prompted estimate of the probability, with no distribution behind it.

    Answer

    Each engine returns a distribution as well as an answer

    Answers to three typed questions for ten sampled coffee reviews, October 2026

    No taste! Hardly any taste and very weak even when I use more coffee and set my coffee maker to intense flavor. Does not taste like hazelnut at all just weak regular coffee
    0.911 (index 0)
    0.092 (index 1)
    0.003 (index 2)
    0.004 (index 3)
    0.005 (index 4)
    • Very negative
    • Mostly negative
    • Mixed or neutral
    • Mostly positive
    • Very positive

    Observed label: 1 star.

    Jev 1.14.0 scored stars at 0.09 on the zero-based index scale (0 to 4), which is 1.09 stars on the rubric scale (1 to 5). The most probable level is 1 star (P = 0.91).

    Show data
    Data for Each engine returns a distribution as well as an answer: Review 1 (1 star), stars
    EngineStatusAnswer (stars)P(selected) or P(true)Score, index scaleDistributionProvider confidence statisticPrompted estimateObserved label
    Jev 1.14.0ok1.09n/a0.091: 0.91; 2: 0.09; 3: 0.00; 4: 0.00; 5: 0.00n/ano1
    OpenAI Lunaok1.24n/a0.241: 0.76; 2: 0.24; 3: 0.00; 4: 0.00; 5: 0.00n/ano1
    Claude Haiku adapterok1.50n/a0.50n/an/ayes1
    Pick a review and a question; the bars show how each engine spread its probability.Source: Amazon Reviews 2023, coffee products; ten reviews chosen at random, two per star rating

    How the engines compare with a trained classifier

    Start with the yes-or-no question. Jev, Luna, the language model and a TF-IDF classifier that counts words and word pairs and was trained on reviews of other coffee products, sort unhappy reviews from happy ones well. The useful lesson is in the small differences between them.

    Figure 1

    Jev, Luna and a general language model all rank dissatisfied reviews a little better than a classifier trained on other coffee reviews

    AUC for dissatisfied (one or two stars), log loss and the gain in AUC over the classifier, sampled coffee reviews, weighted

    • Decision engine
    • General language model
    • Trained classifier
    Show data
    Data for Jev, Luna and a general language model all rank dissatisfied reviews a little better than a classifier trained on other coffee reviews, Ranking (AUC)
    EngineMeasureEstimateLowerUpper
    Jev 1.14.0auc0.9800.9780.983
    OpenAI Lunaauc0.9790.9760.982
    Claude Haiku adapterauc0.9830.9800.985
    TF-IDF + logisticauc0.9680.9640.972
    Read the first view for ranking: every dot sits close to the right edge, and the classifier sits a little to the left of the engines. The second view shows each engine's gain over the classifier, with intervals that stay above zero. The third view scores the probabilities themselves, and there the classifier comes out ahead. Whiskers are 95% intervals from a bootstrap that resamples products.Source: Amazon Reviews 2023, coffee products; 5,000 sampled reviews, weighted; engine calls October 2026

    The first view scores ranking with AUCAUCArea under the ROC curve: the chance that a randomly chosen positive record gets a higher score than a randomly chosen negative one. It measures ranking, not calibration.: the chance that a randomly chosen unhappy review gets a higher probability than a randomly chosen happy one. Jev reaches 0.9800.980 area under the ROC curveEstimandweighted AUC for dissatisfied (one or two stars)Interval95% CI 0.978 to 0.982n5,000 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 and the classifier 0.9680.968 area under the ROC curveEstimandweighted AUC for dissatisfied (one or two stars)Interval95% CI 0.964 to 0.972n5,000 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023, so the engines rank better with no local fitting on these labels. Switch to the log loss view and the classifier moves ahead of Jev and Luna. Log loss also asks whether the probabilities themselves are right, and the classifier was calibrated on reviews like these. Chapter 1.3, From probabilities to actions shows what that costs once a probability sets a cutoff.

    A keyword rule that flags reviews containing words such as "stale", "disappointed" or "refund" is the cheapest alternative of all. It catches 46.1%46.1% share of dissatisfied reviews the rule flagsEstimandweighted recallWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 of dissatisfied reviews, and 39.4%39.4% share of flagged reviews that are dissatisfiedEstimandweighted precisionWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 of the reviews it flags are dissatisfied.

