{
  "alt": "Heatmap of four Census regions by four deprivation quartiles, showing the pooled percent change in births from 2018 to 2024. Every cell in the most deprived column is negative. In the South row the three less deprived cells are near zero and faded, while cells for the West, Midwest and Northeast are mostly negative.",
  "caption": "Cells toward the low end of the key lost births, and faded cells have an interval that includes zero. Cells with fewer than {fact:thin_cell_limit} counties show no interval. The cells in the most deprived column that show an interval lie below zero, and in the South row the three less deprived cells are faded. The tooltip gives the number of counties in each cell and the data table the number that lost births.",
  "data": [
    {
      "births_2018": 338526,
      "change": -4.36,
      "conf_high": 0.12,
      "conf_low": -7.66,
      "n_lost_births": 24,
      "n_units": 39,
      "quartile": "Least deprived quartile",
      "region": "Northeast"
    },
    {
      "births_2018": 76401,
      "change": -1.99,
      "conf_high": -0.06,
      "conf_low": -3.67,
      "n_lost_births": 16,
      "n_units": 25,
      "quartile": "Second quartile",
      "region": "Northeast"
    },
    {
      "births_2018": 96145,
      "change": -7.73,
      "conf_high": -4.41,
      "conf_low": -9.89,
      "n_lost_births": 20,
      "n_units": 24,
      "quartile": "Third quartile",
      "region": "Northeast"
    },
    {
      "births_2018": 48096,
      "change": -9.26,
      "conf_high": -6.59,
      "conf_low": -11.84,
      "n_lost_births": 21,
      "n_units": 22,
      "quartile": "Most deprived quartile",
      "region": "Northeast"
    },
    {
      "births_2018": 52620,
      "change": -5.68,
      "conf_high": null,
      "conf_low": null,
      "n_lost_births": 6,
      "n_units": 9,
      "quartile": "Least deprived quartile",
      "region": "Midwest"
    },
    {
      "births_2018": 158400,
      "change": -10.63,
      "conf_high": -4.34,
      "conf_low": -14.08,
      "n_lost_births": 19,
      "n_units": 26,
      "quartile": "Second quartile",
      "region": "Midwest"
    },
    {
      "births_2018": 156974,
      "change": -6.13,
      "conf_high": -4.79,
      "conf_low": -7.5,
      "n_lost_births": 46,
      "n_units": 49,
      "quartile": "Third quartile",
      "region": "Midwest"
    },
    {
      "births_2018": 189123,
      "change": -9.2,
      "conf_high": -6.26,
      "conf_low": -11.6,
      "n_lost_births": 44,
      "n_units": 53,
      "quartile": "Most deprived quartile",
      "region": "Midwest"
    },
    {
      "births_2018": 183903,
      "change": 2.15,
      "conf_high": 8.71,
      "conf_low": -4.06,
      "n_lost_births": 17,
      "n_units": 35,
      "quartile": "Least deprived quartile",
      "region": "South"
    },
    {
      "births_2018": 371925,
      "change": 1.3,
      "conf_high": 4.59,
      "conf_low": -1.59,
      "n_lost_births": 25,
      "n_units": 69,
      "quartile": "Second quartile",
      "region": "South"
    },
    {
      "births_2018": 335404,
      "change": 0.34,
      "conf_high": 3.71,
      "conf_low": -1.79,
      "n_lost_births": 23,
      "n_units": 63,
      "quartile": "Third quartile",
      "region": "South"
    },
    {
      "births_2018": 208110,
      "change": -5.02,
      "conf_high": -2.92,
      "conf_low": -6.95,
      "n_lost_births": 43,
      "n_units": 65,
      "quartile": "Most deprived quartile",
      "region": "South"
    },
    {
      "births_2018": 649785,
      "change": -8.37,
      "conf_high": -4.74,
      "conf_low": -11.55,
      "n_lost_births": 46,
      "n_units": 61,
      "quartile": "Least deprived quartile",
      "region": "West"
    },
    {
      "births_2018": 103938,
      "change": -4.51,
      "conf_high": 1.79,
      "conf_low": -7.96,
      "n_lost_births": 17,
      "n_units": 25,
      "quartile": "Second quartile",
      "region": "West"
    },
    {
      "births_2018": 41663,
      "change": -9.28,
      "conf_high": null,
      "conf_low": null,
      "n_lost_births": 8,
      "n_units": 8,
      "quartile": "Third quartile",
      "region": "West"
    },
    {
      "births_2018": 9800,
      "change": -9.27,
      "conf_high": null,
      "conf_low": null,
      "n_lost_births": 5,
      "n_units": 5,
      "quartile": "Most deprived quartile",
      "region": "West"
    }
  ],
  "id": "births_change_region_quartile",
  "notes": [
    "The named counties are the {fact:counties_used} that CDC WONDER natality identifies in every year from 2018 to 2024: counties with {fact:wonder_threshold} or more residents in the population vintage WONDER uses, which is earlier than the 2020 Census. WONDER pools the births of every other county in a state into one row, so those counties are not in the named counties.",
    "A tract's Area Deprivation Index national rank (1 is least deprived, 100 most) is the unweighted mean of the ranks of its block groups. A county's deprivation rank is the mean of its tracts' ranks weighted by 2019-2023 tract population. Quartiles hold equal numbers of the named counties, so the most deprived quartile is relative to large counties and not to the nation. The index is a measure of neighborhoods, averaged to counties.",
    "Intervals are 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties (replicates and seed in the methods note). Births are full counts, so an interval shows how much a pooled figure depends on which counties are in the group, not sampling error in the counts. A cell with fewer than {fact:thin_cell_limit} counties shows no interval; in the West, the most deprived and third quartiles hold few counties, and the least deprived quartile of the Midwest holds fewer than {fact:thin_cell_limit}, so those cells are thin.",
    "The Census South region is {fact:south_states} states and DC; the Northeast, Midwest and West follow the Census Bureau's regions."
  ],
  "source": "CDC WONDER natality, births in 2018-2024; full counts of births; counties grouped by Area Deprivation Index 2023 with ACS 2019-2023 tract population (population-weighted); pooled over counties by births (births-weighted); intervals from a bootstrap over counties",
  "spec": {
    "col": "quartile",
    "colOrder": [
      "Least deprived quartile",
      "Second quartile",
      "Third quartile",
      "Most deprived quartile"
    ],
    "fadeUncertain": true,
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n_units",
    "row": "region",
    "rowOrder": [
      "Northeast",
      "Midwest",
      "South",
      "West"
    ],
    "scale": {
      "domain": [
        -12,
        0,
        12
      ],
      "type": "diverging"
    },
    "showValues": true,
    "value": "change",
    "valueFormat": {
      "digits": 1,
      "signed": true,
      "suffix": "%"
    }
  },
  "subtitle": "Pooled change in live births from 2018 to 2024 by Census region and quartile of county deprivation rank, named counties, with 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties",
  "title": "The most deprived quartile of counties lost births in every Census region, and in the South the other three quartiles show no clear loss",
  "type": "heatmap",
  "width": "wide"
}