{
  "alt": "Line chart of four lines, one for each quartile of county deprivation, showing births indexed to 2018 from 2018 to 2024. All of the lines end below the 2018 level. All four lines fall to 2020. In 2021 the lines for the other three quartiles rise while the line for the most deprived quartile stays level, and the bands around the lines for the least deprived and second quartiles are wider than the bands around the other two.",
  "caption": "Every line ends below the 2018 level. In 2021 the lines for the other three quartiles rise while the line for the most deprived quartile does not, and the differences between them and the most deprived quartile have intervals above zero. Each line is the pooled births of the counties in a quartile divided by the same counties' 2018 births. Bands show how much a quartile's pooled change depends on which counties it holds.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": null,
      "conf_low": null,
      "index": 100,
      "n": 1224834,
      "quartile": "Least deprived quartile",
      "year": 2018
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 99,
      "conf_low": 98.12,
      "index": 98.51,
      "n": 1206641,
      "quartile": "Least deprived quartile",
      "year": 2019
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 95.57,
      "conf_low": 93.1,
      "index": 94.28,
      "n": 1154721,
      "quartile": "Least deprived quartile",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 97.84,
      "conf_low": 93.85,
      "index": 95.77,
      "n": 1173023,
      "quartile": "Least deprived quartile",
      "year": 2021
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 97.77,
      "conf_low": 93.6,
      "index": 95.59,
      "n": 1170851,
      "quartile": "Least deprived quartile",
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 95.57,
      "conf_low": 90.73,
      "index": 93.09,
      "n": 1140185,
      "quartile": "Least deprived quartile",
      "year": 2023
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 97.19,
      "conf_low": 91.77,
      "index": 94.43,
      "n": 1156626,
      "quartile": "Least deprived quartile",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": null,
      "conf_low": null,
      "index": 100,
      "n": 710664,
      "quartile": "Second quartile",
      "year": 2018
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 99.18,
      "conf_low": 97.97,
      "index": 98.56,
      "n": 700447,
      "quartile": "Second quartile",
      "year": 2019
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 96.58,
      "conf_low": 94.4,
      "index": 95.43,
      "n": 678194,
      "quartile": "Second quartile",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 99.46,
      "conf_low": 95.68,
      "index": 97.54,
      "n": 693209,
      "quartile": "Second quartile",
      "year": 2021
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 100.92,
      "conf_low": 95.9,
      "index": 98.47,
      "n": 699762,
      "quartile": "Second quartile",
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 99.12,
      "conf_low": 93.81,
      "index": 96.4,
      "n": 685072,
      "quartile": "Second quartile",
      "year": 2023
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 100.58,
      "conf_low": 94.7,
      "index": 97.44,
      "n": 692445,
      "quartile": "Second quartile",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": null,
      "conf_low": null,
      "index": 100,
      "n": 630186,
      "quartile": "Third quartile",
      "year": 2018
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 99.75,
      "conf_low": 98.96,
      "index": 99.31,
      "n": 625862,
      "quartile": "Third quartile",
      "year": 2019
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 96.79,
      "conf_low": 95.72,
      "index": 96.2,
      "n": 606252,
      "quartile": "Third quartile",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 98.35,
      "conf_low": 96.2,
      "index": 97.14,
      "n": 612146,
      "quartile": "Third quartile",
      "year": 2021
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 98.9,
      "conf_low": 96.93,
      "index": 97.88,
      "n": 616853,
      "quartile": "Third quartile",
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 97.59,
      "conf_low": 95.05,
      "index": 96.34,
      "n": 607127,
      "quartile": "Third quartile",
      "year": 2023
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 98.42,
      "conf_low": 95.52,
      "index": 96.86,
      "n": 610399,
      "quartile": "Third quartile",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": null,
      "conf_low": null,
      "index": 100,
      "n": 455129,
      "quartile": "Most deprived quartile",
      "year": 2018
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 99.76,
      "conf_low": 98.9,
      "index": 99.34,
      "n": 452106,
      "quartile": "Most deprived quartile",
      "year": 2019
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 96.26,
      "conf_low": 95.35,
      "index": 95.8,
      "n": 436005,
      "quartile": "Most deprived quartile",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 96.17,
      "conf_low": 94.8,
      "index": 95.48,
      "n": 434575,
      "quartile": "Most deprived quartile",
      "year": 2021
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 96.14,
      "conf_low": 93.99,
      "index": 95.09,
      "n": 432773,
      "quartile": "Most deprived quartile",
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 94.09,
      "conf_low": 91.59,
      "index": 92.86,
      "n": 422652,
      "quartile": "Most deprived quartile",
      "year": 2023
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 94.2,
      "conf_low": 91.23,
      "index": 92.7,
      "n": 421915,
      "quartile": "Most deprived quartile",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "births_by_deprivation",
  "notes": [
    "The named counties are the {fact:counties_used} that CDC WONDER natality identifies in every year from 2018 to 2024: counties with {fact:wonder_threshold} or more residents in the population vintage WONDER uses, which is earlier than the 2020 Census. WONDER pools the births of every other county in a state into one row, so those counties are not in the named counties.",
    "A tract's Area Deprivation Index national rank (1 is least deprived, 100 most) is the unweighted mean of the ranks of its block groups. A county's deprivation rank is the mean of its tracts' ranks weighted by 2019-2023 tract population. Quartiles hold equal numbers of the named counties, so the most deprived quartile is relative to large counties and not to the nation. The index is a measure of neighborhoods, averaged to counties.",
    "Intervals are 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties (replicates and seed in the methods note). Births are full counts, so an interval shows how much a pooled figure depends on which counties are in the group, not sampling error in the counts. The 2018 point is the base and has no interval."
  ],
  "source": "CDC WONDER natality, births in 2018-2024; full counts of births; counties grouped by Area Deprivation Index 2023 with ACS 2019-2023 tract population (population-weighted); pooled over counties by births (births-weighted); intervals from a bootstrap over counties",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "label": "2018 level",
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 100
      }
    ],
    "colors": {
      "Least deprived quartile": "cat6",
      "Most deprived quartile": "cat5",
      "Second quartile": "cat4",
      "Third quartile": "cat7"
    },
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "series": "quartile",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      2018,
      2024
    ],
    "xLabel": "Year of birth",
    "xTicks": "data",
    "y": "index",
    "yDomain": [
      86,
      102
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "yLabel": "Births, 2018 = 100"
  },
  "subtitle": "Pooled live births in each quartile of the {fact:counties_used} named counties by Area Deprivation Index rank, indexed to 2018 = 100, 2018 to 2024, with 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties",
  "title": "Births in 2024 were below 2018 in all four quartiles of counties, by {fact:decline_q1} in the least deprived and {fact:decline_q4} in the most deprived, and in 2021 the other three quartiles rose by more than the most deprived",
  "type": "line",
  "width": "wide"
}