    The Haiku adapter, a general language model, ranks reviews slightly better than Jev, by +0.0024 (95% CI 0.0012 to 0.0037)+0.0024 difference in AUCEstimandgeneral language model minus JevInterval95% CI 0.0012 to 0.0037n5,000 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023. These results show no advantage for a specialized endpoint over a language model on this task.

    The classifier needed labeled training reviews and a calibration step, and each prediction then costs close to nothing on a laptop. The engines needed neither, but every call costs money and time.

    Engine frontier

    The decision engines rank dissatisfied reviews better than a classifier, at a cost per review

    Weighted AUC for dissatisfied (one or two stars) against US dollars per 1,000 reviews, October 2026

    • Decision engine
    • Classical baseline
    • Rule

    AUC, dissatisfied (whiskers: 95% interval)

    0.940.950.960.970.980.991.001.01$0.00$0.02$0.04$0.06$0.08$0.10$0.12$0.14

    Cost per 1,000 items (USD, instruction tokens included)

    * No other point has both lower cost and higher AUC, dissatisfied. The dashed line joins these points.

    Highest AUC, dissatisfied: Claude Haiku adapter (decision engine): AUC, dissatisfied 0.983 (95% interval 0.980 to 0.985), $0.12 per 1,000 items, latency p50 893 ms and p95 1,285 ms from one machine, n = 5,000. Lowest cost: TF-IDF + logistic at $0 per 1,000 items. On cost and quality together, no other point beats Jev 1.14.0, Claude Haiku adapter, TF-IDF + logistic.

    Show data
    Data for The decision engines rank dissatisfied reviews better than a classifier, at a cost per review
    Engine or methodKindAUC, dissatisfiedLower 95%Upper 95%Cost per 1,000 items (USD)Latency p50 (ms)Latency p95 (ms)RegionnRefusals (%)Errors (%)
    Jev 1.14.0Decision engine0.9800.9780.982$0.023123204one machine5,000n/a0.0
    OpenAI LunaDecision engine0.9790.9760.982$0.053259526one machine5,000n/a0.1
    Claude Haiku adapterDecision engine0.9830.9800.985$0.128931,285one machine5,000n/a0.0
    TF-IDF + logisticClassical baseline0.9680.9640.972$0n/an/alocal5,000n/an/a
    Points further up rank dissatisfied reviews above satisfied ones more often; points further right cost more. Whiskers are 95% intervals from a product-level bootstrap.Source: Amazon Reviews 2023, coffee products; 5,000 sampled reviews, weighted; engine calls October 2026

    Figure 2

    Jev is the cheapest of the three models per review

    Mean billed cost per thousand reviews and median latency per call, by engine, October 2026

    Show data
    Data for Jev is the cheapest of the three models per review, Cost
    enginemeasurenvalue
    Jev 1.14.0cost5,0000.023
    OpenAI Lunacost5,0000.053
    Claude Haiku adaptercost5,0000.124
    Compare the dots: Jev costs least and the Claude Haiku adapter most. The second view shows how long a call takes. Errors were rare: 0.0% of Jev's calls failed, 0.1% of Luna's and 0.0% of the adapter's.Note: Cost is the mean billed cost at list price and latency the median of the calls made from one machine; neither carries an interval.Source: Amazon Reviews 2023, coffee products; 5,000 sampled reviews, weighted; engine calls October 2026

    The rubric question gives a second check. Each engine's star score lands near the reviewer's own rating, off by about 0.40.37 starsEstimandweighted mean absolute error of the score against the ratingInterval95% CI 0.35 to 0.40n5,000 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 stars on average for Jev, and the three models are close to one another.

    Figure 3

    The three models' star scores miss the reviewer's rating by similar amounts

    Mean absolute error of the star score and the share of reviews whose most likely level equals the rating, sampled coffee reviews, weighted

    Show data
    Data for The three models' star scores miss the reviewer's rating by similar amounts, Average miss
    conf_highconf_lowengineestimatemetricn
    0.3970.353Jev 1.14.00.374mae5,000
    0.4180.374OpenAI Luna0.395mae4,997
    0.4270.384Claude Haiku adapter0.405mae5,000
    The dots sit close together and their whiskers overlap. The second view counts exact matches between the engine's most likely level and the rating. Whiskers are 95% intervals from a bootstrap that resamples products.Source: Amazon Reviews 2023, coffee products; 5,000 sampled reviews, weighted; engine calls October 2026

    Training a classifier or asking an endpoint

    The choice between these two routes runs through the rest of the booklet, and neither wins everywhere. The classifier here means TF-IDF with logistic regression, one simple kind of supervised model, and these cases do not speak for every method.

    A classifier you trainA decision endpoint you ask
    Defining the taskPick a target, collect past labels, fit a modelWrite the evidence, typed questions, options and rubrics
    Labels you needEnough to fit and calibrateNone to get a first answer; some to check and tune how you use it
    Changing the taskA new target needs new labels and a new fitEdit the question, then check it again, because it is now a different system
    Trusting its probabilitiesDepends on the labels and the populationMust be checked against your population; a returned distribution is not proof of calibration
    Ongoing workRun a pipeline and watch for driftMaintain questions, provider access and version records, and watch for drift
    Costs to countLabeling, fitting, maintenance, servingIntegration, checking, calls, retries, maintenance
    Shown in these casesStronger money-back prediction, product agreement level with Jev on the actual complaint mixBetter review ranking with no labels, higher contact value once recalibrated

    What labels buy the classifier

    The classifier above trained on 20,00020,000 labeled reviewsEstimandclassifier training sampleWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 labeled reviews, which many firms do not have. To see what labels buy, the classifier was refit on smaller random subsets of those reviews and each fit was scored as a contact policy, using the costs that Chapter 1.3, From probabilities to actions derives.

    Figure 4

    The review classifier needs thousands of labels to approach what Jev earns with none

    Net value of the contact policy per thousand reviews against labeled reviews used to train the classifier, weighted

    Show data
    Data for The review classifier needs thousands of labels to approach what Jev earns with none
    conf_highconf_lowlabelsnet
    3009050 labels1772
    32040100 labels2224
    37582882200 labels3307
    41913684500 labels4022
    455942081,000 labels4466
    467343312,000 labels4551
    487747315,000 labels4816
    4986490610,000 labels4944
    5058503620,000 labels5047
    Read down the rows: each dot is the mean of refits on that many labeled reviews, and its whisker runs from the lowest to the highest refit, which is not a confidence interval. Each count includes the fifth held out for calibration. The vertical line is Jev, which trained on none of them. Costs are the next chapter's assumptions, and checking Jev on any review set still needs some labels.Source: Amazon Reviews 2023, coffee products; 5,000 sampled reviews, weighted; ten refits per size, three at the largest; engine calls October 2026; assumed costs

    Each label count covers everything the classifier used: some of those labels go to calibration and the rest to fitting, and none comes from the reviews it is scored on. Raw Jev is the reference with no local fitting, which does not mean no labels at all, because checking or recalibrating it takes some. These numbers describe this classifier, sampled and fit this way. Another product, target or class mix could move them, so treat them as a guide for a pilot and not as the labels any firm needs.

    The classifier earns $3,300$3,307 US dollars per 1,000 reviewsEstimandmean net value over refits on 200 labeled reviews, at assumed contact costsn5,000 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 with two hundred labels, $4,500$4,466 US dollars per 1,000 reviewsEstimandmean net value over refits on 1,000 labeled reviews, at assumed contact costsn5,000 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 with a thousand and $4,800$4,816 US dollars per 1,000 reviewsEstimandmean net value over refits on 5,000 labeled reviews, at assumed contact costsn5,000 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 with five thousand. It reaches about what Jev earns only near the full sample, at $5,000$5,047 US dollars per 1,000 reviewsEstimandmean net value over refits on 20,000 labeled reviews, at assumed contact costsn5,000 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023. Labels still have a job on the endpoint's side: the next chapter shows that a modest labeled sample is what fixes Jev's probabilities near the cutoff.

    The wording of a question is part of the policy

    A question spec is a small piece of policy, and editing it changes answers. A random subset of the sample went to Jev and Luna with one edit at a time, asked as a single question. The same subset was also sent the unedited question on its own in two separate calls, so that each edit can be compared with the change between two identical calls.

    Figure 5

    Removing the no-problem option changes most issue answers, while rewording or reordering changes only a few

    Percent of reviews whose answer differs from the original question, after one change and after asking the same question again, Jev and Luna, weighted

    • Same question asked again
    • After the change
    Show data
    Data for Removing the no-problem option changes most issue answers, while rewording or reordering changes only a few, All three changes
    againagain_hiagain_lochangechangedchanged_hichanged_loenginen_againn_changedsize
    0.2200.4000.070Reworded question2.493.951.38Jev 1.14.01,0001,000small
    0n/an/aReworded question1.692.661.03OpenAI Luna999999small
    0.3900.6700.150Issue options reversed1.863.010.930Jev 1.14.01,0001,000small
    0n/an/aIssue options reversed2.983.692.29OpenAI Luna1,0001,000small
    0.3900.6700.150No-problem option removed67.3670.5963.89Jev 1.14.01,0001,000large
    0n/an/aNo-problem option removed69.6172.8266.14OpenAI Luna1,000988large
    Each row joins two shares. The open dot is the share of answers that change when the same question is simply asked again; the filled dot is the share that change after the edit. The second view zooms in on the two small edits. Whiskers are 95% intervals from a bootstrap that resamples products.Source: Amazon Reviews 2023, coffee products; 1,000 reviews drawn at random from the sample, weighted; engine calls October 2026

    Rewording the question changes 2.5%2.5% percent of reviewsEstimandanswer differs between the two versions of the questionInterval95% CI 1.4% to 3.9%n1,000 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population1,000 reviews drawn at random from the samplePeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 of Jev's answers and reversing the options changes 1.9%1.9% percent of reviewsEstimandanswer differs between the two versions of the questionInterval95% CI 0.9% to 3.0%n1,000 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population1,000 reviews drawn at random from the samplePeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023, against 0.2%0.2% percent of reviewsEstimandanswer differs between two identical callsInterval95% CI 0.1% to 0.4%n1,000 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population1,000 reviews drawn at random from the samplePeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 and 0.4%0.4% percent of reviewsEstimandanswer differs between two identical callsInterval95% CI 0.1% to 0.7%n1,000 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population1,000 reviews drawn at random from the samplePeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 between identical calls. Removing the "no problem raised" option looks larger, at 67%67.4% percent of reviewsEstimandanswer differs between the two versions of the questionInterval95% CI 63.9% to 70.6%n1,000 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population1,000 reviews drawn at random from the samplePeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023, but that is almost entirely forced: Jev chose that option for 67%67.1% percent of reviewsEstimandJev answers no problem raisedn1,000 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population1,000 reviews drawn at random from the samplePeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 of these reviews, and those answers must change once it is gone. Among reviews where Jev named a problem, only 0.9%0.9% percent of reviewsEstimandanswer differs, among reviews where Jev named a problem with the option presentn682 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population1,000 reviews drawn at random from the samplePeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 of answers change. Jev and Luna choose the same issue for 94.1%94.1% share of reviewsEstimandJev and Luna choose the same issueWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 of reviews, and for 81.4%81.4% share of reviewsEstimandJev and Luna choose the same issue, among reviews where at least one names a problemn3,412 reviewsWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 of those where at least one of them names a problem.

    The three panels below let you inspect the reviews behind each edit.

    Variants: question wording

    Rewording the dissatisfied question changes a few of Jev's answers, more than asking again does

    Share of 1,000 sampled reviews whose answer changes, weighted, October 2026

    Baseline: Is the reviewer dissatisfied with this coffee overall?. Question: dissatisfied, Jev 1.14.0.

    Is this reviewer unhappy with the coffee they bought? (selected)2.5% (1.4%–3.9%) 42 of 1,000 items

    Axis 0% to 10% of items. Dashed rule and shaded band: repeat-run spread and its interval.

    Question wording: under "Is this reviewer unhappy with the coffee they bought?", 2.5% of 1,000 items (95% interval 1.4% to 3.9%) get a different dissatisfied answer than under "Is the reviewer dissatisfied with this coffee overall?" (Jev 1.14.0), against 0.2% between 2 identical repeat calls on 1,000 items. The interval sits above the repeat-run spread.

    Show data
    Data for Rewording the dissatisfied question changes a few of Jev's answers, more than asking again does: change shares
    VariantItems comparedItems changed (unweighted)Weighted change share (%)Lower 95% (%)Upper 95% (%)Refusal or error
    Is this reviewer unhappy with the coffee they bought?1,000422.51.43.90
    Show data
    Data for Rewording the dissatisfied question changes a few of Jev's answers, more than asking again does: answers under Is this reviewer unhappy with the coffee they bought?
    Answer under Is the reviewer dissatisfied with this coffee overall?Answer under Is this reviewer unhappy with the coffee they bought?Items (unweighted)Unchanged
    DissatisfiedDissatisfied513yes
    Not dissatisfiedNot dissatisfied445yes
    Not dissatisfiedDissatisfied25no
    DissatisfiedNot dissatisfied17no
    Compare the change share with the share that changes between two identical calls.Source: Amazon Reviews 2023, coffee products; 1,000 reviews drawn at random from the sample; weighted

    Variants: option order

    Reversing the issue options changes a few of Jev's choices, more than asking again does

    Share of 1,000 sampled reviews whose answer changes, weighted, October 2026

    Baseline: Options in the original order. Question: issue, Jev 1.14.0.

    Options in reverse order (selected)1.9% (0.9%–3.0%) 33 of 1,000 items

    Axis 0% to 10% of items. Dashed rule and shaded band: repeat-run spread and its interval.

    Option order: under "Options in reverse order", 1.9% of 1,000 items (95% interval 0.9% to 3.0%) get a different issue answer than under "Options in the original order" (Jev 1.14.0), against 0.4% between 2 identical repeat calls on 1,000 items. The interval sits above the repeat-run spread.

    Show data
    Data for Reversing the issue options changes a few of Jev's choices, more than asking again does: change shares
    VariantItems comparedItems changed (unweighted)Weighted change share (%)Lower 95% (%)Upper 95% (%)Refusal or error
    Options in reverse order1,000331.90.93.00
    Show data
    Data for Reversing the issue options changes a few of Jev's choices, more than asking again does: answers under Options in reverse order
    Answer under Options in the original orderAnswer under Options in reverse orderItems (unweighted)Unchanged
    TasteTaste429yes
    No problemNo problem314yes
    PackagingPackaging79yes
    PricePrice58yes
    Roast or grindRoast or grind41yes
    ShippingShipping26yes
    CaffeineCaffeine20yes
    CaffeineTaste9no
    TasteNo problem4no
    CaffeineNo problem2no
    CaffeinePrice2no
    No problemRoast or grind2no
    PackagingNo problem2no
    PriceTaste2no
    Roast or grindTaste2no
    ShippingTaste2no
    No problemShipping1no
    No problemTaste1no
    PackagingRoast or grind1no
    PriceNo problem1no
    ShippingRoast or grind1no
    TasteRoast or grind1no
    Compare the change share with the share that changes between two identical calls.Source: Amazon Reviews 2023, coffee products; 1,000 reviews drawn at random from the sample; weighted

    Variants: escape option

    Removing the no-problem option forces a new answer on reviews that raised no problem and leaves the others almost unchanged

    Share of 1,000 sampled reviews whose answer changes, weighted, October 2026

    Baseline: With a no-problem option. Question: issue, Jev 1.14.0.

    Without a no-problem option (selected)67.4% (63.9%–70.6%) 325 of 1,000 items

    Axis 0% to 85% of items. Dashed rule and shaded band: repeat-run spread and its interval.

    Escape option: under "Without a no-problem option", 67.4% of 1,000 items (95% interval 63.9% to 70.6%) get a different issue answer than under "With a no-problem option" (Jev 1.14.0), against 0.4% between 2 identical repeat calls on 1,000 items. The interval sits above the repeat-run spread.

    Show data
    Data for Removing the no-problem option forces a new answer on reviews that raised no problem and leaves the others almost unchanged: change shares
    VariantItems comparedItems changed (unweighted)Weighted change share (%)Lower 95% (%)Upper 95% (%)Refusal or error
    Without a no-problem option1,00032567.463.970.60
    Show data
    Data for Removing the no-problem option forces a new answer on reviews that raised no problem and leaves the others almost unchanged: answers under Without a no-problem option
    Answer under With a no-problem optionAnswer under Without a no-problem optionItems (unweighted)Unchanged
    TasteTaste432yes
    No problemTaste236no
    PackagingPackaging82yes
    PricePrice61yes
    Roast or grindRoast or grind41yes
    No problemPrice40no
    CaffeineCaffeine32yes
    ShippingShipping27yes
    No problemCaffeine16no
    No problemPackaging12no
    No problemShipping8no
    No problemRoast or grind6no
    CaffeinePrice1no
    Roast or grindCaffeine1no
    Roast or grindTaste1no
    ShippingPrice1no
    ShippingTaste1no
    TasteRoast or grind1no
    TasteShipping1no
    Compare the change share with the share that changes between two identical calls.Source: Amazon Reviews 2023, coffee products; 1,000 reviews drawn at random from the sample; weighted

    Where the engine and the rating disagree

    Jev gives a probability of dissatisfaction near one to some four- and five-star reviews, and near zero to some one-star reviews; together these confident disagreements make up 0.2%0.2% share of reviewsEstimandJev P(dissatisfied) at least 0.9 on four or five stars, or at most 0.05 on one starWeightsweighted to the star mix of the coffee reviews (sample_weight)Population5,000 sampled coffee reviews in Amazon Reviews 2023, Grocery and Gourmet FoodPeriodreviews written 2006 to 2023; engines called October 2026SourceAmazon Reviews 2023 of reviews. Reading them is the fastest way to learn what the label measures. Some are the engine's mistakes. Others are reviewers who wrote a complaint and gave five stars anyway, or gave one star for a reason the question does not ask about.

    Rule on a disagreement

    Some confident disagreements with the star rating are the rating's mistake

    Reviews where Jev's probability and the star rating point in opposite directions, October 2026

    Item 1 of 8

    Review 1

    Flavorless. I think I might have gotten a stale batch. These barely have any scent or flavor to them like they were roasted more than a month ago.

    Question: Is the reviewer dissatisfied with this coffee overall?

    Is the reviewer dissatisfied with this coffee overall?
    Choose an option to enable the reveal.

    Review 1: make your ruling first. The answers appear after you choose one of 2 options and reveal.

    The data table for this item appears after your ruling.

    Decide first, then reveal the engine's answer and the rating.Source: Amazon Reviews 2023, coffee products; reviews drawn at random from the confident disagreements

    What these data cannot show

    The label is the reviewer's star rating, which measures how the reviewer scored the purchase and not always whether they were dissatisfied with the coffee. The issue question has no label at all, so the chapter can show that engines disagree about issues but not which one is right. The reviews come from people who chose to write one, so the results describe written reviews and not all customers. Costs and latencies are from one set of calls from one machine in October 2026, and engines change under the same name.


    Data sources

    • Amazon Reviews 20235,000 coffee reviews, a sample stratified by star rating, and reviews of other coffee products for training the classifierWeights: sample_weight restores the star mix of the coffee reviews · License: No license stated; the booklet shows aggregates and short excerpts only

    All data sources

    Methods

    Each sampled review went to two decision engines and a general language model with the same three typed questions, and to a classifier trained on reviews of other coffee products. Answers are compared with the reviewer's own star rating.

    The sample

    The eval sample holds the same number of reviews for each star rating, drawn with a fixed seed from the coffee reviews. Weights restore the star mix of all coffee reviews, so a share in the text describes that population rather than the balanced sample.

    Variants and repeats

    A random subset of the sample was sent again with one change to the question: a reworded dissatisfied question, the issue options in reverse order, and the issue question without its no-problem option. The same subset was also sent a second time with the original question, so a change from rewording can be compared with the change from simply asking again.

    Intervals

    Intervals are 95% bootstrap intervals that resample products within star strata, with the same resamples for every engine, so the interval on a difference reflects the pairing.

    How to cite

    @misc{singh2026fromevidencetotypedquestions,
      author = {Singh, Vishal},
      title = {From evidence to typed questions},
      year = {2026},
      url = {https://vishalsingh.org/decisionai/from-evidence-to-typed-questions},
      note = {In Decision AI. Published 29 October 2026.}
    }